Tag Archive for: Godolphin

2025 St Leger Trends

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The St Leger is the oldest of the five British flat racing Classics, as well as the longest in trip at Doncaster racecourse.

Run over a distance of 1m6f and for 3 year-olds only this contest is targeted by horses that ran in that season’s Great Voltigeur, with 9 of the last 22 winners having ran in that York race before winning this, while in recent years with seen 9 winning favourites in the last 22 runnings.

Look out for John Gosden-trained horses as this powerful Newmarket stable has won the race four times in the last 22 years, while top Irish handler – Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the St Leger eight times, including 5 of the last 12 seasons with Leading Light, Capri, Kew Gardens, Continuous and last year with Jan Brueghel.

Also note any Godolphin-owned entries as they these famous blue silks have won the final English Classic of the season a staggering seven times.

Here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats ahead of the 2025 renewal - on Saturday 13th September.

Recent St Leger Winners

2024 - Jan Brueghel (11/4 jfav)
2023 - Continuous (3/1)
2022 – Eldar Eldarov (9/2)
2021 – Hurricane Lane (8/11 fav)
2020 – Galileo Chrome (4/1)
2019 – Logician (5/6 fav)
2018 - Kew Gardens (3/1)
2017 - Capri (3/1 fav)
2016 – Harbour Law (22/1)
2015 – Simple Verse (8/1)
2014 – Kingston Hill (9/4 fav)
2013 – Leading Light (7/2 fav)
2012 – Encke (25/1)
2011 – Masked Marvel (15/2)
2010 – Arctic Cosmos (12/1)
2009 – Mastery (14/1)
2008 – Conduit (8/1)
2007 – Lucarno (7/2)
2006 – Sixties Icon (11/8 fav)
2005 – Scorpion (10/11 fav)
2004 – Rule of Law (3/1 jfav)
2003 – Brian Boru (5/4 fav)
2002 – Bollin Eric (7/1)

Key St Leger Trends

20/23 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
20/23 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
20/23 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
19/23 – Placed favourites
19/23 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/23 – Had won a Group race before
18/23 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
15/23 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
15/23 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
13/23 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
13/23 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
14/23 – Won last time out
14/23 – Officially rated 109 to 115
10/23 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
9/23 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
7/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/23 – Trained by John Gosden
4/23 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (7 wins in total)
4/23 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (3 won it)
3/23 – Ridden by William Buick
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/23 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/23 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 7 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 8 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 6/1

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Ombudsman has Ascot in his sights after bypassing Irish Champion date

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Godolphin are putting their faith in “master trainer” John Gosden to pull off an exciting autumn schedule with Ombudsman after the handler ruled this year’s star performer out of a third clash with Delacroix in the Irish Champion Stakes.

The son of Night Of Thunder, who Gosden trains in partnership with son Thady, reversed an agonising defeat in the Coral-Eclipse to level the score with Aidan O’Brien’s leading colt in tremendous fashion in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York.

That was the Clarehaven inmate’s second big victory of the season after success in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, but he will miss another rematch at Leopardstown after his training team elected to freshen up their star performer ahead of important dates later in the season.

“I spoke to John this (Wednesday) morning and he’s a master trainer and I think the plan he has set out is very much similar to what he had in mind after the win in the Juddmonte International,” Godolphin’s managing director Hugh Anderson told the PA news agency.

“There is no man better able at setting out a challenging campaign for a fabulous racehorse than John and we look forward to hopefully some good results in the autumn.

“He’s been a star this year and Ombudsman and (Kentucky Derby winner) Sovereignty are out of the real top-drawer. Godolphin have had some good horses down the years but to have these two in the same year is really excellent.”

With a trip to Ireland off the table and a tilt at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe already ruled out, a return to the scene of his summer high for Ascot’s Qipco Champion Stakes on October 18 now looks the obvious next port of call.

That could bring tantalising trips abroad for both the Breeders’ Cup and Japan Cup into play, with Anderson full of praise for the Gosdens’ excellent management of Ombudsman’s career to date which has yielded six victories from eight starts and those all important Group One triumphs at 10 furlongs.

Hugh Anderson (right) after Ombudsman's win at York
Hugh Anderson (right) after Ombudsman’s win at York (Mike Egerton/PA)

“I’m not sure if we will be able to get all three of those races in, but those races are certainly what John has in mind,” continued Anderson.

“It’s a classic example of where a trainer will need to watch the weather, watch his horse and work out the best options.

“But what I will say about Ombudsman is the way he has been trained over his career is very much to John and Thady’s credit, with the watchword being patience and that has delivered fantastic results.

“He didn’t race at two and then was very lightly raced at three and he’s hit these huge highs at four. So whatever John thinks is best for him is going to prove to be good for Godolphin.”

Ombudsman shows star quality with sizzling Prince of Wales’s display

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Ombudsman displayed a devastating change of gear to run out a brilliant winner of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Successful on each of his first four starts last season, including a Group Three win in France, John and Thady Gosden’s colt met with defeat for the first time when second to Almaqam on his return to action in last month’s Brigadier Gerard at Sandown.

The Godolphin-owned four-year-old faced a further hike in class for this Group One feature, but after being settled well off the strong early pace by William Buick, he engaged overdrive once in the clear halfway up the straight and readily picked off the gallant Anmaat to win by two lengths going away.

See The Fire was third, another two and a half lengths behind the 7-1 winner, but Aidan O’Brien’s Los Angeles, the 13-8 favourite, faded into fifth place.

Gosden senior, celebrating his 70th Royal Ascot winner, said: “He’s a special horse and it’s just a question of an owner giving you the time to let them mature and get there.

“He’s got a turn of foot and he (Buick) knew it, it was a matter of getting out, but I did notice when he finally got daylight there was a furlong to go.”

He went on: “It’s a question of, when you get to the straight, whether you get the luck. He wasn’t in a position where he could swing round the field, it was more of a case of waiting for the gap.

“He was very patient. I knew when there was a gap at the furlong pole that this horse has an extraordinary turn of foot – he was patient and he was rewarded.

“When we bought him he was an immature horse, he didn’t run as a two-year-old and as a three-year-old we brought him on and then put him away. He’s horse who is now properly grown and developed as a four-year-old.

The Prince of Wales presents a commemorative saddle blanket to trainer John Gosden following his 70th win at Royal Ascot with Ombudsman
The Prince of Wales presents a commemorative saddle blanket to trainer John Gosden following his 70th win at Royal Ascot with Ombudsman (David Davies/PA)

“He’s a mile-and-a-quarter horse, he’s got a wonderful turn of foot as you saw and I think we’ll play to that strength. As far as I’m concerned he’s done nothing but grow in stature.

“He is a horse that because he hasn’t over-raced this year, he could be a horse you could look at the Eclipse.

“That wouldn’t be my choice (to run him against Field Of Gold).”

Thady Gosden added: “When William found a gap he asked him to go through it and he was very quick.

“The Eclipse looks like the natural step to take. It was a top-class field today, it was the most elite field of the week as it often is and he showed what he was capable of there.

“It wasn’t a huge field but it was highly elite, as you’d expect at this meeting. He certainly came up good.”

William Buick was all smiles after winning on Ombudsman
William Buick was all smiles after winning on Ombudsman (John Walton/PA)

Buick was noticeably jubilant on passing the line, after an opening day that had seen high-profile reverses for Notable Speech and Ruling Court.

He said: “This place tames lions. It’s so special to win here because it’s so tough, everyone comes here in great form and everyone is doing their very best of course.

“They went a hard gallop. I was always going to have to ride for a bit of luck and he quickened instantly. I thought he was impressive.

“I think that was a taste of what’s to come for sure. He’s got low miles on the clock, he’s an exciting horse.”

Sovereignty makes it a Classic double in Belmont Stakes

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Kentucky Derby hero Sovereignty got the better of his old rival Journalism when running out a brilliant winner of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.

The Bill Mott-trained Sovereignty provided the Godolphin operation with a first taste of Kentucky Derby glory at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, beating Michael McCarthy’s hot favourite Journalism into second place.

With connections of Sovereignty resisting the temptation to shoot for Triple Crown immortality and running in Preakness Stakes a fortnight later, Journalism took full advantage with a narrow success at Pimlico, setting up a tantalising rematch at Saratoga.

Journalism was the first of the big two to commit for home, quickening to the lead off the final bend under Umberto Rispoli, but Sovereignty and Junior Alvarado joined him entering the final furlong before pulling three lengths clear to confirm his status as America’s star three-year-old colt.

Speaking on the Godolphin website, Mott said: “We had a repeat of the Derby – the first three finishers in the Derby finished one-two-three here – and the form is holding up. They are three really good horses and I’m glad that Sovereignty was able to come back and put in a race like he did in the Derby.

“If we hadn’t won today, we would have taken a lot of criticism for missing the Preakness, but it turned out good. Sometimes, you make the right decision and a lot of times you make the wrong ones. Today, it really worked out well.”

Michael Banahan, director of bloodstock for Godolphin USA, said: “It’s the most fantastic feeling in the world. Sovereignty was trained to the minute by Bill and his team to come here off a five-week rest.

“We knew that he was a good horse going into the Kentucky Derby and he showed it that day. To come back here and show it again, and beat a really, really good horse in Journalism, it was a fantastic result for us.

“It’s fantastic to win two legs of the Triple Crown. We are very, very happy with doing it – coming here after the Derby was the plan and it teed up a really good race, with the Derby winner and the Preakness winner having a showdown in the Belmont.”

Considering plans for the rest of the year, Banahan added: “There are races down the road that we would really like to win – the Travers is very special. We’ve won it before, but I don’t think Bill has, so it would be great for him to do that.

“It would be great, if the horse is healthy and well, to try to get to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It’s a race that we have run in several times without having the opportunity to win yet.”

The Jamie Osborne-trained Heart Of Honor represented British hopes but he could finish only sixth under Saffie Osborne.

Monday Musings: A Classic Weekend for Godolphin

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All those years ago when Sheikh Mohammed came across to the UK for the first time intent on buying a few racehorses, I doubt it would have entered his mind how his involvement in the worldwide racing industry would develop, writes Tony Stafford. More so, that in 2025, with himself nowadays a rare visitor to this country, he could ever have a UK/US quadruple big-race triumph over one weekend as he just did.

On Friday, he won the Kentucky Oaks, for three-year-old fillies at Churchill Downs; on Saturday the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Kentucky Derby at Churchill; and yesterday the 1,000 Guineas back at HQ.

Equally, I doubt whether it even occurred to him that almost half a century on, he would have progressed from the number three of four horse-racing mad sons of the Dubai Ruler Sheikh Rashid. But first, his eldest brother Sheikh Maktoum died, and he had already supplanted next-in-line (by mutual agreement we believe) the more recently deceased Sheikh Hamdan, to become the Emirate’s undisputed boss.

The racing set-up he initially organised had as its principal advisors Robert Acton, John Ferguson and Simon Crisford. The horses were in top UK stables, such as (Sir) Henry Cecil, who trained Oh So Sharp to the filly equivalent of the Triple Crown (1,000 Guineas, Oaks and St Leger) in 1985, a full 40 years ago. The last colt’s Triple Crown came from Vincent O’Brien’s Nijinsky eight years earlier.

It was around the time of Oh So Sharp when I experienced my close and personal moment in a car driven by the late Richard Casey, a superb jumps trainer but at the time the man who used to prepare the (Sir) Michael Stoute horses before they went into training.

John Leat was then the Sheikh’s inseparable (in the UK) personal assistant. He and I were with the other three gentlemen while we two conducted an impromptu interview in Richard’s car at Dullingham near Newmarket. The one phrase I remember from the conversation was, “People expect to build a breeding operation in five to ten years. I’m not sure you could do it in less than 30!”

For years, the development was patchy, for all the good horses they raced, often bought by Acton and Stroud, later by Ferguson. Acton and Stroud moved aside in a significant shake-up as, much later, did Ferguson, while Crisford turned to training with great success, now in concert with son Ed.

Now though, Stroud and another of the Sheikh’s former trainers, David Loder, is back at the helm of buying at auction while Simon Crisford is never too far away from the deliberations, so much so that he maintains a big satellite winter team in Dubai along with his powerful Newmarket yard.

Of course, the advent of Godolphin at around the turn of the century with local Dubaian Saeed bin Suroor taking centre stage coincided with a big explosion of success. Even when the very popular Saeed was seemingly demoted to a secondary role with the emergence of Mahmood al Zarooni, he kept smiling and continued to be the polite, readily accessible man he remains today.

I was pleased that in yesterday’s 1,000 Guineas, when interviewed beforehand, bin Suroor reckoned his filly Elwateen, a once raced 22/1 shot running for the first time on grass, would go well. She finished fourth and, considering her inexperience, the future looks bright.

The al Zarooni years ended abruptly with the finding of non-permitted substances in several of his horses. His Encke, which won the St Leger in 2012 and thereby denied the Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot the Triple Crown after that one had already taken the 2,000 Guineas and Derby, was one of them, but his test ironically was clear when his St Leger sample was later analysed.

Al Zarooni’s banishment was the opening that led to Charlie Appleby’s promotion, and how he has taken it with both hands. Ruling Court’s win from the tactically outsmarted runner-up and short-price Gosden-trained favourite Field Of Gold and Kieran Shoemark was followed yesterday with another HQ masterclass by Buick on Desert Flower in the 1,000 Guineas.

In her case, it didn’t take a seven-figure auction bid to secure the daughter of 2,000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder. She was a homebred and while there was no fluke about the result, the runner-up Flight almost ‘did a Night Of Thunder’, drifting from one side to the other, although contrastingly to Desert Flower’s sire, out to the right to join the main pack rather than the other way round.

I thought for a while she looked to have the race won, so easily did she go past the pacemaker on her wing, but she seemed to get lonely, hence the drift to seek the company of her companions.

Flight is trained by the emerging Ollie Sangster whose other runner, Simmering, stayed on to be third. It looked a very strong field beforehand and there is no reason to believe these fillies will not prove that to be the case time after time as the season progresses.

As I mentioned above, 40 years on from that meeting at Dullingham, a scan through the Charlie Appleby team of 225 reveals that having been sustained for so long in the unequal fight with Coolmore over the past two Galileo-blessed decades, by their champion Dubawi, newer stallions are moving in to help level up the playing field.

Well to the fore in Charlie’s list are former Horse Of The Year Gaiyyath, the top juvenile Pinatubo, Blue Point, and freshman sire Space Blues.

And yet, despite those new ‘home team’ blood lines, Saturday’s convincing winner of the 2,000 Guineas, Ruling Court, was a son of Justify, who stands at Coolmore’s US arm, Ashford stud in Kentucky. He twice eluded the attentions of the Coolmore team at auctions. Sold originally to the ultra-shrewd former jump jockey Norman Williamson for $150k at Keeneland in September 2023, he so impressed the attendees at the Arqana May breeze-up sale the following May that he changed hands for €2,300,000. Nice one Norman!

Scanning through the team, Ruling Court was the sole three-year-old Justify although three more colts by City Of Troy’s sire are among 110 juveniles. Wootton Bassett (300k a pop at Coolmore this year) also illustrates the more pragmatic approach by the present Godolphin management, with six. The first of them to run, Rising Power (€600k at Goffs Orby Book 1 last autumn) made a winning start yesterday at Newmarket, the final leg of an Appleby/Buick treble.

Friday’s Kentucky Oaks heroine, Good Cheer, mirrors Desert Flower as she is also unbeaten, in her case seven from seven, the latest three this year. She was also favourite (7/5) and came wide on the home bend to run past a quartet battling on the lead with extreme ease. Brad Cox has been very patient with her, moving her gradually up the grades. She has been favourite every time, and Friday’s winning margin of two and a quarter lengths was the narrowest, if you can say that about an overwhelming superiority. She too is a homebred, by Medaglia d’Oro.

It was closer in the Kentucky Derby. Sovereignty, a son of 22-year-old stallion Into Mischief, trained by veteran Bill Mott, won by one and a half lengths with a big stretch run to deny the favourite Journalism on a soupy track after heavy rain fell all day. The Coolmore team has made several shrewd in training deals in the US in recent years into careers like Justify’s. Journalism has also been the subject of an arrangement with his present owners to stand him at stud at Ashford when he retires. He has something to put right then over the rest of the season, while nearer to home evidence suggests the Coolmore runners from Ballydoyle seem to be a couple of weeks short of peak.

One that stayed in Ireland this weekend was The Lion In Winter, winner of last year’s seven-furlong Acomb Stakes at York when even-money shot Ruling Court suffered his only defeat in third. He is expected to turn out for the Dante Stakes. His owners will be hoping that the team quickly moves into top speed. Interestingly, The Lion In Winter is the 7/2 favourite for the Betfred Derby with Ruling Court next best at 4/1. More exciting times ahead.

- TS

A Study of Owners in UK Flat Racing, Part 1

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As the title indicates, this article looks at some owner data for UK Flat and AW racing, writes Dave Renham. The period of study is from 1st January 2019 to 8th September 2024. Profit and loss has been calculated to Industry Starting Price, but I will quote Betfair SP when appropriate. This is the first of a two-part series.

Flat Owners' Strike Rate League Table

Let's kick off by looking at the top 25 owners in terms of their strike rate (150 runs minimum to qualify):

 

 

Godolphin top the chart perhaps as one would expect, but hot on their heels is Marc Chan. The top six in the list all have decent A/E indices with four of that six hitting 1.00 or above. I will look at some of the owners in more detail later in the piece.

One owner to not quite make the cut is King Charles and Queen Camilla. Since taking over from the Queen at the end of 2022 the Royals have slimmed the operation down a little. They have had 21 winners from 164 runners (SR 13.8%), but losses have been steep, at £70.42 (ROI -42.9%). The A/E index stands on just 0.71. There has been performance drop off since the death of Her Majesty. From 2019 to 2022 Queen Elizabeth II had 270 runners of which 56 won (SR 20.1%) for a loss of £42.37 (ROI -15.2%); A/E index 0.92. It will be interesting to see if there is an improvement in performance with Royal runners over the next couple of seasons.

 

Godolphin

Godolphin had their first winner in December 1992 in Dubai and from 1994 the operation went global. At the time of researching this piece Sheikh Mohamed's racing entity winner-count worldwide stood at 8787, of which 430 came in Group 1 races.

Godolphin UK Annual Strike Rates

In this country they are based in Newmarket and have two trainers, Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Below are their overall yearly win strike rates.

 

 

There seems to have been a slight uptick in performance in the past three seasons (2022 to 2024). This has been reflected in the profit/loss column with 2019 to 2021 seeing losses of £368.61 (ROI -18.0%), while from 2022 to 2024 these have been much reduced to just -£38.48 (ROI -2.4%).

Godolphin Top Jockeys

Onto jockeys now and a look at all jockeys have had at least 60 rides for Godolphin and have ridden for them in 2024. I have ordered them by number of rides:

 

 

William Buick is the main stable jockey now James Doyle has moved on to Wathnan Racing. Doyle has still ridden for Godolphin this year but only 13 times and with just one win. Buick has an excellent record considering how many rides he has had. Betting all his rides would have yielded just a penny in the pound loss, while to BSP this moves into profit by £73.00 (ROI +6.8%). Oisin Murphy has an excellent record and primarily has ridden for bin Suroor. He’s only been called upon seven times so far in 2024 but has three wins from those rides. Going back to 2019 Murphy has an excellent record when riding in novice events. He has managed 18 wins from 41 rides (SR 43.9%) for a profit of £19.85 (ROI +48.4%). To BSP this improves to +£27.73 (ROI +67.6%).

Godolphin at Grade 1 Tracks

The next area to share is the stats at Grade 1 courses. This is where the biggest races tend to occur and a big operation like Godolphin do target quality.

 

 

The performances at Newmarket stand out. As you can see, I have split them into the Rowley and July courses, partly to show the consistency shown at Godolphin's local track. The two highest strike rates come from the Rowley and July course stats, both have shown profits to SP, and both A/E indices are comfortably above 1.00.

Now, the Godolphin stables are based in Newmarket, so the horses do not have to travel and are used to the surroundings. Even so, these stats are impressive especially given the quality of opposition they face at Headquarters. If you had backed all of their runners at Newmarket to BSP, profits would stand at an impressive +£172.44 (ROI +22.2%). If we look at the yearly BSP returns (ROI%) we see the following:

 

 

Profits in every single year showing excellent consistency. The last three years have been particularly strong.

William Buick has an outstanding record for Godolphin at the Suffolk track thanks to 133 winners from 368 (SR 36.1%) for a profit of £84.61 (ROI +23%). To BSP this climbs to +£121.46 (ROI +33%). Oisin Murphy is 10 from 22 and his mounts have returned a huge return to SP of 159 pence in the £. That has been achieved with the biggest priced winner being 9/1.

All in all, the Godolphin operation keeps firing year on year, and there are no signs of this abating.

 

Shadwell Estate Co (formerly Hamdan al Maktoum)

The Shadwell Estate is a world-renowned racing and breeding operation located in Britain, Ireland and the USA. Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum became one of the leading figures in international horseracing from the 1980s until his passing in 2021. He was champion Flat owner in Britain nine times, the last of which was in 2020. The operation is now run by his daughter, Sheikha Hissa. It is noticeable that the operation seems to have been streamlined since the death of Sheikh Hamdan with the number of runners per year roughly halving. This seems mainly due to the number of 2yo runners which have decreased dramatically.

In 2022 Shadwell had their best season in the 2019-2024 period hitting over 32% winners and returns to SP of 25p in the £. This year to date has been a little ‘sticky’ relatively with a strike rate of half that on 16.8% and losses edging close to 40p in the £. I am assuming 2024 has just been a small blip, based on going back further in time when they had similar strike rates in 2012, 2013 and 2016.

 

Shadwell Estate Trainer Performance

Below is a table showing trainers who have saddked at least 100 runners for Shadwell and at least one runner in 2024:

 

 

The Gosden, Varian and Burrows yards have all provided excellent long-term results, blind profits to SP and A/E indices above 1.00. This year two trainers in particular have struggled, with Charles Hills on just one win from 19 and Richard Hannon having drawn a blank from all of his 14 runners.

A trainer they may start to use more is Kevin Phillipart de Foy. He has had only four horses to date but three of them have won and overall, he has five wins from 12 from those horses.

In terms of jockeys, Jim Crowley gets the lion’s share of the rides and from 2019 to 2023 he made a blind profit to BSP in every single year, and to SP in four of the five years. This has not been the case this year which is no surprise given the 2024 figures shown above.

From a racecourse perspective, there are 11 courses where Shadwell has sent at least 100 runners since 2019. These favoured tracks have combined to produce a BSP profit of £199.67 (ROI 12.7%). I have graphed their A/E indices below:

 

 

Doncaster and Lingfield have extremely strong A/E indices of 1.29 and 1.26 respectively when Shadwell runners visit. At both courses they have provided good profits to both Industry SP and BSP and the strike rate at Lingfield has been better than one win in every three (34.3%). Kempton is another track where their runners have performed extremely well.

Shadwell Market Performance

Looking at the betting market, Shadwell runners have turned a profit on both favourites and second favourites:

 

 

To BSP profits stand at £45.85 (ROI +6.7%) for favs, and +£65.42 (ROI +14.4%) for second favs.

It will be interesting to see how Shadwell move forward in the next two or three years.

Cheveley Park Stud

The Cheveley Park Stud is Newmarket’s oldest stud farm and has been one of the major forces in European bloodstock and racing for over 35 years. With a strike rate of around one in six they have not been as successful as the likes of Godolphin, but there are still a few positive angles to share, as well as some negative ones.

Below is their annual breakdown:

 

 

As can be seen, it has been a little up and down. This year to date has been good, as was 2021. Last year saw quite a dip so it is difficult to get a handle on how things may go each year.

Cheveley Park Stud by Race Class

Onto to Class of Race next and here are the splits:

 

 

The headline here are those 38 wins at Class 1, with a profit to boot. To BSP this profit stands at £75.71 (ROI +29.3%) and sticking with BSP Class 1 races have yielded a profit in four of the six years. If we breakdown the Class 1 races we see that Listed races have offered the best returns:

 

 

All 17 wins from the Listed races have come with female runners. Females have provided 86 of the runners; the 11 male runners have drawn a blank. It should be noted at this point that around 75% of ALL the horses from Cheveley Park have been female with the vast majority of these being fillies, most of the colts from the stud being sent to auction.

Cheveley Park Performance by Surface

With most of Cheveley Park's runners being fillies, I suspect that the turf versus all-weather stats are worth looking at. Generally, female runners find it harder on the all-weather than on grass, so I am predicting that the red, white and blue-silked runners have a slightly better record on turf. Let’s see:

 

 

No surprises here. The turf figures are far superior to the all-weather ones across the board.

Cheveley Park Performance by Trainer

A look at trainers next. Firstly, a comparison of strike rates across the main trainers (60 runs minimum):

 

 

Quite a variance here, ranging from William Haggas at over 22% to Roger Varian at under 10%. Let’s see which trainers have produced the best A/E indices over the period of study:

 

 

David O’Meara is the standout with an A/E index of 1.11. He had a decent strike rate of close to 19% and has been profitable with Cheveley Park runners to both SP (12p in the £) and BSP (24p in the £). Also take notice if Danny Tudhope is booked to ride for O’Meara and Cheveley Park. They have combined to secure a 54% profit to SP, 71% to BSP.

The Gosden stats look a bit weird as they have been profitable to SP (18p in £) and BSP (26p in the £), but their A/E index is down at 0.84. However, this is because of a below average performance with shorter-priced runners. For the record the stable has made an SP profit in five of the six years.

Cheveley Park Market Performance

Finally for Cheveley Park, let me share some market data because it caught my eye. When the SP has been short (9/4 or shorter) the results have been quite poor. The ownership entity has managed 100 wins from 294 qualifiers (SR 34%), but losses have been significant at £69.53 (ROI –23.7%).

But when their runners have drifted in price from Early Odds (around 9am in the morning) to their final SP they have made a profit if backing to BSP. There have been 749 horses which have lengthened in price from Early Odds to SP of which 108 have won (SR 14.4%) for a BSP profit to £81.08 (ROI +10.8%). So don’t be put off by a Cheveley Park drifter. Drifters at single figure BSP prices have made a profit so these figures are not skewed by several big priced winners.

*

That concludes my first piece. I hope there have been some useful nuggets for you to take advantage of in the future. I will continue from where I left off next time. Until then...

- DR

2024 Dubai World Cup Trends

/in /by

It's now over 20 years ago since horse-loving and mega-rich HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum had the dream to build a new and exciting race tracks in the heart of Dubai and attract the world’s best thoroughbreds to race for the Dubai World Cup.

Millions of dollars of prize money provided the carrot for trainers around the globe and with the prize now upped to a whopping $10million, from $6 million, for the main race this year’s event is set to be the best yet. 2010 saw the start of a new era with the entire carnival being run for the first time at the newly built Meydan Racecourse, having previously been staged at Nad Al Sheba.

The new futuristic track has cost an estimated $2billion to build and will easily accommodate a bumper 60,000 crowd. 10,000 car park spaces make things easier for visitors, while the track has been built on 76m Sq feet and includes a 12f turf track and an 8.75 Tapeta (AW) course.

This year’s race will be run on Saturday 30th March, the final day of the Dubai Racing Carnival that runs from January and consists of around 10 meetings.

Last year we saw the second winner from Japan as the Noboru Takagi-trained Ushba Tesoro landed the lucrative pot. The first 6 year-old winner of the race since Well Armed in 2009 and only the fourth of that age group to take the prize.

Dubai World Cup Trends (Since run at Meydan 2010)

13/13 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
12/13 – Previous Group/Grade 1 or 2 winners
11/13 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
9/13 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
9/13 – Officially rated between 119-123
8/13 – Didn’t win their last race
8/13 – Aged 5 or older
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
7/13– Had won at the track before
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price
6/13 – Came from stalls 5-8 (inclusive)
5/13 - Owned by Godolphin (9 wins in total)
4/13 - Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (9 wins in total)
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 - Ridden by Christophe Soumillon
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6+
The last 7 winners were aged between 4-6
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the race 4 times
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the Dubai World Cup 4 times

Trained Dubai World Cup Winners………..

13/27 – Trained in USA
11/27 – Trained in GB
2/27 – Trained in Japan
1/27 – Trained in France
0/27 - Trained in Ireland

Previous Dubai World Cup Winners

2023 - Ushba Tesoro (JPN) (6): Yuga Kawada / Noboru Takagi - 10/1
2022 - Country Grammer (USA) (5): Frankie Dettori / Bob Baffert - 15/2
2021 - Mystic Guide (USA) (4): Luis Saez / Mike Stidham - 6/4 (fav)
2020 - No race (Covid)
2019 – Thunder Snow (UAE) (5): Christophe Soumillon / Saeed Bin Suroor – 4/1
2018 – Thunder Snow (UAE) (4): Christophe Soumillon / Saeed Bin Suroor – 8/1
2017 - Arrogate (USA) (4) : Mike E Smith / Bob Baffert - 1/3 (fav)
2016 – California Chrome (USA) (5) : Victor Espinoza / Art Sherman – 15/8 (jfav)
2015 – Prince Bishop (UAE) (8) : William Buick / Saeed Bin Suroor – 14/1
2014 – African Story (UAE) (7) : Silvestre de Sousa / Saeed Bin Suroor – 12/1
2013 – Animal Kingdom (USA) (5) : Joel Rosario/ Graham Motion – 11/2
2012 – Monterosso (UAE) (5): Mickael Barzalona/M Al Zarooni – 20/1
2011 - Victoire Pisa (JPN (4): Mirco Demuro/Katsuhiko Sumii – 12/1
2010 - Gloria de Campeao (FRA) (6): T. J. Pereira/Pascal Bary – 16/1
2009 - Well Armed (USA) (6): Aaron Gryder/Eoin G. Harty – 10/1
2008 – Curlin (USA) (4): Robby Albarado/Steve Asmussen – 4/11 (fav)
2007 – Invasor (USA) (5): Fernando Jara/K McLaughlin – 5/4 (fav)
2006 – Electrocutionist (UAE) (5): Frankie Dettori/Saeed bin Suroor – 5/4 (fav)
2005 - Roses in May (USA) (5): John Velazquez/Dale Romans – 11/8 (fav)
2004 - Pleasantly Perfect (USA) (6): Alex Solis/Richard Mandella – 5/2
2003 - Moon Ballad (UAE) (4): Frankie Dettori/Saeed bin Suroor – 11/4
2002 - Street Cry (UAE) (4): Jerry Bailey/Saeed bin Suroor – 9/2
2001 - Captain Steve (USA) (4): Jerry Bailey/Bob Baffert – 7/4 (jfav)
2000 - Dubai Millennium (UAE) (4): Frankie Dettori/Saeed bin Suroor -
1999 – Almutawakel (UAE) (4): Richard Hills/Saeed bin Suroor -
1998 - Silver Charm (USA) (4): Gary Stevens/Bob Baffert -
1997 – Singspiel (GB) (5): Jerry Bailey/Michael Stoute -
1996 – Cigar (USA) (6): Jerry Bailey/Bill Mott -

 

Monday Musings: Darkest Before the Dawn

/in /by

As a recent Racing Post article by their feature writer Julian Muscat outlined, Charlie Appleby, Godolphin and, usually, William Buick have been utterly dominant throughout the first two months of the Dubai Carnival at Meydan, seemingly knocking off the Group races at will, writes Tony Stafford. It was becoming almost as boring, and routine, he said, as had Willie Mullins at the Dublin Racing Festival and no doubt will be next week at Cheltenham. (I wasn’t the only one, it seems!)

Thank goodness, then, for one of the much-diminished squad of UK trainers who was happy to take them on. Step forward William Knight. It was at last year’s Carnival that his then seven-year-old Sir Busker suffered a freak incident that at the time looked to have ended his career as the Knight stable standard-bearer.

“You wouldn’t mind so much if it had happened in a dirt race”,  he recalled during a barren summer, looking back at his shock when the fragment from the kicked-back piece of turf that landed square in Sir Busker’s eye and necessitated surgery and a long spell of rehab in Dubai after his race on last year’s World Cup night.

Happily, the gelding eventually returned to the UK, running a few times, adding a couple of places in autumn handicaps at Newcastle to career earnings of more than half a million for owners Kennet Valley Thoroughbreds and six wins, including at Royal Ascot.

Ironically, you might say, both Nick Robinson, whose founding of Kennet Valley Thoroughbreds was the impetus for syndicate ownership in the UK, and Neville Callaghan, long-term incumbent of Rathmoy Stables, now Knight’s beautiful base in Newmarket’s Hamilton Road, died in the last few months of 2023.

The year had started promisingly for him, with three wins by the first week of February. Amazingly, though, over the next seven months just two more successes came, for Paradise Row at Chelmsford during Royal Ascot week and Bunker Bay in a four-horse handicap at Yarmouth in July.

I remember him telling me: “We aren’t doing anything different, and the horses seem to be well, but they just aren’t winning.”

You can imagine his frustration and indeed fears for the future. The sales were coming up and all he could point to were five wins in the calendar year. Then somehow it changed. Some younger horses came along to live up to their promise, and crucially he managed to restock a fair amount at the yearling auctions. Last week came news of three new horses coming from an exciting high-value operation managed by his bloodstock agent brother, Richard.

Anyway, by the end of the year he had pushed the tally to 16, below what had become his norm but reassuring all the same after the travails of midsummer. One of the wins came from a two-year-old filly by the US sire Frosted out of a War Front mare that had been bred in the States by Rabbah Bloodstock, part of the sprawling worldwide Sheikh Mohammed enterprise. Godolphin Lite you might say.

Called Frost At Dawn she came to Rathmoy in the ownership of one of the regular Rabbah patrons, Abdulla Al Mansoori, who previously had the odd horse with Knight. William had suffered numbers-wise last year after Rabbah’s restructuring led to its biggest entity in the yard cutting back appreciably.

Frost At Dawn made her debut in late October, amid the Knight revival, taking the well-trod 490-mile round trip from Newmarket to Newcastle – laughingly described by the trainer as “my local track”, so often has he used it to educate and win with inexperienced horses from his yard.

She ran well, finishing a promising second, yet was allowed to start at 10/1 when easily winning three weeks later at nearby Chelmsford. The decision was then made to target some of the valuable fillies’ prizes for juveniles either side of the New Year.

Having started off with a second place at seven furlongs in late December, Knight understandably pushed her up a furlong for her next race early in January and she clearly didn’t stay. I think the Racing Post comment “pressed pace, upsides two furlongs out, folded tamely” was a little harsh, and it was back a furlong again next time when once more she led through the race but didn’t get home.

That brought the realisation that she was probably a sprinter. Her fourth race in Dubai was her career first over as short as six furlongs last month. Starting 40/1, again she took up the running, and this time was beaten on the line by the Godolphin favourite.

The common denominator in all of this was her speed, and now William took the plunge, entering her for the Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint sponsored by Emirates Skywards. Having been confined to racing against her own age and sex, this was a different matter altogether. It’s an all-aged race open to both sexes and it drew a 15-runner field, only three of which – William’s filly, the Godolphin hotpot Star Of Mystery, and a colt that started 100/1 and finished 14th, were the sole three-year-olds in the line-up.

I spoke to William before the race and he pointed out that while there was a massive disparity in their official ratings and prices, the form line through a Ralph Beckett filly called Starlust with the favourite suggested Frost At Dawn had only one length to find.

Star Of Mystery, of course, was an Appleby / Buick / Godolphin 4/9 shot against Frost At Dawn’s 33/1 – “unbelievable each-way value”, said William in his comments for the From The Stables service I edit every day. This opinion was markedly at variance with the official handicap figures as she had 21lb to find, and of course the market. She emphatically proved both wrong.

Down now to five furlongs for the first time, Frost At Dawn took up the running two furlongs out and then sprinted away under Mickael Barzalona to win by two and a half lengths in track record for the Meydan five furlongs. Admittedly, times were fast on Saturday, but when you consider the legions of smart Godolphin and other sprinters that must have graced that turf course in the 15 seasons since the track superseded Nad Al Sheba, it’s impossible not to be impressed by the time and performance.

 

 

Also impressive is the way William Knight soldiered on through the tough times and has come out smiling – well maybe just a hint of one. As to where the UK handicappers will rate Frost At Dawn after this brilliant performance is another question. He could well have to keep her to Group and other stakes races from now on.

Those older sprinters behind her included two well-tested horses from Ireland and the UK, apart from the favourite who has a 113 rating and won a couple of times for Charlie Appleby in a busy two-year-old season last year as well as her Dubaian exploits. Additionally, Johnny Murtagh’s five-year-old mare Ladies Church, a four-time winner, who was 8th, 9.75 lengths behind is rated 104, 4lb less than Charlie Hills’ Equality, who at six boasts five wins, and trailed in a near-eleven lengths 12th. Only the last horse home went into the race with a lower rating than the winner and most of those in between were well into the 100’s.

There are few more personable people in racing than William Knight. I’ve known him for a good while now and I couldn’t be more pleased with that astonishing result. Let’s hope a certain two-year-old son of Kodiac, sire of Star Of Mystery, lives up to early promise. Meanwhile he will be anticipating the prospect of the potential for horses being sent to him from the breeze-ups which will be on us all too soon.

*

Now I must come to the shock and indeed embarrassment I felt with the news on Saturday that Mark Bradstock, the subject of last week’s article, had died. The story revolved around the amazing performance at Exeter of his horse Mr Vango, a 60-length winner a week last Friday and my belief he would stand a chance in the 3m6f National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham next week.

Bradstock, 66, whose widow Sara is the daughter of my long-term former Daily Telegraph colleague John, Lord Oaksey, had shown he could win big races, notably the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Hennessy Gold Cup with half-brothers Coneygree and Carruthers respectively.

I had no idea that he had been so ill, apparently for two years. Mark was highly thought of by his training peers and the one consolation, if there can be any in such awful circumstances, is that he must have been delighted to see one last impressive win from his family-run stable. I send my condolences to Sara and their two children Alfie and Lily.

  • TS

Monday Musings: Newmarket Rejuvenation

/in /by

I had intended writing copiously 24 hours after my first wholly enjoyable, nay rejuvenating, visit to Newmarket racecourse for two years about a brief conversation of which I was the sole observer, writes Tony Stafford. The conversants were those two genial giants of our sport, Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien, but I will leave that until later.

It was in the evening during a catch-up scan through the Saturday results that I noted the 7.30 p.m. race at Chelmsford was called the Tote.co.uk Now Never Beaten By SP Handicap (Division 1).

I’ve noticed that race title before, marvelling that the object of so much ridicule and indeed suspicion in its Betfred-owned days between 2011 and 2019 had been apparently transformed upon its acquisition and operation by the group formerly known as Alizeti Capital but now UK Tote Group.

Their intention, I remembered reading, was exactly that - to ensure the Tote returns were never to be bettered by SP and to help grow its new version to be of financial benefit to the sport.

In its rubric, Tote Group UK says it is “now owned by a group of racehorse owners and breeders who are passionate about the sport, backed by people who own and train over 1,000 horses worldwide.

“We’re united by a shared desire to secure British racing’s finances for generations to come through a revitalised Tote”. Glowing contributions in that notice in support of UK Tote Group have come from Sir Anthony McCoy, John Gosden, Richard Thompson of Cheveley Park Stud, and the Racehorse Owners Association.

I scrutinised all 36 races run in the UK on Saturday and in 24 of them, including the 7.30 at Chelmsford, SP was better than the returned Tote price about the winner. Course and betting shop punters would not have benefited, but I am reassured that online Tote odds backers will have been, according to the publicity (admittedly confusing) blurb to the tune of a maximum £500 per bet. [The race title referred to tote.co.uk, the online arm of the tote]

The three regular backers I know whom I thought might have been able to confirm this as correct all were unable to do so as they all three to coin a theme “had my account with the Tote closed years ago.” They all habitually try to get a few hundred quid on a horse. One big firm, asked for £500 each way on a horse the other day, offered to take £2.80 each way. Still theirs is a happy slogan and I wish anything that might correct the joke level of prize money in the lower reaches of the sport, a potential blessing. But as my three friends I’m sure would say: “Don’t hold your breath.”

I mentioned Charlie and Aidan’s very amicable chat earlier at Newmarket soon after the Darley Dewhurst Stakes victory of unbeaten Native Trail and the Irishman was glowing in his congratulations to his younger English counterpart.

Three wins on the day had already pushed Appleby past Andrew Balding at the top of the trainers’ championship standings for the first time and Aidan admired both Native Trail and the less exposed Coroebus, easy winner of the Group 2 Autumn Stakes.

Where Native Trail was a breeze-up buy for 210,000gns in the spring, able to make his debut in early July and now was making it a perfect four-for-four, there is no Godolphin blood in him, being by Oasis Dream out of an Observatory mare – Juddmonte all the way.

Coroebus meanwhile is Godolphin through and through: by Dubawi, their version of Coolmore’s great stallion Galileo, out of a mare by Galileo’s first superstar, the unbeaten Teofilo.

O’Brien remarked on both colts’ physicality, to which Appleby replied: “Coroebus is 540 kilos and Native Trail is 545, and that’s as heavy as Adayar who you know is a monster!”  Formidable for two-year-olds you would agree!

The wins brought Appleby some elbow room at the top of the table and with a dearth of major and valuable races to come save next Saturday’s Qatar Champions Day at Ascot and the Vertem Futurity (just over £100k)  at Doncaster the following weekend, opportunities are somewhat polarised.

Aidan told me he plans to run his top juvenile Luxembourg in the Vertem Futurity and expects that outstanding Camolot colt to go first in 2022 for the 2000 Guineas where he will almost certainly encounter Native Trail and Coroebus.

While Appleby has been inching his way up to and past Balding, who has had a season that must have surprised him with more than £4 million already in the satchel, he will be aware that John and Thady Gosden, who started slowly this year, are still in there pitching.

Balding has ten entries for Ascot, but only a couple, both 8-1 shots – Invite in the Fillies and Mares race, and Alcohol Free in the QE II – have better than outside chances. Appleby’s hopes from six entries centre, should he run, on Derby winner Adayar, about whom 3-1 is probably a little tight after his Arc exertions.

But the Gosden ten, with six in the closing Balmoral Handicap - Gosden senior dearly wants to win that race – include four serious darts at the biggest prizes of the day.

Mishriff, saved from the Arc in favour of the Champion Stakes, is 6-4 favourite for the £680k Champion. Palace Pier vies for favouritism with improving Baeed in the £623,000 to the winner QE II. Additionally, Free Wind is 7-2 for the £283,000 Fillies and Mares, and Stradivarius, should he renew hostilities with Trueshan, is second favourite behind that horse in the similarly-endowed Stayers’ race.

The Gosdens lurk around £500,000 behind Appleby and, unless such as Snowfall and maybe something else can edge out Mishriff, or The Revenant, back with a near miss at Longchamp, could possibly again unseat Palace Pier with Baeed’s help. Otherwise it seems a dominant position for a hat-trick for Clarehaven. It looks theirs to lose.

While that stealthy challenge in the trainers’ race has suddenly crystallised, the jockeys’ battle between incumbent Oisin Murphy and his nearest challenger William Buick has been a constant side-show most of this year.

It’s easy to portray this tussle as between Mr Naughty and Mr Squeaky Clean and certainly Oisin Murphy’s second failed breath test, which for the moment merely cost him one day’s riding at Newmarket on Friday, has done nothing for his reputation.

The jockey stressed that the alcohol reading while exceeding the permitted limit for being allowed to ride a racehorse was below that excluding him from driving a car. Great! Only slightly pissed then!

He dominated talk at Newmarket on Saturday, most people saying that for a repeat offence the case should get a proper investigation and the inside story at Newmarket on Saturday was that an inquiry will be held at the BHA today.

A one-day slap on the wrist, if that is all that happens for the offence, seems inappropriate to me. Suppose he hadn’t been tested, thus was free to ride on Friday and had caused danger to other jockeys and their horses. That puts the six-month ban (now ended) for promising apprentice Benoit de la Sayette when he was found in breach of the drug rules back in the spring in some context.

In the end, of course, Murphy was free to ride Buzz in the Cesarewitch and he gave the one-time Hughie Morrison horse a peach of a ride, one befitting of a champion, to make it a third win in the race for Nicky Henderson.

Buzz came to deny Burning Victory and William Buick in the dying strides, maintaining his margin over his rival to eight, when had the result been turned around it would have been only six. Charlie isn’t giving up on his jockey though and plans to run plenty of talented maidens between now and D Day on Saturday. Burning Victory of course was only Mullins’ second string but it would have been a nice result for readers of this column who may have noticed my frequent mentions of the mare in recent weeks.

So we had a seven-year-old winner who hadn’t raced on the Flat for two years beating a mare who had never previously run in a Flat race either in England or Ireland outclassing 30 other stayers. Burning Victory’s defeat and the no show of favourite M C Muldoon stopped a Willie Mullins four-timer in this contest.

Why are jumps trainers so good at winning on the Flat? We’ve known about these two for decades, but another younger member of their profession, an Irishman based in Gloucestershire, is showing similar tendencies.

Until 16-year-old daughter Fern attained that age in the summer, her father Fergal O’Brien was so disinterested in Flat racing that he had only winner from 50 runners in sporadic seasons from 2013 to 2019.

Fern, mentored by Fergal’s assistant and partner Sally Randell, a former star military race rider, won at the first time of asking a couple of days after her birthday and now stands on four wins from eight rides for her father as a lady amateur. His other 16 runners have yielded another four victories, including smart hurdler Gumball making all in a decent staying handicap at York on Saturday and Polish getting home first in a jump jockeys’ Flat race at Goodwood yesterday.

That makes it eight from 24 and a strike rate of 33%, a figure the Gosdens, Balding, William Haggas and the rest would kill for. And none of them has 55 jump winners since the end of April either!

  • TS