Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 28/06/23

Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

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  • 1.58 Worcester
  • 3.28 Worcester
  • 4.28 Worcester
  • 5.30 Naas
  • 7.00 Naas
  • 7.20 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

Both my TS qualifiers list and the selection of 'free' races are heavily Worcester-oriented, so we'll go there for the highest rated contest on the card, the 4.28 Worcester, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f on good ground...

Plenty of these have some good results in their more recent form line; Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge both won last time out, whilst Clear The Runway is 5 from 7, 6 from 9 and 7 from 11! Accidental Rebel is 4 from 6, Solo Saxophone is 2 from 5 and Finisk River has won four of his last six. Merry Berry is 4 from 5 and Jamacho is 3 from 5, 4 from 8 and 5 from 10. Conversely Luttrell Lad is winless in his last dozen outings and Celestial Horizon has lost his last eight, beating just nine runners across those races in which he failed complete four times!

Those two on the cold list are amongst just four runners (with Clear The Runway & Eritage) who ran at this grade last time out, as Solo Saxophone, Finisk River, Merry Berry and Jamacho all step up from Class 3, whilst our two LTO winners, Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge are up from Class 4 here. Accidental Rebel, however, drops down from a heavy defeat in a Group 2 race at Kelso back in March, although he did win in that grade two starts ago.

He hasn't raced for 116 days now and whilst he might well need the run, he hasn't been away as long as the likes of Finisk River, Eritage and Merry Berry, whose layoffs are 214, 312 and 382 days respectively. This quartet aside, the field have all raced in the last six weeks and this will be Everyonesgame's handicap debut after Class 4 wins in a maiden and a novice event in April & May of this year.

Luttrell Lad has already won here at Worcester in a 2m hurdle, Jamacho has won over hurdles twice here at 2m½f, whilst Clear The Runway landed a Class 2, 2m1f chase here back in October. He has also won over today's trip elsewhere, as have Eritage, Everyonesgame and Merry Berry, whilst Accidental Rebel, Solo Saxophone and Finisk River have all scored over track and trip, leaving just Celestial Horizon and Galata Bridge to have won neither!

Instant Expert says the entire field have at least one good ground hurdle/bumper win to their names and that two of them have already won at Class 2. We already know that Accidental Rebel is a former Class 1 winner, but so is Celestial Horizon...

Solo Saxophone and Accidental Rebel look well suited here with the latter really coming to the fore in handicap hurdles...

...but he is 10lbs higher than his last win, which could prove problematical and three of his four career wins have been at Class 4.

The recent pace profiles for this field are interesting, as it looks like we might well have four of them battling it out for the lead, whilst the rest sit off and watch until later...

Merry Berry likes good ground and has a decent record over this trip, so if this track/trip suits front-runners, then she might well be in luck. And having consulted our Pace Analyser...

...that leading quartet are likely to be of great interest.

Summary

Before I looked closely at the race, I liked Galata Bridge. Good ground suits him, he gets on well with today's jockey and he won nicely last time out, but he's up in weight, trip and class here, so I'll be leaving him alone. If Accidental Rebel runs like two starts ago and not like LTO, then he'd be difficult to beat, but at a best price of 5/1, there's not much value there for me and the same applies to the 6/1 offered about Merry Berry. She's suited by going, trip and pace, but I'd want to back her E/W and 6's are a bit short for that purpose.

Should the mare drift, then she'd be a valid E/W proposition, but until then I think Solo Saxophone is the one to do that. He has good numbers across Instant Expert, will be up with the pace and was sharpened up on the Flat recently. He'd need plenty of luck to win this, but at 11/1 is a solid E/W chance.

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