Racing Insights, Tuesday 22/08/23 geegeez.co.uk

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

4.00 Newton Abbot
6.00 Worcester
7.00 Worcester

Both Worcester races feature on The Shortlist above and I think I'll have a look at Peregrine Run in the 6.00 Worcester, a 12-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m7f on good ground...

Brief Times arrives here on a hat-trick and is thwe only LTO winner on the pack, although Courtland has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Featured horse Peregrine Run carries top weight here and he has two wins and a place from his last four whilst Hell Red, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans & The Vollan have all won once in five.

Only four (Peregrine Run, Ruthless Article, Hell Red & Eritage) of these raced at this grade last time out as Brief Times, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans, Organdi and The Vollan all step up a level from Class 3 and bottom weight Gats and Co is up two classes whilst Killer Clown and Courtland both ran at Class 1 a month ago in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen where the former was pulled up whilst the latter was the runner-up beaten by just three quarters of a length having conceded 13lbs to the winner who has since won again.

Peregrine Run won this race last year (but is now 9lbs higher) making him the only course and distance winner in the field, although Saint Arvans, The Vollan and Gats And Co have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst Courtland (2 x 2m4½f chases) and The Vollan (2m4f hurdle) have both won on this track.

We've no new headgear on show, no horses moving yard and all bar The Vollan have had a run in the last 16 to 35 days, but The Vollan hasn't been seen since being pulled up at Market Rasen on Boxing Day last year and can be excused if he needs the run.

In terms of previous chase outings under similar conditions, Instant Expert suggests that most will be well suited by the good ground...

...although Killer Clown, Ruthless Article and Organdi are a pretty poor 3 from 29 between on the going. As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Peregrine Run has the best figures under these conditions but it has to be said that apart from the odd decent run here and there, he's not the horse he was in 2018/19 when winning Listed & Grade 3 contests. Mind you, he is 13 now and time isn't his friend.

Killer Clown and Organdi's record over this kind of trip is as bad as their records on good ground and it's time to remove that pair from my calculations, even if the former has landed a couple of Class 2 chases.

If I think Peregrine Run's star is on the wane, but he has the best figures, it's probably worth looking at the place stats for the ten remaining runners to see who might emerge as a contender...

Again, Peregrine Run's numbers are excellent, but the one looking like the one to beat so far is Courtland. Aside from being unexposed in this grade, conditions look ideal for him and he's 3 from 5 under today's jockey, although he is a whopping 12lbs heavier than his last win and 6lbs heavier than his Class 1 near-miss last time out.

He tends to race prominently, but will probably have to tuck in behind expected pace-maker Gats And Co, if the field's last four outings are anything to go by...

...whilst The Vollan and Go On Chez seem destined to be held up for a late run, a tactic which hasn't really been that successful in past races here at Worcester...

Summary

The pace scores suggest that Gats And Co will lead in a race that suits leaders, but I feel he's going to be more a pace-maker/target for the runners just in behind him rather than being a serious contender himself.

He won four chases on the bounce (but is only 4 from 19 in his career) in Feb to June of 2022 taking his mark from 92 to 125 and hasn't looked remotely like winning any of eight races since and with him being some 9lbs wrong at the weights here, I predict a ninth successive loss.

That, of course, opens the door to those racing closest to him, of which the pick has to be Courtland. He comes here in terrific form and was only narrowly beaten at a higher grade last time out. His Instant Expert scores were good and he has a brilliant relationship with today's jockey. 4/1 isn't overly generous, but it's probably about right, so it's Courtland for me here.

Of the others, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 7/1 Hell Red and the 9/2 Brief Times go well, whilst others in with a shout of making the frame (bookies go 4 places) would include (alphabetically) Peregrine Run and Saint Arvans.

Go On Chez is the current 4/1 jt fav along with Courtland, but he was beaten by Brief Times last time out and both face tougher tasks here.

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