Tag Archive for: newbury horse racing tips and trends

Sat TV Trends: 1st March 2025

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We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.20 – BetVictor Super Boost Has Arrived Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 2 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV

13/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
12/14 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
9/14 – Favourites unplaced
8/14 – Aged 10 years-old
7/14 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
7/14 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
3/14 – Won their last race
1/14 – Winning favourites (none in the last 8)
6 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or less
Trainer David Dennis won the race in 2022 and 2023
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 15/2

3.45 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV

18/20 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
17/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
17/20 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
17/20 – Won over this trip (2m4f) previously (or further)
16/20 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
14/20 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
13/20 – Officially rated 139 or higher
13/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/20 – Favourites placed
9/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
9/20 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
7/20 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/20 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/20 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/20 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
3/20 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1
11 of the last 15 winners aged 7 or 8
14 of the last 16 winners aged between 6-8
No winning favourite in the last 7 runnings
Paint The Dream won the race in 2022
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Livescore Bet Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

10/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
10/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/11- Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11– Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/11 – Favourites placed in the top 2
7/11 – Irish bred
4/11 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
6 of the last 9 winners aged 6 (last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

2.40 – Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV

13/13 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
9/13 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
4/13 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
3/13 - Ridding by a claiming jockey
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by Brian Ellison
10 of the last 12 winners carried 10st 11lbs or more
The last 9 winners returned 11/2 or shorter
Homme Public (3/1) won the race in 2024
Calico (11/4 fav) won the race in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

3.15 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV

19/20 – Aged 8 or older
19/20 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/20 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
17/20 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/20 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
15/20 – Aged 9 or older
13/20 – Rated 132 or less
12/20 – From the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/20 – Irish bred
10/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/20 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/20 – Winning Favourites
9 year-olds have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Moroder (18/1) won the race in 2023
Undersupervision (9/2) won the race in 2022
The average wining SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1

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KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.45 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV

10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
8/11 – Had run at the course before
8/11 – Aged 9 or older
8/11 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
7/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Won over 3m plus in the past
7/11 – Placed 4th or better last time out
5/11 – Rated between 132-141 (inc)
4/11 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes (4 of the last 9)
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/11 – Trained by Sandy Thomson
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/2

2.20 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Aged 6 years-old
3/4 – Carried 10-4 or less (last 3)
2/4 – Winning favourites
2/4 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
Serious Operator (7/2) won the race in 2024
Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2021 (Flash Collonges)
Nicky Richards trained the winner in 2022 (Famous Bridge)
Dan Skelton trained the winner in 2023 (Santos Blue)
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 31% record with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Rebecca Menzies is just 4-72 with her hurdles at the track
Jockey Conor O’Farrell is 4-from-82 riding over hurdles at the track

2.55 – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV

15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
15/16 – Favourites placed in the top three
14/16 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
14/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/16 – Had raced at Kelso before
7/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Winning favourite
3/16– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/16 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
7 of the last 9 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

3.30 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

13/13 – Had run in the last 3 months
11/13 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
10/13 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/13 – Never run at the track before
8/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – Rated between 138-146
6/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/13– Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Richards
Cracking Rhapsody (9/1) won the race last year (2024)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

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Saturday TV Trends: 8th Feb 2025

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We’ve plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this weekend with cracking cards at both Newbury and Warwick. The Denman Chase, William Hill Hurdle and William Hill Game Spirit are the feature races at Newbury, while the ITV cameras also head to Warwick to take in three more races that include the Kingmaker Novices' Chase.

As always, we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends and top tips.

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl3 3m52y ITV

17/19 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
16/19 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
14/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
14/19 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
14/19 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
13/19 – Aged 7 or younger
12/19 – Carried 11-0 or more
11/19 – Unplaced last time out
11/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/19 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (1 winner)
7/19 – Aged 7 years-old
3/19 – French bred
3/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/19 – Trained by Alan King
4 of the last 9 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

2.25 – William Hill Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

17/21 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/21 – Rated 150+
17/21 – Aged 9 or younger
16/21 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
16/21 – Placed favourites
16/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/21 – Aged 8 or younger
12/21 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
11/21 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
12/21 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
9/21 – Winning favourites
9/21 – Irish bred
8/21 – Won last time out
8/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
7/21 – French bred
6/21 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/21 – Returned a double-figure price
4/21 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/21 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
2/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/21 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
7 of the last 18 winners were aged 7 years-old
Just one winner aged 11+ since 2000
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

3.00 – William Hill Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV

18/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Placed favourites
16/19 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
15/19 – Aged 8 or younger
15/19 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
13/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/19 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
12/19 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (6 winners)
11/19 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
11/19 – Winning favourites
9/19 – Won last time out
9/19 – French bred
6/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/19 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/19 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 4)
2/19 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Edwardstone won the race in 2024

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

3.35 – William Hill Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

22/22 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
21/22 – Aged 7 or younger
20/22 – Rated 130 or higher
19/22 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
18/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
18/22 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
17/22 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
17/22 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
17/22 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
17/22 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
14/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
11/22 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/22 – Irish bred
8/22 - Won last time out
8/22 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 18)
7/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 6 times in all)
3/22 – Owned by JP McManus (including 2024)
3/22 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/22 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 11)
2/22 - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 15)
2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 12)
2/22  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
1/22 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
27 of the last 28 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12.5/1

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Unibet Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

11/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Won over 2m fences before
10/12 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
9/12 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
8/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Rated between 137-147
3/12 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 8 winners have been 6 year-olds
Jonbon (1/16 fav) won the race in 2023
Edwardstone (10/11 fav) won the race in 2022

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown and 2024 meeting was called off

2.40 – Read Nicky Henderson’s Weekly Unibet Blog Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV

9/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
9/9 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/9 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
6/9 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
5/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Winning favourites (1 co-fav)
5/9 – Irish bred
5/9 – Had run at Warwick before
4/9 – Rated between 140 and 149
Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the last 2 runnings
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
Theatre Glory (4/7 fav) won the race in 2023

3.15 – Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) (9yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Shelia Lewis has a 44% strike-rate with her chasers at the track
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has a 33% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 29% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 24% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Jockey Ben Jones has a 32% strike-rate riding over fences at the track
Jockey Harry Skelton has a 26% strike-rate riding over fences at the track
Jockey Brendan Powell has a 25% strike-rate riding over fences at the track

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Sat TV Trends: 26th Oct 2024

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Loads going on this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham.

Yes, jump racing is back at the home of the National Hunt - Cheltenham - with a cracking card of which the first four races are LIVE on ITV. Then at Newbury, we’ve two decent Group Three contests to look forward too, while the LIVE ITV action concludes with three races from Doncaster that are spearheaded by the Group One Kameko Futurity Trophy Stakes - a prize that top Irish handler - Aidan O’Brien - has won a massive 11 times!

Like all big race days, here at GeeGeez we’ve got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkySports Racing)

1.30 – William Hill Prospect Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

15/16 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
15/16 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
15/16 – Foaled in February or later
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Won between 1-2 times before
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Favourites placed in the top 3
12/16 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Carried 9-1 in weight
11/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
8/16 – Irish bred
7/16 – March-born foals
6/16 – Winning favourites (3 of the last 8)
2/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
The last 4 winners came from stalls 2 (2) or 4 (2)
7 of the last 9 winners from stalls 5 or lower

2.05 – Join Century Racing Club Today Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV

20/20 – Ran 5 or more times that season
19/20 – Had won over 5f before
16/20 – Aged 5 or younger
14/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/20 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
11/20 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
11/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/20 - Carried 8-9 or less
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
7/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (3) last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Winners from stall 1
2/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 10)
2/20 – Winning mare/filly
10 of the last 17 winners came from a double-figure stall
Aberama Gold won the race in 2023
3 of the last 8 winners from stall 17
Note: The 2021 running was a dead-heat

2.40 – William Hill Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 1m ITV

19/22 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
19/22 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
19/22 – Placed favourites
18/22 - Foaled in February or later
18/22 – Finished in the top two last time out
17/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
16/22 – Had raced at least twice previously
15/22 – Winning favourites
14/22 – Ran at either the Curragh or Newmarket last time out
14/22 – Won their last race
13/22 – Foaled in either Feb or March
13/22 – Had won over a mile in the past
10/22 – Won by an Irish-based yard
8/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 wins in total)
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 7)
Trainer John Gosden have NEVER won this race
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 11 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2021 & 2022
The average SP in the last 22 runnings is 11/2
6 horses won the Derby the following season: Reference Point (1986); High Chaparral (2001); Motivator (2004); Authorized (2006); Camelot (2011); Auguste Rodin (2022).

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

3.10 – BetVictor Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

18/19 – Foaled in Feb or later
16/19 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
15/19 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
13/19 – Never raced at Newbury
12/19 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
12/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
12/19 – Favourites unplaced
10/19 – Won over 7f before
10/19 – Won their last race
7/19 – Foaled in February
7/19 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
5/19 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/19 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
1/19 – Winning favourites

3.45 – BetVictor St Simon Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

19/20 – Aged 5 or younger
18/20 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/20 – Had won at least twice before
17/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Had at least 4 runs that season
14/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/20 – Rated 106 or higher
13/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Had run at Newbury before (6 won)
12/20 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
11/20 – Placed horses from stall 6
8/20 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/20 – Won by a filly or mare
6/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of last 11)
3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/20 – Winners from stall 1
Max Vega won the race in 2022
Note: 2018 running was a dead-heat

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends ITV/RacingTV)

1.10 – William Hill Top Price Guarantee Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

Just 3 previous runnings
Trainers Nigel Twiston-Davies, Martin Keighley and Chris Gordon have won this race before
3/3 – Carried 10-13 or more
3/3 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
3/3 – Aged between 5-7
No winning favourite
Trainer Gavin Cromwell has a 25% SR with his chasers at the track
Trainer Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero has a 25% SR with his chasers at the track
Jockey Sean Bowen is just 3-41 riding over fences at Cheltenham

1.45 – William Hill Betting Done Properly Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo) 3m ITV

9/9 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Favourites finished in the top 2
8/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/9 – Top 3 finish last time out
7/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/9 – Had won over 3m hurdles before
7/9 – French or Irish bred
6/9 – Won last time out
5/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Won at Warwick last time out
2/9 – Won at Perth last time out
2/9 – Trained by John C McConnell
2/9 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 2/1

2.20 –William Hill Committed To Top Priced Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

15/17 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
15/17 – Won over at least 3m previously
13/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
12/17 – First run of the season
12/17 – Irish bred winners
11/17 – Favourites unplaced
10/17 – Rated 134 or higher
10/17 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/17 - Had won at Cheltenham previously
8/17 – Unplaced in their last race
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/17 – Winning Favourites (none in the last 10)
2 of the last 3 winners Irish trained
Whacker Clan (12/1) won the race in 2023

2.55 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

11/15 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
10/15 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
10/15 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
9/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
7/15 – Irish Bred
6/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites (2 of the last 7)
2/15 – Mare winners
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
4 of the last 9 winners ridden by a claimer
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or more
Nicky Henderson has trained the winner in 2023 and 2017 (both Nico de Boinvile-ridden)

3.30 - Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

11/15 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
11/15 - Had won 2 or less times over hurdles
9/15 – Placed in their last race
9/15 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
6/15 – Favourites placed
5/15 – Irish bred winners
4/15 – Irish-trained winners
4/15 – Winning favourites (just 1 in the last 10)
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 5 and both ridden by Harry Cobden)
Gordon Elliott has won the race twice since 2014
Just 1 winning favourite in last 10 runnings
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Sat TV Trends: 17th Aug 2024

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We’ve got all the trends & stats you need ahead of the LIVE ITV action from Ripon, Newbury and Newmarket this Saturday.

Up at Ripon, it’s one of their biggest days with the competitive William Hill-sponsored Great St Wilfrid Handicap - a race that 16 of the last 22 winners were aged between 4-6 years-old.

Then at Newbury the Group Two Hungerford Stakes is one of their features - a contest that’s seen 13 of the last 15 winners were all draw 6 or lower.

Finally, the ITV cameras are also at Newmarket to take in the unique grey horse handicap.

We’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered with key trends - use these to find the best profiles based on recent winners of each race.

NEWMARKET Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2:05 – Jenningsbet Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Cl4 6f ITV

20/21 – Didn’t win last time out
18/21 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
17/21 – Had won over 6f before
17/21 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
15/21 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Aged 5 or older
14/21 – Had 3 or more career wins
14/21 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
13/21 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/21 – Unplaced favourites
3/21 – Winning favourites
2/21 – Trained by Mick Appleby (2 of the last 7)
4 of the last 6 winners from stalls 4 or lower
Strike won the race in 2022 and 6th in 2023

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:50 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y ITV

22/22 – Had won at least twice in their career
19/22 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
18/22 – Aged 3-5 years-old
17/22 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
15/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/22 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
14/22 – Officially rated 110 or higher
13/22 – Winning favourites
12/22 – Ran at Goodwood or Newmarket last time out
10/22 – Had already won a Group race
9/22 – Had won at Newbury before
Arrest (5/6 fav) won the race in 2023

2:25 – BetVictor Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-88) 5f ITV

One previous running
Desperate Hero (4/1) won the race in 2023
Trainer Clive Cox is just 1 from 26 with his 4 year-olds at the track
Trainer Julie Camacho has an overall 29% strike-rate at the track
Trainer Darryll Holland has an overall 23% strike-rate at the track

3.00 – TPT Fire Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV

12/13 - Aged between 3-6 (inc)
12/13 - Carried 9-1 or more in weight
10/13 - Won between 2-4 times before
11/13 - Had won over 7f or further before
9/13 - Finished 5th or better last time out
9/13 - Rated between 90-96 (inc)
8/13 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 - Carried between 9-1 and 9-7
7/13 - Had raced at Newbury before
7/13 - Irish bred
5/13 - Ran at Ascot last time out
3/13 - Ridden by Adam Kirby
2/13 - Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 7)
2/13 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of last 4)
2/13 - Winning favourites
2/13 - Won last time out
The 3 of the last 5 winners came from stall 6
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
Spangled Mac (15/2) won the race in 2023
Documenting (7/2) won the race in 2022

3.35 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

20/22 – Didn’t win last time out
18/22 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
18/22 – Had won over this 7f trip before
18/22 – Officially rated 108 or more
18/22 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
17/22 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
16/22 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
12/22 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
8/22 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/22 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 9)
13 of the last 15 winners were all draw 6 or lower
Just one winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
Witch Hunter won the race in 2023
Jumby won the race in 2022

RIPON Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Sky Racing)

2:45 William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-80) 6f ITV

One past running
Roundhay Park (11/1) won the race in 2023
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 31% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Paul Midgely has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Edward Bethell has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Grant Tuer is just 1-from-45 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Callum Rodriguez has a 21% strike-rate riding 4+ year-olds at the track

3:20 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

19/22 – Previous winners over 6f
16/22 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
16/22 – Didn’t win last time out
15/22– Winning distance of 1 length or less
14/22 – Carried 8-12 or more
14/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/22 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/22 - Had run at Ripon before (4 won)
12/21 – Unplaced favourites
12/22 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
9/22 – Ran at either Goodwood (6) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/22 – Aged 4 years-old
6/22 – Winning favourites (5 in the last 11)
3/22 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 13)
3/22 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
3/22 – Ridden by Connor Beasley
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 11)
2/22 – Aged 3 years-old
Summerghand was runner-up in 2023
No winner from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
8 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
Only 7 winning favourites since 1990
Since 1986 ALL bar one winner returned 20/1 or less

 

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Sat TV Trends: 17th Sept 2022

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It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race.

Did you know? 16 of the last 21 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 12 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.

Use our key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.20 – Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

10/10 - Won at least twice before
10/10 - Rated between 89 and 96
9/10 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Won previously over 1m
8/10 - Aged between 3-5 years-old
8/10 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 - Carried 9-3 or less in weight
7/10 - Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc)
7/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/10 - Irish bred
6/10 - Placed favourites
5/10 - Had run at Ayr before
4/10 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/10 - Trained by David O’Meara
2/10 - Winning favourites
Revich (20/1) won the race in 2021

1.55 – Virgin Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Yet to race at Ayr
10/11 – Won over 1m2f or more
10/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
9/11 – Rated between 101 and 111
9/11 – Won 3 or more times before
8/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Aged 4 or older
7/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/11 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 9)
3/11 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of the last 7)

2.30 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

19/19 – Carried 8-11 or more
16/19 – Aged 5 or younger
17/19 – Previous winners over 6f
15/19 – Winning distance 1 length or less
15/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
15/19 – Carried 9-0 or more
14/19 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
14/19 – Had 5 or more runs that season
12/19 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
12/19 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/19 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
3/19 – Winning Favourites
0/19 – Filly or mare winners

3.05 – Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4

17/19 – Had never raced at Ayr before
16/19 – Finished 4th or better last time out
15/19 – Previous winners over 6f
15/19 – Had won once or two times before
14/19 – Winning distance 1 length or further
14/19 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/19 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
13/19 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
11/19 – Placed favourites
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/19 – Trained by Bryan Smart

3.40 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

21/21 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
18/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
18/21 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
16/21 – Had won over 6f before
16/21 – Failed to win their last race
14/21 – Rated 90-101
14/21 – Carried 9-1 or more
14/21 – Came from a double-figure stall
13/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/21 – Had 7 or more runs that season
11/21 – Unplaced favourites
11/21 – Winning distance 1 length or less
11/21 – Ran at Doncaster (3), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
10/21 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/21 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/21 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/21 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 9)
0/21 – Filly or mare winners
12 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 17 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just 6 winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 14/1

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.40 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV4

20/20 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
18/20 – Priced 9/1 or less
16/20 – Aged 5 or younger
16/20 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
15/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
15/20 – Had 4 or more career wins
12/20 – Raced at Newbury before
11/20 – Favourites placed
11/20 – Had won a Group race before
9/20 – Raced 5 or more times that season
8/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Favourites that won
4/20 – Trained by David Simcock (including 4 of last 7 runnings)
4/20 – Raced at York last time
3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Solid Stone (12/1) won the race last year

 

2.15 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

19/20 – Raced four or more times that season
18/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
17/20 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
16/20 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
16/20 – Won a Listed or Group race before
16/20 – Won over 5f previously
15/20 - Aged 5 or younger
14/20 – Won 4 or more times
13/20 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/20 – Previous Group race winners
7/20 – Won their last race
6/20 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 9 winners)
6/20 – Favourites
5/20 – Mare winners

 

2.50 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

15/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
15/20 – Won from draw 5 or lower
15/20 – Raced 3 or more times
15/20 – Won over 6f previously
14/20 – Favourites placed
13/20 – Foaled in March or later
12/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/20 – Favourites (or joint) that won
8/20 – Won exactly two races before
7/20 – Won by an April foal
6/20 – Won their previous race
5/20 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/20 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/20 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of the last 6)
2/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/20 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/20 – Filly winners

 

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Won over 1m2f or further before
11/12 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
10/12 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
9/12 – Won 3 or 4 times
8/12 – Drawn 8 or lower
6/12 – Rated between 92 and 96 (inc)
6/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/12 – Had run at Newbury before

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Sat TV Trends: 17th July 2021

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This Saturday we’ve another busy day of LIVE ITV Racing with the cameras heading to Market Rasen and Newbury to take in seven races across the two venues.

At Market Rasen, over the sticks, it’s their biggest day of the season with the Betway Summer Plate Chase (2.40) and Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle (2.05) the feature contests.

Then at Newbury, the Group Three Hackwood Stakes (4.00) tops the bill - a race 14 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or younger.

Like all big race days, we’ve got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends

 

1.50 - bet365 Stakes (Reg as the Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

 

12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or  more
11/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
9/16 – Had run at the track before
6/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Had won a Group race before
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Winners from stall 1
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Won last time out
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 11 runnings

 

2.25 - Bahrain Turf Series Cup (Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

 

Just three previous runnings
3/3 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
3/3 - Carried 8-12 or more in weight
1/3 – Winning favourites
Reshoun (14/1) won the race in 2020, Ian Williams
Withhold (17/2) won the race in 2019, Roger Charlton
Stratum (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018, Willie Mullins

 

3:00 - bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

 

16/17 – Won over 6f before
14/17 – Aged 5 or younger
13/17 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had won 4 or more times before
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Had won a Group race before
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winners from stall 8
2/17 – Trained by Hughie Morrison
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of last 6)
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
Tabdeed (4/1 jfav) won the race in 2020
8 of the last 10 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting

 

3.40 - Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV

 

16/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Had won over 5f before
13/17 – Won 1-2 times before
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/17 – Favourites placed in the top 4
10/17 – Won by a Feb or March foal
9/17 – Irish bred winners
9/17 – Won by a filly
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Winners from stall 1
Richard Hannon has trained the winner in 2014, 2018 and 2020
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2013, 2015 and 2017

 

 

Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends

 

2.05 - Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

 

16/19 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
15/19 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/19 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
13/19 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
11/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/19 – Had run at Market Rasen before
2/19 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/19 – Winning favourites
13 of the last 14 winners carried 11-5 or less
10 of the last 15 winners carried 11-0 or less
9 of the last 15 winners retuned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
Red Force One (5/1) won the race in 2020

 

 

2.40 - Betway Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5 1/2f ITV

18/19 – Had run within the last 3 months
17/19 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
16/19 – Aged 7 or older
13/19 – Had won 2 or more chases before
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or less
13/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/19 – Had run at Market Rasen before
11/19 – Won their previous race
7/19 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
5/19 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/19 – Ran at Stratford last time out
3/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/19 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 10)
2/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
10 of the last 13 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

 

 

3.10 - Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150) 2m7f ITV

6 previous runnings
6/6 - Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/6 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/6 - Won between 2-5 times (hurdles)
5/6 - Aged 8 or younger
5/6 - Carried 11-0 or less in weight
4/6 - Irish bred
4/6 - Won over 3m+ hurdles before
4/6 - Rated between 126-134
3/6 - Unplaced last time out
2/6 - Had run at the track before
1/6 - Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 5/1

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 6th March 2021

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We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, we’ve got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 – BetVictor Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV

9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged 10 years-old
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites
Carole’s Destrier (6/1) won the race in 2019
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1

 

1.50 – BetVictor Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV

15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

 

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.20 – Virgin Bet Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV

7 previous runnings
7/7- Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top 2
6/7 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
4/7 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
4/7 – Irish bred

2.55 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/9 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
5/9 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/9 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/9 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Movie Legend won the race in 2019

 

3.30 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV

16/16 – Aged 8 or older
15/16 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/16 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
13/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/16 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
12/16 – Aged 9 or older
11/16 – From the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Rated 131 or less
10/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/16 – Winning Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
Captain Chaos won the race in 2020
Chidswell won the race in 2019
Definitely Red won this race in 2017
 

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.30 – bet365 Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV

11/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
11/12 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Had raced at Kelso before
6/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Winning favourite
3/12– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/12 – Trained by Lucinda Russell

 

2.05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track

 

2.40 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV

7/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had run at the course before
6/7 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
5/7 – Placed 4th or better last time out
5/7 – Won over 3m plus in the past
5/7 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
5/7 – Aged 9 or older
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Rated between 132-140 (inc)
3/7 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/7 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes
3/7 – Winning favourite
Definitely Red (Evs) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

 

 

3.15 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m

 

9/9 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Had run in the last 3 months
8/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Rated between 138-146
4/9 – Winning favourites
4/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/9 – Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/9 – Had won at the track before
2/9 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/9 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/4

 

 

 

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Betfair Hurdle Trends

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Staged at Newbury racecourse the Betfair Hurdle is a Grade Three contest run over 2m 1/2f in February each year. First run in 1963, the race is always a hotly-contested race, while some punters might know the even better as either the Tote Gold Trophy or the totesport Trophy, being that’s what the race was called before Betfair took over the sponsorship in 2012.

Despite more obvious Champion Hurdle trials on offer during the season the race has thrown up two horses – Persian War and Make A Stand – that went onto glory at the Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Hurdle later that season, while the 2013 hero - My Tent Or Yours - went onto be second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

The 2003 winner, Spirit Leader, went onto land the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival the following month, while in 2017 the Nigel Twiston-Davis-trained Ballyandy won the race before running fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. More recently in 2018, Kalashinkov won this before running second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

In 2019, we saw the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Al Dancer win the race under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, while last year the Paul Nicholls camp were successful with a 33/1 shot – Pic D’Orhy.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year staged on Sunday 21st February.

 

Recent Betfair Hurdle Winners

2020 – PIC D’ORHY (33/1)
2019 - AL DANCER (5/2 fav)
2018 – KALASHINKOV (8/1 co-fav)
2017 – BALLYANDY (3/1 fav)
2016 – AGRAPART (16/1)
2015 – VIOLET DANCER (20/1)
2014 – SPLASH OF GINGE (33/1)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (5/1 fav)
2012 – ZARKANDAR (11/4 fav)
2011 – RECESSION PROOF (12/1)
2010 – GET ME OUT OF HERE (6/1)
2009 – No race
2008 – WINGMAN (14/1)
2007 – HEATHCOTE (50/1)
2006 – No race
2005 – ESSEX (4/1 fav)
2004 – GEOS (16/1)
2003 – SPIRIT LEADER (14/1)
2002 – COPELAND (13/2)
2001 – LANDING LIGHT (4/1 fav)

Betfair Hurdle Betting Trends

18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1

 

 

 

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Newbury TV Trends: Sun 21st Feb 2021

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Newbury were due to stage their decent Betfair Hurdle fixture on Saturday 13th Feb 2021, but were forced to cancel the meeting due to a frozen track.

However, the GOOD NEWS, is that there are plans to move the entire card to Sunday 21st Feb 2021 (weather permitting), with the Betfair Hurdle, Denman Chase and Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) the three features and ITV Racing expected to show the fixture too.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends and top tips.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

Sunday 21st February 2021


1.50 - Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4

14/15 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
11/15 – Aged 7 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/15 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
10/15 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Aged 7 years-old
6/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/15 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/15 – French bred
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Raced at Haydock last time out

 

2.25 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

15/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Rated 150+
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/17 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
10/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/17 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/17 – Returned a double-figure price
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1

 

3.00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4

15/15 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Placed favourites
13/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
11/15 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (5 winners)
6/15 – French bred
6/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/15 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Altior has won the last three renewals (2017, 2018 & 2020)

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

 

 

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger
Pic D’Orhy (33/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1

 

 

 

 

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Denman Chase Trends

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Staged at Newbury racecourse the Betfair-sponsored Denman Chase is a Grade Two race that is run in February each year.

First run in 2000, the Denman Chase is always a hotly-contested race that is run over a trip of 3 miles, and over the years has provided plenty of clues ahead of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Four horses have won this race before going onto land the Cheltenham Gold Cup that same season – Kauto Star (2007), Denman (2008), Coneygree (2015) & Native River (2018).

In 2017 – Native River won the Denman Chase before running third in the Gold Cup, but in 2018 he went one better after landing both the Denman Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The race was upgraded to Listed status in 2002 and then promoted further in 2003 to a Grade Two – which it remains at today.

The contest was originally sponsored by the Aon Group, but in 2012 leading betting exchange – Betfair – took over the sponsorship mantle, and in the process also renamed the race the ‘Denman Chase’ in honour of the 2008 winner.

Since 2000 leading National Hunt trainer – Paul Nicholls – has won the race 9 times, while if you like your trends it’s worth noting that 7 of the last 13 winners of the Denman Chase were aged 7 years-old – backed up again in 2019 with the Paul Nicholls-trained Clan Des Obeaux winning as a 7 year-old.

However, it was the turn of a returning champion in Native River in 2020 – this Colin Tizzard chaser and former Gold Cup winner, landed his third Denman Chase under jockey Jonjo O’Neill Jnr.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year staged on Sunday 21st February.

 

Recent Denman Chase Winners

2020 – Native River (2/5 fav)
2019 - Clan Des Obeaux (2/5 fav)
2018 - Native River (8/11 fav)
2017 – Native River (11/10)
2016 - Houblon des Obeaux (3/1)
2015 – Coneygree (15/8 fav)
2014 – Harry Topper (7/2)
2013 – Silviniaco Conti (8/11 fav)
2012 – Long Run (4/7 fav)
2011 – Noland (13/2)
2010 – Tricky Trickster (8/1)
2009 – Madison du Berlais (12/1)
2008 – Denman (1/4 fav)
2007 – Kauto Star (2/9 fav)

Denman Chase Trends

15/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Rated 150+
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/17 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
10/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/17 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/17 – Returned a double-figure price
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1

 

 

 

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Newbury TV Trends: 27th Nov 2020

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Its DAY ONE of the Newbury Ladbrokes Trophy Meeting this Friday and we’ve four LIVE races on ITV to take in that include the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and free tips.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV3/RTV)

 

1.50 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Novices' Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV3

12/13 – Aged 5 or older
12/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Favourites placed in the top 2
10/13 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
7/13 – Yet to win over fences
7/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2
Champ (4/5 fav) won this race in 2019

 

 

2.25 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f187y ITV3

12/13 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
12/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged 9 or younger
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
10/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
10/13 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
8/13 – Rated between 131 and 140
8/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/13 – Trained by Dan Skelton
0/13 – Winning favourites
Oldgrangewood (6/1) won this race in 2017 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m52y ITV3

15/18 – Grade One winner over hurdles
15/18 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
13/18 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
13/18 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
13/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
12/18 – Had won a hurdles race at Newbury before
12/18 – Ran at either Aintree (7) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
11/18 – Winning favourites
10/18 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – French bred
8/18 – Returned odds-on in the betting
7/18 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
7/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
5/18 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (inc 5 of last 11 renewals)
Paisley Park (8/15 fav) won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

3.35 – Play Ladbrokes 1-2 Free On Football Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m52y ITV3

12/13 – Placed 5th or better last time out
12/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
10/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (5), Wincanton (3) or Wetherby (2) last time
10/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Irish-bred winners
7/13 – Won just 1-2 times over hurdles
7/13 – Yet to win over 3m (or further) over hurdles
5/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/13 – Trained by David Pipe
2/13 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
Vive Le Roi won this race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1



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Sat TV Trends: 24th Oct 2020

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Bundles going on this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham – As always we got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle…….Can leading Irish handler Aidan O’Brien land his tenth Vertum Futurity Trophy?

Use these key trends to help narrow down the runners and highlight the best profiles of past winners.

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)


1.45 –Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

12/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
11/12 – Foaled in February or later
11/12 – Had won over 6f before
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times before
10/12 – Won last time out
9/12 – Carried 9-1 in weight
9/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/12 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
8/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – March-born foals
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/12 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

2.20 – Vertum Very Different Stockbrokers Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

15/15 – Ran 5 or more times that season
14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/15 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Carried 8-10 or less
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (4 won)
5/15 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
2/15 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 6)
1/15 – Winning mare/filly
Tarboosh (8/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

2.55 – Vertem Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

 

16/18 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
16/18 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 - Foaled in February or later
15/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
15/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/18 – Had raced at least twice previously
12/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Won their last race
11/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/18 – Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (7) last time out
10/18 – Had won over a mile in the past
7/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
6/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 7)
4/18 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (inc the last 3 winners)
3/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
1/18 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 & 2018
The average SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/2

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Newbury
Note: The 2019 renewal was staged at Newcastle

 

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 


3.35 – Cancom Stakes Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
13/16 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
11/16 – Never raced at Newbury
12/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Favourites unplaced
8/16 – Won over 7f before
8/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – Foaled in February
7/16 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
4/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
4/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
1/16 – Winning favourites

 

4.10 – Teddington RBL Poppy Appeal Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won at least twice before
14/17 – Had at least 4 runs that season
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Rated 107 or higher
10/17 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
10/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/17 – Placed horses from stall 6
7/17 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/17 – Won by a filly or mare
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/17 – Winners from stall 1
Morando (8/1) won the race in 2018
Young Rascal (Evs) won this race in 2017

 

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 - Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

8/11 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
6/11 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Carried 10-12 in weight
6/11 – Placed in their last race
5/11 – Irish bred winners
4/11 – Favourites placed
4/11 – Won 3 times over hurdles previously
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Quel Destin (1st 7/2) won the race in 2019
 

2.40 – Best Odds At Matchbook Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than 3 times over fences
9/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Had run over hurdles at Cheltenham in the past (3 won)
7/10 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences)
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/10 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

 

 

3.15 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

8/11 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/11 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
7/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/11 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Irish Bred
2/11 – Mare winners
2/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Winning favourites
Tobefair (8/1) won this race in 2019



3.50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

12/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
12/13 – Won over at least 3m previously
10/13 – First run of the season
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
9/13 – Rated 134 or higher
9/13 – Irish bred winners
8/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/13 – Favourites unplaced
7/13 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
6/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/13 – Unplaced in their last race
5/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
5/13 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
1/13 – Winning Favourites
The Conditional (14/1) won the race in 2019
Cogry (13/2) won the race in 2017
Cogry was 2nd in the race last year
Relentless Dreamer (16/1) won the race in 2018

 

 

 

 

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Sun TV Trends: 16th Aug 2020

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This Sunday, the ITV cameras head to Newbury and Ripon to take in seven races across the two venues.

At Newbury, the Listed St Hugh Fillies’ Stakes (3.35) is their main draw, while up at Ripon it’s their Great St Wilfrid day.

We’ve got the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our free horse racing tips.

 

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS

 

1:50 – Unibet Extra Places Every Day Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-85) 1m ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
5/5 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
5/5 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
3/5 – Winners from stalls 3 or lower
2/5 – Winners from stall 3
0/5 – Winning favourites
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton won this race in 2019

 

2:25 – Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
1/10 – Winning favourites

 

3:00 – Unibet You’re On Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m5½f ITV4

10/10 – Aged 5 or younger
9/10 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
3/10 – Winning favourites
Emenem won this race in 2019

 

3:35 – Unibet St Hugh's Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f ITV4

9/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
5/10 - Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
2/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/10 – Winning favourites
Trainer Archie Watson won this race in 2018

 

 

RIPON HORSE RACING TRENDS

 

2:05 - williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
9/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Winners from stall 7 or lower
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Trained by David O’Meara (4 of the last 7)
2/10 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
Hortzador won this race in 2019

 

2:40 - William Hill Ripon Hornblower Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV4

10/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
9/10 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Drawn in stall 1
3/10 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/10 – Trained by Ann Duffield
2/10 – Ridden by Tony Hamilton

 

3:15 - William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 6f ITV4

 

16/18 – Previous winners over 6f
14/18 – Didn’t win last time out
14/18 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
13/18 – Carried 8-12 or more
12/18 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
12/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
10/18  - Had run at Ripon before (3 won)
9/18 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
7/18 – Ran at either Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/18 – Aged 4 years-old
5/18 – Winning favourites (4 in the last 7 years)
3/18 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 9)
3/18 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 7)
1/18 – Aged 3 years-old
Dakota Gold (5/1 fav) won the race in 2019
Gunmetal won the race in 2018
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
8 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
Only 6 winning favourites since 1990
Since 1986 ALL bar one winner returned 20/1 or less
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 11/1

 

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Sat TV Trends: 15th Aug 2020

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We’ve got all the trends & stats you need ahead of the LIVE ITV action from Newbury and Newmarket this Saturday.

Use these trends to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

 

NEWMARKET Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 Betway Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m4f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
9/10 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Didn’t’ win last time out
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 3 (6) or 5 (2)
8/10 – Placed 5th or better last time out
8/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/10 – Rated between 80 and 85
7/10 – Won just once before
6/10 – Ran at Newmarket (July) before
5/10 – Winning favourites

 

2.40 Betway Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 7f ITV

7/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/7 – Won between 1-3 times
7/7 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-7 in weight
5/7 – Had won over 7f before
5/7 – Placed favourites
5/7 – Rated between 79-81
6/7 – Finished in the top two last time out
5/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by David Barron

 

3.15 – Betway Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Cl4 6f ITV

16/17 – Failed to win last time out
15/17 – Had won over 6f before
15/17 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
14/17 – Aged 5 or older
13/17 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
13/17 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
12/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had 3 or more career wins
11/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
3/17 – Trained by Tony Newcombe
1/17 – Winning favourites
My Amigo (5/1) won the race in 2018
Case Key (8/1) won the race in 2017 and 2019

 

 

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.50 – Denford Stakes (Registered as The Washington Singer Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

16/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/18 – Had won a race before
14/18 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
13/18 – Won by a Feb (7) or March (5) foal
12/18 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
12/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Horses from stall 3 placed
10/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Sandown (2) last time out
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/18 – Won on their racecourse debut
4/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

 

2.25 - Unibet You're On Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 39% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jim Crowley has a 21% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3.00 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y ITV

18/18 – Had won at least twice in their career
16/18 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
14/18 – Aged 3-5 years-old
13/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
12/18 – Officially rated 110 or higher
12/18 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/18 – Ran at Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (6) last time out
10/18 – Winning favourites
8/18 – Had already won a Group race
7/18 – Had won at Newbury before
Technician (10/1) won the race in 2019

 

3.35 – Unibet Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

16/18 – Didn’t win last time out
16/18 – Had won a Listed (6) or Group (9) race before
15/18 – Had won over this 7f trip before
15/18 – Officially rated 108 or more
15/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/18 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
14/18 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
9/18 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
8/18 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
The last 11 winners were all draw 6 or lower
Just one winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
Glorious Journey (10/3) won the race in 2019
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
Breton Rock won the race in 2014 and was third in 2015

 

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Sat TV Trends: 13th June 2020

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Another decent day of LIVE ITV this Saturday as the cameras head to Sandown and Newbury to take in seven races across the two venues. And, as always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends and stats.

At Newbury, the Group 3 Diomed Stakes (3.35) is their feature contest, while at Sandown the sprinters are in action for the Listed Scurry Stakes (2:40).

 

So, put the odds in your favour – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners and pay for the weekend expenses.

Let’s get started!

 

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Newbury Horse Racing Trends

1:50 - It’s Not Rocket Science With MansionBet Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 1m2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Clive Cox is only 2 from 37 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote is only 1 from 24 riding 3 year-olds at the track

 

2:25 - Watch And Bet With MansionBet At Newbury Maggie Dickson Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Winners came between stalls 4-6 (inc)
3/3 – Unplaced last time out
3/3 – Had won over 7f in the past
3/3 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
0/3 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 9/1
Trainer Ed Walker won this race 12 months ago
Trainer Richard Hannon won this race in 2018
Trainer William Haggas has a 37% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Marquand is 0-from-31 riding 4+ year-olds at the track

Note: This race is normally run at Musselburgh

 

3:00 - British Stallion Studs EBF/MansionBet Abingdon Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than twice before
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/10 – Drawn between stalls 1-4
7/10 – Had won over at least 1m before
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Ridden by James Doyle
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick
2/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

 

3:35 - MansionBet Beaten By A Head Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
13/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Aged 5 or older
11/17 – Had raced at Epsom before
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/17 – Ridden by William Buick
Zaaki won the race in 2019
Century Dream won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

Note: This race is normally run at Epsom

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends

2:05 - Sutton Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 7f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is only 4 from 52 (8%) with his 3 year-olds at the track

 

2:40 - Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4

15/15 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
10/15 – Came from stall 7 or higher
9/15 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/15 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
5/15 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
2/15 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

 

3:15 - Claygate Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 42% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Jamie Osborne has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is only 2 from 30 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jason Watson has a 30% record when riding 4+ year-olds at the track



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