Tag Archive for: Redcar racecourse

Racing Insights, Monday 27/05/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.15 Huntingdon
  • 3.40 Leicester
  • 4.05 Cartmel
  • 4.35 Redcar
  • 5.55 Leicester

The highest-rated of those races above, the 4.35 Redcar, also has a good pace spread, so we're going to focus on this 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground, that will be heavy in places...

Maghlaak has made the frame in all six career starts, winning on three occasions and is the only LTO winner in this field. Alpha Crucis was third of eight at Goodwood under similar conditions to today, but none of the others even made the frame on their last outings. All bar Machete have won at least one of their last six races, though, with the top-weight French raider on a losing run of seven.

Arthur's Realm and Bystander both step up a class here and it's a day/race full of 'firsts' as it's the first...

  • race for David O'Meara, first in the UK and first handicap race anywhere for Machete
  • time in cheekpieces for Bill Silvers
  • fitting of a tongue-tie for To Catch a Thief
  • wearing of a visor by Stressfree

All those who ran in the UK last time out raced either 10 or 23 days ago, but Machete's last run in France for Fabrice Chappet was some eight months ago and it's not inconceivable that he might need the run. He's also one of four (along with Bill Silvers, Arthur's Realm & Alpha Crucis) yet to win at today's trip, whilst the field has no previous Redcar wins. That said only Bystander and Stressfree have raced here once each!

Half of the field have decent place form on soft ground, but unusually for French imports, that's not the case for Machete and seeing as he hasn't raced for eight months, has lost his last seven since a win fourteen months ago, has no win at the trip and doesn't appear to 'get' soft ground, I'm crossing his name off here.

Also based on place form, I'm doubtful about To Catch A Thief, Bill Silvers and especially Lord Protector, so that leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 10, so I should still be covered in the event of any draw bias! The in-form Maghlaak is also the main eyecatcher from Instant Expert above, but Qitaal's numbers are good as are those of bottom-weight Alpha Crucis.

I referred to a potential draw bias above, so I've checked past similar races and they say...

...and based on that data, I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias overall. The mid drawn 4 wins from 78 doesn't make a lot of sense when either side you have 10 wins and 9 wins, but I should point out that stall 1 alone has 6 wins and 2 further places from 23 runs, so that skews things a little and might be good news for Qitaal. The fact that there's not a great deal of difference in the place stats helps to bring me to the little/no bias conclusion, but I suspect that our feature of the day, PACE, will be of more help.

Here's how those 23 races above have been won...

...with prominent/leading runners clearly coming out on top, which based on this field's most recent efforts looks like even more good news for Qitaal...

Summary

The in-form Maghlaak and pace-setting Qitaal look like the most likely ones here and they were only a neck apart last time out. Qitaal is a pound better off here, but Maghlaak was running for the first time in almost a year, so both should technically go better here, which might result in another narrow defeat for Qitaal. I'm not sure how they'll finish, of course, but I suspect it will be tight again and Qitaal offers more value at 6/1* than Maghlaak at 7/2* , I suppose.

As for the final place, Bystander (9/2*) has to be considered from his pace profile, but I think Alpha Crucis might be the one, despite often being slow away. He was actually third behind Maghlaak and Qitaal 23 days ago, just 1.25 lengths off the pace and whilst Qitaal is a pound better off with Maghlaak here, Alpha Crucis is 2lbs better off with Qitaal, which could be interesting and at 13/2*, he's borderline E/W territory for me.

*odds taken from Bet365 & Hills at 5.00pm Sunday

Racing Insights, Monday 15/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.50 Windsor
  • 3.42 Redcar
  • 4.20 Windsor
  • 6.30 Kempton

from which, I'm going to look at the 3.42 Redcar, a Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft/heavy ground. It's my first foray into the 2024 Flat campaign, so fingers crossed as I go through this card...

The top two on the card, Noble Order and Look Back Smiling both won last out with the the latter now on a hat-trick, whilst the former has won two of his last three. Of the remainder, only Shaladar and Titian are winless in six, having been beaten in their last twelve and eleven races respectively.

Shaladar is denoted as being a fast finisher (clearly not fast enough!) and he does have the benefit of having raced in this grade last time out, as do Legend of Leros and Ron O with the other seven all moving one class. Noble Order steps up from a win at Class 4, but Look Back Smiling, Pisanello, Spirit Genie, Spirit Genie, Thunder Roar, Titian and Clear Angel all drop down from Class 2.

After breaks of 117, 152 and 185 days respectively, you could say that Legend of Leros, Shaladar and Pisanello might be in need of a run and Legend of Leros was gelded during his break and now sports a tongue tie for the first time.

Legend of Leros is also one of three runners (along with Spirit Genie and Thunder Roar) yet to win over this trip, whilst Ron O is the only previous Redcar (and counrse and distance) winner in the field...

There's not a lot to write home about from Instant Expert above, but Thunder Roar should appreciate the underfoot conditions and he does come here off the back of an excellent season-opener in the Spring Mile at Doncaster, where he was only half a length behind Look Back Smiling (and is a pound better off here). Pisanello has struggle to win Class 3 races on turf (1 from 9). Ron O loves the mile track here at Redcar, where he is 2 from 3, but his overall profile is erratic and unreliable.

A quick look at the place stats only really serves to put another cross by the name of Legend of Leros...

...so we'll move swiftly to the data we have on draw and today's feature, pace.

It's not the biggest sample size I've ever worked with, but the data from past races here at Redcar show that horses drawn lowest have fared best over straight races...

...and if we look at the pace profile of those races, we see that hold-up horses have struggled to win/place...

...but the other three running styles have gone well enough with those just in behind the leader(s) doing best of all. The combined pace/draw heat map goes on to suggest that low-drawn runners who race in mid-division are the ones to beat...

...closely followed by low-drawn prominence, low-drawn leaders and mid-drawn prominent runners.

We already know our draw...

...and we can look back on the field's last few races to make an educated guess as to how they'll run today...

...giving us this...

Summary

Titian, Noble Order, Legend of Leros and Thunder Roar look the most likely from our pace/draw heat map, but Titian was only 14th of 18 in the Spring Mile where Look Back smiling and Thunder Roar finished 1-2. I don't see him making up over 16 lengths on that pair today, so he's a no from me; as was Legend of Leros from an early stage of my analysis.

We didn't glean much from Instant Expert today, but we did learn that Thunder Roar should love the underfoot conditions, coming here with a soft/heavy record reading 213112. He's also in good nick with two wins and two places from his last four outings and an overall 70% place record on turf. He's a pound better off with his LTO victor, Look Back Smiling, today and that must give him a great shout here. Whether he reverses the placings is unclear, but either way, I suspect that this pair will both have to play second fiddle to Noble Order, who defied a 15-month absence to win cosily back in February.

That said, Noble Order's a bit shorter than I hoped he might be, so I'd probably suggest that E/W plays on Look Back Smiling and/or Thunder Roar would be the play today, based the odds offered at 6.45pm Sunday.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Yarmouth
  • 3.25 Yarmouth
  • 4.25 Listowel
  • 7.30 Newcastle

...from all of which, I think I'll see how Forceful Speed from The Shortlist might get on in the 3.35 Redcar, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Ron O and Forceful Speed both won last time out and are both two from five. Stressfree won his penultimate race. Skilled Warrior and Bringbackmemories won five/six starts ago respectively, but Highwaygrey and Flight of Angels are winless in their recent formline and the latter now steps up in class, as does Bringbackmemories.

Stressfree makes a yard, a UK and a handicap debut after just three outings in France for Carlos Laffon-Parias, finishing 217 in the process and he, along with Forceful Speed and the sole filly Flight of Angels all receive a 5lb allowance as 3 yr olds.

Ron O, Skilled Warrior and Stressfree are yet to win over a similar trip, although they have won over a mile, a mile and 1m1f respectively, whilst Instant Expert says that of the three to have already raced here at Redcar, only Ron O (2 from 2) has won at the track and the lack of a 1m2f victory aside, he does seem to be well suited by conditions...

...although he is up 7lbs for that win 24 days ago, whereas Forceful Speed is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win. There doesn't seem to be too many horror stories above, win-wise, although you might think that Skilled Warrior and Flight of Angels weren't quite at Class 4 standard and it is Ron O and Forceful Speed who catch the eye here. The draw might be a factor here as those two will emerge from the lowest and highest stalls, so let's see if that could sway our decision making...

And that looks like much better news for Forceful Speed than Ron O, but the pace data suggests that if the latter can get out and set/be up with the pace, it might not be a total disaster...

...but sadly Ron O doesn't look like the type to set the tempo of a race and it's likely that Forceful Speed and Flight Of Angels will be the ones leading them out from stalls 1 & 5 respectively and we'd have to hope than the latter can tow Ron O into the race...

Summary

Forceful Speed was always going to be of interest, but I really liked Ron O until the pace/draw data cast a bit of a shadow over him. I still think he'll go well and is more than capable of winning this, but if he doesn't follow Flight of Angels early, as she tacks across, then his chance might be gone. Elsewhere Forceful Speed has the plum draw and is likely to get out sharpish, meaning he can hold the rail and take the shortest route and it's for this reason that I'm taking him at 11/4 (Hills @ 4.45pm) to beat the 7/1 (Hills) Ron O.

That said, 7/1 is a decent E/W option and I fancy Ron O to be ahead of Flight of Angels late on.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 29/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.30 Leicester
  • 3.40 Leicester
  • 4.00 Redcar
  • 4.25 Huntingdon
  • 4.30 Ballinrobe

...the best of which looks like being the 4.00 Redcar, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think that it's a fairly tight call between five runners, but let's make out own mind up about a field that has two LTO winners in the shape of City Streak (the form horse here) and Pillar of Hope, whilst of their rivals only Cap Francais, Baryshnikov and bottom weight Highwaygrey are winless in at least five.

War In Heaven and City Streak both step up a class here, but Pillar of Hope and Highwaygrey and up two classes here, which can't be good for the latter on a losing run. Conversely, Oviedo is our sole 3yr old and sole class dropper; he's also on handicap debut here. His opening mark of 97 is probably fair, but the 14lb weight allowance should be more than useful here.

All bar Cap Francais, War In Heaven and Oviedo have already won at this trip, but only Pillar of Hope has a Redcar victory on his CV after winning over course and distance last September.

Eight of the nine runner hve already raced this season (inside 52 days), but it's possible that Kitsune Power might be in need of a run after an eight month break since trailing home last of 28 in the Cambridgeshire.

Elsewhere, according to Instant Expert, six of the field have already scored on good to firm ground and three are former Class 2 winners...

Baryshnikov looks vulnerable on good to firm ground, whilst Cap Francais' best work has been at Classes 3 & 4. Even before we look at place form, I prefer the look of others, especially with Cap's 0 from 6 return at the trip. The returning Kitsune Power is 6lbs higher than his last win and he floundered off this mark last time out.

Now for the place stats...

...which also do little for bottomweight Highwaygrey and I think I'm going to need persuasion on pace and draw to look twice at him, Baryshnikov, Cap Francais or Kitsune Power. Which brings us neatly to the draw and having looked at past similar contests, I'm not convinced that the draw alone could make or break a runner's chances...

.and that it is the following pace data that should define a contest here at Redcar...

Leader win more often (2.5 times the expected) and make the frame more often than the other three running styles. Prominent runners just about achieve par score, but anything further back in the pack is going to struggle. Cue 'feature of the day' the racecard pace tab...

...which suggests the pace in the race is going to come from the inside four stalls, particularly from War In Heaven.

Summary

War In Heaven is sure to try and win this from the front, but he's on a mark that's too high for him, he hasn't raced on turf since last September (10 starts ago) and has yet to win on the Flat and I doubt he's winning here. Next off the rank for pace is likely to be Pillar of Hope, who comes here in good nick and is only up 2lbs for a win last time out. That would normally stand him in good stead, but he did only win by a head and it was down at Class 4. His yard/jockey won this race last year, but they might have to settle for the places here.

Which brings us to City Streak, the form horse who has eight successive top 3 finishes over the last year and three weeks, including two wins from the last five and impressed last time out by managing to win at Chester, not only from stall 8 but also from a poor field position and I have to agree with the market, who have him as the 7/2 favourite to win. He'd be my pick here.

Pillar of Hope (above) has a great chance of making the frame, but 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me and I see challenges coming for him from the likes of Turntable and Oviedo with that weight allowance. The bookies have spotted Oviedo and have him at 4/1, so no E/W bet for me there either, but both Bet365 & 888Sport have Turntable at 11/1 and he might just be the E/W punt here.

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.