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Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Four Preview, Tips

Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Four Preview, Tips

And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.

Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...

1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

Let me start with the strongest past race trends:

- 14 of the last 18 winners were priced with an SP 10/1 or shorter.
- There have been 5 winning favourites in the last 11.
- 9 of the last 18 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO. This means that 50% of the winners have come from only 22% of the total runners.
- 30 horses have come into the race unbeaten and 7 have won. Backing all 30 would have yielded a BSP profit of £18.77 and returns of 62p in the £.
- 5 winners for Willie Mullins, albeit from 55 runners, and 4 from 19 for Nicky Henderson.
- Female horses have won 2 of the last 6 races and they had a 1-2-3 in 2023

Poniros was a shock 100/1 winner last year but generally, as the trends have suggested, this race tends to be dominated by horses nearer the top of the market. It looks wide open this year and here are the main contenders:

Minella Study - Minella Study is three from three over hurdles, including an impressive win at the course last time out. That race has worked out fairly well and other positives are that he has generally jumped well and seems to stay. He looks a very fair price to me as I think if he was trained by either Henderson or Skelton, he would be shorter.

Maestro Conti - Maestro Conti is part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and trained by Dan Skelton. He started off his life in France, winning at Moulins before making it two from two at Kempton just after Christmas. Last time out he won the JCB Triumph Trial at Cheltenham, finishing off strongly to make three from three in his career, which as noted earlier is a positive trend for this race. Along with Manilla Study, he represents a second decent chance for the Brits.

Proactif - Unbeaten in two starts, so that’s a positive trends-wise. His win at Fairyhouse in January looks the best trial and he won that quite impressively. Comments after that win from connections were positive, despite them feeling he was still a little green. Trained by the master Willie Mullins, he looks a solid enough market leader.

Selma De Vary - Had five runs in France before moving to Willie Mullins, the last of which was super impressive when coming from last to first and sluicing up by nearly 10 lengths. Her first run for the Irish maestro was a decent second at the beginning of February at Leopardstown. She is expected to come on a bundle for that. Matches most of the trends so is definitely one to consider seriously.

Macho Man - A third Mullins runner with a chance. Was second to Proactif at Fairyhouse and hence has around 3 lengths to find on that run.

Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

 

Triumph Hurdle Selection

Willie Mullins has won the last four renewals and five out of the last six. Hence, we need to take all his fancied runners seriously. Selma De Vary is my preferred option at the prices. She ticks lots of the boxes and I think she will improve a ton from her last run.

Suggestion: 1pt Win Selma De Vary

Matt's Tix Pix: Selma on A, plenty on B

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2.00 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

Previewed by David Massey.

This year’s County Hurdle should be run at a very solid pace, with quite a few of those towards the foot of the handicap likely to go forward. That’s been a good tactic over the first two days, but as I type this up, the wind is getting up and it’s blowing quite hard down the track, so the front-runners are going to be feeling the force of it as they turn in.

So I’m looking for something that can sit fairly handy in behind the leaders, getting some cover, that’s got Cheltenham form. Plus something that’s got a bit of added stamina needed to win this and that’s nicely weighted. Step forward Jubilee Alpha.

She’s always had a bit of quality about her - a winner at Listed level, placed at Grade 2 in bumpers - and for all she hasn’t won this season, she’s had some tough tasks made harder by the fact she isn’t the biggest for carrying big weights. Twice this season she’s humped 12st around, and I think she’ll appreciate the fact she’s only got 10-11 to carry here, a far lesser burden for one of her size. A winner over 2m4f here last April, she’ll not mind the ground either; yes, there’s some rain coming, but this strong wind is going to blow it through and it’ll dry it up very quickly too. It won’t ride much slower than good in my opinion by Friday afternoon. Hopefully she can put a smile on Paul Nicholls’ face, as there wasn’t one on Thursday after No Drama This End, I can assure you.

Punters have started to cotton on to Tellherthename too, on his first start for Dan Skelton. A very useful novice for Ben Pauling, it never really happened for him when moved to Jonjo last year, but the quotes coming from the trainer have been very positive. It appears he’s working well and has refound his mojo. If that’s the case, they have a well-handicapped horse on their hands, and one that has the potential to be a gamble on the day.

Sinatra is the more obvious Skelton runner in the race, and his form has been franked by Act Of Innocence this week, third to that one in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon last month. As an aside, how well handicapped is second-home Glance At Midnight? No wonder the Skeltons went to 245k to buy it not long after. He will race close to the pace, without necessarily being at the head of it. A mark of 133 looks very workable, and for your placepots and each-way multis on the day, he’s a must.

County Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

County Hurdle Pace Map

 

County Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Jubilee Alpha

Matt's Tix Pix: Mixing up the Skeltons and Mullins

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2.40 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Not many people's favourite race at the Festival but, given that - unlike all the gelding G1's - its runners can actually reproduce, it is an important one for the breed. The Irish have had a chokehold on matters since its inception in 2021 and they are again well represented at the top of the market.

Dinoblue is a warm favourite in her bid to defend her title, something none of the three to attempt that previously have managed to do. All five winners to date were aged seven or eight. Dinoblue is nine. Those facts won't stop her but they do hint at the difficulty in keeping mares sweet to that sort of age: most of the half decent ones have gone to the paddocks by this time and it will be this mare's turn soon enough.

In her favour, she's versatile with regards to ground and trip, and her Festival form reads 9221. Against that is the fact she was sent off 11/8, 7/2, 15/8 and 6/4 - favourite each time; based on those odds, I guess she's just about on her expected winners score! Excluding seasonal debuts, her form in the past two campaigns reads 411111, very often at prohibitively cramps odds. It's not her fault that she's faced limited opposition but it does leave the door ajar to a potentially more battle hardened mare.

Step forward Spindleberry, unbeaten in five chase starts before pulling up in the Irish Gold Cup last time. That was an odd prep for the Mares' Chase but it also nods to the esteem in which she's held by connections. But it was still an odd prep! Let's pretend that didn't happen and instead judge her on the prior quintet of chase wins. She was given a huge RPR of 160 for winning a Listed race at Doncaster, but her two next best figures are 152 and 145. The two horses behind her at Donny to have run since have both been beaten favourites on their subsequent starts and I'm calling bluff on the big number. I also really don't like that 'P' last time. If she's better than I think she is, fair enough.

Panic Attack is even older than Dinoblue - she's ten - and is enjoying an Indian Winter (if you see what I mean) having won three in a row including, in pre-decimal money, the Mackeson and the Hennessy - remember when booze firms sponsored horse races? As if that heady autumnal double wasn't enough, you have to watch her romp at Newbury last time to believe it. Not in terms of the strength of the performance or the ratings it produced, but just from a sheer joie de vivre perspective. You can catch it here - I just watched it again (again) and it is a thing of beauty. As impressive as she unarguably was, the level of that form - and of her two big handicap wins, off 135 and 139 - is at least 7lb shy of the pick of Dinoblue's.

Interesting, if hard to peg, is Diva Luna. The Ben Pauling inmate was 3rd in last year's Dawn Run - a race contested by the last three Mares' Chase winners a season prior to their big Friday successes. She's done all that's been asked of her in two facile successes over fences this season but has recorded barely a murmur on the Richter scale speed or form wise in this context. She's been off the track 92 days - "whacked a joint" according to the trainer - which is not ideal. But he's still talking up her chance and I respect that.

The heart breaker for me would be Only By Night, backed at 100/1 here for the Champion Chase. To be fair, she'd have had place chances at best there, whereas in this field she is a credible win option. Her form against the boys - Majborough, Jango Baie, L'Eau du Sud et al - reads very well in this company, but she is stepping up from two to two and a half miles for the first time over fences (she was thumped in a heavy ground 2m4f G1 novice hurdle two years ago).

I think she'll stay - she's normally waited with and will be given every chance to get home - and she handles most ground. It's interesting that they've returned the cheekpieces that didn't seem to help especially in her first try with them last time.

The novice July Flower won a trip and (other) track novice chase here at the November meeting before running a respectable third to Romeo Coolio and Irish Panther in a G1 at Christmas. Neither of those showed up well this week and she looks to have a little to find with more experienced mares.

Mares' Chase Recent Winners

*New race in 2021

 

 

Mares' Chase Pace Map

It appears they'll go quick, with both Dinoblue and Diva Luna usual taking their fields along. There are two or three others who can show themselves early, too, so it'll likely be a fair test.

 

Mares Chase 2026 Pace Map

Mares Chase 2026 Pace Map

 

Mares' Chase Selection

This is quite a messy race. Dinoblue has the best form, Panic Attack has created the winningest (sic) visual impression, and there are a good few up-and-comers with place prospects at least. The top two in the market have won four of the five renewals to date, and the third pick won the other one, so it may not be a race to get too cute with. That said, I'm going to chance Only By Night each way for small money. She showed plenty against the fellas in both the Arkle and a G1 at Punchestown last term to suggest she's not far off the pick of these mares.

Suggestion: Try Only By Night each way at 15/2

Matt's Tix Pix: Dinoblue on A; Only By Night, Diva Luna and Panic Attack on B

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3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

"What's this?"

"I durrn't knur, it's all coover'd in't mood"

"It's a pottairr-toe, lad".

You need to be as old as me to get that reference to a crisps advert from the 1970's, but any vintage should by now be able to grasp the nub of geegeez's approach to solving the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, affectionately known as "the potato race" - they're a spuds firm, you see...

The key to betting this race is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season.

Just two winner returneds a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013 - and both of those were well backed Willie's in the lead up to the race - so we're going to be taking a swing. In fact, I'd played last year's 6/1 scorer Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 after the Dublin Racing Festival. Bully for me, though I did highlight his case on this basis prior to last year's win right here, and that's a nod to the sideways thinking required here.

So here's the plan: we're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. This was JdV last year, including his Alby win:

 

 

Won a big field maiden hurdle, 4th in back to back G1 novices at shorter, won a big field Albert Bartlett.

And in 2024, Stellar Story at 33/1 was another archetypal winner:

 

 

Small field Graded form in defeat, a big field maiden hurdle win to start the season, and then boom. Like JdV, SS had won a bumper and also an Irish point.

Both of those horses ran fourth in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy at DRF, and this year's 4th has a similar looking profile at a similarly huge price. He's called Riskaway, and he won a big field maiden in the autumn before getting outpaced in a four-runner dawdle over 2m4f - and then seemed to weaken late on in the aforementioned G1. It is always the case with these types of play that they could massively bomb out, but he fits the identikit and he's... 50/1!

Also from that DRF G1 is Kazansky, like Riskaway trained by Gordon Elliott. He was second at Leopardstown, doing his good work late and suggesting the longer trip and presumed quicker tempo may play to his A game.

The other angle into the Albert Bartlett, which sometimes overlaps with the one showcased above, is "the wrong Willie". Mullins has won this in recent years with horses priced at 18/1 and 16/1 as well as 5/1 and 6/1 - both the shorties well punted in the lead up to the race. Paul Townend has ridden three of that quartet, though he was second rider behind Ruby in the first of the years. Doctor Steinberg is Closutton's obvious contender, having won the Nathaniel Lacy. But he has no form in big field hurdle races, the tempo here almost certain to be a new experience for him. He might cope, and he might be very good and just win - but as I hope you can see by now, that's not really the way to bet this one.

Perhaps the horse Sortudo beat in his maiden - Jalon d'Oudairies - can step up. A dual bumper winner in 2023, he was 3rd to Jasmin de Vaux in the 2024 Champion Bumper before missing the entirety of the following season. This term, after that pipe opener behind Sortudo, he just got outsped by the decent Frankie John over 2m4f before winning his maiden by 27 lengths at 1/10 odds!

The G1 element comes from his Champion Bumper run, and we have to take a bit on trust that he can run to that level over obstacles: the evidence suggests he probably can. Seven-year-olds have comfortably the best win strike rate even if more six-year-olds have won the 'spuds'; that's because the latter age group has been represented by nearly two and a half times as many runners. You can see from the trends below that the winners in 2024, 2022, 2018, 2015 and 2010 were all 7yo, and returned 33/1, 18/1, 33/1, 14/1 and 33/1 respectively.

Road Exile has a 'sort of' profile for this race. The missing component is any sort of form over a distance - he's run exclusively at two ish miles to date under Rules - but he was a rallying nose second in a 2m2f bumper and also won his point over three miles... so maybe he is more interesting that I thought! He managed to get it done in a 26-runner maiden hurdle before being predictably run out of it by the smart flat horse Sober in a three horse G2 over the minimum. He's definitely worth chancing on this big step up in trip.

The one I like most from the top of the market, and aged seven coincidentally, is Thedeviluno. Big field maiden win? Tick - and beat Skylight Hustle no less. Outpaced in small field Graded race? Tick - and by Doctor Steinberg no less. Shown reserves of stamina? Tick - when running on from the rear to win the G2 River Don at Doncaster by five lengths on very soft ground.

Another Elliott runner, Spinningayarn, was quite well backed last week. He has the big field maiden win and followed that up in a five-runner rated novice hurdle. That's decent form and there'll doubtless be more to come, but it's not the profile we're looking for here.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Always a ton of pace in the 'spuds' and it'll take a lot of getting.

 

Albert Bartlett 2026 Pace Map

Albert Bartlett 2026 Pace Map

 

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

If I was betting one at the head of the betting, it would be Thedeviluno, hands down. But I'm not. Even though he's having a tricky week (at time of writing, after Wednesday's racing), I'm playing three big-priced Gordies against the field in Kazansky, Jalons d'Oudairies and Road Exile. Thedevilunotakethehindmost.

Suggestion: Roll with something slow at a price. Some suggestions in the sentence above.

Matt's Tix Pix: Thedeviluno, Kazansky on A, many more on B.

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4.00 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The highlight of the whole week for many is the Gold Cup, a test of stamina and class over more than three and a quarter miles.

Defending champion Inothewayurthinkin has been a shell of his dual Festival-winning self this season, beaten 53 lengths in the John Durkan, 41 lengths in the Savills, and falling at the last when exhausted and beaten in the Irish Gold Cup. It's true that, prior to winning his Gold Cup, he'd not won - that previous season being beaten 36 lengths, 15 lengths and seven lengths in the same three races. Whilst there remains an argument that he's a spring horse, this would be a near Lazarine comeback.

From the same stable as Galopin is Gaelic Warrior, routed here as Fact To File went to the Ryanair. Once thought 'gone at the game', he's quietly amassed a formidable record of ten wins from 18 starts, five of them at Grade 1 level. That top tier quintet includes the Aintree Bowl last spring over 3m1f, and he was two noses away from King George glory in that scintillating finish at Christmas. He's since run a nice prep when a five length second to Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup, with plenty of these behind him that day.

It must be many a year since two British-trained horses have featured so prominently in the betting and there was little more than a half length between The Jukebox Man and Jango Baie in the King George. That the former won and the latter was out of the frame illustrates what a bobby dazzler of a finish it was. TJM, famously owned by Harry Redknapp, comes here on a five-timer and is unbeaten in his first four chase starts including the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) as well as the King George, both over three miles at Kempton.

He looked a strong enough stayer at Christmas, getting up on the line having not been the quickest over the final fence, but we have to guess at his stamina reserves on a stiffer track and with more than an extra quarter mile to run. He was agonisingly chinned in the Albert Bartlett of 2024, on heavy ground, so there's obvious stamina in the locker.

I wonder how many horses turned up in the Gold Cup having won the Arkle a year earlier? That's the non-standard route taken by Jango Baie, who was outpaced until that two mile novice chase fell apart in front of him. That is not to decry his performance, under a brilliant Nico de Boinville ride; it is simply a fact that without his shuddering blunder Majborough would have won, and further that Only By Night seems to need delivering literally on the line to get her nose in front. Candidly, I'm not sold on his form or his stamina capabilities in what looks likely to be a bit of a war of attrition. If I'm wrong, hats off, but the Ascot run could have flattered him (main market rival pulled up), and he was close but still behind three other horses in the King George.

I am a big fan of Haiti Couleurs but not in a fast ground Gold Cup. I can see him winning very good races after today but surely he'll be run off his feet by quicker and classier, but less tough, horses.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

I don't really have a strong opinion, and only a token suggestion is the classy Gaelic Warrior. He doesn't have the stamina of some of these but he ought to travel beautifully through the race. You could make some sort of case for most of them, though.

Suggestion: Try Gaelic Warrior e/w.

Matt's Tix Pix: Going deep and taking plenty

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4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

Wonderwall was a slightly surprising winner of this last year and returns to defend his crown. His form over fences in the UK was nothing special, carrying an official rating of just 118 into this contest, but he was transformed in points by Sam Curling and was a worthy winner from Its On The Line and Willitgoahead who both reoppose. The winning margin was a neck, but Wonderwall idled before rallying to win and he must be considered a player with Rob James again in the saddle. He’s raced just once this season, winning a point at Dromahane in November, but connections report that he is “in terrific form and primed for tomorrow."

Curling is a talented trainer of pointers and staying chasers and also has another ex-English runner here in Wrappedupinmay, who left Paul Nicholls last year with a rating of 118, and has improved in points for Curling, with his only defeat coming first time up in a ladies’ open. He’s beaten Ryehill and Mac’s Charm on his last two starts between the flags on soft and heavy ground, and will relish any rain that falls, but it’s worth noting that the runners-up in those points were well beaten in the Tetratema Cup Hunters Chase at the weekend.

Its On The Line has been runner-up in this race for the last three years and it could be argued that he should have won last season, running on strongly to join Wonderwall up the hill but then outbattled by that rival. Nonetheless, his record here ought to be considered a positive rather than a negative, and he’s still young enough to succeed, having his first run in this when a raw six-year-old. Derek O’Connor is considered the finest amateur riding in Ireland and is always a positive here, but his only win in this race, surprisingly, came aboard Zemsky 15 years ago.

Its On The Line has been beaten twice in points this season but won a well-contested hunter at Down Royal at Christmas, beating Willitgoahead and Con’s Roc. That pair are also of interest, with the former third in this last year fairly shortly after joining Gordon Elliott. He flopped at Aintree and Punchestown before returning to form at Down Royal and has claims at his best, but it’s hard to bank on from the Elliott stable this week, a remark which also applies to Chemical Energy.

CON’S ROC was an eyecatcher at Down Royal, forced to switch between the last two fences and running on best of all. He failed to qualify for this race last year, despite an impressive point win over Willitgoahead at Limerick, needing to win a point after that but finishing second to Rocky’s Howya, who was only 4th at Limerick. That hunter win counted towards this year’s qualification and he sealed his place with another hunter chase win (at Fairyhouse). Darragh Allen is his regular rider and I’m quite sweet on his chances, with the collateral form stacking up well, and the extra yardage likely to suit this sound jumper.

Panda Boy was a useful handicap chaser who has won two hunter chases since switching to this sphere, beating good yardsticks in Hunter’s Yarn at Naas and Lifetime Ambition at Thurles. He has a mixed record in big fields and I was interested to hear Patrick Mullins say he thought the horse was enjoying taking on fewer rivals in his new role. He can sulk, as he did in the Grand National a couple of years back, getting badly behind, but is very useful on his day. My main concern with him is that John Gleeson has limited experience over fences under rules, with just one win to his name to date.

Stattler is now with Faye Bramley and the mount of Patrick Mullins, but he was workmanlike at best winning a hunter at Fakenham last month and doesn’t look the force of old. Barton Snow is a prolific winner in points and hunters for Joe O’Shea but while he’s won at a sharp 3m, he’s a winner over two miles here and there has to be a question about his ability to stay this extended trip. O’Shea also has Gracchus de Balme, who won the Aintree Foxhunter last year, but he’s a moody sort who disappointed last time and was readily beaten by Music Drive over C&D in May. Music Drive was fourth in this race under Ellie Callwood last year and is clearly suited by track and trip, so needs a second look, but Callwood lacks experience and looked rather weak in the finish last year.

Golden Son is likely to be ridden forward by Olive Nicholls for her father, and he’s won both starts in hunters this year. He could do better, but I think it will stretch his stamina to the limit if he tries to make all, and he might be more appealing at Aintree or Punchestown. Stablemate Shearer is useful, but there is no real reason to expect him to better his creditable fifth in this race 12 months ago. The others are all 40/1 or bigger, and while a couple of those are capable of outrunning their odds, the above look the main contenders on paper.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners

 

 

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map

The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.

 

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

Suggestion: 1pt e/w Con’s Roc @ 15/2 (general - 4 places)

Matt's Tix Pix: Top four in the betting on A

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5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Gavin Priestley.

The Irish have won 10 of the last 15 renewals with Elliott and Mullins responsible for 4 wins each.

Mullins has targeted, and won, this race with some very decent horses since it's inception (Don Poli & Galopin Des Champs) and it's obviously a race he likes to win while keeping one eye on the future.

Before the Festival started I took an in depth look at the Mullins handicap winners and part of this research found that all 8 handicap hurdle winners he's trained over the last 9 years had exactly the same profile. We can cover all 4 of his winners of this particular race going back to his first winner in 2011 using the same stats but concentrating solely on the 5 and 6yo's he's sent to this race. If we slightly adjust these stats it shows:

All 4 winners of the Martin Pipe were 5-6yo
All 4 had not previously run in a handicap
All 4 had been rested at least 20 days since their last start
All 4 were rated 134+
All 4 were 12/1 or shorter
All 4 last ran over hurdles at 2m-3m

Applying these 6 simple stats to the Mullins runners since 2009 would have found all 4 winners and 2 places from just 11 such runners.

So what does it mean for this year's race?

Mullins has 5 runners this year and we can see that it's only KEL HISTOIRE that ticks all the boxes from those 6 race trends.

He's finished 5th in two 2 mile Grade 3's, where he's looked a little outpaced, and he should appreciate this step up to 2m4f here. Having a very strong trends profile and being owned by JP McManus (like 2 of the last 7 winners) he's obviously attracted the attention of the bookmakers and is towards the top of the betting market. Although the favourite hasn't won since 2011 (Mullins trained that winner), the race has tended to go to the fancied runners with 5 of the last 8 winners returning at 8/1 or shorter.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners

 

 

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

 

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

It's a race for the plot horses from the big Irish stables and Kel Histoire is another runner who fits that bill. It looks very much like Mullins is looking to improve on his current tally of 4 winners in the race with a runner that will be well worth keeping an eye on when he goes chasing.

Suggestion: KEL HISTOIRE 1pt

 

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And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2026. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.

Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham and Gavin Priestley are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.

Be lucky.

Matt

 

Royal Ascot 2025: Day 3 Preview, Tips

Into 'hump day', better known as Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3 - we go. The marathon Group 1 is the feature and, with the weather set fair it will be riding quick, so let's get straight to it.

2.30 THE NORFOLK STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Victor Value

The Norfolk Stakes is a Group 2 run over five furlongs. First run in 1843, it was renamed in 1973 in honour of the 16th Duke of Norfolk, Queen Elizabeth II’s Representative at Ascot from 1945 to 1972. The race achieved its Group 2 status in 2006.

Trends to Note

In recent years, this race has sprung the odd huge surprise. The Ridler (2022) scored at 50/1, and the following year Valiant Force (2023) won at 150/1!

I’m not digging deep into trends today, but from a draw perspective it’s worth noting that horses drawn 11+ are 0 winners from 37 runners, 6 places. That’s an interesting trend given the Exp/Wins=3.28 for those runners.

Contenders

Sixteen have been declared for this year’s Norfolk Stakes, and the first thing that stands out is that short-priced favourite Charles Darwin is drawn in stall 15.

After a good look, just four runners have made my final shortlist:

Charles Darwin: Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the son of No Nay Never has made all to win his last two (of three) starts at Navan. Looked a high-class juvenile last time, visually impressive, and the time backed that up. At a best-priced 13/8 on Tuesday afternoon, he looked value based on form good enough to win the last five renewals. The only negative is his high draw.

Sandal’s Song: Overcame a slow start to show good speed when winning on debut at Gulfstream Park (firm ground). A sprinting type on looks, he’s been purchased by Wathnan Racing, and if he handles a straight track, I think he’ll go very close. Triner George Weaver saddled the 2023 Queen Mary winner, subsequently bought by Wathnan, so he knows what is required to win a Royal Ascot juvenile contest.

Naval Light (Karl Burke): Bought for 360,000 gns at the Craven Breeze-ups by Wathnan Racing. Finished second to Old Is Gold in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley on racecourse debut. He was slowly away that day and ran green in the early stages of the race but once the penny dropped, finished off well. Burke won this last year with a colt who had won the Beverley race. Retained jockey James Doyle opts for him over Sandal’s Song with James McDonald riding the latter which is no negative.

Afjan: The speedy son of Mehmas overcame greenness to win on debut at Chantilly 18 days ago. He produced a high-class turn of foot to win that day and is open to plenty of improvement. I was impressed with this success, and I think the stiffer Ascot 5f will suit.

Norfolk Stakes Verdict

I only fancy four of the 16 runner’s - cue a big- priced winner like The Ridler or Valiant Force!  I will be quite surprised if one of that quartet doesn’t win. Charles Darwin’s form is rock solid and he’s a worthy favourite. However, I want to take him on because of the draw and his price. His nearest market rival is Naval Light who will win races this season and most likely at Group level.  However, I was hoping for better than a best priced 4/1.  At bigger odds I prefer American challenger Sandal’s Song - he looks a big price to me - and French-trained colt Afjan.

Selection: Afjan – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Despite being over a mile and a half and with the low stalls on the inside these days (it wasn’t ever thus), there is no advantage to be drawn in single figures in the King George V Handicap (or the Duke of Edinburgh over the same track and trip for the three-year-olds); and, to demonstrate, I’ve compiled the results by draw since 2001, which shows that nine horses have won the race from single figure draws, but that ten have won from stall 15 or higher in the same timeframe. So punters should consider those drawn high to be at some sort of advantage, for all that may seem to defy conventional wisdom. In reality, the stiff track confers no advantage to front runners, and those coming from off the pace tend to fan out from the inner rail in the straight, with travelling a little further no hardship in the grand scheme of things.

That isn’t to say that you can’t win from a low draw, but those who do are rarely helped by a position near the rail, except in the rare circumstance where the fastest ground is on the far rail, as it was in 2022, when the race was dominated by those who sat handily. The first six home in the Norfolk Stakes that year were all drawn low, and if that is repeated then you should take note. When the draw on the straight course favours high numbers, then that tends to be repeated on the round course, too, and early signs are that will be the case this year.

It's possible to make all from a wide draw, although those who have done so have tended to keep off the inside rail until near the turn, and recent years have shown a bias towards strong-staying hold-up performers from high-to-mid berths. Last year Going The Distance (stall 18) beat Neski Sherelski (19) and if you listened to Simon Holt’s commentary, you’ll notice that they are called as the last pair to reach the home turn. In 2023, Desert Hero (21) had three or four behind him on the home turn before winning. In contrast the last three positions that year were filled by horses drawn wide who were up with the pace.

On the face of it, Sing Us A Song is likely to be one of the front runners here having made all to win on his handicap debut at Sandown last time, but I think that James Doyle will be more patient than Hector Crouch was there. Sing Us A Song gallops like a stayer and Crouch took him forward last time to utilise his stamina over a trip which is a minimum for him, fending off challenges in the straight and never stronger than up the climb to the line at Sandown.

Given the extra demands on stamina here, there is no need to be aggressive on Sing Us A Song, who strikes me as the type to take another leap forward in form terms for this stiffer test and I hope that Doyle allows him to find his stride in the early stages before launching a bid from off the pace. He is a full-brother to the ill-fated Sir Erec, who was placed in the British Champions Long Distance Cup as a three-year-old and a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, but sadly broke a leg when favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. His dam is also a half-sister to Mahler, who was placed in the St Leger and Melbourne Cup, so all the signs are that this trip and further are going to bring out the best in him. I like him a lot.

Recommendation: Sing Us A Song (Win/Each-way) at 8/1 with bet365 (5 places)

 

3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A mile and a half for three-year-old fillies - an Ascot Oaks if you will. Being so close to the original (and still the best) Epsom variant means we only have one filly - Go Go Boots - coming here from there, and she's not especially fancied by the market. The top three from the betting lists have fared well enough - bagging eight of the last twelve Ribblesdales between them - but the jolly has only two wins in that time.

Aidan and Johnny G (now with Thady G as well) have won most of that dozen, three-quarters in fact, the Ballydoyle man owning most recent bragging rights as he and Ryan Moore have paired up to take the most recent two renewals. Not since Lady Cecil's Riposte won in 2013 has a filly unraced at two won the Ribblesdale, which might be a concern for the top two in the current lists, Serenity Prayer and Catalina Delcarpio.

Serenity Prayer is trained by Andrew Balding and won a traditionally strong Newbury fillies' maiden on debut before beating all bar Whirl in the Musidora, the key Oaks trial, at York last time. Nevertheless, she was more than five lengths inferior to the winner on the Knavesmire though it should of course be noted that Whirl all but won the Oaks, beaten just a neck. After just two starts she can be expected to stride forward on what she's shown to date.

Go Go Boots was only a neck behind Serenity Prayer at York and, if she just didn't handle Epsom, she is over-priced.

The same is true of Catalina Delcarpio whose form figures of 12 mirror Serenity's. She's trained by Paddy Twomey, and also won a maiden easily - at Leopardstown in her case - before running second in a Group 3. That form has not worked out well, though the winner was fourth at Epsom and most of the rest were beaten far enough.

The Moore / O'Brien axis is represented by a far more experienced filly in Garden Of Eden. She's been second and first in a brace of Listed contests either side of her winter break, but was well enough beaten in a couple of mile Group 3's at the start of this term. Stepping up to ten furlongs last time, she led all the way in the Naas Oaks Trial; her pedigree hardly screams she wants to go further but who am I to second guess the great man?

John and Thady run two more candidates as well as Go Go Boots, led by Life Is Beautiful. Thrice raced, she won a Kempton maiden on debut before running second to a nice filly in a novice back at the same track (both mile races). Upped to a mile and a quarter last time saw her run up again, behind the unbeaten Coronation Stakes favourite Falakeyah.

Understudy may be just that here. She's got a lovely staying pedigree - by Sea The Stars out of a Selkirk mare - but this is huge leap in grade from a Class 5 Southwell novice. Still, she's bound to be capable of better in time.

Charlie Johnston saddled Caspi Star to be third to Oaks winner Minnie Hauk in the Cheshire Oaks. She was beaten half the distance Serenity Prayer was by Whirl, with Minnie Hauk edging that one out, so 10/1 this lass feels more attractive than 3/1 the jolly. She's improved a stone and more in two runs since getting bested by Lady Vivian, though that one has also stepped forward and doubled up in a handicap at the Chester May meeting last time.

Aidan O'Brien also runs Ecstatic and Island Hopping, the former another experienced filly for whom excuses can be made the last couple of starts: messy race, no run at Newbury and may not have handled the soft turf at Navan the time before. She does need them, however. Island Hopping was behind Garden Of Eden in Listed class last time but may be slightly more stoutly bred and may also be enlivened by the first time blinkers.

Suggestion: I think the percentage play is Garden Of Eden at around 5/1 win only despite the stamina reservation. She did seem to improve for the extra quarter mile last time and, if she can do likewise for a further two-eights, she's value against the inexperienced pair atop the market. Caspi Star at 10's might be an interesting small each way play based on her Chester run..

 

4.20 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A smallish field of eight line up for the Blue Riband and, in the absence of the sadly retired Kyprios, it's a more open contest than might otherwise have been the case. The question is, does Aidan O'Brien have a ready made replacement for his injured star stayer in the shape of Illinois?

Four-year-old have won all bar four of the last dozen Gold Cups, and of the quartet of older winners, three were repeaters who'd won prevoiusly aged four - Kyprios once and Stradivarius twice. Without a repeater, the youngest eligible age group looks the right focus. It's another race where Messrs O'Brien and the Gosdens have something of a hegemony with both well invested this time around.

The favourite, Illinois, comes from Ballydoyle and is from the penultimate crop of mega-sire Galileo. Winner of the Queen's Vase this time last year, he finished the season with second in the St Leger; this season's pipe opener was a cosy success in the Ormonde Stakes and he comes here in fine fettle, the second from Chester going a place better at York last weekend. This is, however, a step up in trip and in class, Illinois never having raced beyond the extended mile and three quarters of the St Leger. He seems an uncomplicated sort so ought to give himself every chance of relaxing into a good rhythm, though he does usually race handily.

Second choice is the Gosdens' Trawlerman, a perennial forward goer. He stays well and acts on quick turf as he showed when a length behind Kyprios in the race last year, a repeat of which would likely be good enough to take top honours this time around. He won by five lengths on his return from Dubai, in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. He's likely to bid to make all but, at seven years young, time may not be on his side against less exposed rivals.

One of those is the French raider Candelari, trained by Francis-Henri Graffard. He made his debut on the all-weather through the winter before seamlessly reverting to turf; his second grass spin, last time out, was a staying on win in the almost two miles Prix Vicomtesse Vigier, a Group 1. A feature of his races is switching off and rattling home late: he'll not have too much time to gather his thoughts in the short home straight at Ascot but he looks like he'll relish the extra range. This will be just his sixth career start so there's probably more in the lockeur.

It would be a shock, to me at least, if any of the rest were to win. Sweet William was five lengths behind Trawlerman last term and is a year older now; Wonder Legend improve 16lb on the all-weather through the winter but this is big ask (he's vaguely interesting e/w); and I don't expect the veterans Coltrane, Yashin or Dubai Future to, well, have a future, in the context of this G1 at any rate.

Illinois might be the one but he's a fair bit to prove at his sub-2/1 quote. I think Trawlerman likely just sets it up for a younger closer - though fair play to him if I'm wrong on that; and so the one I'm siding with is Frenchie Candelari, whose chance will depend to some degree on Mikael Barzelona getting his fractions right. He doesn't always. Will it be Ooh la la! or Zut alors?!

Suggestion: Back CANDELARI to win at 10/3 (or 3/1 or better).

 

5.00 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

The Thirsk piece of form where Terroom beat Parole D’Oro is where I’m going to start this form guide for the Brittania, as the pair of them feature highly towards the top of the market, and I think it might be a strong piece of form. 

Terroom came out on top by ¾l that day, but Parole D’Oro travelled like the best horse (traded 1.03 in the run) and just couldn’t quite finish the job off. Terroom went on to show the form as solid by winning again at Haydock, beating Tilted Kilt ¾l.

Going back to Thirsk, Parole D’Oro was giving Terroom 2lb that day, yet gets 4lb today, plus there’s the addition of a tongue tie, which you’d like to think would help him see it out a little stronger. That 6lb turnaround in the weights makes me think Parole d’Oro can reverse form today, and I like where he’s berthed, in stall 24, with a potential pace angle in The Lost King next door in 25 to give him a tow into it.

At 33s and bigger, despite what looks a moderate draw, Mr Chaplin has to be on the shortlist too. We liked him a lot, physically, when winning a nursery at Glorious Goodwood last year (paddock pick) and, off the back of that, he took his chance against The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court in the Group 3 Acomb at York. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he was unable to land a blow against such classy opposition but ran respectably and was spotted running on late. He tried making all in the Flying Scotsman on his final start of last year and on the figures ran his best race of the season to finish fourth. 

He didn’t reappear until May this season when eighth at Goodwood but that doesn’t begin to tell the story, as he was in a good position to challenge two furlongs out but was constantly denied a run up the rail - a horror story we’re all too familiar with at that track - and in the end, Richard Kingscote accepted the situation and allowed him to come home in his own time. He lost multiple places late as a result, and to me he shaped as if he retains all of his ability. A mile today is a new test for him but the way he finished off at Goodwood when winning over seven suggests he might even improve a bit for it. If the draw does beat him today, keep him in mind for something similar in the near future. 

Middle draws certainly didn’t hamper the chances of anyone on Day One, and Raafedd’s stall 14, smack in the middle, looks a very good place to work from. You couldn’t help but be impressed with the way he beat Accentuate at Newbury last time out, leading a full two furlongs out, then powering clear and geared down to win two lengths. The second did the form no harm when scoring by three lengths at Windsor last week, giving the form a very solid look, and the time figure for Raafedd’s win at Newbury was good too. 

This step up to a mile will surely suit him even better, and there has to be more to come from this son on Teofilo, you fancy. He rounds out my three against the field for the race. 

Three against the field: Parole d'Oro 11/1, Raafedd 11/1, Mr Chaplin 33/1

 

5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

TRENDS

A typical Hampton Court winner has yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners), has an official rating of 103+ (14/15), has raced 3-6 times in their career (14/15), came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15) and returned less than 8/1 (14/15). 13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).

3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).

In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2, and all 6 horses that last ran on the all-weather have been beaten.

RACE ANALYSIS:

A cracking looking race with the Aidan O'Brien French Derby 4th Trinity College heading the betting. With the first six home that day finishing in a heap, and with just a length and a half covering them all, it's hard to say what the form's worth. On his previous start Trinity College had been beaten by the now re-opposing Sea Scout at Epsom and, with that rival trading as a 66/1 outsider here, that's either a great price on him or a worthless piece of form. With Sea Scout subsequently finishing 8th in the Dante and 11th in the Derby I'm leaning towards the latter.

Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but failed to get home.

One horse who the latter definitely applies to is the 2000 Guineas 4th TORNADO ALERT who looks an absolutely massive price if over his Derby exertions from just 12 days ago. A staying on 4th at Newmarket over a mile, where he was just four lengths off Field of Gold, he was doing some good work late on and caught the eye of a lot of expert judges. His trainer was happy to talk up his chances for the Derby but, on the day, the 1m4f trip seemed to find him out and he patently didn't stay the last couple of furlongs.

He looks sure to appreciate the drop back to this intermediate 10f trip and he is one of the few runners in the field with genuine Group 1 form. He scores highly on the trends and his trainer won this in 2017 (stable have had just one runner in the race since) with a 113-rated horse that came here on the back of a 5th in the Derby. Top international jockey James McDonald is booked and there's so much to like about his chances I'll be shocked if he isn't involved at the finish.

SELECTION: TORNADO ALERT 1pt EW

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6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024.

10-year trends

Market

Just one win for horses from the top four of the betting. (English Oak last year when fav).

Six winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.

 

Age

4yos have won five of the last ten but they have provided 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (double other age groups combined).

7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 47 runners.

 

LTO Price

Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from 40% of the total runners.

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 runners so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last 10 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account,  so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Draw position in relation to stands rail PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5  stalls away 0.58 0.59
6 to 10  stalls away 0.61 0.64
11 to 15  stalls away 0.45 0.49
16 to 20  stalls away 0.47 0.48
21 or more stalls away 0.42 0.44

 

As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years.

 

Run Style

Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last ten years. The splits are:

 

Run Style PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group 0.49 0.49
Prominent 0.37 0.42
Mid Division 0.52 0.53
Held up 0.57 0.58

 

Based on these past figures, hold up horses have had the edge here, followed by mid pack runners. Indeed, eight of the last ten winners came from one of these two run styles.

Onto my favoured candidates:

Never So Brave – Now with Andrew Balding having formerly been with Sir Michael Stoute. He has had one run this season at Chester where he pulled far too hard and then had to be switched just over a furlong from home. Was the fastest finisher in the field that day running 0.23 secs quicker than anything else in the final furlong. Finished second but should have won. He has been raised 4lb which looks fair. Is drawn next to English Brave in 28 and has the assistance of the excellent Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Often races prominently but hopefully he will be ridden with a little more restraint.

English Oak – He won this race last year extremely impressively off a handicap mark of 99. He is one 1lb higher here. That performance was rated at 114 by Racing Post Ratings. Since then, he has failed to register a win in seven starts but his last run when sixth at Newbury showed some promise in a race that was slowly run. Last year, this race was run at a very strong pace and despite there being no genuine front runners in the field one would expect the same again here which will play to his strengths. Draw 27 should be OK.

No Retreat – He ran well at the start of the year in Dubai winning a decent handicap at Meydan in February before finishing a neck second to Silver Sword at the same track in an even better handicap three weeks later. He was down to run in the Victoria Cup last month but was withdrawn on the morning of the race. He then went to Haydock where he finished a decent third. No Retreat has been very consistent, always making the top three throughout his career. He races off 97 which is 3lbs higher than his Dubai second mentioned above and he looks overpriced at around 25/1. The draw in 1 though is a concern, unless earlier straight track races suggest otherwise. Has raced midfield / near the back in four of his last five runs so hopefully we see the same tactics employed here.

Gorak – At a big price Gorak is interesting. He ran in the race in 2023 and 2024 finishing 12th both times. However, he had valid excuses both times. In 2024 he was badly drawn but was a close up second on his part of the track. In 2023 he stuck to the stands rail and finished first of six in his group, but the centre of the course was strongly favoured that day. If he gets a run he will be drawn 10 which is still lower than ideal, but the likely price will compensate.

 

Conclusion

English Oak would win this easily if back to last year’s form but at 5/1 or thereabouts the price is just too tight IMO.

 

Suggestion

Never So Brave e/w at 8/1 and No Retreat e/w at 25/1

If Gorak runs has a small e/w saver at around 33/1

Several bookies are going six places (Bet 365, Betfred, Boyal Sports, Corals, Paddy Power to name but five), seven places with Sky Bet.

 

 

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips

And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.

Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...

1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Previewed by Matt Tombs.

The Triumph Hurdle changed complexion hugely with the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005. The average field size in the previous decade was 26. In the Fred Winter era that average has shrunk to 16, and just 13 in the last decade. All races evolve so we need to be careful when using trends that include renewals from a long time ago - for the Triumph it is often best to calculate trends starting in 2005. Incredibly, this year there are 18 slated to face the starter.

Possibly the biggest under-bet factor in juvenile hurdles more generally is that, being so young, these horses often develop more during the season than older novices – and they develop at different times. It’s not uncommon for juveniles to go backwards as they develop physically. With so many more of the juveniles now being jumps-bred rather than having had a long career on the flat nowadays I think that’s a factor that’s likely to keep increasing in importance.

It is therefore a division to be particularly open-minded about whether form will be repeated. In the Triumph that question is especially impacted by the quality of the trials. Britain has four Grade 2 and five Listed trials for the Triumph. These races often lack depth: this century all nine Triumph winners that contested a British Grade 2, won that Grade 2.

In Ireland it’s a different story. The programme is designed to funnel the best horses together and typically a lot run in the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival. Since it became a Grade 1 in 2010, it’s produced nine Triumph winners but only three were doing the double. Put another way, backing Grade 1 Spring winners in the Triumph would have lost you 30% of your betting bank, whereas backing the losers would have made you a 106% profit.

The Spring is run in early February and, given the ‘development factor’ I outlined above, another trend is to focus on recent Graded form more widely. You might think that Graded form (including Grade 1 winning form) in the novice and juvenile Grade 1s at the Festival would be so obvious as to be over-bet. But that’s often not the case – for example, if since 2005 in the Triumph you’d backed every unbeaten hurdler that had won a Graded hurdle, you’d have made a +23 (79% ROI) profit.

However, if you restricted that to unbeaten hurdlers who had won a Graded hurdle since the turn of the year the record improves to +28 (117% ROI) and would have identified the same eight winners.

East India Dock won the Grade 2 Finesse in great style in January. He likes a sound surface, is proven at the track and on form he arguably has enough in hand to suggest he should be odds-on here.

Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

A big field and should be lots of pace on. East India Dock tends to lead in his races but I don't think he needs to. Should track and get first run. Obviously, Willie has plenty of tactical options with his ELEVEN runners!

Triumph Hurdle Selection

East India Dock should be shorter on form, some of the horses around him owe their price more to reputation than track performances.

Suggestion: Back East India Dock to win at 2/1 or bigger.

Matt's Tix Pix: East India Dock on A, a couple of alternates on B

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2.00 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The formerly indecipherable County Hurdle has been rendered a coin flip between Messrs Mullins, W., and Skelton, D. in recent times. Indeed, in a race typically with 20+ runners, it's faintly bonkers that they've gobbled up nine of the most recent ten renewals. Willie also won it in 2010 and 2011 for good measure.

True, they tend to come mob-handed, but their winners have been 12/1, 33/1, 11/4, 11/2, 12/1, 33/1, 20/1, 8/1 and 25/1.

Five- and six-year-olds - in other words, seriously unexposed horses - have generally been the winning ticket, though they've also saddled three eight-year-old winners between them, at odds of 33/1, 12/1 and 20/1. So if not a young horse then demand a price, maybe.

Two of those older winners were very high class, and rated accordingly (146 and 158) while the younger horses - indeed all other winners bar Belfast Banter (129) since 2009 - were rated 134 to 141; and if you ignore subsequent Champion Hurdle winner State Man (extremely unlucky not to double up on Tuesday), that band narrows to 134-139. A feature of this race is that all winners since 2009 were patiently ridden, either in midfield or held up.

Of the Mullins gang this time, Daddy Long Legs is rated too high for a young horse, and Absurde has shown his hand too much, surely. But the other pair, Ethical Diamond and Kargese, are of clear interest. The former was five lengths behind the latter in last year's Spring Juvenile at DRF before completely failing to fire on heavy at Cheltenham next time. This season, after a promising effort on the flat at Royal Ascot, he ran down the field in a handicap at Christmas before bolting up in a very ordinary maiden hurdle. None of the 16 that followed him home there and ran since has won, from 19 collective attempts; and Ethical Diamond has been raised 12lb from his pre-race Irish mark (the Irish handicapper raised him only 6lb). He'll probably appreciate better ground but looks fairly harshly weighted all things considered, even if he is open to improvement.

Kargese is probably Willie's most obvious chance. She's never been out of the first two in nine career starts, four of them Grade 1's, two of them winning Grade 1's. Her form when within a length of Take No Chances has been well advertised by that one running third in the Mares' Hurdle, and it is possible the handicapper has underrated the ability of last year's juveniles. She has 141, the same mark as State Man won from and, while she is unlikely to be of his calibre, she may be a fair bit better than she's currently rated. She's versatile in terms of run style and will surely be waited with and, though it's a tough ask for a mare, Spirit Leader won back in 2003 from just a smallish number to have tried.

And what about Team Dan? Well it's only Valgrand for him, one shot wonder this year. This lad was impressive when racking up a hat-trick in early season, none more so than in a Grade 2 on good ground here. He was put in his place by Potters Charm when stepped up in trip, again around here, next time and has since got a five pound rebate from the handicapper for two non-descript efforts. He arrives here as a six-year-old novice on a perch of 134 and has been rested 77 days since, three of Skelton's four wins being rested 80, 97 and 124 days. Too easy? Maybe, maybe not.

With such a duopoly in the past decade, it's difficult to try to make a case for another though there are obviously plenty of respected operators in what is a smaller than usual field - just 16 declared. Principle among those shrewdies could be Joseph O'Brien who bids to win at back to back Festivals with Lark In The Morning, the 2024 Fred Winter champ. He's run acceptably twice since then, once for the UK handicapper, but still gets 2lb more weight than he had in that Haydock sighter. It's possible his best form is on softer turf than it's likely to be, but there's little doubt he'll have been optimally prepared.

County Hurdle Recent Winners

County Hurdle Pace Map

A smaller field this year and no obvious front runner. I doubt it'll be a tactical affair but it's difficult to call who'll make the pace.

County Hurdle Selection

I'm keeping this simple. I think Kargese is plenty short enough for all that I love her chance (and backed her ante post at bigger), so I'll suggest Valgrand to 'return to form'. Ethical Diamond is punitively handicapped but may still make the frame.

Suggestion: Back Valgrand at 8/1 or so.

Matt's Tix Pix: Mullins and Skelton on A

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2.40 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

This race has only been run for four years so there are no long term past trends to dig into. Instead, I have looked at the last ten years of mares only Class 1 chases between 2m3f and 2m6f. There have been 46 such races of which 35 have been won by either the favourite or the second favourite.  This suggests that this type of race tends not to have much strength in depth, and the four winners of this particular Festival race have all been 3/1 or shorter.

Another key trend to note in these races is that last time out (LTO) winners outperform those horses who didn’t win last time. LTO winners have won 25 races from 106 (23.6%) compared with 21 from 177 (11.9%) for those that didn’t win last time. There is a big differential between the placed results, too, with LTO winners placing 45% of the time, while LTO non-winners are down at 25%.

Horses that have previously won a Graded or Listed event hit a 24% strike rate compared with a 12% strike rate for those that have not.

Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have scored more than twice as often as those that were third or higher in the market. Not only that they have been better value with an A/E index of 0.96 compared to 0.81.

This year nine runners go to post with four rated over 150 and it will be a massive surprise if something rated lower wins this. Let’s look at the four main protagonists.

Willie Mullins has had two wins and two seconds in this race, and he runs two here which are first and second in the betting. Firstly, he has Dinoblue, runner up in the race last year. In that 2024 renewal jockey Mark Walsh may have been taken by surprise when the winner, Limerick Lace, kicked turning in and that could have cost her the race. Walsh will be keen not to allow any horse too much rope turning in this time around. A positive is that she ticks all the boxes from the trends shared above. A concern is that she generally races over 2 miles or 2 miles 1 furlong  and, despite going close last year, this trip might be right on her limit stamina wise. She is likely to go off a short-priced favourite.

The Mullins second string is Allegorie De Vassy. She was fourth in this last year, second in 2023 and those were her only two runs at the track. Despite those two decent efforts she tends to jump out to her right, and I think that has cost her in the past here. She does arrive at Cheltenham in good form having finished second at Naas last time getting to within a quarter of a length of Dinoblue. That was over a shorter two-mile trip.

Limerick Lace, from the Gavin Cromwell stable, comes here as defending champion, but she has been beaten a total of 101 lengths in her last two starts. If it rains, her chances improve considerably but with the likely going good to soft I am happy to take her on at her current price.

Cromwell also runs Brides Hill. She has been turned over when odds on favourite in her last two runs which tempers enthusiasm a little. However, according to the trainer this has always been her target, and she should prefer the ground more than her stablemate. Her price reflects her recent form, but at her best she would be bang there

Mares' Chase Recent Winners

*New race in 2021

Mares' Chase Pace Map

Willie again holds the cards with both of his pair likely to be prominent in what should be an even paced tempo.

Mares' Chase Selection

Dinoblue is the most likely winner but with her trading around Evens in a nine-runner field is tight. For me this looks a race to tackle each way with Brides Hill.

Suggestion: Back Brides Hill e/w at 6/1 or bigger

Matt's Tix Pix: Cromwell on A, Mullins on B

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3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

Ah, the Spuds Race. There's a knack to punting this race, which is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season. With only one winner returned a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013, we're going to be taking a swing. Naturally, such an approach can be feast or famine, so the faint-hearted might favour a different tack. Me? At this stage (Wednesday after racing), I'm in a massive hole on the week and don't plan to smash my way free, so it's the only course of action. OK, to the profile.

We're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. Stellar Story last year was an archetypal winner so let's look at his form profile going into that race and see if we can't reverse engineer it:

 

The form image shows most recent (Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham) at the top, oldest at the bottom. Starting at the bottom, we can see he was a good bumper horse - good enough to win two of his three in that sphere. We can also see he'd got plenty of experience, adding four hurdle starts prior to the Festival to that trio of NH Flat spins. Next, note how he won a big field maiden hurdle before running well in defeat in small field Graded races, including at Grade 1 level at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before any of those Rules runs, he'd won an Irish point to point.

Stellar Story was available at 33/1 when I backed him a couple of weeks before his Spuds win, and he was sent off at the same price on the day. He was the 11th choice of the betting public!

Here's a horse running in the race this year:

 

He, too, won an Irish point prior to his Rules debut; and he also won two bumpers, including the Cheltenham Bumper when held up in a field of 19. Sent hurdling this term, he won in a field of 25 - count 'em! - on first start before being outpaced in consecutive Grade 1's. The horse in question is Jasmin De Vaux, of course, and he's now a little shorter than ideal. I backed him at 33/1 (bully for me, I know) but I'm not going to tip him here at 8/1 for all that he fits the bill.

Another that I like is Wingmen, second when Jasmin was fourth last time, in the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 at DRF. He won a bumper, then a maiden hurdle - beating Turners fourth Forty Coats - before being outpaced over 2m1f here. In two starts since that December sighter, he's finished third in the Lawlor's Of Naas and second as mentioned. He handles quick ground and has a very good profile for this.

Front runners have a good recent record in the race, as do prominent types, so that's a further positive to his chance; and his trainer, Gordon Elliott, won the race with the aforementioned identikit winner, Stellar Story.

And there's one more from the Leopardstown G1 worthy of a mention, I think. Sounds Victorius was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, never nearer than at the finish. Second in a small field novice on hurdling debut, he then won a 12-runner maiden, leading then getting headed before outstaying a horse that looked very likely to win. Stepped straight up to Grade 1 level, he was again outpaced before plugging on. I'm not sure he's good enough for this - maybe he wants four miles rather than three - but he sort of fits the profile.

Fishery Lane was a six length fifth in last year's Champion Bumper and has looked fairly slow in his hurdle races to date. He's a bit of a flier on the basis that he's not run in Graded company over timber but that good effort at the Festival last year gives me some hope he can be competitive. He handles quicker ground and is surely in need of this extra road to slow the others down.

John McConnell went close in this in 2021 with Streets Of Doyen, and Intense Approach has a similar feel to that one: campaigned through the previous summer, a winning Cheltenham sighter at the October meeting before a midwinter break and one run prior to the Festival. Both had bundles of good ground form and were very experienced.

Of the Brits, Wendigo's Challow second to The New Lion could not have been better advertised, that one winning the Turners on Wednesday. The Challow has seen eight runs from its field since, five of them ending in victory; Wendigo won before and since that effort and could go well though I'm not convinced about his battling qualities (I could definitely be wrong on that).

There are a few classier types in the field, not least Jet Blue, Ballyhassen Paddy and the mare The Big Westerner; but there always are, and they usually get beat by the more streetwise contenders. At least that's the way to bet.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Just loads and loads of pace here. It'll be attritional I expect and you want one that can handle that sort of cauldron.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

Very tricky and taking two (or three) win only pokes in this big field feels like a good idea. Jasmin De Vaux and Wingmen don't really fit the long price bill though both have their chance; I couldn't put you off a win bet on either. But at daft prices and for small money, I'll risk the trio of Fishery Lane, Sounds Victorius and Intense Approach win only.

Suggestion: Avoid the short-priced classy horses and punt something at a price that might be better suited to this kind of bare knuckle cage fight. Each of 25/1 Fishery Lane, 25/1 Sounds Victorius and 16/1 Intense Approach has a bit of a squeak if things fall kindly.

Matt's Tix Pix: I'll be putting some big prices on A and hoping to get a result.

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4.00 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is almost impossible to oppose in the Gold Cup as he attempts to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning three Gold Cups in a row in the post-war era. Having won his third Irish Gold Cup last month, he has scared off stablemate Fact To File, the only horse who had looked a serious threat to his crown at Christmas when John Durkan form was reversed in the Savills Chase. Fact To File finished closer in the Irish Gold Cup but only because Townend plated rope-a-dope in front and turned the race into a sprint, impressing with how he quickened from the last to the line, while Fact To File was collared on the post for second by Grangeclare West.

Accidents can befall any horse, at home or on the racecourse, so there really is no such thing as a banker; but there is no strong reason to oppose the dual winner on what he’s shown this season, with his defeat at Punchestown in the John Durkan easy to forgive given he’s neither at his best over that trip or at that track, where his only defeats when completing over fences have come. Beaten by Fact To File there, he has shown the form to be misleading by slamming that talented rival twice at Leopardstown, brooking no argument as to which is the better horse.

With last year’s placed horses exiting stage left and Grey Dawning reportedly bypassing Cheltenham altogether, the Gold Cup looks the favourite’s to lose unless the ground dries back more than expected. In that scenario, Banbridge might be a danger to him having been confirmed for the race on the back of his King George win. I’ve liked Banbridge since watching him win the Martin Pipe in the company of Brendan Powell, who could not praise the horse highly enough, but while he proved his stamina for a sharp three miles of the King George, he still has the speed for two miles, and there are very few with that speed who can also stretch out the extra two and a half furlongs required up Cheltenham’s daunting hill.

I considered L’Homme Presse the horse most likely to follow Galopin des Champs home, but a minor setback has ruled him out. Corbett’s Cross showed at Ascot that he doesn’t jump well enough to win a race like this, and the supplemented Inothewayurthinkin is the better of the McManus hopes now that Fact To File has been rerouted.

In truth, Inothewayurthinkin is clearly not as good as Fact To File, having finished behind that rival in races won by Galopin des Champs on his last two starts. On the other hand, he’s also not capable of winning a Ryanair being a thorough stayer, and a Gold Cup weakened by withdrawals is a very realistic option for Gavin Cromwell’s 2024 Kim Muir winner. The Grand National is his main aim, but with questions over most of his rivals, he looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces in an attritional race.

Of course, a tactical affair will suit Banbridge better, but I suspect Paul Townend will be aware that Banbridge is the one who could spoil the party and will look to make this a test of stamina. That scenario is likely to see Banbridge look the main danger for much of the race, but Inothewayurthinkin will be staying on best after the last. While he’s unlikely to lay a glove on the favourite, he has every chance of out-slogging the classy Banbridge for second. At time of writing, seven of Gavin Cromwell’s 11 runners on the first two days have been placed or would have been placed but for a late fall, and his team is in better form than most at this meeting.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

There's a very good chance that Galopin Des Champs and Paul Townend keep it simple by bidding to make all. A few of his rivals need to try to get him out of his comfort zone so that's something to keep in mind, but the champ doesn't need to lead.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

Suggestion: Try a Galopin des Champs/Inothewayurthinkin Exacta

Matt's Tix Pix: Galopin banker

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4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

Previewed by Paul Jones.

The news in the last few days surrounds Willitgoahead who has been bought and sent to Gordon Elliott who would have had no time to do anything with him so don’t let that have any effect on how you judge his chance. He is now more or less joint-fav with Angels Dawn having impressed with his jumping when winning at Thurles after racing in last early. I wouldn’t fancy those tactics being pulled off on the New Course so maybe he’ll sit handier early.

On the figures ANGELS DAWN is the one to beat as she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance here unlike when she won the Kim Muir two years ago (and would have been placed last year behind a Gold Cup hope but for a late fall). She also didn’t have that allowance when winning a point to point at Dromahane, beating Ryehill by 6l who has since run all over Itsontheline at Naas, and they are the other pair in the top four in the betting. Ryehill won that race despite a bad mistake three out and his jumping could let him down in this sterner test.

Angels Dawn is ten now, and up until last year the previous nine winners were aged ten or eleven. Sam Curling’s mare also finished a close-up third in last season’s Thyestes so competitive, big-field chases bring the very best out of her and I’m hoping that, after Sine Nomine last year, mares can bag back-to-back wins.

Runner-up for the last two seasons, Its On The Line is hard work but usually keeps pulling it out which is what made his Naas run, where he found little in the home straight, all the more disappointing. I think he needs to run himself into form/fitness as his very best efforts have been after Cheltenham but he is only reaching his prime now as he was just aged six and seven when runner-up for the last two runnings. Maybe Emmet Mullins had left more to work on at Naas than he is giving away (he had a hard race in that prep last year which may have taken an edge off him for Cheltenham?) but it was disconcerting to hear rumours that JP McManus, owner of Its On The Line, was trying to buy Willitgoahead: that may suggest a lack of confidence if the whispers are accurate.

Behind the Irish-trained top four in the market come four home hopes and the Brits have won three of the last four renewals. I can’t see Allmankind staying, and Music Drive has yet to run in a hunter chase (just one of those has won since 1993), so the other pair interest me more. Paul Nicholls has trained four Festival Hunter Chase winners so Shearer is respected, though I wonder if the Aintree Foxhunters’ might suit him better as he typically races over shorter trips and easier tracks.

So Fairly Famous appeals most of the home team. He beat the 2023 winner of this race, Premier Magic, by 4½l on Cheltenham’s Hunter Chase night back in early May (also won the same race by 15l the previous season) and has since won both his point to points this winter and clearly goes very well for Gina Andrews.

Rocky’s Howya was third two years ago but missed last season, which I know full well as was looking out for him as my horse for the 2024 version. He would have been closer but for meeting interference on the run-in behind Premier Magic and Its On The Line in 2023, so he also interests me now that he is back and won a point last time out.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map

The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

Suggestion: Back 4/1 Angels Dawn to win, and/or consider 20/1 Fairly Famous and 18/1 Rocky's Howya each way.

Matt's Tix Pix: Angels Dawn and a few others on A, some bigger prices on B

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5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

Previewed by David Massey.

A race that seemingly revolves around one horse this year, Kopek De Mee. 

What we know about him; this will be his first start on British soil for Willie Mullins, having raced five times over hurdles in France for his previous yard and, as such, the handicapper hasn’t had a lot to go on, giving him his French mark of 136 (which he has to do, by the way). 

It isn’t as if his French form means he’s thrown in here, though. Timeform, who can on occasions rave about these marks given to Willie’s from France, have him only fifth best, admittedly with a “p”, so progress is likely. Neither have we seen him for 310 days, and all his form so far has been on deep ground. We’ve seen good things beaten in this before; at 5-2 you can leave me out, thanks very much. 

There’s one in here I’ve been keen on since his Warwick run at the start of February and those of you that have been lucky/unlucky enough to watch or listen to the podcasts I’ve been doing for a rival publication (sorry Matt) will know that No Ordinary Joe is the horse that caught my, and others', eyes that day.

No Ordinary Joe was seventh in the Martin Pipe last year when Nicky was having his week from hell, and this time around he’s been spared a hard campaign, racing just the three times this season but it was a much better effort at Warwick last time, despite not looking entirely fit.

He was close enough two out to throw down a challenge but Callum Pritchard looked after him a bit after the last, and despite only being beaten two lengths, and he looked like there was a bit left in the tank. 

The handicapper left him alone for that, meaning a mark of 138 will be 2lb lower than last year, and although Pritchard has been claimed by Ben Pauling to ride No Questions Asked, Freddie Gingell, among the winners elsewhere this week, is a most able deputy. 

Wodhooh is an in-form mare that’s unbeaten in six hurdles starts, and her defeat of Joyeuse and Take No Chances last time out is solid form, but the market has her well found. In some ways, I’d not be shocked if she went off favourite, given her form looks more solid than Kopek De Mee’s, but at the time of writing Gordon Elliott is not having the best of Festival weeks, with too many of his fading out of contention for comfort. That may change on Thursday or earlier on Friday but she only makes limited appeal.

At 33-1 I’ll also have a little bit on Electric Mason as the back-up selection. A good looker, he’s twice come up against The New Lion, beaten 4½ lengths on the first occasion and then nine lengths by him in the Challow. Needless to say, that form looks all the better after The New Lion’s win in the Turners earlier in the week, and a mark of 132 seems more than fair. The ground should suit and quotes of 25-1 and bigger are worth a fiver of your cash. 

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

Another big field and some relatively inexperienced riders, so this ought to be quickly run from the start. It's been won by some really classy future chasers in the pase - see the list above - and it will be fascinating to see which Grade 1 horse(s) reveal themselves here.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

Suggestion: Back No Ordinary Joe at 12/1 and/or Electric Mason at 33/1.

 

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And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2025. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.

Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham, Matt Tombs and Paul Jones are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.

Be lucky.

Matt