Racing Insights, Saturday 03/08/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...and 1 -year form...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

• 2.05 Newmarket
• 3.20 Thirsk
• 3.35 Goodwood
• 4.25 Newmarket
• 5.00 Newmarket
• 6.10 Hamilton

And I think we'll take a trip to the birthplace of James Herriot to see how James McHenry from the TJC report might get on in the 4.30 Thirsk, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good ground...

Bottom weight On The River won for the second time in six outings last time out and Thunder Run comes here on a hat-trick after two wins and a runner-up finish from his three career starts. He makes a handicap debut today and although rated joint third highest in the race by the assessor, he has the benefit of a 7lb weight allowance as the only 3 yr old in the field.

Of the ten who failed to win, last time out, only featured runner James McHenry made the frame, finishing as a runner-up at Hamilton, but he did win as recently as three starts ago. La Trinidad won his penultimate race, Mudamer won three races ago and Eldrickjones scored five races back, but Awaal, Padishakh, Empirestateofmind, Brunch, Austrian Theory and Cruyff Turn are on losing runs of 7, 8, 12, 16, 10 and 9 races respectively.

Padishakh runs in a handicap for just the second time today and will be tongue-tied for the first time, whilst Eldrick Jones, Mudamer and Cruyff Turn all step up a level from Class 3. Bottom weight and LTO winner On The River is up two classes, whilst the in-form handicap debutant Thunder Run steps right up from Class 5.

We shouldn't have any fitness issues today, as all twelve have had at least one outing in the last 45 days, but all have also had at least a fortnight's rest. All bar Austrian Theory have won over a similar trip to today's with Empirestateofmind, Thunder Run and On The River all having won over course and distance. In fact Empirestateofmind won this very race back in 2022, but he runs off a mark some 6lbs higher here.

The 2-year flat win records of this group are pretty bleak, according to Instant Expert...

...with only the inexperienced/unexposed Thunder Run catching the eye for the right reasons. James McHenry has done well over this trip and On the River has a decent return from his 16 attempts too, but doubts arise about pretty much the entire field at Class 2, whilst the records of La Trinidad, Empirestateofmind, Brunch, Austrian Theory and Cruyff Turn are poor over this trip. However, they do say you've got to be in  it to win it, which I read as you need to be in the frame if you're going to win and some of these do have reasonable place records from those losses above...

...with Awaal, Empirestateofmind, James McHenry, Thunder Run and On The River being the ones I'd be most interested in at this point. They're going to emerge from stalls 4, 8, 9, 11 & 12, so I'm rather hoping that if there's any draw bias here that it favours those drawn higher than halfway!

Fortunately, it does appear that although the bias isn't massive, those runners drawn in stalls 7 or higher do seem to have an advantage, which is good news for four of the five I highlighted from Instant Expert...

This, of course, brings us to race positioning/tactics aka pace and if we refer back to those sixty-odd races above, we find that they have been dominated by runner racing prominently or leading. Leaders have the best place record, but do appear to have been picked off late on by the prominent stalkers who have the better win record...

..so what I really want to see is some of my Instant Expert 'picks' in the top half of the average pace score chart and if we use  a score of 2.25 as our pace cut-off based on this field's last few runs...

... we find that four of the IE five are in that grouping.

Summary

Instant Expert suggested that Awaal, Empirestateofmind, James McHenry, Thunder Run and On The River might be the ones most likely to make the frame with only Thunder Run having a satisfactory win profile. Of these five, all bar James McHenry would appear to be in the 'right' half of the draw and the same four also look like being on the 'right' side of the pace divide, so I'm just going to choose from Awaal, Empirestateofmind, Thunder Run and On The River.

Thunder Run is in the best form and would therefore be of great appeal to those who just look at recent results, but whilst he does indeed have a great chance here, this represents a far stiffer task than he has faced before and he steps up three classes. He'll probably still win, but a Friday 5pm price of 7/4 doesn't excite me.

Awaal is a best-priced 7/2 second favourite with Bet365, but both On the River and Empirestateofmind are at E/W backable odds of 10/1 and 18/1 respectively and with bookies paying four places here, this pair appeal to me more than a 7/4 bet on the fav.

Have a great weekend!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24