EXETER - NOVEMBER 7
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £16.90 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 placed)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (1.00): 11 (Just A Sting) & 12 (Mance Rayder)
Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Dynamite Dollars) & 5 (Gaelic Prince)
Leg 3 (2.00): 6 (Politologue), 2 (Sir Valentino), 4 (Garde La Victoire)
Leg 4 (2.35): 3 (Barney Dwan), 2 (Ballyoptic) & 4 (De Dollar Man)
Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Above Board), 3 (Royal Palladium) & 1 (Ask The Weatherman)
Leg 6 (3.35): 4 (Arthur McBride) & 5 (Western Wave)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: Five-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals and the trade press price of 11/4 about dual winner JUST A STING does not look realistic with the rain falling as I write this column in the west country. Indeed, you should witness the latest news for yourself later this morning as the threat of showers (or longer spells of rain) are set to last until around lunchtime. A course winner under soft conditions already (albeit in a bumper event), JUST A STING should get the best of the ground before plenty of runners on the card churn up the turf. Rain will be welcomed by Philip Hobbs and the connections for their soft ground bumper winner MANCE RAYDER I fancy, given that the relevant Warwick victory was gained under soft conditions. For the record, Philip has saddled three winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years. SILVER KAYF will probably put his more varied experience to good use to secure the other Placepot position.
Favourite factor: The nine favourites have secured four gold, three silver and one bronze medal thus far.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/1—Just A Sting (good to soft)
1.30: Paul Nicholls (DYNAMITE DOLLRS) leads Philip Hobbs (GAELIC PRINCE) 4-3 via the last ten renewals, whilst I implore you to look at the favourite stats below! Market leaders boast a truly phenomenal record in this contest (as good as any race in the land I’ll wager) whereby I cannot look beyond this pair. Only if the ground came up really soft by early afternoon would I be looking at adding Dessinateur into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Thirteen winning favourites have emerged at 1/6, 4/11, 4/9, 4/9, 4/7, Evens, 10/11, 8/13, 8/11, 11/8, 13/8, 7/4 and 15/8**, whilst the biggest priced scorer to date was returned at 8/1. Eighteen of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, whilst favourites come to the gig on a 12 timer on this occasion!
2.00: Paul Nicholls has won five of the last nineteen ‘Haldon Gold Cup’ contests and significantly, POLITOLOGUE and San Benedeto were his only entries at the four day stage. Tom George has been a thorn in Paul’s side relating to two of the last three renewals of this event, whereby SIR VALENTINO demands to be added into the mix. 10/1 is an attractive price to consider because although Tom’s progressive eight-year-old was winning this race on good going twelve months ago, his record under soft conditions is 3/6. GARDE LA VICTOIRE was short headed by Sir Valentino last year and the Philip Hobbs representative looks sure to be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings. For the record, Richard Johnson’s mount is 4/6 on soft ground.
Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. Nine winners have emerged from the front three horses in the betting during the last fifteen years.
Record of the course winners in the Haldon Gold Cup:
1/3—Sir Valentino (good)
1/2—Garde La Victoire (good to soft)
2/3—Vibrato Valtat (soft & heavy)
2.35: BARNEY DWAN was withdrawn from this event last year and with Fergal O’Brien boasting current stats of 7/17 of late (stats which have produced 26 points of level stake profit), Noel Fehily’s mount could take some stopping, especially with rain getting into the ground during the course of the day. That said, BALLYOPTIC is already a Grade 1 winner over timber and having won a race ‘between the flags’ earlier in his career, the Twiston-Davies camp will be enthusiastic about his chance on his chase debut. Let’s hope that both horses jump well enough to create a ‘best horse on the day’ success, whichever way the race pans out. I’m also drawn towards DE DOLLAR MAN for Evan Williams, especially as the Vinnie Roe gelding is the only runner on the card for the stable. Whatever the six-year-old achieves here will surely be improved upon later in the season.
Favourite factor: The three (8/15, 11/8 & 2/1) favourites have all won their respective events thus far.
3.05: Eight and nine-year-old’s have produced six of the ten winners to date with the ‘older set’ having secured four of the last eight contests. Eight-year-old ASK THE WEATHERMAN is certainly included in my mix but then again, the 14/1 quote by a few bookmakers about the chance of nine-year-old ROYAL PALLADIUM is also catching the eye at the time of writing. Indeed, this is the race on the card which has just about kept the bookmakers afloat during the last decade, with six of the ten winners having been returned in double figures, ranging in price between 10/1 and 25/1. At the other end of the spectrum, ABOVE BOARD looks a worthy favourite for those of you with less speculative tendencies.
Favourite factor: Five market leaders having finished in the frame to date (one winner) via ten renewals.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/2—Royal Palladium (soft)
1/6—Wizards Bridge (soft)
2/3—You Say What (good to soft & heavy)
3/8—Only Gorgeous (good to firm – good – soft)
3.35: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last nine renewals, with five-year-old WESTERN WAVE expected to lead home the relevant four entries on this occasion. Tom George’s Westerner gelding might have to give best to ARTHUR MCBRIDE however, with the Twiston-Davies team seemingly having found a nice opportunity for their unexposed eight-year-old following a spin on the level just three weeks ago.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven favourites have finished in the money (five of which won their respective events), via nine renewals to date.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Tuesday – followed by Exeter record this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Paul Nicholls (2/6 – loss of 1 point)
4—Sue Gardner (3/9 +12)
4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 6 points)
3—Jack R Barber (No previous runners this season at Exeter)
3—Philip Hobbs (1/7 – Slight profit)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (No previous runners)
3—Tim Vaughan (0/5)
3—Venetia Williams (0/2)
3—Laura Young (No previous runners)
2—Kim Bailey (0/4)
2—Alexandra Dunn (No previous runners)
2—Tom George (0/3)
2—Mark Gillard (0/1)
2—Tom Lacey (1/3 – Slight profit)
2—Graeme McPherson (0/1)
2—Neil Mulholland (0/4)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/4)
2—Nick Williams (No previous runners)
2—Robert Walford (1/2 +1)
83 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Redcar: £109.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – placed – 1 unplaced
Kempton A/W: £35.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £330.60 - 8 favourites – 2 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced