A Study of Owners in UK Flat Racing, Part 1

As the title indicates, this article looks at some owner data for UK Flat and AW racing, writes Dave Renham. The period of study is from 1st January 2019 to 8th September 2024. Profit and loss has been calculated to Industry Starting Price, but I will quote Betfair SP when appropriate. This is the first of a two-part series.

Flat Owners’ Strike Rate League Table

Let's kick off by looking at the top 25 owners in terms of their strike rate (150 runs minimum to qualify):

 

 

Godolphin top the chart perhaps as one would expect, but hot on their heels is Marc Chan. The top six in the list all have decent A/E indices with four of that six hitting 1.00 or above. I will look at some of the owners in more detail later in the piece.

One owner to not quite make the cut is King Charles and Queen Camilla. Since taking over from the Queen at the end of 2022 the Royals have slimmed the operation down a little. They have had 21 winners from 164 runners (SR 13.8%), but losses have been steep, at £70.42 (ROI -42.9%). The A/E index stands on just 0.71. There has been performance drop off since the death of Her Majesty. From 2019 to 2022 Queen Elizabeth II had 270 runners of which 56 won (SR 20.1%) for a loss of £42.37 (ROI -15.2%); A/E index 0.92. It will be interesting to see if there is an improvement in performance with Royal runners over the next couple of seasons.

 

Godolphin

Godolphin had their first winner in December 1992 in Dubai and from 1994 the operation went global. At the time of researching this piece Sheikh Mohamed's racing entity winner-count worldwide stood at 8787, of which 430 came in Group 1 races.

Godolphin UK Annual Strike Rates

In this country they are based in Newmarket and have two trainers, Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Below are their overall yearly win strike rates.

 

 

There seems to have been a slight uptick in performance in the past three seasons (2022 to 2024). This has been reflected in the profit/loss column with 2019 to 2021 seeing losses of £368.61 (ROI -18.0%), while from 2022 to 2024 these have been much reduced to just -£38.48 (ROI -2.4%).

Godolphin Top Jockeys

Onto jockeys now and a look at all jockeys have had at least 60 rides for Godolphin and have ridden for them in 2024. I have ordered them by number of rides:

 

 

William Buick is the main stable jockey now James Doyle has moved on to Wathnan Racing. Doyle has still ridden for Godolphin this year but only 13 times and with just one win. Buick has an excellent record considering how many rides he has had. Betting all his rides would have yielded just a penny in the pound loss, while to BSP this moves into profit by £73.00 (ROI +6.8%). Oisin Murphy has an excellent record and primarily has ridden for bin Suroor. He’s only been called upon seven times so far in 2024 but has three wins from those rides. Going back to 2019 Murphy has an excellent record when riding in novice events. He has managed 18 wins from 41 rides (SR 43.9%) for a profit of £19.85 (ROI +48.4%). To BSP this improves to +£27.73 (ROI +67.6%).

Godolphin at Grade 1 Tracks

The next area to share is the stats at Grade 1 courses. This is where the biggest races tend to occur and a big operation like Godolphin do target quality.

 

 

The performances at Newmarket stand out. As you can see, I have split them into the Rowley and July courses, partly to show the consistency shown at Godolphin's local track. The two highest strike rates come from the Rowley and July course stats, both have shown profits to SP, and both A/E indices are comfortably above 1.00.

Now, the Godolphin stables are based in Newmarket, so the horses do not have to travel and are used to the surroundings. Even so, these stats are impressive especially given the quality of opposition they face at Headquarters. If you had backed all of their runners at Newmarket to BSP, profits would stand at an impressive +£172.44 (ROI +22.2%). If we look at the yearly BSP returns (ROI%) we see the following:

 

 

Profits in every single year showing excellent consistency. The last three years have been particularly strong.

William Buick has an outstanding record for Godolphin at the Suffolk track thanks to 133 winners from 368 (SR 36.1%) for a profit of £84.61 (ROI +23%). To BSP this climbs to +£121.46 (ROI +33%). Oisin Murphy is 10 from 22 and his mounts have returned a huge return to SP of 159 pence in the £. That has been achieved with the biggest priced winner being 9/1.

All in all, the Godolphin operation keeps firing year on year, and there are no signs of this abating.

 

Shadwell Estate Co (formerly Hamdan al Maktoum)

The Shadwell Estate is a world-renowned racing and breeding operation located in Britain, Ireland and the USA. Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum became one of the leading figures in international horseracing from the 1980s until his passing in 2021. He was champion Flat owner in Britain nine times, the last of which was in 2020. The operation is now run by his daughter, Sheikha Hissa. It is noticeable that the operation seems to have been streamlined since the death of Sheikh Hamdan with the number of runners per year roughly halving. This seems mainly due to the number of 2yo runners which have decreased dramatically.

In 2022 Shadwell had their best season in the 2019-2024 period hitting over 32% winners and returns to SP of 25p in the £. This year to date has been a little ‘sticky’ relatively with a strike rate of half that on 16.8% and losses edging close to 40p in the £. I am assuming 2024 has just been a small blip, based on going back further in time when they had similar strike rates in 2012, 2013 and 2016.

 

Shadwell Estate Trainer Performance

Below is a table showing trainers who have saddked at least 100 runners for Shadwell and at least one runner in 2024:

 

 

The Gosden, Varian and Burrows yards have all provided excellent long-term results, blind profits to SP and A/E indices above 1.00. This year two trainers in particular have struggled, with Charles Hills on just one win from 19 and Richard Hannon having drawn a blank from all of his 14 runners.

A trainer they may start to use more is Kevin Phillipart de Foy. He has had only four horses to date but three of them have won and overall, he has five wins from 12 from those horses.

In terms of jockeys, Jim Crowley gets the lion’s share of the rides and from 2019 to 2023 he made a blind profit to BSP in every single year, and to SP in four of the five years. This has not been the case this year which is no surprise given the 2024 figures shown above.

From a racecourse perspective, there are 11 courses where Shadwell has sent at least 100 runners since 2019. These favoured tracks have combined to produce a BSP profit of £199.67 (ROI 12.7%). I have graphed their A/E indices below:

 

 

Doncaster and Lingfield have extremely strong A/E indices of 1.29 and 1.26 respectively when Shadwell runners visit. At both courses they have provided good profits to both Industry SP and BSP and the strike rate at Lingfield has been better than one win in every three (34.3%). Kempton is another track where their runners have performed extremely well.

Shadwell Market Performance

Looking at the betting market, Shadwell runners have turned a profit on both favourites and second favourites:

 

 

To BSP profits stand at £45.85 (ROI +6.7%) for favs, and +£65.42 (ROI +14.4%) for second favs.

It will be interesting to see how Shadwell move forward in the next two or three years.

Cheveley Park Stud

The Cheveley Park Stud is Newmarket’s oldest stud farm and has been one of the major forces in European bloodstock and racing for over 35 years. With a strike rate of around one in six they have not been as successful as the likes of Godolphin, but there are still a few positive angles to share, as well as some negative ones.

Below is their annual breakdown:

 

 

As can be seen, it has been a little up and down. This year to date has been good, as was 2021. Last year saw quite a dip so it is difficult to get a handle on how things may go each year.

Cheveley Park Stud by Race Class

Onto to Class of Race next and here are the splits:

 

 

The headline here are those 38 wins at Class 1, with a profit to boot. To BSP this profit stands at £75.71 (ROI +29.3%) and sticking with BSP Class 1 races have yielded a profit in four of the six years. If we breakdown the Class 1 races we see that Listed races have offered the best returns:

 

 

All 17 wins from the Listed races have come with female runners. Females have provided 86 of the runners; the 11 male runners have drawn a blank. It should be noted at this point that around 75% of ALL the horses from Cheveley Park have been female with the vast majority of these being fillies, most of the colts from the stud being sent to auction.

Cheveley Park Performance by Surface

With most of Cheveley Park's runners being fillies, I suspect that the turf versus all-weather stats are worth looking at. Generally, female runners find it harder on the all-weather than on grass, so I am predicting that the red, white and blue-silked runners have a slightly better record on turf. Let’s see:

 

 

No surprises here. The turf figures are far superior to the all-weather ones across the board.

Cheveley Park Performance by Trainer

A look at trainers next. Firstly, a comparison of strike rates across the main trainers (60 runs minimum):

 

 

Quite a variance here, ranging from William Haggas at over 22% to Roger Varian at under 10%. Let’s see which trainers have produced the best A/E indices over the period of study:

 

 

David O’Meara is the standout with an A/E index of 1.11. He had a decent strike rate of close to 19% and has been profitable with Cheveley Park runners to both SP (12p in the £) and BSP (24p in the £). Also take notice if Danny Tudhope is booked to ride for O’Meara and Cheveley Park. They have combined to secure a 54% profit to SP, 71% to BSP.

The Gosden stats look a bit weird as they have been profitable to SP (18p in £) and BSP (26p in the £), but their A/E index is down at 0.84. However, this is because of a below average performance with shorter-priced runners. For the record the stable has made an SP profit in five of the six years.

Cheveley Park Market Performance

Finally for Cheveley Park, let me share some market data because it caught my eye. When the SP has been short (9/4 or shorter) the results have been quite poor. The ownership entity has managed 100 wins from 294 qualifiers (SR 34%), but losses have been significant at £69.53 (ROI –23.7%).

But when their runners have drifted in price from Early Odds (around 9am in the morning) to their final SP they have made a profit if backing to BSP. There have been 749 horses which have lengthened in price from Early Odds to SP of which 108 have won (SR 14.4%) for a BSP profit to £81.08 (ROI +10.8%). So don’t be put off by a Cheveley Park drifter. Drifters at single figure BSP prices have made a profit so these figures are not skewed by several big priced winners.

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That concludes my first piece. I hope there have been some useful nuggets for you to take advantage of in the future. I will continue from where I left off next time. Until then...

- DR

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Price Movement in NH Racing Markets
• More on Price Movement from Opening Show
• A Study of Owners in UK Flat Racing, Part 2
• Seeking Value with Female Flat Jockeys
• Early Odds to Opening Odds to Starting Price