Racing Insights, Monday 27/05/24
Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.
The free races of the day on Monday are...
- 3.15 Huntingdon
- 3.40 Leicester
- 4.05 Cartmel
- 4.35 Redcar
- 5.55 Leicester
The highest-rated of those races above, the 4.35 Redcar, also has a good pace spread, so we're going to focus on this 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground, that will be heavy in places...
Maghlaak has made the frame in all six career starts, winning on three occasions and is the only LTO winner in this field. Alpha Crucis was third of eight at Goodwood under similar conditions to today, but none of the others even made the frame on their last outings. All bar Machete have won at least one of their last six races, though, with the top-weight French raider on a losing run of seven.
Arthur's Realm and Bystander both step up a class here and it's a day/race full of 'firsts' as it's the first...
- race for David O'Meara, first in the UK and first handicap race anywhere for Machete
- time in cheekpieces for Bill Silvers
- fitting of a tongue-tie for To Catch a Thief
- wearing of a visor by Stressfree
All those who ran in the UK last time out raced either 10 or 23 days ago, but Machete's last run in France for Fabrice Chappet was some eight months ago and it's not inconceivable that he might need the run. He's also one of four (along with Bill Silvers, Arthur's Realm & Alpha Crucis) yet to win at today's trip, whilst the field has no previous Redcar wins. That said only Bystander and Stressfree have raced here once each!
Half of the field have decent place form on soft ground, but unusually for French imports, that's not the case for Machete and seeing as he hasn't raced for eight months, has lost his last seven since a win fourteen months ago, has no win at the trip and doesn't appear to 'get' soft ground, I'm crossing his name off here.
Also based on place form, I'm doubtful about To Catch A Thief, Bill Silvers and especially Lord Protector, so that leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 10, so I should still be covered in the event of any draw bias! The in-form Maghlaak is also the main eyecatcher from Instant Expert above, but Qitaal's numbers are good as are those of bottom-weight Alpha Crucis.
I referred to a potential draw bias above, so I've checked past similar races and they say...
...and based on that data, I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias overall. The mid drawn 4 wins from 78 doesn't make a lot of sense when either side you have 10 wins and 9 wins, but I should point out that stall 1 alone has 6 wins and 2 further places from 23 runs, so that skews things a little and might be good news for Qitaal. The fact that there's not a great deal of difference in the place stats helps to bring me to the little/no bias conclusion, but I suspect that our feature of the day, PACE, will be of more help.
Here's how those 23 races above have been won...
...with prominent/leading runners clearly coming out on top, which based on this field's most recent efforts looks like even more good news for Qitaal...
Summary
The in-form Maghlaak and pace-setting Qitaal look like the most likely ones here and they were only a neck apart last time out. Qitaal is a pound better off here, but Maghlaak was running for the first time in almost a year, so both should technically go better here, which might result in another narrow defeat for Qitaal. I'm not sure how they'll finish, of course, but I suspect it will be tight again and Qitaal offers more value at 6/1* than Maghlaak at 7/2* , I suppose.
As for the final place, Bystander (9/2*) has to be considered from his pace profile, but I think Alpha Crucis might be the one, despite often being slow away. He was actually third behind Maghlaak and Qitaal 23 days ago, just 1.25 lengths off the pace and whilst Qitaal is a pound better off with Maghlaak here, Alpha Crucis is 2lbs better off with Qitaal, which could be interesting and at 13/2*, he's borderline E/W territory for me.
*odds taken from Bet365 & Hills at 5.00pm Sunday
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