Tag Archive for: Frankel

Sires on the Sand: All Weather Stallions To Note

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It has been a while since I have looked at sire stats so, with the winter all-weather (AW) season just getting underway, I felt now was a good time to revisit this area, writes Dave Renham.

Introduction

I know from past experience that certain sires perform better on the all-weather than on turf and vice versa. Other sires have distance preferences, some come to hand early with their two-year-olds, and so on; spotting key sire patterns can therefore help our betting, especially with less exposed runners and those trying a surface (or distance or going) for the first time. My main focus in this piece will be on the racing surface, to try and uncover some patterns rather than look purely for bottom line profits. Obviously, I will share profit and loss data where appropriate, both Industry SP and Betfair SP.

I have looked at UK all-weather data going back to the beginning of 2017, although I have ignored Southwell fibresand results as that surface is defunct now in Britain and Ireland. For the record, the last fibresand race at Southwell was held on 15th August 2021. Since then, specifically the 7th December 2021, they have raced on a tapeta surface.

For those unfamiliar with sire articles, let me briefly offer some background. Sires are the fathers of the respective horses and they generally have some sort of influence on their progeny (offspring).  For example, if the sire was originally a sprinter there is a good chance that his progeny will perform better at sprint distances than over, say, marathon trips. Sires also vary in quality which will obviously influence the horse in terms of inherent ability. Some sires, for example, achieve around one win in every five starts with their progeny, others are nearer one win in 20.

Let's now look at some individual sire stats with a view to all-weather racing.

All-Weather Sires

Aclaim

Aclaim had his first runners in 2021 having last raced on the track in 2017. He enjoyed an excellent racing career winning seven of his 15 starts including a Group 1 success in his last ever race. As a three-year-old he raced primarily over 6f, but his two Group wins (as a four-year-old) came over 7f. In his second year as a sire, he landed his first Group 1 success when Cachet won the 1000 Guineas, and already in his fledgling sire career there seem to be some emerging patterns. Firstly, his two- and three-year-olds have performed better over 5f to 7f than they have over further. Secondly, and importantly as far as all-weather racing is concerned, there seems to be a big difference in performance as regards Polytrack versus Tapeta.

 

The sample size is decent and other metrics correlate with these figures. Firstly, the A/E index sees Aclaim’s Polytrack figure at 1.08, the Tapeta figure is down at 0.83. Secondly, the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures for Aclaim’s Polytrack runners stands at 55.8 with the Tapeta one only 49.2. Aclaim’s current record at Southwell has been particularly poor with just 6 wins and 9 placed runners from 80 runners – the PRB figure is a lowly 41.2.

A comparison I would like to share now is comparing horses that produced a decent performance on Tapeta last time out (LTO). This table contains data for horses that won or finished less than three lengths off the winner on Tapeta last time out, specifically focusing on which surface they raced on next time after that good run on Tapeta:

 

 

Those runners switching to Polytrack have done extremely well, albeit from a small sample. The PRB figure helps to give smaller datasets more credence as it stands at a mighty 65.9% of rivals beaten. Those remaining on their seemingly unfavoured AW surface of Tapeta have really struggled to back up that good run.

Another noteworthy difference can be seen when we examine the performance of male horses versus female horses. The win percentage strike rates are in the graph below:

 

 

Male runners have outperformed their female counterparts with a strike rate that is nigh on double. As a general rule males win more often than females on the sand, but the overall difference is nowhere near this stark. Also, when we examine Aclaim’s turf gender stats we see that there is only 0.6% between their respective strike rates (male 10.9% v female 10.3%).

Aclaim is a relatively new sire but there seem to be some strong AW patterns that we need to be aware of over the coming months.

Belardo

Belardo won two Group 1s in his racing career - the Dewhurst as a juvenile, and the Lockinge as a four-year-old. As a sire his first runners graced the track in 2020 and he has performed well to date, scoring around once in every eight starts. However, there is a big difference between his record on turf and all-weather, as the table below highlights:

 

 

The win-and-place percentages correlate well with the win only percentages, standing at 35.4% for turf runners and just 28.2% for AW runners. Likewise, the A/E indices reflect this disparity, at 1.03 (turf) and 0.75 (AW) respectively. Belardo progeny when starting favourite on the sand have struggled, as one might expect, winning 11 of 55 starts (SR 20%) for hefty losses of 48p in the £ to SP, 45p to BSP.

There is also a difference when it comes to AW surface. Belardo progeny have not enjoyed the Polytrack surface whereas Tapeta win and placed figures are much stronger. The bar chart below illustrates this fact:

 

 

There is one important stat to share before moving on and that is when it comes to distance. Belardo runners are much better over further when racing on the AW as the table below shows:

 

 

If you are looking to back a Belardo runner this winter, I would focus on distances of 1m2f or more. It should be noted that we see the same distance bias with his progeny on the turf.

Dark Angel

Dark Angel’s life on the racecourse lasted just one year when, as a two-year-old, he won four times including the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. Dark Angel is now 19 and edging towards the end of his stud career, but his fee remains high at £60,000. Dark Angel progeny seem equally effective on the all-weather and the turf which means we can be hopeful that good turf form for any of his progeny will be replicated on the sand. Indeed, horses that have been previously won and/or been placed on turf and which are now having their first run on the AW have won an impressive 24% of the time. However, backing all 176 qualifiers would not have turned a profit but it does support the earlier comment about being equally effective on both surfaces.

Dark Angel was a speedy juvenile racing primarily over 5f and 6f, and his progeny seem to prefer sprint distances, too. Here are the distance splits for Dark Angel’s runners since 2017 on the sand in terms of win percentage:

 

 

Runners over six furlongs or shorter have won twice as often as those trying trips beyond 1m3f. We see a very similar distance pattern on the turf although it is slightly less pronounced.

Dark Angel is known by anyone who uses sire stats in their betting to be a sire whose offspring perform best at sprint trips, but the AW value has been with those racing over 1m½f to 1m 2f. The graph above shows that the win strike rate holds up well, and backing all Dark Angel runners over this distance band would have yielded a profit of £65.38 (ROI +18.3%) to BSP. To SP you would have suffered very small losses but remember this is assuming we are backing all qualifiers blind without any other considerations. The A/E index for this distance group is 0.96 which suggests to me that some of these runners at least have started at value prices, possibly due in part to the prejudice about Dark Angel progeny attempting slightly longer distances. It seems clear to me that Dark Angel progeny have the scope to be effective up to 10f; anything longer and then their lack of stamina does start to come into effect.

Fountain Of Youth

Fountain Of Youth is not a particularly well-known sire, and that may be all the more reason to take note. He has not really fired as a sire just yet, and this especially true on the all-weather. Here are his turf versus AW progeny data:

 

 

The BSP profit figures for the turf do not jump out at me as much as the success rate. On the sand progeny of Fountain Of Youth have scored around 2½ times less often than they have done on the turf. Not only that but he has sired some well fancied runners on the sand despite this overall record. 57 horses sired by Fountain Of Youth have run on the AW when positioned in the top three of the betting, but only six have won (SR 10.5%) for SP losses of £31.17 (ROI –54.7%). Even to BSP the figures are dreadful showing a loss of £29.65 (ROI -52.02%). He's a sire to avoid this winter but maybe to keep a closer eye on when the grass action resumes in the spring.

Frankel

The great Frankel should need no introduction. As a racehorse he won 14 races from 14 starts, ten of those were Group 1s. He was definitely one of the greatest ever horses to grace a racetrack. As a sire he has done extremely well to date, his progeny winning over 18% of their races. On the turf his strike rate stands at 18.8%, on the AW a smidge lower at 18.2%. The main reason I wanted to highlight Frankel is the consistency his runners have displayed across the six UK AW tracks. His win strike rate across them varies only by 3.3% between the ‘best’ and the ‘worst’, while five of the six hit over 18%. The graph below shows the splits:

 

 

For the record, the lower strike rate at Kempton is mainly down to the fact that when Frankel’s progeny have run there the average field size has been bigger than at the other tracks.

Frankel’s offspring have struggled, however, once they hit the age of six. The table below shows the age stats and there has been a serious drop off once they reach that age:

 

 

Focusing in on the age six-plus group, such horses that started in the top three in the betting won just five times from 43 qualifiers (SR 11.6%) for SP losses of 68p in the £ (66p to BSP). I would be very wary of backing Frankel’s runners aged six or older this winter and market confidence would not change my mind.

Before moving on, in terms of distance preference, 1m4f to 1m7f proved the most successful by far on the sand for Frankel progeny. Horses that ran within this distance range, when starting favourite or second favourite, won an impressive 51 times from 113 (SR 45.1%) for an SP profit of £21.60 (ROI +19.1%); to BSP this improves a little to +£29.31 (ROI +25.9%).

Harry Angel

Harry Angel was a top sprinter that won five of his 12 starts comprising two Group 1 successes and three Group 2s. He had his first runners as a sire in 2022 and he has already had eight Group winners across the globe including a Group 1 success in Australia with Tom Kitten.

Let us look at turf flat versus all-weather results for Harry Angel; they make interesting reading:

 

 

We can see much stronger figures on the AW and the A/E indices correlate with 1.13 for the sand versus 0.84 for the turf. It should be stressed that it is still early days in his sire career and the gap between the AW and turf numbers may close. However, any horse that has acted on the turf is highly likely to act on the sand. Indeed, horses that finished first or second LTO on the turf, when switched next time to the all-weather, have won 11 of 26 starts (SR 42.3%) for returns of 19p in the £ to SP, 26p to BSP.

I for one will be looking out for horses sired by Harry Angel this winter.

 

Lethal Force

Lethal Force as a racehorse was a top sprinter winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup in the same year (2013), both Group 1 status. As a sire he has performed solidly with a win rate of around one in nine, and on the turf his progeny definitely prefer a firmer surface. On good to firm or firmer his win rate improves to one win in seven.

In terms of the all-weather, like Aclaim, Lethal Force offspring seem to prefer Polytrack over Tapeta:

 

 

The differences are arguably not as strong as they were for Aclaim, but they seem significant especially considering the big sample size. The PRB figures also favour Polytrack with a 52.6% figure compared to the Tapeta figure of 48.6%. Also, if we focus on runners that started in the top three in the betting, the correlation is positive with the overall splits as follows:

 

 

Clearly, fancied horses do better on the Polytrack when it comes to the progeny of this sire.

Another stat worth sharing is that his male and female runners have performed equally well in terms of their AW strike rate. In fact, the females have shaded it (10.9% v 10.7%), and if we compare their A/E indices we see that the fillies and mares have an excellent figure of 0.99; the males are down on 0.81. Female runners have offered good value.

Lethal Force no longer stands as a sire, so make the most of the next couple of years as there will be fewer opportunities thereafter to take advantage of the Polytrack/female edge.

Wahington DC

Washington DC is another sire early in his career, but the initial stats suggest a bias to all-weather racing. Here are the current splits:

 

 

As I said previously, it is early days in terms of sire data for Washington DC, but all the positive signs are currently pointing towards the AW. The tapeta record to date is particularly good with 19 wins from 107 (SR 17.8%) for an SP profit of £40.51 (ROI +37.9%); to BSP it stands at an enhanced +£84.28 (ROI +78.8%). It should also be noted that male Washington DC runners on the AW are currently winning twice as often as female runners.

 

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Sires In General

To finish this article I'd like to share some general data for a bunch more sires who we should see appearing regularly on the sand this winter. I have published win percentages (Win SR%), each way percentages (win & placed %s) and A/E indices. First let us look at some gender-related stats for each:

 

 

Australia, Night of Thunder and Zoustar all see stronger male stats than female stats across the three metrics. Havana Grey is one of two sires where the trend is with female progeny outperforming males across the board, Too Darn Hot being the other. Havana Grey’s female runners have turned a small blind profit to BSP, and their performance has been particularly good on Polytrack, more especially at Lingfield.

Now let’s compare Polytrack with Tapeta stats:

 

 

Too Darn Hot is the stand-out in terms of Polytrack outperforming Tapeta across all three metrics. Blue Point progeny seem to have an edge on Tapeta. The remaining sires seem roughly as effective on both surfaces.

Finally, a look at the two-year-old and three-year-old data:

 

 

Blue Point’s three-year-olds have stronger stats across the board compared to his juveniles; likewise, Kingman. Invincible Army’s win stats suggest 3yos have completely outshone their younger counterparts but the each way stats imply something nearer parity. Calyx is a young sire, and it looks currently that his 2yos perform exceptionally well. Zoustar has figures that correlate with the fact that his 2yos are better betting propositions than his 3yos.

Sire research is an inexact science, but I hope this piece has given readers some interest and hopefully you will take some useful nuggets away to help your AW betting this winter.

- DR

Joorabchian swoops for Frankel yearlings to make waves at Tattersalls

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Kia Joorabchian was extremely busy on day one of the Tattersalls Book One sale as he signed for a trio of Frankel yearlings costing a staggering eight million guineas.

The businessman, who runs his racing interests under the Amo Racing banner, was the successful bidder after a prolonged battle to acquire Lot 68, a Frankel filly out Aljazzi bred by Newsells Park Stud.

With the dam a five-time winner with a Group Two victory to her name and the sire needing no introduction, the hammer dropped at extraordinary 4,400,000 guineas – the second-highest lot ever sold at the Book One sale. And Joorabchian showed he was not quite finished when Lot 72 hit the ring soon after.

Another filly by Frankel, this time the yearling in question was by Alwilda and therefore a full-sister to Kirsten Rausing exceptional mare Alpinista, winner of the 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Joorabchian went to 2,500,000 guineas for the bay, before returning to the ring to purchase a Frankel colt out of Atone for 1,100,000 guineas and a Sea The Stars colt out of Zahratty for 750,000 guineas.

He told Tattersalls: “We need strong-pedigreed fillies, and we have a lot of horses going to stud in the next year, such as Bucanero (Fuerte) and King Of Steel, it will be this year or next year we will have to make a decision soon, and we have Persian Force already at stud. We need to back them, otherwise we are just going to get left behind – we have to back our stallions to have a chance of winning.

“It is very difficult to buy such mares because the likes of Juddmonte, Coolmores, Shadwells, all the big guys own all the big mares. So we have to come out here and hope that what we are buying in terms of pedigrees will make us competitive.

“It is very hard to buy (such pedigrees) after the yearling stage – once a filly has won a Group One you are in very high prices, so you have got to try to get them earlier and hope that they go on well.”

He added: “Frankel has had huge success, and he just keeps on producing – the Matron Stakes was a real eye-opener, four of the field were by Frankels and one Too Darn Hot. You look at all the Frankels and what they are doing, these amazing mares and fillies, you just have to back him.”

Bloodstock agent Alex Elliott accompanied Joorabchian and said: “Kia is ready for the operation to prove itself at the next echelon and that is where we are trying to get to and that is why we need to get into these families. The fact that these horses are staying here is huge for British racing and we should all be huge cheerleaders for it.”

Of the sale-topper, Elliott added: “All the teams select the best horse and it is who blinks first, and fair play to Kia he certainly did not blink, I think I did!

“This filly has got through most of the hoops – she is by the right stallion, she is out of a good Shamardal mare, she is from a great farm, she has come to a sale, she has shown she is in the top echelon of horses, now she has got to keep going!”

And of Lot 72, he said: “That pedigree, a sister to an Arc winner, there is not a lot to tell you that we don’t all know!

“Kia has been in the game for a certain amount of years now, and to compete at the top table you have to have the best pedigrees – it is the only way to compete consistently.

“Amo has got to a level now that it is ready to try to do that, and that filly has just about the best pedigree in the book. It doesn’t get any better than that. She is a fine, big, scopey filly, she is worth a hell of a lot of money residually. We will see how she goes, we will take our time, it is very much a late-developing family and she looks that physically.”

Bedtime Story leads home Frankel one-two for O’Brien

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Bedtime Story upset the script when getting the better of strongly-fancied stablemate Giselle in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden at Leopardstown.

Both of Aidan O’Brien’s debutants are impeccably-bred daughters of Frankel, but the latter carried more confidence as the 8-11 favourite, with Ryan Moore on board.

However, Moore never quite looked comfortable on Giselle, who is out of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Newspaperofrecord, and despite staying on well enough, she had no answer to the late surge of 5-1 shot Bedtime Story.

The winner, herself out of dual Nunthorpe victor Mecca’s Angel, who has already produced one classy offspring in Content, put in a more professional performance under Wayne Lordan and quickened up to score by a length and a quarter.

O’Brien’s representative Chris Armstrong said: “They are two lovely fillies going forward. There wasn’t much between them at home, and it was a tough choice for Ryan.

“Both fillies were quite green through the race and Wayne’s filly probably got an easier run at it.

“Before the race, they were both in the mix for the Chesham and you can’t really take much away from Ryan’s filly. We’ll see how they come through it and at the moment they are both in the mix.

“Wayne said when she steps up in trip again, she will be a fine filly for the backend.

“She has plenty of class and has an unbelievable pedigree.”

Regally-bred Kikkuli one to note in the Juddmonte ranks this year

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Kikkuli could be Juddmonte’s “dark horse for the year” as he prepares for the early stages of his three-year-old season.

A half-brother to the mighty Frankel and by the owners’ Classic-winning sire Kingman, he is the last foal out of Kind and is fittingly trained at Beckhampton by Harry Charlton, the training facility from which Kind blitzed her way to two Listed victories during her on-track career.

With such a regal bloodline, there was plenty of excitement surrounding the colt’s Newmarket debut towards the end of last season, where Kikkuli showed plenty of promise to keep on for second behind subsequent Listed scorer Zoum Zoum.

The third from that seven-furlong maiden, Balmacara, has recently given the form a timely boost and connections are hopeful there is plenty of untapped potential still to be seen from Kikkuli this term.

“Harry is happy with the horse and feels like the horse has done well from two to three, he has got a lot stronger and is training nicely,” said Juddmonte’s European racing manager Barry Mahon.

“His debut is good form and I think Kikkuli was ready for a day out that day. Harry had said he was far from the finished article.

“It’s good form and we would like to think there could be some improvement to come, so he could be a dark horse for the year.”

Harry Charlton will oversee Kikkuli's three-year-old campaign
Harry Charlton will oversee Kikkuli’s three-year-old campaign (Mike Egerton/PA)

Kikkuli is set to stick to calmer waters for the time being with the goal of shedding his maiden status in the early stages of the campaign, while the hope from his team is that he could blossom into a big-race contender by the time Royal Ascot arrives later in the summer.

“We will probably start off low key with him and go for a maiden or a novice and then just see how we go,” continued Mahon.

“If he is going to make into good horse, then it will be probably from Royal Ascot time onwards he will be stepping into those good races.

“But if we can get a maiden or a novice done in the next six weeks or so it would be great and we can just move up slowly from there.”

Frankel to join Dubawi as most expensive stallion

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Frankel will command a joint-record stud fee of £350,000 in 2024 following another successful campaign for his progeny this season.

The 15-year-old, who stands at Juddmonte’s Banstead Manor Stud in Newmarket, enjoyed more Classic success in 2023, with 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean and Oaks heroine Soul Sister featuring among 11 individual Group One victors.

Juddmonte International star Mostahdaf and Ascot Gold Cup ace Courage Mon Ami were also on that list, alongside Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf scorer Inspiral.

Frankel was again a big hit at this year’s leading auctions, siring the top two lots at Tattersalls’ October Yearling Sale, worth 2,000,000 and 1,600,000 guineas respectively, as well as the most expensive purchase at the Goffs Orby Sale in Ireland on €1.85 million.

Following a spectacular racing career which yielded 14 straight wins for Sir Henry Cecil, Frankel’s opening stud fee in 2013 was £125,000 and stayed at that level until a £50,000 rise in 2018.

That was upped again to £200,000 in 2022 and £275,000 last year, before joining Dubawi on his new mark for next term.

Duchess of Cornwall visit to Newmarket
Queen Camilla with Rob Bowley and Frankel during her visit to Banstead Manor Stud (Arthur Edwards/The Sun/PA)

Having usurped his own sire Galileo to be the leading stallion in Great Britain and Ireland for 2021, he will regain that crown from Dubawi this year.

Juddmonte UK general manager Simon Mockridge said: “I think it’s fair to say that when he retired as the world’s highest-rated horse, with an unblemished record, he was always going to attract the very best mares.

“However, it is how he has used that opportunity that has been incredible – he’s elevated himself from an elite-level racehorse to a world-class stallion, and that doesn’t always happen.

“His success has been wonderful for racing and for British breeding; it is testament to owners like Prince Khalid (bin Abdullah) and Sheikh Mohammed for standing such fine horses in the UK and Ireland that we have been able to break the US domination that previously occurred.

“Frankel still has that public allure and is a great ambassador for racing – he’s also a wonderful horse to work with, he has a great character and an incredible relationship with his handler, Rob Bowley.”

Tabor likens Dewhurst hero Troy to Frankel

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Coolmore’s Michael Tabor described City Of Troy as “our Frankel” after his superb triumph in the Native Trail’s Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket.

The colt arrived at the track unbeaten after easy wins in a Curragh maiden and the Superlative Stakes, but he was far from a guaranteed contender as the soft ground threatened to scupper his run.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien eventually gave the son of Justify the go-ahead and under Ryan Moore he was sent off the runaway favourite at 8-15.

The juvenile made all the running to cruise to a three-and-a-half-length victory and now the Classics, and indeed a possible Triple Crown bid, beckon.

Owned by Coolmore, a group comprised of John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, the colt has exalted company to contend with but is still regarded as one of the best, if not the best, horse to have ever represented the owners.

City Of Troy and Ryan Moore
City Of Troy and Ryan Moore (Tim Goode/PA)

Tabor was at the Rowley Mile track to witness the victory and was effusive in his praise for a horse he hopes can develop into Coolmore’s answer to the great Frankel, who bowed out unbeaten in 14 starts with 11 of those victories coming in Group One company.

“This horse is our Frankel, I really think that. There is no question in my mind, by his comments, that Aidan thinks this horse is probably the best he’s ever trained,” he said.

“He was nervous with the ground and when you tackle that unknown factor, there’s always a chance that they just won’t do it. He’s got that action, that very low action, but they say that a good horse goes on any ground.

“This is a good horse and he obviously does go on any ground, but I’d say he’ll be much better on top of the ground.

“I know the way Aidan speaks and we’re all optimists – you have to be in life in my opinion, in this game especially – but this horse is special. No question, he is special. He is the real deal.

“Let’s hope he is as popular as Frankel was but he’ll only get that popularity as time goes. Hopefully as time goes on he’ll win all the big races and the accolades will be given to him. I like to talk before the event and I really feel that this horse could be anything.

“It’s always been John Magnier’s dream to win the Triple Crown and we were very unlucky years ago with Camelot, he got beaten a three-quarters of a length in the St Leger.

“The St Leger trip can be a trip too far but let’s take one at a time, to me the Guineas and the Derby are very realistic. Get me a bookmaker that would lay me a price!

“Aidan says this horse doesn’t get tired! Aidan is very enthusiastic, if he doesn’t believe in something then the yard doesn’t believe in it and you have to give people confidence, but I know the way he is and this is something special.”

The owner’s son MV Magnier echoed the dream of finally winning the Triple Crown after Camelot’s agonising defeat.

City Of Troy pulling clear in the Dewhurst
City Of Troy pulling clear in the Dewhurst (Tim Goode/PA)

He said: “It looks like it’s possible. Beforehand I was talking to Ryan and he said the horse that he rode in the Superlative was the best two-year-old that he’s ridden and he would beat any two-year-old he’s seen. That was some confidence going into the race and then afterwards he said he’s definitely the best two-year-old he’s ridden.

“His mother (Together Forever) won the Fillies’ Mile here a few years ago and her sister won the Oaks. Justify, Bob Baffert always said that he was a very good two-year-old but he got injured, he won the Belmont Stakes over a mile and a half so technically, he should get a mile and a half.

“It’s what everybody wants to do, it’s all about the Derby, it’s all about the Triple Crown, it’s really the pinnacle that everybody aims for. I’ll put it to you this way, we’ll keep trying to win the Triple Crown.”

Monday Musings: An Expensive Game

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Last week’s Tattersalls October Yearling Sale Book 1 in Newmarket highlighted the extravagant cost of owning a high-class racehorse, writes Tony Stafford. Top price was two million guineas – yes, Tatts are still in the Dark Ages financially speaking – which actually pales in comparison with some double digit million-dollar sales in Keeneland, Lexington, Kentucky in the1980’s.

It’s still steamy enough, though, even when the Frankel colt in question is shared out between the Coolmore partners and Peter Brant, of whom I spoke last week.

Of course, they didn’t buy only one, but the thought’s just the same. Add up to £100 a day (or more) to that initial investment for their young horse after initially breaking and pre-training, to inhabit one of the premier yards in the business and you begin to understand the extent of the investment.

Then, when this routinely “beautifully bred” individual eventually arrives in his yard, the top trainer is liable to say, “He [or she] will need time. If he/she runs as a two-year-old, it will be in September or October, or we may even have to wait for the all-weather in mid-winter.”

I watched on Thursday in the buffet dining room – no, if you were wondering, I’ve only ever in all my 55 years at this sale been invited once into the posh dining room. Thus, it’s dish of the day (at 18 quid!) for me and John Hancock, bloodstock insurance man extraordinaire, but he couldn’t be there last week due to dog minding duties. He’ll be in his usual spot today onwards though for Book 2 when the prices will have cooled more than somewhat, but not for Dish of the Day!

So, we gathered by the screen, watching the second run of my friend’s horse (he was invited to lunch) at Salisbury. We thought he would win but a combination of soft ground, a longer trip and different and, as it proved, less judicious riding tactics, brought disappointment.

That’s an aside. My point is that this race was worth £5,400 to the winner – the owner gets around 70% of that - second prize was £2,535, third £1,268 and fourth £634. That works out as around two months’ keep being retrieved for the winning owner, without of course the additional fees for the extras needed during his training at home and the now excessive diesel costs of getting the horse there.

Luckily for the winner, another successful project for the Goodwood Owners Group, he was trained nearby at Guy Harwood’s Pulborough stables by David Menuisier. Gail Brown has headed up the now 30 years of the group and this representative of the 2023 intake, Goodwood Odyssey, has 140 members to defray the cost. He was a £50k buy.

Runner-up Sea The Thunder was also trained relatively close at hand, by Ralph Beckett near Andover, Hampshire. This horse was bred and is owned by John and daughter Tanya Gunther, who bought back their son of Kingman for 200,000 guineas last October.

I met the Gunthers later on Thursday at Newsells Park Stud’s cosy entertaining facility adjacent to the boxes where the yearlings from the farm that topped Book 1’s aggregate of sales were housed. I must thank Gary Coffey of Newsells for that invite.

The Hertfordshire nursery recruited the Gunthers’ Without Parole to join their stalwart sire Nathaniel (Enable and Desert Crown, no less) three years ago, and the couple were marking time waiting for the last of three of his yearlings to go through the ring.

In realising 120k, their colt out of Midnight Hush, who looked the part beforehand, was an excellent result for a first-season yearling whose sire stands for only £7,000, so this was a cause for celebration. Six more Without Paroles will be offered this week in Book 2.

Before the Gunther colt’s sale, as I munched a second piece of carrot cake and sipped a follow-up cup of Newsells’ excellent coffee, Tanya kindly gave me a Without Parole keyring, a substantial metallic piece that will help me avoid further losses of my keys. I said to John, “Without Parole probably describes life in any sphere of racing, breeding, training and even writing about it”. He agreed, saying he’d been involved since his mid-20’s. I’m up to more than 55 years now and there’s no sign of it ending and rarely ever a day off.

Back to that Salisbury race. The horses following the runner-up went through the ring for 60, 150, 150 again, 13k (bought as a foal as usual by the shrewd Julie Wood), 170, 78 and 70 while the last horse home never went through a sale ring. That’s an average of a little over 100k – not looking the most equitable of investments all round, so far, you might think. Then again, those that do well, can expect big bids, usually from overseas. That’s the crock of gold at the end of the UK racing rainbow.

The average sale price on the three days of Book 1 was almost 250k. I expect this week’s numerically bigger three days of Book 2 might come close to a six-figure average. In that context it might not be too churlish to suggest owners deserve to be treated generously by racecourses when they do go to the races.

Gail Brown, who also entertains the winning owners in her room within the owners’ bar at Goodwood meetings, will no doubt ensure a good number of “her” syndicate members can get in to see their horses run. Some tracks nowadays have syndicate rooms as well as the normal owner entertainment areas.

Newmarket on Saturday staged a meeting which featured the £165k to the winner Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes for fillies and mares and was won in brilliant style by the favourite Inspiral, trained by John and Thady Gosden for the Cheveley Park Stud, and ridden by a delighted Frankie Dettori.

Earlier on the card, the Tattersalls October Auction Stakes offered a guaranteed £150,000 total prizemoney. Entry in this was restricted to horses that had not been bought in either Books 1 or 2 last year, but for those recruited from the two lesser sales, Books 3 and 4, which will occupy Thursday to Saturday in Park Paddocks and some other lesser Tatts sales through the year.

As ever, it attracted a big field, so it was surprising that more of the owners and their friends did not take the opportunity to enjoy the excellent facilities and greatly improved food offered in the Al Basti Equiworld Owners Lounge, situated in the grandstand on the corner of the track where the horses come out. From there you can watch the races on several screens and even see the finish by looking through the large rear window.

Over the years, Al Basti Equiworld, from Dubai, has been instrumental in doubling the area of the facilities both on the Rowley Mile and during the summer on the July Course. It has been thanks to Michael O’Hagan, Al Basti’s representative in the UK, and Lynda Burton, the energetic, efficient, and very popular manager, that standards (and staff proficiency) have risen sharply over the past couple of years.

Now they compare with those on most major tracks, although they do not have the scope of, say, Chester or Ascot. On Saturday, some friends of a friend were looking for a day’s racing close to Cambridge where the three brothers were meeting for a rare weekend get-together.

When one, the eldest, turned up in shorts, I was horrified, probably still traumatised a dozen years on after my wife and a friend were excluded from the Members’ enclosure (they had the correct badges) for a Friday night meeting on the July Course because they were wearing designer jeans. We left in a huff and went to Cambridge for dinner.

It seems though that anything goes nowadays at the HQ of horse racing and he and his identical younger twin brothers were warmly welcomed, both into the track and the Al Basti room.  The brothers (one medical doctor, the other a scientist in Cambridge) were less acquainted than Mr Shorts, otherwise known as Rowan, with racing but, having enjoyed the day, they promised a repeat should not be long delayed.

They all backed the last winner – always the best one - about half an hour after they got a family picture taken with none other than Frankie, now in relaxed mood in the room after his big win. The photographer? No, not ham-fisted me, but another Derby-winning jockey in Willie Ryan. Frankie and Willie, like me, will both have enjoyed yesterday’s result from the Emirates, as did my son and grandson, the latter having a rare treat on his birthday weekend.

Space will be more at a premium in the Al Basti Equiworld room next Saturday when hopefully City Of Troy, the colt I believe is the best two-year-old I’ve ever seen, will cement his reputation in the Dewhurst Stakes. He’s a 4/7 shot. The day before, Ollie Sangster will be hoping that Shuwari, slowly away when runner-up in the Al Basti Equiworld Rockfel Stakes on the Friday of the Cambridgeshire meeting, when Al Basti sponsored the whole day’s racing, will make amends in the Fillies’ Mile.

As to the Cesarewitch, Hughie Morrison runs two strong candidates in last year’s runner-up Vino Victrix and the three-times placed in the race 10-year-old Not So Sleepy. I would love the latter to win but it will be tough under his penalty.

- TS

Coolmore land 2,000,000 guineas Frankel colt at Tattersalls

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Coolmore saw off Godolphin and Juddmonte to land a Frankel yearling for 2,000,000 guineas on the second day of the Book 1 sale at Tattersalls in Newmarket.

Standing in the gangway, Coolmore’s MV Magnier was determined to secure the beautifully-bred colt, consigned by Anthony Oppenheimer and Hascombe and Valiant Stud.

“He is lovely horse and from a very successful stud in Hascombe, which has bred very good horses in the past and are very good breeders,” Magnier told Tattersalls.

“This is a well-bred horse; Frankel is flying and everyone (from the Coolmore team) liked him – and he goes to Ballydoyle.”

Oppenheimer, who was sat in the ring to see his colt sell, said: “So far we have done quite well, and sold four, and we have more to sell (over the whole of the October Sale).

“There were no regrets at all when he was going around the ring. I did not think we’d get as much as that; I know he is a very nice horses – refuelling the stud’s finances and it can’t do any harm!”

Prince Khalid Abdullah inducted into Hall of Fame

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Prince Khalid Abdullah – owner of such superstars as Frankel, Dancing Brave, Zafonic and Enable – has been posthumously inducted into the Qipco British Champions Series Hall of Fame.

Prince Khalid is just the second person to be recognised within the Hall of Fame’s Special Contributor category, following in the footsteps of the late Queen, who was inducted in 2021.

He was chosen by an independent panel of industry experts in recognition of his outstanding contribution to the sport, his achievements through his breeding and racing operation Juddmonte leaving a lasting legacy, its champions far too many to mention but also including Warning, Arrogate, Rainbow Quest, Dansili and Kingman and many others.

Khalid Abdullah with Andre Fabre, trainer of Zafonic and Xaar
Khalid Abdullah with Andre Fabre, trainer of Zafonic and Xaar (PA)

Prince Khalid’s induction will be officially marked through a special presentation moment at York on Wednesday, on the same day as the Juddmonte International, a race the organisation has supported since 1989.

Douglas Erskine Crum, chief executive of Juddmonte, said: “Prince Khalid was an owner-breeder like no other, with his numerous cherished champions, including perhaps the greatest thoroughbred of them all in Frankel.

“Through his racing and breeding operation, Juddmonte, the Prince has left a legacy which, now under the direction of his sons, Prince Fahad, Prince Saud and Prince Ahmed, continues to have a massive influence on the sport globally, at the same time as giving great pleasure and entertainment to his family.

Sir Henry Cecil with Frankel following his hugely popular victory in the Juddmonte International
Sir Henry Cecil with Frankel following his hugely popular victory in the Juddmonte International (John Giles/PA)

“Prince Khalid would have been very pleased to be recognised by the British horse racing industry in this way and, on behalf of his whole family, I thank British racing and the Qipco British Champions Series Hall of Fame for this exceptional accolade.”

Trained by the late Sir Henry Cecil, Frankel won all 14 of his races, including 10 at Group One level which featured the Juddmonte International.

“He’s the best I have had. I am lucky to have this horse,” Prince Khalid would say of the colt in a rare interview, flashing his warm smile in between questions.

“Let us hope another like him comes along in the future,” he added.

Baaeed the world’s best on turf – and only Flightline ranked higher

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Baaeed was crowned the world’s highest-rated turf horse at the the 2022 Longines World’s Best Racehorse Awards in London.

The William Haggas-trained superstar also finished second to the imperious Flightline in the overall standings and was handed a rating of 135 which is just 5lb shy of the 140 handed to Frankel in 2012, which makes Baaeed the best turf horse to set foot on a racecourse since Sir Henry Cecil’s unbeaten colt.

Although suffering his only defeat in his final racecourse appearance on Qipco British Champions Day, Baaeed captured the imagination by going unbeaten in his first 10 starts.

Having taken the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on his final start at three, it was Group One action all the way at four and having outlined his credentials to be the standout miler of his generation was tasked with proving so in the Queen Anne Stakes which kicked off Royal Ascot.

“I think before Ascot I was at my most nervous because it is the first race of such a prestigious meeting for us,” explained Haggas when asked about the experience of stewarding such a talent throughout his career.

“He was about 1-6 and everyone expected him to win and things can happen in horse racing.”

He continued: “Fortunately he did win and we’ve had a wonderful journey, much like the owners and trainer of Flightline – but we’ve had our own journey and it has been fantastic.

“I wish I could guarantee it would be repeated but I doubt it will.”

Baaeed received his rating of 135 after his performance in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York where the son of Sea The Stars replicated both his sire and Frankel by taking the 10-furlong event in style.

The man in the saddle that day and for the majority of Baaeed’s career was Jim Crowley, who went on to describe the feeling he got when sauntering to success on the Knavesmire.

He said: “It was an experience like I’ve never experienced before, it was like everything happened in slow motion.

“He was just a pleasure to ride, there was never a moment’s worry. When I could go between horses and just keep taking a pull and all season I had never really let the handbrake off. I always knew it was there so when I finally did let go, it was a great feeling.

“Just to hear the crowd clapping was unusual. Normally they cheer, but it was just applause and appreciation.”

Jockey Jim Crowley (left), with Sheikha Hissa Hamdan Al Maktoum and trainer William Haggas following his winning ride on Baaeed in the Qatar Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood
Jockey Jim Crowley (left), with Sheikha Hissa Hamdan Al Maktoum and trainer William Haggas following his winning ride on Baaeed in the Qatar Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood (Steven Paston/PA)

A Shadwell homebred, Baaeed will now stand as a stallion at the operation’s Nunnery Stud and Richard Hills – a key member of the Shadwell team and closely associated with the horse’s preparations – looked back at his achievements with pride, while also highlighting the comfortable Queen Anne victory as the moment Baaeed fever really began to build.

“The most important thing for us was Royal Ascot,” said Hills. “Sheikha Hissa had never been to Royal Ascot before and we were the first race and nervous.

“Angus (Gold, racing manager) and I weren’t sure whether she should come down to the paddock and of course Baaeed, Jim and William did their stuff. Sheikha Hissa then got to lead the horse in which lifted us all and her.

“The journey started from there all the way through to York. We were very proud of him.”

Monday Musings: Charlie the Champ

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After the past two weeks of sales and racing at Newmarket, no wonder Charlie Appleby looked frazzled just after 4.15 p.m. on Saturday as he sat down for a welcome cup of tea, directly opposite my vantage point in a box in the grandstand at Ascot, writes Charlie Appleby.

I said, “You are champion trainer again!”, and the look of brief bewilderment on his face showed that until that point the significance of the outcome of the Qipco Champion Stakes clearly hadn’t properly sunk in.

“Really?”, he asked. I outlined how the £248,000 his Modern Games had earned for second in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes had significantly stretched his lead over close second but overwhelming title favourite, William Haggas. Bayside Boy, a 33-1 shot trained by Roger Varian had got the better of the Godolphin horse while Haggas watched on helpless as he did not have a representative in Europe’s mile championship.

That meant it was all down to the horse of a generation – or so we thought he was.

We had all dutifully turned up at Ascot expecting a coronation. The Queen Consort was there, but it was Baaeed who was supposed to be crowned King of the Turf after what was to be his 11th win from 11 career starts.

So little were his eight rivals considered as serious opposition that he was sent off the 4-1 on favourite. To appreciate the depth of that market confidence, he was entering Frankel territory. His admirers had already attached to him near-Frankel mystique, or even hysteria.

Frankel had been only a marginally shorter price when completing the last of his 14 unbeaten career wins in the same race ten years earlier. He was 11-2 on against five rivals, best of whom were the veteran French gelding Cirrus Des Aigles and his contemporary and old rival, Nathaniel. He beat them readily enough, but it was a performance far less in keeping with his nine prior, mostly spectacular, Group 1 victories.

The question had to be would Baaeed stroll through this final task before following his predecessor to stud? The previous weeks had shown Frankel as the most potent living stallion, comfortably heading for a sire championship with the victory of his daughter Alpinista in the Arc a performance fresh in the memory.

He had also completely dominated the recent Tattersall’s October Yearling Book 1 auction with a string of big-money sales up to the top price of 2.8 million guineas. Nobody in their right mind would believe they could send a mare to him next breeding season for the 2022 fee of £200,000. He’ll be in the Galileo league, probably at least double that figure, neatly spanning the generations from his recently deceased sire and having grown to full maturity and power in the breeding shed.

Her Majesty did the honours in the QE II, presenting Richard Ryan, racing manager of Teme Valley Racing, the prize for Bayside Boy’s unexpected win. Teme Valley were also in action in the Caulfield Cup in Sydney earlier in the day where their Numerian was a close fifth beaten barely a length.

A one-time Joseph O’Brien-trained gelding, Numerian was bred by Joseph’s mother, Anne-Marie O’Brien, and he will no doubt have more paydays in Australia. Last October, State Of Play, trained by Joseph, won the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley in the Teme Valley silks.

Ian Williams, who has had a fruitful connection with Richard Ryan, expressed surprise that his friend had not been able to be in both places at once. “He’ll work it out for next year, no doubt”, said Williams.

The QE II was a tasty if unpredictable aperitif to the main course. Ranged against the Haggas star was the 2021 Derby winner, Adayar, at 6-1, who was fifth in last year’s Champion after a fourth in the Arc, and now back with a bang fresh after that long absence with a smooth win in conditions class at Doncaster. Appleby vowed after that he wanted to take on Baaeed at Ascot. Then there was Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge, a 10-1 shot and Group-race winner earlier in the year at Sandown but held in his forays into top class since.

Add the Irish pair, Stone Age from Aidan O’Brien and 2021 Classic winner Mac Swiney from the Jim Bolger yard and you have a far from negligible task for the favourite. Baaeed’s form leading up to Ascot had been blemish-free, but whereas Frankel had spaced his 14 races over three racing seasons, the later-developing Baaeed raced only from May last year.

Haggas himself had two back-ups, My Prospero, who despite three wins in four this year and a close third, a neck behind Appleby’s ill-fated Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot, was a 22/1 shot. His third runner, Dubai Honour, had less obvious claims, starting 33-1.

If before racing the fear was that the ground would be a potential worry for many horses on the day, the times were very much in line with Chris Stickels’ good to soft, soft in places, assessment. Any attempt to assign Baaeed’s rather stale fourth place behind Bay Bridge, Adayar and stablemate My Prospero to the going therefore makes less sense than simply the cumulative effects of a long, tough season racing at the top level.

The money, expected to be sufficiently in Haggas’ favour via his three contenders, panned out thus. Bay Bridge got £737k for winning, Adayar £279k for second. All three Haggas runners picked up a cheque, but My Prospero’s £139k, Baaeed’s £69k and Dubai Honour’s £17,000 for sixth left them 53 grand short in that single race alone.

Baaed will now retire to stud at a time when Shadwell Farm is starting to resume activity in a buying mode at the sales after the initial selling-off of many hundreds of racing and breeding stock following Hamdan Al-Maktoum’s death. His daughter, Sheikha Hissa, has been a noted presence over here recently and it would have been a fitting send-off for her much-admired father if Baaeed had emulated the feat of Frankel and remained unbeaten.

Racing at the top level is very attritional. The old champ Stradivarius has gone off to stud and his Goodwood Cup conqueror Kyprios bypassed the Champion Long Distance Cup but Trueshan duly turned up and completed a unique hat-trick in the race for Alan King, the Trueshan Owners Group and Hollie Doyle.

The team had been almost inconsolable after the star gelding, in Alan King’s opinion still remembering his ordeal by fast ground and Kyprios at Goodwood, swerved away his chance late on in the Doncaster Cup, going under by a neck to Coltrane. That day, with the trains back to London all screwed by first world problems, I gave a lift to their best-known member, Andrew Gemmell, and his mate Tony Hunt, and all the way back to town Andrew was as despondent as I’ve known him.

The mood was rather different in the winner’s enclosure after Hollie conjured a thrilling rally from her tough, determined ally to avenge that defeat after Coltrane had looked likely to maintain the edge. This time the verdict was a head in the other direction. Two very brave stayers, but Alan King has done wonders to bring his horse back after that chastening experience on the Sussex Downs.

Anyway, to return to the point of the matter. At close of play on Saturday, Appleby had earnings of £5,959,450, a lead of £364,000 give or take a few quid, over Haggas’ £5,595,524. While the title runs to December 31, incongruously with the Jockeys’ title race already done on Saturday, nothing can change its destination.

One major UK flat race remains, next weekend’s Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. Charlie doesn’t think he’ll run anything there, while William doesn’t have an entry, so the £118k will likely go to Coolmore and Ballydoyle who always target the race with a 2,000 Guineas contender. They have plenty of possibles, but their stranglehold could change if Chaldean takes them on. The Dewhurst hero would be the one to beat if Andrew Balding goes for a race in which he has done very well.

In 2021 William Buick battled to the last day of the season before finding Oisin Murphy holding too many aces. This year, with his rival out of the way, it was a cakewalk. Oisin’s return in 2023 will be eagerly awaited. A revived Murphy, three times champion already, would make it a thrilling competition, but if that does not materialise, the prospect is that ever-improving Buick could be in for a long period of supremacy given the power of the Appleby team.

The quality of the trainers at the top of the racing industry in the UK is outstanding. Add Roger Varian to the first two this year and you have three upwardly-mobile Newmarket-based handlers who I’m sure could have succeeded in any other field, as of course could their Berkshire counterpart, Balding. The fact that they have such powerful teams suggests the quartet will be at the forefront of their profession for years to come.

- TS

Monday Musings: The Apples of Charlie’s Eye

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I finally made it to Ascot on Saturday, my first visit to a racecourse since the last day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, writes Tony Stafford. As I drove the last few miles the excitement was almost making me breathless and I was delighted that by waiting until there was an element of normality, my trip was just as I remembered all those wonderful big-race summer afternoons.

The best part, apart from seeing a great winner of a very good King George, was the thing that I, as a now very senior citizen, always regarded as my private, exclusive club. When you’ve been racing in a sort of professional role you get to know hundreds, probably into the thousands, of people in the same narrow environment.

When loads of them stop to ask, “How are you? Long time, no see!” and variations of those sentiments having been stuck mostly at home for 16 months, it is so energising. I always used to say, “Most people my age probably see half a dozen people a day if they are lucky. I go racing three or four days a week and see maybe an average of a hundred or more that I know.”

And Ascot on Saturday was as normal as it ever was. Bars, restaurants and boxes open and fully extended, the always beautifully attired Ascot crowds basking in the better than predicted weather and fast ground befitting the middle of summer.

One person who didn’t make it was the “You’ve been pinged!” trainer of the brilliant Adayar, Charlie Appleby, who had neglected to do what people increasingly have been doing, removing the app from their phones.

Not too many Derby winners have followed their Epsom success with victory in the same year’s King George. It was more commonplace in the first 50 years of the race’s existence after its inauguration in 1951. But in this century, until Saturday only Galileo, Adayar’s grandsire via Frankel, had managed the double.

Appleby therefore made it four mile and a half Group 1 wins since the beginning of June with his two Frankel colts, the home-bred Adayar and his stablemate Hurricane Lane, the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris hero, bred by Philippa Cooper’s Normandie Stud.

Both horses won maidens in the last part of October, Hurricane Lane on debut and Adayar second time out. Both therefore were far less trumpeted at the beginning of this season when again Hurricane Run started with more precocity, indeed until he finished third to Adayar, the apparent third string at Epsom, he was unbeaten.

Adayar’s juvenile victory came in the Golden Horn Maiden at Nottingham, the race name being awarded to the great Derby winner the year after his Classic triumph. Previously it was known as the Oath Maiden Stakes in honour of the 1999 Derby hero owned by the Thoroughbred Corporation, who won the same maiden to get his career on the go the previous autumn.

I thought I would have a look at Charlie Appleby’s 2021 three-year-old complement courtesy of Horses in Training. Charlie had 70 horses of that age listed at the start of the season, 21 fillies and 49 male horses. Of the 21 fillies, eleven are by Dubawi, also the sire of 27 Appleby colts and geldings. Surprisingly, as many as 12 were already gelded at the start of the campaign and at least a couple more have subsequently experienced the unkindest cut.

Appleby had three colts by Dubawi as major candidates for the 2,000 Guineas: Meydan Classic winner Naval Crown, who beat Master Of The Seas that day; Master Of The Seas himself, who went on to win the Craven Stakes; and One Ruler, runner-up to Mac Swiney in the 2020 Vertem Futurity, also went to the Guineas. Master Of The Seas did best, losing out in a desperate thrust to the line with Poetic Flare and, while that Jim Bolger horse has gone on to run in both the Irish (close third to Mac Swiney) and French (easy winner) Guineas, and then dominated the St James’s Palace Stakes, we are yet to see Master Of The Seas again.

Another Dubawi colt to do well has been Yibir, winner of the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket’s July meeting, while the geldings Kemari (King Edward VII) and Creative Force (Jersey Stakes) both at Royal Ascot have been to the fore.

It is noticeable that several of the gelded group have been either difficult to train or simply very late developers.

Meanwhile, the five-strong team of Frankel sons have been nothing short of spectacular. It will be of great satisfaction for the organisation that Adayar is out of a Dubawi mare and not an especially talented one.

What of the other three? One, Magical Land, has been gelded. He won the latest of his seven races for Appleby and has an 80 rating. The others have not been sighted this year. Fabrizio, placed as a juvenile, is a non-winner but Dhahabi is an interesting horse I’d love to see reappearing.

At 3.1 million guineas this half-brother to Golden Horn carried plenty of expectations. He won on debut and, last time in the autumn, was third to One Ruler in a Group 3 at Newmarket. Just the five Frankels, then, and I bet Charlie wishes he had a few more. The list of juveniles shows 48 sons and daughters of Dubawi and 11 by Frankel.

For many years the ultra-loyal and ever agreeable Saeed Bin Suroor was the only and then the principal Godolphin trainer. His stable is now increasingly the junior partner with half of the 140-odd complement listed as four years of age or older, and many of these are probably more suited to the structure of racing in Dubai over the winter. Saeed has three Dubawi three-year-old colts and one filly this year, but none by Frankel. The juveniles listed reveal one by each stallion.

How ironic that in the year of Prince Khalid Abdullah’s death in January, the all-conquering owner of Juddmonte Farms never saw the crowning of Frankel, already the greatest racehorse certainly of the past half-century, as a Derby-producing sire.

He will surely progress again from this situation and, now with Galileo also recently deceased, is in position as the obvious inheritor of his sire’s pre-eminence.

The other younger contenders will take time to earn their prestige and it can only be good for racing that a horse that went unbeaten through 14 races has made such a statement at the top end of the sport.

To win his King George, Adayar had to see off the challenge from the tough Mishriff, stepping forward from his comeback third to St Mark’s Basilica in the Eclipse Stakes. His owner, Prince Abdulrahman Abdullah Faisal, was one of the people I’ve known for half a lifetime that greeted me on Saturday. Also, Adayar had to consign Love to her first defeat for 21 months. The concession of so much weight to a younger colt by an older mare – 8lb – is never easy, but her race didn’t go as expected either.

Her pacemaker Broome missed the break and then only gradually moved into the lead. In the straight Love looked poised and then Mishriff tightened her up on the outside as Ryan Moore was beginning to move her into a challenging position. Having to change course, as the Coolmore filly did halfway up the short Ascot straight, is never the recipe for success.

It is fair to say, though, that Adayar would have won whatever. It will be interesting to see how Appleby shuffles his pack. Someone suggested the St Leger. If you wanted to make Adayar a jumps stallion, that’s what you would do. He won’t go anywhere near Town Moor in September. With due deference to the fifth Classic, he will have much bigger fish to fry.

- TS

Monday Musings: A Minor Miracle in the Numbers

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Most numbers associated with the last two months of life in the UK, first under the imminent threat, and then quickly the awful reality, of the Coronavirus pandemic have been shocking, writes Tony Stafford. More than 28,000 deaths with at least 75% of them in the 75-and-above age group justifying the Government’s initial and apparently over-the-top strictures that it could be several months before those over 70 could be allowed freely to leave home except under highly-limited conditions.

But one statistic which has been little discussed is the most miraculous. The latest detailed data is up to April 22, showing that 119 NHS staff died from the virus. With more than 1.5 million people working throughout the NHS and a further 350,000, taking in temporary staff and also medical workers in the private sector, that means fewer than 1 in 15,000 have died. That said, many more will have been infected in differing degrees of severity and have recovered.

Considering the exposure to patients in hospitals suffering from the virus – Boris Johnson talked of having up to eight nurses and others attending to him during the most severe stages of his stay in ICU – those 119 deaths are truly miraculous. Approaching 200,000 people have been admitted to hospitals suffering from Covid-19. The overall death rate in the total population is closer to 1 in 2,500. In the NHS 60% of those that have died have been age 50 and above.

Numbers have been the key to the Government’s release of details over the last two months with sensitivities in the media and how it would react to the numbers being paramount. You can only draw that conclusion when upon the figure of 20,000 deaths being reached, even though it was inevitable for some time beforehand, it brought the usual BBC and Piers Morgan blame-game hysteria.

Much has been said about the rights and wrongs of allowing Cheltenham to go ahead. For it to have been cancelled, it would have meant a decision at least a week before the March 10 starting date. At that time, the daily briefings were still two weeks off, and the first figure I have found for daily deaths is the 15 on March 15, two days after Cheltenham finished.

Since the end of March I’ve kept a table of the daily fatalities and until early last week, the highest single number was an admittedly-shocking 980 hospital deaths on April 10. Then last Tuesday, with figures clearly on a downward curve among people dying in hospital, for the first time the increasing proportion of fatalities in care homes and elsewhere was included. Now April 10 is revealed to have had an even higher overall number, 1,152, one of eight days when the total death toll exceeded 1,000.

It’s still horrendous, but when the Government’s reaction to the situation initially instructed people to stay home, no single day had yet brought more than the 43 deaths, on Wednesday March 19, by which time I, and many in my advanced age group, was already locked away. The first three-figure “score” was the 149 on Monday March 24 but by eight days later it was 670 and soon after it reached those eight thousand-plus spikes.

As racing fans we’ve been denied so much normal action where, in my case, reading a book every two days, catching up on television and our once-a-week walk were only partial consolation; although somehow I’m almost a stone lighter! But then an hour on Racing TV yesterday brought home the frustration of our missing the scheduled Guineas meeting over last weekend.

It was great to see the last 30 years of what is probably the most significant race in the selection of stallions. Not all of them won the race, notably Dubawi, only fifth in his year to Footstepsinthesand, and both Kingman and Australia just a few years ago, stumped late on by Night of Thunder despite the winner’s across-the-course wanderings in the last 150 yards.

We saw Sea The Stars denying my 33-1 win only ante-post bet on Delegator and Camelot’s narrow defeat of formerly Ray Tooth-owned French Fifteen in two thrillers, but still pride of place goes to the extraordinary Frankel, off like a scalded cat under Tom Queally and thereafter never closer to his pursuers than his six-length winning margin over Galileo Gold. In 14 unbeaten runs, this highest-rated horse of all time gets my vote over another Guineas hero, Brigadier Gerard from the 1970’s, and Sea Bird II, a brilliant Derby winner from my youth a decade earlier. Can Frankel’s romp really have been nine years ago?

The timely reminder of the pre-eminence of that race comes with racing deriving positive vibes from recent meetings with Government. May 15 is now being suggested as a likely starting point with Lingfield close to London and Newcastle in the north providing the initial hubs for behind-closed-doors sport. Both have hotels, in the case of Lingfield, part of the grandstand, while Newcastle’s well-appointed Gosforth Park Hotel is a walk along the avenue of rhododendrons which always brightens the spring and especially the summer meetings there.

My first visit to Newcastle was in my Press Association days to cover a jumps meeting one May Bank Holiday in the early 1970’s. Arthur Stephenson dominated the card that early evening and I still remember the leisurely stroll down after lunch in the hotel and the surprising discovery that the horses had gone out of sight behind the trees down the far side. I found it difficult to find them again when they came back into view.

Racing has advantages over other sports in that you need not be there to get the impression that you are; in fact sometimes you get only a limited view of the race compared with viewers at home. A commentator’s crescendo as the horses near the line is much more vital than any crowd noise. The big races that have continued in Hong Kong and Australia without the public have given the UK authorities a blueprint of why and how it should be possible, while as I’ve said before, it must help that the Health Secretary’s East Anglian constituency includes Newmarket.

I haven’t been able to check this fact, but one friend yesterday told me that the Minister is also godfather to one of John Gosden and Rachel Hood’s children. If it is true that can’t hurt either.

The ambitious plan for two weekends of Group races in the lead up to the revised proposed Guineas meeting on the first Saturday of June means that if racing does get the go-ahead, it will start with a flourish. The bookmakers will do wonderful business and I can imagine action-starved horse racing enthusiasts jamming the phone lines and internet connections to get on.

Bookmakers do not always get the best of press coverage, but I was gladdened to hear last week that the 2019-20 Levy yield at £97 million is £2 million higher than the top estimated figure. It seems to make the BHA’s “promise” of races at reduced prize money more than niggardly. Apart from the better races, foreign owners laugh at what’s on offer here day to day. As trainers and owners will tell you, the one thing that never reduces are BHA and Weatherbys’ administration costs.

But in these times, I prefer to take a glass half-full attitude rather than the faux-combative criticism of Government. The Nightingale hospitals haven’t really been needed and within the awful figures, at least one miracle – those 119 deaths where thousands were being predicted – exists whatever the point-scoring after-timers think.

- TS