Tag Archive for: Horses for Course

Racing Insights, Friday 09/08/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for this Friday, but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Brighton
  • 3.50 Musselburgh
  • 4.50 Musselburgh
  • 6.00 Newmarket
  • 8.10 Tipperary
  • 8.25 Wexford

...from which, we'll head North of the Border for the 3.50 Musselburgh, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good to firm ground...

Gressington comes here on the back of a win over 7½f at Beverley for his second success in a six-race career to date and he has also made the frame in two of his four defeats. None of his rivals won last time out, but On A Session (3rd), Judgment Call (2nd) and Dain Ma Nut In (3rd) all made the frame, whilst Adduction, Media Shooter and Moreginplease have all won one of their last seven races.

On A Session, Judgment Call and Ugo Gregory, however, are on losing runs of 18, 8 and 11 races respectively, whilst handicap debutant Dain Ma Nut In is a five-race maiden. Top-weight Abduction and Media Shooter (first-time cheekpieces today) both drop down two classes, but bottom weight Moreginplease is up two levels and Judgment Call also steps up a class. Most of the field have raced in the last 4 to 18 days, but the layoffs of Abduction (27 days) and Dain Ma Nut In (45 days) really shouldn't affect their own performances.

Half of this field (Gressington, Media Shooter, Dain Ma Nut In and Moreginplease) are still only 3 yrs old, so they get a useful 6lbs weight allowance today, but three of them (Dain Ma Nut In and Moreginplease) have yet to win over today's trip, whilst On A Session and Judgment Call have both won over course and distance; the latter doing so in this very race last year off a mark 3lbs lower than today's. Both course wins are shown below on Instant Expert...

...which is a bit of a mixed bag if truth be told. In-form Gressington is probably the one to beat, but track wins aside Judgment Call also has decent numbers. Class 4 wins have also been hard to come by of late for Ugo Gregory, whilst Abduction is winless after racing here seven times in the last two years. The trip doesn't appear to have been particularly kind towards On A Session and Ugo Gregory and these two look very weak from a win perspective and the latter has poor place stats too...

...so I think I'm done with him as a contender. Mind you, the draw stats for past races here do him few favours either...

...with stalls 1 to 5 probably the place to be, whilst from a pace perspective those seventy races above have been dominated by front-runners, although the prominent chasers have done pretty well too...

So, if any of Moreginplease, Judgement Call, Media Shooter, Dain Ma Nut In and Gressington find themselves in the front half of the pack, then they could well be the ones who make the frame or ultimately go on to win. If we then look at how they've approached their last few races...

...we see that three of them fit this particular bill.

Summary

From pace/draw, the three that tick the boxes are Dain Ma Nut In, Judgement Call and Gressington would be the ones to focus upon, but only Gressington comes here in any real form, so almost by default he's the pick here. Sadly he was a 9/4 shot at 6.15pm on Thursday, but he'd be my most likely winner here.

Dain Ma Nut In and Judgement Call were both available at 15/2 and that's borderline E/W territory and I think both stand a good chance of making the frame here based on the evidence above.

Racing Insights, Friday 24/05/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Bath
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 4.10 Goodwood
  • 7.00 Hereford
  • 7.35 Downpatrick

And seeing as the 'free' list has a Listed race, we'll cover that one. It's the 3.35 Goodwood, an 8-runner (hopefully!), 1m2f flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground and here's the lineup...

Sole LTO winner Isle of Jura has won his last three (2 x Listed and 1 x Gr1) as part of an excellent 4 from 5 streak in Bahrain taking his total recent form to six wins and a runner-up finish from eight starts, although he is up two classes from his last UK run if not overall. Royal Rhyme is two from three and three from five, Mujtaba won three starts ago and Passion and Glory has lost three in a row after a run of five successive wins and six wins from seven. Elegancia is two from four, Empress Wu won on debut, but is 0 from 4 since and both Claymore and Sea of Roses are on losing streaks of eight races.

Mujtaba wears a tongue tie today for the first time, the afore-mentioned Isle of Jura is our only class mover and if this was based on handicap marks, Mujtaba would be best off at the weights by 2lbs over Royal Rhyme and 3lbs over Isle of Jura; Elegancia is easily the worst off, rated at just 91. Many of these might not quite be at their best today, as only Sea of Roses, Mujtaba and Claymore have raced on the last three to five weeks or so. Isle of Jura, Elegancia, Empress Wu, Royal Rhyme and Passion and Glory all return from breaks of 77, 195, 199, 216 and 580 days respectively and I do wonder about Passion and Glory after so long away from the track.

Isle of Jura and Sea of Roses have yet to win at this trip, whilst only Royal Rhyme (course and distance) and Passion and Glory (1m4f) have won at Goodwood before...

On the face of things, Royal Rhyme and Passion and Glory look the best suited by today's expected race conditions, but it's still a big ask of the latter after 19 months out of action. Clymore and Empress Wu lack wins under these circumstances, but Mujtaba is 3 from 7 on the going and has good place stats at class/distance.

In previous past similar races, stall 1 (Sea of Roses here) has done really well...

...with stalls 5 to 7 (Royal Rhyme, Mujtaba, Claymore) also having good win records and the same stalls have topped the averages from a place perspective across 50+ races that have tended to be dominated by horses who like to be at the head of the pack...

...which based on this field's last few runs is another positive for both Passion and Glory and Royal Rhyme...

...whilst it's Isle of Jura, Royal Rhyme and Mujtaba who seem best off on our pace/draw heatmap.

Summary

One horse's name has popped up in every bit of analysis I've done, so it's no surprise that Royal Rhyme was the 5/4 favourite at 7pm on Thursday evening. Isle of Jura and Mujtaba were the nest two in the market and probably deservedly so, even if not at E/W backable odds for me (they were 4/1 and 11/2), but based on past efforts and taking fitness on trust, there might just be a bit of validity for small 20/1 E/W punts on Claymore and/or Passion and Glory.

That said, despite it being a decent standard of race, it's not one I'll be digging deep for financially!

Racing Insights, Friday 16/02/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce a trio of tapeta tempters...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.10 Fakenham
  • 4.57 Dundalk
  • 5.02 Kelso
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Wolverhampton

...and it makes perfect sense to marry up the H4C report with the 'free' race list and have a look at one of the day's highest rated and second most valuable races, as Civil Law tackles nine rivals in the 6.45 Wolverhampton, a Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

None of these managed to win last time out, but both featured horse Civil Law and Wadacre Gomez were runners-up after winning their penultimate outing and the latter has now won two of his last four, as has the lightly-raced Polling Day with only Al Rufaa from the rest of the field with a win inside their recent form line. I wouldn't be surprised if this quartet produced the winner.

Sadly for Wadacre Gomez, he's up a level here, as is Kojin despite seven defeats on the bounce where he hasn't beaten many runners home. Aikhal, Pleasant Man, Forca Timao and Southern Voyage all move the opposite direction taking a drop down from Class 2, where only Forca Timao made the frame.

Today will be the just second time in a handicap for both Polling Day and Duc de Morny, who will debut in cheekpieces today in a field short on course/distance form. Bottom weight Kojin won over this trip at Clonmel last September and Al Rufaa won here at Wolverhampton over 1f shorter (1m½f) three starts ago but is a class and 6lbs higher here. Only featured runner Civil Law has won over course and distance finishing 12117412 in his eight attempts to go with his 1 from 1 record here over 1m½f and he's understandably the standout from Instant Expert...

Kojin has no recent A/W form and was well beaten on his sole start at Dundalk back in October 2021. The above is fairly self-explanatory, of course with many of these having little relevant data and even the 5yr form doesn't give us much more to work with...

...although it does show Polling Day's entire career and further boost's Civil Law's numbers, whilst recent place form...

...further reiterates the strength of both Civil Law and Washacre Gomez who arrive here in good form, although they'll find themselves starting a fair way apart in stalls 1 and 9 of 10, although the draw hasn't seemed to have been a massive influence in the 220+ similar races here since 2018...

...which keeps both in the hunt, if nothing else. The pace stats for those races above suggests that hold-up horses have struggled to win/place, but anything further forward than a hold-up position has been fruitful...

...and if recent performances are anything to go by, Wadacre Gomez might well be able to control this race from the front...

...and from his high draw, setting the pace would appear to be his best chance of winning this...

Summary

Looks like a toss-up between Wadacre Gomez and Civil Law, based on form and the data above with the only other recent winner Al Rufaa the best of the rest. I'm running a little late this evening, so didn't see the market until just now (6.55pm) and this hasn't really surprised me...

...although I think I prefer Wadacre Gomez to win this one. He's down a pound after a 1.5 length defeat over course and distance, whilst Civil Law is up 2lbs from his last run on Boxing Day. He's also lost his 3lb claimer, but jockey Danny Tudhope could make some of that back.

Racing Insights, Friday 04/08/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just two qualifiers...

...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 4.45 Goodwood
  • 5.10 Bangor
  • 6.20 Newmarket
  • 7.40 Galway
  • 8.05 Bath

Rhoscolyn from the H4C report goes in the first of our free races, but 20-runner affairs don't float my boat, so I'll swerve that one in favour of taking a look at a competitive looking sprint of reasonable quality up in Scotland, as I focus on the 8.20 Musselburgh, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

As ever, I approach a race thinking of the words my old maths teacher used to tell me when faced with a tricky problem ie look at the information you've already got in front of you. To do this I work my way across the racecard from left to right, ignoring the draw (for now!), starting with...

FORM : Never Dark won last time out and has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Only Spoofing won this race last years and was a runner-up when last seen, but along with Looking For Lynda and Resilience, this trio are winless in at least six races (12, 7 and 10 runs to be precise)

CLASS : Only Spoofing and Jordan Electrics are the only two not moving in class today, as the top three in the weights (Ready Freddie Go, Look Out Louis & Looking For Lynda) all drop in from Class 2, whilst three others (Runninwild, Princess Karine and bottom weight Resilience) all step up from Class 4. LTO winner Never Dark actually raced at Class 5 and is up two grades here.

ANYTHING NEW/DIFFERENT : Looking For Lynda wears cheekpieces for the first time and Look Out Louis makes a second appearance sind having wind surgery.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All nine have won at least once over today's trip with only Look Out Louis, Runninwild and Resilience yet to score over this course and distance. Mind you, only Resilience of the three has been here before, making the frame once in two defeats.

LAST RAN : The majority of the field should have no fitness issues with half a dozen of them having raced in the last 18-35 days, but Resilience is turned back out just six days after a really poor run in a lower grade at York. Runninwild has had a nine-week break since struggling at Catterick, whilst our sole LTO winner never Dark not only steps up two classes, he also returns from 7 months off and hasn't raced on turf for almost ten months!

WEIGHT : The handicapper rates top weight Ready Freddie Go as being some 19lbs better than bottom weight Resiliance and our sole 3 year old, Looking For Lynda, gets a 3lb weight allowance. Only Spoofing is rated 7lbs lower than when winning this race last year under today's jockey.

My next port of call is a check of the runners' past performances under similar conditions to this contest and I do this via INSTANT EXPERT...

And there's plenty to go at here too, so let's start with what I don't like! Never Dark looks weak at going/trip and is only 1 from 16 over 5f on ground with the word 'good' in the description. Only Spoofing has a poor record at Class 3, but did win this race last year and has won at a higher grade than this and I'm not a fan of Jordan Electrics' numbers here at Musselburgh or on good ground.

Runninwild will like the ground, but his best form is over 6f. Only Spoofing has seven wins on good ground and is 2 from 3 on this track and is 7lbs lower than last year's win. Ready Freddie Go's numbers aren't spectacular, but a line of amber shows potential and consistency.

I ignore the DRAW when going through the racecard, as I prefer to look at it at this point and previous races here over this trip haven't really shown much of a draw bias, according to our DRAW ANALYSER...

That's not a huge surprise, though, as there really shouldn't be any particular advantage in a straight dash, where the emphasis is surely on speed and tactics and if we then check our PACE ANALYSER to see how those races above have been won, again there are few surprises to be had...

So, we're more concerned about getting a prominent runner or a leader for place purposes with those setting the pace having the best win record. And we go about this by looking at how our runners have approached their most recent contests and if they run how they have done in these races...

...you'd much rather be with Ready Freddie Go and Only Spoofing above the likes of Jordan Electrics, who looks out of his depth here anyway.

Summary

Ready Freddie Go was third in this grade three starts ago, then won at Class 4 before another third placed finsh last time out. That was at Class 2 and he's down in class off the same mark today. His Instant Expert numbers showed that he'll like the conditions here and he's got the right pace profile for this contest, so I like his chances here.

He's drawn in 8 of 9 with only Only Spoofing outside of him. Only Spoofing won this race last year, of course and is 7lbs better off this time around, he has a similar pace profile to Ready Freddie Go, loves good ground and has a good record on this track. He looked ready to strike again when just a nose behind an 11/10 favourite at Bellewstown last time out and must enter calculations here.

And for me, the race is between this pair and I've very little between them to be honest. As 5/1 third fav here, Ready Freddie Go might offer a little more value with Only Spoofing being the 9/4 favourite (prices from Hils at 4.45pm : the only book open)

As for a placer or E/W bet, there's not much jumping out at me on the prices quoted, but outsider Resilience might be better than his current 14/1 ticket. If he runs like he did at York last Saturday, you'd be burning your money, but he raced here four weeks ago over course and distance and was only headed late on, finishing in second, just half a length behind the 5/2 favourite who has since made the frame at both Class 3 and Class 2. You don't know what you're going to get from Resilience, but that's probably why he's 8th fav of 9!