Tag Archive for: William Buick

Rebel’s Romance digs deep for Hardwicke honours

Globetrotting star Rebel’s Romance belatedly got Charlie Appleby off the mark at Royal Ascot this year with a typically determined display in the Hardwicke Stakes.

A dual winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, a multiple Group One victor in Germany and also successful at the highest level in Dubai and Hong Kong, the seven-year-old secured his biggest victory on home soil to date in last month’s Yorkshire Cup and he was a 6-4 shot to follow up under William Buick.

Favourite backers will have had few concerns, with Rebel’s Romance travelling strongly throughout and he found plenty up the straight to score comfortably by a length and three-quarters from Al Riffa, with Ghostwriter third.

Appleby, who had not saddled a Royal Ascot winner since 2022 and had seen well-fancied horses like Notable Speech, Ruling Court, Cinderella’s Dream and Treanmor beaten this week, was relieved to get himself into the big-race winner’s enclosure.

“Rebel’s Romance is a worldwide superstar. I’ve got a picture of this fellow on my bedside table. He means that much to us all,” said the Moulton Paddocks handler.

“He’s the only horse I know that you can take to Hong Kong and he’ll get you into any bar and restaurant! You can get in anywhere on the back of Rebel’s Romance.

“As William says, he’s his best friend and they have that great rapport there. You couldn’t get two more willing partners together.

“I have to give credit to the team at home. When you have an older horse, to keep them sound and keep them going, for him to have his enthusiasm year after year at this level.

“As they get older they all taper, as we all do, that’s expected. He might get a bit slower but his enthusiasm and his heart does not falter one iota.”

Rebel's Romance and William Buick return to the winner's enclosure
Rebel’s Romance and William Buick return to the winner’s enclosure (John Walton/PA)

Reflecting on the week, Appleby added: “You can come here thinking you’re fully loaded and have great chances, and you can walk away with excuses, but that’s racing. I would like to think that we compose ourselves well, we take it on the chin and then we look forward to moving on.

“Once something comes to Rebel’s Romance, he finds. You very rarely get a horse that when it gets into the red, he still goes.

“If there was one horse that you were having to roll your last dice on in this game, it was going to be him. Win, lose or draw he’s going to go out there and go out on his sword for you.”

Joseph O’Brien was proud of the performance of runner-up Al Riffa, saying: “Fantastic run, probably unlucky to meet a horse like Rebel’s Romance in that race, but we’re very proud of our horse, who is a real star for us and he’s run his legs off for us again today.

“Hopefully there will be plenty more big days with him to come this season. He’s a beautiful horse and he always runs to a rating not too far off 120, and it’s hard to find horses like that.

“I wouldn’t be against trying a little bit further with him – he’s got plenty of stamina in his pedigree. I think we’ll probably think outside the box with him a little bit now.”

The Clive Cox-trained Ghostwriter was sold for £2million on the eve of the Royal meeting and shaped with plenty of encouragement in his first start in the Amo Racing colours.

Kia Joorabchian now owns Ghostwriter
Kia Joorabchian now owns Ghostwriter (Mike Egerton/PA)

Owner Kia Joorabchian said: “That was the first time at that trip (mile and a half) and I think he has handled that trip very well.

“I’m definitely not disappointed because probably that’s one of his best runs ever. Clearly he’s got very strong heart and I think he’s going to give us a lot of fun.”

On what the future holds for the four-year-old, he added: “He like the (fast) ground so maybe somewhere like America, Australia, those kinds of places he’d relish.

“No decisions from us, but we are very pleased with his run and I think he’s managed to prove that the amount that we invested in him was worth it.

“Of course you’d like to win, but being beaten by a horse that has won the Sheema Classic, the Breeders’ Cup, big races in Qatar, that horse is a massive horse and I’m happy for Charlie – he’s broken his duck before me!”

Ombudsman shows star quality with sizzling Prince of Wales’s display

Ombudsman displayed a devastating change of gear to run out a brilliant winner of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Successful on each of his first four starts last season, including a Group Three win in France, John and Thady Gosden’s colt met with defeat for the first time when second to Almaqam on his return to action in last month’s Brigadier Gerard at Sandown.

The Godolphin-owned four-year-old faced a further hike in class for this Group One feature, but after being settled well off the strong early pace by William Buick, he engaged overdrive once in the clear halfway up the straight and readily picked off the gallant Anmaat to win by two lengths going away.

See The Fire was third, another two and a half lengths behind the 7-1 winner, but Aidan O’Brien’s Los Angeles, the 13-8 favourite, faded into fifth place.

Gosden senior, celebrating his 70th Royal Ascot winner, said: “He’s a special horse and it’s just a question of an owner giving you the time to let them mature and get there.

“He’s got a turn of foot and he (Buick) knew it, it was a matter of getting out, but I did notice when he finally got daylight there was a furlong to go.”

He went on: “It’s a question of, when you get to the straight, whether you get the luck. He wasn’t in a position where he could swing round the field, it was more of a case of waiting for the gap.

“He was very patient. I knew when there was a gap at the furlong pole that this horse has an extraordinary turn of foot – he was patient and he was rewarded.

“When we bought him he was an immature horse, he didn’t run as a two-year-old and as a three-year-old we brought him on and then put him away. He’s horse who is now properly grown and developed as a four-year-old.

The Prince of Wales presents a commemorative saddle blanket to trainer John Gosden following his 70th win at Royal Ascot with Ombudsman
The Prince of Wales presents a commemorative saddle blanket to trainer John Gosden following his 70th win at Royal Ascot with Ombudsman (David Davies/PA)

“He’s a mile-and-a-quarter horse, he’s got a wonderful turn of foot as you saw and I think we’ll play to that strength. As far as I’m concerned he’s done nothing but grow in stature.

“He is a horse that because he hasn’t over-raced this year, he could be a horse you could look at the Eclipse.

“That wouldn’t be my choice (to run him against Field Of Gold).”

Thady Gosden added: “When William found a gap he asked him to go through it and he was very quick.

“The Eclipse looks like the natural step to take. It was a top-class field today, it was the most elite field of the week as it often is and he showed what he was capable of there.

“It wasn’t a huge field but it was highly elite, as you’d expect at this meeting. He certainly came up good.”

William Buick was all smiles after winning on Ombudsman
William Buick was all smiles after winning on Ombudsman (John Walton/PA)

Buick was noticeably jubilant on passing the line, after an opening day that had seen high-profile reverses for Notable Speech and Ruling Court.

He said: “This place tames lions. It’s so special to win here because it’s so tough, everyone comes here in great form and everyone is doing their very best of course.

“They went a hard gallop. I was always going to have to ride for a bit of luck and he quickened instantly. I thought he was impressive.

“I think that was a taste of what’s to come for sure. He’s got low miles on the clock, he’s an exciting horse.”

Saba Desert catches the eye with winning start at Sandown

Saba Desert made no mistake on debut to take the British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes for Charlie Appleby at Sandown.

The Godolphin-owned and bred colt is by Dubawi and out of Finespun, a daughter of Luca Cumani’s Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Gossamer.

Godolphin and Appleby chose the same race as a career starting point for Native Trail in 2021, who went on to win two Group Ones by the end of his two-year-old year and was the Irish 2,000 Guineas winner the following term.

Those are big shoes to fill, but under William Buick the 4-7 favourite looked potentially nice in prevailing by three-quarters of a length to get his own juvenile campaign under way.

“It was important to get some cover on him and do everything as you’d want to first time out,” Buick said.

“He’s a very fast horse, with a good attitude and a good mind in everything he does. I was very pleased with what he did there.

“He’s got plenty of pace. When you ask him, he’s there for you. He’s a very talented colt.”

Rising Power also made a winning start in the British EBF Novice Stakes, to give Godolphin, Appleby and Buick a double.

The Wootton Bassett colt was sent off as the 1-2 favourite over a bare-minimum five-furlong trip.

Rising Power kick-started a Godolphin double
Rising Power kick-started a Godolphin double (Adam Davy/PA)

He found an adversary in Rod Millman’s 2-1 chance Killavia, but after the two locked horns it was Rising Power who took a three-quarter-length verdict.

“He was very gutsy. It was a little bit harder work than I probably would have liked or expected, but he’s a horse that probably wants six furlongs now, or even seven,” Buick told Racing TV.

“He ran against some speedy types there and showed his quality, that’s always good to have, he battled on and kept responding the whole way.

“He’s not the biggest horse, but he’s got a big heart.”

Evaluating Jockeys by Percentage of Rivals Beaten

In this article I will put 35 jockeys under the microscope, writes Dave Renham. These are the riders with the most rides per year, on average, over the past four years. The data has been taken from UK flat racing (turf and all-weather (AW) and the full years 2021 to 2024.

Introduction

I have further limited the findings to mounts sent off at an Industry Starting Price (ISP) of 20/1 or shorter, in order to try to eliminate most of the horses that had little or no chance; and, further, because very big-priced winners tend to skew profit figures.

For this piece I will primarily examine the data using ‘Percentage of Rivals Beaten’, although I also plan to look at strike rates and A/E indices. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a calculation based on a horse's finishing position in relation to field size. It makes key distinctions between a horse finishing, say, fourth in a seven-horse race (PRB 50%, three rivals beaten, beaten by three rivals) and finishing fourth in a sixteen-horse race (PRB 80%, twelve rivals beaten, beaten by three rivals). We express the PRB as a number between 0 and 1. So, in the examples above, 50% is 0.5 and 80% is 0.8.

As racing researchers we can often be blighted by small sample sizes when analysing, for example, win strike rates. Hence, there is a strong argument to suggest that PRB figures are a more accurate metric, simply because they make datasets bigger: they award a sliding performance score to every runner in every race, whereas win strike rate only awards the winner a score with all other finishers getting zero.

Today's offering has a slightly different flow from usual I will be writing it "as I go along". In other words, I’m sharing the research and my thinking process stage by stage, rather than doing all the research and then writing about my findings afterwards. Thus, my main commentary will appear to be in the present tense. If that makes sense, let's crack on (and if it doesn't, it soon will!)

Top Jockeys' PRB: Overall

I will start by sharing the average PRB figures for each of the 35 jockeys over this four-year period. They are ordered alphabetically across two graphs:

 

 

 

 

To provide a benchmark, the average figure when combining these jockeys was halfway between 0.58 and 0.59, so 0.585 to be precise. Oisin Murphy has the highest PRB figure, 0.64, followed by five jockeys tied on 0.62 – William Buick, James Doyle, Rob Havlin, Jack Mitchell and Danny Tudhope. Tom Eaves, Cam Hardie and Andrew Mullen have the joint lowest PRB figure of 0.54.

It should be noted that all riders in this sample are above the 0.5 PRB benchmark and so even the lowest in the cohort are out-performing the norm.

Top Jockeys' PRB: ISP 6/4 or shorter

Although I have restricted qualifiers to those priced 20/1 or shorter, there are clearly some jockeys who have more rides at shorter prices than others. Hence, I am assuming that jockeys should have higher PRBs because of this. To help analyse and potentially confirm this hypothesis I am going to look at the percentage of rides each jockey had with horses priced 6/4 or shorter. The table shows the splits:

 

 

There is a huge variance here, from William Buick with more than 13% of his rides sent off 6/4 or shorter, to Cam Hardie at less than 1%. Of the six jockeys with the highest average PRBs I noted earlier, five of them were in the top six for the highest percentage of rides (highlighted in blue in this table). Therefore, we can see there is a strong looking correlation between price and PRB, as we should expect.

Top Jockeys' PRB: ISP 12/1 to 20/1

It makes sense next to look at the percentage of rides each jockey had when the qualifiers were bigger prices in order to consider both ends of the price spectrum. Therefore, below is a table showing these percentages when considering percentage of rides from runners priced 12/1 to 20/1.

 

 

The three jockeys with the highest percentages (shown in blue) are the jockeys who had the lowest overall PRB figures shared earlier, namely Tom Eaves, Cam Hardie and Andrew Mullen: this is further evidence of clear positive correlation. Also, the lowest four percentages in this group are for Messrs Buick, Murphy, Doyle (James) and Mitchell.

At this early point in my research I am starting to appreciate that despite the fact that PRB is a really useful metric, for this type of research the price of runners is also very important and can significantly sway the balance one way or the other. Hence, the market will be factored in for the remainder of what follows.

Top Jockeys' PRB by Price Range

Having established the importance of the starting price, I have decided to calculate PRBs for different price bands for all 35 jockeys. The brackets I am going to use are again based on Industry Starting Price and they are as follows:

 

 

In the table below I have collated the PRBs for each jockey for each price band. The average figures for all jockeys in the list are shown in blue at the bottom of each column, and I have highlighted any PRB that is at least 3% above the average or at least 3% below the average. The 3% ‘above group’ (positive) is highlighted in green, the 3% ‘below group’ (negative) is in red.

 

 

The colour coding helps to highlight jockeys that seem to perform above the norm and those that may have performed below what might be expected within each price band. There were three jockeys who obtained two ‘greens’: Robert Havlin, Clifford Lee and Kieran O’Neill. And there were four jockeys who obtained two or more ‘reds’: William Buick (3), Holly Doyle (2), Joe Fanning (3) and Rob Hornby (2).

 

Top Jockeys' PRB: All-Round Performance

I am thinking that another way we could analyse these data is to simply add up each jockey’s six PRB figures in the above table and compare them.  Below, then, are the riders with the top ten combined PRB figures when adding the six values together:

 

 

It could be argued that these are the top 10 performing jockeys from my original list of 35 as their totals are based on the overall performance across different price ranges. From looking at these findings I would be happy to see one of these ten riding a horse I am keen to back. Rab Havlin, who has consistently shown positive figures in the research to date, tops the list on a combined total of 3.99. (0.88 + 0.76 + 0.68 + 0.65 + 0.55 + 0.47).

Next, here are the lowest ten combined PRB totals from our sample of the top 35 riders:

 

 

As can be seen, we are talking small margins here so despite these ten being at the bottom we know that they are all still top-notch riders. However, in terms of PRB figures within certain price bands, they have performed with slightly less success than the rest of the jockeys in this sample.

To complete the set here are the remaining jockeys (positioned 11th to 25th) with their PRB totals. Due to the bigger group, I am using a table rather than a graph:

 

 

Top Jockeys: Other Metrics

I stated earlier that PRBs are arguably the most accurate metric but it always prudent to consider other metrics where possible in order to attain a stronger 'feel' for the data.

We know that finishing fifth in an 18-runner race will produce a better PRB figure than finishing eighth in the same the race, but usually finishing fifth does not make punters money (unless those generous bookie types are offering extra places).

At this point, then, I am thinking about the key battles in terms of finishing first rather than second and, therefore, I am going to share the wins, runs, strike rate, profit/loss and A/E indices for all 35 jockeys. As with the PRB data this does not include rides on horses priced over 20/1 ISP. Profits and losses have been calculated to Betfair SP less 2% commission. The A/E indices are based on Betfair prices and any figure above 1.00 has been coloured in green:

 

 

Somewhat surprisingly, 18 of the 35 jockeys have secured a profit which is impressive considering there are not any really big BSP winners to skew the returns. In fact, the highest winning BSP was 46.0 and there were only three winners in total above BSP 40.0, and only 23 above BSP 30.0 (out of total of nearly 12,000 winners).

Rossa Ryan, Saffie Osborne and William Buick have the best ROI%s (above 7%), and they each have one of the top five A/E indices. Impressively, Ryan has made a blind profit in each of the four years, Osborne and Buick matching that feat in three of the four years surveyed. There are two jockeys that made a loss in each of the four years, namely David Allan and James Doyle.

Conclusions

All this is helping me, and hopefully you, to start building a more complete picture of jockey performance; or, at least, the performance of these 35 top riders. The PRB data have given us an extra layer on top of the usual metrics we focus on. However, it is becoming clear to me that for this type of jockey-based research we do need other metrics (win percentage, profits, A/E indices, etc) to bring betting utility to the party.

I am just starting to expand the jockey PRB research into other areas and there is plenty more to share; so I have come to the realisation that this article will spawn a second piece. Thus, it is probably too early to draw any key conclusions from the research so far as there are more pieces of the puzzle to add.

However, next week I have a Royal Ascot article ready to go, so it affords me a little extra time to do further digging for part two of this jockey deep dive!

- DR

Monday Musings: The Jugglers

The second Saturday in September illustrated how trainers and jockeys’ agents need to be expert jugglers at this time of year, writes Tony Stafford. We had the Irish Champion Stakes, worth a total €£1.15 million (€712k to the winner) and the Betfred St Leger, £830k and £421k to the winner, yet three UK champion jockeys were riding more than 3,000 miles away from either venue.

The trio - Oisin Murphy, William Buick and Frankie Dettori - all lined up in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes for 2yo fillies over a mile and worth £177k at the Woodbine racetrack in Toronto, Canada. Buick was on the 4/5 favourite for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby, the dual early-season winner Mountain Breeze, but she could only manage eighth place.

Ahead of her were Murphy, fifth on 65/1 shot Ready To Battle, for dominant local trainer Mark Casse despite being the outsider of his trio; and Dettori was one place behind on the Christophe Clement filly Annascaul, the race second favourite.

He was the only one of our itinerant trio to have a ride in the next Graded race, the Ontario Matron (G3) on the Tapeta track. He finished fourth for Casse who again had three runners without securing the win.

Only five turned up for the E P Taylor Stakes for fillies and mares, run on the turf track. In the past the E P Taylor was a frequent target for UK and especially French runners. It honours the Canadian breeder Eddie Taylor. He stood Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Northern Dancer, the stallion who first tickled the fancy of Vincent O’Brien and led, with Robert Sangster and John Magnier’s help, to the legacy of Sadler’s Wells and, through him, to his even more influential son Galileo.

This year, the E P Taylor was a tame affair considering there was £266k for the winner. Oisin got a ride here but could do no better than fourth of five on Blush for French-based trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias. All three of the visiting riders had been previous winners of the race.

Charlie Appleby and Andrew Balding staged a rematch from a Listed race on King George Day at Ascot in July, with Al Qudra, the winner of that race for Charlie and Will, going into the bet365 <they get in everywhere!> Summer Plate over a mile on the turf as favourite, having beaten New Century by just over two lengths then.

Here Oisin turned the form around on identical terms, winning by one and a quarter lengths from Al Qudra in another Grade 1 again worth £177k, as with the juvenile fillies earlier. The share of the spoils made Oisin’s awayday worthwhile and even in defeat Buick got his mitts on a portion of the 60 grand for second.

The principal reason for the Appleby/Godolphin attack was presumably the featured Rogers Woodbine Mile, with a hefty £355,000 to the winner. The Buick mount, Naval Power, was the 11/20 favourite but finished only fourth to a couple of Mark Casse runners, siphoning up between them a good deal more than half a million Canadian bucks. Naval Power had been a very close second on his previous start when Dettori had the mount in a valuable supporting race on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs in early May.

If you feel sorry for Frankie, the pensioner (in jockey terms) started out the previous weekend looking forward to a hatful of Aidan O’Brien mounts at Kentucky Downs, but only Greenfinch, who finished fourth, ran, the others being withdrawn. But then, a week yesterday at the same track, May Day Ready won a £483k first prize and that was supplemented by a double at the same track on Wednesday. Dettori won the £238k Gold Cup with Limited Liability and then the Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational with Kathymarissa and another £720k.

His win prizes amounted to £1,323,000 over the week. No wonder he loves being in the US!

What did they miss while waiting for Saturday in Canada? At Doncaster there was an eighth St Leger win for Aidan O’Brien as the inexperienced and in some ways still green Jan Bruegel edged out Illinois in a thrilling tussle up the Doncaster straight. Both colts are by Galileo and at the final opportunity, his sons dominated yet another English Classic.

Impossible to separate in the market, it looked like a potential dead-heat in the race until Sean Levey, who started out life as an O’Brien apprentice before relocating to the UK, forced his mount’s head in front close to the line.

Behind in third and fourth, also locked together, were Deira Mile and Sunway who crossed the line only a nose apart. I thought it a mealy-mouthed decision by the stewards to turn the form around, denying Deira Mile’s ever-adventurous Ahmed Al Sheikh of Green Team Racing another placed run in the English Classics of which he is so enamoured.

Bay City Roller was a good winner of the Champagne Stakes that opened the card, but it might have been a different story had not Chancellor prematurely burst out of the gate. The Gosden colt, a smart scorer at the track last time, was third at Ascot in the race where Al Qudra beat New Century.

The raft of unlikely horse/trainer/jockey partnerships on this unusual day continued in the Portland Handicap, one of my favourite races with its intermediate sprint distance of around five and a half furlongs.

Here, the unluckiest horse in training, Peter Charalambous’s Apollo One, got the services of no less a partner than Christophe Soumillon. The Belgian, a multiple champion jockey in France, had just got his mount’s brave head in front of a gaggle of horses on the far side when the favourite American Affair flew down under the stands rail under Paul Mulrennan to beat him by a nose.

It was a notable win for Jim Goldie and, given the way he finished on Saturday, the Ayr Gold Cup in five days’ time must have its appeal. Peter Charalambous is adamant he would never ask Apollo One to run in the likely soft ground at Ayr, but it would be nice to think he would win a big sprint handicap before too long.

Over the past two seasons he has finished second in four big sprints, the Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup last year and the Stewards’ Cup and Portland in 2024. His total losing distance is barely two and a half lengths in those races.

Irish Champions Weekend featured a fine return to form by the slightly unpredictable but undeniably ultra-talented Auguste Rodin. He ran a great race in the Irish Champion Stakes but just failed to cope with the tenacious favourite Economics.

It had been a brave decision by William Haggas to resist running his colt in the Derby after his sensational <I use the word advisedly> Dante Stakes romp at York and, nicely rested, Haggas had given him an ideal warm-up run at Deauville last month for his main target here.

Economics came from some way back, as did Auguste Rodin. Tom Marquand sent his mount into the lead halfway up the short Leopardstown straight, when it appeared that Ryan Moore on the dual Derby winner was going marginally the easier, even getting his head in front in the last hundred yards. Economics, to his credit, pulled out extra and, despite battling all the way to the line, Auguste Rodin had to be content with an honourable second place.

The path for both horses is set in stone. Economics will now go to the Qipco Champion Stakes for what will be only his sixth career start. Auguste Rodin has the Breeders’ Cup Turf, which he won last year, as his autumn objective.

Just behind in third and fourth were the Japanese horse Shin Emperor, who should make a bold attempt at being the first from Japan to win the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, and fast-finishing Los Angeles, who probably would have fully extended his two stablemates at Doncaster.

His range of entries, from the Champion Stakes (ten furlongs) at Ascot to the British Champion Long Distance Cup (two miles) the same day and, a fortnight earlier, the Arc over one mile and a half reflect his untapped potential and versatility. I’d go the stayers’ route if he were mine – wishful thinking in the extreme!

Yesterday, Messrs Buick and Murphy made it back to the Curragh for the second day of the Irish Champions Weekend. They might not have won as they rode respectively Vauban and Giavellotto into second and third in the Irish St Leger, but at least they got a close-up view of the remarkable Kyprios.

Aidan O'Brien's six-year-old entire was taking his earnings past £2 million with an authoritative performance under Ryan Moore. It was Kyprios' 13th win in 17 career starts. After last year's injury problems and a curtailed season of only two second places, he has now repeated the same first five victories of his unbeaten four-year-old campaign and in the same  races.

That year (2022) he ended the season with victory in the Prix Du Cadran over two and a half miles - by twenty lengths! If he goes there and wins in three weeks it would be a double unbeaten six-timer, four of them at Group 1 level, surely a record, and one that will be exceptionally difficult to match in the future. He deserves to be regarded as at least the equal of Yeats as a stayer. Many will think him superior.

- TS

Monday Musings: Emollient

At any time over the past 20-odd years you would never have believed it possible, writes Tony Stafford. But when Tower Of London came with a breathtaking run from the back under Ryan Moore to win the Dubai Gold Cup, there was a beaming Michael Tabor on hand to welcome the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt into the winner’s enclosure.

Back home in the UK, I needed a second take as Nick Luck came across to interview him. “Congratulations”, said Luck. “Thank you, it’s my first time here”, replied Tabor.

“Your first time at Meydan?”, continued the interviewer. “Not just at Meydan, my first time ever in Dubai. It’s fantastic, not just the racecourse, the whole of Dubai!”

Whether Michael would have been quite as amiable following a third career bomb from Auguste Rodin in the £2.7milion to the winner Sheema Classic just over three hours later is immaterial. He said it and if the £400-odd grand victory for Tower Of London was chicken-feed in relation to the riches on offer later on, it still made the journey a success for Tabor and a number of elated fellow travellers celebrating the victory in the unsaddling enclosure afterwards.

For those two decades at the start of the millennium, Coolmore, especially Michael Tabor, had been sworn racecourse adversaries of the men from Dubai, largely in the person of Sheikh Mohammed Al Rashid bin Maktoum, Ruler of that Emirate.

Their mild-mannered if ultra-competitive trainer Aidan O’Brien would never have viewed the rivalry with anything like the fierceness of his owner, but I think we should applaud one man for the emollient qualities that made Saturday’s moment possible.

Step forward Charlie Appleby, the always-amiable Devonian who took over the training of half of Godolphin’s UK team. This occurred as a result of the misdeeds of Mahmood al Zarooni and his proven use of illicit means to propel his already formidable horses even further forward. Saeed bin Suroor was, and remains, supervising the other gradually shrinking portion.

One of the horses found to have been doped – but not at the time of his biggest success – was the 2012 St Leger winner Encke. It was in the spring of the following year that the eight-year punishment was handed down to the Dubai national. Ban served, he started to train again domestically with a much smaller team.

Appleby was al Zarooni’s assistant at the time of Encke’s St Leger and the biggest effect of that victory was that it denied Camelot, winner of that year’s 2000 Guineas and Derby, of what would have been the first Triple Crown in the UK since Vincent O’Brien and Nijinsky in 1970.

Al Zarooni’s ban came following a BHA inspection the following year after the St Leger found 11 horses testing positive to the presence of anabolic steroids in their systems. The steroids, he said, were brought back in his suitcase from the UAE, adding he “didn’t know they were prohibited”.

By the time of the ban, al Zarooni had won three races, two at the 2013 Craven meeting and another in the same week at Wolverhampton. Appleby took over soon after and sent out 80 winners that season. After almost two years off the track after his Classic success, Encke, still an entire, had three placed runs under the Appleby banner before disappearing without a trace.

The Appleby-Coolmore thawing of relations began with the mutual respect that Charlie and Aidan O’Brien invariably showed each other for their respective successes in major races. Also, Appleby’s and Ryan Moore’s children know each other very well. Charlie had no qualms about regularly congratulating Aidan and the owners, most often Michael Tabor, for their successes and Aidan responded in kind. Images of their mutual celebrations at Santa Anita and the like are still fresh in the memory.

Last year, there was the usual triumphal season for Coolmore and Aidan with yet another Derby, and other achievements, for Auguste Rodin. Contrastingly, it was the first time for a while that Appleby’s Classic generation had been below par. Last year’s two-year-olds will need to step up in the major races in 2024.

It didn’t take long though for Appleby to enjoy himself on his own terms. Despite struggling with periodic absences through his career, the Dubawi gelding Rebel’s Romance had proved himself a high-class performer, making the Breeders’ Cup Turf race in October 2022, his ninth win in only 12 starts.

After three disappointing performances last year he got back on track in a Listed race at Kempton in December and even though he followed up with a £1 million-plus pot in Doha last month he was allowed to start at 25/1. So now it’s 12 wins in 18, and £6.173m in prizemoney. Not bad!

While Auguste Rodin languished at the rear, reminiscent of his Guineas and King George meltdowns from last year, William Buick always had Rebel’s Romance in touch behind the front-running duo of Point Lonsdale, Auguste’s pacemaker, and the Japanese Stars On Earth. That Point Lonsdale, a 100/1 shot, could finish 6th, picking up almost £100k, shows just how far below expectations the favourite ran.

Hopefully, as last year, that first comeback run will be forgotten when he gets fully into stride. Nowadays it’s more a case of what a potential stallion has won rather the times he has lost that govern his marketability and, as a son of Deep Impact, there’ll always be room for him in Japan. They can afford him too!

Back in the Sheema Classic, Buick merely had to go past the front pair and wait for the expected late runners, but none came. Then a half-hour later, Charlie was just as delighted when the former Bob Baffert-trained Laurel River, now handled in Dubai by Bhupat Seemar made a mockery of the £10 million Dubai World Cup, never looking like relinquishing the long lead jockey Tadhg O’Shea initiated early in the ten-furlong dirt race.

The first prize of £5m should equate to about half a million quid for the rider who a decade or so ago regularly came to ride work for Brian Meehan at Manton, ostensibly in his job as he recalls it as number two (or more accurately surely three behind the late Hamdan Al Maktoum’s first jockey Paul Hanagan and recently retired Dane O’Neill). I always found Tadhg a friendly young man. It was a surprise at the time when he decided to go – like so many other fringe jockeys – to Dubai. He’s Beyond the Fringe now.

Laurel River was allowed to start at 17/2 amid a deluge of money for the Kazakhstan entry – sounds more like one of the heats of the Eurovision Song Contest – Kabirkhan, winner of 11 of his previous 12 starts.

A son of California Chrome, the 2014 Kentucky Derby and 2016 Dubai World Cup victor, Kabirkhan was a $12k buy from bargain basement Book 5 at Keeneland yearling sales in 2021. Sent to Kazakhstan where he went unbeaten at two, he was similarly never finding anything remotely to test him in his three-year-old season in Russia.

Now in the care of legendary locally based American handler Doug Watson and ridden by another of the long-term second-string jockeys Pat Dobbs, he was perfectly poised on the rail as Laurel River took off.

While Laurel River just went further and further away, the favourite faded and it was left to last year’s winner, the Japanese Ushba Tesoro, who came from miles behind to take second. Not quite the riches from 2023, but still worth nigh on £2 million for connections of the seven-year-old entire.

Frankie Dettori was back in ninth on Bob Baffert’s Newgate but, earlier, restored to the Godolphin blue, because amazingly he, unlike Buick, can ride at 8st5lb – given a few weeks’ notice, of course – he rode Appleby’s filly Star Of Mystery into second place behind six-year-old California Spangle, trained in Hong Kong by Tony Cruz, in the Al Quoz Sprint.

It wasn’t all gloom for Baffert. His colt Muth, by Good Magic (2nd Kentucky Derby) won the Arkansas Derby comfortably at Oaklawn Park. That race was worth £620k and Baffert used it successfully as the prep back in 2015 when his American Pharoah became the first US Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

Justify in 2018 is the most recent of 13 horses to achieve that feat. He, like American Pharoah, is based at Ashford stud in Kentucky, Coolmore’s US base. Justify’s sons and daughters are already showing extraordinary ability, led of course by City Of Troy.

The winter 2000 Guineas favourite had his first look at a racecourse in 2024 at Leopardstown (re-scheduled from waterlogged Naas) a week ago. From the time he did what he did to his useful opponents in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last July, I’ve been convinced he’s the best two-year-old I’ve seen.

The Dewhurst win was just as emphatic, his all-the-way near four-length margin earning a 125 rating. Roll on May!

Talking of the Derby, there was a hark back to another time when an old-style “chalk jockey” won the race. Back in the height of Covid, the 2020 running was won by Serpentine, 25/1, ridden by the unknown, possibly even to his parents, Emmet McNamara, to the quietest ever reception for a Derby winner. I’m sure Bernard Kantor would have been quite bemused, consulting his race card as he supervised formalities after the race.

Serpentine, now a seven-year-old, won a 10-furlong Group 3 race at Rosehill, Australia, over the weekend. By Galileo, he was having his 18th race and first success since his Derby triumph, the last twelve following a gelding operation in March two years ago. He is now trained by close Coolmore friend Gai Waterhouse and joint licence-holder Adrian Bott.

  • TS

Jockey Profiles: Best of the Rest

This is the fifth and final article in my series of articles on jockeys, writes Dave Renham. In this piece I will be looking at three more top jockeys trying to pinpoint their strongest stats, be it positive or negative. As with the previous four articles I have analysed the last eight full years of flat racing in the UK and Ireland (2015-2022). I have used the Geegeez Query Tool as well as the Profiler Tool, amongst other things. In all the tables the profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP, but I have shared Betfair Starting Price where appropriate. Let's start with last season's champion jockey...

William Buick Jockey Profile

William Buick became Godolphin’s first choice jockey in 2016 and hence it should come as no surprise that within a year his win strike rate soon began to edge up:

 

 

As we can see from 2017 onwards he has achieved yearly strike rates in excess of 20%, with 2022 being a particularly good year. His overall record reads as follows:

 

 

Buick backers incurred relatively modest losses to Industry SP when we look at all races as a whole. Considering he has had over 4000 rides this is quite impressive. To BSP, backing Buick ‘blind’, you would have made a profit of £317.71 (ROI +7.5%).

Let us now look at his performance for different trainers over this eight year period (minimum 100 rides):

 

 

Buick when teaming up with his boss, Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby, has secured a strike rate edging close to three wins in every ten rides. Not only that, they have combined to virtually break even to SP, with profits to BSP hitting £139.33 (ROI 9.6%). Indeed, to BSP they have secured profits in six of the last seven seasons. His record is less impressive when riding for the Gosden stable – a stable for whom he has been stable jockey in the past - with a modest strike rate of under 15% and poor returns.

One trainer not in the table due to the minimum ride stipulation is Sir Michael Stoute. Buick and Stoute do not team up that regularly, but when they do their record is excellent – 19 wins from 73 (SR 26%) for a profit of £42.07 (ROI +57.6%). To BSP profits that increases to £57.59 (ROI +78.9%). Their PRB figure is excellent also standing at 0.68.

One thing I like about Buick is that he is an excellent rider from the front. He wins on board virtually one ride in three when taking the early lead. Here are his win percentage splits for the four main run styles:

 

 

Buick follows the usual trend in that his front running rides win more often than his prominent ones which in turn out-perform mid div / hold up rides. For the record, at distances of 1m2f or less his front running strike rate stands at 35.1%; at 1m3f or longer it drops to 19.1%.

As regular readers will know, I like to look at favourite run style data, too, as this eliminates any potential selection bias regarding ‘good horses at the front, bad ones at the back’. Here are the relative win strike rates for Buick-ridden favourites in terms of the four main run styles:

 

 

Again, front running market leaders did best by some margin, while favourites that raced mid-division early had a very poor record: these runners would have lost you 26p for every £1 bet. Buick's record on held up favourites are a lot stronger than most jockeys, presumably because of the number of Godolphin horses able to outclass their opposition.

Before moving on, let us look at some additional statistics for the reigning champ:

  1. Buick has a great record at Newmarket from a significant number of rides. Specifically, he scored on 212 winners from 843 (SR 25.2%) for a BSP profit of £94.09 (ROI +11.2%). When riding for Charlie Appleby at HQ the record is even more impressive – 132 winners from 412 rides (SR 32%) for a BSP profit of £93.34 (ROI +22.7%).
  2. In contrast, at York his record reads 24 wins from 197 (SR 12.2%) for a BSP loss of £41.53 (ROI -21.1%).
  3. On 2yos Buick has won 25% of races returning a BSP return of 6p in the £.
  4. On 2yos having their second career start Buick has a strike rate of 1 in 3 and has returned a profit to BSP of just over 15 pence in the £.

Buick is a very good all round jockey who I am always happy to see riding a horse I fancy.

 

Jim Crowley Jockey Profile

Jim Crowley is a seasoned campaigner, and retained rider for the Shadwell operation, who is right up there when it comes to win rate. Here is his overall record going back to 2015:

 

 

These are excellent stats and backing all Crowley runners to BSP would have yielded a profit of £424.79 to £1 level stakes, equating to returns of nearly 8p in the £.

Crowley rides for numerous different trainers and there are 16 trainers for whom he has ridden more than 100 times. Here are their stats:

 

 

We see some very good stats here with seven of the 16 trainers showing a blind profit to Industry SP; and 11 trainers showing a profit to BSP.

Crowley has produced excellent results with horses from the top two in the betting when riding for Owen Burrows, William Haggas and the Gosden stable. All three have yielded good BSP returns on investment (Burrows +19.8%, Haggas +16% and the Gosden stable +8.6%).

In terms of courses, Crowley has ridden more than 100 times at 18 different venues. Here are the A/E indices at these tracks:

 

 

It is very impressive to note that eight courses have A/E indices in excess of 1.00 with Nottingham hitting a remarkable 1.57. His overall Nottingham stats are unsurprisingly outstanding – 43 wins from 131 rides (SR 32.8%) for an SP profit of £159.14 (ROI +121.5%). To BSP this improves to a profit of £186.86 (ROI +142.6%). His PRB course figure is also very strong standing at 0.65.

Here are a couple of stats for Crowley that are also worth sharing:

  1. He has an excellent record in very small fields. In races of five runners or fewer he has won 144 races from 410 rides (SR 35.1%) for a BSP profit of £130.46 (ROI +31.8%). He has made a profit to industry SP also of £84.64 (ROI +20.6%).
  2. On front runners he has performed especially well for trainers Charlie Hills and Owen Burrows. This is particularly true in races of 1 mile or less where Crowley hits the 34% win percentage mark for both trainers.

Crowley is hugely experienced and this shows in his stats.

 

Oisin Murphy Jockey Profile

Oisin Murphy was British Champion Jockey in 2019, 2020 and 2021. He did not race in 2022 as he was banned for two failed breath tests and breaking coronavirus rules but has resumed riding with a win percentage of 17.5% in 2023, slightly above his overall record as can be seen in the table below:

 

 

These are sound stats given Murphy has taken over 2000 more rides than Buick and 1000 more than Crowley, despite missing the whole of 2022! He clearly is a rider who does not have an issue with being busy. Like Crowley he has ridden 100 times or more for several trainers and here are the stats (ordered by strike rate):

 

 

Although he has not made a profit to SP when riding for Saeed bin Suroor, they are a combination to keep an eye on. The PRB of 0.70 is particularly high and, when betting to BSP, they have snuck into profit. Indeed to BSP, all bar Simcock and Williams have produced a profit with Oisin in the plate. Keeping with the BSP theme, if we combine all nine trainers, then Murphy has made a profit with them as a group in every year from 2015 to 2021. The combined yearly returns to BSP are shown in the graph below:

 

 

It is rare to get seven profitable years in a row when combining as many as nine different trainers.

There are four other trainers to keep an eye out for where Murphy has had less than 100 rides in each case. They are the Harry & Roger Charlton barn (10 wins from 32), Mick Appleby (16 wins from 66), John & Thady Gosden (31 wins from 84) and John Butler (8 wins from 21).

Murphy has a notably good record on 2yos with an overall strike rate in the review period of 17.4% thanks to 256 winners from 1473 runners. To Industry SP these runners yielded small losses of just under 4p in the £; to BSP, however, this turns into a profit of over 13 pence in the £. Here are three additional 2yo stats worth sharing:

  1. 2yos that have started in the top four of the betting have provided 226 wins from 971 runners (SR 23.3%) for a BSP profit of £92.32 (ROI +9.5%)
  2. For the Gosden stable he has had 14 2yo winners from just 39 runners (SR 35.9%) for a BSP profit of £12.08 (ROI +31.0%)
  3. 2yos that Murphy has taken into the lead early have won over 30% of their races. But...
  4. 2yos that were held up by Murphy have won just 8.4% of the time

Continuing with the run style theme, I have always liked Murphy from the front as an angle. Indeed, if your crystal ball was in mint condition and you had predicted pre-race all of Oisin's front runners in all races (not just 2yo ones), you would have been rewarded with an SP profit of £312.85 (ROI +30.9%). To BSP returns were nearer 45p in the £.

Looking at his run style record on favourites we see the same pattern we have seen numerous time before:

 

 

Front running favourites do best as is the norm and they would have been profitable to the tune of 12p in the £. Prominent racers would have seen you lose 2p in £, mid div 'jollies' lost 24p for every £1 bet, while hold ups lost 19p.

 

Here are some additional stats for Murphy, starting with two negative ones:

  1. Murphy has a poor record with very short priced runners. On horses priced 8/13 or shorter he has had 61 wins from 112 (SR 54.5%) for losses to Industry SP of £28.10 (ROI –25.1%)
  1. With big-priced runners his record is poor also. Horses priced 28/1 or bigger accounted for just four winners and nine placed runners from 337. Losses to Industry SP stood at £206.00 (ROI –61.1%). To BSP it improves a little but he still lost over 42p in the £
  1. Murphy has achieved a strike rate of 20% or more at five courses (with a minimum of 100 rides) – these are Chelmsford 20.1%, Newcastle 21.5%, Nottingham 20%, Salisbury 21.1% and Wolverhampton 20.5%. Four of the five have yielded blind profits to BSP (Wolverhampton being the only track that has not)
  1. When teaming up with Hughie Morrison at Nottingham they are 6 wins from just 13 runners. They have also had two seconds at 14/1 and 12/1. When riding at Lingfield for Archie Watson, Murphy is 12 wins from 35 (SR 34.3%) for a BSP profit of £11.80 (ROI +33.7%)

I really like Murphy as a jockey and I especially look for horses he is riding that may take the lead early.

 

MAIN TAKEWAYS

Below is a summary of my key findings, firstly for William Buick:

  1. Buick has a good record riding for his boss Charlie Appleby, making a blind profit to BSP with a decent strike rate. He also has a good record when booked to ride for the Stoute stable
  2. He is outstanding from the front especially in races of ten furlongs or less.
  3. He has a very good record at Newmarket for all trainers, but especially with Appleby. At York his record is relatively poor.
  4. His record with 2yos is decent, with second starters doing particularly well.

Onto Jim Crowley now:

  1. Crowley has a strike rate of better than one win in four with four trainers (100 rides or more) – John & Thady Gosden, William Haggas, Roger Varian and Owen Burrows. Three of the four have yielded a profit to Industry SP
  2. He has an outstanding record when riding at Nottingham
  3. In small fields of five runners or less Crowley has been exceptional

And finally Oisin Murphy:

  1. Murphy has a good record with many trainers he rides regularly for.
  2. Harry & Roger Charlton, Mick Appleby, John & Thady Gosden, and John Butler are trainers he rides less often for but his record with all four is excellent.
  3. He goes well on 2yo runners.
  4. He is excellent when riding from the front.
  5. He has a relatively poor record with very short priced runners (8/13 or shorter); likewise with outsiders priced 28/1 or bigger.
  6. Two trainer/jockey course combinations to note are Murphy and Morrison at Nottingham, and Murphy and Watson at Lingfield.

*

So I have come to the end of this series on jockeys. Of course, I have barely scratched the surface as there are hundreds of riders I have not analysed at all. Most punters have favourite jockeys or indeed ‘lucky’ ones, but digging into the stats is a worthwhile use of all of our time. Building up a picture of strengths and weaknesses is important, and with Geegeez’s tools - especially the Profiler and Query Tool - it is not difficult to do or time consuming. In fact, it's fun!

Other jockeys you may want to look at in your own time include James Doyle, Andrea Atzeni, Jack Mitchell, Kevin Stott and Adam Kirby; or indeed whoever interests you. If you find anything noteworthy, feel free to comment below as it will help the Geegeez community. Until next time, when I'll be looking at something different, stay lucky.

- DR

Monday Musings: Charlie the Champ

After the past two weeks of sales and racing at Newmarket, no wonder Charlie Appleby looked frazzled just after 4.15 p.m. on Saturday as he sat down for a welcome cup of tea, directly opposite my vantage point in a box in the grandstand at Ascot, writes Charlie Appleby.

I said, “You are champion trainer again!”, and the look of brief bewilderment on his face showed that until that point the significance of the outcome of the Qipco Champion Stakes clearly hadn’t properly sunk in.

“Really?”, he asked. I outlined how the £248,000 his Modern Games had earned for second in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes had significantly stretched his lead over close second but overwhelming title favourite, William Haggas. Bayside Boy, a 33-1 shot trained by Roger Varian had got the better of the Godolphin horse while Haggas watched on helpless as he did not have a representative in Europe’s mile championship.

That meant it was all down to the horse of a generation – or so we thought he was.

We had all dutifully turned up at Ascot expecting a coronation. The Queen Consort was there, but it was Baaeed who was supposed to be crowned King of the Turf after what was to be his 11th win from 11 career starts.

So little were his eight rivals considered as serious opposition that he was sent off the 4-1 on favourite. To appreciate the depth of that market confidence, he was entering Frankel territory. His admirers had already attached to him near-Frankel mystique, or even hysteria.

Frankel had been only a marginally shorter price when completing the last of his 14 unbeaten career wins in the same race ten years earlier. He was 11-2 on against five rivals, best of whom were the veteran French gelding Cirrus Des Aigles and his contemporary and old rival, Nathaniel. He beat them readily enough, but it was a performance far less in keeping with his nine prior, mostly spectacular, Group 1 victories.

The question had to be would Baaeed stroll through this final task before following his predecessor to stud? The previous weeks had shown Frankel as the most potent living stallion, comfortably heading for a sire championship with the victory of his daughter Alpinista in the Arc a performance fresh in the memory.

He had also completely dominated the recent Tattersall’s October Yearling Book 1 auction with a string of big-money sales up to the top price of 2.8 million guineas. Nobody in their right mind would believe they could send a mare to him next breeding season for the 2022 fee of £200,000. He’ll be in the Galileo league, probably at least double that figure, neatly spanning the generations from his recently deceased sire and having grown to full maturity and power in the breeding shed.

Her Majesty did the honours in the QE II, presenting Richard Ryan, racing manager of Teme Valley Racing, the prize for Bayside Boy’s unexpected win. Teme Valley were also in action in the Caulfield Cup in Sydney earlier in the day where their Numerian was a close fifth beaten barely a length.

A one-time Joseph O’Brien-trained gelding, Numerian was bred by Joseph’s mother, Anne-Marie O’Brien, and he will no doubt have more paydays in Australia. Last October, State Of Play, trained by Joseph, won the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley in the Teme Valley silks.

Ian Williams, who has had a fruitful connection with Richard Ryan, expressed surprise that his friend had not been able to be in both places at once. “He’ll work it out for next year, no doubt”, said Williams.

The QE II was a tasty if unpredictable aperitif to the main course. Ranged against the Haggas star was the 2021 Derby winner, Adayar, at 6-1, who was fifth in last year’s Champion after a fourth in the Arc, and now back with a bang fresh after that long absence with a smooth win in conditions class at Doncaster. Appleby vowed after that he wanted to take on Baaeed at Ascot. Then there was Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge, a 10-1 shot and Group-race winner earlier in the year at Sandown but held in his forays into top class since.

Add the Irish pair, Stone Age from Aidan O’Brien and 2021 Classic winner Mac Swiney from the Jim Bolger yard and you have a far from negligible task for the favourite. Baaeed’s form leading up to Ascot had been blemish-free, but whereas Frankel had spaced his 14 races over three racing seasons, the later-developing Baaeed raced only from May last year.

Haggas himself had two back-ups, My Prospero, who despite three wins in four this year and a close third, a neck behind Appleby’s ill-fated Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot, was a 22/1 shot. His third runner, Dubai Honour, had less obvious claims, starting 33-1.

If before racing the fear was that the ground would be a potential worry for many horses on the day, the times were very much in line with Chris Stickels’ good to soft, soft in places, assessment. Any attempt to assign Baaeed’s rather stale fourth place behind Bay Bridge, Adayar and stablemate My Prospero to the going therefore makes less sense than simply the cumulative effects of a long, tough season racing at the top level.

The money, expected to be sufficiently in Haggas’ favour via his three contenders, panned out thus. Bay Bridge got £737k for winning, Adayar £279k for second. All three Haggas runners picked up a cheque, but My Prospero’s £139k, Baaeed’s £69k and Dubai Honour’s £17,000 for sixth left them 53 grand short in that single race alone.

Baaed will now retire to stud at a time when Shadwell Farm is starting to resume activity in a buying mode at the sales after the initial selling-off of many hundreds of racing and breeding stock following Hamdan Al-Maktoum’s death. His daughter, Sheikha Hissa, has been a noted presence over here recently and it would have been a fitting send-off for her much-admired father if Baaeed had emulated the feat of Frankel and remained unbeaten.

Racing at the top level is very attritional. The old champ Stradivarius has gone off to stud and his Goodwood Cup conqueror Kyprios bypassed the Champion Long Distance Cup but Trueshan duly turned up and completed a unique hat-trick in the race for Alan King, the Trueshan Owners Group and Hollie Doyle.

The team had been almost inconsolable after the star gelding, in Alan King’s opinion still remembering his ordeal by fast ground and Kyprios at Goodwood, swerved away his chance late on in the Doncaster Cup, going under by a neck to Coltrane. That day, with the trains back to London all screwed by first world problems, I gave a lift to their best-known member, Andrew Gemmell, and his mate Tony Hunt, and all the way back to town Andrew was as despondent as I’ve known him.

The mood was rather different in the winner’s enclosure after Hollie conjured a thrilling rally from her tough, determined ally to avenge that defeat after Coltrane had looked likely to maintain the edge. This time the verdict was a head in the other direction. Two very brave stayers, but Alan King has done wonders to bring his horse back after that chastening experience on the Sussex Downs.

Anyway, to return to the point of the matter. At close of play on Saturday, Appleby had earnings of £5,959,450, a lead of £364,000 give or take a few quid, over Haggas’ £5,595,524. While the title runs to December 31, incongruously with the Jockeys’ title race already done on Saturday, nothing can change its destination.

One major UK flat race remains, next weekend’s Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. Charlie doesn’t think he’ll run anything there, while William doesn’t have an entry, so the £118k will likely go to Coolmore and Ballydoyle who always target the race with a 2,000 Guineas contender. They have plenty of possibles, but their stranglehold could change if Chaldean takes them on. The Dewhurst hero would be the one to beat if Andrew Balding goes for a race in which he has done very well.

In 2021 William Buick battled to the last day of the season before finding Oisin Murphy holding too many aces. This year, with his rival out of the way, it was a cakewalk. Oisin’s return in 2023 will be eagerly awaited. A revived Murphy, three times champion already, would make it a thrilling competition, but if that does not materialise, the prospect is that ever-improving Buick could be in for a long period of supremacy given the power of the Appleby team.

The quality of the trainers at the top of the racing industry in the UK is outstanding. Add Roger Varian to the first two this year and you have three upwardly-mobile Newmarket-based handlers who I’m sure could have succeeded in any other field, as of course could their Berkshire counterpart, Balding. The fact that they have such powerful teams suggests the quartet will be at the forefront of their profession for years to come.

- TS

Monday Musings: Almost, but not quite, done

By this time next week it will all just about be done, writes Tony Stafford. The 2022 flat limps on for another three weeks after Saturday’s Champions Day at Ascot, but William Buick will have collected his first Champion Jockey trophy and Baaeed will probably have brought his career-ending tally to 11 from 11 – three behind Frankel – and be ready for a glittering career as a stallion.

If we thought the deaths in recent times of Prince Khalid Abdullah, Frankel’s owner-breeder, or Hamdan Al-Maktoum, who never lived to see his best-ever horse race, would mean a curtailment of two of the three giant Arab racing and breeding teams, evidence last week in Newmarket, both on the track and at the yearling sales, would have confounded that view.

Much was made of the first sales purchase by Hamdan’s daughter, Sheikha Hissa, of an expensive yearling; and then on Saturday, Chaldean, bought as a yearling by Prince Khalid’s successors for 550,000gns from Whitsbury Manor, won the Dewhurst Stakes. That made it four wins in five career starts and enough to stake his claim as champion juvenile of the year.

As Ryan Moore prepared to ride Coolmore’s Aesop’s Fables in that race he made little secret of the fact he expected the other Juddmonte contender, the home-bred Nostrum, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, to prevail.

Ryan would have been surprised had he been in the stands rather than on the back of the Aidan O’Brien runner on his way to the start to see the lack of confidence in Nostrum in the face of sustained support for Chaldean. The Andrew Balding horse was ridden by 51-year-old Frankie Dettori, able to take advantage of the Group 1 meeting exemption from on-going riding bans.

The Italian had been on board when Chaldean won the Group 2 Champagne at Doncaster in emphatic fashion last time out and he must have been worrying that he might not be fit to take the ride when he made an unscheduled flying dismount three furlongs from home in the opening Zetland Stakes: his Gosden-trained ride, Liftoff, clipped heels and fell. Rarely has there been a more appropriately named casualty.

Frankie said as he was still hot after his exertions in the big race he felt all right, but that those half-century old bones might be suffering a bit the following morning. Reprieved as he was, once he drove Chaldean to the front after a furlong, he was never going to let go, quickly seeing off Nostrum and Richard Kingscote before the last furlong. Here, Royal Scotsman proved a more resolute challenger, and the winning margin over the Jim Crowley-partnered and Paul and Oliver Cole trainee was just a head.

While the three days of Tattersalls Book 1 were never dull, it was still very much a private party between Godolphin and Coolmore, only relaxed to let in the next level of buyers when they condescended to leave the stage to the rest.

Suffice to say that the near 400 yearlings that found new owners over the piece, did so at an average of almost 300,000gns with plenty exceeding a million quid and one at £2.8 million. The total aggregate was £125 million. Tatts can count themselves satisfied at their commission on that first part; look forward to a less dramatic but also far from negligible Book 2, today to Wednesday, leaving Books 3 and 4 to mere mortals in the second half of the week.

Of course, then we have the December Sale, featuring top-class racing and breeding fillies and mares at the end of next month and into the first days of December. One of the busier young men at the sale last week was Ollie Sangster, son of Ben and Lucy and grandson of the late Robert.

He was seeking out potential owners and yearlings to join in his new venture training from one of the smaller yards at the spectacular Manton Estate, previously owned by his grandfather and, on his death, his sons. Now the property of Martyn Meade, who trains there in conjunction with his son Freddie at one end of the farm, while Brian Meehan continues having been on site for two decades, Ollie will have use of those wonderful downland gallops. As the backdrop to his entire life so far, no wonder he is excited at the prospect.

Ollie has done all sorts of jobs in the racing and breeding business considering his relative youth, but the last three years have brought plenty of excitement as he owns a minor share in the top-class filly Saffron Beach.

He shares the Jane Chapple-Hyam-trained four-year-old with his mother and James Wigan. It’s a real family affair as Jane is his step-aunt. Congratulating him on managing to get a piece of such a smart filly, he said, “I was in her from the start.”

The records show Saffron Beach changed hands as a foal for 55,000gns and since then she has won six of her 13 starts, two at Group 1 level and total earnings of £805,000. A daughter of the exciting young sire New Bay, she has been a late addition to the December sale and I reckon she is guaranteed to be one of the most desired lots on offer, almost certainly well into seven figures.

Ollie’s father Ben has, over the past few years, re-centred his Swettenham Stud breeding interests close to Manton House which remains his family home. He hopes that if Ollie’s training project takes off, he might have to find a new base for the mares and young stock.

A final note on the Newmarket Future Champions meeting which, apart from high-class two-year-old races, also included a cash-depleted Cesarewitch. Club Godolphin stepped in as sponsors otherwise what would it have been worth? As it was, £103,000 to the winner for such a major race was a disgrace, considering that was only one-third the amount the winner received four years previously.

There was yet another Irish winner, but this time not for Willie Mullins who had switched his better stayers to the Irish Cesarewitch the weekend before. Handicap ace and recently banned and reinstated Charles Byrnes was successful with the 147-rated hurdler Run For Oscar, who strolled home under David Egan more than three lengths to the good from the Hughie Morrison pair of Vino Victrix and star hurdler Not So Sleepy, who was adding a third place to two fourths in 2019 and 2020.

They provided a joint 72 grand to the Morrison owners. Second and third in 2018 would have brought 138k, almost twice as much. Only 21 horses, rather than a ballot-requiring 32, bothered to turn up, while the reinvigorated Irish Cesarewitch, worth seven times as much as last year, carried a similar payout to the winner as ours had been in 2018. Willie Mullins didn’t win it, that race going to Aidan and the three-year-old Waterville, who got up late to beat the Mullins pair Echoes in Rain and Lot Of Joy.

With the wonderful Kyprios apparently done for now, and Stradivarius finished – don’t worry Bjorn Neilsen isn’t looking for food banks yet, he sold a Frankel yearling last week for 2 million gns – Trueshan is left as the top candidate for the British Champions Long Distance Cup. At least, that was, until Aidan decided against running pre-race favourite Waterville at Newmarket and now has Ascot in mind for the improving young stayer.

While the jockeys’ title race finishes at Ascot, the trainers’ championship continues to the end of the year. But, the Vertem Futurity the following weekend at Doncaster apart, all the action for the big stables will be overseas.

Charlie Appleby’s remarkable winning spree in recent weeks has got him back a few quid in front of William Haggas. We can expect Baaeed to pick up the £737k for the Champion Stakes but if last year’s Derby winner can follow him home and Modern Games can pick up the £623k in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – Inspriral will be tough of course – it might not be quite all over. It probably is though, in all consciousness!

- TS

Monday Musings: A Dusky Beauty

Some weeks, I worry right until the moment when I finally open the keyboard, wondering what to put into these rambling epistles, writes Tony Stafford. Often, it’s a lottery, with random episodes of equal, often minimal, importance to weigh. Other times, like this weekend, I’m spoilt for choice.

Monday Musings is not an organ of record, unlike my long-term employer, the Daily Telegraph, its great rival the Times, or another of my early parking places, the Press Association. Even before then, on a local paper it was instilled in me to chisel out the “who, what, when, where, why, how and to whom” coda for story compiling half a dozen years before the start of my DT days half a century ago.

Among the formula’s most exacting adherents of PA vintage was David Thomas, son of the Sporting Life’s celebrated Chief Racing Reporter, Len, who had been for decades and still was a doyen of the 'paper. If his issue was a doyen of anything, it was repetition, as upon confronting a winning trainer after a race, he would ask, bright bowtie to the fore, “how many do you have in this year?”, “where does the owner come from?” and, more acceptably, “where will he go next?”

In fairness, the domicile of the owner was important, too, as local papers needed those lines from the exciting world of horse racing and sport to flesh out their parochial coverage of robberies, brawls outside public houses and the misdemeanours of local politicians. How I loved Police Calls at Leyton nick in metropolitan Essex in my first newspaper job on the Walthamstow Guardian! Up to a point! I presented “Tommy” with a 1972 copy of Horses In Training one day and dared him to ask another trainer his worn-out trilogy. He defied me, but not until the next day!

There are more than enough “proper” stories elsewhere in this comprehensive, authoritative electronic publication to keep everyone on point, and to allow me an old man’s self-indulgence. In reverse order, in best Miss World mode – if we’re still locked in the 1970’s – the heroes are Hughie Morrison, Charlie Appleby and Roger Varian.

Hughie has been around the longest of the three and equally I’ve known him the longest too. A shade chippier than the others, he finds plenty not to admire about the administration of the sport, and trains at his own pace. He takes any injury the horses sustain as if it were to himself and opportunities for his horses are minutely sought out. On Saturday, his scouring of the Pattern programmes led to two of his progressive fillies collecting Group 3 races, at home at Newbury and in France at Chantilly. The latter foray Hughie declared necessary as he reckoned there was such limited domestic opportunity for the cross-Channel traveller. “Just one other suitable race before Christmas,” he said.

She was Mrs Fitzherbert, a Kingman filly owned by Sonya and Anthony Rogers. Her emphatic success at Chantilly earned €40k for the win and a decent multiple of that in inherent paddock value for her legendary owner-breeders.

The Arbibs, father and son, were the happy beneficiaries of the earlier winner, Stay Alert, as her jockey David Egan needed to, for she was apparently securely trapped on the rail inside the last furlong. But after belatedly worming a small gap, his mount got him out of trouble with instant acceleration to be ahead and back hard held before the line.

Before this challenge against the boys, which brought not just a similar prize but also the promise of much more to come, Stay Alert had been in line for the big fillies’ race on Champions Day next month, and the way she accelerated will make her a threat to even the top fillies at Ascot. “Had she not,” Hughie reminded me beforehand, “given Nashwa a real battle at Newbury earlier in the summer?”

Egan, with confidence emanating from last weekend’s St Leger win on Eldar Eldarov, rather than shrink after the sacking following Mishriff’s too-late finish into second behind Vadeni in the Eclipse, was riding the second of four consecutive winners on the day, more of which later.

I wouldn’t say replacing him has been a conspicuous success – the Eclipse was by far Mishriff’s best run of an unproductive year! The many millions he won for owner and trainer back in Saudi Arabia early last year obviously counted for nought in the face of that one slight misjudgement on a track where any jockey – the best down -  can get into trouble even in a three-horse race.

Egan had his day in the sun while William Buick was off travelling to North America for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. The champion-elect had two mounts at Woodbine in Canada, while as Buick can only sit on one horse and be in one place at a time, former Godolphin habitué, a certain L Dettori, had the gig at Belmont at the Big A – presumably Aqueduct was needed to fulfil some of its near-neighbour’s dates. [It was/is, as Belmont is under reconstruction - Ed.]

The three horses, Nations Pride at the Big A, and the juvenile Mysterious Night and French 2,000 Guineas winner Modern Games in Toronto, all bolted up. They showed, as if we didn’t know already, that North American turf horses are a pretty crummy bunch, relatively speaking at least. Each of the trio won by at least five lengths – cumulatively just over 17 – and picked up a combined $1,450,000 - £920,000 according to the Racing Post. However, with the pound at a long-time low against the dollar, it currently converts at a shade more than £1,250,000, and so made it a very worthwhile trip indeed for all concerned.

Buick will not have been even a trice concerned at Egan’s clean-up job, which also encompassed an impressive Mill Reef Stakes victory for Sakheer, who looked one of the fastest juveniles so far seen out. By common consent that put a classy gloss on an astounding day for his trainer Roger Varian.

With a second St Leger in the bag, Varian has been flying up the trainer charts in recent weeks, but even he would not have anticipated a seven-timer on a single day. The wins came nicely spread around the nation with three each at Newbury and at Ayr’s Western meeting and one at Newmarket. Had Cobalt Blue not been caught on the run-in at Wolverhampton it would have been an eight-timer!

I know I’m putting it at the bottom, but my race of the day, and one of amiable Roger’s septet, was Dusky Lord. This was his eighth run of the season and second win. I’d travelled a total of 1,800 miles to see each of the previous seven, in representing Jonathan Barnett, the football agent, one of those in the Partnership in whose colours he runs.

Six days earlier he had raced from the worst stall of all in the Portland at Doncaster, frustratingly as it was a target I’d suggested for him all year, and he was never able to overcome the disadvantage. David Egan, who won on him at Newmarket in the spring and finished a close second on the four-year-old at Glorious Goodwood, was adamant. “He ran well.”

Armed with that intelligence, Varian declared him for Ayr, happy he had not had too hard a race thanks to Egan’s sensible ride. While he missed by only a few horses and a couple of pounds to make the Big Show, he slid in almost at the top of the Silver Cup, albeit with a massive weight – 9st 11lb.

So, in front of the TV, I was happy to see Jack Mitchell, who had won on Dusky Lord at Newcastle last year, get him away well in the middle group. From then on it was 70 seconds of regret that I’d not taken another road trip – this time 975 miles, there and back.

From here let me leave you in the hands of Timeform. They reported: "Dusky Lord turned out again quickly, having been drawn out of things in the Portland, proved a revelation back in headgear <cheek-pieces>, showing much improved form, rare to see a handicap of this nature won with such complete authority; midfield, tanked along, quickened to lead over 2f out, drew clear, impressive; it’s hard to see even a big rise in the weights being enough to stop him being of interest again."

The Silver Cup has been an adjunct of the Gold Cup for at least a decade. I checked the last eight and each time the Gold Cup, as one would expect, has been run in the quicker time, always between 0.2 sec and 0.8 sec faster. Saturday’s big race went to now 15-time winner Summerghand, trained by David O’Meara. His time was 0.93 sec slower than Dusky Lord’s.

The Racing Post, to my mind, often does a fair bit of massaging of their speed figures. Summerghand’s figure was 72, compared with Dusky Lord’s 95, which represents a second and a half or seven and a half lengths' difference. Yet to arrive at such a low mark on what is clearly Summerghand’s best run of the year, they felt obliged to give him his smallest time performance of the season after 79, 75, 88, 76 and 85.

They clearly felt they had to minimise the figure for Dusky Lord as it would have been in the stratosphere. After the way he won, without being slightly challenged by his 24 rivals, the margin of the win and the fast time, Timeform have raised his mark from the high 90’s to 109. Phil Bull, Timeform’s founder whose whole ethos was based on the accurate interpretation of times, will be turning in his grave!

I think the partners have a Group horse of the future. What a day for Roger Varian, David Egan, Charlie Appleby, William Buick and Hughie Morrison! Not too shabby for Dusky Lord and his owners either!

- TS

Monday Musings: On Buick’s Title Charge

The last time I saw Tony Hind, the super jockey agent who shares his time between being a Tottenham Hotspur fanatic and grooming jockeys into becoming champions, three weeks ago at Newmarket, he wasn’t taking anything for granted, writes Tony Stafford. “No, we’ll be going full on until it’s mathematically impossible for William to be beaten.”

Three weeks later, maybe even Bony Tony will believe the race is won. Buick, after a remarkable eight wins from 12 rides on Saturday and yesterday at Goodwood, has a lead of 42 over nearest rival Hollie Doyle – 118 to 73 and with a prizemoney haul of almost double at £3,966,000 to £2,065,000.

Ben Curtis with 70 is the leader in the north. Doyle’s husband, Tom Marquand, is next, his 68 wins bringing in £2,465,000, a fair distribution of earnings between the couple. “I’ll let you be the principal bread-winner,” says Hollie, “as long as I ride more winners and get the bulk of the press and media coverage.” Something like that anyway – they seem to be in a blissfully happy state all the time, however, so I doubt those issues concern them.

It might surprise many that fifth place in the table belongs to another Northern-based jockey but one without a vestige of a northern accent, unlike his pal, Keith Walton, who is Leeds through and through. A former pro boxer who now trains a stable of fighters, Keith also finds time to run his own electrical business while being a regular on northern racecourses and boxing coach to several jockeys. Mulrennan is on 67 wins, but those and the other 316 mounts he has benefited with his undoubted skills have generated only £708,000, a measure if ever it were needed that shames the prizes generally on offer at most minor meetings away from the big tracks.

It's just as well that Paul’s wife Adele has so quickly become a valued member of the ITV Racing team’s coverage, having been head-hunted after her excellent work as a racecourse rep for the BHA in the north. Like the Marquands – or is it the Doyles? – two incomes will be handy as the price of energy spirals out of control from October and beyond.

Hind’s concern about the mathematical possibilities may have smacked of belt, braces and even bicycle clips, but were understandable. I contend though that the actual moment when William Buick won the 2022 Jockeys’ Championship, a contest which runs for less than half the calendar year – in 2022, April 30 to October 15 – arrived on February 22, a full two months before hostilities were to resume after Buick’s near miss as Oisin Murphy only narrowly saw off his rival in a last-day thriller on Champions Day at Ascot last October.

Oisin Murphy, do you remember him? Three times in a row he was the champion who had managed to stave off the implications of the tortured existence that only was to become fully evident after that exhaustive enquiry by his bosses last winter.

In the way of such matters, until last night I had never closely read the line-by-line conclusion of the case presented by the BHA which itemised the various breaches of the jockeys’ code and the misdemeanours which the BHA chose to layer on to the hapless miscreant.

In brief, Oisin was given a year’s ban until February 2023 for having been found to have, in order, breached Covid Rules, misled the BHA, indulged in prejudicial conduct, and incurred two alcohol breaches. The charge of “prejudicial conduct” covered the conclusion that he had acted in a manner that was prejudicial to the proper integrity, conduct and good reputation of the sport.

Note the order of the charges. Two breaches of the Covid rules, pretty much in line with what was considered one of the most heinous forms of law-breaking in the UK at the time, understandably took the headlines.

Murphy, as champion jockey, enjoyed considerable earning possibilities away from the UK, notably in Japan where he was a regular and most welcome visitor, enjoying rides on fancied horses in many of the well-endowed races there. At the 2021 Breeders’ Cup he was clearly very happy when the Japanese horse Loves Only You won the Filly and Mare Turf race, as he could be seen smiling away in the background when she returned to the winner’s circle.

That was the case, too, when he rode the 50/1 Japanese-trained winner of the Distaff race that same day in California, Marche Lorraine’s success bringing a £759k prize to connections. Oisin will have collected - if in line with UK percentages- maybe £50k from that.

The Covid breach involved a holiday in Greece, at the time in the Red Zone, while instead he said he was holidaying in Lake Como, a less offensive part of the world in those dark days. That was the “misleading the BHA” part of his ‘crimes’. Three months after his ban, Murphy might have smiled inwardly upon learning of the £50 fixed penalties meted out to Boris and Carrie Johnson and Rishi Sunak when they were found guilty of being present at Downing Street parties which also breached those same Covid Rules.

True in the end, that sequence where in all 100 fines were meted out to various drinks party goers, resulted in the Prime Minister’s eventual fall. Oisin was probably fined effectively at least one thousand times as much in terms of potential earnings over the year as the PM’s rebuke. By putting all his bad eggs in one basket the BHA has probably given him his best chance of retrieving his reputation and self-esteem.

During his sabbatical, he did go on at least one of the racing-themed mercy horsebox convoys to Ukraine, organised by Charlie Mann earlier in the year, but he has pretty much kept a low profile. Everyone who admired his riding will hope he has been able finally to end the alcohol dependence that was an all-embracing companion.

The riders of yesteryear had many formidable drinkers in their ranks – ask Henrietta Knight about the early version of Terry Biddlecombe before he became a reformed man as her husband in his later years. In the post-war days the top jockeys would be regulars in the night clubs in the West End of London, feted by owners, gamblers and bookmakers before going to the saunas at the public baths early in the morning to dry out.

They would still report for action at the track the next afternoon, showing little sign of their lifestyle, easier in those days as there was no fear of being tested.

Hopefully Murphy will be starting with a clean slate, but he may find he is returning to a sport where, largely through outside influences, it has become more difficult for him to attain a similar level. Much debate lately has been about the paucity of horses of a sufficient ability level to match the number of races framed in the higher echelons.

Small fields have been a constant for the last few weeks but that has been as much a function of the impossibly dry weather of the summer. What has been clear is that some of the top stables seem to be able to provide runners in pretty much all the valuable races around the country, leading to the domination by those jockeys connected to them.

William Buick’s rise, apart from his talent, has needed him to be associated with a top team and it has taken 16 years to graduate to the number one spot. By the time he rode his first ten winners in 2006, Kieren Fallon and Frankie Dettori had already finished their years as champion. In that year, Ryan Moore collected his first title, after which Seb Sanders and Jamie Spencer, a previous winner, shared one. Paul Hanagan, Richard Hughes, Silvestre De Sousa, Jim Crowley and Murphy all had their turns in the intervening period.

Buick achieved it with the constant support of his father Walter, a Scots-born jockey based originally in Newmarket who migrated to Scandinavia where he was a multiple champion jockey and later a trainer in Germany. William was born in Norway but frequently came over to England for the summer holidays and I remember his father bringing him and sometimes his brothers to the press room at Newbury in his early teens. When he took his first rides, aged 16, he weighed five stone wet through.

Those early trips involved spending time at Kingsclere riding out on the gallops, developed by Mill Reef’s trainer Ian Balding and further improved by Andrew, Ian’s son, to whom the young Buick was apprenticed. Over the years he has expanded his client base to the extent that only one of the Goodwood winners was trained by his principal employer, Charlie Appleby. Three were for his original boss Balding, with one each for Eve Johnson Houghton, Roger Varian, Simon and Ed Crisford and George Boughey, powerful allies all.

His annual haul of 140 wins – so 22 gained before the Saturday of the Guineas meeting, the official start of the championship – is a fair tally considering he spent most of the winter and early spring in Dubai, and has been shared between 33 different trainers. The best of all worlds.

With the power of Godolphin and the skill and support of Charlie Appleby to fall back on, Buick looks set for a good spell at the top with this most emphatic of titles behind him. Maybe Oisin Murphy will have something to say about that? Maybe Hollie can continue her progress and possibly have a major thrust for a first female title? The future though seems all about William Buick. Then again, after our experiences in the UK in particular and the greater world in general in 2022, what can we ever take for granted?

- TS

Monday Musings: Williams truly a man for all seasons

The Dubai Carnival 2022 has crept up on me, but I had a quiet day at home on Friday and had a good look as William Buick and Charlie Appleby dominated their home meeting with a hat-trick in the last three of six at Meydan, writes Tony Stafford. They cleaned up with Lazuli, 8-11 in a Group 2 sprint; Manobo, 4-9 in a Group 3 over 14 furlongs; and a “handicap” where Valiant Prince bolted home at 13-8 with stones seemingly to spare in completing the set.

The Racing UK coverage for Dubai has never been over-critical of the hosts but the way Angus McNee and Rishi Persad over-gushed after Manobo’s undoubtedly impressive performance in the 89k to the winner Nad Al Sheba Trophy, at the exclusion of all others in the 15-horse field, was an exercise in stating the obvious.

Here was a horse unbeaten in four runs in Europe, starting when a 5-1 scorer under Adam Kirby at Newbury in May – from Mojo Star whose next outing was when runner-up to Charlie’s Adayar in the Derby. He followed up the next month with Buick in the saddle, emphatically by six lengths at 4-11 at Kempton.

Charlie then gave him a break before moving him up in grade, collecting a Listed race at Saint-Cloud at 7-10 by ten lengths with James Doyle riding in September. Doyle again had the mount, and 7-10 was also the price when he out-pointed fellow Appleby three-year-old Kemari, the Queen’s Vase winner from Royal Ascot, in the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay at Longchamp’s Arc meeting.

Over-qualified to a degree then for a ballast-filled race nominally a notch lower, actually rather more so. Thus it was hardly unexpected when he drew away easily to make it five from five given his rating of 114. The winning margin was almost six lengths. A second Godolphin runner, Global Heat ridden by Frankie Dettori for Saeed Bin Suroor, was third. He was just bettered for second favouritism by the regular Group performer Rodrigo Diaz, trained by David Simcock, who finished a modest sixth.

Totally unnoticed, or if he was, never mentioned in all the time I waited for it, were the identities of the other money-earners.  Even after they came back from the domestic action for the next Meydan race, Rishi was revealing: “We’ve been talking about Manobo the whole time!” I’ve no doubt they were.

Anyway I’d like to keep you in suspense for a little while longer. On the day of Manobo’s Newbury debut, a six-year-old gelding fresh from the UAE where he had been trained for all of his 14 career starts, none successful, lined up in one of the handicaps at Newbury with an opening UK rating of 70.

I remember looking on the morning of the race thinking that was stern enough especially when taking it in the context of a £6k (30k AED) sale price out of Doug Watson’s stable more than two years earlier.

The horse was called East Asia, the new trainer Ian Williams and his owner Sayed Hashish, a businessman in Dubai, wanted to give him a chance in the UK. Partnered by Richard Kingscote, the 16-1 chance shot clear two from home in the mile-and-a-half mile handicap and won by almost five lengths.

Stepped up in trip for his next two races at Goodwood, Williams turned to William Buick and, riding him with great confidence, he won twice more, comfortably each time as his turf rating rose.

Buick was not employed in the immediate aftermath with the obvious difficulty of timing the races with his Godolphin commitments and East Asia had a relatively quiet spell. Then, coming to the last rites of the turf season, Buick became available for a race at Nottingham and normal service resumed. All that remained was a tilt at the November Handicap where Buick was otherwise engaged riding a double at the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar; so Kingscote stepped back in.

This time there was no happy ending: East Asia, held up a long way back, hated the cloying mud of Town Moor and finished just below halfway. That left him with a mark of 90 and anyone who has ever sent a horse out to the Carnival with a rating as low as that will know how difficult it can be to get into a race.

But Sayed Hashish is an optimistic chap and fuelled by the four wins from nine starts his UK trainer had supplied him from the previous non-winner in 14, he decided to take the risk. Balloted out in the early weeks, Williams found the answer with Friday’s Group 3, in which East Asia had the lowest rating of all.

He also gave the same entry to a second stable runner, Enemy, there on his second run since being bought in November in France for €92k out of the stable of Francis Graffard, the Aga Khan’s new principal trainer.  Enemy had been running over a mile and a furlong or less in France and started at that trip a week earlier. He finished unplaced, albeit barely five lengths behind Lord Glitters.

Williams told me he thought he would stay and that the much-increased trip would suit but he too was among the lowest-rated in the line-up. The pair, understandably both 66-1 shots, turned for home in the last trio with Enemy right at the back. They both took a rails course coming home and if East Asia had not been slightly blocking his stablemate at a crucial stage, according to Williams: “They might have finished the other way around.”

Anyway East Asia stayed on for second under Richard Mullen, greatly out-running his rating (24lb less than the winner) with Enemy and Andrea Atzeni an eye-catchingly closing fourth. In case you hadn’t noticed, Racing TV – and, don’t worry, I still prefer your coverage to ITV, except of course when they show Ascot or Doncaster on a Saturday – this was a monumental training performance.

Ian tells me he thinks East Asia, who collected almost 30k for those efforts might now be getting an invitation to the Gold Cup on Dubai World Cup Day. No wonder Mr Hashish is telling his friends what to do with their old handicappers. Meanwhile, Enemy’s new owners, Tracey Bell and Caroline Lyons, have the prospect of an exciting season ahead with their five-year-old.

It might seem much longer ago, but it was as recently as the autumn of 2017 that Williams encouraged Dr Marwan Koukash to buy the apparently fully-exposed Magic Circle from Ralph Beckett towards the end of his five-year-old season. Few trainers would expect to induce much improvement from that trainer’s skilled handling but, for 70,000gns, Williams had a project.

First up, six months later, it was the doctor’s Holy Grail, the Chester Cup, and with Fran Berry in the saddle Magic Circle ran out a six-length winner from Hughie Morrison’s Fun Mac. The Group 2 Henry II Stakes at Sandown came next and it was another six-length romp for the six-year-old, this time excellent yardstick Red Verdon took second for Ed Dunlop.

Immediately after (or probably knowing the connections, sometime before) the plan was hatched to go for the Melbourne Cup.

Nine years previously, a much cheaper buy, Munsef, led out unsold at £11k from Dandy Nicholls, was then bought privately as a seven-year-old on May 20th 2009 and, by late summer, within weeks he had won three and finished second twice including in a Swedish Group 3. That resulted in a Melbourne Cup qualifying mark and so, that November as a 50-1 chance, he carried the Koukash silks to a close up 11th of 23.

Contrastingly, for most of the summer of 2018, Magic Circle was the favourite for Australia’s most coveted race, but on the day at Flemington he started a point longer at 6-1 to Aidan O’Brien’s 5-1 market leader Yukatan.

The winner this time was the Appleby-trained Cross Counter, a top-class three-year-old who just held off Hughie ‘s Marmelo, now a stallion, and Charlie Fellowes’ Melbourne Cup regular – until last year – Prince Of Arran.  Magic Circle finished in the back third having faded over the last two furlongs, but the dream, as with East Asia for his owner, had been more than fulfilled.

As he returns to his yard near Birmingham, this trainer for all seasons and all types of horses, faces one of his biggest ever challenges. Tomorrow he sends out Glen Again for his hurdles debut at Market Rasen in Raymond Tooth’s colours. I’ll be there, so let’s give it a good show!

Williams had a good second with his promising novice chaser Tide Times at Wincanton on Saturday but the highlight for me was the great attempt of Kim Bailey’s 25-1 shot Two For Gold in the Betfair Ascot Chase. If Joseph O’Brien had forgotten to enter J P McManus’ Fakir d’Oudairies, Two For Gold would have won. Only one Irish runner all day and inevitably the best prize of the afternoon goes west!

Kim will have been more than delighted with second especially as the novice Does He Know had already spread-eagled the opposition in the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase. Pre-Irish domination, that was the race I always liked to see my three-mile Cheltenham novice chase fancies win, but nowadays pretty much all the contenders lurk over there.

Before you look round, Cheltenham will have come and gone, but one possible entry that I am looking forward to is Poetic Music who might tackle the big Irish boys in the bumper. We know she can fly up the hill so getting a hefty 17lb from the hot Mullins favourite and the rest, anything may be possible for the apple of Sally Randell’s eye!

- TS

Monday Musings: Classic Connections

The weekend in Ireland produced another extremely disappointing performance from an Aiden O’Brien Derby favourite, writes Tony Stafford. If anything, High Definition’s sluggish display in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby was in merit terms inferior even to Bolshoi Ballet’s comprehensive defeat at Epsom.

The discovery of a cut to a hind leg immediately after that race gave connections a straw to cling to with Bolshoi Ballet, while on Saturday a stumble through clipping heels after two furlongs apparently unbalanced High Definition with jockey Ryan Moore apparently never able to get him back on an even keel thereafter.

The common denominator in a period when Irish horses have otherwise been wiping the floor with their English-trained counterparts over jumps and on the Flat has been the two Derby wins for Godolphin on horses trained by Charlie Appleby.  Adam Kirby was the unexpected hero in the Cazoo Derby at Epsom but William Buick, only third that day on first string Hurricane Lane, was again in the saddle as that horse put things right at The Curragh.

From the time when his father Walter used to bring him over from Norway, where he was born, while Scots-born Buick senior was the eight times champion jockey in Scandinavia, William always had the mark of a future top jockey.

He used to come along to Newbury racecourse, a tiny lad, and visit the press room where his proud dad brought him and, later on, his two younger brothers, Martin and Andrew. Even years later when he started riding aged 16 as a 7lb claiming apprentice from Andrew Balding’s stable he weighed just about 5st wet through.

Walter took on the job of trying to get him started and initially it proved difficult. Then one day he rode his first winner for Paul D’Arcy, a friend of Walter’s from their riding days before Walter moved to Scandinavia.

That made little difference to the flow of rides and one day Walter asked me whether I could talk to any trainers. William had been enrolled in the Newmarket Jockey School and apparently had made something of an enemy of one of the coaches who found him rather too ready to express his opinions, a tendency that years later cost him a doubling of a suspension when he accused French stewards of being corrupt, a comment he later wisely withdrew.

At the time I was very friendly with Vince Smith and we’d recently arranged for a couple of Raymond Tooth horses to go to him, with excellent results. Vince is no longer a trainer and after surgery for gender transformation, is now known as Victoria Smith.

Vince gave the boy his chance and in the last two months of 2006 he rode the three-year-old handicapper Vacation six times to two wins, two seconds and two thirds, the impetus of which helped get him going. By the end of the year he had clocked up ten wins. Vince continued training for only two more seasons and William rode seven winners from 40 mounts for him with another 13 finishing second or third.

But what I believe was a big step in the making of William was when, as a result of a recommendation by Michael Tabor, William spent the early part of 2007 in the US in the Florida winter base of top US trainer Todd Pletcher. That, rather than run through his claim in egg-and-spoon races on the all-weather, Buick senior agreed, was a better idea and more beneficial for his future.

On that trip, with his dad as chaperone, he was taken under his wing by the great Angel Cordero in his daily track work and returned to the UK a better rider and a much more rounded young man.

While voted the Apprentice of the Year in the Derby awards in both 2017 and 2018 by UK journalists, Buick was actually beaten as champion apprentice the first year by Greg Fairley who had been supported with all the ammunition available from the country’s now winning-most trainer Mark Johnston. Sadly within four years of having maintained a similar level, Fairley found the struggle to deal with maintaining an unnatural weight beyond him.

In 2008 Buick did gain his coveted Champion Apprentice title, although he had to share it with another Andrew Balding rider, geegeez-sponsored David Probert. Within a couple of years he was head-hunted by John Gosden and for four years, during which time he won a first Irish Derby on Jack Hobbs, the pair had spectacular success together.

But the final step on his graduation into the top sphere was being recruited in 2014 by Godolphin with all the winter benefit of winning such races as the Dubai World Cup and its extravagant rewards. That has projected Buick into the same elite jockey grouping as Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore.

Moore has been the Coolmore number one throughout the same period, succeeding Joseph O’Brien, while Dettori, previously the long-term Godolphin number one, switched back to Gosden on Buick’s departure and duly extended his astonishing longevity with the UK’s top stable, most notably with his association with Enable.

William won the 2018 Derby for Godolphin on Masar and, while he could finish only third behind Adam Kirby, who rode lesser-fancied stablemate Adayar, on Hurricane Lane in the Blue Riband earlier this month, he remained loyal to his mount and was rewarded three weeks later with what was a second victory in the Irish Derby.

It required a top-class ride on Saturday as, going into the final furlong, Dettori, riding the Martin Meade-trained Lone Eagle, had poached a clear lead. With none of the home team looking up to making a challenge the two UK colts had the finish to themselves.

Between the Godolphin pair at Epsom was the Richard Hannon-trained and Amo Racing-owned Mojo Star, still a maiden but he was now strongly fancied to correct that status in this Classic. Unfortunately for connections, when Buick first launched his run down the outside of the field he instigated a touch of general bunching to his inside.

Mojo Star was the worst affected in the scrimmage so, while having no time to recover fully, he did well to finish fifth, just ahead of Irish 2,000 hero, Mac Swiney. Wordsworth, in third, was the best of the Ballydoyle runners but a full five lengths adrift of the first two.

So, with a Classic win, there was a little respite for the town of Newmarket, still shocked by the sudden resignation earlier that day of Matt Hancock from his post as Health Secretary and therefore the most constant face of the Government’s during the Covid-19 crisis of the past 15 months. Hancock is the Member of Parliament for the West Suffolk constituency which includes Newmarket.

The former minister was the subject of a leaked picture, probably taken from a phone camera, showing him snogging a woman that turned out to be his future live-in partner, an action contrary to Covid-19 regulations and a few other considerations too, I would imagine. The break-up of his marriage had been announced just before the departure.

I touch on this simply because he was, or rather is, a fan of horse racing and while the financial situation for owners remains as dire as it has been for many years because of the inadequate prize money levels, the sport certainly needs friends in high places. I don’t suppose he’ll be too much use from the back benches.

I digress. Whereas Adayar was a home-bred, Hurricane Lane, a son of Frankel, was bred by Philippa and Nicholas Cooper’s Normandie Stud in Sussex. I first met the Coopers in the spring of 1998 after Hitman, a decent horse I bought as a yearling and had in training with Henry Cecil along with Peter Mines and a few of his pals under the name of the Paper Boys, was beaten a neck by their horse I’m Proposin at Leicester.

We were all shocked, but Henry, despite Hitman’s having starting the 4-9 favourite after some exceptional homework, was not surprised. “A better horse still needs to be fit to win and Hitman needed the race. When it came to the crucial stage, I’m Proposin <an 8-1 shot that day and winner of his next two races for John Dunlop> was fit, so he won.” A lesson learned from the words of the master! Mainly jumping owners at the time, the Coopers graduated to the Flat before becoming highly-successful commercial breeders.

They reluctantly decided to sell their West Sussex farm in 2017 but continue breeding basing their mares at Coolmore and Newsells Park, the latter of which has changed hands in the past few weeks.  Gale Force, a daughter of Shirocco and, rarely for Philippa, not a home-bred, was sold in a partial dispersal of Normandie’s stock in December 2019 for 300,000gns. That was two months after her son, to be known as Hurricane Lane, went through the same Park Paddocks sale ring for 200,000gns.

Part of the reason for the Coopers’ sale was the tendency for all their retired racehorses to come back to the farm and then live to a great age. Now they are kept at Angmering Park, near Arundel, the home of the late Lady Anne Herries and former training base of William Knight, who moved to Newmarket early last year.

The Classic Year 2021 has thrown a few unexpected barbs at Coolmore with Santa Barbara’s defeats in the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks even though they still won both races. Mother Earth’s victory in the Newmarket race and more emphatically Snowfall’s record-breaking romp at Epsom obviously lessened the blow each time.

Yesterday Santa Barbara, with Aidan O’Brien splitting the difference in the ten-furlong Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes, feature race on the final day of the Derby meeting, went a long way towards restoring her reputation. Initially looking at best booked for third or fourth, she produced a flying finish between horses in the last half furlong under a left-hand drive by Moore and only narrowly failed to catch the more experienced four-year-old, Thundering Nights.

That filly, sent to Belmont Park for her previous run and an excellent second there in a mares’ Grade 2 for Joseph O’Brien, looked likely to win comfortably but Santa Barbara reduced the margin to a neck.

With four three-year-old fillies at Ballydoyle already Classic winners this year, the in-fighting for a place in the Nassau Stakes line-up will be intense but at least Santa Barbara must now be a contender. As Peeping Fawn showed back in 2007, there’s plenty of time to rebuild a reputation. She won four Group 1 races only starting at Goodwood that year.

- TS

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leader after 1f, ridden and unable to quicken 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner... 

Why?...

As is often the case, the racecard provides a way in for us...

From left to right, 2-3124 suggests a consistent type, CD shows a previous win over course and distance, trainer Ed Walker has a good 1 year and 5 year record at this venue (C1 C5), as does jockey William Buick (also C1 C5) and he's also been riding well of late (14 30), whilst the horse's Geegeez Speed Rating of 95 is the highest in this field today.

Mountain Peak has already won 7 of his 26 starts to date with a impressive 26.9%  strike rate yielding 19..5pts profit at an ROI of 75.2% if you'd backed every time he has run. Of those 26 starts, the following angles of interest are at play today...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 27.55pts (+153.1%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 29.55pts (+184.7%) within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 8.7pts (+45.8%) on a straight run
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%) over a 5f trip
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.48pts (+274%) here at Haydock, both over course and distance...

...whilst over a straight 5f at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of his last run, he is 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.7pts (+183.7% ROI), including 2 from 2 over C&D.

Jockey William Buick's good 30-day (27/111 = 24.3%) and 14-day (13/56 = 23.2%) are highlighted on the racecard, but over the last seven days, he is actually 10 from 29 (34.5% SR), so he's bang in form and also has a record of 11 wins from 46 (23.9% SR) for 2.53pts (+5.5% ROI) here at Haydock since the start of the 2017 season, although none of those rides were for today's trainer, Ed Walker...

...whose own record in handicaps here at Haydock over the same period stands at 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 55.9pts (+107.5% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 59.33pts (+138%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 59.08pts (+155.5%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 37.84pts (+126.1%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 19.74pts (+89.7%) with those rated (OR) 80-95
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.43pts (+130.4%) over this 5f C&D...

...whilst those racing in fields of 5-11 runners for less than £10k within 25 days of their last run are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 35.34pts (+168.3% SR) including one of today's pick's C&D successes back in July 2018...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.