Tix Picks, 16/11/24

A 49% ROI (£24 to £35.70) with Friday's Tix play at Cheltenham was more fun and giggles than rock and roll, but it keeps things ticking over. There's a bumper Saturday menu today, with the Paddy Power Gold Cup highlighting Cheltenham's November fixture, as well as high class action at Navan and competitive racing at Uttoxeter and Wetherby before the tea time cards kick in. Today there's Listed racing at Newcastle and a nine-race bonanza at Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including nearly £120,000 rollover in the Scoop6 and a £250,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

Let's wheel back to Cheltenham for that big guarantee, starting at...

12.35 Cheltenham

The juveniles get us started in a 3yo Triumph Hurdle Trial guess up. James Owen won the race for the Gredley family last year with Burdett Road and, staying close to Poplar, he saddles East India Dock for the same connections this time. He is 90-rated on the flat, which loosely translates to 130-odd potential over hurdles; that would be enough to take this, though he may need to improve a little on an easy win at Wincanton last month. He led or pressed the lead all the way there, and might face contention from, amongst others, Model Approach if attempting that run style again. A.

In opposition is a JP McManus runner, My Noble Lord, trained by the Greenall/Guerriero axis - an emerging force - and this lad has won his last four, three on the flat and his debut over hurdles. On the level, he reached a progressive peak of 83 and his single jumps run was also slightly below the bar set by East India Dock; still, he was very novicey in that initial effort and can improve a chunk for the experience. A.

One other worth a mention and a place on B is the highly experienced ex-French Static, who was a neck second in a Listed contest on his UK bow and might have been a touch unlucky not to win. He doesn't have the upside of the other two named but brings battle hardiness to the table. Prairie Angel has won two middling Irish contests and was lesser-rated on the flat, so it will be disappointing for the British contingent if he's good enough to beat them: the overseas team will surely have much better Triumph options as the season wears on.

1.10 Cheltenham

Race 2 is an amateur riders' handicap chase, a contest where not all amateurs are made equal. Take Patrick Mullins for instance: he's ridden 50 winners at a near 0ne-in-three clip in the past year. That's more than many pro's have achieved and a strike rate none will have matched! He gets on the unexposed Transmission, who was second here on his chasing debut last time behind yesterday's Listed winner Hyland and looks credibly handicapped off 129.

It's obviously a substantial risk almost banking in a race like this but he's my sole A, to which I'll add just one B in Read To Return, trained by Tony Martin. The trainer had a second in a handicap hurdle here yesterday and this chap was 5th of 16, beaten only six lengths, in this race last year. Again, jockeys are important, and Fin Maguire is another highly experienced amateur.

Come On Teddy gets a positive trainer switch, and Toby McCain-Mitchell is another jockey uplift on The Newest One, winner of a similar race at the October meeting; but I'm going to risk it for a biscuit on Transmission, A, and Read To Return, B.

1.45 Cheltenham

A Grade 2 novice chase is Leg 3, and we have another borderline even money favourite. Horses sent off 10/11 to 11/10 in novice chases since 2019 have placed at 55%, a rate at which they should have just about won - so while I'm not opposing L'Eau Du Sud, I'm also not singling him. He was a smart hurdler last season, second in both the Betfair Hurdle and the County Hurdle, and he kicked off his novice chase campaign with a ten length win at Stratford. He made one howler there, and Cheltenham will offer greater tests than Shakespeare country, but he's obviously classy.

Lookaway won a G2 hurdle here last October before running second in the 2023 Greatwood Hurdle so clearly acts on the track. His win in a match at Uttoxeter on his sole fencing outing tells us little but he jumped adequately and handles top of the ground. I wonder if he has quite the scope of a couple of these, though.

The experienced one, having been summer jumping, is Breizh River. He's progressed from 107 to 135 and, while these are 'proper winter horses', we know quick ground and match fitness won't be issues.

With there being eight runners at time of writing, I'm going L'Eau Du Sud tentatively as A banker, with Lookaway and Breizh River on B. It might be as simple as that... and it might not be!

2.20 Cheltenham

The Paddy Power next. Ginny's Destiny is favourite and has loads of track form including when winning a novice at this meeting last year and when running second in the Turners (as well as a the Manifesto at Aintree). Stage Star was an all the way winner of this for Nicholls and Cobden last year off a mark of 155, and they'll bid to repeat the dose most likely with a horse rated exactly the same.

The Irish have a pretty poor record in this in recent years and I'm leaning into that in the hope they again miss the board. Focusing on 7-9yo's that ran in the last 60 days leaves me with Ga Law and Il Ridoto in support. All three on A. [And I might have a tiny e/w bet on Weveallbeencaught with as many extra places as I can get]

2.55 Cheltenham

A handicap hurdle next and another race with a strong favourite but a competitive look underneath. Doyen Quest nearly won here last month, and steps up to three miles for the first time. He looks an obvious jolly but does need to stay this extra half a mile. A.

As I referenced yesterday, David Pipe is a man for this meeting, his American Sniper running very well in 6th after being made an awful lot of use of early in the race. This time it's the JP horse Thanksforthehelp which is taking market action and commands respect. With form of P06 he hardly screams 'bet', but he's tumbled back to the mark off which he won a Class 2 Pertemps qualifier in February 2023 and he was entitled to need his first run of the season: this looks to have been the plan. A.

Gowel Road has a lot of weight but plenty of form under these conditions, too, for another trainer - Nigel Twiston-Davies - who gets winners at this meeting - he goes on B. And Pinnacle Peak and Zeeband are 'C' players with a squeak. Unnamed favourite on B, too.

3.30 Cheltenham

Tony Martin won this two years ago with the favourite and bids to reprise that with the almost unspellable Hamsiyann. He's been off since May, when he ran well in the Chester Plate, but has a stone in hand of the flat to hurdle extrapolation. Of course, he may simply not be good enough; but it's folly to oppose him in the placepot. A.

Henry Daly's mare Wyenot has cracking form behind the brilliant and under-rated Golden Ace; she led all the way here last month and, up six, will make another bold bid from the front - A. I'm against the Skeltons' Major Fortune on account of the ground, though he won't be a shock winner, and I prefer the claims of class-dropping Long Draw. B. Champagne Twist won the Novices' Final at Sandown last season and, if fit enough on this first run of the campaign, is another who can go forward from his current mark. B.

There are others with chances in a deep-looking final leg but we can't take them all!

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All of which gives us the following, as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

Remember, no Tix Picks on Sunday, though there are often sweet fish to fry - so do get involved yourself. I'll be back Monday morning.

Good Luck!
MATT

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