2-Year-Old Handicaps: Nurseries Part 2
This is the second article examining nursery handicaps – handicaps for 2-year-olds, writes Dave Renham. In the first piece, I looked at various factors, including the betting market, position last time out (LTO), the sex of the horse, weight carried, career starts, and run style. You can read that one here.
In this second article, I will look at fitness in terms of when their most recent run was, LTO price, and trainers, amongst other things. The data are sourced from the last nine seasons of UK flat and all-weather racing (2015 to 2023), and profits and losses are quoted to Industry SP. I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.
Days since last run
This is a metric most punters take notice of. The general pattern for all flat races is that the shorter the time since racing, the higher the strike rate. However, the market is well-adjusted to this and prices are usually balanced accordingly. Let’s see, though, whether an edge can be found, either positive or negative, from the 2yo nursery stats:
The strike rate pattern can be seen here, as mentioned above. Horses returning to the track within five days are comfortably hitting the best strike rate but are the third worst in SP returns. They also provided the worst returns to BSP of all the groupings. The one group to avoid, though, is the group that has had the longest time off the track (61+ days). These have offered the worst returns, the lowest strike rate, and the lowest A/E index.
Surface switch (or not)
I want to share some data on what surface the nursery was run on (e.g. turf or all weather) compared with the horses' previous start. Hence, there are four possible combos to look at:
So, what do the stats say? The A/E indices suggest that one of the four combinations offers far better value than the other three. The graph below shows the figures:
Horses switching from a run on the all-weather LTO to the turf this time have offered punters by far the best value. This is also reflected in the returns for both SP and BSP.
The Flat / LTO AW figures for SP returns are better by over 7p in the £ than the other three. In addition, the BSP returns are positive at around 5.5 pence in the £. This is probably due to the market slightly downgrading the chances of young horses switching from the sand to the turf. With limited race experience on both surfaces, it can be challenging for bookmakers to price up these surface switchers accurately.
LTO Race Type
Next, look at the LTO Race Type, splitting by handicap vs. non-handicap.
It has been a slight advantage for nursery runners to have run in a nursery handicap on their most recent start. Regarding non-handicaps LTO, you might want to avoid any horse coming from a claimer, as they would have lost you 77p in the £. Also, horses coming from sellers have done poorly, losing over 32p in the £.
LTO Price
I often look at this metric: the price of the horse on its last run. To begin with, I will look at some LTO Starting Price Bands, focusing on the value metric, which is the A/E index:
When examining last day starting price, we see a scenario similar to the one in the first article – the maxim is the shorter, the better. Horses priced up 6/4 or shorter on their most recent start are ones to watch closely. Backing these runners blind to SP would have yielded a slight loss, but to BSP a return of nearly 6p in the £ would have been achieved. Also, if you had been a bit more selective with these 6/4 or less LTO runners, sticking to those that started in single figures next time, then you would have been rewarded with 177 wins from 689 runners (SR 25.7%) for a BSP profit of £85.84 (ROI +12.5%). You would have also made a profit to SP with these runners to the tune of £27.27 (ROI +4.0%).
Class Change
Does a change in class of race make any difference? Here are the splits:
There is not much to choose between the three here, although the ROI% is better for class droppers. Class droppers have been profitable at Betfair SP but these results have been skewed by several high prices hitting the mark.
Trainers
My final port of call is to look at trainers. Firstly, let me examine the trainers who had at least 70 nursery runners during the study period and obtained a strike rate of 14% or higher. I have ordered them by win strike rate:
Ten trainers have managed a profit of which eight have an A/E index above 1.00. All eight of these trainers should be classed as positive in these races. I will revisit some of these in a minute, but before then, onto those trainers who have recorded a strike rate of below 8%:
All eleven in this table have seen losses of over 40 pence in the £ to £1 level stakes, and I would be avoiding these trainers in nurseries unless some other impressive stats could convince me otherwise.
As often with trainer data, to avoid high prices potentially skewing profits let me focus on trainer performance with runners that started in single figures (e.g. 9/1 or less). For this group I have relaxed the qualifier restriction to 50, including 48 trainers that had at least 50 qualifiers by using this price restriction:
Ralph Beckett has the stand-out single price stats, producing returns just shy of 26p in the £. He also has an excellent A/E index of 1.21. Breaking down his results for these 9/1 or shorter nursery contenders, I notice that his male runners have completely outgunned the female ones. The first article noted that male horses comfortably outperformed their female counterparts in mixed-sex nurseries. Here, the contrast is even more stark. His male horses (when 9/1 or shorter) have won over 31% of their starts returning 47p in the £; his female runners within the same price bracket have won just 18% and would have lost you over 6p in the £.
The stats are also very interesting for Beckett when looking at ALL his runners across ALL SP prices – we see the following based on A/E indices:
There are no winners in the 10/1+ bracket – he is 0 from 48 with only two placed. The message is clear – any Beckett runners priced 9/1 or shorter should offer excellent value; any priced 10/1 or bigger offers little or no value.
Returning to the latest table, other trainers to keep on the right side would be Sir Mark Prescott, Rod Millman, Ed Walker, Archie Watson, and runners from the Crisford stable. I would also keep an eye out for all the others highlighted in blue near the top of the table.
I think any trainer in the bottom quarter of the table whose A/E index is under 0.75 should be treated with caution.
Five Key Trainer Angles
Before finishing, I would like to share five of the most vital trainer stats I could find:
1. Charlie Appleby at Newmarket has secured 14 wins from 37 (SR 37.8%) for an SP profit of £13.29 (ROI +35.9%).
2. At Grade 1 tracks (Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown, and York), the Crisford stable has won 10 of 30 starts (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £17.91 (ROI +57.9%). This is an excellent effort considering these nurseries are some of the most competitive.
3. George Boughey has a strike rate of 41.8% with nursery favourites (28 wins from 67) for a profit of £12.65 (ROI +18.9%).
4. Ralph Beckett has an excellent record with LTO winners thanks to 14 wins from 37 runners (SR 37.8%) for a profit of £19.63 (ROI +53.1%).
5. Tom Dascombe, like Beckett, has done well with winners LTO, scoring 33.3% of the time (18 from 54) for a profit of £43.67 (ROI +80.9%).
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That concludes my analysis of nursery handicaps, which are a betting medium that can certainly form a part of one’s betting portfolio. I hope some of these angles can give you that vital edge over the crowd.
-DR
