Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 16/02/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

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...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce a trio of tapeta tempters...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.10 Fakenham
  • 4.57 Dundalk
  • 5.02 Kelso
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Wolverhampton

...and it makes perfect sense to marry up the H4C report with the 'free' race list and have a look at one of the day's highest rated and second most valuable races, as Civil Law tackles nine rivals in the 6.45 Wolverhampton, a Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

None of these managed to win last time out, but both featured horse Civil Law and Wadacre Gomez were runners-up after winning their penultimate outing and the latter has now won two of his last four, as has the lightly-raced Polling Day with only Al Rufaa from the rest of the field with a win inside their recent form line. I wouldn't be surprised if this quartet produced the winner.

Sadly for Wadacre Gomez, he's up a level here, as is Kojin despite seven defeats on the bounce where he hasn't beaten many runners home. Aikhal, Pleasant Man, Forca Timao and Southern Voyage all move the opposite direction taking a drop down from Class 2, where only Forca Timao made the frame.

Today will be the just second time in a handicap for both Polling Day and Duc de Morny, who will debut in cheekpieces today in a field short on course/distance form. Bottom weight Kojin won over this trip at Clonmel last September and Al Rufaa won here at Wolverhampton over 1f shorter (1m½f) three starts ago but is a class and 6lbs higher here. Only featured runner Civil Law has won over course and distance finishing 12117412 in his eight attempts to go with his 1 from 1 record here over 1m½f and he's understandably the standout from Instant Expert...

Kojin has no recent A/W form and was well beaten on his sole start at Dundalk back in October 2021. The above is fairly self-explanatory, of course with many of these having little relevant data and even the 5yr form doesn't give us much more to work with...

...although it does show Polling Day's entire career and further boost's Civil Law's numbers, whilst recent place form...

...further reiterates the strength of both Civil Law and Washacre Gomez who arrive here in good form, although they'll find themselves starting a fair way apart in stalls 1 and 9 of 10, although the draw hasn't seemed to have been a massive influence in the 220+ similar races here since 2018...

...which keeps both in the hunt, if nothing else. The pace stats for those races above suggests that hold-up horses have struggled to win/place, but anything further forward than a hold-up position has been fruitful...

...and if recent performances are anything to go by, Wadacre Gomez might well be able to control this race from the front...

...and from his high draw, setting the pace would appear to be his best chance of winning this...

Summary

Looks like a toss-up between Wadacre Gomez and Civil Law, based on form and the data above with the only other recent winner Al Rufaa the best of the rest. I'm running a little late this evening, so didn't see the market until just now (6.55pm) and this hasn't really surprised me...

...although I think I prefer Wadacre Gomez to win this one. He's down a pound after a 1.5 length defeat over course and distance, whilst Civil Law is up 2lbs from his last run on Boxing Day. He's also lost his 3lb claimer, but jockey Danny Tudhope could make some of that back.

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