Eve Johnson Houghton is “slightly leaning” towards the idea of running Windsor Castle winner Hurricane Havana in the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.
The Havana Gold colt was a smart winner at the Royal meeting, and although he earns himself a 5lb penalty for that Listed success he would still run under a relative feather weight at the weekend.
He was purchased for just 9,000 guineas and as the conditions of the Super Sprint reward cheaply purchased horses, the £250,000 feature looks a tempting option and may prove more so than the Molecomb Stakes alternative also under consideration.
“We’re slightly leaning towards the Super Sprint now, but it hasn’t been confirmed,” said Johnson Houghton.
“He’s doing very well, he came out of Ascot in very good form.
“We had been discussing the Molecomb, but the Super Sprint is tempting and the prize-money is very good.
“He’ll do a bit of work tomorrow and we’ll take it from there.”
Also entered is Rod Millman and Middleham Park Racing’s Anthelia, fifth when beaten two lengths in the Listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket last month and three times a winner prior to that.
Millman said: “I thought she ran quite well at Newmarket last time and all being well the plan is to run on Saturday.
“It’s a competitive race, it always is, and a lot depends on where you’re drawn and who you’re following.
“I wouldn’t want too much rain because she’s got a very low action. We’ve got other horses entered on Saturday that want cut, but she doesn’t.
“There’s 1lb between us and Eve Johnson Houghton’s horse on handicap ratings, because we’re 94 and we’re getting 5lb him, so we’re only 1lb wrong.
“She’s been a very good horse for us so far and hopefully she can continue to be.”
Other horses prominent in the market are Karl Burke’s Ali Shuffle, Richard Hughes’ Our Cody and Richard Fahey’s Cotai Belle.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/2.80706492-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-07-15 13:39:122025-07-15 13:39:12Super Sprint temptation for Johnson Houghton with Havana Hurricane
Brian Toomey’s first-ever two-year-old winner could prove worth the wait after Electrical marked himself as an exciting prospect with a power-packed display on debut at Newbury.
The former jockey turned trainer – who sustained life-threatening injuries in a fall at Perth in 2013 – had previously never sent out a juvenile winner from his Chalfont St Giles base before the Jeff Smith-owned son of Nathaniel turned up the voltage on some useful looking rivals.
Toomey was thrilled to see Smith’s famous purple silks carried to success in his name and, although sent off a 25-1 shot for his racecourse bow, his handler was always confident he had a smart youngster on his hands.
Electrical is bred for to be useful in time but is a surprise winner on debut, showing lots of promise to open his account at the first time of asking for @BToomeyRacing and @_JasonWatson! pic.twitter.com/4iNdvx1qV4
“It meant a lot for me to train my first two-year-old winner and it to be a homebred winner of Jeff’s and Jeff was there on the night,” said Toomey. “He’s a very special man and it’s a privilege to train for him.
“It looked a bit brave going for a Newbury novice and his sire Nathaniel isn’t known for two-year-old runners and he was also taking on a colt of Eve Johnson Houghton’s (Goldwork) that had won well last time out.
“So it looked like it would be a really competitive event but his work at home had been very good and albeit I’m a very small stable so he hadn’t been overworked, I had done a barrier trial with him at Lingfield which was a great experience with him and gave me some confidence.”
Toomey will now consult with Smith and his team before deciding the next step of Electrical’s career, but he could be seen in deeper waters later in the season to continue his on-track education.
Owner Jeff Smith (right) has been a supporter of Toomey (Joe GIddens/PA)
“He’s a big, big horse so to win at this stage of his career can only be a bonus,” continued Toomey.
“I will discuss in depth with Jeff and David Bowe (racing manager) what we do next and I think I will potentially step him up a furlong.
“It’s hard to win a novice under a penalty isn’t it, so when there’s some ease in the ground I might look at some of the nice two-year-old races later in the season at Doncaster and Newbury.
“For now there’s no rush with him, we’ll give him time to get over his debut and hopefully strengthen up again ahead of whatever we decide to do next.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/2.23537908.jpg12182436Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-07-08 16:54:062025-07-08 16:54:06Electrical sparks big-race dreams for Brian Toomey
Colin Keane made the perfect start as Juddmonte retained jockey when Blue Bolt recorded a bloodless victory at Newbury on Thursday.
It was the first time the six-time Irish champion had donned the famous colours of the Abdullah family since his appointment was announced on Monday, as he took the reins aboard Andrew Balding’s Windsor scorer Blue Bolt, who was sent off the 6-4 second-favourite for the Darley EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes.
The Irishman left little to chance with a positive ride and having asked his mount to quicken and put the race to bed passing the two-furlong pole, Blue Bolt soon put distance between his rivals.
Although seeing her advantage shortened by Roger Varian’ Majaz in the closing stages, Blue Bolt was still a length and a quarter clear at the winning post to help rubber stamp Keane’s position as first choice to one of the leading ownership operations in racing.
His first ride and it's a first winner for Colin Keane in the @JuddmonteFarms silks since his appointment!
Keane said: “It’s the perfect start and she is a nice filly who was a good winner the last day and seems to have stepped forward again.
“She’s very uncomplicated, she just gallops on and is a nice filly. It felt very easy for her in the first half of the race and I was trying to take her back a little bit and she just got a bit lonely once she had quickened away from them. But I would say she is a filly with a nice future.
“I’m very privileged to be asked to wear these colours and they are iconic in racing. I have grown up looking at them and their farm is only up the road so I’m in a very privileged position.”
Although this was Keane’s first ride on a member of the Juddmonte string in an official capacity, he has twice tasted Classic honours in their silks when winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas with both Siskin in 2020 and John and Thady Gosden’s Field Of Gold only last month.
Field of Gold dazzled in the Irish 2,000 Guineas (Niall Carson/PA)
It is the latter that could prove Keane’s trump card at Royal Ascot next week and speaking to Sky Sports Racing he added: “He was very good on the day (in the Irish Guineas) and he felt like a proper horse. I don’t think I’ve ridden one as good as him to be honest.
“Only time will tell, but I think a fast pace would help him and bring him along further (in the St James’s Palace) and hopefully he’s then good enough to pick them off.”
Earlier on the card George Boughey’s 8-11 favourite Moonfall opened his account at the third attempt when a two-length winner of the first division of the Local IQ EBF Novice Stakes, while Charlie Appleby’s heavy odds-on favourite Time To Turn was turned over in the second division by Clive Cox’s 28-1 outsider A Bit Of Spirit.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/277117824-1.jpg11532306https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png2025-06-12 15:42:572025-06-12 15:42:57Blue Bolt strike sees Keane waste no time in celebrating Juddmonte position
Well, Christmas and the New Year holidays are well and truly over, writes David Massey, and with the decorations stuffed back into the garage, the last of the Wensleydale and water biscuits demolished and just the awfulness of the Bounties left in the Celebrations tub (sorry Lydia, but it’s true) it’s time to go back to work.
Or at least it would be if the weather wasn’t playing havoc with my schedule this week. Leicester, which was the first port of call on Tuesday, bit the dust at the weekend and I’m not holding out a lot of hope for the nominated replacement fixture, Doncaster on Friday. Warwick on Saturday has to be in the balance, too, with the course waterlogged; and that in turn means they can’t get the frost sheets down for later in the week. I fear it may be a week at home, which in turn means the good lady will find lots of dreadful jobs for me to do. Anyone any good at hanging pictures up?
At least we got through Christmas with no abandonments and thank the Lord we did, with the good lady and myself taking in Kempton on Boxing Day and staying over for the Friday meeting before heading off to Challow Day at Newbury. She’d never been to King George Day before and so, despite a stupidly early get-up of 7am, we set off for what we hoped was a Bank Holiday weekend of tremendous sport.
The one really good thing about the Christmas period, when you do a lot of driving as part of your job, is the total lack of traffic on the road. It felt like it was at least ten minutes after leaving our house before we came across another vehicle. Why can’t it be like this all the time? Oh, how my life would be easier. No more bottlenecks in the roadworks on the A1 going to Wetherby. Goodbye, shocking jams near Heathrow that take me forty minutes to navigate on the way to Sandown. And farewell 50mph M1 roadworks near Northampton… actually, no. Those swines would still be there. Forever.
We arrived at Kempton in plenty of time – early, in fact, even after a Boxing Day Maccies breakfast stop at Watford Gap, a service station I frequently can’t find my way out of – and the Christmas spirit was already evident. After grabbing a coffee and catching up with my friend Anna from Sheffield, also at KG Day for the first time, I found my work partner Vicki and we set about how we were going to tackle the day.
The racing, I have to say, was superb. The Jukebox Man did not disappoint, looking every inch the chasing star I really hope he is. Constitution Hill, whilst not back to his best yet, was at least taking a step towards it in the Christmas Hurdle (and yes, he will come on for that). The wonderful Banbridge proved myself and others wrong by staying the three miles well and picking up a brave but tired Il Est Francais after the last. I was equally delighted to see L’Homme Presse finish third on his seasonal debut for Andy Edwards, and he tells me he's come out of the race well.
After the last we head to Addlestone, which is where we are staying for the next couple of nights. The good lady has booked us into a local Thai restaurant early evening for food, an excellent choice. We are greeted with a cheery “Merry Christmas!” by a Thai lady as we enter. I wish her a Merry Christmas back, thinking she was a member of staff. It turns out she wasn’t, merely a customer that had been enjoying herself in a local hostelry or two for the afternoon and wanted to carry that enjoyment on here. She entertained us by (loudly) singing along to all the easy-listening versions of classic pop songs the restaurant were playing – her rendition of Coldplay’s “Yellow” a personal highlight – until she’d entertained us for long enough and decided to go back to the pub. “If you ever come to Woking, I’ll take care of you!” she shouted as she left, something I wasn’t sure was a promise of hospitality or a threat. We finished our meal in peace and went back to the hotel for a quiet night.
Kempton Day 2. Breakfast in the superb Bread & Roses, which I can highly recommend if you’re ever in the area, is followed by a blissful 17-minute drive to the course. Although not before I’ve filled up with petrol, which has me muttering “how much?” as even the prices at the local supermarkets are considerably higher than they are in the Midlands. Can’t eat value, goes the old racing saying, but I can’t even put it in the tank down here.
With time to kill at the track, I try my hand at a Crystal Maze-like box that is one of the on-course attractions set up by Ladbrokes on the day. Those of you of a certain vintage will remember the endgame of The Crystal Maze: what remained of the team of accountants/nurses/architects by this point were locked into a huge glass dome before they turned the fans on, and all the pretty gold and silver tickets flew around their heads. The aim was to get 100 Gold tokens to win the big prize (“The pony-trekking holiday in Ullswater will be MINE!”) which they failed to do with alarming regularity. This was similar, but with flying foam balls. I scored 30 in my allotted 30 seconds in the box, which I thought was pretty good, but the bloke after me, who couldn’t have been much more than five foot tall, scored an impressive 38. Lower centre of gravity, I told myself. Yes, it was that, and not the fact I’m old and creaking, that was the difference. Let’s move on.
The highlight of the day’s racing was, without doubt, Sir Gino, who looked superb before the Wayward Lad and, as he danced around Kempton’s tight turns attracting oohs and aaahs from the knowledgeable crowd as he put in spectacular leaps at some of his fences, you did get the feeling you were watching a new chasing star being born. From a punting perspective, by far the better day of the two for me, with both Della Casa Lunga and Ooh Betty getting me back in front over the two days.
With the Italian restaurant cancelling my reservation for no good reason, food that night is nothing more than a raid on the local Waitrose and back to the hotel but the peace of the evening is rudely shattered by the fire alarm going off. We’re all outside – I say all, there couldn’t have been more than forty of us – debating whether this is someone having a fag in one of the rooms or whether local kids are mucking around, when I realise I’ve left my coat in the room and am now freezing cold. It takes 40 minutes to sort the mess out, but thankfully it’s a false alarm, and nothing worse than us missing an Only Connect Christmas Special has happened. However, the alarm periodically goes off for a few seconds at a time and we wonder whether we are going to get through the night without another visit to the car park.
The episode takes me back to a time when that happened in a Travelodge in (I think) Leatherhead a few years ago. We were all outside in the cold when a lady offered me her dressing gown. That was weird enough, but literally getting propositioned by her not long after put the tin hat on things. (No, I didn’t, behave yourselves. I’m better than that. Not much, but I am.)
As things turned out, it was a Silent Night, with the alarm behaving itself and we get a decent kip. A final Builder’s Breakfast at Bread & Roses (the scales were not kind to me next morning) and we are on the road to Newbury.
Now, Newbury is one of those tracks that seems to split opinion. Vicki loves the place, but she’s crackers, and I’m with the majority that find the place hard going these days. I have to say that the new pre-parade ring is very good, though, and a real boon for those wanting to get an early look.
This is supposed to be a day off with the good lady for me, with Vicki doing the donkey work for Trackside today, but it isn’t long before I’m roped back in as the favourite for the second is taken back to the pre-parade. “Get in there and see what the problem is, will ya?” she says, literally pushing me that way in the process. I do as I’m told, obviously, and it turns out they’re having issues with the tongue-tie, which gets a report. The horse ends up well beaten.
The Good Doctor, on which I’ve had a decent bet in the next, isn’t quite good enough, as it turns out, with The Famous Five having his measure by a short-head. The wife has backed the winner, too, a double kick in the Norbits, but Henry’s Friend prevailing an hour later ensures I won’t go home potless on the day.
The Challow is a cracker, with The New Lion looking every inch the top-class hurdler (and future chaser) he promised to be beforehand. He’s too good for them, far too good. Did I foresee him being sold within a week? Using the Yates' celebrations after as a guide, I did not.
It’s getting dark, and our Bank Holiday Bonanza Of Racing is coming to a close. With still little traffic on the roads, we head home via the M40 and A43. We’re within a couple of miles of the now defunct Towcester Racecourse at one point. Oh, how I wish that was still open. Finding slow horses is something I can do…
The M1 Northampton roadworks haven’t gone away. You can’t have everything, I suppose. Home for seven, and a chance to catch up with that missing Only Connect. I reckon we could do a racing version, if we put our minds to it. I’ve got some time on my hands this week now. I’ll have a think and get back to you in the next missive.
See you on a racecourse soon!
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Banbridge_KingGeorgeVChase_Kempton2024.jpg318830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2025-01-07 13:56:232025-01-07 13:56:23Roving Reports: Reflections from the Festivities
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
Not the biggest pot of the day, but heavy ground always interests me, so we're off to Newbury for six races starting with...
Leg 1 @ 1.25, a 9-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 6f...
No LTO winners, but Jr Climbs has a win and two places from his last four starts, Rock Hunter has made the frame in three of his five outings to date, The Hare Rail was a runner-up on his penultimate run and Art Design won two starts ago.
Priapos and Hackney Diamonds both won three starts ago, as did Emporess who has been runner-up in both starts since. Prosperitas has been third in two of his four starts so far and East Tyrone won five races ago, so all nine have already shown some aptitude.
Emporess probably brings the best recent form to the table, whilst Jr Climbs was a runner-up just a neck behind a subsequent Listed class winner last month. We've got heavy ground here, which will be right up in-form Emporess' street, whose recent run of form (122) is all on heavy...
...whilst the pace/draw heat map suggests that Priapos and Hackney Diamonds could go well here from the centre of the stalls...
Of this pair, I prefer (1) Priapos, who I'll take with (2) Jr Climbs and (8) Emporess
Leg 2 @ 2.00, a 10-runner, 2yo Fillies Listed race over 7f...
Another race where all ten runners have won at least once. Supermodel and Too Much Heaven both won on debut last time out (the latter here over course and distance), fast-finisher Saqqara Sands and Sea To Sky both won last time out after finishing as runners-up on debut and Isabella Castile has progressed with results reading 931. Naina was only 8th of 10 last time out, but that was a Group 3 race and prior to that run, she had won four of her previous five starts, all over today's trip.
Several of this field have already won on soft or heavy ground, including Too Much Heaven's four length win over track and trip on debut last month...
..and with the place pace/draw heat map also pointing towards (9) Too Much Heaven...
...I'll take her along with fast-finishing (6) Saqqara Sands and (8) Supermodel based on how she virtually glided across the mud at Haydock on debut a month ago on her way to a 3.5 length victory.
Leg 3 @ 2.34, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...
Civil Law was a runner-up last time piut and has a win and three places from his last five starts, but hasn't been seen for seven months. Arthurs Realm was third on his last outing and the consistent Indemnity has finished in the first three in seven of his eleven career runs, and was a runner-up beaten by just half a length on heavy ground at Salisbury at the start of the month.
3yo Sir Lowrys Pass has a win and a place from his last two, Nap hand won two starts ago, as did Pink Lily, whilst Desperate Dan's last four on turf read 2312 with the two latest runs seeing him win by five lengths at Nottingham and then go down by a nose at Windsor, both on heavy ground, as shown on Instant Expert...
...where Pink Lily's prowess over today's trip is also highlighted, but I point out that virtually all of that form is on good ground or on the A/W. Sir Lowry's Pass has got the 'lucky' first stall here and as a hold-up type, is put forward by our pace/draw heat map as a potential winner...
He has progressed well so far and with the promise of more to come, I'll take (5) Sir Lowry's Pass to go with the consistent (4) Indemnity and the in-form mud lover (10) Desperate Dan.
Leg 4 @ 3.10, a 9-runner, 2yo Group 3 stakes over 7f...
Only God Of War (won two starts ago), Panama Black (unplaced in both starts) and Star Anthem (won three starts ago) failed to win last time out. Make You Smile won on debut, Mirabeau seeks a hat-trick, Afentiko and Benevento are both 121 from their last three, whilst Bob Mali has won all three starts to date. Yaroogh is three from four in the UK and four from five overall.
Benevento has been entered for the Irish 2000 Guineas and comes here after winning a Listed race at Doncaster. The Waco Kid was third that day, a length and a quarter back, but he has won a Group 3 race since, so Benevento should fare well here.
Yaroogh also won a Listed race last time out, finishing 3.5 lengths clear of the field on heavy ground at Chantilly and these two wins are probably the best efforts produced by any of this field, whilst unbeaten Bob Mali comes here after three straight wins at increasingly higher grades, looking comfortable each time and he's two from two on heavy ground, so I take (2) Benevento, (3) Bob Mali and (9) Yaroogh here.
Leg 5 @ 3.45, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 3 stakes over 1m4f...
Al Aasy rarely runs a bad race and has made the frame in 15 of 21 career starts and has only failed to finish in the first two home once in his last eight outings when denied a clear run at Ascot just over a year ago. he has finished 112 in his last three runs, all at Group 3, so he's in prime form. Max Vega and Feigning Madness might need the run after six month absences and Salt bay has lost all nine races since winning on debut at Haydock over two years ago, leaving us with the Gosden pair Gods Window and Danielle as challengers to Al Aasy. The former comes here in the better form and will be a much bigger price, so I'll go with (5) Gods Window as backup to (1) Al Aasy.
Leg 6 @ 4.19, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo fillies novice stakes over 1m..
Help!
Brightandbeautiful was a well beaten 9th of 10 on debut four weeks ago and Celestial Pearl could only manage 10th of 15 on her racecourse bow a fortnight, leaving both of these vulnerable to any of the four debutants if they show any aptitude for racing at all.
Money isn't always everything, but That's Amore cost 180,000 Gns as a yearling and is a full sister to Persica who won a Listed race last month and competed at Group 1 on Champions Day last weekend and with Ralph Beckett's 2 yr olds making the frame in 170 of 338 starts since the start of 2023, winning 76 times, That's Amore is the one for me here.
Hatysa also cost a lost of money (280,000 Gns) and is by Sea The Stars out of Hazaranda, who is a half-sister to Harzand, who won a Leopardstown Group 3 race, the Derby and the Irish Derby on the bounce in 2016, so on breeding/cost (3) Hatysa is the alternate to (6) That's Amore
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Priapos, (2) Jr Climbs and (8) Emporess
Leg 2: (6) Saqqara Sands, (8) Supermodel and (9) Too Much Heaven
Leg 3: (4) Indemnity, (5) Sir Lowry's Pass and (10) Desperate Dan
Leg 4: (2) Benevento, (3) Bob Mali and (9) Yaroogh
Leg 5: (1) Al Aasy and (5) Gods Window
Leg 6: (3) Hatysa and (6) That's Amore
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
I realise that most people nowadays might not have more than a passing acquaintance with the 1960’s musical, The Sound of Music – although it’s part of the TV schedules every Christmas – but over this weekend I’ve had two of its best-known songs going constantly through my head, writes Tony Stafford.
Firstly, with the Festival now only four weeks away, there’s the title song which begins, well slightly amended: The hills are alive with the sound of Cheltenham.
And secondly and more appropriately for UK trainers: How do you solve a problem like Willie Mullins? (Maria, of course, speeding up problem!).
As ever, one name sticks out as the home antidote to the Willie Mullins epidemic of winners. That’s Nicky Henderson, now the wrong side of 70 but as he showed at Newbury on Saturday, he can see off the Irish maestro when he has the right horse.
Mullins didn’t bother to tackle Shishkin in the Denman Chase – it was left to a couple of Sir Alex Ferguson partnership horses, trained respectively by Paul Nicholls (Hitman) and Dan Skelton (Protektorat) to follow the Ascot-errant and still unforgiven for it Seven Barrows horse home.
From being an outstanding novice hurdler and then chaser, Shishkin has the Mullins-like career tally of 14 wins from 20 and would have made it 15 if he hadn’t lost his concentration and unseated Nico De Boinville at a messy penultimate-fence incident of which he was blameless, in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Willie kept his big boys at home, preferring instead to run most at the Dublin Festival last weekend. Gold Cup titleholder and next month’s favourite Galopin Des Champs stands firm at the head of the market at around even-money after his Irish Gold Cup win over Fastorslow, but if not quite breathing down his neck, Shishkin as a 9/1 shot doesn’t seem bad value each-way.
Mullins’ challenge for the Betfair Hurdle was a triple one and, of them, a newcomer from his favourite talent pool, ex-French Ocastle Des Mottes made a bookie-terrifying first run for the stable after a lengthy absence, but the 7/2 shot gave no indication on his French form that he had such a chance, running like it to finish only eighth. The other pair, Onlyamatteroftime, one of the best-backed on the day at 8/1, finished 18th while Alvaniy was pulled up.
Resplendent at the front of the race were the J P McManus colours, often connected to Mullins horses, but equally well-accustomed as representing Henderson. They came to the fore approaching the final flight of the Betfair Hurdle in the shape of Iberico Lord, and caught and outpaced Dan Skelton’s L’Eau Du Sud, a 28/1 shot and another in the Ferguson syndicate. They shelled out €740k for bright prospect Caldwell Potter last week. Sir Alex seemed to think they’d got a bargain - I suppose it might seem so compared with the cost of footballers these days or indeed tickets to last night’s Superbowl! Paul Nicholls will be training him.
This was the fifth win in the race for Henderson and considering he doesn’t blatantly lay out horses to benefit their handicap marks in the way that many trainers are obliged to given the state of UK prize money, he still wins stacks of them. Like Iberico Lord, they continue to improve through experience. lberico Lord has now won four of eight races and is sure to be in the field, and may be favourite, for the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. The runner-up will be at the meeting too, Dan Skelton being a wizard at winning Cheltenham handicaps, often under the noses of legions of Irish horses who clearly have been laid out for them.
I was surprised to see, on my latest excursion into the pages of Horses In Training 2023 – I always pick up the new one at Cheltenham – that while J P has 12 horses listed under the Henderson team, that represents only 8% of the trainer’s total of 142.
The next two Sound of Music songs I think apply to the same Nicky Henderson horse, not seen when expected for a warm-up race as he attempts to defend his Champion Hurdle title. Obviously for owner Michael Buckley, Henderson and De Boinville, you could say Constitution Hill is one of Their (My) Favourite Things and has Climb(ed) Every Mountain. As to Edelweiss, I’ve no idea how it fits in, except it’s a white flower and Buckley’s colours feature a white jacket.
I think my quick look through the races already priced up had nine Mullins horses at the head of their respective markets, although Ballyburn and Fact To File both have a second option. If the seven won – never mind any of the later closing races – that would be enough to take him past the century of winners at the Festival from his mark of 94.
Henderson stands 2nd on 73 and can be very hopeful with Royal Gino in the Triumph Hurdle after his easy demolition of Burdett Road in their trial over course and distance last month. The six Mullins juveniles that ran at Leopardstown last weekend have yet to show anything like that form.
Chances are spread over the four days for him, too, with Constitution Hill the banker. I cannot remember any horse being 4/1 on with a month to go in any Cheltenham race. That said, I believe he’s the best we’ve seen, so why not and the bookies are betting non-runner no bet, with no potential injury safely-value to fall back on. All set for Champion Hurdle number ten for Nicky and eat your heart out, Willie and State Man!
After the big two, Nicholls has had 48 Festival winners, but even though his stable is very solid and his jockey Harry Cobden gets the best out of everything he rides, he’s not the force of the Kauto Star/Denman era. Who could be? The old-time trainers used to spread the winners around a lot more when Cheltenham was three days of six races. Best of those was Fulke Walwyn on 40.
Next from today’s vintage comes Gordon Elliott on 37 and he will still be boiling after losing Caldwell Potter and quite a few more of his stars at the private disposal sale of the 29 horses owned by Andy and Gemma Brown, all sold without reserve at Tattersalls Ireland a week ago.
The Browns, who have a young family, have had some success over recent times but also devastating losses through injury and are taking some time out. Elliott did his best to get back his most treasured prospect, bidding €720,000 for Gigginstown House Stud, but Anthony Bromley stayed the pace to set a record for a jumper in training.
Getting back to the roll of Festival honour, of present-day trainers Jonjo O’Neil has 26, Henry de Bromhead 21 and Philip Hobbs 20. From Martin Pipe down – 34 wins – apart from Jonjo O’Neill on 26, it’s a parade of the great old-timers, showing it was never easy to win at this meeting, even more so with the fewer opportunities in their day.
Fred Winter had 28, Fred Rimell 27, Tom Dreaper, Arkle’s handler, equals Jonjo on 26, Vincent O’Brien 23 along with Bob Turnell and, from an earlier era, Ivor Anthony had 22, which bar the War would have been considerably more.
What is interesting is that Mullins has had 65 in the last ten years, which means only Henderson’s career tally matches that. The wonder is that he hasn’t done the brave thing that his peerless predecessor and compatriot Vincent O’Brien did and switch to the flat, although that could be because Ballydoyle hasn’t been available!
Vincent basically targeted the big races over jumps in the UK between 1948 and 1959, before opting out. He won three successive Champion Hurdles (all with Hatton’s Grace, 1949-51); four Cheltenham Gold Cups, three in a row 1948-50, and again in 1953 with different horses and three in the Grand National, a hat-trick from 1953-5. In the post-War years, the present-day Supreme Novices Hurdle was run in two divisions as the Gloucestershire Hurdle. Between 1952 and 1959 O’Brien won ten!
If he’d have continued until the 1990’s rather than becoming the best flat-race trainer in the world, he would probably have set a target even Willie Mullins would never have managed to match!
TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Shishkin_DesertOrchid_December2021.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2024-02-11 20:06:462024-02-11 20:06:46Monday Musings: The Sound of Music?
The mile handicap at Newbury staged at 2.25pm on Saturday looks a relatively solvable puzzle with 10 runners set to go to post and plenty of reliable form on offer.
There are some top trainers represented here so let’s see how they have performed in Newbury handicaps over the past 5 years:
Trainer record in Newbury handicaps for trainers represented in this race
As you can see, William Haggas and Roger Charlton not only stand out from a win percentage perspective (30.91% and 26.67% respectively) but they are also the top trainers with representatives in this race when it comes to P&L (48.63 and 22.38 respectively). They are the only two of these trainers to have been profitable to follow blindly in handicaps.
Looking at class 2 handicaps specifically now:
Trainer record at Newbury in class 2 handicaps
Roger Charlton now jumps ahead of William Haggas with a 38.46% strike rate which is almost 3 times as strong as that of Haggas. Charlton is the only one of these trainers producing a profit in class 2 handicaps at Newbury and a very healthy profit at that (31 win profit).
The data is a bit more limited here but it certainly seems Roger Charlton is sending his better handicappers to Newbury whereas Haggas is mopping up some of the lower grade handicaps.
Let’s take a look at the runners from the Haggas and Charlton yards in this race. William Haggas runs Jahbath whilst Roger Charlton saddles Tempus.
Jahbath is 4 from 5 on the all weather and 0 from 2 on turf but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His turf runs have bookended his career to date with his debut effort coming at Salisbury in a race where he only narrowly lost out to Clara Peeters who would go on to rate in the high 80s. He was conceding experience and 6lbs on that day so it was clearly a strong effort.
His most recent turf run came after a 476 day break and although beaten more than 5 lengths, he was a creditable enough 4th on soft ground at Haydock over this one mile trip. How much he’ll improve with that run under his belt on slightly better ground is difficult to gauge.
Tempus hasn’t run for 302 days which is an unknown so it’s worth comparing Roger Charlton’s record with fresh horses in handicaps with his overall handicap record.
Roger Charlton's record in handicaps since 2009 with runners returning from a 60+ day break
Roger Charlton's record in handicaps since 2009 with all runners
Since 2009 Roger Charlton has had 294 handicap runners returning from a 60+ day break and they have produced a 16.67% win rate and a 50.18 win P&L. Comparing that to all his handicap runners in this time, the strike rate is slightly improved at 17.95% but the P&L is –48.43. The market is clearly underestimating Roger Charlton horses after a break. It’s worth noting of course that a 302 day break is pretty extreme and the horse has obviously had some issues keeping him off the track.
Tempus has only had one run in handicap company and that was a slightly disappointing 4th, beaten 1.5 lengths at Wolverhampton over their extended mile. He had previously beaten Lyndon B, subsequently rated 97, giving that horse 6lbs. Given Tempus only has a mark of 91 it’s probably a fair assumption that the most recent run wasn’t his best form and whatever issue caused him to miss 10 months of racing probably affected him during that race.
Roger Charlton’s record in Newbury handicaps, and Newbury class 2 handicaps in particular, are quite enlightening. The fact that the market seems to be offering value on his runners after a break adds confidence to the feeling that Tempus might be underestimated here. His most recent turf effort, in testing conditions, suggests he is well handicapped and he could take all the beating in this race on Saturday afternoon, which is live on ITV Racing.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Headman_LondonGoldCup.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-08-14 11:36:592020-08-15 10:28:12Trainer Stats Point To Tempus In Mile Handicap
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