Double Dutch, 19th June 2015
In a repeat of Wednesday, Thursday saw us collect a winner in one race, coupled with the runner-up from our other selections, but this time just three quarters of a length denied us the win.
At Chelmsford, Virnon was declared a non-runner whilst preiced at 11/4, meaning a 20p Rule 4 deduction off the early 2/1 taken about Par Three. With his main rival now absent, the market piled into him and he eventually went off at 5/6!
The money was just about proven right as he stayed on well to take the lead with 100 yards to go to win by just half a length, giving a win at 8/5 and also offering us the possibility of two singles in race 2, due to Virnon's no show.
Unfortunately, the second tight finish of the day went the other way, as Multellie beat Searching by two places and four lengths, but went down to the faster-fininshing Leighterton, who caught our runner in the final strides. Perhaps if Ripon's 1m 4f 10yds had just been the true mile and a half, who knows?
Thursday's results were as follows:
Par Three : WON at 5/6 (adv 2/1 = 8/5 after R4)
Virnon : N/R at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Multellie : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Searching : 4th at 7/4 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
601 winning selections from 2115 = 28.42%
189 winning bets in 548 days = 34.49%
P/L : +111.11pts (+10.14% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Another busy Friday on the horizon and we'll go with...
Although the standard of the Carlsile maiden won by Novancia didn't look too strong and the fact that her opening mark of 79 doesn't do her too many favours, I still fancy her to win again today. She ran quite green at Carlisle and left herself with plenty to do once the penny finally dropped. The manner of the way she ate up the final quarter mile gave more of an indication of what she might run like once settled.
She managed to beat a William Haggas 4/9 favourite, the 78-rated Sharqeyih into third place, but the latter has since run and won at Beverley as recently as Tuesday off the same mark of 78, suggesting that 79 might be fine for Novancia after all. She's sure to come on for having had the run and as such, she'd be my pick at 2/1 BOG.
The consistent Fit The Bill is also of interest here today, taking a drop back in trip after finishing 21122 in his five handicap starts to date, so he knows what the game is about. He's got outsprinted to the line over 11.5 and 11 furlongs on his last two outings and it's felt that he'll see todays 10 furlongs out better, having won at Wolverhampton over a similar trip.
Fit The Bill was a length and a half ahead of third placed Dannyday last time out and that horse has returned to action by winning at Haydock, suggesting that our boy's run last time out wasn't too bad and although he wouldn't be my first pick, form suggests he's definitely going to be there or thereabouts again at 5/2 BOG.
An interesting little 7-runner maiden in prospect here, where the O'Brien colt, Jacobean comes out best at the weights, being officially rated at 90, but hasn't really progressed since finishing fourth in last October's Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, where there was no disgrace in getting beaten by Elm Park or his own stablemate Aloft, who goes at Ascot this afternoon.
He has been consistently on the verge of winning, finishing 432 since and this is possibly the weakest race he's contested to date. There are obvious concerns about his attitude/temperament and he wears a hood allied to a first-time tongue tie today, but if they do the trick then a return to that Doncaster form is possible, making Jacobean a viable proposition at 5/2 BOG.
My preference, however, is for Chenega Bay, despite him being 5lbs worse off in effect rated 85. The Lyons horse has been improving run upon run and has finished as a narrowly beaten (NK, 1.5L, 0.75L) runner-up in each of his last three runs. He has been somewhat unlicky to bump into a couple of very promising winners in that recent run and in the absence of an obvious class hoirse here, I'd take Chenega Bay to take this at 2/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Novancia / Chenega Bay @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Novancia / Jacobean @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Fit The Bill / Chenega Bay @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Fit The Bill / Jacobean @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)