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Racing Insights, 3rd November 2020

Tuesday's free feature is the simple but effective Shortlist report, whilst the daily free races are...

  • 1.25 Exeter
  • 2.33 Southwell
  • 2.55 Exeter
  • 3.45 Fairyhouse
  • 7.45 Newcastle

And I'm going to take a look at the Shortlist report to see if we can spot a winner for tomorrow from the following...

I'm going to assess three from the above and it makes sense to look at the 6.45 Newcastle race with two qualifiers and then I'll focus on the 3.10 Redcar for a bit of variety...

Twisted Dreams and Island Storm are numbers 8 and 9 on the racecard, as they are the bottom two in the weights. Island Storm comes here in the best form having finished 211 in his last three contests, all here on this track including wins over 7f at Class 6 and then a Class 5 course and distance success here last time out.  Island Storm, on the other hand, was also a class, course and distance winner here this time last year, but has failed to beat a rival since, finishing 6th, 6th and 10th, albeit in a higher grade over longer trips.

On the green trainer/jockey icons, Island Storm clearly holds the upper hand thanks to the yard's recent form and overall course success, but jockey Paul Mulrennan aboard twisted Dreams is in good nick right now.

Instant Expert essentially puts the shortlist information into numbers...

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and the obvious areas for discussion are Island Storm's 0 from 3 in fields of 8-11 runners and Twisted Dream's 1 from 4 at Class 5. In isolation, they're not good numbers, but the latter is 1 from 3 in the lower value (sub £3500) Class 5 contests and the former is 2 from 2 in 6/7 runner contests, whilst the Official ratings show Island Storm running off a mark 4lbs lower than his last win (and also his last run), whilst Twisted Dreams is up 6lbs for that LTO win, but at a Geegeez Speed rating of 62, he is top of the shop here today.

The pace/draw heat map for this type of contest isn't massively conclusive...

...but a high draw is definitely a positive here, but our pair are drawn centrally in stalls 4 and 5, but I suppose as long as they're not mid-division type horses, they'll not be out of it, so let's see...

...which suggests they'll both be keen to get on with it. Of the two, I have to prefer Twisted Dreams, as he looks to be progressing nicely, whilst Island Storm's lack of a win the last year is a serious worry. TD is of course up 6lbs, but looked like he had something in reserve. Incidentally, the third placed horse has already reappeared to over course and distance at a higher grade, whilst the runner-up reopposes here.

I'll decide how to play this shortly when I look at the market, but first I was to consider Finoah's chance in the 3.10 Redcar, which looks like...

The SR (Geegeez Speed Rating) of 69 is top rank in this field and the horse comes here on the back of a win last time out when he landed a class, course and distance soft-ground seller eight days ago, so conditions look ideal here. He was the best part of six lengths clear that day and has at least 4lbs in hand on all his rivals based on his OR of 82. Trainer Tom Dascombe and jockey Richard Kingscote have good individual records here at Redcar and I think everyone already knows that they're a formidable team together.

Instant Expert speaks for itself...

...and the field criteria is possibly the least important there. He has won three times in 8/9 runner fields and 7 is an arbitrary cut off point in my opinion. Form, going, class, course and distance all carry more weight for me, as often does the pace/draw angles...

He doesn't necessarily have the perfect draw for his running style here, but with the obvious exception of Twpsyn in stall 1, there aren't many in the ideal place on the heatmap.

That aside, he looks a real contender here, especially as from his reasonable 4 from 24 on the Flat, he is 4/19 in a visor, 4/8 on soft/heavy, 2/3 here at Redcar, 1/1 over this trip and 1/1 over course and distance. He is also 4 from 7 on soft/heavy in a visor, as he was when winning here last time out at odds of 4/9 and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go off that short again.

Summary

From the two in Newcastle race, my preference is for Twisted Dreams and although I expect traveller to run him close again (as might Rum Runner), I think bet 365's 4/1 pricetag is more than fair, so I'd be happy with a nibble at that. Island Storm isn't fancied at all, yet has the ability to get involved at a huge (currently 25/1) price, but he won't be carrying any of my money this time around, as I'm unconvinced he's as good as he was last year.

As for Finoah, here's a shock for you, I rarely back odds on shots and even more rarely do I advise others to back them, but at 4/5 there might actually be some value about him, I was expecting much shorter and I expect him to win.

Racing Insights, 26th October 2020

I liked Indian Pursuit's chances at 3/1 on Saturday and got some value with him going off at 9/4. As expected, Rocketeer set off quickly and our boy overhauled him as planned and all was going well until a 16/1 shot finished best of all, beating us by a neck. As for the second runner, Mr Wagyu, the cards and associated data said he was a no-hoper and so it proved as he finished 9th of 10 at 20/1.

Monday heralds the start of a new week for Racing Insights and the free feature of the day is access to the Pace tab for ALL races, whilst the free racecards cover...

  • 12.40 Redcar
  • 1.15 Redcar
  • 2.30 Galway
  • 3.10 Leicester
  • 3.55 Newcastle
  • 4.15 Galway

And the one I'm going to look at is the 1.15 Redcar, a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over a mile with the winner receiving £7763 and we start with the racecard sorted into Geegeez Speed rating order...

As you can see, Young Fire, Al Erayg and Stone Soldier head the rankings, whilst we should note the good recent form (14, 30) of James Fanshawe's runners (Turn on the Charm) and also jockey Ella McCain (Al Erayg) with her useful 7lb claim. Track-wise, trainer Mark Johnston (Striding Edge) looks to do well here (C5), whilst trainer James Given (Stone Soldier) and jockey Tony Hamilton (Memory Dream) haven't fared too well here of late (C5 and C1 respectively).

The draw data is fairly inconclusive with no real apparent bias on show for this type of contest, so no positives nor negatives here, as shown below...

...so with the draw alone not providing any clues and the pace tab being the free daily feature, we really should consider how the two marry together...

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...obviously we have no data for the UK debutant Memory Dream, but the heat map suggests Poet's Dawn will lead, but that's not usually a good tactic here. Not many seem to have the ideal pace/draw matchup, but Crownthorpe and Turn on the Charm seem to be best suited, whilst I wouldn't be too put off by the way Al Erayg, Striding Edge or Stone Soldier look either.

So, we've got some names being mentioned several times already, but not there's not enough in the above for me to make a decision, so let's have a look at each runner in turn to see if there's anything of note in their past performances, so in alphabetical order...

Al Erayg : Only 1 win in 25 on the Flat and that's not inspiring, but that win was here at Redcar over course and distance on soft ground, wearing cheekpieces and a tongue tie in a 16-runner handicap just two starts and 23 days ago.

Only beaten by 4 lengths in a soft ground Class 2 contest last time out and conditions will be very similar here today, as he takes a drop in class and the booking of an in-from (has won her last three) 7lb claimer is another positive.

Crownthorpe : At the end of last season, his figures said he had two wins and two places from five runs on soft ground, he had three wins at this trip and two wins at this grade.

Based on the above he'd be a real contender, but he has looked really out of sorts this campaign, making the frame just once in four attempts and although a drop in class should help him, it's hard to justify putting any money down.

Global Spirit : Has had a really good season with two wins and two places from seven starts, the latest being a career best effort to land a 16-runner affair on soft ground at York seventeen days ago.

He's up in both class and trip today and with a 5lb hike in weights on top of that, I'd say this should be beyond him from a win perspective at least, although he does go best under today's jockey, Ben Curtis, as they have 4 wins and 3 places from 10 races together.

Memory Dream : No UK form to discuss and a first start for trainer Ivan Furtado and hasn't had an outing for four months since finishing last of nine in a listed contest.

He was two from six in France, winning on soft and very soft over 7.5f, so conditions shouldn't be too far beyond him, but a mark of 97 looks excessive.

Poet's Dawn : Will probably attempt to win this from the front, a tactic that doesn't usually work in this type of race and although he did win a Class 3 handicap over 1m2f on soft ground at Ripon in August adopting the same tactics, he has been disappointing on two runs since off marks of 83 and 84.

Still rated 83, I think the handicapper has him held here and when you consider that he's 0/5 here at Redcar, 0/11 over a mile and 0/11 under today's jockey, you'd have to fancy others before him.

Stone Soldier : An A/W winner two starts ago, but is only 1/10 on the Flat and was well beaten last time out finishing 11 lengths behind the re-opposing Al Erayg over course and distance here.

He has won on soft ground previously and has also won under today's jockey. As Al Erayg is now ridden by a 7lb claimer, Stone Soldier is now even worse off at the weights, which means he's even less likely to overturn the 11 length deficit.

Striding Edge : Useful but inconsistent/unreliable type. Has won three times and placed twice from ten starts this season, but has finished 11th of 11, 13th of 13, 1st of 7 and 8th of 9 in his last four starts, which backs up the useful but unreliable tag.

In his defence, he is 1 from 1 at Class 3 on turf and has two wins and a place from four starts at this trip, but has never run on anything softer than good ground, is 0/3 under Franny Norton. He could win this at a big price, but is equally or more likely to come home stone last!

Turn On The Charm : Likely to be very popular, comes here in good form, has a top jockey on board and the Geegeez racecards suggest a good run.

Back to back wins (C4, 1m & C3, 8.5f) off marks of 77 and 82 send him here seeking a hat-trick, but he's raised another 6lbs here and has never encountered soft ground before. Major player if he handles the extra weight and the soft ground.

Young Fire : Speedy sort (top of our ratings) who was only beaten by less than four lengths over 6f in the Class 2 Ayr Gold Cup. Prior to that he had landed a Class 3 soft ground handicap at Haydock, whilst last time out, he was within three lengths of the winner in a Class 2 1m contest at York on soft.

This is a drop in both class and competitiveness and a similar effort to that York run would put him right in the mix here. He has two wins and place from five on soft ground and a similar record under today's jockey, but a 0/7 record at 7.5f-1m is an obvious black mark, as is the burden of top weight.

Summary

Turn on the Charm looks amongst the likely contenders here but at a price of 6/4 (Sunday 6.20pm), I can't back him : I can't see how the market rates him that much more likely to win than the others especially off such a high mark and on a soft ground debut.

So, the two I do like here are Al Arayg and Young Fire. Al Arayg looks long at 12/1 to me, based on what I've written above. I expected around 8/1 to 10/1, so he's a positive here, even from an E/W perspective.

Young Fire was 2.5 lengths ahead of him last time out and provided he doesn't leave his charge for the line too late, he should be a solid 5/1 pick here.

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

1.40 Fontwell : Compadre @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 5/1 (Always towards rear, never on terms) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this shortly, of course...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding with 2 wins and a place from four runs since racing resumed in June all at Class 6 and under today's jockey Kevin Stott. The first of those runs/wins was his only previous visit to Redcar, so he has an unbeaten record to protect here.

The racecard shows plenty of green icons denoting both trainer and jockey have been in decent form of late and both have good records at this venue, whilst my report show that that pair have fared well together over the last year.

And I want to expand slightly upon the trainer/jockey record this morning before wrapping today's piece up, because since the start of 2018 the Midgley/Stott combo is 15 from 53 (28.3% SR) for 28.75pts (+54.2% ROI) in Flat handicaps at odds of 8/1 and shorter, including of note today...

  • 11/37 (29.7%) for 27.8pts (+75.1%) with horses rested for less than three weeks
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 26pts (+108.3%) with horses placed LTO
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 7.35pts (+35%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 6/15 (40%) for 7.6pts (+50.6%) at Class 6
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 5.64pts (+56.4%) in August...

...whilst in races worth less than £8k with horses placed LTO less than three weeks earlier, the pair are 6 from 16 (37.5% SR) for 12.84pts (+80.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG or bigger as was available at 8.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.