Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the H4C report...
...have yielded just two qualifiers...
...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...
- 3.00 Goodwood
- 4.45 Goodwood
- 5.10 Bangor
- 6.20 Newmarket
- 7.40 Galway
- 8.05 Bath
Rhoscolyn from the H4C report goes in the first of our free races, but 20-runner affairs don't float my boat, so I'll swerve that one in favour of taking a look at a competitive looking sprint of reasonable quality up in Scotland, as I focus on the 8.20 Musselburgh, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...
As ever, I approach a race thinking of the words my old maths teacher used to tell me when faced with a tricky problem ie look at the information you've already got in front of you. To do this I work my way across the racecard from left to right, ignoring the draw (for now!), starting with...
FORM : Never Dark won last time out and has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Only Spoofing won this race last years and was a runner-up when last seen, but along with Looking For Lynda and Resilience, this trio are winless in at least six races (12, 7 and 10 runs to be precise)
CLASS : Only Spoofing and Jordan Electrics are the only two not moving in class today, as the top three in the weights (Ready Freddie Go, Look Out Louis & Looking For Lynda) all drop in from Class 2, whilst three others (Runninwild, Princess Karine and bottom weight Resilience) all step up from Class 4. LTO winner Never Dark actually raced at Class 5 and is up two grades here.
ANYTHING NEW/DIFFERENT : Looking For Lynda wears cheekpieces for the first time and Look Out Louis makes a second appearance sind having wind surgery.
COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All nine have won at least once over today's trip with only Look Out Louis, Runninwild and Resilience yet to score over this course and distance. Mind you, only Resilience of the three has been here before, making the frame once in two defeats.
LAST RAN : The majority of the field should have no fitness issues with half a dozen of them having raced in the last 18-35 days, but Resilience is turned back out just six days after a really poor run in a lower grade at York. Runninwild has had a nine-week break since struggling at Catterick, whilst our sole LTO winner never Dark not only steps up two classes, he also returns from 7 months off and hasn't raced on turf for almost ten months!
WEIGHT : The handicapper rates top weight Ready Freddie Go as being some 19lbs better than bottom weight Resiliance and our sole 3 year old, Looking For Lynda, gets a 3lb weight allowance. Only Spoofing is rated 7lbs lower than when winning this race last year under today's jockey.
My next port of call is a check of the runners' past performances under similar conditions to this contest and I do this via INSTANT EXPERT...
And there's plenty to go at here too, so let's start with what I don't like! Never Dark looks weak at going/trip and is only 1 from 16 over 5f on ground with the word 'good' in the description. Only Spoofing has a poor record at Class 3, but did win this race last year and has won at a higher grade than this and I'm not a fan of Jordan Electrics' numbers here at Musselburgh or on good ground.
Runninwild will like the ground, but his best form is over 6f. Only Spoofing has seven wins on good ground and is 2 from 3 on this track and is 7lbs lower than last year's win. Ready Freddie Go's numbers aren't spectacular, but a line of amber shows potential and consistency.
I ignore the DRAW when going through the racecard, as I prefer to look at it at this point and previous races here over this trip haven't really shown much of a draw bias, according to our DRAW ANALYSER...
That's not a huge surprise, though, as there really shouldn't be any particular advantage in a straight dash, where the emphasis is surely on speed and tactics and if we then check our PACE ANALYSER to see how those races above have been won, again there are few surprises to be had...
So, we're more concerned about getting a prominent runner or a leader for place purposes with those setting the pace having the best win record. And we go about this by looking at how our runners have approached their most recent contests and if they run how they have done in these races...
...you'd much rather be with Ready Freddie Go and Only Spoofing above the likes of Jordan Electrics, who looks out of his depth here anyway.
Summary
Ready Freddie Go was third in this grade three starts ago, then won at Class 4 before another third placed finsh last time out. That was at Class 2 and he's down in class off the same mark today. His Instant Expert numbers showed that he'll like the conditions here and he's got the right pace profile for this contest, so I like his chances here.
He's drawn in 8 of 9 with only Only Spoofing outside of him. Only Spoofing won this race last year, of course and is 7lbs better off this time around, he has a similar pace profile to Ready Freddie Go, loves good ground and has a good record on this track. He looked ready to strike again when just a nose behind an 11/10 favourite at Bellewstown last time out and must enter calculations here.
And for me, the race is between this pair and I've very little between them to be honest. As 5/1 third fav here, Ready Freddie Go might offer a little more value with Only Spoofing being the 9/4 favourite (prices from Hils at 4.45pm : the only book open)
As for a placer or E/W bet, there's not much jumping out at me on the prices quoted, but outsider Resilience might be better than his current 14/1 ticket. If he runs like he did at York last Saturday, you'd be burning your money, but he raced here four weeks ago over course and distance and was only headed late on, finishing in second, just half a length behind the 5/2 favourite who has since made the frame at both Class 3 and Class 2. You don't know what you're going to get from Resilience, but that's probably why he's 8th fav of 9!
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
