Tag Archive for: Worcester racecourse

Racing Insights, Tuesday 22/08/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.00 Newton Abbot
  • 6.00 Worcester
  • 7.00 Worcester

Both Worcester races feature on The Shortlist above and I think I'll have a look at Peregrine Run in the 6.00 Worcester, a 12-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m7f on good ground...

Brief Times arrives here on a hat-trick and is thwe only LTO winner on the pack, although Courtland has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Featured horse Peregrine Run carries top weight here and he has two wins and a place from his last four whilst Hell Red, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans & The Vollan have all won once in five.

Only four (Peregrine Run, Ruthless Article, Hell Red & Eritage) of these raced at this grade last time out as Brief Times, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans, Organdi and The Vollan all step up a level from Class 3 and bottom weight Gats and Co is up two classes whilst Killer Clown and Courtland both ran at Class 1 a month ago in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen where the former was pulled up whilst the latter was the runner-up beaten by just three quarters of a length having conceded 13lbs to the winner who has since won again.

Peregrine Run won this race last year (but is now 9lbs higher) making him the only course and distance winner in the field, although Saint Arvans, The Vollan and Gats And Co have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst Courtland (2 x 2m4½f chases) and The Vollan (2m4f hurdle) have both won on this track.

We've no new headgear on show, no horses moving yard and all bar The Vollan have had a run in the last 16 to 35 days, but The Vollan hasn't been seen since being pulled up at Market Rasen on Boxing Day last year and can be excused if he needs the run.

In terms of previous chase outings under similar conditions, Instant Expert suggests that most will be well suited by the good ground...

...although Killer Clown, Ruthless Article and Organdi are a pretty poor 3 from 29 between on the going. As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Peregrine Run has the best figures under these conditions but it has to be said that apart from the odd decent run here and there, he's not the horse he was in 2018/19 when winning Listed & Grade 3 contests. Mind you, he is 13 now and time isn't his friend.

Killer Clown and Organdi's record over this kind of trip is as bad as their records on good ground and it's time to remove that pair from my calculations, even if the former has landed a couple of Class 2 chases.

If I think Peregrine Run's star is on the wane, but he has the best figures, it's probably worth looking at the place stats for the ten remaining runners to see who might emerge as a contender...

Again, Peregrine Run's numbers are excellent, but the one looking like the one to beat so far is Courtland. Aside from being unexposed in this grade, conditions look ideal for him and he's 3 from 5 under today's jockey, although he is a whopping 12lbs heavier than his last win and 6lbs heavier than his Class 1 near-miss last time out.

He tends to race prominently, but will probably have to tuck in behind expected pace-maker Gats And Co, if the field's last four outings are anything to go by...

...whilst The Vollan and Go On Chez seem destined to be held up for a late run, a tactic which hasn't really been that successful in past races here at Worcester...

Summary

The pace scores suggest that Gats And Co will lead in a race that suits leaders, but I feel he's going to be more a pace-maker/target for the runners just in behind him rather than being a serious contender himself.

He won four chases on the bounce (but is only 4 from 19 in his career) in Feb to June of 2022 taking his mark from 92 to 125 and hasn't looked remotely like winning any of eight races since and with him being some 9lbs wrong at the weights here, I predict a ninth successive loss.

That, of course, opens the door to those racing closest to him, of which the pick has to be Courtland. He comes here in terrific form and was only narrowly beaten at a higher grade last time out. His Instant Expert scores were good and he has a brilliant relationship with today's jockey. 4/1 isn't overly generous, but it's probably about right, so it's Courtland for me here.

Of the others, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 7/1 Hell Red and the 9/2 Brief Times go well, whilst others in with a shout of making the frame (bookies go 4 places) would include (alphabetically) Peregrine Run and Saint Arvans.

Go On Chez is the current 4/1 jt fav along with Courtland, but he was beaten by Brief Times last time out and both face tougher tasks here.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/07/23

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Apologies for the later than usual posting of the daily column, but I've been away all day on a training course and didn't get home until after 9pm!

But the show must go on and with that in mind, Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.35 Tipperary
  • 4.42 Musselburgh
  • 7.00 Bath
  • 7.35 Bath
  • 7.45 Tipperary

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated quite a few runners to consider...

...and with Ben Pauling's horses not only being in fine form of late, but also having a good course record over the past year, it seems right to look at his two runners above. Mole Court looks the standout runner in a mediocre Class 5 chase and is already priced accordingly (as low as 13/8), so let's focus on stablemate Gentleman Valley who goes an hour in a better looking looking contest. The 4.23 Worcester is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m7f on good ground, although a 141 yard rail movement takes it beyond 2m7½f (2m7.64f to be more precise!)...

Not only is our featured horse, Gentleman Valley the only LTO winner, he actually comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Warwick and Market Rasen in the last seven weeks or so, but he's now up a class, as are Go Chique, Mr Tambourine Man and bottom weight Court Master.

Go Chique was a runner-up LTO and has won two of her last four and Mr Tambourine Man is two from five, but Irish Prophecy, Polish and Nevilles Cross are winless in seven, ten and seven races respectively, inlcuding several incomplete runs.

Mr Tambourine Man races for the first time since wind surgery and Nevilles Cross wears a first-time visor, whilst the sole mare in the race, Go Chique hasn't raced in over seven months and might well need the run.

None of these have won here at Worcester before and although the card says five of them have won at a similar trip, Instant Expert says only three have won over hurdles at this kind of distance...

...and Gentleman Valley looks the best of a fairly poor set of numbers. Polish's 0 from 6 at the trip raises immediate questions, of course and further analysis shows that he has only made the frame in one of the six races...

In fairness, off a small sample size of races, most of these look like they'd be well suited/placed to make the frame, but you'd still have to say that Gentleman Valley was the one to beat so far on both recent form and overall form as above.

We've no draw to worry about of course, so let's move swiftly on to the pace data for similar past races and our Pace Analyser is fairly clear about what type of horse would go well here...

Prominent horses and leaders make the frame most often and half of those placers then go on to win, so ideally we'll be picking a horse in the upper reaches of the following pace profiles, based on the field's most recent outings...

Feature horse Gentleman Valley sits at mid-point and would be advised to run prominently like he did last out, but there could quite well be some early pace on and that might be too much for Go Chique after a lengthy lay-off.

Summary

Based on the above, it's the featured horse Gentleman Valley for me. He isn't quite as high on the pace chart as I'd like, but did win from a prominent position last time out. He's in great recent form and scored well on Instant Expert and his yard are in good nick and have done well here at Worcester over the last year. Fortunately me going to post around 5 or 6 hours later than usual hasn't affected the price, he opened at 5/2 and that's still available and also the price I think he should be.

As for next best, I'm not sure about the fav Polish at 9/4 from a hold-up position, so maybe Go Chique might hang on for a place.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 28/06/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.58 Worcester
  • 3.28 Worcester
  • 4.28 Worcester
  • 5.30 Naas
  • 7.00 Naas
  • 7.20 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

Both my TS qualifiers list and the selection of 'free' races are heavily Worcester-oriented, so we'll go there for the highest rated contest on the card, the 4.28 Worcester, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f on good ground...

Plenty of these have some good results in their more recent form line; Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge both won last time out, whilst Clear The Runway is 5 from 7, 6 from 9 and 7 from 11! Accidental Rebel is 4 from 6, Solo Saxophone is 2 from 5 and Finisk River has won four of his last six. Merry Berry is 4 from 5 and Jamacho is 3 from 5, 4 from 8 and 5 from 10. Conversely Luttrell Lad is winless in his last dozen outings and Celestial Horizon has lost his last eight, beating just nine runners across those races in which he failed complete four times!

Those two on the cold list are amongst just four runners (with Clear The Runway & Eritage) who ran at this grade last time out, as Solo Saxophone, Finisk River, Merry Berry and Jamacho all step up from Class 3, whilst our two LTO winners, Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge are up from Class 4 here. Accidental Rebel, however, drops down from a heavy defeat in a Group 2 race at Kelso back in March, although he did win in that grade two starts ago.

He hasn't raced for 116 days now and whilst he might well need the run, he hasn't been away as long as the likes of Finisk River, Eritage and Merry Berry, whose layoffs are 214, 312 and 382 days respectively. This quartet aside, the field have all raced in the last six weeks and this will be Everyonesgame's handicap debut after Class 4 wins in a maiden and a novice event in April & May of this year.

Luttrell Lad has already won here at Worcester in a 2m hurdle, Jamacho has won over hurdles twice here at 2m½f, whilst Clear The Runway landed a Class 2, 2m1f chase here back in October. He has also won over today's trip elsewhere, as have Eritage, Everyonesgame and Merry Berry, whilst Accidental Rebel, Solo Saxophone and Finisk River have all scored over track and trip, leaving just Celestial Horizon and Galata Bridge to have won neither!

Instant Expert says the entire field have at least one good ground hurdle/bumper win to their names and that two of them have already won at Class 2. We already know that Accidental Rebel is a former Class 1 winner, but so is Celestial Horizon...

Solo Saxophone and Accidental Rebel look well suited here with the latter really coming to the fore in handicap hurdles...

...but he is 10lbs higher than his last win, which could prove problematical and three of his four career wins have been at Class 4.

The recent pace profiles for this field are interesting, as it looks like we might well have four of them battling it out for the lead, whilst the rest sit off and watch until later...

Merry Berry likes good ground and has a decent record over this trip, so if this track/trip suits front-runners, then she might well be in luck. And having consulted our Pace Analyser...

...that leading quartet are likely to be of great interest.

Summary

Before I looked closely at the race, I liked Galata Bridge. Good ground suits him, he gets on well with today's jockey and he won nicely last time out, but he's up in weight, trip and class here, so I'll be leaving him alone. If Accidental Rebel runs like two starts ago and not like LTO, then he'd be difficult to beat, but at a best price of 5/1, there's not much value there for me and the same applies to the 6/1 offered about Merry Berry. She's suited by going, trip and pace, but I'd want to back her E/W and 6's are a bit short for that purpose.

Should the mare drift, then she'd be a valid E/W proposition, but until then I think Solo Saxophone is the one to do that. He has good numbers across Instant Expert, will be up with the pace and was sharpened up on the Flat recently. He'd need plenty of luck to win this, but at 11/1 is a solid E/W chance.