Tag Archive for: Thirsk racecourse

Racing Insights, Friday 30/08/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just two qualifiers for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.15 Thirsk
  • 4.05 Down Royal
  • 4.15 Thirsk
  • 4.45 Southwell
  • 4.50 Thirsk
  • 7.25 Wexford

...and I think I'll look at the first of our list of free races, the 3.15 Thirsk, a 9-runner, Class 3 , 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

...where Makanah was the only one to win last time out, although top-weight Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby were all placed third and all nine runners have won at least one of their last six outings with Ventura Express and Miss Bodacious scoring twice.

Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2, but Rousing Encore, Miss Bodacious and Beattie Is Back are all up one class for a race that sees both Rousing Encore and Reveiller make debuts for their new handlers, whilst Miss Bodacious will wear a visor for the first time. She, along with Reveiller, will receive a useful 3lbs weight for age allowance here too.

Most of the field have raced at least once in the last five weeks and Reveiller latest run was eight weeks ago, but Beattie Is Back might well need the run, having been in the shed since mid-May 2023 and he's also one of just three runners here (Ventura Express and Reveiller) yet to win over today's trip. Of the six who have won over 6f previously, class-dropper Brazen Bolt and Tinto are course and distance winners, whilst Makanah has also won at this venue, albeit over 5f way back in mid-May 2019, which of course, won't show up on the two-year form record on Instant Expert, which suggests that Tinto might struggle at this level, having lost 12 of 14 starts at Class 3...

...whereas Makanah has won half of his four efforts. Tinto's record over this trip is even worse than his Class 3 numbers, whilst Rousing Encore makes no appeal at all. Perhaps they've been unlucky and have a string of placed finishes behind them? Let's check...

Unsurprisingly, that's not the case, but Brazen Bolt is now in my mind as a possible placer. In addition to those numbers above, he has been in the frame four times from five on good ground and he's only a pound higher than his last win and he's well drawn here in stall 4. You don't usually get much of a draw bias over a straight 6f on decent ground, but those drawn in the lowest six stalls do seem to have performed a little better than those in 7 or higher...

...but if that's a bit of a surprise, then the fact that front-runners fare best here won't be too much of a shock...

...giving us this pace/draw heat map...

...suggesting that the best positions would be a low-drawn leader or mid-drawn runners in prominent/mid-division places. And if we look at the field's most recent races...

...there's no real proven front runner, but Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by the pace/draw situation

Summary

Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby performed the best last time out. Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2 and Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Brazen Bolt were the picks from Instant Expert, whilst Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by pace/draw.

Of those mentioned above, I think I like Trilby best based on his third placed run in a higher grade from out of the handicap last time out and he'd be my pick ahead of Makanah. It's then easy to make a case for any of the other three, but I think I'd side with Brazen Bolt. he ticks more boxes for me and is likely to offer the best value, speaking of which : here's the market as of 3.50pm Thursday...

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 03/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...and 1 -year form...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Newmarket
  • 3.20 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 4.25 Newmarket
  • 5.00 Newmarket
  • 6.10 Hamilton

And I think we'll take a trip to the birthplace of James Herriot to see how James McHenry from the TJC report might get on in the 4.30 Thirsk, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good ground...

Bottom weight On The River won for the second time in six outings last time out and Thunder Run comes here on a hat-trick after two wins and a runner-up finish from his three career starts. He makes a handicap debut today and although rated joint third highest in the race by the assessor, he has the benefit of a 7lb weight allowance as the only 3 yr old in the field.

Of the ten who failed to win, last time out, only featured runner James McHenry made the frame, finishing as a runner-up at Hamilton, but he did win as recently as three starts ago. La Trinidad won his penultimate race, Mudamer won three races ago and Eldrickjones scored five races back, but Awaal, Padishakh, Empirestateofmind, Brunch, Austrian Theory and Cruyff Turn are on losing runs of 7, 8, 12, 16, 10 and 9 races respectively.

Padishakh runs in a handicap for just the second time today and will be tongue-tied for the first time, whilst Eldrick Jones, Mudamer and Cruyff Turn all step up a level from Class 3. Bottom weight and LTO winner On The River is up two classes, whilst the in-form handicap debutant Thunder Run steps right up from Class 5.

We shouldn't have any fitness issues today, as all twelve have had at least one outing in the last 45 days, but all have also had at least a fortnight's rest. All bar Austrian Theory have won over a similar trip to today's with Empirestateofmind, Thunder Run and On The River all having won over course and distance. In fact Empirestateofmind won this very race back in 2022, but he runs off a mark some 6lbs higher here.

The 2-year flat win records of this group are pretty bleak, according to Instant Expert...

...with only the inexperienced/unexposed Thunder Run catching the eye for the right reasons. James McHenry has done well over this trip and On the River has a decent return from his 16 attempts too, but doubts arise about pretty much the entire field at Class 2, whilst the records of La Trinidad, Empirestateofmind, Brunch, Austrian Theory and Cruyff Turn are poor over this trip. However, they do say you've got to be in  it to win it, which I read as you need to be in the frame if you're going to win and some of these do have reasonable place records from those losses above...

...with Awaal, Empirestateofmind, James McHenry, Thunder Run and On The River being the ones I'd be most interested in at this point. They're going to emerge from stalls 4, 8, 9, 11 & 12, so I'm rather hoping that if there's any draw bias here that it favours those drawn higher than halfway!

Fortunately, it does appear that although the bias isn't massive, those runners drawn in stalls 7 or higher do seem to have an advantage, which is good news for four of the five I highlighted from Instant Expert...

This, of course, brings us to race positioning/tactics aka pace and if we refer back to those sixty-odd races above, we find that they have been dominated by runner racing prominently or leading. Leaders have the best place record, but do appear to have been picked off late on by the prominent stalkers who have the better win record...

..so what I really want to see is some of my Instant Expert 'picks' in the top half of the average pace score chart and if we use  a score of 2.25 as our pace cut-off based on this field's last few runs...

... we find that four of the IE five are in that grouping.

Summary

Instant Expert suggested that Awaal, Empirestateofmind, James McHenry, Thunder Run and On The River might be the ones most likely to make the frame with only Thunder Run having a satisfactory win profile. Of these five, all bar James McHenry would appear to be in the 'right' half of the draw and the same four also look like being on the 'right' side of the pace divide, so I'm just going to choose from Awaal, Empirestateofmind, Thunder Run and On The River.

Thunder Run is in the best form and would therefore be of great appeal to those who just look at recent results, but whilst he does indeed have a great chance here, this represents a far stiffer task than he has faced before and he steps up three classes. He'll probably still win, but a Friday 5pm price of 7/4 doesn't excite me.

Awaal is a best-priced 7/2 second favourite with Bet365, but both On the River and Empirestateofmind are at E/W backable odds of 10/1 and 18/1 respectively and with bookies paying four places here, this pair appeal to me more than a 7/4 bet on the fav.

Have a great weekend!
Chris

Racing Insights, Friday 01/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.20 Thirsk
  • 4.08 Fontwell
  • 4.45 Ffos Las
  • 5.00 Down Royal
  • 6.43 Salisbury
  • 7.43 Salisbury

...and I think it makes sense to look at Ready Freddie Go from the H4C report, who runs in the first of our free races, the 3.20 Thirsk. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Tinto comes here off the back of a win, but Bay Breeze won his penultimate race, Fast And Loose was third LTO and Rock Opera's last three results read 122, but he is now returning from a 14-month break, so could very well need the run!

Brazen Bolt won six races ago and feature horse Ready Freddie Go has a win and a place from his last three, but seven of this field are without a win in their recent form lines.

I said Rock Opera might need a run on his second handicap outing after a 14-month absence and that might also apply to Ingra Tor and Pendleton after breaks of 144 and 349 days respectively, during which time the latter has moved yards and now makes a debut for Julie Camacho.

Only Ready Freddie Go, Tinto and Fast And Loose ran at Class 3 last time out, as the bottom three on the card (Rock Opera, Khabib & last year's winner of this race, Runninwild) all step up from Class 4 with the remaining six runners all dropping down from Class 2.

By winning this race last year, Runninwild is one of three (along with Tinto & Bay Breeze) former course and distance winners. As you'd expect from his place on the H4C report, Ready Freddie Go is a past Thirsk winner, having landed 4 of his 5 races over 5f, but he's one of just three (along with Rock Opera & Khabib) yet to win at 6f, as shown on Instant Expert...

And whilst the above doesn't necessarily guide me to a winner or even an E/W bet, it does mark the card for me regarding the likes of Pendleton (going/class/distance), Gulliver (going/class/distance), Fast And Loose (going/class/distance) and Khabib (going/course/distance) to the extent that I won't be backing any of them to buck the trend and win here and for simplicity's sake, I've removed them before looking at place stats...

...where aside from Ingra Tor's relatively poor record over 6f , there's little to cause me any discomfort. Interestingly, only last year's winner Runninwild runs off a mark lower than his last win, but that's probably because he's 0 from 6 since that win here a year ago. That said, his place data is very strong. He's drawn in stall 3 today and won from stall 4 last year, but our draw analyser suggests that those drawn highest have the best chances here...

...which allied to the PRB3 figures...

...might leave me with egg on my face if Gulliver and Fast And Loose go well from stalls 9 & 10! If we then consider how those races above were actually won, you'll probably not be too surprised to hear that leaders go well over a straight 6f on good ground, whilst hold-up horses have fared the worst as is generally the case in such contests...

...which sadly for me, again suggests that Fast And Loose possibly shouldn't have been discarded...

...whilst in draw order, we have...

...pointing to Fast And Loose being best placed on both draw and pace with feature horse Ready Freddie Go also looking useful.

Summary

The Pace/Draw data suggests that Fast And Loose is a major player, but he has only won once in fourteen attempts and represents poor value to me at 5/1. I've no doubt that he'll be in the mix with such a good pace/draw profile and the fact that he has made the frame in 9 of those 14 starts, but he'd be a placer again here for me and 5/1 is no E/W price for my liking.

He was beaten by Tinto last time out and despite being 4lbs worse off here, I think Tinto will beat him again and 9/2 is probably fair if unexciting. What I do like is the early 17/2 being offered about Brazen Bolt. He's better than recent results might suggest, he's down in class, had good place data on Instant Expert and his yard have a good record at this track. His trainer/jockey are in good collective form and have done well here at Thirsk together and 17/2 is a decent E/W price.

As for H4C report horse, Ready Freddie Go, I'm sure he'll give his best shot on his favoured track and could well get close to the frame at 9/1, but I'd much prefer him over 5f rather than today's trip.

Racing Insights, Saturday 05/08/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 5.55 Galway
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.45 Lingfield

Once again the Goodwood contest has far too many (28!) runners for my liking, so let's head to North Yorkshire for the 3.25 Thirsk, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on soft ground...

No LTO winners on show today and only top-weight Woven made the frame last time around. He did, however, win four starts ago and only The Turpinator, maywake and bottom weight Snash come here on a run of seven (or more!) consecutive defeats.

Snash is trained by Tim Easterby who has won this race for the last two years with last year's winner, Danzan also here to defend the crown under last year's winning jockey, which is interesting on Trainer/Jockey combo day!

Snash hasn't won for over a year now (9 races) and despite a 2 from 22 record on turf (yet 2/2 on AW), he's up in class here, whilst four of the top five in the weights (Heat of the Moment, Autumn Festival, Harswell Duke and The Turpinator) all drop down a grade.

Harswell Duke looks like he's making a debut for a new yard, but that's not the case, it's just a licence name modification from his last run 105 days ago, making him the one most likely to be a bit rusty. Heat of the Moment has been off for twelve weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to five weeks or so.

Broken Spear and Snash are both former Thirsk winners over 5f and 6f respectively, whilst Snash's stablemate Danzan is the only course and distance winner, having won this race last year and also just over six weeks ago. Elsewhere, all bar Heat of the Moment, Harswell Duke and Snash have managed at least one win at this trip.

Instant Expert says that all bar Snash have had a run on soft ground already and that five of them have won on soft, whilst there are five (not all the same runners) previous Class 3 Flat winners on show. A few clicks of the mouse will also reveal a pair of former Class 2 successes for Autumn Festival and Harswell Duke...

My immediate concerns would be about Woven (class/trip), Broken Spear (going/class/trip), last year's winner Danzan (going/class/trip), Maywake (trip) and Snash (trip).  Some of this datat is a little surprising to me, as I had it in my head that Woven and Maywake were better than the above graphic might suggest.

None of the field are any more than 5lbs higher than their last winning mark, but The Turpinator and Snash are 2lbs and 11lbs lower than their last flat win. Autumn Festival looks well set on both going and distance and we know Danzan's best efforts have been over course and distance, but before I rule any of these in or out, I want to check the place stats...

...which pretty much backs up my thoughts that Woven and Maywake weren't as bad as they first looked, but without any green at all on the pace stats, it's time for me to cut Heat of the Moment, Broken Spear and Snash from the reckoning, leaving me with seven to consider as I turn my attention to the draw on this left-handed, soft ground 7f. Our Draw Analyser says that at this trip and a mile, the higher drawn horses have fared best...

...especially those drawn is stalls 7 or higher...

...which could bode well for Danzan, Razeyna and Woven in 7, 8 & 9. Those races above have been won most often by horses setting the pace and the further back a horse has run, the lower the success rate, although only hold-up horses have struggled to make the frame...

This represents a complete turn about for the highly-drawn Razeyna and Woven, as they're not usually ones to force the pace of a race, based on recent evidence...

...but it's another tick for last year's winner Danzan, despite him still being rated some 7lbs higher than last year. I'm not sure what happened to Maywake on his last outing, as his usual average pace score is around the 3.50 mark and I think he'll want to be close to the front here.

Summary

I don't think Danzan is the horse he was last year, but the data above keeps pushing him my way. I think the likes of Maywake, Woven and Razeyna are better horses than Danzan and I'm sure that at least one will beat last year's winner, but at 16/1 (only Hills were open at 4.30pm) Danzan might not be the worst E/W bet I've placed this week! I know we're making a leap of faith, but horse, trainer and jockey all go well here, so who knows?

As for a winner, I do like Maywake, Woven and Razeyna, but I fear the latter pair are going to get undone by their hold-up approach, despite having great draws, so it's Maywake at 9/2 for me, whilst it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that Autumn Festival might try to win this from the front and if I can get 10's or better, that could also be an E/W option.