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In-demand Philippart de Foy looking for notable jumps success

18 July 2025/in Horse Racing News/by Geegeez News

Kevin Philippart de Foy has been in the news of late ahead of his move to the famous Freemason Lodge Stables in Newmarket, yet he is hoping to land one of the biggest prizes of the summer jumps season at Market Rasen.

The Belgian has an intercontinental background given his mum was a trainer in France and he worked for John Oxx in Ireland, Criquette Head-Maarek in France, Christophe Clement in America and James Fanshawe in Newmarket.

While his future is going to be largely Flat-based as the principal trainer for Amo Racing at Sir Michael Stoute’s former yard, he has shown his versatility by winning three in a row with D Day Arvalenreeva, who heads for the Unibet Same Race Multi Summer Handicap Hurdle.

“She’s in very good shape, delighted with the filly. She’s done very little wrong since switching to handicaps,” said De Foy.

“This race has been a target for a long time and the faster (the ground) the better for her.

“Obviously she’s a course and distance winner, it’s a big step up in grade, but I couldn’t be happier with the way she’s going into the race.”

Olly Murphy’s Sir Galahad has an even better record, winning four out of four since joining from James Ferguson.

“He’s been trained for the race, he needed the extra run to qualify, but he’s in good form, looks progressive and he’s got an unusual profile,” said Murphy.

“He’s on an upward curve and is full of confidence. He’s taken to hurdles really well, he’s got confidence since taking a hurdle and with a bit of luck, he’ll run very well.”

Fergal O’Brien’s Castel Gandolfo won the race last year and got back to winning ways over course and distance last month.

“We went more or less the same route. I think he’s run in it the last four years so it was always a plan to run it,” said O’Brien.

“We ran him at Bangor and Johnny (Burke, jockey) said ‘he’s just a totally different horse going right-handed’, especially right-handed with a rail, so he said he feels much better at Market Rasen than he does anywhere else. Right-handed around Rasen does suit him.”

O’Brien also runs Oslo off bottom weight, the mount of Liam Harrison.

“Oslo is fine. I’d like him to take a step forward, he’s been running very well for us on the Flat, he got brought down at Bangor last year and I’m not sure if he’s got over that yet when it comes to jumping hurdles,” he said.

“We’d like to see him to finish off his races a bit better, and if he does, he could be a player as well.

“They are both good, they will try their best and fingers crossed.”

Hat Trick (Plus) Seekers in NH Racing

13 November 2024/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

Some horses are better, or better handicapped, than others and, as a result, have been able to run up winning sequences, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will uncover some profitable angles in relation to horses that have won at least their most recent two races; that is, which are chasing a hat-trick, four-timer, five-timer or more.

The focus will be horses bidding for a hat-trick plus specifically in the National Hunt sphere. I have taken data from 1st Jan 2017 to the present day (end of October 2024) for UK National Hunt racing. Profit/losses in all tables/graphs is calculated to Industry Starting Price, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

All NH Hat-trick+ Seekers

Let me begin by looking at the starting base figures of ALL horses trying to complete a third win in a row:

As might be expected, we see a strong win rate of close to one in every four starts, but losses to SP stand at over 13 pence in the £. To BSP this improves considerably but losses still exceed 4p in the £. Here is how that breaks down on an annual basis:

The results have been a little better in the last three years, but it is unclear whether this a trend or simply an anomaly. My suspicion is that it is the latter.

So, what about the type of NH contest - Chase, hurdle, or bumper (NH Flat)? Let’s see the splits:

Hat-trick+ seekers in bumpers have seen the best returns (close to parity) but in truth the sample size is modest. The chase and hurdle figures are similar to each other, with perhaps hat-trick+ seeking hurdlers a marginally better proposition than chasers.

NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers by Race Class

I want to examine class of race next. Below is a graph looking at the class of race these hat-trick+ seekers ran in comparing their win strike rates within each class:

This is interesting – from a win perspective at least it seems much harder to win in the two highest classes of race (Class 1 and 2), which stands to reason given horses have likely progressed from lesser contests. Below is a chart illustrating return on investment (ROI) by race class:

We see positive correlation between the ROI%s and the win strike rates, with hat-trick+ seekers racing in Class 1 and Class 2 events providing the worst value to punters. It should be noted that there have only been a handful of Class 6 races in comparison to the other five classes so we should not get too carried away with the 18p in the £ returns. Having said that, I did back check hat-trick seekers in Class 6 events between the years 2009 and 2016 and they proved profitable to SP in that time frame with an even better win strike rate of 43%. However, since 2018 NH racing no longer has Class 6 events except for some hunter chases.

If we focus on handicap hurdle races at Class 5 level, the lowest grade, hat-trick+ seekers have won 85 times from 253 qualifiers (SR 33.6%) for an SP profit of £15.33 (ROI +6.1%); to BSP +£37.76 (ROI +14.9%). [And once from one run since the research was completed, a 3/1 scorer at Chepstow on 6th November]

The Betting Market for NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers

The betting market is my next port of call. Below are the SP results for different price groupings:

The best returns - as is usually the case - have come from shorter priced runners (6/4 or less) and to BSP, losses for these runners stand at 1.7%, not far from break-even. The 17/2 to 12/1 group have offered the poorest value and even losses to BSP have been quite steep at 18p in the £ (-18.2% to be exact).

Horses priced 14/1 or bigger win rarely but they have proved profitable to BSP (+£160.38; ROI +24.8%). This has not been due to any ridiculously priced winners: it is basically down to 14/1, 16/1, 20/1 winners paying much more on the Betfair machine.

NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers by Days Since Last Run (DSLR)

I wanted to next check the data for days since last run (DSLR) which of course was a winning run. Here are the findings:

Horses returning to the track within two weeks have made a small profit to SP. Indeed, to BSP horses off the track for 14 days or less produced a tidy profit of £108.33 (ROI +14.4%). In addition to this, these horses have been quite consistent over the years, with their yearly strike rate always exceeding 30% and five of the eight years proving profitable to BSP. If we look at their yearly A/E indices we can see that six of the eight years saw a figure above 1.00, indicating value. Only 2021 saw a modest A/E index:

I have added a trendline (dotted) which helps further to show the consistency. It seems that hat-trick+ seekers returning to the track within a fortnight have offered punters good value in the recent past and perhaps this is an area we can exploit this winter.

NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers by Trainer

It’s time to look at trainers now. Which handlers are most adept at finding that good opportunity for their charge to continue a sequence of two or more wins? Here are the trainers with at least 50 qualifiers (ordered alphabetically):

Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, Alan King, Neil Mulholland and Nigel Twiston-Davies look to be four stables to avoid in this context; their strike rates as well as returns are lower than their peers in this cohort. Below are some highlights from a few of these trainers, with some positive angles but also some negatives, too.

Kim Bailey – has a virtually identical record with his hat-trick+ seekers in handicap and non-handicap races:

The profits to BSP for non-handicaps reads +£13.34 (ROI +32.5%) and in handicaps it is +£12.53 (ROI +29.8%). His record in chases is much better than over hurdles with 16 wins from 40 (SR 40%) for a profit to SP of £26.57 (ROI +66.4%); to BSP it stands at £33.54 (ROI +83.9%).

Bailey has also done well when his runners have been fancied – horses starting either favourite or second favourite have combined to win 25 times from 55 runners (SR 45.5% for a profit to SP of £12.94 (ROI +23.5%). To BSP this improves slightly to +£15.53 (ROI +28.2%). Kim Bailey looks a trainer to keep an eye on.

Nicky Henderson – Nicky Henderson is one of the greats, a fact rarely lost on the market. Steer clear of any hat-trick+ seeker from Seven Barrows racing in a handicap. They have won just eight times from 64 attempts (SR 12.5%) for a loss to SP of £37.68 (ROI -58.9%). To BSP he was only marginally off, and losses remained at over 55p in the £.

Willie Mullins – The majority of Willie’s hat-trick+ seekers looking to complete the trio in the UK raced at the Cheltenham Festival, and they returned the Irish maestro 22p in the £ to SP and 38p in the £ to BSP respectively. He also had a 38% strike rate with horses that had won at Leopardstown last time out, returning 49p in the £ to SP and 58p to BSP.

Fergal O’Brien – O’Brien has made a profit in both handicaps and non-handicaps. He has also made a profit with his bumper runners, hurdlers, and any runner that has started favourite. However, his most eye-catching stat might be his record with fillies and mares as the table below shows:

Returns of over 63p in the £ coupled with a strike rate of over 40% is remarkable. To BSP his profit stands at £42.37 (ROI +81.5%).

Nicky Richards –Richards has excelled outside Class 1 and 2 company. In Class 3 or lower his hat-trick+ seekers have won 35.9% of the time (19 wins from 53) for a profit of £22.49 to SP. This equates to returns of 42p in the £. To BSP the profit climbs considerably to £41.19 (ROI +77.7%). His handicappers have provided all of the profits, with his hurdlers outperforming his chasers.

Dan Skelton – Skelton has a surprisingly poor record with hat-trick+ seekers. Any Skelton qualifier that starts as favourite should be treated with caution. These runners would have lost you 23p in the £ to SP, 19p to BSP. Hat-trick+ seeking chasers are also ones to about which to be wary having lost 43p in the £ to SP, 41p to BSP.

Venetia Williams – Miss Williams has sent out 71 hat-trick+ seekers in chases of which 17 have won (SR 23.9%) for an SP profit of £24.81 (ROI +34.9%); to BSP this improves considerably to +£59.37 (ROI +83.6%). However, before getting too carried away, there was an SP winner of 40/1 that paid over 70 on Betfair in the sample; taking that winner out, Venetia's figures have produced a loss. It always pays to check for skewed data.

Other NH Hat-Trick+ Seeker Pointers

I have looked at most of the key areas but, before closing, there are a couple more findings I would like to share with you. Firstly, I want to look at how far winners won by last time out (LTO) in terms of lengths. When examining these LTO winning margins I found a clear pattern. Let me share the win strike rates first – I’ve split the LTO winning margins into three groups: won by 2 lengths or less; won by over 2 lengths up to and including 5 lengths; won by more than 5 lengths. Here are the splits:

As can be seen the horses that won by further performed best on their next run, from a win percentage perspective at least. But how does that translate to profitability measures?

Horses that won by over 5 lengths LTO not only have more chance of completing the hat-trick, but they provided the best returns by some way: both to SP and BSP.

Secondly, and in my final offering for this article, I want to share the stats for hat-trick+ seekers that are racing at a track where they have a previous course and distance (shown on the racecard as 'CD') win to their name. There were 745 past CD winners of which 234 won (SR 31.4%) for very small losses to SP of £9.18 (ROI -1.2%). To BSP these runners made a profit of £80.75 (ROI +10.8%). Their A/E index stands at very respectable 0.97.

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Summary

Positives

In this article we've seen that some hat-trick+ seekers potentially offer value to punters, especially if backing to BSP (and/or, probably, to early prices with best odds guaranteed).

These include:

horses returning to the track within 14 days
horses that won by more than 5 lengths LTO
handicap hurdlers racing at Class 5 level
previous course and distance winners

Also, there are a few trainers to note positively including:

Kim Bailey
Willie Mullins
Fergal O’Brien
Nicky Richards (Class 3 or lower, handicaps)

Negatives

In terms of negatives, it seems best to ignore hat-trick+ seekers which:

are running in Class 1 or Class 2 events
are priced between 17/2 and 12/1
won by 2 lengths or less LTO

Some trainers look worth swerving in this contextand these include:

Oliver Greenall + Josh Guerriero
Alan King
Neil Mulholland
Nigel Twiston-Davies
Nicky Henderson handicappers
Dan Skelton chasers and/or favourites

So, it is time to wrap this up, and for me I am off to do some digging for my next article. I hope you enjoyed this one.

- DR

Trainer Profiles: Fry, Lacey, Newland, O’Brien, Snowden

16 January 2023/in Trainer Profiles/by Dave Renham

In this the final Trainer Profiles article for the time being, I am examining the training record of five trainers that I have yet to study in the series. I will be looking at ten years of UK racing data from 1^st January 2013 to 31^st December 2022, the majority of which can be sourced by members using from the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price and Betfair SP data will be shared where meaningful, also.

As I will be looking at several different trainers, each individual piece will focus on what I perceive to be their most important areas – highlighting where possible key positives and negatives. Let’s get cracking...

Harry Fry

Harry has been training in Dorset for just over a decade having taken out his license in October 2012.

Harry Fry Yearly Breakdown

Let’s look at Fry's yearly breakdown by win strike rate first:

The trend as a rule is downward, although 2022 did see a bounce back, perhaps as a result of settling in to his new training premises. Below are the combined strike rates and BSP returns comparing the first five years with the second five years.

2023 will be quite informative in terms of whether the 2022 improvement can be replicated.

Harry Fry Time of Year Breakdown

Sticking with the ‘time’ theme, Fry’s record has been much better in the main months of the National Hunt Season (November to March) as the table below shows:

There is a definite edge in strike rate, return on investment, Actual/Expected and Impact Values for the November to March period.

Harry Fry Performance by Market Rank

A look at some market data now, and here are the Fry figures for market position:

We can see a clear drop off once we get to 5^th or bigger in the betting market, part of which is the fact that this group incorporates fifth and 15th in the markets depending on field size. Meanwhile, focusing on the top four of the betting, returns have been a solid 8 pence in the £ when betting to BSP. It looks best therefore to concentrate on Fry runners that are near the head of the betting market.

Harry Fry Performance by Run Style

In terms of run style Fry tends to the follow the pattern of the average trainer as this chart shows:

Roughly 52% of his runners race front rank early (led/prominent); 48% for mid/back pack runners. Not surprisingly though, the win percentages play out as we have seen in every previous piece:

If we had been able to predict when a Fry horse would take the early lead we would have been quids in. If... Note also the very poor returns for hold up horses.

Harry Fry Individual Stats (positive/negative)

Here are some of the strongest stand-alone stats that I have found for Fry:

Four courses have seen a strike rate of 25% or more (minimum 50 runs) – these are Exeter, Newton Abbot, Uttoxeter and Kempton. All four courses have made profits to BSP; Kempton and Exeter have significant profits to both SP and BSP, the former returning 98p in the £ to BSP, the latter 52p. Conversely, Chepstow has not been a happy hunting ground with just 7 wins from 65 (SR 10.8%)

Horses making their debut have won 39 races from 184 (SR 21.2%) for an SP profit of £30.07 (ROI +16.3%). To BSP this increases to +£59.04 (ROI +32.1%)

Horses switching to NH racing from the ‘level’ are rare from this stable. However 35 horses have come from turf or all weather flat races last time, with only three winning

Last time out winners have scored an impressive 32.4% of the time (133 winners from 410) returning 5p in the £ to SP, increasing to 12p to BSP

Horses returning to the track after a break of nine weeks or more have a decent record – 136 wins from 635 (SR 21.4%). A 17p return to BSP

Tom Lacey

Tom started training in 2012 but it was not until 2017 that he sent out more than 100 runners. In the past three years that number has been over 200 each year. He has been profitable to BSP in five of the last seven years going back to 2016.

Tom Lacey Performance by Course

A look at some course data first and, specifically, at the win percentages / strike rates across all tracks where Lacey has sent at least 40 runners.

Huntingdon stands out, with 13 wins from 44 for an SP profit of £32.32 (ROI +73.45%). To BSP this increases to £41.81 (ROI +95.0%). For the record, in handicap hurdles at the course, he is an impressive 7 from 21 (SR 33.3%) with winners at 9/4, 7/2, 9/2 (twice), 7/1, 9/1 and 16/1.

Tom Lacey Performance by Distance

Distance splits next for Lacey:

These figures suggest that his record in shorter races is slightly worse. Profits in the 2m2f to 2m6f group are decent especially as the biggest priced winner was 25/1 and not something massively outlying. The 3m+ runners would have snuck into profit if using BSP. In terms of strike rates, the 2m2f+ runners as a whole are at or around 20% which is notably better than performance at the shortest distances.

Tom Lacey Performance by Jockey

Jockey wise, here is a comparison of Lacey's use of professionals versus claiming riders:

There are virtually identical strike rates and the profit/loss figures are fairly similar. Hence, there is no need to put off if a claiming jockey is on board; indeed, it is possible the market slightly undervalues that angle.

There are three main jockeys Lacey currently uses and here are their stats:

The figures for Burke, certainly in terms of returns, are very poor - and well below the other two. It is worth noting that, like Dunne, Sheppard has been profitable to BSP. Sticking with Sheppard, his record in handicaps is excellent (strike rate of just above 20%). These races would have generated a 14p in the £ return to SP, 33p to BSP. In non-handicaps, his strike rate has been just 12.4%.

Tom Lacey Individual Stats (positive/negative)

Some further statistical nuggets for Tom Lacey are below:

Horses priced 28/1 or bigger from the yard are 0 from 120, with just 11 placed

Horses from the top five in the betting have combined to break even at starting price

Horses making their debut have won 22 races from 141 (SR 15.6%) for a minimal SP profit of £3.31 (ROI +2.4%). To BSP this increases to +£36.07 (ROI +25.6%)

Horses running less than three weeks since their last run have provided 58 wins from 259 (SR 22.4%) for an SP profit of £79.64 (ROI +30.8%); BSP +£121.24 (ROI +46.8%)

Dr Richard Newland

Richard Newland was a GP before he switched to training horses in 2006/07.

Dr Richard Newland Yearly Breakdown

Dr Newland has had plenty of success but this graphic shows a clear recent downturn in fortunes:

As we can see, in six of the first seven years (2013 to 2019) he managed a win percentage of over 20%. However, the last three years have seen strike rates between 15.9% and 12.8%. I have looked at various profitable angles in a bid to find ones that have held up OK in the past three years, but I could find only one.

Dr Richard Newland Last Run

The one area where he has continued to be profitable is with runners who failed to complete the course last time out. That is, horses whose previous form figure is a letter not a number; for example horses that fell (F), were pulled up (P), etc. Splitting up and comparing 2013 to 2019 with 2020 to 2022 we get the following results:

The strike rate has dropped but Newland has produced similar profits in the last three years to the previous seven. Whether this is a type of runner that punters should continue to follow is up for debate, but clearly Newland has been quite adept at getting these horses to bounce back.

As a rule I would be wary of backing Newland runners at the moment. Hopefully 2023 will see a resurgence.

Fergal O’Brien

Irish-born O’Brien started training in 2011 and in 2019 he moved to his current stables near Cheltenham. In October 2021, he joined forces with Graeme McPherson and, in 2022, finished 6^th in the trainer’s championship, his highest position to date. O'Brien has one of the more interesting twitter accounts, and you can follow the team here. [Incidentally, you can - and should! - follow geegeez on twitter here]

Fergal O’Brien Yearly Breakdown

Let me start by looking at O’Brien’s yearly breakdown by win strike rate:

From 2016 to 2022, six of the seven years have seen very similar figures (only 2018 saw a dip); hence there is a good chance the yard will hit around the 17-19% mark again in 2023.

Fergal O’Brien Performance by Course

Racecourse data is next on the list to examine. Here are the tracks where he sent at least 100 runners. I have ordered by win strike rate:

There is quite a range of results here, with five courses managing a blind SP profit. A further five courses are in profit to BSP (Bangor, Market Rasen, Uttoxeter, Worcester and Southwell). Kempton has the lowest strike rate, not helped by a National Hunt Flat race record of just 1 win in 25.

Perth heads the list from a strike rate perspective, and if you combine all Scottish courses together (Ayr, Kelso, Musselburgh and Perth) they have combined to produce 57 winners from 201 runners (SR 28.4%) for an SP profit of £41.51 (ROI +20.7%); to BSP this edges up to £52.16 (ROI +26.00%). Any O’Brien runner heading that far north is worth at least a second glance. His biggest priced winner in Scotland has been 10/1 so this means there have been no huge prices skewing the stats. The trainer's twitter account is fond of "Perth pints" - and we punters should be fond of Perth punts, too!

Now, let's split the course stats into hurdle and chase output. The table below compares strike rates and A/E indices. With a ‘par’ A/E index for all trainers at around 0.87, I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are essentially negative:

Bangor, Huntingdon and Perth are the three courses that have both A/E indices above 1. Huntingdon chase results are particularly strong, as are Bangor’s. On the negative side, Stratford chase performance has been very poor from a win perspective at least (2 wins from 52).

Fergal O’Brien Performance by Distance

Let's look at the distance data next:

There seems to be a bias against the longer races of three miles or more. For the record, chase and hurdle results of 3m+ have been very similarly flatter than shorter trips.

Fergal O’Brien Performance by Jockey

Here are the five jockeys who had 50 or more rides in the past ten years, and rode for the stable in 2022:

Paddy Brennan stands apart, edging into an SP profit from nigh on 2000 rides. To BSP you would have secured a ten-year profit of £357.05 (ROI +17.9%). The last two seasons, though, have seen small losses to BSP, despite solid strike rates of 21.1% and 23.1% respectively. Clearly, the market is cottoning on.

Fergal O’Brien Individual Stats (positive/negative)

Horses wearing a tongue tie only (no other headgear) have secured a strike rate of just over 20% for SP returns of 3.5p in the £. This increases to nearer 20p in the £ to BSP

Horses making their debut have won 52 races from 279 (SR 18.6%) for a SP profit of £39.87 (ROI +14.3%). To BSP this increases to +£121.84 (ROI +43.7%)

On front runners Paddy Brennan has won 88 races from 247 runners (SR 35.6%). Backing all such runners would have made a huge profit to both SP and BSP

Front runners who were in the top three in the betting have won 34.4% of races; hold up horses from the top three in the betting have won just 19.7% of their races

Jamie Snowden

Jamie Snowden worked with Nicky Henderson for three years before going it alone in 2008. Despite having a relatively small, but growing, yard Jamie has had a steady stream of winners in recent years.

Jamie Snowden Yearly Breakdown

Win percentage by year kicks off the Snowden analysis:

Despite the 2020 blip (Covid may be part of the reason), in general we see a sound improvement after the first three seasons (2013-2015). Time to dig deeper:

Jamie Snowden Breakdown by Race Type

Race type is the first port of call:

Runners in Hunter Chases are extremely rare, but maybe he should have more! Joking aside, the main race types have similar strike rates (and Impact Values, to mitigate for field size differential), though hurdle races have seen quite significant losses. This similar strike rate pattern is seen in numerous areas for Snowden, who appears to be an extremely consistent trainer; so let’s look at the more niche area of run style.

Jamie Snowden Performance by Run Style

Snowden appears to have an appreciation of the importance of early pace with nearly 23% of his runners taking or contesting the lead, while nearly 42% of his runners track the pace. The pie chart below shows his full breakdown:

The Held Up percentage is well below the norm for most trainers, again demonstrating that Snowden understands the significance of run style.

The win percentages for each run style group are shown in the following bar chart:

These figures are even more pronounced than normal. Hold up horses have a quite appalling record. Clearly these runners must be avoided unless there is very compelling evidence to the contrary. Front runners win a shade better than one race in every four, which is very impressive.

Jamie Snowden Individual Stats (positive/negative)

As I mentioned earlier, Snowden has very ‘even’ looking stats – there are only a few ‘stand out’ snippets (mainly negative) and these are listed below:

Class 1 races have proved difficult. Just 6 wins from 129 with steep losses of 68p in the £ to SP, 64p to BSP

3yos have won just 1 in 43 races

Female runners have had a slightly higher win percentage than male runners and they would have made a small profit of 3p in the £ if betting to BSP

Horses upped in class by two class levels or more (e.g. Class 5 to Class 3) have a poor record, winning just 4.3% of the time (7 wins from 162 runs)

Summary: Main Takeaways

Here are the key positives and negatives that this article has uncovered across the quintet of trainers analysed:

I hope you have enjoyed the articles in this trainer series. If there is anything you would like me to research and write about, please leave your suggestions in the comments. I will do my best to accommodate you.

Thanks for reading!

- Dave Renham

Monday Musings: Skeltonham

15 November 2021/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

The 2021-22 jumps season – in a sort of foreplay since the end of April – began on Friday with three days’ intense action at Cheltenham, writes Tony Stafford.

The top five protagonists for the jump trainers’ championship, always supposing that Messrs Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead do not intrude on a private domestic issue, have positioned themselves nicely for imminent take-off.
At this stage Fergal O’Brien leads the way with 72 wins and £622,548. Paul Nicholls is second on £561,628 from 60 winners.

Dan Skelton, boosted by the weekend, is on £531,752 from a modest 39 wins to date; Donald McCain has £466,295 from 65 and Nicky Henderson, well up to scratch with 50 wins, is lagging a little with £397,633 in prizes.

A couple of seasons ago, Dan and Harry Skelton, emboldened by the lavish support of their father Nick, Olympic show jumping gold medallist and icon of his primary sport for the best part of half a century, would have been the numerical summer pacesetters in the title race.

The trio knew that having a base in Warwickshire worthy of housing the best of bloodstock, would need a trigger to attract owners in a sport where they were accustomed to turning to Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls if they wanted their horses trained in the UK. The Skeltons needed numbers and the summer, with the best horses out at grass, was the time to put them on the board.

Even some of those two perennial champions’ owners had already gravitated to the better prizemoney and overwhelming superiority, talent- and numerical-wise of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott over in Ireland. It appears that the latter’s gauche blunder in being seen grinning and brandishing his phone to the camera astride a fallen horse on his gallops has been forgiven if not forgotten. Memories are long – practicalities are instantaneous.

The Skelton team has now clearly made it to the big league as their principal five challengers over the weekend emphasised. Meanwhile the mid-summer void has been comfortably filled by Fergal O’Brien, formerly assistant to Nigel Twiston-Davies and more recently a tenant of his.

The building of a new yard a few miles away enabled the breakaway from Twiston-Davies and was the catalyst for a major step forward last season when he broke 100 winners for the first time.

After two 60’s in a row, the next two campaigns realised 49 and 63 before 104 at 18% and £796k prizemoney in 2020-21.
Such has been the forward momentum that as we enter winter, O’Brien leads both winner and money categories. That reflects a 60k cushion, but Nicholls, Skelton and Henderson all have more obvious candidates for the very big pots which always define the season’s champions.

Fergal’s stable strength has been nicely augmented by the addition of around 60 horses that the BHA’s favoured barrister, Graeme McPherson QC, has bequeathed (not exactly, but you know what I mean!) to them. McPherson was more the money man than the day-to-day trainer, and graceful withdrawal from the licensee position in favour of giving it official satellite yard status is bound to have beneficial results.

Already several former McPherson horses have shown improved form since the merger and if Fergal intends maintaining his fast pace – 11 wins in the last fortnight – he needs the extra ammunition.

He stepped in with the Listed bumper winner Bonttay on the Saturday of the meeting and as she and stable-companion Leading Theatre led a big field up the hill you could imagine both being high-class jumpers further down the line, an opinion the trainer upheld with a snatched comment: “two lovely fillies” as he walked by. The stable seems to have a bigger proportion of fillies than any of their main rivals, but that merely confirms assistant and partner Sally Randell’s assertion that “they are cheaper to buy”.

Success attracts owners, as the Skeltons illustrate, and now new owners are flocking to the softly spoken Fergal. They had a new owner with them at the sale after racing on Friday and he came away with lot 1, Poetic Music, a debut winner of a Market Rasen bumper for John Butler, at £60,000. “She was our number one at the sale too. I’m delighted we got her”, Sally said.

Two-horse races rarely capture the attention of the racegoer, but Friday’s two-and-a-half mile novice chase in which fencing newcomer My Drogo, a brilliant unbeaten hurdler last winter for Dan Skelton, was meeting Henry de Bromhead’s four-time chase winner Gin On Lime.

The younger Gin On Lime, a mare, had penalties which should have ensured My Drogo’s favouritism and so it proved, the home runner 4-9 with 7-4 against Gin On Lime.

Then at the second-last fence, when Skelton was manoeuvring his mount to challenge on the stands side, he hit the fence hard and could not maintain the partnership. Meanwhile on the inside, Gin On Lime also blundered but as she started to sink to the floor Rachael Blackmore did a passable impression of all those rodeo tricks she must have seen in cowboy films and simply stayed glued to the saddle.

The mare recovered her equilibrium with Blackmore soon back in charge and they set off to the final obstacle which Gin On Line crossed with no further problems. Blackmore had been the darling of the last spectator-limited Cheltenham Festival and here, with the aid of her main supporter De Bromhead, was revealing a new sphere of excellence.

If day one was a major setback for the brothers Skelton, on Saturday the wheel of fortune turned with another spectacular run by Third Time Lucki, the first domestic candidate for the Arkle Chase and a welcome one with all that talent waiting to reveal itself on the other side of the Irish Sea.

Maybe it was a job only half done, but two exaggerated celebrations of Harry Skelton as he crossed the line in front twice in succession yesterday showed how much it all means to win at the home of steeplechasing. First he was in splendid isolation on the always-talented Nube Negra in the Schloer Chase and then the long-time absentee West Cork got the better of Adagio and No Ordinary Joe after a battle up the hill in a high-standard Greatwood Hurdle.

Winning big handicap hurdles with horses after a layoff has been part of the Dan Skelton DNA for some time and West Cork was a prime candidate for such a project. Absent since his second in the Dovecote Hurdle in February last year behind Highway One O Two, he had been dropped 5lb for that Grade 2 second place from the 139 he had earned by his easy defeat of a Nicky Henderson 1/3 shot at Huntingdon.

That generosity by the handicapper was the final piece in the puzzle for the stable whereas top-weight Adagio, only a four-year-old, had been assessed to the hilt on his form of last winter. The third horse No Ordinary Joe pulled hard from the outset yet was still there with a big shout starting up the hill. If Nicky can get this unexposed type to settle better there is no limit to the potential of J P McManus’ gelding.

Nube Negra’s victory, emphatically pegging back one previous Queen Mother Chase winner in Politologue and ending the hitherto unbeaten course record of Put The Kettle On, the reigning champion but one who was never going yesterday, was deeply impressive.

It certainly was not lost on the bookmakers, who promoted him to near the top of this season’s market on the two-mile championship, nor on the younger Skelton, who not satisfied merely with standing in the saddle and pointing to the crowd as they crossed the line, then sated his elation with a rapid-fire first pump. He might find it harder to peg back Brian Hughes this winter, but as he says, he has some great horses to ride.

Some jockeys win a championship and simply want more. Harry Skelton will take another one if it comes, but he’s not going to do the running around riding out and touting for rides on other people’s horses. Why would he with animals of the ability of those Cheltenham mounts?
- TS

10 Minute Preview: Cheltenham, Friday 23rd October

23 October 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

In this very quick (11 minute) video, I highlight a couple of horses I'm interested in at Cheltenham's Showcase meeting this afternoon. Both are proven in conditions and have a good chance to outrun their odds. Both are easy to find using Geegeez Gold's Instant Expert tool.

See what you think...

And don't forget our special Winter Season Ticket offer, which will give you access to all of these brilliant tools for the entire National Hunt season for just £149.

Check that out here

NH Season Fast Starters

10 October 2018/in Jon Shenton/by Jonny11

As I’ve alluded to in previous articles I would consider myself more of a flat game specialist, writes Jon Shenton. However, with the onset of winter and the monumental battle of wills around when to put the heating on, perhaps you could argue that my timing is less than impeccable in terms of becoming a contributor to Geegeez.

Data are data, though – and in some ways the fact that I’m not invested so much in the history, the characters and the equine stars of the show arguably means I can be more objective about what I’m looking at. In other words, the data can speak for themselves. Every day is a school day and I’m hopeful that I can build some profitable and interesting angles to keep things ticking over during the cold, dark months when I’m wrapped in a blanket because I’m too tight to fire up the boiler!

In this article, I will try to unearth a bit of early season value with regard to the winter game. That said, and as a starter concession, I still can’t work out officially when the National Hunt season starts.

As ever a reminder that analysing past performance is no guarantee of future spoils; but, as a minimum, it should help in generating ideas and approaches for evolve our knowledge and therefore our betting skill.

Let’s start with a broad-brush approach evaluating National Hunt runners by trainer during the months of October and November. This time all the data have been crunched using the Query Tool on this very site, any runners on or after 7^th October 2018 are not included.

The table above displays trainers ordered by the best return on investment (ROI) at starting price (SP). Encouragingly, there are nine of them returning over 10% without diving any deeper.

Top of the tree and first cab off the rank is Henry Oliver, the Worcestershire-based trainer who is returning a very substantial 61% over the period in question: it’s stating the completely obvious but that’s worth more than a quick glance. First stop is to check the context of this apparent seasonal bounty, it may be that Mr Oliver is an all year-round cash cow.

If you backed every Oliver NH runner from January 2012 you would have a neat 5% return to SP with 90 winners from 534 bets. Not quite ‘cash cow’ status but there are certainly worse ways to put your money on the line. The below graph shows how the 26.7 points of profit is split by month.

First thing to note is that, like a number of NH trainers, the summer months are fallow for Oliver’s charges. December aside, Oliver is operating at a profitable level over the winter months and I wouldn’t put you off tracking all stable runners over the core NH season so certainly a trainer to follow.

However, we started searching for early season value and clearly November sticks out like Brian Blessed playing hide and seek, returning 94% profit to ROI. The 20% October ROI is worth noting, too.

Trying to dive deeper into those autumnal runners, evaluating variables such as obstacle type, race class, horse age or date of recent run doesn’t generate anything of real material value. If you’re nit-picking, Oliver’s horses are 0/11 for runs greater in distance than 2m 6f in those months and 5/58 overall, something to keep an eye on.

The last metaphoric hurdle is to understand the consistency aspect of the performance.

The table below shows Oliver’s October/November runs by year. Maybe a little streaky but scintillating performance in 2013, 2015, and in particular 2017, with a bit of a washout in 2016. Only one losing year though (excluding 2018 thus far for hopefully obvious reasons) means that this is solid enough to go on the list!

Suggestion: Back all Henry Oliver runners in October/November at 20/1 or less

The second luminary of the list is Fergal O’Brien, who quite simply has the best (in my opinion) and most entertaining twitter profile of all of the trainers, well worth a follow (@FOBracing) if you’re active on that medium. The stable contains relative household names such as Chase The Spud, Cap Soleil, and their first Grade 1 winner Poetic Rhythm to name but three of them.

There is no doubt the yard has impressive credentials and performance has been very strong over recent years. If you backed every single stable runner at SP from January 2012 you’d walk away with 3.7% more cash than you invested.

I think there are angles aplenty when it comes to O’Brien, most of which are for another day but with specific reference to the early season view there are a couple of options to home in on for profit. The first is National Hunt race code

All profitable, which is nice. The pertinent angle for me though is his performance in bumpers, where O’Brien has nearly double the volume of winners than expected with a 186% return to boot. Yes, the sample size is small, but within the data there are ten winners from horses making their debut (from 22), indicating that the yard gears up to get quality horses (or horses ready to win) out on the track in the months of October and November. Generally speaking, the later in October, the better as the record is 1/11 from the 1^st-16^th.

Profit in relation to hurdles and fences is quite small over those two months; however, if we zoom in a little closer there is a quite telling split in monthly performance, again it looks like the stable is peaking in November.

It’s not an absolute rule, and certainly doesn’t mean that a horse on the track on the 1^st November is in different shape to one on 31^st October, but it does indicate generally that as we start heading towards the big November Cheltenham meeting, the O’Brien yard picks up pace and is a definite one to follow closely.

Suggestion 1: Back all O’Brien NHF runners in late October/November at less than 20/1 SP

Suggestion 2: Back all O’Brien Chase and Hurdle runners in November at less than 20/1 SP

Moving to the trainer in the bronze medal position in the opening table, Harry Whittington: the Lambourn-based outfit is growing rapidly, currently housing nearly 50 horses with an increasing number of runners per year. I like these yards that are growing, it often means they’re on an upwards trajectory and are worth closer review.

First port of call is checking the race type in the table below, a small number of runners but the bumper aspect doesn’t look entirely compelling so I’m happy enough to exclude and keep a watching brief.

Again, evaluating the profile of Whittington’s hurdle and chase runners across the whole year gives an interesting picture in terms of P&L. The graph below shows that very same P&L by month to a £1 level stake, it’s fair to say that Q4 looks quite compelling – another yard that’s fast out of the blocks for the new season.

If we analyse the October to December runs in terms of race class as a differentiator there is a further shard of light to assist profitable punting.

The basement C5 races are easy enough to ignore in punting terms, most of them crossing over with the NHF group we already discounted; the Class 1 & 2 are less straightforward, particularly if the yard’s expansion means they may be knocking on the door of the higher echelons of the racing ladder. Here and now I’d be inclined to back the C3 & C4 horses and track the C1/2 runners for signs of improvement or add to a shortlist to back on their relative merits.

Suggestion: Back all Harry Whittington’s October, November and December Chase/Hurdle runners at less than 20/1 in Class 3 or 4 races.

The final trainer I’m going to run through from the initial table is Venetia Williams, largely due to her volume of runners: to deliver a 17% ROI across 440 runners in the months of October/November from 2012 onwards is impressive and merits closer scrutiny. That’s not to say all of the other trainers are not worthy of further investigation and I’d definitely be inclined to sharpen the focus on Messrs Pauling and Keighley in particular. Have a play on QT yourself and maybe post anything of interest (or otherwise) in the comments below.

Returning to Venetia Williams, the Grand National-winning trainer has a profitable record during the months in question, but the below table tells a stark tale. Clearly, Williams has a knack for getting her cavalry of chasers ready early in the season

Again, if we look specifically at the month, the record in November is much stronger than that of October.

Perusing the “Venetia” page at her website www.venetiawilliams.com the following sentence caught my eye:

“Since then Venetia's career has flourished. Never one to expose her horses to the high risk of summer ground, each year Venetia can be seen with the big Saturday winners during the core NH season”

There is a common belief that Williams’ runners love soft turf, and the statement above also seems to indicate a preference to avoiding the risks associated with summer ground. On Geegeez we like facts to back up a theory, so the table below shows Venetia’s chase runners in November by official going.

While there is confirmation that Williams’ runners prefer a softer surface, it is worth noting that the stereotyped ‘hock deep’ runner from this yard fares less well than those encountering merely ‘winter ground’, i.e. good to soft or soft.

There is one mild concern with the overall angle though, namely 2017 performance, showing a loss of 28%, this is also on the back of a moderate 2016. It could be this angle has run its natural course, albeit I will be adding it to my own armoury this November. Williams had a very quiet spell last winter, alluding to a potential problem in the yard so I’m just about happy enough to strike a line through 2017. This is one for keen observation though.

Oh, and incidentally the Saturday assertion in the quoted sentence does have a degree of credence too.

Suggestion: Back all Venetia Williams November Chasers on Good to soft or softer ground with a 20/1 or less SP (with caution)

- Jon Shenton

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