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Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44

45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1

Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

 

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)

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Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)

Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)

Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday.  Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today.  The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event.  The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth.  Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate.  Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:

5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced

8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced

 

4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today.  We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa.  Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.

 

5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘.  Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame.  Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE.  Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

 

5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract!  The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner.  Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager.  It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 22nd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 22

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £49.40 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £1,251.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £139.40 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £84.20 (7 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £195.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £257.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £2,568.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £649.28 

45 favourites - 13 winners - 12 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 42.9% units went through – 20/1 – 2/1* - 20/1

Race 2: 62.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 -10/1 – 9/4*

Race 3: 96.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 11/4 – 9/2

Race 4: 83.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 12/1

Race 5: 24.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 27.9% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 13/2 – 14/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 10 (Main Edition), 1 (Angel’s Hideaway) & 8 (Just Wonderful)

Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Old Persian), 6 (Elector) & 5 (Highbrow)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Sioux Nation), 11 (Invisible Army) & 20 (Heartache)

Leg 4 (4.20): 3 (Alpha Centauri) & 12 (Veracious)

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Leg 5 (5.00): 16 (Desert Diamond), 15 (Ceilidh’s Dream & 17 (Agrotera)

Leg 6 (5.35): 5 (Appeared), 4 (Walton Street) & 15 (Eynhallow)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Mark Johnston snared the last race on Thursday and MAIN EDITION is my idea of the likeliest winner of the opening contest today, especially with the trainer having booked James Doyle to ride the Zoffany filly.  The combination boast a 5/15 ratio this season and coming into this event having won both of her races in impressive style to date, MAIN EDITION is the first name on the team sheet.  Others to consider include ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY (looks a tad big at 16/1 with Unibet for a ‘Frankie’ contender) and JUST WONDERFUL who appears to be the pick of the O’Brien pair at the top of the market.

Favourite factor: Twelve favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last sixteen renewals, statistics which include four winners.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last five year and there will be worse outsiders on the card today than his Dansili colt ELECTOR I’ll wager.  Zaaki ran well at a big price yesterday (as I anticipated) and ELECTOR could follow suit in what could arguably be called a slight sub-standard renewal of the ‘Edward VII’ this afternoon.  Talking of outsiders, I would not readily dismiss the chance of HIGHBROW at 25’s either, albeit a more logical winner to consider is OLD PERSIAN from my viewpoint. 7/1 about Rostropoich might be worth consideration from a win perspective, but Aidan’s raider will not offer value for money from a Placepot angle according to the gospel of yours truly.  I took that view about Order Of St George yesterday which proved to be the right route to take having landed the forecast in the Gold Cup.

Favourite factor: This is the best race for favourite backers throughout the five days, with nine of the last twenty one market leaders having prevailed, a top priced winner of 12/1 being recorded during the study period.  Five of the other twelve market leaders finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Elector (soft)

 

3.40: Being a self-confessed 'trend anorak', I have come out in a nasty rash with only three contests to work from.  Last year’s ‘Queen Mary’ winner HEARTACHE is the ‘dark horse’ in the field and having rattled home here under fast conditions twelve months ago, I prepared to gamble that she will manage the sixth furlong well enough to potentially secure a Placepot position at around the 20/1 mark. INVISIBLE ARMY strikes me as a more logical winner over this trip however, with connections possibly having most to fear from SIOUX NATION. Conditions look set to suit Aidan O’Brien’s latter named raider which might just tip the scales in his favour.  Main Desire is another win and place option for speculative readers to consider.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite finished nearer last than first before the last two successful (7/4 & 5/6) favourites made amends on behalf of the majority of punters.

Record of the four course winners in the Commonwealth Cup:

1/1—Invincible Army (soft)

1/1—Sioux Nation (good to firm)

1/1—Speak In Colours (soft)

1/1—Heartache (good to firm)

 

4.20: ALPHA CENTUARI was the beaten 2/1 favourite when going under by a neck in last year’s ‘Albany’ here at the royal meeting.  Jessica Harrington’s Mastercraftsman filly is one of three Guineas winners in the line up this time around and I have a sneaking feeling that she will come out on top today.  The other classic heroines of late are passed over in favour of Sir Michael Stoute’s Frankel filly VERACIOUS whose mum Infallible finished second in this event to Lush Lashes ten years ago.  I’m content to let this pair do the talking for me in the most open ‘Coronation’ for quite a while, on paper at least.

Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last sixteen renewals was the 12/1 chance that scored in 2012, during which time nine market leaders have won, albeit those figures include four joint favourites.  Fourteen of the last 26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

5.00: High numbers in the draw appear to have the edge this week (as is usually the case in all honesty) up the straight mile course whereby the chance for DESERT DIAMOND (drawn) 19/23 is very much respected.  Connections of AGROTERA (5) have not been so fortunate but Jamie Spencer knows the time of day at this venue and will be plotting his own route at breakfast, if he allowed such a luxury this morning!  Others to consider include Ralph Beckett’s pair from my viewpoint, namely CEILIDH’S DREAM (22) and DE FIDE (3) who are listed in order of preference but once again, mainly because of their relevant stall positions.

Favourite factor:  Five clear, one joint and one co favourite have obliged of late, whilst 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the Sandringham Stakes (Handicap): 

1/1—Dathanna (soft)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen contests, with five-year-olds claiming the other four renewals.  Indeed, five-year-olds have secured the last two tricast positions and taking all the facts and stats into consideration, the trio of APPEARED, WALTON STREET AND EYNHALLOW is listed in marginal order of preference.  APPEARED has to overcome a break of ten months from the track, though I cannot overlook the fact that Roger Varian’s raider runs off a two pound higher mark than when finishing second in the event twelve months ago behind one of my short listed selections who won at 20/1 before picking up a Listed prize next time out.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Sir Cheuvelin who looks ridiculously priced at 66/1 in a place at the time of writing.  The chance of Count Calabash is not discounted either from the other end of the market.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 22 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Appeared (good to firm)

1/4—Manjaam (good to firm)

1/1—Count Calabash (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 29th May

LEICESTER – MAY 29

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £20.50 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 90.2% units went through – 8/15* - 6/1 – 9/2

Race 2: 24.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 14/1 (2 x 5/2**)

Race 3: 48.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 5/2* - 7/1

Race 4: 79.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 8/1 – Evens*

Race 5: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 14/1

Race 6: 81.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/5* - 15/2 – 11/2

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Ballistic), 6 (Secret Venture) & 2 (Blyton)

Leg 2 (2.20): 2 (Flight Of Fantasy), 7 (Infanta Isabella) & 9 (Peace And Plenty)

Leg 3 (2.50): 6 (Shovel It On), 4 (Star Of Zaam) & 5 (Straight Ash)

Leg 4 (3.20): 3 (Angel’s Glory) & 2 (Cavatina)

Leg 5 (3.50): 4 (Fanaar) & 5 (Glorious Dane)

Leg 6 (4.20): 16 (Delph Crescent), 5 (I’m A Star) & 1 (Nibras Galaxy)

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Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BALLISTIC is a general 6/1 chance across the board at the time of writing and given that he finished ‘only’ four lengths adrift of an Aidan O’Brien favourite (finished third) at Newmarket recently, Jim Crowley’s mount represents an each way (potential) bet to nothing investment, albeit to small stakes.  Murqaab looks too skinny from my viewpoint at the third time of asking, whereby I’ll add newcomers SECRET VENURE and BYLTON into the Placepot mix for openers.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.20: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Harry Dunlop’s runners (alongside brother Ed’s for that matter) but FLIGHT OF FANTASY should give us a reasonable run for our collective monies in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  It might be worth taking into account that Harry has only saddled more winners at Salisbury than he has managed at this venue down the years and with the ‘Dunlop’ name en masse strongly associated with the Wiltshire racecourse, Harry’s Leicester record is decent enough.  Others to consider from a win and place perspective include INFANTA ISABELLA and PEACE AND PLENTY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite prevailed.

Leicester record of the two course winners in the second event: 

1/2—Flight Of Fantasy (good to soft)

1/1—Bakht A Rowan (heavy)

 

2.50: All nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 which eliminates the top three horses in the handicap, two of which are well fancied according to the trade press. The trio which make most appeal from the other five options in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest are course winner SHOVEL IT ON, STAR OF ZAAM and STRAIGHT ASH.

Favourite factor: Two (6/4 & 5/2) favourites have prevailed via nine renewals to date, whilst seven of the nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Leicester record of the course winner in the field: 

1/3—Shovel It On (soft)

 

3.20: The trio of winners thus far have scored at 33/1, 10/1 & 9/2 with the prices getting bigger year on year!  Hoping those stats will not have put you off having a bet in the race, I’m offering up ANGEL’S GLORY to go very close in this grade/company.  It took a subsequent ‘Listed’ winner to stop the Invincible Spirit filly scoring at the first time of asking this term and it’s doubtful that there is a rival of that class in this field.  Andrea Atzeni will have (presumably) had the option of riding stable companion Elation, which leads yours truly to thinking that CAVATINA is the biggest threat to the selection this afternoon.  Lady Willpower receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor: Both of the (11/4 & 9/4) favourites had missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s even money market scrambled home in third place to reduce the deficit.

 

3.50: The Hannon team think a great deal of GLORIOUS DANE, that much I know to be true but there might be a doubt about him beating FANAAR over six furlongs, with Fran Berry’s mount being an Olympic Glory colt.  Either way, I suggest you set the video up for this event to determine just how good Glorious Dane might be later in the the season.  FANNAR did little wrong at the first time of asking and looks something of a Placepot banker, whichever of the pair wins, unless Sir Michael Stoute’s Kingman colt ALNASHERAT proves to be something out of the ordinary.  I urge you to take note of that last sentence, given that Michael has saddled more juvenile winners at Leicester than anywhere else in this green and (blessedly still) pleasant land.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and three joint favourites have won via twelve renewals, whilst the relevant winners to date scored at a top price of 8/1.  Nine of the fourteen favourites have snared Placepot positions to date.

 

4.20: DELPH CRESCENT appeals at odds of 20/1 in a place this morning, fully expecting Richard Fahey’s raider to contract to around the 14/1 mark before too long as business gets fully under way.  Richard took his ratio to 3/4 at the track yesterday with a winner from the other end of the market, though Paul Hanagan’s mount is still expected to give a decent account at the odds on offer.  Others for the mix include I’M A STAR, NIBRAS GALAXY and IMMORTAL ROMANCE.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th May

LEICESTER – MAY 28

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £21.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 41.6% units went through – 15/8* - 20/1 – 14/1

Race 2: 78.3% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 5/2

Race 3: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 6/1 – 10/3*

Race 4: 87.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 9/2 – 4/6*

Race 5: 62.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 9/4*

Race 6: 30.8% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1 (Win only – 6/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 6 (Strongarm Chaser), 8 (Racehorse) & 5 (Full Suit)

Leg 2 (2.20): 4 (Miss Mumtaz), 2 (Katie Lee) & 6 (Downtown Mombasa)

Leg 3 (2.55): 3 (Barton Mills), 1 (Etefaaq) & 6 (Prince Ahwanee)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Raa Atoll) & 1 (Photographer)

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Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Burgonet) & 3 (Sailing Home)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Jumira Bridge), 1 (Aclimatise) & 7 (Najashee)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nine of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2, which rules out the top four horses in the handicap, leaving the likes of STRONGARM CHASER, RACEHORSE and FULL SUIT to assess.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference before we get some clues from the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the last ten renewals during which time, eight winners scored at a top price of 7/2.  Eight of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

2.20: Ian Williams can do little wrong just now and the popular handler has declared MISS MUMTAZ with definite claims in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  Talented rivals are only conspicuous by their absence in the main, possible excluding the likes of KATIE LEE and DOWNTOWN MOMBASA.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for fillies – always encouraged) on the Leicester card

 

2.55: Twelve winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which eliminate Airshow at the bottom of the handicap.  BARTON MILLS and ETEFAAQ both sport headgear for the first time and I anticipate the aids to have the desired effect, particularly from a Placepot perspective in a half decent contest.  PRINCE AHWANEE completes my trio against the remaining six entries.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders snared Placepot positions.  Nine of the twelve winners during the study period scored at a top price of 9/1.

 

3.30: RAA ATOLL and PHOTOGRAPHER jumped off the page in a flash (apologies offered!) with John Gosden’s pair fully expected to claim Placepot positions.  Readers looking for an alternative option could do worse than consider the merits of Rashdan.

Favourite factor: This is another new (novice) contest on the Leicester programme.

 

4.05: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Ed Dunlop’s runners.  When I include his representatives in the mix they disappoint and vice versa.  Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the country as I am passing up the chance of Ed’s recent Chepstow winner Qaswarah.  I prefer BURGONET and SAILING HOME, from a value for money perspective if little else.

Favourite factor: This is becoming a little repetitive being the third new race at the meeting.

 

4.40: Four-year-olds have won both renewals thus far and whilst that fact does not pass as a trend just yet, I’ll opt for the scenario to be extended by vintage representatives, JUMIRA BRIDGE, ACLIMATISE and NAJASHEE.

Favourite factor: Only one of the two favourites thus far secured a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Jay Kay (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st May

WINDSOR – MAY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8.70 (6 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Come On Leicester) & 7 (Kadiz)

Leg 2 (6.45): 5 (Oona), 4 (Main Edition) & 7 (Satisfying)

Leg 3 (7.15): 3 (Di Alta), 2 (Alwaysandforever) & 1 (Colonial Classic)

Leg 4 (7.45): 2 (D’bai) & 5 (Projection)

Leg 5 (8.15): 9 (Margie’s Choice), 2 (Agrotera) & 12 (Solar Gold)

Leg 6 (8.45): 6 (Kirkland Forever) & 5 (Biotic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: Richard Hannon’s has claimed two of the three renewals in which the stable was represented and COME ON LEICESTER appears to have been well placed to improve upon a good effort at Ascot at the first time of asking. One of the few worries is that the Kodiac juvenile was not one of the two-year-olds discussed on a recent stable tour.  KADIZ looks the only threat but following a half decent debut effort at Newmarket (good going), the Richard Hughes raider let supporters down at Salisbury, albeit that event was contested on heavy ground.  The other negative at the time of writing is that Shane Kelly’s mount is particularly weak on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: All four markets have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include a trio of odds on winners.  That said, favourite backers should not consider this event as a ‘gimme’ as a 1/5 favourite was turned over recently from a win perspective.

 

6.45: Richard Hannon has a chance of landing the first two races on the card, having declared his Kodiac newcomer OONA. Richard stated a while ago that he would wait for the six furlong races for this juvenile and has wasted little time in entering his February foal.  Not over big in size, Tom Marquand’s mount will appreciate this fast ground I’ll wager, though with Ryan Moore riding MAIN EDITION for Mark Johnston here, nothing is taken for granted.  SATISFYING is the other potential winner in the field having only been beaten two lengths on debut at Ascot.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural contest was won by the 9/4 favourite, leading home horses at 7/1 and 66/1 in a ‘dead eight’ event.

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7.15: Although only three runners face the starter, this is an intriguing contest, especially as the outsider DI ALTA was the subject of overnight support, despite his course victory having been gained with some moisture in the ground.  That said, Ed Walker’s filly has a silver medal effort to boast under these faster conditions and there is no way that I am leaving the High Chaparral representative out of the (win only) Placepot mix.  ALWAYSANDFOREVER and COLONIAL CLASSIC make up the trio in what should prove to be a fascinating race.  If you fancy the favourite to oblige but are fearful of another result ensuing, you can always add another bet into the equation, banking on the favourite which will give you additional revenue should your main permutation be successful.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame behind horses returned at 4/1 and 3/1. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Windsor record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Di Alta (good to soft)

 

7.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and this year’s lone vintage contender can go close, namely D’BAI representing Charlie Appleby, whose horses invariably seem to be at the top of their game.  I don’t think I have called THE TIN MAN right on any of his recent assignments.  When I fancy the Equiano gelding, James Fanshawe’s raider disappoints – and vice versa!  At the prices, I’m inclined to pass him by on this occasion (please form an orderly queue at betting shops the length and breadth of the country), opting for GIFTED MASTER and PROJECTION (especially) as bigger threats tonight.  At 33/1, three time course winner Tropics will have his supporters but only receiving weight here from Gifted Master, the ten-year-old will (no doubt) have better opportunities to strike again later in the season.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until 2016 for another winning market leader to come along.  The race reverted to ‘recent type’ twelve months ago with the 9/4 market leader finishing only third, albeit a Placepot position was gained.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Makzeem (good to firm)

1/2—Projection (good to firm)

1/1—The Tin Man (good)

3/5—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden has won with both of his runners here at Windsor this season, albeit at much shorter prices than the quote of 9/2 which is on offer for stable raider MARGIE’S CHOICE this evening.  Indeed, Nicky Mackay’s mount is weak on the exchanges at the time of writing, though that should not deny her securing a second Placepot position from as many opportunities thus far.  That said, SOLAR GOLD and AGROTERA are serious rivals on this occasion and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last fourteen renewals during which time, twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.45: Ten of the last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and KIRKLAND FOREVER and BIOTIC are the value for money calls to land the Placepot dividend for us, without taking it for granted that we will have reached this event ‘intact’.  The 15/8 trade press quote about Dangerous Ends makes no appeal whatsoever, whilst Essenaitch would probably prefer a less lively surface.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the last 22 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

1/9—Biotic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

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Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 3rd May

REDCAR – MAY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £4.40 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 73.7% units went through – 7/2 & 15/8*

Race 2: 53.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/13* & 11/2

Race 3: 91.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 15/8 – 14/1

Race 4: 57.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* & 11/4

Race 5: 69.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 3/1* - 8/1

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/4* - 9/2 – 11/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Redcar: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Tarrzan) & 7 (Willow Brook)

Leg 2 (2.40): 5 (Pretty Baby) & 4 (Gild Stone)

Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Robsdelight) & 3 (Ekanse)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Maksab), 3 (Completion) & 2 (Poet’s Prince)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Shovel It On) & 2 (Al Khan)

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Leg 6 (4.40): 10 (Cristal Spirit), 1 (Canadian George) & 5 (Nibras Galaxy)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: Let’s start with calling a spade a spade shall we by suggesting that there is some turgid sport on offer today.  That said, favourite backers had no cause to complain at the corresponding meeting last year and Mick Channon should be able to get them off to a decent start at the first time of asking today having declared his third placed debut representative TARRZAN who ran at Dundalk.  It’s disappointing to see Mick having to drop his new inmate into a seller which I guess should serve as a warning point for anyone looking to dive in too heavily his afternoon.  WILLOW BROOK receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor:

Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions (stats include two winners at 8/11 and 4/6), though detectives are still combing the area looking for the inaugural unplaced 11/8 market leader.

 

2.40: Kevin Ryan won with all three of his runners yesterday and with GOLD STONE having won on her second start at Beverley the last day under similar (good) conditions, Kevin’s Havana Gold filly should go close here, albeit southern raiders PRETTY BABY and LEFT ALONE are obvious dangers.  The first named William Haggas raider ran well enough at York to suggest that her subsequent Chelmsford victory was predictable.  William’s Orpen filly has a chance to secure a success here en route to better things.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Redcar card.

 

3.10: Silvestre De Sousa attempts to ride his first winner for Gay Kelleway at the ninth attempt here having been booked to ride ROBSDELIGHT who has attracted money on the exchanges overnight.  We’re not talking massive investments you understand but on this card (or anywhere today I suspect), it will not take a great ammont of cash to move markets.  EKANSE carries famous colours and it’s worth noting that his mum Esterlina won on debut over a slightly longer trip, albeit she failed to add to that victory via four subsequent assignments.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess on the Redcar programme.

 

3.40: A 16 ounce ‘hike’ for a decent run by MAKSAB at ‘headquarters’ last time out should ensure that Mick Channon’s other runner at this meeting (aside from Tarrzan in the opening event) will get involved at the business end of proceedings, especially as De Sousa retains the ride from Newmarket with (seemingly) the jockey having been offered an input as to where the three-year-old Makfi colt was going to run next.  COMPLETION and POET’S PRINCE add interest to this Class 4 contest.  Sha La La La Lee’s Wolverhampton success does not warrant a 13/8 price from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Racing at this venue has long since left me cold and this many new races on a card hardly changes my mind relating to this racecourse.

 

4.10: The terms and conditions of this event suggest that SHOVEL IT ON is exactly what favourite backs might to this afternoon relating to the David Evans three-year-old Elusive Pimpernel gelding.  Only AL KHAN represents any kind of threat, a scenario which increases given Kevin Ryan’s hat trick yesterday which means that the trainer has saddled five of his last seven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the only course winner on the card:

1/7—Gaelic Wizard (good to soft)

 

4.40: Although plenty of respect is offered to CRISTAL SPIRIT (particularly from a Placepot perspective) value for money might be found elsewhere given the declarations of CANADIAN GEORGE (one of several interesting bookings for De Sousa on the card) and NIBRAS GALAXY.  It will be interesting to see if the exchange money for Moltoire grows as the hours tick by.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is yet another new race.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 7th November

EXETER - NOVEMBER 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.90 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 placed)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 11 (Just A Sting) & 12 (Mance Rayder)

Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Dynamite Dollars) & 5 (Gaelic Prince)

Leg 3 (2.00): 6 (Politologue), 2 (Sir Valentino), 4 (Garde La Victoire)

Leg 4 (2.35): 3 (Barney Dwan), 2 (Ballyoptic) & 4 (De Dollar Man)

Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Above Board), 3 (Royal Palladium) & 1 (Ask The Weatherman)

Leg 6 (3.35): 4 (Arthur McBride) & 5 (Western Wave)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: Five-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals and the trade press price of 11/4 about dual winner JUST A STING does not look realistic with the rain falling as I write this column in the west country.  Indeed, you should witness the latest news for yourself later this morning as the threat of showers (or longer spells of rain) are set to last until around lunchtime.  A course winner under soft conditions already (albeit in a bumper event), JUST A STING should get the best of the ground before plenty of runners on the card churn up the turf.  Rain will be welcomed by Philip Hobbs and the connections for their soft ground bumper winner MANCE RAYDER I fancy, given that the relevant Warwick victory was gained under soft conditions.  For the record, Philip has saddled three winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years.  SILVER KAYF will probably put his more varied experience to good use to secure the other Placepot position.

Favourite factor: The nine favourites have secured four gold, three silver and one bronze medal thus far.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Just A Sting (good to soft)

 

1.30: Paul Nicholls (DYNAMITE DOLLRS) leads Philip Hobbs (GAELIC PRINCE) 4-3 via the last ten renewals, whilst I implore you to look at the favourite stats below!  Market leaders boast a truly phenomenal record in this contest (as good as any race in the land I’ll wager) whereby I cannot look beyond this pair.  Only if the ground came up really soft by early afternoon would I be looking at adding Dessinateur into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Thirteen winning favourites have emerged at 1/6, 4/11, 4/9, 4/9, 4/7, Evens, 10/11, 8/13, 8/11, 11/8, 13/8, 7/4 and 15/8**, whilst the biggest priced scorer to date was returned at 8/1.  Eighteen of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, whilst favourites come to the gig on a 12 timer on this occasion!

 

2.00: Paul Nicholls has won five of the last nineteen ‘Haldon Gold Cup’ contests and significantly, POLITOLOGUE and San Benedeto were his only entries at the four day stage.   Tom George has been a thorn in Paul’s side relating to two of the last three renewals of this event, whereby SIR VALENTINO demands to be added into the mix.  10/1 is an attractive price to consider because although Tom’s progressive eight-year-old was winning this race on good going twelve months ago, his record under soft conditions is 3/6.  GARDE LA VICTOIRE was short headed by Sir Valentino last year and the Philip Hobbs representative looks sure to be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  For the record, Richard Johnson’s mount is 4/6 on soft ground.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Nine winners have emerged from the front three horses in the betting during the last fifteen years.

Record of the course winners in the Haldon Gold Cup:

1/3—Sir Valentino (good)

1/2—Garde La Victoire (good to soft)

1/1—Politologue (heavy)

2/3—Vibrato Valtat (soft & heavy)

 

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2.35: BARNEY DWAN was withdrawn from this event last year and with Fergal O’Brien boasting current stats of 7/17 of late (stats which have produced 26 points of level stake profit), Noel Fehily’s mount could take some stopping, especially with rain getting into the ground during the course of the day.  That said, BALLYOPTIC is already a Grade 1 winner over timber and having won a race ‘between the flags’ earlier in his career, the Twiston-Davies camp will be enthusiastic about his chance on his chase debut.  Let’s hope that both horses jump well enough to create a ‘best horse on the day’ success, whichever way the race pans out.  I’m also drawn towards DE DOLLAR MAN for Evan Williams, especially as the Vinnie Roe gelding is the only runner on the card for the stable.  Whatever the six-year-old achieves here will surely be improved upon later in the season.

Favourite factor: The three (8/15, 11/8 & 2/1) favourites have all won their respective events thus far.

 

3.05: Eight and nine-year-old’s have produced six of the ten winners to date with the ‘older set’ having secured four of the last eight contests.  Eight-year-old ASK THE WEATHERMAN is certainly included in my mix but then again, the 14/1 quote by a few bookmakers about the chance of nine-year-old ROYAL PALLADIUM is also catching the eye at the time of writing. Indeed, this is the race on the card which has just about kept the bookmakers afloat during the last decade, with six of the ten winners having been returned in double figures, ranging in price between 10/1 and 25/1.  At the other end of the spectrum, ABOVE BOARD looks a worthy favourite for those of you with less speculative tendencies.

Favourite factor: Five market leaders having finished in the frame to date (one winner) via ten renewals.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Royal Palladium (soft)

1/6—Wizards Bridge (soft)

2/3—You Say What (good to soft & heavy)

1/6—Castarne (soft)

3/8—Only Gorgeous (good to firm – good – soft)

 

3.35: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last nine renewals, with five-year-old WESTERN WAVE expected to lead home the relevant four entries on this occasion.  Tom George’s Westerner gelding might have to give best to ARTHUR MCBRIDE however, with the Twiston-Davies team seemingly having found a nice opportunity for their unexposed eight-year-old following a spin on the level just three weeks ago.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the eleven favourites have finished in the money (five of which won their respective events), via nine renewals to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Eddy (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Tuesday – followed by Exeter record this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Paul Nicholls (2/6 – loss of 1 point)

4—Sue Gardner (3/9 +12)

4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

3—Jack R Barber (No previous runners this season at Exeter)

3—Philip Hobbs (1/7 – Slight profit)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (No previous runners)

3—Tim Vaughan (0/5)

3—Venetia Williams (0/2)

3—Laura Young (No previous runners)

2—Kim Bailey (0/4)

2—Alexandra Dunn (No previous runners)

2—Tom George (0/3)

2—Mark Gillard (0/1)

2—Tom Lacey (1/3 – Slight profit)

2—Graeme McPherson (0/1)

2—Neil Mulholland (0/4)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/4)

2—Nick Williams (No previous runners)

2—Robert Walford (1/2 +1)

83 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Redcar: £109.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners –  placed – 1 unplaced

Kempton A/W: £35.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £330.60 - 8 favourites – 2 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 30th October

LEICESTER - OCTOBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £595.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 7 (Towelrads Boy), 3 (Red Symbal) & 4 (Sarstedt)

Leg 2 (12.45): 9 (Rainbow Jazz), 15 (Foxrush Take Time), 16 (Shadow Seeker) & 11 (Rosedale Topping)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Master The World) & 6 (Dance The Dream)

Leg 4 (1.55): 8 (Fire Brigade), 10 (Mazyoun) & 5 (King’s Pavilion)

Leg 5 (2.30): 7 (Topmeup) & 1 (Sans Souci Bay)

Leg 6 (3.05): 2 (Clubbable) & 4 (Haylah)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: Horses at the head of the market had totally dominated this event until a rogue 14/1 chance emerged six years ago – after which the race revered to type until a 16/1 winner reared its ugly head two years back.  Although Paul Cole has only saddled six winners via a modest 15% strike rate (by Paul’s night standards) with his two-year-old runners this season, the trainer boasts level stake profits of 18 points which suggests that his ‘outsider’ TOWELRADS BOY is not without a chance in this opening event.  Money has arrived for Paul’s Red Jazz colt who looks to have genuine each way/Placepot claims in this grade/company at the first time of asking.  If you are reading this in the dead of night, you might like to note that Hills are offering 11/1 about Paul’s April foal – win, lose or draw.  Others to consider include the Haggas newcomer RED CYMBAL and SARSTEDT, albeit Henry Candy’s latter named Sixties Icon colt is looking a little exposed now on his fifth assignment.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have a fine record in this event as five of eleven market leaders have prevailed, if you decide to take my point that this is not the ‘new race’ as the media would have us believe.  The same classification is in place (same Class/distance etc) whereby the prefix of this now being a ‘novice’ event as opposed to last year’s ‘maiden’ makes no difference to results from my viewpoint.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame, with three of the six beaten favourites having secured the silver medals in their respective events.

 

12.45: 14 of the 18 winners have carried weights of 9-4 or less, whilst six of those gold medallists were burdened with a maximum of 8-13. Taking the stats and facts into consideration produces a short list of RAINBOW JAZZ, FOXRUSH TAKE TIME, SHADOW SEEKER and ROSEDALE TOPPING from a Placepot perspective in a tight looking two-year-old handicap.  Considering his 0/17 record at the track during the last five years, the overnight support for the first named Mark Usher raider is difficult to understand though that said, this Class 5 Nursery contest will not take a great deal of winning.

Favourite factor: Seven of the 16 winners of this event in recent times have been returned at 20/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1 (twice) alongside three winning favourites. Eight of the 19 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/2—Felisa (good to soft)

 

1.20: NOBLE GIFT was withdrawn from this event when fancied to figure prominently by your truly twelve months ago. As a winner of two of his subsequent 17 races since landing this event two years ago, William Knight’s front runner could finish in the mix if offered an easy lead, though DANCE THE DREAM and MASTER THE WORLD are preferred from a win perspective.  David Elsworth latter named raider was receiving plenty of support on the exchanges when writing up this event, whereby connections might be more confident of MASTER THE WORLD staying this trip than the trade press staff who have aired their concerns.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have secured Placepot positions to date by winning their respective events at 2/1 & 7/4. As so often seems to be the case, the shortest priced (5/4) market leader missed out when finishing third in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which horses have to finish in the first two to qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

1/2—Dance The Dream (good to soft)

1/3—Noble Gift (soft)

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1.55: Three and four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 15 renewals of this event (juniors lead 8-5 in the process), whilst seven of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  It defied belied that just three of the ten declarations from the relevant vintages last year contested the event, producing the successful 7/2 favourite and a 7/1 bronze medallist.  Just two ‘junior’ raider =s have been declared this time around, namely FIRE BRIGADE and MAZYOUN. The pick of the four-year-old’s on this occasion might prove to be KING’S PAVILION.  The dark horse in the race is Chatez who won at 14/1 for yours truly the last time we saw his him a racecourse, fully two and a half years ago.  With the stats supporting the younger horses, I am just about content to pass over Alan King’s raider on this occasion, though don’t be at all surprised if CHATEZ outruns his odds before his lack of race fitness tells at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Five of the last fifteen renewals have been secured by favourites, though five other scorers were returned at 33/1-16/1-11/1-10/1-10/1 during the study period.  Ten of the 18 favourites finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

1/2—Gurkha Friend (good to soft)

 

2.30: The terms and conditions of this Claiming event point towards three-year-olds who lead 22-9 via the available toteplacepot positions, whilst the last nine winners all carried a maximum burden of 8-13.  The stats and facts suggest that TOPMEUP should go close, though conditions have come right for course winner SANS SOUCI BAY.  Last night’s dipping temperatures suggest that the ground will retain moisture today given any ‘thawing’ of frost, whatever else the weather decides to do today.

Favourite factor: Just one (4/1 joint) favourite has scored via ten renewals during the last 13 years, whilst four of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—San Souci Bay

 

3.05: Whilst I would not contemplate backing either horse to win the race at the prices on offer, CLUABBABLE and HAYLAH are surely destined to claim at least one Placepot positon between them.  If I have been accurate is assessing the second race on the card as being a benefit contest for bookmakers, I am allowing myself the opportunity of ‘laying off’ my two two Placepot selections at exceptionally skinny (place) prices on the exchanges in the last leg of our favourite wager, especially if a really good dividend is in the offing.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a ‘genuine new race’ on the Leicester card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Monday + this year’s Leicester stats & level stake profit/loss evaluation:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (5/32 – loss of 3 points)

3—David Evans (6/30 +9)

3—Richard Hannon (7/40 – loss of 5 points)

3—Ali Stronge (0/1)

3—David O’Meara (1/12 – loss of 8 points)

3—Marcus Tregoning (1/3 +8)

2—Karl Burke (1/17 – loss of 10 points)

2—Henry Candy (1/6 – loss of 3 points)

2—James Fanshawe (4/7 +19)

2—Richard Guest (0/3)

2—William Haggas (1/19 – loss of 6 points)

2—John Jenkins (0/3)

2—Alan King (3/10 +10)

2—Martin Smith (0/2)

2—Mark Usher (0/2)

+ 49 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £241.40 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 6 unplaced

Redcar: £51.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 20th October

WINCANTON - OCTOBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £9.80 (7 favourites - 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 3 (Gibbes Bay), 1 (Molineaux) & 4 Cornish Warrior)

Leg 2 (2.15): 10 (Roll The Dough), 1 (Bishops Court) & 2 (Gentleman Jon)

Leg 3 (2.50): 4 (Garo De Juilley) & 5 (East Indies)

Leg 4 (3.25): 6 (Cucklington), 4 (Red Square Revival) & 8 (Goosen Maverick)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Dan McGrue) & 7 (White Moon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Wolftrap) & 3 (The Last But One)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: The first point to note (perhaps) is that Paul Nicholls secured a 96/1 five-timer on the corresponding day last year, stats which included an 8/1 treble at this venue. Five-year-olds have won the last five renewals of the opening event and wouldn’t you just know it, Paul has declared his five-year-old gelding GIBBES BAY to contest the opening event, one of his five runners on the card.  Not to be outdone, Colin Tizzard’s MOLINEAUX heads the trainer’s seven entries at Wincanton, bearing in mind that the previous year, Colin landed a 174/1 treble at this popular west-country venue.  Whatever you are planning to back today, please take into account that here in Bristol (we are not far north of Wincanton), reporting that we had plenty of rain here yesterday whereby I will be a tad staggered if the reported good ground remains in place throughout the day.  Good to soft winner CORNISH WARRIOR looks to be open to plenty of improvement and Noel Fehily’s mount completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have been returned via just seven contests, market leaders having secured three gold medals, three silver and one of the bronze variety.

 

2.15: Eight-year-olds have secured seven of the last 13 renewals, if you include one that dead-heated four years ago.  Vintage representative ROLL THE DOUGH is saddled by Philip Hobbs who is the only other trainer (apart from the pair mentioned in the opening event) to have saddled more than one winner on this corresponding card during the last five years.  Connections of the dual course soft ground winner BISHOPS COURT will be waiting for an ease in the ground to be officially announced sometime this morning I’ll wager, whilst GENTLEMAN JON (winner of this race two years ago) seems to be at home under any conditions.

Favourite factor: Four of the fourteen renewals have been won by favourites during the last fifteen years.  Seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the second contest on the card:

2/5—Bishops Court (2 x soft)

4/8—Gentleman Joe (2 x good to firm – good – soft)

1/8—Norarfbad (soft)

2/4—Dance King (good & good to soft)

 

2.50: Gary Moore saddled two of his five runners (on the level) to winning effect yesterday and the popular trainer will be hoping that EAST INDIES will extend the good run in a race which has greatly favoured well fancied horses thus far, albeit after just three renewals. Paul Nicholls has declared GARO DE JUILLEY though to be honest, nearly all the leading southern based trainers are represented in an interesting encounter.  You are in a better position than yours truly (at the time of writing) in terms of potentially adding GENERAL GINGER if support begins to evolve during the morning for Harry Fry’s Generous gelding.

Favourite factor: The three (5/2-9/4-6/5) favourites to date duly prevailed.

Record of the course winners in the field:

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2/6—On Demand (good & good to firm)

3/9—Thundering Home (good to firm – soft – heavy)

 

3.25: Six-year-olds have won two of the four renewals (runner up last year) via less than 25% of the total number of runners, with CUCKLINGTON potentially leading home the four relevant entries on this occasion.  Colin Tizzard’s Kayf Tara gelding is available at 5/1 in plenty of places this morning and his each way/Placepot chance is there for all to see, though whether I would back Harry Cobden’s mount to actually win the contest as another matter entirely, especially with RED SQUARE REVIVAL also among the declarations.  Interestingly, GOOSEN MAVERICK as the subject of each way support at the time of writing, almost right across the board.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.

 

4.00: Three of the last four market leaders have scored, all trained by either Paul Nicholls (Dan McGrue) or Colin Tizzard (WHITE MOON) and the trend looks set to continue, one way or the other in a disappointing event. It looks as though the pair will have to make plenty of hurdling mistakes if any of the other five runners are to be given a chance of even making the frame in this short field contest.  New readers might like to know that the terms ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have snared Placepot positions, statistics which include three (8/11, 4/6 & 4/9) winners.

 

4.35: A great deal of time has passed by since I passed on the news that favourites in extended handicap hurdle events (beyond the minimum trip) have the worst record in racing as far as successful market leaders are concerned though always trying to offer an accurate assessment, market leaders in this race have not fared too badly (see stats below).   Ten of the last twelve winners have carried 11-4 or more, whilst I feel duty bound to inform that every trainer who has saddled a winner during the last decade in this event is only conspicuous by his absence and yes that is ‘politically correct’ as male trainers have dominated of late.  The ground might go against the recent Worcester winner Stonemadforspeed and I am homing in on the pair WOLFTRAP and THE LAST BUT ONE, though shouldn’t the latter named Paul Nicholls raider have run in the previous race?

Favourite factor: Eleven of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with four market leaders having prevailed from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/3—Sir Dylan (good & good to firm)

1/11—Benbecula (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Friday – followed by five year ratios + profit/losses accrued:

7 runners—Colin Tizzard (21/181 – loss of 50 points)

5—Paul Nicholls (74/211 – loss of 5 points)

4—Neil Mulholland (11/121 – loss of 42 points)

3—Bernard Llewellyn (0/12)

3—Jeremy Scott (8/89 – loss of 45 points)

2—Richenda Ford (0/10)

2—Philip Hobbs (21/133 – loss of 27 points)

2—Alan King (11/66 – loss of 14 points)

2—Emma Lavelle (11/56 +21)

2—Richard Mitchell (4/26 – loss of 6 points)

2—Gary Moore (2/36 – loss of 19 points)

2—Fergal O’Brien (0/17)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/26 – loss of 18 points)

2—Brendan Powell (1/31 – loss of 22 points)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £151.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced - NOW ABANDONED

Redcar: £156.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Fakenham: £23.30 – 6 favourites – 4 favourites – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle (A/W): £305.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.30 Uttoxeter : Classic Jewel @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 : Mid-division, close up 5th, chased leader 3 out, soon ridden, lost place between last 2, no impression with front pair before last, just held on for 3rd...

Friday's selection goes in the...

4.55 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Restive @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 6, 3yo+ Lady amateur riders' handicap over 1m2f on Good ground...

...and a 4 year old gelding trained by Iain Jardine, whose form at the end of the Flat season is generally something to keep an eye on as 2015-17 / Flat handicaps / August - October = 36/220 (16.4% SR) for 109.6pts at an ROI of 49.8%, including...

  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 34/174 (19.5%) for 138.7pts (+79.7%)
  • on Good ground : 13/64 (20.3%) for 88.3pts (+138%)
  • 4 yr olds are 13/57 (22.8%) for 76.6pts (+134.4%)
  • LTO runners-up are 6/31 (19.4%) for 54.4pts (+175.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/16 (18.75%) for 4.55pts (+28.4%)

Now in this type of race, jockey booking plays a big part in how the races unfold, but thankfully in Serena Brotherton, we have the UK's best Lady Amateur rider, one who is actually profitable to follow blindly!

Since the start of 2008, her record stands at 85/465 (18.3% SR) for 138pts (+29.7% ROI), whilst in handicaps, she is 83/454 (18.3%) for 143pts (+31.5%) and with today's contest in mind, those 454 handicap races include...

  • Amateur Riders Only : 75/397 (18.9%) for 104.3pts (+26.3%)
  • on Flat (turf) : 64/354 (18.1%) for 125.6pts (+35.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 39/241 (16.2%) for 47.9pts (+19.9%)
  • Ladies Only races : 44/226 (19.5%) for 124.5pts (+55.1%)
  • Lady Amateur races : 36/175 (20.6%) for 79.8pts (+45.6%)
  • on Good ground : 19/114 (16.7%) for 40.6pts (+35.6%)
  • and over today's 1m2f trip : 16/99 (16.2%) for 47.6pts (+48.1%)

Serena also rides Hannington in the 2nd division of this race (card here) and is worth a second look...

...but our bet is... a 1pt win bet on Restive @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from SkyBet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.30pm on Thursday. Those able to take 11/2 from Bet365 should do so and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 7th October

ASCOT - OCTOBER 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £110.10 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Waady) & 3 (Kyllang Rock)

Leg 2 (2.25): 9 (Waldgeist) & 5 (Great Hall)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Blue Point), 6 (Second Thought) & 1 (Magical Memory)

Leg 4 (3.35): 14 (Straight Right), 17 (Mikjack), 18 (Raising Sand), 16 (Amazour) & 9 (Makzeem)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Eternally) & 10 (One Master)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Shamshon), 2 (Lincoln) & 1 (Equimou)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: It’s difficult to look beyond WAADY for openers with John Gosden sending out consistent winners, having dominated this meeting in recent times.  As a trainer who absolutely loves snaring winners at top venues, John will be anxious to make up for one lost in the Steward’s room yesterday and aside from KYLLANG ROCK and (possibly) Sir Robert Cheval (the only course winner in the line up), WAADY looks to have been found an ideal opportunity by the popular trainer.  That said, money for KYLLANG ROCK would add interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: 15 of the last 16 winners have been returned at prices ranging between 9/2 and 33/1, with just one winning favourite recorded during the study period.  Six of the last 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions which in a competitive races such as this, is a half decent record.

Record of course winner in the opening event:

1/7—Sir Robert Cheval (good)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won seven renewals of the 'Cumberland Lodge' during the last 12 years, though this year’s main hope MIDTERM is a tough cookie to call given his inconsistency, a word you don’t often associate with runners from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. Andre Fabre has successfully raided these shores far too consistently for my liking down the years and the trainer appears to have studied the form book well enough for WALDGEIST to represent the yard to winning effect. GREAT HALL who would be such a popular winner for Mick Quinn.  Having won on both of his starts at this venue, the ground will be ideal, providing it does not dry out too much in the lead up to flag fall.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have won during the last 12 years alongside two joint favourites, whilst all 13 gold medallists have won at a top price of 5/1.  12 of the 16 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the ‘Cumberland Lodge’:

1/2—Secret Number (good to soft)

1/3—Danehill Kodiac (good to firm)

1/3—Arthenus (good to soft)

2/2—Great Hall (good to soft & soft)

 

3.00: Only a handful of three-year-olds have contested this event during the last seven years having secured four victories at 13/2, 6/1, 9/4 and 7/4, figures which are backed up by 20/1 and 8/1 silver medallists in two of the years when the vintage missed out from a win perspective.  The two relevant vintage raiders least year snared gold and bronze medals when returned at 7/4* and 10/1.  BLUE POINT is the obvious vintage representative to home in on given Charlie Appleby’s consistent form (recent ratio of 9/22) and bookmakers could be reeling by the time this race is finished if Waady and Waldgeist have ‘gone in’ before William Buick returns to the saddle to winning effect aboard the selection. Readers who like to be a little more speculative about their selections might home in on SECOND THOUGHT from an each way perspective at around the 10/1 mark this morning.  MAGICAL MEMORY is the other potential winner of the race from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (two winner at 9/4 & 7/4) thus far.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2—Blue Point (good to firm)

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1/4—Danzeno (good)

 

3.35: 12 of the 17 winners to date carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst four-year-olds have secured five of the last 11 contests.  No horse in the field possesses ticks in both of the trend boxes this time around unfortunately, with MIJACK and RAISING SAND standing out from the crowd via their respective marks.  That said, there is money for STRAIGHT RIGHT at the time of writing and with 12/1 quotes in places at the time of writing, I doubt those odds will be available by the time that shops open their doors later this morning.  MAKZEEM is the only four-year-old in the field that makes any appeal. Any money for the outsider Amazour would be worth heeding from an each way perspective and there are certainly a lot worse 25/1 chances on the Ascot card today.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 20 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders with favourites having won the last two contests at 11/2 & 9/2.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Speculative Bid (good to firm)

2/3—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)

 

4.10: Three-year-olds have won 14/15 renewals of this race to date, and with 7/13 runners represented by vintage raiders this time around, the odds are around 5/6 for another three-year-old winner to score before the form book comes into play.  However, that form book suggests that the declaration of last year’s winner ETERNALLY will make life tough for the juniors this time around.  ONE MASTER is a speculative call given the nature of her Yarmouth victory, though William Haggas does not ‘tilt at windmills’ with representatives that have little to offer whereby his Fastnet Rock filly is taken to lead home the three-year-olds ahead of Irish raider XENOBIA.  Plenty of support in the ring would bring James Tate’s Urban Fox into the equation.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged to date, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Eternally (good to soft)

 

4.50:  Racing off a five pound lower mark than when returned as the successful favourite last year, the Placepot chance (at the very least) for SHAMSHON is there for all to see, especially as the Stuart Williams raider won in July, albeit four subsequent efforts have failed to live up to that standard; hence the lower mark. LINCOLN and EQUIMOU are feared most though at 9/1 in a place, SHAMSHON would be the call from a win perspective.  The reserve nomination is awarded to JUSTICE LADY.

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have snared two gold medals and one of the bronze variety alongside Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/5--Shamshon (soft)

1/1—Escalating (soft)

1/5--Pettochside (soft)

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday (their number of winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years are in brackets where applicable): 

3 runners—Michael Appleby (1)

3—Andrew Balding (2)

3—Roger Charlton (1)

3—Robert Cowell

3—John Gosden (3)

3—Wlliam Haggas

3—David O’Meara (1)

3—James Tate

2—Karl Burke

2—David Elsworth (1)

2—Richard Fahey (2)

2—W T Farrell

2—Ron Harris

2—Charlie Hills

2—Ismail Mohammed

2—William Muir

2—Kevin Ryan (1)

+ 29 trainers with one entry

71 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £75.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Redcar: £53.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Fontwell: £59.30 – 6 favourites & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £48.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th September

GOODWOOD - SEPTEMBER 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £30.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 10 (Setting Sail) & 6 (Knightly Spirit)

Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Billesdon Brook) & 8 (Savaanah)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Me Too Nagasaki), 4 (Mr Red Clubs) & 5 (Turnpike Trip)

Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Promising Run), 8 (Billesdon Bess) & 6 (Monarchs Glen)

Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Graceland), 5 (Notice) & 6 (St Mary’s)

Leg 6 (4.50): 6 (Island Cloud), 4 (Abiento) & 5 (Ocean Temptress)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: There are a few decent looking favourites at this meeting, the first of which is SETTING SAIL who looks to be the horse to be with on the evidence of his excellent Leicester debut effort when this step up in trip looked the call on face value.  Charlie Appleby saddled the winner of this event last year and his Dubawi colt has a Racing Post Trophy entry this term, whilst the Irish 2000 Guineas has been (faintly) pencilled in for next season already.  KNIGHTLY SPIRIT appears to a worthy opponent but that looks to be where the race ends in terms of a potential winner.

Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

 

2.40: Heavy investments always have that touch of danger here at Goodwood in terms of horses handling the track and on soft ground, plenty of racegoers will keep their powder dry in such an uncompetitive looking contest.  Brave souls will plunge into BILLESDON BROOK however, especially as Richard Hannon’s February foal is already a dual course and distance winner, notwithstanding a victory having been posted under soft conditions on one of those occasions.  Just as Roger Varian potentially offered the only danger in the first event on that card, Roger will have expectations of another silver medal (at least) having declared his Olden Times filly SAVAANAH, the sire having won on his second start on soft ground which makes for interesting reading.

Favourite factor: This Conditions event is a new race on the Goodwood card.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/3—Billesdon Brook (good & soft)

 

3.10: But for a break of three and a half months from the track and taking a step up on trip, ME TOO NEGASAKI would look an outstanding bet for a number of reasons from my viewpoint.  That said, I still believe that Jeremy Noseda’s Iffraaj colt will win, with Jeremy having dominated this corresponding meeting in recent years, his five winners all having been well backed.  James Doyle rides the heavy ground winner, looking for his third winner for the trainer via just seven mounts this term. Jeremy held two entries at the meeting at the weekend though now, ME TOO NAGASAKI is his only runner. Red Clubs has long since been one of my favourite (underrated) sires and his death as a seven-year-old came as an almighty shock.  His son MR RED CLUBS won his only race to date here at Goodwood, whilst he handles cut well enough to suggest that his quote of 16/1 also attracts the eye this morning.  Henry Candy’s course stats this year read well (see the full list towards the foot of the column), whereby TURNPIKE TRIP is marginally preferred to Road To Dubai in completing my trio against the rest of the field.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Goodwood programme.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

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1/3—Mr Red Clubs (good)

2/4—Road To Dubai (good firm & good to soft)

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen renewals (including six of the last ten) of this Listed event without being represented every year.  Saeed Bin Suroor saddled the only vintage representative (PROMISING RUN) in the field this time around, having secured three of the last seven renewals whilst additionally snaring a silver medal with a 16/1 chance during the period.  ‘Bess’ is another Billesdon raider with a chance on the card and hailing from Manduro stock on the damns side, it came as no surprise when she started winning races for fun over this trip.  MONARCHS GLEN was singled out as a horse to watch by trainer John Gosden before his career had started and though John’s Frankel gelding has not won as many races to date as connections would have liked, his best form would take him close in this grade/company I’ll wager.  For the record, MONARCHS GLEN was ‘short headed’ in the opening race on this corresponding card twelvemonths ago.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last seventeen favourites have prevailed, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eighteen years was returned at just 10/1 (six years ago).

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—What About Carlo (good)

1/3—Monarchs Glen (god)

1/1—Billesdon Bess (soft)

 

4.20: GRACELAND lost out by the minimum margin in this event last year and with each way (bet to nothing) odds of 5/1 available with a few leading firms at the time of writing (Ladbrokes, Hills & Coral), there are worse win and place calls on the card.  That said, two other each way types catch the eye, namely NOTICE and ST MARY’S in a fascination second renewal.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite missed out on a Placepot position by finishing third in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

4.50: Eight of the ten winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, statistics which bring in the likes of course winner ISLAND CLOUD, ABIENTO and OCEAN TEMPTRESS into the equation.  For the record the trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last ten renewals though be warned, because two of the last four gold medallists have scored at 33/1 & 20/1.  Eight of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Island Cloud (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Goodwood card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Andrew Balding (4/37 – loss of 2 points)

3—Richard Hannon (5/56 – loss of 19 points)

3—Mark Johnston (6/46 +7)

2—Henry Candy (5/15 +10)

2—Richard Hughes (2/22 – loss of 11 points)

2—Alan King (2/7 – slight profit)

2—John Mackie (No previous runners here this season)

2—John Ryan (0/5)

2—David Simcock (6/29 +41)

2—Roger Varian (3/19 +1)

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

60 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Redcar: £48.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Perth: £1,055.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £5.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th September

YARMOUTH – SEPTEMBER 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £137.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unpalced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Yarmouth: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Mutaaqeb), 1 (Mashaheer) & 5 (Rule Of Honour)

Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Noble Manners) & 1 (Simpson)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (High End) & 3 (Intellect)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Fortria), 8 (Sexy Secret), 6 (Magic Beans) & 10 (Mungo Madness)

Leg 5 (4.10): 8 (One Master) & 4 (Perfect Sense)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (North Creek), 3 (Quatrieme Ami) & 7 (Ocean Temptress)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: The first thing I must mention having looked at the overnight exchanges is that Mandarin Princess is coming in for a little support at 50/1 as well as exchange activity though at present, we are talking small liquidities.  More obvious winners in the line up include the Invincible Spirit newcomer MUTAAQEB from the Owen Burrows yard and MASHAHEER.  Money for RULE OF HONOUR would be worth heeding in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to start proceedings at Yarmouth.

 

2.35: Mark Johnston is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this Nursery event during the last decade and as a winner in this grade at Newmarket in July, NOBLE MANNERS is the first name on the team sheet.  The general quote of 7/1 about Mark’s (good to soft winner) Myboycharlie filly makes plenty of each way appeal, albeit this is a ‘short field’ event.  Ed Walker’s raider SIMPSON will also find the ground a little softer than is ideal for the Dragon Pulse gelding though that said, this pair should get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  The reserve nomination is awarded to LUCIFUGOUS. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last seven contests during which time, five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second race on the card:

1/1—Midnight Wilde (good to firm)

 

3.05: HIGH END had drifted a little overnight but not enough for us to become alarmed, particularly as far as his Placepot prospects are concerned.  Saeed Bin Suroor’s unbeaten Dubawi representative has to be included in the mix, albeit in an interesting race which probably means that this will be another event on the card where my ‘powder remain dry’ in terms of considering a bet from a win perspective.  There will be worse ‘outsiders’ on the card than ZACK MAYO I’ll wager, though INTELLECT is considered as the rival that HIGH END has to beat in order for his 100% record to remain intact.

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Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick having won three of the five renewals to date.  The last five market leaders have all finished in the frame following the complete demise of the inaugural 10/11 favourite back in 2012.

 

3.40: This is practically a ‘seller’ in all but name and one of the few things about the race which catches the eye is that SDS is given the leg up aboard a Dean Ivory raider (FORTRIA) for only the third time according to my figures.  SEXY SECRET, MAGIC BEANS and MUNGO MADNESS are added into the equation, hoping that this is the race on the card that will propel the potential Placepot dividend into orbit.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Yarmouth programme.

1/10—Sexy Secret (good to firm)

 

4.10: William Haggas won this race with his previous runner in the race (winning favourite two years ago) whereby I’m latching on to his Fastnet Rock filly ONE MASTER who overcame problems to finish a fine third in a much better race at Doncaster on debut last month.  Too many ‘good things’ have come unstuck down the years in terms of expecting juveniles to win after just one race in which they have shown promise, whereby I will simply expect Ryan Moore to steer the market leader home, chiefly at the expense of PERFECT SENSE.  Saeed’s raider is (potentially) asked to give the filly just two pounds thanks to a jockey claim which could make the race interesting at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have won with all four market leaders having finished in the frame.  The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, stats which have produced four successful favourites.

 

4.45: Without an edge via previous renewals to work with, I am guided (as much as anything else) by three each way types who have attracted money overnight, namely NORTH CREEK, QUATRIEME AMI and OCEAN TEMPTRESS.  If you are content to eliminate one or two of the runners I have included in the fourth race on the card, you might want to add soft ground course winner ROBBIAN into the mix here.  Chris Wall (NORTH STREET) is (respectfully) not a name which is banded about too often is terms of headlines in the sport, but it’s worth reporting that this much underrated trainer has saddled no less than 74 winners at Yarmouth down the years, nearly forty winners more than his best other turf track ratios at Windsor and Newmarket (July course). Not only are his horses here always worth a second glance but equally, it often pays to look out for his representatives that have been sent to another course when Yarmouth stages fixtures.  For the record, Chris sends two horses on the long journey to Newcastle tonight.  A minimum stake patent has been invested by yours truly. If either of those ‘away runners’ are successful tonight, keep an eye on the runners away from Yarmouth on Wednesday and Thursday.  Chris has one in at Sandown tomorrow and two potential runners elsewhere on Thursday.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third of the new races on the Yarmouth card.

1/2—Robbian (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Yarmouth card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3—Phil McBride (2/17 – loss of 3 points)

3—John Ryan (3/21 – loss of 9 points)

2—Roger Charlton (1/1 +1)

2—Christine Dunnet (0/22)

2—Chris Dwyer (4/21 – loss of 2 points)

2—Robert Eddery (2/8 +2)

2—William Haggas (5/25 +1)

2—Dean Ivory (2/21 – loss of 11 points)

2—John Jenkins (0/24)

2—Mark Johnston (1/11 – loss of 3 points)

2—Laura Mongan (No previous runners)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (4/8 – slight profit)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £165.80 – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Redcar: £21.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new fixture on the calendar