Tix Picks, 20/11/24
Another winning ticket yesterday but, again, the dividend was measly meaning profits were, too. Still 25% ROI is not terrible and clawed back some of the Monday deficit. Wednesday is my final contribution in this stint - Chris is back tomorrow - and I think we'll stay over jumps.
It's cold out there, Hexham failing to beat the frost, but we currently have jumps racing from Ffos Las and Warwick; and all-weather meetings at Kempton and Dundalk.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...
What is Tix?
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton...
Across to west Wales today as we tackle the Ffos Las placepot where soft ground means runners abound.
12.15 Ffos Las - Leg 1
A lot has to be taken on trust with short-priced novice hurdle recruits from the point fields. In the case of Buckna, at least, we have the fact his point had some depth and his price tag was £350,000. Oof. A. Admiral Stewart was beaten in his bumper having won a point to point, and he also goes on A. It's hard to see both of those two off the ticket.
12.50 Ffos Las - Leg 2
A competitive low grade novices' handicap chase next, with a shortish favourite in Montys Soldier. He was a staying on fourth in a good ground Fakenham novices' handicap hurdle over two and a half miles last time, and gets a lot of condition changes here: fences, more galloping track, softer turf and an extra half mile in trip. He should handle those differences based on pedigree and prior form but it's not a given so he'll have company on my main 'A' tickets. The Scorpion King is experienced, has performed well on soft and sees this range out fine; he's A team, too.
Shillanavogy won a 2m4f soft ground handicap hurdle and was a narrow second in a similar race to this last time. He handles soft, has nearly won at the trip and should run well if fit enough after six months off. Wide To West have soft ground three mile form but has been off for seven months and his trainer is not firing on all cylinders at the moment. Hobb's Delight has been going close but on quicker turf; he might handle softer well but he's yet to prove it and I'll leave him alone. Wonder Of The Seas is more attractive as a place play, with three silver medals in his last four runs, two of them on a deep surface. B's bar Hobb's.
[Casting Aspersions might run better than his price first time in a handicap]
13.25 Ffos Las - Leg 3
Assuming he can jump, dual bumper winner Blue Las should make the frame. A banker. In case he can't, Andy Amo is an obvious alternative for a trainer (Rebecca Curtis) with a good record in the race and whose bumper form implies this sort of test should be ideal. B.
14.00 Ffos Las - Leg 4
This 0-100 novices' handicap hurdle could see any of a number spring forward on what they've shown so far. The established form is with Greenways, but he's never raced on soft ground and is short enough with that to prove. Lady Harriett looks more solid, with form on soft and at the trip and as an easy last day winner. Fresh Speculation has been consistent in defeat but shoulders top weight against more interesting rivals. He, like Greenways, could easily make the frame, but won't be on my ticket.
Atreides was unlucky not to win two back, his run coming too late and, if his seven pound conditional can elicit a tune, he's a player. B. Just Aidan has been well backed early in spite of middling form and seven months off. It's possible he's stepped forward for his summer and is a tentative B.
I'm going to throw some rags on C here, as well, because it could go that way. Handicap debutants Jukebox Joker and Dish Of The Day, as well as Greenways and Fresh Speculation. I don't really like this race!
14.35 Ffos Las - Leg 5
Another 0-100 handicap chase but this time most of them are what they are: exposed handicappers. Favourite is Lermoos Legend but he doesn't love this sort of ground and has top weight. Supasunrise and One Last Glance look much more reliable against race conditions. Both on A.
Ileny Royale is an interesting one at a price. Ex-French, he ran better than his finishing position last time and gets the tongue tie that was a feature of his better French form for the first time in UK today. I'm not sure about the ground for Lelant, Esperti or Faitque de l'Isle; but Bobbi's Beauty will go through it and may try to lead - the trouble is, she's having her first run for eight months for a yard out of form.
I'm taking more B's with Rock On Rita, Higgs and My Granny Lily all expected to cope with conditions. But I could easily have this race wrong.
15.10 Ffos Las - Leg 6
A trappy mares' handicap hurdle closes out the card and I'm again, reluctantly, taking on the well-backed favourite Hedera Park on the basis of no form on soft. The support suggests connections think he'll handle it and he'll be in the frame if he does; but there are three places to go at so we can still get the job done.
Cast's Tasha has all the weight but is fully proven in conditions for a trainer, Ben Clarke, who has started the season well. It's Easy should benefit from this stouter test than two miles last time and goes in deep ground. Both on A.
Elusiveness has the benefit of a run and gets first time cheekpieces. I'm convinced she'll stay but I respect connections. B. Sanda Rena's best run was on soft and she gets a tongue tie for handicap second start; that's enough to guess onto B. And Triple Nickle is very consistent and handles any ground. B.
*
Which for 2p lines before multipliers gives us the below (£26.40 staked), as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.
Good Luck!
MATT
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