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Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th September

HAYDOCK - SEPTEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £2,739.60 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 7 (Time Chaser) & 2 (Empress Ali)

Leg 2 (1.50): 5 (Learn By Heart), 3 (Dex Ex Bee) & 2 (Dark Acclaim)

Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Tasleet), 1 (Brando) & 11 (Spirit Of Valour)

Leg 4 (3.00): 10 (Soie D’Leau), 12 (Mayleaf Shine) & 6 (Aleef)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Morando) & 2 (Victory Bond)

Leg 6 (4.10): 3 (Jaameh),10 (Sepal) & 11 (Compton Mill)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: The main advice today is simply to bet for fun, with yours truly not expecting potential investors to stake much more that their minimum risks on ground today which will probably look appalling by the end of play.  The Placepot advice above is ONLY offered because of my success yesterday, never wishing to ask readers to invest more that they can afford.  For this reason I would urge you where possibly to team with a friend or two and stake accordingly on a day when fun should far outweigh risk.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that TIME CHASER and EMPRESS ALI should get us safely through to the second leg between them, with Company Asset offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position. Horses filled the frame at 12/1-14/1-12/1, setting up a great (£2,739.60) Placepot dividend straight away!

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

7-3-9 (9 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the first race:

1/2—Reach For The Stars (soft)

2/6—Intense Tango (good to soft)

 

1.50: The main protagonists have all won on soft ground whilst the going will be even worse form what we have read overnight.  Ladbrokes have had to trim back LEARN BY HEART, the ‘magic sign’ having been out of line with the other main layers overnight.  4/1 still looks a reasonable price but that said on this ground, I’m just content to give the Haggas representative his Placepot chance alongside DEX EX BEE and DARK ACCLAIM in a race that should provide a lot of clues for next season.

Favourite factor: Nine market leaders to date (via eight renewals) in which five gold medals have been secured alongside two of the silver variety.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-3 (6 ran-soft)

1-3 (5 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

6-4 (5 ran-good to soft)

1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-8 (5 ran-good)

1-2 (6 ran-soft)

Haydock record of runners in the second event:

1/2—Veejay (good)

 

2.25: Nine of the last fifteen winners have been returned in double figures in this Group 1 event, which certainly confirms my feelings that sprinting at the top level has left a lot to be desired for a number of years.  Three-year-olds have held the call during the last twelve years having claimed six gold medals, which offers all of us a semblance of hope in terms of potential stars of the future emerging in races at the ‘top level’.  Three-year-old SPIRIT OF VALUE is the each way value for money call at 25/1 with three leading firms this morning (Bet365, Hills & Paddy Power) whilst of the more likely winners of the contest, BRANDO and TASLEET make most appeal.  If Blue Point handles the ground, Charlie Appleby’s raider could also be expected to outrun his 14/1 quote, though conditions are entirely an unknown factor as far as the Shamardal colt is concerned.  I have not been right once about The Tin Man as yet because I have missed out on all his victories, whilst he has run below his best when I have supported the five-year-old.  For the record I’m against him today, so you know what to do accordingly!

Favourite factor: Six of the last 19 favourites have prevailed, though just two of the other 13 market leaders have claimed additional toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-6-7 (14 ran-soft)

5-16-6 (15 ran-good to soft)

10-18-13 (17 ran-good)

2-14-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (13 ran-firm)

9-15-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

14-7-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

13-12-8 (14 ran-good to soft)

Race was contested at Doncaster in 2008--draw stats do not apply

6-1-7 (14 ran-good to firm)

10-3-4 (11 ran-heavy)

4-17-7 (17 ran-good)

14-5-4 (19 ran-good)

7-5-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

10-7-11 (14 ran-good to firm)

9-6-10 (12 ran-heavy)

7-12-3 (13 ran-heavy)

16-10-5 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (13 ran-good)

9-3-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Brando (soft)

1/3—Magical Memory (good to firm)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good to firm)

1/1—Harry Angel (firm)

 

3.00: Three of the last seven renewals have been won by three-year-olds, whilst horses drawn high have done well under slow conditions.  Last year’s winner SOIE D’LEAU looks sure to be a popular horse having won the race twelve months ago on ground, whilst Silvestre De Sousa has been booked to ride.  7/1 is available almost right across the board, though the 11/2 quote by Bet Stars looks more realistic from my viewpoint. Stall 10/13 should be fine given the conditions (check the stats below), whereas the trio of three-year-olds have all been drawn low, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be MAYLEAF SHINE (trap six).  ALEEF looks a tad too big at 14/1 having been beaten as a market leader earlier in the week when needing the run.  Jim Crowley takes the ride and David O’Meara’s raider completes my trio against the field from stall eleven.

Favourite factor: Just three of the last nineteen renewals have been won by favourites, whilst 12 of the 2 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  Eight of the last fifteen winners have been returned in double figures.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

12-16-10 (12 ran-soft)

5-10-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

4-6-5 (11 ran- good)

8-10-11 (10 ran-good to soft)

13-15-9 (14 ran--firm)

1-8-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

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7-2-16 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-6-7-3 (16 ran-good to soft)

11-10-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-7-2 (10 ran-heavy)

6-8-12 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12-6 (16 ran-good)

6-16-8 (15 ran-good to soft)

5-21-10-3 (23 ran-good to firm)

6-8-7-10 (21 ran-heavy)

8-9-5-7 (16 ran-heavy)

10-8-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

13-8-9 (12 ran-good)

Haydock record of runners in the fourth race:

1/3—Soie D’Leau (soft)

2/14—Confessional (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Midnight Malibu (good)

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, statistics which include the lone vintage representative in 2012 (Thistle Bird) which won at 3/1.  Vintage representatives are around the 9/4 mark to extend the good run before form is taken into account, with MORANDO marginally preferred to VICTORY BOND at the time of writing.  Benbati steps down in trip but least we know he will see out the mile which is more than we know about others in the contest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six (3/1-3/1-11/4-15/8-15/8-11/10) winners during the study period. That said, search parties are still to looking for the unplaced (Richard Hannon trained) 10/11 market leader who let punters down in 2013.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-7-2 (8 ran-soft)

4-2 (7 ran-soft)

6-1 (6 ran-good)

4-10-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (7 ran-firm)

1-9-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-6-7 (8 ran-good)

1-3-4 (10 ran-soft)

9-1-8 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-3 (5 ran-heavy)

3-2-4 (11 ran-good)

5-9-1 (8 ran-good)

5-6 (5 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the fifth event:

1/4—Mitchum Swagger (soft)

2/3—You’re Fired (good & good to soft)

1/1—Rusumaat (firm)

 

4.10: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured seven of the last twelve contests, whilst four-year-olds have claimed four of the last eight renewals. The ground might be pretty desperate by the time the flag falls on the last leg of our favourite wager whereby the weight trends might have to be viewed with a little more caution than usual.  Mark Johnston’s JAAMEH looks sure to give Jim Crowley another good ride this afternoon, the heavy ground course winner looking to stay on when others have cried enough.  Mark’s four-year-old has the steadier of 9-6 but with recent winners all having carried plenty of weight, JAAMEH is one of the more interesting wagers on the card at around the 15/2 mark.  Certainly, I don’t expect the 9/1 quotes by Bet365 and BetVictor to last long this morning.  Fellow four-year-old SEPAL must go close too, possibly alongside COMPTON MILL and MY REWARD.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won to date via 16 renewals, whilst 13 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Haydock record of runners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—My Reward (good to soft)

1/4—Tawdeea (soft)

1/2—Jaameh (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Haydock card (two or more) on Saturday – followed by their ratios and profit/loss figures over the first two days of the meeting:

7 runners—Mark Johnston (0/2)

6—Tim Easterby (0/5)

4—Richard Fahey (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

4—Kevin Ryan (0/3)

3—John Gosden

3—William Haggas (0/2)

3—David O’Meara (0/4)

2—Charlie Appleby (0/1)

2—Andrew Balding (1/1 +4)

2—Michael Bell

2—Karl Burke (0/5)

2—Robert Cowell

2—Michael Dods

2—Iain Jardine (0/2)

2—Aidan O’Brien

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £373.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Thirsk: £79.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Stratford: £134.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Kempton: £53.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £73.50 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 1st September

SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £49.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 5 (The Golden Cue), 8 (Kodiac Express) & 7 (Onefootinparadise)

Leg 2 (2.10): 4 (Our Lord), 1 (Babyfact) & 6 (Gnaad)

Leg 3 (2.45): 5 (Emaraaty) & 1 (Beachwalk)

Leg 4 (3.20): 1 (Bathsheba Bay), 8 (Graffiti Master) & 14 (Zaajer)

Leg 5 (3.55): 1 (Archetype), 6 (Robin Weathers) & 3 (Elucidation)

Leg 6 (4.25): 1 (Hellfire) & 4 (Anastazia)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: THE GOLDEN CUE tackles much faster ground here than was the case relating to his course and distance win the last day.  That said, ‘trap two’ gives Steph Hollinshead’s Zebedee gelding a fine chance to re-enact a front running performance here last month which resulted in a facile five length success.  The ground tends to retain more moisture up this five furlong chute at Sandown than over the round course whereby conditions might not be too fast for the March foal, certainly from a Placepot perspective.  KODIAC EXPRESS would been considered a big threat but for his stall 11 position, whilst ONEFOOTINPARADISE completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on a Sandown card which has bits and pieces of history relating to different fixtures down the years.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—The Golden Cue (soft)

 

2.10: Well over half of the 69 winners sent out by Malcolm Saunders during the last five years have registered their successes at Bath/Salisbury, though two have scored at this Esher venue, one of which is BABYFACT who recorded a fast ground course and distance victory 13 months ago.  The impressive five pound claimer Georgia Cox negates most the penalty dished out for her recent Bath success and OUR LORD will know he has been in a race I’ll wager, despite his even money quote this morning.  OUR LORD escapes a penalty for having completed a hat trick last time out, whereby you can understand why layers are hesitant to offer much more than 6/5 about his chance.  GNAAD has attracted money overnight, possibly having something to do with the fact that Alan Bailey has sent out two of his last four runners to winning effect.  Paddy Power’s 10/1 quote might not last long this morning.

Favourite factor: Both three-year-old 7/2 favourites have finished out with the washing to date behind successful five-year-old raider who scored at 7/1 & 11/2.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Babyfact (good to firm)

1/5—Secret Asset (good to firm)

 

2.45: You can ignore the 5/1 trade press quote about the well entered John Gosden newcomer EMARAATY this morning, with quotes between 7/4 and 9/4 in evidence at the time of writing.  I won’t go overboard about those prices because unraced horses can make a fool of us all, given that the market has yet to develop in terms of the amount of equity involved.  Sir Michael Stoute has his team in great form (four of his last seven runners have won) whereby the chance of BEACHWALK is also respected.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have won this event, with market leaders coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.  The last eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1.  That said, the last four favourites that failed to win their respective events also missed out on Placepot positions.

 

3.20: High on numbers but short on potential winners according to the lack of overnight activity, heat two of the previous race looks set to be dominated by BATHSHEBA BAY and GRAFFITI MASTER, if we take brief trading on the exchanges seriously.  Richard Hannon (BATHSHEBA BAY) has saddled seven of his last 18 runners to winning effect whilst like Beachwalk in the previous contest, Ryan Moore has been booked to ride.  Although ZAAJER has drifted with a couple of firms as I home in on the second half of this fixture, it would be foolish to write off the chance of the Owen Burrows Shamardal colt, with the trainer having won with five of his last 10 runners during a period in which he also snared the silver medal with two of his beaten representatives.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous (seven furlong) contest on the card.

 

3.55: I offered Far Dawn as a decent each way bet at Bath on Thursday before Simon Crisford’s raider finished third at 14/1.  Similarly, I can’t let the 9/1 BetVictor quote about course winner ARCHITYPE slip my without having a win and place investment, albeit to moderate stakes.  Simon is another trainer who has his team in good form and his course winner is the first name on my team sheet, albeit closely followed by the likes of ROBIN WEATHERS and ELUCIDATION who more than deserve their respective places in a typically intriguing Sandown contest.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Sandown programme.

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Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Archetype (good to firm)

 

4.25: Five of Hughie Morrison’s last eight runners have secured Placepot positions, two of them winning their respective events at odds of 9/2 & 4/5*. Available at 4/1 with three leading firms, I doubt that bookmakers will allow the Archipenko filly HELLFIRE to drift to a ‘bet to nothing’ price which offers a ‘free’ each way bet at 5/1 or more, given that investors would receive their stakes back in full, even if the four-year-old only manages to finished second or third in this 10 runner event.  The fact that ANASTAZIA has contested 10/25 races at Yarmouth is considered as something of a negative factor though that said, trainer Paul D’Arcy also has seven Newmarket results to take into account for his five-year-old mare whereby we can (hopefully) deduce that he has targeted races close to home with this inmate more often than not.  Either way, the fact the ANASTAZIA has finished ‘in the three’ in 14 races in all events suggests she is rarely far away, especially when taking into account 14 assignments when the Kyllachy mare has finished fourth!

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third of the new races on Sandown’s card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Hannon (6/40 – loss of 10 points)

3—John Gosden (3/20 – loss of 3 points)

3—Brian Meehan (3/12 – slight profit)

2—Ralph Beckett (1/13 – loss of 7 points)

2—Jim Boyle (1/6 +7)

2—Mick Channon (1/6 +4)

2—Jane Chapple-Hyam (No previous runners this season at Sandown)

2—Clive Cox (3/20 +9)

2—Iain Furtado (No previous runners)

2—Brett Johnson (0/1)

2—William Muir (0/4)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/9)

2—Amanda Perrett (0/7)

2—Malcolm Saunders (0/1)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (6/16 +21)

2—Ed Walker (0/4)

2—Ian Williams (1/6 +2)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

80 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Thirsk: £124.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Bangor: £71.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st August

WINDSOR - AUGUST 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £23.60 (6 favourites - 5 winners & 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 1 (Snazzy Jazzy) & 4 (Qianlong)

Leg 2 (5.50): 7 (Eskendash), 10 (Essenaitch) & 9 (Glorious Poet)

Leg 3 (6.20): 4 (UAE Queen), 5 (Medicean Ballet) & 7 (Snow Squaw)

Leg 4 (6.50): 6 (Ice Age), 1 (Stake Acclaim) & 4 (Spring Loaded)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Maazel), 10 (Liberatum) & 5 (Peace Dreamer)

Leg 6 (7.50): 3 (Ennjaaz) & 7 (Turnpike Trip)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Windsor - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.20: This is another of the ‘new’ races installed by the BHA because of its change of status (now a novice race instead of an ordinary maiden event.  Roger Varian has won with six of his last eleven runners and the ratio could improve today, albeit the popular trainer has six runners entered up, four of which run here at Windsor.  QIANLONG is the first representative on the card and there was plenty to like about his runner up effort at Nottingham on his first day at school.  That said, the ground was heavy at Colwick Park that day whereby he might need every one of the six pound concession from SNAZZY JAZZY who gained his debut victory under today’s projected (good) conditions at Goodwood.  There was rain on the radar at the time I checked Windsor this morning at 3.30 but that is (seemingly) due to clear for the rest of the day at first light.  Society Power demands a market check as the day progresses from your perspective, given that I have to play my cards much earlier this morning as far as this column is concerned.

Favourite factor: To be fair, I have clung on to the trends in these events because the change has been minimum (nothing at times). That said, this event had changed in grade whereby I am including the trend for the last time so this time next year, I will only be showing today’s result. The six favourites to date have secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety if you (conveniently) ignore the slight alteration.

 

5.50: Although ESKENDASH has only won once thus far, Pam Sly’s gelding has finished ‘in the two’ on six of his seven assignments whereby the trade press quote of 13/2 looks wide of the mark.  Yes, the success was gained away from turf whilst Adam Kirby’s mount comes to the gig as a beaten favourite.  That said, these rivals do not make a habit of winning either and with the selection being far less exposed than most, ESKENDASH would be classed as a ‘knocking’ each way bet if you could secure 5/1, though I doubt bookmakers will be that generous.  Punters do not always understand that when layers price up these events, bookmakers will do everything they can to protect their place liabilities when quoting the relevant odds.  I suspect you will be doing well to obtain 9/2 whereby you will suffer a slight loss should Pam’s raider finish in the frame without winning.  The race is (otherwise) full of imponderables, whereby speculative Placepot investors could include ESSENAITCH and GLORIOUS POET, hoping that hoses with far more Placepot units finish out with the washing.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Captain Peacock (good)

1/2—Michael’s Mount (good to soft)

1/3—Outback Blue (good)

1/8—Essenaitch (good to soft)

 

6.20: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight (and eight of the last ten) contests, with vintage representatives UAE QUEEN and MEDICEAN BALLET appearing to hold strong Placepot chances, the pair being listed in order of preference.  UAE QUEEN is the second of the Roger Varian runners on the card, whilst Henry Candy (Medicean Ballet) has saddled three horses to claim Placepot positions at the meeting during the last five years, albeit Henry’s runners have all been beaten from a win perspective.  There will be worse outsiders to consider on the card than SNOW SQUAW I’ll wager, with David Elsworth’s Excelebration filly vying for a place in my Placepot mix at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and two joint favourites have secured this prize during the last eleven years, whilst 11 of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

1/2—High On Love (good to firm)

1/5—Fastnet Spin (soft)

 

6.50: ICE AGE looks set to be sent off at a bigger price than when finishing third in this race last year when beaten four and a quarter lengths from stall 10.  Drawn slight wider (11) tonight, ICE AGE still represents the win and place call from my viewpoint, given that the relevant three pound claimer nearly negates what would have been an inferior differential compared to twelve months ago.  A winner here over course and distance last time to qualify for this finale of the series, ICE AGE carries a five pound penalty accordingly, though the four-year-old is still marginally preferred to STAKE ACCLAIM and SPRING LOADED at the prices on offer.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/1 favourite finished nearer last than first in a race in which the frame was filled by horses returned at 7/1, 16/1 & 9/1 (Ice Age).

Record of the course winners in the main event on the card. 

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2/5—Stake Acclaim (good & soft)

1/5--Upstaging (good)

1/2—Spring Loaded (good)

1/3--Atletico (good to soft)

2/6—Ice Age (good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—Parnassian (good to firm)

1/3—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Goring (good)

1/4—Major Pusey (good to soft)

2/6—Englishman (good & soft)

 

7.20: Each way support had arrived overnight for Ruth Carr’s northern raider LIBERATUM and PEACE DREAMER by the time I came to look at this event and with nothing else to work with, this pair will be included in my Placepot equation alongside MAAZEL, who is the last of the sextet of Varian representatives today.  First time blinkers would only need to bring about a modicum of improvement in Roger’s Elzaam gelding to take him very close in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Windsor programme.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager: 

1/4—Sandfrankskipsgo (good to firm)

1/3—Awesome Allan (soft)

 

7.50:  Three-year-olds invariably get the better of their older rivals in these mixed vintage maiden events and the trend should be extended here with Saeed Bin Suroor’s newcomer ENNJAAZ having been declared alongside TURNPIKE TRIP and LEWINSKY.  Henry Candy appears to have found an easier opportunity for TURNPIKE TRIP, albeit Dane O’Neill’s mount enters my ‘last chance saloon’ this evening.  ENNJAAZ will be Saeed’s third winner in a row if he can land the spoils at the first time of asking, with Pat Cosgrave having waited since the opening race for only his second ride at the meeting.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 market leader duly obliged.  8/13 does not make a lot of sense to many people outside of the sport and even some inside the sport of kings.  If ever odds fail to make any sense, simply grab a calculator and in this case divide 8 by 13 to give you the sum of .615.  Simply add a point to that total and divide 100 by 1.615 to give you the correct percentage of 61.9%.  If you believe the horse, greyhound or football team has a 65% chance of winning any event you should play at odds of 8/13.  If (before you did the math) you only rated the relevant chance at 55%, keep your cash under lock and key.  There is nothing complicated about it all really.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Win & place format for relevant represented trainers (Five year study period relating to the corresponding meeting) at Windsor tonight:

Trainers with at least 1 winner and 2 placed horses

Gary Moore – 3 winners (5/1, 11/10* & 8/11*) & 2 placed – 1 runner tonight:

100/1 chance Sampaquita (7.50)

‘Team Hannon’ – 1 winner (5/2*) + 4 places – 4 runners tonight: Heidi (5.20), Boucie (5.50), Carducci (6.20) & Tomily (6.50)

 

Trainers who failed to saddle a winner but who have had at least three horses placed:

Henry Candy – 3 placed horses 7/1, 3/1 & 7/4) – 3 runners tonight: Medicean Bullet (6.20), Beck And Call (7.20) & Turnpike Trip (7.50)

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Lingfield: £6.60 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed

Thirsk: £8.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Hexham: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 15th August

FFOS LAS – APRIL 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Ffos Las: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Zambesi Queen), 8 (Topmeup) & 7 (Diminutive)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Indomeneo) & 3 (Isle Of Man)

Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Liva), 4 (Simply Breathless), 2 (Ventura Dragon) & 3 (Airshow)

Leg 4 (3.45): 10 (Ancient Longing) & 6 (Hawridge Flyer)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Katabatika) & 4 (Trauttman)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Catcher On The Go), 5 (Moabit) & 8 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: DIMINUTIVE is the only course winner in the field and the fact that the victory was gained under soft conditions suggests that the Fast Company representative might outrun her 25/1 price tag at the time of writing.  That said, more logical winners in the line up include ZAMBEZI QUEEN and TOPMEUP.  Paul Cole (ZAMBEZI QUEEN) has sent out two of his last three runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: There is no history attached to this meeting

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/8—Diminutive (soft)

 

2.45: Try as hard as I might, I cannot find a previous runner for Richard Fahey at this venue whereby the declaration of his INDOMENEO makes for interesting reading.  A winner of two of his last three assignments, Richard’s Piccolo colt has the benefit of a seven pound claimer to reduce the welter 9-13 burden.  Clive Cox appears to have found a decent opportunity for his Exceed And Excel newcomer ISLE OF MAN who is well related in terms of previous winners.  Clive’s late (April 29) foal is preferred to Livingstones Quest as the main danger to the tentative selection.

 

3.15: Given the way that Placepot dividends are greatly enhanced by ‘win only’ events (for obvious reasons), it would be churlish to try and pick over the form issues of the four runners in this contest.  The general advice is usually to include all four runners in your permutation before retiring to the bar, in the hope that the horse with the least units prevails, a scenario which is not as infrequent as you might imagine. This is (of course) an expensive way of being involved with your bet today but if we are playing up winnings (as is the case from Windsor last night), the speculative option is most certainly the way to proceed.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Liva (good)

 

3.45: Following no less than 41 assignments under the other code of our favourite sport, STILL BELIEVING makes his flat debut this afternoon, though the distance slightly short of a mile and a half raises the odd eyebrow or two in this dwelling.  Support for the Evan Williams raider throughout the day would change my mind but given that I do not have that option via this service, I prefer to stick with ANCIENT LONGING and HAWRIDGE FLYER.  Either way, this pair should see us safely through to the next leg, whilst confirming that I would not get involved in this race other than the Placepot investment.

 

4.15: Hughie Morrison’s Inmates are running well enough from an each way perspective of late, though winners elude the team just now, whereby I would only accommodate KATABATIKA in Placepot terms, preferring to swerve the contest as far as selecting a winner is concerned.  TRAUTTMAN is presumably named after the famous Manchester City goalkeeper who would put today’s ‘starlets’ to shame in terms of feigning injury and all the other antics that ‘professional’ players get up to these days.  Bert played the last 17 minutes of the 1956 Cup Final (when men were men) with a broken neck to protect his team’s 3-1 lead and was eventually awarded the CBE for his services to football.  I digress, eventually wishing to include TRAUTTMAN in my Placepot permutation this afternoon.

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4.45: An interesting sixth leg which suggests that the skinny 5/4 odds about VEILED SECRET might be worth passing up, a view which Bet365 obviously agree by going out on a limb at 6/4 at the time of writing.  In case the difference between the two prices don’t appear to be that different, it’s worth pointing out that the differential between the quote is similar to a horse being backed down from 9/1 to 6/1.  Paul Nicholls has won with six of his last 17 runners, with his representative MOABIT having won four of her eight races on the level thus far.  STERNRUBIN has split the layers in terms of the price of the projected second favourite (anything between 7/2 and 5/1), whilst the declarations of CATCHER ON THE GO and THISTIMENEXTYEAR add interest to proceedings.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Catcher On The Go (heavy)

1/2—Nabhan (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ffos Las card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—David Evans (1/13 – loss of 9 points)

3—Peter Bowen (1/1 – Profit of 3 points)

3—Hughie Morrison (0/2)

3—Evan Williams (2/13 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Clive Cox (0/3)

2—Nickki Evans (2/29 – loss of 9 points)

2—Richard Fahey (No previous runners)

2—Stuart Kittow (0/1)

2—Dan Kubler (0/1)

2—John McConnell (1/3 – slight loss)

2—Rod Millman (0/2)

2—Richard Price (0/2)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Nottingham: £120.60 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Thirsk: £31.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 5th August

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £93.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 8 (Rasheeq), 3 (The Wagon Wheel), 17 (Scorching Heat) & 13 (Pettochside)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Platitude), 4 (Mainstream) & 6 (Sir Chauvelin)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Mount Moriah) & 2 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Donhaun Triumphant), 7 (Projection), 10 (Raucous), 26 (Sir Dancealot) & 14 (Polybius)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Bathsheba Bay) & 10 (Rogue)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Taamol) & 2 (Medahim)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: A few things to muse over for starters today.  I believe it was a mistake to move the ‘Nassau Stakes’ to a midweek slot, with several leading trainers seemingly agreeing as they ‘boycott’ the meeting today.  Yes, the ground played its part in that, but John Gosden, Aiden O’Brien and many others are missing which takes the gloss of the final day of the fixture from my perspective.  I must also mention the name David Nicholls (sorely missed as a character), especially with Dandy having snared eight of the eighteen winners of this event down the years.  Upwards and onward by informing that nine of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5 and I offer a ‘short list’ of RASHEEQ, THE WAGON WHEEL, PETTOCHSIDE and SCORCHING HEAT accordingly.  The each way chance for Gin In The Inn is also there for all to see but sitting one pound above the ‘superior’ weight barrier and with Ryan Moore booked to ride, Richard Fahey’s will probably fail to represent value for money.

Favourite factor: Just three of the last fifteen favourites have finished in the frame (no winners) since four consecutive market leaders obliged between 2000 and 2003.

Record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/1—Son Of Africa (good to firm)

3/11—Pettochside (2 x soft & good to soft)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 6-5 via the last 13 renewals of this event, whilst horses carrying a minimum weight of 9-2 have held the call of late the call of late, with seven runners eliminated from the foot of the handicap this time around.  I offer a little note of caution regarding the weight trends on this occasion however because of the continued soft ground conditions. That said, I am a self-confessed ‘anorak’ down to my bones whereby I will adhere to my beliefs, offering up the likes of PLATUTUDE, MAINSTREAM and SIR CHAUVELIN to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager, if we successfully won through the first heat.

Favourite factor: 10 of the 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners) during the last 16 years.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/2—Soldier In Action (good)

1/2—Platitude (good to firm)

1/4—Arch Villain (good to soft)

1/1—Getback In Paris (good to soft)

 

3.00: Sir Michael Stoute boasts nine victories down the years (Electric was his first winner back in 1982 with Greville Starkey in the plate) and many punters will latch onto the chance of CRYSTAL OCEAN who is closely matched with KHALIDI on recent Royal Ascot form.  There is no disputing the fact that this pair will go close, though value for money could lie with the Ralph Beckett’s raider MOUNT MORIA who comes to the gig on a four timer.  Yes, we are talking about recent handicap victories compared to this Group 3 event but the conditions will be a great leveller today and very much proven on the ground, 5/1 is an extremely reasonable price about the Mount Nelson gelding.

Favourite factor:  Market leaders of one description or another have won five of the last ten renewals of the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, whilst the last twelve gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 7/1.

Record of course winners in the Gordon Stakes:

2/2—Khalidi (2 x good)

 

3.35: 14 of the last 21 winners of the Stewards Cup have contested Royal Ascot’s Wokingham Stakes en route to lifting this prize, whist 15 gold medallists during the period hailed from the four and five-year-old ranks (four-year-olds have won six times during the last thirteen years).  Seven of the last twelve winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Taking all the stats and facts into account, my extended ‘short list’ consists of DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT, PROJECTION, RAUCOUS and POLYBIUS.  That said, I would not want to put you off the likes of BRIAN THE SNAIL and SIR DANCELOT who also assisted in the art of ‘head scratching’ during the early hours.

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Favourite factor: Twelve of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured toteplacepot positions which is a phenomenal record in such a competitive event.  Those stats include five successful favourites which equates to market leaders having produced a level stake profit of seventeen points during the last fourteen years.

Record of course winners in the Stewards’ Cup:

1/4—Duke Of Firenze (good)

2/4—Hoof It (2 x good to firm)

1/4—Go Far (good)

 

4.10: 'Team Hannon' has secured four of the last fourteen renewals, statistics which include three of the last ten contests. Richard saddles BATHSHEBA BAY and ROGUE this time around and from a Placepot perspective, I am happy to leave it to the stable companions to represent yours truly in the penultimate leg, given that I have used up plenty of options in earlier races.  That said, DEE EX BEE is the subject of good reports and if you have room in your permutation to add Mark’s late May foal, I would understand the manoeuvre.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions whilst four market leaders prevailed.

 

4.45: Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-9 which eliminates all but two of the runners and given that I have just two options for my permutation, TAAMOL and MEDAHIM are duly elected to use a political phrase.  The latter named raider represents Richard Hannon who has very selective in this runners here at Goodwood since the weather went ‘belly up’ earlier in the week.  The fact that he takes on the favourite TAAMOL suggests that Richard believes that the Kodiac colt can make a race of it at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite during the (19 year) study period, whilst 10 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions since I started researching the contest.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Aventinus (good)

1/1—Colonel Frank (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Represented winning trainers at Goodwood this week with their relevant number of runners on Saturday:

2 winners—Andrew Balding (20/1 & 7/4*) – 3 runners at Goodwood today

2 winners—Richard Hannon (7/1 & 10/3*) – 3 runners

2 winners—Charlie Hills (11/2 & 9/2) – 1 runner

2 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1 & 9/1) – 5 runners

2 winners—David Simcock (50/1 & 8/1) – 1 runner

2 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (7/4* twice) – 5 runners

1 winner—Karl Burke (7/2) – 1 runner

1 winner—David Elsworth (6/1) – 1 runner

1 winner—John Gosden (6/1) – 1 runner

1 winner—Gary Moore (100/1) – 2 runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £811.00 – 6 favourites- 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Hamilton: £78.90 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £35.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Newmarket: £521.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Thirsk: £19.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Friday 4th August

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £150.90 (7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Lord Yeats), 2 (Frontiersman) & 7 (Second Step)

Leg 2 (2.25): 11 (Zainholm), 2 (Beat The Bank) & 5 (Forest Ranger)

Leg 3 (3.00): 22 (Masham Star), 7 (Tony Curtis) & 21 (Sir Roderic)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Profitable) & 6 (Take Cover)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Gift In Time), 11 (Milton Road) & 3 (Carouse)

Leg 6 (4.40): 16 (Tomyris), 13 (Cristal Fizz) & 6 (Sainted)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals, whilst securing 14 of the last 28 available toteplacepot positions. Four-year-olds are around the 8/13 mark to extend their good run from a win perspective, via five representatives on this occasion.  LORD YEATS comes to the gig on a hat trick as a previous soft ground winner which suggests that P J McDonald’s should be the first name on the team sheet.  FRONTIERSMAN cannot be left out of the Placepot mix, whilst Roger Charlton’s first Goodwood runner of the week (SECOND STEP) will not mind the tacky conditions as much as some of the other declarations.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the opening event: 

1/1—Poet’s Word (good to firm)

1/2—Second Step (good to firm)

 

2.25: I was far from certain about the ground for Sir Michael Stoute’s runner in the opening event (Poet’s Word) but ZAINHOLM should get through the sticky stuff well enough in this grade/company to go close.  The 11/2 quotes by PP & ‘Vic’ make some appeal for sure, albeit this is a tough event to assess.  It would be as well for all concerned if the remaining eight runners stand their ground and if so, BEAT THE BANK and FOREST RANGER would complete my trio against the other five contenders.  This pair met up at Newmarket last time out when Andrew Balding progressives Paco Boy gelding (Beat The Bank) won with plenty to spare.  This ground might just bring the pair closer together this afternoon.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last five winners of the contest when represented and his three-year-old raider MASHAM STAR is his only runner on this occasion.  It’s worth noting that MASHAM STAR is the only vintage raider in the field, given that junior representatives have won four of the last nine renewals.  Mark’s Lawman colt is proven under conditions whereby his 22/1 quote with Ladbrokes and Coral makes plenty of each way appeal.  25/1 about the chance for Sir Roderic (2/3 on soft ground) is also something of an insult from my viewpoint, whilst it’s worth noting that on a day which ‘Team Hannon’ has dominated (eight winners during the last six years), TONY CURTIS is their only runner on the card. 2/2 track stats also catch the eye about 28/1 chance GOSSIPING, albeit Gary Moore’s representative has no form on under these type of conditions.  That said, Gary remains unbeaten here this week following his 100/1 winner on the opening day of the meeting!

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed in the last 20 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

2/2—Gossiping (good to firm & good)

 

3.35: It is impossible to ignore the win and place claims of TAKE COVER, the ten-year-old having snared two gold medals and one of the silver variety (at 20/1) during the last three renewals!  David Griffiths deserves particular credit for keeping the old boy in fine form, as advertised perfectly when his Singspiel gelding won on the Knavesmire last time out.  Whether David Allen’s mount will be competitive in these conditions remains unknown, though we are aware that connections of PROFITABLE have no such worries.  There will be worse outsiders on the day than YALTA I’ll wager, especially as the 40/1 chance stands at 2/2 on the track thus far, albeit both victories were gained on good ground.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the fourth race: 

1/2—Kachy (good)

2/4—Take Ciover (2 x good to firm)

2/2—Yalta (2 x good)

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4.10: The last 13 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, statistics which makes the task of Rufus King that much harder, given that Mark Johnston’ s raider is asked to give a minimum 18 pounds to his rivals.  The pick of the remaining ten contenders (at the time of writing) could prove to be GIFT IN TIME, CAROUSE and MILTON ROAD.  The latter named Mick Channon raider is on offer at 25/1 with Bet365 and ‘Vic’ this morning and being as short as 16/1 elsewhere. Those odds could (perhaps should) be accommodated to minimum stakes, especially with a 1/1 track record on good to soft ground under his belt.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have scored during the study period, whilst 12 of the last 20 jollies have reached the frame. That said, Seven of the last 17 winners of this nursery event have scored at 25/1--20/1--20/1--16/1--12/1--10/1--10/1.

Record of course winners in the fifth event: 

1/1—Milton Road (good to soft)

 

4.40: Three-year-olds have won 14 of the last 20 renewals and vintage representatives are around the 10/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, as long as further non-runners fail to rear their ugly heads before flag fall.  The pick of the relevant entries include TOMYRIS and CRISTAL FIZZ.  If the vintage trend is to be breached in the Placepot finale however, SAINTED is the likely spoiler from my viewpoint.  It’s interesting that William Haggas saddles the latter name pair offering a three and a four-year-old into the mix, given that four-year-olds have made something of a fightback having won four races during the last decade.  The reserve nomination is awarded to PERFECT ANGEL.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 20 market leaders throughout the study period claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale: 

1/1—Al Jazi (good to firm)

1/1—Perfect Angel (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Represented winning trainers at Goodwood this week with their relevant number of runners on Friday:

2 winners—Richard Hannon (7/1 & 10/3*) – 1 runner at Goodwood today

2 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1 & 9/1) – 7 runners

2 winners—David Simcock (50/1 & 8/1) – 3 runners

1 winner—Charlie Appleby (5/2*) – 5 runners

1 winner—Andrew Balding (20/1) – 4 runners

1 winner—John Gosden (6/1) – 4 runners

1 winner—Gary Moore (100/1) – 1 runner

1 winner—Aidan O’Brien (10/11*) – 2 runners

1 winner—Sir Michael Stoute (7/4*) – 4 runners

1 winner—Roger Varian (15/2) – 3 runners

1 winner—Ian Williams (25/1) – 1 runner

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £8.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Musselburgh: £57.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Newmarket: £31.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Thirsk: £59.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Bangor: £29.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 28th

ASCOT - JULY 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:

Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Expressly), 11 (Stream Song) & 4 (Indicia)

Leg 2 (2.10): 6 (Mythical Magic) & 8 (Strategist)

Leg 3 (2.45): 7 (Mister Manduro) & 8 (UAE King)

Leg 4 (3.20): 6 (Mittens), 3 (Nathra) & 7 (On Her Toes)

Leg 5 (3.55): 4 (Red Galileo), 6 (Tawddea) & 1 (Galapiat)

Leg 6 (4.25): 9 (Soie D’Leau), 3 (Yalta), 10 Shamshon) & 11 (Coofitch)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: INDICIA will be the first name on many lips this morning, though bookmakers have made wonderful profits down the years when punters plunge on juveniles who have finished second on their debuts, only to get turned over as favourites next time out.  With EXPRESSIY and (arguably) JOUSY having also been declared however, it is debatable if INDICIA will be returned as the market leader in a typically warm Ascot two-year-old contest.  STREAM SONG also catches the eye at an each way price at the foot of the list in the familiar George Strawbridge (white with a green hoop) colours.

Favourite factor: This is a new race ion the Ascot card via the ‘novice status’ of races brought in by the BHA around 18 months ago.

 

2.10: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick and given the amount of juveniles in his yard to choose from, we can suppose that MAGHWEER is among the top ranked two-year-old at base camp this season.  I’ve had to stop in my tracks as Richard’s raider has been scratched from the contest as I write.  No doubt Maghweer is one to keep an eye on.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that MYTHICAL MAGIC and STRATEGIST are now probably the safest options from a Placepot viewpoint given that we have a ‘short field’ to assess.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Last year’s wording before the 5/2 favourite obliged; Although winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence during the last 15 years, the relevant winners ranged in odds between 5/2 and 10/1.

 

2.45: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of this Class 2 (Brown Jack) handicap, yet no vintage representatives turned up for the gig last year!  Thankfully Roger Varian (UAE KING) and Mark Johnston (MISTER MANDURO) are wise to the stats this time around and this pair are expected to duel all the way to the line from my viewpoint.  Mark Johnston has saddled no less than ten winners at this two day fixture during the last five years whereby from a value for money perspective at least, I’m taking MISTER MANDURO to marginally win the day.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Brown Jack’ have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include seven successful favourites.

 

3.20: Three-year-olds have now secured 11 of the last 15 renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last six contests. Little wonder then that two of the three-year-olds have attract plenty of each way support overnight, namely the progressive pair MITTENS and ON HER TOES.  Both horses are guaranteed places in my Placepot mix, though the softened ground might have gone against Tisbutadream who would otherwise have been added into the mix.  John Gosden’s NATHRA is elevated into the equation accordingly.  A winner on soft and good to soft ground on both of her previous seasonal debut assignments, Frankie’s mount would take the beating if cherry ripe for the task in hand.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the last 15 years, whilst 12 of the 15 winners were sent off at 11/2 or less.

Course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Mittens (good)

1/2—Tisbutadream (good to firm)

 

3.55: I can report overnight win and place money for RED GALILEO which does not come as a great surprise with the Saeed Bin Suroor stable having hit top form recently, with nine of their last 21 runners having been saddled to winning effect.  Others for the melting pot include GALAPIAT and TAWDEEA, given that any value in Appeared has long since disappeared, if you’ll pardon the play on words.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 market finished last of six runners (beaten 23 lengths), with favourite backers hoping for a distinctly better run for their money on this occasion.

Course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Appeared (good to firm)

1/3—King Bolete (goot to fim)

1/4—Sennockian Star (good)

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4.25:  Five-year-olds secured the first five places in the 2012 contest before vintage representatives claimed a 1-2-4 three years ago at odds of 10/1-7/1**-12/1, five-year-olds having won four of the last six previous renewals before 2015 when the vintage was not represented.  Only two five-year-olds (33/1 & 25/1 chances) lined up on another occasion, before vintage representatives landed a 1-3-4 twelve months ago.  Unbelievably (I don’t believe it!) just one relevant horse has been declared this time around, with SOIE D’LEAU being the first name on the team sheet.  Ryan Moore boasts a 33% strike rate for Mark Johnston this season which can only aid and abet the cause of YALTA.  The recent Newmarket winner SHAMSHON finished fourth last year off a six pound higher mark, whilst COOLFITCH cannot be left out of the equations with conditions to suit.

Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten (winners at 66/1-50/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1-13/2) before a successful 4/1 market leader prevailed six years ago.  The race reverted to type in 2012 when a 14/1 chance led home horses sent off at 9/1 and 33/1, whilst the last four winners have scored at 14/1-10/1-8/1-5/1.  14 of the last 18 market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Shamson (soft)

1/13—Jack Dexter (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Mark Johnston (3/30 – loss of 8 points)

4—David Elsworth (1/8 – Profit of 4 points)

4—William Haggas (4/29 – loss of 12 points)

4—Roger Varian (2/26 – loss of 16 points)

3—John Gosden (2/38 – loss of 21 points)

3—Richard Hannon (4/40 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (2/17 – loss of 10 points)

2—Charlie Appleby (4/28 – Profit of 15 points)

2—Andrew Balding (0/13)

2—Robert Cowell (0/7)

2—Tim Easterby (1/2 – Profit of 24 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/5)

2—William Knight (No previous runners)

2—David O’Meara (1/19 – Profit of 7 points)

2—Hugo Palmer (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

2—Derek Shaw (No Previous runners)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £306.20 – 7 Favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Newmarket: £39.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Thirsk: £24.30 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

York: £65.60 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplced

Uttoxeter: £426.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday July 5

BATH – JULY 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £523.60 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 5 (Perusing The Dream) & 7 (Aquadabra)

Leg 2 (6.30): 6 (Shumato), 4 (Dyllan) & 3 (Handytalk)

Leg 3 (7.00): 2 (Black Trilby) & 4 (Wonderfullo)

Leg 4 (7.30): 4 (Fujaira Birdge), 2 (I’vegotthepower) & 6 (Pattie)

Leg 5 (8.00): 2 (Daimochi), 3 (X Rated) & 1 (Attain)

Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Fanfare) & 5 (Bicolour)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

6.00: No trainer has more runners than Mick Channon on the card (four in total) and the trainer will be hoping that his Born To Sea filly AQUADABRA can get her head in front when it matters most after five half decent efforts.  Her chance has not been helped by the declaration of PERSUING THE DREAM who was beaten less than five lengths in the ‘Queen Mary’ a fortnight ago.  A repeat of that effort would surely be good enough to life this prize en route to better things.    Conditions will be the same as when DREAMBOARD ANNIE took the scalp of an odds on favourite over course and distance twelve days ago.

Favourite Factor: Last year’s 15/8 favourite was withdrawn at the start without time for a new market to be formed.  Horses reached the ‘short field’ frame when returned at 18/1 & 8/1, a result which went a long way to producing a half decent Placepot dividend (£523.60).  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Dreamboat Annie (firm)

 

6.30: Roger Charlton can hardly put a foot wrong these days and there appears to be a golden opportunity for SFUMATO to add to his winning tally in this grade/company, the Bated Breath gelding having scored under fast conditions at Lingfield in August.  Ruth Carr is another handler enjoying life at present and Ruth’s northern raider DYLLAN has also been offered a winning chance.  I fancy this pair to finished ahead of Royal Mezyan, certainly form a value for money perspective looking at the trade press odds at the time of writing.  For the same reason, HANDYTALK completes my trio against the field.

Favourite Factor: The race could not have worked out more differently for the inaugural 7/2 joint favourites than was the case twelve months ago, with one of the market leaders winning the contest, whilst the other ‘jolly’ finished last of six.

Record of course winners in the second event on the card:

4/22—Silverrica (3 x firm & good to soft)

1/1—Secret Potion (good to soft)

 

7.00: Only beaten five lengths in last year’s ‘Convivial’ at York, BLACK TRILBY has remained a maiden for longer than most of us would have predicted.  That said, Clive Cox has surely found the right race for his Helmet colt to go in the right direction now, possibly starting a winning run if the handicapper gives Clive’s March foal a fair mark following this event.  Balestra has been disappointing this season whereby Paul Cole’s WONDERFULLO might offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite Factor:  The inaugural 5/4 market leader failed to score in a four runner 'win only' contest before last year’s 11/10 favourite finished out with the washing with the frame being filled by horses which were sent off at 9/4-40/1-14/1.

 

7.30: I guess the programme book for trainers to peruse looks that much clearer when you have saddled your last six runners to winning effect!  That’s what is relevant here regarding Roger Varian who has declared FUJAIRA BRIDGE with a chance of extending the tally here, though Roger was due to have earlier runners on the day if want to check out his up to date form!  I’m not too sure how many times Brian Meehan has ‘doubled up’ with his winners this season but that’s what Brian will hope happens relating to his recent Goodwood winner I’VEGOTTHEPOWER.  Pillar Of Society faces much different ground than when scoring at Windsor the last day, whereby PATTIE is preferred.

Favourite Factor:  This is a new race on the Bath card.

Record of course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—I’vegotthepower (firm)

 

8.00: It’s very rare that I oppose three-year-olds in this type of race, though ATTAIN boasts obvious claims with the fast ground in his favour, as is usually the case at my local racecourse.  That said, X RATED and DAIMOCHI look progressive types from the successful yards of Mark Johnston and Clive Cox respectively.  The two trainers have contrasting stats at Bath this season; well worth taking a look at the figures below.

Favourite Factor: This is another new event on the Bath programme.

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Record of course winner in the fifth event on the card:

1/5—Attain (firm)

1/1—Bayston Hill (firm)

 

8.30: Richard Hannon (FANFAIR) and Mark Johnston (BICOLOUR) should have the last leg of our favourite wrapped up between them, albeit I would not back either horse to actually win the race.  The event should not take a great deal of winning, though neither horse has convinced me that their maiden tags are about to be broken, albeit figuring prominently at the ‘elbow’ should not be beyond their capabilities.  Put it this way, I would far rather be a layer than a player in the contest, especially as nothing else make much appeal.  The race has ‘bookmakers result’ written all over it from my viewpoint.

Favourite Factor: The Placepot finale is the third new race on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Bath card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Mick Channon (2/12 – loss of 2 points)

4—Richard Hannon (6/19 – Profit of 11 points)

3—David Evans (0/13)

3—Mark Johnston (0/12)

3—Rod Millman (0/9)

3—Mark Usher (2/5 – Profit of 14 points)

2—Michael Appleby (0/3)

2—Tony Carroll (0/7)

2—Clive Cox (4/9 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Seamus Durack (0/3)

2—Charlie Hills (2/8 – loss of 3 points)

2—Sylvester Kirk (0/2)

2—Jamie Osborne (0/5)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £96.60 – 8 favourites – 1 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

Thirsk: This is a new meeting on the calendar

Kempton: £247.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

Perth: £153.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £109.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday June 20

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 20

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last six years on Day One:

2016: £1,219.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1  winner & 6 unplaced)

2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £511.95

39 favourites - 13 winners - 9 placed 17 unplaced

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 11 (Mutakayyef), 3 (Deauville) & 6 (Ennadd)

Leg 2 (3.05): 11 (Murillo), 3 (Brother Bear) & 18 (Zaman)

Leg 3 (3.40): 12 (Signs Of Blessing), 16 (Marsha) & 17 (Priceless)

Leg 4 (4.20): 2 (Churchill) & 1 (Barney Roy)

Leg 5 (5.00): 5 (Yorkidding), 7 (Magic Circle), & 6 (Cleonte)

Leg 6 (5.35): 10 (Declarationofpeace), 24 (Nookta Sound) & 18 (Roussel)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Please scroll down to the foot of the column for overviews

 

2.30: There are 104 runners to sift through on Tuesday though if you believe that is a tough task, Wednesday's 123 potential starters suggest that bookmakers will need assistance to carry home the cash on the second day of the five day meeting!  Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 19 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of Ribchester but as an odds on favourite who has yet to really convince that racing on ground this quick will suit, I will look elsewhere for the winner.  Having snared the last two Placepots, I am in fighting mood and if we can successfully leave Ribchester out of the mix here, we would be on our way to share a dividend which would be worth winning.  Four-year-old DEAUVILLE demands attention with Aidan O’Brien having won the race three times since he first lifted the prize back in 2006.  Ryan Moore’s mount is a four time winner who has finished ‘in the three’ nine times via twelve assignments which makes his 14/1 price look attractive.  MUTAKAYYEF was only beaten ‘three parts’ in the Woodbine Mile two starts back and a repeat of that effort would be good enough to go very close here under his preferred conditions.  I have not completely given up on ENNADD at this level and those of you looking for a big priced winner could do worse than consider Roger Varian’s four-year-old King’s Best raider.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have scored in the last twenty years, whilst ten market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:

1/2—Dutch Connection (good to firm)

1/2--Mutakayyef (good to firm)

1/2--Ribchester (soft)

 

3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 21 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles two runners this time around, the pick of which looks to be his March foal MURILLO.  Scat Daddy offspring can disappoint at time and that was the case at the first time of asking regarding the selection, though that tame effort was soon forgotten when winning in a hack canter at Tipperary next time up.  Connections might have most to fear from BROTHER BEAR and ZAMAN at the business end of the contest.  Jessica Harrington has enjoyed plenty of success at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals already this year and a win for BROTHER BEAR could cap a wonderful few months for the popular Irish trainer.  February foal BROTHER BEAR represents the month which boasts the best recent record in the ‘Coventry’ from a foaling perspective.

Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  

Record of course winners in the Coventry Stakes:

1/1—Aqabah (good to firm)

'First three in the betting’ in the last 14 years: 

11 winners—8 placed—23 unplaced.

'Starting prices stats in the last 14 years: 

7/1 or less: 12 winners—-10 placed—-29 unplaced

15/2 or more: Two winners—-18 placed-—166 unplaced

28/1 or more: No winners-—4 placed—-82 unplaced

Foaling stats in the last 14 years:

January: 1 winner & 7 places

February: 6 winners & 7 places

March: 4 winners & 7 places

April: 3 winners & 5 places

May: No winners & 2 places

 

3.40: Nine of the last fourteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders though the home contingent look set to rule on this occasion.  I cannot pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done.  I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through.  Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal.  Then again, the man is all about selling himself on the bigger stage, so it works for him I guess!  PRICELESS looks to be the win and place call having won well at Haydock last time up.  Clive Cox took the race last year with Profitable under different conditions, though the Invincible Spirit representative has won on ground this fast in the past.  That said, Profitable looks held by SIGNS OF BLESSING via the form book, whilst MARSHA looks well in with Washington DC via her Newmarket win in the ‘Palace House’ after which, Sir Mark Prescott’s grin could be seen a mile away!  Mark rates his filly very highly.

Favourite factor: Two of the last ten favourites have won, whilst 11 of the last 26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions going back further in time

Record of course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:

1/1—Alpha Delphini (good to firm)

2/3--Goldream (good & good to firm)

3/19--Medicean Man (3 x good)

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1/3--Profitable (soft)

1/3—Washington DC (good to firm)

1/1—Lady Aurelia (soft)

 

4.20: Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last sixteen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany made Frankel pull out all the stops six years ago.  Aidan saddles CHURCHILL and it would take a personal best from BARNEY ROY to lower his colours I’ll wager, whilst this pair should draw clear of their rivals inside the furlong marker.  THUNDER SNOW deserves his chance, though the fitting of cheek-pieces at this level is off-putting to say the least.  Guineas winners have a great record in this event and CHURCHILL is taken to beat BARNEY ROY accordingly.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 18 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 18 years was an 8/1 chance.  15 of the 20 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the St James’s Palace Stakes:

1/1—Church (good to soft)

 

5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (though the trends have not worked out well these last two years), statistics which bring in the likes of YORKIDDING, MAGIC CIRCLE and CLEONTE into the equation.  Nine of the last eleven winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby THOMAS HOBSON additionally enters the overnight mix.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last eighteen years (two winners).  Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed.  I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post.  I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps.  My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race.  With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 20/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective. 

Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:  

1/3--Yorkidding (good to firm)

1/3--Oceane (good to firm)

 

5.35: ROUSSEL could prove to be the pick of the home based runners, though DECLARATIONOFPEACE, NOOKTA SOUND and ELIZABETH DARCY all look set to figure prominently in a typically tough first day finale.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst ten of the nineteen market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed toteplacepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 14 years:

5 winners—7 placed—31 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-3 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—35 unplaced

8/1 or more: 8 winners—-20 placed-—203 unplaced

Foaling dates in the last 14 years:

January: No winners & 1 place

February: 5 winners & 8 places

March: 6 winners & 9 places

April: 2 winners & 8 places

May: 1 winner & 2 places

 

Trainers with three of more runners on the Royal Ascot card on Tuesday – followed by the relevant number of winners at the meeting last year:

9 runners—Aidan O’Brien (7 winners in 2016)

6—Richard Fahey (1)

6—Richard Hannon

6—Charlie Hills

4—Charlie Appleby (1)

4—William Haggas

4—Wesley A Ward (1)

3—Robwert Cowell (2)

3—Clive Cox (2)

3—Alan King (1)

Total of 104 declared runners

 

General overview

Corresponding Placepot dividends from the ‘away meetings’ last year:

Beverley: £8.40 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed)

Brighton: £68.10 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

Stratford: £1,517.00 (6 favourites - 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

Thirsk: £825.00 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday June 5

LINGFIELD – JUNE 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £89.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.40): 1 (Nine Below Zero) & 3 (Lethal Lunch)

Leg 2 (6.10): 3 (Dirchill) & 6 (Madame Bounty)

Leg 3 (6.40): 4 (Steaming) & 1 (Mancini)

Leg 4 (7.10): 6 (West Drive), 10 (Essenaitch) & 3 (Fleeting Visit)

Leg 5 (7.40): 4 (Jordan Sport), 9 (Udontdodou), 7 (Stake Acclaim) & 10 (Summer Chorus)

Leg 6 (8.10): 10 (Monteamiata), 6 (Awesome Allan) & 1 (Dagonet)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.40: It might be a good idea to take note of what could prove to be a plethora of non-runners as the afternoon wears on, with the threat of plenty of rain hitting the Windsor area from 16.00 hours.  Whether it will be early and heavy enough to affect the earlier races remains to be seen though as ever, be mindful that where you can successfully omit favourites from your permutation (especially when lots of non-runners evolve), you give yourself a fine opportunity of scooping a good dividend.  Let’s hope that the course itself does not react not react badly to rain on a firm surface like it has in recent weeks/seasons when come meetings have had to be abandoned.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that plenty of the Richard Hannon juveniles are improving a great deal following their debuts this season whereby LETHAL LUNCH could offer the biggest threat to NINE BELOW ZERO, who has to give six pounds to his rivals following an impressive gold medal debut performance at Salisbury.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite secured a Placepot position by finishing second, flanked by other horses which were returned at 9/4 and 7/1.  In case you think I might have forgotten to add the favourite details in four of the other five races on the Placepot card, four of the relevant events are new races.

 

6.10: DIRCHILL and MADAME BOUNTY remain maidens following an aggregate of six races thus far though that said, both horses look sure to beat their other five rivals, whereby it’s just a case of which entry beats the other though from a Placepot perspective, I don’t really care!

 

6.40: If the forecast rain arrives on cue, the drop back in trip is likely to suit STEAMING because he would not be troubled if ‘stamina’ became an issue.  Richard Kingscote is not used to going nineteen rides without steering a winner home whereby the popular pilot will be hoping that one of his three booked rides today will prevail.  It’s worth noting that Richard retains the ride aboard MANCINI who was noted making plenty of late headway at Lingfield on debut after nearly all hope had been ended at the start following a tardy exit from the stalls.  If breaking on terms in this grade/company, I would expect Jonathan Portman’s Nathanial gelding to be involved in the finish.

 

7.10: WEST DRIVE and ESSENAITCH are two of just four course winners on the card which have ‘soft’ featuring in the going description relating to the relevant victories.  The rain should have made a difference to the going description by flag fall though either way, FLEETING VISIT completes my trio against the remaining seven declarations.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

2/5—Croquembouche (good)

1/7—Ravenous (good to firm)

1/1—West Drive (good to soft)

1/6—Essenaitch (good to soft)

 

7.40: Four-year-olds have secured four of the last ten contests, whilst seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, which eliminates the bottom three horses from my viewpoint.  The only two horses which possess ticks in both of the trend boxes are JORDAN SPORT and UDONTDODOU who both happen to have won under soft conditions, should the rain fall as has been forecast.  If the wet stuff manages to swerve the Windsor region, SUMMER CHORUS could just be the joker in the pack (attractively priced at around the 9/1 mark at the time of writing) from just sixteen ounces under the ‘superior’ weight barrier.  Soft ground course winner STAKE ACCLAIM is the other contender to consider.

Favourite factor: Just one (3/1) favourite has prevailed during the last decade, whilst only three of the last nine market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event on the card:

1/1—Spring Loaded (good & good to firm)

1/2—Little Palaver (good to firm)

1/3—Stake Acclaim (soft)

1/1—Dontdodou (good)

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1/4—Pixieleen (good to firm)

1/3—Ice Age (good to firm)

 

8.10: AWESOME ALLAN should be able to get his hooves well into the ground by the time that flag fall arrives and if you see visible evidence that rain is falling with some purpose in the Windsor area earlier in the evening, the 20/1 offer at the time of writing could be worth taking.  MONTEAMIATA is rated as the biggest threat according to the gospel of yours truly, whilst 16/1 looks plenty big enough about DAGONET, especially with Roger Charlton currently boasting a period of results which equate to a 31% strike rate, statistics which offer eleven points of level stake profit.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/2—Awesome Allen (soft)

1/1—Broadhaven Honey (good to firm)

1/1—Fethiye Boy (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Tony Carroll (0/5)

3—Andrew Balding (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

3—Clive Cox (3/10 – Profit of 17 points)

3—David Evans (1/24 – loss of 13 points)

3—Ed Walker (0/5)

2—Ralph Beckett (0/5)

2—Paul D’Arcy (0/1)

2—Ron Hannon (3/16 – loss of 9 loss)

2—Ron Harris (1/2 – Profit of 24 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/10 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Dean Ivory (0/12)

2—Pat Phelan (0/3)

+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £19.30 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Leicester: This is a new meeting

Thirsk: £3.90 – 3 favourites – 2 winners & 1 placed (other races abandoned)

Newton Abbot: This is another new meeting on Monday

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday May 20

NEWBURY – MAY 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £403.70 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Midterm), 5 (My Dream Boat) & 1 (Across The Stars)

Leg 2 (2.20): 8 (Perfect Angel), 1 (Private Matter) & 2 (Barrington)

Leg 3 (2.55): 5 (Defoe), 8 (Mucho Applause) & 9 (Glorious Forever)

Leg 4 (3.30): 6 (Mitchum Swagger), 1 (Aclaim) & 7 (Ribchester)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Denaar) & 4 (Koditime)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Gracious Diana) & 6 (Prosper)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50:  Four-year-olds have won 10 of the last 19 renewals of this Listed staying event and vintage representatives MIDTERM and ACROSS THE STARS from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard are the first names on the team sheet this time around.  That said, five-year-olds come to the party on a hat trick whereby the soft ground Royal Ascot winner MY DREAM BOAT in added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 favourites have reached the frame (four winners), whilst the previous 18 winners had scored at odds of 8/1 or less before last year’s 14/1 gold medallists reared its ugly head.

Record of Newbury course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Midterm (good to soft)

 

2.20 (Listed Carnnarvon Stakes): 'Team Hannon' has secured three of the last seven contests, a factor which led to my leading with their 7/1 winner last year.  The stable is not represented on this occasion however though moving onwards and upward in positive mode, my eyes are drawn to the top and bottom horses in the list, namely PRIVATE MATTER and PERFECT ANGEL.  Both horses have form under today’s conditions whilst hailing from yards who have been sending out plenty of winners.  The value for money reserve nomination is awarded to BARRINGTON whose trainer Charlie Hills saddled a 25/1 winner here at Newbury yesterday.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last twelve years during which time, nine gold medallists have scored at a top rice of 4/1.

 

2.55: The last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 whereby DEFOE, MUCHO APPLAUSEand GLORIOUS FOREVER will represent yours truly in my toteplacepot permutation on Saturday.  Horses drawn in the lowest three stall positions have produced four of the last six winners, gaining a Placepot position between them on all six occasions.  DEFOE (1/14) is the clear pick of this year’s relevant raiders.  COUNT CALABASH is not entirely ruled out of the mix at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Six favourites (of one description or another) have prevailed during the study period, whilst 15 of the 25 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – the most recent result listed first):

3-4-5 (15 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good)

7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good to firm)

14-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)

5-9-12 (12 ran-good)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good)

5-9-13 (13 ran-good)

6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

3 (3 ran-soft)

8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

Record of Newbury course winners in the third race:

1/1—Duke Of Bronte (good to firm)

 

3.30 (Group 1 Lockinge Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 19 renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whilst the last seven winners carried official marks of 124-136-127-126-125-121-117 into the contest (average ratio of 125).  I suggested last year that the contest twelve months ago represented a drop in class which proved to be the case via the 117 winner and with this year’s remaining eight runners running off an average figure of 115, much can be said for this latest renewal.  This factor suggests that outsiders should be considered alongside those towards the head of the market, perhaps none more so than a 40/1 chance, namely MITCHUM SWAGGER one of the four course winners in the field.  Before you send for the ‘men in white coats’, it would be wise to look at his record when racing on good/soft ground to date.  Just one disappointing effort has been registered via six relevant assignments.  One victory has been recorded alongside four placed efforts which included a third placed position in last year’s Royal Hunt Cup which was contested on soft ground.  The other three (silver medal) efforts recorded defeats by just a neck and a head (two occasions). I perfectly understand if you prefer backing horses at the other end of the betting but do yourself a favour, at least have an each way saver on David Lanigan’s Paco Boy gelding.  I offered two outsiders on the Windsor card on Monday night, one of which (Englishman) won at 33/1.  It might just be a coincidence of course, but Paco Boy won this race back in 2010.  I grant you that more logical winners in the field might include RIBCHESTER and ACLAIM but my money has already been invested at 40/1, with a small saver on Martyn Meade’s latter named representative at 9/1.

Favourite factor: The last nineteen winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (ten winning favourites), whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Six of the last ten market leaders have won (joint favourites were recorded two years ago), as have nine favourites during the last fourteen years.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

6-7-2 (12 ran-good)

3-15-6 (16 ran-good)

3-2-5 (8 ran--good to firm)

5-7-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (6 ran-good)

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4-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-6-2 (11 ran-soft)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

7-8-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

10-2-3 (9 ran-soft)

5-1-11 (8 ran-firm)

3-8-14 (15 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good)

7-8-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

1-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (6 ran-soft)

8-4-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

Record of Newbury course winners in the 'Lockinge':

1/2—Aclaim (soft)

1/3—Breton Rock (good to soft)

1/1—Mitchum Swagger

1/1—Ribchester (good to soft)

 

4.05:  Newbury continues to be the flat (turf) track to target in Placepot wagers.  When I wrote my first Placepot book back in 1994, Newbury was the top venue in terms of average Placepot dividends on the level and not much has changed.  Before I go any further I should report one startling fact from my perspective in that Richard Hannon (the younger) has already saddled well over 300 horses at Newbury, 53% of which were juveniles, stats which have produced 18 relevant gold medallists.  Richard has offered the green light to his Chelmsford winner DENAAR and with the trainer having mentioned Mehmas (last year’s winner of this race) when interviewed at the Essex venue after the relevant contest, it is no surprise to see the Acclamation colt turning up for this gig.  Mehmas went on to pick up a couple of Group 2 races in 2016 (July Stakes & Richmond Stakes) and connections will have the same dreams twelve months on. KODITIME is marginally preferred to Kit Marlowe as the main threat to the selection.

Favourite factor: The inaugural favourite finished out of the money at 3/1 before last year’s 4/6 market leader found one too good (from a win perspective) when securing a Placepot postion.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

5-1-6 (8 ran-good)

3-7-4 (8 ran-good)

 

4.40: John Gosden has claimed two of the last six renewals of this fascinating contest and only the fact that his raider GRACIOUS DIANA gained her victory on fast ground prevents me from making her nap material this time around.  That said, John’s Foxwedge filly has some serious rivals in opposition here, the pick of which might just prove to be PROSPER on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twelve years, whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of Newbury course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Gracious Diana (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their winners and starting prices at the track this season:

5 runners—Richard Fahey

4—Hugo Palmer

3—Marco Botti

3—Clive Cox

3—Richard Hannon (3 winners at 8/1-11/2-5/2)

3—Mark Johnston

3—David Simcock

3—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Andrew Balding

2—Brian Meehan (1 winner at 25/1)

2—Roger Varian

2—Ed Walker

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 runners at the time of writing

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £699.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newmarket: £87.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Thirsk: £131.20 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Bangor: £224.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £486.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Saturday May 13

ASCOT – MAY 13

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years:

2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)

2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)

2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £425.12 - 40 favourites - 9 winners - 7 placed - 24 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Lord George), 7 (Mornington) & 2 (Southdown Lad)

Leg 2 (2.50): 9 (UAE Prince) & 5 (Knights Table)

Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Artistocratic) & 4 (Permission)

Leg 4 (4.00): 2 (Remarkable), 22 (Taurean Star), 15 (George William) & 6 (Bossy Guest)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Aqabah) & 1 (Cardsharp)

Leg 6 (5.10): 19 (Nightingale Valley), 17 (Storm Line), 21 (Picket Valley), 6 (Rio Ronaldo) & 4 (War Whisper)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

 

2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 15 of the 18 available Placepot positions via 53% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the six winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The six vintage representatives this time around are 5/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted in a potential eleven runner field. My preferred short listed in order of preference is LORD GEORGE, MORNINGTON and SOUTHDOWN LAD.  William Hunter is offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared three toteplacepot positions via six renewals, statistics which include one (13/8) winner.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—William Hunter (good)

 

2.50: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-4 via eleven contests to date, whilst the last ten gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. If the vintage trends are to rule the day again, I fancy UAE PRINCE to deny a big race winner for James Tate who saddles the improving four-year-old KNIGHTS TABLE.  The bronze medal could be snared by Baydar in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites (six winners) have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Star Storm (good)

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 22 of the 32 available toteplacepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the seven vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be ARISTOCRATIC, PERMISSION and TEGARA, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing. The reserve nomination is awarded to the course and distance winner SINGYOURSONG.

Favourite factor: Only three of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:

1/1—Singyoursong (good to firm)

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (14 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of REMARKABLE (drawn 13/27), TAUREAN STAR (7), GEORGE WILLIAM (23) and BOSSY GUEST (24) emerges.  The reserve nomination is awarded to SQUATS (6).

Favourite factor: Eight of the 20 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include three winners.

Draw details for the last ten years (most recent renewal listed first):

29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)

23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)

25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)

13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)

2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)

7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)

21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)

1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)

13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)

16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)

9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)

Record of the course winner in the Victoria Cup:

2/5—Gm Hopkins (good to firm & good to soft)

2/7—Outback Traveller (good & good to soft)

1/8—Squats (good to firm)

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1/3—Kadrizzi (good to firm)

2/14—Heaven’s Guest (good to soft & soft)

2/4—Taurean Star (good to firm & good to soft)

1/4—Professor (good to firm)

 

4.35: In some reports, this is listed as a new race which I cannot fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.  Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that five newcomers take on one experienced runner (CARDSHARP) who won on debut in a low key event at Brighton.  A six pound penalty might stop the Mark Johnston raider in his tracks accordingly, especially with AQABAH having been declared to run by Charlie Appleby.  Charlie has won with all three juveniles this season, whilst his Exchange Rate representative has the big Listed race at Redcar on his agenda at the back end of the season.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (11/4-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.

 

5.10: 15 of the 22 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1.  Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-2 from a win perspective via just the six renewals) whereby my ‘short list’ consists of NIGHTINDALE VALLEY (11/25), STORM MELODY (2), PICKET LINE (3) and WAR WHISPER (8). If an entry belies the weight trend this time around, RIO RONALDO (17) could be the horse in question.  Can there ever have been a 25 runner handicap race at Ascot on a Saturday before where there are no course winners in the field?

Favourite factor: All six market leaders have finished out with the washing in the toteplacepot finale.

Draw details:

2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)

1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)

4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)

3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)

9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)

7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their winners (and prices) via two meetings this season:

3 runners—Marco Botti

3—Richard Fahey

3—James Fanshawe

3—Richard Hannon (winner at 7/2)

3—David Simcock

2—David Barron

2—Michael Bell (winner at 9/2)

2—Owen Burrows

2—Mick Channon

2—Michael Easterby

2—Davis Elsworth

2—John Gosden

2—William Haggas

2—Richard Hughes

2—Dean Ivory

2—Mark Johnston

2—Daniel Mark Loughnane

2—Jeremy Gask

2—William Knight

2—Mike Murphy

2—Amanda Perrett

2—James Tate

2—Roger Varian (winner at 5/1)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock (Mixed meeting): £690.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £90.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Nottingham: £337.60 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Thirsk: £391.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

Hexham: £141.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Warwick: £19.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday May 6

NEWMARKET – MAY 6

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends from the last six years:

2016: £16,246.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

2015: £344.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

2014: £150.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £337.10 (8 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £84.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2011: £137.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,883.38 - 40 favourites in total - 14 winners - 10 placed - 16 unplaced (exact science)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 8 (Playful Sound), 4 (Ballet Concerto) & 6 (Next Stage)

Leg 2 (2.20): 4 (Alpha Delphini), 5 (Goldream), 11 (Profitable) & 9 (Muthmir)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (One Foot In Heaven) & 6 (Seventh Heaven)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Churchill) & 2 (Barney Roy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Exmouth), 6 (Victory Angel) & 9 (The Wagon Wheel)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Khalidi), 4 (Night Circus) & 5 (Permian)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Four-year-olds come to the party having won six of the last ten contests, whilst securing 17 of the last available 34 Placepot/each way positions.  Ten of the twelve winners of the race have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whereby my short list comprises of PLAYFUL SOUND, BALLET CONCERTO and NEXT STAGE. The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing, whilst the reserve nomination is offered to BERKSHIRE whose course record demands respect.

Favourite factor: Five of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one winner.

Record of the course winners in the opening contest:

2/2—Berkshire (good to firm & soft)

1/1—Next Stage (good to firm)

1/7—Bancnuanaheireann (good to firm)

 

2.20 (Palace House Stakes): Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of this event with ALPHA DELPHINI looking much the best prospect of just two vintage representatives this time around.  Bryan Smart’s raider won on his first start last year, subsequently making great improvement and a return to that type of form would make his 14/1 quote this morning a decent each way option.  PROFITABLE will not have the good to soft ground which he won on twelve months ago but Clive Cox’s raider obviously deserves his place among the favourites when attempting to defend his crown.  Others to consider include GOLDREAM and MUTHMIR in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last seventeen favourites have won, whilst 11/21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the second event on the card:

2/3—Goldream (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Profitable (good to soft)

 

2.55 (Jockey Club Stakes): Four and five-year-olds had won the last fourteen renewals between them (equal split) before last year’s renewal which was won by a four-year-old.  The trend for the younger set looks set to be improved upon with SEVENTH HEAVEN having been declared, notwithstanding Mark Johnston’s entry Galapiat.  The potential joker in the pack however is ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN who is a dual Group 2 winner already, with French raiders invariably running well at this venue down the years.  Two withdrawals have taken this event into ‘win only’ territory and if the French raider can score, the Placepot dividend can only be enhanced as ‘foreign’ raiders are generally ‘underplayed’ in the Placepot.

Favourite factor: Six of the last thirteen renewals have fallen the way of favourites, though just one other market leader has struck gold during the last nineteen years. 11/20 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions in recent times.

Record of course winner in the Jockey Club Stakes:

1/2—Pinzolo (good to firm)

 

3.35 (2000 Guineas): Aidan O’Brien has won this race seven times in all though it should be noted that his 4/5 chance (Air Force Blue) twelve months ago ran a poor race, just in case you were jumping in with your ‘size twelves’ this morning.  That said, CHURCHILL looks to be a worthy market leader, though BARNEY ROY also impressed in his trial and there may not be a great deal between the pair at the jamstick.  With all the ‘war mongering’ being waged by media newsreels these days, I guess that Churchill would be an apt winner in 2017. Of the other more obvious pair in the field, I prefer Al Wukair to Eminent, though only from the stance that the overseas challenger will represent better Placepot value than Martyn Meade’s local hope. If you look below at the favourite stats you will know that I am about to cast an outsider into the mix which on this occasion is TOP SCORE, purely from a ‘small each way saver’ perspective you understand.

Favourite factor: Only four market leaders have won the 2000 Guineas since the turn of the Millennium, albeit 13/17 gold medallists scored at a top priced of 11/1.  That said, the thick end of thirty per cent of the toteplacepot positions during the study period have been gained by horses starting at 25/1 or more!  Four 100/1 chances have finished in the frame since the turn of the Millennium alongside the 150/1 runner up in 2013, notwithstanding the 40/1 winner three years ago.

2000 Guineas draw factor in recent years (2016 result offered first):

1-8-3 (13 ran-good to soft)

16-19-5 (18 ran-good to firm)

3-1-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)

12-16-4 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-5-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

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5-9-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

17-3-4 (15-good to firm)

6-14-9 (15 ran-good)

10-19-7 (24 ran-good to firm)

9-11-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-14-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

11-1-4 (14 ran-good)

Record of the course winners in the 2000 Guineas:

1/1—Churchill (good)

2/2—Eminent (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Larchmont Lad (good to frim)

 

4.10: 18/22 horses to secure toteplacepot positions via just the seven renewals thus far have carried weights of nine stones or less, stats which include all seven winners, three of which won at 16/1-16/1-12/1.  Accordingly, my short list against the field consists of VICTORY ANGEL, THE WAGON WHEEL and EXMOUTH.  The form of VICTORY ANGEL at the Craven meeting has already been boosted, whilst the other pair won at the first time of asking twelve months ago, proving (to a fashion) that they are not stuffy types who take time to build into their season.  EXMOUTH is unexposed to say the least and Sir Michael Stoute’s raider would be the marginal (value for money) call if pushed to name a selection.

Favourite factor: All seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners at 9/2-9/2-11/10.

Newmarket record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Victory Angel (good to firm)

 

4.45 (Newmarket Stakes): There is little point of waffling on about form details here when the pain and simple truth is that with a possible ‘win only’ Placepot finale in the offing, it makes sense to include all three potential winners in our Placepot permutation, whereby we can retire to the bar in fairly confident fashion, hoping that the horse with the least units prevail.  This is only relevant of course if we have made it through the first five legs safely.  A good recent run of Placepot results adds confidence when facing this stern test on Saturday.  If pushed to name the winner, I would be influenced by the fact that KHALIDI is John Gosden’s only runner on the card.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last fifteen years, whilst 11/19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season following three meetings + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Richard Hanon (1/12 – loss of 1 point)

5—Aidan O’Brien (1/4 – Slight profit)

4—Richard Fahey (0/5)

4—Mark Johnston (0/6)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (0/5)

3—David Evans (0/1)

3—Hugo Palmer (0/6)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (2/5 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Andrew Balding (1/5 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Paul Cole (0/1)

2—Robert Cowell (0/2)

2—Clive Cox (0/1)

2—William Haggas (0/5)

2—Charlie Hills (1/11 – loss of 5 points)

2—Roger Varian (2/3 – Profit of 4 points)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

67 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £296.10 – 8 favourites – 3 winners & 5 unpklaced

Goodwood: £416.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Thirsk: £880.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Hexham: £10.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £221.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot pointers – Sunday April 30

SALISBURY – APRIL 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £40.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Jumira Prince), 5 (See The Master) & 9 (Primadonia)

Leg 2 (2.30): 3 (Del Parco) & 4 (Malcolm The Pug)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Take Shelter) & 1 (Campion)

Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Adamant), 4 (Elas Ruby) & 6 (Galactic Prince)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Stone The Crows) & 2 (Nadaitak)

Leg 6 (4.30): 7 (Great And Small), 2 (The Tartan Spartan) & 6 (Paris Protocol)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: There is some interesting overnight money developing for PRIMADONIA who left the Hannon yard following just one run last year when trailing home last at Windsor in a race in which he was returned as favourite.  The jury remains out, though it’s worth noting that Richard Hughes tries to pick up the pieces, the former jockey having ridden for the Hannon yard for so many season as son-in-law to Hannon senior.  More obvious winners from what we have witnessed to date include JUMIRA PRINCE and SEE THE MASTER, given that the Irish raider Sharp Defence is omitted because of the skinny (5/4) odds on offer.

Favourite factor: Four of the last seven market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winning favourites.

 

2.30: Clive Cox has saddled two of his last four runners to winning effect and DEL PARCO can carry on the good work on behalf of the team.  Moonwise could be anything representing the Ralph Beckett yard whose runners invariably go well at Salisbury, though lack of a run just offers MALCOLM THE PUG the call as the main threat to the selection.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card whereby the same stats apply.

 

3.00: It’s hardly surprising that Richard Hannon has declared three runners in his attempt to land a five-timer in the contest, the first of those four winners having been saddled by his dad.  The pick of their trio this time around will hopefully prove to be CAMPION and HIGHLAND MARY.  That said, James Tate went oh so close to landing a four-timer on Saturday when only a neck denied the trainer an even better day than he had.  James has declared TAKE SHELTER with an obvious chance, the Harbour Watch filly being the only stable representative on the day.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last decade, whilst eight gold medallists scored at a top price of 8/1.  The last five market leaders have all finished in the frame.

 

3.30: Nine of the last ten winners carried a minimum burden of nine stones which reduces the field from ten down to four if you take the weight stats seriously.  It’s difficult to look beyond ADAMANT and ELAS RUBY in all honesty, especially from a Placepot perspective.  That said, GALACTIC PRINCE could become a player if the forecast rain arrives on cue around lunch time.  A soft ground winner here last season, Andrew Balding’s raider might need some juice in the ground to bring out his best though it’s worth noting that Andrew was the leading trainer here last year on the nine winner mark.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via the last eight renewals during which time, all eight gold medallists scored at a top price of 17/2.  Five of the last ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Haulani (good)

1/1—Viking Hoard (good to soft)

1/1—Galactic Prince (soft)

 

4.00: Eight of the last nine winners have carried 9-3 or more though unfortunately, that only eliminates one runner on this occasion.  Roger Charlton has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect whereby confidence will be high in the camp that STONE THE CROWS can score here en route to better things.  Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Teofilo newcomer NADAITAK is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

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Favourite factor: Seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 4/1, four of which were returned as favourites.  Seven of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

4.30: Four-year-olds have secured six renewals during the last decade which suggests that this year’s trio of vintage representatives will do from a Placepot perspective, namely GREAT AND SMALL, THE TARTAN SPARTAN and PARIS PROTOCOL.  For the record, the threesome is offered in order of preference at the time of writing, from a value for money perspective at least.

Favourite factor: Eight winners have scored a top price of 8/1, statistics which include three successful favourites.  Eight of the eleven market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Paris Protocol (good to soft)

1/3—Plymouth Sound (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Salisbury card on Sunday – followed by their ratio at the track last season + profits/losses accrued:

8 runners—RIchard Hannon (7/78 – loss of 17 points)

5—Rod Millman (2/33 – loss of 16 points)

5—John Patrick Shanahan (No runners)

4—Henry Candy (3/28 – loss of 11 points)

3—Andrew Balding (9/45 - loss of 1 point)

3—Ralph Beckett (6/34 – loss of 6 points)

3—David Elsworth (1/14 – loss of 11 points)

3—Richard Hughes (1/20 – loss of 18 points)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (5/18 – Profit of 6 points)

2—Mick Channon (2/30 – loss of 20 points)

2—Clive Cox (3/27 – loss of 15 points)

2—Paul Henderson (0/2)

2—Gary Moore (2/8 – Profit of 8 points)

2—Tony Newcombe (0/5)

2—John O’Shea (0/6)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

77 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Thirsk: £326.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday April 22

NEWBURY – APRIL 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

Meeting abandoned

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Midterm), 5 (Second Step) & 7 (Dai Harraild)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Dabyah), 9 (Rain Goddess) & 7 (Promising)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Barney Roy), 2 (Dream Castle) & 8 (Via Serendipity)

Leg 4 (3.40): 13 (George William), 20 (Fastnet Tempest), 17 (Storm Ahead) & 10 (Chelsea Lad)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Call To Mind) & 3 (Commander)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Dhalam) & 7 (Musical Terms)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

*Please note that as part of this card was transferred to Chelmsford last year with Newbury having been abandoned, I have completely ignored those results.  The draw would obviously not have been valid and the whole context of the meeting was ‘lost’ from my viewpoint (divided thoughts of trainers/changes in declarations etc), whereby I have decided that my stats are classed as ‘turf only stats’.  I hope you are in agreement with this decision though that said, the judge’s decision is final!

 

1.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last nine years (first and third four years ago).  For all that I have waxed lyrical about John Gosden’s runners this week, Muntahaa was a little disappointing the last day whereby MIDTERM and DAI HARRAILD are preferred, despite giving race fitness away. SECOND STEP offers course stats of 2/2 and if an older horse is to deny the ‘juniors’ on this occasion, Roger Charlton’s six-year-old fits the bill. Available at 10/1 in a place or two this morning, SECOND STEP is the each way call in a fascinating opening event.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'John Porter':

2/2—Second Step (good & good to soft)

1/1—Midterm (good to soft)

 

2.30: Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ four years ago in a career which spanned over forty years.  Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998.  Richard 'junior’ saddled last year’s ‘Chelmsford winner’ and his raider PROMISING boasts win and place claims this time around.  That said, DABYAH jumps off the page hailing from John Gosden’s in form yard, notwithstanding the fact that she won at the first time of asking last year (under fast conditions), suggesting that she is not a stuffy type for this first assignment of the year.  Queen Kindly did not do a great deal wrong last season but 7/2 hardly represents value for money on her seasonal debut.  Aidan O’Brien has not saddled a winner via five representatives at Newbury during the last five years which tempers enthusiasm a tad as far as his Galileo filly RAIN GODDESS is concerned.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winners in the 'Fred Darling':

1/1—Dabyah (soft)

1/2—Poet’s Princess (good to soft)

 

3.05: Having won four of the last eight and five of the last 14 renewals on turf, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card and in their Haydock winner BARNEY ROY, the yard should be well represented. Snapped up by the Godolphin team following that sole start, ‘Barney’ is fancied to step up in class to winning effect before moving on the better things this season.  Talking of Godolphin, the blue colours are also carried by DREAM CASTLE giving the team a stand out chance in this year’s renewal.  VIA SERENDIPTY is offered up as the value for money alternative each way shout.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 18 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

 

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have won 17 of the last 18 renewals on turf, whilst the relevant vintage representatives have secured 55 of the last 67 available toteplacepot positions in the process.  Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 12 contests during the last 18 years whilst claiming 36 toteplacepot positions. The pick of the five vintage representatives this time around are GEORGE WILLIAM (Drawn 7/23), FASTNET TEMPEST (4) and STORM AHEAD (14) according to my slide rule, given that six of the seven four-year-old winners during the last twelve years had carried a maximum weight of 8-12.  CHELSEA LAD (15) is added into the equation, despite Ryan Moore’s mount having to carry two pounds over the ‘superior’ weight barrier.  The four ‘selections’ just about cover the width of the track where the ‘stall scenario’ should not present a problem from a Placepot perspective.  Overnight moves have been noted for Donncha and Master Carpenter for those of you that follow ‘overnight money’.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via 17 renewals during the last 18 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 13 of the last 17 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.

Draw factor' (eight furlongs) - recent results listed first:

5-14-6-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

11-25-3-6 (23 ran-good)

21-9-1-7 (25 ran-good to soft)

7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)

10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)

12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)

20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)

11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)

11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)

22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)

26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)

14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)

20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)

Your first 30 days for just £1

6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)

14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)

Record of the course winner in the Spring Cup:

1/3—Boomshackerlacker (good to firm)

 

4.15: Roger Varian has saddled two of the last seven winners (turf stats) and his Frankel colt COMMANDER is expected to figure prominently with Roger having declared that he “ticks all the boxes”.  Jungle drums have been beating for CALL TO MIND for some time and carrying the colours of The Queen, Ryan Moore’ mount should also run well for the William Haggas team.  William intimated this time last year that although he liked the February foal a lot, this would be his year.  Having missed last season entirely, let’s hope that the assessment was correct.

Favourite factor: Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged (ignoring the all-weather winner last year - only two market leaders have scored during the last decade), though seven of the last eight jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

4.45: It’s a shame that this race attracted so many (seemingly) no-hopers because the main protagonists in each division would have made a good race to witness had they clashed.  John Gosden looks set to improve a fantastic week having declared DHAMLAM, though The Queen has another interesting runner on the card in MUSICAL TERMS.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby all the same stats apply.  Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged (ignoring the all-weather winner last year - only two market leaders have scored during the last decade), though seven of the last eight jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday followed by their five years stats at the course + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Richard Hannon (33/319 – loss of 120 points)

6—Wiliam Haggas (22/121 – loss of 14 points)

5—Roger Charlton (10/89 – loss of 22 points)

5—John Gosden (32/158 – Profit of 12 points)

4—Brian Meehan (14/142 – loss of 17 points)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (13/83 – loss of 16 points)

3—Ralph Beckett (16/104 – Profit of 5 points)

3—Richard Fahey (10/75 – Profit of 15 points)

3—Charlie Hills (11/155 – loss of 75 points)

3—Rod Millman (0/37)

3—Hughie Morrison (8/97 – loss of 21 points)

3—Marcus Tregoning (2/38 – loss of 28 points)

3—Roger Varian (8/72 – loss of 29 points)

2—Marco Botti (5/54 – loss of 11 points)

2—David Menuisier (1/7 – Slight profit)

2—William Muir (2/35 – loss of 25 points)

2—Aidan O’Brien (0/5)

2—Hugo Palmer (6/24 – Profit of 23 points)

2—Amanda Perrett (4/40 – Profit of 12 points)

2—David Simcock (7/44 (loss of 13 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £142.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Nottingham: £8,399.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Thirsk: £186.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Bangor: £516.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £158.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced