Tag Archive for: hugo palmer

Michael Owen on the scoresheet with It Ain’t Two

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Michael Owen is dreaming of bigger days having seen his homebred It Ain’t Two get on the scoresheet in the bet365 EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket.

Trained by Hugo Palmer, her half-brother Balon D’Or hit the target at the first attempt last season, but odds of 18-1 perhaps told the true tale of expectation as the daughter of Calyx showed plenty of ability in the five-furlong event.

Balon D’Or would go on to run at the former England international’s beloved Chester May Festival and It Ain’t Two could now follow suit.

Michael Owen cut a delighted figure at Newmarket
Michael Owen cut a delighted figure at Newmarket (Bradley Collyer/PA)

Owen said: “Her brother won first time out at this time last year and we’ve obviously come to a trickier place in terms of quality, but you would have to be delighted with that, it’s a nice surprise.

“Lots of horses were fancied before the race, so we weren’t that confident, just because of what people were saying about theirs, but she’s a homebred filly and you have to start thinking of black type now. It will be interesting and a nice surprise and it will have us thinking in a different way.

“Normally with one of mine, I’m thinking maiden, Lily Agnes and Ascot. That’s the dream passage but we’ll see and, as she is a homebred and I have the mare at home, we may have to think of something else. It’s nice problems to have.”

The “something else” the former Liverpool and Real Madrid striker references could be the Marygate Stakes at York, with It Ain’t Two’s trainer eyeing an immediate step up into Listed company.

“We took her for a racecourse gallop at Wolverhampton about a month ago and she got lapped, so I thought I best run her as soon as possible,” said Palmer.

“We came here for some nice ground, as it was going to get called off at Redcar!

“Now she’s a winner, I guess we will go to York and try and finish in the top three in the Marygate.”

The Each Way Extra At bet365 EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes has been won by some useful operators over the years and Kevin Ryan’s Bolsena could have more to come after opening her account at the fourth attempt in the hands of Ryan Moore.

Bolsena was a three-length winner in the hands of Ryan Moore
Bolsena was a three-length winner in the hands of Ryan Moore (Bradley Collyer/PA)

Moore was also in the saddle aboard Juddmonte’s Kalpana, who showed a clean pair of heels to surge clear of her rivals in the Price Promise At bet365 Handicap.

The Andrew Balding-trained 11-2 winner could now have a return to the Rowley Mile on her agenda, before connections consider even bigger assignments in the future.

“She has had two very good runs and the horse who beat her the last day of Kevin Ryan’s (Inisherin) could be potentially a very, very good horse,” explained Barry Mahon, European racing manager for the owners.

“We were a bit disappointed that day, but today’s performance shows we probably bumped into a very good horse.

Kalpana impressed in the final race of the day
Kalpana impressed in the final race of the day (Bradley Collyer/PA)

“Andrew has liked her all the time and we thought a step up to 10 furlongs (next time) might bring about improvement and Ryan just said there, she might be a filly who could get 12 furlongs later in the season. We were hopeful of a good run and she definitely did well.

“We will maybe look at the Pretty Polly. She handled the track well and Ryan thought she would be versatile enough ground-wise, so we will look at that if she comes out of this one well.

“We’ll take small steps and if she showed up well in the Pretty Polly, we could consider the Oaks, but we’ll go small steps and see how we go.”

The opening race of the day went the way of Richard Hannon’s Dark Thirty, with the versatile operator proving as consistent as ever when notching up his fourth career success.

“He’s a genuine Saturday horse and one that is very useful. He will win us races every year and it gives us a lot of pleasure.” said Hannon.

Golden Trick banks Ballyhane prize for Hugo Palmer

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Golden Trick showed plenty of guts to lead home a one-two for owners Bronte Collection in the valuable Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes at Naas on Monday.

There was €148,500 on offer for the winner of this fiercely-competitive two-year-old event, with Hugo Palmer’s raider holding off Kevin Ryan’s fellow British-trained runner Jungle Mate in a tight finish.

A winner at Chester last time, the winner was drawn on the far rail and stuck to the paint all the way up the six-furlong straight in the hands of Ben Coen.

Asked to kick on as the race entered the final furlong and a half, Golden Trick soon came to life under Coen and opened up a gap between him and the remainder of the field as the 20 runners were spread right across the width of the track.

Golden Trick’s advantage was diminishing by the stride inside the final stages as those on the far side were closing at a rate of knots. But the 13-2 scorer still had enough up his sleeve to come home a half-length winner and return to Palmer’s Cheshire base with the first prize.

Coen said: “I was hoping that they’d stay far side and not complicate things and go across.

“I had a lovely run the whole way. He came under me at halfway, I gave him a dig and kept him rolling. I probably got there too soon but he’s a hardy horse and he gets through that ground really well.

“In the last 75 yards he was having a look around and I’d say if something had come close to me, he would have went again.

“I had watched his couple of races. Hugo said he was straightforward and that he had come on from the last day and he’d handle the ground so to keep it simple. I’m delighted.”

In the opening Irish Stallion Farms EBF Rated Race, it was Adrian McGuinness’ Rush Queen that got the better of Aidan O’Brien’s 4-5 favourite The Caribbean.

The filly was seen racing over seven furlongs in a Group Three prior to this, but thrived when dropped back to the minimum distance and proved the perfect tonic for her handler who endured a testing time during the recent Galway Festival.

“It’s a bit of compensation (after Galway), it’s forgotten about now after today,” said McGuinness.

“Cian (MacRedmond, jockey) gave her a great ride, I know it was a small field. I thought it was going to be tactical and I told him to sit behind Ryan and try to come with one blast with her.

“Aidan’s horse had blinkers on, so we were saying that he might not be the most straightforward. That’s exactly what he did and she quickened up really well and went away nicely.

“We might hunt a bit of black type with her again and maybe even try to find something in England. She’s for sale as well, but if she’s not sold we will hunt blacktype.

“She’s a very genuine filly and she’s won a nice pot of money today so it’s great.

“She’s not slow, I’ve worked her with the Listed filly at home (Tiger Belle) and there is not a whole pile between them. She travelled very well today.”

International goals on the horizon for Stenton Glider

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German 1000 Guineas runner-up Stenton Glider could be on her travels again later this year as Hugo Palmer plots a course for America with the talented filly.

The three-year-old has thrice finished runner-up in four starts this term, taking the silver medal in the Fred Darling at Newbury and again in Dusseldorf, before achieving another second-place effort when collared late on by Mystic Pearl in Saturday’s Coral Distaff at Sandown.

She was also unplaced behind Mawj in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on her second start this term.

Palmer felt Andrea Atzeni’s mount was a little unfortunate not to add to her Chester novice win as a two-year-old on her latest run in the Listed mile contest.

He said: “She was unlucky in some regards. She fended the other two off, they softened her up, Bridestones (third) and Magical Sunset (seventh), but she is rated 10lb higher than Bridestones.

“She is a very genuine filly, she’s tough and she tries, but she is also one of those that just does enough.

“I think she was content in herself that she was just doing enough and William’s (Haggas) filly has just come wide and late, and done her without any chance to respond.

“It was difficult from that draw (10), as I don’t think Andrea could have done anything else, as if she’d had a tow into the race and been able to quicken off the heels of something, she might have gone on and been a little bit clear of them.”

Palmer has plenty of faith that the best is yet to come from the strapping daughter of Dandy Man, who will be handed entries at Ascot and Haydock.

“We will probably make an entry in the Valiant at Ascot (July 29), but we’d be more likely to go to the Dick Hern (Haydock, August 12). She is a very big filly and still filling her frame. I think she’ll be, with luck and a fair wind, a really nice four-year-old. She didn’t run until the back end last year and she is just growing and changing all the time.”

Palmer saddled Hawksmoor to finish third in the Grade One Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland in 2016 and thinks a return to the Kentucky track could be a good long-term fit for Stenton Glider.

“The priority will be to make her a stakes winner this year,” added the Cheshire handler. “I’ve always had it in the back of my mind if she could be good enough to go and warrant the trip, I’d love to take her to the QEII at Keeneland in October. I think American racing there would suit her really well.

“The priority is to make her a stakes winner now she is Listed, Group Two and Group Three placed.

“She is gorgeous and I think she will keep getting better. If she could win either the Dick Hern or the Valiant, then the Atalanta at Sandown (September 2) would be another possibility for her.”

Hackman looks set for a trip to Goodwood
Hackman looks set for a trip to Goodwood (David Davies/PA)

Meanwhile Hackman, who was runner-up to the impressive Kylian in Friday’s Listed Dragon Stakes, will head to Goodwood.

Winner of a five-furlong Listed race at Chester in May, the Mehmas juvenile had little chance with the winner but has taken the race well.

Palmer said: “He is in really good order. He toughed it out to be second, but James (Doyle) has ridden him to be Listed-placed twice over that track at Sandown this year and he just said he feels like it’s a long way on him.

“So he is going to go to the Molecomb and hopefully maybe that very sharp five will play to his strengths.

“He’s not a superstar, but he is a well-above-average horse and can definitely win stakes races.”

Hugo Palmer may stay close to home with Brad The Brief this weekend
Hugo Palmer may stay close to home with Brad The Brief this weekend (Mike Egerton/PA)

Goodwood is also a possibility for Brad The Brief, who seems poised to miss the Group One Pertemps Network July Cup at Newmarket on Saturday in favour of the Listed Raymond & Kathleen Corbett Memorial City Plate at Chester.

“When I left him in, it looked likely there was going to be more rain, so I would say Brad The Brief is an unlikely runner in the July Cup,” said Palmer.

“But we got pretty wet up here, so I would say he’s pretty likely to run in the seven-furlong Listed race at Chester on Saturday.

“While he has never won over seven, he has always shaped like he could and if that went well, then the (Group Two) Lennox could easily be on his radar as well at Goodwood.”

Palmer planning dual assault on Northumberland Plate

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Zoffee and Rajinsky are set to give trainer Hugo Palmer a strong hand in Saturday’s Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.

Both horses bring strong course form to the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’, with Rajinsky finishing third and fourth in the last two renewals and Zoffee winning last year’s Northumberland Vase – the consolation race for the Plate – on his only previous visit to Gosforth Park.

Rajinsky made a flying start to his campaign by inflicting a shock defeat on star stayer Trueshan in the Further Flight Stakes at Nottingham. He was well beaten in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot next time, but bounced back to finish a close-up fifth in last month’s Chester Cup.

Rajinsky (orange) sees off Trueshan at Nottingham
Rajinsky (orange) sees off Trueshan at Nottingham (Joe Giddens/PA)

The admirable Zoffee filled the runner-up spot on the Roodee, going down by just a neck to Metier, and ran another fine race in defeat when sixth in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last week.

“At this stage the plan is to run both horses,” Palmer confirmed.

“Poor old Rajinsky doesn’t get much luck with the ground in the British summers we get these days, but he ran a great race at Chester and ran a great race in the Northumberland Plate last year.

“It’s a valuable race and he goes on the surface so fingers crossed, but he does have a lot of weight.”

He added: “Zoffee appears to go on any ground and I thought he ran a really great race at Ascot, coming from far too far back from an awkward draw.

“We had runners every day at Ascot so I didn’t see him canter again until this morning (Monday), but he’s full of his usual enthusiasm and Charlotte Kerry, who rides him every day, says he feels fantastic.

“I guess we won’t really know until there’s a furlong to run on Saturday, but he’s certainly in good nick.”

Palmer’s pair were among 48 horses left in the Northumberland Plate Monday’s confirmation stage, with Rajinsky joined at the head of the weights by the William Haggas-trained Roberto Escobarr.

William Haggas has three contenders for the Northumberland Plate
William Haggas has three contenders for the Northumberland Plate (Nigel French/PA)

Haggas is also responsible for the well-fancied Post Impressionist, as well as Nathanael Greene.

Other leading hopes include Michael Bell’s recent Newmarket scorer Adjuvant and Golden Rules, who won on his first start for Deborah Faulkner at Kempton after being bought out of John and Thady Gosden’s yard for just 6,000 guineas.

Omniscient (Sir Mark Prescott), Law Of The Sea (Ian Williams) and All-Weather Marathon winner Rainbow Dreamer (Alan King) also feature.

Palmer has plenty to look forward to with Stenton Glider

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Stenton Glider produced a fine run to finish second to all-the-way winner Habana in the German 1000 Guineas at Dusseldorf on Sunday.

The Hugo Palmer-trained daughter of Dandy Man, who was well held by Mawj in the English equivalent in soft ground at Newmarket on her previous run, the Fred Darling runner-up showed her true metal with a powerful display under Andrea Atzeni.

From an unpromising wide draw in stall 10, Atzeni was forced to make more use of her than he would lave liked early in the mile contest in order to get a good position.

Stenton Glider settled well in third behind the Andreas Wohler-trained Habana and although briefly losing momentum as they crossed the path shortly after turning for home, she stayed on well to take second ahead of the Charlie Appleby-trained Dream Of Love, who was sent off the 6-4 favourite under William Buick.

“That’s the luck of the draw, but the two big questions we wanted answered going there was whether she was a miler and whether she would handle fast ground,” said Palmer.

“They were giving the ground as good, but both Andrea Atzeni and William Buick both agreed the ground was firm, it may have been good to firm.

“She skipped off it and her best furlong was her last furlong, and she has now shown Group form on firm ground and heavy ground, and I’m sure she will be fine on anything in between, so that’s a massive box ticked for us.

“The winner had the run of the race and kicked clear – and the winner is clearly a very good filly – but she kicked clear when we were still behind horses turning for home.

“We were never going to catch her, but we were reducing the deficit all the time, and we’re obviously delighted with how she has run. Hopefully, her first stakes victory won’t be far away.”

Though beaten three lengths by Eduardo Predroza’s mount, there was plenty to like about the fillies who filled the places, and Palmer, who had won the Group Two contest twice before with Hawksmoor (2016) and Unforgetable Filly (2017), has not ruled out a trip to Royal Ascot with Stenton Glider.

He added: “This is the first time she has run on fast ground and Andrea said that when she went to let down on it, it was a new sensation for her and she just took a stride or two to hit top gear and realise she did enjoy it, and could handle it. She stretched all the way to the line.

“That path is a very difficult challenge of the race, like the ridges at the bottom of the hill at Sandown.

“I remember when we won it before, James Doyle made a particular issue of it. He was more prominent than we were today and he made sure that as soon as he crossed the path on the bridle, he kicked and took the momentum away form the others. It is one of the idiosyncrasies of the track.

“We weren’t in that position and we were chasing, so we had to go from there, but I’m absolutely delighted.

“We will see what the handicapper does, if we didn’t move too much and she came out of the race OK, then the Sandringham would still be a possibility.

Hugo Palmer was delighted with Stenton Glider's run
Hugo Palmer was delighted with Stenton Glider’s run (Mike Egerton/PA)

“Potentially, there’s the Listed race at Carlisle (Eternal Stakes, over an extended six and a half furlongs) at the end of the month.

“I’ve always thought the Dick Hern at Haydock in early August might suit her very well. I suppose potentially the Thoroughbred Stakes at Goodwood – I’m talking off the top of my head – she could take on colts.

“The priority is she needs to be a stakes winner. Once she is, then the world really is her oyster. Then we can have fun – not that we are not having fun at the moment!”

Buick was far from unhappy with the performance from Dream Of Love, who had been a place and a length in front of Stenton Glider when 12th in the fillies’ Classic at Newmarket.

William Buick felt Dream Of Love took a step up
William Buick felt Dream Of Love took a step up (David Davies/PA)

Prominent near the rail throughout, she stuck to her task well to finish two-and-a-quarter lengths further back in third.

Buick said: “She ran very well. I thought it was a competitive race on fast ground.

“Everything went smooth and she has probably taken another step up on what she has achieved in the past.”

Palmer eyeing National Stakes for Hackman before potential Ascot raid

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Hugo Palmer describes Hackman as “the fastest two-year-old I’ve ever had anything to do with” as he eyes up a tilt at Sandown’s National Stakes with his Chester winner.

Success on the Roodee is a given for the tenant of Michael Owen’s Manor House Stables and having hit the crossbar with the fittingly named Balon D’Or in the Lily Agnes, it was Hackman who got Palmer and the former England international Owen on the scoresheet at Chester’s May Festival with a taking display over five furlongs.

Having advertised his blistering speed on that occasion, his handler will now keep the precocious son of Mehmas at five furlongs for his next start, with stablemate Balon D’Or potentially moving up in trip for the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom on June 2 despite also holding an entry for Sandown on Thursday.

Palmer explained: “The initial feeling with Balon D’Or was to go to the National Stakes and we still might. But the speed Hackman showed and the knowledge that Balon D’Or really is ready for the step up to six furlongs, we might just wait a week for the Woodcote with Balon D’Or and then run Hackman in the National.

“It’s a stiff five and he has always showed so much speed my initial worry would be will he get the five furlongs? But he got five furlongs in ground that was very soft at Chester, so you would hope he would stay. He’s the fastest two-year-old I’ve ever had anything to do with.”

Royal Ascot is on the agenda for both Hackman and Balon D’Or and Palmer is hoping both talented youngsters can get their tickets to the summer showpiece stamped via their next assignments.

He continued: “It’s the same for every speedy early-season two-year-old but I would be hopeful that if Hackman could win the National we would head to the Norfolk and if not we would probably go to the Windsor Castle.

Hackman returns after winning at Chester
Hackman returns after winning at Chester (PA)

“Similarly with Balon D’Or, if he won the Woodcote, the Coventry would very much be on the radar for him, but he also has the Windsor Castle as an option as well.

“I hope they will very much be involved at Ascot but we will see – they have to step forward and they have to perform on their next starts.

“It is all very jolly saying we’ll go to Royal Ascot, but the also-rans enclosure is a very boring and lonely place at Royal Ascot so we have to go there thinking we can be competitive. There is nothing more dreary than waking up on the Tuesday of Royal Ascot excited about your chances and realising you are 100-1.”

Hackman leaves Owen purring after Chester victory

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Michael Owen cut a delighted figure in the Chester winner’s enclosure when Hackman surged to an impressive victory in the British EBF Ruby Anniversary Maiden Stakes.

The former England international famously relishes winners at his home track and had his first success on the Roodee with Treble Heights in 2002.

Trained by Hugo Palmer, Hackman was the 11-8 favourite in the hands of James Doyle and having bounced out of the stalls, made every yard to register an easy one-and-three-quarter-length victory.

Hackman returns after winning at Chester
Hackman returns after winning at Chester (PA)

It is a race Owen has tasted plenty of success in over the years and with the precocious son of Mehmas fittingly winning the race his sire landed in 2016, connections are now dreaming of a trip to Royal Ascot later in the summer.

“His work at home suggested he’d come on a bundle for his debut,” said Palmer.

“I was nervous would he get the five furlongs, but he saw it out well. We are now dreaming of the Norfolk Stakes and maybe Sandown at the end of the month.”

Owen added: “He’s a really good horse and he’s very fast – he’s five furlongs through and through.

“This place means a lot to me and to win here means a lot. It’s an important meeting and we’re on the board with what we thought was our best chance of the week. He’s a nice horse and we’ve always thought Royal Ascot with him and I don’t think he’s changed our minds there.

“I really wanted to win that one. I’ve been fortunate to win plenty of races around the world and Group Ones and people might be thinking ‘a poxy little maiden round Chester’ but I wanted to win that one.

“He is just everything you want in an early two-year-old, he jumps quick and he’s a little bull of a horse. He’s great and I love him.”

Balon D’Or aiming to hit Agnes target for Owen

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Hugo Palmer’s highly-regarded Balon D’Or has a wide draw to overcome in the Caa Stellar Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes on the opening day of the Boodles May Festival at Chester.

The Kodiac colt is owned and was bred by Michael Owen – and named as a nod to the revered annual football award he won in 2001, the former England striker saying he hoped he had “saved a special name for a special horse.”

Balon D’Or made his debut in early April and was a taking winner when coming home a neck to the good, especially considering he was carried markedly right by another horse the moment he left the stalls.

His Chester draw in stall 11, widest of all, does not help his cause but some of the field could defer to a maiden event on Thursday and so he could find himself more handily placed come post time.

“He did really well on debut and I think he’s come forward for it, but he’s got a terrible draw,” Palmer said.

“He’s been given a mountain to climb but that is the luck of the draw, he’s well and we’ll just have to see how we go as there might be some non runners which would help.”

Palmer has a second runner in the contest in Tierney, a Mehmas filly out of a four-time winning mare called Madam Macie who makes her debut in the race.

“She’s a nice filly. Like all of ours, she will come forward and improve for her debut but she’s a nice speedy filly that we like.”

Curragh-based trainer John O’Donoghue is set to have his first Chester runner in debut winner Parkside Boy.

The Kuroshio colt is out of top racemare Carry On Katie, a Group One heroine who won both the Lowther Stakes and the Cheveley Park in 2003.

He ran for the first time in a Dundalk maiden in mid April and duly won by half a length under Ronan Whelan, with this Chester contest then quickly identified as his next target.

“He’s been trained for this race since he won at Dundalk, we feel that a sharp, turning five furlongs is very much his forte,” O’Donoghue said.

“Thankfully we’ve got a bit of luck with the draw in stall four, so we’re looking forward to getting him out again.

“He’s precocious and we didn’t waste any time between when he was broken and pre-trained and then sent to us. Hopefully he’s as effective as his frame and his pedigree suggest at this time of year as a two-year-old.”

Middleham Park Racing own the first two horses in the market in Ziggy’s Phoenix and Ziggy’s Dream, trained by Richard Hannon and Alice Haynes respectively.

Ziggy’s Phoenix was beaten a length on her debut at Kempton in April, after which she headed to Ripon for her first run on turf in a five-furlong novice.

There she was a comfortable winner, crossing the line a length and three-quarters ahead of her nearest rival under Joe Fanning as the 11-4 joint favourite.

Ziggy’s Dream has only one run under her belt but it was a winning performance at Doncaster, where she landed a five-furlong maiden by a length and a quarter on soft ground.

“They’re both named by the same person (co-owner) Simon Woods, it’s a privilege to have two runners in this prestigious race,” said Tim Palin of Middleham Park.

“We won this in 2011 with Lily’s Angel and these are two really nice fillies, we didn’t want to run them (against each other) but both trainers were keen to run so we declared them.

“They’ve both got soft ground form, any rain that falls shouldn’t hinder them – it might even just enhance their chances a wee bit because both horses will stay further.

“They’ll both get six furlongs in time. I think the reason Ziggy’s Phoenix is favoured by the betting market is just that she’s drawn in that pole position, she’s drawn one whereas as Ziggy’s Dream’s (stall six) form is just as good I think, the Racing Post say 3lb better and Timeform say four.

“They’re two nice fillies and hopefully after the first 100 yards they’ll be in the first wave and may the best Ziggy win, may the best horse in the race win.

“We’re there with our two fillies, we think they’re nice and hopefully they’ll be involved in the finish.”

Palmer keen on Guineas bid for Stenton Glider

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Stenton Glider booked her ticket for the Qipco 1000 Guineas when narrowly touched off at Newbury on Saturday.

Reeled in by Ralph Beckett’s Remarquee, with both fillies having just their second starts, the Fred Darling looked well up to standard as a Classic trial this year.

Having won a Chester novice on her debut in September, Stenton Glider was due to run in December, but refused to go in the stalls. She appeared to have done well through the winter, however, and looked in rude health in the Newbury paddock.

Trainer Hugo Palmer believes the striking daughter of Dandy Man warrants her place in the Rowley Mile fillies’ Classic on Sunday week after such a narrow defeat under Tom Marquand.

“Handsome is as handsome does,” laughed the Cheshire-based handler.

“As a trainer, you can’t go making expensive entries like the Guineas with a maiden winner, get beaten two-foot in a trial and then say ‘no’.

“She has got to step up and she’s a 25-1 shot, but she’s only two-foot behind a 6-1 shot. Two foot is nothing.”

Stenton Glider showed plenty of ability, taking a keen hold in the Group Three contest, before being collared inside the last 150 yards.

Palmer has no qualms about the additional furlong in the Guineas as he seeks another Classic success following Galileo Gold’s 2000 Guineas victory in 2016 and the Irish Oaks success of Covert Love in 2015.

He added: “She is going to meet a different test at Newmarket. She’s going to meet a big field and she is going to meet undulations and almost certainly going to encounter quicker ground.

“She showed loads of speed, but I’m certain she’ll stay – and Tom Marquand said a mile will be absolutely no problem to her.

“All her work suggests she’s a miler. She showed loads of speed, but they went very steady. Nothing wanted to lead, the time was very slow for good fillies.

Hugo Palmer feels the Rowley Mile will suit Stenton Glider
Hugo Palmer feels the Rowley Mile will suit Stenton Glider (Mike Egerton/PA)

“We feel she will be better on better ground. She could possibly have been a non-runner if her owner hadn’t given up tickets for the snooker World Championships to come and watch her!”

Along with her son Tom, Jane Mairs owns the filly, who is named after the famous racing bicycle invented by her grandfather, Percy Stenton.

The Stenton Glider Cycle Company was based in Ardwick, Manchester, and advertised its machines as ‘The cycle that gives you a sporting chance’.

Palmer added: “Jane’s maiden name was Stenton and her grandfather invented the first drop-handled racing bike, which was called the Stenton Glider, which debuted at the Olympics in the 1920s (Amsterdam 1928).

“All racing bikes now have handles in the drop-handle position and for Jane, who has owned horses in syndicates for a number of years, it has always been her dream to have a horse and call it Stenton Glider.”

Flaming Rib (centre) runs in Hong Kong on Sunday
Flaming Rib (centre) runs in Hong Kong on Sunday (Tim Goode/PA)

Meanwhile, Palmer’s high-class sprinter Flaming Rib, who was runner-up to Perfect Power in the Commonwealth Cup last summer and took a valuable sprint in Doha in February, has settled in well ahead of Sunday’s bid for the six-furlong Chairman’s Sprint Prize in Hong Kong.

“Flaming Rib is in good order,” said Palmer. “He was invited and he has got to raise his game to feature, but he has travelled over there in good shape and seems to love getting on an aeroplane.

“He won well in Doha and seemed to be on the wrong side in Dubai, the way the race panned out.

“It is over six furlongs and he does seem to have produced his best efforts round a bend.”

Racing Systems: Flat Trainers, Part 1

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Last week, I switched focus to flat racing (turf and all weather combined) and, as we’re now officially into the flat season, I am sticking again to the flat with attention switching to trainer based systems, writes Dave Renham.

As with the first five articles in this series I am going to look over the long term, studying UK data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021 with all profits quoted to Betfair Starting Price.

As we know, systems are not for everyone, and I am not a system user per se. However, I do have a group of systems that highlight horses I will then go on to study in more detail: systems do not have to be totally rigid unless you want them to be.

As I have stated before when sharing these racing systems I am not advocating that you use some of them, or all of them; rather, the plan is to give you the facts and figures in order to make an informed choice. So let’s get cracking:

 

Keith Dalgleish – Second Career start system

Keith Dalgleish started training in 2011 in South Lanarkshire. His career strike rate stands at 12% which is very respectable and last year (2021) was his best year numerically with 93 winners in total. It was also his most profitable; backing all Dalgleish runners on the flat in 2021 would have yielded a return of over 26p in the £.

Looking at his record, he has done very well with horses having their second ever career run. Hence this system reads very simply:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Keith Dalgleish
  3. Second career start

 

Let us have a look at the raw system results:

 

 

These are solid looking results – good profit from an excellent ROI. The strike rate of nearly 17% is sound considering the type of horse we are talking about: the average win strike rate for all second time starters (all trainers) is around 12%.

Let's graph the annual breakdowns and as we are looking at relatively small yearly samples I have used profit figures to £1 level stakes. As Dalgleish started training in 2011, the data set starts from there rather than 2009:

 

 

As can be seen, Dalgleish's results were not so good in the two of the first three years, but I think we can forgive this as it was the early days of his training career. From 2014 onwards his runners having their second career start have done very well. Overall they've recorded seven winning years and four losing ones; (six out of the last eight were profitable). 2017 looks poor but he had runner up finishes that year at BSP prices of 20.45, 14.50 and 12.74. Two of these were beaten very narrowly (a head and half a length) and if a couple had managed to win, the year would have been around the breakeven point. We have to appreciate that regardless of bottom line results, luck, good or bad, can play a significant part in whether we make a profit or a loss.

There is good news that these results have not been badly skewed by numerous big priced winners; just two winners over 30.0 on Betfair and none over 50.0. Indeed, if we focus on his runners whose BSP was under 30.0 results actually are even better:

 

 

That focus brings the strike rate up nicely to nearly a win from every four runners, and returns close to 73p in the £. The yearly breakdown also improves to eight winning years and three losing ones.

As with any system involving very unexposed horses, we are playing with fire a bit. However, Dalgleish has been profitable with both his 2yos and 3yos under this system (N.B. he has had just four qualifiers aged 4 or older, one of which won). The majority of his qualifiers have been 2yos, but the 66 3yo qualifiers produced half of the profits.

So is this a system to use? Quite possibly. Obviously we are reliant on the trainer having a 2yo crop each year of similar ability to what he has had in the past as they will make up about 75% of all system qualifiers, but consistency in that regard hasn't been too much of an issue to date.

Some additional points to note. Dalgleish's female runners have been particularly successful. Also, as highlighted in this Keith Dalgleish trainer profile, his best results have come at tracks in the north of England and in Scotland. He had 31 qualifiers that raced in the midlands or further south and just two have won.

 

Hugo Palmer – 2 & 3yos that made debut at Newmarket

In my last article I shared a system that backed horses that finished in the first three at Newmarket on their debut (first ever run). Newmarket debutants are a key part to this system too. Here are the rules:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. 2yo and 3yo runners from the Hugo Palmer stable
  3. Subsequent runs after debut at Newmarket
  4. SP 10/1 or less

 

This is a completely different system from anything I have shared before. This is because the same horse could become a qualifier several times in different races using this system. Essentially if the horse made their debut at Newmarket, you back it on any subsequent start as a 2yo or 3yo. That might be one or two runs, it could be ten, and it could be none.

I have also added a price cap which as we know is something we cannot always be 100% sure of when betting pre-race, especially if the early price of the horse is around the figure quoted (in this case an industry SP of 10/1). For the record a BSP price cap of 15.0 would give us virtually the same results and bottom line. The good thing about this price cap is that we know the overall figures are not skewed by any huge priced winners.

Onto the system results now:

 

 

Considering the system is backing all Newmarket debutants on all of their subsequent starts up to and including the age of three, these figures look very sound. For me personally, the strike rate of over 30% is the most impressive part. Good strike rates are not a pre-requisite for a good system, but in general the higher the hit rate the more likely it is to be consistent.

I dug a bit deeper by looking to see how many individual horses qualified under this system – 57 horses did and of those 43 managed at least one win. This means 75% of all runners that started won at least once after their Newmarket debut before reaching the age of 4. That is a very high percentage (average for all trainers is 59%), which I guess explains the system’s apparent success.

Onto the yearly breakdown now – I am using profit figures to £1 level stakes again due to the relative small number of qualifiers each year. The data shared, as with Dalgleish, only goes back to 2011, as that is when Palmer started training, too:

 

 

Despite the relatively small samples for each year, Palmer has secured profits in eight of the years, had two losing years and one that broke even. When you look at the annual strike rates, they too have been impressive:

 

 

We can ignore 2013 as he only had two qualifiers but every other year the strike rate has exceeded 20% while in nine of the 11 years the strike rate has been 25% or higher.

This is definitely an unusual system as normally the system rules creates one bet for one horse. As stated earlier, with this system the same horse can be bet several times. In general, horses that make their debut at Newmarket are of a good level of ability and in Hugo Palmer’s case they certainly seem to run well early in their careers.

The one fly in the ointment with this system is that Palmer has agreed to train for ex-footballer Michael Owen at his Manor House Stables in Cheshire. That, of course, is a lot further from Newmarket than his former Kremlin House yard on the Snailwell Road, actually in Newmarket!

 

Paul Midgley – Finished in first two LTO system

Paul Midgley is definitely not a household name but in previous research I have done he is a trainer who I think is underrated. This system is very simple as the title suggests:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Paul Midgley
  3. Finished 1st or 2nd LTO

The overall results going back to 2009 are as follows:

 

 

The results are very good considering the simplicity of the system, and the strike rate is about what you would expect for this type of runner. Returns of 16p in the £ are thoroughly acceptable, too. Let’s check the annual figures now to £1 level stakes at BSP:

 

 

A small loss in 2009 was followed by a bigger reverse in 2010 but, since then, eight years of profit (albeit two only just) and three losing years. Two very good years (2012 and 2018) produced the lion’s share of the overall profits and, as with many systems, results fluctuate somewhat from year to year. Nothing is ever going to be a smooth line with system angles and this is a good example of the peaks and troughs. The key is that the peaks should Himalayan while the troughs are only small gullies!

In its raw form this not a system I would consider for backing all runners, but I would take a note of any qualifier before undertaking some further race analysis.

It is also worth sharing the fact that much bigger priced runners have performed poorly. Those with an industry SP of 20/1 or bigger have produced just one winner from 67, creating losses of £30.83 (ROI -46.0%). On the plus side this means the raw system has not been skewed in the least by big priced winners; quite the opposite in fact.

With horses that have run well last time out I am personally a fan of that good run being relatively recent – within around three weeks is normally my personal cut off point on the flat. Hence I wanted to see what difference, if any, that type of additional rule would make to the Midgley results.

Here are the findings of Midgley horses that finished LTO 1st or 2nd racing again within 3 weeks:

 

 

The strike rate has edged up and although profits are down in absolute terms by about £6 there would have been 276 fewer qualifiers compared to original system. Consequently, returns have improved from 16p to 23p in the £. In terms of annual returns, these have smoothed out a bit, too, as the table below shows:

 

 

That's ten winning years (although three were essentially break-even) and three losing years. Restricting selections to those which ran within the last three weeks looks a plausible and logical addition to the system, assuming one is happy that this is not significant back-fitting: your call. This system has possibilities for sure.

 

Roger Varian – Six month system

Roger Varian was assistant trainer to Michael Jarvis for a decade before taking over the reins in 2011 (making him the third trainer in this article to have started in that year). He has been a very consistent trainer and seems able to get runners fit regardless of time off the track. Here is the Roger Varian system:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer - Roger Varian
  3. Six months (180 days) or more since last run
  4. SP 10/1 or less

Some trainers are adept at getting their runners fit after a long break and Roger Varian certainly falls into that category. I have included the same price cap as I used earlier for the Hugo Palmer system. This attempts to avoid the inevitable price cap ‘back-fit’ trap that many system punters fall into; sticking to the same price cap is the way to go.

Onto the results for this system (2011-2021):

 

 

The table shows that roughly three in every ten qualifiers have won which, considering the time off the track, is impressive. Here is the annual breakdown:

 

 

It's a fairly consistent set of results with eight winning years and three losing ones. Each losing year lost less than a tenner at £1 stakes, the worst being £8.13. Further signs of consistency can be found when we look at a breakdown of qualifiers by age:

 

 

Each age group can boast a profit, strike rates are consistently good to outstanding, and all A/E values  are at 1 or higher. This system looks one to follow and, at the time of writing, Varian has had seven qualifiers in 2022, two of which have won at BSP prices of 2.29 and 9.92, and a further three of which ran second, boosting the overall profits by a further few quid.

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And so we come to end of this latest piece, the first of three focusing on flat trainer system angles. Hopefully you have found a few useful snippets above, and next time I’ll be digging under the headline numbers of four more flat trainers.

- DR

Racing Systems: All Weather Angles

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In my previous article I explored the idea of using trainer systems in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. This time I have turned my attention to the all-weather with a view to finding some more profitable trainer patterns.

As with the last piece I am going to look over the long term, studying UK racing trainer data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021. If trainers have proved profitable over such a long timeframe then we should have more confidence that this will continue to happen. As ever, though, racing systems are only dealing with past results: those of us not blessed with clairvoyance cannot be sure of what will happen in the future!

OK, let's get to it.

Ralph Beckett – the ‘Blind’ system

Ralph Beckett is a trainer that I think punters in general underrate. Year in, year out he seems to produce the goods. He has good figures for turf racing, but on the all-weather they are even better. Indeed, let's start with possibly the simplest system one could create:

  1. Trainer Ralph Beckett
  2. All races on the all-weather

That’s it – bet every single Beckett runner on the sand. The graph below shows the yearly breakdown of Beckett's Return on Investment to Betfair SP.

 

 

The Kimpton, Hampshire-based trainer has enjoyed 11 winning years out of 13, with the losses in 2018 very small in reality. His strike rate has fluctuated a little as one might expect, ranging from a low of 10.4% in 2019 to as high as 23.7% in 2020. However, 2019 was the only year it dipped below 14.5% and in eight years the strike rate has exceeded 20%. The overall bottom line reads as follows:

 

 

That's extremely impressive at first glance. Things do need clarifying a touch, however, in that his profits have been helped by some big priced winners; but these winners actually occurred on a regular basis. Indeed, Beckett has had 45 winners priced at a BSP of 12.0 or bigger since 2009, with at least two such scorers annually, and the graph below shows how these have been spread out over the years:

 

 

Whenever we look at system results we need to ensure that random big-priced winners do not skew the overall results. This is a case where I believe random big-priced winners are not skewing the results but, instead, are a feature of the result set.

Another positive in terms of consistency is when we examine the individual course data. The table below gives us the Beckett breakdown for the six UK all-weather courses:

 

 

Strike rates are consistent across the piece, and all courses show a profit at Betfair SP. This reliability can also been seen when we break down results by month. Ten of the 12 calendar months have shown a profit as we can see:

 

 

December and January, peak all-weather season in fairness, are the only two negative months. Maybe it is a time of year that Beckett targets a little less. It is interesting that ‘returns’ wise Beckett has done particularly well in the spring and summer months, definitely something worth noting when most people's focus is on flat turf racing.

Some readers may not be comfortable betting all Beckett runners ‘blind’ so are there any additional rules we can add that do not smell of the dreaded back-fitting? Well, some kind of betting market rule may help, especially if you are concerned that the results are slightly skewed due to big-priced winners. If we add the following rule:

- stick to horses from the top five in the betting

This would cut the number of selections by around 350, increase the strike rate to 22.8% and keep profits relatively high – a profit to £1 level stakes of £291.23 (ROI +21.2%). The year by year returns retain their consistency, in fact 12 of the 13 years now show a profit using this market restriction.

All in all, if there is one all-weather trainer to keep on your side it is Ralph Beckett.

Let’s check out some other trainers now.

 

Hugo Palmer – the Market system

Hugo Palmer has a decent record on the sand since he started in 2011. If we use a market restriction we create a potential system to follow. The rules are:

  1. Trainer Hugo Palmer
  2. All races on the all-weather
  3. Top five in the betting.

 

Using the same market restriction I used with Beckett, Palmer’s overall figures look solid:

 

 

Using this top five in the betting rule once again means the figures are less skewed by big-priced winners, which as previously mentioned is important, but it also means we often cannot know the market rank of a runner unless it is near the very top of the betting or an outsider.

Breaking the figures down by year shows a fair amount of consistency. I have used profit figures to £1 level stakes to illustrate this:

 

 

Palmer incurred small losses in his first two seasons, but given he was still cutting his teeth in the game these can be forgiven. Since then there have been eight winning years out of nine. 2019 was a poor year but he did actually the post with several seconds that year and I think we can reasonably overlook that.

Looking at his course by course  data with runners in the top five of the betting, he has made profits at Kempton, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton; broke even at Chelmsford, and made a loss at Lingfield. Again, that's fair enough consistency.

There are other options in terms of adding system rules, but this Hugo Palmer system definitely has a decent chance to remain profitable for the near future at least. Hence no need for me to change to it. You may like to research further, however!

 

Mark Johnston – Older horses, lower class system

Mark Johnston has averaged about 400 runners per year on the all-weather in recent years and hence it gives us a huge sample size to break down. His annual strike rate has been super consistent in recent times hitting around the 15% mark every year:

 

 

Now, most top trainers in the country, like Johnston, tend to focus more on their younger horses as they are going to be the ones that are likely to have a chance at stud (and are not exposed as moderate or in the grip of the handicapper). It is noticeable that the runners Mark Johnston (and joint-licence holder son, Charlie) keeps in training past three years old perform well as a whole on the all-weather. They make up only 23% of his runners on the sand, but if backing all such runners (4yo and up) ‘blind’ they would have broken even over the past 13 years. The route to profit seems to be in lower class races, Class 5 or below. Hence the system reads:

  1. Trainer Mark (and Charlie) Johnston
  2. 4yo+ running on the all-weather
  3. Class 5, 6 or 7

Running older horses in lower class races is relatively rare for trainers like Johnston but the overall stats still look promising:

 

 

A good strike rate edging towards one win in four, and returns of 32p in the £ are appealing. Let's break the data down by year and, as always, we are looking for consistency. The graph uses profit figures to £1 level stakes:

 

 

Overall there have been decent results across the piece, with just three losing years. 2020 could have been impacted by COVID so that is something that potentially we might take into account. Another positive is that in the same time frame this ‘system’ would have made a profit for Johnston in turf flat racing too; not as big a profit, but a positive return nonetheless. Hence I am hopeful that this angle should offer a good chance of making further profits in the future.

 

Charles Hills – Fancied Males system

It should be noted that male horses outperform female ones on the all-weather, with overall figures for all horses from all trainers seeing males win 11.8% of the time, females only 9.1%. There is a much bigger discrepancy though when you look at the runners of Charles Hills splitting them by gender. His male runners have won 19.3% of the time, whereas female runners have triumphed just 11.4% of the time. Hence the Hills gap looks extremely significant.

So here is another potential system in which we are using a limited number of rules. Again I want to implement the same market rule as I have used previously to avoid the bigger-priced winners skew dilemma. Hence our system reads:

  1. Trainer Charles Hills
  2. All races on the all-weather
  3. Top five in the betting
  4. Male horses only

His results, like Hugo Palmer’s, only go back to 2011 but the basic figures look strong:

 

 

He has seen a good strike rate as you would expect with a system that uses market factors as one of its rules. Decent returns, too, of around 26p in the £.

Once again though we need to look at the yearly data in a bid to establish consistency. Broken down this time by BSP ROI%:

 

 

2011 looks bad but he had only six runners in that first season with a licence, and all lost, hence the -100% ROI. We can see a subsequent steady improvement over time with 2012 to 2014 essentially breaking even, while every year from 2015 to 2021 has ended up with positive returns.

I had a sneaky look at his results so far in 2022, and at the time of writing (7th March), the system has generated 20 qualifiers, 10 of which have won (SR 50%) showing a BSP profit of £15.31 (ROI +76.55%). The signs remain very promising.

The beauty of all-weather racing is that it happens all year round and hence these four systems can potentially be exploited regardless of whether the main focus is on National Hunt or flat turf racing: we can just carry on finding nice winners on the sand!

*

That's all for this article. If you have any system ideas you’d like me to investigate, please leave a comment below.

- DR

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Ascot : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3 (Raced keenly towards rear, bit closer in mid-division on inside halfway, not clear run and switched left inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on late, never going pace to get involved) - We smashed the SP, but never got a run for our money. I rarely criticise jockeys, but I thought this was a poor ride.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Power of States @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2½f on Good ground worth £7,763 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was fourth last time out at Ascot 16 days ago and now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, whilst the winner of that Ascot race stepped up a class to beat our pick on Saturday.

The drop in class was what caught my eye here, as I'm always interested in Hugo Palmer's handicappers dropping down a level, as those sent off at 14/1 or shorter since the start of 2017 are 27 from 117 (23.1% SR) for 64.25pts at a decent ROI of 54.92%.

And that's if you backed all of them! We don't, generally, so what filters can we apply to make our betting more efficient? Well, of those 117 class droppers, there are...

  • 24/89 (27%) for 82.8pts (93.1%) in fields of 8-15 runners
  • 23/90 (25.6%) for 53.6pts (+59.6%) from male runners
  • 22/96 (22.9%) for 66.7pts (+69.4%) with runners unplaced LTO
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 47.2pts (+71.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/62 (24.2%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) at 11-25 days since their last run
  • 7/20 (35%) for 24.2pts (+121%) dropping down in trip by 1 to 2½f
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+79.7%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m2½f
  • and 6/21 (28.6%) for 18.4pts (+87.8%) with James Doyle in the saddle....

...whilst males who failed to make the frame LTO are 16 from 58 (27.6% SR) for 59.4pts (+102.4% ROI) in fields of 8-15 runners, providing us with over 92% of our original profit from less than 50% of the bets.

This horse is also Hugo's only runner at the meeting tonight, which is also of interest, as since the start of 2016, his record at Evens to 9/1 with solo entrants stands at 71/279 (25.5% SR) for 95pts (+34.1% ROI) in handicaps, including of relevance this evening...

  • 63/224 (28.1%) for 111.8pts (+49.9%) with those off the track for more than 15 days
  • 39/149 (26.2%) for 81.8pts (+54.9%) from those unplaced LTO

...whilst those racing after a 15+ day absence since an unplaced finish LTO are 33 from 123 (26.8%) for 77.4pts (+62.9%), including 10 from 33 (30.3%) for 25.4pts (+76.8%) from those dropping down a class...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Power of States @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.00 am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!