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Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 19

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years on Day One:

2017: £585.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,219.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £522.47

45 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 78.0% units went through – 11/10* - 5/1 – 12/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

Race 3: 59.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 14/1 – 11/4*

Race 4: 25.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 12/1 – 6/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 10/1 – 5/1 – 12/1

Race 6: 9.6% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 12/1 – 25/1 (13/8)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 15 (Rhododendron) & 3 (Benbati)

Leg 2 (3.05): 20 (Swergai Prokofiev), 7 (Calyx) & 23 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Lady Aurelia) & 2 (Blue Point)

Leg 4 (4.20): 8 (U S Navy Flag), 9 (Without Parole) & 10 (Wooton)

Leg 5 (5.00): 7 (Chelkar), 20 (Coeur De Lion), 1 (Whiskey Sour) & 11 (Look My Way)

Leg 6 (5.35): 9 (Laaraib), 13 (Sharja Bridge) & 15 (Yucatan)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30:  Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of RHODODRENDON and BENBATI, horses that possess other firm trends in their favour.  Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes in very much the best stepping stone for this event and RHODODENDRON won the event this year with Aiden O’Brien’s raider returning to the type of form he showed of old.  It’s worth noting that Aidan’s two winners during the last decade ran in the ‘Lockinge’ in their previous races, albeit without winning their respective contests.  No trainer has saddled more ‘Queen Anne’ winners that Saeed Bin Suroor (seven in total) whereby we know that BENBATI has been laid out for the contest for some considerable time.  With Saeed having saddled his last winner in the race back in 2007, few people would deny the original ‘blue trainer’ another victory.  A far as jockeys are concerned, we have to focus on Ryan Moore (RHODODENDRON) whose record since 2013 stands at 45% in terms of his mounts finishing in the first three, 21% of which were winners! Indeed, Ryan set a post war record in 2015 by riding nine winners at the meeting. Recoletros is the nomination for the overnight reserve, whilst the pick of the big outsiders could prove to be Beat The Bank who although trounced by Aidan’s projected favourite in the Lockinge has, at least, got race fitness back on his side this time around.  That said, the last ten winners have all emerged from the front three in the market.  Frankie Dettori would have been trying to take the outright lead in the ‘jockey stakes’ in the race but for missing out on a ride, having the same number of winners (six in total) as Sir Gordon Richards.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored in the last twenty one years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the five course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:

1/4—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

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1/2—Benbati (good to firm)

1/3—Century Dream (soft)

1/3—Limato (goot to firm)

1/2—Lord Glitters (soft)

 

3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 22 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles two runners this time around, the pick of which looks to be his Scat Daddy colt SERGAI PORKOFIEV. That said, THE IRISH ROVER won at the Lockinge meeting at Newbury is taking style suggesting that Aidan’s ‘second string’ is no forlorn hope, especially from a Placepot perspective.  No trainer has even equalled Aiden’s record in the race, let alone beaten his record.  A victory for John Gosden’s Kingman raider CALYX would put a smile on the trainer’s face, the sire having only been beaten (half a length) in the 2014 renewal of the 2000 Guineas in eight races during his wonderful career.  Speculative investors could do worse than have a small each way nibble with Advertise.  That said, eight of the last ten winners have emerged from the front three in the market.

Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  

Record of the two course winners in the Coventry Stakes:

1/1—Blown By Wind (good to firm)

1/1—Getchagetchagetcha (good to soft)

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years: 

11 winners—9 placed—25 unplaced.

'Starting prices stats in the last 15 years: 

7/1 or less: 12 winners—-10 placed—-31 unplaced

15/2 or more: 3 winners—-20 placed-—181 unplaced

28/1 or more: No winners-—6 placed—-87 unplaced

Foaling stats in the last 15 years:

January: 1 winner & 7 places

February: 6 winners & 7 places

March: 5 winners & 9 places

April: 3 winners & 5 places

May: No winners & 2 places

 

3.40: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders and I find it difficult to pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done.  I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through.  Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal.  Then again, the man is all about selling himself on the bigger stage, so it works for him I guess.  We have been assured by media commentators this this event has long since looked to be a match between LADY AURELIA and BATTAASH, though sprint races in particular have long since had a habit of producing ‘pear shaped’ results.  Both horses have obvious claims via the form book but tell me something; if the form book is the be all and end all of racing, why are there so many bookmakers rubbing their hands with glee this morning?  Indeed, this is the perfect type of race for layers, with punters anxious to get their cash on two horses which ‘couple’ at odds of around 1/2, with twelve other half decent rivals trying to lower their colours!  On the face of things bookmakers can’t lose because if the market leaders fight out the finish, layers have an even money chance of the right one winning for them, with only one placed horse in their books costing them money!  LADY AURELIA (been there and obtained the t-shirt) is my pick of the duo, though hopefully BLUE POINT will make the pair pull out all of the stops close home.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst 12 of the last 27 market leaders have secured Placepot positions going back further in time

Record of the five course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:

2/3—Blue Point (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Gifted Master (good to soft)

1/5—Washington DC (good to firm)

2/2—Lady Aurelia (Good to firm & soft)

1/1—Different League (good to firm)

 

4.20: Let’s get one thing straight to start with.  Media commentators will be waxing lyrical about this event but it takes facts to back up big races and this renewal does not ‘cut the mustard’ I’m afraid.  The last five winners have averaged an official rating of 122, compared to the mark of 109 for Tuesday’s projected market leader.  There is no doubting the potential of John Gosden’s raider WITHOUT PAROLE but that said, his last win was in a Listed event at Sandown whereas last year’s winner was coming off the back off a second placed effort in the Group 1 2000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last seventeen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany gave Frankel a fright seven years ago.  Aidan saddles US NAVY FLAG who is a dual Group 1 winner, albeit as a juvenile.  There was plenty to like about his second placed effort in the Irish 2000 Guineas the last day, whilst my trio against the remaining seven contenders is completed by WOOTON who will represent decent Placepot value, as is the case for most overseas raiders.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 19 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 19 years was an 8/1 chance.  15 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (though the trends have not worked out well these last three years in all honesty), statistics which bring in the likes of four of the five Willie Mullins raiders into the equation, the pick of which arguably include CHELKAR and WHISKEY SOUR. Ten of the last twelve winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY additionally enter the overnight mix. Eight of the last ten winners emerged from the top four horses in the betting, whilst last nine of the last 14 winners carried weights ranging between 8-12 and 9-3, burdens which are carried by my two English contenders COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last nineteen years (three winners).  Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed.  I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post.  I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps.  My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race.  With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 22/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective. 

Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:  

1/6—Hassle (good)

1/1—Sam Missile (good to firm)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 18 renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest (previous contested on the Saturday of the five day meeting) whilst seventeen of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Putting the stats and facts together, I expect the trends to continue via the likes of LARAAIB, SHARJA BRIDGE and YUCATAN.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute’s raider MIRAGE DANCER only carries 16 ounces over the ‘superior barrier’ whereby Michael might finally take the trainer record from Sir Henry Cecil, the pair each having saddled a staggering 75 winners at the royal meeting.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course record of the course winner in the Listed Wolferton Handicap:

1/1—Laraaib (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 12th June

SALISBURY – JUNE 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £14.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 62.0% units went through – 6/5* - 9/1 – 11/1

Race 2: 74.6% of the remaining units when through – 15/2 – 2/1* - 7/2

Race 3: 58.6% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 9/2 – 25/1

Race 4: 49.4% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 4/1** - 33/1 (4/1**)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 2/1*

Race 6: 63.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 7/4*

 

  • Mal’s last five Placepot permutations have been successful, albeit some days showed a loss against stakes. That said, a profit over the five days was established.

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Certain Lad) & 1 (Urban Icon)

Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (Wufud) & 5 (Power Of Darkness)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Jurz), 4 (Pilot Wings) & 1 (Honourbound)

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Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Lucifugous), 6 (Quick Recovery) & 14 (Scimitar)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Sweet Charity), 1 (Burgonet), 4 (Last Enchantment) & 2 (Fabulous Red)

Leg 6 (4.30): 10 (Recordman) & 8 (King Lud)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: The first point to mention is that there are no course winners on today’s Salisbury Placepot card, in case you thought that the omission was an oversight!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that there seems very little reason in opposing the two winners in the field who look likely to finish in the frame at the very least, namely CERTAIN LAD and URBAN ICON.  The favourite factor below backs up this theory with the pair being listed in marginal order of preference, mainly because of Mick Channon’s great record here this season, his ratio standing at 4/10 before today’s play.  I guess for that reason alone, we should not entirely rule Mick’s ‘second string’ (Dr Smolder) out of the equation.

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.30: The same scenario is in place for race two as was the case in the opening event, with two horses dominating the market as dawn breaks over the city of Bristol this morning.  WUFUD is much shorter than POWER OF DARKNESS at the time of writing though I’ll wager there will not be much daylight between the pair at the jamstick.  The Marcus Tregoning comment about Sir Titan at Goodwood on Sunday proved to be spot on and the same scenario might be in place regarding Power Of Darkness this afternoon.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card.

 

3.00: Talking of Marcus Tregoning, the trainer has a 25/1 chance involved here and HONOURBOUND might outrun those odds with the trainer having scored with two of his last three runners.  That said, JURZ and PILOT WINGS could dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest as respective trainers Roger Varian and Roger Charlton meet head on again at Salisbury.  Their totals at Salisbury down the years; Varian (21% strike rate via 17 winners) & Charlton; 17% S/R via 69 gold medallists.  For the record, Marcus Tregoning’s ratio at Salisbury is a 12% strike rate via 22 winners.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby there is no history involved in this novice event.

 

3.30: Eight of the last nine winners have scored when carrying a minimum burden of nine stones and after taking potential ‘allowances’ into account, ten horses are left to assess.  I’m opting for LUCIFUGOUS, QUICK RECOVERY and SCIMITAR to get us safely through a trappy contest.  David O’Meara has not come to close to winning via his previous four runners at the track down the years but that said, LUCIFUGOUS attracted support overnight and looking at the stats below in the favourite factor column, anything is possible in this event!

Favourite factor: There are three successful market leaders to report from the last decade though be warned, as other gold medallists scored at 40/1, 20/1, 16/1, 14/1, 10/1 (twice) & 9/1 during the period.

 

4.00: Three-year-olds will make it seven winners in a row in this contest today, with all four declarations hailing from the vintage.  Regular readers will be well aware of my stand in these open looking ‘win only’ events, whereby I will offer all four runners into the Placepot equation, hoping that the winner carries the least amount of units into the race.  If the proverbial gun was pointed at my head to name the winner, I guess I would opt for Sweet Charity, albeit oh so marginally.

Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged in the last ten years though the race from a punter’s perspective is not as bad as the previous contest on the card, as the average priced winner is this event was 9/2 during the study period.  Half of the market leaders (5/10) finished in the frame.

 

4.30: The overnight trade price quote of 4/1 for RECORDMAN might prove to be somewhat fanciful by flag fall, with Saeed Bin Suroor’s Dubawi having attracted plenty of money since yesterday evening. Six of Saeed’s last fourteen runners have won, whilst 52% of his 31 winners at Salisbury down the year have hailed from his (relevant) three-year-old representatives.  KING LUD might prove to be the rival to offer most resistance on the run to the line.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new contest on the Salisbury programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 19th May

NEWBURY – MAY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £131.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 46.4% units went through – 3/1* & 4/1

Race 2: 25.7% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 – 7/1 – 11/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 7/2* - 9/1

Race 4: 67.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/2 – 25/1

Race 5: 48.8% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* & 20/1

Race 6: 27.5% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4 & 15/2 (2/1)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Shababby), 4 (Juliet Capulet) & 3 (Eqtidaar)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Crystal Ocean) & 2 (Raheen House)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Chief Ironside), 7 (He’s Amazing) & 3 (Dukhan)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Addeybb), 4 (Beat The Bank) & 12 (Suedois)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Itstheonlyway) & 6 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (Stream Song), 4 (Crystal Hope) & 2 (Arcadian Cat)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50 (Carnarvon Stakes): 'Team Hannon' has secured three of the last eight contests, though it’s a big ask for 33/1 chance All Out to improve the ratio this time around in what I consider to be the best race on the card. That would not be difficult given the line up in the Lockinge this season which media commentators will no doubt describe as a wonderful renewal!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that SHABAABY, JULIET CAPULET and EQTIDAAR should all be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, the trio having been listed in order of preference.  Owen Burrows (Shabaaby) secured a 13/2 double on the Newmarket card yesterday, his recent ratio now standing at 4/9.  Accordingly, 8/1 looks a tad too big about Owen’s Kyllachy colt, albeit the ground remains an unknown factor given his two soft going successes to date.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last thirteen years during which time, ten gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

2.25 (Aston Park Stakes):  Four-year-olds have won 11 of the last 20 renewals of this Listed staying event and vintage representatives CRYSTAL OCEAN and RAHEEN HOUSE look sure to go close this time around.  The odds are extremely cramped about the first named Sir Michael Stoute raider, though the 11/2 quote (across the board early doors this morning) fopr RAHEEN HOUSE represents a potential each way play given the 11/8 place price in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have reached the frame (five winners), whilst the previous 18 winners had scored at odds of 8/1 or less before the 2016 gold medallist reared its ugly head at 14/1.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/4—Scarlet Dragon (Good to firm & good to soft)

 

3.00: The last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 whereby CHIEF IRONSIDE (drawn 1/11), HE’S AMAZING (9) and DUKHAN (2) will represent yours truly in my Placepot permutation on Saturday.  Horses drawn in the lowest three stall positions have produced five of the last seven winners, gaining at Placepot position between them on all seven occasions.  Last year’s 8/1 winner was described by yours truly as “the clear pick on this occasion”.  Connect (the complete outsider in the field) would have been considered had there been moisture in the turf.

Favourite factor: Six favourites (of one description or another) have prevailed during the study period, whilst 16 of the last 26 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – the most recent result listed first):

1-7-12 (13 ran-soft)

3-4-5 (15 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good)

7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good to firm)

14-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

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1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)

5-9-12 (12 ran-good)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good)

5-9-13 (13 ran-good)

6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

3 (3 ran-soft)

8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

 

3.40 (Group 1 Lockinge Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whilst the last eight winners carried official marks of 124-136-127-126-125-121-117-122 into the contest (average ratio of 125).  I suggested two years ago that the contest represented a drop in class which proved to be the case via the ‘117 winner’ and with this year’s runners offering an average figure of 113, much can be said for this latest renewal.  This factor suggests that outsiders should be considered alongside those towards the head of the market, perhaps none more so than a 25/1 chance, namely SUEDOIS, albeit the lack of a recent run tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.  As short as 14/1 in two places this morning, 25/1 is available with Betfair and Paddy Power at the time of writing.  Horses towards the top of the market that grab my attention include the improving four-year-old raiders ADDEYBB and BEAT THE BANK.  This is a Group 1 race in name only.  Only if Limato were to win well could we carried away with the performance of the winner, though investors in Henry Candy’s representative know that seeing out the mile trip is taken on trust.  That said, connections couldn’t have wished for an easier opportunity, especially on ground that will offer the Tagula gelding every chance of lasting home.  From a Placepot perspective however, Harry Bentley’s mount will not offer value for money, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: The last 20 winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (eleven winning favourites), whilst twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.  Seven of the last eleven market leaders have won (joint favourites were recorded three years ago), as have ten favourites during the last fifteen years.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-4-9 (8 ran-soft)

6-7-2 (12 ran-good)

3-15-6 (16 ran-good)

3-2-5 (8 ran--good to firm)

5-7-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (6 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-6-2 (11 ran-soft)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

7-8-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

10-2-3 (9 ran-soft)

5-1-11 (8 ran-firm)

3-8-14 (15 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good)

7-8-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

1-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (6 ran-soft)

8-4-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

Record of the course winner in the 'Lockinge':

1/2—Limato (good to firm)

 

4.15:  Newbury continues to be the flat (turf) track to target in Placepot wagers.  When I wrote my first Placepot book back in 1994, Newbury was the top venue in terms of average Placepot dividends on the level and not much has changed.  Before I go any further I should report one startling fact from my perspective in that Richard Hannon (the younger) has already saddled well over 400 horses at Newbury, 53% of which were juveniles, stats which have produced 25 relevant gold medallists.  Richard has won this event in each of the last two years and has offered the green light to his dual winner ITSTHEONLYWAY on this occasion.  Bookmakers are likely to take THE IRISH ROVER on I’ll wager, given that Aiden O’Brien’s January foal ‘slept in the stalls’ at Ascot recently before making up the ground when the race had already been as good as lost.  A break on even terms can surely result in a Placepot position today, at the very least.

Favourite factor:

Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (2/1) favourite from a win perspective.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-8 (6 ran-soft)

5-1-6 (8 ran-good)

3-7-4 (8 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Dave Dexter (good to soft)

 

4.50: John Gosden has claimed two of the last seven renewals of this fascinating Placepot finale and the popular trainer saddles STREAM SONG this time around.  It’s worth noting that John was responsible for the beaten (2/1) favourite in the race twelve months ago however, whereby I feel duty bound to include CRYSTAL HOPE and ARCADIAN CAT in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last thirteen years, whilst eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 12th May

ASCOT – MAY 12

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £294.10 (7 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)

2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)

2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £406.40 - 47 favourites - 13 winners - 8 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Master Singer), 9 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Count Calabash)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Mirage Dancer) & 6 (God Given)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Urban Fox), 7 (Dynamic) & 2 (Queen Of Time)

Leg 4 (4.00): 23 (Pouvoir Magique), 10 (Escobar), 14 (Sabador) & 15 (Kynren)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Dave Dexter) & 4 (Dark Shadow)

Leg 6 (5.10): 5 (Madame Bounty), 10 (Moonraker) & 4 (Red Tycoon)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 20 available Placepot positions via 52% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the seven winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The nine vintage representatives this time around are 4/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted. My preferred short listed trio in order of preference is MASTER SINGER, HUMBLE HERO and COUNT CALABASH.  Speedo Boy is offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared four Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include two (9/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Manjaam (good to firm)

 

2.50: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the twelve contests to date, whilst ten of the last eleven gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion, whereby four-year-olds MIRAGE DANCER and GOD GIVEN are taken to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  MIRAGE DANCER was the subject of overnight support, whilst GOD GIVEN is trained by Luca Cumani who got back on the winning trail on Friday.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winning market leaders.

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 24 of the 35 available Placepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the five vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be URBAN FOX, DYNAMIIC and QUEEN OF TIME, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

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Favourite factor: Only four of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (15 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of POUVOIR MAGIQUE (drawn 4/29), ESCOBAR (26), SABADOR (14) and KYNREN (2) emerges.  The reserve nomination is awarded to SHADY MCCOY (21).  It’s worth noting that although four-year-olds made up one third of the total number of runners last year (8/24), vintage representatives snared the Tricast between them which was declared at £1,732.80.  Out of interest, four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion, with all four of my Placepot entries representing the vintage.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include four winners.

Draw details for the last twelve years (most recent renewal listed first):

18-23-11-26 (24 ran-good to firm – 5/1*-8/1-25/1-33/1)

29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)

23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)

25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)

13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)

2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)

7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)

21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)

1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)

13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)

16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)

9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)

Record of the course winners in the Victoria Cup:

1/4—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

1/5—Shady McCoy (good to soft)

2/4—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)

1/1—Louie De Palma (good to firm)

 

4.35: In some reports, this was listed as a new race last year which I could not fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.  It was (as far as I can detect) only classed as a new event because of the prefix ‘novice’ which was attached to the contest. Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that seven newcomers have been declared, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be DARK SHADOW.  Either way, DAVE DEXTER (winner on debut at Newbury - entered up for a big race at the back end of the season) looks a fairly safe conveyance to get us through to the finale.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4—9/4**-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.

 

5.10: 18 of the 26 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1.  Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-3 from a win perspective via just the seven renewals).  MADAME BOUNTY is the win and place call, whilst older horses such as MOONRAKER (see stats below) and RED TYCOON (runs off a three pound lower mark despite finishing second in the race last year) can bustle up the younger set this time around.

Favourite factor: All six previous market leaders finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 7/2 favourite sent some of the punters home in a happy frame of mind.

Draw details:

22-21-8-16 (20 ran-good to firm – 7/2*-20/1-7/1-8/1)

2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)

1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)

4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)

3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)

9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)

7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Moonraker (good to soft & good to firm) – Ascot is the only venue where Moonraker has won via 32 assignments to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 12th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.40 Market Rasen : The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd after 3 out, ridden after last, kept on towards finish, beaten by little more than a length)

We end a disappointing week with Saturday's...

6.45 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stonific @ 6/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6,  1m4f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good to firm ground worth £6728 to the winner... 

Why?

This is a very lightly raced, but in-form 5 yr old gelding. Just 5 starts to date and only two on turf so far. He was only beaten by a length as a runner-up on his turf debut at Doncaster when staying on late over 1m2f before winning last time out a fortnight ago.

That was at Haydock in a Class 4 handicap where he stayed on well again to get up by a neck, once again looking like a longer trip would suit him better. He gets that (+1.5f) today and with the yard's first choice jockey booked, more is expected today.

That jockey is Danny Tudhope and he rides this Thirsk track really well, winning 42 of 217 (19.4% SR) races here since 2011, generating profits of 104.4pts (+48.1% ROI) along the way for those who like to follow certain jockeys at certain tracks.

Trainer David O'Meara's horses are in very good nick right now too, as exemplified by 11 winners from 57 (19.3% SR) for 31pts (+54.4% ROI) over the last two weeks with those running on turf winning 11 of 51 (21.6%) for 37pts (+72.5%). Of these 51 Flat (turf) runners...

  • handicappers are 9/39 (23.1%) for 38.5pts (+98.8%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 9/25 (36%) for 43.3pts (+173.2%)
  • handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope are 7/18 (38.9%) for 39.8pts (+221.2%)
  • here at Thirsk : 2/8 (25%) for 19.4pts (+242.5%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope here at Thirsk : 1/3 (33.3%) for 16.05pts (+535%)

Those recent trainer/jockey figures are no purple patch nor a surprise, as since the start of the 2012 season, Messrs O'Meara & Tudhope have teamed up 1314 times in Flat (turf) handicaps, winning 217 (16.5% SR) of them for profits of 222.7pts at an decent ROI of 16.9%, from which...

  • here at Thirsk : 17/80 (21.25%) for 33.5pts (+41.8%)
  • and this season alone = 9/27 (33.3%) for 46.7pts (+172.9%) already!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stonific @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.25pm on Friday (although I've just taken 7/1 with Sky). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 8th May

EXETER – MAY 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,815.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.6% units went through – 4/9* & 5/1

Race 2: 1.7% of the remaining units when through – 20/1 (Win only) – (4/11)

Race 3: 35.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 3/1 (11/4)

Race 4: 24.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/4 (11/10)

Race 5: 40.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 7/4*

Race 6: 48.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2 & 7/2 (7/4)

 

*Point of Order – Although there are no scheduled ‘win only’ races on the card, it’s as well to digest the fact that such races can have a dramatic effect on Placepot dividends, as was the case at the corresponding meeting twelve months ago.

The second race on the card was won by a 20/1 chance which in Placepot terms relating to the units that went up in smoke, turned out to be a 56/1 scenario!  The ‘transparency’ was extended by the fact that two non-runners created the ‘win only’ event, units which were transferred onto the favourite via Placepot rules.

Similarly, the fourth race was won by the 7/4 second favourite, but the winner was selected by less than 25% of the clients who held remaining tickets at the time.

Just six runners are entered for the 7.50 event tonight whereby you should ensure that two runners (or more) are not withdrawn – before you place your Placepot wagers!

 

Tueday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (5.50): 10 (Secret Escape) & 12 (Tillythetank)

Leg 2 (6.20): 4 (Champ) & 12 (Rockpoint)

Leg 3 (6.50): 3 (Coningsby), 15 (Eddy) & 1 (Katy P)

Leg 4 (7.20): 1 (Marquis Of Carabas), 7 (Lip Service) & 9 (Innocent Girl)

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Leg 5 (7.50): 5 (The Two Amigos) & 6 (Mistress Massini)

Leg 6 (8.20): 11 (Grey Diamond), 3 (Net De Treve) & 12 (Jeremiah James)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.50: The first two races on the card appear to be ‘match events’ if early indications from the exchanges are to be believed.  It would certainly create a huge surprise/potentially massive Placepot dividend here if both SECRET ESCPAE and TILLYTHETANK finished out of the frame.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Exeter.

 

6.20: CHAMP and ROCKPOINT should similarly dominate the second contest on the card.

Favourite factor: Another new event on the Exeter programme but given the strength of the projected favourites/well fancied pair of horses in each of the first two races on the card, I’m not at all sure these contests will in in place twelve months hence.

 

6.50: EDDY has secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety via five assignments at this venue down the years and though I am invariable well wide of the mark relating to Sue Gardner’s runners (they win of I ignore them and flop when I take the plunge), 16/1 looks a tad over the top about EDDY who recorded the victory here on (good) going which should be in place tonight.  That said, Tom Lacey came into this meeting last year having scored with two of his previous four runners and sure enough, the horse I focussed on (in the last race this evening) obliged at 5/2.  Tom’s run of hot form is even better this year (current ratio of 16/33) and his only runner on the card runs in this event, namely CONINGSBY. My trio against the field is completed by KATY P who has the fast conditions in favour for another decent offering in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite scored though bookmakers have not had things going all their way, with six of the last eight gold medallists having won at a top price of 5/1.  Only one of the last six market leaders has secured a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Zero Grand (good to soft)

1/2—Just A Sting (good to soft)

1/2—Jully Les Buxy (soft)

1/5—Eddy (good)

 

7.20: Eight-year-olds won all four of the renewals when represented which suggests that the lone vintage representative MARQUIS OF CARABAS could outrun his current 12/1 odds which are in place with several bookmakers at the time of writing.  Fergal O’Brien has wasted little time in entering LIP SERVICE now that the ground has improved, whilst INNOCENT GIRL has to be included for similar (ground) reasons alongside her impressive consistency.  Harry Fry’s mare is a winner of three of her eight races on good ground thus far.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have prevailed, though the other pair of market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Casper King (soft)

1/5—Triple Chief (soft)

2/8—Bredon Hill Lad (soft & heavy)

 

7.50: As was the case in the previous race on the card, eight-year-olds have the best recent record here having secured four victories during the last decade.  This fact will offer confidence to connections of Creative Inerta I’ll wager though according to form figures, both THE TWO AMIGOS and MISTRESS MASSINI will take plenty of kicking out of the Placepot frame.  Indeed, the booking of William Biddick looks particularly significant relating to the latter named raider.

Favourite factor: The last eleven winners (in as many years) have scored at 6/1 or less, statistics which include four winning favourites.

 

8.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewal and the trade press prices of relevant declarations GREY DIAMOND and JEREMIAH JAMES should not put you off their respective chances in the last leg of our favourite wager.  Indeed, their 10/1 and 16/1 quotes look wide of the mark with likelier starting prices of around 6/1 and 9/1 (respectively) looking entirely possible.  NET DE TRVE and RUFIO are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed, four of which returned at odds varying between 11/1 and 16/1.  The last five favourites have finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 30th April

THIRSK – APRIL 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £364.40 (7 favourites – 1 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

For readers who want to find the corresponding results for last year – look for Sunday 30th April details.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Thirsk: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Me Before You) & 5 (Mecca’s Spirit)

Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Dutch Coed) & 2 (Redrosezorro)

Leg 3 (2.55): 1 (Motahassen) & 12 (Majestic Stone)

Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Bacacarat) & 7 (Tamkeen)

Leg 5 (4.05): 10 (Pennsylvania Dutch), 9 (Kupa River) & 11 (My Name Is Rio)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Battle Commence) & 10 (Rotherhithe)

Suggested stake: 96 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Point of order – Given the horrendous weather forecast for certain areas today, limited stakes should be applied from my viewpoint; hence the small permutation – by my standards!

 

1.50: MECCA’S SPIRIT could be a different proposition as a three-year-old having offered little encouragement via four juvenile assignments.  I just prefer the chance of ME BEFORE YOU however, especially as Daniel Tudhope has been offered the ride.  Daniel was set to rise to massive stardom a few years ago and though he is riding his fair share of winners, great things have yet to materialise, though it is (comparatively) early days in his career.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (via three renewals) has secured a Placepot position thus far, whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

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2.20: Top weight has not stopped money trickling through on the exchanges overnight for DUTCH COED, albeit a claimer has reduced the burden.  That said, apprentices have also been booked for the horses just below the tentative (each way) selection whereby the reduction in pounds and ounces is not quite as useful as appears at first glance.  REDROSEZORRO is one of the horses in question and Eric Alston’s raider has the assistance of Rachel Richardson in the plate as the Foxwedge gelding goes in search of his four-timer.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 favourite just missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Redrosezorro (good to soft)

1/7—Space War (good to firm)

 

2.55: MOTAHASSEN has his first run for Declan Carroll here and with Daniel Tudlope coming in for another potentially decent ride at the meeting, it is no surprise that there has been money in the dead of night for the four-year-old Lonhro gelding.  Declan has saddled two of his last six runners to winning effect (alongside a silver medallist during the period) and when the money is down, Declan’s raiders usually know what is asked of them.  MAJESTIC STONE is offered up as the potential danger.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.

 

3.30: Although the last nine runners saddled by Andrew Balding have all been beaten, three of his last five representatives have finished second in their respective events and Andrew’s three runners at the track on Monday should be respected accordingly.  The first of his southern based raiders is BACACARAT who seems to have been found an ideal opportunity to go close at the second time of asking this season.  Standing his way is TAMKEEN who would only need to make any normal amount of improvement from two to three (whatever that is) to make his presence felt in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Thirsk card.

 

4.05: MY NAME IS RIO could (I repeat could) have good to soft conditions to race on, the type of ground which brought about a course victory earlier in his career, whereby Conor Beasley’s mount might outrun his 25/1 quote at the time of writing.  PENNSYLVANIA DUTCH is another ‘outsider’ I could consider. Kevin Ryan has saddled two of his five runners here at Thirsk this season to winning effect and it is worth noting that this Dutch Art gelding has attracted a little support on the exchanges overnight. The other potential each way play in the race is KUPA RIVER according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Muscika (good)

1/7—My Name Is Rio (good to soft)

 

4.35: Money has arrived overnight for BATTLE COMMENCE and it’s worth noting that trainer David O’Meara has certainly started this season in far better form that he finished last term, albeit he is still to reach the high standards he set before the decline in set in.  ROTHERHITHE is the main threat if she can build on three solid silver medal efforts last season.

Favourite factor: Both of the (6/4 & 15/8) favourites have obliged to date.

 

Record of the course winners in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.35:

1/2—Melabi (good) – Won the race last year – too big at 25/1 for new (Micky Hammond) yard?

1/3—Dyna Might (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 21st April

NEWBURY – APRIL 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £24.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 30.7% units went through – 9/2 – 9/2 – 12/1 (3/1)

Race 2: 58.8% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 25/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 69.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 9/4* - 8/1

Race 4: 29.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 16/1 – 10/1 – 10/1 (7/2)

Race 5: 87.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* - 5/2 – 4/1

Race 6: 92.8% of the units secured the dividend – 100/1 – 5/2 – 6/5*

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 10 (Humbolt Current) & 11 (Mapped)

Leg 2 (2.00): 3 (Cool To Mind) & 4 (Defoe)

Leg 3 (2.35): 11 (Tajaanus), 9 (Natural) & 1 (All Out)

Leg 4 (3.10): 4 (Expert Eye) & 6 (Hey Gaman)

Leg 5 (3.45): 22 (Gilgamesh), 19 (Graphite Storm), 20 (Keyser Soze) & 21 (Mazyoun)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (He’s Amazing), 11 (Jack Crow) & 15 (Ta Allak)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Please note that as part of this card was transferred to Chelmsford two years ago with Newbury having been abandoned, I have completely ignored those results.  The draw would obviously not have been valid and the whole context of the meeting was ‘lost’ from my viewpoint (divided thoughts of trainers/changes in declarations etc), whereby I have decided that my stats are classed as ‘turf only stats’.  I hope you are in agreement with this decision though that said, the judge’s decision is final!

 

**Further notice relates to the weather in this part of the world (Bristol), especially given the overnight “good to soft” quote for Newbury.  Thunderstorms have been forecast to break out in certain areas at any time of the day, whereby you should keep an eye out on the weather front to see how much (if any) rain has fallen at Newbury.  This is especially of interest, given that nearly all the course winners (listed after each race) require some cut in the ground.  If the ground dries up as much as it has done these last few days, connections might withdraw their runners and we know what an effect on the Placepot that scenario can have!  I will update weather in Bristol on my Twitter page leading up to flag fall in the opening event at 1.25.

 

1.25: Only MAPPED is standing up in any shape or form against the favourite HUMBOLT CURRENT with this pair fully expected to pull clear of the remainder with half a furlong or more to run, the pick of which (at a distance) might prove to be Coolongolook.

Favourite factor: Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last ten years (first and third five years ago).  COOL TO MIND was a winner on this corresponding card twelve months ago and the William Haggas raider might not be quite as ‘ground dependent’ as DEFOE who would appreciate showers in the lead up to the contest.  If the four-year-old trend is to be stopped in its tracks, DANEHILL KODIAC could prove to be the joker in the pack, especially following overnight support.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'John Porter':

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1/1—Call To Mind (good to firm)

2/2—Defoe (2 x soft)

3/10—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

2.35: Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ five years ago in a career which spanned over forty years.  Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998.  Richard 'junior’ saddled the ‘Chelmsford winner’ recently and his three runners offer the chance of the Hannon tradition gaining momentum.  NATURAL would not appreciate more cut (connections hoping that any rain in the area fails to materialise), though stable companion ALL OUT would probably benefit for a shower or two.  Richard’s short priced raider TAJAANUS would probably like the ground just as it is at the time of writing given his 3/5 ratio under such conditions.  Whatever the weather then, Richard should secure Placepot positions, with at least one of his representatives reaching the frame.  Givota and course winner Hikmaa are others to consider.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winners in the 'Fred Darling':

1/1—Hikmaa (soft)

 

3.05: Having won five of the last nine and six of the last 15 renewals on turf, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card, though a Hannon representative is only visible by its absence on this occasion unfortunately.  Whether the team spied the likes of EXPERT EYE and HEY GAMAN waiting in the wings is an unknown factor of course though either way, there is no disputing the fact that this pair possess leading claims this time around. Connect and Raid offer speculative investors a chance of going close at inflated odds from my viewpoint, though this original ‘dead eight’ event has been thwarted by an early withdrawal.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 19 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the 'Greenham':

1/1—Expert Eye (good)

1/1—Hey Gaman (soft)

1/1—James Garfield (good)

 

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have won 18 of the last 19 renewals on turf between them, whilst the relevant vintage representatives have secured 59 of the last 71 available Placepot positions in the process.  Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 13 contests during the last 19 years whilst claiming 40 Placepot positions. The pick of the five vintage representatives this time around are GILGAMESH (Drawn 17/24), GRAPHITE STORM (9), KEYSER SOZE (1) and MAZYOUN (7) according to my slide rule, given that six of the eight four-year-old winners during the last thirteen years had carried a maximum weight of 8-12.  Favourite backers are still enduring nightmares about the well backed 7/2 market leader (Chelsea Lad) which was pulled up before the race had barely begun twelve months ago.  The favourite carried 28.4% of the live Placepot units into the contest adding salt into a very deep wound.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via 18 renewals during the last 19 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 14 of the last 18 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.

Draw factor' (eight furlongs) - recent results listed first:

12-8-4-7 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-14-6-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

11-25-3-6 (23 ran-good)

21-9-1-7 (25 ran-good to soft)

7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)

10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)

12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)

20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)

11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)

11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)

22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)

26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)

14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)

20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)

6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)

14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)

Record of the course winner in the Spring Cup:

1/3—Graphite Storm (good to soft)

 

4.20: This looks to be a far more open event that was the case in the first heat which opened the Newbury programme.  So much so in fact that three runners are required to try and ensure that we secure the dividend if we were live going into the Placepot finale.  My trio against the remaining twelve contenders consists of HE’S AMAZING, JACK CROW and Roger Varian’s newcomer TA ALLAK.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card, whereby the same stat apply. Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.

 

Record of the course winner in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.30:

1/1—Rake’s Progress (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th September

HAYDOCK - SEPTEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £2,739.60 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 7 (Time Chaser) & 2 (Empress Ali)

Leg 2 (1.50): 5 (Learn By Heart), 3 (Dex Ex Bee) & 2 (Dark Acclaim)

Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Tasleet), 1 (Brando) & 11 (Spirit Of Valour)

Leg 4 (3.00): 10 (Soie D’Leau), 12 (Mayleaf Shine) & 6 (Aleef)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Morando) & 2 (Victory Bond)

Leg 6 (4.10): 3 (Jaameh),10 (Sepal) & 11 (Compton Mill)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: The main advice today is simply to bet for fun, with yours truly not expecting potential investors to stake much more that their minimum risks on ground today which will probably look appalling by the end of play.  The Placepot advice above is ONLY offered because of my success yesterday, never wishing to ask readers to invest more that they can afford.  For this reason I would urge you where possibly to team with a friend or two and stake accordingly on a day when fun should far outweigh risk.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that TIME CHASER and EMPRESS ALI should get us safely through to the second leg between them, with Company Asset offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position. Horses filled the frame at 12/1-14/1-12/1, setting up a great (£2,739.60) Placepot dividend straight away!

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

7-3-9 (9 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the first race:

1/2—Reach For The Stars (soft)

2/6—Intense Tango (good to soft)

 

1.50: The main protagonists have all won on soft ground whilst the going will be even worse form what we have read overnight.  Ladbrokes have had to trim back LEARN BY HEART, the ‘magic sign’ having been out of line with the other main layers overnight.  4/1 still looks a reasonable price but that said on this ground, I’m just content to give the Haggas representative his Placepot chance alongside DEX EX BEE and DARK ACCLAIM in a race that should provide a lot of clues for next season.

Favourite factor: Nine market leaders to date (via eight renewals) in which five gold medals have been secured alongside two of the silver variety.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-3 (6 ran-soft)

1-3 (5 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

6-4 (5 ran-good to soft)

1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-8 (5 ran-good)

1-2 (6 ran-soft)

Haydock record of runners in the second event:

1/2—Veejay (good)

 

2.25: Nine of the last fifteen winners have been returned in double figures in this Group 1 event, which certainly confirms my feelings that sprinting at the top level has left a lot to be desired for a number of years.  Three-year-olds have held the call during the last twelve years having claimed six gold medals, which offers all of us a semblance of hope in terms of potential stars of the future emerging in races at the ‘top level’.  Three-year-old SPIRIT OF VALUE is the each way value for money call at 25/1 with three leading firms this morning (Bet365, Hills & Paddy Power) whilst of the more likely winners of the contest, BRANDO and TASLEET make most appeal.  If Blue Point handles the ground, Charlie Appleby’s raider could also be expected to outrun his 14/1 quote, though conditions are entirely an unknown factor as far as the Shamardal colt is concerned.  I have not been right once about The Tin Man as yet because I have missed out on all his victories, whilst he has run below his best when I have supported the five-year-old.  For the record I’m against him today, so you know what to do accordingly!

Favourite factor: Six of the last 19 favourites have prevailed, though just two of the other 13 market leaders have claimed additional toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-6-7 (14 ran-soft)

5-16-6 (15 ran-good to soft)

10-18-13 (17 ran-good)

2-14-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (13 ran-firm)

9-15-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

14-7-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

13-12-8 (14 ran-good to soft)

Race was contested at Doncaster in 2008--draw stats do not apply

6-1-7 (14 ran-good to firm)

10-3-4 (11 ran-heavy)

4-17-7 (17 ran-good)

14-5-4 (19 ran-good)

7-5-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

10-7-11 (14 ran-good to firm)

9-6-10 (12 ran-heavy)

7-12-3 (13 ran-heavy)

16-10-5 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (13 ran-good)

9-3-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

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Haydock record of runners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Brando (soft)

1/3—Magical Memory (good to firm)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good to firm)

1/1—Harry Angel (firm)

 

3.00: Three of the last seven renewals have been won by three-year-olds, whilst horses drawn high have done well under slow conditions.  Last year’s winner SOIE D’LEAU looks sure to be a popular horse having won the race twelve months ago on ground, whilst Silvestre De Sousa has been booked to ride.  7/1 is available almost right across the board, though the 11/2 quote by Bet Stars looks more realistic from my viewpoint. Stall 10/13 should be fine given the conditions (check the stats below), whereas the trio of three-year-olds have all been drawn low, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be MAYLEAF SHINE (trap six).  ALEEF looks a tad too big at 14/1 having been beaten as a market leader earlier in the week when needing the run.  Jim Crowley takes the ride and David O’Meara’s raider completes my trio against the field from stall eleven.

Favourite factor: Just three of the last nineteen renewals have been won by favourites, whilst 12 of the 2 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  Eight of the last fifteen winners have been returned in double figures.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

12-16-10 (12 ran-soft)

5-10-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

4-6-5 (11 ran- good)

8-10-11 (10 ran-good to soft)

13-15-9 (14 ran--firm)

1-8-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-2-16 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-6-7-3 (16 ran-good to soft)

11-10-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-7-2 (10 ran-heavy)

6-8-12 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12-6 (16 ran-good)

6-16-8 (15 ran-good to soft)

5-21-10-3 (23 ran-good to firm)

6-8-7-10 (21 ran-heavy)

8-9-5-7 (16 ran-heavy)

10-8-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

13-8-9 (12 ran-good)

Haydock record of runners in the fourth race:

1/3—Soie D’Leau (soft)

2/14—Confessional (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Midnight Malibu (good)

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, statistics which include the lone vintage representative in 2012 (Thistle Bird) which won at 3/1.  Vintage representatives are around the 9/4 mark to extend the good run before form is taken into account, with MORANDO marginally preferred to VICTORY BOND at the time of writing.  Benbati steps down in trip but least we know he will see out the mile which is more than we know about others in the contest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six (3/1-3/1-11/4-15/8-15/8-11/10) winners during the study period. That said, search parties are still to looking for the unplaced (Richard Hannon trained) 10/11 market leader who let punters down in 2013.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-7-2 (8 ran-soft)

4-2 (7 ran-soft)

6-1 (6 ran-good)

4-10-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (7 ran-firm)

1-9-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-6-7 (8 ran-good)

1-3-4 (10 ran-soft)

9-1-8 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-3 (5 ran-heavy)

3-2-4 (11 ran-good)

5-9-1 (8 ran-good)

5-6 (5 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the fifth event:

1/4—Mitchum Swagger (soft)

2/3—You’re Fired (good & good to soft)

1/1—Rusumaat (firm)

 

4.10: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured seven of the last twelve contests, whilst four-year-olds have claimed four of the last eight renewals. The ground might be pretty desperate by the time the flag falls on the last leg of our favourite wager whereby the weight trends might have to be viewed with a little more caution than usual.  Mark Johnston’s JAAMEH looks sure to give Jim Crowley another good ride this afternoon, the heavy ground course winner looking to stay on when others have cried enough.  Mark’s four-year-old has the steadier of 9-6 but with recent winners all having carried plenty of weight, JAAMEH is one of the more interesting wagers on the card at around the 15/2 mark.  Certainly, I don’t expect the 9/1 quotes by Bet365 and BetVictor to last long this morning.  Fellow four-year-old SEPAL must go close too, possibly alongside COMPTON MILL and MY REWARD.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won to date via 16 renewals, whilst 13 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Haydock record of runners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—My Reward (good to soft)

1/4—Tawdeea (soft)

1/2—Jaameh (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Haydock card (two or more) on Saturday – followed by their ratios and profit/loss figures over the first two days of the meeting:

7 runners—Mark Johnston (0/2)

6—Tim Easterby (0/5)

4—Richard Fahey (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

4—Kevin Ryan (0/3)

3—John Gosden

3—William Haggas (0/2)

3—David O’Meara (0/4)

2—Charlie Appleby (0/1)

2—Andrew Balding (1/1 +4)

2—Michael Bell

2—Karl Burke (0/5)

2—Robert Cowell

2—Michael Dods

2—Iain Jardine (0/2)

2—Aidan O’Brien

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £373.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Thirsk: £79.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Stratford: £134.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Kempton: £53.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £73.50 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 1st September

SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £49.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 5 (The Golden Cue), 8 (Kodiac Express) & 7 (Onefootinparadise)

Leg 2 (2.10): 4 (Our Lord), 1 (Babyfact) & 6 (Gnaad)

Leg 3 (2.45): 5 (Emaraaty) & 1 (Beachwalk)

Leg 4 (3.20): 1 (Bathsheba Bay), 8 (Graffiti Master) & 14 (Zaajer)

Leg 5 (3.55): 1 (Archetype), 6 (Robin Weathers) & 3 (Elucidation)

Leg 6 (4.25): 1 (Hellfire) & 4 (Anastazia)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: THE GOLDEN CUE tackles much faster ground here than was the case relating to his course and distance win the last day.  That said, ‘trap two’ gives Steph Hollinshead’s Zebedee gelding a fine chance to re-enact a front running performance here last month which resulted in a facile five length success.  The ground tends to retain more moisture up this five furlong chute at Sandown than over the round course whereby conditions might not be too fast for the March foal, certainly from a Placepot perspective.  KODIAC EXPRESS would been considered a big threat but for his stall 11 position, whilst ONEFOOTINPARADISE completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on a Sandown card which has bits and pieces of history relating to different fixtures down the years.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—The Golden Cue (soft)

 

2.10: Well over half of the 69 winners sent out by Malcolm Saunders during the last five years have registered their successes at Bath/Salisbury, though two have scored at this Esher venue, one of which is BABYFACT who recorded a fast ground course and distance victory 13 months ago.  The impressive five pound claimer Georgia Cox negates most the penalty dished out for her recent Bath success and OUR LORD will know he has been in a race I’ll wager, despite his even money quote this morning.  OUR LORD escapes a penalty for having completed a hat trick last time out, whereby you can understand why layers are hesitant to offer much more than 6/5 about his chance.  GNAAD has attracted money overnight, possibly having something to do with the fact that Alan Bailey has sent out two of his last four runners to winning effect.  Paddy Power’s 10/1 quote might not last long this morning.

Favourite factor: Both three-year-old 7/2 favourites have finished out with the washing to date behind successful five-year-old raider who scored at 7/1 & 11/2.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Babyfact (good to firm)

1/5—Secret Asset (good to firm)

 

2.45: You can ignore the 5/1 trade press quote about the well entered John Gosden newcomer EMARAATY this morning, with quotes between 7/4 and 9/4 in evidence at the time of writing.  I won’t go overboard about those prices because unraced horses can make a fool of us all, given that the market has yet to develop in terms of the amount of equity involved.  Sir Michael Stoute has his team in great form (four of his last seven runners have won) whereby the chance of BEACHWALK is also respected.

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Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have won this event, with market leaders coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.  The last eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1.  That said, the last four favourites that failed to win their respective events also missed out on Placepot positions.

 

3.20: High on numbers but short on potential winners according to the lack of overnight activity, heat two of the previous race looks set to be dominated by BATHSHEBA BAY and GRAFFITI MASTER, if we take brief trading on the exchanges seriously.  Richard Hannon (BATHSHEBA BAY) has saddled seven of his last 18 runners to winning effect whilst like Beachwalk in the previous contest, Ryan Moore has been booked to ride.  Although ZAAJER has drifted with a couple of firms as I home in on the second half of this fixture, it would be foolish to write off the chance of the Owen Burrows Shamardal colt, with the trainer having won with five of his last 10 runners during a period in which he also snared the silver medal with two of his beaten representatives.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous (seven furlong) contest on the card.

 

3.55: I offered Far Dawn as a decent each way bet at Bath on Thursday before Simon Crisford’s raider finished third at 14/1.  Similarly, I can’t let the 9/1 BetVictor quote about course winner ARCHITYPE slip my without having a win and place investment, albeit to moderate stakes.  Simon is another trainer who has his team in good form and his course winner is the first name on my team sheet, albeit closely followed by the likes of ROBIN WEATHERS and ELUCIDATION who more than deserve their respective places in a typically intriguing Sandown contest.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Sandown programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Archetype (good to firm)

 

4.25: Five of Hughie Morrison’s last eight runners have secured Placepot positions, two of them winning their respective events at odds of 9/2 & 4/5*. Available at 4/1 with three leading firms, I doubt that bookmakers will allow the Archipenko filly HELLFIRE to drift to a ‘bet to nothing’ price which offers a ‘free’ each way bet at 5/1 or more, given that investors would receive their stakes back in full, even if the four-year-old only manages to finished second or third in this 10 runner event.  The fact that ANASTAZIA has contested 10/25 races at Yarmouth is considered as something of a negative factor though that said, trainer Paul D’Arcy also has seven Newmarket results to take into account for his five-year-old mare whereby we can (hopefully) deduce that he has targeted races close to home with this inmate more often than not.  Either way, the fact the ANASTAZIA has finished ‘in the three’ in 14 races in all events suggests she is rarely far away, especially when taking into account 14 assignments when the Kyllachy mare has finished fourth!

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third of the new races on Sandown’s card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Hannon (6/40 – loss of 10 points)

3—John Gosden (3/20 – loss of 3 points)

3—Brian Meehan (3/12 – slight profit)

2—Ralph Beckett (1/13 – loss of 7 points)

2—Jim Boyle (1/6 +7)

2—Mick Channon (1/6 +4)

2—Jane Chapple-Hyam (No previous runners this season at Sandown)

2—Clive Cox (3/20 +9)

2—Iain Furtado (No previous runners)

2—Brett Johnson (0/1)

2—William Muir (0/4)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/9)

2—Amanda Perrett (0/7)

2—Malcolm Saunders (0/1)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (6/16 +21)

2—Ed Walker (0/4)

2—Ian Williams (1/6 +2)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

80 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Thirsk: £124.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Bangor: £71.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st August

WINDSOR - AUGUST 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £23.60 (6 favourites - 5 winners & 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 1 (Snazzy Jazzy) & 4 (Qianlong)

Leg 2 (5.50): 7 (Eskendash), 10 (Essenaitch) & 9 (Glorious Poet)

Leg 3 (6.20): 4 (UAE Queen), 5 (Medicean Ballet) & 7 (Snow Squaw)

Leg 4 (6.50): 6 (Ice Age), 1 (Stake Acclaim) & 4 (Spring Loaded)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Maazel), 10 (Liberatum) & 5 (Peace Dreamer)

Leg 6 (7.50): 3 (Ennjaaz) & 7 (Turnpike Trip)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Windsor - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.20: This is another of the ‘new’ races installed by the BHA because of its change of status (now a novice race instead of an ordinary maiden event.  Roger Varian has won with six of his last eleven runners and the ratio could improve today, albeit the popular trainer has six runners entered up, four of which run here at Windsor.  QIANLONG is the first representative on the card and there was plenty to like about his runner up effort at Nottingham on his first day at school.  That said, the ground was heavy at Colwick Park that day whereby he might need every one of the six pound concession from SNAZZY JAZZY who gained his debut victory under today’s projected (good) conditions at Goodwood.  There was rain on the radar at the time I checked Windsor this morning at 3.30 but that is (seemingly) due to clear for the rest of the day at first light.  Society Power demands a market check as the day progresses from your perspective, given that I have to play my cards much earlier this morning as far as this column is concerned.

Favourite factor: To be fair, I have clung on to the trends in these events because the change has been minimum (nothing at times). That said, this event had changed in grade whereby I am including the trend for the last time so this time next year, I will only be showing today’s result. The six favourites to date have secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety if you (conveniently) ignore the slight alteration.

 

5.50: Although ESKENDASH has only won once thus far, Pam Sly’s gelding has finished ‘in the two’ on six of his seven assignments whereby the trade press quote of 13/2 looks wide of the mark.  Yes, the success was gained away from turf whilst Adam Kirby’s mount comes to the gig as a beaten favourite.  That said, these rivals do not make a habit of winning either and with the selection being far less exposed than most, ESKENDASH would be classed as a ‘knocking’ each way bet if you could secure 5/1, though I doubt bookmakers will be that generous.  Punters do not always understand that when layers price up these events, bookmakers will do everything they can to protect their place liabilities when quoting the relevant odds.  I suspect you will be doing well to obtain 9/2 whereby you will suffer a slight loss should Pam’s raider finish in the frame without winning.  The race is (otherwise) full of imponderables, whereby speculative Placepot investors could include ESSENAITCH and GLORIOUS POET, hoping that hoses with far more Placepot units finish out with the washing.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Captain Peacock (good)

1/2—Michael’s Mount (good to soft)

1/3—Outback Blue (good)

1/8—Essenaitch (good to soft)

 

6.20: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight (and eight of the last ten) contests, with vintage representatives UAE QUEEN and MEDICEAN BALLET appearing to hold strong Placepot chances, the pair being listed in order of preference.  UAE QUEEN is the second of the Roger Varian runners on the card, whilst Henry Candy (Medicean Ballet) has saddled three horses to claim Placepot positions at the meeting during the last five years, albeit Henry’s runners have all been beaten from a win perspective.  There will be worse outsiders to consider on the card than SNOW SQUAW I’ll wager, with David Elsworth’s Excelebration filly vying for a place in my Placepot mix at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and two joint favourites have secured this prize during the last eleven years, whilst 11 of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (exact science).

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Record of the course winner in the third contest:

1/2—High On Love (good to firm)

1/5—Fastnet Spin (soft)

 

6.50: ICE AGE looks set to be sent off at a bigger price than when finishing third in this race last year when beaten four and a quarter lengths from stall 10.  Drawn slight wider (11) tonight, ICE AGE still represents the win and place call from my viewpoint, given that the relevant three pound claimer nearly negates what would have been an inferior differential compared to twelve months ago.  A winner here over course and distance last time to qualify for this finale of the series, ICE AGE carries a five pound penalty accordingly, though the four-year-old is still marginally preferred to STAKE ACCLAIM and SPRING LOADED at the prices on offer.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/1 favourite finished nearer last than first in a race in which the frame was filled by horses returned at 7/1, 16/1 & 9/1 (Ice Age).

Record of the course winners in the main event on the card. 

2/5—Stake Acclaim (good & soft)

1/5--Upstaging (good)

1/2—Spring Loaded (good)

1/3--Atletico (good to soft)

2/6—Ice Age (good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—Parnassian (good to firm)

1/3—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Goring (good)

1/4—Major Pusey (good to soft)

2/6—Englishman (good & soft)

 

7.20: Each way support had arrived overnight for Ruth Carr’s northern raider LIBERATUM and PEACE DREAMER by the time I came to look at this event and with nothing else to work with, this pair will be included in my Placepot equation alongside MAAZEL, who is the last of the sextet of Varian representatives today.  First time blinkers would only need to bring about a modicum of improvement in Roger’s Elzaam gelding to take him very close in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Windsor programme.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager: 

1/4—Sandfrankskipsgo (good to firm)

1/3—Awesome Allan (soft)

 

7.50:  Three-year-olds invariably get the better of their older rivals in these mixed vintage maiden events and the trend should be extended here with Saeed Bin Suroor’s newcomer ENNJAAZ having been declared alongside TURNPIKE TRIP and LEWINSKY.  Henry Candy appears to have found an easier opportunity for TURNPIKE TRIP, albeit Dane O’Neill’s mount enters my ‘last chance saloon’ this evening.  ENNJAAZ will be Saeed’s third winner in a row if he can land the spoils at the first time of asking, with Pat Cosgrave having waited since the opening race for only his second ride at the meeting.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 market leader duly obliged.  8/13 does not make a lot of sense to many people outside of the sport and even some inside the sport of kings.  If ever odds fail to make any sense, simply grab a calculator and in this case divide 8 by 13 to give you the sum of .615.  Simply add a point to that total and divide 100 by 1.615 to give you the correct percentage of 61.9%.  If you believe the horse, greyhound or football team has a 65% chance of winning any event you should play at odds of 8/13.  If (before you did the math) you only rated the relevant chance at 55%, keep your cash under lock and key.  There is nothing complicated about it all really.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Win & place format for relevant represented trainers (Five year study period relating to the corresponding meeting) at Windsor tonight:

Trainers with at least 1 winner and 2 placed horses

Gary Moore – 3 winners (5/1, 11/10* & 8/11*) & 2 placed – 1 runner tonight:

100/1 chance Sampaquita (7.50)

‘Team Hannon’ – 1 winner (5/2*) + 4 places – 4 runners tonight: Heidi (5.20), Boucie (5.50), Carducci (6.20) & Tomily (6.50)

 

Trainers who failed to saddle a winner but who have had at least three horses placed:

Henry Candy – 3 placed horses 7/1, 3/1 & 7/4) – 3 runners tonight: Medicean Bullet (6.20), Beck And Call (7.20) & Turnpike Trip (7.50)

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Lingfield: £6.60 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed

Thirsk: £8.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Hexham: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 15th August

FFOS LAS – APRIL 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Ffos Las: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Zambesi Queen), 8 (Topmeup) & 7 (Diminutive)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Indomeneo) & 3 (Isle Of Man)

Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Liva), 4 (Simply Breathless), 2 (Ventura Dragon) & 3 (Airshow)

Leg 4 (3.45): 10 (Ancient Longing) & 6 (Hawridge Flyer)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Katabatika) & 4 (Trauttman)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Catcher On The Go), 5 (Moabit) & 8 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: DIMINUTIVE is the only course winner in the field and the fact that the victory was gained under soft conditions suggests that the Fast Company representative might outrun her 25/1 price tag at the time of writing.  That said, more logical winners in the line up include ZAMBEZI QUEEN and TOPMEUP.  Paul Cole (ZAMBEZI QUEEN) has sent out two of his last three runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: There is no history attached to this meeting

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/8—Diminutive (soft)

 

2.45: Try as hard as I might, I cannot find a previous runner for Richard Fahey at this venue whereby the declaration of his INDOMENEO makes for interesting reading.  A winner of two of his last three assignments, Richard’s Piccolo colt has the benefit of a seven pound claimer to reduce the welter 9-13 burden.  Clive Cox appears to have found a decent opportunity for his Exceed And Excel newcomer ISLE OF MAN who is well related in terms of previous winners.  Clive’s late (April 29) foal is preferred to Livingstones Quest as the main danger to the tentative selection.

 

3.15: Given the way that Placepot dividends are greatly enhanced by ‘win only’ events (for obvious reasons), it would be churlish to try and pick over the form issues of the four runners in this contest.  The general advice is usually to include all four runners in your permutation before retiring to the bar, in the hope that the horse with the least units prevails, a scenario which is not as infrequent as you might imagine. This is (of course) an expensive way of being involved with your bet today but if we are playing up winnings (as is the case from Windsor last night), the speculative option is most certainly the way to proceed.

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Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Liva (good)

 

3.45: Following no less than 41 assignments under the other code of our favourite sport, STILL BELIEVING makes his flat debut this afternoon, though the distance slightly short of a mile and a half raises the odd eyebrow or two in this dwelling.  Support for the Evan Williams raider throughout the day would change my mind but given that I do not have that option via this service, I prefer to stick with ANCIENT LONGING and HAWRIDGE FLYER.  Either way, this pair should see us safely through to the next leg, whilst confirming that I would not get involved in this race other than the Placepot investment.

 

4.15: Hughie Morrison’s Inmates are running well enough from an each way perspective of late, though winners elude the team just now, whereby I would only accommodate KATABATIKA in Placepot terms, preferring to swerve the contest as far as selecting a winner is concerned.  TRAUTTMAN is presumably named after the famous Manchester City goalkeeper who would put today’s ‘starlets’ to shame in terms of feigning injury and all the other antics that ‘professional’ players get up to these days.  Bert played the last 17 minutes of the 1956 Cup Final (when men were men) with a broken neck to protect his team’s 3-1 lead and was eventually awarded the CBE for his services to football.  I digress, eventually wishing to include TRAUTTMAN in my Placepot permutation this afternoon.

 

4.45: An interesting sixth leg which suggests that the skinny 5/4 odds about VEILED SECRET might be worth passing up, a view which Bet365 obviously agree by going out on a limb at 6/4 at the time of writing.  In case the difference between the two prices don’t appear to be that different, it’s worth pointing out that the differential between the quote is similar to a horse being backed down from 9/1 to 6/1.  Paul Nicholls has won with six of his last 17 runners, with his representative MOABIT having won four of her eight races on the level thus far.  STERNRUBIN has split the layers in terms of the price of the projected second favourite (anything between 7/2 and 5/1), whilst the declarations of CATCHER ON THE GO and THISTIMENEXTYEAR add interest to proceedings.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Catcher On The Go (heavy)

1/2—Nabhan (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ffos Las card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—David Evans (1/13 – loss of 9 points)

3—Peter Bowen (1/1 – Profit of 3 points)

3—Hughie Morrison (0/2)

3—Evan Williams (2/13 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Clive Cox (0/3)

2—Nickki Evans (2/29 – loss of 9 points)

2—Richard Fahey (No previous runners)

2—Stuart Kittow (0/1)

2—Dan Kubler (0/1)

2—John McConnell (1/3 – slight loss)

2—Rod Millman (0/2)

2—Richard Price (0/2)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Nottingham: £120.60 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Thirsk: £31.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 5th August

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £93.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 8 (Rasheeq), 3 (The Wagon Wheel), 17 (Scorching Heat) & 13 (Pettochside)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Platitude), 4 (Mainstream) & 6 (Sir Chauvelin)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Mount Moriah) & 2 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Donhaun Triumphant), 7 (Projection), 10 (Raucous), 26 (Sir Dancealot) & 14 (Polybius)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Bathsheba Bay) & 10 (Rogue)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Taamol) & 2 (Medahim)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: A few things to muse over for starters today.  I believe it was a mistake to move the ‘Nassau Stakes’ to a midweek slot, with several leading trainers seemingly agreeing as they ‘boycott’ the meeting today.  Yes, the ground played its part in that, but John Gosden, Aiden O’Brien and many others are missing which takes the gloss of the final day of the fixture from my perspective.  I must also mention the name David Nicholls (sorely missed as a character), especially with Dandy having snared eight of the eighteen winners of this event down the years.  Upwards and onward by informing that nine of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5 and I offer a ‘short list’ of RASHEEQ, THE WAGON WHEEL, PETTOCHSIDE and SCORCHING HEAT accordingly.  The each way chance for Gin In The Inn is also there for all to see but sitting one pound above the ‘superior’ weight barrier and with Ryan Moore booked to ride, Richard Fahey’s will probably fail to represent value for money.

Favourite factor: Just three of the last fifteen favourites have finished in the frame (no winners) since four consecutive market leaders obliged between 2000 and 2003.

Record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/1—Son Of Africa (good to firm)

3/11—Pettochside (2 x soft & good to soft)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 6-5 via the last 13 renewals of this event, whilst horses carrying a minimum weight of 9-2 have held the call of late the call of late, with seven runners eliminated from the foot of the handicap this time around.  I offer a little note of caution regarding the weight trends on this occasion however because of the continued soft ground conditions. That said, I am a self-confessed ‘anorak’ down to my bones whereby I will adhere to my beliefs, offering up the likes of PLATUTUDE, MAINSTREAM and SIR CHAUVELIN to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager, if we successfully won through the first heat.

Favourite factor: 10 of the 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners) during the last 16 years.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/2—Soldier In Action (good)

1/2—Platitude (good to firm)

1/4—Arch Villain (good to soft)

1/1—Getback In Paris (good to soft)

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3.00: Sir Michael Stoute boasts nine victories down the years (Electric was his first winner back in 1982 with Greville Starkey in the plate) and many punters will latch onto the chance of CRYSTAL OCEAN who is closely matched with KHALIDI on recent Royal Ascot form.  There is no disputing the fact that this pair will go close, though value for money could lie with the Ralph Beckett’s raider MOUNT MORIA who comes to the gig on a four timer.  Yes, we are talking about recent handicap victories compared to this Group 3 event but the conditions will be a great leveller today and very much proven on the ground, 5/1 is an extremely reasonable price about the Mount Nelson gelding.

Favourite factor:  Market leaders of one description or another have won five of the last ten renewals of the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, whilst the last twelve gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 7/1.

Record of course winners in the Gordon Stakes:

2/2—Khalidi (2 x good)

 

3.35: 14 of the last 21 winners of the Stewards Cup have contested Royal Ascot’s Wokingham Stakes en route to lifting this prize, whist 15 gold medallists during the period hailed from the four and five-year-old ranks (four-year-olds have won six times during the last thirteen years).  Seven of the last twelve winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Taking all the stats and facts into account, my extended ‘short list’ consists of DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT, PROJECTION, RAUCOUS and POLYBIUS.  That said, I would not want to put you off the likes of BRIAN THE SNAIL and SIR DANCELOT who also assisted in the art of ‘head scratching’ during the early hours.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured toteplacepot positions which is a phenomenal record in such a competitive event.  Those stats include five successful favourites which equates to market leaders having produced a level stake profit of seventeen points during the last fourteen years.

Record of course winners in the Stewards’ Cup:

1/4—Duke Of Firenze (good)

2/4—Hoof It (2 x good to firm)

1/4—Go Far (good)

 

4.10: 'Team Hannon' has secured four of the last fourteen renewals, statistics which include three of the last ten contests. Richard saddles BATHSHEBA BAY and ROGUE this time around and from a Placepot perspective, I am happy to leave it to the stable companions to represent yours truly in the penultimate leg, given that I have used up plenty of options in earlier races.  That said, DEE EX BEE is the subject of good reports and if you have room in your permutation to add Mark’s late May foal, I would understand the manoeuvre.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions whilst four market leaders prevailed.

 

4.45: Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-9 which eliminates all but two of the runners and given that I have just two options for my permutation, TAAMOL and MEDAHIM are duly elected to use a political phrase.  The latter named raider represents Richard Hannon who has very selective in this runners here at Goodwood since the weather went ‘belly up’ earlier in the week.  The fact that he takes on the favourite TAAMOL suggests that Richard believes that the Kodiac colt can make a race of it at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite during the (19 year) study period, whilst 10 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions since I started researching the contest.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Aventinus (good)

1/1—Colonel Frank (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Represented winning trainers at Goodwood this week with their relevant number of runners on Saturday:

2 winners—Andrew Balding (20/1 & 7/4*) – 3 runners at Goodwood today

2 winners—Richard Hannon (7/1 & 10/3*) – 3 runners

2 winners—Charlie Hills (11/2 & 9/2) – 1 runner

2 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1 & 9/1) – 5 runners

2 winners—David Simcock (50/1 & 8/1) – 1 runner

2 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (7/4* twice) – 5 runners

1 winner—Karl Burke (7/2) – 1 runner

1 winner—David Elsworth (6/1) – 1 runner

1 winner—John Gosden (6/1) – 1 runner

1 winner—Gary Moore (100/1) – 2 runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £811.00 – 6 favourites- 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Hamilton: £78.90 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £35.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Newmarket: £521.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Thirsk: £19.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Friday 4th August

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £150.90 (7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Lord Yeats), 2 (Frontiersman) & 7 (Second Step)

Leg 2 (2.25): 11 (Zainholm), 2 (Beat The Bank) & 5 (Forest Ranger)

Leg 3 (3.00): 22 (Masham Star), 7 (Tony Curtis) & 21 (Sir Roderic)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Profitable) & 6 (Take Cover)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Gift In Time), 11 (Milton Road) & 3 (Carouse)

Leg 6 (4.40): 16 (Tomyris), 13 (Cristal Fizz) & 6 (Sainted)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals, whilst securing 14 of the last 28 available toteplacepot positions. Four-year-olds are around the 8/13 mark to extend their good run from a win perspective, via five representatives on this occasion.  LORD YEATS comes to the gig on a hat trick as a previous soft ground winner which suggests that P J McDonald’s should be the first name on the team sheet.  FRONTIERSMAN cannot be left out of the Placepot mix, whilst Roger Charlton’s first Goodwood runner of the week (SECOND STEP) will not mind the tacky conditions as much as some of the other declarations.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the opening event: 

1/1—Poet’s Word (good to firm)

1/2—Second Step (good to firm)

 

2.25: I was far from certain about the ground for Sir Michael Stoute’s runner in the opening event (Poet’s Word) but ZAINHOLM should get through the sticky stuff well enough in this grade/company to go close.  The 11/2 quotes by PP & ‘Vic’ make some appeal for sure, albeit this is a tough event to assess.  It would be as well for all concerned if the remaining eight runners stand their ground and if so, BEAT THE BANK and FOREST RANGER would complete my trio against the other five contenders.  This pair met up at Newmarket last time out when Andrew Balding progressives Paco Boy gelding (Beat The Bank) won with plenty to spare.  This ground might just bring the pair closer together this afternoon.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last five winners of the contest when represented and his three-year-old raider MASHAM STAR is his only runner on this occasion.  It’s worth noting that MASHAM STAR is the only vintage raider in the field, given that junior representatives have won four of the last nine renewals.  Mark’s Lawman colt is proven under conditions whereby his 22/1 quote with Ladbrokes and Coral makes plenty of each way appeal.  25/1 about the chance for Sir Roderic (2/3 on soft ground) is also something of an insult from my viewpoint, whilst it’s worth noting that on a day which ‘Team Hannon’ has dominated (eight winners during the last six years), TONY CURTIS is their only runner on the card. 2/2 track stats also catch the eye about 28/1 chance GOSSIPING, albeit Gary Moore’s representative has no form on under these type of conditions.  That said, Gary remains unbeaten here this week following his 100/1 winner on the opening day of the meeting!

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed in the last 20 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

2/2—Gossiping (good to firm & good)

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3.35: It is impossible to ignore the win and place claims of TAKE COVER, the ten-year-old having snared two gold medals and one of the silver variety (at 20/1) during the last three renewals!  David Griffiths deserves particular credit for keeping the old boy in fine form, as advertised perfectly when his Singspiel gelding won on the Knavesmire last time out.  Whether David Allen’s mount will be competitive in these conditions remains unknown, though we are aware that connections of PROFITABLE have no such worries.  There will be worse outsiders on the day than YALTA I’ll wager, especially as the 40/1 chance stands at 2/2 on the track thus far, albeit both victories were gained on good ground.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the fourth race: 

1/2—Kachy (good)

2/4—Take Ciover (2 x good to firm)

2/2—Yalta (2 x good)

 

4.10: The last 13 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, statistics which makes the task of Rufus King that much harder, given that Mark Johnston’ s raider is asked to give a minimum 18 pounds to his rivals.  The pick of the remaining ten contenders (at the time of writing) could prove to be GIFT IN TIME, CAROUSE and MILTON ROAD.  The latter named Mick Channon raider is on offer at 25/1 with Bet365 and ‘Vic’ this morning and being as short as 16/1 elsewhere. Those odds could (perhaps should) be accommodated to minimum stakes, especially with a 1/1 track record on good to soft ground under his belt.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have scored during the study period, whilst 12 of the last 20 jollies have reached the frame. That said, Seven of the last 17 winners of this nursery event have scored at 25/1--20/1--20/1--16/1--12/1--10/1--10/1.

Record of course winners in the fifth event: 

1/1—Milton Road (good to soft)

 

4.40: Three-year-olds have won 14 of the last 20 renewals and vintage representatives are around the 10/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, as long as further non-runners fail to rear their ugly heads before flag fall.  The pick of the relevant entries include TOMYRIS and CRISTAL FIZZ.  If the vintage trend is to be breached in the Placepot finale however, SAINTED is the likely spoiler from my viewpoint.  It’s interesting that William Haggas saddles the latter name pair offering a three and a four-year-old into the mix, given that four-year-olds have made something of a fightback having won four races during the last decade.  The reserve nomination is awarded to PERFECT ANGEL.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 20 market leaders throughout the study period claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale: 

1/1—Al Jazi (good to firm)

1/1—Perfect Angel (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Represented winning trainers at Goodwood this week with their relevant number of runners on Friday:

2 winners—Richard Hannon (7/1 & 10/3*) – 1 runner at Goodwood today

2 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1 & 9/1) – 7 runners

2 winners—David Simcock (50/1 & 8/1) – 3 runners

1 winner—Charlie Appleby (5/2*) – 5 runners

1 winner—Andrew Balding (20/1) – 4 runners

1 winner—John Gosden (6/1) – 4 runners

1 winner—Gary Moore (100/1) – 1 runner

1 winner—Aidan O’Brien (10/11*) – 2 runners

1 winner—Sir Michael Stoute (7/4*) – 4 runners

1 winner—Roger Varian (15/2) – 3 runners

1 winner—Ian Williams (25/1) – 1 runner

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £8.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Musselburgh: £57.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Newmarket: £31.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Thirsk: £59.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Bangor: £29.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 28th

ASCOT - JULY 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:

Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Expressly), 11 (Stream Song) & 4 (Indicia)

Leg 2 (2.10): 6 (Mythical Magic) & 8 (Strategist)

Leg 3 (2.45): 7 (Mister Manduro) & 8 (UAE King)

Leg 4 (3.20): 6 (Mittens), 3 (Nathra) & 7 (On Her Toes)

Leg 5 (3.55): 4 (Red Galileo), 6 (Tawddea) & 1 (Galapiat)

Leg 6 (4.25): 9 (Soie D’Leau), 3 (Yalta), 10 Shamshon) & 11 (Coofitch)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: INDICIA will be the first name on many lips this morning, though bookmakers have made wonderful profits down the years when punters plunge on juveniles who have finished second on their debuts, only to get turned over as favourites next time out.  With EXPRESSIY and (arguably) JOUSY having also been declared however, it is debatable if INDICIA will be returned as the market leader in a typically warm Ascot two-year-old contest.  STREAM SONG also catches the eye at an each way price at the foot of the list in the familiar George Strawbridge (white with a green hoop) colours.

Favourite factor: This is a new race ion the Ascot card via the ‘novice status’ of races brought in by the BHA around 18 months ago.

 

2.10: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick and given the amount of juveniles in his yard to choose from, we can suppose that MAGHWEER is among the top ranked two-year-old at base camp this season.  I’ve had to stop in my tracks as Richard’s raider has been scratched from the contest as I write.  No doubt Maghweer is one to keep an eye on.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that MYTHICAL MAGIC and STRATEGIST are now probably the safest options from a Placepot viewpoint given that we have a ‘short field’ to assess.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Last year’s wording before the 5/2 favourite obliged; Although winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence during the last 15 years, the relevant winners ranged in odds between 5/2 and 10/1.

 

2.45: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of this Class 2 (Brown Jack) handicap, yet no vintage representatives turned up for the gig last year!  Thankfully Roger Varian (UAE KING) and Mark Johnston (MISTER MANDURO) are wise to the stats this time around and this pair are expected to duel all the way to the line from my viewpoint.  Mark Johnston has saddled no less than ten winners at this two day fixture during the last five years whereby from a value for money perspective at least, I’m taking MISTER MANDURO to marginally win the day.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Brown Jack’ have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include seven successful favourites.

 

3.20: Three-year-olds have now secured 11 of the last 15 renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last six contests. Little wonder then that two of the three-year-olds have attract plenty of each way support overnight, namely the progressive pair MITTENS and ON HER TOES.  Both horses are guaranteed places in my Placepot mix, though the softened ground might have gone against Tisbutadream who would otherwise have been added into the mix.  John Gosden’s NATHRA is elevated into the equation accordingly.  A winner on soft and good to soft ground on both of her previous seasonal debut assignments, Frankie’s mount would take the beating if cherry ripe for the task in hand.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the last 15 years, whilst 12 of the 15 winners were sent off at 11/2 or less.

Course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Mittens (good)

1/2—Tisbutadream (good to firm)

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3.55: I can report overnight win and place money for RED GALILEO which does not come as a great surprise with the Saeed Bin Suroor stable having hit top form recently, with nine of their last 21 runners having been saddled to winning effect.  Others for the melting pot include GALAPIAT and TAWDEEA, given that any value in Appeared has long since disappeared, if you’ll pardon the play on words.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 market finished last of six runners (beaten 23 lengths), with favourite backers hoping for a distinctly better run for their money on this occasion.

Course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Appeared (good to firm)

1/3—King Bolete (goot to fim)

1/4—Sennockian Star (good)

 

4.25:  Five-year-olds secured the first five places in the 2012 contest before vintage representatives claimed a 1-2-4 three years ago at odds of 10/1-7/1**-12/1, five-year-olds having won four of the last six previous renewals before 2015 when the vintage was not represented.  Only two five-year-olds (33/1 & 25/1 chances) lined up on another occasion, before vintage representatives landed a 1-3-4 twelve months ago.  Unbelievably (I don’t believe it!) just one relevant horse has been declared this time around, with SOIE D’LEAU being the first name on the team sheet.  Ryan Moore boasts a 33% strike rate for Mark Johnston this season which can only aid and abet the cause of YALTA.  The recent Newmarket winner SHAMSHON finished fourth last year off a six pound higher mark, whilst COOLFITCH cannot be left out of the equations with conditions to suit.

Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten (winners at 66/1-50/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1-13/2) before a successful 4/1 market leader prevailed six years ago.  The race reverted to type in 2012 when a 14/1 chance led home horses sent off at 9/1 and 33/1, whilst the last four winners have scored at 14/1-10/1-8/1-5/1.  14 of the last 18 market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Shamson (soft)

1/13—Jack Dexter (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Mark Johnston (3/30 – loss of 8 points)

4—David Elsworth (1/8 – Profit of 4 points)

4—William Haggas (4/29 – loss of 12 points)

4—Roger Varian (2/26 – loss of 16 points)

3—John Gosden (2/38 – loss of 21 points)

3—Richard Hannon (4/40 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (2/17 – loss of 10 points)

2—Charlie Appleby (4/28 – Profit of 15 points)

2—Andrew Balding (0/13)

2—Robert Cowell (0/7)

2—Tim Easterby (1/2 – Profit of 24 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/5)

2—William Knight (No previous runners)

2—David O’Meara (1/19 – Profit of 7 points)

2—Hugo Palmer (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

2—Derek Shaw (No Previous runners)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £306.20 – 7 Favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Newmarket: £39.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Thirsk: £24.30 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

York: £65.60 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplced

Uttoxeter: £426.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced