Tag Archive for: David Pipe

Price Movement in NH Racing Markets

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In a recent article I compared the Early Morning Odds of horses (EMO) with their Opening Show odds (OS) and their final Industry Starting Price (SP) for UK Flat racing, writes Dave Renham. In this piece I will revisit the idea but the focus now is on UK National Hunt racing. Data has been taken from 1st January 2021 to 30th September 2024. How similar will the patterns be? Let’s take a look...

Strike rates by market movement profile

To begin with let's make the process easier by using abbreviations for the different price movements. So, for horses that shorten in price I will use the abbreviation ‘S’; for horses that remain the same price I will use ‘R’; for those that drift in price (lengthen) I will use the abbreviation ‘D’.

There are nine possible combinations in terms of price movement within these two timeframes (EMO to OS, and OS to SP). Below is a graph showing the percentage of runners for each price movement combination.

 

 

As you would expect the bar chart is similar to that which we saw when analysing flat data. The D/D group made up roughly a quarter of all runners and is comfortably the most likely pattern to be seen of the nine.

Performance Metrics by market movement profile

Now that we know how likely each combination is to occur we can examine the combinations in more detail by breaking down their performance in terms of strike rate, profitability, ROI% and A/E indices:

 

 

Two of the three combinations where a drift occurred between EMO and SP, D/D and R/D, produced by far the worst figures across all the metrics (SR%, ROI% and A/E indices). In fact, both combos would have lost you significant money if betting to BSP. The D/D group would have lost you 13p in the £, the R/D group lost a whopping 22p in the £. To put this into perspective if you simply backed all NH runners in every race over this time frame you would have lost just under 6p in the £ betting to Betfair SP.

Shorten / Shorten (S/S) Runners

The best figures came from the horses that shortened in price in both time frames – the S/S group. It makes sense to explore the S/S group in more detail given they have produced the best overall performance. I want to start by breaking the S/S results down by National Hunt Race Type. I will look at A/E indices first:

 

 

As can be seen the figures for chases and hurdles are virtually identical, but there is a steep drop off down to the A/E index for NH Flat races (also called bumpers). On to the Return on Investment percentages (ROI%) now to see what they show. The ROI%s are based onto Industry Starting Price returns:

 

 

There is positive correlation between the A/E indices and the ROI% figures at SP, with losses far greater for NH Flat runners who have the S/S profile. This is reflected at Betfair SP, too, with chase and hurdle qualifiers losing 4p in the £, NH Flat qualifiers more than 11p from every pound. Why this is the case is probably because NH Flat races tend to be made up of relatively unexposed horses. Hence, some horses will be supported in the betting based on what they might have shown away from the racetrack. Others will be backed solely due the trainer or the owner rather than the form or inherent ability of the individual horse in question. Hence punters and bookmakers are not always able to base their opinion on cold hard facts in these bumper races.

Sticking with the S/S group let me share how well these runners have performed in terms of Class of Race. Here are the full splits (there were only a handful of Class 6 events, hence they have been lumped together with the Class 5 stats):

 

 

The figures suggest that the S/S group has performed less well at either end of the class spectrum. Qualifiers from both Classes 2 and 3 made blind profits to BSP which is perhaps no surprise given their high A/E indices.

If we focus on the Class 1 races and look at the subset of Grade 1 to Grade 3 races the figures for the S/S group are poor – 66 wins from 511 qualifiers (SR 12.9%) for a loss to SP of £155.56 (ROI –30.4%). The A/E index stands at a lowly 0.75 and even to BSP losses were steep at £137.59 (ROI –26.9%). Horses that are constantly backed through the day, and then again late on, do not look the safest betting propositions in these Graded contests.

My next port of call was to look at the A/E indices of the S/S group of runners in terms of what odds they were priced up first in the morning – their ‘EMO’. Here is a graphical representation of those data:

 

 

Essentially this data is telling us that the for the S/S group the shorter the price the better in terms of ‘value’. The 17.0 to 23.0 and the 26.0+ groups are slightly out of kilter, but overall, it looks like horses priced 4.5 (7/2) or shorter early doors are the ones to focus on. Indeed, backing all horses from this shorter price EMO subset (1.01–4.5) would have lost you only 1p for every £1 staked to BSP.

Price movement by trainer

I want now to examine some trainer data, starting with horses that shortened in price from EMO to OS, i.e. the S/S, S/R and S/D groups. To begin with I would like to share some trainers with percentage of runners split for each of these groups. These are the handlers with the highest percentage of runners that match the S/S profile, listed along with the S/R and S/D percentages also:

 

 

Melanie Rowley tops the list with nearly 49% of her runners that shortened between EMO and OS continuing to shorten from OS to SP. To give some context the average percentage of runners’ figure for ALL trainers for the S/S profile is 35%. However, in Rowley's case, it did not lead to a profitable outcome; in fact, quite the opposite – one would have lost 44p in the £ backing all her S/S runners to SP; and it was still a 40p in the £ loss to BSP.

Profitable S/S trainers

There were, however, six trainers in the list who did make a profit to SP with these well-backed runners. The six were Henry Daly, Ben Pauling, David Pipe, Sandy Thomson, Tim Vaughan and Mark Walford. Below is a table containing all trainers who made blind profits with their S/S group of runners, listed alphabetically:

 

 

If only we could have predicted which of their horses were going to have the S/S pattern, then we could have backed them at their Early Price and made even more impressive profits. Nevertheless, none of the trainers in the above list had winners at huge prices that skewed their bottom lines so they look a group who know when they've got a live one.

A dozen trainers made a blind profit including one of the most powerful stables in the country, that of Paul Nicholls. When the Ditcheat yard's horses have shortened from EMO to OS and again from OS to SP, they have produced an outstanding strike rate of over 35% and returned more 8p in the £ profit. What is interesting is that only 28% of the Nicholls runners that shortened in price between EMO and OS then continued to shorten to SP, whereas 48% of them drifted in that final period. It is also interesting that this subset of runners (the S/D group) also performed well with 123 going on to win from 401 runners (SR 30.7%) for an SP profit of £25.57 (ROI +6.4%). To BSP this improves to +£62.65 (ROI +15.6%).

Overall, you could have made a healthy profit to BSP by simply backing ALL Nicholls runners that had shortened in price from EMO to OS.

D/D Trainers

It is time now to briefly look at some D/D data for trainers. I want to focus on horses that had Early Morning Odds of 10.00 (9/1) or shorter to avoid skewed results due to big–priced winners. Obviously, the strike rates of trainers with horses that drift from EMO to OS and then continue to drift to SP are not going to be that impressive. Below is a table of the top 15 trainers with the D/D profile in terms of strike rate:

 

 

No surprise that only three trainers have made a profit to SP, but that figure rises to nine at BSP. Of the trainers in that table, Paul Nicholls has seen significant losses with his D/D runners. They look worth swerving.

At the other end of the scale here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates from their D/D runners with their EMO 10.00 (9/1) or shorter:

 

 

It would make sense with this group of trainers to, unless you are a layer, ignore their horses if they have drifted from EMO to OS and are starting to drift again from their OS price as we near the ‘off’.

For the record horses priced up early at 10.00 (9/1) or bigger that show the D/D profile have won just 1.6% of their races (228 wins from 14220 qualifiers) for losses to SP of £6949 (ROI –48.5%). Losses are obviously less steep when looking at BSP returns but losses are still over 21% (21p in the £).

Finally, let me share one significant stat from the most influential NH owner, JP McManus. When his runners are popular in the market and show the S/S profile they have secured a 29% strike rate and returns of 6p in the £ to SP. His runners showing the D/D profile, however, perform poorly hitting a strike rate of 8.7% with SP losses of 30p in the £.

Market Movement is an integral part of the betting picture and I hope this article has provided some useful pointers for the National Hunt season which is just about to click into top gear.

- DR

Racing Systems: NH Trainer Angles

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When Matt sent a survey out to Geegeez members in January he got some interesting and refreshing responses, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will combine trainer angles with system research, two areas that surveyed members wanted to see more of.

A system based approach using trainer data / patterns is a tried and tested formula which has long been very popular with many punters. Indeed, in the first article of this series I shared a John Gosden system that had been successful on the flat in recent years. In this article my focus is going to be on National Hunt racing where I'll be looking for profitable trainer systems within this sphere.

I am going to look over the long term studying UK racing trainer data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021. If trainers have proved profitable over such a long time frame then we have a potential system to use. From there, though, we may need to drill down further to try and determine the likelihood of an angle continuing to perform well. Of course we cannot know what the future will bring results wise and, as all of us are aware, past results may not be replicated in the future. So, with those messages in place, let’s start:

Rebecca Curtis – ‘Close’ season system

Rebecca Curtis started training in 2008 and quickly established herself as a trainer to keep a close eye on. In 2012 she had 47 winners from 189 runners which equates to a strike rate of 24.9%. Also in 2012 she had the first of her five Cheltenham Festival winners when Teaforthree won the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase. Everything continued smoothly until 2017 when she split from her bloodstock agent, Gearoid Costelloe. That year she struggled, mainly due to losing roughly 50% of her horses. By 2019 she was back on track hitting a yearly win strike rate of 26.4%, but since Covid in March 2020 the performances from the stable have dipped again.

However, despite the more recent ups and downs, Curtis has continued to produce the goods in the warmer months. Focusing on May to August, the Pembroke-based handler has been consistently impressive all the way back to 2009. So our first trainer system to look at reads:

  1. Trainer Rebecca Curtis
  2. National Hunt UK racing – May 1st to August 31st

These are the annual strike rates for this micro angle:

 

 

At first glance the chart line may look a little volatile but the strike rate has exceeded 20% in all bar two years (2009 and 2016). It should also be noted that she had no runners in 2020 (due to the pandemic). Even last year, when she had a very modest overall 12 months, she still managed a strike rate of 29.4% making profits to BSP of £23.05 to £1 level stakes (ROI +135.6%).

From 2009 to 2021 the overall system results were:

 

 

A highly impressive bottom line and we know the strike rates have been decent year in, year out – so let’s look at the annual BSP profit figures:

 

 

Overall, then, it's nine winning years and only three losing ones, which is pleasing to see – consistency is something that we should all look for in systems.

Breaking the data down like this does highlight that 2016 must have had a huge priced winner or two. In fact it was a just one winner that after Betfair commission would have paid a remarkable 155/1. Thus, the original bottom line of +£220 to £1 level stakes does not look quite as impressive now. It is important to realise that big priced winners can skew results markedly and potentially turn a system on its head. Using Query Tool, the A/E metric will help here, and this - along with other metrics used extensively on geegeez.co.uk - is explained in more detail in this post.

All things being out in the open now, I would still hope this system has potential for the future. Even without that huge priced winner the figures remain solid. My biggest concern in reality is whether Rebecca Curtis will have the ammunition to produce such positive results in the future, but of course nobody can answer this.

There are other options for those who want to narrow the system down further, though - as we saw in my second article in this series - basic is generally best.

That said, if you had focused only on Curtis runners that started clear favourite you would have witnessed 47 winners from 78 runners giving an exceptional strike rate of 60.3%. They have naturally proved extremely profitable securing profits of £35.33 at BSP to £1 level stakes (ROI +45.3%). These market leaders also produced profits in all but one year. Adapting the system to focus just on favourites may be a way to go for some of you. (For the record, Ms Curtis has also saddled six qualifying joint-favourites, two of which won, giving a small profit also).

Before moving on, it is interesting to note that Peter Bowen, a trainer Curtis worked for prior to securing her own license, also has a good long-term record with his runners in the ‘close’ season. His overall performance from 2009 in the months of May to August reads:

 

 

Like Curtis, one big-priced winner in 2018 (220/1 after commission) has clearly helped. However, even removing that winner from Bowen's figures, the overall bottom line still looks rosy. I am more circumspect about Bowen, though, because if you take out that big priced winner and look at the more recent years 2014 to 2021, he has only made a small profit. Further, in 2020, he had just one winner from 63 starters! Now, of course, Covid really impacted the 2020 season for many, so that may just be a blip, but it is/was a big blip.

 

Paul Nicholls – Claiming jockeys in hurdle races

Paul Nicholls has been one of the top National Hunt trainers since the turn of the century but making profits from his runners is easier said than done. Top trainers are by definition unable to fly under the radar and finding value can be tricky. However, one area where Nicholls has performed relatively well is with horses ridden by claiming jockeys. Since 2009, Nicholls has used claiming jockeys on 1513 horses, of which 308 have won (SR 20.4%). Backing all these runners would have shown a loss to BSP but only £15.98 which equates to just a penny in every pound wagered. Compare this to his runners ridden by professional jockeys which would have lost £243.95, equivalent to losing 4p in the £.

Thus, claiming jockeys look a potential route to profits. Here is the system I have come up with:

  1. Trainer Paul Nicholls
  2. Hurdle races
  3. Horse ridden by claiming jockey
  4. Jockey has ridden the horse before

I chose hurdle races simply because there ought to be less chance of an inexperienced jockey falling. In addition I felt that if the jockey had ridden the horse before it would probably be a plus given these riders' general greenness. Again, I have very few rules in the system which hopefully avoids the dreaded back-fitting issue. The overall results from ’09 - ‘21 are in the positive range:

 

 

A strike rate of just over one in four and returns of 27p in the £ is a really good outcome. Let’s see how consistent the system would have been by looking at the annual strike rates first:

 

 

For this type of system we are more likely to see a volatile strike rate year to year but, as can also be seen, the figures have been stronger in recent years. Six of the past eight seasons have seen a strike rate in excess of 29%.

All well and good, but what of the bottom line? Below, we are looking at BSP profit to £1 level stakes. Looking at ROI% would be far too volatile due to sample size.

 

 

There have been nine winning years and four losing ones; but, since 2013, that reads eight winning years and only one losing year. The overall placed percentages are slightly above what I would expect which offers a further layer of confidence.

Sticking my neck out here, I would expect this system to prove profitable over the next five years, assuming nothing changes drastically within the Nicholls set up. The system has been relatively consistent with a decent overall strike rate; the trainer is one of the best in the business and the system has not been skewed due to big priced winners.

 

Venetia Williams – Chasers coming off a break

Venetia Williams has consistently been more successful with her chasers compared to her hurdlers over the years. Her overall strike rate in chases going back to 2009 stands at just under 16%; in hurdle races this drops to around 12%. In addition to this, for years now I have noticed that Ms Williams' horses seem to be fit regardless of how long they have been off the track. Hence I have devised a system that can take advantage of this. The rules are:

  1. Trainer Venetia Williams
  2. Chases
  3. Horse off track for five months (150 days) or more

I have chosen five months or more because that is roughly the break between the official end of the NH season in late April/early May and when the next season starts to get into full swing around late September/early October. [For the record, if I had chosen six months instead the figures would be very similar]

In terms of days therefore the five months equates to a break of more than 150 days. The overall results from 2009 look strong:

 

 

The yearly results are consistent, too – nine winning years, three losing ones and one that broke even. Indeed, two of the three losing years occurred in 2009 and 2011 so, since 2012, there has been just one year producing negative returns.

More positives can be found when we examine the prices of the winners. The pie chart below breaks down the 87 winners into Betfair SP price brackets.

 

 

As is shown, the vast majority of winning prices were at the shorter end of the market. 23 winners were 4.00 (3/1) or lower, while 60 were 10.00 (9/1) or lower. Just five winners were bigger than 20.00 BSP (19/1), and the two biggest priced winners were both under 40/1 BSP. This again helps explain why results have been consistent over the years.

Runners off a long layoff is an underused pattern for some punters. However, there are some trainers, like Venetia Williams, who are able to make a break more of a positive than a negative. It is interesting to note that Ms Williams has made profits at all distance ranges as the table below shows:

 

 

Strike rates are similar across the board, but the biggest returns by far have been in the longest distance races (3 miles or more), returning nearly 88p profit for every £1 bet. Yes, the strike rate has been marginally higher in that group, but I think this is more an example of punter bias. I think many punters are put off backing horses that are running at long distances after a decent length break. Their thinking, (which is logical), is that they surely won’t be fit enough to be competitive in a really long contest. Hence the prices available become slightly higher than they should be due to that lack of betting interest. Venetia Williams is clearly adept at getting horses fit and that gives us betting opportunities that represent value.

 

Other potential system ideas to look into further

I have looked above in some detail at three potential systems that I think could and should continue to be profitable for the next few years. To finish, I want to share four more potential systems that you, the reader, might want to use, or indeed to dig around a little deeper:

 

Anthony Honeyball – Lower Class races

Anthony Honeyball, whose yard is sponsored by geegeez.co.uk, is a trainer that has performed extremely well in lower grade races in recent years. Focusing on class 5 or 6 races only, Honeyball has secured a strike rate of 23.5% (105 wins from 446 qualifiers) showing a profit to £1 level stakes of £148.14 which equates to returns of 33p in the £. There were eight winning years out of 13, while ten of the 13 seasons saw a strike rate of 20% or more.

 

Nicky Henderson – Debutants in hurdle races

Henderson is one of the best in the business and before sharing the system, if you haven’t done so already please check out Matt’s excellent trainer profile article he wrote on him.

Henderson has produced decent profits since 2009 with horses making their debut in a hurdle race: 78 winners from 201 runners (SR 38.8%) is remarkable. BSP profits stand at £94.49 to £1 level stakes (ROI +47.0%), and eight of the last ten years have shown a profit.

In particular, keep an eye on the shorter priced runners: horses which were sent off at 3.5 (5/2) or less on Betfair have produced 53 winners from 83 runners (SR 63.9%) for a profit of £30.71 (ROI +37.0%).

 

David Pipe – winners returning within 10 days

David’s father Martin was one of the first trainers to realise that National Hunt horses could return to the track after a very short break and perform well. David has continued to some extent in his father’s footsteps, certainly in terms of success, although not perhaps in volume of runners. When David Pipe winners return to the track within 10 days, their strike rate has been close to 40% with returns of around 31p in the £. There have been ten winning years from 13, but in recent years qualifiers per season have been in single figures. Hence this system will not make you fortunes, but when a runner crops up it commands close scrutiny.

If you want to increase the number of runners, Pipe’s record with winners returning to the track within 20 days is decent also.

 

Gordon Elliott – handicap hurdle races

Gordon Elliott is a trainer who has excelled in handicap hurdle races since 2009. He has saddled 93 winners from 459 runners (SR 20.3%) showing a BSP profit of £167.99 (ROI +36.6%). A couple of biggish priced winners have made up roughly half of these profits, but it is interesting to note his record if we ignore any horse priced greater than 20.0 (Betfair price).

Doing so means the figures are not hugely skewed in any way. Focusing on these runners (shorter than 20.0) sees Elliott's record read 89 wins from 374 (SR 23.8%) for a profit of £108.59 (ROI +29.4%). That is comprised of nine winning years out of 13 with three of the losing years producing extremely small losses.

It is worth noting that Elliott's record in Ireland in handicap hurdles is much poorer. As an aside, and maybe a point worth further research, the vast majority of his handicap hurdlers in the UK ran in Ireland last time.

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I hope you have enjoyed this article and fingers crossed the systems shared will continue in the same profitable way. Nothing is guaranteed but I remain hopeful!

- DR

Monday Musings: Trying Times

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Suddenly it’s all back – for some of us anyway, writes Tony Stafford. Ice rinks – yes, I have to be aware of those! – football stadia and racecourses can now have participants and visitors, within strict limits of course. My mate Scott was able – after some manoeuvring – to take up his annual quest to Sandown Park for the Tingle Creek meeting.

He chose to get from deepest Essex (well Shenfield) to Esher by public transport and the hourly service from Waterloo was a bind as inevitably train times were synchronised not to gel with races. It was a proper full day’s excursion and not without its difficulties as well as cost.

It was £30 for his grandstand ticket and as someone who with his pals, especially at Cheltenham, his version of some people’s pilgrimage to Mecca or Lourdes, will normally sprinkle his race viewing with imbibing. The rules for alcohol consumption on racecourses just as in hostelries in tier 2 are equally as strict. “I fancied a pint,” relates Scott, “So I went to the food outlet where drinks can only be bought to accompany a meal. There was no lager on draught so for a pint it had to be two half-pint bottles at £5.20 each alongside pasty, chips, mushy peas and gravy for £8.50. Almost £20 a shot and if I’d wanted another pint it would have been same again, as I couldn’t have got them without a second meal.

“One friend, who went there on Friday, had three pints, so three lots of pasty, chips, mushy peas and gravy. I’m not sure if he made it back again on Saturday!” said Scott.

Winner-finding was difficult from the outset and, like many punters on the day, the pleasure of getting back racing had its less enjoyable moments. Scott can at least rest assured that his day would not have been anywhere near as frustrating as Nicky Henderson’s. The multi-champion trainer must have had misgivings when deciding to withdraw Altior from the big race the night before because of the testing ground, but he still went to the track with three short-priced favourites at Sandown as well as his Gold Cup hope Santini returning to action in a Grade 2 chase at Aintree.

Sandown’s litany of shocks started early. Pars in the Middleham Park colours was 7/4 on to defy the penalty earned by his debut win in a €15k Dieppe juvenile hurdle back in March, but was a well-beaten fourth behind three more French-breds, led home by Fergal O’Brien’s Elham Valley, who won readily.

Surely there were to be no mistakes in the next, a National Hunt novice hurdle in which Grand Mogul, twice a winner, faced three rivals, two of them newcomers, and started 2/11. Nico De Boinville had him in the first two from the start and he had seemed to have got the better of Pride of Pemberthy, the only one of the other trio to have raced previously, when the Gary Moore-trained Golden Boy Grey, another French-bred, suddenly arrived at the last galloping all over him. Golden Boy Grey went on to win by nine lengths in the style of a fair performer, whatever reasons could be found for the favourite’s tame acceptance of his fate from the last flight.

With no runner in the Tingle Creek, Nicky would have been able to switch his attentions to Aintree for Santini’s first appearance since going under by only a neck to repeat Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo back in March.

He did have a former God Cup winner in Native River to beat and in having a couple of lengths in hand of him was creditable enough first time back. Less easy to swallow must have been his failure to beat 16-1 shot Lake View Lad, ridden by champion Brian Hughes and trained in Scotland by Nick Alexander. Lake View Lad was receiving 6lb on Saturday and was 12lb wrong at the weights with the 172-rated favourite. The winner, a ten-year-old who carries the Trevor Hemmings colours, must inevitably come into focus for a Grand National challenge after this.

The National fences were in use twice on Saturday and seemed to be back to a much more formidable status in both the William Hill-sponsored Becher and Grand Sefton Handicap Chases. Henderson’s Might Bite, who was second in Native River’s 2017 Gold Cup, has only occasionally shown anything like that level since and he appeared to have a clear dislike of the obstacles which led to an early pulling up by Jeremiah McGrath. So it was left to Sandown’s finale, a valuable handicap hurdle, if Henderson was going to salvage a spot of consolation from a dreadful day.

The punters, including Scott by all accounts, went in with both feet on 6-4 shot Mister Coffee, an alarmingly-easy winner of his last race over course and distance a month earlier and raised 10lb for this tough handicap hurdle. His late run never looked like matching that of in-form Benson, who completed a hat-trick for himself and an across-the-card double for Dr Richard Newland. The doctor’s love affair with the Aintree fences had continued a few minutes earlier with the 20-1 success of Beau Bay under Charlie Hammond in the Grand Sefton.

The Sandown race had been shaped by the predictably-fast pace set in the early stages by Totterdown, twice a course and distance winner, but reckoned by the Fergal O’Brien stable to be at the limit of his handicap potential. His mark will need to come down, and two earlier tries this year over fences have not revealed a similar level of talent in that discipline.

That reverse did nothing to take the gloss off a memorable day for this stable. Just a year since he moved from his original premises rented from his former boss Nigel Twiston-Davies, O’Brien’s progress is such that he is needing to take temporary use of a 30-box barn at Graeme McPherson’s stables while development of his own base continues – “it’s like a muddy building site at the moment”, says Fergal’s assistant and partner, Sally Randell.

Earlier they were celebrating Elham Valley’s win, yet another example of how they improve horses from elsewhere. Beautifully-schooled for this debut, the 70-odd rated Flat performer came smoothly through under Paddy Brennan to bring the stable tally to 63 for the season. “That equals our best score set last year,” says Sally. With five months of the season to go, a first century must be in the offing, not wishing to jinx it, of course.

There can only have been one highlight of the day, though, the unchallenged victory of the David Pipe-trained Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher Chase over three and a quarter miles and 21 fences of the Grand National course. Now an 11-year-old, Vieux Lion Rouge won on his first try in the race four years ago, by which time he’d already run in the previous April’s Grand National won by Rule The World.

Opportunities for tackling Aintree’s National fences don’t come very often. It’s feasible, but very rare for a horse to run twice at a Grand National meeting, needing a run either in the Topham or Foxhunters as well as the big race. Back in 1977 Churchtown Boy won the Topham on the Thursday and then finished runner-up as Red Rum completed his third and final Grand National victory, to which he could add two second places in between the second and third wins.

Vieux Lion Rouge, owned by Professor Caroline Tisdall and John Gent, has run nine times around the Grand National course – it would have been ten without a break, no doubt, had the 2020 Grand National been run. Twice the big race has needed to have one of its 30 fences omitted for safety reasons, so Vieux Lion Rouge has navigated safely over an almost-unimaginable total of 223 fences without mishap. The one blemish on his safe jumping career was an unseat of Tom Scudamore three fences out one day at Chepstow when he was still in with a chance of winning. Two pulled ups also slightly mar his otherwise excellent completion record in all races.

Considering he must now be regarded as an Aintree specialist, the fact that he has won 11 of his 27 other races, between bumpers, hurdles and chases, as well as the two around the big fences, speaks volumes for his versatility, talent and the trainer’s skill. Tom Scudamore must have been livid to have been on the Pipe’s stable’s apparently better-fancied Ramses De Teillee on Saturday, a 13-2 shot against the 12-1 SP of the winner. That made it still only eight times in the gelding’s long career that Scudamore had not partnered him. That also included his first Grand National challenge back in 2016 when James Reveley was in the saddle. Tom has been on the gelding on all his other Aintree excursions.

For a few years I’d been thinking that Aintree had become relatively soft, something that the old timers regularly trot out. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, possibly with the testing ground contributing to the potential for errors and fatigue. That this old boy could canter round behind but in touch with a very strong field, go to the front easily by the second-last fence and draw 24 lengths clear up the run-in was a marvellous display and brilliant advertisement for the talents of David Pipe and of course a certain older member of the family who still keeps careful watch on events equine down in Somerset.

- TS