Tix Picks, 7th September 2024

A losing day on Friday, stakes of £18 returning only £4.33 after a leg 2 bomb out left just one 'C' ticket (below) remaining. That's often the case, of course, and on we go.

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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a fat Scoop 6 pool for the ultra-brave and deep-pocketed, plus a £100,000 guaranteed placepot at Haydock.

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Kempton, placepot

Really, really competitive fare today and no obvious banker safe havens at the three big meetings. There's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Kempton as well as the £100k guarantee at Haydock and I'll roll the dice on the Sunbury beaches.

Leg 1: A 2yo Group 3 to kick off, 6f and ten runners. Draw and pace can be big factors at Kempton, as this heat map implies. It could be tricky for Jouncy to get any sort of run from the outside box and I'm against him, though his form is solid if he does find a passage. More obvious is Adrian Keatley's Symbol Of Strength, 12lb clear on official ratings and surely odds on - rather than 7/4 - if trained by a more fashionable handler. That said, he's yet to run off turf but was an excellent length third in the G2 Gimcrack last time. He has a good draw and run style for this course and is a sole 'A'.

Leg 2: Seven runners - ugh - for this 1m4f Group 3 and Hamish, winner of the race in 2021, is another that is well clear on official ratings. He was second in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Ascot two back but then flopped a bit in a G2 at Newmarket last time. If he comes back close to his best - at age eight, that's not a given - he'll win here. A.

Kalpana is an improving three-year-old filly and a daughter of a very interesting sire in Study Of Man. She's been second and first in Listed contests, sandwiching a bronze medal in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, and she gets a stone in age and sex allowances from the old boy Hamish. Her outside draw isn't ideal, even in a longer race and shorter field, but is mitigated by her tending to race handily in a field where not many do that (Cemhaan the only obvious other): she's on A as well in what is unimaginative play on my part.

Leg 3: The London Mile final, a 14-runner handicap at the - you guessed it - mile range. Very competitive field and again wide draws will have their work cut out as this image demonstrates:

The takeaway here is that if you have a double digit draw, it will be tough to get involved.

Kilt is favourite on his second handicap start and has no chinks in his armour bar experience. He is tractable in terms of run style, is drawn in stall 2, comes from the Haggas barn and the form of his two novice runs is working our brilliantly. Not so much the form of his handicap debut but we've since yet to see the only horse to finish ahead of him there and it was nearly three lengths-plus back to the rest. The first three favourites on this card could easily win.

But I want some B backup here. Valkyrian is a four-year-old that has already run 27 times - she's tough! Her last four AW spins have been 2122 and she keeps going up the handicap. It's only three days since her last run and, though I respect connections and she has a good draw/progressive profile, I'm a little wary off a very busy campaign and that recent run. She might defy both and she's reluctantly going on B, simply because four fancied runners are drawn 10, 11, 13 and 14. Vultar also goes on B, Clive Cox's runner having been 112 in three track spins and exiting trap six.

Whitcombe Rockstar is a third B despite a draw in 14. He's won over course and distance from stall 10 of 13 and stall 11 of 12, meaning he must have a turbo kick at the end of his races.

On C, I'll take those other wide lads, Talis Evolvere and Longlai as well as unnamed favourite.

Leg 4: Six go to post in a nursery handicap and coincidence players, perhaps especially Scottish ones, might enjoy the Kilt/Tilted Kilt double in consecutive races. William Knight's handicap debutant has a lot in his corner, including the masterful Neil Callan on top.

I'm not mad about Fearless Freddy's form - I might be wrong - and am swerving him; instead, I like the progressive Chesneys Charm: he needed every yard of the seven furlongs to get up on the line at Wolves last time and this extra eighth should be ideal. I also respect George Scott's handicap debut record and so Toy Soldier is on B tickets. I'll timidly lob the other trio on C.

Leg 5: A dozen runners for the London Sprint Series Final over 6f. Draw and run style are again huge considerations as you can see below:

An inside berth and/or a front-running style are important. Wide and waited with is tough, really tough. The pace horses Habooba and Radio Goo Goo both get automatic C slots at least, and I'm upgrading Habooba to B courtesy of his 9 from 10 place record in 6f all-weather races.

Favourite Heathcliff is more of a 7f horse (his distance win last time was on the more searching straight six at Newcastle) and could be done for speed in this contest; I prefer the chances of top weight Ferrous whose sand level is better than his grass one. If he can get a nice position from his inside stall he's a runner. A. Intervention was a close up sixth in this race last year having been messed about with at the start, and that's an effort that can be upgraded a touch. He's very consistent in AW sprints and has a good draw for an in-form team. B. Al Barez is another well drawn horse but he'll need the splits given his hold up style; in any case, he has a great gear change and completes the B group.

Leg 6: A trappy sextet closes with a 1m4f older horse handicap in which Enrico Caruso looks a worthy jolly for the Gosdens. The form of his handicap debut win last time has worked out well, with the second winning both times since. It was more than six further lengths back to the third, and the fouth has won a Newmarket handicap since. This longer trip should be fine, though Shoemark doesn't want to leave Enrico with too much ground to make up.

Assail was given that mission impossible closing assignment here two back, just missing the frame, and then got it done at Ascot last time over this trip. He is likely to be on the premises and is a second A play.

Wonder Legend is hard to quantify and, on balance, I'll sidestep him with two solid A's already. Harder to ignore is Night Breeze, a big improver this season and one that has been getting plenty of the Racing League prize money. He's been busy but may not be finished yet. B. Haku has some good runs at the track, usually just outside the places and that makes him a C play only along with unnamed favourite. I'll throw the filly Juana Ines on C, too: her trainer does very well on HC2 and she ran a cracker in an Ascot novice last backend and gets the tongue tie as well as the hood for the first time. Interesting.

*

A few chances taken, especially the banker jolly in the first. You could place lay it to insure your position if that's your thing.

5p units makes for a £17.60 spread this afternoon. Obviously, lots of risk, especially early, but that's the nature of the game. Good luck!

Matt

p.s. Sundays are a great day for placepots - and often for jackpots too - but it's a day off for Tix Picks. Back on Monday...

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