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Racing Insights, 15th October 2021

The Horses for Courses (H4C) report is Friday's free offering, showing the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

And here's what my H4C settings have generated for Friday...

We also have our selection of daily free races, of course, and they are set to be...

  • 2.30 Uttoxeter
  • 2.40 Redcar
  • 3.15 Redcar
  • 3.50 Redcar
  • 4.50 Uttoxeter
  • 5.45 Dundalk

And I'm going to consider the first of the three Flat races offered, the 2.40 Redcar, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Flat handicap over 1m6f. The prize is £4,482 and we're expecting Good to Soft ground that is good in places. I don't think much rain is forecast, so it should remain the quicker side of good to soft for this sextet...

None come here in sparking form, but Big Boy Bobby looks the pick on recent results  with four placed finishes on the bounce, whilst Glasses Up and/or Thai Terrier look weakest at this point. Both Mr Curioisity and Liberation Point drop down from Class 3 action last time around for this trappy contest of active runners, all seen in the last six weeks. The top four on the card are only separated by 3lbs in the eyes of the assessor.

Mr Curiosity bears top weight here and has been eased just a pound after a near six length defeat at this trip at Chester five weeks ago. He is down in class too, of course and whilst this son of Frankel is still relatively unexposed after just five starts, he'll need to up his game to win here.

Glasses Up, on the other hand, has raced 44 times in 40 months, winning seven times. His last win was at Musselburgh in July off a mark of 81 and he has come close off 84 and today's 85 in recent outings. A 2.5 length defeat LTO suggests more is needed off this mark and he'd probably need it to dry up some more.

Liberation Point was sixth on debut in December 2019 and has only raced four times since. Finishes of 212 showed he has some ability, but flopped at Leicester on heavy ground last time out. He should find this surface more to his liking and with first time cheekpieces, he could go well, assuming he stays the trip which is a half mile further than he has tried before.

Thai Terrier won over 2m1f at Carlisle at the end of May and although beaten in four efforts at 1m6f/2m since, has raced well in those contests, going down by an average of less than four lengths per race. A confirmed front runner, much will depend on whether he is able to impose himself from early in the piece. Chances, though.

Arctic Fox hasn't won in 13 attempts since landing a hat-trick in the summer of 2019, culminating in a win over 1m4f off a mark 7lbs higher than today. She was only narrowly beaten at Haydock last month, but was beaten and is still up a pound for that effort. She's better over shorter/quicker, but has won at higher levels than this.

Big Boy Bobby looks the form horse here and gets weight from all his rivals today. He has finished third at both classes 3 and 4 in his last two outings. Jockey Trevor Whelan rides him for the first time and based upon the Trainer/Jockey stats, that's a positive move for me. Ground and trip are unknowns here, but he's running as well if not better than his rivals here.

A look at relevant form under similar conditions via instant Expert doesn't yield much in terms of wins...

...but Glasses Up's 4 from 16 at this level is more than useful. His sole run here at Redcar is the field's entire input and he's actually at this trip. Thai Terrier hasn't fared as well at Class 4, but has made the frame twice, as seen in the place stats...

...where Glasses Up's Class 4 record really stands out now. The rest have such small sample sizes, it's difficult to draw a conclusion and unfortunately when we consider draw and pace, we're once again feeding off scraps.

Draw stats...

...would seem to suit stalls 1 & 2 ie Thai Terrier and Big Boy Bobby.

As for the pace analysis...

...hold up horses have struggled, but the other three styles have all done well enough with leaders coming out on top. This is how our field have run in their last four outings...

and I'm going to place them on the pace draw heat map to help assess their chances here.

Not many seem ideally placed, if truth be told. You might have spotted Mr Curiosity duplicated, he either runs prominently or is held up and I'm not sure either will help, whilst I've omitted Thai Terrier, as I've not a clue how he might after a sequence of styles reading 4123! Big Boy Bobby seems the obvious pick from that.

Summary

As this point, I should be advising you to cross this race off your list and move to the next, which is what I'd be doing if I wasn't writing the piece. That said, Racing Insights is NOT a tipping piece, so my conclusion here is that I won't be having a bet on it and that's totally acceptable. Never try to force a bet if you don't think there's one there.

If, however, I was doing a placepot or other multi-bet ticket, then it'd be Big Boy Bobby for me, he's the form horse, he gets weight all round and has the best pace/draw make-up in the race. There's no natural pace-setter here so it might be falsely run, another reason why I'd leave it alone and I'm not surprised to see my pick as one of three 3/1 co-favourites, even the market can't make a decision here!

Good Luck!

Chris

PS Liberation Point at 6/1 was the most interesting of the longer-priced runners for me.

 

 

Racing Insights, 2nd October 2021

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats Report (TJC), which brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report and has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column. As with all our reports/features, a full explanation is provided in the User Guide.

As ever, we also have a list of free races to complement the feature of the day and for Saturday, those races will be...

  • 1.25 Killarney
  • 2.35 Killarney
  • 3.35 Redcar
  • 4.10 Redcar
  • 4.45 Redcar
  • 5.50 Redcar

The parameters I set for my TJC report are fairly stringent...

...and only provided me with one UK possible, so today's piece will revert back to the free list, where the Redcar card has a couple of Listed contests. The 3.35 doesn't really float my boat (fifteen 2yo runners? No thanks), so I'll back out of that and tackle the 4.10 Redcar instead. It's a 7-runner (8 would have been nice for E/W purposes), Listed race for any aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 7f on good ground and one of these will trot away with not far shy of £27k...

Azano is the only one without a win in his last six outings and he's also the only class mover here, stepping up two levels which will be tough. All seven have raced at least once in the last 3 to 7 weeks with none turned back out really quickly. None of them won last time out, so technically all would have something to find in a race which if it was a handicap, Motakhayyel would be at least 7lbs well in with Azano the worst off.

Oh This Is Us was in fine form (29141) earlier in the season, but last of ten, 8th of 9 and 4th of 6 in his last three outings suggests he's had his best spell for this year already and although his yard do well here and his jockey is in good form, he has failed to make the frame in all three good ground 7f runs over the last two years.

Safe Voyage hasn't quite hit the heights of 2020, when he landed back to back Group 2 races and his bare form of making the frame just once in five runs this season doesn't look good, but the place was actually a win in a Listed race and the other four efforts were in Group 2/3 company. Trip is ideal for him, he'll be fine on good ground (he'd prefer softer, of course) and back down in Listed company, must have every chance here.

Azano has a solitary win (C4 Novice) from fifteen starts so far and is winless in thirteen since scoring at Yarmouth almost three years ago. His recent form of a runner-up finish and a third place flatter to deceive as they were both 3-runner, Class 3 contests an he's likely to be out of his depth here.

Motakhayyel is a more than useful type, but has yet to transfer his good Class 2 handicap form (1611016) into anything meaningful at Class 1, apart from a very good run to finish 2nd of 9 in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes in June. His last two runs have seen him 6th of 19 in a Class 2 handicap and most recently 8th of 10 in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes. He clearly has the ability to take this, but I wonder if he's not just about done for the season already?

Bullace is a lightly-raced (7 starts) 3 yr old who started out 2111 in his first four outings followed by a third place, just beaten by a length in a Listed race at Sandown back in May. Just two runs since have seen him 11th of 13 at Gr 1 and 6th of 7 in another Sandown Listed contest and perhaps he's gone off the boil at the wrong time.

Rhoscolyn, on the other hand has been a far busier 3yo with 17 races in the tank already including 10 this season that have seen him land 3 wins and 4 further places. Like some of the others above, his season has petered out a little since finishing 2111 earlier in the season but has managed to keep it together enough to only be beaten by less than 4 lengths at Gr 3 and by less than 3 lengths in a Listed race in his last two efforts. A similar run here puts him in the mix, although he'd be somewhat of a surprise winner.

Glesga Girl is the only filly in the race and carries just 8st7lbs, but that still only puts her better off than two runners at the weights, based on handicap marks. Her form on the A/W reads 211, but she's 0 from 7 on turf and although 3rd of 10 and 3rd of 12 in a pair of Listed races in July and August and a decent effort to get within 4 lengths of the winner in a Gr 3 last time out, she has work to do here. I don't see her winning, but she'll run her race and won't be humiliated here. Mid-div, I suspect.

Instant Expert gives us race specific relevant form and pretty much speaks for itself...

...where Safe Voyage catches the eye. Those are win percentages above, but he has made the frame in 50% of his good ground runs, 60% of Class 1's and 58% of 7f contests. His place stats are terrific and here they are in comparison with his rivals...

Not many of them have done well at this level, but all should be suited by the trip and Azano looks the weakest again.

The initial draw stats suggest higher is better here...

...which would count against the likes of Oh This Is Us and Rhoscolyn, plus Bullace possibly with those drawn highest making the frame most often, but actual stall draw stats suggest that Safe Voyage in box number 5 is best drawn of all...

...although the above doesn't really suggest a huge draw bias to me, so race tactics aka pace might well be the decider and the stats tell me that...

...hold-up horses fare really badly, but all of the other three running styles can win readily enough. Off a small sample size, those waited with in mid-division have done very well, but leaders have tended to hang on for place money most often.

This field have raced as follows in their last four runs...

...with Oh This Is Us being held-up in his last two. That allied with a poor draw in stall 1 isn't going to hep his chances. In fact only Rhoscolyn, Safe Voyage and Azano haven't been held up in any of their last four.

We can marry the pace and draw stats together to produce the composite heat map showing what we think would be the best combinations, but because there's not a massive draw or pace bias, other than not wanting to be drawn too low and/or be held-up...

...all seem to be in with a shout. Azano looks set to take it on from stall 6 which should give the one next door, Safe Voyage, a good tow into the race.

Often in these races, when there's no discernible bias at neither pace nor draw, we have to lean heavier on the relevant form (Instant Expert), overall form (the horse overview) and that unquantifiable gut feeling.

Summary

I expect Azano to set the pace, but he's out of his depth here and will probably wilt under the pressure. he'll probably give Safe Voyage a good tow into the race and if he can put daylight between himself and the field, he might be tough to catch. Motakhayyel is the other side of Azano and widest of all, so will have the best view of what is going on and having led three starts ago, might decide to race more prominently here and get involved earlier.

Based on those assumptions and everything above, I'd have Safe Voyage as my winner ahead of Motakhayyel. The market has them the other way around and mine are currently priced at 7/2 and 6/4.

7/2 looks a fair price for Safe Voyage so I'm on.

For those needing a third horse for tricast/trifecta (only 2 places for E/W punters), the 5/1 Rhoscolyn could go well down in trip and on easier ground.

 

Racing Insights, 12th April 2021

For Saturday's race, I said..."I think Requited (7/1), Oh So  Nice (10/1) and Lethal Blast (9/1) are all pretty close to each other"... and indeed they were only 2 lengths apart. Sadly they finished 5th, 6th and 7th and the nearest I got to calling it right was a good run from Lady Florence to finish second after being drawn widest of all.

Ah, well, that's the nature of sticking your neck out daily, I suppose, but no time to dwell on it as Monday is approaching. The PACE tab is available to everyone for all races, including our featured free races, which are...

  • 1.00 Huntingdon
  • 1.50 Redcar
  • 3.20 Redcar
  • 4.00 Huntingdon

The second of the two Flat races above is probably the best of the four free races and although it's highly likely there'll be a pretty warm favourite, (a) he might not win and (b) we might find a nicely-priced E/W bet to chase the fav home. So Monday's race in focus is the 3.20 Redcar, an 11-runner, Class 3 Flat handicap for 4yo+ runners on Good ground, that will be firmer in places. The top prize is £6,210 and it will go to one of these...

All bar two have a win in their last five starts, we have plenty of class movers (3 droppers and 4 risers), all bar two have had a run in the last six weeks and we've one handicap debutant.

Hayadh bears top weight and has won two of his last seven in a career that has seen him win seven times at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs, including six on ground varying from good to soft through to good to firm. Can be excused for finishing 6th LTO in this grade as it came after a 173-day break and he only went down by 3.75 lengths.

Dawalaleeb had a good winter on the A/W and has won 5 of 10 starts away from turf. He's a former course and distance winner, who was only beaten by a nose the last time he came here (also over C&D) back in September. He returned to the turf with a very creditable run in the Class 2 Spring Mile at Doncaster where he was beaten by just over 4 lengths and now drops in both class and weight to run here.

Zhui Feng won on his debut for his new yard in February and was only beaten by less than two lengths next/last time out. He's probably better suited by a return to turf and could well make the frame if things fall his way.

Kettle Hill is the likely odds-on favourite and after finishing just 5th of 8 (beaten by over 10L) on debut at Wolverhampton at the end of last June, he has won both his races since, albeit some 8 months apart. Both were over 8.5f as he landed a Class 5 maiden at Windsor by half a length and then a Class 5 Novice race at Wolverhampton by three lengths four weeks ago. The 2nd and the 7th from that race have won again at Class 4/5, but the 4th and 5th have both been beaten at Class 5. And the second's win was a Class 5 handicap off a mark of 70, so Kettle Hill might not have it all his own way here off 85.

He makes a handicap debut today and although his yard are 57 from 282 (20.2% SR) with Flat handicap debutants since 2015, those figures generate a loss at SP of over 13% and the A/E on those runs is just 0.84.

Global Spirit has a big chance here, if ready to go first up after a break of 168 days. He had two wins and three places from seven on turf last season and was only beaten by less than four lengths at this class/grade/mark last time out. He'd clearly need to improve to win and you are always taking fitness on trust after a break, but on pure ability, he could make the frame.

Brother McGonagall is the first of four in the race that I don't want to even think about backing. He was 9th of 10 last time out, beaten by almost 12 lengths in a Class 4 handicap some 262 days ago and that race came after a 289-day absence, so purely based on that last run and the fact that he has only raced once in the last eighteen months, it's a no from me.

Home Before Dusk would be in my calculations if this was an all-weather contest where he has a 26% strike rate in handicaps, but he's actually 0 from 14 on turf. This, of course, will be easier than the Class 2 Spring Cup he contested last time out where he was more than 11 lengths behind Dawaaleeb, but even though he's 5lb better off for the "re-match", I don't think he can reverse the placings.

Give It Some Teddy is a Jekyll & Hyde character and is totally unreliable, making him my second "unbackable" here. Don't get me wrong, he's got ability, as he won here over C&D at Class 2 off a pound higher back in October 2019, but since that day his story reads...293 days off / 11th of 11 at Class 4 / 4th of 15 at Class 4 / 10th of 10 at Class 3 / 137 days off and then 8th of 8 in a Class 4 last time out. Not for me, I'm afraid.

Defence Treaty has also been unreliable in the past and has a shaky record of just 1 win and 4 places from 16 on the Flat, but should come here with some hope after seeming to be reinvigorated by a winter on the A/W at Southwell and Newcastle, showing his versatility for underfoot conditions whilst winning twice and finishing as a runner-up twice in seven starts. Up in class, but off the same mark here and has an outside chance of the frame if translating his winter form to the Turf.

Jewel Maker is just 1 from 21 on the Flat and although his form figures over the winter on the all-weather look impressive at 2314413, the two wins were at Class 6 (by 2.5L) and then by a head in a Class 5. This race is much tougher and he was beaten by more than 8 lengths off this mark in a Class 4 last time out. He was admittedly 2nd over C&D here on his last turf run, but that was also a Class 6 contest and he carries 20lbs more here. He's my third unbackable.

Motawaafeq makes up the field and pretty much just helps to make up the numbers here as my final stage 1 reject. His only saving grace is that he's getting weight (plenty in some cases) from the rest of the runners, but comes here having finished 19th of 20 in that afore-mentioned Spring Mile, more than 27 lengths off the pace and whilst he's down a class, he has only been dropped a pound by the assessor. That was his sixth run on turf and when you consider the previous results were 2nd of 4, 6th of 9, 6th of 16, 4th of 11 and 6th of 11 at Classes 4 and 5, you see why he's not for me today.

So, at this point, I'm discarding Brother McGonagall, Give It Some Teddy, Jewel Maker and Motawaafeq ahead of assessing race suitability via Instant Expert. As I'm looking for a decent priced placer as well as the winner, I'm going to consider both win and place records in past Flat handicaps..

Not a lot to write home about from a win perspective, but my notes would be that Hayadh gets the ground,  Zhui Feng's rating is interesting at 20lbs lower than his last Turf win, Kettle Hill is on handicap debut, hence no figures, but his yard haven't excelled at HC1, Home Before Dusk is, of course, winless on turf and Defence Treaty might be carrying too much weight.

From a place perspective for E/W betting...

...they all look better than the win graphic bar Home Before Dusk, whose figures are still unappealing. The first three all look like solid placers, but it's Global Spirit that catches the eye if primed to fire first up.

Pace...

Not many have tried to take it on from the get go, but those who have tried, have been rewarded with a couple of wins, but have generally failed to cling on to a place once caught. From a place perspective, hold up horses have fared best and across the board, I'd say mid-division was the worst running style to have in a contest like this.

Draw...

Here, the extremes seem to have it from a win perspective and although stalls 4 to 6 have picked up 10 of the 36 available places, I'd suggest that berths 4 to 8 wouldn't be ideal for our runners today.

Pace & Draw...

Based on the above individual pace / draw stats, the huge swathe of red through the middle draw won't be a surprise, but what might not have been expected is the fact that mid-drawn leaders have had the most success followed by low-drawn mid-division runners.

And now based on their most recent runs, here's how we think this race might unfold using the pace and draw stats...

Brother McGonagall and Home Before Dusk look to have the best pace/draw make-up here, but I don't see either of them going on to make the frame never mind winning. I had seven runners in my mind after completing the write-ups and then five after the Instant Expert analysis and they were Defence Treaty, Dawaaleeb, Global Spirit, Kettle Hill and Zhui Feng and although the above pace/draw heat map also makes a case for Hayadh and Home Before Dusk, I think I've already found enough negatives against them.

Summary

We've taken eleven down to less than half, but I can't go with five against the field, so let's start at the obvious starting point : Kettle Hill. Only Hills had a price up at 5.40pm and this horse was 11/10. That's a really short price for a horse I don't think is too well treated off 85, runners from his past races haven't set the world on fire and his yard are just OK with handicap debutants. He could be a great horse, but he could be nothing. Bottom line for me is that there are too many unanswered questions to back him at 11/10.

Next up is Defence Treaty, who looks set to be up with the pace which is a tactic that not only hasn't really panned out for him in the past, it's also one that regularly fails in this type of contest from a high draw. Add in his dismal record on turf and he's now gone.

This leaves me with Dawaleeb, Global Spirit and Zhui Feng to consider. Dawaaleeb has ticked boxes everywhere we've looked and his pace/draw make-up isn't dreadful. I fancy him to lead early, see off Defence treaty and attempt to hold on. He ran really well for a long way in that Spring Mile and he's the biggest threat to the favourite for me and you can get 7's about him. He'd be the winner from that trio for me, if the fav doesn't fire as the market expects.

Global Spirit might end up running on fumes or from memory late on, but if ready to go first up, has excellent credentials at 14/1 E/W. Zhui Feng is too short for me at 13/2 and isn't drawn well for his running style.

So, I like Dawaleeb & Global Spirit here and the fav will no doubt be involved somewhere along the line!

Racing Insights, 3rd November 2020

Tuesday's free feature is the simple but effective Shortlist report, whilst the daily free races are...

  • 1.25 Exeter
  • 2.33 Southwell
  • 2.55 Exeter
  • 3.45 Fairyhouse
  • 7.45 Newcastle

And I'm going to take a look at the Shortlist report to see if we can spot a winner for tomorrow from the following...

I'm going to assess three from the above and it makes sense to look at the 6.45 Newcastle race with two qualifiers and then I'll focus on the 3.10 Redcar for a bit of variety...

Twisted Dreams and Island Storm are numbers 8 and 9 on the racecard, as they are the bottom two in the weights. Island Storm comes here in the best form having finished 211 in his last three contests, all here on this track including wins over 7f at Class 6 and then a Class 5 course and distance success here last time out.  Island Storm, on the other hand, was also a class, course and distance winner here this time last year, but has failed to beat a rival since, finishing 6th, 6th and 10th, albeit in a higher grade over longer trips.

On the green trainer/jockey icons, Island Storm clearly holds the upper hand thanks to the yard's recent form and overall course success, but jockey Paul Mulrennan aboard twisted Dreams is in good nick right now.

Instant Expert essentially puts the shortlist information into numbers...

and the obvious areas for discussion are Island Storm's 0 from 3 in fields of 8-11 runners and Twisted Dream's 1 from 4 at Class 5. In isolation, they're not good numbers, but the latter is 1 from 3 in the lower value (sub £3500) Class 5 contests and the former is 2 from 2 in 6/7 runner contests, whilst the Official ratings show Island Storm running off a mark 4lbs lower than his last win (and also his last run), whilst Twisted Dreams is up 6lbs for that LTO win, but at a Geegeez Speed rating of 62, he is top of the shop here today.

The pace/draw heat map for this type of contest isn't massively conclusive...

...but a high draw is definitely a positive here, but our pair are drawn centrally in stalls 4 and 5, but I suppose as long as they're not mid-division type horses, they'll not be out of it, so let's see...

...which suggests they'll both be keen to get on with it. Of the two, I have to prefer Twisted Dreams, as he looks to be progressing nicely, whilst Island Storm's lack of a win the last year is a serious worry. TD is of course up 6lbs, but looked like he had something in reserve. Incidentally, the third placed horse has already reappeared to over course and distance at a higher grade, whilst the runner-up reopposes here.

I'll decide how to play this shortly when I look at the market, but first I was to consider Finoah's chance in the 3.10 Redcar, which looks like...

The SR (Geegeez Speed Rating) of 69 is top rank in this field and the horse comes here on the back of a win last time out when he landed a class, course and distance soft-ground seller eight days ago, so conditions look ideal here. He was the best part of six lengths clear that day and has at least 4lbs in hand on all his rivals based on his OR of 82. Trainer Tom Dascombe and jockey Richard Kingscote have good individual records here at Redcar and I think everyone already knows that they're a formidable team together.

Instant Expert speaks for itself...

...and the field criteria is possibly the least important there. He has won three times in 8/9 runner fields and 7 is an arbitrary cut off point in my opinion. Form, going, class, course and distance all carry more weight for me, as often does the pace/draw angles...

He doesn't necessarily have the perfect draw for his running style here, but with the obvious exception of Twpsyn in stall 1, there aren't many in the ideal place on the heatmap.

That aside, he looks a real contender here, especially as from his reasonable 4 from 24 on the Flat, he is 4/19 in a visor, 4/8 on soft/heavy, 2/3 here at Redcar, 1/1 over this trip and 1/1 over course and distance. He is also 4 from 7 on soft/heavy in a visor, as he was when winning here last time out at odds of 4/9 and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go off that short again.

Summary

From the two in Newcastle race, my preference is for Twisted Dreams and although I expect traveller to run him close again (as might Rum Runner), I think bet 365's 4/1 pricetag is more than fair, so I'd be happy with a nibble at that. Island Storm isn't fancied at all, yet has the ability to get involved at a huge (currently 25/1) price, but he won't be carrying any of my money this time around, as I'm unconvinced he's as good as he was last year.

As for Finoah, here's a shock for you, I rarely back odds on shots and even more rarely do I advise others to back them, but at 4/5 there might actually be some value about him, I was expecting much shorter and I expect him to win.

Racing Insights, 26th October 2020

I liked Indian Pursuit's chances at 3/1 on Saturday and got some value with him going off at 9/4. As expected, Rocketeer set off quickly and our boy overhauled him as planned and all was going well until a 16/1 shot finished best of all, beating us by a neck. As for the second runner, Mr Wagyu, the cards and associated data said he was a no-hoper and so it proved as he finished 9th of 10 at 20/1.

Monday heralds the start of a new week for Racing Insights and the free feature of the day is access to the Pace tab for ALL races, whilst the free racecards cover...

  • 12.40 Redcar
  • 1.15 Redcar
  • 2.30 Galway
  • 3.10 Leicester
  • 3.55 Newcastle
  • 4.15 Galway

And the one I'm going to look at is the 1.15 Redcar, a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over a mile with the winner receiving £7763 and we start with the racecard sorted into Geegeez Speed rating order...

As you can see, Young Fire, Al Erayg and Stone Soldier head the rankings, whilst we should note the good recent form (14, 30) of James Fanshawe's runners (Turn on the Charm) and also jockey Ella McCain (Al Erayg) with her useful 7lb claim. Track-wise, trainer Mark Johnston (Striding Edge) looks to do well here (C5), whilst trainer James Given (Stone Soldier) and jockey Tony Hamilton (Memory Dream) haven't fared too well here of late (C5 and C1 respectively).

The draw data is fairly inconclusive with no real apparent bias on show for this type of contest, so no positives nor negatives here, as shown below...

...so with the draw alone not providing any clues and the pace tab being the free daily feature, we really should consider how the two marry together...

...obviously we have no data for the UK debutant Memory Dream, but the heat map suggests Poet's Dawn will lead, but that's not usually a good tactic here. Not many seem to have the ideal pace/draw matchup, but Crownthorpe and Turn on the Charm seem to be best suited, whilst I wouldn't be too put off by the way Al Erayg, Striding Edge or Stone Soldier look either.

So, we've got some names being mentioned several times already, but not there's not enough in the above for me to make a decision, so let's have a look at each runner in turn to see if there's anything of note in their past performances, so in alphabetical order...

Al Erayg : Only 1 win in 25 on the Flat and that's not inspiring, but that win was here at Redcar over course and distance on soft ground, wearing cheekpieces and a tongue tie in a 16-runner handicap just two starts and 23 days ago.

Only beaten by 4 lengths in a soft ground Class 2 contest last time out and conditions will be very similar here today, as he takes a drop in class and the booking of an in-from (has won her last three) 7lb claimer is another positive.

Crownthorpe : At the end of last season, his figures said he had two wins and two places from five runs on soft ground, he had three wins at this trip and two wins at this grade.

Based on the above he'd be a real contender, but he has looked really out of sorts this campaign, making the frame just once in four attempts and although a drop in class should help him, it's hard to justify putting any money down.

Global Spirit : Has had a really good season with two wins and two places from seven starts, the latest being a career best effort to land a 16-runner affair on soft ground at York seventeen days ago.

He's up in both class and trip today and with a 5lb hike in weights on top of that, I'd say this should be beyond him from a win perspective at least, although he does go best under today's jockey, Ben Curtis, as they have 4 wins and 3 places from 10 races together.

Memory Dream : No UK form to discuss and a first start for trainer Ivan Furtado and hasn't had an outing for four months since finishing last of nine in a listed contest.

He was two from six in France, winning on soft and very soft over 7.5f, so conditions shouldn't be too far beyond him, but a mark of 97 looks excessive.

Poet's Dawn : Will probably attempt to win this from the front, a tactic that doesn't usually work in this type of race and although he did win a Class 3 handicap over 1m2f on soft ground at Ripon in August adopting the same tactics, he has been disappointing on two runs since off marks of 83 and 84.

Still rated 83, I think the handicapper has him held here and when you consider that he's 0/5 here at Redcar, 0/11 over a mile and 0/11 under today's jockey, you'd have to fancy others before him.

Stone Soldier : An A/W winner two starts ago, but is only 1/10 on the Flat and was well beaten last time out finishing 11 lengths behind the re-opposing Al Erayg over course and distance here.

He has won on soft ground previously and has also won under today's jockey. As Al Erayg is now ridden by a 7lb claimer, Stone Soldier is now even worse off at the weights, which means he's even less likely to overturn the 11 length deficit.

Striding Edge : Useful but inconsistent/unreliable type. Has won three times and placed twice from ten starts this season, but has finished 11th of 11, 13th of 13, 1st of 7 and 8th of 9 in his last four starts, which backs up the useful but unreliable tag.

In his defence, he is 1 from 1 at Class 3 on turf and has two wins and a place from four starts at this trip, but has never run on anything softer than good ground, is 0/3 under Franny Norton. He could win this at a big price, but is equally or more likely to come home stone last!

Turn On The Charm : Likely to be very popular, comes here in good form, has a top jockey on board and the Geegeez racecards suggest a good run.

Back to back wins (C4, 1m & C3, 8.5f) off marks of 77 and 82 send him here seeking a hat-trick, but he's raised another 6lbs here and has never encountered soft ground before. Major player if he handles the extra weight and the soft ground.

Young Fire : Speedy sort (top of our ratings) who was only beaten by less than four lengths over 6f in the Class 2 Ayr Gold Cup. Prior to that he had landed a Class 3 soft ground handicap at Haydock, whilst last time out, he was within three lengths of the winner in a Class 2 1m contest at York on soft.

This is a drop in both class and competitiveness and a similar effort to that York run would put him right in the mix here. He has two wins and place from five on soft ground and a similar record under today's jockey, but a 0/7 record at 7.5f-1m is an obvious black mark, as is the burden of top weight.

Summary

Turn on the Charm looks amongst the likely contenders here but at a price of 6/4 (Sunday 6.20pm), I can't back him : I can't see how the market rates him that much more likely to win than the others especially off such a high mark and on a soft ground debut.

So, the two I do like here are Al Arayg and Young Fire. Al Arayg looks long at 12/1 to me, based on what I've written above. I expected around 8/1 to 10/1, so he's a positive here, even from an E/W perspective.

Young Fire was 2.5 lengths ahead of him last time out and provided he doesn't leave his charge for the line too late, he should be a solid 5/1 pick here.

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

1.40 Fontwell : Compadre @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 5/1 (Always towards rear, never on terms) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this shortly, of course...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding with 2 wins and a place from four runs since racing resumed in June all at Class 6 and under today's jockey Kevin Stott. The first of those runs/wins was his only previous visit to Redcar, so he has an unbeaten record to protect here.

The racecard shows plenty of green icons denoting both trainer and jockey have been in decent form of late and both have good records at this venue, whilst my report show that that pair have fared well together over the last year.

And I want to expand slightly upon the trainer/jockey record this morning before wrapping today's piece up, because since the start of 2018 the Midgley/Stott combo is 15 from 53 (28.3% SR) for 28.75pts (+54.2% ROI) in Flat handicaps at odds of 8/1 and shorter, including of note today...

  • 11/37 (29.7%) for 27.8pts (+75.1%) with horses rested for less than three weeks
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 26pts (+108.3%) with horses placed LTO
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 7.35pts (+35%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 6/15 (40%) for 7.6pts (+50.6%) at Class 6
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 5.64pts (+56.4%) in August...

...whilst in races worth less than £8k with horses placed LTO less than three weeks earlier, the pair are 6 from 16 (37.5% SR) for 12.84pts (+80.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG or bigger as was available at 8.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.