Apologies for the later than usual posting of the daily column, but I've been away all day on a training course and didn't get home until after 9pm!
But the show must go on and with that in mind, Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 4.35 Tipperary
- 4.42 Musselburgh
- 7.00 Bath
- 7.35 Bath
- 7.45 Tipperary
My own personal settings for the TS report...
...have generated quite a few runners to consider...
...and with Ben Pauling's horses not only being in fine form of late, but also having a good course record over the past year, it seems right to look at his two runners above. Mole Court looks the standout runner in a mediocre Class 5 chase and is already priced accordingly (as low as 13/8), so let's focus on stablemate Gentleman Valley who goes an hour in a better looking looking contest. The 4.23 Worcester is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m7f on good ground, although a 141 yard rail movement takes it beyond 2m7½f (2m7.64f to be more precise!)...
Not only is our featured horse, Gentleman Valley the only LTO winner, he actually comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Warwick and Market Rasen in the last seven weeks or so, but he's now up a class, as are Go Chique, Mr Tambourine Man and bottom weight Court Master.
Go Chique was a runner-up LTO and has won two of her last four and Mr Tambourine Man is two from five, but Irish Prophecy, Polish and Nevilles Cross are winless in seven, ten and seven races respectively, inlcuding several incomplete runs.
Mr Tambourine Man races for the first time since wind surgery and Nevilles Cross wears a first-time visor, whilst the sole mare in the race, Go Chique hasn't raced in over seven months and might well need the run.
None of these have won here at Worcester before and although the card says five of them have won at a similar trip, Instant Expert says only three have won over hurdles at this kind of distance...
...and Gentleman Valley looks the best of a fairly poor set of numbers. Polish's 0 from 6 at the trip raises immediate questions, of course and further analysis shows that he has only made the frame in one of the six races...
In fairness, off a small sample size of races, most of these look like they'd be well suited/placed to make the frame, but you'd still have to say that Gentleman Valley was the one to beat so far on both recent form and overall form as above.
We've no draw to worry about of course, so let's move swiftly on to the pace data for similar past races and our Pace Analyser is fairly clear about what type of horse would go well here...
Prominent horses and leaders make the frame most often and half of those placers then go on to win, so ideally we'll be picking a horse in the upper reaches of the following pace profiles, based on the field's most recent outings...
Feature horse Gentleman Valley sits at mid-point and would be advised to run prominently like he did last out, but there could quite well be some early pace on and that might be too much for Go Chique after a lengthy lay-off.
Summary
Based on the above, it's the featured horse Gentleman Valley for me. He isn't quite as high on the pace chart as I'd like, but did win from a prominent position last time out. He's in great recent form and scored well on Instant Expert and his yard are in good nick and have done well here at Worcester over the last year. Fortunately me going to post around 5 or 6 hours later than usual hasn't affected the price, he opened at 5/2 and that's still available and also the price I think he should be.
As for next best, I'm not sure about the fav Polish at 9/4 from a hold-up position, so maybe Go Chique might hang on for a place.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
