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Racing Insights, 2nd July 2021

Not only does the Horses for Courses (H4C) report do exactly what you'd expect, it's also our free feature on a Friday along with the following 'races of the day', which are also free to all readers...

  • 1.55 Newton Abbot
  • 3.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.05 Sandown
  • 6.30 Bellewstown
  • 8.15 Wexford
  • 8.55 Beverley

Now, my fairly strict criteria for the Horses for Courses (H4C) report have only generated a couple of potential bets for Friday, so I thought we'd have a look at them here...

So we start at Doncaster for the 2.45 race...

Jawwaal's record here reads 32101 and this 6yr old gelding was a winner here over course and distance last time out, 19 days ago. As you'll see shortly, he's got a good record on good to firm and also over today's trip, whilst his five runs here at Doncaster before today include 2 wins and a place from 3 on Good to Firm and 2 wins from 2 over this minimum 5f course and distance, whilst more generally in Flat handicaps, he is...

That win last time out was a career-best off a mark of 92 and he's now a class and 2lbs higher here, but certainly has favourable race conditions. He's drawn in stall 2, which has actually proved to be the best stall to come from in similar recent contests...

...which is now starting to tick a lot of boxes. Strangely for such a short contest, these races here at Doncaster have favoured the hold-up horse, with 7 of the above 11 races going that way...

...and this is a potential fly in the ointment for Jawaal, based on his last four runs, as he seems to be a solid mid-division runner, leading to him being caught between two stools on the pace/draw heatmap...

However, all is not lost, because if we look at the overall field in draw order (I've omitted names etc, as it's not a Free race)...

...then many the field might well be adopting different tactics to usual. After all, there'll have to be a leader from somewhere. Jawaal is basically 6th of 7 on pace and that might actually make him look like a hold up horse here!

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After that race, our focus moves a mere 40 miles North East to the 6.23 Beverley...

Kodimoor's record here at Beverley currently reads 81313 and the last of those was this 8yr old gelding's last outing 17 days ago, when he was a decent 3rd of 17 over 1m½f, but he now drops back to 7½f, where he is 2 from 2 over course and distance. All five track runs have been at this Class 6 level and he has one win and one place from two good to firm runs. His overall flat handicap record isn't as good away from this track, if truth be told...

...but he really does like it here, fairly close to home.  His last win was four starts ago on his penultimate visit to Beverley, when scoring over course and distance off a mark of 46, but ran off 50 when 3rd and beaten by three lengths LTO. Useful 5lb claimer Tyler Heard now jumps into the saddle, effectively bringing him back lower than that last win, so he should have every chance based on course/distance form and at the weights.

The draw, however, hasn't been too kind to him, as stall 5 hasn't fared too well in recent similar races...

but he does cope well with big fields here at Beverley and despite being drawn 8 of 14 here LTO, still made the frame, so I wouldn't rule him out of contention just yet. The pace stats here at Beverley are pretty clear...

...the further forward you can race, the better. 7½f on quick ground here soon passes and the race can be gone before you know it, so you really need to get out sharpish. Thankfully, as shown below, Kodimoor's no slouch and does like to get on with it...

...which is also pretty encouraging.

Summary

Two runners both with conditions set to suit them perfectly. Jawaal is well drawn, Kodimoor isn't, but he's better suited by the pace/draw make-up of the race than Jawaal would appear to be. So both look to have plenty in their favour without it all being perfect, so they could both potentially win.

So do I back both? To win, probably. I've Jawaal as my favoured horse in his race, but 14 runners is plenty at Beverley and I just feel there might be a couple better than Kodimoor for this one, but price dependent, there might still be something there for us.

No real surprise for me to see Jawaal installed as the 10/3 favourite as of 4.25pm and I think that's a fair price. He beat Mountain Peak over C&D LTO and I'd expect him to maintain the advantage, but MP would be the biggest danger for me.

As for Doncaster, I think the likes of Absolute Dream (11/1) and Motawaazy (4/1) are better here and Etikaal at 12/1 might also be a danger to Kodimoor, who currently trades at 8/1. That's a little on the skinny side for an E/W bet, but if I/you can get that price for 4 or more places, then that could work for us, as could small E/W tickles on Absolute dream and even Etikaal!