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Stat of the Day, 10th November 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.15 Chelmsford : Petite Jack @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 9/4 Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, hung left and no impression.

Next up is Friday's...

1.30 Fontwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady of Longstone @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 3m 2.5f on Good ground worth £2,274 to the winner.

David Pipe's horses are 4/15 over the last week, whilst here at Fontwell since 2008, he is 26/100 (26% SR) for 21.95pts (+21.95% ROI) with runners priced in the 6/4 to 7/1 range, of which...

  • handicappers are 13/55 (23.6%) for 12.25pts (+22.3%)
  • those racing beyond 2m6f are 10/31 (32.3%) for 16.45pts (+53.1%)
  • in November/December : 7/17 (41.2%) for 19.97pts (+117.5%)
  • those rested for just 10 days or less are 5/11 (45.5%) for 11.81pts (+107.4%)
  • and handicappers racing beyond 2m6f in November/December are 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.52 pts (+225.4%)

Plus, ithat same time frame, David Pipe's handicap hurdlers are 27/197 (13.7% SR) for 85.1pts (+43.2% ROI) when ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lady of Longstone @ 9/4 BOG which was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.15 Southwell : L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Keen, raced wide, close up, tracked leader 7f out, led over 4f out, ran on for a comfortable win by 7 lengths ahead of a well strung out field.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.05 Taunton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has acquitted himself well enough in two starts so far, finishing 3rd on debut in a bumper at Worcester back in June 2016, before becoming a runner-up at Ffos Las on heavy ground when making his hurdling debut three weeks ago.

That last run was on heavy ground,l so his stamina seems fine and it was also at a higher grade (C4) than today.  And to put that race into context, he was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the more experienced and 132-rated Robinshill, who last weekend suffered a defeat by a similar margin off 135 in a Class 2 contest at Sandown.

So, if the form pans out as I hope it will, trainer David Pipe will have another winner at Taunton, where since 2008, his 6 to 10 yr olds are 28/164 (17.1% SR) for 36.2pts (+22.1% ROI), including of note today...

  • males are 28/149 (18.8%) for 51.2pts (+34.4%)
  • hurdlers are 19/123 (15.5%) for 36.3pts (+29.5%)
  • those stepping in trip by more than 1f are 11/59 (18.6%) for 52.4pts (+88.8%)
  • and those racing over this 3m 0.5f trip are 7/26 (26.9%) for 64.1pts (+246.7%)

That stat about the step up in trip is no surprise really, as a quick look at the Trainer Snippets report tells us that over the last two years, the David Pipe runners stepping up in trip by more than 25% of the distance they last ran are 19/88 (21.6% SR) for 46.83pts (+53.2% ROI) at SP, figures which can easily be beaten by Betfair SP or BOG odds, which got me digging again!

And what I discovered what that David Pipe hurdlers stepping up in trip by 3.5f to 9f are 67/393 (17.1% SR) for 121.7pts (+31% ROI) since 2011, of which...

  • 6/7 yr olds are 30/152 (19.7%) for 168.8pts (+111.1%)
  • those racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 30/143 (21%) for 155.7pts (+108.9%)
  • and like Stay Out Of Court, 6/7 yr olds racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 18/67 (26.9% SR) for 154.9pts (+231.1% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Paddy Power and a half dozen others at 6.30pm on Tuesday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Sat TV Trends: 12th March 2016

The excitement is building for the week before the Cheltenham Festival, but before that, this Saturday the C4 cameras head to Sandown, with the Imperial Cup their feature race, plus they are also at Wolverhampton for two races that include the Lincoln Handicap Trial.

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

 

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)

2.00 – 30th European Breeders´ Fund "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f173y CH4

13/13 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Carried 10-11 or more
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Returned 8/1 or less in the betting
10/13 – Rated 128 or less
10/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Irish bred
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Aged 6 years-old
7/13 – Had won over this trip before
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Won by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Won by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/13 – Winning favourites
1/13 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

2.35 - Kings Mistral Handicap Chase Cl3 3m37y CH4

12/13 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
11/13 – Carried 11-1 or more
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences
10/13 -  Rated between 125-134
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Aged 8 or older
9/13 – Placed favourites
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
4/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

3.10 – Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y CH4

13/13 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
12/13 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Aged 6 or younger
10/13 – Rated 124 or higher
9/13 – Carried 10-7 or less
9/13 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
9/13 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
8/13 – Finished in the top two last time out
8/13 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
6/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – French bred
5/13 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/13 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
1/13 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 11/1

3.45 – EBF Stallions/TBA Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y CH4

12/12 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
11/12 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
9/12 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/12 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
8/12– Won last time out
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
1/12 – Winning favourites
Won 12 months ago by Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh

Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends (ATR/C4)

2.15 – Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y CH4

13/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Won over a mile before
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13– Won at least three times before
10/13 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
8/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Came from stall 9 or higher
6/13 – Aged 5 years-old
5/13 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/13 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

2.50 – Ladbrokes Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y CH4

8/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Had won over 7f before
8/9 – Had won at least 4 times before
6/9 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
6/9 – Rated 105 or higher
7/9 – Placed favourites
7/9 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
6/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
5/9 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
3/9 – Winning favourite
2/9 – Trained by Marco Botti
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1
Sovereign Debt won the race 12 months ago
Chookie Royale won the race in 2014

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Ludlow : Celtic Intrigue @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Tracked leader, led before 15th, headed 4 out, weakened before 2 ou)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Top Wood @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Firstly David Pipe's male handicappers are 23 from 125 (18.4% SR) for 39.7pts profit (+31.8% ROI) here at Taunton over the last eight years, which is clearly a positive.

Secondly and more generally, over the last five years, his male runners carrying 10-13 to 11-09 over trips of 2m4f to 3m2f are 159/776 (20.5%SR) for 191.2pts (+24.6% ROI), of which handicap races have yielded 101 winners from 568 (17.8% SR) for for 170pts (+29.9% ROI) profit.

Of the 568 handicappers, chasers are 50 from 234 (21.4% SR) for 754.8pts (+32.4% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • Class 2 to 5 : 46/175 (26.3% SR) for 99.1pts (+56.7% ROI)
  • Those rated (OR) below 140 are 47/174 (27% SR) for 108.4pts (+62.3% ROI)
  • On heavy ground : 7/25 (28% SR) for 8.4pts (+33.2% ROI)
  • Here at Taunton : 3/5 (60% SR) for 8.3pts (+166% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.35pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Top Wood and that's at 3/1 BOG with either Betfair, Boylesports, Hills, Seanie Mac and/or SkyBet, whilst Betfred / Totesport offer the same odds, but are non-BOG until morning. To see your preferred bookie's prices, you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Six Trainers and the Cheltenham Open Meeting

It's the first big meeting of the National Hunt season, hosted... at Cheltenham, where else?

Headlined by the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, the Open meeting runs over three days and offers trainers the chance to get some match practice in way ahead of the Festival next March. But which handlers have their team ready to go here, and which may be hanging fire for bigger battles down the line?

Looking at the handicaps at this meeting since 2010 - five years' worth of data - reveals some interesting performers... and under-performers. Let's start with those who command a second glance.

**

3 Open Meeting Trainers to Follow

 

David Pipe

David Pipe doesn't seem that much like his old man, Martin, who revolutionized the game a generation ago when he introduced interval training. He's more affable, more owner-focussed and, according to the record at least, less obsessed by winners. But not at Cheltenham and not in November.

Pipe Senior loved this meeting, and David is a chip off the old block in that regard at the very least. Indeed, since 2010, he's saddled ten handicap winners, from 52 runners, for a profit of 67.5 points at starting price. Moreover, he's peppered the target in that time, with 23 of his 52 runners making the frame.

One point to note is that the group included 40/1 hurdle winner, Home Run, which does rather skew the figures. Nevertheless, the overall profile demands focus.

Our Dave kicks the meeting off with La Vaticane, the favourite in the opening handicap chase, before saddling top weight, Baraka De Thaix (3rd in the G2 Triumph Hurdle Trial on this card a year ago) in the novices' handicap hurdle at 3.25, and latterly legging up the excellent value David Noonan in the amateurs' handicap chase that closes the card.

Noonan will be riding The Geegeez Geegee on Monday all other things being equal, and he's one of the best amateurs around.

Entries for later in the week are yet to be confirmed at this stage, so keep 'em peeled - a comment that applies to all entries in these lists if you're sufficiently moved to track their progress.

Philip Hobbs

Just me? Philips Hobbs and Wallace...

Just me? Philips Hobbs and Wallace...

Hobbs, the Minehead Maestro, has been in scintillating form in the early weeks of the season. In fact, he's been performing at a 25% clip over the past six months, which is phenomenal.

At this particular meeting, the perma-titfered Wallace lookalike has bagged a fairly unspectacular four handicap winners from 39 runners (10%), but has added another six placed horses to that tally (25%).

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In profitability terms, Hobbsy (as he's almost certainly known to nobody) has snaffled 15 points at SP and something closer to 40 at Betfair SP, courtesy of three nicely priced winners in the last two years.

Friday sees Allthekingshorses test the oppo for stable mate, Balthazar King, in the Cross Country Handicap Chase; Ink Master attempt to harness the power of the O-pen (certainly not the power of the pun after that crowbarred effort!) in the novices' handicap hurdle; and Return Spring bid for a return to the winners' enclosure at a meeting where he scored two years ago.

Neil Mulholland

Significantly lower profile than the first pair, Mulholland has had an affinity with Cheltenham since his Midnight Chase recorded a superb five wins at the track. Just five handicap starters since 2010 at this meeting have yielded form figures of 11002 and a profit of 12 units at SP.

He's represented by Minella Present, the type of progressive novice that does well here, in the opener; and may run Fingerontheswitch in the conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle on Sunday.

**

3 Open Meeting Trainers to Beware

 

Venetia Williams

The folly of nominating trainers with poor records off small sample sizes is franked repeatedly, so please don't go laying this trio for the mortgage. However, each has a far better record at the Festival in March than the Open Meeting in November, and that may be more than mere coincidence.

Venetia is in great form just now, with six winners in the last week. But her record in handicaps at this particular meeting is a lamentable zero from thirty. Or, as they say in the States, "o'fer" (as in O, or 0 more correctly, for x, where x is the number of losers!).

Worse still, La Williams has had just one horse from that score and ten hit the board, for a place lay profit of 25.05 units, according to horseracebase.com

8/1 chance, The Clock Leary, kicks V's 'cap team off in the opener, and she also saddles bottom weight, Eco Warrior, in the novices' handicap hurdle. Further possibles through the weekend include Rigadin de Beauchene and Bennys Mist on Saturday. Good luck if you like any of these - you may need it.

Jonjo O'Neill

Everyone knows about Jackdaws Jonjo's record at the Festival. But maybe not everyone knows how limited his success has been at the November gathering. He has actually had a pair of winners, which is two more than VW. But they've come at a cost of 26 losers, 24 of which were unplaced.

That equates to a place lay profit of 14.22 if Horseracebase.com's calculations are to be believed.

JP's trusted lieutenant is as wily as they come despite a demeanour of innocence presumably acquired from his little known convent days (not really), and there is usually another day for most of his beaten runners, such is the trainer's talent.

He won't trouble us during the first of the three sessions, but may have any of Upswing, Johns Spirit, Milan Bound, Fort Worth and Hedley Lamarr entered on Saturday; and Mad Jack Mytton and Don Padeja on Sunday.

Alan King

Alan King is another big gun who has hardly had the best of it in recent times at this particular fixture. Like Jonjo, he's managed to win two handicap races but, like Jonjo, they have come at the cost of fairly hefty collateral damage. Like Jonjo, he's managed but two further placed runners, this time from 26 saddled 'cappers since 2010.

The place lay kitty swelled by a satisfying 11.33 for those clairvoyant enough to envisage this half a decade ago. For the rest of us, there is a heavy note of caution in those data if tempted to side with a King runner, regardless of how things pan out this time around.

The Duke's apprentice (David Nicholson was his guv'nor when he was a mere best boy) has nothing for Chelters on day one, but a raft of possibles over the weekend, including Sego Success, Annacotty and Turn Over Sivola. Tread on eggshells. Eggshells I say...

**

So there you have it. A thousand words of trainer quack stats. Miniscule sample sizes mean the scope for looking daft seeps out of every one of the sextet. And yet it will come as no surprise whatsoever if the former group persistently trouble the judge, while the latter group trouble what's known affectionately in cycling as the broom wagon.

It's a deeply competitive three day affair, so good luck to all however you play. The season starts here!

Matt

p.s. If you're having a cut at the placepot there this afternoon, Mal Boyle's placepot pointers will surely assist...

p.p.s. I've just heard from the chaps at Cleeve Racing that they're offering a special discount for new subscribers this weekend. Cleeve has an unbroken six year record of National Hunt profit, and are already well in front this fledgling season (+£460 to £20 level stakes)

Use the below codes on the checkout page (where it says 'Have a coupon?') to claim your discount:

Full season membership - cleeve£40 (£199 reduced to £159)
One month trial - cleeve£15 (£40 to £25)

Here's the registration link - do take a look.

Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2015

Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2015

Marc Monaghan gave Kalon Brama a great ride at Chelmsford on Thursday evening on her bid to land a hat-trick. He kept her handy, just a couple of places off the lead poised to pounce.

When he got alongside the long-time leader with two furlongs to run, it was clear that we were in the box seat and it ended up being a pretty comfortable win in the end, as she scored by over two lengths at 2/1, a full point shorter than advised.

This means we're up and running for October and now we move away from the A/W for Friday's selection and it's jumps action on the figure of eight in the...

3.50 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Which is a Class 2, 2m 1.5f, handicap chase for 4yr olds and upwards on good ground, where I've just taken 3/1 BOG about David Pipe's 6yr old gelding Purple n Gold who seeks to continue a recent run of fine form.

In the last 30 days, Mr Pipe's runners have won 12 of their 42 races (28.6% SR) generating level stakes profits of 12.8pts (+30.5% ROI) in the process and the market is often a very good indicator of his runners' true chances. Of those 42 runners in the past month, 28 of them have gone off at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 producing 11 winners (39.3% SR) and 24.86pts (+88.8% ROI) profit.

David also has a good record in chases here around Fontwell's quirky figure of eight track, despite not sending many runners here. In fact, since 2008, there have been just 24 Pipe chasers at Fontwell, but 7 winners (29.2% SR) and 5.9pts (+24.6% ROI) profit are healthy returns.

Of those 24 chasers, there's a 5/17 (29.4% SR) record in handicaps yielding 4.68pts (+27.5% ROI) and at odds of 7/4 to 9/2 the chasers are 7 from 16 (43.8% SR) for 13.9pts (+86.9% ROI).

David Pipe's Fontwell handicap chasers priced at 7/4 to 9/2 are 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 12.68pts (+86.9% ROI) since 2008.

Purple n Gold possesses decent ground speed, having won 3 of 10 starts on the Flat, before proving his jumping prowess via three hurdles victories but his recent switch to the bigger obstacles has shown him in an even better light, winning two of three starts (finished 131) and now comes here up 6lbs in the ratings (OR) for a win last time out at Worcester a week ago.

He has, however, got a decent 7lb claimer (D Noonan) on his back and the jockey is quite highly rated in some quarters and not only has he ridden Purple n Gold to one win and one place from three outings, he has two wins and a runner-up finish over the Fontwell fences from three efforts, all for Anthony Honeyball, who doesn't employ mugs.

That win a week ago also puts this runner into another area that I keep an eye on with the Pipe string and basically you want a David Pipe handicapper aged 5 to 9 who won last time out in the past 7 days and has had at least one other run in the past three months. Such runners don't crop up too often (5 or 6 a year!), but 25 winners from 43 (58.1% SR) and profits of 51pts (+118.7% ROI) suggests they worth looking out for!

The odds quoted are widely available and I'm going with Bet365 for my 3/1 BOG bet, but for your preferred bookie's price, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 24th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th June 2015

I have to leave the house for a family commitment at 6pm on Tuesday evening, so I'm getting Wednesday's pick out, before I know Tuesday's result, but I'll add that in later.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Worcester:

A Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m 7f on good ground where Tom Scudamore will ride the in-form 7yr old mare, Weather Babe, for David Pipe.

The Pipe / Scudamore / Worcester has generated 11 winners from 31 runners (35.5% SR) for 21.1pts (+67.9% ROI) profit from those horses priced at 11/8 to 5/1, which is where we're most likely to be here.

From this, the handicappers are 6/12 (50% SR) for 12.9pts (+107.4% ROI), the hurdlers are 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 3.8pts (+25.5% ROI) and Class 3 runners are 2 from 4 for 3.6pts (+90.6% ROI).

Put together, the handicap hurdlers are 5/10 (50% SR) for 8.82 pts (+88.2% ROI) profit.

Weather Babe loos to be well suited by conditions here too. She's 5/13 over hurdles, of which she has a win and a third place here at Worcester and she's 3/9 on Good ground. The going might well change, as I'm typing this more than 22 hours before the race, so it's worth noting that she's 1 from 1 on good to soft if it rains and if the sun comes out , she has a win and a third from two good to firm runs.

She has won over 2m 7.5f in the past and stamina shouldn't be an issue for a horse that stays 3m3f (2nd at that trip LTO, 4 weeks ago). She's also 2 from under Tom Scudamore, 2 from 2 as race favourite and 4 from 6 when priced at 4/1 or shorter. She has finished 21312 in cheekpieces and finished third on her only prior effort over course and distance.

Weather Babe is in really good nick, having run second last time out after winning over this trip two starts ago despite coming off a break of 257 days. The drop back to this trip gives Weather Babe every opportunity of a third win in six outings at 11/4 BOG with Bet365.

To see what the other firms are offering...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2015

Yesterday I told you that following Dianne Sayer was a profitable exercise and she had two winners and two placers from 6 runners, as if to prove my point.

Unfortunately for this blog, Discoverie could only finish third ad was only beaten by a length, despite the market not fancying him (drifted from 7/2 to 11/2!). He was by no means disgraced, just losing out in a three way battle for the lead.

Friday is a busy day of racing and I turn my attentions to the...

4.50 Exeter:

Which is a Class 3 handicap chase over three miles on soft ground, where Tom Scudamore will ride David Pipe's 7/2 BOG rated Top Wood.

Trainer and jockey are in good nick...

In the last fortnight, David's runners have won 9 of their 28 outings, whilst Tom has successfully brought 8 of his 26 mounts back to the winners' enclosure. Tom's record on David's horses in the last fortnight is 7/17, which comes as no surprise, as we'll see shortly!

Back the Pipe chasers...

...and you will make money!

That's a bold claim, but it's one that stands up. Since the start of 2008, if you'd put £10 on each of 1334 chasers sent out by Mr Pipe, you would have had 220 winning bets to date. This excellent 16.5% strike rate would have netted you £1376 profit, giving you a return of 10.3% above all stakes invested. And that's from blind unfiltered backing.

There are many ways of breaking that 220/1334 stat down, but I'm just going to do five examples, based around today's selection Top Wood, who will be ridden by Tom Scudamore over 3 miles carrying 11-0 at the age of 8 off an OR of 130, so let's see how that pans out.

JOCKEY : Tom Scudamore is 135/719 (18.8% SR) for 166.8pts (+23.2% ROI) on the Pipe chasers.
DISTANCE : Over trips of 2m5.5f to 3m2.5f (ie 2.5f either side of 3m) : 117/637 (18.4% SR) for 221.1pts (+34.7% ROI)
WEIGHT : Carrying 10-8 to 11-4 : 104/549 (18.9% SR) for 147.3pts (+26.8% ROI)
AGE : 8/9 yr olds are 68/446 (15.3% SR) for 125.8pts (+28.2% ROI)
RATING : OR of 122 to 139 : 68/391 (17.4% SR) for 173.9pts (+44.5% ROI)

You can, of course, mix and match those to your heart's desire, but the more you mix, the smaller the sample size becomes. If you expand some of the categories slightly, you'll end up with a small microsystem that I'm happy for you take away with you, if that's your thing...

...Since the start of 2008, backing all David Pipe chasers ridden by Tom Scudamore over 2m5.5f to 3m2.5f carrying 10-12 to 11-11 at the ages 5 to 9 yrs old off an OR of 113 to 159 gives you 27 winners from 112 selections, a 24.1% strike rate bearing level stakes profits of 158.4pts at an ROI of 141.5%

The above micro has been giving around 25 bets per year over the last few years, so it's a nice little addition to any portfolio you might be building. It is in profit already for 2015 and has made a profit in 6 of the last 7 full years.

Top Wood, for his part, was winning a far better standard of race than this a year ago at Haydock over hurdles off today's mark and he was a winner on his chasing debut back in May. he unseated his rider next time out and was then rested (schooled, no doubt!) for 220 days before reappearing at Warwick six weeks ago.

He ran really well for the majority of that race at Warwick over hurdles off 136, with his challenge only fading late on over 3m2f and both the winner and the runner-up have gone on to win again since, the latter taking a grade 2 event.

Today's race represents a drop in class, a drop in trip and a mark 6lbs lower than that run. Top Wood could potentially be well in here and as such, is well worth a 1pt win bet at 7/2 BOG. This price is on offer in at least three places, but I'm on with Hills.

To see what your preferred layer is offering...

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Stat of the Day, 27th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2014

Here on SotD, we do say that if at first you don't succeed, you should try again and Harry Bannister's ride on Beau Lake on Boxing Day was the proof of this particular (Christmas?) pudding.

Harry made amends for last week's error of judgement by riding a perfectly timed run aboard Beau Lake at Fontwell. He bided his time, hit the front the late on and won by what looked a little bit more than the official neck verdict given. The distance, of course, is irrelevant, but it was a good race to watch and our advised 7/2 payout was half a point longer than the 3/1 SP.

A very curtailed week now comes to an end in Wales and the...

1.25 Chepstow:

A 12-runner, Class 2, handicap hurdle over 3 miles on soft ground where David Pipe's 3/1 BOG Katkeau carries 11-10 off a mark of 132 in race in which he looks the class act coming down markedly in grade.

David Pipe excels at these mid/long trips...

By mid/long trips, I refer to all races ranging from 2m 5f to 3m 2.5f in Mr Pipe's case because, quite simply, he has lots of runners (200+ per year) at these trips and it's actually profitable to just back them all!

Sine the start of 2008, his record over this spread of race distances is 232 winners from 1458 (15.9% SR) runners, which is a pretty fantastic strike rate considering the sheer volume of qualifiers. Now a £20 bet on each might well have set you back a fair bit in stake money, but level stakes profits of just over £7500 would equate to a 25.7% return on your money.

In handicap hurdle events that record is 78/569 (13.7% SR) for 197.6pts (+34.7% ROI) profit, from which we can drive the following in relation to today's selection...

Those with an OR of 120 to 138 : 26/230 (11.3% SR) for 89.5pts (38.9% ROI)
Carrying 11-1 to 12-0 : 51/357 (14.3% SR) for 175.5pts (+49.2% ROI)
On soft ground : 24/107 (22.4% SR) for 119.3pts (+104.6% ROI)

All of the above point to a big run from Katkeau and also help create a very restrictive niche micro system, that's a little too narrow for SotD purposes, but use it if you like...David Pipe / Hcp hurdlers / on soft / OR 117-143 / carrying 11-3 to 11-11 : these are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 64.7pts (+308.1% ROI) in the last 4 years!

What about the Pipe runners here at Chepstow?

Well, it probably won't come as a surprise to find out he does rather well. Since 2009, he has had 29 winners from 123 runners (23.6% SR) here, which have generated level stakes profits of 69.8pt at an ROI of 56.7%. We can then drill down onto this set of 123 runners as follows...

Handicappers : 18/80 (22.5% SR) for 42pts (+52.5% ROI)
Hurdlers : 21/71 (29.6% SR) for 78.6pts (+110.7% ROI)
Running over 2.5 to 3 miles inclusive : 22/71 (31% SR) for 88.7pts (+124.9% ROI)

All three subsets are very impressive indeed and provide great results when more than one factor is present, but when David's handicap hurdlers run here over 2m 4f to 3 miles, they have a 10/34 (29.4% SR) record that has produced levels takes profits of 38.9pts (+114.3% ROI).

Of those 34 runners, those rated at 112 or above are 9/25 (36% SR) for 46.1pts (+184.2% ROI), and 18 of these 25 runner were carrying 11-2 or more with 7 winners providing a 38.9% strike rate, 43.3pts profit and an ROI of 240.4%, but his last step is also a fairly niche area as before.

And the horse himself?

Well, for a 7 yr old, Katkeau is very lightly raced in the UK and therefore unexposed after just five outings since coming over from France where he had shown some decent form. Three of his five runs in this country have been at a higher level than this, including his win in a Listed event over 3m 1.5f on soft ground at Cheltenham six weeks and two starts ago.

He then ran again a week later in a grade 3 contest at Haydock and wasn't disgraced in finishing fifth behind some bigger names in a race that might have come too quickly for him, considering the Cheltenham run was his first for 630 days!

He has now had five week's rest and if running to his abilities, this is his race to lose and he might well go off as a fairly short favourite, so I'm advising you to get on early and place a 1pt win bet at 3/1 BOG on Katkeau today. This price is very widely available, so you should all get on without problems.

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Stat of the Day, 29th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th November 2014

Comeonginger didn't seem to enjoy conditions underfoot at Newbury on Friday, where the course rode more like heavy than soft. So much so, that the official going added heavy in places later in the day.

As it was, our runner toiled away and could have been forgiven for throwing the towel in, but jockey Trevor Whelan did everything he could to keep the horses going and despite a couple of poor jumps late on, managed to complete in third place at the same 3/1 advice we'd given.

November is always a tough month, that's why I take a holiday for part of it! But this November has proved very difficult indeed and I'm actually pretty pleased to enter the last SotD of the month just 2.8pts in arrears.

I know we all want to make profit and I'm certainly trying my best, but betting is cyclical and SotD makes money long-term, so we just need a little patience sometimes.

That said, I do have one last throw of the dice for November and a winner would see us wipe our faces, of course. So, that last shot of the month will come in the...

1.30 Bangor:

Where I've got this nagging feeling that Vif Argent is over priced at the 5/1 BOG currently on offer from Bet365.

His trainer, David Pipe is in blistering form at present and his last 14 days of racing have seen him clock up an impressive 13 winners from just 52 runners, with even better figures of 5 from 18 in the last week alone, including a nice 10/1 winner at Newbury yesterday, so they're not all short priced jollies.

It's also very interesting to see Vif Argent entered here, as David rarely sends chasers up to North Wales and since the start of 2009, this one will be just David's 12th chaser to grace the Bangor-on-Dee turf. Mr Pipe has forgotten more about this game than I'll ever learn, so he must have reasons for being a stranger in these parts, perhaps it's the weather?

I only mention this, because 5 of the previous 11 (45.5% SR) chasers here at Bangor were winners and they generated 13.7pts at an ROI of 124.6%. All five winners were priced at 15/2 or shorter, where the record reads 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 16.7pts (+208.8% ROI).

David's got a claimer jockey, Michael Heard, on board today and the yard does well when using these claimers and in the last four years their record with claimer jockeys on handicap chasers is 26 winners from 166 (15.7% SR) for 57.4pts (+34.6% ROI) profit.

Once again, the best results are obtained with those running at 15/2 or shorter where 20 of 74 (27% SR) runners were victorious, producing profits of 28.7pts (+38.8% ROI). Those jockeys, like Michael today, who were claiming 7lbs, won 6 races from 24 (25% SR) for 8.8pts at a healthy ROI of 36.6%.

I also like to keep an eye out for Mr Pipe's male chasers running over what I term mid-range contests and  more specifically those running in races of 2m5f to 3m2f and carrying 10 stone 8lbs or more. If you backed every such runner over the last 7yrs that was priced in the 5/2 to 9/1 price range, you'd have made a profit every single year and you'd have found yourself 112 winners from 601 runners (18.6% SR).

Here at Geegeez, we review plenty of commercial systems and we declare results to a £10 level stake, so if we apply that to the above, you'd have wagered just over £6,000 in seven years (it's only £70 a week if you break it down! 😀 ) , but your profits would now stand at £1501, a handsome 25% return on your money.

As for today, in particular,Vif Argent has won two of his six outings this year and was a runner-up once too. The going at Bangor today is said to be soft (heavy in places), it won't get better than soft today, but it might well get heavy and this would be fine for our runner. He won his only race on soft ground to date and he has one win from two starts on heavy . He's by Dom Alco, whose offspring have a great record over fences and also in the mud and our pick is very much at home in these smaller fields with a record of 112 in races of 7 runners or less.

And that's how I'm closing out the month, with a 1pt win bet on Vif Argent (quicksilver in French!) at 5/1 BOG with Bet365. Other bookies are offering a range from 7/2 to 9/2 and the latter of those prices still wouldn't be a bad bet in my opinion Your preferred bookies' price can be found when you...

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Stat of the Day, 9th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2014

A good day for Team Skelton and SotD on Wednesday, as What A Warrior ran out a convincing winner. Whether he was tiring, idling, being lonely or lazy late on is open to debate, his jockey might have just been sparing him for another day. Nevertheless he kicked for home off the final bend and may well have opened up a lead of up to 20 lengths, before eventually winning by 10!

It was a great yard debut for him and he was returned as the 7/4 favourite, having been well backed in from our advised 11/4 BOG. Devon awaits us next and the...

2.20 Exeter:

Where David Pipe turns the 4/1 BOG Bathwick Man out quickly again, aiming to take advantage of the good run of recent form from this 9 yr old. He last raced a week ago, when third (beaten by just 2L over a longer trip) at Warwick and this will be his fifth run in the last eight weeks with a run of form reading 2213 in that time.

With a run just a week ago and also having been seen at least twice in the last three months makes him what Matt likes to call a Hard Fit runner. We're basically looking for a horse fitting the following bill:

Aged 6-9 yrs old / last ran within 7 days / at least 2 other runs in the previous 3 months.

And since 2009 there has been literally thousands of qualifiers and a near 1-in-6 strike rate, but I'm going to be a little more specific here. In handicap hurdle contests, the figures read as 391 winners from 2579 runners (I told you there were plenty!); a strike rate of 15.2% generating a massive 1010.2pts profit at an incredible ROI of 39.2%.

Those dropping in trip, as Bathwick Man does here have won 105 of 644 (16.3% SR) contests for level stakes profits of 766.1pts (+119% ROI), whilst those who finished 2nd. 3rd or 4th last time out, went on to win 152 of 808 (18.8% SR) races for 253.2pts (+28.9% ROI) profit.

From those 808 who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO, 225 were beaten by just two lengths or less last time out and 66 of these 225 (29.3% SR) were successful producing level stakes profits of 85.3pts at an ROI of 37.9%.

5 lb claimer Kieron Edgar takes the ride here...

Bathwick Man's trainer David Pipe has a good record placing 5lb claiming jockeys on his runners. He doesn't use them very often, but hey are profitable to follow. Since 2008, David has employed the services of a 5lb claimer on 126 occasions. 27 winners have come from those 126 rides with the 15.3% strike rate generating 90.9pts profit at an ROI of 51.7%. Digging down from this stat, we find the following:

In handicap races : 23/130 (17.7% SR) for 122.4pts (+94.1% ROI)
Class 3/4 handicap races : 17/77 (22.1% SR) for 74.7pts (+97% ROI)
Handicap hurdles : 17/91 (18.7% SR) for 92.9pts (+102.1% ROI)
Class 3/4 handicap hurdles : 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 87.1pts (+158.3% ROI)

Kieron Edgar's record is 2 from 9 for 8.74pts: a small sample size but still profitable.

As I said at the top of the piece, Bathwick Man is in good shape and is in form. He did flag a little towards the end of his last outing and the 2f drop in trip is sure to help him in his bid to clock up another win for a yard which is going really well at present, having landed 11 wins from 31 in the last month.

I say the drop in trip should help him as his record at this type of distance reads 14P211522, 3 wins and 3 places from 9 attempts isn't bad going at all.

This race shouldn't take too much winning, to be honest and running off the same mark as last week should keep our boy competitive in what the bookies see as a fairly open contest. This works to or advantage as we'll get a decent price on our selection, so the call is a simple one to make: it's a 1pt win bet on Bathwick Man at 4/1 BOG. I know at least five bookies offering that price, so you should have no problems getting on.

For the record, I've gone with Boylesports, but you can place your own bets after you...

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Stat of the Day, 19th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2014

Despite still being well ahead of the game for the month, September has proven to be quite frustrating so far and yesterday's 4th place finish for an E/W selection pretty much summed up the way things have gone of late.

But amongst all this, my methods won't change. We're almost three years into a successful project and my MO is very simple each and every day: find a horse that has the best statistical fit and is backable at a reasonable price that offers some value. I like to operate in the 5/2 to 6/1 area, but will stray occasionally for an E/W bet at larger odds, if deemed fit.

I thought that Ishiamber should have been an 11/2 to 6/1 chance on Thursday, but when I found I could get 9/1, I went E/W to maximise the chances of a payout. I stress that I wasn't chasing a big winner. Had that been my intention, I would surely have gone win only. After all, when she trailed in 4th at 8/1, the outcome would have been the same.

Bruised but undeterred by my recent cold spell, I dust myself down and go ahead in Friday's...

5.40 Newton Abbot:

A Class 4 handicap hurdle for seven runners on good ground over a trip of 2m 6f, where Kieron Edgar will claim 5lbs aboard David Pipe's 8 yr old Hawkhill who takes a drop in class ( 3 to 4) for this contest.

David Pipe has been amongst the winners of late, as 10 of his 37 runners (27% SR) have been successful over the last two months. His last entries all ran here at Newton Abbot 11 days ago, where his trio of runners came home with two golds and a silver on a very satisfying afternoon for the yard. He's had no runners since then, but is no doubt relishing a return to the scene of his last victories.

Hawkhill hasn't won for 6 races and now runs off a mark 8lbs lower than that win...

Since 2009, David Pipe's UK NH horses without a win in 5 (or more!) races who then ran off a mark lower than their last winning effort have won 11 of 57 (19.3% SR) races, when sent off in the 5/2 to 7/1 price range. The subsequent 20.4pts profit represents a return of stakes of 35.8%.

Those competing over hurdles under the same conditions as above have won 9 of 34 races (26.5% SR) for 30.7pts (+90.4% ROI) profit.

Not only is he 8lbs below that winning mark, his jockey claims another 5lbs...

Since 2008, David Pipe has employed the services of a 5lb claimer in 131 handicap contests and the 23 winners gives a healthy strike rate of 17.6% alongside level stakes profits of 122.6pts or 93.6% of all stakes invested. In hurdles races alone, those figures improve to 16 wins from 85 (18.8% SR) for 95.2pts (+112% ROI).

And it is in the middle class races (ie classes 3 & 4) where the optimum results can be found with 12 winners from 50 (24%) producing 88.3pts (+176.6% ROI) profit.

Hawkhill drops down two levels to compete here...

David Pipe's horses who have been dropped 1 or 2 levels in class over the last couple of years have a 26/107 record in handicaps when priced in the 2/1 to 7/1 odds range ie our "usual" area of operation for SotD. This 24.3% strike rate has, so far, produced 39.1pts profit at an ROI of 36.5%, with those horses dropping two classes (like Hawkhill) winning 4 of 15 (26.7% SR) races for 7.5pts (+50% ROI) profit.

Despite not being in the best of form, Hawkhill now faces a return to the track where he has previously won, dropping two grades to a level where his record reads 11121 and running off a mark 8lbs lower than his last winning effort with the added bonus of a 5lb claimer on his back. If all of that can't combine to make him competitive, I'm not sure what would!

After all this is a horse who has won a Listed race and was plying his trade at Listed level this time last year and also as recently as two months and three starts ago.

This is quite possibly his easiest assignment since that last win and I think he has a very good chance here. So based on the above, I'm placing a 1pt win bet on Hawkhill at 9/2 BOG with Coral, who stand alone at that price, whilst the other firms with a market open for this race vary from 3/1 through 7/2 to 4/1.

Obviously you want to get the best price you can and if that 9/2 has gone by the time you read this, then you should...

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Stat of the Day, 19th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th August 2014

Cincuenta Pasos was beaten by a little over two lengths yesterday, because he had nothing to give when it was asked for with 600 yards to travel. He looked to have every chance up to that point, but when the leader pushed the button and set off for home, our runner didn't have the same turn of foot to go with her.

The end result was a third place finish as a 6/4 favourite that we'd backed at 7/2 BOG early doors. So, we smashed the SP again and there was no disgrace in the defeat, but there was no profit either, something that will hopefully be corrected in this evening's...

6.10 Worcester:

Where I've taken 3/1 BOG about David Pipe's chaser Franklin Roosevelt. The Pipe string is in good nick at the moment (3 wins and a runner-up from his last five runners) and has a 33.3% strike rate over the last month (6/18) and in the last three seasons, his runners here at Worcester who have been priced at 6/1 or shorter have won 12 of 36 races for 15.5pts (+43% ROI) profit.

Franklin Roosevelt is David's only runner of the day and he was an easy six lengths winner at Newton Abbot just over five weeks ago in a Class 4 hurdle and runs at that same level here today...

David Pipe's male handicap chasers who ran at the same class or within one class either way as their last run, which also happened to be a win inside the last 45 days, have won 17 of 63 (27% SR) races since 2008 and this has generated 26.7pts profit at an ROI of 42.4%.

Those sent off in our general price range for SotD (2/1 to 7/1) have won 13 of 33 (39.4% SR) for 47.8pts, or 144.8% above stakes invested.

Our jockey today will be Kieron Edgar who will take a useful 5lbs off this joint top-weight here...

Mr Pipe doesn't call upon the services of a jockey with a 5lb claim that often, but when he does, he often reaps the rewards of that decision. Since 2008, the yard's record in NH handicaps with a 5lb claimer in the saddle, has been 22 winners from 119 (18.5% SR) for 129.6pts (+108.9% ROI) profit.

The "Instant Expert" tab on our racecards also tells us that our selection today has won three times from five attempts on good ground, with a further place finish for good measure. He has won four of eleven starts at this level (Class 4) and he's 2/6 in small fields of 7 or fewer runners, so conditions look ideal for him here.

2m 7f isn't a trip he has tackled before, but he did win over 2m 7.5f at Leicester last year, so although he's dropping back in trip today, it's not exactly a step into the unknown.

The market is often a good indicator of his chances, with him being sent off in the 15/8 to 7/1 price range in 12 of his 20 starts to date and all six career wins fall into that price bracket, where he is 6/12 (50% SR) for 22pts (+183.3% ROI) profit.

He ran well last time out when having a pipe-opener over hurdles for his first run for almost six months at Newton Abbot five weeks ago, where he was an easy winner and now he reverts back to chasing off what still looks a very workable mark, aided by the afore-mentioned 5lb claim.

All things considered, 3/1 BOG looks a pretty reasonable price for our 1pt win bet on Franklin Roosevelt here and I'm on with Hills. The price is quite widely available, so for your pick of the bookies, simply...

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Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2014

I remain firmly on the cold list after Don Pooleoni somewhat disappointingly ran out of steam late on yesterday. Despite taking a low (for SotD!) price of 9/4, we were at least able to beat the book as he came home in 5th place at 2/1, a good 31 lengths behind the relatively surprising winner.

A real test of stamina awaits us today in the...

1.50 Warwick:

Three of David Pipe's last six runners have been winners with two finishing as runner-up and he has a record of 20 winners from 96 (20.% SR) at Warwick, producing level stakes profits of 12.82pts (+13.4% ROI). With all odds-against runners priced below 8/1, his full Warwick record is 13/43 (30.2%SR) for 19.13pts (+44.5% ROI).

Just the one runner for David today and the 5/1 BOG shot Franklin Roosevelt competes in the type of race the Pipe excels at. It's a 3m2f chase on soft/heavy ground, not one for the weak or faint hearted: this promises to be a real test.

Since January 2008, David Pipe's chasers over 3 miles and beyond on ground worse than good have won 49 times from 269, a strike rate of 18.2%. this in turn has led to level stakes profits of 161.8pts or 60.1% of stakes. Of these 269 runners, if we looked more closely at those running in our usual SotD odds range (13/8 to 6/1), we get 27 winners from 95 (28.4% SR) for 48.75pts profit, equal to 51.3% of stakes.

It's currently Soft (Heavy in places) here, but it would be no surprise if it wasn't heavy going come race time, especially with all the rain in the air and Mr Pipe's record with chasers over these longer trips on heavy is 15/71 (21.1% SR) for 56.25pts (+79.2% ROI), of which we have 7/27 (25.9% SR) for 13.37pts (+49.5% ROI) priced between 13/8 and 6/1.

Franklin Roosevelt is 211 over this trip and 91111 with Tom Scudamore on his back. The horse has also won two of his last three outings at this level (Class 4) and drops back in Class after a decent 3rd at C3 followed by a reasonable 8th of 13 (only 8 lengths down) in a Class 2 contest over 3m 5.5f at Sandown. He's down 3lbs, 2 grades and 3.5f today which should all play to his strengths.

Nine runners go to post for this one and this horse has five wins from eleven in fields of ten runners or less, two wins from his last three left-handed runs, four from his last seven chases and he's five from nine in blinkers.

So, we've plenty of incidental stats to back up the main reasonings behind the selection and the current 5/1 BOG at Stan James makes for an interesting 1pt win bet on Franklin Roosevelt today.

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Sat TV Trends: 16th Mar 2013

Midlands National

It's a big day at Uttoxeter this Saturday....

Cheltenham might be over, but there is no let-up in the top-notch action as this Saturday we've got the Midlands Grand National and the Lingfield Winter Derby to get the pulses racing - As always Andy Newton's got all the LIVE C4 race trends....... Read more