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There are some nice, competitive betting heats on Saturday and the 1.50 at Sandown, live on ITV4 looks a very interesting contest.
With just eight runners this is hopefully a very solvable puzzle and assuming no non runners (fingers crossed) it has a nice each way shape to it.
Pace
A chase ‘sprint’ here which could end up favouring those nearer the pace than those held up. Let’s take a look at the pace data over this course and distance in similar ground in field sizes between 7 and 10 runners.
There isn’t necessarily a front running advantage here which is what we often see but prominent racers do seem to be quite strongly favoured with a very profitable WIN PL (the only run style that is profitable to back blind) and an IV of 1.64. Leaders and those who race in mid division seem pretty evenly matched which backs up the theory that the sweet spot here is to race prominently. Meanwhile the hold up performers here do not perform well. They have a very poor win and place strike rate compared with other run styles and have produced a WIN PL of -42.
The pace map for this race looks interesting given the above information. For a start, the two market leaders are likely to be given contrasting rides with Moonlighter likely to be very close to the pace and Ibleo likely to be ridden much more patiently.
Paddy’s Poem seems to be the main pace angle in the race with several other runners likely to be well positioned just off the pace in this. San Benedeto and Born Survivor are likely to be the worst positioned runners in this race based on the historical pace data.
Instant Expert
Looking at the win data in these conditions, the eyes are instantly drawn to Hollywoodien who seems to score pretty well across the board. The only blot on his Instant Expert CV being a defeat on his sole visit here. He was 3rd of 7 on that occasion and not ideally placed so he certainly acts well enough round here.
Ibleo was 2nd in this class last time out and has won a 7 runner race before so there shouldn’t be many concerns regarding his ability in this class or in this field size.
Fellow market fancy Moonlighter seems to have a few questions to answer here according to Instant Expert. The ground shouldn’t be an issue though, he’s won on both heavy and good ground over either code so is clearly versatile. He was also 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup so class shouldn’t be an issue either. Like Ibleo, Moonlighter has also won a 7 runner race so this 8 runner field isn’t going to be a disadvantage.
Born Survivor seems to be a negative, not only from a pace perspective, but also going off Instant Expert data (albeit a limited amount of data).
Course form is always a plus, especially at a right handed course like Sandown, and Darebin is the only runner who can boast a course chase win. In total he’s run ten times here over fences and he has a 30% strike rate. Seven of his runs here have resulted in a top 3 finish so it's clearly a course he enjoys.
Trainers Stats
Using the Query Tool in Geegeez Gold we can examine both the record of each of these trainers in January plus their records here at Sandown.
The above shows all of the trainers involved in this race and their records in January for the past 5 years. Nick Williams is a stand out record in terms of A/E, in fact he’s the only trainer with a figure over 1. This is another plus for Moonlighter, who looks as though he’ll be cherry ripe for this given the trainer’s record and he should be well placed according to our place data. Nick Gifford, trainer of Paddy’s Poem, has by far the worst A/E for his runners in January.
There isn’t enough meaningful data to look at their records here at Sandown during January but their overall records at Sandown should be insightful.
We’re seeing almost a reversal of the January trainer data here. Nick Gifford and Tom Symonds have very good records here at Sandown whereas Nick Williams, who traditionally does well in January, does not do well here at Sandown and has the worst A/E here of any of these trainers.
Form View
A lot of the races that these horses have been running in haven’t been working out very well so it’s relatively difficult to compare the strength of each runner’s recent form. Two runners have run in races that have worked out pretty well but they are the two runners who are making their seasonal debuts, Hollywoodien and Paddy’s Poem. Hollywoodien’s last run came in March at Haydock when he beat two subsequent winners. Paddy’s Poem’s last race was just over a year ago over this course and distance. He was 2nd on that occasion in a race where the 1st, 4th and 5th all won on one of their next two starts.
We can check the trainer record for both horses after breaks of 60+ days. That won’t necessarily tell us what can be expected after a year off but it could give an indication. Tom Symonds, trainer of Hollywoodien, has a 11.3% strike rate with all runners and an 11.54% win ratio with runners returning after a 60+ day absence. That’s good news for backers of Hollywoodien who are worried about the time off the track.
Nick Gifford, trainer of Paddy’s Poem, has a win record of 9.13% across all runners which becomes 8.47% when looking at those returning from a break. Slightly less but not a big worry.
Ibleo has been a beaten favourite on his last three runs so whilst he is still clearly in form and running pretty well, he doesn’t look one to take a short price about here. That’s especially the case with the possibility he might not be ideally placed too. Moonlighter should be much better placed but he fell last time out and he too has been finding one too good when completing so I’d be reluctant to back this one at restrictive odds too.
Gary Moore has two runners here, Early Du Lemo and Darebin. The pair met here less than a month ago with the latter, who is less well fancied of the pair in the market here, coming out on top by a neck. Early Du Lemo is 3lbs better off now so has a chance of reversing that form but he did suffer a heavy fall a couple of weeks ago at Ascot.
Hollywoodien remains with potential but is 6lb higher than his last run returning from an absence. If fit and well he should run well but there is some guesswork involved in that. Similar guesswork applies to Paddy’s Poem who has strong course and distance form. The chance he could be pestered on the front end is enough to put me off slightly on his return to racing but he’s a more than fair price.
San Benedeto drops back in trip, presumably in an effort from his trainer to get the horse to finish off his races better. His older form over this trip is strong but he often shaped like further would suit and he might find this a sharp enough test. That leaves Born Survivor who is likely to be poorly placed at the back of the field and he’s run poorly in all three races this season anyway.
Verdict
The market leaders may well win this but they don’t appear to offer much value in this contest and are worth taking on with an each way play. Early Du Lemo and Darebin are very closely matched on previous form but Darebin is a very consistent runner here at Sandown and certainly should not be twice the price of his stable mate. He has an excellent chance of hitting the frame once again at the very least and seems to offer the best value in this race.
Hollywoodien and Paddy’s Poem especially are very much respected but they do have to prove their well being so both are overlooked. Paddy’s Poem also has his trainer's poor record in January to overcome but if this isn't the day for him he would be interesting back here at Sandown at some point this season.
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Saturday’s big handicap is the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase and as you’d expect, we have an absolute cracker in store. As usual this preview will look at a number of angles and data that are easily found with a Geegeez Gold subscription.
Pace
The ground at Cheltenham is somewhere between soft and good to soft so we’ll have a look at the previous data on this going for 16+ runner handicaps since 2009 at 2m4f:
A pretty strong edge for those that race nearer the pace here. The Win PL, EW PL and Place % all gradually fall the further back in the field a runner is placed.
Hold up horses have a remarkably poor record. This run style has produced a WIN PL of -131.00 and a WIN % of just 0.7%. Even the place strike rate of 13.38% is very low – around three times lower than that of the front runners.
There is plenty of hope for those that race in mid division though. With only a handful more runners they are producing twelve times the winners of a hold up style and a respectable WIN % of 8.11%. The majority of winners and placed horses race in mid division despite these runners certainly not being seen to best effect like the front runners are.
The pace map for this race will give us a further idea of which runners could be advantaged, or disadvantaged, by the run of the race here.
This race should be run at a good gallop with possible contested speed here. Leading contender Master Tommytucker seems most likely to lead based on recent runs but you couldn’t rule out Windsor Avenue, Good Boy Bobby or Southfield Stone being the early leader.
There are a decent number of hold up horses here and although possibly only ruling out relatively unfancied runners, those below Ibis Du Rheu in the above pace map may end up struggling to get into this.
Previous Winners
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is often a good trial for this contest, the last four winners all took that race in a month prior to winning this although none were victorious in their trial.
The last two winners of this race, Warthog and Frodon, finished 3rd and 2nd going into this race. This year Coole Cody will be looking to complete the double whilst Al Dancer (3rd in the race this year) possibly has the ideal profile in terms of having placed in that race as a prep for this. Saint Sonnet is the only other runner to come from that race and he was a final fence faller when fading from contention.
Coole Cody does look best of those reopposing here but completing this double is difficult so perhaps this race won’t hold the key this year.
Interestingly, according to Andy Newton’s trends for this race, the last 18 winners have all been aged 8 or younger. That would appear to rule out Coole Cody and another fancied runner, Master Tommytucker.
Other Angles
The two market leaders here, Master Tommytucker and Al Dancer, have already met this season at Newton Abbot in similar conditions. Al Dancer gave Master Tommytucker 6lbs and a 2.75 length beating on that occasion and now gets 3lbs from that rival so Al Dancer would appear to have the edge at the weights.
Cepage is one of just a few here to have not had a prep run this season but Cepage’s trainer, Venetia Williams, has an IV of 2.60 and a WIN PL of 21.54 with handicap runners who have not run for 60+ days. His absence should not be seen as a negative.
We all know how important previous course form can be here, 13 of the last 18 winners of this had previously raced here and 5 had won here before. Al Dancer and Coole Cody have a good record here, Al Dancer has finished 1st, 2nd, 5th and 3rd in four runs over fences here and also has a course hurdle win to his name whilst Coole Cody has finished 2nd and 1st from his two runs here on the chase course and he too has a course hurdle win.
Brian Ellison, trainer of Windsor Avenue, has a strong record in handicaps at this sort of distance range. He has a 23.26% strike rate from 43 runners which have provided a WIN PL of 15.47 and an IV of 2.34. Another trainer who does well in handicaps at this distance range is Andrew J Martin (Militarian). His three winners have produced a whopping 103.15 WIN PL and an IV of 1.59.
A jockey stat worth noting is the record of Bryony Frost at Cheltenham. She has a better than 20% strike rate at this venue which improves to 30.77 when only including rides for Paul Nicholls and 47.06% when examining just her rides here on his chasers. She rides Southfield Stone for Nicholls here.
Verdict
This is a really wide open contest and a case can be made for many. Personally I want to be on something that is going to be well placed here and I’m mainly looking at Windsor Avenue and Southfield Stone.
Windsor Avenue’s last time out 2nd to Imperial Aura received a nice form boost when that winner came out and won nicely at Grade 2 level next time out. He’s only been out of the first two once when completing and on that occasion he was 4th, beaten less than a length. His handicap mark could be a lenient one and he’s got the stamina to get up the hill in this ground.
Southfield Stone is another consistent performer who has finished 1st and 2nd here on his last two starts. He was a length and a half in front of Coole Cody here off level weights in October and is only 2lbs worse off here but the big problem seems to be the ground as he clearly enjoys good ground. Clear preference between the pair is therefore with Windsor Avenue.
It’s also worth mentioning that Cepage was 4th in this last year and 2nd to Frodon in this two years ago. He runs off the same mark as last year and is 12lbs higher than in 2018. He probably didn’t quite stay in the Ultima in March and he’d rate a decent enough place only bet but he could be vulnerable yet again for win purposes.
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The Becher Chase is one of my favourite jumps races of the season and we look set for a cracker at Aintree on Saturday.
This article will run through some trends for this race, relevant form for each runner and of course many of the angles that are highlighted with a Geegeez Gold subscription.
Pace
Pace is an important factor in any race so let’s take a look at any potential pace bias in this race which could help narrow down the field:
Despite the long distance there is a clear indication that being near the pace is an advantage here at Aintree. It’s worth noting that not all of these races took place on the National course but many of them did and we see some very strong data.
The Win %, Win PL, Place % and IV all drop the further back in the field you are. The Place PL also follows a similar trend except 'Prominent' is slightly more profitable than 'Led' for that metric.
Now it’s worth noting that almost half the winners above have been either held up or have raced in mid division so we can’t simply put a line through those that are likely to be more patiently ridden but they’ve provided far more runners in the above data set and are clearly disadvantaged. Therefore we need to mark up those likely to be closer to the pace and mark down those who are likely to be held up.
The fact that almost half of front runners reach the frame suggests it’s not a bad strategy to simply back whichever front runner appears to have the best chance in this race.
Further credence is given to that strategy when you look at the data for this distance exclusively on soft ground.
The metrics for front runners fly up and the IV is huge 6.54. Front runners have a 37.5% win ratio and 62.5% place ratio. The sample is even smaller here so perhaps this data shouldn’t be taken completely at face value but soft ground certainly seems to benefit front runners even more than good ground does.
So which horses are likely to benefit from the pace bias, and which aren’t?
It looks likely that the pace will come from Yala Enki with Coo Star Sivola most likely to lead if Yala Enki doesn’t.
The immediate take away from this pace map, other than the fact that it’s likely to be front runner favouring lone speed, is that two of the leading contenders according to the market, Walk In The Mill and Le Breuil could be near the rear of the field.
Previous Experience Of The Fences
When it comes to the Grand National, some prefer the solid choice of previous experience over these fences and others prefer something that is unexposed over the famous obstacles.
When it comes to the Becher Chase it has certainly paid to follow Grand National fence form. A massive nine of the last ten winners had previously run on the Grand National course and twenty-three of the last thirty horses to finish in the first three had the same experience.
Now it’s worth remembering that in an ordinary year some of these that haven’t yet run here would have done so in April had we not lost the 2020 Grand National meeting to Covid so if there is a year this trend will be bucked it will probably be this year but this remains a noteworthy stat.
The runners in this year’s Becher Chase who have Grand National course experience are:
Kimberlite Candy
Le Breuil
Walk In The Mill
Ramses De Teilee
Minellacelebration
Vieux Lion Rouge
Joe Farrell
The runners without a run over these fences are:
Yala Enki
Calett Mad
Coo Star Sivola
Give Me A Copper
Smooth Stepper
Aso
Jett
Calipso Collonges
Race Fitness
Only four of these come here without a previous run this season. Is that a big deal?
Well three of the last ten winners have come here fresh and defied an absence which is a strong record given the majority of the field have usually had a prep. A lack of previous run this season certainly shouldn’t be seen as a big negative.
Once again Covid could have a slight effect here. Those who won here fresh had previously run in April but the fresh runners this year have not run since January at least which could have an impact.
Instant Expert
Instant Expert is an excellent tool for getting a quick insight into horse, trainer, jockey or sire performance across a number of relevant metrics. This is how the runners shape up from a place perspective here:
Calipso Collonges is particularly consistent on this ground but surprisingly Le Breuil, and a few other fancied runners, have a patchy record on soft ground.
The importance of course form has already been discussed and Walk In The Mill, Kimberlite Candy and Minellacelebration all do well here but it’s worth noting that Minellacelebration’s good runs at Aintree were on the Mildmay course and he ran poorly over this course in this race last season.
Le Breuil’s poor performance here across the board really stands out. He was beaten 20 lengths in this last season and is only 4lbs lower this time around. It’s difficult to make a case for him and he looks remarkably short with so many question marks.
Vieux Lion Rouge ticked a box having previously run at this course but also seems to have plenty of negatives against him, including a poor run in this last year.
From the place perspective Kimberlite Candy (from limited data), Walk In The Mill, Minellacelebration are all solid.
Narrowing it down with the win data:
It’s a lot harder to find positives when looking solely at win data but Walk In The Mill and Minellacelebration are once again relatively strong and it’s also worth noting that Give Me Copper is amongst the better scorers, albeit with limited data.
Further Analysis
We have to start with last year’s 1st and 2nd, Walk In The Mill and Kimberlite Candy.
Walk In The Mill, despite often being ridden patiently, has won this from mid division and from a prominent position in the past two years. He’s now 12lbs higher than when taking this two years ago and 8lbs higher than twelve months ago. He was also 4th in the 2019 Grand National so is clearly well at home here.
He was beaten 22 lengths and pulled up on his two prep runs for this race in the past so his recent run has once again followed suit and he’ll undoubtedly be primed for this. He wears cheekpieces for just the second time in his career, the first was in this last year when racing more prominently than he often does. The cheekpieces once again should give him a bit more extra early spark.
He beat Kimberlite Candy by 2.5 lengths last year giving Kimberlite Candy 4lbs. Kimberlite Candy has since won at Warwick by 10 lengths meaning he’ll now be 8lbs worse off with Walk In The Mill this time around.
Kimberlite Candy is the more lightly raced of the pair and should still have further improvement but with both at similar prices it’s difficult not to side with Walk In The Mill. Kimberlite Candy’s record first time out in the past four years is 1512 so his absence shouldn’t be much of a concern and he’s only raced twice in cheekpieces, finishing first and second in big races.
Ramses De Teillee has won three of his past five races and has finished runner up in a couple of big field chases. He should be well placed in this race and is proven in conditions and over staying trips. He was pulled up on his only try over these fences but he went okay for a long time and was eventually pulled up because the jockey’s reins had snapped. He certainly can't be ruled out.
He’s closely matched with Yala Enke, who he beat a short head last time out. Yala Enke is a pound better off and is another who should be well placed in this. He has no form over the National fences which is a slight put off and he appears to be a very dour stayer who could be one more for the Grand National itself if proving himself over the fences here.
Coo Star Sivola is yet another who should be suited by the run of the race but he also has never run over these fences before. He hasn’t run particularly well on his last three runs either so looks short enough.
Calett Mad stays very well and goes on any ground but has to defy an almost two year absence here. This may well be a sighter for the big one in April.
Give Me Copper was noted as performing well in Instant Expert and he comes here off the back of a wind op. He’s not the most consistent but he’s another who won’t be too far off the pace and he’s not completely handicapped out of this. If you fancy this one he may be more of a win only bet than each way despite the price.
Minellacelebration was the other very interesting runner from the view of Instant Expert. He won a handicap on the Mildmay course by 14 lengths back in October and has been raised 12lbs off the back of that. He seems to have improved from a wind op twelve months ago, possibly needing his next run but following that up with a second place and two wins. He did run poorly in this last year but that was just before his wind op and he’s otherwise won three from four at this venue and finished runner up in his other race. He did at least complete last year over these fences so if you can put that performance down to his wind he'd have a very good chance, for all he has to prove himself off this kind of mark.
The other runner worth a mention is Vieux Lion Rouge. He did score poorly in Instant Expert and ran poorly in this last year but he was second to Walk In The Mill two years ago and is now 18lbs better off. He hasn’t been at his best on his recent runs and was well beaten by Minellacelebration last time out so it’s entirely possible age is catching up with him now.
Verdict
Very unoriginal but the two most interesting runners here are two of the favourites, Walk In The Mill and Kimberlite Candy. The swing in the weights leaves two time winner Walk In The Mill the better handicapped of the pair.
Le Breuil seems much easier to take on and the best of the each way brigade seems to be the interesting Minellacelebration who does still have to prove himself over these fences and off this mark but he seems most likely to gatecrash the party if anything does.
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The most interesting race of the day (and most difficult) is potentially the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury on Saturday, which will be run at 3pm.
With the weather forecast set fair this looks likely to be run on good ground which could potentially catch a few of these out.
The Shape Of The Race
Looking at the pace analyser over staying trips at Newbury on good or good to soft ground we can see that those that aren’t too far from the pace are likely to be advantaged.
We have a fairly small data set here so this information should be taken with a slight pinch of salt. However most of the data points to a pace advantage. It’s not necessarily easy to make all here but front runners do have an IV slightly above 1 and a decent enough place strike rate of 21.05%.
Prominent racers have performed clear best in this sample. They have an outstanding IV of 2.19 and have been profitable to follow blindly producing a WIN PL of 7.25 and an EW PL of 19.56.
Those that race in mid division have performed well and also produced a profitable EW PL of 17.50 when followed blindly. However they have been very unprofitable to follow for win purposes.
What really stands out here is no held up winners from 66 runners. This run style has the largest number of runners and the least amount of success. Even the place strike rate is less than half as strong as that of prominent racers and only slightly better than half as good compared to mid division. It’s very likely that an extreme hold up ride will be a massive negative in this contest.
Looking at the pace map for this race, there looks to be no shortage of pace which will likely compromise the chances of anything that wants to lead exclusively.
It looks highly likely that Two For Gold is going to be the one that leads this field. He’s going to have to go off pretty fast to do so and he’ll be racing over two furlongs further than he’s ever gone before. He’s also jumped and hung right in the past so there are enough question marks here against him. There are a number of runners that look set to try to race prominently here and they include several of the market fancies.
Those nearer the head of the betting who could be more inconvenienced by their race position include the likes of Kildisart, The Conditional and Cloth Cap.
The Angles
Instant Expert
Instant Expert is a great way to gain a huge amount of insight into the field in a short space of time.
We can see from the above place data that several of the market leaders are yet to run here at Newbury. There are also some distance and field size question marks over a few of these, particularly for Two For Gold and Secret Investor who are yet to race over this distance and have never encountered this big a field before.
Black Op is yet place in two outings in 16+ runner fields whilst Copper Head has only manged to place in one run from four in class 1 races which is a worry. Mister Malarkey’s poor record in big fields is another stat that stands out here.
With most of the market leaders generally scoring well enough with their place data we might gain a bit more insight by looking just at the win data.
We’re seeing a few more question marks here now for win purposes. Vinndication remains a solid choice whilst Kildisart and Aye Right look vulnerable in this class. Black Op looked relatively reliable from the place data but now looks a poor choice considering the win data.
Copperhead doesn’t have the best place record in class 1 races but he has previously won a class 1 race and he has a pretty solid record in most of the criteria here.
One at a bigger price who is beginning to look interesting is La Bague Au Roi. She has the joint second best win ratio on this kind of ground, the clear second best win record in this class (only behind the early favourite) and she has won all three starts here at Newbury.
Related Form
One race that could hold the key here is the Ultima Handicap Chase from this year’s Cheltenham Festival. The winner (The Conditional), the third (Vinndication) and the fourth (Kildisart) all reoppose here and are all near the head of the market.
The Conditional stayed on really well up the hill, especially considering he made a mistake two from home. He’s generally been seen to best effect on softer ground although he was runner up in this last year, albeit off a 9lb lower mark. He has previously been withdrawn because of good ground and is conceding race fitness to many of these so could be vulnerable in this.
Vinndication was just over 2.5 lengths behind Kildisart at Cheltenham and is now 3lbs better off. Kildisart had a lovely pipe opener last month over hurdles and will enjoy this ground. He also had the cheekpieces back on that he wore at Cheltenham.
He is arguably a more solid choice than Vinndication who sports first time cheekpieces here. Vinndication’s sire, Vinnie Roe, has a 11.93% strike rate in national hunt races with his offspring and that only drops to 11.76% when running in this combination of cheekpieces and a tongue tie so there is a very good chance he is no worse for it at least.
Vinndication should be better placed in this race though which makes deciding between the pair difficult.
Hot Form
Secret Investor’s winning seasonal debut is working out well.
The third has won since and the runner up (Potterman, who reopposes here) was only a short head away from victory on his next start. Secret Investor won that race comfortably and is only up 6lbs here (due to go up another 3lbs) which underestimates the strength of that form. Potterman runs off the same mark again and is due to go up 5lbs following this race.
Black Op was a 4.75 lengths 4th to Imperial Aura last time out and that runner has since won a Grade 2. He was also less than 2 lengths behind Champ here last season. Aye Right was runner up on his first start of the season in a Kelso handicap and the winner of that race, Nuts Well, has won again since.
Other Angles
Amongst the most in form trainers here are Kim Bailey (Vinndication and Two For Gold) who has a 25.42% win strike rate and 50.85% place strike rate in the past 30 days from 52 runners, Paul Nicholls (Secret Investor and Danny Whizzbang) who has a 28% win strike rate and 52% place strike rate in the same period from 125 runners and Anthony Honeyball (Regal Encore) who has a 27.78% win strike rate and 41.67% place strike rate in the past 30 days from 36 runners.
Regal Encore also has some other trainer stats in his favour. Anthony Honeyball has a 2.07 IV here at Newbury over the past 5 years and an IV of 1.98 in handicaps.
There is concerning trainer form from Warren Greatrex (La Bague Au Roi) who has had no wins and just three places from 32 runners in the past 30 days.
Aye Right is interesting from a sire snippet perspective. His sire has a strong record in marathon races (21.35% win strike rate, 15.18 WIN PL). The same goes for Copperhead and Potterman whose sire has a 27.59% win strike rate and 15.0 WIN PL over this distance range.
The Conditional’s trainer, David Bridgewater, does well in both handicaps in general and handicaps in this distance range with an IV of 1.68 for both. Danny Whizzbang goes here for Paul Nicholls and Sean Bowen who have a 27.27% win strike rate here as a combination over the past 5 years.
The Verdict
The hot form and related form of Secret Investor (10/1) and Potterman (18/1) make the pair extremely interesting. Secret Investor does have to prove himself in very big fields but he has finished 1st and 2nd in 13 and 14 runner fields in the past so it really shouldn’t be an issue. His trainer is in excellent form and he’s likely to be very well placed, just off the lead. He did jump right last time though which is a slight concern but he’ll love the ground.
Potterman might not be so well placed, although if not prominent he shouldn’t be too far off the pace. He’s extremely consistent and seems well suited by marathon races on good ground, in line with his sire stats. He’s a bigger price than Secret Investor and is a bit more proven from a stamina perspective so is preferred and fancied to reverse form with Secret Investor this time around.
Vinndication and Kildisart should run well and La Bague Au Roi may have been interesting but her trainer’s form is a concern.
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Last week I examined two one mile handicaps at Lingfield with some success (7/2 winner and 9/1 placed). Having highlighted a strong pace bias at the course in that article, it was no surprise that the winners of both races were ridden prominently. And we might just see something similar again in the 11.35 at Lingfield on Saturday, another one mile handicap.
Pace
I looked at two contrasting field sizes last week to compare the differences in pace bias. This week we have a ten runner handicap so let’s see what the data tell us:
Once again we are seeing a strong pace bias towards those that lead in this sort of field size. Backing front runners blind has been hugely profitable and leaders have an IV of 1.32.
As you go back in the field the Win%, Place% and IV figures all gradually decrease. The closer you are to the pace here, the more advantage you have.
Draw
We can use the great tools on Geegeez to get insights here, too. This time it’s the turn of the Draw Analyser:
Looking at any metric that relates to winners here would suggest middle draws are advantaged and low draws are disadvantaged. The Place% figures slightly back that up although they are much closer together than the Win% figures; and PRB suggests that there is very little in the draw over this distance between all stall positions.
Looking at every single stall in the data range used see a variance of just 0.03 between the single ‘best’ stall and the single ‘worst’ stall so realistically there is no obvious draw bias at all.
A look at the pace and draw combination might shed some light on some micro situations where there could be a draw bias.
Pace and Draw Combination
I mention this a lot but I’m a really big fan of the pace and draw heat map that’s available on both the Draw Analyser page and also the Draw tab on the racecards. Just because there isn’t an overall draw bias it doesn’t mean that certain run styles aren’t advantaged or disadvantaged based on their stall position.
By displaying the PRB data in the heat map we are making use of as much data as possible from every qualifying race.
The standout takeaway from this is that the biggest advantage is with high drawn front runners. Two furlongs are run over this course and distance before the runners head into the bend so there is no obvious reason why higher drawn front runners do better than lower drawn front runners but it appears they do enjoy an advantage.
There aren’t many massively disadvantaged positions based on the draw but it does seem those that are drawn high and further back in the field have a slight disadvantage from their positions on average.
The Runners
We’ve established the pace advantage so the pace map for this race will tell us if any of the runners are likely to get the run of the race or if the pace advantage could be nullified by a contested speed.
This race certainly should not be run at a crawl with Lalania, Ruby Gates and At Ease all comfortable going forward.
Starting with At Ease, who is the early favourite, Charles Hills has good course form with six wins from seventeen runners in the past five years. His handicap debutants are also profitable here in that period, producing a 23.81% win record and an IV of 2.1.
Looking at the horse itself, form is limited after just two starts. She was entitled to need the run first time out and ran respectably in the circumstances and she followed that up with a novice win over a mile at Chelmsford. Gaining a handicap mark based on a front running victory around Chelmsford can be a dangerous game given runners of that nature will generally be seen to best effect there but there should be a similar advantage here at least.
The bare form of her win was decent enough. She beat 84 rated Mars Landing (probably not flattered by that rating but is hard to win with) by 0.75 lengths in receipt of 5lbs. The pair were 7 lengths clear of the third. She could easily have been handed a rating around 80 which would have been quite interesting given she has clear room for improvement and it seems the handicapper has let her in lightly off a mark of 74 here. She’s a high drawn front runner and appears to have every chance.
I’m Available is challenging her at the head of the market at the time of writing and she comes here off the back of a staying on third at Wolverhampton on her latest start. She has previously won at a mile but all her best form over the past year has been at 7f. She’s likely to be held up and the form of her Kempton win two starts ago was certainly nothing special (the second, fourth and fifth were all well enough beaten next time out) and she’s much easier to oppose here than At Ease.
Others who look opposable also include Kwela who despite a decent return from wind surgery last time is now back on a career high mark and has been beaten in three runs off lower marks here. One Small Step was behind Kwela last time with little optimism for reversing that form here.
The importance of strong Lingfield course form was discussed in last week’s preview as it can be a slightly quirky track that brings out the very best in some runners. Course form is certainly no worry for the likes of Stay Classy and Lalania, both of whom have been tried at listed level this season.
Stay Classy’s form is fairly hit and miss but she’s two from three at this venue, her only defeat coming in a class 2 handicap. Her wins came off marks of 82 and 83, both with the 7lb claim of Angus Villiers who was very good value for that claim, and in her defeat she was beaten 3.25 off 89 without a claimer so without a claimer again here she is probably still a little high in the weights. There is also a fair chance she is slightly better at 7f too.
Lalania has been a revelation this season, winning four races in 2020 rising a total of 19lbs in the handicap. The big question is whether or not the handicapper has got her yet. She was runner up off a 9lb lower mark on her last handicap run at this distance but the 1st, 4th and 5th have all won since so that was clearly a smart effort. She also won on her next start to frank that form further. That win came at 7f and the 4th and 5th won next time out with the 3rd and 6th placing since so she has a strong catalogue of form and she’s only 4lbs higher than that effort.
She’s a speedy sort for a mile which is great around here and she’ll be on the pace from her low draw. She has proven this course suits well with a 4 length victory on her last run at this venue. That win came at 6f and she had previously run well here over just 5f, finishing a fast finishing 2nd.
The downside of Lalania is she is likely to be taken on for the lead (she doesn’t have to lead though and should be happy enough to track the leader) and she no longer has the services of Hollie Doyle who has struck up a nice partnership with the horse, riding her on her last four victories.
Ruby Gates is the other pace angle who has not yet been mentioned. She made all last time out in a five runner, class 5 handicap. She’s up 3lbs for that and has never won above that recent winning mark, nor has she won in seven runs in class 4 company.
The only runners yet to be mentioned are Lady Eleanor, Sunset Kiss and Delicate Kiss.
The former is lightly raced and is yet to get within 4.75 lengths of the winner in four handicap starts. Those runs all came at 7f and she’s shaped a few times as though worth a go at a mile but she doesn’t look well enough handicapped to win this and is high enough drawn for a hold up performer.
Sunset Kiss is also lightly raced and went from winning a Wolverhampton maiden by 2 lengths to being beaten 41 lengths on handicap debut. She had previously shown a decent level of form on turf so a first encounter with heavy ground looks to blame for that effort. She shouldn’t be badly handicapped and is overpriced but has plenty of questions to answer obviously.
Delicate Kiss was behind Kwela and One Small Step at Kempton last time out but is only 1lb higher than when 2nd at Chelmsford on her previous start. The winner hasn’t done much for that form in two runs since and the handicapper probably has her now.
Final Verdict
So the two I’m most interested in here are the well fancied At Ease and the progressive Lalania. They should both be well placed, assuming they don’t compromise each other’s chances by getting into a competition for the early lead.
At Ease has the front runner/high draw angle, the trainer/course record is profitable and she looks to have been let into handicaps lightly but she’s yet to run here.
Lalania should be well placed and has very few questions to answer. She was admittedly beaten 15 lengths last time but that was in Listed company in a big field. It’s possible she is a couple of pounds higher in the ratings now than ideal but she still has enough in her favour to run well at what could be pretty generous odds (a very early 10/1).
I’ll be backing Lalania each way and covering the pair in a reverse forecast. The options for third are plentiful but Sunset Kiss certainly shouldn't be written off.
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With the flat season officially over, I’ll now be largely concentrating on the all weather over the winter with the odd staying chase thrown in for good measure.
Lingfield has a good quality card with two listed races at the end of proceedings but it’s two handicaps earlier on that catch my eye as decent betting heats and I’ll be examining both here. Both races are run over a mile but with differing field sizes so we’ll be able to see how much difference the field size makes to any pace and draw biases and hopefully we’ll be able to come out of both races with a decent bet or two.
The races in question are the 12.10pm, a class 6 handicap featuring twelve runners and the 12.45pm, a class 2 handicap with just the eight runners.
Draw
Twelve Runners
The good thing about looking at all weather races is we have a huge amount of data on consistent going types so we can look at the exact field sizes rather than a range.
In slightly bigger fields of twelve runners there seems very little draw advantage with win and place percentages fairly similar and PRB almost exactly the same. Middle draws have performed worst of all for many metrics but they come out slightly on top in terms of PRB so it’s probably fair to say there is no draw advantage over this distance in this field size despite other distances here having some fairly strong draw advantages.
Eight Runners
Draw advantages are usually less prevalent in smaller fields so let’s see if the data backs that up here:
A quick glance at these figures might suggest a middle draw is a big disadvantage but they’ve made up a much smaller sample of runners as the middle draws in eight runner fields contain just two of the eight runners, those from stalls 4 and 5. They have the second best place percentage and although middle draws provide the worst PRB, it’s only 0.01 worse off than low draws and 0.02 less than that provided by the high draws.
So overall the mile distance here looks very fair as far as the draw is concerned.
Pace
Twelve Runners
The size of the field can impact pace bias either way. Bigger fields on average will contain more pace than smaller fields but with more runners those that are held up are likely to be further from the lead than in a smaller field, therefore giving those runners even more ground to make up. In big field races where there is little pace on offer those held up are likely to be seen to worst effect.
There is a clear advantage here to being up with the pace with number of wins, places, EW PL and IV all decreasing the further back in the field you are. There have been forty-eight winners that have been held up or ridden in mid division in the above sample and forty-six have been front runners or prominent so plenty of winners do come from behind but that’s from a lot more runners.
Eight Runners
Are smaller fields going to make it easier or harder for hold up performers to get their heads in front?
Once again the number of wins, places, EW PL and IV all decrease the further back in the field a runner is positioned. The majority of the metrics are even more in favour of those up with the pace here compared to bigger fields which suggests that these smaller fields are often only moderately run at best.
Draw and Pace Combination
It's not always the case that low is good and high is bad (or vice versa) or front running is good and being held up is bad (or vice versa). Certain run styles are suited to different types of draw and this is where the draw pace heat maps on Geegeez Gold are absolutely essential for research.
Twelve Runners
We already know that racing nearer the pace is an advantage here but what this heat map is telling us is that those that race in mid division from either low or middle draws are actually outperforming those that lead from a low draw or are prominent from a high draw.
The best draw and pace combination from a PRB perspective is to lead from a middle or high draw or to be prominent or mid division from a low or middle draw.
Eight Runners
In the smaller field there seems much less difference between the run styles depending on the draw. Leading or being prominent from any draw is certainly no bad thing. Going further back though, if looking to back a horse from mid division a low draw seems essential.
12.10pm Lingfield Analysis
Pace is likely to play it’s part here so the pace map for this race is important.
We should be guaranteed some early dash here from habitual front runner Rivas Rob Roy. He seems likely to get an easy lead here so is of immediate interest, especially having run some good races here in the past. What is clear from looking at his form is he generally improves for a run and he hasn’t run for almost four months plus he seems better at 7f than 1m so hopefully his role here is just to ensure a half decent gallop.
Four Mile Bridge, who ran very poorly after a year off last time out, and handicap debutant Mirakhul are likely to follow Rivas Rob Roy early on. Mirakhul has barely done enough to even earn that handicap mark of 55 so he’s going to have to find some sudden improvement from somewhere to figure even if he is likely to be favoured by how the race is run.
The majority of the other runners are likely to be held up in mid division or rear so to find the best bet we will need to find a runner that has proven they can come from off the pace at Lingfield. It takes a runner with a good turn of foot to make up ground here so let’s find one.
Violet’s Lads was better than the bare result last time out after a wide trip but she didn’t seem to stay a mile on her last attempt here and doesn’t have the best overall profile, even in this lowly grade.
Casavola is fairly interesting on the basis her handicap mark has been decided on efforts at Chelmsford, where she hasn’t been seen to best effect trying to come from off the pace. She was well beaten there in two starts but those were strong races compared to this contest. She’s respected here but it’s almost impossible to figure out what kind of mark she’s been running to so she can’t be backed with any real confidence, especially as she's never run here either.
The two really solid options here are Good Luck Charm and Emerald Fox, who are amongst the best for course records as denoted by the Instant Expert below (Violet's Lads also comes out well on that score but those runs are at 7f).
Good Luck Charm could still be well handicapped on his run at Bath in July when 6th. He was beaten just over six lengths that day but the winner won his next start, the second and fourth have won twice since and even the fifth and ninth have won since. He’s now 4lbs lower than that run and returns to Lingfield for the first time since following up that Bath effort with a close 2nd here off a 1lb higher mark in August. He ran as if in form last time out at Kempton at a course that doesn’t suit quite so well and it’s worth noting that 2.25 lengths in front of Good Luck Charm that day, and only 1lb worse off here, was Emerald Fox.
Emerald Fox is lightly raced for a 5yo and has been in consistent form since the resumption of racing in June. She’s been better than the bare result on her last couple of runs but is most interesting on her run here in a classified stakes over course and distance in mid August. She was 2nd that day, 1.75 lengths behind Laurentia giving that runner 5lbs. Laurentia is now rated 18lbs higher whereas Emerald Fox is just 1lb higher. That form isn’t completely reliant on the subsequent exploits of the winner either, the 3rd also won next time out.
Both Emerald Fox and Good Luck Charm are likely to be positioned in mid division from their low draws, which isn’t a disadvantage according to the draw pace heat map, but Emerald Fox should be slightly more forward than Good Luck Charm which is another tick in her box. She’s therefore favoured for the win here, although I’ll be tempted to include this pair in a forecast in the hope that Casavola isn’t well handicapped here.
If you’re a fan of trainer/jockey combinations then Good Luck Charm should offer a decent each way betting opportunity at around 6/1. Gary Moore and Rhys Clutterbuck have a 40% strike rate from ten runs here in the past year. Seven of those runners have placed producing a 33.88 EW PL.
12.45pm Analysis
First let’s check out the pace map for this race:
Once again we should be at least guaranteed some early pace in this race from Dashing Roger. He should get an uncontested lead so will be of immediate interest here, especially as he’s been extremely progressive in recent months rising from a handicap mark of 74 in July up to 96 here, winning three races along the way. His form over this distance this year reads 12121 and he won here in March, albeit off a much lower mark. He was arguably flattered to win as he did last time out on heavy ground so he does have to prove he can still mix it in better company off an 8lb higher mark.
Silent Attack and Astro King are likely to track the pace that Dashing Roger sets. Silent Attack seems equally effective over the 7f he ran well at last time out (in a class 2 handicap here) or over a mile, which is the distance he won his last race at, which just so happened to be here off this mark. He’s at his best seemingly in small fields, which he gets here and although he doesn’t have as interesting a profile as many of these he is at the very least sure to give his running.
Astro King is the early favourite thanks to a lightly raced profile for a powerful trainer with this type. Sir Michael Stoute’s runners are nearly always well found in the market here but that hasn’t stopped his handicap runners producing a level stakes profit on Lingfield's polytrack over the past five years, he also has a strike rate of 25%. Soft ground probably didn’t suit last time out and he seems at least reasonably handicapped on his previous form on artificial surfaces. This is a sharp enough track to be dropping back in trip by two furlongs though and whilst he’s potentially the most likely winner, his price is short enough.
Oh This Is Us is very interesting, more so than his price suggests. He finished near last on his latest start, behind Silent Attack, but was only beaten 2.5 lengths and he was slightly short of room and eased up with half a furlong to run. Crucially that run came over 7f and although he had just won over that trip at Chelmsford, round here he seems much better suited by a mile. He only got up late when winning the 2019 All-Weather Mile Championships and that left him rated 113, he’s currently rated just 104. Other than his 2nd racecourse appearance as a 2yo, he’s unbeaten in two course and distance starts, the other victory coming in February 2019 winning a handicap comfortably off 110.
Plantadream is also interesting on his all weather exploits. He was last seen finishing 5th in a decent York handicap on desperate ground suggesting he is still fairly treated. His all weather record reads 121 and on his latest start here he won a class 4 handicap off 81 by 7 lengths.
Irreverent was 2nd last time out in a class 4 handicap and although he has a chance, he appears ridiculously short at an early 7/2. It would be no surprise to see that price drift considerably, especially when you consider he's never even placed in five attempts at class 2 level as shown in the Instant Expert below. Young Fire has had a good season but is likely to be given a lot to do and he is probably badly handicapped now. He's another with a poor record in class 2 handicaps. Meanwhile Pistoletto might just be making up the numbers.
Dashing Roger has almost everything in his favour and is a fair price early on (5/1) considering that but this mark might be just a bit too stiff for him to win this. On the other hand Oh This Is Us is well handicapped and despite being a hold up horse, he seems ideally suited by this course and distance so the disadvantage that many have being held up here might actually be an advantage for him. Hopefully the dead eight stand their ground in which case Oh This Is Us should make a nice each way bet here at an early 7/1.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/LetsGoLucky_HKDragon.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-11-13 14:37:192020-11-15 10:51:24Lingfield Preview: The Best Bets For Two Mile Handicaps
After a break from the race previews last week to write about hot form it’s time to delve back into the competitive race previews – this time with the November Handicap.
This is a race I’ve always had a bit of a fondness for, partly due to some decent success around a decade ago but I’ve admittedly found it tougher in recent years, perhaps because the ground has been pretty desperate more often than not.
It's been a rare drying week in the lead up to this year’s renewal so hopefully the ground won’t be too testing and the 2020 flat turf season can finish without the need to race on farcical ground.
Draw
This is perhaps the most surprising element of the race. Despite going round the bend low draws have seemed strongly disadvantaged in testing conditions over this course and distance.
In the past eleven years there have been thirteen 12f handicaps run on ground ranging from good to soft down to heavy and the lowest third of the draw has not only failed to provide a winner, those stalls also offer less than half of the placed finishers compared to middle and high draws. The PRB is also significantly lower.
Comparing the middle and high draws, middle draws have been better from a win perspective but thirteen races isn’t the best sample size to show an advantage for winners. The place data is almost identical and the PRB data is identical so there seems nothing in it.
It could be that the higher drawn middle numbers have been padding out the middle draw data so let’s take a closer look at the individual stall data.
This draw data shows that not all middle stalls and high stalls are created equal as the overview data might have suggested. Three of the four best PRB figures have been recorded by the three highest stalls.
These stalls do have the least amount of data due to the fact that we are looking at the actual stall they effectively came out of rather than the stall they were allocated in the racecard. For every lower drawn non runner each runner will break from a stall one closer to the rail. However it does seem significant that all three of the highest stalls have performed so well in terms of PRB.
It's not all bleak for the lower numbers. Stalls 2, 8 and 9 are joint third best for place percentage so we certainly shouldn’t just expect those drawn in double figures to fill all the places.
There does seem an advantage with the wider draws though. Looking at the nine stalls with the best PRB figures, eight of them are stall 12 or higher. Seven of the eight worst PRB figures come from stall 10 or lower.
Pace
We saw at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago, admittedly on extremely testing ground, that it was difficult to come from off the pace over most distances. There were no twenty-three runner races on those cards though so there is every chance this race could work out differently. To get a stronger idea of any pace bias we’ll need to look at similar big field races.
Using the same going filters as we used for the draw data, we see that prominent racers have won more often than any other type of run style, although hold up horses have fared almost as well.
As far as the place data is concerned, and this is going to be more enlightening with a sample size of this nature, mid division comes out as the best run style in front of prominent and then hold up. It’s clearly difficult to dominate from the front in a field of this size and nature with front runners having the poorest record by some distance although the Each Way PL is most profitable for front runners despite just two places and no wins - a sign they are underestimated by the bookies.
Depending on which data you look at you could argue any kind of run style is most advantageous so it seems as though every runner should have a fair chance, although the safest option seems to be to back those likely to race in mid division.
How this race is run could have the biggest bearing on what early position is best so let’s take a look at the pace map.
It looks almost certain we’ll see contested speed in this race with Raymond Tusk, Dash Of Spice, Bollin Joan, Glencadam Glory, Hiroshima, Torcello, Beechwood Jude and Euchen Glen all more than comfortable leading. Euchen Glen is tactically versatile and has been running in smaller field, group races recently so perhaps a bit more restraint will be used here but that still leaves no less than seven possible pace angles!
This race could be a real test at the trip with those coming from nearer the rear likely to be seen to best effect. A bit of extra stamina over further probably wouldn’t be a bad thing either, especially with the ground likely to be quite tacky.
Draw and Pace Combination
We’ve already established that a high draw seems to be an advantage here but is there also a pace bias related to that draw?
The answer is no. Those drawn high seem to have an equal chance of running well whatever their run style. The data above does suggest that coming from mid division with a high draw is a disadvantage but given there seems to be little to no change between hold up and prominent it seems unlikely there is a much bigger disadvantage being placed between those positions. A quirk of a fairly small sample size perhaps.
If you are drawn low you are almost certainly going to be seen to best effect if avoiding either front running duties or a hold up style whilst those drawn in the middle have a fair chance however they are ridden but again, being either prominent or mid division is probably advantageous to those runners.
Age
A big thing is always made of the age of a horse when looking at big handicap trends but does it really make much difference, especially with only 3yos carrying a different weight for age (5lb advantage)?
In the past five renewals of this race there have been winners aged 3, 4, 5 and 7 so a fairly even spread. Arguably 4yos have faired best as they are the only age group to have a better place percentage (55%) compared to their representation in those fields (40%). The 3yos have also performed okay with a 10% place strike rate having made up 11% of the runners during that period. The older brigade, 6yos and 7yos were slightly further below par and 5yos performed least well with a 15% place strike rate compared to 25% representation.
It’s a small sample but it stands to reason that the younger, less exposed runners are likely to include the best handicapped runners.
The Odds
It's the end of the season and many of these runners have had a tough season so it would be easy to suggest this is a race that’s likely to have an upset. Plenty of big prices tend to reach the frame in this race but it’s worth noting that the last six winners of this race started at 10/1 or less.
The Runners
Sam Cooke
He looks to have been saved for this since his close 2nd at Ascot in late July but given he had previously missed 14 months of action it’s entirely possible that connections simply haven’t been able to get him to the track since then. The 4yo has had just six runs to date so there should be more improvement to come and he won his sole start on soft ground at this distance comfortably, albeit off a 10lb lower mark.
He may have been difficult to train but he’s never run a bad race when getting to the racecourse and a 3lbs rise for being beaten a nose last time out seems fair, for all that form hasn’t worked out well. Given he would have preferred softer ground on that occasion it’s probably fair to mark him up as the best horse in that race.
You couldn’t confidently say he’s well enough handicapped to win a race like this given he’s never really beaten much but conditions seem ideal, he’s lightly raced, his trainer is in excellent form and he is very favourably drawn in stall 20.
Euchen Glen
The 7yo has taken his form to a new level this season after missing two years of racing before a return this season. He’s taken his racing well this season having had nine starts in less than five months and he’s won three of his last four including the Old Borough Cup over two furlongs further and two Group 3s over this distance. All those wins came in very testing conditions.
His Old Borough Cup win came off a 8lb lower mark (form hasn’t really worked out) and on his latest win he beat a horse now rated 101 by 1.75 lengths giving that runner 3lbs so whilst his mark is fair, it’s hardly generous.
He was well beaten in this as a 4yo but he’s a different horse now. He’s entitled to go well if he is ridden a bit more patiently than he has been on recent starts and he is well drawn in 18 but he’s surely not the best handicapped runner in this field.
Kingbrook
One of six 3yos in the field and completely unexposed at this distance having had just one start over further than 10f. That run came last time out when winning the Old Rowley Cup, usually one of the hottest handicaps of the season, by half a length on soft ground.
There are early signs that race is working out okay and there is certainly plenty of strength going through his previous form. On his penultimate start he was a staying on 3rd over two furlongs shorter behind Ilaraab who won again next time out.
Trainer Ian Williams saddled the 3rd in the latest renewal of this race and the winner the year before. Kingbrook will once again be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who gave him an excellent ride last time out. He's up 6lbs for his latest win but there should still be more to come and it’s interesting that he’s not only well proven on soft ground but he also has form on plenty of different types of going. This can be an asset when going through tacky, holding ground. Very well drawn in 22.
On To Victory
Consistent on the flat this season, in the first three on all three starts. Placing has never been his issue, he’s been 2nd or 3rd on his last five completed starts, but he is winless since 2017.
His form is solid, if unspectacular, and he’s only 1lb higher than when 2nd at Ascot on his last start at this distance. He is arguably better over further, which might not be a bad thing if this race is run at a very strong gallop but the winless run is a concern.
Stall 13 is okay and there are no issues with the ground so he should run well but he doesn’t appeal strongly for win purposes.
Surrey Pride
A generally progressive 3yo who was well fancied last time out over shorter, failing to get home in very testing ground. He has previously finished almost 8 lengths behind Kingbrook at Newmarket and on that form he has work to do now just 7lbs better off.
He's the lowest drawn of those near the head of the market and not only does stall 6 look a likely disadvantage, he’s also going to be dropped out in the rear from that draw which is proven to be a bad tactic from a low draw. This could be tough for him for all he still may have wiggle room off his mark.
Dash Of Spice
Hasn’t been in the same form as 2018 this term having missed two years of racing before a reappearance in July of this year. After dropping 11lbs, 5lbs below his last winning mark, he put in his best performance of the season last time out when seen to best effect from the front over course and distance finishing 2nd to Tulip Fields who reopposes here.
Low drawn front runners tend to be disadvantaged in this and he’s going to face plenty of competition for the lead. The 4lb pull with Tulip Fields seems unlikely to be enough to reverse the form and it’s a surprise he’s the shorter price of the pair with many bookies.
Eagle Court
David O’Meara’s 3yo has seemingly improved for the step up in trip to 10f on his last two starts, winning both. Those two wins have come in soft ground, they’ve worked out pretty well (beat subsequent winners in both) and he’s won both more cosily than the winning distance suggests.
The 8lbs he’s gone up for winning those two contests is probably less of a concern than the step up in trip, especially as he was racing over a mile just three runs ago.
The excellent Profiler tool on Geegeez Gold shows that Free Eagle’s sire’s offspring perform much better in handicaps over 10f compared to 12f. In fact Eagle Court would be a first handicap winner over this trip for Free Eagle should he emerge victorious here. He’s well drawn in 21 but is going to have his stamina severely tested here and he’s probably one for the tracker for his next run back at 10f.
Strawberry Rock
A difficult runner to figure out with just four career starts. He was impressive at Ripon on his penultimate start when beating Bollin Joan (reopposes here) by 4 lengths on good to soft ground. Bollin Joan did go on to win two starts later so it clearly wasn’t a bad contest.
He wasn’t as good off an 8lb higher mark next time out in a class 2 handicap over a couple of extra furlongs at York on softer ground when 5th, beaten over 8 lengths. He was beaten before stamina came into play that day and it’s difficult to tell if the new mark caught him out or if he was just below par.
His draw in 11 is probably just about okay but the percentage call has to be to oppose him. Market support may be significant though.
Torcello
A 6yo with a decent strike rate on the flat of six wins from sixteen runs. He handles very testing ground well but he’s on a career high mark and faces plenty of competition for front running duties. All his wins have been in much smaller fields and it would be a surprise if he was good enough to even place in this.
Tulip Fields
Won well here a couple of starts back and wasn’t badly hit by the handicapper, only going up 4lbs for winning by 2 lengths. There is a suspicion that race rather fell apart though with several runners not performing on the very testing ground.
She wasn’t disgraced next time out in listed company at Lingfield, perhaps not quite getting home over an extra furlong, but didn’t do a lot to suggest she’d up to winning a race this competitive. She won’t be far off the pace, for all she’s unlikely to lead, and a place would be a decent effort.
Rhythmic Intent
The only one at a bigger price to catch my eye. It wouldn’t be a crazy assumption to think he hasn’t quite got home on very testing ground on his last two runs at 14f. If you were able to ignore those runs he suddenly becomes very interesting. His last run at this distance was a 4th in a six runner race, which on the face of it doesn’t seem great but he was only beaten 2.75 lengths and the 2nd and 3rd both came out and won easily next time.
He’s only 4lbs higher than when winning by 3 lengths earlier this season and he’s generally been consistent when faced with middle distances and softer ground. In fact his form figures at 10f or 12f on soft ground read 21314.
His draw in stall 10 isn’t perfect but 25/1 with as many as 7 places on offer for each way purposes underestimates his chances here. He was after all sent off near favourite for the Old Borough Handicap a few runs ago.
Verdict
Rythmic Intent is pretty interesting but ideally he’d have been drawn higher and he does have to bounce back from a poor run last time, even if there were excuses. Eagle Court is a big threat from a great draw if he stays but there is evidence to suggest this trip will stretch him. Meanwhile Euchen Glen appears a solid choice and he’s perhaps still improving at the age of 7 but for win purposes he’s passed over. On To Victory is a horse that will interest plenty of each way punters but he appeals more as a place only bet than anything else.
The two most interesting runners should be Sam Cooke and Kingbrook who are unfortunately both well found in the betting. Sam Cooke has a lovely profile for this but he still seemingly hasn’t done it against well handicapped rivals. That’s not his fault, he just seemingly hasn’t bumped into them yet, but for a horse trading at around 6/1 you’d probably want to be a bit more sure about his handicap mark.
Kingbrook isn’t yet proven off a mark in the mid nineties but the manner of his victory last time in what is usually a very hot race suggests he could yet rate higher. He seemed to relish the step up in trip and the handicapper hasn’t had a proper chance to catch up with him over this distance. Everything else appears to be in his favour and with just three runs under his belt this season he comes here a very fresh horse. With one bookies going 7/1 and 7 places on each way bets that appears a very good bet for all the likely very tacky ground is a potential fly in the ointment.
As it's the final big handicap of the flat season I'll throw a speculative tricast out there:
1. Kingbrook
2. Sam Cooke
3. On To Victory
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Saunter_Novemberhandicap.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-11-06 12:25:052020-11-07 11:05:47November Handicap 2020 Preview: Kingbrook Could Take Advantage Of Early Burn Up
It's the Breeders' Cup this weekend, and in this preview video I've nailed my colours to the mast across all 14 races.
Hit play and listen in - good luck!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/bcpreview.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2020-11-05 21:56:262020-11-05 22:03:29Breeders’ Cup 2020: Video Preview, Picks
This year's Compendium is free to everyone, and contains:
- Race trends for all 14 races
- Pace projections for all 14 races
- 'How the runners fit' form profiles for all 14 races
- Trends contenders for all 14 races
- Odds comparison - UK to US morning line - for all 14 races
- Form summaries for 10 races (excluding the two turf sprints, the Dirt Mile, and the FM Turf)
In March I wrote an article ‘How To Bet On 3yo Handicaps’ where I shared my process of applying the principles of ‘Hot Form’ to find well handicapped runners from the classic generation.
At this year’s Doncaster St Leger meeting I wrote daily articles analysing races from a hot form perspective (with a decent level of success) and there were a few requests to expand upon the principle of hot form so here it is.
Hot form is the first thing I look at in any race I’m analysing and it’s responsible for 100% of the runners in my tracker. There are many other important factors I’ll look at before deciding upon a bet in any race but I’m not interested in backing anything that doesn’t have a level of hot form and this is a strategy that has served me very well for the best part of two decades.
What Constitutes Hot Form?
Hot form can be summarised as any race where several runners have subsequently improved their previous finishing positions. So if the 2nd, 3rd and 4th come out of a race and win next time out, that is very hot form.
Wins are the strongest barometer of success but if the 6th, 7th and 8th have all come out and finished 2nd since that could also be described as pretty hot form.
I prefer to mainly concentrate on handicaps when it comes to hot form because the form seems more transferrable from one race to another but hot form can definitely be applied to Group and Listed contests as well as maidens and novices.
Hot form is found in both flat and jumps racing. I prefer to concentrate on flat racing as handicappers over the jumps tend to be more exposed than many of their flat counterparts but I will often use hot form principles when looking at some jumps races too (staying handicaps are my preference).
Why Is Following Hot Form Profitable?
It is not uncommon for several well handicapped runners to participate in the same race. When this happens the best handicapped horse in conditions should win, but that’s not to say the horses that finish slightly down the field, perhaps in 5th and 6th, aren't still well enough handicapped to win an ordinary race.
If two or three runners emerge from a race and all win next time out it stands to reason that other runners who finished in close proximity to those subsequent winners in the original race are also well enough handicapped to win similar contests next time out.
By following hot form throughout the season you should be capable of finding somewhere between 100-200 well handicapped runners. That’s not to say you’ll find 100-200 future winners though. It’s the nature of horse racing that some of these runners will pick up injuries, lose their form, be sold abroad, etc. Others will simply never run quite as well as they did in the hot race you found and some will be campaigned poorly over the wrong trips, on the wrong ground or at the wrong courses.
However many of those 100-200 runners should be capable of reproducing their form again when conditions are in their favour and they’ll win on either their next starts or shortly after.
What About ‘Cold Form’?
Where there is hot form there must be cold form. Some races are very good, some are quite average and many are quite poor. Those poorer races where those that come out of the race struggle to win or even place in their next few runs could certainly be described as cold form.
These colder races can be useful as they’ll often help make the market in many races. A runner that has finished 2nd in a cold race will often be a shorter price than a runner that finished 5th in a hot race. Now that’s a huge generalisation but the bookies definitely seem to put more emphasis on finishing position and proximity to the winner than they do the actual strength of each race. On many occasions a horse will achieve more by finishing 5th in a hot race than 2nd in a cold race.
There is one important note about cold races though. A horse shouldn’t necessarily be disregarded for winning a cold race. If those behind the winner have let the form down it’s certainly not a positive but it’s also not the winner’s fault that those in behind weren’t up to scratch. If the winner was all out to win by a nose then perhaps you can group it with those behind but if the winning distance was even a cosy length the winner may have been a fair bit better than the rest of the field.
How Do I Find Hot Form?
There are two ways to go about finding hot form.
The first is to go through every result and look for races that are beginning to work out. If races are beginning to work out then you can bookmark them. If there have already been a couple of winners from the race you can add other runners who finished close up into your tracker. If a race is working out poorly then it can be disregarded.
Going through every race can be quite painstaking and the much easier method is to use the Geegeez Hot Form Report. You can find any runner with an entry over the next two days (today and tomorrow) that has run in a race with hot form (you set the criteria/filters for hot form). You can search from races 30 days in the past, 45 days in the past, 60 days in the past or 90 days in the past.
My personal preference is to cast the net as wide as possible and then use personal judgement as to whether or not a race is working out rather relying completely on data. This is because the raw data can sometimes be misleading. For example you might see a race where there have seemingly been three winners from three runs. That would initially look very interesting but it might be the case that a horse that won the race by 5 lengths has since followed up with three more wins. Those subsequent exploits aren’t really of any relevance to the rest of the field.
My preferred filters for the Hot Form report would be along the lines of:
Runs – Any – You want to find hot form as early as possible before you’ve missed the boat.
Wins – Any – The next lowest setting is 5 if there have already been 5 winners you’ve missed the boat.
Places – Any – Similar reasoning to the above.
Win Percentage – Min. 20%, Max. 100%. Runners who were well beaten can run poorly again and skew this percentage so don’t set the minimum too high.
Place Percentage - Min. 25%, Max. 100%. Similar reasoning to the above but you can set this one a little higher.
Win PL – Min. Any, Max. Any. It’s worth referencing this in the report but play it safe and leave it as any. The other filters should do the heavy lifting here.
EW PL - Min. Any, Max. Any. Similar reasoning to the above.
You will be presented with plenty of races that are NOT hot form but using these filters should also mean you don’t miss out on some races that are hot form that may have been missed with more prejudicial filters.
If you sort your results by Win Percentage you are likely to find the majority of the most interesting races at the top of the list (races with a minimum of two runs are preferable). However you should remember that each runner’s finishing position (denoted by the ‘Result’ field) in each race is arguably as important as anything else you’ll see in the report. If something has finished 12th in a hot race it’s almost certainly too far back to be of any relevance. How far you should go back can vary from race to race (and is addressed below) but generally you won’t be looking any lower than 6th or 7th and you will most commonly be interested in top 3 or 4 finishes.
Check each well placed runner in a potential hot race by clicking on the Hot Race Date and then click on the Result tab. Ensure ‘Future Form’ in the top left corner of the result page is switched on so you can easily consume the subsequent exploits of each runner. You are looking for good subsequent runs from those that ran well in the race.
The Hot Form report on the day this article is being written can be seen below.
The top horse looks very interesting on the basis of the a 100% subsequent win record from 3 runs. A closer look at the form also looks interesting with the first three places all going on to win next time out, for all only the first two runners won handicaps.
As it turns out Rueben James was well beaten but the theory remains sound and you certainly don’t expect all of the runners to win.
The Most Important Hot Form Considerations
Hot form is not simply a case of judging races based on the finishing positions of subsequent runners from each race. The finishing positions are very important but you have to be able to judge the relative worth of those finishing positions.
Ground
It's unlikely every runner will come out and run on exactly the same ground. If encountering different ground conditions some will improve for this change and others will perform less well. If the ground is different on the subsequent run take a look at the horse’s previous form to judge if the change in going would have suited or not.
A mudlark that came 4th on fast ground and then wins next time in heavy ground won’t necessarily have franked the form. Likewise a mudlark that finishes 2nd in soft ground then 6th on faster ground next time hasn’t necessarily let the form down. In fact in this latter scenario, if the rest of the race is working out, these runners can be great value next time when returned to more favourable conditions.
Distance
You may look at a mile handicap where the winner and the 3rd have since won and you think it is hot form. However if the winner came out and won over ten furlongs and the 3rd subsequently won over twelve furlongs that doesn’t mean this is hot mile form – or cold mile form for that matter.
If the majority of the subsequent winners have won over the same distance then you can draw stronger conclusions about the form being hot.
Race Type
If runners have come out of a race and won or run well always check the type of race they have run in. It’s particularly the case with 3yo handicaps that a runner might drop into maiden company after a decent run in a handicap. An 80 rated horse winning a maiden at 10/11 probably won’t be much of a form boost.
Likewise an 80 rated filly chasing some black type in an Oaks Trial may not be letting the form down by only finishing 5th or 6th.
Class
Not quite as strong a consideration as the race type but class is also important. A runner that was 2nd in a class 4 handicap might only be able to finish 7th in a class 2 handicap but that doesn’t mean they should be disregarded when back down in grade where they’d be more capable of running to their original form.
Course Bias
This is an often overlooked factor but Geegeez readers should know the importance of course biases, namely pace and draw. If a horse comes out of a race and finishes down the field next time out when held up from stall 11 at Chester, or running against any other pace bias, that’s not a sign that the form has been let down.
Use the same marking up and marking down system you would ordinarily use when looking at form when you look back at results and future form.
Distance Beaten
When looking at the subsequent exploits of runners from any given race it’s always worth thinking about how far they have been beaten if they haven’t been victorious since. If something has finished 4th since, but only been beaten half a length, it hasn’t necessarily franked the form but that’s not a bad run at all and shouldn’t be judged too harshly, especially if others are giving the form a strong look.
Luck
Another thing that should be checked is the in running comments from subsequent runs. Some defeats can be pretty much marked up into victories if the horse was particularly unlucky next time out. Alternatively a 5th place finish might have been value for 2nd. It’s another factor that should be investigated.
So Conditions Are Key!
The closer conditions are in subsequent runs compared to the original race, the more reliable the form will be. Where there have been variations in the conditions you’ll have to use your judgement as to whether to mark the form up or down or to put a question mark over it. This is why it makes sense to keep the filters pretty broad in the Hot Form Report. Not all wins (or other finishing positions) are created equal.
How Many Runners Should I Track From A Hot Race?
There is no given formula for this and it depends on several factors.
The simplest explanation is you should follow as many runners from a hot race that have finished in relatively close proximity, or deserved to finish in close proximity, to a runner that has gone close to winning since.
The stronger the race, the more horses you’ll follow from it. If it’s a big field contest that is working out really well you might end up following six, seven or even eight runners from it. If the 2nd, 7th and 8th all win on their next starts you’ll know that at the very least the winner, the 3rd, the 4th, the 5th and the 6th should be of interest in the future. If the 9th was only a head behind the 8th that should be of interest too.
If the first three home have pulled clear in an eight runner field and the 2nd and 3rd have won since but the 4th has run badly then that’s a good sign that the winner is the only one worth following going forward.
What I like to do when I have found what seems to be a hot race is break it up into smaller races. If there was a gap of a couple of lengths between the 4th and the 5th then those are treated as different races and something that finished close to the 5th will need to have won, or gone very close since, for that to be of interest.
When judging these finishing positions in the hot race I am of course considering all the factors listed just above this section (course bias, luck, etc) and marking runners up and down. In many cases you may decide a horse that finished say 6th is worth following but the 5th might not be.
Should I Back Runners That Have Already Won Since?
What we are looking for with hot form is horses that are well handicapped AND are likely to be underestimated by the bookies next time out – therefore offering a value bet with a good chance of winning.
If you have found a race that has worked out well there is always a question mark over whether you follow those who have already won. If something has come out and won by five lengths then the chances are it will be hammered by the handicapper and the opportunity to back it off that sort of mark has gone. If something comes out and win by a neck, perhaps not getting the run of the race, then it may only be punished with a raise of about 2lbs and should still be of interest if a decent enough price next time.
The more a race has worked out, and the stronger it seems to be, the more you’ll probably still want to be with those that have won since, price permitting of course. If the 1st and 3rd have since rated around a stone higher and the 2nd is only 4lbs higher after a win then the likelihood is it’s still pretty well handicapped.
How Long Does It Take For Hot Form To Develop?
Around two weeks after any given race you should find that maybe two runners have run since and given some initial clues as to how strong the form is. Then over the next couple of weeks you should find a few more runners have runs since and by that point you should have a very strong indication of the strength of the form.
There is always a chance of missing the boat, noticing the hot form when it’s all too late and all the runners of interest have already come out and won. As previously mentioned, just because they have already won it doesn’t mean they are of zero interest going forward, but you have already missed one opportunity to successfully back them.
If there are more positive signs than negative signs that a race is working out, for example if the winner and 5th have won since but the 2nd has run poorly, then it’s time to start getting involved. Then the more winners that come out of a race whilst you are following the form, the more confident you can be on your bets going forward. If you’ve already won by backing the 3rd and the 4th, you are going to be pretty keen on the 2nd when it next runs assuming it hasn’t already come out and won itself.
Don’t Get Carried Away With Limited Data
If you have caught a potentially hot race very early, possibly the first horse to come out of a race has already won, you may be tempted to assume lots of others who finished close up are going to also come out and win, or at least run very well.
You do get plenty of ‘false positives’ though. Any horse can improve from race to race and go from running okay in one race to very well in another race. It is always best to wait for at least two runs from a race before you begin to draw conclusions or you may get your fingers burned more often than not.
If you find a race where one horse has come out and won the best strategy is generally to bookmark it and check it regularly. Check the entries of the horses that ran well in the race and when the next horse runs watch the race and be ready to add several other runners to your tracker should it win and confirm the race as hot form.
Continue To Monitor The Form
If you aren’t quite sure if a race is hot form or not, continue to keep an eye on the race. Perhaps there have been two good runs and two bad runs from it, there is no harm in watching how the next couple of runners fare.
It is not completely uncommon for a race to initially just look okay and then start to work out much better. Equally just because a race is beginning to look hot, it isn’t guaranteed to stay that way after a couple more runs.
Don’t be afraid to change your mind about a race. If you are becoming lukewarm towards a race you thought was hot you can reduce your stakes next time a runner comes out of it and then review it again.
Value In Hot Form
One of the main reasons following hot form tends to work so well is you are often aware of something the bookies may have overlooked, or simply don’t think as is important as it is.
Horses that have been previously beaten in handicaps don’t have as sexy a profile as last time out winners, especially those coming from maidens or novices that are completely unproven from their handicap marks. As a result we often get great value on these hot form runners and we can be more confident they will run their races than those making their handicap debuts, or those who have run well in races that are working out less well.
Keeping The Faith
Those horses that you earmark as well handicapped but who fluff their lines on their next starts can often be the runners who offer the best value going forward. There are many reasons why a well handicapped horse might not run to form next time, be it the ground, they could get worked up beforehand, they could pick up a knock or they could just have an off day.
Not all horses that should win because of hot form do actually win but a decent proportion of them won’t win on their next starts but will win shortly after. Keeping the faith in these runs and giving them at least a couple of chances when faced with optimum conditions is important. If a horse fails to run to the same standard without any obvious excuses more than once then it might be time to give up on them.
Hot Form And Race Class
One thing to look out for when deciding which horses to track from a hot race is those that have run pretty well but are capable of dropping a class or two. If you have a class 2 race that is hot form and one of those that ran well in that race drops into a class 4 next time out then this usually offers a great chance for them to get their head in front. They are less likely to bump into anything with similar scope down in grade.
Filling Your Tracker
With all the horses you come across in the search for hot form you should be adding them to your tracker. Add notes about what race was hot, where they finished, if they should be marked up from that run and how hot the form is. You’ll end up deleting some of them off your tracker as your views on each race develop but it’s best to be aware of them when they are entered.
My Favourite Hot Form Race From This Season
The great thing about hot form is the most unlikely races can work out really well. This was the case with a 7f class 5 handicap run at Yarmouth on June 3rd, shortly after racing resumed following lockdown.
This race certainly caught the bookies napping. I’ve added green ticks to the future form screenshot of this race to make the wins easier to spot but that shows eight subsequent wins from twenty-seven subsequent starts from the top seven finishers (26.9% strike rate). The odds of those wins, which is quite remarkable, were:
16/1 7/1 7/1 7/1 3/1 11/2 2/1 16/5
A £10 stake on each of those subsequent runs would have cost £270 and returned £587. That’s an ROI of 117.4% and those prices are at SP. Some of those were available at much bigger prices ahead of their wins.
A Final Note
Hot form is a great way of finding runners that should be successful in the near future and you can add lots of future winners to your tracker. When they are entered they should simply be a starting point in your analysis of any race and this is by no means a short cut or a guarantee of winners. You'll still need to check the relative form of each of the other runners as well as working out the make up of the race and which runners are likely to be seen to best effect. If the runner you have pinpointed has conditions to suit and the price is reasonable it will hopefully be a good bet!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/LaBarrosa_Derab_Ascot.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-10-30 12:09:522020-10-30 12:09:52How To Back More Winners – The Complete Guide To Hot Form
The 4.05 at Doncaster on Saturday afternoon isn’t being shown on terrestrial TV with Cheltenham hogging much of the limelight. But whilst jumps fans are guessing about race sharpness for many runners I’ll be getting stuck into a very interesting flat handicap!
In a change from much of the action in recent weeks this looks like it won’t be run in heavy ground. Phew! That’s not to say it will be an easy contest to figure out, there are still 16, largely in form runners, set to go to post.
Draw
This will be fairly short and sweet as Doncaster is a pretty fair track.
Looking at 7f handicaps run on good to soft or soft ground all draws have a good chance and a fairly even record of both winning and placing. The PRB figures improve slightly as the draw gets higher but the best place strike rate of all the stalls is stall 1 (36.36%) so it’s impossible to narrow the field based on the draw here.
Pace
Is the comparative pace data just as fair as the draw data over Doncaster’s 7f on softish ground?
There is more of a pace bias than draw bias. Front runners have performed best of all here, breaking even to level stakes across the selected races. Front runners contribute both the best win strike rate and place strike rate so the data is pretty strong. Win strike rates drop the further back in the field you are and the place strike rate data follows a similar trajectory, although being held up is slightly more favourable for running into a place than being mid division is.
The IV figures are pretty strong for front and prominent runners and pretty weak for those that race in mid division or the rear so there certainly seems to be an advantage the nearer the pace you are.
The pace of the individual race can be just as important, if not more important, so let’s check out the pace map for this race.
So possible contested pace here which could swing things in favour of those held up near the rear. The pace will be in the centre of the pack, which would suggest they’ll come up the middle of the course which should guarantee no strong draw bias.
Doncaster Trainers
Earlier this season at Newbury I highlighted some insightful trainer data ahead of Tempus winning a handicap there and looking at how trainers approach Doncaster handicaps will hopefully give us some clues here.
There is some strong data based on handicap runs at Doncaster from the trainers with entries in this race. The major positives are for Roger Teal (Bear Force One), Roger Varian (Musicality), Roger Fell (Presidential), Andrew Balding (Grove Ferry) and Ian Williams (Ejtilaab).
The major negatives are Tim Easterby (True Blue Moon), Kevin Ryan (Queens Sargent), Michael Dods (Get Knotted), Richard Fahey (National League and Zap), David O’Meara (Arbalet and Firmanent) and also to a far lesser extent Ralph Beckett (Tomfre).
The Runners
Bear Force One
Still lightly raced and seemingly didn’t stay in the Cambridgeshire last time out. He’s otherwise responded well to the application of cheekpieces this season. The previous couple of races had worked out okay and could he get the run of the race here. Did win on good to soft three starts ago but probably wouldn’t want it any softer. Should run well if the ground isn’t bad and trainer Roger Teal is very profitable to follow here in handicaps.
Tomfre
Inconsistent this season but came good on heavy ground last time out at Leicester, winning by two lengths. The handicapper hasn’t got carried away with that victory only raising him 2lbs but he doesn’t appeal strongly as the type to follow up, for all it’s a possibility.
Firmanent
Ran fairly well in a good race last time out at his beloved York but he looks handicapped to the hilt on current form and is unlikely to better his York form here.
Musicality
Lightly raced and represents Roger Varian who does well in handicaps here. He was slightly below form here over half a furlong shorter at the St Leger meeting but had previously won on soft ground, for all it was just a six runner handicap over 6f and perhaps a 7lb rise for that has found him out. Has a chance but worth taking on with question marks over the handicap mark and the distance.
Grove Ferry
Returned from a short break in August in good form. He was 5th at Sandown behind two next time out winners (did best of those held up) and followed that up with two good efforts at Ascot. The ground looks fine and the drop back in trip looks a positive as his effort has seemingly flattened out towards the end of each race recently.
He's up 3lbs for his latest effort which makes life harder but Andrew Balding does well in handicaps here and if the drop in trip does indeed bring about further improvement he is entitled to go very close.
Queens Sargent
Has improved again this season but form seems to have tailed of in the last couple of races without obvious excuses so it looks more a case of having gone off the boil than being handicapped out of this, for all it’s difficult to argue he’s particularly well handicapped anyway.
Fortamour
Won a decent race last time out at Ascot over a furlong shorter but has won over this distance on the all weather. He’s only up 2lbs for that win and drops in grade so isn’t badly handicapped and he’s run well with cut in the ground this season. His last run at this distance at York has worked out well with the winner going on to land a big pot at Ascot and many of those who ran well have run well in defeat again since. Considering he has been within at least two lengths of the winner in his last eight runs at 6f or 7f this consistent runner appears likely to go well again.
Arbalet
On a losing streak of 22 races and is often overbet after running well in defeat. He was three quarters of a length behind Fortamour at York and is now 6lbs better off so he’s well treated on that form but he’s much better on faster surfaces and wouldn’t be one to back with any confidence for win purposes anyway.
Ejtilaab
He's taken advantage of some slowly run races this season and would most likely not be seen to best effect in a well run race having been well enough beaten off a 1lb lower mark at Ascot in a big field two starts ago. Unproven on softer than good so unlikely to trouble the judge in this contest.
Get Knotted
Tends to run his best races at York and he’s not the force of old. He’d have a chance on a going day with conditions in his favour but he’s not one to put a lot of faith in at the moment.
Breanski
Had no chance behind Raaeq last time at Ascot and difficult to say if that horse franked the form or let it down on Saturday in the Balmoral Handicap, finishing 5th off a 6lb higher mark. Breanksi did finish best of the rest though to record his seventh 2nd or 3rd place finish in his last nine runs. He tends to run well here with two wins from five starts (four starts at this distance) and he beat Presidential (re opposes here) by a quarter of a length in receipt of 1lb in his last course win just over a year ago. Breanski is just 1lb above that winning mark now and is another who looks likely to run very well, for all he isn’t the easiest to win with.
Presidential
Another who goes well at Doncaster, his career form figures here read 143521. He won here over course and distance in June on similar ground to this off a 1lb higher mark and the next two runs of each of the next five runners home produced form figures of 2122224335 so that was a pretty solid race even if only one of the protagonists came out and won shortly after.
He's not completely consistent generally but he is consistent here. His worst form figure came on his run on the fastest ground he has encountered at this course and even finishing 5th in that race off a 1lb higher mark was far from a disgrace as that race worked out particularly well. With everything seemingly in his favour he’s a strong candidate for the shortlist representing a trainer with a very good record in handicaps here.
Alemaratalyoum
Generally at his best when the mud is flying, he’s been difficult to catch right this season and is very difficult to make a case for based on his last couple of runs. First time blinkers are another question mark and although they could spark a revival in form, it seems more likely they’ll just make him underperform further as the sire’s strike rate with horses in this headgear combination is half what it is across all races.
Zap
Difficult to win with, this horse is now on a losing run that dates back over two years. He has been very consistent this season, and has finished 2nd on his last three starts, but this is a step up in class and a much tougher race than those contests. He was 4 lengths behind Presidential here earlier in the season and is only 3lbs better off so he has work to do.
True Blue Moon
He's had an okay season, picking up a win on his penultima start off a 3lb lower mark. He’s generally run better on faster ground this season but he was a close up 4th at Haydock three starts ago and the 1st, 3rd and 6th have all won since and the 2nd filled that runner up spot again on his next start so he wouldn’t be out of it on that form, for all he is 3lbs higher here. His latest run was less promising and he’s probably up against it in this company off this mark but not a hopeless cause.
National League
This is one I gave a good write up for at the St Leger meeting at a big price in what looked like it would be a hot 3yo handicap. He was 3rd that day and better than the bare result, not only because he found trouble in running but also because the ground would have been plenty fast enough that day. What is most disappointing is that race has failed to produce a top 2 finish from nine subsequent runs.
After a below par follow up on ground that should have suited, connections reached for the visor (retained here) and it seemed to help as he ran on into 3rd from a compromising position against two rivals that were up with the pace at Musselburgh. That run against a pace bias was arguably a career best and he’s now down to a mark he won a nursery off last season. He really seems to be crying out for another furlong now though. He’ll probably find a couple too good here but would be of huge interest if finding a mile handicap on soft ground before the season finishes.
Verdict
A race where no winner would be a shock result and many have a very good chance of placing at the very least. Musicality will be on plenty of shortlists but I’m going to go with a longlist of:
Bear Force One
Grove Ferry
Fortamour
Breanski
Presidential
National League
The first and last names on that list aren’t going to make my shortlist. Bear Force One is certainly decent value at around 16/1 but I’m hopeful Ejtilaab will compete for the lead. Plus winter ground, even winter ground that’s not terrible, might compromise his chance. National League should run on well late in the race but I’m not convinced he’s currently well enough handicapped to win at this trip.
So the most solid quartet should be Grove Ferry, Fortamour, Breanski and Presidential. The most compromised, should Bear Force One and Ejtilaab not go a good gallop here, is likely to be Grove Ferry who is dropping back in trip. He’s also drawn very low, and therefore furthest from the pace, which isn’t ideal. He’s therefore passed over for win purposes, although he should run very well.
Breanski is really solid and will run his usual race but he’s been beaten fair and square all season and is a runner would strongly appeal as a place only bet or one to consider for forecasts and tricasts.
So that leaves Fortamour and Presidential. Fortamour has more room to progress and comes here off the back of a very good run so doesn’t really have too many questions to answer. His good runs in softer ground did come over 6f though and this sort of ground over 7f will be a slightly new test for him. Plus in stall 14 he’s drawn a little further from the likely pace than is ideal.
Presidential on the other hand has thrown in plenty of poor runs recently (well beaten in three of his last five starts) but he’s yet to fail to give his running at this course and was a fair bit better than the bare result when not beaten too far at Newmarket last time out. The recent form of both Fortamour and Presidential is very much built into their respective prices and Presidential looks the better value bet and a good each way bet at an early 18/1. The fact that Roger Fell not only has a very good handicap record here but has also saddled two winners, three places and close 4th from his last eight runners at the time of writing just sweetens the pot a little further.
I’ll also be interested in covering the shortlist of four horses in various forecasts and tricasts. Backing four runners that are likely to be nearer the rear than the front early on is perhaps not the best strategy given the pace data highlighted earlier so confidence and stakes will be kept pretty low but hopefully Bear Force One and Ejtilaab will produce a contested pace which would make things look a lot rosier for those that will be held up.
**EDIT** It looked very difficult to make up pace on the straight course at Doncaster on Friday but they didn't have any big fields like this so it should be a little easier to come from slightly further back than it was in some of the smaller fields on Friday. Presidential has often raced more in mid division than right at the back of the field so he should still be able to get involved assuming he breaks on terms.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/HighAcclaim_DavidProbert_SpringMile.jpg320826samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-10-23 14:40:412020-10-23 14:40:41Elect For Presidential At Big Price In Doncaster Handicap
The complexion of this race may have been slightly different had the Challenge Cup not been abandoned a couple of weeks back with several of the main contenders here having been set to contest that race. It certainly looks a cracking contest and hopefully a race where we can find a few strong pointers.
Draw
The straight course draw bias at Ascot tends to play its part in many races but the bias can change from meeting to meeting or even race to race so there are rarely any guarantees.
High draws have generally been favoured on the straight course this season but that may not be the case here. The ground is likely to be soft on Saturday and mile races on ground ranging from good to soft all the way to heavy have tended to favour those drawn middle to low.
The win data doesn’t tell us a lot in this sample but the place data suggests a middle draw can be strongly favoured with almost twice as many places from middle draws compared to low draws and 50% more placed horses from middle compared to high draws. The PRB figures seem to back up what the place data tells us too with low draw PRB the worst at 0.46, high drawn PRB is next best at 0.5 and middle draw PRB is 0.54.
There is a logical explanation for the above data. As previously mentioned the draw bias can vary at Ascot. When it favours the far side the higher drawn horses will generally struggle. When it favours the near side the lower drawn horses will struggle. Either way the middle draws nearly always have a pretty fair chance so of course they tend to do well.
At this particular meeting the ground nearest to the stands’ side is railed off and the stalls are positioned on the far side of the course. So compared to a standard meeting at Ascot the higher drawn horses actually race in what is normally the middle of the track and the lower drawn runners are positioned where they’d normally be.
The effect of this in recent years has been that the jockeys have tended to want to stick towards the far side rail. Last year’s first two home were drawn 21 and 20 but that doesn’t tell the whole story – they ended up on the far rail and looked to win in spite of their draws. The runners the previous year also headed towards the far rail and stall 8 was responsible for the winner but it’s also worth noting that five of the highest nine drawn runners were amongst the first seven finishers. In 2017 they largely came down the middle and although the winner came from stall 3, he actually finished nearer the stands’ side than any other runner. The next four finishers that year were drawn 18, 17, 15 and 23.
So what the above tells you, that draw data doesn’t necessarily do, is that if they elect to go far side as they have done for the past two years, the high draws are probably slightly disadvantaged but still well capable. If they go up the middle of the course then high draws may well have the advantage. Now we don’t know before the start of the race where they are likely to go so all in all, the safer bets will probably be in the middle.
Pace
Looking at a similar sample of data as we did for the draw, it looks very much as though we should lean towards those who are likely to be held up.
Only one winner has made all in these conditions since 2009 and that was Musaddas in 2015. He proved very well handicapped on the day (won another handicap two starts later) and the fact that only three front runners have placed, producing a place strike rate of 11.54% suggests only extremely well handicapped front runners should be considered.
The place strike rate gets progressively better the further back in the field you are and extreme hold up tactics seem to work well over a mile in these conditions with an almost 100% improvement in place strike rate compared to all other run styles. An IV of 1.44 is also much stronger than all other pace types and there have been more held up winners than all other run styles combined. So unlike the slightly inconclusive draw stats we had, we have some very conclusive pace data here.
There is unlikely to be a frantic pace to this race with only one likely front runner in the field so a degree of caution should be applied in regards to following the above data that suggests you want to be at the very back of the field. The data is still very strong though so you may well want to be no further forward than mid division on this occasion.
The Jockeys
I’ve seen some interesting jockey stats about which jockeys are worth following at Ascot on different types of ground and they seem worth exploring here with very testing ground likely.
The above data shows the jockeys in this race that have previously rode at least once on ground that is between good to soft and heavy in an Ascot handicap before, sorted by IV. This data is more useful ahead of Champions Day as a whole rather than just this race but it does give a good guide as to which which jockeys might be worth a couple of extra pounds advantage.
Considering the lack of data for some riders, the major positives seem to be Nicola Currie (Graignes), William Buick (Blue Mist), Ben Curtis (Kynren), Jamie Spencer (Hortzadar), Jim Crowley (Raaeq), Hollie Doyle (Solid Stone), Frankie Dettori (Alternative Fact) and Oisin Murphy (Bell Rock). It’s worth noting that Nicola Currie’s wins have come courtesy of her association with Raising Sand, a soft ground Ascot specialist who is ridden here by Saffie Osbourne, so a slight pinch of salt must be taken with her figures.
The major negatives appear to be Stevie Donohue (Raakib Alhawa), Andrea Atzeni (Prince Eiji) and Tom Queally (Ropey Guest).
The Runners
Raaeq
He took his form to a new level last time out with an easy win here over 7f on similar ground to this. That was his first run on a soft surface and he seemed to improve for it. He runs with a 6lb penalty which leaves him 5lbs well in still. He’s only had five starts, has never finished out of the first 2 and looks the obvious ‘group horse in a handicap’.
He seems to be the sole pace angle in the race which could suit him but it’s going to be a lot harder dominating a 20+ runner field over a mile than an eight runner 7f race.
The above image shows how well front runners do in small fields here in softish ground. Compare that to the first image in the pace section of this article which shows the record of front runners and you see very different figures. He’ll probably need to be at least a Group 2 performer to win this from the front and although he looked to improve for the ground last time out, he also probably improved for the drop back to 7f, a distance at which he is unbeaten. No surprise if he wins but judgement call is to oppose at the price.
Tempus
Course and distance winner who will enjoy conditions. Seemingly had no excuses last time out when well drawn in the Cambridgeshire when running with plenty of credit in 6th (only 0.25 lengths away from 3rd). He maybe would have preferred softer ground that day but it would be difficult to argue he didn’t stay. He’s 2lb higher here and there is still a nagging doubt about him never really having beaten much (beat fourteen runners in two wins this season and none of them have subsequently hit the frame in any race). Even last time out he still finished worst of the well drawn form horses, albeit not beaten that far. Looks certain to run pretty well but not sure he’s well enough handicapped anymore to win a race as deep as this.
King Ottokar
One I quite fancied for the abandoned Challenge Cup but I had two slight doubts. The first was the drop back to 7f, which may have actually suited but it was a risk for a horse that had previously run so well at 10f. The other doubt was the trainer form with Charlie Fellowes’ horses not running that well at the time but he’s had five wins and three places from his last thirteen runners so that’s no longer a concern - in fact it's a positive.
He was a big eyecatcher last time out at Doncaster, making up ground effortlessly 3f out before running into the back of horses. He found less than seemed likely when getting clear which probably tempted connections to drop him back in trip but the ground was on the fast side then and it could have been just as likely that the ground compromised his finishing effort, not the trip. Both his wins have come in soft ground and so has all his best form.
The subsequent form of his last run isn’t great but remarkably none of those subsequent runs from the opposition came in similar conditions with most running on soft ground since. If you look back to Royal Ascot 2019, the last time King Ottokar ran to form on soft ground, he was just a neck behind Fox Chairman. That horse quickly developed into a 110+ rated horse so King Ottokar certainly should be well handicapped here off 100. The only doubt this time around is stall 22 as this could be major disadvantage if they all go far side. It wasn’t a barrier to success last year though and the going stick readings are quicker on the stands’ side which gives some hope they may come middle to stands' side.
Keats
This listed winner from two weeks ago runs under a 6lbs penalty making his mark 107. That would put a lot of people off but when a horse is trained by Aidan O’Brien and it runs in an Ascot handicap people take notice. His runners make a 7.0 LSP in Ascot handicaps since 2009 so that respect is warranted. All three of those winners came at Royal Ascot though over the years and none were rated higher than 104 so this would be some performance to win and Keats has only ever won on good ground. He looks one of the easier well fancied horses to oppose.
Njord
Another Irish challenger and a much more interesting one. He’s been a big improver going up 41lbs in the handicap over the past two seasons, often running well in big field handicaps. His record on ground with the word ‘soft’ in the going description during that time is 1231125 and that latest 5th was when meeting trouble in running off a 2lb higher mark when still beaten less than 2 lengths. The 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th from that race have all placed since so it wasn’t a bad race. He was last seen when 4th on good ground in a 9f listed race. He was 1.5 lengths behind Keats that day giving that rival 5lbs and he now receives 2lbs so it would be a slight shock if Keats could confirm that form. Keats is drawn 21 and Njord is drawn 4 so a stands’ side draw advantage seems to be the only thing that could swing things in Keats’ favour.
Given his consistent profile and liking for conditions he looks a fair each way shout and should run very well if a low draw isn’t an inconvenience.
Raising Sand
He was my fancy in the abandoned Challenge Cup but I’m slightly more lukewarm about his chances here. He loves soft ground and Ascot plus Saffie Osbourne is a useful 7lbs taken off his back but I’ve always thought he was a bit better over 7f than a mile. His two mile wins at Ascot have come off marks of 89 and 92 in smaller fields than this whereas his two 7f wins here have come off 97 and 103 in fields of 15 and 23.
He ran well over course and distance in the Hunt Cup this season from a poor draw but was ‘only’ 6th in this two years ago off 102 in similar ground and that sort of finish may be most likely again this time around.
River Nymph
He won comfortably here two starts ago and followed that up with another easy success when beating two next time out winners at Newbury. He was well fancied for the Challenge Cup that was abandoned and should still be well handicapped despite going up 11lbs for his latest win. He ran well over Lingfield’s 6f earlier this season and although well handicapped that day (18lbs lower) and looking like he wanted further it does still cast some doubt over his ability to get a mile.
The sire’s runners tend to get worse the further they go and this isn’t really the kind of ground you want to be testing your stamina in so he’s much easier to oppose here than he was over 7f, although he’s respected based on his achievements this season. Stall 14 gives the jockey some options at least.
Bell Rock
Finished 3rd in the Cambridgeshire, a quarter of a length ahead of Tempus. That run was a career best but he was well drawn that day, has seemingly improved for trips beyond a mile on his last two starts and is unproven on soft ground. There is also a doubt mark over the first time cheekpieces. Bell Rock is by Kingman who has a 17.67% strike rate with his progeny. That drops to just 12.82% when cheekpieces are applied which isn’t the worst record but is hardly a ringing endorsement either. Too many question marks.
Blue Mist
He's generally been expensive to follow and although he won a big pot here in July, that was over 7f in a race where only one of the first fourteen finishers has won since. He doesn’t convince over a mile and William Buick, who rides well here on soft, will need to get some improvement from this horse to reach the frame.
Orbaan
He has some decent form to his name with a 7th at York in August potentially a career best with the 5th and 6th winning handicaps since. He’s been behind Tempus twice this season though without real excuses and although a 6lb swing in the weights should get him closer it might not be enough to get 3 lengths closer. He should run creditably but in all probability he’ll finish just outside the places. He can win in slightly calmer waters.
Kynren
Was amongst the favourites for the Challenge Cup but a run at 6f at York last week looked a mistake with him finishing well beaten. No surprise to see him bounce back from that at a track where he has run plenty of good races but this trip seems to stretch him a bit – he’s finished 5th, 5th and 6th over course and distance on softish ground and those first two runs were off lower marks. He’ll need a career best to take this, although he’s nicely drawn in 13.
Alternative Fact
Frankie Dettori is an interesting booking, he’s finished 2nd and 3rd on this horse in two runs and is clearly booked when a big run is expected. The last time they paired up was here in the Silver Hunt Cup when just 1.75 lengths behind Sir Busker, who has since rated 15lbs higher. Alternative Fact has gone up 7lbs himself since then though having run three excellent races at Haydock, where he often gets his required ground. His last run at York when 6th of 20 deserves marking up as he was drawn very wide and ended up with too much to do.
He doesn’t scream brilliantly handicapped but the course and the ground are in his favour, as is the jockey booking. Stall 16 isn’t the end of the world, even if they go far side, and he’s one at a price that could easily run into the places and looks nailed on to give his running.
Best Of The Rest
It's slightly surprising to see Solid Stone priced up at 20/1 given he’s normally overbet (started favourite in eight of his thirteen runs including five of his last six). He hasn’t encountered this sort of ground since his 2yo days though and has presumably been kept away from it on purpose. He’d have a chance if handling conditions.
Greenside will handle the ground and does well here but looks better at 7f these days. Prince Eiji has run well on both starts here and handles the ground but he ran a shocker last time out and Atzeni doesn’t have a good record here in soft ground. Ropey Guest will like the ground and has Ascot form but he looks better at 7f and he’d have had a better chance had the Challenge Cup gone ahead.
Jamie Spencer could potentially get a tune out of Hortzadar but he looks handicapped to the hilt now and hasn’t run well in two starts at Ascot. Graignes has some smart French form in Group 1 races but if he was capable of winning this off 104 you’d have expected him to run better in similar conditions last time out in a Group 3.
Verdict
This perhaps isn’t quite as difficult a puzzle as it first seems with some of the main protagonists not likely to be seen to best effect over a mile on soft ground. Other simply don’t look well handicapped anymore.
The most interesting trio may well by King Ottokar, Njord and Alternative Fact. Tempus and to a slightly lesser extent Raising Sand should run well also but neither are fancied for win purposes.
Njord seems to enjoy the hustle and bustle of these kinds of races and is still reasonably handicapped. He seems most interesting at the prices of those drawn low. Meanwhile Alternative Fact is perhaps the ‘safe each way’ given he has everything in his favour and he’s not drawn far from the middle. At around 12/1 (well backed in the past 24 hours) with as many as 6 places on offer he’s worth a bet.
But as far as likely winners go King Ottokar seems to have an awful lot in his favour. He loves soft ground, he has run well here before, his trainer is in excellent form, he’s run well in a handicap on his last start and has been dropped 2lbs since then and he’s completely unexposed as a miler still. If there is one question mark it’s his very high draw but by the time the three reserves have come out he’ll effectively be racing from stall 19. If a high draw was to be an advantage he’d look an extremely good bet but we won’t know that until it’s too late. He’s shortening all the time and 8/1 in a big field like this might still seem short but he’s a very interesting runner and I’m willing to risk the draw. It might be worth backing him win only as around 8/5 to finish in the top 5 or 6 might not look great after a couple of furlongs if they all go far side.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Lord-Glitters.jpg320773samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-10-16 13:02:422020-10-16 13:02:42King Set To Be Crowned In Balmoral Handicap
The big handicap this weekend has to be the Cesarewitch. It’s going to be a real test this year on soft ground but who is going to come out on top in this cavalry charge?
Draw
The Cesarewitch draw is much talked about and the general consensus is a low draw is best but how strong a draw bias is there over this marathon trip?
It can be a common misconception that just because a high draw is a negative, that a low draw must be better than a middle draw. Looking at the above stats there have been almost twice as many wins from middle draws compared to low draws with the place figures neck and neck between the two. High draws though compare miserably with just a solitary win and on average high draws are producing less than one place per race which means all but the very well handicapped high drawn runners can possibly be ignored, even for a place.
The A/E and IV figures favour middle draws much more so than low draws but the PRB can barely be separated between low and middle draws. So in terms of chances of winning or placing there probably isn’t much between a low draw and a middle draw but it seems clear the bookies overreact to those drawn low and offer better value on those coming from the middle stalls.
Over the years this race has been run on a variety of going conditions, will softer ground amplify the draw bias or negate it?
Looking at races on soft or good to soft, we have far less data so we should tread with caution slightly, but what we seem to be seeing here is a slightly stronger focus on low draws compared to middle. The PRB figures give us the most data and low draw PRB goes from 0.54 to 0.57 on softer ground, whilst middle drawn PRB drops from 0.53 to 0.52. High drawn PRB also decreases from 0.43 to 0.41. So the data is very similar and it’s possible the going doesn’t make any difference but if softer ground does affect the draw bias it makes a lower draw more important rather than less important.
In such a big field plenty of runners fall into the category of low, middle and high and it can be of benefit to find a cut off point for where a good draw becomes a bad draw.
Looking at the individual draw figures, sorted by PRB3, on all but fast ground, gives us some interesting figures. Stalls 1-10 fill ten of the best eleven results with only stall 19 crashing the party.
It’s worth noting that stall 27 has a 30% place strike rate but the only other stall that is 20 or higher to manage even a 15% place strike rate is stall 22 (20%). So given that twelve of the fourteen best place strike rates belong to horses drawn 19 or lower that seems a good cut off point for where a good draw starts to become a bad draw. Five of the best six place strike rates remarkably belong to horses drawn in bottom six stalls so away from fast ground a very low draw is clearly of benefit to each way punters.
Pace
Front runners have an advantage at most distances in horse racing but generally speaking the further you go, the less of an advantage it becomes.
It’s a common theme in horse racing that those ridden nearer the pace will offer better value and out and out front runners have a good strike rate here with two winners from just eighteen runs. As horses are given more to do here over this trip they produce more places but from more runners. So just because more placed horses are held up than any other run style, that doesn’t mean they are advantaged. They certainly aren’t disadvantaged either though with only prominent racers having a better each way strike rate.
The going can affect pace bias so let’s have a quick look at the same data on ground that is good to soft or softer.
We have less data here so win percentages seem less relevant but there is a decent amount of place data on offer and it looks as though front runners are only advantaged on faster ground - their record in softer conditions isn't good. The majority of placed horses are coming from nearer the back but there isn’t a massive difference between the place percentages whether you are prominent, mid division or held up. What is noteworthy though is the huge IV of those coming from mid division so that does look the ideal race position on this kind of ground.
In terms of this race, with so many runners the pace map is rather large.
There is guaranteed pace in here from Mukha Magic and potentially another 5 or 6 who could easily try to force the pace or dispute it – this should be run at a good gallop and stamina is likely to be well tested. Those who are settled somewhere around mid division are likely to be seen to best effect.
Draw and Pace Combination
One of the best visuals on Geegeez Gold for me is the draw/pace heat maps. They give such a good snapshot of where you might want to be placed depending on your draw.
Showing data for PRB on course and distance races run on good or softer, this gives a strong indication that low drawn horses that don’t lead are well served. If you are drawn in the middle racing prominently can be advantageous and extremes of rides suit those that are drawn much wider.
Jumps Experience
You often hear that you need a jumps trainer/horse for this kind of test so let’s see if that’s actually the case.
The last two winners of this race were saddled by Willie Mullins so both had of course previously run over hurdles. In 2015 Grumeti won for Alan King and the previous year Big Easy was the winner for Phillip Hobbs. That’s four of the last six winners having previously jumped a hurdle.
In 2017 the 2nd and 3rd were hurdlers and in 2016 the 5th and 6th were jumpers so it does seem that the proven stamina of those that have national hunt experience comes in handy.
The Runners
Coltrane
Was impressive in the Melrose last time and has been saved for this since but there has only been one 3yo winner of this race this century and he’s as yet unproven over further than 14f. Add stall 34 to the mix and he is going to have to improve plenty for this step up in trip to figure. That’s possible but the draw makes it easy to put a line through him.
Great White Shark
She was a late plunge in this race last year (11/1 into 7/1) but seemed to run a bit flat, finishing 10th. She’s now 3lb lower this time and her latest flat effort, when a close 7th to Princess Zoe at Galway when better than the bare result, makes her a leading contender. Stall 20 is just about okay but she doesn’t always translate her Galway form elsewhere and needs to step up massively on last year’s effort. No surprise to see her go well but it’s not guaranteed and that’s not really reflected in the price.
Leoncavallo
Form figures of 211 since joining David Pipe – he’s clearly found the key to this one. He’s up 8lbs for an impressive win last time out on good to soft but that form has been let down a few times and not only does he have stall 29 to contend with, he’s only won once from seven attempts on soft ground and that was when winning by a nose at odds of 4/6. He’s proven over this far both as a flat horse and a jumps horse but is a little risky on this ground.
Not So Sleepy
Clearly laid out for this with just one run since March which was an easy victory over just 12f at Pontefract in a 4 runner handicap. He’s 2lbs well in under a penalty and goes very well in soft ground. He’s got experience over hurdles and was a good 4th in this last year under similar conditions. Stall 4 looks great and there is an awful lot to like about this horse. He’s likely to be somewhere between mid division and prominent which will be fine. The only nagging doubt is he’s 4lbs higher than when beaten over 6 lengths in this 12 months ago. That was arguably a deeper renewal though so no surprise if he at least places once again.
Just Hubert
He can be difficult to catch right (fairly well beaten on four of his six starts this term) but he’s well suited by a massive test of stamina, as was demonstrated when he won the Goodwood Stakes this summer over 2f further. Most of his best efforts have come on faster ground but many of his poorer runs on softer ground have been followed up with a poor run on a faster surface so it wasn’t necessarily the ground that held him back on those occasions. He won on good to soft as a juvenile and did run well at Chester on soft ground last year. A quick look at the Profiler tool for the sire’s offspring suggests soft ground shouldn’t be a problem and it will certainly help bring out his stamina. Stall 17 is fine.
Rock Eagle
Hasn’t taken much racing but the result of that is he’s still unexposed at the age of 5. He’s a winner here and shaped as though he might stay further when staying on well over 14f at Salisbury last time out but he’s never encountered ground softer than good and has stamina to prove so whilst he has potential he’s a very risky proposition.
Lightly Squeeze
**Didn’t get in**
First reserve at the time of writing and will only get a run if there is a non runner before 1pm on Friday. This comment will be left in even if he doesn’t make the cut - it will make a nice ‘what if?’!
Lightly Squeeze seems to have an absolutely ideal profile here. He’s been progressive over hurdles since joining Harry Fry - his hurdle rating has risen from 108 to 137. His last run over hurdles was when falling at the last, in the lead, in the Betfair Hurdle. He’s had just the one flat run since then and that was a very interesting run indeed. He drifted from 3/1 to 5/1 before the off (suggesting this was a prep or the run would be needed) but he ran really well. He moved smoothly into contention and was disputing the lead a furlong out before tiring slightly into 3rd. The winner has won again since and the 4th has won both starts since so that was clearly decent form.
The 14f of that race was the furthest he has gone on the flat but his sire (Poet’s Voice) has a 100% place record with progeny over this trip on the flat and he’s also won over a furlong further over hurdles. All his best form is with plenty of cut in the ground and to top it all off he’s drawn in stall 1.
He would have to run from 3lbs out of the handicap but he was due to go up 2lbs for his recent run anyway so is effectively only 1lb wrong.
What a shame it will be if he misses the cut by one place!
Mondain
He's officially the best in here with his 4lb penalty still leaving him 3lbs well in. He’s pretty much proven at the trip having won at 17.5f last time out at Ayr. In fact his record at 2m or further reads 1121 whereas his 14f record reads 3255589442 so stamina definitely appears his forte. It looks as though he’s been ridden with a little more restraint in recent starts (as opposed to front running) which is probably a good thing given front runners seem to have struggled in his race on softer ground and stall 19 is fine but there is a slight question mark over the ground, he seems to have run his best races on good or good to soft ground (beaten 5+ lengths in three starts on soft). He’s also been running in much weaker contests than this recently so there has to be a doubt about how well handicapped he is for this. He has a definite chance if okay on the ground though.
Best of the Rest
Couer De Lion would have been very interesting on this ground but he’s been drawn in stall 35 and doesn’t have too many secrets from the handicapper so that’s him ruled out. Dalton Highway is quite interesting on some of his form with Great White Shark and he’ll enjoy the ground but stall 27 makes his task even harder. Diocletian will like the ground and shapes as though he may get further but he’s run relatively poorly in all four starts over 2m or further so he can’t be backed with any confidence for all he’d be capable of running very well if he did stay.
True Destiny loves having his stamina tested and runs well in good staying handicaps but he’s difficult to win with and the ground has probably gone against him. Cleonte is well drawn and fairly handicapped but has been in poor form on his last three runs.
Perhaps most interesting of the rest is Gold Arch who could offer some value at a very big price. He’s not the easiest ride and can be awkward under pressure but he’s had a more consistent profile this season for William Knight, finishing in the first four in all five starts. On his first run at 2m he had to be hard ridden half a mile from home and he stayed on well into 2nd. It was a similar story next time out over the same trip at Ripon, a course that wouldn’t have suited his running style. On that occasion he ran on into a never nearer 4th. He then ran over 16.5f at Wolverhampton on his latest start and once again stayed on late behind two rivals who were more forwardly ridden. He made up a lot of ground again late that day to finish 3rd (True Destiny who is a shorter price here was just a short head in front) and although it could be argued that he’s better on all weather than turf (very possibly true) he’s yet to have his stamina fully tested on turf and may well enjoy the softer ground.
Verdict
Obviously this is a wide open race and it’s more a case of finding a few runners who have been underestimated by the bookies than looking for the most likely winner. Those at the head of the market look too skinny for a variety of reasons and there is definitely value to be found elsewhere.
With Lightly Squeeze not getting a run the shortlist is going to be:
Not So Sleepy
Just Hubert
Mondain
Gold Arch
Not So Sleepy is perhaps the most solid of the of the quartet having run well in this last year. He’s well drawn, stays the trip and comes here in form and fresh. It’s a concern that he’s 4lbs higher this time around but perhaps being a fresher horse this year will make the difference. He’s a solid each way at 12/1, especially with as many as 8 places on offer, but the suspicion has to be he’ll find a couple too good.
Just Hubert still looks fairly handicapped and whilst the ground is a slight concern he’ll absolutely adore this stamina test. There is a bit more risk involved compared to backing Not So Sleepy but he’s as big as 18/1 so he could be slightly more rewarding too.
Similar sentiments apply to Mondain. He’s technically well handicapped here and seems well suited to a real stamina test but he hasn’t really finished amongst well handicapped horses this season so could find this too competitive. There is also a small worry about the ground conditions suiting, for all he is proven on good to soft.
Now Gold Arch is riskier than the other three but at 50/1 (including with SkyBet who are offering 8 places) he looks the value play here. He can be a difficult ride, he needs reminders, riding along early and often carries his head high. However the further he goes, the stronger he gets and this long straight and extra distance could well be the making of him. He’s been a consistent horse this season in a visor so should be a decent each way bet despite not having yet registered a win on turf. It’s just a shame they don’t run the Cesarewitch at Wolverhampton as he’d be a near certainty there!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Stratum_Cesarewitch.jpg320830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-10-09 12:35:592020-10-09 12:35:59Going For Gold In The Cesarewitch
The big handicap this weekend is the Challenge Cup at Ascot and with ‘just’ 18 runners set to go to post it may turn out to be an easier puzzle than the usual big field Ascot handicaps.
The ground is going to be a huge factor with somewhere in the region of 20-30mm of rain potentially falling on Friday and Saturday. It takes a lot of rainfall to make the straight course at Ascot heavy but it might not be far off that come race time on Saturday.
Before we look at each runner’s form and ability to handle underfoot conditions let’s first look at the draw and pace set up for the race.
Draw
All metrics point towards high being favoured over low, although it’s worth noting that there isn’t a huge difference in PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) across the board.
Looking just at handicaps run on soft or heavy, there is far less data but it seems to swing things back in favour of lower draws.
What’s particularly interesting here is the PRB figures. There isn’t much between middle and high here but the low draw PRB is 0.57 which is a huge leap from the middle to high PRB.
It’s worth noting that the reason there are only 18 runners here is the field sizes are limited at this meeting because half of the course is railed off to save the ground for Champions Day. This possibly renders much of the above draw data irrelevant.
Three of the last four renewals of this race have been run on soft ground and the draws of the first five finishers in those races are as follows:
Now that’s a fairly small sample but it’s the most relevant draw data we have for this individual race. It seems significant that in those races eleven of the top fifteen finishers were drawn in double figure stalls and no runner from the lowest four stalls managed to finish in the top five at all.
It’s by no means certain that this trend will continue but it does seem as though a higher draw will be preferable to a lower draw at this meeting on soft.
Pace
Pace is not only important in telling us what race position the winner is most likely to come from, but where the pace is drawn can have an strong impact on a possible draw advantage.
There is a possible contested speed here with front runners drawn in stalls 5, 7 and 13. Every runner in the field should have speed to track so there certainly shouldn’t be a micro advantage based on where the pace is.
Ascot is generally thought of as a course for hold up horses but they’re not necessarily majorly advantaged at this trip on softer ground.
No run style has produced more wins or placed runners than being held up with cut in the ground but that’s from more runners. Prominent runners actually seem to offer the best value (IV 1.33) with front runners performing worst of all.
The Place % data is very similar across the board though so we should get a very fair track and the pace at which this race is run will likely determine where the winner comes from more than anything else. With three front runners in the field this could set up for something more patiently ridden.
The Runners
Kynren
Last year’s winner carries 4lbs more this time around. He ran poorly in his first two starts this season but benefitted from a wind op last time when a creditable 5th in the Ayr Gold Cup off this mark, over a trip short of his best. Three of his four wins have come on soft ground and he’s only been beaten by one runner in two course and distance runs (beat 40 rivals home in those two races) so everything looks in place for a big run and William Carver claims 5lbs. He’s drawn very low in stall 3 though.
River Nymph
Progressive 3yo who has won his last two starts comfortably, rising 17lbs in the process. The 2nd and 3rd from his last win have both come out and won since so he’s fully deserving of his latest 11lb rise and he is also proven in soft ground. This course and distance winner is entitled to run extremely well if tracking the pace from stall 12 although it’s worth noting his trainer Clive Cox was quoted as being glad the ground had dried a little last time out (on soft) so if it was to go heavy it might not be ideal.
Raising Sand
A regular fixture in this race, he was below par last year but won this two years ago and was 3rd to smart pair Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters three years ago. He’ll be ideally suited by conditions here but it’s just a question of how well handicapped he is. He won here last year off a 4lb lower mark and was 1st home on the far side in the Royal Hunt Cup off a 1lb higher mark on his only start this season. He was 8th overall in that race and the first 4 home all won at least once since so that’s strong form considering his draw was so bad on that occasion. He’s fared better this time around in stall 11.
Saffie Osbourne is a very interesting jockey booking. She’ll be claiming 7lbs and has a 28% strike rate in the past fortnight. Her claim could definitely be the difference between a good run in defeat and victory.
Blue Mist
Finally came good here in July after many near misses but that race worked out poorly with no horse from the first seven home winning since and he’s now 5lbs higher. He once again found next to nothing back here a month ago and he’s not one to completely rely upon.
King Ottakar
One that might be overlooked here. He’s largely struggled for the past 12 months but there were definite signs of life back in handicap company last time out at Doncaster over a mile He was cruising 2f out, making up ground with ease, until he ran into the back of the leading group and lost his momentum. He finished well enough but the way he travelled and his finishing effort perhaps suggested he’d be best suited by this drop in trip. That run came on ground that was faster than ideal so he deserves to be marked up again. He’s won twice on soft and is down 2lbs so has a leading chance if the trip isn’t too sharp. Stable form not great though.
Shelir
Has benefitted from being ridden more forward in his recent starts having often caught the eye from off the pace (including here). Should find conditions in his favour but doesn’t look that well handicapped anymore and may find dominating this field difficult.
Greenside
Runner up in this last year off a 7lbs lower mark and although he’s been running well again this season he’s 3lbs worse off with Kynren ignoring jockey claims. He’s likely to run fairly well and a place isn’t out of the question but a win seems very unlikely.
Admirality
Often the bridesmaid, he’s finished 2nd on his last four racecourse appearances. He’s up another 3lbs and although still competitively handicapped he has often seemed better on faster ground.
Best Of The Rest
Orbaan should enjoy the ground and isn’t badly handicapped but whether or not he wants 7f in this tough a race is open to debate.
Blown By Wind will pop up at a big price at some point and he’s probably at his best in testing ground but he’s often slowly away. If he breaks on terms he’s one to consider as an in-running back.
Young Fire is interesting back up in trip on this ground. He’s won two of his last three starts at 7f on soft ground but he possibly goes best at Haydock.
What If The Ground Turns Heavy?
Eight of these runners have never encountered heavy ground before and seven have run on it only once so form on very testing ground isn’t easy to find. Blown By Wind and Ropey Guest both have a 100% record of at least placing on heavy but both have only run once on it.
Instant Expert on Geegeez Gold is an excellent tool to get huge amounts of data for each runner and it can be just as enlightening to look at sires in Instant Expert, especially in extremes of going.
Garswood, sire of complete outsider Gabrial The Wire, has an excellent record in heavy ground as a sire as does Dubawi, who gave us Greenside. The sires of Kimifive, Hey Jonesy and Jack’s Point also produce plenty of mudlarks but that trio of runners may struggle to see 7f out on very deep ground.
Verdict
Perhaps the most interesting runner here is River Nymph, who is the one who is potentially still a fair bit ahead of his mark despite going up plenty for his last two wins. If the ground is no worse than soft he looks sure to run very well.
King Ottakar is very tempting on this ground having caught the eye last time and he is certainly overpriced at 10/1 at the time of writing. It looks as though the drop to 7f should suit but it’s a risk, and the trainer form is worrying.
So slightly unoriginal but it may pay to stick with Kynren and Raising Sand. They’ve won this for the last two years between them and were both better than the bare form of their more recent runs. They may not be amazingly handicapped but both have talented claimers on board which could make all the difference. The draw is possibly a concern for Kynren so unless previous races tell us low is better than high then Raising Sand has to be the most solid each way selection at 7/1. Raising Sand has won here for the past four years and can hopefully make it five in a row.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Lord-Glitters.jpg320773samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-10-02 12:53:062020-10-02 16:31:50Previous Winners Of Interest In Challenge Cup
The Cambridgeshire is undoubtedly the big betting race of the day on Saturday and it’s certainly the most difficult puzzle of the weekend for us punters.
When approaching a race like this it’s not uncommon to come out of it with a shortlist of at least ten runners unless we can find a way to narrow down the field. Often in races like this the draw is the easiest way to rule chunks of the field out . In 2016 it looked as though high draws would be favoured and by backing my favoured two high drawn runners I was able to (huge aftertime incoming!) back the 328/1 winning exacta. I’ll be examining more than just the draw here though.
Draw
The 9f distance over which the Cambridgeshire is run isn’t a common one and most years we have the Silver Cambridgeshire the day before to give us some draw hints. There is no such race this year though and two days of largely small field races this week haven’t told us much about a potential current draw bias, although the centre of track seems to be where a lot of the action has taken place.
Looking at the Draw Analyser in Geegeez Gold for this 9f trip at Newmarket, we have data for twenty-two races run on ground ranging from soft to good to firm in field sizes of 16+ since 2009:
Remarkably there has been little to no long term draw bias over this course and distance. The win figures are almost exactly the same across the board, the place figures are almost identical and the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) data is exactly the same for low, middle and high draws.
More recently higher draws have seemed advantaged though. Looking at the eight qualifying races since 2016 gives quite a different outlook:
It looks as though the higher the better as far as recent draws are concerned with high draws having twice as strong a place ratio compared to low draws and all other metrics improving the higher you are drawn.
It has been profitable to blindly back several stalls each way since 2016 and six of the top seven most profitable stalls have been 19 or higher.
One thing to note about straight course draw advantages is they can often change depending on the ground. It looks as though this race will be run on something close to good to soft ground. In 2017 this race was run on good to soft ground and whilst the 1st and 5th home stuck to the near side rail, six of the first eight home actually raced in the far side group. That year’s Silver Cambridgeshire, run on the same good to soft ground, saw 16 runners start on the far side and finish on the stands’ side with the winner once again getting the near side rail on the run in.
In summary it’s been advantageous in recent years to be drawn higher in this race, especially if able to race predominantly against the near side rail. Lower draws however are certainly able to place at the very least and a middle draw is fine, especially on good to soft ground.
Pace
Newmarket is often a course that favours those who are near the pace but big fields and a strong early gallop at any course can often swing things in favour of those who are held up, especially over slightly longer distances.
The Geegeez Gold Pace Analyser shows us that in this race it can be an advantage to lead in this race, leaders have the highest win percentage and place percentage and have produced a win P&L 15.0. So the best value will likely be found with front runners. In terms of volume, most wins and places are held up in mid division or in the rear.
It’s potentially worth noting, despite very limited data, that in two recent course and distance races on good to soft ground no horse that was held up in the rear even reached the frame.
In this year’s renewal there are plenty of potential front runners and the pace seems fairly even across the track so on that score it should be a pretty fair contest.
The Distance
When recently analysing a 6.5f race at Doncaster a trend emerged that recent winners tended to be 6f horses, with 7f specialists almost always finding it too sharp a test.
This race is contested by a mixture of milers and ten furlong performers - is there a bias towards speed or stamina?
Seven of the last ten winners of this race raced at a mile before taking this contest and five subsequently won a race over further. This seems to suggest this is slightly more of a speed contest than stamina contest (and you certainly don’t need to be proven over further than a mile) but having likely stamina for 10f or further would be a bonus.
Slightly more testing ground could have a say in this matter though. As previously mentioned, the 2017 renewal was run on good to soft ground.
The winner had his previous race at 10f and had a prior success at that distance.
The runner up had his previous race at 10f and had a prior success at that distance.
The 3rd had his previous race at 8f but had a prior success over 10f.
The 4th had never previously run over further than 8f.
The 5th had his previous race at 10f and had a prior success at that distance.
So on this occasion proven stamina seemed a big positive but one thing certainly worth noting is that the first four home that year in both the Cambridgeshire and the Silver version had all raced at a mile at least once that season so this isn’t a race for ten furlong specialists.
How Well Handicapped Do You Have To Be To Win This?
This is an important question to ask as plenty of these runners look pretty well handicapped. However if you generally need to have at least a stone in hand of your rating that will rule many of these out.
Last year’s winner, Lord North, is now rated 25lbs higher than when winning this. His stable mate, Wissahickon was rated 10lbs higher than his winning mark in this less than 6 months later.
2017 victor, Dolphin Vista, was rated a stone higher than his rating when winning this within 5 subsequent starts on the flat. Spark Plug, winner in 2016, went up 8lbs for his victory and never rated higher.
The winner in 2015, Third Time Lucky, wasn’t the most consistent but did subsequently rate 11lbs higher whilst Bronze Angel, who won this twice off marks of 95 and 99, also won handicaps later in his career off 104 and 105 with his rating going as high as 111.
Meanwhile Educate, the 2013 Cambridgeshire winner, went up 8lbs to a mark of 112 for his victory and although he never rated higher, he ran to that mark of 112 several times in the next year.
This goes to show that in most cases the winner was 8lb to 10lbs well in. If you can’t see your pick rating that much higher than his current rating then he’s probably running for place money at best.
And on the subject of the official ratings, it can also pay to see what sort of rating does well in this race. You need to be well enough handicapped to win of course but you also need to be classy enough. This year there is 26lbs between the top weight and the bottom weight so a nice spread of ratings.
In the last 10 years the winners have been rated between 107 and 87 so that’s not going to rule many out this year for win purposes (just the top 3 rated horses, but two of those are quite well fancied). In fact no horse rated higher than Wissahickon’s 107 has even placed in the past decade.
Eight of the last ten winners have been rated 95 or higher which would rule out the bottom thirteen horses as likely winners. Just thirteen of the last forty placed horses were rated lower than 95 too. Eighteen placed runners have been rated between 95 and 100 inclusive and only eight runners this year represent that band. Meanwhile only eight placed horses were rated 101 or higher and seven horses are rated above 100 this year. Despite that relatively poor record for those higher up in the weights, in eight of the last ten years at least one horse rated 101 or higher has made the first four.
Half of the last ten winners have been rated between just 95 and 99 and only six runners (less than a quarter of the runners) this year fit into those ratings.
Cambridgeshire Odds
I’m not a fan of stats such as “only one winning favourite in the past ten years” as a runner doesn’t have less of a chance to win just because they’ve been backed from second favouritism into favouritism, and horses certainly don't know their odds.
However there is some mileage in looking at bands of prices that tend to do well as it shows if the results tend to be reflected in the previous form book or not.
The fact that eight of the last ten winners were priced up at 14/1 or lower goes to show that there aren’t many great shocks in this race. Now a runner currently priced up at 25/1 could end up winning at 14/1 tomorrow so not looking at anything above 14s would be counter-productive but it’s definitely something to consider with more than half the field likely to start at a bigger price.
The 2020 Cambridgeshire Field
So for place purposes it’s difficult to rule runners out based on draw, running style, stamina or official rating. However those who have raced at a mile at least once this season and those who are rated 100 or lower should largely be favoured, as should those drawn higher rather than lower.
For win purposes, we are likely looking for a runner:
Likely to have at least 8lbs in hand of official rating
Has run at a mile this season
Preferably races in mid division
Preferably drawn middle to high
Starting price of 14/1 or less
And those rated between 95 and 99 should certainly be very much considered.
So let’s look at the main contenders:
Tempus
He's won both starts this year (at a mile) and seemed to have improved for his seasonal reappearance last time out. He’s been consistently strong at the finish over a mile, will handle the ground fine and is 3lbs well in under his penalty. Looks the proverbial ‘group horse in a handicap’ and appears to have a nice draw in 23.
If you were picking holes in his form you could say he hasn’t beaten anything this year (nine beaten runners in his last two races haven’t placed between them since) but it’s not his fault he hasn’t raced against better horses and his tactical versatility could be an asset in this.
Sinjaari
Won the John Smith’s Cup in good style on his seasonal debut and unraced since (withdrawn twice because of soft ground). The ground is unlikely to be completely ideal here and he doesn’t look likely to be well served by the drop in trip either (tried several times over further than 10f last season). Stall 6 probably a slight negative too and likely to be given plenty to do. The form of his win this season does look strong though.
Ilaraab
Likely to be the shortest priced runner from the classic generation, who have won three of the last five renewals of this. Another of those ‘group horses in a handicap’ having won four on the trot including a mile novice win. It’s difficult to gauge the strength of his form but he did give 7lbs and a length beating to Spirit Dancer a few starts back and that horse has gone close in a handicap off 83 since so you can’t really argue he’s badly handicapped here off 94. Impossible to rule out completely.
Derevo
He’s looked primed to win a decent handicap this season but things haven’t quite worked out for him. This drop in trip in a big field should suit but he hasn’t raced at a mile this season and the ground has probably gone ever so slightly against him. The draw in stall 11 perhaps isn’t brilliant too so he might have to wait a bit longer for his first win in over a year.
Bell Rock
He appears to have been saved for this since finishing 3rd in a good handicap at Glorious Goodwood. That was his first run over 10f and he appeared to stay fine but he also has good form over a mile this season, notably when 6th in the Royal Hunt Cup from a poor draw. This 9f trip might be absolutely ideal for him but he’s been well enough beaten twice from this mark and doesn’t appeal as one who necessarily has 8lbs or more in hand despite relatively low mileage still.
Montatham
He's been a revelation this season since gelded, winning four of his six starts and not finishing out of the first 2. He won a very strong handicap two starts ago off 104 but had his limitations slightly exposed last time out at listed level and now finds himself racing off 109. He would have been beaten in his last couple of handicap wins in another stride or two so the step up in distance is a slight concern, as is stall 2.
Sir Busker
A real credit to connections and a horse I have a soft spot for having followed him since he was rated 77 last year. No one would have thought this horse would be a leading contender in the Cambridgeshire off 111 but that’s a testament to how much he has improved this season. He’s still capable of rating higher than 111, especially with cut in the ground, and he’ll adore this big field. However his last to first tactics won’t be easy to pull off here and stall 3 isn’t ideal so he’s reluctantly passed over. I’d take him in a match bet against Montatham though!
Certain Lad
This horse seems to keep on improving and he was a slightly surprise winner of a Group 3 last time out. This is a monumental ask off a mark of 112 though and he’s another with a draw lower than ideal in 8.
Fifth Position
This horse still looks well handicapped on several pieces of form this season, including his mile run at Newcastle in June and his John Smith’s Cup effort in July. He’ll enjoy the little bit of dig in the ground but he’s looked like he needs to go up in trip rather than back in trip this season. He may well run creditably and can still rate a fair bit higher than 104 but perhaps something like the November Handicap will be more his cup of tea.
Al Rufaa
Gosden and Dettori have won this for the past two years but this looks like a bit of an afterthought for Al Rufaa who has been exclusively campaigned at 7f. It’s difficult to see him staying and he was below par on softer ground last time out so a win in this would be a slight shock.
Lucander
A really interesting contender and one who looks overpriced. Well drawn in 27 and representing the 3yos who do well in this, he’s open to improvement after just eight starts and he brings big field handicap form into this. He won with a bit in hand last time out over 1.5f further on soft ground but was competitive earlier in the season over a mile when 3rd to Strait Of Hormuz. That winner is now 13lbs higher, the runner up is 18lbs higher and the 4th is 17lbs higher. Lucander is only 9lbs higher than his 3rd over a mile and 4lbs higher than his recent win.
He’s likely to be held up in midfield which is fine and the only negative seems to be an inexplicably poor run at Newmarket’s July course this summer. His best form, and most his runs, have come on flatter tracks but that’s just a niggling worry more than anything.
One at a Bigger Price
Most of those at the bigger prices need to prove themselves in conditions or bounce back from poorer runs. One runner who seems to have been a little underestimated is John Berry’s Kryptos.
Before missing almost 3 years of racing he was beating the likes of Mountain Angel off almost level weights by 5 lengths. Mountain Angel went on to rate 113 yet Kryptos is still rated just 89. Since his return from injury his form has been a bit in and out, and certainly not to his pre-injury best, but there are signs he’s ready to strike. The most notable of those signs was two runs ago when his stamina was stretched at 10.5f, admittedly at Chester which isn’t the most stamina sapping of tracks. He was 3rd and the winner has since gone within a short head of winning again, the runner up has won a big handicap, the 4th has won since and the 5th has been an unlucky loser. He’s drawn in stall 4 which is probably a negative and this is probably too hot company but don’t be surprised to see him outrun his odds of 50/1 here and pop up at a big price before the season is out. One for the tracker at least.
Verdict
It would be no surprise if any of those near the head of the market were to triumph here, especially Tempus who appears to have untapped potential going up in trip (lots of stamina on the dam’s side). However he’s the favourite in a 29 runner race and still hasn’t seemingly beaten much in terms of well handicapped runners.
So at more than twice the price it is Lucander who appeals most. Not only does he bring a nice profile into the race and the scalps of some well handicapped rivals, he also seems to fit the bill of many previous winners perfectly. He’s almost certainly still got at least 8lbs improvement in him, he’s run well at a mile this season, he’s likely to race in mid division, he's drawn middle to high, he’s probably going to go off around 14/1 or shorter (currently priced up at 18/1 and 16/1 with most bookies) and he’s currently rated 98 which is just about the perfect sweet spot as far as ratings are concerned. Assuming he's fine at the track he should run very well.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/LordNorth_Cambridgeshire2019.jpg320830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-09-25 15:13:292020-09-25 15:13:29Stroke Of Luc Required In The 2020 Cambridgeshire Handicap
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