Tix Picks

Tix Picks, 15/11/24

A nice win for Chris with Thursday's Tix play at Chelmsford, and there's plenty to go at today, Friday, with racing from Cheltenham's November meeting, as well as Newcastle, Punchestown and Southwell over jumps, and Wolverhampton and Dundalk this evening on the sand.

If you're new around here, it's worth taking a moment to familiarise with the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

Your first 30 days for just £1

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £200,000 guarantee at Cheltenham...

 

 

It's an unsurprisingly challenging six-legger at Chelto but with the big guarantee it's well worth a dart or two, starting at...

1.10 Cheltenham

We start with a big field handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, and it could well be an early bath! There are two runners, Double Powerful and Plaisir Des Flos on six-timers - double hat-tricks if you will - and they're obvious A players given their lowly starting points and waited with run styles (it's often harder for the handicapper to assess the level of horses that win from off the pace).

David Pipe is a man to keep on the team at this fixture, and his American Sniper - although lugging top weight - won this race last year off just a pound lower mark. B. Second in the weights is Whatsupwithyou, a lad with three silver medals round here and, most notably, a fourth in the Martin Pipe. He's another easy B.

I want C action here, too, and I'll lob in the Tony Martin possible plot (whose form I don't really like but whose price I respect), Young Lucy; and more interestingly/speculatively, Getalead (potentially very well handicapped on old form despite arriving on a hat-trick and a lover of good ground), Littlefoot (unexposed and showed a liking for big field quick ground at Ballinrobe recently) and Clonbury Bridge at the other end of the exposure spectrum but one who relishes a top of the ground battle in a big field.

Phew.

1.45 Cheltenham

From the melee of race one to a four-runner novices' chase. Win only for placepot purposes makes it tricky, as does 4/1 the outsider: they've all got a theoretical 20% or better chance of winning. Springwell Bay is favoured and he has looked classy on occasion, as when winning over 2m3f last time; but his pedigree doesn't assure that he'll stay even though he's gone close in lower class handicap hurdles at this range. Still, he cannot sensibly be left off A tickets; but nor is he banker material.

He'll share top billing with Hyland, an easy course/distance/going winner last month. He's up in grade but could have more to offer on good turf; and I think I'm throwing the other pair on A, too. Buddy One is the highest rated of these and can be forgiven a below par spin last time; he won at this meeting (3m handicap hurdle) last year and is usually bang there. Meanwhile, the Olly Murphy / Sean Bowen combo is hot hot hot right now, and they combine with Resplendent Grey, a winner of five of his eleven races and his sole chase run. He's the lowest rated of these but has bags of scope to step forward - though he'll need to prove he can handle both this far and this fast. I think he probably can.

Unnamed favourite as well.

2.20 Cheltenham

We're at leg 3 and could hardly be accused of taking a chance yet! This is the Grade 2 Shloer Chase and another four-cornered contest. Jonbon is a short-priced favourite, and he's six from six in his head to heads with these rivals, winning the four races in which he's faced them. Indeed, he's won 14 of 17 lifetime, and every time when off a layoff, including in this race last year. He might not win but he's got to be the banker. Sole A, and hope he's as good as ever.

N.B. If something interesting happened from a placepot perspective in one of the first two legs, you might consider laying Jonbon to cover some/all of your placepot stakes...

2.55 Cheltenham

Cross Country time and this handicap comprises largely the usual suspects, but with a couple of newcomers at opposite ends of the awareness continuum. Conflated is a mid-160's genuine Grade 1 horse that ran a close second to Jonbon in the G1 Melling Chase in April. He has all the weight to carry and this has traditionally been a sighter race for Gordon Elliott's Festival Cross Country brigade, almost all of which have been out of the frame at single figure prices. And yet this fella is taking support as I write.

Virtually unknown to the British audience - and to me - is Sweet David, a five-year-old French raider trained by Gabriel Leenders. He ran a huge race on his cross country debut at Craon and, if that wasn't a flash in the pan, he's at the right end of the handicap to get involved. Leenders deploys Felix de Giles to steer, his record over this course and distance reading 132432532 in the last few years.

It's a really tough race to unpick, with lots trying the fences for the first time, something that is generally a negative. Gavin Cromwell's Cheltenham record is right up there, and his Fameaftertheglory was third over these fences, albeit on soft ground. The quicker lawns would be a concern but he at least shapes up well otherwise. Back On The Lash won this off 138 in 2021, and a later season race over the same course/distance in 2023 off 137; he runs today from a perch of just 122, testament to his spotty form since. But as a dual cross country scorer in a field largely made up of virgins in the discipline, he might step back to something closer to his old sparkle.

In spite of my reservations, I'm taking Conflated on A along with Sweet David; and Fameaftertheglory on B and Back On The Lash on C. But I might easily have this race wrong.

3.30 Cheltenham

Six runners contest this G2 novice hurdle over 2m5f and two of them are very big prices indeed. Valgrand bashed Gale Mahler last time, which was unexpected, and both step up markedly in trip - from two miles. Gale Mahler gets five pounds more of a weight pull this time and I just don't quite believe the margin from their previous meeting, so both go on A. Potters Charm has more scope to improve but he'll need to, on both bare form and hurdling aptitude; it's the latter which sees him relegated to B on my tickets. And, while Rockstown Girl is probably overpriced at 25/1, I don't see all of the three already mentioned being out of the frame.

Unnamed favourite on B also.

4.00 Cheltenham



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

And we close with a 2m novices' handicap hurdle where a single non-runner will mean only three places. Sheesh. Fasol is an unexposed ex-French fastgroundophile. Group placed on the level this will be his handicap debut and, off 108, he could be absolutely lobbed in (he's got a flat RPR higher than his best current hurdles RPR - you'd normally expect the jumping one to be around 40lb superior!) - A.

Much more obvious is Balhambar, a smart flat horse when with Sir Michael Stoute and a decent dual purpose player now switched to Harry Derham. He seems to handle any ground, had a nice pipe opener on the flat last month and should go well. A.

I'm taking three on B, Chutzpal, Wreckless Eric and Clap Of Thunder and, frankly, I'm spready pretty thinly...

[Outside of the placepot, I might risk a penny each way on Dream Escape at 50/1+, just for kicks]

*

All of which gives us...

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Other Recent Posts by This Author:



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.