Tag Archive for: kempton horse racing trends

Boxing Day TV Trends (Kempton & Wetherby)

A huge day on Boxing Day (Sunday, Dec 26th 2021), but the festive highlight, as racing resumes after a three-day break, is the King George VI Meeting at Kempton Park.

The King George VI Chase is the feature race of the day as punters will look to get their Christmas expenses paid for – a race in recent years we’ve seen horse racing greats like Kauto Star, Long Run, Best Mate, Kicking King, One Man and, more recently, Thistlecrack, Might Bite, landing the prize – while the Paul Nicholls-trained Clan Des Obeaux has landed two of the last three King George VI Chases, while Nicholls took the pot again 12 months ago - his twelfth win in the race - with Frodon - ridden by Bryony Frost.

Plus, at Wetherby the ITV cameras are also heading there to take in the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Chase.

Here at GeeGeez, we take a look at each race on the Kempton card and highlight the main trends, plus the Rowland Meyrick Chase (Wetherby) – hopefully this will help you narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few festive winners.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Trends and Tips

12:45 – Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side ON Football Novices' Hurdle Race 2m RTV

14/14 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
13/14 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Favourites placed in the top 3
11/14 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Winning distance 3 lengths or more
10/14 – Had won a NH Flat race before
8/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Won just once over hurdles before
5/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Third Time Lucki (11/10 fav) won the race 12 months ago

 

1.20 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV

17/17 – Aged 7 or younger
16/17 – Had won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK
14/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/17 – Placed favourites (1 joint)
9/17 – Officially rated between 119 and 125
8/17 – Carried 11-5 or more
8/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/17 – Won by a French bred horse
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Raced at Kempton last time out
Killer Clown (9/2) won the race 12 months ago

 

1.55 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

17/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Placed in the top two last time out
14/18 – Won last time out
14/18 – French (7) or Irish (7) bred
13/18 – Had won at least 2 times over fences in the UK
12/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
12/18 – Aged 6 or younger
11/18 – Went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (no winners)
11/18 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/18 – Aged 6 years-old
10/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Had won (chase) over at least 3m before
8/18 – Raced at Newbury last time out
8/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by David Pipe
2/18 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
1/18 – French trained
1/18 – Went onto run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (One winner - Coneygree 2015)
Shan Blue (7/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago

 

2.30 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/19 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
16/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Went onto run in the Champion Hurdle (Faughan (2015), Buveur D’Air (2018), Epatante (2019) winners)
11/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Winning favourites
10/19 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle that season
10/19 – Had run over hurdles at Kempton before
8/19 – Irish trained
8/19 – Ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out
7/19 – French bred
7/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/19 – Trained by Noel Meade
2/19 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/19 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Silver Streak (13/2) won the race in 2020
Epatante (2/1) won the race in 2019

 

3.05 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

17/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
17/19 – Had won a Grade One chase before
17/19 – French (13) or Irish bred (4)
16/19 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/19 – Placed favourites
16/19 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
15/19 – Officially rated 168 or higher
15/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Aged 8 or younger
12/19 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
11/19 – Winning favourites
11/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
10/19 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (12 times in all)
8/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/19 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 35 runnings)
Paul Nicholls, Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson have trained ALL of the last 15 winners between them (10 Nicholls, 2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 5/1

 

3.40 – Ladbrokes We Play Together Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f RTV

 

14/14 – Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles)
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
12/14 – Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK)
10/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/14 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/14 – Ran 5 or less weeks ago
8/13 – Officially rated 120-129
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – French bred
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Monte Cristo (25/1) won the race 12 months ago

 

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.10 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m45y ITV

12/13 – Aged 8 or younger
12/13 – Had won 3 or less times over fences (UK)
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
11/13 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
11/13 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had raced at Wetherby before
8/13 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/13 – Had won over 3m (chase) before
8/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Unplaced in their last race
4/13 – Raced at either Haydock (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/13– Winning favourites
Canelo won the race in 2020
Top Ville Ben won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad won the race in 2018

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 27th March 2021

Something for everyone this Saturday as new turf season gets going at Doncaster on Saturday, with the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap as the feature, while there is also decent all-weather racing at Kempton with that include the Listed Magnolia Stakes, plus jumping fans will get their fix at Newbury.

The ITV cameras are showing eight races across the three venues and, as always, we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats.

 

KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 –Ladbrokes Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Drawn in stalls 1-4 (inc)
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
7/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/13 – Had won at Kempton before
5/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – Irish bred
3/13 – Trained by William Haggas
3/13 – Trained by John Gosden


2.15 –
Ladbrokes Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 1m3f ITV

16/16 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
13/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/16 – Rated between 89 and 99
11/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
9/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Winning favourites

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

2.00 – Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV

Just 7 previous running
7/7 – Last ran 4+ months ago
7/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Rated 106+
6/7 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
6/7 – Had won over at least 1m before
6/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
4/7 – Had won 6+ times before
4/7 – Winning favourites
4/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/7 – Trained by Roger Varian (3 of last 4)
2/7 – Won last time out

2.35 – Unibet Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

15/18 – Carried 8-13 or more
15/18 – Aged 4 years-old
15/18 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/18 – Won over a mile before
10/18 – Won from a single-figure draw
3/18 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Won last time out
1/18 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 18 years

 

3.10 – Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

17/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/17 – Had won between 2-4 times before
13/17 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
12/17 – Having their first run of the flat season
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Officially rated between 95-100
9/17 – Placed first or second last time out
8/17 – Had raced at Doncaster before
7/17 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
7/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/17  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/17 – Trained by John Quinn
2/17 – Ridden by James Doyle (last 2)
9 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 34 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

3.45 - Unibet Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
14/16 – Had won no more than 5 times before
14/16 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
14/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/16 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/16 – Had won over 6f before
11/16 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
10/16 – Rated 102+
9/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
3/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites (or joint)
3/16 – Had won at Doncaster before
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 11 runnings
7 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends

2.50 –BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 28% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 18% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Gary Moore is only 3-from-76 (4%) with his hurdlers at the track

 

3.25 - EBF & TBA Mares´ "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV

15/16 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
15/16 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 –  Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/16 – Aged 6 years-old
8/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Ran at Huntingdon last time out
2/16 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/16 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
12 of the last 14 winners carried 11-3 or less in weight
Annie Mc won the race in 2019

Sat TV Trends: 27th Feb 2021

This weekend the ITV cameras head to Kempton, with their newly-sponsored Close Brothers Handicap Chase their feature contest, while they are also at Lingfield for the Winter Derby and the Newcastle for their Eider Chase.

As always, we've got the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races - use these to help find the best profiles based on past winners.

 

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.50– Close Brothers Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

14/16 – French (8) of Irish (6) bred
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 11)
9/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites

 

2.25 – Close Brothers Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 -  Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
13/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/17– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – French bred
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 4 runnings)
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

 

3.00 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
13/15 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
12/15 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – French bred
4/15 – Trained by Alan King
4/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

 

3.35 – Close Brothers Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

15/18 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
15/18 – Rated 139 or higher
13/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/18 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
12/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/18 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/18 – Rated between 139 and 150
10/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Aged 8 years-old
5/18 – French bred
4/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/18 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Tom George
2/18 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/18 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Mister Malarky (9/1) won the race in 2020

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

3.15 – Vertem Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV4

16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
Crosspark (12/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.05 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

12/14 – Rated 96+
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had raced at Lingfield before
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/14 – Placed favs
8/14 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/14 – US bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Mare winners
3/14 – Trained by David Barron
0/14 – Winners from stall 1
Hareem Queen won the race in 2020
Royal Birth won the race in 2017

 

2.40 - Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

16/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
14/18 – Had run at Lingfield previously
14/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
14/18 – Had raced at either Lingfield (10) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/18 – Winning distance – less than a length
12/18 – Placed in their last race
12/18 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the market
12/18 – Won at Lingfield previously
12/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/18 – Won their last race
9/18 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (last 2 runnings)
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 18 renewals is 11/2

 

 

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Close Brothers Handicap Chase Trends

The Close Brothers Chase was first run back in 1988 and was staged as the Racing Post Chase until 2011 and then the Racing Plus Chase in 2012 & 2013. Leading bookmaker – BetBright – took over the sponsorship from 2014 till 2017. In 2020 we had another new backer of the race with leading bookmaker Betway taking over, while in 2021 the race will be run as the Close Brothers Chase.

This Grade Three handicap is run over a distance of 3m at Kempton Park racecourse the contest is often described as another Grand National trial, with two horses – Rhyme ‘n’ Reason and Rough Quest – landing both races in the same season, while it could pay to know that both those horses also contested the Cheltenham Gold Cup that season.

Did You Know - 15 of the last 18 winners were aged 9 or younger and finished in the top 5 last time out.

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at recent winners of the Close Brothers Chase and give you the key stats to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday February 27th.

 

 

Recent Close Brothers Chase Winners

2020 – MISTER MALARKY (9/1)
2019 -  WALT (14/1)
2018 – MASTER DEE (8/1)
2017 – PILGRIMS BAY (25/1)
2016 – THEATRE GUIDE (6/1)
2015 – ROCKY CREEK (8/1)
2014 – BALLY LEGEND (28/1)
2013 – OPENING BATSMAN (12/1)
2012 – NACARAT (9/2)
2011 – QUINZ (8/1)
2010 – RAZOR ROYALE (11/1)
2009 – NACARAT (10/1)
2008 – GUNGADU (4/1 fav)
2007 – SIMON (11/2)
2006 – INNOX (8/1)
2005 – FARMER JACK (5/1)
2004 – MARLBOROUGH (8/1)
2003 – LA LANDIERE (5/1 jfav)

Key Close Brothers Betting Trends

15/18 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
15/18 – Rated 139 or higher
13/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/18 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
12/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/18 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/18 – Rated between 139 and 150
10/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Aged 8 years-old
5/18 – French bred
4/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/18 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Tom George
2/18 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/18 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
Mister Malarky (9/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

 

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