Posts

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.40 Brighton : Paddy The Chef @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden to lead 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

King Alfonso @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

Trainer Dai Burchell's 10 yr old gelding had a hat-trick of wins within six weeks starting around this time last year (18th August to be precise) and he comes here in another spell of decent form having finished 312 in his last three outings. He can consider himself unlucky not to be seeking a hat-trick again today, having only been beaten by a length last time out here over course and distance 22 days ago, despite his saddle slipping at the last fence.

Today's race conditions should suit him, though, as his chase record includes...

  • 4/12 after 13-28 days rest
  • 4/12 in fields of 4-7 runners
  • 4/9 on Good ground
  • 3/9 over 2m½f /2m1f
  • 3/9 at odds of 5/2 to 6/1
  • 2/9 here at Worcester (inc a win over C&D)
  • and 1/1 under jockey Ben Jones.

This horse was sired by Desert King, whose handicap chasers have won 21 of 105 (20% SR) contests since the start of 2016, generating profits of 59.23pts at an ROI of 56.4%, with those competing at distances shorter than 2m2f winning 13 of 44 (29.6%) for 54.5pts (+123.9%).

And after looking at horse and sire, let's now focus on trainer Dai Burchell, as his handicap chasers sent off at 10/1 and shorter are 30/119 (25.2% SR) for 65.6pts (+55.1% ROI) since 2012, including of relevance today...

  • 28/89 (31.5%) for 89.7pts (+100.8%) after a break of 11-45 days
  • 21/72 (29.2%) for 70.1pts (+97.4%) from runners aged 9 or older
  • 19/72 (26.4%) for 39pts (+54.1%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 19/64 (29.7%) for 69.8pts (+109%) during April-August
  • 6/25 (24%) for 18.75pts (+75%) at Class 3
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 7.73pts (36.8%) at 2m1f and shorter
  • 4/16 (25%) for 7.46pts (+46.6%) here at Worcester
  • and 4/16 (25%) for 8.57pts (+53.6%) since the start of last year

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on King Alfonso @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were offering a further half point. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

8.40 Sandown : Greenside @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn due to change in going)

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, this Emma Lavelle-trained 6 yr old mare has already won twice and placed once from just five starts and comes here off the back of winning a Class 4 hurdle at Chepstow last time out, 32 days ago.

In addition to her form displayed so far, she also cropped on several of my stored angles, here are just a handful of them...

1. In UK handicap hurdles since 2013, horses who won a Novice hurdle LTO 11-90 days earlier are 220/1200 (18.3% SR) for 109.2pts (+9.1% ROI), including...

  • Class 3/4 : 151/730 (20.7%) for 100.1pts (+13.7%)
  • females : 42/223 (18.8%) for 47.5pts (+21.3%)
  • and Class 4 females are 18/97 (18.6%) for 13.54pts (+14%)

2. Emma Lavelle + Class 4/5 hurdlers + 2016-19 = 38/240 (15.8% SR) for 37.9pts (+15.8% ROI), from which...

  • at 2m6f and shorter : 34/201 (16.9%) for 55.1pts (+27.4%)
  • in handicaps : 16/89 (18%) for 17.4pts (+19.5%)
  • in hcps @ 2m6f and shorter : 14/60 (23.3%) for 32.6pts (+54.3%)

3. Emma's LTO winners sent off at 2/1 to 17/2 in 2016-19, some 21-60 days after that win are 20/62 (32.3% SR) for 51.8pts (+84.9% ROI), amongst which...

  • hurdlers : 16/33 (48.5%) for 64.2pts (+194.5%)
  • at 2m4.5f to 3m1f : 16/34 (47.1%) for 56.7pts (+166.7%)
  • hurdlers at 2m4.5f to 3m1f : 14/21 (66.7%) for 62.6pts (+297.9%)
  • 6 yr olds : 10/25 (40%) for 39.3pts (+157.2%)
  • ridden by Leighton Aspell : 3/5 (60%) for 9.8pts (+196%)

4. Here at Worcester, Emma's runners are 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 22.5pts (+60.8% ROI) since 2016 and these include...

  • at 5/1 and shorter : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.6pts (+115%)
  • handicappers are 7/26 (26.9%) for 28.1pts (+108.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 25.5pts (+141.9%)
  • and C4 hcps @ 5/1 and shorter = 3/4 (75%) for 11.25pts (+281.1%)

5. And finally for today, Emma's handicap hurdle debutants sent off at 2/1 to 11/1 since 2016 are 8/25 (32% SR) for 25pts (+100% ROI), from which...

  • at 2m3f to 2m5.5f : 7/17 (41.2%) for 29.86pts (+175.7%)
  • 6 yr olds : 6/20 930%) for 15.24pts (+76.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 20.65pts (+206.5%)
  • females : 3/3 (100%) for 21.72pts (+724%)
  • at Worcester : 1/2 (50%) for 3.94pts (+197%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

8.00 Stratford :Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG WON at 13/8 (2nd until after 1st, chased leaders, went 2nd again 2 out, soon led, clear before last, easily won by some 27 lengths!)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOG

In an 11-runner, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £3184 to the winner... 

Why?

No danger of Tuesday's runner getting nailed late on, as he won by 27 lengths with ease. I'm hoping for a similar level of performance from this 6 yr old gelding, who probably did a little too much on the front end when third (beaten by 2 lengths) when last seen 32 days ago. That said he fared best of those racing prominently and our racecard data suggests prominent racing is successful here over this trip at Worcester.

To date, our boy has...

  • 3 wins and 7 places from 13 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 here at Worcester
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 over this 2m7.5f trip
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 under today's jockey Tom O'Brien
  • won his only attempt at course and distance (also ridden by Tom O'Brien that day.

He is trained by Robert Stephens, who seems to have found a little niche in races like today's, as since the start of 2015, his hurdlers are 8 from 33 (24.2% SR) for 45.7pts (+138.5% ROI) here at Worcester, with the following angles of relevance at play on this occasion...

  • over trips of 2m4f to 3m : 5/23 (21.7%) for 46pts (+200%)
  • within 5 weeks of their last run : 7/21 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+173.3%)
  • handicappers are 6/21 (28.6%) for 42.6pts (+202.9%)
  • on good ground : 5/21 (23.8%) for 43.2pts (+205.7%)
  • ridden by Tom O'Brien : 6/18 933.3%) for 21.95pts (+122%)
  • males are 4/16 (25%) for 41.1pts (+256.6%)
  • those racing off a mark (OR) of 90-105 are 6/15 (40%) for 34.7pts (+231.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 17.2pts (+122.8%)
  • in July : 4/13 (30.8%) for 27pts (+207.7%)
  • 3 to 5 weeks since last run : 4/12 933.3%) for 35.7pts (+297.7%)
  • and those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO are 4/10 (40%) for 28.71pts (+287.1%)

And if you wanted some non-trainer/course specific data, one of my stored micro-systems tells me that in UK Class 3-5 handicap hurdle races over 2 to 3 miles during the March to September period, former course and distance winners who either won or were beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 119/502 (23.7% SR) for 252.5pts (+50.3% ROI).

The above will clearly give rise to a whole host of profitable angles, which I won't bore you with, but it's worth noting that...

  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 27/96 (28.1%) for 104.6pts (+108.9%)
  • whilst here at Worcester, they are 18/51 (35.3%) for 89.3pts (+175.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.15 Brighton : Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Close up, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon every chance, one pace final furlong)

Next up is Wednesday's...

2.20 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Get Ready Freddy @ 4/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

Well, we have an 8 yr old gelding with 3 wins and a place from his seven previous attempts over the larger obstacles, including...

  • 3 wins & a place from 6 at trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • 3 wins & a place from 5 in handicaps
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 for trainer Dan Skelton
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 for jockey Harry Skelton
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 wearing a tongue tie
  • 1 from 2 here at Worcester
  • 1 from 2 over course and distance

The yard is in decent form too with 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) over the last 30 days returning level stakes profits of 9.42pts at an ROI of 14.1%, from which...

  • Harry has ridden 17 winners from 59 (28.8%) for 4.54pts (+7.7%)
  • handicappers are 14/52 (26.9%) for 14.8pts (+28.5%)
  • chasers are 8/23 (34.8%) for 4.63pts (+20.1%)
  • and Harry is 7/21 (33.3%) for 5.3pts (+25.2%) on handicap chasers

...whilst more long-term, since the start of 2015 Dan Skelton's chasers are 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 25.4pts (+74.8% ROI) here at Worcester and these include of relevance today...

  • 7 winners from 29 (24.1%) for 25pts (+86.2%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 4 from 17 (23.5%) for 18.7pts (+109.7%) at Class 4
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 11.5pts (+95.9%) over this course and distance...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Get Ready Freddy @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.20 Exeter :  Eddy @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 2/1 : Held up mid-division, headway before 3 out, soon every chance, ridden and pressed winner before last, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a length...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

2.45 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 3, 5yo+ novices handicap chase contest over 2m7f on good ground...

...featuring a 6 yr old grey gelding who returned from a 21-week absence to finish as a runner-up on his chase debut LTO 19 days ago. He was only beaten by two lengths behind a former Gr1 hurdle winner rated at 143! Prior to this chasing bow, our boy had never been out of the frame in 7 NHF/Hurdle contests finishing 3113211 and to date he is...

  • 3 wins and a place from 6 on good ground
  • 4 wins and a place from 5 under jockey Harry Bannister
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 this year
  • 1 from 1 in a handicap
  • 1 from 1 at Class 3

Other reasons to back this one include...

1. Being trained by Charlie Mann whose horses are bang in form right now with 4 winners & 3 placers from his last 9 runners (10121P122) over the last couple of weeks or so and this is his only runner of the day. Since 2011, when having just one runner per day, Charlie is 73/455 (16% SR) for 140.6pts (+30.9% ROI)

2. Charlie's Class 3 to 5 handicappers with just one other run in the previous 90 days are 25/139 (18%) for 72pts (+51.8% ROI) since the start of 2010.

3. The Charlie Mann / Harry Bannister partnership is good for 24 winners from 94 efforts (25.5% SR) for 55.9pts (+59.4% ROI), from which...

  • in handicaps : 18/71 (25.4%) for 54.9pts (+77.3%)
  • in chases : 10/47 (21.3%) for 36pts (+76.6%)
  • and in hcp chases : 10/44 (22.7%) for 39pts (+88.7%)

4. Pickamix was sired by Sagamix, whose offspring are 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 33.1pts (+87.2% ROI) when priced at 15/2 or shorter since the start of 2015 including...

  • males at 14/25 956%) for 35.7pts (+142.8%)
  • in handicaps : 5/11 (45.5%) for 20.3pts (+184.2%)
  • over 2m5f to 3m : 3/9 (33.3%) for 8pts (+88.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/2 (100%) for 9.37pts (+468.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG, which was available from Betvictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.55pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.10 Towcester : Sailors Warn @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 : Jumped left and not always fluent, in rear, headway when blundered badly 3 out, no chance after, went 3rd close home...

Thursday's selection goes in the...

2.20 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Get Ready Freddy @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m0.5f on good ground...

...where this 7 yr old gelding will attempt to continue a rich vein of form that has seen him finish 141221 in his last six outings (14121 over fences), having won at Uttoxeter last time out, 18 days ago.

In six efforts in chase contests, he has achieved the following...

  • 3/5 at 2m to 2m1f
  • 2/3 since moving to Dan Skelton's yard
  • 2/3 under jockey Harry Skelton
  • 2/3 going left handed
  • 2/3 wearing a tongue tie
  • 1/1 here at Worcester
  • 1/1 over course and distance

The Skelton partnership is, of course also something to consider as when Dan & Harry have previously teamed up in Class 4/5 handicap chases, they have 43 winners from 140 (30.7% SR) for profits of 42.9pts at a decent ROI of 30.6%, from which...

  • male runners are 40/127 (31.5%) for 44.4pts (+34.9%)
  • on Good ground : 27/82 (32.9%) for 22.2pts (+27.1%)
  • in the August to December period : 21/66 (31.8%) for 39.4pts (+59.8%)
  • over trips of 2m to 2m1.5f : 15/43 (34.9%) for 24pts (+55.9%)
  • in 2017: 12/39 (30.8%) for 14.7pts (+37.6%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 12/24 (50%) for 27.3pts (+113.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Get Ready Freddy @ 5/2 BOG, which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.15 Chester : Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG WON at 5/2 : Tracked leaders, closed going well 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, reduced lead towards finish, won by half a length...

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.35 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Addrastos @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

I might be tempting fate here, but this 5yr old gelding never seems to run a bad race and has finished in the first three home in all of his eleven starts to date, including a two from two return since switching to these bigger obstacles.

He won over this course and distance on his chasing debut by four lengths and then followed up 25 days ago with a 10 lengths success at Stratford.

His trainer Jamie Snowden's handicap chasers are 55/345 (15.9% SR) for 68.9pts (+20% ROI), including...

  • at Class 1 to 4 : 45/257 (17.5%) for 90.4pts (+35.2%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 23/128 (18%) for 55.6pts (+43.4%)
  • since the start of 2016 : 18/76 (23.7%) for 54.1pts (+71.2%)
  • LTO winners are 11/47 (23.4%) for 13.4pts (+28.6%)
  • in August/September : 7/33 (21.2%) for 12.4pts (+37.5%)
  • here at Worcester : 4/22 (18.2%) for 10.4pts (+47.3%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey Gavin Sheehan are 4/18 (22.2%) for 5pts (+27.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Addrastos @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Sunday. For what it's worth, I'm on with SkyBet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.15 Chester : Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG WON at 5/2 : Tracked leaders, closed going well 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, reduced lead towards finish, won by half a length...

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.35 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Addrastos @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

I might be tempting fate here, but this 5yr old gelding never seems to run a bad race and has finished in the first three home in all of his eleven starts to date, including a two from two return since switching to these bigger obstacles.

He won over this course and distance on his chasing debut by four lengths and then followed up 25 days ago with a 10 lengths success at Stratford.

His trainer Jamie Snowden's handicap chasers are 55/345 (15.9% SR) for 68.9pts (+20% ROI), including...

  • at Class 1 to 4 : 45/257 (17.5%) for 90.4pts (+35.2%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 23/128 (18%) for 55.6pts (+43.4%)
  • since the start of 2016 : 18/76 (23.7%) for 54.1pts (+71.2%)
  • LTO winners are 11/47 (23.4%) for 13.4pts (+28.6%)
  • in August/September : 7/33 (21.2%) for 12.4pts (+37.5%)
  • here at Worcester : 4/22 (18.2%) for 10.4pts (+47.3%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey Gavin Sheehan are 4/18 (22.2%) for 5pts (+27.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Addrastos @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Sunday. For what it's worth, I'm on with SkyBet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.30 Beverley : Ronnie The Rooster @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 9/4 Close up, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Worcester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Petiville6/1 BOG

Why?

A 5 yr old gelding who has made a promising start to his hurdling career for trainer Richard Hobson, making the frame on both occasions and only beaten by a length and three quarters at Perth last time out.

That run 21 days ago was over the same trip as today, but he now takes a drop back in class, which should help his cause.

Trainer Richard Hobson doesn't have the best, largest or most prolific string of horses at his disposal, so he does what these smaller yards have to do : find a niche/angle and work with it to a positive outcome. Richard's strength appears to lie in the shorter distances ie 2 to 2.5 miles, where his runners are 13 from 70 (18.6% SR) for 56.2pts (+80.2% ROI) profit since the start of 2015.

This is, admittedly, not the largest sample size I've ever used to pick a horse (nowhere near the smallest either!), but those runners do throw out some interesting facts related to this contest, such as...

  • 4 to 6 yr olds are 11/46 (23.9%) for 63.7pts (+138.4%)
  • those ridden by Alain Cawley are 8/37 (21.6%) for 62.7pts (+169.5%)
  • hurdlers are also 8/37 (21.6%) but for 50.1pts (+135.3%)
  • non-handicappers are 8/36 (22.2%) for 63.1pts (+175.3%)
  • those placed 2nd to 5th last time out are 9/33 (27.3%) for 36.6pts (+110.8%)
  • those last seen 6 to 21 days ago are 6/24 (25%) for 8.1pts (+33.7%)
  • those dropping down a class are 3/11 (27.3%) for 8.32pts (+75.6%)
  • and those beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 3/3 (100%) for 16.03pts (+534.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Petiville6/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.15pm on Tuesday, but grab the 13/2 BOG from Betfair if you can ( I can't!). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2016

Tuesday's Result :

8.10 Kempton : Cryptic @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, outpaced 2f out, soon ridden, ran on inside final furlong, 3rd and held towards finish)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.05 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Delores Delightful at 15/2 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old mare has finished 331452 this year since adopting the tongue tie and with previous wins at both 2m6f and 3m, today's 2m7f shouldn't be beyond her capabilities. She also has winning form under today's jockey Lizzie Kelly.

Trainer Nick Williams' hurdlers are 76/488 (15.6% SR) for 79.4 pts (+16.3% ROI) since the start of 2008 and since 2013, they are 36/255 (14.1% SR) for 46pts (+18.1% ROI), of which...

  • Lizzie Kelly is 17 from 97 (17.5%) for 71pts (+73.2%)
  • those racing over 2m4f to 3m1f are 14/96 (14.6%) for 33.5pts (+34.9%)
  • and Lizzie Kelly is 7/39 (18%) for 49.3pts (+126.5%) over ttrips of 2m4f to 3m1f.

The final piece of the jigsaw is the breeding and this mare is by Saint des Saints, whose offspring are 92/487 (18.9% SR) for 280.8pts (+57.7% ROI) since the start of 2011, with the following of relevance today...

  • hurdlers : 50/270 (18.5%) for 294.8pts (+109.2%)
  • handicaps : 36/236 (15.3%) for 140.7pts (+59.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers : 22/140 (15.7%) for 157.6pts (+112.6%)
  • over 2m4.5f to 3m0.5f : 36/135 (26.7%) for 59.9pts (+44.4%)
  • at Class 3  : 14/90 (15.6%) for 49.6pts (+55.1%)
  • and those coming back from a break of 180-240 days are 10/29 (34.5%) for 16.2pts (+55.9%)

...highlighting...a 1pt win bet on Delores Delightful at 15/2 BOG, from BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, who led the way at 6.05pm on Tuesday night with some 7/1 BOG available elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Worcester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2016

Thursday's Result :

5.40 Pontefract : Highly Sprung @ 11/2 BOG 7th at 4/1 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, no impression over 1f out, weakened entering final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Crick at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old mare is in fine form at present with three wins and a runner-up finish from her last four efforts over hurdles (1121) and she's well suited by conditions here, as she's 3 from 4 under today's jockey Wayne Hutchinson, she's 3/5 going left handed, she's 1 from 1 at this track, 1 from at Class 3 and although this is her first crack at 2m4f, she is 1 from 1 at 2m3f.

In addition to those details, jockey Wayne is 5 from 21 (23.8% SR) here at Worcester since 2013 when riding for Alan King, including 3 wins from 9 (33.3% SR) for 70.6pts (+78.5% ROI) over hurdles, including a win on Miss Crick here back in May of this year.

And if her own stats and those of the trainer/jockey aren't quite enough to persuade you, then a quick look at her breeding might. She's one of many offspring of one of my favourite sires, the recently departed Midnight Legend, about whom there are a myriad of profitable angles to follow, but the one I'm going to share here is very simple indeed...

...Midnight Legend offspring / Class 3 hcp hurdles / 2009 onwards = 35/160 (21.9% SR) for 190.8pts  profit at a whopping ROI of 119.3%.

And of those 160 runners...

  • those who last ran 11-90 days ago are 30/125 (24%) for 169.5pts (+135.6%)
  • those racing over 2m1f to 3m are 29/110 (26.4%) for 194pts (+176.4%)
  • females are 19/75 (25.3%) for 136.5pts (+182%)
  • 5 yr olds are 7/33 (21.2%) for 42.6pts (+129.1%)

and females racing over 2m1f to 3m, 11-90 dslr are 13/47 (27.7% SR) for 120.4pts (+256.2% ROI).

...resulting in...a 1pt win bet on Miss Crick at 4/1 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Betfair Sports and/or BetVictor at 5.25pm on Thursday (it was 5/1 at 5.20!), but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Worcester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2016

Monday's Result :

2.50 Windsor : Sirajiah @ 9/2 BOG WON at 4/1 (Towards rear, headway halfway to chase leaders, kept on to lead towards finish, winning by half a length in the end.)

It was only when I was compiling the review of last week's efforts (that review is here, in case you missed it), that I realised that Sirajiah was our 1500th SotD selection, so a 9/2 winner was a lovely way to hit that milestone. We now set sail towards 2000 picks, as...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Worcester:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kinari at 5/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Peter Bowen's yard is showing the early signs of springing into action in advance of the "proper" NH season with two winners from their last 8 runners and three winners from their last six chase contests with jockey Sean Bowen being 2/7 and 3/5 from those two sets of runners.

The above augurs well for a yard that has already had 17 winners from 72 (23.6% SR) for 31.2pts (+43.3% ROI) profit here at Worcester since the start of 2013, with the following of both relevance and interest today...

  • those with a top 4 finish LTO : 13/49 (26.5%) for 39.2pts (+80%)
  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter : 15/48 (31.25%) for 11.44pts (+23.8%)
  • on Good ground : 10/45 (22.2%) for 39.1pts (+86.9%)
  • chasers : 7/32 (21.9%) for 24.6pts (+76.9%)
  • hcp chasers : 6/28 (21.4%) for 24.9pts (+88.8%)
  • and over this 2m4f trip : 4/19 (21.1%) for 20.3pts (+106.6%)

In additon to the above, Kinari is also Peter's only runner of the day and in the past (since 2008, anyway!) such solo runners are 72/502 (14.3% SR) for 84.8pts (+16.9% ROI) with those returning from a break of 21 to 60 days winning 31 of 241 (+12.9%) for 52.1pts (+21.6%).

The above sets of data don't shout "5/1 shot" to me, so I think we could nick a point or more above SP here, especially when you consider the horse's own credentials and suitability for the task in hand.

This 6 yr old gelding's last 4 runs have resulted in a sequence reading 1112, all over fences and it's highly likely that the last of those runs was just one race too many as his sixth outing in just 73 days. He has now had 58 days to get over the exertions and a drop in trip allied with a 2lb easing of his mark by the assessor must give him a fighting chance of a fourth win in 11 starts over fences.

And of his current 3/10 record in chase contests, he has achieved the following...

  • 3/7 at 6/1 or shorter
  • 3/7 at the age of 6
  • 2/7 under Sean Bowen
  • 3/6 in a tongue tie
  • 3/5 on good ground
  • 3/4 wearing a visor
  • 2/4 in these low prize money Class 4 contests
  • 1/2 here at Worcester
  • and despite never running at 2m4f, he did win his only race at 2m 5f by some 4.5 lengths four starts ago when winning for the first time over fences.

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Kinari at 5/1 BOG with any one of the seven firms all offering the same odds at 6.45pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Worcester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 30th August 2016

Monday's Result :

5.25 Epsom : Crowning Glory @ 4/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden out to beat Ripoll by a length and a quarter, comfortably enough in the end)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG

Why?

A handicap debut now beckons for this 7 yr old gelding who won a maiden over 2m 0.5f at Bangor by 9 lengths last time out, 11 days ago. He was rated at 113 that day and even taking into consideration that his jockey had a 3lb claim there, today's opening handicap mark of 114 might prove to be a little lenient.

Sam Twiston-Davies will ride for dad Nigel and Sam is in good nick. I saw him ride a near-15/1 double at Cartmel on Saturday and he always relishes riding for "the family".

This time of year has become known as "Twister Season" in many quarters, but for those of you not familiar with it, it's basically the right time of year for backing Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers.

What you need is a 5 to 10 yr old NTD-trained hurdler running in August/September/October and that's it. Back them all since 1st August 2008 and you've 64 winners from 303 (21.1% SR) and a £20 stake on each would have made you £5186 profit at a very attractive 85.6% ROI.

If you don't want 10-12 bets per month from just one angle in your portfolio, some sensible/logical filters include...

  • 5-8 yr olds, who are 60/273 (22%) for 254pts (+93%)
  • males are 55/250 (22%) for 236.2pts (+94.5%)
  • Class 4 runners are 38/149 (25.5%) for 246.1pts (+165.2%)
  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 33/145 (22.8%) for 174.6pts (+120.4%)
  • and those competing over 1m 7.5f to 2m 0.5f are 18/65 (27.7%) for 42.4pts (+65.2%)

AND...5-8 yr old males ridden by Sam in a Class 4 race are 18/57 (31.6% SR) for 160.5pts (+281.6% ROI)

And to be perfectly honest, that's enough to be able to base a bet on, but I do like to give a little more where possible, so we could also look at the fate of Nigel's handicap hurdlers turned back out with 30 days of a win and we see that since 2008, they are 21 from 115 (18.3% SR) for 36pts (+31.3% ROI).

Convinced now? Or do you need one more? Oh, go on then...Nigel Twiston-Davies' NH handicap debutants are 29/159 (18.2% SR) for 103.9pts (+65.4% ROI) since the start of 2010 with hurdlers providing 25 of those winners from 139 efforts (18%), generating level stakes profits of 101.2pts at an ROI of 72.8%.

And of those 139 hurdling handicap debutants, Class 4 runners are 14/62 (22.6%) for 78pts (+125.8%), whilst those racing over 2m / 2m 0.5f are 6/21 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+259.5%) and that's your lot for today...

...so, it's time to place...a 1pt win bet on Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG, with either Bet365 or Hills who jointly headed the market at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Worcester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 12th July 2016

Monday's Result :

7.10 Wolverhampton : Rich Again @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on to lead towards finish to win by a neck)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.30 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Samtu at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has looked much improved for a switch to the Skelton yard, finishing 1225182 in seven efforts over hurdles and was possibly unlucky to run into a progressive Nicky Henderson improver last time out. That was here at Worcester over course and distance, when he was a gallant 12/1 runner-up to eventually well backed 6/4 fav Barman (who we had backed ourselves as that day's SotD!).

There's nothing of Barman's quality here today and I expect another bold effort from the front on a track that rewards front runners.

Trained by Dan Skelton, as I mentioned earlier and it's worth noting than Dan's Class 1 to 4 handicap hurdlers are 38 from 205 (18.5% SR) for 38.pts (+18.7% ROI) when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 12/1, from which...

  • those ridden by Harry Skelton are 30/145 (20.7%) for 59.8pts (+41.2%)
  • his 5/6 yr olds are 23/94 (24.5%) for 60pts (+63.9%)
  • Class 4 runners are 17/73 (23.3%) for 16.4pts (+22.4%)
  • and those racing over trips of 2m to 2m1f are 13/63 (20.6%) for 23.6pts (+37.5%)

AND...from the above, I can also tell you that when Harry rides Dan's 5/6 yr olds at Class 4, they've won 12 of 34 (35.3%) for 37.1pts (+109.1%), with those racing over 2m4f or shorter winning 8 of 20 (40%) for 26.1pts (+130.5%)

But wait, there's another little bit more! Dan Skelton's runners turned out within 4 to 15 days of a top 4 finish LTO are 41/113 (36.36%) for 35.5pts (+31.4%) with Harry riding 27 winners from 76 (35.5%) for 29.1pts (+38.3%).

...so the call is a 1pt win bet on Samtu at 4/1 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook, who were the first to show at 5.15pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.15 Leicester : Theydon Thunder @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 6/4 (Held up, towards rear, effort 2f out, headway over 1f out, no impression)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Barman at 5/2 BOG

Why?

Just four runs to date for this 5yr old gelding, all over hurdles, all under today's jockey Nico de Boinville and all over today's 2m trip. The going is forecasted as good and two of Barman's runs have been on good ground, so it would seem that conditions are ideal for him here.

He has been progressive so far having been pulled up at the last on debut, then finishing 5th of 15 next time out. He then came here to Worcester and won over this course and distance by a length and a half just over six weeks ago, with next/last run resulting on a comprehensive 7 lengths success at Uttoxeter last Monday.

He ran off a mark of 110 that day and had horses rated 112 and 115, 7 and 8 lengths respectively behind him without him having to be driven to a finish, so today's mark of 117 for his handicap debut should still be a very winnable mark.

Both trainer and jockey are in good form individually and collectively and I won't bother/bore you with the very well known figures regarding the De Boinville/Henderson partnership, suffice to say they do work well together!

However, what I will tell you is that handicap hurdlers who won LTO and now return to the scene of a course and distance success are 307 from 1550 (19.8% SR) for profits of 214.7pts (+13.9% ROI) since the start of 2008, which is an excellent return from such a large sample size. I do, however, appreciate that 180-ish bets a year from angle might be too much for some of you, so why not try the following angles taken from the original stat...

  • males are 257/1284 (20%) for 181.9pts (+14.2%)
  • those with a run in the last 30 days : 235/1106 (21.3%) for 181.5pts (+16.5%)
  • on good ground : 101/513 (19.7%) for 144.7pts (+28.2%)
  • 5yr olds are 55/213 (25.8%) for 75.4pts (+35.7%)
  • and here at Worcester : 16/68 (23.5%) for 35.8pts (+52.6%)

Also, in addition the horse's suitability, the trainer/jockey performances and the above stats, we should quickly look at Nicky Henderson's record with his hurdlers on handicap debut and that quick look tells me that since the start of 2011, they've won an impressive 35 of 166 (21.1% SR) for level stakes profits of some 121.6pts at an ROI of 73.3%. And with today's race in mind, those 166 runners are...

  • 26/106 (24.5%) for 124.8pts (+117.7%) when rated (OR) 90 to 130
  • 25/75 (33.3%) for 50.7pts (+67.3%) at odds of evens to 11/2
  • 16/67 (23.9%) for 103.3pts (+154.2%) on good ground
  • 15/56 (26.8%) for 77.2pts (+137.9%) over trips of 2m/2m0.5f
  • and they're 4 from 10 (40%) for 25.94pts (+259.4%$) under Nico de Boinville.

...so the play is a 1pt win bet on Barman at 5/2 BOG with either Boylesports or Betway, who led the market at 7.05pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...