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Sat TV Trends: 24th Oct 2020

Bundles going on this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham – As always we got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle…….Can leading Irish handler Aidan O’Brien land his tenth Vertum Futurity Trophy?

Use these key trends to help narrow down the runners and highlight the best profiles of past winners.

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)


1.45 –Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

12/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
11/12 – Foaled in February or later
11/12 – Had won over 6f before
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times before
10/12 – Won last time out
9/12 – Carried 9-1 in weight
9/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/12 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
8/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – March-born foals
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/12 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

2.20 – Vertum Very Different Stockbrokers Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

15/15 – Ran 5 or more times that season
14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/15 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Carried 8-10 or less
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (4 won)
5/15 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
2/15 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 6)
1/15 – Winning mare/filly
Tarboosh (8/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

2.55 – Vertem Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

 

16/18 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
16/18 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 - Foaled in February or later
15/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
15/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/18 – Had raced at least twice previously
12/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Won their last race
11/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/18 – Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (7) last time out
10/18 – Had won over a mile in the past
7/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
6/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 7)
4/18 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (inc the last 3 winners)
3/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
1/18 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 & 2018
The average SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/2

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Newbury
Note: The 2019 renewal was staged at Newcastle

 

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

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3.35 – Cancom Stakes Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
13/16 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
11/16 – Never raced at Newbury
12/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Favourites unplaced
8/16 – Won over 7f before
8/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – Foaled in February
7/16 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
4/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
4/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
1/16 – Winning favourites

 

4.10 – Teddington RBL Poppy Appeal Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won at least twice before
14/17 – Had at least 4 runs that season
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Rated 107 or higher
10/17 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
10/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/17 – Placed horses from stall 6
7/17 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/17 – Won by a filly or mare
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/17 – Winners from stall 1
Morando (8/1) won the race in 2018
Young Rascal (Evs) won this race in 2017

 

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 - Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

8/11 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
6/11 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Carried 10-12 in weight
6/11 – Placed in their last race
5/11 – Irish bred winners
4/11 – Favourites placed
4/11 – Won 3 times over hurdles previously
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Quel Destin (1st 7/2) won the race in 2019
 

2.40 – Best Odds At Matchbook Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than 3 times over fences
9/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Had run over hurdles at Cheltenham in the past (3 won)
7/10 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences)
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/10 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

 

 

3.15 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

8/11 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/11 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
7/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/11 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Irish Bred
2/11 – Mare winners
2/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Winning favourites
Tobefair (8/1) won this race in 2019



3.50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

12/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
12/13 – Won over at least 3m previously
10/13 – First run of the season
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
9/13 – Rated 134 or higher
9/13 – Irish bred winners
8/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/13 – Favourites unplaced
7/13 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
6/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/13 – Unplaced in their last race
5/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
5/13 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
1/13 – Winning Favourites
The Conditional (14/1) won the race in 2019
Cogry (13/2) won the race in 2017
Cogry was 2nd in the race last year
Relentless Dreamer (16/1) won the race in 2018

 

 

 

 

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Doncaster TV Trends: Fri 11th Sept 2020

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse in the middle of September (9th-14th) for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV3.

As always, here at Geegeez, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Friday 11th September 2020

 

1:40 – bet365 Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132y ITV3

17/17 – Drawn in stall 11 or lower
16/17 – Aged 5 or younger
16/17 – Had won at least twice before
14/17 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
13/17 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/17 – Carried 8-10 or more
10/17 – Winning distance 1 length or more
9/17 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/17 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
7/17 – Ran at York last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Returned a double-figure price
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/17 – Trained by Michael Bell
2/17 – Trained by James Fanshawe
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Sleeping Lion (4/1) won this race 12 months ago

 

2.10 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6 1/2f ITV3

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10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
10/10 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
9/10 – Aged 5 or younger
9/10 – Won over 6f and 7f
9/10 – Won between 2-4 times
9/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
7/10 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
7/10 – Had run at Doncaster before
7/10 – Carried between 8-10 and 8-13 in weight
6/10 – Irish bred
2/10 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/10 – Winning favourites
0/10 – Winners from stall 1

2.40 – Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV3

16/17 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
13/17 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
13/17 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
12/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Won 1-2 times before
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Foaled in April
6/17 – Ran at York last time
6/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
5/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
5/17 – Won last time out
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
1/17 – Winners from stall 1

 

3:15 – bet365 Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f ITV3

17/19 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
17/19 – Had 2 or more runs that season
16/19 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
14/19 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
13/19 – Placed last time out
13/19 – Had won 5 or more times before
12/19 – Aged 6 or younger
11/19 – Ran at York last time out
11/19 – Previous Group race winners
11/19 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
8/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Trained in Ireland

 

3.45 – bet365 Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV3

10/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
8/10 – Won last time out
8/10 – Foaled in March or later
8/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Won over 7f or 1m before
8/10 – Won just once before
7/10 – Winning favourites
7/10 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Drawn in stalls 2 (3) or 5 (3)
5/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/10 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/10 – Ridden by Silvestre de Sousa

 

 

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