2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 15th March 2024)

/in , , /by

Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know? All of the last 21 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Friday 15th March 2024 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

   

    1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2023 Winner: LOSSIEMOUTH (11/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

  • 23 of the last 30 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 15 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 8 of the last 11 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 14 of the last 23 places (last 9 runnings)
  • 14 of the last 19 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 16 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it)
  • 10 of the last 13 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (8 of the last 12) last time
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had raced by Christmas time
  • 7 of the last 9 winners began their careers in France
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 10 years
  • Mullins and Rich Ricci has won the last 2 runnings
  • 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Just 2 of the last 19 winner returned bigger than 12/1
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 15
  • Willie Mullins has fairly poor record despite winning the 2020, 2022, 2023 races – currently 3-from-41 runners
  • Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)

=============================================================

2.10 – BetMGM County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

2023 Winner: FAIVOIR (33/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Bridget Andrews
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 11 of the last 17 runnings
  • 8 of the last 9 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) or Dan Skelton (4)
  • Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 14 runnings
  • 18 of the last 23 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
  • 14 of the last 18 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 9 of the last 16 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 7 of the last 15 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 12 of the last 25 winners aged 5
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham before
  • 11 of the last 17 winners Irish-trained
  • 9 of the last 16 winners started their careers in France
  • 14 of the last 18 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 13 of the last 20 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 12 of the last 23 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 17 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 5 of the last 8 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 32 (+15pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 52 (+36.25pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 8 winners
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
  • Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-20) since 2011
  • Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-36) this century
  • Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 38 in last 16 runnings
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 10 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 2 winners have defied this stat
  • Just 2 winning outright favourites in last 22
  • Just 3 of the last 16 winners returned a single-figure price

=============================================================

    2.50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2023 Winner: STAY AWAY FAY (18/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 19 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 16 of the last 19 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • 7 of the last 19 winners won the Hyde or Bristol Classic that season
  • 16 of the last 19 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won a Point
  • 7 of the last 10 winners trained in Ireland
  • 10 of the last 15 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
  • 9 of the last 19 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 19 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 15 of the last 19 had run in a race over 3m
  • 16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 15 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 17 of the last 19 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 12 of the last 19 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 18 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 7 runnings

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Challow Hurdle winners have poor Festival record
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 47 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 6
  • Gordon Elliott is 0-from-12
  • Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 19)
  • Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 11 years
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 120)
  • Only 4 of the last 18 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
  • 0 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (0%)

=============================================================

    3.30 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

2023 Winner: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (7/5 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 19 of the last 24 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 20 of the last 23 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 19 of the last 24 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 12 of the last 18 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • 23 of the last 24 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
  • 19 of the last 23 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 19 of the last 23 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 21 of the last 24 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 14 of the last 16 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 17 of the last 27 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 17 of the last 23 winners won last time out
  • 11 of the last 21 winners were favourites (52%)
  • 14 of the last 19 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
  • ALL of the last 24 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 23 of the last 24 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
  • 21 of the last 24 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
  • 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
  • Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won the last 5
  • Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 74)
  • Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 46
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 2 of the last 16 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
  • No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats: The Last 20 Years

  • 20/20 – Aged 9 or younger
  • 19/20 – Had raced within the last 3 months
  • 18/20 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
  • 17/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 17/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 17/20 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
  • 15/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
  • 15/20 – Won last time out
  • 14/20 – Placed favourites
  • 13/20 – Had won 5 or more times over fences in the UK or Ire before
  • 12/20 – Rated 170 or higher
  • 11/20 – Irish bred
  • 10/20 – Winning favourites
  • 9/20 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 7)
  • 8/20 – Had last raced in the previous calendar year
  • 8/20 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
  • 5/20 – Last race was in the King George VI Chase (Kempton)
  • 4/20 – Won the Denman Chase (Newbury) last time out
  • 3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
  • 3/20 - Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of the last 5)
  • 2/20 – Ran in the Savills Chase last time out
  • 2/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
  • 2/20 – Trained by Henry De Bromhead (2 of the last 3)
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 renewals is 11/2

Other Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

  • Only one horse (Kauto Star 2009) has ever regained the race
  • 28 of the last 29 winners have been aged 9 or younger
  • 9 of the last 21 winners came here fresh – did not race that same calendar year
  • 18 of the last 22 winners were rated 166 or higher
  • 22 of the last 24 winners had won a race already that current season
  • 16 of the last 22 winners had finished second or better at the Cheltenham Festival before
  • 11 of the last 23 winners had run in that season’s King George VI Chase (Kempton)
  • 22 of the last 23 winners had won a Grade One Chase contest before
  • The last winner aged older than 11+ was in 1969 (What a Myth, 12)
  • Just one 10 year-old winner since 1993 (Cool Dawn, 1998)

=============================================================

   4.10 - St James's Place Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

2023 Winner: Premier Magic
Trainer – Bradley Gibbs
Jockey – Mr Bradley Gibbs
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

  • 29 of the last 33 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 27 of the last 38 won last time out
  • The last 9 winners aged 10 or 11
  • 20 of the last 21 winners Irish or French bred
  • The last 17 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
  • 8 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 9 of the last 15 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 31 of the last 35 started out in point-to-point races
  • 14 of the last 18 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 9 of last 13)
  • 5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 9 of the last 15 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 11 of the last 14 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 11, rated 138+)
  • 3 back-to-back winners in the last 12
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 47 years aged 12 or older
  • 30 of the last 37 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 36 runnings
  • Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • British bred horses are 0-89 (last 21 runnings)
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 266 since 1990
  • Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

=============================================================

    4.50- Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

2023 Winner: IMPERVIOUS (1st 15/8)
Trainer – Colm Murphy
Jockey – Brian Hayes
UK/Irish: Irish

  • Only 3 previous runnings
  • Willie Mullins trained 2 winners
  • Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
  • All 3 winners have been 2nd favourite
  • All 3 winners won last time out
  • All 3 winners rated 150+
  • All 3 winners aged 7-8
  • All 3 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
  • 0 winning favourites in the last 3 runnings (0%)

=============================================================

    5.30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

 

2023 Winner: IROKO
Trainer – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Jockey – Aidan Kelly
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 15 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 11 of the last 13 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 15 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • 3 of the last 6 winners had top-weight
  • All 15 winners aged 7 or younger
  • 9 or the last 12 winners rated 138+
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 8 of the last 13 (6 making handicap debuts)
  • 37 of the 39 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 12 of the 15 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 8 of the 15 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 9 of the 15 winners were rated 133-139
  • 9 of the 15 winners returned at a double-figure price (11 of the last 15 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 13 of last 15 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 25 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 13 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 11 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
  • Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 5
  • Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 9 of the last 11 between them

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
  • Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 63
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 15-year history (9-13 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 78
  • Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-100
  • 0 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (0%)
  • 1 Winning fav since the race started in 2009

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 17 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 14th March 2024)

/in , , /by

Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 15 of the last 19 winners had won at Cheltenham before.

While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize we saw Sire Du Berlais grabbing a shock win in 2023 and is back for more at the age of 12.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Thursday 14th March 2024 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

  

    1.30 - Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f 166y ITV

2023 Winner: STAGE STAR 15/2
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 9 of the 13 winners were Irish-trained
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 13 winners
  • 9 of the last 13 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • 12 of the last 13 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 9 of the last 13 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
  • 11 of the last 13 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
  • 12 of the 13 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 13 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 13 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 13 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 13 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
  • 3 outright winning favourites in the last 9 runnings
  • 10 of the last 13 winners won last time out
  • 12 of the last 13 winners French (4) or Irish (8) bred (7 of last 8 Irish bred)
  • 5 of the last 13 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 7 of the last 13 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 9 of last 13 renewals
  • 8 of the last 9 winners rated 151+
  • 3 of the last 13 winners owned by Gigginstown House Stud
  • Gordon Elliott is 2 from 6
  • JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 5 winners
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just 4 British-trained winners so far, but one was last year (Stage Star)
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 13
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 4 winning favourites in 13 runnings (1 co)
  • 5 year-olds are 0-from-7
  • Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days

================================================

    2.10 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV

 

2023 Winner: GOOD TIME JONNY (9/1)
Trainer – AJ Martin
Jockey – Liam McKenna (5lbs)
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • Irish have won the last 7 of last 8 runnings
  • Last 12 winners aged 8 or younger
  • Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
  • 9 of the last 16 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
  • 11 of the last 23 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 12 of the last 17 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • 11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 138-148
  • 12 of the last 19 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 6 of the last 11 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 8 of the last 10 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 23 winners won their last race
  • 6 of the last 8 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 3 of the last 15 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
  • Respect horses with headgear (8 since 2000)
  • 7 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue-tie
  • 7 of the last 8 winners Irish-trained
  • 6 of the last 8 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins has never won this race
  • Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
  • Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
  • 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
  • Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
  • Only 2 winning favourites in last 18 years
  • Just 1 winner in the last 41 years aged 10+
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 10 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 50
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

================================================

    2.40 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV

2023 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN (13/2)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 15 of the 19 winners had won at Cheltenham before
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • All 16 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
  • 12 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 13 of the last 16 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (8 from 30) (Envoi Allen 2023 ran in that season’s KG 7th)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 16 of the last 19 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 15 of the last 16 winners were rated 161+
  • Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 6
  • 4 of the last 19 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 14 of last 19 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • 11 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 16 of the last 19 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time headgear (3 from 12)
  • 10 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Last 10 winners were French-bred
  • All winners ran 5 or less times that season
  • 5 of the last 8 winners trained by Willie Mullins
  • Last 12 winners aged 9 or younger
  • The Irish have won 7 of the last 8 runnings
  • 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • No winner aged 11 or older
  • Only 1 of the last 15 winners aged 10
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 6 of the last 16 won last time out
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

================================================

    3.30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2023 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS (33/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish   

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 19 won last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 20 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 30 of the last 34 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
  • 18 of the last 23 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 18 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
  • 9 of the last 22 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 8 of the last 17 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
  • 19 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 14 of the last 19 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race
  • 18 of the last 27 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
  • 3 of the last 6 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
  • The Irish are have won the race just 6 times since 1995 (but have won the last 3)
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
  • Horses wearing headgear are 1 from 79
  • Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 34 runnings
  • Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 65), last year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

================================================

4.10 - TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV

2023 Winner: SEDDON (20/1)
Trainer – John C McConnell
Jockey – Ben Harvey (5lbs)
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 28 of the last 36 winners were officially rated 140 or less
  • 12 of the last 15 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • 14 of the last 19 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
  • 11 of the last 20 winners had won a race in Feb or March
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 26 runnings
  • 18 of the last 23 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 23 of the last 32 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 12 were having Festival debut)
  • 23 of the last 24 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 9 of the last 14 winners had 9 or less chase runs
  • 19 of the last 24 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were novices or second season chasers
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had raced that calendar year
  • Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won last time out
  • The last 5 winners had won at Cheltenham that season

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • Willie Mullins has never won this race
  • The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1982, but could be turning with these all coming since 2016
  • Only 3 of the last 20 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
  • Just 4 winning favourites in the last 18 years
  • Only 5 of last 29 winners won with 11st+
  • Just 2 winners older than 9 in the last 11 years
  • Only 2 of the last 20 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

================================================

    4.50 – Ryanair Mares' (Dawn Run) Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV

2023 Winner: YOU WEAR IT WELL
Trainer – Jamie Snowden
Jockey – Gavin Sheehan
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • A new race (Just 8 renewals)
  • All 8 winners aged 5 or 6
  • 6 of the last 8 winners trained in Ireland, but last 2 UK trained
  • Favourites have won 3 of the 8 runnings
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won last time out
  • 4 of the 8 winners were French-bred
  • 5 of the last 8 winners were top or 2nd top rated
  • 5 of the last 8 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 5 of the last 8 past winners started their careers in France
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
  • 4 of the 8 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 8 runnings (just 4 runners)
  • 4 of the 8 winners have been aged 5 years-old
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
  • Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 8 runnings (38%)

Negatives….

  • British trained runners are 2-from-57
  • British bred mares are 1-from-28
  • Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
  • JP McManus owned are 0-from-9
  • 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-24

================================================

    5.30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV

2023 Winner: ANGELS DAWN
Trainer – S Curling
Jockey – Mr PA King
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • Respect horse aged between 7-9 year-olds
  • 11 of the last 16 winners failed to win earlier that season
  • 10 of the last 12 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 10 of the last 12 winners rated between 137-143
  • 9 of the last 14 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
  • 9 of the last 14 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
  • 8 of the last 13 winners hadn’t won that season
    11 of the last 15 winners ran in February
  • Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 20 of the last 24 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 8 of the last 13 winners wore headgear
  • 12 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
  • Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 12)
  • 19 of the last 21 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

  • Just 6 Irish winners in last 40 years (but have won 6 of the last 10)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race (never won it)
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 1 from 80 since 2005
  • Jus 2 of the last 19 winners aged 10+
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 108 since 2009
  • Just 2 of the last 21 winners won last time out
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 13th March 2024)

/in , , /by

Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins has won for the last two seasons and has a strong hand again in 2024 with El Fabiolo, who is unbeaten over fences.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

Wednesday 13th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

1.30 – Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (Reg as the Baring Bingham) (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2023 Winner: IMPAIRE ET PASSE (5/2)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 17 of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • 12 of the last 15 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
  • 19 of the last 23 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 23 of the last 29 winners won last time out
  • 28 of the last 29 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • The Irish have won 14 of the last 21 (9 of last 10)
  • Horses rated 150+ do well
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
  • 24 of the last 29 winners (including last 12) had won at least one bumper race
  • 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 10 of the last 13 winners were aged 6
  • In the last 12 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 24 of the 36 top 3 places
  • 23 of the last 25 were NH bred
  • 17 of the last 25 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 13 had won an Irish Point)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 6 winners in last 16 years (4 of the last 10)
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 winners
  • 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

  • Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 37 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 20 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 18 years)

=================================================

2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2023 Winner: THE REAL WHACKER (8/1)
Trainer – Patrick Neville
Jockey – Sam Twiston-Davies
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 5 of the last 15 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase
  • The last 22 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
  • 16 of the last 17 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
  • 26 of the last 29 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 14 of the last 17 (19 of last 24)
  • 12 of the last 18 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 14 winners were beaten on their chase debut
  • 8 of the last 16 winners had won a bumper before
  • 8 of the last 17 favourites won
  • The last 9 winners were rated 150+
  • 11 of the last 12 winners returned single-figures in the betting
  • 21 of the last 23 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
  • Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
  • Irish bred horses are 22 from the last 27
  • 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 7 of the last 15 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins (5 wins) and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 20 between them)
  • 26 of the last 31 were novice hurdling last season
  • 6 of the last 14 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (55 of the last 57 winners had)
  • 12 of the last 17 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
  • 8 of the last 9 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
  • 5 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (50%)

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 3 of the last 24 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
  • French bred horses are 1-from-43 (last 17 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
  • The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 12 years
  • Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 24 winners)
  • Mares are currently 0-from-12 in the race
  • Horses in headgear have a poor record

=================================================

    2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

 

2023 Winner: LANGER DAN (9/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 19 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 18 of the last 23 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
  • 11 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before (9 had top 4 finish)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were rated in the 140’s
  • 15 of the last 24 winners aged 6 or 7
  • 10 of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 13 of the last 18 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 21 of the last 29 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 14 years)
  • 10 of the last 22 winners were French-Bred
  • 15 of the last 30 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 15)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (13 of last 15 winners)
  • 16 of the last 19 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 13 runnings
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 10 (4 in total)
  • 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
  • 4 of the last 5 winners wore headgear

Negatives….

  • Just one winning favourite in the last 20 years (2020)
  • Only 5 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 309 to even place since 1999
  • Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 50 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 47 since 2010
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

=================================================

    3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

2023 Winner: ENERGUMENE (6/5 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 23 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 11 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 25 of the last 39 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 24 between them
  • Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 12
  • 29 of the last 37 winners aged between 7-9
  • 14 of the last 22 winners won last time out
  • 14 of the last 18 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 18 of the last 21 winners had run that calendar year
  • 40 of the last 42 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 17 of the last 24 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 17 winners were French-bred
  • 12 of the last 21 winners were second season chasers
  • 16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
  • 21 of the last 25 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 17 of the last 24 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
  • 7 of the last 13 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
  • Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
  • Just 1 winner in last 19 had run 4+ times that season
  • Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
  • Just 1 of the last 22 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
  • Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
  • Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 49 years
  • Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 45 years
  • 5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
  • Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

=================================================

    4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

 

2023 Winner: DELTA WORK (11/10 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 16 of the last 19 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 16 of the last 19 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 22 of the last 26 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 10 of the last 19 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
  • 15 of the last 19 winners had run on the course before
  • Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (4 wins)
  • 15 or the last 19 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • 8 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or 9
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 7 runnings
  • 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
  • 10 of the last 19 winners had run in the NH Chase before
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
  • The last 8 winners wore headgear
  • 9 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-tie

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
  • Just 3 of the last 14 winners won their last race
  • Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

=================================================

    4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

2023 Winner: MASKADA (22/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Darragh O’Keeffe
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more
  • 16 of the last 20 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
  • 10 of the last 14 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 15 winners novices or second season chasers
  • 12 of the last 18 winners aged between 6-8
  • 13 of the last 20 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 20
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 6 of the last 15 runnings
  • 5 of the last 9 winners won after a 91+ day break
  • 10 of the last 13 winners were rated between 138-147
  • 11 of the last 13 winners rated between 138-150
  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more in weight
  • 21 of the last 24 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 28 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 17
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 35 since 2005
  • Only 2 of the last 19 winners were favourites
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

=================================================

    5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

 

2023 Winner: A DREAM TO SHARE (7/2)
Trainer – John E Kiely
Jockey – Mr JL Gleeson
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 29 of the last 31 had won last time out (all of last 19)
  • 24 of the last 31 winners trained in Ireland
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (24 from 40)
  • 22 of the last 31 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 24 of the last 31 were Irish-bred
  • 12 of the last 23 winners were second season horses
  • 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 20 of the last 31 winners aged 5 years-old
  • 20 of the last 22 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 12 of the last 21 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 14 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (12 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
  • The Irish lead the British 25-7 in the race history
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
  • 12 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • Mares are 3-21 in the last 19 runnings
  • 7 of the last 8 winners had run in February
  • 3 of the last 5 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
  • Just 2 of the last 13 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
  • Only 4 of the last 13 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 67 since 2000 (Cue Card)
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 17 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 12th March 2024)

/in , , /by

Each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day one' feature is the Grade One Unibet Champion Hurdle - a race in which 34 of the last 40 winners won last time out. While the Irish or Nicky Henderson have won 21 of the last 25 renewals between them.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2024 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2024
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2024

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2024

Tuesday 12th March 2024 (Old Course)   

1.30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

 

2023 Winner: Marine Nationale
Trainer – Barry Connell
Jockey – Michael O’Sullivan
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

  • 24 of the last 27 winners won their last race
  • 14 of the last 20 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
  • 12 of the last 14 winners came from the first 4 in the market
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
  • 21 of the last 29 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Irish-trained horses have won 18 of the last 32 runnings
  • 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 17 of the last 19 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and for 5 of the last 11 years
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
  • 26 of the last 29 winners had raced that same calendar year
  • Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 11 runnings
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had been rated 153 or more
  • 10 of the last 11 winners returned a single-figure price
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were previous bumper winners
  • 4 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (40%)

Negatives…..

  • Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 27. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
  • Since 1992 all horses (40) wearing head-gear have been beaten
  • We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
  • Just 4 of the last 21 winners came here unbeaten
  • Just 1 of the last 21 winners aged 7 or older
  • Just 2 outright winning favourites in the last 19 runnings
  • 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
  • Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade

====================================================

2.10 – My Pension Expert Arkle Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV

2023 Winner: EL FABIOLO (11/10 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 19 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
  • 18 of the last 24 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
  • The last 14 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 22)
  • 22 of the last 24 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
  • 14 of the last 18 winners had won at least twice over fences before
  • 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 15 of the last 21 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
  • 14 of the last 20 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten over fences
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
  • Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 9 runnings (all French-bred)
  • 9 of the last 12 winners trained by Willie Mullins (5) or Nicky Henderson (4)
  • 9 of the last 12 favourites have won
  • 7 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (70%)

Negatives…..

  • Only 2 of the last 37 winners failed to win or finish second last time out
  • Just 3 of the last 33 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
  • Only 4 of the last 32 winners were older than 7 years-old
  • The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
  • Ex-flat horses have a poor record
  • Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
  • 5 year-olds are 0-16 in the last 13 years
  • Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

====================================================

    2.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV

2023 Winner: CORACH RAMBLER
Trainer – Lucinda Russell
Jockey – Derek Fox
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 18 of the last 24 winners were officially rated 143 or less
  • 16 of the last 23 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 19 of the last 23 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
  • 17 of the last 23 were novices or second season chasers
  • 9 of the last 16 winners were rated between 142-146 (7 between 142-145)
  • Horses rated 140+ have won 15 of the last 23 runnings
  • 9 of the last 21 won last time out
  • Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
  • 10 of the last 12 winners wore headgear
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
  • Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
  • All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
  • 5 of the last 9 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
  • 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Northern-based runners have a good record

Negatives….

  • Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 12 of the last 19 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8 and Corach Rambler in 2023 carried 10st 5bs)
  • Horses aged 11 or older are just 3 from 55 to even get placed
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 25
  • Only 3 winners in the last 15 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
  • Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
  • The Irish have won just 2 of the last 55 runnings (since 1967)
  • Irish-trained runners are 0-38 in the last 17 runnings
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (20%)

====================================================

    3.30 - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV

2023 Winner: CONSTITUTION HILL (1st 4/11 fav)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

  • 34 of the last 40 won last time out
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
  • Horses unbeaten that season often do well (11 of last 13)
  • The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 21 of the last 25 runnings between them
  • 10 of the last 15 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
  • The Irish have won 15 of the last 25 runnings
  • Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 14 (9 in total)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings
  • 28 of the last 34 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (12 of last 17)
  • 15 of the last 25 winners had won at the Festival before
  • 26 of the last 39 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
  • The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (5 winners, 6 places in last 16 runnings)
  • 14 of the last 28 winners started as flat horses
  • The last 9 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times, including 4 of the last 7 years
  • 7 of the last 15 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
  • Mares are currently 4 from 9 during last 8 runnings
  • 8 of the last 11 favourites won
  • 7 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (70%)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
  • 5 year-olds are just 2 from 112 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
  • Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-30 in the last 41 runnings)
  • Just 1 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
  • Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 5 from 33, but – Epatante 2020 & 2023 Constitution Hill) – did the Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle double.
  • Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
  • International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 20 years)
  • Only 2 of the last 25 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
  • The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was Constitution Hill (2023), but before that was 52 years ago (Bula)

====================================================

    4.10 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV

2023 Winner: HONEYSUCKLE
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • Follow Irish-trained mares (13 of last 16)
  • The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 12 of the last 16 runnings
  • 9 of the last 16 favourites have won
  • 12 of the last 16 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
  • 15 of the last 16 winners had won over at least 2m4f
  • Willie Mullins has trained 9 of the last 16 winners
  • Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
  • Novices generally do well
  • 11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
  • 6 of the last 12 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
  • Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
  • Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
  • 12 of the last 16 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 16 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

Negatives….

  • Avoid front-runners
  • British-bred mares are currently 3-90
  • Just 1 outright favourite in the last 9 runnings
  • Just one winner from last 32 runners to wear headgear have won
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
  • Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
  • Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)
  • 3 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (30%)

====================================================

    4.50 - Boodles Juvenile Hurdle (Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle) 2m 87y) ITV

2023 Winner: JAZZY MATTY (18/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Michael O’Sullivan
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 19 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
  • French bred horses have a good record
  • 10 of the last 19 winners started their careers in France
  • Respect Fillies
  • 12 of the last 19 winners carried 11st+
  • 9 of the last 19 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 13 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 11 of the last 19 had run in the last 25 days
  • David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (4 of last 11) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
  • 6 of the last 12 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 12 priced 25/1+)
  • 13 of the last 19 winners returned a double-figure price
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 14 of the last 19 winners were rated between 124-134
  • 8 of the last 16 winners were British-trained
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 14 runnings
  • 14 of the last 19 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

Negatives….

  • Just 2 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 40 between them
  • Just 3 of the last 19 winners rated 135+
  • Horses bred in Britain are 0-63 (last 14 years)
  • Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 20 (just 3 placed in top 5 too)
  • Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
  • Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 19
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

====================================================

    5.30 – National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV

 

2023 Winner: GAILLARD DU MESNIL 10/11 fav
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

  • 13 of the last 22 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 13 of the last 18 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (24 of the last 33)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run 5+ times over fences
  • 11 of the last 13 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
  • 7 of the last 13 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
  • 8 of the last 17 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
  • 10 of the last 13 winners returned a single-figure price
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 9 of the last 13 winners Irish-trained
  • 10 of the last 13 winners were rated 145 (or more)
  • Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (6 winners)
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-22)
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 5 places (from 17 rides)
  • Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 9 of the last 13 (4 Mullins, 3 Codd, 2 O’Connor)
  • Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 11 runnings
  • Jockey Jamie Codd has won 3 of the last 9
  • Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 13 runners
  • 3 of the last 6 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett

Negatives….

  • 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 83 since 1989
  • Just 5 of the last 13 winners were top-rated
  • Favourites have won just 4 of the last 14 runnings
  • Just 2 of the last 33 winners were aged 6 years-old
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 19
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
  • Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
  • Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 15)
  • Just 2 winners in the last 15 returned bigger than 12/1
  • 1 winning favourites in the last 10 runnings (10%)

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 17 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: An Overview

/in , , /by

For many punters, eyes are fixed firmly on the 2024 Cheltenham Festival as we are now literally days away, writes Dave Renham. In this article I am going to examine the Festival handicaps looking back at the most recent 15 renewals, which take us back as far as 2009. There will be nine handicap races in 2024, four over fences and five over hurdles. These handicaps are bound to be difficult puzzles to solve, unsurprisingly when one considers the number of runners that contest them: over the study period, the average field size for all handicaps has been 22.5!

So, let’s get started.

Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: Market Factors

To begin with, I want to look at the betting market. Here are the Betfair SP returns for different sections of the market:

 

 

At this helicopter level, three things stand out for me. Firstly, the performance of favourites which, as a group, have made a profit. Secondly, the very poor performance of second and third favourites combined. And thirdly, horses priced 7th to 10th in the betting outperforming in win strike rate terms those ranked 4th to 6th. It seems that the value has been with these horses over the past 15 years. Interestingly, horses 7th to 10th in the market returned a profit in nine of the 15 Festival years.

Now, I have combined both hurdle and chase handicaps for the market stats. It is worth noting the favourite stats are quite different when we split into race type:

 

 

Handicap favourites in chases have fared well, winning better than one race in five and returning over 32p in the £. Added to that they have an excellent A/E index of 1.15. Handicap hurdle favourites have performed much less well. This is a good example of why we have to dig deeper into general stats, although we are dealing with smallish sample sizes here. Let me split the results up now starting by focusing on handicap chases.

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

Course form

In terms of these races I want to look at whether a previous win at Cheltenham is a positive. To do that, I'll compare the A/E indices of previous Cheltenham winners with those who have not notched a success at the track. This includes all horses that have run at the track before:

 

 

There is quite a significant difference here with past Cheltenham winners the better value. They also have a better overall strike rate.

There is another group of runners that I have not shared yet, which is Cheltenham debutants: horses having their first ever run at the iconic venue. These runners have performed the poorest of all with an A/E index of just 0.63.

Country of Breeding

Next, I want to look to see if the country of breeding makes any difference. Essentially there are three main countries to look at – GB, Ireland, and France. They have provided 97% of the handicap chase runners. Be aware that the win strike rates are going to be low due to huge fields. Here are the splits:

 

 

Irish-bred runners have provided the most qualifiers and they have clearly the best record. The A/E indices for British- and French-bred runners are very low. It should be noted that this is not because handicap chases have been dominated by Irish trainers as we will see later. For the record, American-breds have won two races from 25 runners, but they have had no qualifying runners since 2017, German-breds are one from 18.

Days since last run

Is there a ‘sweet spot’ in terms of the time since the horse was last seen racing? In terms of value there does seem to be. Here are the A/E indices for different groupings. All groups contained at least 250 qualifiers meaning there was a decent sample and similar number of runners in each:

 

 

The first two columns are comfortably the highest implying that horses returning to the track within five weeks have offered the best value. These horses have combined to produce a modest, though not insignificant, 8p in the £ return on stakes. The three cohorts off the track for 36 days or more combined to lose 12p in the £. It seems in handicap chases a more recent run is favourable.

Position Last Time Out

How does last time out performance impact proceedings? Horses that won or finished second last time out (LTO) win far more often than those that finished third or worse. The strike rate comparison is 6.4% versus 3.9%. In terms of profit/loss, however, both groups made losses to Industry SP as you might expect; but LTO winners and runners-up lost 16p in the £ compared with 34p in the £ for horses that finished third or worse. When we look at Betfair SP results we see the following in terms of profit/loss to £1 level stakes:

 

 

Horses that finished first or second LTO have proved profitable to BSP. As a return on investment, this equates to 19p in the £ as opposed to losses of 17p in the £ for horses which finished third or worse LTO.

Of course, both groups have seen big priced winners pop up occasionally which one could argue has skewed both of their bottom lines. However, LTO winners/runners-up have combined to make a profit when the BSP price has been 12.0 or shorter, too. Under these price constraints they have returned just under 8 pence in the £. When we use this price limiter on horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO that group of runners produced losses of 18p in the £.

All the past evidence points to the fact that horses that finished first or second LTO should demand most of our attention when looking for handicap chase selections.

Trainers

Normally when I examine trainer data, we get some potential backing options. However, when we are dealing with competitive handicaps averaging 20+ runners, successful trainers are going to be difficult to find. Here is a list of all trainers who have had at least 25 handicap chase runners during the study period. The table is in alphabetical order:

 

 

Some big names have not managed a single winner in this timeframe including Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton. Following specific trainers in terms of backing to win looks a poor option based on the numbers we see in the table. Hence, I have looked at profit and losses to the Betfair Place market and one could argue a few trainers have the potential to be playable in that context. Here are the findings (biggest profit first):

 

 

Roughly one third of all Gordon Elliott’s Cheltenham Festival handicap chasers have finished in the first four over the past 15 years, which is quite incredible considering the fierce competition in these races. He looks a solid option backing to Betfair Place or each way with traditional bookies. Likewise, his runners should be considered if attacking the placepot.

Indeed, looking back at the bookmaker places paid last year, it's reasonable to assume six places at 1/5 odds (sometimes they paid down to 8th place). On that basis, and at Starting Price, the following returns could have been achieved - using BOG could only improve on these figures:

 

 

Naturally, there are some losing years, and 2024 may be another of those, but as part of a portfolio play, it may be worth keeping in mind.

Elsewhere, Messrs. Pipe, George, Twiston-Davies and Henderson should also not be written off in these races. Their runners would again be considerations for me, certainly as far as the placepot is concerned. One trainer that it seems sensible to steer right away from in Festival handicap chases is Paul Nicholls. Nicholls has long been one of the best trainers in the country but his record in these contests is extremely poor and offers dreadful value.

Finally on trainers, Venetia Williams' figures for both win and place have been skewed somewhat as her three winners were priced 72.43, 66.23 and 42 on the win market, 10.78, 11.88 and 7.2 on the place market. That said, the fact she's had three winners at huge prices means they're likely underestimated.

Run Style

My final port of call for the handicap chasers is run style. We have seen before in numerous articles I have written than run style can be a big factor. Below is a graph showing the A/E indices for the four individual run styles – led (L, 4 in the table below the chart), prominent (P, 3), mid division (MD, 2) and held up (HU, 1).

 

 

As we can see there is a huge bias to horses that lead early or race close to the pace. In fact, if you had been able to predict pre-race which horses would lead or race prominently you would have secured a whopping great profit on both groups to Industry SP, let alone BSP!

 

 

*in this table, the nulls are where - for much older results in our database - the run style has been impossible to score from the in-running comment. 4 is led, 3 prominent, 2 midfield, 1 held up.

There have been 12 horses that have led early and gone on to win a handicap chase at the festival since 2009 and of those, seven had led on their most recent start, while 10 had led in at least one of their last two starts. Also, nine of the 12 had ‘LTO four race pace totals’ of 12 or higher with three of them out-right top rated in terms of pace for their race. Hence, likely front runners should offer us value.

Bonus Handicap Chase Stats

I have a couple of additional handicap chase stats that I think are worth sharing.

Firstly, it looks best to ignore any horse that has failed to reach the first three in any of their last three runs. 288 handicap chasers have come to the Festival with this record and just eight have won (SR 2.8%) for BSP losses of £162.38 (ROI -56.4%).

And secondly, it is preferable to have run at Cheltenham LTO compared to many other courses. Below is a table looking at the performance of Festival handicap chasers since 2009 which had run LTO at any of Ascot, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Kempton, Leopardstown, Newbury and Sandown. These are the LTO courses that have supplied at least 100 runners:

 

 

There is a much higher strike rate for last time out Cheltenham runners but, more importantly, a small profit to BSP and a stand-out A/E index of 1.17 (next best LTO course 0.62).

*

Enough with the handicap chasers. It is time to delve into handicap hurdles now, a group in which I suspect it might be difficult to find strong positive ‘angles’ given the even bigger fields. However, I’ve been wrong many times in the past!

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Hurdles

Course form

I’ll start by once again looking at the past course form data in terms of A/E indices.

 

 

These figures are much closer than we saw with the handicap chase figures. There remains an edge to prior course winners but it is modest at best. Having said that, course winners have snuck into BSP profit, but the figures are skewed by some big priced successes.

Country of Breeding

Irish-breds were the value in handicap chases. What about over the smaller obstacles?

 

 

Irish-bred runners have again proved the best value, though not as dominant as over fences; still, they are certainly more playable than British-bred runners overall. IRE breds have also proved profitable to BSP, with nine winning years out of 15, albeit with a few big priced winners sprinkled into the mix. Such pedigrees clearly outperform their competition because if we compare Industry SP figures, Irish-breds lost only 8p in the £, but British- and French-breds lost a massive 43p and 32p in the £ respectively.

Days since last run

Will we see the same pattern that we did with handicap chasers where there seemed a value bias to horses which had run within the past five weeks (35 days):

 

 

The 50-to-77-day group here have provided the value from a win perspective. They have also provided comfortably the highest percentage of placed horses when comparing the five groups. Maybe freshening hurdlers up with this type of break is the optimum. My takeaway from this is that a medium-sized break from racing is much more a positive than a negative. Likewise, digging deeper into longer breaks, horses off the track for 91 days or more (13 weeks +) have won just three races from 181 runners with an A/E index of just 0.32.

Position Last Time Out

In handicap chases we saw that LTO winners and runners up looked the way to go taking all the data into consideration. In handicap hurdles it appears that we should primarily focus on LTO winners as the graph below illustrates when comparing A/E indices:

 

 

There is quite a significant difference in these values. Not only that, LTO winners have by far the better strike rate, both win and placed, and they have also made a blind profit to BSP. One fact to be aware of is that no LTO winner has won when returning from a layoff of 91 days or more (they are 0 from 39), correlating well with the data shared from the ‘days since last run’ section.

Trainers

Having seen the trainer data for handicap chases, I would expect a slew of low strike rates once more.  The table below is in alphabetical order with 25 runs again the minimum requirement:

 

 

Taking the group of trainers as a whole these are better figures than the chase ones. Gordon Elliott has an excellent record considering the field sizes involved, as has Dan Skelton. Alan King and the Hobbs/White combo have very poor win records, but both have been profitable backing to place on Betfair. Nigel Twiston-Davies has a poor place record on top of his 0 from 40 win performance, and might be one to swerve unless you really like one of his.

Run Style

Finally a look at the run style splits:

 

 

These are far more even than the handicap chase figures. Front runners have an edge but even if your crystal ball was in tip top shape and you had backed all early leaders pre-race, you would have made a loss to SP. Generally, looking at data for all courses, chases tend to offer front runners a much bigger edge than they do in hurdles. The Cheltenham Festival stats correlate strongly with the general findings.

Bonus Handicap Hurdle Stats

Before winding this piece up there are two additional stats I’d like to share with you regarding handicap hurdles.

Firstly, mares are rare starters in these races but when they do run, they have won 7 races from 86 for a BSP profit of £99.06 (ROI +115.2%) – their A/E index is an impressive 1.71.

Secondly, a group of horses to avoid are those aged 9 or older who have combined for just 3 wins from 203 runs, with huge losses to boot.

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: Main Takeaways

This has been quite a deep dive into handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival and I hope there are some solid profit pointers in its midst. Let me finish by focusing on what I think are the key stats from each race type.

Handicap Chase Takeaways

Handicap Hurdle Takeaways

 

*

The Cheltenham Festival handicaps are some of the most challenging wagering puzzles in the entire racing calendar. Finding winners is tough, and requires luck as well as good judgement. I hope that the snippets above will put you on the right side of the ledger come next Friday evening.

- DR

2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 15th March 2023)

/in , /by

Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins won for the first time in 2022!

Cheltenham Festival Trends

Wednesday 15th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

    1.30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2022 Winner: SIR GERHARD (8/11 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • 12 of the last 14 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
  • 18 of the last 22 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 22 of the last 28 winners won last time out
  • 27 of the last 28 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • The Irish have won 13 of the last 20 (8 of last 9)
  • Horses rated 150+ do well
  • 11 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
  • 23 of the last 28 winners (including last 11) had won at least one bumper race
  • 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6
  • In the last 11 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 21 of the 33 top 3 places
  • 22 of the last 24 were NH bred
  • 16 of the last 24 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 12 had won an Irish Point)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 5 winners in last 15 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5

Negatives….

  • Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 57 (since 1988) (but was last year’s winner Sir Gerhard)
  • Only two of the last 36 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 19 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 17 years)

2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2022 Winner: L’HOMME PRESSE (9/4 fav)
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Charlie Deutsch
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • 5 of the last 14 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Mighty Potter won this year’ race)
  • The last 21 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
  • 15 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
  • 25 of the last 28 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 13 of the last 16 (18 of last 23)
  • 11 of the last 17 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 13 winners were beaten on their chase debut
  • 8 of the last 15 winners had won a bumper before
  • 8 of the last 16 favourites won
  • The last 8 winners were rated 150+
  • 10 of the last 11 winners returned single-figures in the betting
  • 20 of the last 22 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
  • Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
  • Irish bred horses are 21 from the last 26
  • 11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 7 of the last 14 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 19 between them)
  • 25 of the last 30 were novice hurdling last season
  • 6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (54 of the last 56 winners had)
  • 12 of the last 16 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
  • The last 8 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 2 of the last 23 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
  • French bred horses are 1-from-39 (last 16 years, but last year’s winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
  • The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 11 years
  • Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 23 winners)
  • Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
  • Horses in headgear have a poor record

    2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

2022 Winner: COMMANDER OF FLEET (50/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Shane Fitzgerald
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 18 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 18 of the last 22 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had run at the Festival before (8 had top 4 finish)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 140’s
  • 14 of the last 23 winners aged 6 or 7
  • 9 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 12 of the last 17 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 21 of the last 28 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 13 years)
  • 10 of the last 21 winners were French-Bred
  • 15 of the last 29 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 14)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (12 of last 14 winners)
  • 15 of the last 18 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 3 from 12
  • 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
  • The last 4 winners wore headgear

Negatives….

  • Just one winning favourite in the last 19 years (2020)
  • Only 4 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
  • Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 47 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 44 since 2010

    3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

2022 Winner: ENERGUMENE
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 22 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 10 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 24 of the last 38 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 23 between them
  • Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 11
  • 28 of the last 36 winners aged between 7-9
  • 14 of the last 21 winners won last time out
  • 17 of the last 20 winners had run that calendar year
  • 39 of the last 41 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 16 of the last 23 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 16 winners were French-bred
  • 12 of the last 20 winners were second season chasers
  • 16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
  • 20 of the last 24 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 16 of the last 23 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
  • 7 of the last 12 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
  • Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 39 years
  • Just 1 winner in last 18 had run 4+ times that season
  • Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 1 win in the race (Energumene) (1-from-14)
  • Just 1 of the last 21 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 13 of the last 17 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
  • Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
  • Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 48 years
  • Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 44 years
  • 5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
  • Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

    4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

2022 Winner: DELTA WORK (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 15 of the last 18 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 15 of the last 18 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 21 of the last 25 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 9 of the last 18 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
  • 14 of the last 18 winners had run on the course before
  • Respect jockeys Keith Donoghue (3 wins) and Davy Russell (2 wins)
  • 14 or the last 18 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • 8 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or 9
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 12 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
  • 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
  • 10 of the last 18 winners had run in the NH Chase before
  • 5 of the last 8 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
  • The last 7 winners wore headgear
  • 8 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but last year’s winner (Delta Work) was running for the first time over the X-Country course
  • Just 3 of the last 13 winners won their last race
  • Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 100, but the 2020 winner was 6
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 16
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

    4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

2022 Winner: GLOBAL CITIZEN
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Kielan Woods
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more
  • 16 of the last 19 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 19 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 10 runnings
  • 9 of the last 13 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 14 winners novices or second season chasers
  • 11 of the last 17 winners aged between 6-8
  • 13 of the last 19 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 19
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 11 placed)
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 6 of the last 14 runnings
  • 5 of the last 8 winners won after a 91+ day break
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-147
  • 10 of the last 12 winners rated between 138-150
  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more in weight
  • 20 of the last 23 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 27 runnings, but last year’s winner was a 10 year-old
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 16
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 34 since 2005
  • Only 2 of the last 18 winners were favourites
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

    5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

2022 Winner: FACILE VEGA (15/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

  • 28 of the last 30 had won last time out (all of last 19)
  • 23 of the last 30 winners trained in Ireland
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (23 from 39)
  • 21 of the last 30 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 23 of the last 30 were Irish-bred
  • 11 of the last 22 winners were second season horses
  • 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 19 of the last 30 winners aged 5 years-old
  • 19 of the last 21 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 12 of the last 20 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 13 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (12 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
  • The Irish lead the British 24-7 in the race history
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
  • 11 of the last 20 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • Mares are 3-19 in the last 18 runnings
  • 6 of the last 7 winners had run in February
  • 3 of the last 4 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
  • Just 2 of the last 12 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
  • Only 4 of the last 12 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 65 since 2000 (Cue Card)
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 17 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

2022 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 16th March 2022)

/in , , /by

Each day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins is yet to win!

Cheltenham Festival Trends

Wednesday 16th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

 

1.30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2021 Winner: BOB OLINGER (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore


Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 5 of the last 8 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • 11 of the last 13 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
  • 17 of the last 21 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 21 of the last 27 winners won last time out
  • 26 of the last 27 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • The Irish have won 12 of the last 19 (7 of last 8)
  • Horses rated 150+ do well
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
  • 22 of the last 27 winners (including last 11) had won at least one bumper race
  • All of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6
  • In the last 10 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 18 of the 30 top 3 places
  • 21 of the last 23 were NH bred
  • 15 of the last 23 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 12 had won an Irish Point)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 9 placed in last 16 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 4

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 56 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 35 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 18 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 16 years)

 

 

2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2021 Winner: MONKFISH (1/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend  

Pluses….

  • 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 6th Feb) that season
  • The last 20 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
  • 14 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
  • 24 of the last 27 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 12 of the last 15 (17 of last 22)
  • 10 of the last 16 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 12 winners were beaten on their chase debut
  • 8 of the last 14 winners had won a bumper before
  • 7 of the last 15 favourites won
  • The last 7 winners were rated 150+
  • 9 of the last 10 winners returned single-figures in the betting
  • 19 of the last 21 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
  • Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
  • Irish bred horses are 21 from the last 25
  • 10 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 7 of the last 13 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 18 between them)
  • 24 of the last 29 were novice hurdling last season
  • 6 of the last 12 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (53 of the last 55 winners had)
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
  • The last 7 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 2 of the last 22 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
  • French bred horses are 0-from-36 (last 15 years)
  • Colin Tizzard is 0-from-10 over the last 10 years
  • Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 22 winners)
  • Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 30

 

    2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

 

2021 Winner: HEAVEN HELP US (33/1)
Trainer – Paul Hennessy
Jockey – Richard Condon

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 17 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 18 of the last 21 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 9 of the last 13 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were rated in the 140’s
  • 14 of the last 22 winners aged 6 or 7
  • 8 of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 12 of the last 16 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 20 of the last 27 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (6 wins in last 12 years)
  • 10 of the last 20 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 15 of the last 28 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (6 of the last 13)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (12 of last 13 winners)
  • 15 of the last 17 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 11
  • 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
  • The last 3 winners wore headgear

Negatives….

  • Just one winning favourite in the last 18 years (2020)
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
  • Just 4 winners since 2000 aged 8+
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 45 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 42 since 2010

 

    3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

2021 Winner: PUT THE KETTLE ON (17/2)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 21 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 9 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 24 of the last 37 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 9 of the last 14 between them
  • Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 10
  • 27 of the last 35 winners aged between 7-9
  • 14 of the last 20 winners won last time out
  • 16 of the last 19 winners had run that calendar year
  • 38 of the last 40 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 15 of the last 22 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 7 of the last 15 winners were French-bred
  • 11 of the last 19 winners were second season chasers
  • 15 of the last 17 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
  • 19 of the last 23 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 16 of the last 22 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
  • 7 of the last 11 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
  • Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 38 years
  • Just 1 winner in last 17 had run 4+ times that season
  • Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 3-from-31
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race (0-from-12)
  • Just 1 of the last 20 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 12 of the last 16 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
  • Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 47 years
  • Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 43 years
  • Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

 

    4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

 

2021 Winner: TIGER ROLL (9/2)
Trainer – Denise Foster
Jockey – Keith Donoghue  

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 14 of the last 17 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 20 of the last 24 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 9 of the last 17 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • 14 of the last 17 winners had run on the course before
  • Respect Keith Donoghue (3 wins) and Davy Russell (2 wins)
  • 13 or the last 17 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or 9
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 11 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
  • 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
  • 9 of the last 17 winners had run in the NH Chase before
  • 4 of the last 7 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
  • The last 6 winners all wore headgear

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
  • Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 99, but the 2020 winner was 6
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 15
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

 

    4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

 

2021 Winner: SKY PIRATE (14/1)
Trainer – Jonjo O’Neill
Jockey – Nick Schofield

Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 8 winners carried 11st or more
  • 15 of the last 18 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 18 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 9 runnings
  • 8 of the last 12 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 13 winners novices or second season chasers
  • 11 of the last 16 winners aged between 6-8
  • 12 of the last 18 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 18
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 10 placed)
  • The last 11 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 6 of the last 13 runnings
  • 5 of the last 7 winners won after a 91+ day break
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were rated between 138-147
  • 10 of the last 11 winners rated between 138-150
  • 8 of the last 11 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 19 of the last 22 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 wins from the last 26 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 15
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 30 since 2005
  • Only 2 of the last 16 winners were favourites
  • Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

 

    5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

 

2021 Winner: SIR GERHARD
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

  • 27 of the last 29 had won last time out (all of last 18)
  • 22 of the last 29 winners trained in Ireland
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (22 from 38)
  • 20 of the last 29 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 22 of the last 29 were Irish-bred
  • 11 of the last 21 winners were second season horses
  • 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 18 of the last 29 winners aged 5 years-old
  • 18 of the last 20 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 12 of the last 19 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 12 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (11 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
  • The Irish lead the British 23-7 in the race history
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
  • 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • Mares are 3-18 in the last 18 runnings
  • 5 of the last 6 winners had run in February
  • Last 3 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
  • Just 2 of the last 11 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
  • 4 of the last 11 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 64 since 2000 (Cue Card)
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

 

 

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

 

2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2020)

/in , /by

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY FOUR: Friday 13th March 2020

 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2019 Winner: PENTLAND HILLS (20/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses…..

  • 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 9 of the last 15 places (last 5 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 15 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 16 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 8 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles last time
  • 6 of the last 11 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 6 years

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 12
  • Willie Mullins has a poor record – currently 0-from-27


14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2020 Winner: CH’TIBELLO (12/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
  • 4 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • 13 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 7 of the last 12 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 5 of the last 11 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 12 of the last 14 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 12 of the last 16 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 16 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 11 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 28 (+18pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 33 (+46pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 4 renewals (last 2)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (146 runners)
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: MINELLA INDO (50/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 14 of the last 15 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • All of the last 15 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 5 of the last 8 winners had won a Point
  • 8 of the last 15 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 15 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 13 of the last 15 had run in a race over 3m
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 14 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 1 from 35 in the race
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record
  • Only 4 of the last 15 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 17 of the last 19 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 17 of the last 20 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • All of the last 20 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • 15 of the last 19 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 16 of the last 19 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 19 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 11 of the last 12 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 16 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 14 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 14 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record

 

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 71)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 5 from last 33
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins has only won the race once (2019), 1 from 30 (had last 4 of the last 7 seconds and the 2019 winner though)
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 1 of the last 12 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: HAZEL HILL (7/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Rowley
Jockey – Mr Alex Edwards

Pluses…..

  • 25 of the last 29 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 25 of the last 34 won last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 8 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 27 of the last 31 started out in point-to-point races
  • 11 of the last 14 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 9)
  • 5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 8 of the last 11 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 7, rated 138+)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 43 years aged 12 or older
  • 26 of the last 28 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Just 1 winner since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 236 since 1990
  • Just 3 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2019 Winner: CROCO BAY (66/1)
Trainer – Ben Case
Jockey – Kielan Woods

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners carried 11st or less
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
  • The last 9 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 win from the last 24 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 7 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 14
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 28 since 2005
  • Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

 

 

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: EARLY DOORS (5/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 9 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 11 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • 10 of the last 11 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 4 of the last 6 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 6 of the last 9 (5 making handicap debuts)
  • 31 of the 33 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 9 of the 11 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 5 of the 11 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 6 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 7 of the 11 winners were rated 133-139
  • 7 of the 11 winners returned at a double-figure price (9 of the last 11 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 10 of last 11 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 16 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 9 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 7 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 11-year history (7/10 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 54
  • Only 3 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-87

 

=================================================================

Trainers Quotes

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

 

=================================================================

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2020)

/in , /by

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY THREE: Thursday 12th March 2020


13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase   2m 4f

2019 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL 3/1 fav
Trainer – Philip Hobbs
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • 7 of the 9 winners were Irish-trained
  • The last 9 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 9 winners
  • 7 of the last 9 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • 7 of the last 9 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
  • 8 of the last 9 past winners had run at the Festival before (4 had won)
  • 8 of the 9 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 7 of the last 9 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 9 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 8 of the last 9 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 7 of the last 9 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 9 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 6 of the last 9 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 6 of last 9 renewals

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just two British-trained winners so far
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 9
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 4 winning favourites in 9 runnings (1 co)
  • Just 1 of the last 9 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • Just 1 winner had been off for more than 54 days


14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS 4/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 10 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
  • Irish have won the last 4 runnings
  • 9 of the last 12 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
  • 10 of the last 19 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 9 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • The last 9 winners were rated between 138-148
  • 9 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 19 winners won their last race
  • 3 of the last 11 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 too
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won the last two runnings
  • Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 4 winners

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • Horses that have won 3+ times that season are just 1 from 10
  • Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
  • 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
  • French-bred horses are currently on a run of 2-86
  • All horses rated 150+ since 2000 have failed to finish in the top 2
  • 2 winning favourites in last 14 years
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 18 (One third and two 2nds in the last 6 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 41


14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

2019 Winner: FRODON (9/2)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Bryony Frost

Pluses….

  • 21 of the 29 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • 13 of the last 15 had won at Cheltenham previously
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 26)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 12 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 161+
  • 4 of the last 15 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 11 of last 15 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • 7 of the last 8 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time headgear (2 from 8)
  • 8 of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Last 6 winners were French-bred

Negatives….

  • The Irish are 3 from 51 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • Avoid horses aged 11 or older
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 4 of the last 12 won last time out
  • All winners ran 4 or less times that season
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

 

15:30 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 3m


2019 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (11/8 fav)
Trainer – Emma Lavelle
Jockey – Aidan Coleman

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 15 won last time out
  • 11 of the last 19 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 27 of the last 30 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
  • 17 of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 18 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 15 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 13 of the last 15 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race
  • 15 of the last 23 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (2 from 20)
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
  • Avoid front runners
  • The Irish are have won the race just three times since 1995
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
  • Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 67
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 55)

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

2019 Winner: SIRUH DU LAC (9/2)
Trainer – Nick Williams
Jockey – Lizzie Kelly

Pluses….

  • 27 of the last 32 winners were officially rated 141 or less
  • 10 of the last 11 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • 10 of the last 16 winners had won a race in Feb or March
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 22 runnings
  • 16 of the last 19 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 20 of the last 28 winners had run at the Festival before (but 7 of last 9 were having Festival debut)
  • 19 of the last 20 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had 9 or less chase runs
  • 17 of the last 20 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1951
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 14 years
  • Only 3 of last 25 won with 11st+
  • Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have an overall poor record, but the 2019 winner did defy this trend.
  • Only 2 of the last 16 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

16:50 Daylesford Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f


2019 Winner: EGLANTINE DU SEUIL 50/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Noel Fehily

  • A new race (Just four renewals)
  • Favourites have won 3 of the four runnings
  • 3 of the last 4 winners won last time out 3 of the 4 winners were French-bred
  • 3 of the 4 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 4 runnings (just 3 runners)
  • All four winners have been aged 5 years-old
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019
  • Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f


2019 Winner: ANY SECOND NOW (6/1)
Trainer – Ted Walsh
Jockey – Mr Derek O’Connor

Pluses….

  • Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
  • 9 of the last 12 winners failed to win earlier that season
  • 3 of the last 9 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
  • The last 8 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 7 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
    8 of the last 11 winners ran in February
  • Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 18 of the last 20 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 8 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
  • 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 11 winners
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
    Owner JP McManus often does well in the race

Negatives….

  • Just three Irish winners for 36 years (but have won 3 of the last 6)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 21
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 0 from 59 since 2005
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 89 since 2009
  • Just 1 of the last 17 winners won last time out

=================================================================

Trainers Quotes

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

 

=================================================================

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

2021 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO

/in , /by

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY TWO: Wednesday 11th March 2020

 

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle   2m 5f


2019 Winner: CITY ISLAND 8/1
Trainer –Martin Brassil
Jockey – Mark Walsh


Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 4 of the last 6 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
  • 15 of the last 19 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 19 of the last 25 winners won last time out
  • 24 of the last 25 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • The Irish have won 10 of the last 17 (5 of last 6)
  • Horses rated 150+ do well
  • The last 10 winners all won at least one bumper race
  • All of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • In the last 9 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 15 of the 27 top 3 places
  • 19 of the last 21 were NH bred
  • 13 of the last 21 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (6 of the last 10 had won an Irish Point)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 7 placed in last 15 years

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 55 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 34 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 17 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 14 years)


14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

2019 Winner: TOPOFTHEGAME 4/1
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden

Pluses….

  • 4 of the last 11 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4th Feb) that season
  • The last 18 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
  • 23 of the last 25 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 11 of the last 13 (16 of last 20)
  • 9 of the last 14 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were beaten on their chase debut
  • 7 of the last 12 winners had won a bumper before
  • 6 of the last 13 favourites won (50%)
  • Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
  • Irish bred horses are 19 from the last 23
  • 8 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 6 of the last 11 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
  • 22 of the last 27 were novice hurdling last season
  • 4 of the last 10 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (51 of the last 53 winners had)
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
  • Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 2 of the last 20 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • The last 21 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have lost
  • Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 20 winners)
  • Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 29

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

2019 Winner: WILLIAM HENRY (28/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 15 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 9 of the last 11 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were rated in the 140’s
  • 7 of the last 10 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 11 of the last 14 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 25 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (5 wins in last 10 years)
  • 9 of the last 18 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 13 of the last 26 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 11)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 11 winners)
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 10
  • 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)

Negatives….

  • No winning favourite in the last 16 years
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 305 to even place since 1999
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
  • Only 4 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival previously
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 35 runners – just two placed inside the top 2

 

15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

2019 Winner: ALTIOR 4/11 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 19 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 7 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 23 of the last 35 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 12 between them
  • Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 8
  • 14 of the last 18 winners won last time out
  • 16 of the last 17 winners had run that calendar year
  • 36 of the last 38 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 15 of the last 20 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 6 of the last 13 winners were French-bred
  • 11 of the last 17 winners were second season chasers
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
  • 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 15 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
  • 6 of the last 10 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
  • Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 37 years
  • Just 1 winner in last 15 had run 4+ times that season
  • Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 1-from-30
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
  • Just 1 of the last 18 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
  • Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 46 years
  • Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 41 years


16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase   3m 7f

2019 Winner: TIGER ROLL 5/4 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 13 of the last 15 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 8 of the last 15 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 16 between them)
  • 12 or the last 15 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 10 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 runnings
  • 3 of the last 5 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
  • Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 97
  • Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13


16:50 Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: BAND OF OUTLAWS7/2 fav
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – J J Slevin  

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 15 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
  • French bred horses have a good record
  • Respect Fillies
  • 7 of the last 9 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 10 of the last 15 had run in the last 25 days
  • David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
  • 6 of the last 8 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
  • 10 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were ALL rated between 124-134
  • 8 of the last 12 winners were British-trained
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 10 runnings
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

 

Negatives….

  • Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 32 between them
  • Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)
  • Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
  • Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are 0 from the last 10 years
  • British-bred runners are currently 0-51

 

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

2019 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 2/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd

Pluses….

  • 25 of the last 27 had won last time out (all of last 16)
  • 20of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (20 from 36)
  • 4 of the last 10 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 18 of the last 27 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 20 of the last 27 were Irish-bred
  • 10 of the last 19 winners were second season horses
  • 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 17 of the last 27 winners aged 5 years-old
  • 17 of the last 19 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 17 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 10 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (9 winners) – also had first three in 2018, but is just 3 from last 35 runners
  • The Irish lead the British 21-7 in the race history
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
  • 9 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 60 since 2000 (Cue Card)
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

 

=================================================================

 

Trainers Quotes

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!! 

FIND OUT MORE HERE

 

=================================================================

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

2021 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE

/in , /by

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY ONE: Tuesday 10th March 2020


13:30 – SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: KLASSICAL DREAM 6/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Ruby Walsh

Pluses…..

  • 20 of the last 23 winners won their last race
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the market
  • The last 8 winners have all won a graded novice hurdle before
  • 19 of the last 25 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Irish-trained horses have won 16 of the last 28 runnings
  • 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 14 of the last 15 runnings
  • Willie Mullins has won the race 5 times since 2007 and for 4 of the last 7 years
  • 23 of the last 25 winners had raced that same calendar year
  • Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 7 runnings.

Negatives…..

  • Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 23. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
  • Since 1992 all horses (37) wearing head-gear have been beaten
  • We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
  • Just 2 of the last 17 winners came here unbeaten
  • Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-7 in the last decade
  • Nicky Henderson is 1 from 36 since 1993 (Altior his only winner for this period)

 

 

14:10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase   2m

2019 Winner: DUC DES GENIEVRES 5/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

 

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 15 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
  • 14 of the last 20 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase that season
  • The last 10 winners won last time out (plus 15 of the last 19)
  • 19 of the last 20 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 12 of the last 16 winners at run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
  • 11 of the last 19 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 6 times
  • Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 5 runnings (all French-bred)

Negatives…..

  • Only 2 of the last 33 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
  • Just two of the last 29 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
  • Only 3 of the last 28 winners were older than 7 years-old
  • The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
  • The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
  • Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
  • 5 year-olds are 0-11 in the last 12 years
  • Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase  3m 1f 

2019 Winner: BEWARE THE BEAR 10/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Jeremiah McGrath

 

Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 20 winners were officially rated 143 or less
  • 14 of the last 19 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 16 of the last 20 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
  • 14 of the last 19 were novices or second season chasers
  • 7 of the last 12 winners were rated between 142-146 (6 between 142-145)
  • Horses rated 140+ have won 12 of the last 19 runnings
  • 9 of the last 17 won last time out
  • Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
  • 3 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
  • 7 of the last 8 winners wore headgear
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
  • Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
  • All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
  • The last 5 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting

Negatives….

  • Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 9 of the last 15 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8
  • Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 48 to even get placed
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 23
  • Only 1 winner in the last 11 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
  • Only 4 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
  • The Irish have won just 2 of the last 51 runnings (since 1967)

 

15:30 Unibet Champion Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: ESPOIR D’ALLEN 16/1
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

  • 30 of the last 36 won last time out
  • Horses unbeaten that season often do well (7 of last 9)
  • The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 17 of the last 21 runnings between them
  • The Irish have won 13 of the last 21 runnings
  • Owner JP McManus has won 5 of the last 10 (8 in total)
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 12 of the last 21 winners had won at the Festival before
  • 23 of the last 35 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
  • The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 4 places in last 12 runnings)
  • 14 of the last 24 winners started as flat horses
  • Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times, including two of the last 3 years
  • 5 of the last 11 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
  • 5 year-olds are just 2 from 102 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
  • Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-28 in the last 37 runnings)
  • Just 1 of the last 13 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
  • Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26th Dec) winners are just 3 from 27
  • Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975

 

16:10 Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle   2m 4f

2019 Winner: ROKSANA 10/1
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

 

Pluses….

  • Follow Irish-trained mares (10 of last 12)
  • The favourite (or 2nd fav) have won 10 of the last 12 runnings
  • 7 of the last 12 favourites have won
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 2m4f
  • Willie Mullins have trained 9 of the last 11 winners
  • Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
  • Novices generally do well
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
  • 6 of the last 8 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
  • Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
  • Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

Negatives….

  • Avoid front-runners
  • British-bred mares are currently 0-78 (only 7 have been placed)
  • All 27 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)
  • Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
  • No ex-flat horses have won the race yet

16:50 Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: A PLUS TARD
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
  • 14 of the last 15 winners had won no more than twice over fences (11 had won no more than once)
  • 14 of the last 15 winners raced in the last 45 days
  • Respect 6 and 7 year-olds
  • 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase
  • 6 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Look for any horses wearing first-time headgear
  • 6 of last 11 won last time out
  • 8 of the last 13 winners had run in a bumper race before
  • 13 of the last 15 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners (1 win, 3 2nds, 1 3rd)
  • Respect Henderson, O’Neill & Hobbs runners

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses outside the top five in the betting
  • Avoid horses with less than 4 starts in the last 12 months
  • The Irish are just 2 from the last 15 runnings
  • Look for horses rated 141 or higher

 

17:30 National Hunt Challenge Chase   3m6f

2019 Winner: LE BREUIL 14/1
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Jamie Codd

 

Pluses…..

  • 11 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • Favourites have won 3 of the last 10 runnings
  • 4 of the last 9 winners were top-rated
  • 5 of the last 9 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
  • 7 of the last 13 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
  • Note horses wearing headgear
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were rated 145 (or more)
  • Look out for JP McManus-owned (6 winners) runners
  • Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 14 rides)
  • Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 6 of the last 9 (2 each)
  • Gordon Elliott has won the race 3 times from just 7 runners

Negatives….

  • 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 80 since 1989
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 18
  • Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
  • Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
  • Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 8)

 

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

The REAL Reason The Irish Dominated Cheltenham

/in , /by

Last week, British-trained horses received a 'doing' the like of which had never before been witnessed. The Irish minority rode, almost literally, roughshod over the vast numerical superiority of the domestic defences in a manner that suggested this was more than a mere perfect storm.

One leading Irish trainer has mooted that the root cause lies in British racing's infatuation with high value handicaps, but that feels wide of the mark. Others argue that the Irish are better at 'plotting one up': even if that's true, the extent to which they outmanoeuvred both the BHA handicapping team and the British training ranks also feels somewhat of a convenient pigeonhole.

No, as always, the answer is likely to be far more nuanced than 'this' or 'that'; more likely a combination of elements which have been brewing for some time. To understand what went wrong this time, a spot of historical context is required. Let's start with the most basic of barometers, the UK vs Ireland tally for the last five Cheltenham Festivals.

 

Trainer location of winning horses, Cheltenham Festival 2012-17

Year Races UK Ire
2012 27 22 5
2013 27 13 14
2014 27 15 12
2015 27 14 13
2016 28 13 15
2017 28 9 19

 

This chart tells the story rather more succinctly:

 

Ireland's dominance is no overnight shock

Ireland's dominance is no overnight shock

 

In terms of pure winners, Ireland has been improving its tally significantly since 2013, and actually only enhanced their win score by four this term. That, of course, equates to an eight race swing and the smallest number of prizes for the home team ever.

But win samples are typically small, however, and this one is restricted to just 28 (27 prior to the introduction of the mares' novices' hurdle last year) races. So what of the place data?

 

Trainer location of placed horses, Cheltenham Festival 2012-17

Year Places UK Ire
2012 91 58 33
2013 90 53 35
2014 92 56 36
2015 92 48 44
2016 93 48 45
2017 94 53 41

 

Here's the chart for the place data:

 

The place data is a little more equivocal

The place data is a little more equivocal

 

Notice how there is convergence in the place data but not the overlap of the win graph? This is significant because it suggests that the emerald dominance of 2017, while hardly a surprise, has been magnified somewhat by the microcosm of the winners dataset.

[Incidentally, I prefer places to percentage of runners beaten because, aside from the challenges of quantifying non-completions, many horses are eased off significantly when their chance has gone, thus further muddying what is already at best translucent water]

Before moving on, let us also consider the number of placed horses as a percentage of the number of runners from UK and Ireland. This obviously requires us to know the number of runners from each 'country' taking part, which gets interesting. Check this out:

 

Placed horses as a percentage of runners (right hand columns)

Year Runners UK Ire Places UK Ire UK% Ire%
2012 483 356 126 91 58 33 16.29% 26.19%
2013 464 355 106 90 53 35 14.93% 33.02%
2014 487 363 121 92 56 36 15.43% 29.75%
2015 468 321 146 92 48 44 14.95% 30.14%
2016 492 346 143 93 48 45 13.87% 31.47%
2017 488 325 160 94 53 41 16.31% 25.63%

*there have been a few non-UK/Irish runners as well, hence the small disparity between total runners and the UK/Ire aggregate

 

In case you missed it, let me help you out:

  1. The home team had a higher percentage of their horses placed last week than in any other Festival in the sample.
  2. Ireland registered its lowest percentage of placed horses to runners in the six year sample period last week.

 

Why? Simple. Ireland had their biggest raiding party since 2012 (at least), and Britain had very close to its smallest defensive battalion, 2017's 325 only surpassed by 2015's 321 (spread across one fewer race).

The graph of places as a percentage of runners looks like this:

 

Cheltenham Festival places as a percentage of runners: UK vs Ireland

Cheltenham Festival places as a percentage of runners: UK vs Ireland

 

In terms of the numerical strength of the Irish team, between 2012 and 2014 their runners amounted to circa 25%, against a British squad of 75%. From 2015 to 2017, that quarter to three-quarters was more like a third to two-thirds. Last week, Irish runners accounted for 32.8% of the entries, their highest figure as a percentage of runners in the sample, and fully ten per cent more in absolute terms than any other year (160 versus their next largest team of 146, in 2015).

So it may actually be the quantity as much as the quality of the Irish runners that is responsible for their huge margin of victory in everyone's favourite pointless contest, the Betbright Cup.

Why?

We now join the ranks of the hand-wringers to ask why the Irish are winning more Cheltenham Festival races. As noted above, the question doesn't relate solely to the most recent renewal, but to each one since 2013. What has changed during that time to bring about such an upturn in Irish fortunes? Let's consider three possible contributory factors:

- Prize money

- Handicap ratings

- Purchase price / source of acquisition

Prize Money

Willie Mullins posited over the weekend that perhaps owners want to have horses trained in Ireland due to the greater prize money, and because of the lesser programme book reliance on higher value handicaps. A quick review of last week's winners lends some credence to Willie's mullings: of the 19 Irish-trained winners, eight of them by my reckoning - Special Tiara, Supasundae, Sizing John, Yorkhill, Nichols Canyon, Let's Dance, Penhill and Rock The World - are owned by 'Brits'.

But with the exceptions of exiled Americans, Susannah Ricci and Mrs Rowley-Williams (now moved back to US), owner of Special Tiara, the others all have horses trained in Britain as well. True, the Wylies seem to be phasing out their Paul Nicholls team, but this looks more in the Gigginstown vein of performance-based decision-making rather than as a result of prize money, though a case can certainly be made for the latter...

The below table shows the five year prize money accrued by four of the top owners to have split their teams across UK and Ireland (figures derived from ownership data at RacingPost.com).

 

Owner Ire Prize Ire Runs Ire £/Run UK Prize UK Runs UK £/Run Differential
Ricci £4,262,102 545 £7,820 £2,462,702 116 £21,230 2.71
Potts £1,644,110 456 £3,606 £769,725 50 £15,395 4.27
Wylie £1,910,689 174 £10,981 £1,701,885 209 £8,143 0.74
McManus £8,960,364 4238 £2,114 £7,994,949 2669 £2,995 1.42

 

Although there is unquestionably some 'cause and effect' as a result of these owners having won at Cheltenham, that's precisely why they're included in the table. The 'Differential' column shows that, while the Wylies won only 74% as much from their UK endeavours compared with their Irish portfolios, Teams Ricci and Potts did much, much better with their British teams.

But probably the best barometer of this line of argument is JP McManus. Ol' Green n'Gold supports racing to a huge degree on both sides of the pond, and it can clearly be seen on which side his bread is best buttered. McManus' UK contingent net him 42% more per run than his Irish legion.

The fact is that Willie Mullins has performed incredibly well - peerlessly, in fact - at the Cheltenham Festival for a number of years. That success brings 'overseas investment', regardless of whether there are valuable Graded pots or handicaps in the run of things. Indeed, owners like Ricci are on record as saying that they are not interested in winning outside of Cheltenham in March, a week which is the alpha and omega of their involvement in the ownership game.

So whilst there is some smoke to Mullins' contention, it seems unlikely there is much in the way of fire generating those plumes.

Handicap Ratings

More interesting, perhaps, and going beyond the handicap races, is the allocation of handicap ratings. Much has been made - before, during and since the Festival - of the re-assessment of Irish horses for British races. The consensus beforehand from the Irish camp was that this was unjust. With the raiders claiming seven of the ten handicap prizes, there is less crabbing now than before, but the question remains: why were the Irish horses largely elevated from their domestic perches?

The answer may lie not in the errancy of the Irish handicapper's work, but perhaps in a general overstatement in the British figures. Put another way, it may be that the British horses are rated too highly by the BHA 'cappers rather than the Irish too low by theirs.

To be brutally honest, I struggled to think of an effective (and time-efficient) method to test this hypothesis, and so will leave it as a question that others of appropriate informational means may crunch and confirm/refute the suggestion.

I definitely have a 'feeling' that some horses, especially in the two mile divisions, both hurdle and chase, have been significantly over-rated. Such conjecture should have no place in a pseudo-empirical article, so I'll leave it at that.

UPDATE: I've been made aware of two articles from last year covering the inflation in UK ratings. This one is from Simon Rowlands, and this one from Kevin Blake, are both excellent corroboration of the perception which, it seems, is more than that.

Purchase Price / Source

One thing that fascinates me, as a jealous owner peering through the windows into the Tattersalls Cheltenham sale and the like, is how purchase price and source impact on Festival prospects. As more largely untested stock changes hands for north of £300,000 a head, is there any evidence of a correlation between purchase price and performance in the Cotswolds in March? Or are the winners arriving in the hands of their owners by other means than public auction?

To evaluate this, I looked at the winners of the last six renewals of each of the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup. That's the same time frame used above for the UK / Ireland comparisons and gives us 24 horses - minus multiple winners - to look at. Remarkably, the only multiple winner in the period was Sprinter Sacre, whose story is an interesting one to which we'll briefly return shortly.

Of the 23 individual winners of the four main Championship races since 2012, 15 were acquired privately. The remaining eight including two home-bred's - Synchronised and Coneygree, both Gold Cup winners - and six purchased for or by their current owners at public auction.

The highest price paid at public auction for a winner of the Champion Hurdle (one), Stayers' Hurdle (two), or Gold Cup (three) was the £75,000 Jim Culloty (on behalf of Dr Ronan Lambe) gave for Lord Windermere.

This year's Gold Cup winner, Sizing John, was bought as a yearling for just €16,000, Thistlecrack cost €43,000, and Bob's Worth (RSA and Gold Cup winner) was a mere £20,000. Using 90p to €1 as a conversion metric, the six Championship winners sold at public auction averaged at £32,717. The median was £24,100.

We also know something of some of those acquired privately. For example, we know that Champion Chaser, Sire De Grugy, was bought for €50,000. And it is reputed that Sprinter Sacre, who won two Champion Chases, was part of a 'job lot' of 22 horses purchased from France for €300,000. While it may be unwise to apportion that price tag equally across the whole draft, we do arrive at a figure of €13,636, or £12,272 using the 90p/€1 conversion principle. For us small-time syndicateers there is something comforting in such mathematical folly.

Perhaps Cole Harden is worth a mention, too. He was led out not sold at £30,000 after winning his debut bumper. Acquired privately soon after, it is highly possible that the purchaser paid in the region of £35,000 given that the auctioneer will usually 'phantom bid' up to just below the reserve price.

It seems that only fools rush in via the sales ring and, although the auction houses probably don't want to admit it, they appear to be doing considerably better than purchasers from these multi-hundred thousand pound/euro deals over jumps: most of the best horses are either bought privately or snapped up for relative pennies.

In Summary...

There are a number of key takeaways from the data posted in this article. Probably the hardest to swallow is that Ireland actually under-performed against their numerical representation this year, in spite of 'winning' 19-9 in terms of race victors.

The natural selectivity of Irish runners - it's a long, expensive journey for a horse with no chance - is also a factor, though this year was one where expense was waived in favour of 'having a runner' more than ever before. This was supported by those higher Irish handicap ratings, meaning more of their horses actually got a run than would have been the case of their domestic pegs.

Tully East (Ire 133, UK 138), winner of the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase, was the most notable beneficiary as his Irish mark was insufficient to make the cut for the race.

There is unlikely to be anything material in the Mullins line about British fascination with a handicap-driven programme, certainly if the major owners are anything to go by. But I'm fascinated by the evidence published by Messrs Rowlands and Blake around potential inflation in UK handicap ratings: it looks like there may well be something in that.

And if you love the idea of owning a Cheltenham Festival champion, it would appear that your best chance is to either a) acquire privately, either from France or from a small stable out of an Irish bumper; or b) buy a relatively cheap ticket at the sales and hope that your luck is in!

So here's to next year, when I expect Ireland to have less winners, perhaps significantly less on the evidence of their overall performance rather than merely the microcosm of the winners' enclosure.

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1