OK, guys, I'm back in the hotseat upon my return from a brief trip abroad and hopefully I can continue the fine form shown by Matt here in my absence. Thursday's UK action is scheduled for Lingfield, Southwell, Warwick, Wincanton & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...
And as it's likely to be a tough first day at the helm, I might as well aim for the big one and tackle these six races on Southwell's standard going tapeta...
Leg 1 @ 4.30...Anthropologist and Fernando both won last time out, both are only up 4lbs for their wins and the former also takes a drop in class here. Elsewhere both Montbeliarde and Queen of Good News have been runners-up in two of their last three starts but the former is up in class here, whilst the latter drops three classes.
Anthropologist is the one most likely to lead, but there's no out and out front runner here, which does give a chance to those who might otherwise have been left behind, whilst with low draws preferred over this track and trip, that's another tick for Anthropologist from stall 2 of 9.
He won't be the market's choice here, but Anthropologist ticks most boxes for me today and I'll take him along with fellow LTO winner Fernando and triple-grade class dropper Queen of Good News in the opener.
Leg 2 @ 5.00...Waiting All Night looks like a potential front-runner here and if he brings his Newmarket summer form to the table, he has a great chance of giving his yard more success at a track where they've had 7 winners and 4 placers from 20 over the last year. Local Music has only failed to make the frame twice in her nine starts over the past year with three wins and three runner-up finishes.
Rogue Encore comes here on a hat-trick after back to back 1m wins at Newcastle and is a big danger despite a 6lb penalty, as is Helm Rock if running like he did at Chelmsford last time out. He was only beaten by head after being denied a clear run and the one horse from that race to have run again went on to win at Wolverhampton five days ago.
And whilst I do like the look of Waiting All Night, it's (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock for me here.
Rogue Encore was withdrawn whilst I was writing the piece, so (1) Waiting All Night takes his place on the tickets.
Leg 3 @ 5.30...Al Rayyan blew the start at Kempton on debut six weeks ago but ran on really well to finish fourth and if coming on for the run and getting away more smoothly, should be in the mix here today for a yard with 17 wins and 16 places from 58 over the last month and a course record of 9 wins and 6 places from 30 over the last five years. Cy Twombly has run to a reasonable level in two starts so far and could well be involved again here; his trainer/jockey have a good record together at this venue.
The Gosden newcomer Gamrai is interesting, his dam was a winner at 1m2f and he's related to 1m winner Aljazzi and a half-brother to Majestic Noor and the versatile triple-code winner Liverpool Knight. The yard is in great form, especially with today's jockey on the saddle and this one could well win on debut. Debutants Wolfpack and Atlantic Sunset are also of interest, but I'm playing it relatively safe here with (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai.
Leg 4 @ 6.00...The second division of the race above looks a much weaker affair with only Pride of Donegal making much appeal from the seven runners to have already raced. He was only beaten by three lengths over a mile on debut at Newcastle a fortnight ago defying odds of 28/1 and should come on for the run, whilst it is hoped that Hallelujah U will also be able to build upon his 5th of 11 (3.5 lengths) run here over 7f a month ago. He didn't get a clear run that day but finished stronger so might appreciate the extra furlong here for a yard with a 28% win strike rate over the last month and 4 winners plus 3 placers from his last 15 Southwell A/W runners.
All of which might well be blown out of the water by another newcomer from the Gosden yard, the Lope De Vega colt Written For You. He is a half-brother to several winners including Glorious Journey who won eight times between 6f and 1m including three Group 2 races, 1m winner Queen For You and 2-y-o 7f/1m winner Love Is You.
So, I'll take (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You for this one.
Leg 5 @ 6.30...Top-weight Artistic Star drops back into handicap company after five Class 1 races and if fit to go first time up after a seven-month break, could well have been underestimated by the assessor, even if 106 isn't a mark to be taken lightly and we've already mentioned the 30-day and course form of his trainer Ralph Beckett earlier. Max Mayhem won a Class 2 handicap on his last A/W outing just over a year ago and comes here off the back of a two length defeat in a £52k handicap at Goodwood.
Course and distance winner Andaleep was a three-quarter length runner-up at Kempton seventeen ago in a 14-runner field and that came of the back of an excellent run at 66/1 to finish 5th of 31 in the Cambridgeshire at the end of September, so this horse clearly has ability and isn't afraid of company, but the one to beat here has to be Champagne Prince, who is three from three on the A/W and won here over course and distance last time out and shouldn't be anchored by a 5lb rise.
Dark Moon Rising is another to consider, as he's better than his LTO 21st of 23 at Doncaster might suggest, as he'd finished 233 with small margins of defeat in his previous three runs, but I'm overlooking him in favour of (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince.
Leg 6 @ 7.00...The early morning market says it's a three horse race from the top of the card and I'd tend to agree that this should be between Paddy's Day, Strong Johnson & Dashing Harry and I've got very little between them in my head.
Paddy's Day drops in class after finishes of 4223 and not beaten by much in any of them, he ruins of the same mark as his LTO C&D third of nine and with his jockey taking 5lbs off, he should be on the premises once more.
Strong Johnson was going well at Wolverhampton last week, leading at the halfway point before his reins snapped and having been passed by a couple inside the final furlong, he was eased down with no real hope of being ridden out. That said, he did make all to at Newcastle two starts ago and a similar run might well be enough here.
Dashing Harry probably just about shades it here, though as he was only denied by a short head (headed on the line) over course and distance three days ago and goes again off the same mark. He was a winner at Kempton three starts ago and drops in class today.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Queen of Good News, (4) Anthropologist & (5) Fernando
Leg 2: (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock & (1) Waiting All Night (late sub)
Leg 3: (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai
Leg 4: (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You
Leg 5: (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince
Leg 6: (1) Paddy's Day, (2) Strong Johnson & (3) Dashing Harry
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
