Tag Archive for: Tix

Tix Picks, 7th September 2024

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A losing day on Friday, stakes of £18 returning only £4.33 after a leg 2 bomb out left just one 'C' ticket (below) remaining. That's often the case, of course, and on we go.

 

Recap: What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here. You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a fat Scoop 6 pool for the ultra-brave and deep-pocketed, plus a £100,000 guaranteed placepot at Haydock.

 

 

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Kempton, placepot

Really, really competitive fare today and no obvious banker safe havens at the three big meetings. There's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Kempton as well as the £100k guarantee at Haydock and I'll roll the dice on the Sunbury beaches.

Leg 1: A 2yo Group 3 to kick off, 6f and ten runners. Draw and pace can be big factors at Kempton, as this heat map implies. It could be tricky for Jouncy to get any sort of run from the outside box and I'm against him, though his form is solid if he does find a passage. More obvious is Adrian Keatley's Symbol Of Strength, 12lb clear on official ratings and surely odds on - rather than 7/4 - if trained by a more fashionable handler. That said, he's yet to run off turf but was an excellent length third in the G2 Gimcrack last time. He has a good draw and run style for this course and is a sole 'A'.

 

Leg 2: Seven runners - ugh - for this 1m4f Group 3 and Hamish, winner of the race in 2021, is another that is well clear on official ratings. He was second in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Ascot two back but then flopped a bit in a G2 at Newmarket last time. If he comes back close to his best - at age eight, that's not a given - he'll win here. A.

Kalpana is an improving three-year-old filly and a daughter of a very interesting sire in Study Of Man. She's been second and first in Listed contests, sandwiching a bronze medal in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, and she gets a stone in age and sex allowances from the old boy Hamish. Her outside draw isn't ideal, even in a longer race and shorter field, but is mitigated by her tending to race handily in a field where not many do that (Cemhaan the only obvious other): she's on A as well in what is unimaginative play on my part.

Leg 3: The London Mile final, a 14-runner handicap at the - you guessed it - mile range. Very competitive field and again wide draws will have their work cut out as this image demonstrates:

 

The takeaway here is that if you have a double digit draw, it will be tough to get involved.

Kilt is favourite on his second handicap start and has no chinks in his armour bar experience. He is tractable in terms of run style, is drawn in stall 2, comes from the Haggas barn and the form of his two novice runs is working our brilliantly. Not so much the form of his handicap debut but we've since yet to see the only horse to finish ahead of him there and it was nearly three lengths-plus back to the rest. The first three favourites on this card could easily win.

But I want some B backup here. Valkyrian is a four-year-old that has already run 27 times - she's tough! Her last four AW spins have been 2122 and she keeps going up the handicap. It's only three days since her last run and, though I respect connections and she has a good draw/progressive profile, I'm a little wary off a very busy campaign and that recent run. She might defy both and she's reluctantly going on B, simply because four fancied runners are drawn 10, 11, 13 and 14. Vultar also goes on B, Clive Cox's runner having been 112 in three track spins and exiting trap six.

Whitcombe Rockstar is a third B despite a draw in 14. He's won over course and distance from stall 10 of 13 and stall 11 of 12, meaning he must have a turbo kick at the end of his races.

On C, I'll take those other wide lads, Talis Evolvere and Longlai as well as unnamed favourite.

Leg 4: Six go to post in a nursery handicap and coincidence players, perhaps especially Scottish ones, might enjoy the Kilt/Tilted Kilt double in consecutive races. William Knight's handicap debutant has a lot in his corner, including the masterful Neil Callan on top.

I'm not mad about Fearless Freddy's form - I might be wrong - and am swerving him; instead, I like the progressive Chesneys Charm: he needed every yard of the seven furlongs to get up on the line at Wolves last time and this extra eighth should be ideal. I also respect George Scott's handicap debut record and so Toy Soldier is on B tickets. I'll timidly lob the other trio on C.

Leg 5: A dozen runners for the London Sprint Series Final over 6f. Draw and run style are again huge considerations as you can see below:

An inside berth and/or a front-running style are important. Wide and waited with is tough, really tough. The pace horses Habooba and Radio Goo Goo both get automatic C slots at least, and I'm upgrading Habooba to B courtesy of his 9 from 10 place record in 6f all-weather races.

Favourite Heathcliff is more of a 7f horse (his distance win last time was on the more searching straight six at Newcastle) and could be done for speed in this contest; I prefer the chances of top weight Ferrous whose sand level is better than his grass one. If he can get a nice position from his inside stall he's a runner. A. Intervention was a close up sixth in this race last year having been messed about with at the start, and that's an effort that can be upgraded a touch. He's very consistent in AW sprints and has a good draw for an in-form team. B. Al Barez is another well drawn horse but he'll need the splits given his hold up style; in any case, he has a great gear change and completes the B group.

Leg 6: A trappy sextet closes with a 1m4f older horse handicap in which Enrico Caruso looks a worthy jolly for the Gosdens. The form of his handicap debut win last time has worked out well, with the second winning both times since. It was more than six further lengths back to the third, and the fouth has won a Newmarket handicap since. This longer trip should be fine, though Shoemark doesn't want to leave Enrico with too much ground to make up.

Assail was given that mission impossible closing assignment here two back, just missing the frame, and then got it done at Ascot last time over this trip. He is likely to be on the premises and is a second A play.

Wonder Legend is hard to quantify and, on balance, I'll sidestep him with two solid A's already. Harder to ignore is Night Breeze, a big improver this season and one that has been getting plenty of the Racing League prize money. He's been busy but may not be finished yet. B. Haku has some good runs at the track, usually just outside the places and that makes him a C play only along with unnamed favourite. I'll throw the filly Juana Ines on C, too: her trainer does very well on HC2 and she ran a cracker in an Ascot novice last backend and gets the tongue tie as well as the hood for the first time. Interesting.

 

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A few chances taken, especially the banker jolly in the first. You could place lay it to insure your position if that's your thing.

 

 

 

5p units makes for a £17.60 spread this afternoon. Obviously, lots of risk, especially early, but that's the nature of the game. Good luck!

Matt

p.s. Sundays are a great day for placepots - and often for jackpots too - but it's a day off for Tix Picks. Back on Monday...

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 

Tix Picks, 6th September 2024

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I was right to forecast soft ground for Salisbury yesterday. In fact, not quite right enough, because the fixture was abandoned an hour and a half before racing was scheduled to go ahead. What a shame for their big day of the year. To Friday, but first...

 

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here. You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows*

 

*Did you know we had a dark mode? It's the button top right that looks like a sun. And the 'eye' icon next to it reveals or hides your account balance when logged in.

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Ascot, placepot

It's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Ascot today and the going is currently soft. Ascot has a great page to check going here. There is the promise of more rain on its way so I'm working on the basis of heavy which, like yesterday, could be flawed logic but offers a potential edge. Let's hope, unlike yesterday, the meeting actually goes ahead.

Leg 1: A mile on the straight track for female amateurs is a test of judgement at the best of times. On rain softened ground there could be a furlong between first and last. Experienced rider and a hold up ride on a horse handling the conditions is optimal, and that means Shaladar. His form on soft in mile handicaps is 22722, he's a hold up type and Becky Smith, one of the most competent and experienced jockeys in the race, steers. The other of interest is last year's late, late show winner, Crystal Casque, who is five pounds lower this time around and acts well on soft. Two A's and we'll hope to survive the opener. I've backed Shaladar which is another impost that one will have to overcome!

Law Supreme will go on B.

Leg 2: Godolphin has won this decent maiden with the favourite in three of the last four years, and Fifth Column - trained by the Gosdens for Team Blue - is vying for market leadership. But current jolly and the one to be with, I think, is Isambard Brunel, representing Ballydoyle and the lads. The Aidan and Ryan TJ combo is 7/12 in the past fortnight and, though the going is a niggle for a son of Justify, he's my A single. I'll add a B in the form of Fifth Column, and a couple of C's - Seaplane and Calla Lagoon.

Leg 3: Non-runners have already reduced this race to a field of seven, rarely the friend of placepotters, and I'm banking on the odds-on jolly Ballet Slippers to go one better than last time. Dubawi offspring have a very good record on soft and I hope that's not the kiss of death here. She's the first foal out of the brilliant seven-time Group 1-winning mare Magical, and is a super-interesting cross with a Darley stallion for the Coolmore squad. They need her to get the win. I will take her as my sole pick in the race and lay her cheaply for a place to insure half of my placepot stake.

Leg 4: Hamad al Jehani has made a cracking start to his career in UK, hitting the frame at 38% and winning at 17%. He saddles favourite Diego Ventura, a winner on debut last time before switching to owners Wathnan Racing. Diego was trained by Gavin Cromwell and sent off 33/1 that day, dead heating with subsequent follow up winner and Listed second Magnum Force. That form has plenty of substance and, despite the six pound penalty, he ought to nearly win again, the turf having been yielding that first day.

Fort Augustus had a very troubled start on his debut at Newmarket last time behind another Wathnan runner, Defence Minister. That one scored again yesterday and this fellow looks the main danger (of those with form). He's a B pick, and I'm shoving three on C, all of them mildly interesting today and more than that for the future: Kosometsuke, Newlyn School and Gesundheit (bless you!).

Leg 5: Three absentees here have the field down to seven again, and I'm spreading out a bit further this time in a 0-90 classified stakes. Waleefy has been in great form on much faster ground but has never encountered anything with the word soft or heavy in it. Still, as a son of Night Of Thunder, whose progeny tend to handle deeper ground, he might be fine. His form gets him the A gig, but definitely not a solo spot.

Contrast that with James Tate's runner, United Approach, whose only two wins have been on soft and good to soft turf. He's got a bit to find on bare form but is expected to handle conditions better than some. And I'm adding a third string to my A bow with Look Back Smiling. This is a race where I feel there's a chance of getting a result, and Gemma Tutty's lad is a mudlark with strong handicap form.

I'm against Thunder Blue, who may struggle on the ground, and prefer Dark Thirty to bounce back somewhat. Lord Bertie won a soft ground novice by TWELVE lengths last season; a stable switch has seen three lacklustre spins on the all-weather so far but he, too, could bounce back on the sodden surface. Both on C, along with unnamed favourite.

Leg 6: Theoryofeverything is the place to start in this final leg, a mile handicap. David O'Meara trains and this one has loads of decent soft ground form. Favourite Awaal was second in the Lincoln on heavy last year but has run only once this season, 55 days ago; he looks one to be cautious with just now, though it won't surprise if he comes right back - I'll lob him on B. O'Meara also saddles Bennetot, and Oisin rides, so he'll be popular; but he's 0-from-3 on deep ground, thumped each time.

When I'm discounting most of the horses at the top of the market I get a bit nervous, and that appears to be what's happening here. I could make a small case for Classic, and slightly more of one for standing dish Tempus; but the one I quite like is Hafeet Alain. He's a mudlark and a four-time handicap winner at a mile including twice in this grade. The one niggle is his run style: forward goers don't normally prosper on this piste. He's going on B all the same. So, too, is Navagio, another with plenty of soggy sod form and he's five pounds lower than when third in this year's Lincoln (on soft).

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For 4p stakes, then, and using the multipliers shown below, that's an £18 play across 14 tickets. You could make the same bet to pennies for £4.50, though I always recommend changing at least a few things up.

 

 

 

It could be an early bath in either of leg 1 or 3 today - or indeed leg 2, and a slightly later dip in the tub via legs 4, 5 or 6! - but risk is the friend of placepot players. If we get it wrong today, we can go again tomorrow. What we cannot do is bankroll self-harm by putting five picks in every leg.

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 

Matt

Tix Picks, 5th September 2024

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We're spending this week trying to formulate the optimal way to present Tix Picks, and what has immediately become apparent is the misleading nature of the early overnight markets. The upshot of that may be that we need to either publish much later the evening before or, better from an accuracy perspective/worse from an accessibility perspective, in the morning on day of race.

While no decision on that has yet been made, I'm leaning towards morning simply because the market signals are a key component in multi-race betting.

In spite of the market cluelessness, an £18.10 stake in our first attempt returned £121.38 from the two winning tickets below, which is a pretty good start...

 

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows:

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Salisbury, placepot

It looks trickier to me than the markets imply at Salisbury where they host their big meeting of the season, featuring the Dick Poole (Group 3) and some high class-looking fillies races elsewhere on the card. And there's a significant amount of uncertainty about the going, which could lead to both non-runners and different horses being favoured. Exactly what I love to swing at on the placepot!

Currently, the going is reported as good to firm, good in places; but it's raining and there's a lot of rain expected later this morning. As a consequence, I'm going to play the bet based on good to soft/soft (they watered the track earlier in the week) and with field size changes (and therefore fewer placepot places) a potential further imbuggerance. Of course, if I'm wrong, it could be a very early bath. And of course of course, you're better off judging the ground/field sizes/weather closer to the first race off time if you can.

OK, long intro in place, let's get to it.

Leg 1: Beau Jardine is the proven soft ground horse and he's getting backed. Most of his best form is at shorter, however, which is a niggle. Edvard Grieg shaped as though a testing mile was ideal last time but he has only satisfactory form on deeper turf from Ireland; still, he also goes on A. Darysina Gold is consistent and the sort of horse I hate to see in the frame, but completes a triple A assault in the opener. I'm going to throw Finn Russell, Gavi Di Gavi and Outrace on a C ticket, too.

Leg 2: This mile novice for juveniles could take some getting, especially as plenty have never run before. Dissident is a gorgeously-bred half to G1 filly Bluestocking and clear favourite. Enrolled must improve on a last of four on debut; Fanshawe runners have a 60% PRB on second start and the yard could hardly be in better form. I'm not sure about the ground for a son of American Pharoah, however, and the fact he's already been gelded having cost 270,000 guineas is not a positive.

Taking an unraced horse in a contest like this on ground like this is a risk; but I'm banking on him on A. I'll throw a few massive odds C guesses in case, siding with 3, 7, 8, 9, 10. Very much more in hope than expectation.

Leg 3: Nine runners currently in this one, so a couple of withdrawals would take us to only two places. Speculative, I know, but that is very much the shape of today's play. It wouldn't be a surprise if Kingsclere proves the best of these in time: she's a full sister to 2000 Guineas winner Kameko and has been named after Andrew Balding's yard, the sort of thing usually reserved for good'uns. But Kitten's Joy progeny are not tyically great on soft and Balding's first time out record (30%) is a lot lower than his second and third time out record.

I'm swerving her, then, though she's sure to be one to follow; in her place I'll side with Gulya and Silver Ghost. The former is a debutante for Roger Varian (46% placed first time out) by a stallion whose offspring tend to cope with mud; the latter is the most experienced in the field, has been second the last twice and is bred to handle softer.

Leg 4: One NR in the Dick Poole, a 6f fillies' G3, already; and potential for more to follow. Two more out would take us to seven runners. Kingman filly, Tabiti, was ultra-impressive on her debut when making all at Newmarket. But that was good to firm and I'm playing that this will be a lot wetter. Still, Kingman's do fine in the rain so she's not a chuck out; she's just not a banker, either.

I'll add a second A string to my bow in the shape of the obvious one, Jewelry. Unbeaten in one, she danced clear of a biggish field at Newbury (good) last time and, a daughter of Wootton Bassett, ought not to mind the ground.

I'm taking B's here, too, with the experienced and progressive Magic Mild and the unexposed, potentially over-priced Troia. I'm lobbing 1, 3, 4, fav on C as well!

Leg 5: A cracking 6f fillies' handicap and top weight Pinafore can bounce back. She ran better than her finishing position at York last time, weakening in the final furlong of seven there; the step back in trip on ground she is expected to handle looks right. Under The Twilight is three from three at Salisbury, including on soft turf twice. She's back to her last winning mark and is another to have performed better than her finishing position the last twice. Dance And Romance looks the right favourite: she's unexposed and has won on good to soft. She has to be in calculations. Three A's.

Leg 6: The last leg is a really trappy mile handicap for three-year-olds and up. Although he's rising up the weights, Phoenix Passion has five wins from seven mile handicap starts, and is four from four in mile turf handicaps. He's won on good to soft and heavy (and good and good to firm!) and he usually goes forward. Saffie Osborne is riding as well as just about anyone this season so no frets there. This is a step up in class, however.

Faro Di Notte is another with form on softer and is unexposed, this being only his second handicap spin: he was second on 'cap bow last time over a mile at Goodwood. He's on A as well.

Two B's - Monkey Island and Berkshire Nugget; and C's in the shape of Gloucestershire, Aafoor and Beylerbeyi because this race is tough!

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For minimum penny stakes, then, that's a £15.48 play across eight tickets.

 

 

There's a very good chance that this octet either fails to collect or returns less than was invested; but I am looking for some carnage and hoping to nick a sliver of it!

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

Matt

What is Tix?

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Tix is software designed to help you make better multi-race (placepot, jackpot, etc) tote bets. A sister product to geegeez.co.uk, conceived and built by the same brains behind this website and its racing software, Tix is essentially a staking and placement tool. It optimizes your stakes and automatically places bets on your say so.

Get your account set up

In order to use Tix, you'll need a tote account. If you don't already have one, you can register here (and receive some bonuses when you make your first plays).

How Tix Works

The video below shows you how Tix works, and here's a list of contents in case you're after a specific thing:

00:00 Intro / get a tote account
00:56 The Tix App / logging in
02:15 Making selections in Tix
04:20 Refining your tickets in Tix
09:40 Placing your bets in Tix
10:52 Reviewing your bet history in Tix and via spreadsheet
13:10 ***Get a 5% BONUS on all winning tickets through TIX***
13:45 Do this if it all sounds a bit complicated!

 

 

 

Tracking your bets from Tix

Tracking bets across multiple tickets can be a bit of a faff. I use a 'macro' in Excel which, once set up, merely requires me to use a keyboard shortcut to execute it.

Here's what I mean:

 

Download the macro

You can download the macro I created and used in the video above here.

NOTE: Some browsers/operating systems/anti-virus software don't like macros, because they are used by unscrupulous souls to transport malicious code and the like.

To install in Excel, go to File > Options > Add-ins > Excel Add-ins > Browse and select the tix.xlam file. It will be called Tix and it may initially be in the 'Inactive' list.

 

Deploying the macro

To use the macro, download a csv file from your Tix BETS tab and then simply click 'ctrl' and 'T' at the same time while in Excel. That will convert the raw format to the 'pretty' and trackable version:

You may then overwrite the 'Leg 1' to 'Leg 6' data with the number placed/winning selections on each ticket and, once completed for all legs, the total winning value of each ticket will be displayed in 'Leg 7'.

Any questions, leave a comment and I'll update the post with the answer!

Matt

Tix Picks: Prototype

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Tomorrow's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows:

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Bath, placepot

With short fields everywhere except Kilbeggan, today I'm going to have a look at the Bath placepot. It's not a perfect shape, with a four-runner opener (win only) and two eight-runner fields to close the sequence, we have just one place to get through leg 1 and non-runners could affect the number of places available in legs 5 and 6. Ideally you'll place your bets late to account for this, but in any case it's something to be aware of.

The going is good to soft currently, with the chance of a light shower. There is no watering at Bath so it should ride genuinely as per the going description.

I'll be taking a banker in leg 3 and will build around that.

Leg 1: Four runners, three-year-olds only handicap over the minimum. Win only. The current betting has Smooth Silesie and Wrestling Revenue as vying for favouritism, but there are grounds for believing that both the exposed Soldiers Design and the unexposed Port Hedland can get competitive. I'm minded to go four deep on A and hope for one of the outsiders, but I'm going to reluctantly put Port Hedland on C, along with unnamed favourite.

Leg 2: Miss Gitana was out of the placepot places for the first time in six races last time, and even then only just. Prior to that she was a course, distance and going winner in slightly lower grade and is the most likely leader in the field for all that there are other possible forward goers. She's 422113 since taking on handicaps, a typical Sir Mark Prescott project, and is an obvious A player.

Percy Jones was a winner two back on the all-weather and he did too much early in a better race over shorter last time. That's a chuck out and, now returned to optimal distance and five pounds below his last winning mark he could go well. B. I'm not sold on A Gift Of Love for all that the longer trip could see her go close, or Maritime Lady who may be compromised if she tries to lock handbags with Miss Gitana early; but I do want another option on B. So I'll take For Pleasure, who is on a very feasible weight and has won three of his last six across all codes.

Leg 3: A banker as mentioned - you've got to take chances somewhere - and I'm taking a risk with Distant Rumble. He's drawn wide but that's not necessarily a problem over the 5 1/2f trip at Bath. This looks a pretty weak contest so fingers crossed he can at least hit the board.

Leg 4: The extended five furlongs again, this time in a 10-runner handicap. There's a little bit of speed on paper - via Fishermans Cottage and Johnny Johnson - and I want finishers to chase them down. Apache Star loves it here, especially when there's some give in the turf, and he's weighted to go close at a decent price. But Mick Appleby's Snow Berry was doing all his good work late on over five last time and the longer trip looks spot on. He's A material, as is Media Guest whose track record is very solid.

Vaunted rattled home over course and distance three back but she's very tricky at the start, as evidenced by an unseated rider from the stalls last time.

Leg 5: The Mick Appleby trainer change angle has been one of the most bankable in racing over the years, and he bids to work his magic with Honour Your Dreams here. Only 2 from 35 for Adrian Keatley, he did make the frame 11 times. Both wins were on turf and his mark has dropped to an attractive level if Mick can eke out some of the old animal here. He'll likely be chasing So Smart early - I'm betting they all will - and Grace Harris's speedster has generally been on the premises; but he's a weak finisher and might again get passed late on.

Glamorous Express is one of those closers but might just need more speed to aim at. He looks short enough in the betting and I'm taking him on. Obviously, he'll win now! Symbol Of Hope is a seven-time winner at Bath, his form in the last years here reading 1133229657041641. He's on B. So, too, is Sovereign Slipper, four from 17 lifetime and whose sole turf win came over five furlongs on similar ground at Chepstow the time before last.

Delagate This Lord is ten years old now and probably won't win, but he's an eight-time Bath scorer so hats off for that.

Leg 6: A 1m4f handicap to close out the placepot and the 'dead eight' again, meaning a non-runner will reduce us to only two places... Divine Presence represent Team Gosden, and they're two winners and two further places from five Bath starters in the past year. She's straight on A. So, too, is Ciara Pearl, the Kublers' filly a consistent sort that handles any ground.

The Alan King handicap debutant One Glance has managed to hit the frame the last twice in spite of being sent off at 40/1 and 100/1! King's record with HC1 is not great, however, and she's passed over tentatively. Bas Bleu has had plenty of goes compared with some of these and has nearly won on four of her eight attempts. But you can't put them all in, so I'll have to hope she again fails to pass the lollipop in front.

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That makes the Tix picks look thus. A quick explainer seeing as you may be new to all this. The first column, green, are my 'A' picks. I must have at least one 'A' in each race and these are my strongest fancies in each race. The yellow column in the middle is for 'B' picks, my warmish / value alternatives. And the tan right hand column is for 'C' picks - horses I can't let beat me but that I don't especially fancy; or huge prices that I secretly admire.

 

Once I've added my picks on the RACES tab (that's where the image above comes from), I move on to the TICKETS tab to enter my stake and choose my multipliers. I tend to set things up as per the image below, and I'll explain why underneath that snapshot:

 

 

Ticket 1 consists solely of my 'A' picks - my main fancies - and, as such, I've given it a 4x multiplier. That means the individual stake (£0.05, see the box underneath 'place ticket' in the ticket 1 area top left) is times'd by four, i.e. 20p units. The selections are therefore AAAAAA

Tickets 2 to 4 consist of five of my 'A' race picks and the 'B' picks in one each of the three races in which I've selected horses on 'B' (legs 2, 4, and 5 - see first image). The selections here are ABAAAA (B on leg 2), AAABAA (B on leg 4), and AAAABA (B on leg 5). These have a 3x multiplier today (3 x 5p = 15p lines), though sometimes I only make a 2x multiplier for these.

Tickets 5 to 7 consist of four of my 'A' race picks and 'B' picks two of the three races in which I've selected horses on 'B'. So ABABAA, ABAABA, and AAABBA. These have a 2x multiplier today (2 x 5p = 10p lines), though sometimes I only make a 1x multiplier for these.

Finally, ticket 8 has five 'A' race picks a 'C' race pick. This is CAAAAA (my only 'C' picks being in leg 1). These always have a 1x multiplier for me, so 5p lines.

IMPORTANT POINT

It is important to note that not all combinations are covered. We get a lot of coverage across the chosen horses for a much reduced stake compared to putting all the picks in a 'caveman' perm (e.g. in this example, we'd have 5 picks in leg 1, 3 in leg 2, 1 in leg 3, 3 in leg 4, 3 in leg 5 and 2 in leg 6 - so 5*3*1*3*3*2 = 270 bets).

In order to win on ABCX we need to get either at least one correct from all six 'A' race picks; or at least one correct on five 'A' race picks plus one 'B' and/or 'C' race pick in the other leg; or four correct 'A' races with correct 'B' picks in the other two races.

That's a very verbose way of saying, in this example, we have eight separate placepot tickets which are shown in the image above.

This will all make sense in a day or two, but do ask questions in the comments if anything is unclear - I may have over-explained things, or I may have under-explained them!

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Placing those bets at a cost of £18.10 (for 1p's it's £3.62) and moving to the BETS tab, I can see my tickets listed there (the P/L has some other bets in it, so ignore that for now) :

 

What I do is export the csv, and then track the bets during the day in that spreadsheet. I'll shown how I do this in a separate video. The Bath tickets look like this:

Leg 7 calculates the value of winning units for each row as I update the cells in Legs 1-6 columns once the results are known.

*

There's a lot of information in this post, much of it redundant if you already understand the ABCX method. One other very important point is that, even if you only want to have a single placepot ticket, that is, all 'A' picks, you can do that and still get 5% bonus on your winnings through Tix - so it's better value regardless of how you play.

And a reminder: the purpose of this series is not so much to tip a bunch of winners, or to have everyone play the same picks on the placepot/quadpot/jackpot; but, rather, to demonstrate how the Tix tool works and why it's a far smarter - and better value - play than placing bets directly into the placepot pool at tote or with your bookmaker.

- Matt

Placepot Fun

/in , /by

As a bit of a change, I recorded my thought processes - not quite literally - during the framing of a couple of placepots I struck today. As usual, I deployed the 'in development' ticket builder to place optimized part-perms (don't worry if that sounds like alienspeak, I'll clarify another day - basically, it takes my picks and breaks them into the most likely set of outcome combinations).

I went at Ffos Las and Hamilton on video, and also had a small roll at Uttoxeter. Happily, the recorded pair both collected, while I exited at Uttoxeter when a non-runner took a five horse race down to four (win only). Annoying as I normally cover that scenario in my play. Here are the tickets I placed, where * is unnamed favourite, lowest racecard number when joint- or co-favourites:

 

 

Anyway, the main purpose of the videos is to share a little of the things I look at when framing this sort of bet. There is no narrative, just a bit of music - feel free to mute if you no likey - but you'll be able to follow the cursor around the screen, which is a reasonable proxy for my thinking out aloud.

[The controls bottom right will handle tweaks to volume, playback speed, and full screen toggle]

 

Ffirst up, viva Ffos Las Vegas. You can track the results here - choose 'Recent Results' > 'Thu 8 Jun' > then use the dropdown for meeting.

 

 

The tickets shaped up like this in the end (number of placed selections replacing the actual selections, which you can see in the video):

Ffos Las placepot paid £90.30 with tote's 5% uplift, so that was a nice 7/2+ winner for the £18.80 stake and £1 worth of winning tix - and plenty of fun through the afternoon.

 

Meanwhile, at Hamilton Park, I rolled the dice like this:

 

The tickets were thus:

This time I had £2.20 in winning tix, of a dividend that paid £26.25 for each pound, again factoring in tote's 5% bonus for betting with them. So £57.75 for a stake of £20.40, a 7/4 shot or so.

Nothing earth-shatteringly profitable, but two solid returns on workaday dividends and, crucially, great craic all afternoon.

 

For what it's worth - after the fact, literally nothing - here's the £18.12 Uttoxeter overture I played:

 

And here's the tiny in-running saver I had on the horse that blew up the placepot, which made it a free bet:

 

I hope there's something in the videos above worth thinking about in terms of the parts of the racecards you look at for various things; you have to make some inference on the basis that there's no commentary, but I'm sure at least some people will appreciate that all the more!

Stay lucky,

Matt