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Double Dutch, 16th January 2016

Another good day yesterday as winners at 6/4 (adv 3/1) and 9/4 (adv 10/3) combined for a 16.33/1 BOG double and our fourth win in six days. The BOG part of the double is key, as betting at SP only returned 7.125/1, some 56% lower than advised odds. That's real money you can't afford to leave on the table.

As for the races, I expected Al's Memory to shade the opener ahead of Pacolita, the market agreed and the winner was well backed. Pacolita just about held on for second to secure a 4.3/1 bonus exacta for us.

Then some fiove hours later, over the water, the two best in at the weights finished first and third and as the longer of my two picks, Zylan, triumphed, our returns were maximised here.

Friday's results were as follows:

Al's Memory : WON at 6/4 (adv 3/1)
Pacolita : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
The Exacta paid £5.30 here
----------------------------------------------------
Zylan : WON at 9/4 (adv 10/3)
Strategic Force : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
784 winning selections from 2800 = 28.00%
244 winning bets in 725 days = 33.66%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1449.00pts
Returns: 1540.40pts
P/L : +91.40pts (+6.31% ROI)

Today's Selections...

2.25 Warwick

Isaacstown Lad has been a revelation since a switch to Nicky Richards' yard last spring. Previously 0 from 6, he finished 6th of 12 on yard debut, needing the run after 164 days off the track and since that day has won four of his five starts. All four wins have come under today's jockey, he loves the mud and has won over this trip (Kelso, November). In this recent run, he is 3 from 3 running within a month of his last outing and at around 7/2 BOG, connections will be looking for more prize money.

His main rival, Arctic Gold is available as long as 9/2 BOG with Coral and comes here seeking a four-timer, after winning three of his four hurdle starts to date. His latest effort was a comfortable 5 length victory on heavy ground at Ludlow 12 days ago, stepped up considerably in trip for his handicap debut. He's clearly progressive and still unexposed and could still be ahead of the assessor and should go well once again here today for a yard with a good record at this track.

3.40 Naas

There may well be 13 runners declared for this one, but both myself and the market think it will be a two-horse contest between Rolling Rocket (7/2 BOG) and Mount Brandon (also 7/2 BOG). the pair last raced when finishing 1st and 2nd in very similar conditions to today at Punchestown on New Year's Eve with Rolling Rocket prevailing by three quarters of a length on that occasion, overhauling Mount Brandon deep into the final furlong.

Rolling Rocket is a former course and distance winner, having triumphed here two starts ago, but if pushed I'd probably plump for Mount Brandon to avenge that recent defeat, now that he's not only 1lb better off at the weights, but has enlisted the servies of Barry Geraghty for this rematch. No disrespect intended to Philip Enright, but I think Barry might just eke a bit more out of his mount.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Isaacstown Lad / Mount Brandon @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor)
Isaacstown Lad / Rolling Rocket @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Betfred & Totesport)
Arctic Gold / Mount Brandon @ 22.8/1 (9/2 & 10/3 : Coral)
Arctic Gold / Rolling Rocket @ 22.83/1 (9/2 & 10/3 : Coral)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 13th May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 13th May 2015

I got a touch of déjà vu on Tuesday, as once again we'd a winner and a narrowly beaten runner-up. We had the second and third home at Wincanton, albeit some 55 lengths apart and our runner-up had every chance on the run-in but just couldn't quite get his nose in front.

This meant the race at Limerick was a pride salvaging mission at best and we saw Pyromaniac backed as if defeat was unthinkable and was sent off at 6/4 in from our advised 3/1. And win he did, as his past history suggested he might, but he only beat our other runner by half a length to at least gives us the satisfaction of a small consolatory forecast/exacta.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

I'm In Charge : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Days Ahead : 3rd at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Pyromaniac : WON at 6/4 (adv 3/1)
Totally Dominant : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
The exacta paid out at £6.60 to a £1 stake here.

Results to date:
572 winning selections from 1998 = 28.63%
179 winning bets in 518 days = 34.56%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1035.50pts
Returns: 1132.16pts

P/L : +96.66pts (+9.33% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Wednesday's quartet will include the 2000th runner for Double Dutch...

4.25 Newcastle:

Remember Rocky is one of those consistent types who always seems to give it his best shot and only failed to make the frame once from eight starts in the last 12 months (4 wins and 3 places). He acts on all ground conditions, although the good to firm was possibly a little quick for him on his seasonal reappearance last time out.

Nevertheless, he was still staying on and finished third, beaten by just a neck and three quarters of a length into third place at Ayr 16 days ago, despite coming off a break of 218 days. He's sure to come on for having had the run and with the winner of that race having already run and won again since, the form suggests Remember Rocky has a real chance here at 5/2 BOG.

You can make claims for and against a few of his rivals, but the one I'm going to side with is fellow 5/2 BOG chance Light of Asia, despite not running as expected at Windsor 16 days ago in finishing 4th, almost 6 lengths of the pace. There were some mitigating factors, though, as he was slow away and his jockey lost his irons for a while mid-race, so it maybe wasn't as bad as it looked on paper.

The Swinbank yard is in decent nick and has only had this horse for two runs to date, so there's every chance they'll get some more from him today and he does seem to like some cut in the ground. He has run well in better company than this in the past and although possibly better over a longer trip, if he gets away a little better, Light of Asia shouldn't be ruled out.

*

7.05 Naas:

This race is invariably won by either Jim Bolger or Dermot Weld and wit their respective runners holding the best form going into the race, I see little reason for that to change here today. Both Pleascach (Bolger) and Zannda (Weld) come here off the back of runner-up efforts in Listed contests and look in good form.

Pleascach was beaten by a length and a half at Navan 25 days ago on her first run for 9 months, but was half a length ahead of Diamondsandrubies who landed a Listed event (Cheshire Oaks) by 6 lengths at Chester last week, which puts Pleascach's reappearance in a favourable light if she can kick on from that effort. The bookies think she will and as a result have her down at a best price of 15/8 BOG with Skybet.

Zannda isn't much longer in the market either, at 2/1 BOG, and she was beaten by a similar 1.5 length margin in the Listed Pretty Polly stakes at Newmarket 10 days ago. She was outpaced late on that day, having led with a furlong to run and it's highly likely that the good to firm track was just too quick for her. Her two previous runs (a 2nd and a win) have both been on ground with the word soft in the description, suggesting that this progressive filly will be more at home here today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Remember Rocky / Pleascach @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : SkyBet)
Remember Rocky / Zannda @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Bet365, SkyBet, Coral, Hills)
Light of Asia / Pleascach @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : SkyBet)
Light of Asia / Zannda @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Bet365)

Double Dutch, 9th July 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th July 2014

I suppose after the recent run of form, it was only a matter of time before we hit a day with no winners. We weren't helped by the late withdrawal of Vedani from race 1. Not only did this decimate the price of Phase Shift, but it removed a real chance of victory for us. Phase Shift, to her credit, gave her usual gutsy performance but was outpaced on the run in and was beaten by two lengths.

Vedani's withdrawal did, however, offer us the lifeline of two singles 40 minutes later at Brighton, but Sagesse also finished second, being held off by just half a length by another determined Richard Hughes finish. Sagesse had drifted nicely out to 11/4 from our advised 7/4 odds and had she go home, we'd have almost broke even on the day.

As it was, we lost 2pts, but in light of recent results, we just dust ourselves down and go again.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Phase Shift: 2nd at 4/5 (adv 13/8, but 21/20 after R4)
Vedani: non-runner (adv 13/8)
---------------------------------
Sagesse: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 7/4)
Panettone: u/p at 5/2 (adv 11/4)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
283 winning selections from 1002 = 28.24%
92 winning bets in 261 days = 35.25%

Stakes: 524.00pts
Returns: 590.08pts

P/L : +66.08pts (+12.61% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

For the first time in a few days, I've actually managed to find a few races that would fit the bill for us today. I just hope that these are the right two!

4.10 Yarmouth:

Where there is a lot to like about Genius Boy. He comes here seeking a 4-timer and 5th win in eight races from a career reading 1243111 so far. His trainer has a great record here at Yarmouth, as does jockey Kieren Fallon and the horse is 4/4 on good to firm ground, 2/2 here at Yarmouth (1 over C&D), 2/2 at the trip and 1/1 at this Class. He's admittedly up in weight again, but the change of jockey is a positive one designed to get a little bit more out of a horse that probably hasn't quite stopped improving just yet and another good run is expected at 5/2 BOG.

The one he'll have to beat, in my opinion is Enobled and at 7/4 BOG, the market seems to agree. He was very unlucky last time out when twice denied a run at Sandown in a better race than this. Despite the traffic problems he endured that day, he still ran on well to finish in fourth place, just a length and a half behind Sea Shanty, who himself was subsequently fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot 4 days later. The way Enobled finished at Sandown last time out suggested he'll enjoy the extra furlong today and this could well be a cracking contest.

*

8.30 Naas:

A rare DD sortie across the Irish Sea is down to me struggling to see who could beat the current 13/8 BOG shot Vector Force, who impressed on his handicap debut at the Curragh last time out. He ran at the Curragh after three very narrow defeats in maidens at 7f and a mile, before dropping back to 7f to win at the fourth attempt at Dundalk in December. He then made that handicap bow at the Curragh 10 days ago and was beaten by less than a length into fifth place in a blanket finish despite not having run for 191 days.

His mark of 85 is unaltered and with natural progression and an expectation that he'll come on for having had a run, he's certainly the one to beat. He also didn't get a clear run that day in a big field where the first 13 of 16 home were only separated by five lengths, so a smaller field should help his passage today.

The main threat is likely to come from Derulo who might just try to make all, as he did last time out when winning here over course and distance a fortnight ago. He stayed on well that day to score by a comfortable 2.5 lengths and it could have been further. The assessor has, of course, had his say and has raised Derulo 6lbs for that win, but his jockey's claim is increased by 3lbs, effectively halving that penalty and if he gets out and grabs a soft lead as he very well might, then he may be difficult to catch and pass on this quick ground he took a shine last time. Win or not, he looks attractively priced at 7/2 BOG, which would surely have been much shorter but for Vector Force's presence.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:

Enobled / Vector Force @ 6.22/1 (7/4 & 13/8 : BetVictor)
Enobled / Derulo @ 10.81/1 (13/8 & 7/2 : Coral & Ladbrokes)
Genius Boy / Vector Force @ 8.19/1 (5/2 & 13/8 : BetVictor, BoyleSports & Stan James)
Genius Boy / Derulo @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Ladbrokes)

Double Dutch, 28th April 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 28th April 2014

We were a nose away from a 16.5/1 double on Saturday, as that was the margin by which El Salvador was edged out in the Listed race at Limerick.

Both our selections there were involved in the shake-up, but finished 2nd and 3rd behind Tarana, who just about did enough to hold on. This meant that our bookie-smashing win later at Wolverhampton didn't count for anything, unless you were playing the singles too.

There, Bold Prediction was backed down from our advised 4/1 BOG into a skinny 11/10 at the off and he stayed on to win fairly comfortably in the end.

Saturday's results were as follows:

El Salvador: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Inis Meain: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
---------------------------------
Bold Prediction: won at 11/10 (adv 4/1!)
Goldstorm: u/p at 9/2 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
220 winning selections from 771 = 28.53%
72 winning bets in 202 days = 35.64%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 400.00pts
Returns: 462.94pts

P/L : +62.94pts (+15.74% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Pretty mediocre stuff as always on a Monday, but there's plenty of races and each of them will have a winner. I "only" need to find two, starting in the...

4.40 Kempton

Both the stats and recent form tell me that this is Until Midnight's race to win (or lose, I suppose!) and at 13/8 BOG, you'd be expecting him to clean up here. He comes here on a hat-trick, including a win over C&D LTO. That was his only run here to date and his overall record on the All-Weather is two wins from three. He's up 6lbs here, but that shouldn't be enough to stop him continuing his upturn in form, since joining his new yard.

Of his rivals, I find Russian Ice interesting. She's got a fairly average record of 4 wins from 34 races in total, but she's 4/15 in handicaps over course and distance for almost 39pts profit. She last won some 14 months ago off a mark of 72, but then struggled with a subsequent rise in the weights.

She has been running well of late, though, off 68 and a further drop to 66 today should make her competitive. Irrespective of the doubles here, she actually looks a reasonable E/W bet today at 15/2 BOG.

.

6.55 Naas

Off to Ireland for another crack at a Listed contest after Saturday's near miss and my pick here is the 3/1 shot Maarek, who won this race last year and conditions look ideal for a repeat today. The going is said to be Good To Yielding and he's currently 2/2 on such ground. In fact, all 10 career wins have come on ground softer than good and further rain expected, he'll feel right at home today.

He's four from six at this trip (151211), including wins at Groups 3 & 1 in his last two runs over the minimum distance. he is unbeaten in two visits to Naas and performs well in this size of field (4 wins and 2 places from eight runs) and could well extend that sequence at the expense of Guerre in particular, who has undoubted talent and is very unexposed at this level. Unfortunately that inexperience might be his biggest hindrance today.

Otherwise, Guerre looks to be the main threat to my selection. This son of War Front stayed on well to win a maiden on debut at The Curragh last September, before heading straight into Listed company at the same venue a fortnight later. He was only beaten by three lengths into second place that day and you'd expect there's a lot more to come from him.

He's already rated at 102 after just two runs and if he's able to run well after a seven month absence from the track, he could well land this at 3/1 BOG. The fact that he holds several Group 1 entries suggests his team are expecting good progression this year.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Until Midnight / Maarek @ 9.50/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Until Midnight / Guerre @ 9/1 (6/4 & 3/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Russian Ice / Maarek @ 33/1 (15/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor & BetFred)
Russian Ice / Guerre @ 33/1 (15/2 & 3/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)

Double Dutch, 23rd February 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd February 2014

Back-to-back big priced doubles have banished the spectre of the week's earlier disappointments and yesterday's success came in at a very healthy 23.38/1, after wins for Woodford County at 13/2 and Activial at 9/4.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Woodford County: won at 11/2 (adv 13/2)
Goodtoknow: PU at 11/4 (adv 85/40)
---------------------------------
Activial: won at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Alcala: 4th at 7/2 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
162 winning selections from 562 = 28.83%
55 winning bets in 149 days = 36.91%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 294.00pts
Returns: 347.63pts

P/L : +53.63pts (+18.24% ROI)

Hurdling action from either side of the water today:

3.25 Naas:

Willie Mullins' has an excellent record here at Naas (33% in the last three years), particularly over hurdles, where he has a 38.3% strike rate. With that in mind, it's highly likely that he's going to take this race too and as I can't split his two runners here, so I'll take both!

City Slicker is a rare AP McCoy ride on a Mullins horse and is a horse in form, having won three of his last four outings. He was disappointing in the Ladbroke hurdle at Ascot two starts ago, when he was well beaten, but roared back to form when taking a Punchestown Rated Hurdle last time out. He's not exactly thrown in here, but looks to have a really good chance at the weights.

Vicky De L'Oasis actually looks even better weighted, as she receives between 7 and 11 pounds from her male rivals here, giving her an excellent chance to get back to winning ways. She has won five of her ten starts to date (Ireland & France) and the drop back in trip under a featherweight might just swing things in her favour, especially with the in-form Ruby Walsh on board.

The bookies can't separate the two Mullins' horses either, as they both trade at the 5/2 BOG mark.

*

3.35 Towcester:

After a string of indifferent (and unplaced!) efforts over the minimum trip, Join The Clan was upped in distance to good effect at Market Rasen last Sunday. Asked to tackle an extra mile on soft ground, he seemed to relish every inch of that 3 mile trip and was actually a more comfortable winner than the official margin of 6 lengths might suggest. he has plenty in the tank that day and if runs to a similar standard here today, the 6lb penalty he carries for that win shouldn't be enough to halt his progress. That's probably why he's only best priced at 6/5 BOG!

After that, there's not much to recommend from the rest, but I'll take Cadeau George as my next best for this one. He was a good second at 50/1 last time out, when only beaten by five lengths by a typically unexposed David Pipe stayer. He was only headed at the last hurdle that day and stayed on well enough to put himself 18 lengths clear of his nearest pursuer. Another run like that over a slightly shorter trip might see him push the selection hardest here at odds of up to 9/2 BOG with Bet365.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
City Slicker / Join The Clan @ 6.70/1 (5/2 & 6/5 : BetVictor)
City Slicker / Cadeau George @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Bet365)
Vicky De L'Oasis / Join The Clan @ 6.70/1 (5/2 & 6/5 : BetVictor)
Vicky De L'Oasis / Cadeau George @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Bet365)

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2014

As expected, Crowdmania won last night, but in a race decimated by non-runners, even the early BOG price only paid out at a shade over evens, far too short for SotD.

Our actual selection, Indian Landing, failed to deliver and maintained our current mini dry spell. The horse was well backed from our 5/2 advice and was eventually sent off as the 7/4 favourite, but was outpaced in the final furlong to come home 3rd, some 5 lengths off the pace.

We certainly got the value at the price we took, but that was as good as it got.

A familiar name to regular readers today, as we stay in Ireland for the......

2.45 Naas:

Where I'm backing the 12 yr old veteran Luke's Benefit for the second time in just under three weeks here on SotD and I've just taken 4/1 BOG about him.

He may well be approaching the twilight of his career, but he has never been running as consistently well as he is now and after winning for us on New Years Eve, he completed a hat-trick five days later over this course and distance on soft ground.

Former course and distance winners returning to Naas on the back of a win (anywhere!) last time out have fared very well on their return to Naas in recent years. Since the start of 2008, there has been 16 such winners from 46 runners, a strike rate of 34.8% generating level stakes profits of 27.25pts, an ROI of  59.2%. Those runners priced between 13/8 and 5/1 are 7 from 18 for 5.16pts.

The above figures aren't skewed by a particularly good year five or six years ago either! In the last two years, the record is 8 winners from 18 (44.44% SR) for 21.37pts (+118.7% ROI) profits  (4 from 7 for 6.18pts for those in our 13/8 to 5/1 price bracket).

So, that's the general qualifying stat for today, now let's look at Luke's Benefit and today's race in particular.

It's a 2 mile, hurdle on soft ground (heavy in places) at Naas.

1. He has won 9 of his 41 starts to date, but all 9 wins are over this 2m trip from 30 starts = 30% SR. This has returned profits of 17.86pts (+59.5% ROI)
2. His record on soft or heavy ground is 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 10.27pts (46.7% ROI).
3. And at Naas, he has won twice from four attempts for 4.83pts profit.

And from the above, we get:
Over 2m on Soft/Heavy: 7/17 for 15.28pts
Over 2m at Naas: 2/4 for 4.83pts
On Soft/Heavy at Naas: 1/1 for 3.99pts
Over 2m on Soft/Heavy at Naas: 1/1 for 3.99pts

His recent wins have been over the larger obstacles and it is probably over the reverting back to hurdling that let's us get a price of 4/1 BOG here today. But it has to be said that he's no mug over hurdles either, where he's 4/21 for 7pts over this trip.

He also gets to run off a mark a full stone lower than he would over fences, enabling him to maintain his front-running pace here. He'll definitely get the trip and the going, so I think the almost-featherweight he shoulders today could make all the difference to his bid for the 4-timer.

I'm very confident of getting back amongst the winners today, courtesy of a 1pt win bet on Luke's Benefit at a readily available 4/1 BOG. I've placed my bet with Hills today, but for your preferred bookie...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.45 Naas

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Double Dutch, 28th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 28th October 2013

I had one of those Eureka days yesterday, where it all just fell into place for me.

Double Seven duly completed his five-timer with a pretty comfortable 5.5 lengths victory at 7/4, which was then followed up by my 8/1 fancy Georgie in the second race.

It was, admittedly, a selection that could have made a fool of me, but...

...I'd liked the look of him all along and I'd backed him as a single bet before putting him in the double, which paid out at a juicy 23.75/1 despite him being backed right in to 100/30 at the off.

He cruised home to win by eleven lengths and to cap it all off, I'd both selections in a 150/1 treble with yesterday's Stat of the Day horse, which was a 5/1 winner.

I mention this, because I know many of you do put the three together like that.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Double Seven: won at 7/4
Laganbank: 4th of 6
---------------------------------
Georgie: won at 8/1 (SP 100/30!)
Pat Garrett: unplaced

Trial to date:
60 winning selections from 191 = 31.41%
18 winning doubles in 53 days = 33.96%

Stakes: 104.00pts
Returns: 113.93pts

P/L : +9.93pts (+9.55% ROI)

We've given ourselves some clear daylight and also guaranteed that the 8-week extended trial will finish in profit. The worst case scenario will be a small 3.93pts gain, but I've three more opportunities to turn the profits into something more substantial starting with these on a day where finding a couple of suitable races has proven difficult...

2.15 Naas

I've selected this race, because I can't see Rule The World failing to land this at 6/4. He was in excellent form last season, easily winning a Grade 2 hurdle here at Naas at the turn of the year where he eased down to the line and still beat subsequent dual grade 1 winner (including the William Hill Supreme Novice Hurdle!) Champagne Fever by some 40 lengths.

After that win here at Naas, Rule The World also went to Cheltenham too and there he got to within 4 lengths of The New One, which now looks like a very good result indeed. The only blot on his recent record is that he was pulled up last time out, but something was amiss that day and I'm happy to over look it.

My main problem here is finding an alternate pick, but I've plumped for another longshot in the shape of Seskinane, who was a non-runner 8 days when I nominated him for this feature!

Seskinane is expected to continue his progression over hurdles here today. He finished 2nd of 25 on his first attempt at Fairyhouse in April over two miles, before beating all fifteen rivals home to land a maiden at Kilbeggan over 2m 3.5f on soft ground seventeen days later. He was then first past the post at Sligo over 2.5 miles on heavy ground ahead of Willie Mullins' top-class On His Own, but was subsequently disqualified due to the actions of his jockey.

He tackles the same trip and type of going today, so there should be no stamina issues and his run last time out (disregarding the DQ of course!) puts him well above the rest of this field. I think he's the most likely to cause an upset of the five challengers to the favourite and looks a decent E/W punt at 7/1 with William Hill.

3.05 Galway

Where I'd expect the Ballydoyle trained Marchese Marconi to run out a fairly comfortable winner at around 6/4 (BetVictor). Simply put, I think he's the best on show here. He's easily the best on official ratings and with his jockey's 7lb claim taken into consideration, this shouldn't be too difficult for a horse who has won one and been placed three times from his four efforts at this trip.

As with the first race, it's a bit of a lottery to find a back up to the main selection, but I'm going to go with the 10/1 shot Rory O'Moore. Although is overall profile isn't brilliant at 4 wins from 20, he's a triple bumper winner who acts well with some cut in the ground. If anything, it's his jumping that has let him down in the past, so a 1m 6f flat race might well play to his strengths if the favourite fails to shine.

And although he hasn't been at his best over hurdles, he was still considered good enough to be sent out in races at Grades 1 & 2 plus Listed events last winter. If lightning can strike twice after yesterday's 8/1 winner, Rory O'Moore might well get home for us at 10/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Rule The World / Marchese Marconi @ 6.25 with Paddy Power
Rule The World / Rory O'Moore @ 27.50 with Bet365 and Coral
Seskinane / Marchese Marconi @ 18.75 with BetVictor
Seskinane / Rory O'Moore @ 88.00 with William Hill!

Stat of the Day, 19th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 19/01/13

Stat of the Day: 19/01/13

Stat of the Day, 19th January 2013

SotD's 'binary January' is the gift that keeps on giving right now, with a second nice priced winner in a row. Advised at 6/1, Akasaka was sent off the 7/2 second favourite and won with a bit in hand. In fairness, he was a 95 rated horses running against largely much lesser rated animals, and it showed.

Saturday's programme is decimated again, and so we'll stay over in Ireland for the heavy ground card at Naas and, specifically, the...

1.35 Naas

It's a serious longshot poke today, and of course, more likely to be nowhere than somewhere. But, emboldened by a couple of recent winners - and mindful that faint heart never won fair maiden (although discretion is the better part of valour!) - I'm tilting at the biggest price I've ever put up on here.

The horse in question is Maller Tree, in the Grade 3  hurdle. This fellow was tailed off last time over three miles, but that's not his true running, and he palpably didn't stay that day.

In thirteen runs in non-handicap company, Maller Tree has been in the bookie places on ten occasions. That's 71% of the time. True, here there are only two places to aim at, and there is an odds on jolly and a well backed second choice in Solwhit and So Young respectively.

But both of those have something to prove: Solwhit is a seconditis horse, which might bounce after his first run in around two years; and So Young is a two miler who has gotten away with further only in a very weak maiden hurdle and a three runner dawdle. (He might get away with it again here, but he's no price to be supporting that possibility).

Third choice in the market is Whatuthink, a  horse well suited by conditions but one which will try to make all. When he last did that against Maller Tree, the selection beat him by 43 lengths! Now that's not Whatuthink's running in fairness, but there remains a reasonable chance that Maller Tree can beat him again.

With Whatuthink and Imperial Shabra likely to take each other on early, and So Young normally prominent too, there could well be some throat-cutting amongst them this afternoon. If that scenario was to unfold, then the... 50/1!!!... about Maller Tree looks tempting.

It obviously won't last, but there's plenty of 33/1 around too, and that's fair enough. Each way at 50's BOG with bet365 the call, but do...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.35 Naas

p.s. I was tempted by Red Somerset in the 2.20 Kempton, whose recent record (ten places from eleven starts for today's rider) and price - 16/1 - is fair enough for a small each way tickle.