Tag Archive for: London Racing Club

LRC Cheltenham Preview Night 2026

/in , /by

It was with the usual excitement that I headed west from Hackney to the monied enclaves of Kensington for an evening of Cheltenham chat with a panel of bona fide experts at the London Racing Club's annual Cheltenham Festival Preview night.

The panel was comprised of Racing TV's 'Road to Cheltenham' voice, Lydia Hislop (LH); stats, trends and form judge, Matt Tombs (MT); BetVictor rep and co-host of Sky Sports Racing's Friday night show, Sam Boswell (SB); with LRC President and Racing Post chief correspondent Lee Mottershead (LM) doing the steering.

Below is my impression of their thoughts, hopefully faithfully reproduced.

[NB Since the evening a few non-runners have emerged - note those as you scan through...]

Tuesday

Supreme

LH – Strong Supreme. It might be that Willie Mullins horses step forward notably here?

Will be strongly run race. Mighty Park has a bit to prove.

Talk The Talk jumped better at DRF but quicker ground may put hurdling under pressure – jumping improving, made up ground off slow pace impressively.

MT – Old Park Star most likely winner but his price is tight enough.

Think TTT should run in Turners.

Against El Cairos.

Sober Glory interesting but might need to lead. Leader d’Allier is a Townend connection. He could be value.

So too Idaho Sun, who beat Mydaddypaddy on merit in Formby. Strongly run race should suit, each-way price.

SB – OPS will be taken on by bookmakers on the day. Idaho Sun is the wise guy horse – each-way angle into the race.

Arkle

SB – Kopek des Bordes worst result of the week right now, don’t really get the weakness of Lulamba.

MT – Once raced horses can win the Arkle. 2/8 this century and two others were no-hopers. Irish Arkle may have left a mark on Kargese / Romeo Coolio.

LH – Very deep Arkle. Lulamba very good but vulnerable. Which are likely to be QMCC contenders next year? KdB, maybe Kargese. But Lulamba / Romeo Coolio look more like King George types. Prefer KdB.

LM – If there was still a 2m4f G1, Lulamba / Romeo Coolio would be in there. So the race changes seem to be working.

Champion Hurdle

LH – Lossiemouth might go this way and could wear cheekpieces if she does (acc. to Rich Ricci). Brighterdaysahead & Lossiemouth might have had hard races at DRF (93% finishing speed). Golden Ace looks sure to run her race.

SB – The New Lion won’t be favourite on the day if Lossie runs. Not sure about his jumping at championship speed. Poniros might be the angle.

MT – Not sure Lossie will run. Don’t think she looks happy in fast run 2m. Want to take on TNL, unknown quantity. Opposable at the price. Backed BDA but cooled a bit, hard race LTO. Might have a stab at Alexei at big price.

Tuesday Handicaps

LH – "Iroko wins the Ultima". Think he’s got a very strong chance.

SB – Western Junior playable for the Fred Winter if landing there.

Wednesday

Queen Mother Champion Chase

LH – Big prices: Libberty Hunter and Only By Night if they go this way. Non-runner no bet (NRNB).

MT – Jonbon probably not running in QMCC. Cannot have L'eau du Sed or Il Etait Temps. Freshness angle totally overplayed with the former. In the 'without Majborough' market, Quilixios goes well fresh.

SB – Majborough might be a be tricky watch at odds-on. Have a look at the 'without' market at the big prices.

Turners

MT – Mighty Park should maybe come here because easier to win Turners off one run. Didn’t hit the line that hard on his debut. This race is perfect for Talk The Talk; if not TTT, King Rasko Grey and/or Skylight Hustle. Mullins first string often wins, but his other runners have never won this race.

LH– Mighty Park never been under pressure at a hurdle, so this might be the race for him. Quite keen on No Drama This End and prefer Skylight Hustel over Ballyfad. But no strong view.

SB – Feel like No Drama This End might drift on the day, seems to be a weakness around Paul Nicholls' horses these days. Doctor Steinberg: traders thought he’d come here rather than Albert Bartlett.

Brown Advisory

SB – Final Demand looks short against The Big Westerner. Wendigo might be nap of the meeting. Tactically made for this race, think he’s a cracking horse.

LH – Not attracted by Final Demand. Can’t have Romeo Coolio at 3m1f. This race is now ½f further and over one more fence. Koktail Divin won’t stay. Like The Big Westerner ("really good chance") and Wendigo from last year’s Albert Bartlett.

MT – Not Final Demand. WPM not happy with him all season apparently. Don’t like headgear / Kaid d’Authie. Western Fold could run well on decent ground but he’s vulnerable to an improver. Oscar’s Brother a possible, but agree that The Big Westerner & Wendigo look value.

Cross Country

MT – Favori de Champdou looks good, won Trials Day race and goes on any ground. Stumptown might still have his hard Velka Pardubicka run in his legs. Favori de Champdou looks the most likely winner of a handicap all week.

Other races

LH – Grand Annual– Henry de Bromhead (HdB) Inthepocket and possibly Downmexicoway. Jazzy Matty could defend his crown though repeat winners are rare. Libberty Hunter also on the radar.

SB – Champion Bumper – Bass Huntermight run well, and maybe Wilde's Legacy.

Thursday

Mares' Hurdle

SB – Lossiemouth will be very short if she comes here. Wodhooh short if Lossie goes Champion Hurdle.

LH – Jade de Grugy is the bet NRNB. Only runs here if Lossie goes CH. Comparable form to Wodhooh. Lossie was a bit flat in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time.

MT – Back Jade de Grugy NRNB here andfor the Mares' Chase. Gordon Elliott apparently makes Wodhooh his nap of the meeting.

Stayers’ Hurdle

LH – Fascinating race. Teahupoo too short but no worries re ground. Honesty Policy progressive but long walk form not great; Kabral du Mathan may have too much pace for 3m. Bob Olinger still has a chance even aged 11: Cheltenham and drying ground will suit. Coming round to Ma Shantou. Cannot have Ballyburn for anything: he just seems out of love with the game.

MT – Largely agree with LH. Want to take on the old guard with three young guns. Not keen on Kabral du Mathan. Honesty Policy has achieved a lot in a short time – has star potential but missed his prep race (Boyne Hurdle). Also warming to Ma Shantou, who’s still a touch of value for the Paisley Park yard of Emma Lavelle.

SB – Been too dismissive of Ma Shantou who looks playable e/w. Bob O will be thereabouts again.

Ryanair

LH – Think Fact To File runs here and Gaelic Warrior goes Gold Cup. Really impressed with FtF in the Irish Gold Cup. Whichever of FtF/GW turns up here probably wins. Banbridge has a chance but not of the calibre of FtF/GW.

MT – Banbridge clear pick behind FtF/GW. Banbridge could be e/w against the top of the market.

Other races

SB – Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle – Old School Outlaw negative vibes but Gordon Elliott adamant she's fine. Bambino Fever could end up a bit of a punter banker for Thursday. La Conquiere interesting e/w at a big price.

LH – Charme de Faust probably coming here. Don’t see the argument for Bambino Fever to beat Old School Outlaw after their run last time. Good race, other players in here. OSO if trainer is happy with her.

Jack Richards

LH - Meetmebythesea “best bet of the meeting”. Trainer Ben Pauling didn’t deny he has a great chance.

MT – Regent’s Stroll if Harry Cobden rides. Almost always a top of the market race where a G1 horse emerges. Look for the class horse in the field.

LH – Kim Muir - Waterford Whispers / Uhavemeinstitches

Pertemps- Supremely West and Gowel Road may be a value bet on the day.

Friday

Gold Cup

MT – Strongly feel Inothewayurthinkin will not win. Don’t fancy Galopin Des Champs either. Gaelic Warrior might be too keen to get home. Don’t fancy Haiti Couleurs, hasn’t got form to think he can win at this level.

Grey Dawning not impossible off a quiet prep. Like Jango Baie and The Jukebox Man. Jango Baie looks like he will improve for step up in trip. Similarly TJM but trainer was targeting the King George this season.

LH – Complex race. McManus horses: cannot see Inotheway being good enough to defend his title. Spillane’s Tower may be aimed at Grand National. So could Fact To File run here?

GdC probably too old but could still be good enough to make the frame if wearing cheekpieces. GW has the talent but he’s a complicated ride. Haiti Couleurs is not good enough. Jango / TJM look the pair to focus on. Love how TJM managed to win King George in spite of the poorest jump of the principals at the last. Fastorslow not totally impossible to imagine him running a nice race at a big price.

SB – Jango Baie at Ascot this season was “a wow moment”. Envoi Allen might shorten.

Triumph

LH – No idea!

MT – Was Narciso Has an outstanding hurdler here? If so, can see why Proactif / Selma de Vary are at the top of the betting. But if not... the British horses are probably underrated. Minella Study looks some value based on his form.

SB – Backed Selma and happy to roll with that.

Albert Bartlett

SB – Kripticjim has a chance at 20/1.

LH – Klimt Madrik, chased home No Drama This End in the Challow, and King's Bucks for HdB, both have chances.

MT – Take on the top of market. Horses 5/1 or shorter 0/20 in recent years.

Two longshots: Moneygarrow looks like he wants this trip. Hipop de Loire wants decent ground. Ubetuba – Olly Murphy, ridden by Ben Sutton. Would be interesting if Sean Bowen gets the ride.

County Hurdle

MT – Karbau has good chance.

LH - Strong view from Ruby that Karbau is the one.

SB – Declan Rix made a strong case for Hello Neighbour – this is his only entry.

Hunter Chase

MT - Willitgoahead will benefit from stronger stamina test. Decent chance at about 14/1.

Mares' Chase

LH – Like Spindleberry but don’t love her prep. Dinoblue will need to improve and looks poor value. Really like Diva Luna. Ben Pauling very positive about her.

Martin Pipe

SB – Jump Allen prepped in a charity race so look for his entries.

Panel Lucky 15

SB – La Conquiere – Dawn Run, Thursday
LM – Munsif – Fred Winter, Tuesday
LH – Meetmebythesea – Jack Richards, Wednesday
MT – Idaho Sun – Supreme, Tuesday

Good luck!

London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night 2025 Notes

/in , /by

In front of a full house of keen racing fans, London Racing Club's brains trust assembled.

They were Lydia Hislop (LH), Matt Tombs (MT), Jamie Benson (JB), and maintaining order, Lee Mottershead (LM).

What follows are the notes I managed to make from their thoughts.

Tuesday

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

  • LH: Kopek des Bordes (KdB) will have to replicate his last race form. Bit edgy, and Supreme a test of temperament. By far the best horse in the field on what we've seen. Karbau is talented, each way or without favourite.

  • MT: KdB at DRF was a 'wow' race but a little worried about the preliminaries at Cheltenham. Won’t shorten much in the minutes before the race so that’s the time to bet him. Workahead e/w: Don't know his level of form but his last race has worked out, he did it well and is unexposed.

  • JB: At the prices want to take on KdB.  Workahead Christmas form looks strong.

Arkle

  • MT: Majborough "most likely winner of the week." Might be a very small field.
  • JB: Maj looks "bar a fall."
  • LH: Maj very likely winner. L'Eau de Sud opposable. Second best form is Touch Me Not if he runs here. Would quite like to see Only By Night in here, too.

Mares' Hurdle

  • MT: "My source has been backing Lossiemouth for Mares ante post". But what sort of form is she in after that fall last time? If she doesn't run, I'm against Jade de Grugy. Instead, split stakes between Golden Ace (Kingwell form is good) and Kala Conti. They went quickly last time, and KC, close to the pace, hung tough conceding weight to July Flower.
  • LH: Lossie is miles clear on form. JdG is a player. KC ran great against the pace at DRF and is perhaps the value.

Champion Hurdle

  • LH: Brilliant race prospect. Constitution Hill cannot be "better than ever", but his near best might be enough. Brighterdaysahead will be a tough challenger, might drift on the day, and she’s backable if she does.
  • JB: Constitution Hill is "your absolute made in a test tube" Champion Hurdler. Price would dictate whether CH or BDA is the bet.
  • MT: Believe Nicky Henderson will have left plenty to work on and expect CH to improve notably. The "vibes" feels like he's back close to his best. You can have close to Evens and that might look a very big price teatime on Tuesday.

"Shoulder Races"

  • JB: Fred Winter - Outforastroll/Holy See race is high-class form, interesting; Murcia also interesting here. Ultima - Farouk d'Alene (100/1 shot), small throwaway bet. NH Chase - Will Do weighted to go well and this should suit.
  • LH: Ultima - Farouk d'Alene does have latent ability, but Whistle Stop Tour from Lucinda Russell factory. Novice, strong stayer, form solid. No view in Fred Winter but like Gericault Roque in the NH Chase.

Wednesday

Turners Novices' Hurdle

  • MT: Turn of foot usually needed rather than stamina, but theory might not hold up this year. Potters Charm form may not be strong enough. Suspect Final Demand might gun forward. Think Irish form is stronger than the British. The New Lion form might be overrated. Perhaps The Yellow Clay is the one: felt he quickened and then got tired at Naas last time.
  • LH: Really like Final Demand, but a quick ground steadily run Turners might not suit ideally. Good stayer. In steadily run race, TNL a better option but TYC is a value play against both.
  • JB: TYC pick of top three, but James's Gate, rated 135, would normally be exploited by Martin Brassil in a handicap. Bit of a tip perhaps.

Brown Advisory

  • JB: Taking on Ballyburn and Dancing City with Croke Park. Dual Grade 1 winner, outpaced over 2m5f last time.
  • MT: Don’t think Ballyburn will stay, he's opposable - DC very likeable but might be vulnerable to a better turn of foot. Betterdaysahead will be annoying if he wins. At big prices, Gorgeous Tom is interesting, as to a lesser degree is Asian Master stepping up a mile in trip.
  • LH: On instinct, thought Ballyburn might be a very good 3-miler. Ground might not be that testing and Wednesday likely to be quickest turf. Poor value but likely winner. Elsewhere, Betterdaysahead is a proper stayer. Can see Gorgeous Tom argument.

Queen Mother Champion Chase (QMCC)

  • MT: Jonbon good enough to win a CC but overall not sure. Feel he’s 3 or 4lb less good at Cheltenham. Deep enough race - Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale, Energumene, Solness. Last named is fascinating, could be "this year’s Flooring Porter". Was going quick at DRF and quickened again when MN came to him. Against MN. 40/1 NRNB Qulixios thumped MN first time up this season; if he turns up he's got a win chance, never mind e/w.
  • LH: Jonbon is at his absolute peak this season. I don't buy the theory that he needs to go right-handed; rather, I feel that's a function of most of the British two-mile Grade 1's being run on right-handed tracks. So it's coincidence. His Cheltenham runs can all be excused: too aggressively ridden vs. Constitution Hill in the Supreme; beaten by an on-song El Fabiolo in Arkle (but he’s gone on from his novice form and El Fab hasn’t); seasonal debuts for Shloer so unlikely at peak (though his 2023 win is not far off his upper efforts); and in a holding pattern when a nervier type than he is now in rerouted 2024 Clarence House when also ridden sub-optimally by new rider. Lots of shorties have been beaten in the Champion Chase and I don't really want to bet him (or lay him!) Gaelic Warrior might have an issue in his throat (rumour) but would need it wet anyway. Found A Fifty might be overpriced. Suited to quickish ground. Energumene might be a backable price on the day with so many naysayers on the circuit.
  • JB: MN looks reasonable on his Supreme win. Blood Destiny crying out for a fast run two mile race.

Cross Country Chase

  • MT: Believe top weights will continue to dominate as they did when the race was a limited handicap previously. Galvin looks a fantastic bet. "Feel he should almost be an even money job"!

"Shoulders"

  • LH: Touch Me Not - Grand Annual.
  • JB: The Other Mozzie - Grand Annual. Bet of the Day is Colonel Mustard at 33/1 in Coral Cup.

Thursday

Ryanair Chase

  • LH: Il Est Francais will take them along, Protektorat in second, but it's a deeper race this year than last when Protek won.
  • MT: Could make a case for Djelo.

Stayers' Hurdle

  • JB: Most vulnerable favourite of the shorties is Teahupoo. Ga Law could run well at a massive price.
  • LH: It's become trendy to knock Teahupoo. Might end up a fair price. Expecting ground to be softer than predicted (watering).
  • MT: Traditionally a Teahupoo fan. But got a bit twitchy since. If he drifts, he might be a bet, but he’s short enough at the moment. Lucky Place is an improving 6yo with form that has worked out well. Just about the only progressive horse in the race. Looks very solid e/w.

"Shoulders"

  • JB: Nine Graces, Kim Muir - "Bet of the Day." Idem in the Pertemps worth a look.
  • MT: FeetofaDancer in Pertemps has a similar look to Paul Nolan's winner, Mrs Milner.
  • LH: Git Maker and Aworkinprogress interesting wherever they run. Galileo Dame in the Dawn Run if she goes there. Also Air Of Entitlement in that race might be ovoerpriced.

Friday

Gold Cup

  • LH: Galopin Des Champs just wins, doesn't he? Can win off any pace, on any ground. Monty's Star has upside: improved from a moderate start to season and given an end-to-end gallop he’s interesting. Don’t think Banbridge will stay.
  • MT: Think GDC will win, really hope he wins. But if there’s one horse who might do him for speed, it’s Banbridge, who definitely has a squeak. Want GDC to have a race rather than a procession. If Monty's shortens in the betting, that could be noteworthy e/w.

Triumph Hurdle

  • JB: East India Dock is hard to oppose. Nicky Henderson saying Palladium and Lulamba are tough to separate. So Palladium might be value. Slight worry that EID may not find enough up the hill.
  • MT: EID is miles the best horse on form and is overpriced even at 2/1. But how good are the Irish juveniles? 9 of the last 12 Triumph winners came from Dublin Racing Festival Spring Juvenile, only three won there. From that race, Hello Neighbour is 5/1, Galileo Dame 16/1 but there's not that much between them.
  • LH: "Palladium jumps like an entire!" EID has by far the best form and should be shorter.

Albert Bartlett

  • LH: Not got handle on this race. Wingmen seems fairly solid. TYC credible if he came here.
  • JB: Wingmen been crying out for a lead and this is exactly the sort of race he wants.
  • MT: Jet Blue won the best UK trial. Could drift and would be backable if he did. Argento Boy is a "now" horse. Has been a bit clueless but won easily last time in a nothing race. Paul Townend could pick this lad over Jasmin de Vaux.

"Shoulders"

  • JB: Woodhooh- Martin Pipe, happy Kopek de Mee goes here because he makes the price on anything else you fancy! Kargese - County, needs faster pace, which she’ll get here. Dangerous off 145.
  • LH: Strong on Kargese in County.
  • MT: Really like Woodhooh. Also Lark In The Mornin in County. Ryehill (Hunter Chase) is a big horse, makes mistakes but has bundles of talent.

NAPS / CHARITY BETS

  • JB: E/W Colonel Mustard - Coral Cup
  • LH: Whistle Stop Tour - Ultima
  • LM: Absurde - County
  • MT: Galvin - Cross Country

London Racing Club: Cheltenham Festival Preview Notes 2024

/in , /by

In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at the Kensington Holiday Inn last night, a panel comprised of some of the shrewdest judges in the racing game assemble to share their wisdom. They were Matt Tombs (MT), Festival stats man extraordinaire, Lydia Hislop (LH), multi-racing broadcaster of the year and presenter/writer of different versions of Road to Cheltenham, Paul Kealy (PK), Racing Post's best tipster, and Jamie Benson (JB), compere and representing the evening's sponsor, tote.co.uk.

Here's what they all had to say...

Tuesday / Day 1

Supreme

PK: Really like Firefox, especially if Ballyburn goes Baring Bingham or in the without market if that one runs here. Worries about the Henderson yard form put me off Jeriko de Reponet. [Of course, there's still time for that form to change]. Daryl Jacob is sweet on Mistergif at a bigger price.

LH: Tullyhill has jumping questions to answer but think he'll end up being the Willie Mullins #1 - this is his only entry. Firefox has a good chance, and think Jeriko might drift to the point where he's a backable price.

MT: Might play an outsiders on drying ground, Favour And Fortune. But really like Firefox and, if Ballyburn goes to the longer novice race, think he's one of the bets of the week.

JB: Mistergif a live outsider. Plenty of chat for him.

Arkle

MT: Don't fancy Facile Vega, or JPR One. Ought to like Il Etait Temps but he always seems like he's about to mess things up! Taking a punt on Hunters Yarn who looks a fast horse, and he's more likely to get away with a mistake at Cheltenham, where the fences are nowadays relatively easy. He just has lots of speed.

LH: Can see Found A Fifty being handy without leading, and performing much better as a consequence.

PK: Feel like Found A Fifty might want further. Think Hunters Yarn is the best horse in the race, he's top class, and is the most likely winner.

Champion Hurdle

PK: Very much like Irish Point as a horse though doubt he's quick enough to trouble State Man.

MT: Didn't think State Man could beat Constitution Hill, but he is a really top class horse in his own right and clear of the remainder of this field.

Mares Hurdle

LH: Will Lossiemouth stay 2m4f? It's not guaranteed. Marie's Rock, always thereabouts at this level, is a viable each way alternative.

PK: Agree about Marie's Rock, and Gala Marceau is interesting at a price if you can forgive the run last time.

MT: Don't think Lossiemouth will stay. She's a lay.

Rest of Day 1

LH: The Goffer has the right profile in the Ultima. Aye Right could be an outsider to note. In the Boodles, Roaring Legend will be a big price after his last time loss but he stays well and is tough. Batman Girac a very obvious alternative. In the National Hunt Chase, Salvador Ziggy has a great profile but did have a mishap in the American Grand National last time; been freshened up since then which could be the key.

MT: Like The Goffer in the Ultima, a top of the market race these days. Also like Salvador Ziggy in NH Chase with the same caveats as LH.

PK: City Chief in the Ultima but worried about stable form; The Goffer is better weighted than when fourth last year. In the Boodles, Gary Moore's Through The Ages, a half brother to Yibir, has class and could be better than we've seen. Broadway Boy is a good bet in the NH Chase, or so I thought - apparently he goes Brown Advisory. Can still be backed non-runner no bet (NRNB) for this NH Chase.

JB: Bright Legend in the Boodles represents the right connections (won with Band Of Outlaws) and exits "that" Naas race that has found the last five Boodles winners.

 

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Wednesday / Day 2

Gallagher (Baring Bingham)

PK: Ballyburn probably just wins if he runs here.

LH: Ballyburn likely wins in whichever race he shows up in. Predators Gold could be interesting at a price e/w but is a bit of a 'wise guy' horse.

MT: Second string Willie Mullins horse has never won this race or the Supreme. Handstands may be best of the British, trainer Ben Pauling apparently thinks he's better than Willoughby Court (former winner of this race).

Brown Advisory

PK: Broadway Boy form is very good, best of the UK contingent. Had a terrible scope after the Warwick race in which he flopped so that effort is excusable. Fact To File does look smart but Davy Russell thinks he may not stay this trip.

LH: Stay Away Fay could outstay them. He's a very likeable horse. Fact To File looks a brilliant horse but not sure this test plays to his strengths. Like Monty's Star but not his price. Feel like UK is stronger in this division than in many recent years.

MT: Want Fact To File to win, because he could be a good horse for the sport. But think he's probably running in the wrong race (the shorter Turners being a better option). Broadway Boy e/w NRNB a reasonable bet.

Champion Chase

MT: Don't want to oppose El Fabiolo who is short in the betting but not the wrong price. On drier ground, Captain Guinness could be ridden for a place at double figure odds. But think El Fabiolo is an amazing horse who will win easily.

LH: There's nothing to take on El Fabiolo though Edwardstone is a viable e/w bet in spite of the odd jumping liberty. Jonbon is a bit more careful at his fences but on soft ground might not be a play.

PK: Apparently they figured out how to ride Edwardstone last time... as a ten-year-old having his 28th career start! Don't really like backing 10yo+ in the Grade 1's. El Fabiolo is "a tank" and will be extremely hard to beat.

Rest of Day 2

MT: In the last five years, the top two in the Cross Country Chase market have finished first and second, and the third horse hasn't been within 20 lengths of the winner!

PK: In Coral Cup, Built By Ballymore will charge up the hill if the going is soft. Trainer Martin Brassil has saddled the runner in the race in the last two years. Ballyadam is interesting off a layoff in the same race. Love Libberty Hunter in the Grand Annual.

LH: Also like Libberty Hunter in the Grand Annual, and can see Saint Roi running well for all that his hold up run style is probably not ideal for the race. Davy Russell believes soft ground is against Galvin in the Cross Country Chase.

 

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Thursday / Day 3

Turners

LH: Ginny's Destiny may have been underestimated, think he'll run well. Gaelic Warrior is in danger of going the wrong way while Facile Vega has good Cheltenham form and enjoys soft ground. Want to see how the market evolves before having a bet.

MT: Connections might feel they have to ride Grey Dawning more aggressively. Gaelic Warrior might be a win only bet given his talent but also temperament. American Mike NRNB is reasonable too, though he may go to a different race.

PK: Ginny's Destiny might end up a value price on the day and could be a bet. Gaelic Warrior cannot go left-handed so against him. Iroko is a possible fly in the ointment: he's very talented but has been off a long time.

Ryanair

PK: Banbridge probably won't run/ surely can't win on soft. Can't have the 10yo Envoi Allen. Big field handicap form might be an angle which brings in Stage Star but Fugitif is big at 20/1 and also Protektorat at 14/1 is good value.

LH: Also likes Protektorat. Not sure how much pace there will be, so think Harry Cobden will be able to dictate on Stage Star. Can see the Fugitif argument, and Envoi Allen has proven Cheltenham form.

MT: Banbridge is the bet IF the ground dries out. At 25/1, Classic Getaway could be worth a try. Ran well early season and drop back in trip makes him interesting NRNB.

Stayers' Hurdle

PK: Teahupoo couldn't win last year so why bet him this? Crambo is progressive but he didn't beat Paisley Park and the old guard by much and PP is a bigger price. Flooring Porter would come into the reckoning if lining up here and, on very soft ground, Botox Has (40/1) would get a bet.

LH: Teahupoo is the young class and could easily win. Crambo up and coming, though Sire Du Berlais is perhaps not in the same form as he was when winning a year ago. He's 12 now. Quite strong on Teahupoo.

MT: Teahupoo is the one good horse in the line up. Not sure Crambo's form is at the same level. At big prices, might be worth a chance with Home By The Lee or even Good Time Jonny at 40/1: he's taking the same Pertemps to Stayers' route that Sire Du Berlais doubled up in last year.

Rest of Day 3

PK: White Rhino in the Pertemps and maybe Lord Snootie if getting a run. Farouk d'Alene would be interesting in that race, too, if getting a good claimer to take a few pounds off. In the Plate, Theatre Man is short enough but perfect for this.

LH: Letsbeclearaboutit in the Plate rates a bet. In the Mares' Novices' Hurdle, we're in for a treat between Brighterdaysahead and Jade de Grugy. The former looks the real deal. Dysart Enos will get weight from them as a non-winner over hurdles but Brighterdaysahead has very strong vibes in her corner.

MT: Not sold on Dysart Enos in the Mares' Nov Hurdle, don't the like softly softly approach ahead of a battle like this. In the Pertemps, Gabbys Cross has had a very smart prep and 12/1 is fair enough. Cool Survivor looks a great play in the Kim Muir.

JB: Will chance Apple Away in the Kim Muir.

 

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Friday / Day 4

Triumph

PK: Need to know how the Nicky Henderson form is before contemplating Sir Gino at odds on. He's looked great but that yard form is a real concern. Ethical Diamond is a very interesting Willie Mullins entry at 25/1 in a place.

LH: Ruby has mentioned Ethical Diamond a few times. Agree about the NJH form before considering Sir Gino, whose own form is excellent. Of the Irish, Nurburgring is vaguely attractive. Majborough is a very good looking horse and one for the future, but he might find the Triumph too much at this stage.

MT: Impressed with Sir Gino but feel he's sure to drift unless yard form turns around very soon. What Paul Townend rides for Willie Mullins will shape the rest of the market. Willie apparently said early season, "My Triumph winner got beat first time out", when talking about Ethical Diamond.

Albert Bartlett

MT: Nine of the last ten winners were double figure prices, this race being a totally different challenge to the small field bimbles most have entertained during the regular season. Like Johnnywho, but main advice is take a couple or three darts at appealing odds, win only.

LH: No strong opinion on this race, though feel Reading Tommy Wrong has a reasonable profile.

PK: "Johnnywho is the only one I've backed in the race"

Gold Cup

LH: Big Galopin Des Champs fan. It was a superb effort last year and, ridden positively, think he's the winner again. Things can go wrong with Shishkin (start, lazy mid-race), ground may be against Bravemansgame, while Fastorslow is a good horse but too short in the betting. Feel that Gerri Colombe is too slow away from his fences. For the frame, try L'Homme Presse - ignore the obvious prep over the wrong trip last time - or Corach Rambler - we don't yet know how good he is.

MT: As a racing fan, I hope Galopin Des Champs wins: he's the star turn and is a perfectly square bet at 6/4 on the exchange. But siding with Corach Rambler at the prices.

PK: Agree with Galopin Des Champs chat. Don't think the ground suits Bravemansgame, Shishkin and Gerri Colombe are the wrong price (not positively) and Corach Rambler is a very good horse.

JB: Could The Real Whacker be the forgotten horse? Not impossible in the 'without GdC' market.

Rest of Day 4

LH: Mares Chase is all about whether Dinoblue stays the trip. Allegorie de Vassy looks vulnerable, so if Dinoblue doesn't stay perhaps the Cromwell pair will emerge: Limerick Lace and/or Brides Hill. In the County Hurdle, Iberico Lord or Zenta - both JP horses - look a strong double act.

MT: The Betfair Hurdle form is red hot, so Iberico Lord could go in again in the County. Dinoblue looks good in the Mares Chase and think she will stay. In the Hunter Chase, hard to understand why Premier Magic isn't favourite. He is a very decent bet at 7/1.

PK: Maybe Lisnagar Fortune in the Martin Pipe.

 

CLICK HERE FOR OUR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL MICROSITE >>

 

Charity Bets

LH: 50 e/w Letsbeclearaboutit - Plate, currently 10/1

PK: 50 e/w Libberty Hunter - Grand Annual, currently 10/1

MT: 50 e/w Gabbys Cross - Pertemps, currently 12/1 in a few places

JB: 50 e/w Bright Legend - Boodles, currently 33/1

Good luck!

Matt

 

Getting Physical (and Mental) with the Hill’s

/in /by
Uncle Harry couldn't make it...

Uncle Harry couldn't make it...

I was at the London Racing Club in Gloucester Road last night. So were the Hill's: Lawney, National Hunt (mainly) trainer; husband, Alan, point/hunter trainer; and, son Joe, amateur rider and doubtless someday trainer.

Very pleasant company they were too. Coaxed and cajoled - not that much of either was needed - by Racing UK's Alex Steedman, our panel proffered forth on an array of matters.

Having met in 1985, Mr and Mrs Hill will celebrate thirty years together in September, a happy union that has produced not just young Joe - 19, and so clearly a chip off the old block - but also daughter Gaby, ear-wigging in the audience on this occasion.

It has also yielded not one but two training yards, adjacent, and with different license holders. Under rules, Lawney is the guv'nor, and she's a couple of nice ones to look forward to in the coming months. Between the flags, Alan continues to ply his trade with what seemed to this untutored eye to be a steely resolution, possibly even a stickler's perfectionism. He too has a pair of very interesting ones in waiting. More on both in due course.

As the banter to'd and fro'd, gently guided by MC Steedman, talk turned to ailments. Not the panellists you understand but, rather, frailties in equine stock. Hence the somewhat tenuous title of this 'ere scribble.

Specifically, there was talk of breathing issues. And how they're more likely to affect bigger horses, due to the fact that the nerve which controls the larynx runs from the right side of that area all the way down a horse's back, and then back up the other side to the left of the cob's gob.

So it is, apparently, that it's far more likely for there to be weakness in the left side of a horse's throat than the right.

Why would I be telling you all this? For punting purposes of course...

Because it can lead to a partial or full paralysis of the muscle, which in turn means it can collapse across the airway making for difficulty breathing. And because this was the background to a discussion about some of the various surgical procedures that can be undertaken to correct wind problems.

Lawney eloquently elucidated - with the occasional interjection from Alan - the differences between a 'palate fire', a 'hobday', and a 'tie back' (a more acute operation for more extreme cases). And there was plenty of discussion about the fact that these surgical procedures do not currently have to be declared to the BHA.

Given how material an impact they can have on a horse's performance, it seems an absolute slam dunk that they should be noted, in much the same way that a gelding operation is, on the horse's form record. That it is not surely contravenes the BHA's own guidance on 'inside information'... at least, there is a strong argument to that end.

For instance, I know of two horses that have had wind operations in a stable that I'm close to. I'm not at liberty to say which they are because they're not my horses. This information is still in the realms of "owner's prerogative", and in the information age, that's wrong. According to the panel at least. (I tend to agree).

So the fact that the likes of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson, perennially atop their peer group, resort to such intervention on such a regular basis can be seen as further affirmation to its materiality. The Denizen of Ditcheat is reputed, according to Joe, to have about 60 horses a year treated in this way, and it was conjectured that Hendo would likely have a similar number of palates sizzled and twiddled.

Joe went on to make a really noteworthy point about Nicholls, and one which might be widely known, but was a new one on me. He made reference to the positive impact of first time headgear on Ditcheat inmates. Now, as someone who has habitually dismissed headgear as a sign of desperation on doggy nags or naggy dogs, I had to look into this further.

Sure enough, young Joe is onto something. Here's the data, courtesy of those fine people at horseracebase.com:

Interesting...

Interesting...

 

Looking at the year on year data, it seems there might have been some sort of epiphany too. Judging by the increased samples, it seems unlikely to be merely coincidence...

 

Interesting... Very interesting

Interesting... Very interesting

Note the relative nothingness of numbers of runners and strike rate, leading to a general leakage of cash for backers, up to 2013.

Then, look, the number of first-time headgear donners trebles, and then quadruples, and profits emerge at the same time. For such a high profile yard, this is a weirdly profitable angle.

Drilling into the data for the past three years is perilous, due to the possibility of statistical insignificance on less than a hundred runners... but let's do it anyway!

Crikey!

Crikey!

Crikey! The fabled hood, settler of many a buzzy beast, has hardly helped Captain Pumpkin and his band. And yet the initial application of either blinkers or the pieces has produced winners at a 30%+ clip. That's in the context of a trainer at the top of his game, who has struck with un-accoutred horses 'only' 22% of the time. Yikes! Good spot, Joe.

But I digress. The gurgly-windy situation of horses struggling to breathe evolved into chat about its low-tech alternative, the tongue tie. Often no more than a nylon stocking tied around a horse's tongue - hence the name, brilliant, right? - to keep it from flapping about and blocking the flow of oxygen, the tongue tie was hailed as a wonder of modern design by Alan.

Moreover, he noted that it is often not on the first application that a horse derives the benefit. This, he opined, was due to the fact that a horse that has been struggling with a breathing issue will, at a certain point in its exercise/stress cycle, expect to encounter difficulty breathing.

Thus, it will recoil or otherwise act to prevent the struggle for breath. It is only by going through this mental barrier - see, there's the second bit of the (granted, inordinately laboured) headline - and realising that hey, actually, that wasn't so bad, a horse will be increasingly more likely to put the full shift in.

I wanted to look at this for data corroboration (I'm a bit sad like that) and, sure enough, Mr H is spot on. I'd heard it said before about wind ops that, for exactly the same reasons, a horse can often derive more benefit from the operation on its second and subsequent starts than first time after. (That may depend on whether the nag has been pushed beyond its threshold in training or not - some work their horses harder than others...)

Again, I asked horseracebase to show me the performance of horses wearing a tongue tie, based on the number of times the apparatus - OK, the stocking - has previously been applied. Again, the findings were instructive, and in line with what those wily Hill's were saying.

The chart below shows how horses wearing a tongue tie fared, based on the number of previous times they'd worn a tongue tie. So for instance A) 0, the first line, is for horses wearing a tongue tie for the very first time.

Tongue tie performance, by previous uses...

Tongue tie performance, by previous uses...

What's really interesting about this is that it seems, judging by win and/or place strike rate, that a horse will continue to improve for the application of the tongue tie for up to ten runs.

There is nothing to trouble the profit and loss judges in this dataset - not on its own, at least - but the conformity of the curve, and the size of the sample, means that the results look highly significant.

Incidentally, in case you're wondering which horses have had 131+ career starts wearing a tongue tie, the two that accounted for those 24 runs were Jonnie Skull and Cape Royal. As you might have guessed, I was!

What else did we learn last night?

We learned that Venetia Williams' horses don't have an affinity with rain, mud and heavy ground by accident. Rather, they're pretty much all turned out in a field - dressed accordingly, natch - every day, regardless of the inclemency of the elements.

Here are the data for Venetia's handicappers, by going:

Let's go mudding with Venetia's!

Let's go mudding with Venetia's!

Again, although the softies actually returned a small profit at BSP, more tweaking would be required to turn this into a profitable angle. But the respective strike rates speak for themselves.

Highest win rate on heavy, next highest on soft, next highest on good to soft... an interesting snippet to file in the data banks.

[We also learned that Alex would rather be a diary entry in Venetia's log book than read her entries, but that's a tale for after the watershed...]

And so, as the evening drew to its end, the inevitable, and always welcome, "giz' a horse" question was asked.

Joe responded with Brians Well, which runs at Higham point to point on Sunday (does anyone know how to get a bet on a point-to-point without going? If not, is anyone going?!)

Alan offered his 'milk bottle' horse - one for which he's been posting twenty's into a glass vessel each week prior to its first run - which, I hope he doesn't mind me sharing, is Harris Garden. No engagement as yet, but added to my geegeez tracker!

And Lawney told us that she's very hopeful for Shimba Hills, a stoutly bred ex-Mick Channon inmate, who has run really well in two novice hurdles, and now has a mark of 116 which is felt to be workable. Taunton on 5th February is the current plan.

If it's not too presumptuous or incongruent, I'd like to add my own 'one to follow' from the Lawney stable - remember she was flagged in this post as a friend to punters. Since that post was published, the nominated horse there, Changeofluck, finished second at 8/1 on its only subsequent start.

That one could win soon, but one that really catches my eye is So Oscar, a nicely bred son of Oscar, who was good enough to win a bumper just over a year ago. Since then he's been lightly raced, but qualified for his handicap mark last week when sixth at Fakenham.

A rating of 113 is far from punitive, and I reckon this lad will be winning soon on top of the ground.

So there you have it, a night with the Hill's. Engaging company, and some insightful pearlz amidst the bantz, as the kids might say.