Racing Insights, Friday 30/08/24

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just two qualifiers for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

• 3.15 Thirsk
• 4.05 Down Royal
• 4.15 Thirsk
• 4.45 Southwell
• 4.50 Thirsk
• 7.25 Wexford

...and I think I'll look at the first of our list of free races, the 3.15 Thirsk, a 9-runner, Class 3 , 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

...where Makanah was the only one to win last time out, although top-weight Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby were all placed third and all nine runners have won at least one of their last six outings with Ventura Express and Miss Bodacious scoring twice.

Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2, but Rousing Encore, Miss Bodacious and Beattie Is Back are all up one class for a race that sees both Rousing Encore and Reveiller make debuts for their new handlers, whilst Miss Bodacious will wear a visor for the first time. She, along with Reveiller, will receive a useful 3lbs weight for age allowance here too.

Most of the field have raced at least once in the last five weeks and Reveiller latest run was eight weeks ago, but Beattie Is Back might well need the run, having been in the shed since mid-May 2023 and he's also one of just three runners here (Ventura Express and Reveiller) yet to win over today's trip. Of the six who have won over 6f previously, class-dropper Brazen Bolt and Tinto are course and distance winners, whilst Makanah has also won at this venue, albeit over 5f way back in mid-May 2019, which of course, won't show up on the two-year form record on Instant Expert, which suggests that Tinto might struggle at this level, having lost 12 of 14 starts at Class 3...

...whereas Makanah has won half of his four efforts. Tinto's record over this trip is even worse than his Class 3 numbers, whilst Rousing Encore makes no appeal at all. Perhaps they've been unlucky and have a string of placed finishes behind them? Let's check...

Unsurprisingly, that's not the case, but Brazen Bolt is now in my mind as a possible placer. In addition to those numbers above, he has been in the frame four times from five on good ground and he's only a pound higher than his last win and he's well drawn here in stall 4. You don't usually get much of a draw bias over a straight 6f on decent ground, but those drawn in the lowest six stalls do seem to have performed a little better than those in 7 or higher...

...but if that's a bit of a surprise, then the fact that front-runners fare best here won't be too much of a shock...

...giving us this pace/draw heat map...

...suggesting that the best positions would be a low-drawn leader or mid-drawn runners in prominent/mid-division places. And if we look at the field's most recent races...

...there's no real proven front runner, but Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by the pace/draw situation

Summary

Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby performed the best last time out. Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2 and Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Brazen Bolt were the picks from Instant Expert, whilst Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by pace/draw.

Of those mentioned above, I think I like Trilby best based on his third placed run in a higher grade from out of the handicap last time out and he'd be my pick ahead of Makanah. It's then easy to make a case for any of the other three, but I think I'd side with Brazen Bolt. he ticks more boxes for me and is likely to offer the best value, speaking of which : here's the market as of 3.50pm Thursday...

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24