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Racing Insights, 16th October 2020

On Fridays, the Horses for Courses report is free to all users, so let's take a look and see if there's anything of interest, shall we?

Obviously you can set your own parameters and the lower the required Win Strike Rate, then the more qualifiers you'll have, but I want to look at these with a record of 1 in 3 or better who have made the frame in at least half of their course appearances to see if they're likely to improve upon the figures shown.

I've merely arranged them in time order with no other reasoning and let's consider each in turn starting with Fact Flow...

On the plus side, this 11 yr old gelding has two wins and a place from six handicap chase efforts on this track, he has won twice in eight starts under today's jockey Robert Dunne and is two from seven in the lower prize funded Class 4 contests.

He is now running off a mark some 10lbs lower than his last win and despite this being a 17-runner contest, he did win a 16-runner affair here over 2m6.5f in 2018 and was placed third in his only previous effort over course and distance.

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However, he has no win in ten since scoring here over 2m4f back in November 2018 on good to soft ground and is 004 on soft. He has never won beyond 2m6.5f, has never won after more than four weeks rest and comes here having been soundly beaten by a combined 92 lengths in his last three contests.

Next up, we have Everyhouronthehour...

We've the bonus of an in-form (14) jockey with a good course record (C5) aboard this 4 yr old gelding who has finished 521419 in six starts here at Dundalk.

He recently won over a mile on turf at Gowran Park and ran a very good race as runner-up off today's mark at the Curragh, also over a mile when last seen almost three weeks ago.

In addition to that, he has finished 14191 when sent off shorter than 5/1, so the market seems to be a good judge of his chances, he has a win and a further place from three runs wearing a tongue tie and was a winner on the only previous occasion that Colin Keane was in the saddle (at Gowran two starts ago).

The downside is that he hasn't even made the frame when dropped into a 7f contest, finishing 059 with the last two of those coming here at Dundalk, but he does like to press on, so that might help here. He was a creditable second off today's mark of 62 last time out, but that's 5lbs higher than his previous highest winning mark.

And finally, we turn to Castle Quarter at Newcastle...

This 4yr old gelding is 13137 here at Newcastle, all over 7f and tries a mile here for the first time. He was only beaten by three lengths last time out when seventh here and has now been eased a couple of pounds in the weights.

He has won at this grade and is one from two under today's jockey David Nolan whose C1 icon signifies a good record on this track over the last year. It's interesting to see a return to cheekpieces after wearing blinkers for his last five runs, but he has run well with the 'pieces in place previously, finishing 183.

There is however a doubt that he doesn't "get" further than seven furlongs, having to failed to win any of his four attempts, but he does like this track and this might represent his best chance to win at a longer trip so far.

Summary

I personally feel that today has been a very worthwhile exercise in reinforcing the Geegeez message that you have to use stats as a starting point, but look beyond them before making a final decision.

On face value, the Horses for Courses report suggests we've three "live" chances for Friday, but my personal opinion is that you should leave all three alone : I'm certainly doing just that.

Fact Flow isn't getting any younger (I feel and share his pain) and probably won't have many more bites at the cherry, but if connections feel he's one more win in him, then the recent wind op will need to be a miracle worker. He's bang out of form and 33/1 for a reason. I'd expect him to finish nearer the back than the front.

Everyhouronthehour on the other hand is more than capable of winning, so why won't I back him? Well, taking 11/4 about him in a 14-horse contest doesn't float my boat from a value perspective, especially when ou consider he hasn't won at this shorter trip and is at a career-high mark. I think I'll pass, meaning he's likely to win!

And Castle Quarter is unproven beyond 7f and has only one win in ten at this grade. If there was such a thing or horse, he's a Class 5.5 runner or plain Class 6.  This is too much for him off this mark.

Stat of the Day, 20th March 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.25 Taunton : Seeanythingyoulike @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Chased leaders, awkward 5th, weakened before 4 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Dundalk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cautious Approach @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on polytrack worth 7,080 Euros to the winner...

Why?...

Firstly a caveat, Irish racing isn't really my thing, but stats are stats, I suppose! And the show must go on where possible.

So I'm going with 5 yr old mare who has four wins and two places from her last nine starts including finishing third when beaten by just two necks over course and distance in a better race than this one. She runs at the same mark today, but has the benefit of a jockey claiming three pounds, so I expect another good run from her.

Her record here at Dundalk is good at 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 38.9pts (+353.7% ROI) including of note today...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 40.9pts (+454.5%) in races worth the equivalent of £4-8k
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 33.1pts (+368%) in handicaps
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 35.1pts (+502%) in fields of more than 10 runners
  • 3/6 (50%) for 36.1pts (+602%) in the last 180 days
  • 3/6 (50%) for 15.35pts (+255.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 33.3pts (+1111%) in Feb/March
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.4pts (+312%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 1/3 (33.3%) for 25.6pts (+851.7%) over this 1m4f course and distance
  • and 1/2 950%) for 26.6pts (+1328%) under today's jockey, Donagh O'Connor...

...who himself is in good touch right now, having ridden four winners from seven (51.7% SR) for 32pts (+457.4% ROI) over the past three weeks, including 3 from 3 at 1m2.5f-1m4f and 2 from 2 for today's trainer, Richard John O'Brien...

...whose 4 to 7 yr old handicappers are 12 from 68 (17.7% SR) for 56.6pts (+83.3% ROI) here at Dundalk, including of relevance here...

  • 10/53 (18.9%) for 31.1pts (+58.6%) in races worth the equivalent of £4-8k
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 69.8pts (+183.7%) at 11-30 dslr
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 41.4pts (+118.2%) during the first quarter of the year
  • 7/43 (16.3%) for 21.9pts (+50.9%) in fields of 13/14 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 15.3pts (+95.6%) at odds of 5/2 to 5/1
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 28.5pts (+189.9%) over 1m2.5f to 1m4f
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 32.5pts (+270.8%) with female runners
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 13.1pts (+187.3%) with those placed third LTO
  • 2/5 (40%) for 27.5pts (+550%) this year
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) 29.5pts (+982.9%) using jockey Donagh O'Connor...

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Cautious Approach @ 7/2 BOG as was available from 888Sport, Unibet & Hills at 8.30am Friday with plenty of 10/3 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Dundalk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!