Tag Archive for: Ralph Beckett

Non-handicap juveniles in late turf season

/in /by

Blink and you’ve missed it. Yes, the British summer is coming to an end, and horse racing is soon to be heading into the last two full months of the turf season, writes Dave Renham. In this article my focus is from the start of September to the end of the turf flat season which is about a week into November. I want to concentrate on two-year-old (2yo) turf non-handicaps in the UK during this time frame. Data has been collected from 2015 to 2023 with profits/losses quoted to Industry Starting Price. Betfair SP figures will be quoted if appropriate.

Some of the larger stables send their better 2yos out at this time of the year so the trainer findings should be interesting. However, let's begin with the betting market.

Betting Markets

For this section I have combined ‘joints’ so for example the favourite includes clear favs, joint and co favs, etc. I want to start by looking at the value metric of A/E indices – here are my findings:

 

 

Favourites tend to offer more value than punters realise, but the gap between favourites and second favourites in this juvenile non-handicap context is much bigger than we usually see. Taking such runners across all months over the last nine seasons the A/E index for favs is 0.92 and second favs is 0.88. The gap between the two is more than twice this in the latter months of the sample years, as you can see in the graph (0.94 v 0.84).

Let me compare the returns to SP and the strike rates now:

 

 

Favourites have been winning close to 40% of the time and have been twice as successful as second favourites in terms of strike rate. Losses to SP have seen favourites lose only 6.7% compared with second favourites 17.3%, showing strong correlation to the earlier A/E index chart. To Betfair SP favourites would have lost you only 3.5p for every £1 bet and in three of the nine years they would have made a profit. Once we get to fifth or bigger in the betting the winning chances become very low indeed, and they offer horrendous value.

Sticking with favourites here are some additional stats to share:

1. Favourites starting at less than 1.50 have won 80.2% of the time (77 wins from 96) for a profit of £5.07 (ROI +5.3%).

2. Female favourites have broken even to BSP.

3. There are not many 2yo races that are longer than a mile, but when the distance hits 1-mile ½ furlong or more, favourites have won 76 of their 181 starts (SR 42%) for a small profit to SP to £7.10 (ROI +3.9%). To BSP after commission you would have had another 59p in your pocket on top of that!

4.  Favourites at this time of the year who are unraced or have had just one previous career run have provided the worst value. This group have provided 910 qualifiers of which 323 won (SR 35.5%) and backing all would have seen losses to SP of £117.03 (ROI -12.9%). To BSP losses are still edging to 10%.

5. In Class 1 or 2 races favourites have almost broken even to SP losing just 1p in the £ and turning a small profit to BSP.

 

Position Last Time Out (LTO)

Onto a look at the most recent piece of form based on finishing position.

 

 

Perhaps the takeaway stat is for last time runners-up. They have the strongest figures across the board. In terms of A/E indices, the best value may lie with LTO 2nds, 3rds and 4ths. It looks best to avoid horses that finished fifth or worse LTO and also debutants (the ‘no run’ group). LTO winners have a relatively modest record, too, and don’t look a solid play in the round.

 

Female runners

I want to briefly share some interesting filly (female) data. Earlier it was noted that female horses when favourite have performed well. Now I want to look at these runners as a whole group, and specifically their record when running against their own sex as compared to when running against the ‘boys’. Here are the splits:

 

 

There is a clear pattern here where female runners fare better when racing against their own sex. They have a much-improved strike rate in these races and, more importantly, losses are 16p in the £ better to both Industry SP and Betfair SP.

If we look at mixed sex races in a bit more detail, we can see that the higher percentage of male rivals there are, the harder it becomes for the females. The graph below shows the win strike rate across different percentage bands of male runners:

 

 

Once we hit over 75% of the runners in the race being male, the chance for any female runner becomes very slim in terms of winning. If we now look at the return on investment figures now, we can see that once more than half of the runners are male, females would have lost you a considerable amount of money:

 

 

So, the data is clear when it comes to considering female runners in 2yo non-handicaps on the turf at this time of year: generally stick to races against their own sex, or if considering a wager in a mixed sex race make sure that most runners in the race are female.

 

Trainers

Onto the area of greatest interest to me trainers. Here are the top performing trainers in terms of strike rate – 20 in total. To qualify they must have had at least 100 runners (ordered by win strike rate):

 

 

It is quite surprising to see nine of the twenty with a profit to industry SP, and a further two (Beckett and Varian) hitting a plus to BSP. Charlie Appleby has the best strike rate but has offered punters quite poor value. Saeed bin Suroor stats should be treated with caution as since 2020 he has had only 19 runners.

I thought it would be interesting to compare the records of these trainers with that of their earlier season form, i.e. their 2yo turf non-handicap record between March and August. I have created a table comparing A/E indices and strike rates over the two monthly groupings:

 

 

I should mention average field sizes are notably larger later in the season (9.5 v 8.7) which means we should expect lower strike rates in the Sept-Nov group. However, that factor is the same for all trainers so each individual handler comparison is fair.

Looking at the table, the numbers for two of the trainers have inspired me to do a deeper dive on each. Firstly, the Gosden stable. Their A/E index is much better from September onwards as is their strike rate (despite the bigger fields). Hence, after doing some digging here are strongest stats for the Clarehaven Stables yard:

1. There are three courses that stand out. Firstly Newmarket, despite the quality of 2yos on show at this time of the year. Team Gosden has saddled an impressive 35 winners from 177 runners (SR 19.8%) for a profit of £10.35 (ROI +5.9%) – A/E 1.07. Newbury has provided excellent results, too, returning over 26p in the £ from an impressive 29.6% strike rate (13 from 44). Yarmouth is the third track to mention with 13 wins from 50 (SR 26%) for a profit of £19.46 (ROI +38.9%). The BSP returns have naturally been even better.

2. Both male and female runners from the stable have proved profitable to back blind and their strike rates have been virtually the same at 22.7% and 22.3%.

3. Sticking with gender and looking now at the ‘sex of race’, the Gosden stable has done especially well when their horses stick to same sex races as the table below shows.

 

 

Based on these figures, I would be ideally looking for same sex races if wanting to back a Gosden runner.

4. The team is 9 from 17 in Group 2 races. A small sample, but worth sharing.

 

Onto the second trainer I want to highlight - Ralph Beckett. Let’s share some Autumn 2yo turf non handicap stats:

1. Take note of any Beckett favourite, the stats are eye-watering – 45 wins from just 87 favs (SR 51.7%) for a profit of £35.51 (ROI +40.8%). The A/E index stands at a crazy 1.33.

2. If the yard has sent the 2yo over 200 miles that looks material. There have been 83 such runners of which 29 won (SR 34.9%) for a profit of £18.38 (ROI +22.1%). For the record Beckett is 6 from 10 at Pontefract, and 5 from 11 at York.

3. Female runners from the Beckett barn have been the stars scoring over 21% of the time. In fillies’ only contests they have returned 8.5p in the £ to SP, 20p in the £ to BSP.

4. Take serious note if the money seems to be coming for their runners. Horses that have started at a shorter SP compared to the Early Morning Odds have produced superb figures – 62 winners from 214 runners (SR 29%) for a healthy profit of £83.34 (ROI +38.9%). To BSP this increase to +£114.75 (ROI +53.6%).

 

The latter months of the season can be a challenge for punters especially with the weather becoming less predictable; two-year-old races especially can seem a minefield. However, the findings in this piece should help to point us in the right direction.

- DR

 

Monday Musings: Dry Summer Frankie’s Downfall?

/in /by

The only people with a worse record than racecourse tipsters must be the weather forecasters who, in the early summer of 2022, have repeatedly predicted copious amounts of rainfall, only most often to have to admit they were wrong, writes Tony Stafford.

The latest example to affect me, or rather not, was Friday’s warning of serious flooding in East London and most of Essex and no doubt elsewhere. We barely saw a drop. Neither did they the previous week at Royal Ascot. Had the predicted precipitation happened, Frankie Dettori might still have been in a job.

It all revolved around Trueshan, three times the victor in tussles with Stradivarius, twice in the Long Distance Cup (Group 2) at Ascot in October 2020 and 2021 and also in the Group 1 Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp a couple of weeks before their second Ascot encounter.

Twice in the week before last Alan King and the owners of Trueshan agonised long and late about whether to allow the six-year-old to take his place in the field, in the Gold Cup on the Thursday and then in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, the meeting finale a couple of days later.

Probably an hour and a half before the Saturday race first Andrew Gemmell, one of the ownership group in Trueshan, walked past my table in the owners’ restaurant – I hasten to add I was a guest, not an owner! – and upon my question: “Does he run?” replied, “I don’t know.”

Maybe half a minute later, King came along the same pathway between the tables and gave a resigned shake of the head, not emphatic, but close enough. No Queen Alex or Gold Cup, so they would have to wait for the Northumberland Plate, a race in which he’d finished sixth 12 months earlier running off 118.

Since Newcastle he had been unbeaten in four races, the Goodwood Cup preceding the two Stradivarius defeats and a Listed prep when accounting for Hughie Morrison’s subsequent Henry II Stakes winner, Quickthorn, comfortably over an inadequate 1m6f at Nottingham in April.

In some ways it was difficult to suggest he should be running off just a 2lb higher mark on Saturday, but he was actually having to carry a full 9lb more as Alan King chose to take 5lb off his back last year, employing talented claimer Rhys Clutterbuck.

This time he allowed Hollie Doyle to retain her partnership with the gelding and as this year’s race was effectively 2lb inferior in quality, he carried the almost unfathomable weight of 10st 8lb. That he should come through and win merely made a certainty in retrospect that he would have beaten Kyprios, 2021 Derby and St Leger runner-up Mojo Star, and his “bunny”, Stradivarius.

But of course in the interim, by the time Trueshan did get his day in the Gosforth Park sun, Dettori had already been dumped by John and Thady Gosden as they and owner Bjorn Neilsen refused to compromise their dissatisfaction for his Gold Cup ride. It seemed they preferred to judge him on a single ride against the 15 wins in 24 previous associations between the eight-year-old entire horse and 51-year-old rider.

The various statements from Gosden senior showed only irritation at Dettori’s perceived allowing his mount to drift back in the field at a crucial stage. I and many people close to where I watched the race were admiring of Ryan Moore’s tactical nous in preventing Dettori’s getting out as he attempted to switch off the inside.

One man’s meat is another man’s poison. If Trueshan had been able to run, Stradivarius would probably have played one of his bum notes. Winning the Plate off 10st 8lb, conceding 28lb to the regally-bred five-times-winning stayer Spirit Mixer and 18 others should ensure a few pounds more to his mark tomorrow morning.

Over the years the Gosden axe has fallen on a number of jockeys. There is no doubt – and Frankie’s reception after his win from his sole ride at Newmarket on Saturday when he was eviscerated from two Gosden horses demonstrated as much – where the public sentiments lie. Could you imagine Big John, or even Thady, jumping off a horse in a winner’s enclosure? Silly observation? Never have I said anything sillier!

Trueshan’s performance was exceptional and confirmed once again that Alan King is a masterful trainer, equally adept at the top table on the flat as over the jumps where his talent was honed at the side of the much-missed David Nicholson. I only have to mention the Duke’s name to feel again the pain of his weighty right boot crashing against my shin bone when we met on the soccer field a lifetime ago.

Newcastle provided a tasty aperitif to an equally remarkable result in the Irish Derby, won by an eye-opening seven lengths by the Ralph Beckett-trained and Juddmonte-owned Frankel colt, Westover.

Third to the unbeaten Desert Crown in the Derby at Epsom when denied a run at a crucial stage in the last two furlongs, he had been only mildly supported as a 25-1 shot with his rating of 109. That was raised by 7lb before Saturday, and it will be intriguing where Dominic Gardner-Hill rates him in relation to Sir Michael Stoute’s colt tomorrow.

I would imagine Beckett, who until last autumn had dealt exclusively with fillies for his Group 1 successes, would love to take on Desert Crown again. On Saturday Westover had Piz Badile, a disappointment at Epsom, well beaten in second while it may not be a reliable line to point to Oaks winner Tuesday, who finished in a well-beaten fourth.

Joint-favourite with the winner, it was her turn to have a less than perfect run round under Ryan Moore. I doubt that Aidan O’Brien or the Coolmore owners will be looking to sever their association with their retained jockey who has been riding at the top of his game this year.

Last October, Beckett sent his two-year-old Angel Bleu on two trips to France and he came back with Group 1 wins in the  Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc Day at Longchamp and the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. He has yet to match that form in two runs since, including behind Coroebus at Royal Ascot.

Scope, a Teofilo three-year-old, collected the Prix Royal-Oak (Group 1) at Longchamp late that month in the style of a potential top stayer. There was nothing in his promising second over a short for him mile-and-a-half in a Newbury Group 3 last month to suggest he might not be up there challenging Trueshan, Kyprios, and Mojo Star, not to mention Stradivarius, for the remainder of an interesting season for the stayers.

The first of the one mile Classics were run less than two months ago but already we are getting word of possible Ballydoyle colts and fillies with aspirations of winning next year’s Guineas races.

Auguste Rodin, beaten on debut at the beginning of June, but a son of Deep Impact out of the multiple Group 1 winner Rhododendron (by Galileo) was expected to put that right in yesterday’s opener at the Curragh before missing the race owing to the rain-softened ground.

There was no hesitation on the part of Aidan O’Brien, though, in the following fillies’ Group 2 over six furlongs. Here, Statuette, a daughter of US Triple Crown winner Justify, a Coolmore America stallion, out of Immortal Verse, was “expected” and duly delivered.

The word beforehand was that she was superior to Royal Ascot winner Meditate, so impressive when making all in the Albany Stakes. Maybe she is, maybe she isn’t, but it’s a nice talking point as the season progresses.

Even more interesting was Ryan Moore’s observation after the runaway victory of 20-1 shot Aikhal in the ten-furlong Group 3 on Saturday. Aikhal, rated 109, was previously seen when last of 11 in the St James’s Palace Stakes, but the son of Galileo had placed juvenile form behind such as Angel Bleu and Coroebus.

“I think we ran the wrong one in the Derby,” was Ryan’s alleged whispered aside. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that this Galileo colt might be another dramatic improver to bolster the stable’s big-race armoury in the coming months.

- TS

Racing Systems: Flat Trainers, Part 3

/in /by

In the past couple of articles - here and here - I have been researching and sharing some trainer-based systems for flat racing (turf and all weather combined), writes Dave Renham. And in this piece, I have one more group of flat trainer systems to share. Once again, the focus will be on UK racing from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021 with all profits quoted to Betfair Starting Price (less 5% commission).

As a researcher and writer I feel my job is to share facts and figures and, from there, the reader can make an informed choice. Systems do not have to be rigid: we can use them that way of course, but we have options that allow the selection process to be more flexible. With that said, here are the final four of twelve trainer angles for the flat.

 

Ralph Beckett – The 3yo system

Ralph Beckett was discussed in an earlier article when the focus was solely all weather racing. Here is a different system which could be employed on both the turf and the sand. It has very few rules:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Ralph Beckett
  3. 3yo runners

I have discussed before that in general the simpler the system the better – this is a case in point. Here are the overall stats for the last 13 seasons:

 

 

These are sound figures overall, especially across nearly 3000 qualifiers, and the system has produced returns in excess of 8%. Here are the stats broken down by year. The graph below shows the yearly Return on Investment % to BSP. I am using ROI% as I tend to do with bigger sample sizes:

 

 

There have been nine winning years and four losing ones, with three of the losing years back in 2012 or before. The last five years have all returned a profit so there's some good overall consistency, which is backed up when we look at the yearly win strike rates of these 3yos:

 

 

In twelve of the 13 years, Beckett has returned a strike rate of 15% and above, and only in 2009 did he not exceed this figure (SR was 14.1% in that year). This gives greater confidence in the base line figures.

Digging a little deeper we can see there is further consistency when we split the results by distance. Dividing into three we get the following:

 

 

All distance ranges have made a profit and the returns have been similar at that.

This angle in its raw form will give us a decent number of qualifiers each year. For me it is a case of looking at each qualifier on an individual basis and examining the races they are contesting in more detail. From there I will decide if the horse looks a value bet or not.

Andrew Balding – The 2yo non-handicap system

Andrew Balding has successfully followed in the footsteps of his father Ian starting back in 2003. His strike rate in all races is solid, averaging around the 15% mark, and he is at or near this figure year in, year out. The system I want to share with you relates to his juvenile runners. The rules are:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Andrew Balding
  3. 2yos in non-handicaps

 

This system has produced the following results:

 

 

That is an absolutely huge profit over the past 13 years. There have been a good number of bets again and here is the annual breakdown data, via Return on Investment (ROI%):

 

 

As can be seen from the upward spikes, there have been several extremely profitable seasons, with ten in the black and just three losing years. However, as you might suspect, this system has been blessed by several big-priced winners: in fact, ten winners have returned at a BSP of over 50.0! Clearly, then, a good proportion of the overall profits are down to these runners. The results are definitely a touch skewed.

However, before thinking this may not be the system for you, it should be noted that horses whose industry SP has been 10/1 or shorter have made a profit as well. OK, we are only talking about 9%, but if your shorter priced runners are making a profit, then I think this type of approach has ‘legs’. To reproduce the amazing profits of the past 13 years it will need the odd big-priced winner, but even if these are less frequent, there is a good chance this system will still make a long-term profit.

Finally I want to share the Balding stats in terms of ground conditions (going). He has been profitable on all types of turf going as well as making a profit on the sand:

 

 

Clive Cox – The 3yos in 3yo+ races system

Clive Cox has saddled over 850 winners and, last year, saw his highest tally of winners, 79. Indeed, since 2009, if you had backed ALL of his runners in every single race you would have made a profit of 8p in the £. Not bad considering the sample size is in excess of 5,200 runners. Also, six of the last seven years would have produced a blind profit which is impressive.

Clive Cox has done especially well with his three-year-old (3yo) runners since 2009, especially when they are racing in 3yo+ races. The system reads:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Clive Cox
  3. 3yos in 3yo+ races

Again, there are very few rules which, as I have stated before, is important for the logic to stand up. The overall results show good profits:

 

 

Looking at the annual breakdown, the below figures using BSP profit to £1 level stakes:

 

 

2009, 2010, 2017 and 2018 were all very profitable and these years are why the system has an overall profit. What is interesting, though, is that Cox has not really had any bad seasons. Even in 2019 and 2020 the losses were very modest considering the raw nature of this system. So, despite four seasons contributing to virtually all the profit margin, this system shouldn’t in my opinion be written off due to inconsistency. Whether it is the type of system for you, only you will know. Again my personal approach would be to highlight qualifiers using the rules and then take a more pragmatic approach by doing further research into the horses in question and their rivals in the highlighted race.

A couple of extra pointers: firstly Cox has done better at shorter distances (less than 1m 1f). Secondly, horses that finished in the first five last time have produced 126 winners from 609 runners (SR 20.7%) showing a profit of £299.44 (ROI +49.2%). Breaking the annual results down for this second subset of runners sees an impressive twelve winning years out of 13. Of course we need to ask, is using a last time out finish in the first five back-fitting? Possibly, but even with extra stipulation this angle still has very few rules. Also, if you had restricted to a finish in the first three last time out, the results would have been similar.

There is no easy answer sometimes to whether an extra rule or two is a good idea to a very simple system. If the additional rule(s) has logic then you could argue it either way; if it is not logical then there is no argument – it is definitely back-fitting!

Mick Appleby – The 3yo handicap system

Mick Appleby started training in the summer of 2010. He had just three winners that year followed by 15 in 2011. From 2012 his stable increased in size and, over the next two seasons (2013 & 2014), he saddled 101 winners. In the last five years, Appleby has saddled at least 90 winners each time.

The system is thus:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Mick Appleby
  3. 3yos in handicaps

 

Again a system with very few rules. They have produced some decent returns as we can see in the table below:

 

 

This time we have a slightly lower strike rate than the other angles I have shared, but in handicap races this is generally likely to be the case. Here is the annual breakdown.

 

 

It's a bit of a roller-coaster, truth be told. 2016 and 2021 were huge years but both had one very big-priced winner which helped the bottom line considerably. In 2016, Mick had a winner that effectively paid 253/1, while in 2021 he had one that paid around 194/1 (prices adjusted to account for commission). This takes the overall profit figure down to £246 which still equates to a tidy profit of 18p in the £.

Regarding outliers, Appleby had only one other winner that paid over 50/1 (it paid 70/1 after commission). Restricting the Oakham trainer's runners to an industry SP price of 14/1 or less, his figures remain good: 156 winners from 919 runners for a profit of £154.52 (ROI +16.8%).

Another point worth sharing is that his record is considerably better in 3yo only handicaps. In such contests, the strike rate increases to 14.2% and profits stand at £655.45 (ROI +94.7%). Overall it would have given a much smoother ride from a yearly perspective.

Most systems that solely use handicap races are likely to fluctuate somewhat and hence come with risk. Thereafter, it is the old risk / reward conundrum. For me, once again this system is a case where I would be noting the qualifiers and undertaking further research to determine whether a horse is a betting opportunity or not.

*

So there you have it, the last four trainer systems from a group of 12. It will be interesting to see how they fare over the next two or three seasons. Time will tell.

- DR

Racing Systems: All Weather Angles

/in /by

In my previous article I explored the idea of using trainer systems in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. This time I have turned my attention to the all-weather with a view to finding some more profitable trainer patterns.

As with the last piece I am going to look over the long term, studying UK racing trainer data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021. If trainers have proved profitable over such a long timeframe then we should have more confidence that this will continue to happen. As ever, though, racing systems are only dealing with past results: those of us not blessed with clairvoyance cannot be sure of what will happen in the future!

OK, let's get to it.

Ralph Beckett – the ‘Blind’ system

Ralph Beckett is a trainer that I think punters in general underrate. Year in, year out he seems to produce the goods. He has good figures for turf racing, but on the all-weather they are even better. Indeed, let's start with possibly the simplest system one could create:

  1. Trainer Ralph Beckett
  2. All races on the all-weather

That’s it – bet every single Beckett runner on the sand. The graph below shows the yearly breakdown of Beckett's Return on Investment to Betfair SP.

 

 

The Kimpton, Hampshire-based trainer has enjoyed 11 winning years out of 13, with the losses in 2018 very small in reality. His strike rate has fluctuated a little as one might expect, ranging from a low of 10.4% in 2019 to as high as 23.7% in 2020. However, 2019 was the only year it dipped below 14.5% and in eight years the strike rate has exceeded 20%. The overall bottom line reads as follows:

 

 

That's extremely impressive at first glance. Things do need clarifying a touch, however, in that his profits have been helped by some big priced winners; but these winners actually occurred on a regular basis. Indeed, Beckett has had 45 winners priced at a BSP of 12.0 or bigger since 2009, with at least two such scorers annually, and the graph below shows how these have been spread out over the years:

 

 

Whenever we look at system results we need to ensure that random big-priced winners do not skew the overall results. This is a case where I believe random big-priced winners are not skewing the results but, instead, are a feature of the result set.

Another positive in terms of consistency is when we examine the individual course data. The table below gives us the Beckett breakdown for the six UK all-weather courses:

 

 

Strike rates are consistent across the piece, and all courses show a profit at Betfair SP. This reliability can also been seen when we break down results by month. Ten of the 12 calendar months have shown a profit as we can see:

 

 

December and January, peak all-weather season in fairness, are the only two negative months. Maybe it is a time of year that Beckett targets a little less. It is interesting that ‘returns’ wise Beckett has done particularly well in the spring and summer months, definitely something worth noting when most people's focus is on flat turf racing.

Some readers may not be comfortable betting all Beckett runners ‘blind’ so are there any additional rules we can add that do not smell of the dreaded back-fitting? Well, some kind of betting market rule may help, especially if you are concerned that the results are slightly skewed due to big-priced winners. If we add the following rule:

- stick to horses from the top five in the betting

This would cut the number of selections by around 350, increase the strike rate to 22.8% and keep profits relatively high – a profit to £1 level stakes of £291.23 (ROI +21.2%). The year by year returns retain their consistency, in fact 12 of the 13 years now show a profit using this market restriction.

All in all, if there is one all-weather trainer to keep on your side it is Ralph Beckett.

Let’s check out some other trainers now.

 

Hugo Palmer – the Market system

Hugo Palmer has a decent record on the sand since he started in 2011. If we use a market restriction we create a potential system to follow. The rules are:

  1. Trainer Hugo Palmer
  2. All races on the all-weather
  3. Top five in the betting.

 

Using the same market restriction I used with Beckett, Palmer’s overall figures look solid:

 

 

Using this top five in the betting rule once again means the figures are less skewed by big-priced winners, which as previously mentioned is important, but it also means we often cannot know the market rank of a runner unless it is near the very top of the betting or an outsider.

Breaking the figures down by year shows a fair amount of consistency. I have used profit figures to £1 level stakes to illustrate this:

 

 

Palmer incurred small losses in his first two seasons, but given he was still cutting his teeth in the game these can be forgiven. Since then there have been eight winning years out of nine. 2019 was a poor year but he did actually the post with several seconds that year and I think we can reasonably overlook that.

Looking at his course by course  data with runners in the top five of the betting, he has made profits at Kempton, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton; broke even at Chelmsford, and made a loss at Lingfield. Again, that's fair enough consistency.

There are other options in terms of adding system rules, but this Hugo Palmer system definitely has a decent chance to remain profitable for the near future at least. Hence no need for me to change to it. You may like to research further, however!

 

Mark Johnston – Older horses, lower class system

Mark Johnston has averaged about 400 runners per year on the all-weather in recent years and hence it gives us a huge sample size to break down. His annual strike rate has been super consistent in recent times hitting around the 15% mark every year:

 

 

Now, most top trainers in the country, like Johnston, tend to focus more on their younger horses as they are going to be the ones that are likely to have a chance at stud (and are not exposed as moderate or in the grip of the handicapper). It is noticeable that the runners Mark Johnston (and joint-licence holder son, Charlie) keeps in training past three years old perform well as a whole on the all-weather. They make up only 23% of his runners on the sand, but if backing all such runners (4yo and up) ‘blind’ they would have broken even over the past 13 years. The route to profit seems to be in lower class races, Class 5 or below. Hence the system reads:

  1. Trainer Mark (and Charlie) Johnston
  2. 4yo+ running on the all-weather
  3. Class 5, 6 or 7

Running older horses in lower class races is relatively rare for trainers like Johnston but the overall stats still look promising:

 

 

A good strike rate edging towards one win in four, and returns of 32p in the £ are appealing. Let's break the data down by year and, as always, we are looking for consistency. The graph uses profit figures to £1 level stakes:

 

 

Overall there have been decent results across the piece, with just three losing years. 2020 could have been impacted by COVID so that is something that potentially we might take into account. Another positive is that in the same time frame this ‘system’ would have made a profit for Johnston in turf flat racing too; not as big a profit, but a positive return nonetheless. Hence I am hopeful that this angle should offer a good chance of making further profits in the future.

 

Charles Hills – Fancied Males system

It should be noted that male horses outperform female ones on the all-weather, with overall figures for all horses from all trainers seeing males win 11.8% of the time, females only 9.1%. There is a much bigger discrepancy though when you look at the runners of Charles Hills splitting them by gender. His male runners have won 19.3% of the time, whereas female runners have triumphed just 11.4% of the time. Hence the Hills gap looks extremely significant.

So here is another potential system in which we are using a limited number of rules. Again I want to implement the same market rule as I have used previously to avoid the bigger-priced winners skew dilemma. Hence our system reads:

  1. Trainer Charles Hills
  2. All races on the all-weather
  3. Top five in the betting
  4. Male horses only

His results, like Hugo Palmer’s, only go back to 2011 but the basic figures look strong:

 

 

He has seen a good strike rate as you would expect with a system that uses market factors as one of its rules. Decent returns, too, of around 26p in the £.

Once again though we need to look at the yearly data in a bid to establish consistency. Broken down this time by BSP ROI%:

 

 

2011 looks bad but he had only six runners in that first season with a licence, and all lost, hence the -100% ROI. We can see a subsequent steady improvement over time with 2012 to 2014 essentially breaking even, while every year from 2015 to 2021 has ended up with positive returns.

I had a sneaky look at his results so far in 2022, and at the time of writing (7th March), the system has generated 20 qualifiers, 10 of which have won (SR 50%) showing a BSP profit of £15.31 (ROI +76.55%). The signs remain very promising.

The beauty of all-weather racing is that it happens all year round and hence these four systems can potentially be exploited regardless of whether the main focus is on National Hunt or flat turf racing: we can just carry on finding nice winners on the sand!

*

That's all for this article. If you have any system ideas you’d like me to investigate, please leave a comment below.

- DR