A few months back, I looked at the performance of horses on their next start having had their last race at the Cheltenham Festival, writes Dave Renham. I will revisit that idea in this post but the focus now is on horses that raced last time out at Royal Ascot. Royal Ascot finished on Saturday so now is a great time to examine the numbers.

The data was taken from 2009 to 2024 (prior to this year's Ascot meeting), and profits and losses were calculated to Betfair Starting Price less a 5% commission.

All runners

Looking at all runners coming from Royal Ascot on their next start – they have scored 14% of the time with losses to BSP of 10 pence in the £.

Finishing position at Royal Ascot

My first detailed port of call is where the horse finished in their race at the Royal meeting. Let’s see the splits:

 

 

Last time out (LTO) winners and runners-up score better than one win in five on their follow-up run. LTO winners from two stables should be noted – firstly, Royal Ascot winners from the Aidan O’Brien stable have gone on to score next time 22 times from 55 runs (SR 36.4%) for a profit of £5.26 (ROI +9.6%; A/E 1.00). The Gosden stable has produced similar figures with 12 wins from 38 (SR 31.6%) for a profit of £3.95 (ROI +10.4%; ROI 0.98).

LTO runners-up have edged into profit, but this is down to one huge-priced winner (BSP 75.0), which completely skews the figures. Ultimately, finding an edge from where they finished in their Ascot race seems complicated.

One interesting comparison to make is between the performance of horses that beat more than half of their Royal Ascot rivals (excluding winners) and those who beat fewer than half of them. Below is a graph comparing win and each way (win & placed) strike rates for both groups:

 

 

As you can see, horses that finished in the top 50% of runners in their Ascot race have completely outperformed those that did not in strike rate (both win and each way). They would also have lost you 6p less for every £1 bet compared to the 0 to 49% group.

Digging a bit deeper, if we restrict this 50% to 99% group to those that ran in Royal Ascot handicaps, these 1360 qualifiers would have turned a profit of £84.50 (ROI +6.2%). These handicap stats are not hugely skewed by the winning prices either.

 

Course (next time)

Course data next. Which courses fare better than others when Royal meeting runners visit on their follow-up run? Here are the courses that have had at least 100+ qualifying runners:

 

 

Five courses have turned a profit: Chester, the Curragh, Haydock, Newbury, and York. The Newbury results include three winners priced between 40.0 and 60.0 BSP, so this profit figure can be ignored. Meanwhile, York had a massive 200.0 BSP winner, so this is the second course to have unreliable BSP profit figures. Sticking with York, horses that raced next time at the York Ebor meeting in August have an abysmal record with just 17 winners from 210 (SR 8.1%) for a BSP loss of £90.07 (ROI -42.9%). The A/E index stands at an extremely low 0.60. The other three ‘positive’ courses (Chester, the Curragh, and Haydock) have not had their results badly skewed, and visits to these courses after Royal Ascot can be viewed as a positive. Haydock figures, I would say, are the most reliable as they managed a profit to Industry SP.

The Goodwood next time stats are poor. Most of these qualifiers appeared at Glorious Goodwood – 724 of the 768 runners. Of these, just 78 won at the Goodwood Festival for losses of £190.40 (ROI -26.3%). Personally, I would ignore the vast majority of LTO Royal Ascot runners reappearing at Glorious Goodwood.

Before moving on, it looks best to disregard horses that switched from the turf of Ascot to the all-weather on their next start, as their combined figures read a disappointing 52 wins from 369 runs (SR 14.1%) for hefty losses of £133.56 (ROI -36.2%).

 

Days since the Ascot run

Let me now examine the performance of these Royal Ascot runners based on how quickly they return to the track. Below is a graph mapping their A/E indices:

 

 

Horses returning to the track between 8 and 14 days later have provided the best value. So, keep an eye on them in the next few days. On average, per year, 40 to 45 horses return to the track within that time frame. They have won just over 18% of their follow-up starts. They have not been profitable if backing ‘blind’, but they are horses that undoubtedly require a second glance. Horses off the track for more than four months (121 days +) have offered the poorest value and have the lowest strike rate amongst all groups.

 

Class Change

A look at Change in Class of race next – here are the splits:

 

 

Clearly, horses dropped in class have by far the best record, with comfortably the best strike rate and losses at just 4.1% compared with 17.7% and 19.9%, respectively.

 

Trainers

It's time to look at the performance of trainers. A tiny proportion of horses switch trainers after Royal Ascot, so the data I am sharing is based on trainer results, with horses running for the same stable as they did at the Royal meeting. Here are all trainers with at least 70 LTO Royal Ascot qualifiers. They are in order by win-strike rate:

 

 

Two trainers have impressive A/E indices, with horses having their first start after Royal Ascot: Bin Suroor (1.19) and Fahey (1.06). Runners from both stables are worth keeping a close eye out for. Five trainers have made a profit, but to try and avoid big-priced winners skewing the figures, let me show the performance of the trainers above if we restrict their runners to those who started in the top four of the betting on their next start:

 

 

This table is a better one to concentrate on from a trainer's perspective. The top six have some excellent stats regarding strike rate – all have proved profitable, and four (Bin Suroor, Cox, Fahey, and Beckett) have A/E indices above 1.00. It is interesting to see Charlie Appleby's very modest figures, as he is usually a trainer who has excellent stats.

 

Additional Stats

1. Horses whose SP was 7/2 or shorter at Royal Ascot have gone on next time to win 83 times from 302 runners (SR 27.5%) for a minimal loss of £4.58 (ROI -1.5%).

2. In contrast to the first additional stat, horses whose SP was 40/1 or bigger at Royal Ascot have won next time 166 times from 1679 runners (SR 9.9%) for significant BSP losses of £323.47 (ROI +19.3%).

3. 2yos beaten more than five lengths at Royal Ascot have struggled next time out, scoring 15.9% of the time and losing over 23p in the £ to BSP. Compare this to the 2yo winners from the Royal meeting who have gone on to win over 30% next time out, losing just 3p in the £.

4. 3yo Royal Ascot winners have gone on to win next time in 35 races from 148 starts (SR 23.7%) for a break-even situation.

**

 

Conclusion

It is challenging to make blind profits using a specific angle from LTO Royal Ascot competitors. However, based on all the findings, I feel LTO handicappers are worth keeping a close eye on as long as they didn't win and beat at least 50% of their Royal Ascot rivals. Several will pop up and win next time, many going under the radar.

Regarding trainers, Saeed Bin Suroor and Richard Fahey head my list, with Ralph Beckett and Clive Cox close behind. This is especially true if their Royal Ascot runners start in the top four of the betting next time.

Horses heading to Haydock after Ascot and those making their trips to Chester and the Curragh have done well. I would be wary of any Royal Ascot runner reappearing for the first time subsequently at Glorious Goodwood or the York Ebor meeting.

Horses dropping in class are far more likely to win than those which do not. Finally, horses returning to the track 8 to 14 days after their Royal Ascot spin are the best-performing group regarding time off since their Ascot run.

-DR