Racing Insights, Friday 09/08/24

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for this Friday, but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

• 3.00 Brighton
• 3.50 Musselburgh
• 4.50 Musselburgh
• 6.00 Newmarket
• 8.10 Tipperary
• 8.25 Wexford

...from which, we'll head North of the Border for the 3.50 Musselburgh, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good to firm ground...

Gressington comes here on the back of a win over 7½f at Beverley for his second success in a six-race career to date and he has also made the frame in two of his four defeats. None of his rivals won last time out, but On A Session (3rd), Judgment Call (2nd) and Dain Ma Nut In (3rd) all made the frame, whilst Adduction, Media Shooter and Moreginplease have all won one of their last seven races.

On A Session, Judgment Call and Ugo Gregory, however, are on losing runs of 18, 8 and 11 races respectively, whilst handicap debutant Dain Ma Nut In is a five-race maiden. Top-weight Abduction and Media Shooter (first-time cheekpieces today) both drop down two classes, but bottom weight Moreginplease is up two levels and Judgment Call also steps up a class. Most of the field have raced in the last 4 to 18 days, but the layoffs of Abduction (27 days) and Dain Ma Nut In (45 days) really shouldn't affect their own performances.

Half of this field (Gressington, Media Shooter, Dain Ma Nut In and Moreginplease) are still only 3 yrs old, so they get a useful 6lbs weight allowance today, but three of them (Dain Ma Nut In and Moreginplease) have yet to win over today's trip, whilst On A Session and Judgment Call have both won over course and distance; the latter doing so in this very race last year off a mark 3lbs lower than today's. Both course wins are shown below on Instant Expert...

...which is a bit of a mixed bag if truth be told. In-form Gressington is probably the one to beat, but track wins aside Judgment Call also has decent numbers. Class 4 wins have also been hard to come by of late for Ugo Gregory, whilst Abduction is winless after racing here seven times in the last two years. The trip doesn't appear to have been particularly kind towards On A Session and Ugo Gregory and these two look very weak from a win perspective and the latter has poor place stats too...

...so I think I'm done with him as a contender. Mind you, the draw stats for past races here do him few favours either...

...with stalls 1 to 5 probably the place to be, whilst from a pace perspective those seventy races above have been dominated by front-runners, although the prominent chasers have done pretty well too...

So, if any of Moreginplease, Judgement Call, Media Shooter, Dain Ma Nut In and Gressington find themselves in the front half of the pack, then they could well be the ones who make the frame or ultimately go on to win. If we then look at how they've approached their last few races...

...we see that three of them fit this particular bill.

Summary

From pace/draw, the three that tick the boxes are Dain Ma Nut In, Judgement Call and Gressington would be the ones to focus upon, but only Gressington comes here in any real form, so almost by default he's the pick here. Sadly he was a 9/4 shot at 6.15pm on Thursday, but he'd be my most likely winner here.

Dain Ma Nut In and Judgement Call were both available at 15/2 and that's borderline E/W territory and I think both stand a good chance of making the frame here based on the evidence above.

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