Tyrrhenian Sea caused a minor surprise in the BetMGM Tandridge Stakes when comfortably seeing off Maljoom at Lingfield.
Given Maljoom won the German Guineas and was narrowly beaten in the St James’s Palace as a three-year-old, he has always carried a tall reputation. However, he has been hard to train for William Haggas and as a result has been lightly raced.
His ability has never been in doubt, though, and on his last run he was not beaten far in a Group Two on Irish Champions Weekend.
Roger Varian’s Tyrrhenian Sea (5-2) is something of an all-weather specialist and with his flashy almost white mane and tail, has built up a cult following.
Dropping in trip having been mostly campaign over 10 furlongs of late, Jack Mitchell kicked on before leaving the back straight and with Maljoom failing to handle the bend particularly well, the race was over a long way out.
Tom Marquand did manage to straighten the 4-9 favourite up to close to within two and three-quarter lengths of the seven-year-old winner, but the result was never in doubt.
Alan Cooper, racing manager for the Niarchos family’s Flaxman Stables, said: “He really enjoyed himself and looked happy back over a mile. He was given a very good ride from Jack.
“Doing that today opens up more options. I chatted briefly with Roger and he said to regroup in a few days when we’ll map out a programme.
“Obviously there’s Good Friday at Newcastle (Finals Day) and he holds an entry in the Lincoln, so let’s see what we think after a few days to reflect.
“The Winter Derby over a mile and three at Southwell just stretches him, it’s right on his limit. I suspect he won’t be going there, but all options are open.
“I suspect it will be more a mile than stepping back up to a mile and three.”
Varian said: “It was very good to see him win again, obviously that today back at a mile should give us more options.
“I can’t envisage us going back up to 11 furlongs for the Winter Derby, he ran well last year to be third but Jack didn’t feel he quite got home.
“Having seen him back at a mile I wouldn’t think that is on the agenda, so we’ll have a look at what is out there.
“He’s seven now, but he hasn’t had much racing and we’ve looked after him, he’s a real favourite at the yard given his nature and his markings.
“He’s run very good races in defeat so it’s lovely to get another win, it would be lovely to win a Group Three with him.
“If we stay at home there’s the Earl of Sefton, a Group Three, or the Bet365 Mile at Sandown, which is a Group Two. There’s not a lot on the all-weather for him.
“The races on Finals Day are handicaps now so he’d have a huge weight, which wouldn’t be ideal, I’m not sure what we’ll do to be honest. I’m just delighted for the Niarchos family that he’s back winning.”
Artistic Star can feel the benefit of his recent return run as he lines up in the Try Unibet’s New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap at Kempton.
The five-year-old was highly tried during his Classic year, finishing seventh in the Derby at Epsom before coming home third in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and placing fourth in Goodwood’s Gordon Stakes and the Great Voltigeur at York.
He proved a way short of that kind of level but after being gelded at the end of the 2023 campaign, there was some promise in his initial fifth in the Gordon Richards Stakes last April, but he was then off the track until running at Southwell in late November.
Given the length of his absence, it was no surprise to see him drop away at the finish after trying to make all against race-fit rivals, but that outing should have knocked off any rust and a 2lb ease from the handicapper is another plus in his favour.
Kiniro starts handicap life on a reasonable mark of 79 for Harry Charlton.
He was sent off a 100-1 shot on debut and duly finished down the field but he ran much better second time out when fourth at Newcastle in December before making another leap forward at Lingfield earlier this month.
Kiniro was a surprise winner that day, as he edged out a 1-6 favourite, seemingly with a bit in hand, and a repeat when upped to seven furlongs in the Unibet Zero% Mission Handicap should be good enough.
Naughty Eyes gets the nod in the Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Restricted Novice Stakes at Lingfield.
Winner of a maiden on debut, she could not follow up on her second start when letting down favourite backers as she trailed home third, beaten over six lengths after slightly missing the break and lacking a bit of pace in a five-furlong finish.
Having won over six, it perhaps makes sense to now give her a whirl at seven furlongs.
Ridin Solo can make his mark in the Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Handicap Hurdle at Catterick.
He has only once finished out of the places in six hurdles runs so far, taking home the bronze medal on each of his last three runs, most recently at Sedgefield.
His current mark of 105 looks competitive for Donald McCain.
Jarrive De Mee is of clear interest for Willie Mullins in the Go Racing In Yorkshire Season Ticket Novices’ Hurdle.
A point-to-point winner in April 2024, he got off the mark under rules at Thurles in November in a race that has produced two subsequent winners.
SELECTIONS
CATTERICK: 1.08 Champagnesuperover, 1.38 Jarrive De Mee, 2.08 Batman For Ever, 2.38 Ridin Solo, 3.08 Mr Mahler, 3.38 Sea Legend, 4.08 Dilly’s Gunner.
KEMPTON: 5.30 Sound Janet, 6.00 Egoiste, 6.30 Zeus Olympios, 7.00 Midsummer Music, 7.30 Kiniro, 8.00 ARTISTIC STAR (NAP), 8.30 Comte De Loir.
LINGFIELD: 12.25 Foreseen, 12.55 Naughty Eyes, 1.25 Merrimack, 1.55 Majestic Heights, 2.25 Raqraaq, 2.55 Lequinto, 3.25 Royal Observatory, 3.55 Rivas Rob Roy.
DOUBLE: Artistic Star and Ridin Solo.
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Billy Loughnane wasted no time in getting back among the winners on his return from Australia and is looking forward to a big year ahead – with a title tilt possibly on the cards.
The teenage sensation signed off his stint in the Southern Hemisphere with a win on Yorkshire at Wyong in New South Wales over the weekend, and quickly picked up where he left off by partnering 2-9 favourite Stage Winner to victory at Lingfield.
Asked about his time in Australia, he told Sky Sports Racing: “I enjoyed every minute of it out there, I had a great time and I learned a lot.
“Riding work in the mornings, I learned loads, especially with the way they do everything to the times and the way they train two-year-olds out there and gate speed, I learned a lot in that respect.
“Getting into position quickly is quite key over there, they jump and are sharp away from the gates and very much into stride a hundred yards into the race, whereas over here, especially on the turf, you can find your time a little bit more and get a position more easily.
“There, you’ve got to be very sharp and aware of what’s going on around you.”
Stage Winner secured a straightforward success in the BetMGM: It’s Showtime Novice Stakes for George Boughey, who has just expanded his operation with the purchase of new training facilities from Godolphin.
The Newmarket handler confirmed that Loughnane will be his first-choice jockey this term and they look set to form a formidable partnership.
Loughnane added: “It’s very exciting and I’m very lucky to be riding for George. We’ve got a really great batch of two-year-olds turning three coming this season and again it looks like we’ve got some nice yearlings stepping forward.
“Now that we’ve got a beautiful yard to train from as well, it’s definitely going to be a good year.
“I love working with George, I’ve been with him now since I’ve been claiming, he’s supported me a lot through the past two years and I’ll definitely be trying to pay him back.”
Having finished fourth in the table behind Oisin Murphy last season, the 18-year-old accepts pushing for the jockeys’ championship will be tough but insists he is “100 per cent” up for the challenge.
He said: “I’ve got a lot of goals again for this year that I’ll be disappointed if I don’t tick off. I’ve got a lot of goals to get done.
“I’ll definitely be going for it, it’s going to be very tough to be able to get up there with the numbers of winners, but I’m definitely keen to look at it.
“I want to try to beat my numerical number again from last year and try and get some group success along the way as well.
“There’s not as much racing every day in Australia, so I had a little bit more time to myself, recharge the batteries a little bit and in the gym every day, so I’m fitter and ready to take on a big season.”
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Lingfield are set to inspect on Monday morning ahead of their scheduled afternoon meeting after Sunday’s card was lost to freezing temperatures.
The track was due to host a seven-race all-weather fixture as one of two British meetings on Sunday afternoon but neither got the go-ahead, with Kelso also abandoned after minus temperatures.
More sub-zero readings are due through the night ahead of Monday’s racing and the team at Lingfield will inspect their Polytrack surface at 8am to see if the meeting can be held.
“The track is raceable as of 2pm today and we’ve called a precautionary inspection for 8am tomorrow due to the forecast over sub-zero temperatures overnight,” said Stephanie Wethered, clerk of the course at Lingfield.
“The forecast does look to be kinder to us than previous nights, however.
“We’ve been working on it all day today and we’ll continue working on it until we reach minus temperatures.”
Exeter, Wolverhampton and Punchestown are all also due to race on Monday with no current need for inspections, whereas Plumpton will inspect at 3pm ahead of their Tuesday card as the ground remains frozen.
Kempton’s Coral Lanzarote Hurdle meeting scheduled for Saturday has been abandoned due to a frozen track.
Conditions deteriorated rapidly at the course, as just 24 hours previously there had been no inspection planned.
Earlier in the week the problem had been flooding, but that had receded in time to make the course raceable by Thursday.
However, an extremely cold night which saw temperatures reach almost minus 7C scuppered any plans of racing.
Clerk of the course Barney Clifford said: “We’d just been waiting for confirmation from all the forecasts, but we’re forecast minus 2C again tonight and a high of 2C tomorrow.
“We’re not going to get above 2C today, it’s currently still sitting at minus 2.5C at 10.45am and we’re still frozen solid.
“It was an easy call because we recorded a minus 6.8C which, apart from a minus 11C in 2010, is about as cold as I can remember it here. Thankfully it’s due to warm up in a few days.”
A precautionary inspection due to “vagaries of the forecasts” will be held at 7.30am for the Saturday action at Ffos Las. The meeting was added to the schedule by the British Horseracing Authority earlier in the week.
Elsewhere, Friday’s all-weather meeting at Lingfield was abandoned following a second inspection and Kelso on Sunday off due to a frozen track.
Lingfield’s Polytrack surface was described as too lumpy and it was deemed there was insufficient time and temperatures to see enough improvement.
Saturday’s meetings at Warwick and Wetherby were others already lost. The Unibet Veterans’ Final, originally due to take place at Sandown last week and then moved to Warwick, will now take place at Market Rasen on Friday.
After an early-morning inspection, Kelso clerk of the course James Armstrong posted on X: “Sadly we have no option but to abandon racing on Sunday.
“We have now had two successive nights of hard frost and more to come. The track is frozen. Positive temperatures not likely until late morning on Sunday, which is clearly not enough time for a thaw!”
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Today’s all-weather meeting at Lingfield has been abandoned following a second inspection, while tomorrow’s card at Kempton is subject to an 11.30am review this morning and Kelso’s Sunday fixture has already been called off due to a frozen track.
Lingfield’s Polytrack surface was described as too lumpy and it was deemed there was insufficient time and temperatures to see enough improvement.
Overnight temperatures at Kempton dropped to minus 6.5C and were still as low as minus 6C at 7am this morning, leaving the track frozen in places.
Today’s temperatures are forecast to reach 2C before again dropping below zero overnight to minus 4C.
Tomorrow’s meetings at Warwick and Wetherby had already been called off.
After an early-morning inspection today, Kelso clerk of the course James Armstrong posted on X: “Sadly we have no option but to abandon racing on Sunday.
“We have now had two successive nights of hard frost and more to come. The track is frozen. Positive temperatures not likely until late morning on Sunday, which is clearly not enough time for a thaw!”
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Royal Champion proved well named when producing an excellent display to claim the BetUK Quebec Stakes at Lingfield.
A Royal Ascot winner for Roger Varian, the six-year-old son of Shamardal had most recently been seen in Australia and finished second in a Group Two for Anthony and Sam Freedman before being well held behind Via Sistina in the TAB Champions Stakes at Flemington.
Making his first start for new handler Karl Burke in the 10-furlong Listed event at the Surrey track, Royal Champion was always travelling kindly for jockey Clifford Lee as he kept tabs on Amy Murphy’s front-running Pride Of America.
Royal Champion winning at Royal Ascot in 2023 (David Davies/PA)
The Sheikh Mohammed Obaid-owned gelding breezed past Pride Of America with just under two furlongs to run and spinning the bend for home already had defending champion Tyrrhenian Sea trailing as Jack Mitchell began to get more urgent in the saddle.
To his credit, the Varian-trained chief market rival kept on chasing the 5-6 favourite to the line, but it was Royal Champion’s class that came to the fore as he was simply kept up to his work by his rider to register a convincing victory.
The winner is now set for a slight step up in trip to tackle the Winter Derby at Southwell on February 22.
Burke, speaking away from the course, said: “He hasn’t been with us that long, only four or five weeks, but he did it very well.
“He’s been working nicely and it wasn’t the original plan to go there, but he’s been working so well I just thought it was worth a crack at it.
“There’s not many races for him now, only really the Winter Derby now. So he’ll probably have a go at that I think.
“He’s going to have to go an extra furlong, but he wasn’t stopping and Cliff thought he’d get it and I think a stronger pace will help him as well.
“They didn’t seem to go that quick and he travelled very strongly and he’s entitled to come on fitness wise as well, we hadn’t done a lot with him for a few weeks after he travelled over from Australia, so I’m sure he will come on a bit.”
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Middleham Park Racing left it late to reach 100 winners for 2024 but ended up getting there with time to spare as Master Technician and Rebel Empire gave them a New Year’s Eve double at Lingfield.
The leading racehorse syndication company went into the meeting needing one more victory to hit a century and Rod Millman’s Master Technician duly obliged in the BetMGM: It’s Showtime/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes.
Lewis Edmunds was always in a prominent position on the 4-7 favourite and they hit the front a furlong out before going to score by a length and a quarter.
Rebel Empire later landed the £30 In Free Bets With BetUK Handicap in emphatic fashion at 4-1 for Richard Hannon and Tyrese Cameron.
Middleham Park director of racing Tim Palin said: “We’re delighted to achieve the 100. Obviously we’ve been panicking a little bit lately as to will we get there or won’t we get there and today was our last two rolls of the dice, so it’s great for Master Technician and for Rod to train that winner for us – and then Rebel Empire prevailing was the icing on the cake.
💯 100 WINNERS 💯
It was a close call this year, but thanks to Master Technician's victory today, we've reached 100 winners for the fourth consecutive year and fifth overall.
“Who would have thought 30 years ago when we first set up that we’d have a hundred winners in a year. I never thought that we’d have a hundred runners ever when little old Middleham Park started up in 1995 with Patrick Haslam.
“It’s gone from strength to strength because of a few winners along the way and the very kind support from all our owners – there’s over a thousand owners with us now and we’re delighted to have each and every one of those on board.
“We’ve got a fantastic team of staff behind the scenes, who work tirelessly and ceaselessly to achieve as close to perfection as we can on and off the track.
“So, hopefully we can continue the success and the rich vein of form that we’ve been in this year and then build on that and go from strength to strength.”
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Amy Murphy is eyeing a trip to California with Needlepoint after the one-time Classic hope completed her recovery from a life-threatening setback to win at Lingfield on Sunday.
The daughter of Blue Point looked an exciting prospect after winning on her juvenile debut at Chantilly in the summer of 2023 and connections were targeting the French 1000 Guineas in the spring.
However, it became obvious all was not well when she was being prepared for a prep run at Newbury and she did not run again until finishing third at Chelsmford last month.
Needlepoint was a 6-4 shot to go a couple of places better in the £30 In Free Bets With BetUK Novice Stakes and picked up well under 3lb claimer Frederick Larson to beat the 8-13 favourite Zip It Up – who been an impressive debut winner – by two and a quarter lengths.
Murphy said: “We’re very grateful to have her back to winning ways and it’s been a huge team effort to get her there.
“She was in her last gallop prepping for the Fred Darling and she came home and wasn’t right afterwards. The vets twice told us to prepare for the worst.
“We’re just very lucky that my team literally sat up with her every night for six weeks on a rota of four hours on and four hours off. She defied the odds shall we say and here she is.
“She was going to run in the Fred Darling in the hope that she was going to be a French Guineas filly, but at this point we’re just thrilled to have her back in some way shape or form.
“I think we left her a bit short at Chelmsford, she’s come through and got the job today and a big shout out to her owners (Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners) who have been very patient. They deserve every bit of success with her moving forward.”
On future plans, Murphy said: “She’ll go to Santa Anita next, all being well. There’s a couple of options for her in January, so we’ll make sure all is A1 and if it is then her next run will be in America.”
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Metkayina is set for an immediate rise in class after claiming the notable scalp of Diva Luna at Lingfield on Monday.
Ben Pauling’s Diva Luna looked a top-class prospect in winning a Listed prize at Market Rasen and a Grade Two at Aintree in the bumper sphere last season, beating the Noel Williams-trained Metkayina into fourth place on the latter occasion.
Diva Luna was a 4-11 favourite on her return to action in the Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 519 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, with Metkayina a 100-30 chance after picking up the silver medal behind Pauling’s subsequent winner It’s Hard To Know at this track four weeks ago.
Diva Luna set out to make all the running under Kielan Woods, but Gavin Sheehan was never too far behind aboard Metkayina in the Noel Fehily Racing Syndicate colours and her jumping was particularly impressive as she battled her way to a one-and-a-quarter-length verdict.
“I’m delighted with that. Diva Luna was obviously a very good mare to be taking on, but Metkayina had a very good run here the last day behind another one of Ben Pauling’s that has come and won since, so we were looking forward to running her again,” Fehily told Sky Sports Racing.
“I think she’s fine at two miles – she travels strongly. I see no reason to go up in trip yet anyway.
“We’ll probably go for a Listed race or something like that. We’ll speak to Noel (Williams) and see, but we’ll probably go up in grade, I’d imagine.”
Kielan Woods aboard Diva Luna after winning at Aintree (Bradley Collyer/PA)
Pauling was keen to take the positives out of Diva Luna’s performance in finishing second to a high-class and race-fit rival.
He said: “Delighted. We’ll get a lot of stick for getting her beaten, but that’s just what happens these days sadly.
“I thought she jumped beautifully, I thought she travelled really well and she was probably just vulnerable to one that has very good form herself.
“We don’t want to underdo the winner, she’s a very nice horse. This was our first run, she took a fair old blow turning in and I think she’ll come on a ton for it. It’s a great starting point.”
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A few weeks back I looked at some recent run style data in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. You can view part one here and part two here. It has been three years since I last looked at all-weather run style biases so, in this article, I will re-visit that topic and share the top ten front-running biases in terms of course and distance (CD) combinations. Well, my top ten anyway.
Data has been taken from 1st January 2020 to the present day with the focus on UK courses. I have concentrated on handicaps with seven or more runners which gives us a decent sample size for each CD. It should be noted that the surface at Southwell changed at the end of 2021 so for this course I have taken data from that later point.
Introduction
Regular readers may skip the next couple of paragraphs to the dashed line, as I explain the terminology and methodology. What we mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools tab, as well as an individual race view within the 'Pace' tab on each racecard. The research tools are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which Gold subscribers can use to undertake this type of research. Running style is often linked with the word ‘pace’ because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up within that first furlong or so. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable.
The stats I am sharing here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. The data on Geegeez is split into four brackets – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each bracket.
The numbers are really helpful as they enable us to drill down into them to build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:
Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front-runner.
Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).
Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point.
Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.
-----------------
Top Ten All-Weather Run Style Biases
It is time to start the countdown:
10. Kempton 7f
Over 7f at the Sunbury-on-Thames track front-runners have won 56 of the 289 races which equates to 19.4% of the sample. Hold up horses have won one more, giving them a total of 57 winning races (19.7%). However, on average there have been three to four hold up horses in each race (actual average for Kempton 7f = 3.54), whereas front-runners have (led or contested the lead) averaged 1.23 runners per race. This means that an individual front-runner has been nearly three times as likely to win as an individual hold up horse.
Looking at the A/E indices for all four run styles helps to demonstrate the front-running edge:
An A/E index of over 1.00 indicates ‘value’, so 1.25 means front-runners are good value. Hold Up horses, however, at a lowly A/E index of 0.6 have offered very poor value to bettors.
9. Lingfield 6f
Staying in the south we move to Lingfield. Splitting the run style results by A/E indices again, we see similar figures for front-runners and hold up horses at the 6f trip there to those we saw for Kempton’s 7f trip:
Here we have the more traditional run style graph sloping down from left to right when there is a front-running bias ‘in play’. In the graph for Kempton’s 7f, the 'mid-division' figure was higher than the 'prominent' one, which is slightly unusual.
At Lingfield over six furlongs, just over 20% of all races have been won by the front-runner(s). If, pre-race, you had predicted the early leader(s) in every qualifying 6f handicap you would have made a profit to SP of £65.05 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of just over 25 pence in the £. Of course, it's not always that simple.
8. Chelmsford 1m
This is only time a mile race distance makes the list. Generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias. Chelmsford is the only course to have four different distances in the top ten and is a very strong contender for the most front-runner favouring circuit. Below is a table comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group, as well as their each way stats, A/E indices and Impact Values (IVs):
As the table shows, front-runners are clearly best across all metrics. They have won over 16% within their group, which due to the occasional race where two horses vie for the early lead, actually means that 20.6% of all races have been won by these pace setters. The A/E index of 1.30 is the highest we have seen so far.
7. Kempton 6f
Back to Kempton now and the slightly shorter 6f trip. 21.2% of all races over this track and range have been won by the front-runner(s), and if you had backed them pre-race at £1 level stakes using your crystal ball, this would have turned a profit of £99.05 (ROI +30.6%). Compare that with backing all mid-division runners (ROI -36.7%) and/or all hold up performers (ROI -38.7%). If we look at the Impact Values, we see how strong the bias has been.
Front-runners have secured the highest IV to date, winning roughly 1.7 times more often than the average, while prominent runners have also performed well. Indeed, backing all horses that raced prominently would have returned a small 5p in the £ profit. In terms of A/E indices the front-running figure is high again at 1.25, prominent stands at 0.98, with mid div at 0.70 and hold ups at 0.73.
6. Chelmsford 6f
The second Chelmsford distance to hit the top ten is the 6f trip. Below is a graph showing both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
These are the highest figures seen so far for front-runners on both of these two metrics. Also, the hold-up numbers are extremely low in comparison. Front-runners have a significant edge at this trip winning a quarter (25%) of all races. Essentially an individual front-runner has been 3.6 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse.
Not only are the win stats powerful for front-runners but the each way stats are extremely strong for this CD as well. If able to predict all front-runners’ pre-race one would have made a profit of £80.75 to £1 win bets, equating to returns of just under 30p in the £. Betting front-runners each way, the profit would have stood at a highly impressive £150.93.
5. Wolverhampton 5f
The first and last appearance for Wolverhampton in the top ten is over the minimum trip of five furlongs. Here are the A/E indices over this CD:
This front-running bias is similar to the last two CD combinations but when we look at the potential returns, we will see why I have put it above those two:
Front-runners would have returned close to 50p in the £ to £1 win bets, while prominent runners were close to breaking even. Backing all hold up horses would have lost you a whopping 72p in the £. Going back to front-runners, they have been able to win from any draw position and middle to higher drawn front-runners have been much better value than low drawn front-runners.
In terms of other distances at Wolves, front-runners do have an edge over 6f here at the Midlands track (A/E index 1.19), while over 7f prominent runners have the edge and hold up horses really struggle.
4. Chelmsford 7f
The third entry for Chelmsford, this time over 7f. I have graphed both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group to help illustrate the strength of the bias:
Strong positive correlation with both lines virtually mirroring each other. Front-runners have provided excellent value, while prominent racers too have edged above the magic 1.00 A/E figure. It is hard to win over this CD when taking up an early position in midfield or further back.
It is also worth sharing some data for Chelmsford 7f when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map which was generated from the Draw Analyser on the Geegeez site showing the A/E indices:
Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, the front-runners drawn widest (the high group) have fared exceptionally well and presented far better value than those horses drawn middle to low. The win percentage stats back this up, too:
Nearly 30% of the horses drawn in the top third of the draw have won when they have taken the early lead. These runners have won 16 races from 54, with a further 14 finishing 2nd or 3rd. The long run to the first bend, which gives the whole field a chance to make the lead, may be a factor:
The last stat to share for this CD is that each individual front-runner has been 3.93 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse. As the heat maps above show this disparity becomes more potent the wider the draw.
3. Southwell 5f
This is the sole appearance for Southwell, and it is a top three entry over their straight 5f track. Let us start by comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group:
A very clear bias to front-runners and these figures correlate strongly with the A/E indices as shown below:
The 1.6 value for front-runners is comfortably the highest to date, while the prominent figure is the lowest.
It should be noted that front-running favourites have performed extremely well winning 43.9% of the time, while front-running second favourites are not far behind winning 37%. Compare this with favourites that were held up who have won less than 19% of the time and held up second favourites have won just 7.7% of the time!
2. Chelmsford 5f
The minimum trip at Chelmsford is second on my list but, to be fair, the top two CD combinations could have been reversed. To begin with let me compare the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
The A/E index for front-runners is huge hitting just under 1.7, while prominent runners have also performed very well. Indeed, if you had backed horses from both run style groups pre-race you would have seen returns of 46p in the £ for front-runners and 18p in the £ for prominent racers. Meanwhile midfield runners lost 36p in the £ and hold-ups 42p.
In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB), front-runners stand at a huge 0.67 (67% of rivals beaten), whereas hold up horses are down on just 0.40. Finally, front-runners that were in single figures (SP 9/1 or less) won 39 races from 109 (SR 35.8%), whereas those priced in double figures (SP 10/1 or more) won just one race from 58 (SR 1.7%). Clearly front-runners that have started in single figures in the betting have offered punters enormous value over the past five years.
1. Lingfield 5f
Top of the tree (just) is the 5f distance at Lingfield. The A/E indices show that front-runners have offered better value here than at any other CD:
If pre-race you had predicted the front-runner or front-runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a hefty profit to SP of £128.03 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of 86 pence in the £! All the profits/returns quoted in this article have been calculated to Industry SP, so just imagine what the Betfair SPs would have paid.
Finally, I want to share some draw data for this CD when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map showing the PRBs – again this can generated by using the Draw Analyser - available to both Gold and Lite subscribers - on the Geegeez site:
Front-runners drawn middle to high have ridiculously high PRBs above 0.70. In contrast, hold up horses have very poor PRB figures regardless of draw position.
--------------------------
Conclusion
The positions in the top ten for each course and distance are, to some degree, subjective and there are few ‘next door’ positions that could easily have been placed the other way around. However, regardless of whether my order is 'correct' or not, what is clear, is that these ten combinations give front-runners a strong edge. Conversely, hold up horses are always at a serious disadvantage. The flat racing pattern that we have seen before, where the shorter the distance the better for front-runners, has been in evidence again here with four of the top five being 5f distances.
Of course, in terms of each individual contest, the run style groupings cannot be calculated until after the race, because before the race we do not know who will lead, who will track the leader, etc. Hence any profit figures or returns quoted can only be calculated after the event also. When quoting the profits / returns in this piece my aim has been to highlight why front-runners are potentially such good value.
As we know, predicting the front-runner is far from an exact science but the pre-race pace/run style figures found on the Geegeez Racecard are a very good starting point. Indeed, just for fun I have started to check some results of the top-rated pace/run style runners at Chelmsford in 5f handicaps. Currently I have back checked the last 63 races, which covers two years, of which the top-rated horse has won 11 times from 67 for an SP profit of £11.28 (ROI +16.8%). An encouraging start.
For the eagle-eyed amongst you, the reason there have been 67 top rated runners in 63 races is because in a handful of races there were joint top-rated runners and hence both were included. Perhaps even more exciting is that, if you had placed a £1 reverse straight forecast on the top two rated runners over these 67 races, you would have had six winning bets securing a profit of £106.26. Betting the Exacta instead would have been even more successful hitting a profit around the £150 mark. This type of research is labour intensive as one needs to check one race at a time, but over the next few weeks and months I plan to slowly trawl through more all-weather track/trip combinations to see whether a profit can be made using the racecard pace/run style figures.
Until next time...
- DR
Post Script: Using Pace on Geegeez
In support of Dave's excellent article, I've (Matt) recorded a short video to illustrate different ways you can see which horses are likely to lead over these potent track/trip combo's.
And a reminder that our Winter Special offer - big discounts on both Lite and Gold subscriptions - closes tomorrow (Thursday). So go here now if that's of interest.
- Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/David_Marco.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-12-04 09:16:202024-12-04 09:16:20Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases
Thursday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh, Taunton and Thurles.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...
Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Taunton...
Taunton looks a bit novice-heavy for my liking, so let's head to Lingfield and some soft ground for six races starting with...
Leg 1 @ 12.35... (1) Chankaya probably needed the run at Uttoxeter four weeks ago when only 10th of 11 on his debut for Tim Vaughan, having ended last season eight months earlier with a win at Taunton. Should put up a better show 2lbs and one class lower and with the benefit of having had a recent run. (3) Just Chasing May looks like a horse on the up and has finished as a runner-up in both races this term since coming back from a 130-day break that followed his five length win at Uttoxeter in mid-June and he looks the one to beat here.
(5) Twp Stori is another who probably needed to pipes clearing out when running for the first time on over five months at Uttoxeter six weeks ago. That time he was a creditable 5th of 14, beaten by 8 lengths over an inadequately short 2 mile trip. Prior to thar break/run, he had finished 3212 over longer trips. he stays 3m2f, he gets soft/heavy ground and runs off the same mark as when second at Uttoxeter over 3m on his penultimate outing. (8) Getaway With You completes my shortlist here, despite being a 13-race maiden over hurdles. The truth is that he flopped when sent off as the 3/1 favourite in a 14-runner handicap over 3m1½f at Huntingdon at the start of the month, finishing 8th, 21 lengths adrift of the winner, but his previous form had read 3262 and he's down in trip here.
That said, Getaway With You makes the least appeal of the four and I'm going with (3) Just Chasing May & (5) Twp Story with (1) Chankaya my alternate.
Leg 2 @ 1.10...I was really interested in Plantaroma when I had a cursory look at the card last night, but she's a non-runner now, effectively making this all about the hat-trick seeking (5) Jasmine Bliss, who comes here after a soft ground Class 4 bumper win and another on heavy ground at Class 2 last time out. We'll assume she can jump (Harry Derham is no mug), so the only possible issue is her fitness after nine months off.
(9) Solid Silver is probably the one most likely to challenge of those with racecourse experience, also on hurdles debut. She made the frame in a Listed bumper almost a year ago and was in the frame in back to back 2m A/W handicaps this summer and was only beaten by a length and a half here at Lingfield over 2m last time out, albeit on the polytrack. Like the main pick, we take a chance on her jumping, but she possesses decent ground speed
We should also take a newcomer and the eye catcher is (10) Holloway Queen who was a runner-up in her sole PTP race, beaten by just a length at Monks Grange. She was then sold for the thick end of 200,000 Euro and when you see the names De Boinville & Henderson, there's always a chance and she might well be better than Solid Silver!
Leg 3 @ 1.45...This isn't a strong race by any means and despite an 8lb rise, top weight (1) Vision De Maine should be the one to beat, as he comes here seeking a hat-trick after winning over 3m at Uttoxeter on his chase debut six weeks ago despite coming off a six month break before a course and distance success here sixteen days ago. (2) Airtothethrone has only won one of thirteen over fences, but generally tends to be there or thereabouts, finishing 42F4F2324 since the start of March '23, mainly at trips similar to today (but does stay 3m3f) and mainly at Class 4 (so he drops in class here). he handles soft ground well enough and could well be in the mix once more today.
(4) Aworkinprogress also comes here on a hat-trick after a pair of heavy ground successes over 2m6f/2m7f. He won a Class 4 handicap hurdle at the end of March at Fontwell, then had 205 days off before scoring on his chase debut at Stratford almost six weeks ago and I fully expect him to go well again here. (5) Camulus completes my shortlist and he's another with a poor record from a win perspective, coming here at 0/1 in bumpers, 0/4 over hurdles and 0/4 over fences, but he was third on chase debut at Fakenham in February 2023 and a runner-up here over course and distance off the back of a year off in February this year. he gets soft/heavy ground, he gets today's trip and his 266 days off are shorter than the last long break he had! Throw in a couple of paced efforts over hurdles and there's a chance, albeit small, that he's involved here today.
Of those four above, Camulus is probably the one I should omit, leaving me with (1) Vision De Maine, (4) Aworkinprogress & (2) Airtothethrone as my 1-2-3.
Leg 4 @ 2.20...(2) Nachtgeist made the frame on the Flat in a Group 2 race at Cologne in June 2023 and was a runner-up over hurdles at Huntingdon in early October. Didn't go quite as well at Ascot last time out, but this race shouldn't take much winning and he was a runner-up at Plumpton in a 2-mile hurdle on soft ground in January, so the underfoot conditions shouldn't be an issue. (2) Speiriuil probably needed the run when only 7th of 18 at Chepstow three weeks ago, coming off the back of a six month absence. He's entitled to come on for having had the run and when you consider that his other five appearances resulted in finishes of 32242 on mainly soft and/or heavy ground, you'd have to expect him to enjoy this one.
(6) Stardhem was a nose ahead of Speiriuil in that race at Chepstow, as he made his handicap debut after an absence of 201 days. He should also improve for having had that run and the benefit of handicap experience and Ben Pauling's runners always command respect, especially here at Lingfield where his handicap hurdlers have finished 181121. Stardhem is 2lbs better off with Speiriuil today and although his form line doesn't scream winner, there's no reason why he can't confirm the placings with that slight weight advantage.
(7) The Cox Express is probably the one most likely to challenge the trio above, but he's going to have to step up a long way from last time out, when he too ran in that afore-mentioned race at Chepstow 22 days ago, finishing just 11th of 18 and 33 lengths further back than Speiriuil. That said, he had been off the track for six months and did make the frame in three of his last four runs last spring. he has gone well in the mud previously, but I think he's going to need things to fall his way to make the first three home today, so I'm with (6) Stardhem, (2) Nachtgeist & (2) Speiriuil.
Leg 5 @ 2.55...This one has fallen apart somewhat with five of the original fourteen runners now not lining up. The ones I'd be most interested here would be (2) De Kingpin and (6) Miller Spirit
De Kingpin drops in class here after a decent effort at Sandown on hurdles debut 18 days ago, finishing 3rd of 8, beaten by just a length and a half some 252 days after a runner-up finish on race debut in a heavy ground Doncaster bumper. I mentioned Ben Pauling's Lingfield hurdlers earlier and I'd expect this one to be on the premises too.
The main danger should come from Miller Spirit on his hurdling debut. Ground speed won't be an issue for a 4yo whose form on the Flat over the last six months reads 114241116 with that last defeat not as bad as it seems with it being the 23-runner, Class 2, November handicap at Doncaster where he was beaten by less than three lengths 19 days ago. He's clearly fit, his last five runs have been on soft or heavy ground and his yard won this race in 2022.
Elsewhere there's little appeal, so I'll just take these two.
Leg 6 @ 3.30...And the finale has been decimated too with only 8 of 15 going to post and the one I was most interested in (Dromlac Jury) is one of the withdrawal. Another of my overnight shortlist, Ascension Day, also won't run here, so I'm left with just three of my 'originals', namely (4) Barest Of Margins, (5) Hokelami & (6) Superstylin, so I'll be taking this trio.
Barest of Margins is a perennial placer despite being an 11-race (2 x NHF, 2 x hrds & 7 x chase) maiden. He has failed to complete twice, but his other nine races have seen him finish 24 in bumpers, 33 over hurdles and 22232 over fences. he was only beaten by two lengths last time out, headed in the last half of seventeen furlongs, so the drop in trip should help here off the same mark.
Hokelami looked like needing a run when 5th of 8 at Ffos Las last month off the back of a 202-day absence, but he had won two of his four handicap chases this year prior to his break, including a nine lengths success over 2m1f at Sedgefield on soft ground in March. He is, admittedly, still 5lbs higher than that win and has every right/chance of bouncing back into the frame here, but the one to beat is possibly/probably Superstylin.
Superstylin actually won this race last year by 4.5 lengths on his chase debut. He was then rested for three months before racing three times inside four weeks last March finishing 323 with the first two on soft ground. If he returns in the same vein after an eight month break, he's be the one to beat for me with my 1-2-3 reading (6) Superstylin, (4) Barest Of Margins & (5) Hokelami
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (3) Just Chasing May, (5) Twp Story & (1) Chankaya
Four jockeys were handed 10-day bans following the opening apprentice handicap at Lingfield on Tuesday, which was won in runaway fashion by Certain Style.
Certain Style’s jockey Tyrese Cameron sent his Laura Mongan-trained mount into an early lead which got bigger and bigger until by halfway the pair were 30 lengths clear.
Kyle McHugh on Gold Aura, Mason Paetel on Upepo, Warren Fentiman on Shaad and Chloe Lyons on Grand Duchess Olga all made their efforts much too late to catch the 22-length winner in the view of the stewards.
Former jockey Fergus Sweeney was among the officials on duty at Lingfield and told Sky Sports Racing: “We found the four jockeys guilty of failing to take all reasonable and permissible measures so therefore they all got 10 days.
“In layman’s terms they rode a misjudged race and we went for the entry point as they are all inexperienced riders.”
For Cameron it was a case of Christmas coming early.
He said: “She jumped well, but there was only one front runner and I didn’t really give them time to go fast and when I got to the front she was in a lovely rhythm.
“She was keen and free last time so I just wanted her to go her own rhythm.
“I didn’t want to get caught up wrestling her and I just wanted to keep her happy.
“Turning in I had a bit of a look and nothing seemed to be coming and she was still going the same speed, she stays that trip all day long.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/275496023-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-11-19 12:37:302024-11-19 12:37:30Four apprentice jockeys fall foul of Lingfield stewards
William Haggas proved the trainer to follow at Lingfield on Wednesday as he registered a Listed double in the two feature races on the card with Sea Theme and Doom.
The Somerville Lodge handler has a fine record in both races with the trainer notching his fifth win since 2017 in the BetMGM River Eden EBF Fillies’ Stakes when 6-5 favourite Sea Theme obliged in the hands of Billy Loughnane.
Little over half an hour later Doom gave Haggas his third straight win in the BetMGM Fleur De Lys EBF Fillies’ Stakes with the 5-2 favourite striking with real authority in the hands of Rossa Ryan.
Both fillies have plied their trade at a higher level in recent months and their trainer was delighted to see their class come to the fore and enable his luck to continue in two races he has enjoyed notable success in down the years.
Haggas said: “It’s been a good day and they have both been battling in a higher grade of late.
“It’s the end of the season so it’s quite difficult to know if they are still on song or have had enough but both of them showed up well today.
“They are both probably better than Listed level and they went out and proved that I thought. We have been lucky in these races over the years and they have been really good to us.”
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
Bangor looks too 'novice-y' for my liking and there are only 37 runners at Ayr in total, so we'll stick to the A/W again today and as we did Southwell yesterday, let's head for Lingfield where the polytrack is said to be standard as usual for...
11.35 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...
Obsidian Knight, Masqool and Forge Valley Lad have all won over course and distance and Obsidian Knight has a 56% (9 from 16) place strike rate on the A/W. Achillea won two starts ago and Star Pupil won three races back, as did Crafter, whilst bottom weight Moon Over The Sea has made the frame in 7 of his 10 starts this year, including two wins.
Three of the runners that caught my eye from a place perspective are on their last winning mark or lower today...
Sadly there's no real pace in the race today...
...so I'll rely on Instant Expert more here and take C&D winners (1) Obsidian Knight and (6) Masqool plus (11) Moon Over The Sea, who should offer more value than Achillea in the market.
12.05 Lingfield, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...
Turner Girl has been in the frame in 3 of her last 5 and has a 50% career place strike rate on both the Flat (9/18) and the A/W (7/14) and was a decent third of sixteen last time out. Sun Dancer has won three of her last five but was last home of seven over course and distance 11 days ago and has been eased a pound by the assessor.
This pair along with Glimmer of Light also seem the more likely from a pace perspective...
...and also from an Instant Expert angle...
(1) Turner Girl is the one I'd want to be with and with concerns over Sun Dancer's poor run over C&D off just 1lb higher last time out, I'll take the unexposed (3) Glimmer of Light as my alternate.
12.35 Lingfield, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...
No past winners here and three of the twelve are on debut. Of those with a run, (1) Al Shababi was a runner-up on debut four weeks ago less than a length behind a runner rated 95 who had already won at Class 2 and (2) Best Rate was third a week earlier. (7) Present Times has the benefit of two runs under his belt and has been both second and third so far and drops in class here.
Venezuelan drops three classes here and might be popular with his yard going so well at the moment, but he blew the start on debut and the three named above make more sense to me at the moment and all three are drawn high, which is often a positive here.
1.05 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...
The second division of the above race looks weaker and trickier to call with five of the ten runners making their racecourse bows. All five with a previous run drops in class and it's the first two on the card that make most appeal.
(1) Cape Breton is a son of Frankel, cost 450,000gns as a yearling and is a half-brother to To Catch A Thief who is a 3-time winner between 1m1½f and 1m3½f including a Class 2 handicap last time out. (2) Charming Life was 4th of 15 on debut at the start of the month and showed some early promise and a willingness to get on with things and he's a €400,000 yearling, Dubawi gelding and half brother to Opera Mundi who won a 7f Listed race in France as a 2yo this time last year.
A debutant often makes the frame in this level of race and to be fair it wouldn't take much and despite the fact that he's going to be a huge price, I quite like the look of (4) Gemmari. He's by Expert Eye and a half-brother to a few winners including Gemina who won over 7f as a 2yo, Gibeon a winner at both 7f and 1m2f and also Gendarme who won at 1m2f to 1m4f on the flat and over hurdles at 2m. All came out of the dam Gravitation who won a Group 3 race over 1m6f.
1.37 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
Final Voyage is sent over from Ireland for this one having a win and two places from his last five starts and was third over 6f at Dundalk last time out. Dual 7f winner Bobby Bennu is still relatively unexposed after just six races and was a runner-up last time out, a little unlucky to run into a horse winning for the third time in four starts.
Blue Prince has made the frame in five of his last seven and is a bold confident type used to running in bigger fields than this. Local Hero has also won two of his six starts, Cill Mocheallog has a win and two places from four, whilst Lady Dreamer has three wins and a place from her last five.
But my preferences here are (1) Final Voyage, (2) Bobby Bennu & (3) Blue Prince
2.07 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ fillies Listed stakes over 1m5f...
The bookies have only got four runners at 8/1 or shorter here and I think they've got it right. (1) Sea Theme (by Sea The Stars) was mid-division in the 14-runner Group 1 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes at Ascot, has already won two Listed races and her yard (Wiliam Haggas) has won this race in the four of the last seven renewals. (4) Scarlett O'Hara was second to Sea Theme in a Listed race at Clairefontaine back in July. She was beaten by 4.5 lengths that day and might get closer here now 3lbs better off.
(10) Madame Celeste won over a mile at Dundalk on debut almost a year ago and has since been a Group 3 runner-up beaten by a neck at Naas and suffered a similar fate behind Bellezza in the Diamond Stakes at Dundalk over 1m2½f seven weeks ago on her last run. She likes to race prominently and it is hoped that first time blinkers do the trick here. (11) Meribella is also by Sea The Stars and has won at 7f and 1m4f, winning over the longer trip at the Doncaster St leger meeting two months ago on her last run, beating the useful filly Cabrera by a short head.
I agree with the bookies that Scarlett O'Hara is probably the most vulnerable of the four, so she's the one I'll omit as I go with (1) Sea Theme, (10) Madame Celeste & (11) Meribella for the finale.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Obsidian Knight, (6) Masqool & (11) Moon Over The Sea
Leg 2: (1) Turner Girl & (3) Glimmer of Light
Leg 3: (1) Al Shababi, (2) Best Rate & (7) Present Times
Leg 4: (1) Cape Breton, (2) Charming Life & (4) Gemmari
Leg 5: (1) Final Voyage, (2) Bobby Bennu & (3) Blue Prince
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