Sires on the Sand: All Weather Stallions To Note

It has been a while since I have looked at sire stats so, with the winter all-weather (AW) season just getting underway, I felt now was a good time to revisit this area, writes Dave Renham.

Introduction

I know from past experience that certain sires perform better on the all-weather than on turf and vice versa. Other sires have distance preferences, some come to hand early with their two-year-olds, and so on; spotting key sire patterns can therefore help our betting, especially with less exposed runners and those trying a surface (or distance or going) for the first time. My main focus in this piece will be on the racing surface, to try and uncover some patterns rather than look purely for bottom line profits. Obviously, I will share profit and loss data where appropriate, both Industry SP and Betfair SP.

I have looked at UK all-weather data going back to the beginning of 2017, although I have ignored Southwell fibresand results as that surface is defunct now in Britain and Ireland. For the record, the last fibresand race at Southwell was held on 15th August 2021. Since then, specifically the 7th December 2021, they have raced on a tapeta surface.

For those unfamiliar with sire articles, let me briefly offer some background. Sires are the fathers of the respective horses and they generally have some sort of influence on their progeny (offspring).  For example, if the sire was originally a sprinter there is a good chance that his progeny will perform better at sprint distances than over, say, marathon trips. Sires also vary in quality which will obviously influence the horse in terms of inherent ability. Some sires, for example, achieve around one win in every five starts with their progeny, others are nearer one win in 20.

Let's now look at some individual sire stats with a view to all-weather racing.

All-Weather Sires

Aclaim

Aclaim had his first runners in 2021 having last raced on the track in 2017. He enjoyed an excellent racing career winning seven of his 15 starts including a Group 1 success in his last ever race. As a three-year-old he raced primarily over 6f, but his two Group wins (as a four-year-old) came over 7f. In his second year as a sire, he landed his first Group 1 success when Cachet won the 1000 Guineas, and already in his fledgling sire career there seem to be some emerging patterns. Firstly, his two- and three-year-olds have performed better over 5f to 7f than they have over further. Secondly, and importantly as far as all-weather racing is concerned, there seems to be a big difference in performance as regards Polytrack versus Tapeta.

 

The sample size is decent and other metrics correlate with these figures. Firstly, the A/E index sees Aclaim’s Polytrack figure at 1.08, the Tapeta figure is down at 0.83. Secondly, the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures for Aclaim’s Polytrack runners stands at 55.8 with the Tapeta one only 49.2. Aclaim’s current record at Southwell has been particularly poor with just 6 wins and 9 placed runners from 80 runners – the PRB figure is a lowly 41.2.

A comparison I would like to share now is comparing horses that produced a decent performance on Tapeta last time out (LTO). This table contains data for horses that won or finished less than three lengths off the winner on Tapeta last time out, specifically focusing on which surface they raced on next time after that good run on Tapeta:

 

 

Those runners switching to Polytrack have done extremely well, albeit from a small sample. The PRB figure helps to give smaller datasets more credence as it stands at a mighty 65.9% of rivals beaten. Those remaining on their seemingly unfavoured AW surface of Tapeta have really struggled to back up that good run.

Another noteworthy difference can be seen when we examine the performance of male horses versus female horses. The win percentage strike rates are in the graph below:

 

 

Male runners have outperformed their female counterparts with a strike rate that is nigh on double. As a general rule males win more often than females on the sand, but the overall difference is nowhere near this stark. Also, when we examine Aclaim’s turf gender stats we see that there is only 0.6% between their respective strike rates (male 10.9% v female 10.3%).

Aclaim is a relatively new sire but there seem to be some strong AW patterns that we need to be aware of over the coming months.

Belardo

Belardo won two Group 1s in his racing career - the Dewhurst as a juvenile, and the Lockinge as a four-year-old. As a sire his first runners graced the track in 2020 and he has performed well to date, scoring around once in every eight starts. However, there is a big difference between his record on turf and all-weather, as the table below highlights:

 

 

The win-and-place percentages correlate well with the win only percentages, standing at 35.4% for turf runners and just 28.2% for AW runners. Likewise, the A/E indices reflect this disparity, at 1.03 (turf) and 0.75 (AW) respectively. Belardo progeny when starting favourite on the sand have struggled, as one might expect, winning 11 of 55 starts (SR 20%) for hefty losses of 48p in the £ to SP, 45p to BSP.

There is also a difference when it comes to AW surface. Belardo progeny have not enjoyed the Polytrack surface whereas Tapeta win and placed figures are much stronger. The bar chart below illustrates this fact:

 

 

There is one important stat to share before moving on and that is when it comes to distance. Belardo runners are much better over further when racing on the AW as the table below shows:

 

 

If you are looking to back a Belardo runner this winter, I would focus on distances of 1m2f or more. It should be noted that we see the same distance bias with his progeny on the turf.

Dark Angel

Dark Angel’s life on the racecourse lasted just one year when, as a two-year-old, he won four times including the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. Dark Angel is now 19 and edging towards the end of his stud career, but his fee remains high at £60,000. Dark Angel progeny seem equally effective on the all-weather and the turf which means we can be hopeful that good turf form for any of his progeny will be replicated on the sand. Indeed, horses that have been previously won and/or been placed on turf and which are now having their first run on the AW have won an impressive 24% of the time. However, backing all 176 qualifiers would not have turned a profit but it does support the earlier comment about being equally effective on both surfaces.

Dark Angel was a speedy juvenile racing primarily over 5f and 6f, and his progeny seem to prefer sprint distances, too. Here are the distance splits for Dark Angel’s runners since 2017 on the sand in terms of win percentage:

 

 

Runners over six furlongs or shorter have won twice as often as those trying trips beyond 1m3f. We see a very similar distance pattern on the turf although it is slightly less pronounced.

Dark Angel is known by anyone who uses sire stats in their betting to be a sire whose offspring perform best at sprint trips, but the AW value has been with those racing over 1m½f to 1m 2f. The graph above shows that the win strike rate holds up well, and backing all Dark Angel runners over this distance band would have yielded a profit of £65.38 (ROI +18.3%) to BSP. To SP you would have suffered very small losses but remember this is assuming we are backing all qualifiers blind without any other considerations. The A/E index for this distance group is 0.96 which suggests to me that some of these runners at least have started at value prices, possibly due in part to the prejudice about Dark Angel progeny attempting slightly longer distances. It seems clear to me that Dark Angel progeny have the scope to be effective up to 10f; anything longer and then their lack of stamina does start to come into effect.

Fountain Of Youth

Fountain Of Youth is not a particularly well-known sire, and that may be all the more reason to take note. He has not really fired as a sire just yet, and this especially true on the all-weather. Here are his turf versus AW progeny data:

 

 

The BSP profit figures for the turf do not jump out at me as much as the success rate. On the sand progeny of Fountain Of Youth have scored around 2½ times less often than they have done on the turf. Not only that but he has sired some well fancied runners on the sand despite this overall record. 57 horses sired by Fountain Of Youth have run on the AW when positioned in the top three of the betting, but only six have won (SR 10.5%) for SP losses of £31.17 (ROI –54.7%). Even to BSP the figures are dreadful showing a loss of £29.65 (ROI -52.02%). He's a sire to avoid this winter but maybe to keep a closer eye on when the grass action resumes in the spring.

Frankel

The great Frankel should need no introduction. As a racehorse he won 14 races from 14 starts, ten of those were Group 1s. He was definitely one of the greatest ever horses to grace a racetrack. As a sire he has done extremely well to date, his progeny winning over 18% of their races. On the turf his strike rate stands at 18.8%, on the AW a smidge lower at 18.2%. The main reason I wanted to highlight Frankel is the consistency his runners have displayed across the six UK AW tracks. His win strike rate across them varies only by 3.3% between the ‘best’ and the ‘worst’, while five of the six hit over 18%. The graph below shows the splits:

 

 

For the record, the lower strike rate at Kempton is mainly down to the fact that when Frankel’s progeny have run there the average field size has been bigger than at the other tracks.

Frankel’s offspring have struggled, however, once they hit the age of six. The table below shows the age stats and there has been a serious drop off once they reach that age:

 

 

Focusing in on the age six-plus group, such horses that started in the top three in the betting won just five times from 43 qualifiers (SR 11.6%) for SP losses of 68p in the £ (66p to BSP). I would be very wary of backing Frankel’s runners aged six or older this winter and market confidence would not change my mind.

Before moving on, in terms of distance preference, 1m4f to 1m7f proved the most successful by far on the sand for Frankel progeny. Horses that ran within this distance range, when starting favourite or second favourite, won an impressive 51 times from 113 (SR 45.1%) for an SP profit of £21.60 (ROI +19.1%); to BSP this improves a little to +£29.31 (ROI +25.9%).

Harry Angel

Harry Angel was a top sprinter that won five of his 12 starts comprising two Group 1 successes and three Group 2s. He had his first runners as a sire in 2022 and he has already had eight Group winners across the globe including a Group 1 success in Australia with Tom Kitten.

Let us look at turf flat versus all-weather results for Harry Angel; they make interesting reading:

 

 

We can see much stronger figures on the AW and the A/E indices correlate with 1.13 for the sand versus 0.84 for the turf. It should be stressed that it is still early days in his sire career and the gap between the AW and turf numbers may close. However, any horse that has acted on the turf is highly likely to act on the sand. Indeed, horses that finished first or second LTO on the turf, when switched next time to the all-weather, have won 11 of 26 starts (SR 42.3%) for returns of 19p in the £ to SP, 26p to BSP.

I for one will be looking out for horses sired by Harry Angel this winter.

 

Lethal Force

Lethal Force as a racehorse was a top sprinter winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup in the same year (2013), both Group 1 status. As a sire he has performed solidly with a win rate of around one in nine, and on the turf his progeny definitely prefer a firmer surface. On good to firm or firmer his win rate improves to one win in seven.

In terms of the all-weather, like Aclaim, Lethal Force offspring seem to prefer Polytrack over Tapeta:

 

 

The differences are arguably not as strong as they were for Aclaim, but they seem significant especially considering the big sample size. The PRB figures also favour Polytrack with a 52.6% figure compared to the Tapeta figure of 48.6%. Also, if we focus on runners that started in the top three in the betting, the correlation is positive with the overall splits as follows:

 

 

Clearly, fancied horses do better on the Polytrack when it comes to the progeny of this sire.

Another stat worth sharing is that his male and female runners have performed equally well in terms of their AW strike rate. In fact, the females have shaded it (10.9% v 10.7%), and if we compare their A/E indices we see that the fillies and mares have an excellent figure of 0.99; the males are down on 0.81. Female runners have offered good value.

Lethal Force no longer stands as a sire, so make the most of the next couple of years as there will be fewer opportunities thereafter to take advantage of the Polytrack/female edge.

Wahington DC

Washington DC is another sire early in his career, but the initial stats suggest a bias to all-weather racing. Here are the current splits:

 

 

As I said previously, it is early days in terms of sire data for Washington DC, but all the positive signs are currently pointing towards the AW. The tapeta record to date is particularly good with 19 wins from 107 (SR 17.8%) for an SP profit of £40.51 (ROI +37.9%); to BSP it stands at an enhanced +£84.28 (ROI +78.8%). It should also be noted that male Washington DC runners on the AW are currently winning twice as often as female runners.

 

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Sires In General

To finish this article I'd like to share some general data for a bunch more sires who we should see appearing regularly on the sand this winter. I have published win percentages (Win SR%), each way percentages (win & placed %s) and A/E indices. First let us look at some gender-related stats for each:

 

 

Australia, Night of Thunder and Zoustar all see stronger male stats than female stats across the three metrics. Havana Grey is one of two sires where the trend is with female progeny outperforming males across the board, Too Darn Hot being the other. Havana Grey’s female runners have turned a small blind profit to BSP, and their performance has been particularly good on Polytrack, more especially at Lingfield.

Now let’s compare Polytrack with Tapeta stats:

 

 

Too Darn Hot is the stand-out in terms of Polytrack outperforming Tapeta across all three metrics. Blue Point progeny seem to have an edge on Tapeta. The remaining sires seem roughly as effective on both surfaces.

Finally, a look at the two-year-old and three-year-old data:

 

 

Blue Point’s three-year-olds have stronger stats across the board compared to his juveniles; likewise, Kingman. Invincible Army’s win stats suggest 3yos have completely outshone their younger counterparts but the each way stats imply something nearer parity. Calyx is a young sire, and it looks currently that his 2yos perform exceptionally well. Zoustar has figures that correlate with the fact that his 2yos are better betting propositions than his 3yos.

Sire research is an inexact science, but I hope this piece has given readers some interest and hopefully you will take some useful nuggets away to help your AW betting this winter.

- DR

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• Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases
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• A Look at All-Weather Returners
• Hat Trick (Plus) Seekers in NH Racing
• Statistics for National Hunt Racing in November