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Stat of the Day, 4th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

8.00 Stratford :Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG WON at 13/8 (2nd until after 1st, chased leaders, went 2nd again 2 out, soon led, clear before last, easily won by some 27 lengths!)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOG

In an 11-runner, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £3184 to the winner... 

Why?

No danger of Tuesday's runner getting nailed late on, as he won by 27 lengths with ease. I'm hoping for a similar level of performance from this 6 yr old gelding, who probably did a little too much on the front end when third (beaten by 2 lengths) when last seen 32 days ago. That said he fared best of those racing prominently and our racecard data suggests prominent racing is successful here over this trip at Worcester.

To date, our boy has...

  • 3 wins and 7 places from 13 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 here at Worcester
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 over this 2m7.5f trip
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 under today's jockey Tom O'Brien
  • won his only attempt at course and distance (also ridden by Tom O'Brien that day.

He is trained by Robert Stephens, who seems to have found a little niche in races like today's, as since the start of 2015, his hurdlers are 8 from 33 (24.2% SR) for 45.7pts (+138.5% ROI) here at Worcester, with the following angles of relevance at play on this occasion...

  • over trips of 2m4f to 3m : 5/23 (21.7%) for 46pts (+200%)
  • within 5 weeks of their last run : 7/21 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+173.3%)
  • handicappers are 6/21 (28.6%) for 42.6pts (+202.9%)
  • on good ground : 5/21 (23.8%) for 43.2pts (+205.7%)
  • ridden by Tom O'Brien : 6/18 933.3%) for 21.95pts (+122%)
  • males are 4/16 (25%) for 41.1pts (+256.6%)
  • those racing off a mark (OR) of 90-105 are 6/15 (40%) for 34.7pts (+231.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 17.2pts (+122.8%)
  • in July : 4/13 (30.8%) for 27pts (+207.7%)
  • 3 to 5 weeks since last run : 4/12 933.3%) for 35.7pts (+297.7%)
  • and those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO are 4/10 (40%) for 28.71pts (+287.1%)

And if you wanted some non-trainer/course specific data, one of my stored micro-systems tells me that in UK Class 3-5 handicap hurdle races over 2 to 3 miles during the March to September period, former course and distance winners who either won or were beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 119/502 (23.7% SR) for 252.5pts (+50.3% ROI).

The above will clearly give rise to a whole host of profitable angles, which I won't bore you with, but it's worth noting that...

  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 27/96 (28.1%) for 104.6pts (+108.9%)
  • whilst here at Worcester, they are 18/51 (35.3%) for 89.3pts (+175.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th June

SALISBURY – JUNE 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £80.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 82.7% units went through – 5/1 – 11/4* - 10/3

Race 2: 15.9% of the remaining units when through – 2/1* - 7/2 – 7/1

Race 3: 20.1% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 43.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 3/1 (15/8)

Race 5: 67.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 3/1* - 14/1

Race 6: 29.4% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3 & 13/2 (2/1)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Forseti), 2 (Dombra) & 1 (Dirty Rascal)

Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Edged Out), 5 (Silverrica) & 3 (Rio Ronaldo)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (It’s the Only Way), 2 (Oberyn Martell) & 8 (Curfewed)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Big Tour), 3 (Valcartier) & 7 (Aquarium)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Drill) & 5 (Mekong)

Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Okool) & 2 (Mistress Quickly)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: ‘Team Hannon’ have won three of the last nine renewals of this opening event and in DIRTY RASCAL, Richard has declared a representative which has already shown a fair amount of potential.  This additional furlong should suit and if successful, it will be worth looking for Dunkerron’s entry over the course of the weekend, with Alan King’s Windsor winner (Dirty Rascal finished second) holding three entries on Saturday/Monday at the time of writing.  Richard Hannon has also offered the green light to his Intikhab newcomer Motafaawit which complicates matters to a fashion, though Jim Crowley’s mount is proving easy to back as I pen this column. Connections thought that DOMBRA could be a Royal Ascot juvenile in the making whereby this far lesser test should ensure a Placepot position at the very least. Similar comments could also apply to FORSETI I guess, especially as he was a 33/1 chance at the first time of asking when like Dombra, he finished a promising fourth with a juvenile success probably there for the taking at the right level.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions to date (six winners), statistics which ignore the 15/8 favourite in 2012 which was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.  Out of interest, the second favourite won the race at odds of 11/4.

 

2.40: EDGED OUT was due to contest this race last year but was withdrawn on account of the yielding conditions.  There will not be a repeat of that scenario twelve months on however with the sun beating down on this green and pleasant land for the foreseeable future.  It’s unusual for the west to create the highest temperature during a heatwave but that was the case yesterday when Wales recorded the highest reading at over thirty degrees. Back to the sport on offer and with EDGED OUT being a previous course and distance winner who is running off a sixteen ounce lower mark today, we can presume that Chris Mason’s Piccolo mare will be in the thick of things at the business end of proceedings.  SILVERICCA cannot be ignored either, despite the fact that that soft ground would have played to her strengths.  The fact remains however, that John Egan’s mount won this event two years ago when carrying an additional five pounds whereby you can detect that her Placepot chance (at the very least) is there for all to see.  That all said, RIO RONALDO also boasts obvious claims from further up the handicap following a fine Sandown effort the last day.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites have snared Placepot positions via ten renewals to date, statistics which include five (7/2, 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 & 2/1) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Edged Out (good to firm)

1/4—Silverrica (soft)

 

3.10: Messers Hannon (IT’S THE ONLY WAY & SIRINAPHA) & Channon (CURFEWED) have equally shared four of the last six contests between them, though their respective raiders face a decent rival in OBERYN MARTELL in an interesting event.  Mick won the race last year with a 25/1 newcomer whereby the 16/1 quote this morning for Curfewed is not likely to throw yours truly off the scent as the morning wears on.  IT’S THE ONLY WAY has already proved his durability and looks sure to go very close again.  Rossa Ryan’s mount hails from Lilbourne Lad stock which pleases the Hannon team no end with their former inmate having represented the stable to great effect a few years ago.  Throw Queen Shaahd into the mix and we have cracking two-year-old race to witness.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won to date, whilst nine market leaders secured Placepot positions in the process.  12 of the 16 winners won at 4/1 or less, with 25/1-13/2-10/1-7/1 chances snaring the other four contests.

 

3.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last thirteen renewals of this contest whilst ten of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5. There are no relevant vintage raider in the field this time around, whilst BIG TOUR and VALCARTIER make most appeal from those towards the top of the handicap.  AQUARIUM could out run his double figure price, albeit from well below the ‘superior’ weight barrier.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Mr Top Hat (heavy)

1/1—Power Of Darkness (good to firm)

 

4.10: Ten of the seventeen winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include seven of the last eleven gold medallists. Luca Cumani has only saddled one horse during the last nine days (beaten a short head), whilst the popular trainer was only conspicuous by his absence at Royal Ascot this year.  I’m hoping that DRILL can show the way forward this afternoon because as sure as night follows day, Luca will come roaring back to form any time soon and it’s worth noting that his number of runners look set to increase over the next few days according to the entries list.  Connections might have most to fear from MEKONG who looks a tad over the odds at 11/2 in a place as I head towards the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the previous 12 years before the 9/4** market leader obliged four years ago.  The race has reverted to type since then with market leading disappointing in general terms.

Record of the course winners in this Bibury Cup event:

1/1—Burgonet (good to firm)

 

4.40: The last eleven winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-4 or less which goes against the grain as the two horses I fancy most here are OKOOL and MISTRESS QUICKLY.  That said, I’m offering the pair from a Placepot perspective which should prove successful as long as at least eight of the nine declarations face the starter.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders (via twelve renewals) to date have claimed Placepot positions (four winners).

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/5—Air Squadron (2 x good to firm)

1/3—Fitzwilly (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.15 Brighton : Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Close up, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon every chance, one pace final furlong)

Next up is Wednesday's...

2.20 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Get Ready Freddy @ 4/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

Well, we have an 8 yr old gelding with 3 wins and a place from his seven previous attempts over the larger obstacles, including...

  • 3 wins & a place from 6 at trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • 3 wins & a place from 5 in handicaps
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 for trainer Dan Skelton
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 for jockey Harry Skelton
  • 2 wins & a place from 4 wearing a tongue tie
  • 1 from 2 here at Worcester
  • 1 from 2 over course and distance

The yard is in decent form too with 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) over the last 30 days returning level stakes profits of 9.42pts at an ROI of 14.1%, from which...

  • Harry has ridden 17 winners from 59 (28.8%) for 4.54pts (+7.7%)
  • handicappers are 14/52 (26.9%) for 14.8pts (+28.5%)
  • chasers are 8/23 (34.8%) for 4.63pts (+20.1%)
  • and Harry is 7/21 (33.3%) for 5.3pts (+25.2%) on handicap chasers

...whilst more long-term, since the start of 2015 Dan Skelton's chasers are 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 25.4pts (+74.8% ROI) here at Worcester and these include of relevance today...

  • 7 winners from 29 (24.1%) for 25pts (+86.2%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 4 from 17 (23.5%) for 18.7pts (+109.7%) at Class 4
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 11.5pts (+95.9%) over this course and distance...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Get Ready Freddy @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 24th June

PONTEFRACT – JUNE 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £31.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 80.4% units went through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 13/2

Race 2: 69.8% of the remaining units when through – 1/3* (Win only)

Race 3: 36.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 11/4 (5/2)

Race 4: 64.8% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 9/1 – 40/1

Race 5: 38.2% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 (11/8)

Race 6: 20.0% of the units secured the dividend – 7/4 & 7/1 (11/8)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Heavenly Bliss) & 4 (Poetry)

Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Hazarfya) & 1 (Beauvais)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Dr Richard Kimble), 2 (Rainbow Rebel) & 3 (Indomeneo)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Alwaysandforever) & 5 (Cribbs Causeway)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Frederic), 1 (Suegioo) & 8 (Becky The Thatcher)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Excellent Times), 2 (Crotchet), 4 (Procedure) & 3 (Revived)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Mark Johnston (not represented this year) might have been frightened away by the two Newmarket raiders HEAVENLY BLISS and POETRY who are listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  Sir Michael Stoute (HEAVENLY BLISS) will be looking for compensation following the defeat of his 2/1 market leader twelve months ago when finding one too good on the day. POETRY is a Kingman representative and Michael Bell has found a half decent chance for his January foal to score at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured one silver medal between them alongside a Placepot position.

 

2.30: Mark Johnston’s Thirsk winner Bayshore Freeway is not easily overlooked, especially as Mark’s three-year-old humped 10-2 to victory the last day.  That said, the two Newmarket raider look particularly strong on this occasion, with HAZARFIYA marginally preferred to Saeed Bon Suroor’s debut Ripon winner BEAUVAIS.  Sir Michael Stoute’s first named raider ran in the Cheshire Oaks last time out and this drop in grade should bring about a victory, especially with the trainer currently boasting a 33% strike rate via his last seven winners, statistics which have produced level stake profits of 22 points via some of the most difficult races to win on the entire racing calendar!

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract card.

 

3.00: Only eighteen three-year-olds have contested this event to date, producing four winners, four seconds, two thirds and three fourth placed efforts in the process, whilst ten of the eleven winner have carried 8-13 or more. Unfortunately, the relevant trio of three-year-olds fail the weight trend but that said, it’s difficult to leave DR RICHARD KIMBLE and INDOMENEO out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.  I highlighted the chance of 12/1 shot RAINBOW REBEL at Chelmsford the other night (returned at 9/1) and it’s significant that Mark’s runner up has been declared just three days later.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

3/13—Trinity Star (2 x good & good to firm)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 8-4 during the last twelve years and having pinned my faith on the last two 9/1 and even money (four-year-old) winners, I’ll opt for ALWAYSANDFOREVER to complete the hat trick in a fascinating contest.  Her nine length victory at Windsor last time out had to be seen to be believed and with Luca Cumani champing at the bit to find winners just now (Luca had no runners at Royal Ascot during the entire week), we can safely presume that Ryan Moore’s mount will be well fired up today.  Luca boasts a 24% strike rate at this venue down the years and it is surely significant that ALWAYSANDFOREVER is his first runner at the track this season.  CRIBBS CAUSEWAY is preferred to Mark Johnston tigress Titi Makfi, albeit oh so marginally.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include five winners.

 

4.00: I have made reference to these Pontefract staying events plenty of times, but I reiterate that this contest resembles a graded greyhound race with the greatest respect to our canine friends, whereby horses go into the traps shaking hooves, begging the question, whose turn is it to win today?  If you want proof of that statement, you only have to digest the fact that four of the six course winners which contest the Placepot races at Pontefract this afternoon line up for this event.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, which suggests that SUEGIOO and last year’s beaten favourite FREDERIC enter the equation.  Add BECKY THE THATCHER into the mix and we should get through to the Placepot finale, providing we have survived the first four legs successfully.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twenty market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three favourites which prevailed from a win perspective during the study period.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/2—Frederic (good)

2/3—Win Place And Sho (good to firm & good to soft)

1/2—Medicine Hat (good)

1/2—Becky The Thatcher (good to firm)

 

4.30: PROCEDURE is a 9/1 chance with four leading firms this morning which looks a tad big given Sir Muchael Stoute’s current form (see full details in the 2.30 analysis).  That said, the claims of EXCELLENT TIMES and CROTCHET at the top of the market are impossible to ignore.  I have this nagging worry that a non-runner might raise its ugly head in the last leg our favourite wager, whereby I am also including Michael Bell’s raider REVIVED into the equation, given that the race would develop in to a frightening ‘win only’ contest should my notion evolve.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Pontefract programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 11th June

BRIGHTON – JUNE 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £325.70 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.5% units went through – 11/4 – 2/1* - 25/1

Race 2: 44.1% of the remaining units when through – 11/2 & 9/4*

Race 3: 8.3% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 12/1 – 20/1 (6/1)

Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 4/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 48.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 -7/4* - 16/1

Race 6: 68.7% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* & 11/2

 

  • Speculative investors might have thought that they had a four figure dividend in the making last year as the Placepot was worth £33.02 at the halfway stage and £109.04 after four legs. That said, £325.70 is not a bad wage on a daily basis for most folk.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Livvys Dream), 1 (Claudine) & 6 (Angel Of The North)

Leg 2 (2.30): 4 (Aegean Mist) & 6 (More Than Likely)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Lady Of Petra), 4 (Sunday Best) & 2 (Medici Oro)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Maori Bob) & 6 (Genetics)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Roundabout Magic), 1 (Big Lachie) & 5 (Ask the Guru)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Impart), 5 (Give Em A Clump) & 3 (New Rich)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: There will be worse outsiders on the card than ANGEL OF THE NORTH today I’ll wager and the 11/1 quote in a couple of places this morning is already looking under threat.  That said, LIVVYS DREAM and CLAUDINE are more logical winners of the contest from what we have witnessed thus far.

Favourite factor: Both market leaders have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions to date.

 

2.30: AEGEAN MIST looks the only possible danger to MORE THAN LIKELY, with Richard Hughes (2/4 for at the track) trying to ward off his former employers (‘Team Hannon) with his latter named Coach House filly who ran well to run third over this trip at the third time of asking at Windsor.  AEGEAN MIST is expected to run the hot favourite close though from my viewpoint, especially with the Hannon juveniles seemingly needing their first outings this term.  Accordingly, Sean Levey’s mount should be ready to challenge for major honours today.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders thus far picked up a Placepot position via a silver medal effort two years ago.

 

3.00: I’m quite happy to absorb the rule 4 deduction having been on LADY OF PETRA at 20/1 in the dead of night, a quote which might halve in price by the time that flag fall arrives.  I wouldn’t entirely rule out another ‘roughie’ in SUNDAY BEST personally, especially looking at the favourite stats below, albeit it is early doors as far as the contest goes just now.  I guess MEDICI ORO is the player to consider from further up the betting in a race which will take little winning.

Favourite factor: Detectives are still out searching for the 11/10 and 6/1 favourites in this race to date.

 

3.30: GENETICS and WHINGING WILLY (offered in that order of preference) have to be considered in such a weak race, though MAORI BOB should take the beating, especially with a five pound claimer reducing the burden today.  Cameron Noble is the relevant rider and with 29 gold medalists to his name alongside a 25% strike rate for Michael Bell via six winners, MAORI BOB is expected to return to winning ways.  ‘Bob’ is now seven pounds better off (taking the jockey claim into account) with Regicide for a two and a quarter length deficit the last day.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders has secured a Placepot position via two renewals.  That said, it’s only fair to point out that aside from a dead heat, both of the 6/4 joint favourite could not snare the ‘win only’ prize two years back.

Record of the trio of course winners in the third race:

3/13—Whinging Willie (2 x good to firm & good)

2/2—Fair Power (good to firm & good to soft)

2/3—Archimento (good to firm and good to soft)

 

4.00: 10/1 is a slight insult to dual (good to firm) course winner ASK THE GURU from my reading of the race, especially with Michael Attwater having saddled winners at the corresponding meeting in recent years.  I guess the form book reads fairly accurately however, whereby more logical winners include fellow course winner ROUNDABOUT MAGIC and BIG LACHIE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader snared a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Roundabout Magic (good to firm)

2/6—Ask The Guru (2 x good to firm)

 

4.30: DEEDS NOT WORDS won this event off 10-8 twelve months ago (his last victory) whereby his 9-10 burden today could feel like something of a feather-weight to Michael Wigham’s seven-year-old handicapper.  Regular readers will know that I have chased this Royal Applause gelding up hill and down dale in the past, none more so that when securing a double figure price ‘last time out’ which was backed down to less than half those odds before being withdrawn.  There is no doubting his chance but inconsistency has crept into his work now and I’m prepared to sit back and watch him win at ‘cramped’ odds compared to what might be on offer if raised in class for a subsequent race in better company next time out, should Tom Queally’s mount win today.  Preference from a Placepot angle is offered to IMPART, GIVE EM A CLUMP and NEW RICH.  Milly Naseb’s latter named mount might have been the call from a win perspective but for digesting his 0/24 win record on turf.

Favourite factor: Both (9/4 and Even money) favourites have obliged thus far.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Deeds Not Words (good to firm)

1/4—Strictly Carter (god to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 2nd June

EPSOM – JUNE 2 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2017: £503.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £1,364.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,108.98 - 45 favourites - 12 winners - 13 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Poet’s Prince) & 5 (Ship Of The Fen)

Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Shenanigans), 5 (Stage Name) & 1 (Diaphora)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Caspian Dream) & 1 (Arod)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Caspian Prince), 13 (Just That Lord), 16 (Tanasoq), 18 (Bahamian Sunset) & 12 (Harry Hurricane)

Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Hazapour) & 11 (Young Rascal)

Leg 6 (5.15): 9 (Reshoun), 10 (Star Of The East) & 14 (Golden Wolf)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last fourteen Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £831.51.  94 favourites have emerged via the 84 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 22 winners--28 placed--44 unplaced.  Ten of the last eleven winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, stats which led me to suggest that

Goodwood Zodiac would outrun his price two years ago before William Knight’s raider finished second at 33/1.  Drochaid was short listed last year before winning at 11/2.  POET’S PRINCE and SHIP OF THE FEN have plenty to offer potential investors to kick start the day, whilst offering MACAQUE as an outsider to consider.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 23 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process. Nine renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – most recent result listed first):

3-7-6 (8 ran-good)

14-15-3 (15 ran-food to soft)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Epsom record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Corazon Espinado (good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last eighteen renewals of this contest and with half (4/8) of the declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the quartet from my viewpoint are SHENANIGANS, STAGE NAME and DIAPHORA.  The trio are offered in order of preference whilst I’m not totally writing off the chance of the other vintage representative Soul Silver, despite the overnight quote of 25/1 for David Simcock’s Dragon Pulse filly.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed as have ten of the latest twenty market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-8-10 (10 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

 

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (Quadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 14 years paid £100.58.  Fifty eight favourites emerged, resulting in 18 winners, 14 were placed and 26 unplaced.  It would help a great deal if this ‘dead eight’ field remained intact as I have left the race to last to see how many options I have relating to my permutation.  Just two runners are available to yours truly and the pin has somehow fallen on the pair CENTURY DREAM and course winner AROD.  The overnight reserve is listed as last year’s winner Sovereign Debt.

Favourite factor: Sixteen of the last twenty winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  That said, only four of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

2-6 (7 ran-good)

1-11 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Arod (good)

1/2—Sovereign Debt (good)

 

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last thirteen renewals, whilst nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Horses emerging from ‘trap one’ have finished in the frame in five of the last nine renewals, winning on two occasions. JUST THAT LORD (1/20) demands to be included accordingly, whilst CASPIAN PRINCE is on a hat trick in the race has not faired too badly in trap two either!  His record of 4/5 at this unique circuit is probably one of the best of all time, particularly given the type of races that Michael Appleby’s grand servant generally contests.  My other trio against the field come from those drawn further wide, namely TANSOQ (16), BAHAMIAN SUNRISE (13) and HARRY HURRICANE (20) who might even have an advantage if plenty of moisture remains in the ground, albeit that is unlikely with the Epsom surface having been built on chalk.

Favourite factor: Only four of the last twenty favourites have finished in the frame.  Just one (5/1) market leader prevailed during the last eleven years during which time, the average price of the winner was 11/1 which is a perfectly respectable return in such a competitive race.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1-10-12-5 (19 ran-good)

17-19-20-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

Course winners in the ‘Dash’:

1/6—Duke Of Firenze (good)

4/5—Caspian Prince (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/4—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/5—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)

 

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and twelve placed horses in the Derby during the last nineteen years and with six of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1 and 14/1, so few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in that particular trial.  SAXON WARRIOR appears to be the main hope for the O’Brien team this year, though the favourite has been drifting in recent days, mainly because of the recent rain and the seemingly negative draw (1).  There is also the worry that the Deep Impact colt might not stay the trip after showing tremendous speed to win the Newmarket Guineas in such emphatic style.  I am leaving Ryan Moore’s mount out of my Placepot permutation, though mainly because Saxon Warrior will represent poor value for money, especially as if the favourite is beaten, there must be a chance that the defeat was caused because he failed to see out the twelve furlong which suggests that he might finish out of the money entirely. ROARING LION is another who has been friendless in the market these last few days and with Frankie waxing lyrical about his mount HAZAPOUR, the each way money on the day is likely to be for Dermot Weld’s Shamardal colt.  YOUNG RASCAL might have the most improvement in the field with plenty of untapped potential seemingly in place, especially having won at Chester after meeting plenty of trouble in running.  Of the really big priced runners, SEVENNA STAR could sneak the frame at around 25/1 for John Gosden who is seeking his third winner of this ‘Blue Riband’ event.

Favourite factor: Eighteen of the last nineteen winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby six years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1981.  Only a week ago, Saxon Warrior looked sure to be an odds on chance on Saturday, though that might not be the case now.

Draw factor:

14-13-7 (18 ran-good)

9-15-8 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the Derby this year:

1/2—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed ten of the last twenty renewals including nine of the last fourteen contests (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last nine years + first, second and fourth four years ago). I am pinning my hopes on RESHOUN (drawn 14/19), STAR OF THE EAST (10) and GOLDEN WOLF (2).  The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won the Placepot finale during the past twenty years, whilst just five of the other nineteen market leaders have additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

9-12-4 (10 ran-good)

16-14-17-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

15-4-20-9 (good)

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Great Hall (good)

1/2—Soldier In Action (good)

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

2/6—Lorelina (2 x good)

1/15—Whinging Willie (heavy)

2/8—Barwick (soft & haeavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 25th May

PONTEFRACT – MAY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £16.20 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 53.9% units went through – 11/4** - 11/4** - 16/1 (11/4**)

Race 2: 30.4% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 25/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 54.3% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* (Win only)

Race 4: 38.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2* - 16/1 – 8/1

Race 5: 72.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 7/4*

Race 6: 97.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/2 & 7/4 (Fav W/D)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (6.30): 10 (Kings Academy), 2 (Heir Of Excitement), 4 (Laqab) & 1 (Zlatan)

Leg 2 (7.00): 3 (New Society) & 5 (Alfred Richardson)

Leg 3 (7.30): 3 (Victory Command) & 1 (Celebrity Dancer)

Leg 4 (8.00): 9 (Foxtrot Night), 3 (Henley) & 7 (Alsvinder)

Leg 5 (8.30): 10 (Sempre Presto), 9 (Shes Queen) & 3 (Savannah Moon)

Leg 6 (9.00): 2 (Angels) & 1 (Breaking Records)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.30: Four-year-olds have won six of the eleven races contested during the last twelve years, whilst nine gold medallists carried nine stones or more. Vintage representatives completely dominated the finish two years ago, with two of the three horses filling the frame carrying the relevant weights.  KINGS ACADEMY (drawn 4/17 – low numbers best at Pontefract) is close enough to the rail to figure prominently, whilst others to consider include HEIR OF EXCITEMENT (10), LAQAB (2) and ZLATAN (7) in the most difficult race on the card to assess for openers.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five successful market leaders.

Pontfract record of the four course winners in the opening event:

1/4—Pumaflor (good)

2/12—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)

1/5—Beverley Bullet (soft)

1/4—Mr Cool Cash (good to soft)

 

7.00: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, whilst four-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, with NEW SOCIETY and ALFRED RICHARDSON potentially representing the vintage to good effect this time around.  The two horses are listed in order of preference, though five-year-old ICELAND has attracted overnight support which adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have claimed eight of the last ten contests, whilst eight of the last fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Pontefract record of the three course winners in the second race:

1/5—Croquembouche (good)

1/2—Alfred Richardson (good to firm)

1/2—Icefall (good to firm)

 

7.30: I highlighted Mark Johnston’s (successful) 5/1 chance Rufus King to big effect twelve months ago and with the trainer coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around, VICTORY COMMAND is the first nomination for the team sheet.  I don’t possess quite the same enthusiasm as I did last year, mainly because of the declaration of CELEBRITY DANCER who scored here on debut under soft conditions.  Although “good to firm” was the call by the officials first thing this morning, rain is set to hit Pontefract Park whereby you might want to take that statement with the proverbial pinch of salt.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals had slipped by since the last two favourites scored for Mark Johnston. Eight of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst horses returned at a top price of 9/2 have secured eight of the eleven contests.

Pontefract record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Celebrity Dancer (soft)

 

8.00: Much depends on which way the wind blows here in terms of how much rain falls throughout the day.  Rain would very much suit FOXTROT KNIGHT and having to declare my cards 13 hours in advance of the contest, I will take a chance that enough of the wet stuff will emerge to increase his chance.  Others to consider include ALSVINDER (cautionary note; performs better on A/W surfaces) and HENLEY.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/2 market leader was ‘short headed’ before last year’s favourite made amends by going one better that the same price.

Pontefract record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2—Foxtrot Knight (soft)

2/4—Grandad’s World (good & good to soft)

 

8.30: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals whereby it is surprising to say the least that just two vintage raiders have been declared this time around.   SEMPRE PRESTO and SHES QUEEN should both be there or thereabouts as the jockeys raise their whips though if rain falls to half decent effect, SAVANNAH MOON would have to enter calculations.

Favourite factor: Three winning favourites have been recorded via eleven renewals during the last twelve years, with four of the last eight market leaders having claimed Placepot positions.

Pontefract record of the course winner in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

1/1—Savannah Moon (soft)

 

9.00: ANGELS and BREAKING RECORDS should have the finish to themselves and with Tim Easterby in high spirits after his victory in the National Stakes at Sandown last night, the trainer could be partying the night away with ANGELS having added to the tally in more ‘local’ surroundings.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new contest on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 10th May

CHESTER – MAY 10 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years on day two:

2017: £42.70 (7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed)

2016: £30.40 (8 favourites – 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot divided: £102.48 - 47 favourites - 18 won - 16 placed - 13 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 81.2% units went through – 10/11* & 4/1

Race 2: 68.6% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* & 4/1

Race 3: 48.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2** - 9/1 – 8/1 (7/2**)

Race 4: 49.3% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 8/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 & 6/1 (4/6)

Race 6: 52.0% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 11/1 – 5/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (El Astronaute), 1 (Doctor Sardonicus) & 6 (Hyperfocus)

Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Rostropovich), 5 (My Lord And Master) & 1 (Kenya)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Tadleel), 8 (Dragon’s Tail) & 1 (Another Batt)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Idaho) & 6 (Muntahaa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Arcadian Rocks) & 6 (Ynys Mon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 4 (Christopher Robin), 3 (Ghostwatch) & 1 (Austrian School)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We started the Chester meeting off with a successful permutation yesterday – let’s hope for more of the same today!

 

1.50:  EL ASTRONAUTE attempts to follow up last year’s success in the race and with trainer John Quinn having scored with four of his last eight runners, Jason Hart’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  DOCTOR SARDONICUS should not be too far away at the jamstick, particularly if Tom Dascombe’s raider is given anything like an easy lead up front, whilst HYPERFOCUS looks a tad too big at 40/1 in a place this morning, despite his negative stall position.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame via twelve renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.

Chester record of seven course winners in the opening race:

2/5—El Astronaute (good & good to soft)

2/4—Sir Maximilian (2 x good)

1/6—Reflektor (good to soft)

2/4—Boundsy (2 x good)

2/5—Confessional (good to soft & soft)

3/13—Powerallied (2 x good & soft)

1/4—Bossipop (good to soft)

Draw factor (Five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

1-2-6 (9 ran-good)

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

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7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Dee Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event six times via the last eleven renewals in which the team has been represented and with strong candidates such as ROSTROPOVICH and KENYA this time around, Aidan looks sure to go close to extending his recent tally.  That said, MY LORD AND MASTER cannot be left out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 12 recent market leaders have reached the frame.  13 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

3.00: Ten of the last sixteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with TADLEEL and DRAGON’S TAIL (winner on the corresponding card last year) representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday.  TADLEEL hails from the Ed Dunlop stable which has won with three of its five three-year-old handicappers at Chester during the last five years.  Although Ed’s last seven runners have been beaten, four of them reached the frame (exact science) at 16/1, 14/1, 13/2 and 5/1, whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is an each way player today, despite an unfortunate draw.  Jim is one of the two jockeys which have ridden the Dark Angel colt to victory thus far.  If the weight trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, ANOTHER BATT could prove to be the joker in the pack and it’s worth noting that money was coming in for Silvestre’s mount as dawn broke over Bristol this morning.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in recent years, statistics which include seven winners.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (9 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)

1-7-4 (8 ran-good)

1-3 (7 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-10-2 (9 ran-good)

6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)

2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

12-6-5 (15 ran-good)

15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)

5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Dragon’s Tail (good)

 

3.35 ‘Ormonde Stakes’: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals (not represented on one occasion), though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence.  No trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute who has saddled the winner six times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992. That said, Michael is also on the missing list which leaves us eyeing up the prospect of another Aidan O’Brien winner in IDAHO who looks overpriced at the 11/8 quote in the trade press overnight. Indeed, favourite backers might be doing well to obtain 5/6 nearer flag fall, with MUNTAHAA seemingly the only horse standing in his way this afternoon.  The form of Idaho at the top level last year at his best would surely see the five-year-old home here with something to spare.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have rewarded investors during the last twenty years.  17 of the last 19 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.  ‘Only’ seven of the twelve market leaders in as many years have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.

Chester record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—Duretto (heavy)

1/1—Muntahaa (good)

 

4.05: Mick Channon has saddled eight of his 21 juvenile runners this season to winning effect and with ARCADIAN ROCKS having landed a trap one position, Mick’s Society Rock colt could improve the ratio still further.  YNYS MON is the obvious threat from what we have witnessed to date, especially as any jungle drums beating for newcomers have not reached my ears at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 22 favourites during the last 19 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).

Draw factor (five furlongs):

2-1 (7 ran-good)

9-3-12 (10 ran-good)

6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

3-5 (7 ran-soft)

5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-7-6 (8 ran-good)

3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

4.35: Eleven different trainers have saddled the winner of this race in recent years, though with the likes of CHRISTOPHER ROBIN, GHOSTWATCH and AUSTRIAN SCHOOL looking to have the race between them, the negative trainer factor is not really an issue.

Favourite factor: Two favourites (3/1 & 5/2) have won during the last eleven years, whilst nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2 during the study period.

Draw factor: (Twelve furlongs): With just eight runners going to post, this event should not be affected by the draw, especially as the horses mentioned in despatches should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

 

Record of the five course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:

1/2—Al Destoor (soft)

1/5—Dark Devil (heavy)

1/1—Never Surrender (good)

1/8—Fast Dancer (good to firm)

2/6—Berrahri (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 14th November

LINGFIELD - NOVEMBER 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.20 (6 favourites 5 winners & 1 unplaced

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 7 (Royalewhit), 6 (Oborne Lady) & 2 (Bullfrog)

Leg 2 (1.20): 7 (Jabulani) & 3 (Buckby Boy)

Leg 3 (1.50): 2 (Greyed A), 5 (Arden Denis) & 6 (Le Coeur Net)

Leg 4 (2.20): 7 (Amadeus Rox) & 1 (Capitoul)

Leg 5 (2.50): 1 (Creivehill), 5 (Un Prophete) & 7 (De Faoithesdream)

Leg 6 (3.20): 4 (Boyhood) & 2 (Gabrial The Great)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: The first thing to note is that some trainers (see the list at the foot of the column) have outstanding ratios at this venue, with Dan Skelton, Dr Richard Newland and Nigel Twiston-Davies standing out from the crowd.   The unusual aspect of this meeting is the fact that it starts with an NH flat race as opposed to other venues where such races are usually staged at the other end of the programme.  UPw3ards and onward by informing that four-year-olds lead the five-year olds 3-2 via just the five contests thus far, figures confirmed on the Placepot front by a ratio of 10-4.  OBORNE LADY has been the subject of some support overnight, whilst ROYALEWHIT and BULLFROG should figure prominently in a low grade affair.

Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via six renewals to date, statistics which include four winners.

 

1.20: With market leaders offering a good recent record in the race (particularly from a Placepot perspective), JABULANI appears to be the call here.  Nigel Twiston-Davies boasts a 28% strike rate at the track during the study period for good measure, a ratio which results from six winners.  Dan Skelton’s record is event better whereby the 16/1 alternative each way option about BUCKBY BOY is another route to go if you don’t like relying on favourites.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via eight contests during the last decade. All eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), whilst seven gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.

 

1.50: Dr Richard Newland was one of the names offered in dispatches in the opening event and with Richard Johnson having been booked aboard his representative GREYED A here, it’s hardly surprising that the six-year-old has been back overnight, almost right across the board it seems.  All four gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 11-8 and others who fit the weight trends with claims include ARDEN DENIS and LE COEUR NET.

Favourite factor: All four winners have scored at a top price of 3/1 thus far, with two of the four market leaders having prevailed.  That said, the two beaten favourites finished out of the money.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Greyed A (soft)

 

2.20: Two of the younger runners in the line up make most appeal here, namely AMADEUS ROX and CAPITOUL.  This is a race in which flat jockey try their hand on the other side of the sport whereby caution is the name of the game, certainly from a win perspective.  That said, the two named horses boast obvious Placepot claims, even in this ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: We had to wait until the seventh renewal for a successful favourite to be posted, albeit that four of the earlier winners scored at a top price of 9/2.  Four of the last seven favourites missed out on toteplacepot positions.

 

2.50: DE FAOITHESDREAM pops up every now and then and this is certainly his grade if in the mood to dominate from the front which he is capable of doing on a going day.  If not, the door will be left open for the likes of CREIVEHILL and UN PROPHETE to take full advantage.  The pair is listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 11/8 favourite made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 11/4 market leader.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Creivehill (heavy)

 

3.20: AWAY FOR SLATES has to overcome a twenty month break from the track, which should enable the likes of BOYHOOD and GABRIAL THE GREAT to dominate the business end of proceedings in a run of the mill Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 market leader snared a Placepot position finishing behind horses sent off at 7/1 and 6/1, before last year’s 5/4 favourite obliged.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Sirop De Menthe (heavy)

1/1—Molly Carew (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Tuesday – followed by 5 year stats & profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Gary Moore (9/94 – loss of 26 points)

4—Neil Mulholland (3/23 +26)

3—Zoe Davison (1/23 – loss of 17 points)

3—Tom George (0/4)

2—Kim Baley (0/4)

2—Alex Hales (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

2—Anthony Honeyball (3/9 +4)

2—Alan King (1/6 – loss of 1 point)

2—Emma Lavelle (2/9 +1)

2—Seamus Mullins (4/32 – loss of 15 points)

2—Dr Richard Newland (4/6 +4)

2—Richard Rowe (2/17 – loss of 5 points)

2—Dan Skelton (5/10 +15)

2—Suzi Smith (1/6 +3)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (6/21 +24)

2—Tim Vaughan (4/20 – loss of 7 points)

2—Lucy Wadham (3/10 +3)

2—Evan Williams (3/13 – Level profit/loss during the period)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: £6,529.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Worcester: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 25th October

NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £17.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 7 (High Seas) & 8 (Lady Al Thumama)

Leg 2 (1.45): 6 (Left Alone) & 5 (La Diva)

Leg 3 (2.20): 5 (Letsme Avenue), 6 (Episcia), 18 (Contribute) & 1 (Move To The Front)

Leg 4 (2.55): 7 (Elwazir), 10 (Key Victory) & 13 (Maypole)

Leg 5 (3.30): 10 (Clearly), 5 (Song Maker) & 11 (Dynamic)

Leg 6 (4.05): 2 (Bow Street), 6 (Talas) & 8 (Wild West Hero)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

*It should be noted that there are no previous course winners on the entire card at Newmarket today – lest you thought I had forgotten to include them in my column!

 

Newmarket (Five year study of this meeting):

37 races – 12 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £136.80

Highest dividend: £353.60 (2012) - Lowest dividend: £17.90 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—John Gosden (9/2, 4/1, 2/1, 8/13* & 2/5*) – 7 runners today:

Wild Impala (1.15), Timpani (1.45), Elsaakb (2.20), Burlington & Stylehunyer (2.55), Clearly (3.30) & Mythological (4.40)

 

1.15: Five of the six Placepot races are juvenile events, as are seven of the eight races on the card.  This makes for interesting racing, though aside from our favourite wager, perhaps any other wagers should be saved for another day though that said, the favourite stats (see below) are particularly impressive following five renewals of this opening event.  The fact that the first four races on the card are contested over the 'specialist seven furlong trip' adds to the intrigue.  Upwards and onward by adding that I am leaving my stats in the mix for this race because although the BHA deem this as a new contest, it is the same Class 5 event for juvenile fillies over seven furlongs as was ever the case, aside from its ‘new novice prefix’.  Twelve runners face the starter in this first division of the opening event, albeit only three entries have been taking seriously on the exchanges at time of writing.  I can only become involved from a Placepot perspective, whereby HIGH SEAS and LADY AL THUMAMA are taken ahead of Wild Impala from a value for money viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  The seven favourites to date have snared four gold medals and two of the bronze variety alongside toteplacepot positions.  The biggest priced winner thus far was returned at just 6/1.

 

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1.45:  LEFT ALONE and (to a fashion) LA DIVA are the only horses being backed overnight and it would seem churlish to ignore their claims in a race which should not prove difficult to win, especially by Newmarket standards.

Favourite factor:  This is the second division of the opening event on the Newmarket card whereby the same stats apply, whatever the BHA might suggest. Leave it Mal – leave it!

 

2.20: Horses carrying nine stones or more have secured the four contests at 9/1-8/1-8/1-15/8* to date, statistics which potentially eliminate seven horses in the field.  Last year’s 9/1 winner (Tap Tap Boom) was short listed and hopefully included is this year’s gold medallist, my trio against the remaining 17 runners consisting of LETSBE AVENUE, EPISCIA and CONTRIBUTE.  Martin Meade saddles the latter named raider, with the trainer boasting 2/7 stats here on the Rowley Mile this season, winners which have produced level stake profits of 53 points.  I have included Martin’s representative even though his Bahamian Bounty gelding hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap. The reserve nomination is awarded to Clive Cox’s hat trick seeker MOVE TO THE FRONT, especially with Clive having ended a (rare) extended run of losers yesterday when celebrating a 9/1 success, a price which is still available with a few firms relating to his Lord Shankill colt.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (winner at 15/8) has secured a Placepot positions thus far.

 

2.55: I won’t waste your time or mine, suffice to say that this is (supposedly) a new race but as nothing has changed aside for its name, I have left the updated stats in place.  That said, I have to confirm that this is my stance and not necessarily the opinion of ‘geegeez’. Upwards and onward by informing that Roger Varian saddled last year’s winner whereby his newcomer Masaarr will be watched with an eye to the future though from a Placepot perspective at the very least, ELWAZIR and Charlie Appleby’s Teofilo newcomer KEY VICTORY should figure prominently though once again, no money could be prized from my wallet relating to naming the winner of the contest.  That said, Bet365 are arguably too big at 11/1 about John Gosden’s Raven’s Pass debutant STYLEHUNTER, though the declaration of MAYPOLE (eye catching fourth at Goodwood on his first day at school) also suggests that the first named pair might not have things going all their own way in an intriguing event.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though we had to wait until 2015 for the first successful market leader to be recorded.  Five of the nine favourites have finished in the frame.

 

3.30: Although three-year-olds lead the four-year-old 3-2 from a win perspective to date, the older raiders edge the Placepot stats 8-7.  The only potential four-year-old in the field has been withdrawn whereby I will home in on the nine junior raiders. You will have noted the additional information about this meeting just before the race by race analysis which suggested that John Gosden was the trainer to behold and the popular handler might snare this prize with CLEARLY who looked a highly promising individual before her last effort whereby ‘headgear’ has been added into the equation this time around.  If the ‘aid’ does not work the oracle, SONG MAKER and DYNAMIC are taken as the main potential beneficiaries, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame via five renewals to date.  We still await the first successful favourites, whilst four of the five winners have scored at a top price of 15/2, the event having been secured by a 20/1 chance.

 

4.05: Yet another of the ‘novice’ races, whereby you will know the stance I have adopted against the powers that be! 13 renewals had slipped by the since the previous successful favourite before the 2015 market leader obliged, though the race reverted to type twelve months ago when the favourite was beaten, albeit a Placepot position was secured.  Cracksman won the contest last year though unfortunately, John Gosden does not have a representative this time around.  BOW STREET could monopolise the contest (apologies for that play on words), though newcomers TALAS and WILD WEST HERO are not eliminated from my thoughts as six o’clock strikes up this morning in the east wing of the Boyle estate.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last eighteen renewals whilst 13 of the 19 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

9 runners—Richard Hannon (5/48 – loss of 17 points)

7—John Gosden (11/52 +20)

5—Stuart Williams (0/10)

4—Charlie Appleby (13/33 (+27)

4—Ed Dunlop (0/18)

4—Roger Varian (5/29 +11)

3—Michael Appleby (1/14 – loss of 4 points)

3—Andrew Balding (5/33 – loss of 11 points)

3—Clive Cox (0/7)

3—Harry Dunlop (0/1)

3—Richard Fahey (2/30 – loss of 15 points)

3—William Haggas (3/30 – loss of 11 points)

3—Phil McBride (0/7)

3—Martin Meade (2/7 +53)

2—Robyn Brisland (0/1)

2—Tom Dascombe (2/9 – slight loss)

2—Charlie Fellowes (1/13 +2)

2—Charlie Hills (3/36 – loss of 36 points)

2—Mark Johnston (4/48 – loss of 16 points)

2—William Knight (0/5)

2—Hugo Palmer (1/26 – loss of 5 points)

2—John Ryan (1/11 – level on the year)

2—David Simcock (0/13)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/30 – loss of 12 points)

2—Mark Tompkins (No previous runners)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: The is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Worcester: £284.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Kempton (A/W): £116.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 25th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.20 Exeter :  Eddy @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 2/1 : Held up mid-division, headway before 3 out, soon every chance, ridden and pressed winner before last, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a length...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

2.45 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 3, 5yo+ novices handicap chase contest over 2m7f on good ground...

...featuring a 6 yr old grey gelding who returned from a 21-week absence to finish as a runner-up on his chase debut LTO 19 days ago. He was only beaten by two lengths behind a former Gr1 hurdle winner rated at 143! Prior to this chasing bow, our boy had never been out of the frame in 7 NHF/Hurdle contests finishing 3113211 and to date he is...

  • 3 wins and a place from 6 on good ground
  • 4 wins and a place from 5 under jockey Harry Bannister
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 this year
  • 1 from 1 in a handicap
  • 1 from 1 at Class 3

Other reasons to back this one include...

1. Being trained by Charlie Mann whose horses are bang in form right now with 4 winners & 3 placers from his last 9 runners (10121P122) over the last couple of weeks or so and this is his only runner of the day. Since 2011, when having just one runner per day, Charlie is 73/455 (16% SR) for 140.6pts (+30.9% ROI)

2. Charlie's Class 3 to 5 handicappers with just one other run in the previous 90 days are 25/139 (18%) for 72pts (+51.8% ROI) since the start of 2010.

3. The Charlie Mann / Harry Bannister partnership is good for 24 winners from 94 efforts (25.5% SR) for 55.9pts (+59.4% ROI), from which...

  • in handicaps : 18/71 (25.4%) for 54.9pts (+77.3%)
  • in chases : 10/47 (21.3%) for 36pts (+76.6%)
  • and in hcp chases : 10/44 (22.7%) for 39pts (+88.7%)

4. Pickamix was sired by Sagamix, whose offspring are 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 33.1pts (+87.2% ROI) when priced at 15/2 or shorter since the start of 2015 including...

  • males at 14/25 956%) for 35.7pts (+142.8%)
  • in handicaps : 5/11 (45.5%) for 20.3pts (+184.2%)
  • over 2m5f to 3m : 3/9 (33.3%) for 8pts (+88.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/2 (100%) for 9.37pts (+468.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG, which was available from Betvictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.55pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 17th October

LEICESTER - OCTOBER 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £42.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Bold Reason), 4 (Faadhel) & 2 (Bombyx)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Sans Souc1 Bay) & 2 (Oakley Pride)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Sir Dancealot) & 4 (Emmaus)

Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (MIrza), 5 (Vibrant Clouds) & 9 (Soie D’Leau)

Leg 5 (4.00): 5 (George Viilliers) & 10 (Prime Minister)

Leg 6 (4.30): 5 (Puramente), 6 (Mr Carbonator) & 1 (Dream Of Delphi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Plenty of leading stables are represented here with BOLD REASON (John Gosden), BOMBYX (James Fanshawe) and FAADHEL representing Roger Varian.  The overnight market (written at five o’clock this morning) tells us very little, other than the fact that Sir Michael Stoute’s raider Whitehall is particularly easy to back though that said, there is precious little money around for any of his nine rivals either.

Favourite factor: Regular readers will know the score as this event has been deemed a new (novice) race by the BHA.  The same scenario has been in place for many years, a one mile (Class 4) juvenile event, whereby I will let you be the judge of whether you want to take note of the following stats. The last ten winners have scored at a top price of 11/2, statistics which include six successful market leaders.  Eight of the ten favourites during the study period secured toteplacepot positions, give that last year’s market leader was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

 

2.30: In a selling event confined to three and four-year-old runners, junior raiders have secured the last six contests, with SANS SOUCI BAY likely to go off a warm favourite this time around.  That said, there is not a great deal of confidence at the time writing in terms of market moves, either for the favourite on any of nine of the other ten remaining runners, the exception being OAKLEY PRIDE who appears to have attracted win and place money at double figure prices.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, with five market leaders winning their respective events.  That last stat did not include the beaten 2/7 market leader four years ago.

 

3.00: Although trends are at an early stage in this event, three-year-olds have won two of three renewals thus far via just 28% of the total number of runners (7/25), whilst all three gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 9-2.  The only contender boasting ticks in both boxes this year is SIR DANCEALOT, though six assignments have slipped by since his last success was recorded.  That said, Ryan Moore is back aboard for the first time since David Elsworth’s Sir Prancealot gelding was made favourite for the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood when problems at the start ruined whatever chance he might have had on the day.  Unless another problem ensues, it’s highly likely that Ryan’s mount will at least finish in the frame, though course and distance winner EMMAUS also attracts the eye as the only Leicester winner in the field, particularly as similar good to soft conditions are likely to be in place.

Favourite factor: One of the three favourites has claimed a Placepot position thus far without winning the respective event.

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Record of course winners in the third event on the card:

1/1—Emmaus (good to soft)

 

3.30: MIRZA returns to defend his crown, albeit off a two pound higher mark, whilst expecting to contest this event on a much slower surface this time around. That said, trainer Rae Guest sent out a winner recently and his Placepot chance cannot be dismissed at around the 8/1 mark at the time of writing. VIBRANT CHORDS is all the rage overnight and with Ryan Moore having won on two of just five rides for Henry Candy this term, I doubt the support will stop at 5/2 which is still available in a place or two.  Seven time winner Soie D’Leau also fits the bill from a Placepot perspective, albeit the ground will not be as soft as when the Monsieur Bond raider registered his victory on his only previous visit to Leicester.  That said, the sire’s stock still run well enough if there is any moisture in the turf at all whereby Tony Hamilton’s mount enters the equation.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have finished in the money via two renewals of this event, albeit we await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Mirza (good to firm)

1/1—Soie D’Leau (heavy)

 

4.00: This race commemorates the great name of Reference Point who won both the Epsom Derby and the St Leger in 1987, before (arguably) an abscess robbed him of the chance of victory in the ‘Arc’ later in the year (ran but failed to win).  I doubt there is a horse of half the quality in this line up but upwards and onward in positive fashion by suggesting that John Gosden could achieve a hat trick having declared GEORGE VILLIERS on this occasion. John’s last two winners have only won one of their thirteen subsequent events between them however, whereby I would not get too carried away with a success if that scenario evolves this afternoon.   The withdrawal of Breath Caught has taken a lot of the interest away from the contest, albeit PRIME MINISTER ran well enough when finishing second on his first day at school, albeit Yarmouth form is not the strongest in the country by any means.  Monet has only been conspicuous by its absence for Ostilio at the time of writing, whereby the jury is still out relating to Simon Crisford’s newcomer.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 21 contests, whilst 17 recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions via 21 ‘divisions’ of late.

 

4.30: Richard Hannon has left the door open to other trainers having won two of the three renewals to date (Richard saddled the bronze medallist twelve months ago) and if overnight support is anything to go by, it looks as though Jo Hughes (PURAMENTE) and Phil Kirby (MR CARBONATOR) are the most likely beneficiaries.  If we add DREAM OF DELPHI into the mix (visored for the first time) we should land the dividend, presuming we have reached the last leg of our favourite wager ‘intact’.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have finished second when securing Placepot positions thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Tuesday followed by their ratios at the track + level profit/losses accrued:

4 runners—David Evans (5/26 +2)

4—Richard Hannon (5/36 – loss of 12 positions)

4—Mark Johnston (11/29 +17)

4—Roger Varian (2/11 – loss of 7 points)

3—John Gosden (2/11 – loss of 6 points)

2—Andrew Balding (2/14 – loss of 3 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (1/11 – loss of 7 points)

2—Milton Bradley (0/1)

2—Henry Candy (1/4 – loss of 1 point)

2—Robert Cowell (1/3 +4)

2—James Fanshawe (2/11 +18)

2—Charlie Fellowes (0/2)

2—Phil Kirby (0/4)

2—Sylvester Kirk (1/7 – loss of 2 points)

2—Gary Moore (No previous runners this season)

2—Lydia Pearce (0/1)

2—John Patrick Shanahan (7/26 +26)

2—James Tate (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

2—Ed Walker (0/6)

+ 43 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

90 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hereford: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Huntingdon: £130.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday October 12

EXETER - OCTOBER 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £292.90 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (If The Cap) & 4 (Enniscoffee Oscar)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Challico) & 3 (Good Man Pat)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Hidden Cargo), 3 (Steely Addition) & 8 (Greyed A)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Barton Rose), 8 (Third Act) & 4 (Triple Chief)

Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Wotzizname) & 2 (Coastal Tiep)

Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Minella Treasure), 1 (Chantecler) & 4 (Kings Temptation)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Although the average Placepot dividend for this meeting during the last five years stands at £1,856.50, a return of the thick end of £9K in 2012 was responsible for the impressive figure.  The subsequent four corresponding meetings offer an average of just £93.50 which is more like the usual return at this venue.  Upwards and onward by informing that four-year-olds have won seven renewals during the last fourteen years, with last year’s lone vintage representative scoring at 5/4.  That said, the only one of the three relevant entries this time looking as though it has any chance at all is Golden Sunrise.  Unfortunately for trainer Colin Tizzard and his connections, the likes of IF THE CAP FITS and ENNISCOFFEE OSCAR have been declared and whilst I normally side with the way the trends point towards, this pair look to have the opening event between them.  I will have a very small stake on the Tizzzard raider as cover for my Placepot bet at the 12/1 offer at the time of writing; just in case!  Enniscoffey Oscar represents Emma Lavelle who is the leading trainer at this corresponding meeting during the last five years and it’s worth noting that her Oscar gelding was her only entry for this fixture last weekend.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 18 favourites have won this event, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period (before the 40/1 shock gold medallist in 2012) was returned at just 100/30.

 

2.45: Heat two of the opening event gives us a chance to support four-year-old GOOD MAN PAT from a Placepot perspective at least, albeit CHALLICO might prove to be a tough nut to crack.  The Paul Nicholls raider (Challico) is asked to travel an additional 300 yards (thankfully as we deal in furlongs I can still use ‘yards’) but that should not prove to be too difficult unless Paul’s recent inmate fails to cope with softer conditions.  Master Work looks booked for third spot on debut.  Good Man Pat represents Alan King whose only two winners at this meeting during the last five years came on the same day three years ago when the trainer snared a 25/1 double.  For the record, Alan has two entries on today’s card.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event, whereby the same stats apply; 14 of the last 18 favourites have won this event, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period (before the 40/1 shock gold medallist in 2012) was returned at just 100/30.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Challico (good to firm)

 

3.15: I mentioned Alan King at the end of my analysis on the second race and his other runner on the card today is HIDDEN CARGO who contests this event, with the trainer having secured gold and silver medals with his only two previous runners in the race.  Every single one of the 18 bookmakers who had priced this race up at the time of writing has Alan’s Stowaway gelding in at 7/2 behind STEELY ADDITION in the market.  Both of these runners should finish in the Placepot mix, though I’m tempted to include Richard Newland’s GREYED A, despite the fact that his Lingfield win last term was gained under soft conditions.  There will certainly be worse 18/1 chances on the card from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: The two previous market leaders had secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions before last year’s 6/4 favourites finished second in a ‘win only’ contest.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

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3/10—Thundering Home (good – good to soft – heavy)

1/3—Trans Express (soft)

 

3.45: BARTON ROSE ‘splits the books’ in the dead of night with odds on offer ranging between 11/4 and 4/1, though that can occur when a relatively unknown claimer has been booked to ride.  The relevant pilot has ridden four winners (10% strike rate), whilst it’s also worth pointing out that Charlie Longsdon’s runners have just gone off the boil of late, with his last 18 runners having failed to score, eleven of which started at a top price of 5/1, stats which include five beaten favourites.  Where else can you read this nonsense?  I’ve written over 10,000 columns during the past seventeen years and as you are still reading today’s offering, I guess that the stats and facts meet with your approval!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that THIRD ACT and TRIPLE CHIEF represent superior value for money than Dr Medic whose 7/2 odds fail to light my ‘blue touch paper’.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—Triple Chief (soft)

1/2—Seven Kingdoms (good to firm)

1/3—Third Act (soft)

 

4.20: Six-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals of this event, though Pomme looks to have her work cut here with WOTZIZNAME and COASTEL TIEP having been declared to run, albeit in four runner race in which subsequent results sometimes fail to go to plan.  Harry Fry (WOTZIZNAME) takes on his old mentor Paul Nicholls (COASTAL TIEP) here, with Harry boasting a 32% strike rate under both codes since the end of April via 14 winners.  Paul also has his runners in form (33/91 during the same period) and we could be set for a battle royal between this pair up the home straight.  Let’s hope for an error free contest and may the best horse (on the day) gain the spoils.  WOTZIZNAME gained some valuable experience over fences last year in a Class 3 event at Aintree which might just make the difference between these two exciting recruits to the discipline.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (85/40 & 4/7).

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Wotzizname (good to soft)

 

4.50: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of this handicap hurdle for novices, with MINELLA TREASURE looking much the stronger of the two vintage representatives this time around.  I become irritated with sentences (like in today’s trade press ‘Verdict’) when they say that a trainer (Ben Case in this instance) has his runners going well, without clarifying just how well, if you follow my drift.  It comes under the same heading (from my viewpoint) as the draw scenario in races when it is suggested by media types that the draw only comes into effect if the pace in the race is relevant on one side of the track or the other.  This was beautifully demonstrated the other week in the Cambridgeshire when I insisted that a high number was best and despite almost racing alone in the closing stages, the 50/1 winner scored from stall 29/34.  Out of interest, the runner up was second at 100/1 from stall 22.  Returning to this event, Ben Case has won with two of his last 13 runners which is a reasonable return, but why not just quote actual figures rather than take the ‘lazy route’ which fails to offer readers actual facts.  I have never suggested that my stats and facts are bombproof, but at least on the majority of occasions you are left in no doubt as what the actuals ratio are at the time of writing.  Rant over, suggesting that Ben’s raider KINGS TEMPTATION should become involved at the business end of proceedings, arguably alongside CHANTECLER who represents trainer Neil Mulholland.  Neill saddled the winner of this race three years ago (‘coincidently’ with a six-year-old), one of his two winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one successful 11/4 (joint) favourite.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Sue Gardner (12/96 – loss of 25 points)

3—Nigel Hawke (5/66 – loss of 39 points)

3—Martin Keighley (2/30 – loss of 24 points)

3—Neil Mulholland (5/54 – loss of 36 points)

3—Paul Nicholls (36/117 – loss of 26 points)

3—David Pipe (23/122 – loss of 49 points)

3—Colin Tizzard (16/129 – loss of 60 points)

2—Kim Bailey (2/46 – loss of 34 points)

2—Robin Dickin (1/9 – loss of 2 points)

2—Richenda Ford (0/9)

2—Harry Fry (24/60 +44)

2—Carroll Gray (1/25 – loss of 15 points)

2—Grace Harris (0/7)

2—Philip Hobbs (39/187 – loss of 34 points)

2—Alan King (16/78 – loss of 9 points)

2—Charlie Longsdon (3/16 +6)

2—Richard Mitchell (3/15 +32)

2—Helen Nelmes (0/25)

2—Katie Stephens (0/11)

2—Nick Williams (4/35 – loss of 18 points)

2—Richard Woolacott (3/78 – loss of 50 points)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

80 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £186.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Chelmsford: £10.70 – 8 favourites – 4 winner – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.10 Towcester : Sailors Warn @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 : Jumped left and not always fluent, in rear, headway when blundered badly 3 out, no chance after, went 3rd close home...

Thursday's selection goes in the...

2.20 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Get Ready Freddy @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m0.5f on good ground...

...where this 7 yr old gelding will attempt to continue a rich vein of form that has seen him finish 141221 in his last six outings (14121 over fences), having won at Uttoxeter last time out, 18 days ago.

In six efforts in chase contests, he has achieved the following...

  • 3/5 at 2m to 2m1f
  • 2/3 since moving to Dan Skelton's yard
  • 2/3 under jockey Harry Skelton
  • 2/3 going left handed
  • 2/3 wearing a tongue tie
  • 1/1 here at Worcester
  • 1/1 over course and distance

The Skelton partnership is, of course also something to consider as when Dan & Harry have previously teamed up in Class 4/5 handicap chases, they have 43 winners from 140 (30.7% SR) for profits of 42.9pts at a decent ROI of 30.6%, from which...

  • male runners are 40/127 (31.5%) for 44.4pts (+34.9%)
  • on Good ground : 27/82 (32.9%) for 22.2pts (+27.1%)
  • in the August to December period : 21/66 (31.8%) for 39.4pts (+59.8%)
  • over trips of 2m to 2m1.5f : 15/43 (34.9%) for 24pts (+55.9%)
  • in 2017: 12/39 (30.8%) for 14.7pts (+37.6%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 12/24 (50%) for 27.3pts (+113.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Get Ready Freddy @ 5/2 BOG, which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 29th September

NEWMARKET - SEPTEMBER 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £85.10 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Muffri’Ha), 8 (On Her Toes) & 1 (Lincoln Rocks)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (To Eternity), 5 (Elas Ruby) & 1 (Elbereth)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Gavota), 9 (Nyaleti) & 8 (Lightening Quick)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Beat The Bank) & 8 (Sir John Lavery)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Coat Of Arms) & 13 (Thrave)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Frontiersman), 7 (Best Of Days) & 3 (Red Galileo)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-2, albeit via just six renewals which have been contested thus far.  William Haggas has saddled four winners on this corresponding day during the last five years and the trainer appears to have quite a strong hand here having declared MUFFRI’HA and ON HER TOES. Both horses have won under the projected (good to soft) conditions and from a Placepot perspective at the very least, this pair are the first names on Friday’s team sheet.  David O’Meara is slowly but surely getting his act back together following a very ordinary year by his high standards.  That said, LINCOLN ROCKS has been one of his more consistent performers and as another good to soft winner in the line up, David’s top weight is expected to give win and place investors a decent run for their collective monies.

Favourite factor:  Four of the seven favourites (we still await the first winner) have secured Placepot positions to date.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

2/6—Muffri’Ha (good & good to firm)

 

2.25: Sir Michael Stoute has secured two of the last seven renewals though the yielding ground conditions are (seemingly) against his projected market leader Mori on this occasion.  I prefer John Gosden’s pair TO ETERNITY and ELAS RUBY, with John seeking a hat trick in the race.  Two of Andrew Balding’s last three runners won yesterday and I would not dismiss the each way chance of ELBERETH in a wide open contest, despite what the projected starting prices are implying.

Favourite factor:  Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last six renewals, make that seven of the last eleven if you want to delve back into the past a little further. During that time, ten of the eleven gold medallists scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst eleven of the last twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.00: Some big investors are still licking their wounds following the defeat of Fair Eva in this contest twelve months ago, though with bookmakers likely to offer 3/1 field this time around, not too many scars should be in evidence the other side of the weekend.  Three unbeaten fillies are among the ten declarations, the pick of which should prove to be GAVOTA and LIGHTENING QUICK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  Mark Johnston improved his Newmarket ratio yesterday and having declared his tough Arch filly NYALETI, there is a chance that Mark could treble the tally that stood place in place on the Rowley Mile course this season before the three day fixture started.

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Favourite factor: Although only one favourite has scored via the last ten renewals (including the demise of last year’s 4/9 jolly), six of the last eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.  Nine of the last eleven winners have scored at 11/1 or less.

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last nineteen renewals of this Group 3 contest, though vintage representatives have not covered themselves in glory in recent times.  BEAT THE BANK and SIR JOHN LAVERY have decent chances of helping the race to ‘return to type’, with both sets of connections appreciating the softening conditions at Newmarket these last few days.  Indeed, rain is set to fall during the day which will particularly support the chance of Aidan O’Brien’s latter named Galileo colt.  This pair will represent yours truly, though I’ll offer a word of encouragement about outsider Whisky Baron who could outrun his odds.  Making his British debut having completed a five-timer eight months ago, lack of race fitness might be more of an issue than the rivals he meets here, given that connections have targeted a Group 2 event which is not the strongest of contests from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, though just three of the other 16 market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/5—Custom Cut (good)

1/1—Beat The Bank (good to soft)

1/2—Whitecliffsofdover (good to firm)

 

4.10: It’s not all that often that Aidan O’Brien targets juvenile maiden events at this three day meeting, much preferring to let his established runners do the talking on behalf of the yard, especially with so much prize money on offer.  Aidan has declared his well exposed Galileo colt COAT OF ARMS on this occasion and with a lack of ‘jungle dreams’ beating for any of the newcomers, Aidan’s (very late) May foal should prove to be the horse to beat.  THRAVE did precious little wrong on his first day at school on the other playground in this part of the country, whereby Henry Candy’s Sir Percy colt could repeat his silver medal debut performance on the July course.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have obliged during the last twelve years, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

 

4.45: Although the ground is something of a worry regarding the three Godolphin runners who are trying to win ‘their own race’ between them, it would be churlish in the extreme to cast their chances aside.  Of the three, RED GALILEO possibly offers the best value, given his half decent efforts on good to soft ground to date.  That said, FRONTIERSMAN and BEST OF DAYS look to be a class apart if conditions remain reasonable, both having won at this meeting twelve months ago.

Favourite factor:

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Frontiersman (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Best Of Days (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Friday with their number of winners on the corresponding card during the last five years:

5 runners—William Haggas (4 winners)

4—Ralph Beckett (1)

4—Ed Dunlop

4—Aidan O’Brien (1)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (1)

3—Andrew Balding

3—Luca Cumani

3—David Elsworth (1)

3—James Fanshawe (1)

3—John Gosden (8)

3—Charlie Hills (1)

3—David O’Meara (2)

3—Hugo Palmer (1)

3—Roger Varian (1)

2—Michael Bell

2—Henry Candy

2—Charlie Fellowes

2—John Ryan

+ 28 trainers with one runner

84 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £37.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Worcester: £30.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: £463.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced