Haiti Couleurs put up a tremendous performance to win the Boylesports Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse for Rebecca Curtis and Sean Bowen.
A winner at the Cheltenham Festival last month when his regular rider Bowen missed out, the champion jockey-elect in the UK was back in the saddle and gave his mount the perfect ride up front.
Sent off at 13-2, Haiti Couleurs was in the front pair throughout along with Bushmans Pass and when that one dropped away it became a case of could he hold on.
🇬🇧 The Brits strike in the €500,000 @BoyleSports Irish Grand National
The Ted Walsh-trained veteran Any Second Now emerged as a big threat, as did the favourite Quai De Bourbon, while Dunboyne had also travelled well into contention.
But Bowen had saved plenty and he went away to win by three and a quarter lengths from the gallant Any Second Now – was was finishing in the runner-up spot for the second year running – with Quai De Bourbon third and Dunboyne fourth.
Bowen told RTE: “I honestly can’t believe it. He was doing a half-speed the whole way round, he was hacking and at the same time I was frightened as he got fairly revved up beforehand.
Haiti Couleurs on his way to victory (Damien Eagers/PA)
“I actually thought I’m a bit too keen, as he was doing everything in second gear. I’m so grateful to everyone, obviously I couldn’t ride him at Cheltenham and I’m so grateful to Becky for letting me back on him.
“He just stays very well and jumps very, very well. No words, no words.”
Bowen – who was having just his second ride at Fairyhouse, his first being earlier in the day – added: “To be champion jockey is all I’ve ever wanted and I supposed when you get it then you want to do more. I need the big winners as well and it’s great that this lad has done it for me.”
Jubilant scenes for winning connections (Damien Eagers/PA)
Pembrokeshire-based Curtis said: “Sean just said to me there ‘I thought we had another circuit to go, I was in second gear the whole way’.
“He is so tough to do it like he has done it, on that ground as well as it was a bit of a worry – but it wasn’t a bother to him.
“He does (travel through his races). Although he stays well, he is not what I call a slow horse at all. He has got a high cruising speed.
“I think this feels like one of our best wins, just the atmosphere and everything.
“I did feel the pressure, I haven’t slept for about two weeks. I was calm until the last two fences.
A kiss for winning jockey Sean Bowen from trainer Rebecca Curtis (Damien Eagers/PA)
“To me, it is a bigger win than Cheltenham because it is hard to come here and win an Irish handicap, I know that.”
When asked if he could be a Gold Cup horse next year, she replied: “If he keeps improving, yes.”
Following the race, Walsh announced the JP McManus-owned Any Second Now – who has also finished runner-up and third in the Grand National at Aintree – had run his last race and would be retired.
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Former Stayers’ Hurdle hero Lisnagar Oscar retains ability and character in abundance as he is cherished in his post-racing home.
The bay’s finest moment on a racecourse was a career-defining triumph in the three-mile Grade One at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, a win that came at odds of 50-1 and would prove to be his last despite two more seasons in training with Rebecca Curtis.
His path to his new owner was first trodden by his former stablemate Clancy’s Cross, another son of Oscar who had been trained by Curtis before a second career in Staffordshire with Jenny Bennett.
Bennett followed Oscar’s offspring after her success with Clancy’s Cross, and was particularly fond of Lisnagar Oscar having watched his exploits on the track before he became hers as the Christmas present of dreams in 2022.
“I knew Rebecca had a few in training by Oscar and he was one of my favourite horses, him and Paisley Park, I’d followed them both throughout their careers and loved them,” said Bennett.
Lisnagar Oscar picking up a red rosette in the show ring (Jenny Bennett)
“I went off down to Pembrokeshire and as soon as I saw Oscar I knew he was the one, I tried him and said I’d have him.”
Lisnagar Oscar took to retraining and his new life out of racing immediately, and was an instant success in showjumping and Retraining of Racehorses classes before a serious tendon injury threatened to end his new career and perhaps even his life.
The prognosis was not encouraging and the possibility of him being euthanised was even raised, but as the Bennett family live on a farm and have ample room for Lisnagar Oscar to convalesce, he was put out to pasture in the hope that time would heal him.
“In January and February we just lightly hacked to give him down time, then in March we started to do little bits with him and in April he went to his first competition,” Bennett said.
“He won British Showjumping classes, he won RoR classes, he qualified for the London International Horse show as a working show horse but then he did his tendon, that was a crash down.
Lisnagar Oscar and Jenny Bennett (Jenny Bennett)
“The vet said he was unlikely to return to work and in most cases he would have been put to sleep, but because we’re on a farm at home they suggested we chuck him out in the field for however long it takes until he’s sound again.
“We wanted to give him a chance so that’s what we did, and in June 2023 I started hacking him again because he was sound and he’d got to the point where he was unbearable!
“If you went to fetch one of the others he’d try and sneak in with them, we knew he needed to do something.
“He was turned out with the cows and he would just annoy my dad, following him up and down all day and he couldn’t even shoo him off.
“He’ll walk in anywhere you leave the door open, he was in the parlour once because someone had left the gate open and he’d just followed them through. He doesn’t care, so unflappable and he’s got so much personality.”
Fully recovered and now in his 12th year, Lisnagar Oscar has a hit the ground running with plenty of showjumping success already this year and some exciting plans on the horizon.
Lisnagar Oscar with connections at Cheltenham (Tim Goode/PA)
“He takes everything in his stride, he’s already got five British Showjumping wins under his belt this year and he’ll be aimed at the Bronze League Final that is at Horse of the Year Show, he’ll also do the RoR league this year,” said Bennett.
“Our family friend’s daughter, who is 15 and a total novice having come through a riding school, she’s going to ride him at our local county show at the end of May – he’ll do all that for me and then he’s as quiet as anything for her.”
Lisnagar Oscar clearly has the heart to go with his ability and is no less treasured by his new owner and his former trainer than he was in his glory days spent striding up the hill at Cheltenham.
“I don’t know how he was a successful racehorse, he’s so laid back! The bigger the show, the more chilled he is,” Bennett said.
“He’s an absolute angel, he’s so easy to do. My mum always gives him carrots and if he sees her, he’ll coming trotting over and whinnying.
“He’s very friendly and there’s not a single thing bad about him. He’s a little horse with a big heart, that’s the best way to describe him.
“Rebecca still messages me now to see that he’s doing well, she really does care what happens to them after racing.”
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Cheltenham Festival hero Haiti Couleurs goes in search of another big-race victory in the BoyleSports Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday.
The eight-year-old was an emphatic winner of the National Hunt Chase at Prestbury Park last month, providing his trainer Rebecca Curtis with a fifth Festival success.
The Welsh handler has sent a team of six horses across the Irish Sea to run across the three days of Fairyhouse’s Easter Festival and is hopeful her stable star can become the first British-trained winner of the €500,000 since Jonjo O’Neill’s Shutthefrontdoor struck gold 11 years ago.
“He seems in really good form, healthy and well,” said Curtis.
“We’re very excited to be bringing him over to Ireland. I couldn’t be happier with the horse. It was great to win at Cheltenham and he came out of that really well.
“He had a nice easy couple of weeks after and he’s been back in full swing for the last month. So, it’s all systems go.”
Jonjo O’Neill has two Irish Grand National wins on his training CV, having also claimed top honours with Butler’s Cabin in 2007. Now in partnership with his son AJ, the trainer goes in search of the hat-trick with Johnnywho, was was narrowly denied a Cheltenham Festival win in the Kim Muir.
AJ O’Neill has high hopes for Johnnywho (Joe Giddens/PA)
AJ O’Neill said: “He ran a lovely race at Cheltenham really and I suppose it seems the natural progression to go to Fairyhouse. He’s in good form, we’re looking forward to seeing him back on track and hopefully he can go one better.
“It’s very competitive, but hopefully we’re good enough on the day. It’s a great race and it’s great to have a runner who has shown good form on the way up.”
The home challenge features many of the usual suspects in terms of trainers, with Willie Mullins, Gavin Cromwell and Gordon Elliott all saddling multiple runners, while Paul Nolan fields the horse who beat Johnnywho by a neck in the Kim Muir, Daily Present.
He said: “He’s in very good form, everything has has gone well with him and we’re hoping he’ll run a respectable race.
“He really stayed at Cheltenham, he’s definitely a stayer and he got a very good ride.
“We’re just hoping he can operate again, he’s gone up a good chunk in the weights but it’d be great if he could still be competitive.”
Willie Mullins has saddled two previous Irish Grand National winners in Burrows Saint (2019) and I Am Maximus and is this year represented by two novices in Quai De Bourbon and Sa Majeste.
Quai De Bourbon (white cap) in action at Gowran Park (Brian Lawless/PA)
Patrick Mullins, assistant to his father, said: “Quai De Bourbon has been unlucky in Cheltenham (unseated) and Aintree (brought down), but perhaps that will be the silver lining on two clouds as he comes into Fairyhouse without having had hard races.
“Obviously, his jumping will have to stand up, but I thought he jumped well in Aintree in the main.
“Sa Majeste gets in with a nice racing weight (10st 12lb). He ran very well in Cheltenham (third in Kim Muir) and nicer ground might bring more improvement in him.”
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Rebecca Curtis’ Cheltenham Festival winner Haiti Couleurs is clear favourite with the sponsors after a maximum field of 30 were declared for Monday’s Boylesports Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.
The eight-year-old has won three of his four outings over fences, with the novice firing Curtis back into the big time in the National Hunt Chase.
With his stamina assured and a win on heavy ground on his record, there are a lot of positives as he tries to take the prize back to Wales and he has been installed as the 5-1 market leader.
He is one of only three runners from the UK, with Jonjo and A J O’Neill providing the other two.
Johnnywho looked sure to justify favouritism in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham before a mistake at the last and Hasthing, who would have been placed behind Haiti Couleurs at the Festival but for falling at the final fence, was brought down early on in the Scottish National last week.
Heading the weights is Gordon Elliott’s Better Days Ahead, who has been largely campaigning in Grade One company this season.
Elliott also runs Duffle Coat, Favori De Champdou, Search For Glory, Shecouldbeanything, Stuzzikini and Tullybeg.
Gavin Cromwell is also set to be represented by seven hopefuls. Bioluminescence, Malina Girl, Yeah Man, Now Is The Hour, Mint Boy, Final Orders and last-in Noble Birth will bid to give him a first win in the race.
Willie Mullins runs just Quai De Bourbon and Sa Majeste.
Ted Walsh’s veteran Any Second Now runs and the trainer told Boylesports: “He’s in great nick and I think he’ll run a big race. He’s as good as he was this time last year, he doesn’t know he’s 13.
“He’s been trained with the race in mind and he had nice runs at Fairyhouse and Naas the last time. Mark Walsh has looked after him well and he’s going to ride him again. He could have ridden a couple of others, so he must think he has a squeak.
“If he runs well, I’d be delighted, if he wins, I’ll be over the moon. It’s a great race and it would be lovely to have another winner at this stage.”
Brian O’Keeffe, spokesperson for the sponsors, added: “The betting for the Boylesports Irish Grand National is as temperamental as the weather at the moment and while Haiti Couleurs looks set to head to post as favourite, plenty of mudlarks are seeing strong support.
“The McManus owned-duo Bioluminescence and Any Second Now are chief among them and what a fairytale it would be if the latter got his head in front at the age of 13!”
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Haiti Couleurs has the BoyleSports Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on April 21 as an end-of-season target.
Trained by Rebecca Curtis, the eight-year-old was a comfortable winner of the new version of the National Hunt Chase, which is now run as a novices’ handicap with professionals permitted to ride.
Sent off the 7-2 joint-favourite and partnered by Ben Jones, Haiti Couleurs never looked in danger all the way round, jumping with aplomb and powering up the hill to win by four and a half lengths.
“He’s come out of the race really well, probably the best he ever has to be fair,” said Curtis, who was back on the Festival scoresheet for the first time since Lisnagar Oscar’s Stayers’ Hurdle win in 2020.
Ben Jones soaks up the applause as Rebecca Curtis (left) follows him in (Mike Egerton/PA)
“We’re having a really good think about running him in the Irish National now, I think it will really suit him. He goes on good ground, he stays well and it is a race novices have a good record in – it also suits timing-wise after Cheltenham. I also think it will be a bit of fun for the owners as well!
“I said after the race it was almost like watching him in slow motion, he always looked comfortable, so I was delighted.
“It is not often you have a plan in this game and everything works out perfectly, but his season has.
“It was tempting at Christmas time to see if we went to the next level with him and find out if he’s a graded horse, but I’m glad we stuck to our guns and went the route we did because obviously it paid off in the end.”
Aintree could be on the agenda next season although given the standard needed there in recent years Curtis is in no rush to commit just yet.
She added: “He’s likely to be mid 140s now. I don’t know about next year yet, even if we try him in a graded race, the way the National is going, you need to be a graded horse to stand a chance anyway, so I don’t think it’s a case of either or. We’ll see how his next race goes and take it from there, I guess.
“The Gold Cup winner is this year’s favourite and I think the first four last year were all graded horses, so it’s not easy.”
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Rebecca Curtis reports National Hunt Chase hope Haiti Couleurs to be in top form, as the Welsh handler eyes a return to the Cheltenham Festival winner’s enclosure.
Curtis has registered five winners at National Hunt racing’s showpiece event and it was in the National Hunt Chase back in 2012 where she first got off the mark at the meeting when Teaforthree obliged.
Formally a Grade Two, the marathon contest for novices has reverted to a handicap for this year, with professional jockeys also permitted, and Curtis has been minded to campaign her exciting eight-year-old carefully with that in mind.
Trainer Rebecca Curtis has won five times at the Cheltenham Festival (David Davies/PA)
Having recorded two wins from three chasing starts before Christmas – including one at Prestbury Park in December – Haiti Couleurs switched to hurdles to continue ticking over at Newbury earlier this month, finishing a respectable third behind Dan Skelton’s Santos Blue.
He is said to have bounced out of that assignment in rude health and confidence is high as Haiti Couleurs – who is as short as 7-2 with Paddy Power and Betfair – now bids to give the Pembrokeshire trainer her first Festival success since Lisnagar Oscar won the 2020 Stayers’ Hurdle.
“He’s really good and has come out of the race at Newbury really well,” said Curtis.
“I was really pleased with his run, I couldn’t have asked for more really and it was just perfect as a stepping stone, so now we look forward to Cheltenham as he seems in great form.
“I didn’t want to leave him from December until March without a run but with the form he was in, if he went and won another over fences I didn’t want him going up another 7/8lb and being nearly top-weight in the National Hunt Chase – hopefully it works out perfect.
“He should fit the race well and I think he stays well, hopefully it will be the further the better with him. For a novice he jumps very well as well.
“It’s nice to go to Cheltenham with one that we think has a live chance.”
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Rebecca Curtis is pondering her next move with Haiti Couleurs as she bids to navigate a route to the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
A dual winner over hurdles last spring, the eight-year-old has made a fine start to his career over fences this season, with a runner-up finish on his debut at Chepstow followed by a couple of bold-jumping victories at Aintree and Cheltenham.
With the National Hunt Chase being run as a 0-145 handicap for the first time this year following a change to the race conditions, Haiti Couleurs appears a major candidate off his current mark of 135 and Curtis does not want to overdo it in the meantime.
Haiti Couleurs in full flight (David Davies/PA)
“He’s really good, but to be honest we’ve put nothing in concrete with him,” said the Welsh trainer.
“He’s gone up to 135, which puts him on quite a nice mark for the National Hunt Chase now that it’s a handicap and I think we’ve just got to be careful between now and then.
“There’s a novice handicap chase at Doncaster at the end of the month which I’ve looked at, but I’m not sure. I feel he is a horse that’s improving and may end up slightly better than a handicapper, so it’s all a bit up in the air at the moment.”
Haiti Couleurs is the 8-1 favourite for the National Hunt Chase with bet365 and a best-priced 10-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair.
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Rebecca Curtis looks to have unearthed a horse who could send her back to the big time after Haiti Couleurs put up a fine display at Cheltenham on Saturday.
The Welsh trainer is no stranger to success in the Cotswolds, having enjoyed Festival glory with the likes of Teaforthree, At Fishers Cross and Stayers’ Hurdle hero Lisnagar Oscar.
However, it has been a while between drinks for Curtis, with the latter’s shock win four and a half years ago her most recent at graded level.
A dual winner over hurdles at the end of last season, Haiti Couleurs finished second on his chasing debut at Chepstow in October before going one better in some style at Aintree last month.
He was a 4-1 shot to follow up in the Josh Wyke Birthday Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase and jumped accurately throughout under title-chasing Sean Bowen before digging deep in the home straight to prevail by two and three-quarter lengths.
The staying-on Transmission pipped the 11-8 favourite Peaky Boy to second.
Haiti Couleurs in full flight (David Davies/PA)
“He just keeps improving this horse. He obviously had a nice novice season (over hurdles) last season, but he struck into himself quite badly the year before and he actually he missed a full year, so he’s still slightly backward for his age,” said Curtis.
“With racing he keeps improving and I don’t know where he’ll end up really. I really fancied him for the National Hunt Chase because he stays all day, but Sean said he’s improved that much since his Aintree win you wouldn’t know if he’ll end up in the Brown Advisory.
“It’s nice to be back here. We’re getting those types of horses again which will hopefully keep us on the map anyway.”
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When Matt sent a survey out to Geegeez members in January he got some interesting and refreshing responses, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will combine trainer angles with system research, two areas that surveyed members wanted to see more of.
A system based approach using trainer data / patterns is a tried and tested formula which has long been very popular with many punters. Indeed, in the first article of this series I shared a John Gosden system that had been successful on the flat in recent years. In this article my focus is going to be on National Hunt racing where I'll be looking for profitable trainer systems within this sphere.
I am going to look over the long term studying UK racing trainer data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021. If trainers have proved profitable over such a long time frame then we have a potential system to use. From there, though, we may need to drill down further to try and determine the likelihood of an angle continuing to perform well. Of course we cannot know what the future will bring results wise and, as all of us are aware, past results may not be replicated in the future. So, with those messages in place, let’s start:
Rebecca Curtis – ‘Close’ season system
Rebecca Curtis started training in 2008 and quickly established herself as a trainer to keep a close eye on. In 2012 she had 47 winners from 189 runners which equates to a strike rate of 24.9%. Also in 2012 she had the first of her five Cheltenham Festival winners when Teaforthree won the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase. Everything continued smoothly until 2017 when she split from her bloodstock agent, Gearoid Costelloe. That year she struggled, mainly due to losing roughly 50% of her horses. By 2019 she was back on track hitting a yearly win strike rate of 26.4%, but since Covid in March 2020 the performances from the stable have dipped again.
However, despite the more recent ups and downs, Curtis has continued to produce the goods in the warmer months. Focusing on May to August, the Pembroke-based handler has been consistently impressive all the way back to 2009. So our first trainer system to look at reads:
Trainer Rebecca Curtis
National Hunt UK racing – May 1st to August 31st
These are the annual strike rates for this micro angle:
At first glance the chart line may look a little volatile but the strike rate has exceeded 20% in all bar two years (2009 and 2016). It should also be noted that she had no runners in 2020 (due to the pandemic). Even last year, when she had a very modest overall 12 months, she still managed a strike rate of 29.4% making profits to BSP of £23.05 to £1 level stakes (ROI +135.6%).
From 2009 to 2021 the overall system results were:
A highly impressive bottom line and we know the strike rates have been decent year in, year out – so let’s look at the annual BSP profit figures:
Overall, then, it's nine winning years and only three losing ones, which is pleasing to see – consistency is something that we should all look for in systems.
Breaking the data down like this does highlight that 2016 must have had a huge priced winner or two. In fact it was a just one winner that after Betfair commission would have paid a remarkable 155/1. Thus, the original bottom line of +£220 to £1 level stakes does not look quite as impressive now. It is important to realise that big priced winners can skew results markedly and potentially turn a system on its head. Using Query Tool, the A/E metric will help here, and this - along with other metrics used extensively on geegeez.co.uk - is explained in more detail in this post.
All things being out in the open now, I would still hope this system has potential for the future. Even without that huge priced winner the figures remain solid. My biggest concern in reality is whether Rebecca Curtis will have the ammunition to produce such positive results in the future, but of course nobody can answer this.
That said, if you had focused only on Curtis runners that started clear favourite you would have witnessed 47 winners from 78 runners giving an exceptional strike rate of 60.3%. They have naturally proved extremely profitable securing profits of £35.33 at BSP to £1 level stakes (ROI +45.3%). These market leaders also produced profits in all but one year. Adapting the system to focus just on favourites may be a way to go for some of you. (For the record, Ms Curtis has also saddled six qualifying joint-favourites, two of which won, giving a small profit also).
Before moving on, it is interesting to note that Peter Bowen, a trainer Curtis worked for prior to securing her own license, also has a good long-term record with his runners in the ‘close’ season. His overall performance from 2009 in the months of May to August reads:
Like Curtis, one big-priced winner in 2018 (220/1 after commission) has clearly helped. However, even removing that winner from Bowen's figures, the overall bottom line still looks rosy. I am more circumspect about Bowen, though, because if you take out that big priced winner and look at the more recent years 2014 to 2021, he has only made a small profit. Further, in 2020, he had just one winner from 63 starters! Now, of course, Covid really impacted the 2020 season for many, so that may just be a blip, but it is/was a big blip.
Paul Nicholls – Claiming jockeys in hurdle races
Paul Nicholls has been one of the top National Hunt trainers since the turn of the century but making profits from his runners is easier said than done. Top trainers are by definition unable to fly under the radar and finding value can be tricky. However, one area where Nicholls has performed relatively well is with horses ridden by claiming jockeys. Since 2009, Nicholls has used claiming jockeys on 1513 horses, of which 308 have won (SR 20.4%). Backing all these runners would have shown a loss to BSP but only £15.98 which equates to just a penny in every pound wagered. Compare this to his runners ridden by professional jockeys which would have lost £243.95, equivalent to losing 4p in the £.
Thus, claiming jockeys look a potential route to profits. Here is the system I have come up with:
Trainer Paul Nicholls
Hurdle races
Horse ridden by claiming jockey
Jockey has ridden the horse before
I chose hurdle races simply because there ought to be less chance of an inexperienced jockey falling. In addition I felt that if the jockey had ridden the horse before it would probably be a plus given these riders' general greenness. Again, I have very few rules in the system which hopefully avoids the dreaded back-fitting issue. The overall results from ’09 - ‘21 are in the positive range:
A strike rate of just over one in four and returns of 27p in the £ is a really good outcome. Let’s see how consistent the system would have been by looking at the annual strike rates first:
For this type of system we are more likely to see a volatile strike rate year to year but, as can also be seen, the figures have been stronger in recent years. Six of the past eight seasons have seen a strike rate in excess of 29%.
All well and good, but what of the bottom line? Below, we are looking at BSP profit to £1 level stakes. Looking at ROI% would be far too volatile due to sample size.
There have been nine winning years and four losing ones; but, since 2013, that reads eight winning years and only one losing year. The overall placed percentages are slightly above what I would expect which offers a further layer of confidence.
Sticking my neck out here, I would expect this system to prove profitable over the next five years, assuming nothing changes drastically within the Nicholls set up. The system has been relatively consistent with a decent overall strike rate; the trainer is one of the best in the business and the system has not been skewed due to big priced winners.
Venetia Williams – Chasers coming off a break
Venetia Williams has consistently been more successful with her chasers compared to her hurdlers over the years. Her overall strike rate in chases going back to 2009 stands at just under 16%; in hurdle races this drops to around 12%. In addition to this, for years now I have noticed that Ms Williams' horses seem to be fit regardless of how long they have been off the track. Hence I have devised a system that can take advantage of this. The rules are:
Trainer Venetia Williams
Chases
Horse off track for five months (150 days) or more
I have chosen five months or more because that is roughly the break between the official end of the NH season in late April/early May and when the next season starts to get into full swing around late September/early October. [For the record, if I had chosen six months instead the figures would be very similar]
In terms of days therefore the five months equates to a break of more than 150 days. The overall results from 2009 look strong:
The yearly results are consistent, too – nine winning years, three losing ones and one that broke even. Indeed, two of the three losing years occurred in 2009 and 2011 so, since 2012, there has been just one year producing negative returns.
More positives can be found when we examine the prices of the winners. The pie chart below breaks down the 87 winners into Betfair SP price brackets.
As is shown, the vast majority of winning prices were at the shorter end of the market. 23 winners were 4.00 (3/1) or lower, while 60 were 10.00 (9/1) or lower. Just five winners were bigger than 20.00 BSP (19/1), and the two biggest priced winners were both under 40/1 BSP. This again helps explain why results have been consistent over the years.
Runners off a long layoff is an underused pattern for some punters. However, there are some trainers, like Venetia Williams, who are able to make a break more of a positive than a negative. It is interesting to note that Ms Williams has made profits at all distance ranges as the table below shows:
Strike rates are similar across the board, but the biggest returns by far have been in the longest distance races (3 miles or more), returning nearly 88p profit for every £1 bet. Yes, the strike rate has been marginally higher in that group, but I think this is more an example of punter bias. I think many punters are put off backing horses that are running at long distances after a decent length break. Their thinking, (which is logical), is that they surely won’t be fit enough to be competitive in a really long contest. Hence the prices available become slightly higher than they should be due to that lack of betting interest. Venetia Williams is clearly adept at getting horses fit and that gives us betting opportunities that represent value.
Other potential system ideas to look into further
I have looked above in some detail at three potential systems that I think could and should continue to be profitable for the next few years. To finish, I want to share four more potential systems that you, the reader, might want to use, or indeed to dig around a little deeper:
Anthony Honeyball – Lower Class races
Anthony Honeyball, whose yard is sponsored by geegeez.co.uk, is a trainer that has performed extremely well in lower grade races in recent years. Focusing on class 5 or 6 races only, Honeyball has secured a strike rate of 23.5% (105 wins from 446 qualifiers) showing a profit to £1 level stakes of £148.14 which equates to returns of 33p in the £. There were eight winning years out of 13, while ten of the 13 seasons saw a strike rate of 20% or more.
Henderson has produced decent profits since 2009 with horses making their debut in a hurdle race: 78 winners from 201 runners (SR 38.8%) is remarkable. BSP profits stand at £94.49 to £1 level stakes (ROI +47.0%), and eight of the last ten years have shown a profit.
In particular, keep an eye on the shorter priced runners: horses which were sent off at 3.5 (5/2) or less on Betfair have produced 53 winners from 83 runners (SR 63.9%) for a profit of £30.71 (ROI +37.0%).
David Pipe – winners returning within 10 days
David’s father Martin was one of the first trainers to realise that National Hunt horses could return to the track after a very short break and perform well. David has continued to some extent in his father’s footsteps, certainly in terms of success, although not perhaps in volume of runners. When David Pipe winners return to the track within 10 days, their strike rate has been close to 40% with returns of around 31p in the £. There have been ten winning years from 13, but in recent years qualifiers per season have been in single figures. Hence this system will not make you fortunes, but when a runner crops up it commands close scrutiny.
If you want to increase the number of runners, Pipe’s record with winners returning to the track within 20 days is decent also.
Gordon Elliott – handicap hurdle races
Gordon Elliott is a trainer who has excelled in handicap hurdle races since 2009. He has saddled 93 winners from 459 runners (SR 20.3%) showing a BSP profit of £167.99 (ROI +36.6%). A couple of biggish priced winners have made up roughly half of these profits, but it is interesting to note his record if we ignore any horse priced greater than 20.0 (Betfair price).
Doing so means the figures are not hugely skewed in any way. Focusing on these runners (shorter than 20.0) sees Elliott's record read 89 wins from 374 (SR 23.8%) for a profit of £108.59 (ROI +29.4%). That is comprised of nine winning years out of 13 with three of the losing years producing extremely small losses.
It is worth noting that Elliott's record in Ireland in handicap hurdles is much poorer. As an aside, and maybe a point worth further research, the vast majority of his handicap hurdlers in the UK ran in Ireland last time.
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I hope you have enjoyed this article and fingers crossed the systems shared will continue in the same profitable way. Nothing is guaranteed but I remain hopeful!
With the evenings now sadly drawing in, many punters will soon begin to think about the upcoming National Hunt season, writes Dave Renham. So Matt and I felt it was the right time to revisit pace bias in National Hunt racing. In the past I have written several articles for Geegeez on the topic of pace and for this piece I am going to take an in depth look at non-handicap hurdle races.
I appreciate many of you reading this will have read some or all of my previous articles, but for new readers it is important to explain what pace in a race means and how we measure it. Pace in this context is connected with the running styles of the horses. When I look at pace bias my main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on.
geegeez.co.uk has an excellent pace analyser tool and the stats I am sharing with you in this article are based on that tool’s pace data. The data on Geegeez are split into four styles and accompanying points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The numbers in brackets are the pace scores assigned to each section.
For this article I have only looked at races with eight or more runners – this avoids falsely run races which often occur when there are small fields.
The first set of data contains the overall pace stats from all 8+ runner National Hunt non-handicaps in the UK from 1/1/09 to 31/7/21:
It is important to keep in mind that the number of runners in each pace group varies: there are far more runners in the prominent and hold up categories as you can see. 'Leaders' is the smallest group as usually you only get one early leader in this type of race, occasionally two when there is a contested early lead. Hence although raw strike rates have relevance, it is more important to look at Impact Values (IV) and the A/E index (Actual winners/Expected winners).
Leaders clearly have an edge as a whole, with prominent racers the next most successful. Therefore, as a general rule of thumb, in non-handicap hurdle races you want to be focusing on those horses that are the most likely to lead early (or at least race prominently and close to the front end).
When we have looked at draw biases on the flat we became aware that such biases can evolve and change over time. In terms of pace bias, though, I have always hoped (or assumed) that they are less likely to change much, if at all, over time. To check this theory out I decided to split the non-handicap data into two and compare 2009 – 2014 with 2015 onwards. The bar chart below compares the A/E values over these time frames:
Excellent correlation across all four pace categories so, because A/E is a measure of market performance, this gives increased confidence that the value in any pace biases is likely to replicated in the foreseeable future. Comparing the strike rates shows a similar level of consistency across the two time periods:
So we have a good starting point from which to start narrowing down the stats into different data sets to establish whether front running bias is stronger or weaker under more specific conditions. As the data seems consistent across the years I will analyse these areas over the whole time period (2009 to July 31st 2021).
Impact of Run Style by Race Distance, Non-Handicap Hurdles
I always feel distance is the best place to start when drilling down into pace data. A look first at the shorter distances.
2 miles 1 furlong or less
These figures are similar to the overall stats for all distances, so let us review by course. The chart below compares A/E values for all courses (min 50 races) – courses with A/E values of 1.00 or bigger are shown:
Bangor On Dee has the highest front-running A/E value at 1.48 and when we break the overall course stats down, we can see other metrics which point to that extremely strong front running bias:
Not only does the front running edge strengthen, it is clear that hold up horses struggle even more than the norm. For the record, if you had been able to predict the front runner(s) in each race at Bangor you would have made an SP profit to tune of 38 pence in the £. If only it was that easy!
The next chart shows the courses with the lowest A/E values for front runners over this trip:
Doncaster racecourse has the poorest figures for front runners and the overall stats for the course are as follows:
I think what this shows is that the course and distance stats are definitely worth drilling down on. The difference between Bangor and Doncaster at this distance range is very significant.
Before moving distances I would like to share some stats around performance of "the favourite" based on their running style:
Again, this shows clearly the importance of pace and running style. It still bemuses me how certain trainers continue to hold up their runners, when surely it is generally worth pushing them up with or close to the pace.
2 miles 2 furlongs to 2 miles 6 furlongs
It is always difficult to group National Hunt distances ‘perfectly’ when analysing large data sets, but for this article I wanted to split the full gamut of race distances into three parts and this seemed like a sensible middle distance grouping.
Here are the pace data for all courses for all non-handicap hurdle races over the 2 mile 2 to 2 mile 6 trip:
The figures are similar to the shorter distances though possibly the front running bias hass very slightly diminished. In terms of courses, amazingly Bangor on Dee is top again from a front running bias perspective – there is unquestionably a marked advantage to those horses that lead early at Bangor.
I thought for this interim distance group I would investigate some run style trainer data. I wanted to see which trainers had been the most successful when sending their runners out into the early lead in non-handicap hurdle races of 2m 2f to 2m 6f.
To that end, below are two graphs – firstly, trainer performance with front runners in terms of win strike rate; and secondly, looking at their respective A/E values.
As you might expect there are a high proportion of trainers that appears in both charts. Nicky Henderson tops both lists but this does not mean he sends a huge proportion of his runners to the front early; it shows, however, that when he does they fare extremely well. For the record here is Henderson's breakdown by running / pace style over this distance block:
His front runners clearly do best in terms of win strike rate, A/E value and IV. It is interesting though that only 11% - one in nine - of Henderson's horses actually take the early lead. But nearly half of them win!
It does make me wonder if trainers are really aware of pace bias... Below is his 'pace pie chart' in terms of percentage of runners that demonstrate a particular pace or running style.
44% of his runners raced off the pace early which is far too large a number in my opinion.
2 miles 7 furlong or more
The third and final grouping are the longer distance non-handicap hurdle races, from just shy of three miles upwards.
There are far fewer longer races as can be seen, but the same pattern emerges. Front runners perform best with prominent runners next best.
Trainers by Run Style (All distances)
I have already touched upon trainers but thought it might be interesting to create some trainer pace figures. To create the trainer pace figures I have simply added up the Geegeez pace points for a particular trainer and divided it by the number of runners. The higher the average the more prominent the trainer tends to race his charges. I have created trainer pace figures which cover all distances in non-handicap hurdles. Here are the trainers with the highest averages:
Rebecca Curtis tops the list and clearly favours positioning her runners nearer the front than the back. Her 'pace pie chart' below demonstrates this even more clearly:
As you can see 25% of Curtis's runners take the early lead, while another nigh on 50% race prominently and close to the pace. Ms Curtis is a trainer who understands the importance of forward run styles. It should come as no surprise therefore that you would have made a profit backing all of her runners ‘blind’ during this time frame. For the record, 53 of Curtis's runners were held up, and only 4 won (SR 7.55%). Compare this to 23% and 21.83% win strike rates for her early leaders and prominent racers.
Let us now review Alan King’s pace pie chart as a comparison to Curtis.
His pace average stands at 1.99 with a measly 2% of his runners sent into an early lead. Overall losses for King have been significant especially with runners that raced mid division or near the back early.
*
I do believe that pace in a race is something which must be factored in to your betting. Pace biases vary from race type to race type, distance to distance, course to course, etc. However, if you are prepared to do some digging that other punters are not, you will give yourself a significant edge over the crowd.
This article has hopefully offered a good chunk of information to digest, but in reality I have barely scratched the surface. If you really want to profit from run style/pace then the Geegeez tools are there for you to test your own ideas and crunch pace data to your heart’s content.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/bangor-on-dee.jpg320816Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2021-09-20 16:47:442021-09-20 16:48:00Pace Bias in Non-Handicap Hurdle Races
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