Tag Archive for: Punting Confessional

The Punting Confessional: Final Thoughts on Video Analysis

/in /by
Punting Confessional: Video Analysis

Punting Confessional: Video Analysis

Tony Keenan has been guiding us through his whole process of race watching and note taking, followed by showing us how he analyses and uses the information gleaned. He concludes this process today by adding his final thoughts on video analysis in...

...The Punting Confessional – Wednesday 12th December, 2012

To conclude this short series on video analysis, let’s look at two final aspects of the process: ascertaining ease of victory and the role of attitude. The former is an intangible factor and that’s not necessarily a bad thing as it means the market can be slow to cotton on to it. Basically you’re looking for a result where the margin of victory doesn’t reflect the ease of victory and this can be for many reasons.

Has the horse only got racing room near the finish and quickened up well?
Has there been shuffling at a key earlier part in the race?
Has the pace scenario in one way or another masked the winner’s superiority?
Has the horse simply idled in the finish, taking the mickey out of its opposition?
With regard to the last type, I particularly like strong travellers who cruise through the race, pick up well and then are happy that they have done enough.

All this needs to be married to more traditional form study; again the point needs to be made that video analysis is just another type of form study. You need to compare how the horse won to the rise it has taken in the weights; I’m talking handicaps here where I do most of my punting. Ratings are the key for handicap punters and I’m not so much interested in the weight a horse carries as its mark and what that mark says about class and where it can compete next time.

Keeping an eye on the grade of race a horse competes in is important; for instance, a horse getting a hike from 65 to 76 can be a killer as it is has to jump from the bottom level to a 0-85, missing out the 0-75 in between. This is where wide-margin, last time out winners who are invariably sent off a short price may be worth opposing and in the main I prefer those that win narrowly so they can rise through the grades gradually.

If I have one rule in punting, it is this: never back a dog.

Rules are meant to be broken and there are times when I break this one but over time it has proven to work for me. I don’t find maidens all that interesting for betting purposes but they can be informative for the future as you can spot horses that aren’t giving their all. When reviewing any race, our eyes are naturally drawn to the first few horses, but we should also try to register what is going on down the field because the horse that was sent off 33/1 in the maiden could be an 8/1 shot in its first handicap despite being an utter rogue and can thus be rule out.

The signs of a dodge are well-known: awkward head carriage (whether high or to the side), hanging when asked for an effort or given the whip, finding little, swishing the tail.

I’m not at all forgiving when it comes to horses that have shown temperament and probably miss out on the odd winner as a result but I suspect I back more winners because of it as I am always against fancied horses that have an attitude. There can be many causes for a horse showing attitude but I’m less interested in that than the effect, i.e. that dogs don’t win as often as they should, are invariably involved in the finish without getting their head in front and as such take up a disproportionate chunk of the market.

It’s fair to say that every dog has its day – and that’s become more common in Ireland in recent years as the competitiveness of our racing has dropped somewhat – but it’s best to think long-term with them. One final point on dogs; just because a horse doesn’t show temperament every day it runs does not mean it is a reformed character. It may just be a case that it hasn’t had a chance to given the way the race has unfolded. There are some leopards that change their spots but they are the exception rather than the rule.

To conclude, I want to say that I am no expert in the area of video analysis; indeed, I am a learner but what I do know is what the market tends to underestimate. If you want to learn more, much more, about this approach then I suggest buying a copy of Andrew Beyer’s ‘The Winning Horseplayer’ and focusing on the section about trip handicapping, his term for video analysis. The book may take all its examples from America but offers huge insight into racing over here too.

If you prefer a more visual approach to this, I advise watching Hugh Taylor’s weekly attheraces slot ‘The Form Factor’ aired on Wednesday on Sky channel 415 around midday. It is filled with object lessons on how to spot eyecatchers and clear examples are given on clips, all explained in a cogent manner.

All this said one doesn’t want to become a slave to video analysis. Certainly these eyecatchers have market value and are an underrated angle but sometimes even they are overbet. Don’t forget value is the all-important concept and always be price-sensitive. Sometimes a simple formbook case will present better value than an eyecatcher and try to remain flexible in your thinking.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

The Punting Confessional: When and where to bet?

/in /by
When and where to bet?

When and where to bet?

Last week, Tony Keenan talked of the importance of getting the right price for your selection. He continues that theme by exploring the timing of your bets and where you should be putting them on, as this week's Punting Confessional comes from..

...Killarney – September 4th

I had a few quid on Bitsanbobs win and place in the mile maiden at this rescheduled fixture and the 4yo is just the sort of horse I like backing for a number of reasons.

Being trained by Andy Oliver is key as not only is he an up-and-coming handler that the market seems to underrate a little but also his horses are rarely too strong in the betting, the antithesis of those runners from well-known gambling stables I said I generally wanted to be against last week. Bitsanbobs ran a fair race in third but the interesting thing about him was his price; drifting from a morning bookmaker show of around 12/1 to a Betfair SP of 25.47 and 4.9 in the place.

Such a market move would not be atypical for an Oliver horse and there are a number of stables like him in Ireland – notably Ger Lyons and David Marnane – that tend not to ‘go for’ their horses all that strongly; when a stable’s runners tend not to attract money it makes it easier to get on as they may drift on the exchanges and there will likely be less need to chase a price around in the morning. Of course, these are all general points, as there will be times when these trainers try to get a few quid but it the exception rather than the rule.

Speaking of rules, another simple one is to practice patience when you want to back an outsider. In the main, waiting for Betfair near the off is the way to play things with any horse priced in double figures as the nature of the exchange model means that the discrepancies at the bigger prices will be much greater than at the front end. This applies particularly to runners from small yards as they simply don’t have the punters or the money attached to them to compress a price unless there is a serious touch afoot. Holding on until the last minute with a rag and pulling the trigger on a bet in the final sixty seconds before the off is often the best way to play it though again I stress this is only a general rule.

At the risk of stating the bloody obvious, there are two totally different markets for every race: the morning prices provided by the bookies and the exchange market near the off (and in Irish racing, I’m really only talking about the 10 minutes before they jump as this is when the proper money comes in). I wouldn’t even mention the on-course market in Ireland such are the larcenous percentages the layers there bet to; you wouldn’t pay €1.10 for a litre of milk if you could get it for a euro elsewhere?

I think there are probably two optimum times to make a bet in the day. The first is early in the morning between 10am and 11am when a range of bookmakers have priced but have yet to cut their odds. At this point, you are playing your opinion against the odds compilers which is a good position to be in as they’re often wrong, the strength of the big firms’ risk management these days being much more about identifying winning punters and restricting/closing their accounts rather than any traditional bookmaking nous. The obvious problem with playing at this time is getting on and any remotely skilled punter can expect difficulties in this area, particularly in Irish racing where many of the layers seem bet-shy.

The other good time to play is in the final 10 minutes before the off on the exchanges where there can be wild fluctuations in price that make horses that previously looked unappealing become interesting as they drift; one does have to be wary of the ‘slot machine’ mentality here as I’ve written about before. In this case, it’s more that you have the percentages in your favour than backing against another person’s opinion; on Betfair and the like the market will be priced to a tight 104-5% depending on your commission which is often better than the combined prices of all the bookmakers in the morning. Again however, there are problems with this as the price about your fancy may well have contracted and you may have to take a shorter price now though you can probably get on what you like given the sums that are swilling around. The ideal scenario for any punter is to have access to both markets but increasingly winners are being driven towards the exchanges; if I have a preference for one over the other it would be Betfair though that has been born of necessity.

The timing of one striking a bet is thus very important and one thing I tend not to do is back a steamer during the day after the price has shortened. Not only will the value likely have gone (though this is not always the case) but more importantly it is likely the horse will drift again near the off; I find it rare that one will be hammered both in the morning and at the time of the race as in most cases other horses will be backed at this point and the earlier steamer may take a walk. By backing such horses during the day, you’re taking what is often the basement price and no matter how good you are at the form it is hard to turn a profit betting like this.

One relatively recent development, particularly on the Irish scene, has been the arrival of evening or night-before prices with a small number of firms pricing up the better handicaps or group races for the following day. When this began, one would see a number of horses being backed and dramatically so in the evening but this pattern seems on the wane now as realistically no reasonable-stakes punter can get on; if you think the morning limits are bad in Ireland, you should try the to get a decent bet on the night before. I think most punters don’t even bother to try to get on at these prices now and just hope that some small player doesn’t ruin the odds before morning.

Playing to any sort of civilised stake in the night-before markets is one of the easiest ways to spoil an account; you need to ask yourself, what sort of punter wants to make a bet at this early stage if not a clued-in one with his homework done? For a punter playing the long game, getting longevity out of accounts is important, all the more now as the firms will use any excuse to close one.

A final point on night-before prices: playing at this time can be a case of fools rushing in. In the main, it is best to have a spread of prices in front of you than just the offers of two or three bookmakers. This is not to say that the two or three bookmakers won’t make a mistake as they certainly will but they will have a large percentage factored in to allow for errors; as I write the night before the Kilbeggan meeting on September 7th, one firm as an 8-runner race priced up to 123% and a 17-runner affair priced to 159% and it’s not easy to win with those figures. Clearly, you’ll call a few wrong with such an approach but long-term it should pay off.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

The Punting Confessional: The Price is Right?

/in /by
The Price is Right?

The Price is Right?

And we don't mean that terribly tacky game show we imported from the States in the 1980's. In this week's Punting Confessional, Tony Keenan explains how to get the right price for your wagers and the importance of doing so, using a couple of examples from...

...Killarney, August 30th

I had a pair of bets at this mixed meeting last Thursday, Alla Speranza at 10/1 and Authorization at 16/1, both at morning prices, with the former finishing up at 8/1 and the latter at 5/1, with respective Betfair Starting Prices of 12.o and 7.7 (I include the BSPs as they tend to give a fairer reflection of the market than the larcenous percentages bet to by the Irish on-course layers). Certainly, they performed in contrast to market expectations, Alla Speranza going down by less than a length despite being stagnant at best while the gamble on Authorization went astray as he finished fifth. It was yet another example of how drifters and steamers often perform in contrast to what the betting said beforehand and that the market gets it wrong frequently.

Getting the best price about a horse should of course be every punter’s aim and certainly one can develop a gut feeling for the sort of horses that are consistently under- and overrated by the market. Achieving this aim alone could help a few punters reach profitability while it would certainly limit the losses of all. It is worth remembering however that no one can get price-taking right the whole time; it is impossible to call the market correctly the whole time (unless you are putting down such substantial bets that you are influencing the entire thing) so resign yourself to a number of incorrect calls.

A good general rule to apply is that if you are satisfied the price is value, then take it unless you have good reason to believe you will get a bigger one by waiting (more of this anon). Remember that if you think a horse is overpriced and have a track record of calling these things correctly the chances are others will hold the same opinion. One needs something of substance to base this judgement call on; your own tissue prices are the obvious place to start or at least some sort of target price that has been ascertained before you see the available odds.

One thing that won’t help you after you have taken a price is to continually check the odds of your selection and whether it is shortening or drifting; the psychological theory of investment (as I read in a book called ‘Nudge’) suggests that when we continually checks whether the value of our investment is rising or falling, it affects our attitude to risk, making us more risk-averse, clearly not what one wants as a gambler. I do acknowledge that this is something of a double-edged sword as a punter has to check prices as part of their routine but it is worth being aware of the psychological problems this can cause.

With calling the market, one needs to be aware of the various influences on it and by so doing one can improve their market reading. Tipping services are the most obvious place to start and the main ones have a huge influence. Pricewise in the Racing Post is the daddy of them all in terms of power but one thing I find hard to listen to is punters continually bemoaning Tom Segal putting up one of their fancies and contracting the price. With Pricewise, punters know the sort of race Segal will be tipping on – usually the big handicaps or group races of the day – and if you are concerned about him giving your selection then you need to get on the night before; with this sort of race, the markets are available from the day before the race if not even earlier so there is no excuse for not having at least half the stake on before the day of the race.

In reality, Segal’s doings have no real impact on my daily punting as he rarely does Irish racing and Gary O’Brien of attheraces has a much bigger influence on the market, not least because most of the Irish morning prices are fragile. One needs to be aware of the time his tips go up – usually between 10.30am and 11am though not always – and keep an eye on the ATR website. In fairness to O’Brien, the prices of the horses he tips don’t tend to contract instantly so one has a chance to get; from what I can gather this is not the case with the tips of Hugh Taylor whose selections have their prices cut to ribbons within seconds.

With O’Brien, as with any tipster for that matter, it can be useful to pre-empt his selections. Oftentimes he will go for the same type of horse, if not the same horse itself as he has done with something like Sure Reef in 2012; he has put that one up at least four times this year so if you fancied it, it was one to get on early. Pricewise Extra, usually released at midday on the day of the race is another tipping service that has power, notably so when Segal is in situ.

An awareness of stables that like to back their horses, and perhaps more importantly when they like to do so, is another skill of the good market reader. I am not so much talking about traditional gambling yards like those of Charles Byrnes or Tony Martin; horses from that sort of stable are underpriced as a rule and are ones to be against in most cases though they train mainly over jumps so are of little interest to me. Of course, all stables back their horses to some degree or another, some a lot more expertly than others, and if you intend backing one of their runners it’s important to know their modus operandi.

For example, the Reggie Roberts yard seem to have a clear method behind their gambles; they want to get on as early as possible with the morning prices, often long before all the layers have priced up, though I can’t really see this as a good strategy as the limits at this time of the day tend to be restrictive. They landed one such gamble this past weekend with Timeless Call at Dundalk. The Kevin Prendergast stable tend to back their better 2yos early in the morning too and often it is a case that no price is short enough about an unraced sort – see Nurpur earlier in the year at Leopardstown. In such cases, they often become insensitive to price and silly season kicks in so as a rule it’s probably best to oppose them though it should be pointed out that the usefulness of this approach is not what it was with the yard not having so many winners these days.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns