Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...
...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...
- 2.05 Newmarket
- 3.25 Thirsk
- 3.35 Goodwood
- 5.55 Galway
- 6.45 Lingfield
- 7.45 Lingfield
Once again the Goodwood contest has far too many (28!) runners for my liking, so let's head to North Yorkshire for the 3.25 Thirsk, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on soft ground...
No LTO winners on show today and only top-weight Woven made the frame last time around. He did, however, win four starts ago and only The Turpinator, maywake and bottom weight Snash come here on a run of seven (or more!) consecutive defeats.
Snash is trained by Tim Easterby who has won this race for the last two years with last year's winner, Danzan also here to defend the crown under last year's winning jockey, which is interesting on Trainer/Jockey combo day!
Snash hasn't won for over a year now (9 races) and despite a 2 from 22 record on turf (yet 2/2 on AW), he's up in class here, whilst four of the top five in the weights (Heat of the Moment, Autumn Festival, Harswell Duke and The Turpinator) all drop down a grade.
Harswell Duke looks like he's making a debut for a new yard, but that's not the case, it's just a licence name modification from his last run 105 days ago, making him the one most likely to be a bit rusty. Heat of the Moment has been off for twelve weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to five weeks or so.
Broken Spear and Snash are both former Thirsk winners over 5f and 6f respectively, whilst Snash's stablemate Danzan is the only course and distance winner, having won this race last year and also just over six weeks ago. Elsewhere, all bar Heat of the Moment, Harswell Duke and Snash have managed at least one win at this trip.
Instant Expert says that all bar Snash have had a run on soft ground already and that five of them have won on soft, whilst there are five (not all the same runners) previous Class 3 Flat winners on show. A few clicks of the mouse will also reveal a pair of former Class 2 successes for Autumn Festival and Harswell Duke...
My immediate concerns would be about Woven (class/trip), Broken Spear (going/class/trip), last year's winner Danzan (going/class/trip), Maywake (trip) and Snash (trip). Some of this datat is a little surprising to me, as I had it in my head that Woven and Maywake were better than the above graphic might suggest.
None of the field are any more than 5lbs higher than their last winning mark, but The Turpinator and Snash are 2lbs and 11lbs lower than their last flat win. Autumn Festival looks well set on both going and distance and we know Danzan's best efforts have been over course and distance, but before I rule any of these in or out, I want to check the place stats...
...which pretty much backs up my thoughts that Woven and Maywake weren't as bad as they first looked, but without any green at all on the pace stats, it's time for me to cut Heat of the Moment, Broken Spear and Snash from the reckoning, leaving me with seven to consider as I turn my attention to the draw on this left-handed, soft ground 7f. Our Draw Analyser says that at this trip and a mile, the higher drawn horses have fared best...
...especially those drawn is stalls 7 or higher...
...which could bode well for Danzan, Razeyna and Woven in 7, 8 & 9. Those races above have been won most often by horses setting the pace and the further back a horse has run, the lower the success rate, although only hold-up horses have struggled to make the frame...
This represents a complete turn about for the highly-drawn Razeyna and Woven, as they're not usually ones to force the pace of a race, based on recent evidence...
...but it's another tick for last year's winner Danzan, despite him still being rated some 7lbs higher than last year. I'm not sure what happened to Maywake on his last outing, as his usual average pace score is around the 3.50 mark and I think he'll want to be close to the front here.
Summary
I don't think Danzan is the horse he was last year, but the data above keeps pushing him my way. I think the likes of Maywake, Woven and Razeyna are better horses than Danzan and I'm sure that at least one will beat last year's winner, but at 16/1 (only Hills were open at 4.30pm) Danzan might not be the worst E/W bet I've placed this week! I know we're making a leap of faith, but horse, trainer and jockey all go well here, so who knows?
As for a winner, I do like Maywake, Woven and Razeyna, but I fear the latter pair are going to get undone by their hold-up approach, despite having great draws, so it's Maywake at 9/2 for me, whilst it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that Autumn Festival might try to win this from the front and if I can get 10's or better, that could also be an E/W option.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
Nice write up Chris. The two selections and one honourable mention would have made a lovely trifecta!
Cheers!
Would have been lovely, but I did back the first two and the forecast, so I can’t really complain.
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