Posts

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.35 Ffos Las : Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Tracked leaders, lost place 5 out, outpaced next, rallied after last, took modest 3rd near finish, no chance with front pair )

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £6663 to the winner...

Why?...

More about this later...

...but first... a 1pt win bet on Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.35 Ffos Las : Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Tracked leaders, lost place 5 out, outpaced next, rallied after last, took modest 3rd near finish, no chance with front pair )

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £6663 to the winner...

Why?...

More about this later...

...but first... a 1pt win bet on Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Wolverhampton: Zapper Cass @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, soon driven to challenge, kept on well towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sameem @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

James Tate's three-year-old New Approach colt is making his handicap debut in this contest. The trainer excels with handicap debutants and has won with 12 of the 36 he's saddled in the past year (33.33%, +15.19, A/E 1.85).

Indeed, in the last four months, Tate's form with first time handicap runners reads 6112111278611.

Tate is in excellent form recently, too, having scored with four of the eleven runners he's had in the past fortnight (36.36%, +7.63, A/E 1.52). Two more have made the frame in that time.

A winner on his previous start by no less than six lengths, staying on over 7 1/2 furlongs at Beverley, the step up in trip looks ideal for Sameem, but it is the switch to handicaps that catches the eye. Tate is three-from-five in the past year with such horses when they won their last start (60%, +5.33, A/E 1.95)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sameem 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 8th April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Wolverhampton: Zapper Cass @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, soon driven to challenge, kept on well towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sameem @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

James Tate's three-year-old New Approach colt is making his handicap debut in this contest. The trainer excels with handicap debutants and has won with 12 of the 36 he's saddled in the past year (33.33%, +15.19, A/E 1.85).

Indeed, in the last four months, Tate's form with first time handicap runners reads 6112111278611.

Tate is in excellent form recently, too, having scored with four of the eleven runners he's had in the past fortnight (36.36%, +7.63, A/E 1.52). Two more have made the frame in that time.

A winner on his previous start by no less than six lengths, staying on over 7 1/2 furlongs at Beverley, the step up in trip looks ideal for Sameem, but it is the switch to handicaps that catches the eye. Tate is three-from-five in the past year with such horses when they won their last start (60%, +5.33, A/E 1.95)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sameem 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.30 Uttoxeter : Classic Jewel @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 : Mid-division, close up 5th, chased leader 3 out, soon ridden, lost place between last 2, no impression with front pair before last, just held on for 3rd...

Friday's selection goes in the...

4.55 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Restive @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 6, 3yo+ Lady amateur riders' handicap over 1m2f on Good ground...

...and a 4 year old gelding trained by Iain Jardine, whose form at the end of the Flat season is generally something to keep an eye on as 2015-17 / Flat handicaps / August - October = 36/220 (16.4% SR) for 109.6pts at an ROI of 49.8%, including...

  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 34/174 (19.5%) for 138.7pts (+79.7%)
  • on Good ground : 13/64 (20.3%) for 88.3pts (+138%)
  • 4 yr olds are 13/57 (22.8%) for 76.6pts (+134.4%)
  • LTO runners-up are 6/31 (19.4%) for 54.4pts (+175.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/16 (18.75%) for 4.55pts (+28.4%)

Now in this type of race, jockey booking plays a big part in how the races unfold, but thankfully in Serena Brotherton, we have the UK's best Lady Amateur rider, one who is actually profitable to follow blindly!

Since the start of 2008, her record stands at 85/465 (18.3% SR) for 138pts (+29.7% ROI), whilst in handicaps, she is 83/454 (18.3%) for 143pts (+31.5%) and with today's contest in mind, those 454 handicap races include...

  • Amateur Riders Only : 75/397 (18.9%) for 104.3pts (+26.3%)
  • on Flat (turf) : 64/354 (18.1%) for 125.6pts (+35.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 39/241 (16.2%) for 47.9pts (+19.9%)
  • Ladies Only races : 44/226 (19.5%) for 124.5pts (+55.1%)
  • Lady Amateur races : 36/175 (20.6%) for 79.8pts (+45.6%)
  • on Good ground : 19/114 (16.7%) for 40.6pts (+35.6%)
  • and over today's 1m2f trip : 16/99 (16.2%) for 47.6pts (+48.1%)

Serena also rides Hannington in the 2nd division of this race (card here) and is worth a second look...

...but our bet is... a 1pt win bet on Restive @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from SkyBet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.30pm on Thursday. Those able to take 11/2 from Bet365 should do so and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2017

Monday's Result :

3.35 Worcester : Addrastos @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : Led until 3rd, prominent, ridden when not fluent 2 out, close 3rd flat, held towards finish and beaten by less than 3 lengths...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.50 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Placebo Effect @ 9/2 non-BOG or 4/1 BOG

Why?

311313 Last 6 runs, 3rd of 9 in a much stronger Class 2 hcp LTO 6 days back, now down 3lbs and 3 classes and should enjoy conditions, as he's...

  • 2 wins, 2 placed from 6 under today's jockey Andrew Mullen
  • 3+2 from 5 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3+2/5 rated (OR) 51 to 70
  • 3 from 3 at 4/1 or shorter
  • 3/3 within a fortnight of last run
  • 2+1/3 at 7f
  • 2+1/3 on soft

Plus 2014-17 : trainer Ollie Peers runners returning 4-7 days after they last ran = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 31.1pts (+107.4% ROI), including...

  • males at 12/24 (50%) for 32.8pts (+136.6%)
  • hcps : 10/24 (41.7%) for 27pts (+112.6%)
  • at 9/4 to 15/2 : 12/23 (52.2%) for 35.3pts (+153.5%)
  • on the Flat : 11/23 (47.8%) for 30.3pts (+131.6%)
  • Monday to Friday racing : 12/22 (54.6%) for 34.4pts (+156.2%)
  • June to September : 11/20 (55%) for 33.3pts (+166.4%)
  • Class 5 : 6/14 (42.9%) for 18pts (+128.7%)
  • in 2017 : 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.24pts (+189.1%)
  • under Andrew Mullen : 4/6 (66.6%) for 14.2pts (+237.3%)
  • over 7/7.5 furlongs : 4/6 (66.6%) for 9.87pts (+164.5%)
  • 2 yr olds are 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.7pts (+90%)
  • and on soft ground : 1/1 (100%) for 2.85pts (+285%)

AND...since 2014 / Flat (turf) hcp @ 9/4 to 15/2 on Monday to Friday in June to Setpember = 7/9 (77.8% SR) for 31.45pts (+349.4% ROI), from which Class 5's are 3 from 4, Andrew Mullen is 2/2 as are both 7/7.5f and 2017 runners.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Placebo Effect @ 9/2 non-BOG or 4/1 BOG, as of 5.50pm on Monday. The non-BOG price is from Betfred & Totesport, who don't go BOG until the morning of the race, whilst the BOG price is fairly widely available, so I'll let you make your own choice! For what it's worth, I'm on with Betfred at the higher price, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Cheltenham : Young Dillon @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/1 (Held up, in mid-division, in touch form 4th, not fluent 6th, ridden and hanging left after 3 out, hampered on bend after next, stayed on same pace flat)

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding wasn't beaten by far (a length, a head and a nose) into 4th place of a big field (16 ran) handicap at Thirsk last time out almost 6 weeks ago. His performance looks even better after the event, when you realise that from stall 1, he was clearly on the "wrong side" as the rest of the first five home came from stalls 10, 16, 13 and 9.

The runner-up has since won in another big filed and that was over today's course and distance, so if the form holds out, we could be well in.

Prior to that defeat at Thirsk, Tricky Dicky's form was 1212, all over this 6f trip and to date, he is 3/10 (30% SR) for 58.93pts (+589.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps, from which the following are relevant today...

  • over 6f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 61.9pts (+884.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/6 (50%) for 62.9pts (+1048.8%)
  • at 4/1 and shorter : 2/5 (40%) for 2.13pts (+42.6%)
  • in fields of 9-13 runners : 3/3 (100%) for 65.93pts (+2197.7%)
  • on a straight track : 2/4 (50%) for 60.12pts (+1503%)
  • here at Redcar : 1/1 (100%) for 60.8pts (+608%)

That Redcar win above was over this track and trip and with the 33/1 SP paying out 60.8pts profit at Betfair SP, that clearly skews the P/L and ROI of the above stats somewhat, but doesn't detract from their validity.

A further level of reassurance can be taken from the fact that he's by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3 yr olds are 82/596 (13.8% SR) for 279.6pts (+46.9% ROI) in UK Flat races, of which...

  • over 6f : 22/135 (16.3%) for 121.2pts (+89.7%)
  • this year : 19/102 (18.6%) for 141pts (+138.2%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/84 (16.7%) for 49.8pts (+59.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 2/9 (22.2%) for 62.2pts (+690.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG, a price widely available at 9.55pm on Sunday, althouh I'd advise using Bet365 where possible, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Redcar.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Cheltenham : Young Dillon @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/1 (Held up, in mid-division, in touch form 4th, not fluent 6th, ridden and hanging left after 3 out, hampered on bend after next, stayed on same pace flat)

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding wasn't beaten by far (a length, a head and a nose) into 4th place of a big field (16 ran) handicap at Thirsk last time out almost 6 weeks ago. His performance looks even better after the event, when you realise that from stall 1, he was clearly on the "wrong side" as the rest of the first five home came from stalls 10, 16, 13 and 9.

The runner-up has since won in another big filed and that was over today's course and distance, so if the form holds out, we could be well in.

Prior to that defeat at Thirsk, Tricky Dicky's form was 1212, all over this 6f trip and to date, he is 3/10 (30% SR) for 58.93pts (+589.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps, from which the following are relevant today...

  • over 6f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 61.9pts (+884.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/6 (50%) for 62.9pts (+1048.8%)
  • at 4/1 and shorter : 2/5 (40%) for 2.13pts (+42.6%)
  • in fields of 9-13 runners : 3/3 (100%) for 65.93pts (+2197.7%)
  • on a straight track : 2/4 (50%) for 60.12pts (+1503%)
  • here at Redcar : 1/1 (100%) for 60.8pts (+608%)

That Redcar win above was over this track and trip and with the 33/1 SP paying out 60.8pts profit at Betfair SP, that clearly skews the P/L and ROI of the above stats somewhat, but doesn't detract from their validity.

A further level of reassurance can be taken from the fact that he's by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3 yr olds are 82/596 (13.8% SR) for 279.6pts (+46.9% ROI) in UK Flat races, of which...

  • over 6f : 22/135 (16.3%) for 121.2pts (+89.7%)
  • this year : 19/102 (18.6%) for 141pts (+138.2%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/84 (16.7%) for 49.8pts (+59.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 2/9 (22.2%) for 62.2pts (+690.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG, a price widely available at 9.55pm on Sunday, although I'd advise using Bet365 where possible, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Redcar.

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.30 Wolverhampton: Ilzam @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Redcar

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dandyleekie at 11/4 BOG.

Why?

Since the start of the 2012 campaign, trainer David O'Meara's runners have won 35 times from 190 (18.4% SR) efforts on the flat here at Redcar with the 53.6pts level stakes profits equating to an ROI of a very useful 28.2% and in the context of today's encounter, those runners are...

  • 27/134 (20.2% SR) for 48.1pts (+35.9% ROI) in handicaps
  • 31/132 (23.5% SR) for 83.6pts (+63.3% ROI) at odds of 9/4 to 12/1
  • 21/84 (25% SR) for 55pts (+65.5% ROI) ridden by Danny Tudhope
  • 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 31.7pts (+51.9% ROI) 4 to 15 days after their last run
  • 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 40pts (+97.5% ROI) as 4 yr olds
  • and 5 from 26 (19.2% SR) for 10.8pts (+41.5% ROI) at Class 4.

From the above, Danny Tudhope is 13 from 46 (28.3% SR) for 39.7pts (+86.4% ROI) in handicaps at odds of 9/4 to 12/1.

Dandyleekie's win last time out a fortnight ago was his first run for six months and since the start of 2014, the O'Meara Class 4 handicappers with just one run in the previous 90 days are 14 from 52 (26.9% SR) for 60.1pts (+115.5% ROI) with the following of interest today...

  • males are 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 64pts (+152.4% ROI)
  • those with a top 5 finish LTO are 11/32 (34.4% SR) for 29.6pts (+92.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 9/30 (30% SR) for 27.1pts (+90.2% ROI)
  • those racing over 5 to 7 furlongs are 7/25 (28% SR) for 36.6pts (+146.4% ROI)
  • and 4 yr olds are 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 49.9pts at an ROI of 262.7%

That win last time out also came after a switch of yard following a sequence of results that saw him fail to finish in the first three home in five consecutive outings. Yet, since 2009 in the months of April to October, handicappers racing over trips shorter than 1m5f at classes 3 to 5, 11 to 25 days after a win that was preceded by three or more unplaced efforts are 58/388 (15% SR) for 139.1pts (+35.8% ROI), provided they aren't stepped up in trip by more than a furlong, aren't rated any more than 4lbs higher than LTO and aren't stepping up by more than one class.

(sounds complicated, but it really isn't!)

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Dandyleekie at 11/4 BOG with any one of around a dozen firms all quoting the same price at 6.40pm. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 29th July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 29th July 2015

It's becoming a bit like the film, Groundhog Day, here at DD, as we rattled the crossbar again yesterday.

We had both the winner and the runner-up at Goodwood (and a bonus in the shape of a 15/2 exacta), but had to settle for the minor honours at Wolverhampton.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Livella Fella : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Invigorate : 3rd at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Toormore : WON at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Dutch Connection : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
637 winning selections from 2245 = 28.37%
201 winning bets in 582 days = 34.54%

Stakes: 1163.50pts
Returns: 1286.31pts
P/L : +122.81pts (+10.56% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Wednesday's selected races are...

4.05 Redcar :

Because First Sargeant's 6 length win at Wetherby last week was in an apprentices' race, he escapes any penalty and gets to run here off the same mark of 59. And in fact, he's effectively 2lbs better off as last week's 3lb claimer is replaced by the 5lb claim of Rachel Richardson, who is usually pretty good value for her claim. She has ridden 3 winners from 13 in the last fortnight and now partners a horse proven at both the trip and on soft ground.

First Sargeant has actually won over a longer trip than this on soft ground, as recently as 4 starts ago at Windsor, so if it becomes a test of stamina, I'd not expect that to be his undoing and I actually fully expect him to take this one at odds of around 5/2 BOG.

There's pros and cons about all of his rivals here and I think I'm going to take a 7/1 BOG punt on Stoked to be the backup here. Trainer Ed Walker has a good recent record at this track and jockey Antonio Fresu has a 1-in-3 strike rate over the last couple of months (7/21) and they now team up with a horse who has won on soft ground in the past.

Stoked, admittedly, hasn't performed as well as hoped/expected this year after a promising 2 yr old season (421), but hasn't encountered soft ground this term yet. He only lost by three quarters of a length to comfirmed mudlark Yeenaan on his first soft ground effort, before winning at Nottingham, beating Winterval (a winner 4 weeks ago) by four lengths. Conditions are better for Stoked here and with his 10lb weight for age allowance, could spring a surprise.

*

7.35 Sandown :

I think it will pay to side with a couple of unexposed types making their handicap debuts for in-form trainers here.

Decorated Knight has run creditably well so far, if not quite hitting the heights expected of a horse touted as a Derby runner. Roger Varian's runners are 6/12 in the last week and this horse looks a good contender to improve that figure. Second by a length on his only run as a 2yr old behind Commemorative (who won a Group 3 next time out) and then rested for 226 days.

Second again on his reappearance at Ripon by a length and a quarter but fully 12 lengths clear of the 4th placed horse who has won since, as did Decorated Knight on his third and final outing, comfortably scoring at Haydock 26 days ago and is now priced at around 7/4 BOG (generally) to double up.

To do so, he'll need to see off Pyjama Party, who also comes from a yard in good nick (the Haggas runners are 12/24 in the last fortnight) and has a similar profile to the horse above. Progressive improvement in four starts has seen finishes of 3221, culminating in a made-all five length romp at Ripon 23 days ago, where he really good have won by much further, had that been desired.

Only the runner-up from that race has reappeared since, but that horse (Glad Tidings) was himself an 8 lengths winner at Hamilton a fortnight ago. If the form from those two races works out and Pyjama Party is allowed his head again, then his current odds of 7/2 BOG from Bet365 might prove a little generous!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

First Sargeant / Decorated Knight @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Stan James & Ladbrokes)
First Sargeant / Pyjama Party @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Hills)
Stoked / Decorated Knight @ 21/1 (7/1 & 7/4 : BetVictor, Paddy Power & Hills)
Stoked / Pyjama Party @ 34.67/1 (7/1 & 10/3 : Hills)

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2015

Ruaraidh Hugh showed us again how much he likes racing at Market Rasen by securing a 10 lengths victory, as he was the one with most left at the end.

Those who haven't seen him race before might have been ripping their slips up with about 4 furlongs to run, as he looked beaten and had to be ridden, but this seems to be common about his past runs and he invariably gets a second wind and powers for home.

He made a bit of a rick 4 from home, but recovered well to land the spoils at 9/4, three quarters of a spoint shorter than our advised 3/1 odds.

It has been a terrific week for SotD and I'd love to close it out with a 5th winner from 6 picks via Saturday's...

5.45 Redcar:

A Class 6, 5 furlong handicap on good to firm ground where I've just taken 4/1 BOG about David O'Meara's 3yr old filly, Jebediah Shine.

David O'Meara's record here at Redcar stands at 36 winners from 214 runners (16.8% SR) for level stakes profits of 31.6pts at an ROI of 14.6% from blindly backing all of them. In handicap contests, the record is improved to 27/146 (18.5% SR) for 34.8pts (+23.9% ROI).

That 27/146 record in handicaps can be further analysed as follows...

  • those priced at 15/8 to 12/1 : 26/105 (24.8% SR) for 73.6pts (+70.1% ROI)
  • those running at Class 6 : 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 30.9pts (+59.5% ROI)
  • those competing over 5 furlongs : 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 13.7pts (+72.2% ROI)

Jebediah Shine was a winner as recently as Tuesday, when scoring quite comfortably by a length and a half over 5f at Thirsk in a similar standard race as she faces today. She is raised 6lbs from an OR of 63 to today's 69, but the presence of Josh Doyle in the saddle with his 7lb claim effectively makes her a pound better off.

The fact that she runs in similar conditions to a very recent win makes her of interest to me, as she fits the profile of horses I look out for who run within five days of a win last time out. There are, of course, other criteria that need to be fulfilled and they are, as follows...

Won LTO 1-5 days ago / now priced at 11/10 to 13/2 /running at the same (OR) mark as LTO or up to 7lbs higher / same class as LTO or up one grade / running over a trip no more than 1f different to LTO (longer or shorter) / must have a previous win at today's distance.

That might look complicated, but it really isn't, it's just harder to put in words than it is to implement it!

Anyway, since the start of 2011, this micro-system has produced 141 winners from 423 runners (33.33% SR) and 125.2pts at an ROI of 29.6%. You can, of course, break the figures down in a variety of ways, but with today's conditions in mind, we see that...

  • competing at the same trip as LTO : 100/314 (31.9% SR) for 72pts (+22.9% ROI)
  • running at the same class : 97/279 (34.8% SR) for 88.5pts (+31.7% ROI)
  • those now rated (OR) 6lbs higher : 82/259 (31.7% SR) for 74.3pts (+28.7% ROI)

You can combine all those three subsets to create a really tight micro-system that has found 38 winners from just 123 (30.9% SR) runners and profits of 29.1pts at an ROI of 23.7%. From this, the record over 5 furlongs is 10/30 (33.33% SR) for 9.4pts (+31.4% ROI).

So, based on the above stats and the fact that Jebediah Shine is effectively a pound lighter than her win at Thirsk, she could well take some beating, especially as that Thirsk outing was her first in 19 weeks and she could very strip fitter for the run.

All in all, I think 4/1 BOG looks quite generous and I've gone with Betfair Sportsbook for my wager, but you can get the same odds with both BetVictor and Hills by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 5.45 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 19th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 19th June 2015

In a repeat of Wednesday, Thursday saw us collect a winner in one race, coupled with the runner-up from our other selections, but this time just three quarters of a length denied us the win.

At Chelmsford, Virnon was declared a non-runner whilst preiced at 11/4, meaning a 20p Rule 4 deduction off the early 2/1 taken about Par Three. With his main rival now absent, the market piled into him and he eventually went off at 5/6!

The money was just about proven right as he stayed on well to take the lead with 100 yards to go to win by just half a length, giving a win at 8/5 and also offering us the possibility of two singles in race 2, due to Virnon's no show.

Unfortunately, the second tight finish of the day went the other way, as Multellie beat Searching by two places and four lengths, but went down to the faster-fininshing Leighterton, who caught our runner in the final strides. Perhaps if Ripon's 1m 4f 10yds had just been the true mile and a half, who knows?

Thursday's results were as follows:

Par Three : WON at 5/6 (adv 2/1 = 8/5 after R4)
Virnon : N/R at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Multellie : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Searching : 4th at 7/4 (adv 15/8)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
601 winning selections from 2115 = 28.42%
189 winning bets in 548 days = 34.49%

Stakes: 1095.50pts
Returns: 1206.61pts

P/L : +111.11pts (+10.14% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Another busy Friday on the horizon and we'll go with...

4.45 Redcar:

Although the standard of the Carlsile maiden won by Novancia didn't look too strong and the fact that her opening mark of 79 doesn't do her too many favours, I still fancy her to win again today. She ran quite green at Carlisle and left herself with plenty to do once the penny finally dropped. The manner of the way she ate up the final quarter mile gave more of an indication of what she might run like once settled.

She managed to beat a William Haggas 4/9 favourite, the 78-rated Sharqeyih into third place, but the latter has since run and won at Beverley as recently as Tuesday off the same mark of 78, suggesting that 79 might be fine for Novancia after all. She's sure to come on for having had the run and as such, she'd be my pick at 2/1 BOG.

The consistent Fit The Bill is also of interest here today, taking a drop back in trip after finishing 21122 in his five handicap starts to date, so he knows what the game is about. He's got outsprinted to the line over 11.5 and 11 furlongs on his last two outings and it's felt that he'll see todays 10 furlongs out better, having won at Wolverhampton over a similar trip.

Fit The Bill was a length and a half ahead of third placed Dannyday last time out and that horse has returned to action by winning at Haydock, suggesting that our boy's run last time out wasn't too bad and although he wouldn't be my first pick, form suggests he's definitely going to be there or thereabouts again at 5/2 BOG.

*

5.40 Limerick:

An interesting little 7-runner maiden in prospect here, where the O'Brien colt, Jacobean comes out best at the weights, being officially rated at 90, but hasn't really progressed since finishing fourth in last October's Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, where there was no disgrace in getting beaten by Elm Park or his own stablemate Aloft, who goes at Ascot this afternoon.

He has been consistently on the verge of winning, finishing 432 since and this is possibly the weakest race he's contested to date. There are obvious concerns about his attitude/temperament and he wears a hood allied to a first-time tongue tie today, but if they do the trick then a return to that Doncaster form is possible, making Jacobean a viable proposition at 5/2 BOG.

My preference, however, is for Chenega Bay, despite him being 5lbs worse off in effect rated 85. The Lyons horse has been improving run upon run and has finished as a narrowly beaten (NK, 1.5L, 0.75L) runner-up in each of his last three runs. He has been somewhat unlicky to bump into a couple of very promising winners in that recent run and in the absence of an obvious class hoirse here, I'd take Chenega Bay to take this at 2/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Novancia / Chenega Bay @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Novancia / Jacobean @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Fit The Bill / Chenega Bay @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Fit The Bill / Jacobean @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)

Double Dutch, 27th October 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th October 2014

It might only have been a short-priced winning double on Saturday that paid us out at 13/2, but it was more than welcome for a few reasons.

Firstly, it once again highlighted the benefit if using the BOG bookies, as our 13/2 bet only paid out at 17/4 at SPp, meaning that although our profit was modest on the day, we got 153% of SP.

Secondly, it was good to get that 1-2 monkey off my back. A week of consistently decent performances yielding nothing is frustrating and to pair a winner with a runner-up every day was mildly annoying, shall we say? 😀

As it was, Hawdyerwheesht was workmanlike to grind out a one length victory at Stratford to send us with renewed hope for the Racing Post trophy, where surely Elm Park would do the business?

And so it was, Elm Park was asked to go and win the race from a furlong out and off he went, impressively sweeping home to win by the best art of three lengths to at least enable us to end the week on a high.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Your first 30 days for just £1

Hawdyerwheesht: won at evens (adv 6/4)
Red Seventy: fell at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
------------------------------------------
Elm Park: won at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Jacobean: 4th at 3/1 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
385 winning selections from 1356 = 28.39%
123 winning bets in 353 days = 34.84%

Stakes: 705.50pts
Returns: 745.21pts

P/L : +39.71pts (+5.63% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Monday's are invariably poor / tricky / awkward (delete as applicable! 😀 ), but here goes...

12.40 Redcar:

As I tend to do in these juvenile races, I'll take one from those with racecourse experience and one newcomer. of those with runs under their belt, Ythan Waters has demonstrated a good level of consistency and surely sets the benchmark for success here. He's still a maiden after 7 starts, but certainly knows what the game is about and having been placed 5 times (4 times a runner-up), he's generally the one to beat. He seems to lose and/or weaken late on and the drop back in trip to 6f might just be what he heeds to get off the mark at 9/4 BOG.

The newcomer who catches my eye is the Goldolphin-owned and Saeed bin Suroor-trained Highest Level. Readers of SotD will know I'm a fan of Saeed and his ability to get his two year olds ready and I expect this one to be no different. He's out of a half sister to the decent Queen of Naples and he's by Invincible Spirit whose 2 yr olds have a good recent at the shorter trips. The yard doesn't come here often but their juvies are 3/11 in recent years and this could make it 4/12 with a win at 9/4 BOG.

There's absolutely nothing to split them in the market, but favs/jt favs are 56/117 (47.9% SR) for 34.4pts (+29.4% ROI) in 2 yo non-handicaps here at Redcar in the last five years.

*

3.00 Leicester:

Sir Domino was beaten by less than two lengths and looked pretty impressive on debut at Redcar 10 days ago. The ground was on the softer side of good to soft, so he should relish the conditions underfoot here today. He was only beaten by a more experienced (and 1/2 fav!) stablemate, Properus that day and managed to pull 6 lengths clear of the third placed horse with the rest of the field spread out behind them. There's no hot pot to contend with and he's sue to come on for the run and looks most likely here at 6/4 BOG (Stan James)

Of the rivals, I'd expect the main threat to be Quintus Cerialis who is similarly priced at 6/4 BOG and comes here off the back of a decent enough run to finish third at York in a better race than this. She was only beaten by four lengths that day against some promising types, but did finsih three lengths ahead of Wolfofwallstreet who is a warm favourite in the 1.40 ar Redcar today and his performance might give us some clues as to what we can expect here.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Ythan Waters / Sir Domino @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)
Ythan Waters / Quintus Cerialis @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)
Highest Level / Sir Domino @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)
Highest Level / Quintus Cerialis @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)