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Alpinista edges out Makawee in thrilling Goodwood finish

Last year’s Yorkshire Oaks runner-up Alpinista began the new campaign with a hard-fought victory over Makawee in the British Stallion Studs EBF Daisy Warwick Fillies’ Stakes at Goodwood.

Five lengths behind Love at York in August, she signed off for the campaign with a narrow defeat in a Group Three at Newmarket and was sent off the 13-8 favourite against just three rivals, one of whom, Oriental Mystique, is also owned by Kirsten Rausing.

Makawee set out to make all under James Doyle, but Luke Morris looked to have him covered as he moved his Alpinista alongside.

However, Makawee stuck to her task gamely and Morris had to get pretty serious with Sir Mark Prescott’s filly, who eventually scrambled home by a short head with Oriental Mystique a length back in third.

“The plan was to make all today, but James was quite keen to go on, so I was quite happy to take a close sit,” Morris told Racing TV.

“When I finally drew up to him at the two pole I was fairly confident I had his measure, but fair play to the runner-up, she was very brave.

“My filly is probably a gallop or two short of her best on her homework and she was just a bit ring-rusty when I went for her.

“Hopefully there’s plenty of improvement in her going forwards.

“Miss Rausing’s horses generally come into their own with time. We had the dam (Alwilda) at Sir Mark’s and she improved with age, so I’d like to think this filly will take a similar path.

“There’s stamina in the pedigree, but being by Frankel, there’s a bit more speed in there. Sir Mark will come up with a plan.

“She was second to Love in the Yorkshire Oaks and the programme sort of marks itself out for a filly like that.”

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

4.05 Musselburgh : Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders until halfway, close up, ridden over 3f out, kept on same pace) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Escalade @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, the racecard has lots of indicators for us...

Starting with a 3 yr old (obviously) filly in decent enough nick, finishing in the frame in all three starts this season (all at this trip, twice at this level but also once at class 3). She has one win from six so far, also at this grade and ridden by today's jockey, also on a left handed track.

Our trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, has 14, 30 and C5 next to his name, suggesting his horses are running well right now and have also fared well at this venue in the past, whilst jockey Ryan Tate's 30 shows he has been amongst the winners too and then the subsequent trainer jockey combo stats show a prolonged period of success, all of which gives me a good feeling of at least getting a run for my money.

The above strike rates (20%+), A/E figures (1.25+) and IV score (1.50+) are all very impressive and when creating angles to follow, those are my own personal starting points. In fact with IV scores all north of 2.0 and plenty of profit, these are really good numbers, but you can see that for yourself.

So, what can I add that you might not already know?

Well, I believe that 1m4f is a bit of a specialist trip and since the start of 2017 at odds ranging from 7/4 to 15/2, our trainer's runners are 11 from 45 (24.4% SR) for 17.3pts (+38.4% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 18.8pts (+56.9%) during June to September
  • 9/31 (29%) for 18.1pts (+58.5%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 6.6pts (+34.7%) at Class 5
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 4.23pts (+24.9%) at 6-20 dslr
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.8pts (+85.3%) with females...

...whilst in sub-£4k races during June-Sept, they are 9 from 23 (39.1% SR) for 26.1pts (+113.6% ROI), including 4/11 (36.4%) at C5, 4/10 (40%) at 6-20 dslr and 3/8 (37.5%) with females...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Escalade @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!