More LIVE ITV horse racing action this Saturday as the cameras head to both Haydock and Musselburgh to take in seven races across the two venues.
As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our verdicts!
HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)
2.05 – Betway Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 1m7f144y ITV4
Four previous runnings
Trainers Neil King, Donald McCain, Tom George and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the race before
4/4 – Winners returned between 8/1 and 11/1
3/4 – Winners carried 10-4 or less in weight
3/4 – Irish Bred
3/4 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
3/4 – Rated between 115-119
3/4 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
0/4 – No winning favourite
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 67% record with his hurdles at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 3 from 48 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King is just 1 from 25 with his hurdlers at the track
2.40 – Betway Challenger Staying Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m24y ITV4
Four previous runnings
Trainers Alan King (2), Lucy Wadham, and Tom George are the past winners of the race /
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Won between 0-2 times fences
4/4 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
3/4 – Finished 4th last time out
3/4 – Rated between 125-132
3/4 – Won over 3m (fences) before
3/4 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
3/4 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
0/4 – Winning favourites
Mahlermade won the race in 2019
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 43% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams has a 21% record with his chasers at the track
3.15 – Betway Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4
4/4 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
4/4 – Carried 11-4 or less in weight
3/4 – Finished in the top three last time out
3/4 – Had run at the track before
3/4 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
3/4 – Rated between 122-126
3/4 – Unplaced favourites
0/4 – Winning favourites
Trainers Jonjo O’Neill (2), Nick Williams and Stuart Edmunds have won this race before
Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King is just 1 from 25 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 3 from 48 with his hurdlers at the track
Just 3 previous runnings
Trainers David O’Meara, Kevin Ryan and David Barron have won the race before
Three Saints Bay won the race in 2019
All three winners returned 11/2 or 6/1
All three winners carried between 9-3 and 9-7
All three winners came from stalls 3 or 4
No winning favourite yet
Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
5/5 – Won between 1-2 times before
5/5 – Rated between 81-86 (inc)
5/5 – From stalls 2-6 (inc)
4/5 – Won over 7f or further
3/5 – Won this off a layoff (5+months)
3/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Trained by Richard Fahey
Trainers Mark Johnston, John Quinn and William Haggas have won the race before
9/9 – Won over 5f before
7/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Drawn 8 or higher
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/9 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
6/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/9 – Rated between 92 and 98
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Ran at the track before
4/9 – Drawn in stalls 15 (2) or 16 (2)
3/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Trained by Mick Appleby (won last 2)
2/9 – Ridden by Alistair Rawlinson
Caspian Prince won the race in 2018
4/5 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Had run at Musselburgh before
4/5 – Returned a double-figure price
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
3/5 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
1/5 – Winning favourite
Trainers Mark Johnston, Archie Watson, JP Shanahan, Brian Ellison and Jim Goldie have won the race before
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-03-02 23:00:162021-04-04 07:13:42Sat TV Trends: 3rd April 2021
With just a fortnight to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2021, a number of bookmakers are now offering the 'non runner no bet' (money back if your horse doesn't run) concession. This is great news for punters, especially when allied to one bookmaker's - bet365 - best odds guaranteed concession. In this article, I've found seven horses that can be backed for 'the wrong race at the right price': stars which are expected to line up elsewhere but which would likely shorten from currently available odds if doing a late switcheroo.
They're presented in race order, starting on Tuesday, Day 1...
"She's running in the Champion Hurdle", all my friends tell me. And they're probably right. But she's the reigning champ in this race and the drying ground will make the two mile Champion more of a speed test than this two and a half mile contest. She's the classiest mare in the entries for this race by at least seven pounds, and there's a chance that drying ground sees Roksana re-routed to the Stayers' Hurdle. There will still be Concertista to deal with, but Honeysuckle will be more 8/11 than 11/8 on the day if she runs here. If she doesn't, you'll get your cash back a fortnight hence.
Venetia Williams' wildly experienced novice, Royale Pagaille, looks to have stamina as his strong suit. I was so taken with his outright demolition of a solid Graded handicap field in the G2 Peter Marsh at Haydock that I backed him for the Gold Cup. He's rated in the Gold Cup ball park off that run, too, though I don't fully trust it, given his main market rival, Sam's Adventure, came down too far out to judge whether he'd have been an actual threat in the race; and the third favourite, Acey Milan, also exited at a fence.
It is also true that RP has been dishing up in deep ground and it remains to be seen how he handles quicker terrain. For all of those reservations, he has been ultra-impressive visually, and his stamina combined with fluent jumping makes him a natural for a staying test like this. There are other credible contenders in the field, not least Galvin, but if Royale Pagaille lines up here rather than his other entries, he'll take some beating. If not, no damage done, money back.
Slightly more speculative, this one, but with the same 'second choice race' angle in play. Ballyadam has hitherto raced exclusively at around two miles, but has been beaten the last twice at the trip. In his defence, those defeats were in Grade 1 company against tip top opposition, and he got closest to Supreme favourite Appreciate It in the Chanelle Pharma last time. Closest, yes, but there is no real reason to believe he ought to reverse form with that one; so why not take on a different group of horses over a slightly longer trip?
Breeding - by Fame And Glory out of a Bob Back mare - suggests he'll stay the Ballymore range without a care, and in a race that is 3/1 the field, he has Grade 1 credentials. 14/1 looks a very playable each way proposition, with the NRNB proviso.
Shady Operator - Glenfarclas Chase - 10/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 10/1 Fred (NRNB)
Shady Operator could be an apt winner for players of this slightly snide angle. The horse is banks king Enda Bolger's latest McManus project, and was revitalised by a first spin over ditches, wedges and all in the PP Hogan Memorial Chase - a key prep for this - last time. There he won in a field of 17 which contained plenty of dead wood; so, too, will Day 2's Cross Country field. He was effective rather than eye-catching in winning but that was his first cross-country effort in public. As an eight-year-old he's oodles of upside in this sphere and is clearly with the right man.
He is not a guaranteed runner, hence the insurance caveat of NRNB, but this race is looking less and less clear cut by the day. Easysland was expected to bolt up before flopping at the November meeting; he was then expected to race in France as a preparation but skipped that, too, so comes in off that solitary, below par, effort. He could easily bounce back but is not the 'gimme' he looked going into the November meeting.
What of Tiger Roll? Who knows? But he looks a shadow of his past self even allowing that a spring campaign will have always been the plan. Then come the French pair of Ajas and Uniketat: the former is trained, like Easysland, by David Cottin and is well fancied by his yard; the latter is a banks specialist who won a very good race at Pau last time, electric jumping a feature of his victory. Uniketat may apparently be done for the season, so one less to feature.
It's hard to get excited by the rest which makes Shady Operator a compelling each way proposition at 10/1 with the BOG and NRNB concessions aforethought.
He's running against Shishkin in the Arkle! Yes, that's very likely the case; but he is still entered here and, given current uncertainty about what will happen with horses trained heretofore by Gordon Elliott - which therefore extends to strong Marsh favourite, Envoi Allen - this could end up a desirable slot for the Arkle second choice.
Energumene would not necessarily be a bigger price than 2/1 if both he and Envoi Allen line up, but he will certainly be a shorter price if he does and the current ante post favourite does not. The balance of probabilities are that this will be a money back job, but he'll look great value if those things do come to pass: that's the whole point of this article!
Dan Skelton trains this mare and she's looked very good either side of a two length third to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill in the Grade 2 Long Walk Hurdle in December. That run leaves her very little to find with the pair who beat her, especially as she was given a lot to do that day; and, if the ground dries as looks likely, connections may opt to go for the stronger test of stamina this represents rather than the half mile shorter Mares' Hurdle (which could look as deep a race as this in any case).
Her price represents a very solid each way bet in an open section and, as you know by now, if she doesn't run it's money back.
Put The Kettle On - Mares' Chase - 5/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 11/2 PP (NRNB)
Last year's Arkle winner has excellent Cheltenham form, being three from three at the track including that Festival score. Whether she has the stamina for this is uncertain - her best form is at two miles and she was beaten in a Grade 3 over this trip in late 2019; but there's little question it's an easier slot than the Champion Chase in which she is more obviously scheduled to participate.
Put The Kettle On doesn't need to lead, which is just as well in a field that could have plenty of early goers, but her ability to lie handy and her battling qualities, as well as no little class, mean she'd be very competitive if she ran here rather than in the Queen Mother. At an each way price, she is the final leg of this magnificently sneaky seven.
**
It can be no bigger than 4/1 that none of the above take up these engagements, in which case you've lent your money to bet365 (other books are available) for a fortnight or so. But considering any or all of this septet, perhaps in multiple perms, feels like a wise guy play with plenty of upside and limited downside. Given that four or more non-runners must be odds-on, I've permed them in each-way five-, six- and seven-folds. Declarations day will be interesting!
The Eider Chase at Newcastle is probably Saturday’s big betting race but there is also some nice live racing from Lingfield on Saturday including the Winter Derby and the Hever Sprint. We are sure to find some course biases in the latter (2.05 Lingfield) and they may well end up setting us up for a decent bet.
Draw
Around a sharp 5f there isn’t a lot of time to recover a poor position so the draw data here should be enlightening.
There isn’t a huge difference in win percentage or place percentages across the board, most likely because of the small field size. Even for a small field size, it’s slightly surprising to see the highest win percentage go to the highest draws. The flip side of that is the place percentage, which has twice as much data, sees high draws come off worst. It’s the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) that gives us the most data though and a low draw PRB of 0.52, middle draw PRB of 0.51 and high draw PRB of 0.47 suggests a low to middle draw is still preferable, although only slightly.
Over a few different trips at Lingfield stall 1 performs poorly but in this field size over this trip stall 1 actually has the best PRB (0.55) and highest win percentage (24.07%). Stalls 5 and 6 are the worst performers according to PRB and it looks as though you ideally want to be in the lowest four stalls.
Pace
The minimum distance tends to be one where we see the strongest pace bias at many courses and Lingfield is no different.
There looks to be a strong edge towards front runners over this course and distance in similar field sizes. Front runners have been ridiculously profitable to follow with a win PL of 250.05! The IV for front runners is 2.06, almost twice as large as that of the next best run style and almost four times as big as the IV for hold up runners.
The win percentage, place percentage, win PL, each way PL and IV all steadily fall the further back in the field you look at which strongly points to an extensive bias here. It’s also worth noting that 142 winners from the races in the data set have been won by front runners of prominent racers whilst just 67 winners have been placed in mid division or held up early. There were slightly more runners from the latter group so you can certainly expect most winners to be near the pace here.
Pace and Draw Combination
The pace and draw combination heat map can sometimes put a different spin on any potential draw or pace bias or can show any micro advantages there could be over course and distance.
There is some really interesting data in this heat map. The draw data tells us that a high draw isn’t much of a disadvantage, if any. However we can now see that high drawn front runners perform well, better than any other draw/pace combination in fact. The consequence of that is that high drawn prominent racers, mid division runners or hold up performers all perform worse on average compared to their lower drawn counterparts.
We also see that the worst performance at all comes from low drawn hold up horses. The PRB is almost half of what it is for low drawn front runners. This goes to show that not all low drawn horses are created equal here.
It’s pretty clear to see you either want to be a front runner from any draw or a low to middle drawn prominent racer or mid division runner.
Hever Sprint Pace Map
Let’s take a look at the pace map for this contest to see the likely pace setup:
Ornate is the main pace angle here but it’s possible Lord Riddiford could contest that pace. What stands out here is that all the pace is in the lowest two stalls. Ornate is normally pretty quick from the gates so he may be able to get across Lord Riddiford but it seems likely Lord Riddiford won’t make life easy for Ornate on the front end.
We’ve established that anyother kind of ride than front running is a big disadvantage for high drawn horses so there certainly have to be some question marks over Royal Birth and Rocket Action, and also Blue De Vega to a certain extent. Rocket Action is fairly well fancied here and his run style and draw combination could be a problem.
Belle Anglaise has plenty to find on form and her run style isn’t going to be much help here despite a decent draw whilst hot favourite Moss Gill is quite tactically versatile so P J McDonald would be sensible to track the pace from an okay draw in stall 4.
The Runners
Only seven runners to go through, let’s look at them in market order.
Moss Gill
It's no great surprise to see Moss Gill hovering around even money for this contest. He’s got 7lbs or more in hand of the rest of the field, he’s never been out of the first two in three runs on artificial surfaces and he’s already a listed winner. He also won off a similar break this time last year, albeit in a lower grade.
The bad news is he’s never run on polytrack and he’s been held up on two of his last three starts. If similar tactics were to be employed here he could end up forfeiting the 7lb+ advantage he has over this field based on official ratings. If you wanted to be even pickier you could ignore his runs at York, which seems to be his favourite track (form figures of 12233 there). He’s been well enough beaten at other venues at listed level twice and Group 3 level once which is a slight concern.
His best run to date was a 3rd in the Nunthorpe behind Battaash last year and if able to replicate that form he’d be almost impossible to beat here against this field.
Rocket Action
Rocket Action is returning from a similar kind of break as the favourite and he too has a very good all weather record. He’s one of just three runners in this who bring a triple figure official rating into the race and he ran a solid 4th in a competitive Group 3 at Dundalk last time out.
He’s another who hasn’t yet run at Lingfield though. His run style would be a big concern from any draw and it’s a particular concern from the widest stall. He may well end up finding this test too sharp and he would have made far more appeal at Wolverhampton where he has won all three of his starts.
Blue De Vega
Blue De Vega is the other runner to be rated 100 or over in this and he’s arguably the stable second string, despite being rated 1lb higher than Rocket Action. He’s another who hasn’t been seen since the tail end of the flat turf season but he has at least run well after a break before.
He’s a past Group 3 winner and has been rated 110 previously but he is 8 now and perhaps a bit past his prime. He has won on artificial surfaces before but he’s yet another to have never run here and he certainly doesn’t look an all weather specialist like Rocket Action. He generally raced prominently last season so might not be badly placed but he would need to improve on last season’s form to win this.
Lord Riddiford
This speedy prominent racer/front runner has now hit a career high rating signalling the fact that he’s been as good as ever this winter. He has a better win ratio on sand compared to turf and he’s won three times on Chelmsford’s polytrack course but he’s never run here. It’s a course that should suit his style and as a winner at courses like Goodwood and Windsor he’s no stranger to a speedy or sharp 5f.
In fact if you use the ‘General Config’ filter on his form you can see he does very well on courses with a similar configuration to Lingfield.
He's unlikely to beat Ornate to the lead in this but he is comfortable just tracking the pace, tactics employed when he won at Wolverhampton in November. He’ll be better placed than most here, is in the form of his life and only has 4lbs to find with the second highest rated runner. He’s also fit having run all winter and he could be the main threat to Moss Gill.
Ornate
The likely front runner in this is the shortest priced runner who has actually run here at Lingfield. He hasn’t won in three runs here but he did get within a short head of victory over course and distance in December off a rating of 95. He ran less well here last month though and was also below par when sent off favourite at Southwell last time out, a course at which he is a three time winner.
He's closely matched with Royal Birth on both his previous two runs here but doesn’t seem good enough right now or in good enough form to pose a real threat. At best he’s a back to lay option but if Lord Riddiford pesters him on the front end he probably wouldn’t even appeal even for trading purposes.
Royal Birth
The only course winner in the field and the winner of this race all the way back in 2017. The 10yo isn’t quite at that level anymore but he’s still a relatively consistent performer having chalked up two more wins here at the turn of the year, taking his Lingfield tally up to five wins from thirteen at this trip.
He was put in his place at this level recently but that was over 6f, a distance he has never excelled over. Another point to note is the horse’s record for Richard Kingscote.
The horse has finished 1st once and 2nd twice from four 5f runs under this pilot. He needs to improve on his recent form by several pounds to win this but his form in this race does read 1522 over the past four years and he’s entitled to outrun his odds. He’s more than capable of finishing 3rd in this but with only 7 runners he still doesn’t appeal as an each way option.
Belle Anglaise
The youngest runner in the field and the only female meaning she gets a useful 5lbs from the others. She’s rated 90 so does have to improve but not by as much as the ratings might suggest. Is she capable of running beyond 90 though?
She hasn’t run in this country since her 2yo campaign where she was last seen being well beaten in the Oh So Sharp Stakes over 7f. She’s since been running in Germany but she failed to get her head in front as a 3yo. Her only win came on her only start on an all weather surface (at Chelmsford) so the return to polytrack is definitely an interesting angle but this will be her first run at the minimum distance so in all probability she’ll be seen to best effect in the coming months over a little further on this kind of surface.
The Verdict
Moss Gill looks the most likely winner of this race but doesn’t appeal in the slightest as a single at the price given there are some doubts, notably fitness and record away from York.
Lord Riddiford is the solid but unspectacular choice from the plum draw. He’d be a pretty decent each way bet with an extra runner in here and three places on offer but looks less interesting with just two places on offer. Therefore the best option may be a small single on Lord Riddiford at a general 7/1 but a slightly largely straight forecast on Moss Gill to win and Lord Riddiford to finish runner up. That bet pays around 9/1 with bet365 at the time of writing.
A braver punter might be willing to add Royal Birth to make up a trifecta but that’s not a bet that will appeal to many for decent stakes, especially with Royal Birth faring slightly unluckily with the draw.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/LetsGoLucky_HKDragon.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-02-26 16:20:112021-02-26 16:33:19Hever Sprint Preview: Consistent Runner Could Be Lord Of The Lings
This weekend the ITV cameras head to Kempton, with their newly-sponsored Close Brothers Handicap Chase their feature contest, while they are also at Lingfield for the Winter Derby and the Newcastle for their Eider Chase.
As always, we've got the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races - use these to help find the best profiles based on past winners.
14/16 – French (8) of Irish (6) bred
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 11)
9/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites
16/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 - Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
13/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/17– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – French bred
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 4 runnings)
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
14/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
13/15 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
12/15 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – French bred
4/15 – Trained by Alan King
4/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
15/18 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
15/18 – Rated 139 or higher
13/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/18 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
12/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/18 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/18 – Rated between 139 and 150
10/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Aged 8 years-old
5/18 – French bred
4/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/18 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Tom George
2/18 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/18 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Mister Malarky (9/1) won the race in 2020
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park
Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
3.15 – Vertem Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV4
16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
Crosspark (12/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1
12/14 – Rated 96+
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had raced at Lingfield before
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/14 – Placed favs
8/14 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/14 – US bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Mare winners
3/14 – Trained by David Barron
0/14 – Winners from stall 1
Hareem Queen won the race in 2020
Royal Birth won the race in 2017
16/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
14/18 – Had run at Lingfield previously
14/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
14/18 – Had raced at either Lingfield (10) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/18 – Winning distance – less than a length
12/18 – Placed in their last race
12/18 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the market
12/18 – Won at Lingfield previously
12/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/18 – Won their last race
9/18 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (last 2 runnings)
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 18 renewals is 11/2
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-02-26 12:57:192021-02-25 14:04:16Sat TV Trends: 27th Feb 2021
Pretty much the last spectator-attended action of last year was the Cheltenham Festival and, regardless of the 20/20 hindsight about whether or not it should have had the green light for crowds, this year's event will be contested behind closed doors. That it will be contested at all, and that the entirety of the preceding seasonal narrative has played out - weather notwithstanding - is a cause for celebration during these times where not a great deal has been worthy of such emotional uplift.
With just 21 days until tapes rise for the opening skirmishes of the 2021 renewal of #CheltFest (I can hear the grinding of traditionalists' teeth as I pen that incendiary soshul shorthand!), time is nigh to fix mental bayonets and consider, in the round, what may transpire three weeks hence.
In this piece, we'll look at the shorties: those favourites whose current top quote is 5/4 or tighter. Using the age old hackney of 'banker or blowout', and mindful that for geegeez readers (and value players everywhere) the very notion of a banker is anathema, I'll offer a view as to which side of the back/lay divide I'd currently like to pitch my punting tent.
A recent history of short priced favourites at the Cheltenham Festival
First up, a short history lesson. The main lesson of history is "don't believe the hype", a message that resonates far beyond Festival jollies but which was poignantly reprised twelve months ago when, of the six favourites sent off at 5/4 or shorter, five were beaten. Ouch.
If that was a storm in the 2020 teacup, how does a more extensive tract of past performance influence our appetite for piling in at the sharp end?
As can be seen from the table and summary row above, there have been good times and bad times since 2009, with the management summary being that this is one of the less bludgeoning methods of wagering self-harm. But, of course, not all shorties are made equal; so is there anything to be gleaned from dividing what is already a very small dataset still further?
Despite the answer to that question almost certainly being 'no', for the record here are a couple of logical splits:
A lot of data manipulation and a very short read later we can now say the answer is certainly 'no'; which is unsurprising given the maturity of, and liquidity in, these markets. Nevertheless, when the media cries "certainty" and the market posits 4/6, punters are well served to beware.
The full list of qualifying runners is below, and may bring back painful memories for some, yours true included!
2021 Cheltenham Festival Shorties: Banker or Blowout
There is a quintet of ante-post shorties for this year's renewal of the Fez (yet more trads reaching for 'off' switch!) and they shape up price wise like this:
Time to consider each horse's respective merits...
Arkle Challenge Trophy: Shishkin
Form this season
Unbeaten in three facile wins in novice chases, most recently in a brace of Grade 2's, with no horse yet landing a glove on him. In spite of the small fields - he beat a trio of rivals in each - the form is solid and the times have been good. His fencing style is economical and comfortable: he has barely put a foot wrong thus far.
Shishkin is now unbeaten in seven completed starts, having fallen on his hurdling debut.
Cheltenham / Festival Form
Sent off 6/1 joint-third favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last year, he was hampered by a faller as the race was hotting up, but overcame that impediment to hold the late charge of Champion Hurdle fancy, Abacadabras. That was his only race at Cheltenham.
Obvious dangers
For a while this looked a matter of 'how far' assuming good health and a clear round, but the emergence of Energumene - an energumence? - as comfortably the best of the Irish has livened up the pre-race debate immeasurably.
On form, Willie Mullins' charge is a serious threat. But he does have a lot more questions to answer: how will he handle Cheltenham? Does he need to lead and, if so, how will he handle Allmankind? If he doesn't need to lead, he has yet to prove his effectiveness from further back. And how will he handle drier ground if indeed it pans out that way?
None of these are of concern to Shishkin, who looks sure to get his favoured lead - either from Allmankind, or that one and Energumene - and who will have every chance having dealt with all underfoot terrain, longer trips, and the Cheltenham contours already.
If Energumene and Allmankind lock horns on the speed, they may both pay for those exertions in the manner that Saint Calvados and Petit Mouchoir did in the 2018 renewal of this race, setting things up for a 14-length rout for Footpad. Shishkin is undeniably more of a horse than Footpad, and a tear up on the front end could see him record the largest winning distance of the meeting.
But if Energumene is ridden more conservatively, there are two possible dangers. The more obvious is that, in a fair fight, the Irish raider is simply better than the domestic challenger; the less obvious is that, by marking each other, the top two grant Allmankind - a very good horse in his own right - an easy and unassailable lead.
The other fly in the Shishkin ointment is the form of the Nicky Henderson yard, on the face of it at least: a single winner since 10th February, from 28 runners, is not the sort of record a Champion Trainer needs going into the biggest gig of the year. But, of course, we're not yet at the eve of Cheltenham and, in any case, that headline figure masks what have been largely acceptable (if not altogether pleasing) efforts from his Seven Barrows squad.
A place strike rate of 36% is more compelling, and a majority of runners have performed at least close to market expectation. Notably, the big guns - Chantry House, Champ - have run very well. Still, better will have been expected overall and better will be needed if Shishkin's price is not to flirt with odds-against between now and mid-March.
Verdict
Shishkin looks a superb athlete and a very fast horse. His trainer is having a wobble just now but knows better than anyone - even Willie M - how to campaign a precocious two-mile chaser. Having ticked the race conditions boxes, and with a pace setup almost certain to play to his A game, he looks a 'banker' (relatively speaking).
*
Mares' Hurdle: Concertista
Form this season
Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins' better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term. She beat the same mare, Minella Melody, by nearly two lengths in a Grade 2 in November and then by more than six lengths in a Grade 3 at the turn of the year.
The hallmark of those runs, and indeed her run style generally, is being held together off the pace before cruising through to prevail comfortably. In so doing it is hard to peg the level of her form exactly, always leaving the impression there is more in the tank.
Cheltenham / Festival Form
Presented off a layoff of eighteen months prior to the 2019 Mares' Novices Hurdle, Concertista saw off all bar Eglantine Du Seuil as a 66/1 chance that day. She had twenty rivals behind her and only a short head to the one in front. That singular race in the 2018/19 season meant she retained her novice status the following campaign and, lining up in the same race last March, she outclassed a similar 22-strong field by an emphatic dozen lengths.
This will be her third visit to the Festival and she offers very solid credentials on that score.
Obvious dangers
It very much depends who lines up on the day. If the ground dries out, it might be that connections of Honeysuckle decide to run over this two-and-a-half mile trip rather than the extended two of the Champion Hurdle. That would change the complexion markedly.
Likewise, though to a lesser degree, if Roksana stepped this way rather than to the Stayers' Hurdle, she would present a fierce challenge.
But there is very little depth to this field beyond the aforementioned three: they bet 9/1 Dame De Compagnie (who has been chasing, has four entries, and is far from a certain runner in this), 14/1 Verdana Blue (more likely for the County Hurdle, I think), and 20/1 bar (including Elimay, who more likely goes to the Mares' Chase).
Verdict
If Honeysuckle goes to the Champion Hurdle and if Roksana goes to the Stayers' Hurdle, Concertista could be the shortest priced favourite at the meeting. If Honeysuckle comes here, she may be 4/7 or so.
This is a ground dependant conundrum: drying ground would increase the chance of Honeysuckle running here, but decrease the chance of Roksana doing likewise. Concertista is expected to run here regardless (though she is still entered in both the Champion Hurdle and the Mares' Chase).
The way to play this, if you're so inclined, is to back Concertista at 6/5 and Honeysuckle at 5/4, both non-runner no bet. Most likely, you'll have 6/5 about an odds-on shot and money back on the other; second most likely is that you'll have 5/4 about a 4/7 shot and a poor value back up ticket. That may not sound exciting right now but it is odds on to look value on the day.
*
Brown Advisory (ex RSA): Monkfish
Form this season
Another Willie Mullins inmate, Monkfish has been imperious this season in brushing aside talented opposition with relish. Monkfish with relish: tasty!
Lousy puns aside, he won his beginners' chase in a canter before being merely pushed out to record a pair of Grade 1 successes in recognised trials, by three lengths and then eleven lengths from the talented Latest Exhibition. He is by some margin the pick of the Irish challengers.
Cheltenham / Festival Form
Not only is Monkfish unbeaten in three chase starts this term, he is also the reigning Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle champ, earning a hard-fought verdict over... you guessed it, Latest Exhibition. That was his only visit to Cheltenham so he is unbeaten in one both at the track and at the Festival.
Obvious dangers
It is quite hard to find 'obvious' dangers to Monkfish. He has blitzed the best of the Irish this season, and he did the same to the best of the British and Irish here last season over hurdles.
Of course, he's a novice and the fences have to be jumped, so that's a possible issue.
In terms of potential rivals, Royale Pagaille has looked a mud machine this winter, but that one has numerous other possible engagements, principally the Gold Cup itself. Moreover, the two horses are in the same Ricci ownership and will surely attempt to divide and conquer.
The only other possible issue is ground: good to something would present a challenge met only once previously, when Monkfish was beaten into second on debut in a 2m2f bumper at the Punchestown Festival in May 2019.
Verdict
It's double digits bar Fishcake - as Nicky Henderson once flippantly (and very amusingly, imho) labelled the jolly - and Royale Pagaille; and, with options over longer and shorter for shying rivals, this could cut up dramatically. Monkfish looks very strong in this division.
*
Champion Chase: Chacun Pour Soi
Form this season
Three runs, three wins, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 (twice) company, beating the right horses with nonchalance. He travels like a dream, jumps very well and, if he faces the starter at Cheltenham, will have managed more runs this season than in the previous two combined.
His form this campaign is well clear of any other two mile chaser on either side of the Irish Sea.
Cheltenham / Festival Form
It was all going so well, but then... Chacun Pour Soi was pulled out at the eleventh hour last year and, as such, has yet to race outside of Ireland. That leaves question marks not just over the track but also about travelling generally: he did come over on the boat last year but was withdrawn with a foot abscess.
Whilst it may very much be a case of abscess making the heart grow fonder (sigh), it also nods to this fella's hitherto fragility. Against that we do have a trio of scores, and an absence of scares, so far this term. But we have still to conjecture about his ability to handle the idiosyncrasies of Cleeve Hill.
Obvious dangers
He himself is the obvious danger. Will he stay in one piece? Will he handle the travel? Will he handle the track?
Of the other horses in the race, each has eroded his or her case at some point: Arkle winner Put The Kettle On was bashed by Chacun, albeit after what was a very hard race at Cheltenham first up this season, and she may bounce back training up to the race; Altior is patently not the horse he was; Politologue has a rock solid Champion Chase profile but not against the calibre of CPS; and Defi Du Seuil is a binary chap, more zeros than ones in recent times.
The leftfield option is First Flow, who was exhilarating at Ascot last time. He'd need supplementing, very likely, but he'd also need to improve another eight pounds on current ratings - less likely.
Verdict
Chacun Pour Soi has to contend with himself. His form is in another postcode to his rivals in a market still trying to get him beaten with the wonderful but past his best Altior and a sizeable group of second division chasers. A horse like Fakir D'Oudairies, who is 20/1 NRNB in a place because he's more likely to fly Ryanair, might be a feasible hail mary in a race loaded with if's and but's.
Those imponderables extend to the favourite which makes him unplayable outright at the prices for all that he is the outstanding logical choice. [I did flag him in a derivative market at more appealing odds, as I don't really seeing him finishing second or third. He will win, or something will have happened between now and the finish line, is my wagering opinion.]
*
Marsh: Envoi Allen
Form this season
Three runs, three wins this campaign have meant Envoi Allen is now eleven from eleven lifetime under Rules (plus one point to point), all of them as favourite and only once at odds-against (the 2019 Cheltenham Champion Bumper). The middle leg of his 2020/21 hat-trick was a comfortable verdict in the Grade 1 Drinmore, and it was little more than a schooling round against Grade 3 rivals last time. I wasn't as impressed as some with that most recent effort for all that he still bolted up.
Cheltenham / Festival Form
Two tries at the track, both at the Festival, have yielded two victories; the Bumper score was by a narrow margin, his Ballymore victory more unequivocal. He beat 13 rivals the first day and eleven the second and, well, he just keeps winning.
Obvious dangers
This looks another case of getting to the start line. Unlike CPS, EA has been slated to start twice and has started - and finished first - twice. He's had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.
Still, those fences need to be jumped, and he has to arrive pristine at Prestbury. It is hard to nominate dangers thereafter.
Verdict
The Brown Advisory would have meant a likely clash with Monkfish, the Arkle a ding dong with Shiskin, Energumene and Allmankind. The Marsh feels a bit like the coward's route for a horse boasting his CV. More generously, it is the best opportunity to extend the winning sequence.
You can bet double figures any other horse likely to run in this race - single digit quotes about Energumene and Monkfish don't even appeal NRNB especially - and there has to be some each way value, though I've yet to go through the fine detail to find it.
What is clear is that, on form, Envoi Allen is different kit.
**
Summary
Last year, five of the six horses sent off at 5/4 or shorter were beaten. This year, we look set to have at least five runners priced in that same bracket. Mishaps aside, it is hard (for me, at least) to make credible cases to oppose any of the quintet.
But mishaps do happen: in 2020, Paisley Park had a palpitation, Patrick Mullins was carelessly ejected from Carefully Selected (very harsh on the jockey, apols, poetic license for a play on words), Tiger was Roll'ed over by a heretofore unconsidered French assailant, Defi did the Defi thing, and 'mon dieu' Benie was beaten by Honey.
Any horse could come down or have a heart murmur in the heat of combat; Shishkin could get beaten by Energumene; a previously unsighted dark horse could emerge in one of the novice chases (though that feels unlikely).
In short, stuff could - and at some point probably will - happen. But I'd be hard pushed to bet against any of this quintet in the win slot if they trotted round at the start. That's my view, uncontroversial as it is. What about you? Which horse(s) would you hang your hat on? And where are you looking to get a hotpot beaten? Leave a comment and let us know.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ChacunPourSoi_LeopardstownG1_December2020.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-02-22 15:51:042021-02-22 15:51:04Cheltenham Festival 2021: Favourites – Bankers or Blowouts?
On Saturday we have Haydock’s Grand National Trial Handicap Chase to look forward, a race in which Neptune Collonges finished runner up in 2012 before landing the big one just six weeks later.
The off time is 2.40pm for this contest and whether it throws up another Grand National winner or not it should be a great race and a real test of stamina.
As usual I’ll be going through this race using a range of tools and data that are available with a Geegeez Gold subscription.
Pace is one of the most crucial (and overlooked) factors in racing. Using the Pace Analyser we can see any potential pace bias over staying trips at Haydock.
In this kind of field size there is an edge towards horses that race closer to the pace.
The most common racing style for a winner is prominent and it’s interesting to compare the win percentages of 18% and 14.29% for front runners and prominent racers respectively to those provided by mid division (5.06%) and held up (7.75%).
Place percentages follow a similar trajectory which adds to the impression that there is a fairly strong pace advantage here and both front runners and prominent racers have strong IV figures 1.71 and 1.36 respectively.
We might gain further insight from looking at races only run on soft or heavy ground given the current going at Haydock is soft, heavy in places.
It’s a similar story again with prominent racers providing the most wins but with front runners having the best win percentage. Prominent racers seem to enjoy almost exactly the same advantage they do in better conditions but it is notable that front runners seem to perform better in the more testing conditions.
The fact that when you only look at soft or heavy ground races front runners perform even better and hold up runners perform worse suggests that the pace bias might be exaggerated in softer ground.
The above information is best used in conjunction with the pace data for each individual race. Each runner is assigned a ‘pace score’ every time they run based on what early position they raced in and this data is used to create an interactive pace map.
It looks highly likely that The Two Amigos is going to get an easy, uncontested lead in this race with no other real pace options in the race. Achille tends to race fairly prominently and has led in the past but he was held up last time so looks likely to be handy at best.
If this race does end up suiting those up with the pace then Sojourn and Potters Legend could be the most inconvenienced by the pace setup.
Instant Expert
Instant Expert can give us a snapshot of each runner’s suitability to the important race conditions here. First let’s look at the place data.
Plenty of green on offer and very little red suggesting the majority of these are well proven in conditions. It’s worth noting that class data would include non handicap runs too which makes it a bit less relevant in the context of this race.
Sojourn and Notachance clearly go very well in this kind of ground whilst four runners come into this with a 100% place record at the course (Perfect Candidate and Lord Du Mesnil have both placed in all three runs here).
One of the more worrying red flags here is that Potters Legend has failed to place in two runs over this kind of distance. On closer inspection he has run well enough over a furlong shorter though.
Now let’s narrow things down for win purposes.
Another worry for Potters Legend, he’s just one from fourteen in these ground conditions. The Two Amigos and Achilles also have questionable win records on testing ground. Lord Du Mesnil and Perfect Candidate both score well across the board (disregarding race class) and that pair both have won two out of three here so the course clearly holds no fears for them. Based on Instant Expert alone they both seem decent each way bets.
The Runners
Let’s take a look at each runner in odds order.
Notachance
A very exciting prospect. He’s finished 1st or 2nd in five of his six chase starts and he’s won his last two, including the Warwick Classic Handicap Chase over a furlong further last month. He tracked the pace at Warwick last time out and a repeat of those tactics should give him an advantage here.
He’s up 7lbs for that latest effort but he’s completely unexposed at this sort of distance so it’s not unfeasible that he’ll have improved that much since his last run. There is very little in the formbook to suggest he won’t run very well once again in this race ahead of a possible tilt at the Scottish Grand National.
The Two Amigos
A consistent front runner who has hit the frame in all four starts since finishing 4th in this last year. He's 2lbs higher this time around but should get the uncontested lead he didn’t get last year and that should see him improve. Finishing 2nd to Secret Reprieve in the Welsh National last time out was certainly a decent trial for this and suggests he is as good as ever.
He hasn’t won for over two years now though which is a major concern and although he’s entitled to give his running once again, he does look vulnerable for win purposes, especially at the current odds.
His jockey, James Bowen, has been in great form in the past 30 days, generating an IV (Impact Value) of 2.53.
Enqarde
Been in very good form since joining Dr Richard Newland, winning twice, finishing a neck runner up and unseating his rider on his other start. With only one completed chase start on these shores he’s potentially well ahead of his mark considering the style in which he won (and he beat two last time out winners). He also jumped left when winning at Ascot so this course should suit better.
He’s the shortest priced contender who is yet to prove his stamina but that does also mean he potentially has more secrets from the handicapper than much of the rest of the field.
The Profiler is great for telling us the likelihood of a horse staying based on sire stats and although this could be the limit of his stamina, his sire’s offspring do have a good record over this distance with a 44.44% place strike rate. This suggests there is a good chance he stays and if he does he should go very well. He should also race prominently which will suit.
Sojourn
Not seen since finishing 2nd last time out here before Christmas having previously won a hot handicap at Carlisle.
The runner up and 3rd both won next time out and the 4th was runner up on his next start so to beat those runners by 15 lengths is quite impressive.
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has previously stated that the horse is probably best fresh so the recent break should have done him so good. In fact Honeyball has an IV of 3.52 with handicap runners returning from a break of 60+ days so that’s another bonus.
He’s got very few miles on the clock and does have to prove his stamina over an extra couple of furlongs but it should be no issue. He’s tactically versatile and another very strong contender.
Lord Du Mesnil
A possible good each way place according to Instant Expert with some strong stats for the most important criteria. He has course form figures of 112 and that includes two course and distance efforts. He’s only 2lbs above his mark when 2nd in this last year.
He hasn’t been in quite the same form this season, having not run brilliantly in either run. This and/or the Grand National have probably been the aim all season so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he steps forward from that form but he does come with risks attached given those two runs so isn’t quite the each way play he might have looked.
Achille
Runner up behind Notachance on his latest start, which came off the back of a 427 day break. Given he could come on for that run and is 3lbs better off with the winner for a half length defeat he’d have a fair chance of reversing form and looks a possible value play at the odds given his form line with the favourite.
He’s clearly not been easy to train but he’s been consistent on the track when getting there in one piece so his problems shouldn’t be too off putting. Reverting to slightly more aggressive tactics than last time out should suit and he’s very much respected.
Potter Legend
Potters Legend looked like he may be unsuited by the way the race will be run in the pace map and there were also some question marks when looking at Instant Expert, namely the going. He has won three times in his career on soft but he hasn’t won in six runs on heavy so the heavy in places is a concern. He’s a previous course winner but he doesn’t look amazingly handicapped and is yet to fully convince at the more extreme trips so there are enough negatives to go against him.
Ramses De Teillee
Beat reliable yardstick Yala Enki in November but has struggled twice in similar contests to this on his last two runs. He’s a previous course winner in a small field so perhaps the return to this venue will spark a return to form.
It's worth noting that trainer David Pipe is in excellent form at the moment, notably producing an A/E of 2.57 in the past 14 days. It’s possible that helps him return to form too but on the whole he remains a risky proposition.
Perfect Candidate
Perfect Candidate also looked a fair each way shout according to Instant Expert but he’s the complete outsider in the field. He’s gone up 8lbs for winning a course and distance handicap by a procession in which not many handled the conditions. He’s never finished worse than 2nd in three course and distance runs and the only real negative is this is a very exposed 14yo against some well handicapped rivals. If the ground was to deteriorate further he’d look a very interesting each way option but he’s going to need at least a couple of these progressive rivals to fail to give their running to win this.
Verdict
If the going was predominantly heavy on Saturday then Perfect Candidate would be the value each way call.
Notachance, Enqarde and Sojourn are the most interesting trio longer term. Notachance is really solid and looks to have a really good chance, Enqarde has a bit more risk attached but still has plenty of upside (potentially even more than Notachance) and Sojourn still looks well handicapped but was beaten last time out and does still have to prove he stays this extra couple of furlongs.
The value against the favourite though is surely Achille at 9/1. With that last run under his belt and a change to more positive tactics than were used last time he could potentially improve past Notachance, in the short term at least.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/wellrefreshed.jpg220360samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-02-19 16:01:202021-02-19 16:12:09Haydock Grand National Trial Preview: Achille Has Claims For Form Reversal With Favourite
Another jam-packed Saturday of racing for the ITV horse racing team as they head to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton to take in seven races across the three venues.
So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!
18/18 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
16/18 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
15/18 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
14/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Won last time out
11/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
8/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Trained by Rebecca Curtis (2 of last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (last two winners)
Copperhead 6/1 won the race in 2020
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
2.25 – ‘My Oddsboost’ On Betfair Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV
Only 10 previous runnings
10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 8 or older
8/10 – Finished 5th or better last time out
7/10 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/10 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
7/10 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
6/10 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
6/10 – Aged in double-figures
4/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/10 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Winning Favourites
2/10 – Trained by Venetia Williams
6 of the last 8 winners carried 11-0 or more
Ballyoptic (8/1) won the race in 2020
Regal Encore won the race in 2018 and was third in 2019
3.00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV
14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 or less
9/15 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/15 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/15 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Priced 8/1 or bigger
7/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/15 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/15 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/15 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Nordano (8/1) won the race in 2020
18/18 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
17/18– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
16/18 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
15/18 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
15/18 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
14/18 – Officially rated 157 or higher
13/18 – Favourites placed
12/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
9/18 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/18 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/18 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
7/18 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
7/18 – Won their last race
5/18 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
3/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Alan King
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
10 of the last 14 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018
Cyrname won the race in 2019
Riders On the Storm won the race in 2020
HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV)
2.05 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV
17/18 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/18 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
12/18 – Rated 145 or higher
12/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/18 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/18 – Aged 8 or younger
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
9/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
8/18 – Had run at Haydock before
6/18 – French-bred
5/18 – Placed favourites
3/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/18 – Winning favourites
1/18 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Emitom (7/4 fav) won the race in 2020
Donna’s Diamond (7/1) won the race in 2018
Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park
2.40 – William Hill Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV
18/18 – UK-based trained winners
18/18 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
16/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
14/18 – Aged 10 or younger
14/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Rated 135 or higher
12/18 – Aged 9 or younger
12/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
7/18 – Irish-bred winners
4/18 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/18 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/18 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/18 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
4 of the last 6 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 10/1
17/17 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
16/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
15/17 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
13/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
11/17 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/17 – Rated 155 or higher
8/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/17 – Trained by Alan King
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/17 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-02-19 13:00:492021-02-19 19:40:12Sat TV Trends: 20th Feb 2021
The cold snap continues to claim fixtures on a daily basis, even the all weather fixtures, but Lingfield looks highly likely to survive a morning inspection and we’ll go there for Saturday’s preview.
The 3.10pm, run over 10f, will now be shown live on ITV4 thanks to the abandonments of Newbury and Warwick and despite being a relatively lowly class 5 race, that TV coverage should make it a much more popular betting heat than it would have been otherwise.
Pace
Over several distances at Lingfield you see a pace bias towards front runners, is that the case over this distance of ten furlongs?
We do see a slight edge towards those closer to the pace but this distance looks a lot fairer than many others. The win percentages and place percentages favour prominent racers but there isn’t much between front runners and those from mid division which gives the majority of runners a very fair chance.
It’s worth noting that those that are held up are worse off for all metrics so extreme waiting rides around here should be avoided where possible.
Of course the pace of each individual race has a huge bearing on any potential pace biases so the pace map for this race should be examined closely.
There isn’t a whole lot of pace in this race and it’s unlikely to be a well run contest that favours hold up horses. Convertible and Amsby are comfortable racing prominently but neither are habitual front runners so there is every chance that prominent is the most advantaged position in this once again.
Draw
This race is run over the same course and distance as the Winter Derby and the Easter Classic on All Weather Finals Day and in those races a high draw is often talked about as a big negative.
There does seem to be a slight disadvantage for higher drawn runners in this field size. PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) is most likely to flag a draw bias and a figure of 0.48 for high draws compared to 0.51 for both low and middle suggests a small disadvantage but no major concerns.
The win percentage figures for high draw runners are a bit more concerning though, only 4.7% of high drawn winners have won in the data sample compared to a 12.39% win percentage for low draws and a 12.18% win ratio for middle draws. The place percentage uses three times as much as the win percentage figures and things are more even looking at place percentage. High draws place 25.64% of the time and that’s only around 6% lower than low and middle draws (which are once again extremely similar) which backs up the impression that a high draw is a slight disadvantage but not a factor that should be used to completely write off a runner.
Looking at the individual stall data should give some more insight.
Despite a high draw generally being a slight disadvantage, the worst individual stall as far as PRB is concerned is stall 1 with a PRB of just 0.44. This stall 1 issue is found at other distances too (notably 1 mile) and is possibly down to patiently ridden horses from stall 1 rarely getting a clear run.
The poor results for stall 1 will have an affect on the low draw data so the fact that low draws do well on the whole suggests stalls 2 and 3 should be marked up somewhat. Stall 3 in fact has the best PRB (0.56) ahead of stalls 2, 4 and 6 which all have a PRB of 0.53.
The above image is sorted by PRB3, which combines data from the two adjacent stalls to flatten the curve and remove data anomalies. This suggests that a low to middle draw is ideal as long as you aren’t drawn in stall 1. On the whole though no stall should be considered a coffin box.
Pace And Draw Combination
The pace and draw combination graphics on Geegeez Gold are excellent in showcasing possible hidden advantages and disadvantages.
This particular data set seems to show that being on the outside of the field around Lingfield’s fairly sharp circuit is quite the disadvantage and the reason why higher draws tend to perform less well than low and middle. The fact that front runners and hold up horses seem to be better at overcoming a high draw will be down to those run styles being more likely to get closer to the inside whilst high drawn prominent racers and mid division racers will be forced wide more often than not.
The Runners
We’ll take a look at the runners one by one in their early market order, starting with the most fancied and working our way down to any outsiders.
Stopnsearch
Beaten over course and distance on his last two runs but that doesn’t tell the full story for this lightly raced 4yo. He’s had just the two starts at 10f and he’s been a little unlucky in both. On the first occasion he was beaten less than 2 lengths having endured a bit of a nightmare passage in the straight and he followed that up by being beaten just a short head last time out.
He’s only gone up 2lbs for that last effort, which is probably fair given it didn’t look the strongest of contests. He wasn’t seen to best effect off a slow gallop but the likely front runner in this race is the same horse that made the running in his last race so he’s unlikely to get a stronger pace to chase this time around.
He’s clearly a leading contender on his last two runs and should go well again.
Convertible
Hugo Palmer does well with headgear changes and he seems to have found the key now with the tongue tie and visor combination for the previously inconsistent Convertible. He set a steady gallop last time out when 3rd behind Stopnsearch, a horse he also faced on his penultimate start too when he was a slightly fortunate half length ahead of that rival on that occasion.
He was beaten absolutely fair and square last time when getting the run of the race and assuming he gave his full running that day his chance of reversing form probably rides on Ryan Moore getting a better tune out of the horse. He’s capable of running well again but makes less appeal than Stopnsearch, even at the bigger price. Stall 1 may also be a slight concern.
Capla Crusader
Seemed to step up last time out when winning, switching from extreme hold up tactics to making all. He's a possible pace angle again here despite what the pace map tells us having run so well with those tactics employed. That was his second run for a new trainer that day and it seems everything came together.
He very much stole that race by kicking into the bend and although previously rated 9lbs higher he never went close off those higher marks and a 7lb rise for that last win, which probably flattered him a little, might well be enough to find him out. He may be able to get an easy lead once again though.
Avorisk Et Perils
A dual course winner, representing Gary Moore, a trainer who has been in excellent form over the winter. On his latest start he finished half a length in front of Capla Crusader and is now 6lbs better off. Capla Crusader clearly improved from first run to second run for his new trainer but that’s an important form line to note. What’s even more interesting is that Capla Crusader wasn’t the only winner to come out of that race. The winner and the 3rd both won next time out as well plus the runner up was a half length 2nd on his next start. That’s clearly hot handicap form and Avorisk Et Peril was held up in his run a couple of times so can be marked up a little too.
He’s run well here on several occasions and had various excuses for some poor runs here too. He’s run twice over course and distance off this mark, winning one of those and running very well in the aforementioned hot handicap last time. He’s clearly capable off this mark here and could represent plenty of each way value.
Stall 8 isn’t completely ideal and he wouldn’t want to find himself too far back but he’s sat in mid division often enough (including last time out) to suggest that’s how he’ll be ridden in this. Hopefully he doesn’t find himself caught on the outside of runners.
Amsby
Handicap debutant Amsby is the big unknown in this. His first two runs came here at Lingfield and they included a one length 2nd to Group One Power. That horse was competitive off marks in the low 80s last season but those runs were over middle distances and he gave Amsby a beating giving him 7lbs over a mile so Amsby looks only fairly treated off 69 based on that form.
Amsby wasn’t seen for 291 days before being beaten 13 lengths at Kempton in December. That was a decent enough contest but he still ran below par and does need to improve to be competitive off this mark now.
Capriolette
A consistent mare on the all weather that brings course form figures of 1344 into this. She’s been defeated on all three tries over this course and distance but they all came off higher marks in races that have worked out fairly well so it can’t really be said she doesn’t stay (she’s placed over a furlong further at Kempton). She also probably had too much use made of her on her latest run here.
There is plenty of form in the book that suggests she’s very capable of winning off this sort of mark and her ability to run well over a mile could be of use here if there isn’t much early pace. The cheekpieces she’s worn on her last two starts are left off but she’s run well plenty of times without headgear so that’s no real concern.
She’s overpriced here at around 10/1 at the time of writing but looks more of a place only bet in this company.
Aztec Dreams
Second run after a wind op and a 438 day break. Given that break this 8yo ran really well in 5th over course and distance last time out, beaten less than three lengths. It’s difficult to know what to make of his previous French form or how much he’ll improve for his latest outing but he’s not without a chance in this. He will need to improve on his comeback run though.
Bealach
Probably Gary Moore’s second string in this, Bealach went from racing over 12f on polytrack to racing over 1m on fibresand on his stable debut last time out. It’s therefore no real surprise he was an 18 lengths last in that race. This contest will tell us more about his well being but even if he bounces back to form, 10f round here off a slow early pace will probably still be too sharp. One to watch with a view to possibly backing next time out when going up in trip again.
Compass Point
A surprise winner two starts ago over course and distance but far less convincing last time when well beaten behind Capla Crusader. He’s dropped just 1lb for that and would need to run better than his recent win to take this so he’s opposable even if bouncing back to form.
Decompartmentalize
He hadn’t shown much in Ireland before moving to Pat Phelan and he continued that trend when last and well beaten on handicap debut for his new trainer last time out at Kempton at 100/1. Huge odds again here and with good reason.
Verdict
Capriolette is interesting and capable of taking a slightly weaker race than this but this might be a little competitive for her.
Stopnsearch is the obvious one with few negatives and if Covertible and Capla Crusader were to compete for the lead that might set things up nicely for him. He’s short enough in the early betting though.
The one who makes most appeal is Averisk Et Perils at around 10/1 early. I’m a big fan of ‘hot form’ and his latest effort certainly fits that profile with three next time out winners and a next time out runner up from the first six finishers. He’s won off this mark, over this course and distance and if able to get a decent early position he should have as much chance of winning this as the favourite, at much bigger odds and an each way price. There is a fair chance he finds himself wider than ideal though which could be enough to cost him victory.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/matterhorn_wissahickon_AW_Classic.jpg318830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-02-12 17:06:172021-02-12 17:06:17Miss This Lingfield Runner At Your Peril!
The weather continues to claim fixtures on a regular basis and Sandown’s card on Saturday will remain in some sort of doubt until a morning inspection. Prospects seem more encouraging at Musselburgh so we’ll head there for Saturday’s preview on one of their live ITV races.
The Edinburgh National at 4.15pm looks a really interesting contest. Testing ground and a marathon trip of 4m1f will make it a gruelling test and hopefully we can rule a fair few out based on conditions alone.
As usual we’ll go through the race using a number of tools available through a Geegeez Gold subscription.
Pace
Generally speaking the longer the distance, the less there is a hereditary front running pace bias in racing so let’s see if there is any pace bias over this 33f trip.
There is very limited data for this distance so it seems best to open up a few of the parameters here, especially the distance. Looking at chases that have taken place at Musselburgh over distances of 3m+ there does seem to still be a pace bias. It’s not with front runners though but with those that tend to race prominently.
Prominent racers have won 17.09% of qualifying races they have contested which is more than mid division and held up have provided combined. Those that race prominently have a better win percentage, place percentage, win PL, each way PL and IV than any other run style.
Front runners produce better results than mid division and held up so there is clearly an advantage in being closer to the pace than patiently ridden. Win percentage, place percentage and IV are very similar between mid division and held up but in terms of market expectancy mid division massively outperforms held up with win PL and place PL far worse for those held up compared to mid division.
How about the pace setup for this particular race?
We’re probably not going to see a hectic gallop and a steady early gallop should amplify the advantage of those that race prominently. It could also help those with slightly questionable stamina.
Little Bruce could find himself with an uncontested lead with The Ferry Master, Mighty Thunder, Le Breuil and Billy Bronco likely to race in the ‘perfect’ position for this course. That quartet could be worth marking up in our estimations.
Dino Boy and Saint Xavier are amongst the more fancied runners that have been patiently ridden more often than not on recent starts and that pair will do very well to win from the rear if that’s how they are ridden here once again. Dino Boy was prominently ridden last time though when winning so we may well see a repeat of those tactics here.
Instant Expert
The place data with some loose parameters should give us a fair idea of which runners are more likely to give their running than others in this contest.
It’s understandable that most horses should come out with a decent place record with the above filters and any ‘red’ results should be fairly concerning, especially if the data sample is more than a couple of races.
Perhaps the main standouts from a positive perspective here are The Ferry Master who has hit the frame for all filtered races as well as Dino Boy and Bob Mahler who display very solid profiles.
Saint Xavier looks a huge negative considering his odds, he has failed to place in all races in this going or in this field size and he also has a poor record in class 2 or class 3 races. Stay Humble also has some worrying stats, including four failures to place in soft ground. He does have a 100% record of placing at Musselburgh at least.
There are no real negatives over this extreme distance, although it’s worth noting that half the field haven’t gone anywhere near this far before so there are certainly some stamina question marks in the field.
Keeping those loose parameters but looking at win records, we obviously see a lot more with red profiles now.
The profile of The Ferry Master now looks a lot less attractive from a win perspective but Dino Boy remains a positive overall. Bob Mahler has a 100% win record at Musselburgh that’s only from one run.
Classic Escape and Billy Bronco look worth taking on from those nearer the head of the betting based on the bare statistics whilst further down the odds list Little Bruce is worth closer inspection solely because he has a decent strike rate at staying trips.
Stamina
Stamina will be key here and we seem to have two distinct groups of runners, those proven over staying trips and those who are yet to test their stamina over anywhere near this far. First let’s look at those with the proven stamina as they are more likely to throw up a solid each way bet.
Runners With Marathon Experience
Little Bruce was previously mentioned as a runner worth examining more closely because of two wins from five over extended trips. His latest run came in a 2m NHF flat race at Newcastle so a poor run there is of no concern over this much different test. He was beaten over 40 lengths on his two previous runs though without too many excuses and he was beaten the best part of 20 lengths in this last year when finishing 4th. This has presumably been the target once again but he’s only 2lbs lower than last year and doesn’t look in the right form to win this.
Last year’s winner, Bob Mahler, is arguably the most ‘proven’ runner here. He won this race last year in similar conditions and followed up with a good 3rd in the Kim Muir. He’s been in no sort of form this season though, pulled up in all three runs. A wind op hasn’t improved him and he’s another you couldn’t back with any confidence at the minute., for all he's interesting on last year's form.
Dino Boy was marked as a runner that looked interesting based on Instant Expert. Relatively lightly raced for an 8yo, he was pulled up on seasonal debut on his first start for Iain Jardine but put that run behind him on his first start beyond 3m2f last time when winning over an extended 4m, proving his stamina for this contest in the process. He has a leading chance on that form but it was noted by the stewards that the trainer declared the horse stripped fitter for his seasonal debut but also improved for returning to a left handed track. Musselburgh is of course a right handed track and he was also a beaten favourite a year ago at Wincanton (also right handed) so backers beware.
Le Breuil is the favourite here and a runner who has tested himself over extreme trips on a few occasions. He won almost two years ago over 1.5f shy of this trip at the Cheltenham Festival but has been fairly expensive to follow since (beaten favourite on three of his last four starts). He found things happening too quickly at last year’s Festival over 3m2f but ran creditably over the same distance on his first two starts this season. His best two runs since his last win have both come over 3m5f at Warwick and it’s likely that the extra trip has been the key there. That especially seems to be the case as he’s been outpaced even at those trips before staying on again and this step back up in trip looks a very smart move. Connections also reach for the cheekpieces here and he didn’t run brilliantly on his previous run with them on, for all it was a completely different test, so he’s a slightly risky favourite with that in mind for all he could be a class above here and ticks lots of boxes.
Classic Escape and Billy Bronco have both tried this sort of trip before without success. Both have placed though. The former has a fairly consistent profile and he ran with credit last time behind Dino Boy when 2nd. That pretty much proved his stamina but he was beaten 15 lengths that day so it can’t really be argued that he ran brilliantly. Billy Bronco has finished 2nd over 3m6f but he’s been pulled up on his last two runs at that kind of distance and didn’t seem to stay 4m2f in the Midlands National a few years ago so looks a risky proposition.
Runners With Stamina To Prove
The Ferry Master had a solid place profile for this according to Instant Expert but looked less impressive from a win perspective. He’s won his last two starts over trips just shy of 3m and is yet to try anything like this kind of distance. His sire was a 1m winner on the flat and the furthest any of his offspring have won over is 3m1f so his stamina is certainly questionable. He is two from two in cheekpieces though and would have an excellent chance if he stays.
Saint Xavier had some serious question marks across the board according to Instant Expert so let’s take a closer look at his chances. He’s certainly not the most consistent and has been very up and down for both Paul Nicholls and Richard Hobson on these shores. He’s been gradually finding his feet this season though for Hobson and put in his best performance for quite some time last time out at Kempton over 3m in a first time visor. This will be a very different test though, going up in trip by a mile and he now tries first time blinkers. He is related to Irish Grand National winner Burrows Saint but his inconsistency is a worry as much as anything else.
The Delray Munky refused at the last on her most recent run when a remote 2nd but had won her previous race comfortably. She’s an extended 3m winner on heavy but she’s not always the strongest finisher and looks another suspect stayer in this. His trainer does have an IV of 1.65 in marathon handicaps though so it’s perhaps taking notice when one runs over this sort of trip for the first time. Her sire has had five runners at this distance and none have placed but three of them fell or were brought down and one of the two finishers was a 66/1 chance so it’s difficult to draw too many conclusions. Her sire has had a winner at 3m6f in the past.
Fortified Bay tried an extended 3m4f last time out at Haydock in very deep ground and although he finished 2nd, he was beaten 45 lengths. He’s been given 77 days to get over that run which seems a wise move. His trainer has an IV of 1.36 with handicap runners returning from a 60+ day break so that too is reassuring. His sire seems to get more than his fair share of 2m winners and hasn’t had any winners at further than 3m so a big stamina question mark over this one.
Stay Humble was 2nd on his only previous run here but that was over just 2m4f last time out. He’s run okay on his two tries over distances further than 3m though and he does have some potential off this sort of mark at that kind of trip at the very least. He is a prominent racer which is a bonus here but the big questions is his stamina. His sire has had a couple of 3m1f winners but he’s 0 from 11 at 3m4f+ according to the Profiler. The horse’s better runs have also come on slightly better ground.
Mighty Thunder completes the field at big odds. He’s run here four times over hurdles and those efforts include and win and a 2nd at 13/2 and 22/1 respectively. He won on his penultimate start when making all and similar tactics wouldn’t be a huge disadvantage here but he was beaten a very long way last time out at Kelso. Whether or not he’s well enough handicapped to win this, will stay the trip or in better form this time around are all question marks and that’s at least one too many but if he is back to form and does stay he’ll outrun his odds.
Verdict
None of those without proven stamina look to be crying out for the step up in trip and many have form, or well being, question marks too. The Ferry Master would be very interesting over shorter but is short enough with such a stamina doubt. If they don’t go a very strong gallop and he is well placed off that gallop he might get away with it and would be ideally positioned and he would be one to potentially consider in running depending on how strong the early pace is.
Several of those with proven stamina or near proven stamina have to prove their well being so the two most reliable selections could end up being Le Breuil and Dino Boy. If there wasn’t the question mark over Dino Boy being as good right handed as he is left handed he would be the first choice here but he’s no guarantee to run as well around this course. Le Breuil has been expensive to follow and does have to prove himself in the cheekpieces but those cheekpieces could be the making of him. He does come with risks attached but that can be said about every single runner in this field and on the balance of things he looks the most likely to win this, for all he’s not the greatest value play you’ll ever see on a Saturday.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/CarefullySelected_Naas_Jan2020.jpg320830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-02-05 15:43:282021-02-05 15:48:04Can Le Breuil Finally Come Good In Edinburgh National?
Sandown, Musselburgh and Wetherby (called off) provide the LIVE ITV action this Saturday.
Also, an added bonus this weekend with last Saturday’s cancelled Cotswold Chase from Cheltenham are being rerouted to Sandown.
As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the races covered from a trends angle.....
Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y ITV4
14/14 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
14/14 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
11/14 – Aged 9 or younger
10/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/14 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (4 won)
7/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/14 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
6/14 – Raced at Sandown last time out 5/14 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/14 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
5/14 – Aged 7 years-old
6/14 – French bred
4/14 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/14 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Dolos won this race in 2019
Dolos (7/2) won the race in 2020
17/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/17 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
17/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks 16/17 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
13/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Defi Du Seuil JLT Novices’ Chase)
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – French bred
10/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Aged 7 years-old
6/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/17 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
4/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (4 of last 6 winners)
Itchy Feet (7/1) won the race in 2020
17/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
16/17 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
15/17 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
12/17 – Priced 7/1 or less
12/17 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/17 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/17 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/17 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/17 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
1/17 – Favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 24% record with his chasers at the track
3.30 – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV4
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less
15/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
12/17 – Rated 136 or lower
10/17 – Placed last time out
10/17 – Irish-bred
9/17 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/17 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – French-bred
3/17 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/17 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 7)
2/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 7)
Deise Alba (7/1) won this race in 2020
Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
**CANCELLED DUE TO A WATERLOGGED TRACK**
1.58 – William Hill Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m
15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
14/16 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously 13/16 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
13/16 – Officially rated 154 or higher
11/16 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
11/16 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
9/16 – Won their latest race
8/16 – Favourites that won
6/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown
2020 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) 4/6 fav
2.35 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV4
14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
11/15 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/15 – Aged 7 years-old
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/15 – Trained by Ian Williams
Newtide (9/2) won the race in 2020
Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.05 - bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y ITV4
12/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
11/13 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
10/13 – Aged 6 years-old
8/13 – Former flat horses
8/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Favourites placed in the top 4
7/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/13 – Rated between 120-130
2/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Won last time out
Dear Sire (15/2) won this race in 2018
Sebastopol (9/2) won the race in 2020
3.45 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y ITV4
Only three previous runnings
2/3 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/3 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
1/3 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Bob Mahler (9/2 jfav) won the race in 2020
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-02-05 13:04:472021-02-08 11:07:16Sat TV Trends: 6th Feb 2021
February is upon us and, with it, the focus on the Cheltenham Festival becomes more intense. Regardless of the debate about the middle March showpiece overpowering the National Hunt calendar's narrative, there is no denying it offers a rich range of options from an ante post perspective. So, during this short hiatus from decent turf action, I thought it might be worth looking at a couple of the more interesting 'side bets'.
The growth of 'request a bet' type functionality has been a boon for bookmakers, with ambitious punters adding more and more elements which must occur in an event in order to trigger the cumulative payout. These are largely to be avoided though the related contingency (i.e. one element having a direct bearing on another element within the wager) factor can occasionally make such plays of interest. Here are two which might appeal - they did to me!
Arkle Chase - Shishkin to win by six lengths-plus (10/3 Skybet)
On first inspection, I was apprehensive of this. Not because I think the horse in question is poor value: on the contrary, I think he's a very, very likely winner where the biggest dangers are expected to be the form of his stable and the 13 fences between the rising tapes and jam stick.
Of stable form, it can be seen from the right hand part of the chart that the Henderson hordes have not been firing at their highest rate in recent months. Nor, mind you, has the win percentage been anything other than aspirational for most other yards.
Moreover, there is plenty of time for an uptick should such a thing even be necessary: it's not prevented Shishkin from strolling home in his three chase runs this season, most recently by eight widening lengths from a 150-odd-rated animal on Saturday.
And in terms of jumping acuity, he has yet to make a serious mistake in three chases. True, all were small field affairs, but the Arkle, too, will quite likely cut up to a handful of contenders.
The opposition looks a rung below Shishkin, with perhaps Energumene the only credible danger. A fortnight ago, he beat a rival of similar ability by the same margin as Shishkin won on Saturday; if that was a parallel performance, there is little doubt about the 'remaining gears' differential in my view. Moreover, Willie Mullins' charge was a little novice-y in places that day for all that he was entitled to be on just his second fencing start. One further slight question mark is whether Energumene needs to lead in his races: he has led or disputed in all four of his starts over obstacles though whether that was a function of class and staying out of harm's way, or is a tactical prerequisite, is moot. What is clearer is that, if he does go forward, he will very likely face a challenge from Allmankind who appears to have no plan B when it comes to run style.
All of the above verbosity is by way of suggesting that Shishkin will probably win assuming he turns up in one piece (never a given). But a top priced 8/11, whilst still very far from offensive in value terms, is unexciting for those of us with limited elevens to risk in the pursuit of eights. And here is where the winning distance comes in.
Skybet are actually offering prices on winning margins of 2+ lengths (10/11), 4+ lengths (2/1), 6+ lengths (10/3), 8+ lengths (5/1) and 10+ lengths (7/1). I'm interested in 6+ as the optimal value play. And here's why.
Last year, Put The Kettle On was a 16/1 chance when winning by a length and a half. There were 18 lengths back to the third placed horse. In the five previous renewals, the race went more in keeping with the form already in the book as 5/1 Duc Des Genievres was the only one of the quintet of Arkle winners between 2015 and 2019 to score at odds against. His winning margin was 13 lengths. The four odds-on scorers, in reverse chronological order Footpad, Altior, Douvan and Un De Sceaux, scored by, respectively, 14 lengths, six lengths, seven lengths and six lengths.
The tl;dr (bit late now, I realise) is that five of the last six winners - four of them, like Shishkin, odds-on favourites - won by six lengths or more. In that context, Shishkin - who has won all of his completed starts, by 8L, 11L, 11L, a neck, 23L, 13L, and 8.5L - looks very fairly priced at 10/3 to win the Arkle by six lengths or more.
Queen Mother Champion Chase - Chacun Pour Soi to win by four lengths-plus (4/1 Skybet)
Suggesting an ante post position on a hitherto infamously infrequent racecourse attendee may seem a tad gung-ho, all the more so when said runner was withdrawn on the morning of the race last year. But there is a growing belief, in the heart and mind of this scribbler at least, that the 2020/21 Chacun Pour Soi model is a more robust one.
Exhibit A to that end are the two races - both comfortable victories, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company - in one month, the final month of last year. If that's the good news, the less good news is that Exhibit B must likely follow this weekend at the (outright excellent) Dublin Racing Festival; and Exhibit C requires him to cross the Irish channel in mid-March sans sicknote.
That's a risk and there are no two ways about it: if you don't like that risk, don't make this bet. Indeed, don't make any bet on CPS without the 'non runner no bet' concession.
But if, like me, you think 4/1 more than accommodates the chance of his non-participation, then let's talk about the opposition and the winning margin, oppo first.
This season, I've been a Put The Kettle On fan and a Politologue fan and a Chacun Pour Soi fan. The first two have bombproof Cheltenham form while the headline act - in the context of this proposed wager - has had a look around Cleeve Hill but not yet galloped there in anger. If anything was to happen to CPS, I'd split my stake between the other two named here, and might chuck in Rouge Vif in the unlikely event we get a six week drought henceforth. I can't have Altior, as much as my heart wrestles my head to consider him: he's just too long in the tooth now, before we even consider the depth of the Kempton form behind Nube Negra (a horse arguably a good bit better suited to Aintree than Cheltenham, though he has run well at the Festival).
Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths. He will again face the second horse from that Grade 1, Notebook, if both stand their ground at the weekend, and the fact that Notebook is circa 5/1 third choice for Dublin's Festival Chase speaks of the paucity of opposition once more. There is the not inconsiderable frame of Min betwixt and between in the weekend market but, in the same ownership as Chacun Pour Soi, it is unclear what might be gained from that pair locking horns. Mind you, they did last season, CPS prevailing by most of four lengths.
Put The Kettle On jumped poorly under Sean Flanagan when slammed by CPS and Notebook last time but can be expected to improve both for a return to Cheltenham and the presumed return of Aidan Coleman to the saddle. In that light, she's of minor interest at 14/1 each way and also worth at least a second glance when the 'without the favourite' market emerges. But it is hard to see her turning tables with her last day vanquisher.
Of the home team, Politologue had been under-rated a touch in my view: his Festival record is excellent and he is the reigning champ. He'd looked good this season before being undone by an absolutely terrific performance from First Flow at Ascot ten days or so ago. Kim Bailey's charge reminded me of something between Denman's belligerence and the young Master Minded's panache: he has some way to go ratings-wise to be within a half furlong of that pair but his Ascot performance was, visually, everything jump racing should be.
In terms of race tactics at Cheltenham, if First Flow and Politologue again have at it a mile and more from home, as they did at Ascot, they'll be spent when CPS presents arms at the turn in, and that one ought to run away from them thereafter, assuming he handles the track.
The margin of victory of Champion Chase-winning favourites in recent years is thus: Altior 2019 (1 3/4 lengths), Altior 2018 (7 lengths), Sire De Grugy 2014 (6 lengths), Sprinter Sacre 2013 (19 lengths), Master Minded 2009 (7 lengths).
If Chacun Pour Soi runs and wins at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend - he's currently a best priced 4/9 so to do - he'll be shorter for the winning margin bets and odds on for the Champion Chase. If he doesn't run, he'll be circa evens on the day assuming he shows up. If he runs and gets beaten, who knows? But, like I say, I think he's a more robust animal this season, and I'm prepared to back that perception.
So here's the rub: if Chacun Pour Soi wins the Champion Chase, I believe he'll win by a 'fresh air' margin. And if he doesn't... well, you might as well have 4/1 as 6/5 about the same loser.
The link to this market (at the bottom, in the 'lengthen the odds' section) is here.
**
There will be lots of to and fro in the six weeks from now until the Cheltenham Festival gets underway. A few positions on shorties at fancier prices, for all that the spectre of our picks winning but not by far enough looms, may help to wile the worst of these remaining Covid days.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ChacunPourSoi_LeopardstownG1_December2020.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-02-01 15:37:292021-02-02 11:51:23Two Cheltenham Festival Side Bets to Consider
Cheltenham's abandonment means three races from Lingfield will be shown on ITV and that includes their 3.30pm, a class 3 mile handicap that looks a nice betting heat despite just the seven runners.
I’ve looked at a few different mile handicaps here over the winter and the data shows that front runners can have an advantage.
The smaller the field the less ground hold up horses need to make up in most cases so it’s no surprise that in fields of this sort of size the front runner advantage isn’t quite as strong. The majority of winners in smaller fields here over this distance are held up but they have the worst win percentage record of just 12.02%. This steadily climbs the closer to the pace you get, 18.8% of front runners are victorious here. We also see similar increases in the place percentage and IV metrics as you get closer to the pace.
One thing that is worth remembering is that although hold up performers can be at a disadvantage over this course and distance, Lingfield is well suited to speedier hold up types that have a turn of foot. We saw this a couple of weeks ago when Intuitive won a nice handicap over track and trip. Grinders, that are typically suited to straight courses or long straights and take plenty of winding up tend to do much less well here and are the kinds of hold up horse to oppose.
Looking at the pace map for this race:
Unsurprisingly in a seven runner contest, there is little pace on offer here. Golden Force looks the lone pace angle but he’s unlikely to make it much of a test. He’s led on three of his last seven runs and has been close to the pace in all but one of those. He seems a horse that doesn’t need to lead but is happy to do so when it provides him with a tactical advantage.
Atheeb may well be close up. He had been ridden fairly patiently for Sit Michael Stoute previously but on debut for George Boughey last time out he led in the first furlong before tracking a pretty strong pace. The new connections probably see him as a horse that likes to race handily and it would be no surprise to see him ridden fairly positively again.
The majority of the remaining runners tend to be patiently ridden so there should be little pressure on the leaders here.
Draw
The data here suggests a slightly peculiar trend:
In seven runner fields here low drawn runners have a PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) of just 0.44 whilst middle and high draws have a PRB of 0.53 and 0.54 respectively. For some reason stalls 1 and 2 both perform much poorer than any other stall in this field size. Now this could be a quirk of the data as there is no obvious reason why those stalls should perform much worse but stall 1 has the worst PRB in field sizes of 8 runners whilst in 9 runner contests stalls 1 and 2 are amongst the three worst stalls for PRB. So there is potentially something in this and Lethal Lunch is stall 1 and Tadleel in stall 2 could be at a slight disadvantage here.
The Runners
Looking at each of the seven runners here in early market order:
Catch My Breath
A winner of his last two starts here, Catch My Breath carries a 5lb penalty whilst jumping up two classes. The impressive Laura Pearson rides but she also rode last time so there is no additional benefit from her claim today compared to last time.
It seems strange that in the very early betting this horse is just 13/8 so he could well be a day of race drifter. He’s a 5yo, off a career high mark going up to class 3 company for the first time. The race he won last time didn’t look particularly strong but he is unbeaten in two course and distance runs and on his only other start here he ran fairly well in a warm handicap over 10f so this course is clearly bringing the best out in him and he can’t be ruled out.
Golden Force
The likely pace angle in the race has been in good form since racing resumed in June, winning 3 of his 8 starts. He’s 10lbs higher than his defeat to Lalania in June which is a race that worked out extremely well with the winner going up 16lbs in the ratings since then, that 10lb rise isn’t guaranteed to find him out based on that run.
His good form since June could be down to the change of headgear to a visor, which he continues to race in here. He’s also seemed particularly well suited to Wolverhampton, producing form figures of 131 there (the 3rd was a close third, beaten less than a length). On polytrack however his form figures have been 499376. He failed to beat a runner home when sent off 11/4 on his only previous run at Lingfield and that would be a concern. The form of the Charlie Fellowes yard would also be a slight concern. He’s not had a winner since Golden Force won a month ago, that run spans 18 runners, 8 of which were shorter than 5/1 so better runs would clearly have been expected for many of those.
Masked Identity
Masked Identity was behind Golden Force on his last two runs at Wolverhampton, beaten 1.75 lengths and 3 lengths respectively. He was unsuited by a slow gallop when beaten 3 lengths and although only 2lbs better off now, he does have claims of turning that form around given question marks over Golden Force’s suitability to this track.
Masked Identity has his own question marks here though. He’s raced 12 times on the all weather, producing 2 wins and 6 top 3 finishes but he’s yet to race at Lingfield. He’s run well in defeat at Chelmsford on several occasions though. His latest when a staying on 3rd over a furlong shorter having met trouble in running and he also finished 3rd last time he raced at a mile there, behind two subsequent winners when rated 3lbs higher. He’s raced at 4 all weather courses and finished at least 2nd at all of them so Lingfield shouldn’t be a worry. He’s won off a 1lb lower mark in the past and although he might be vulnerable for win purposes, he’s well capable of running well.
Lethal Lunch
Some serious questions to answer for this runner. On his stable debut, last time out, he was dropped into claiming company and despite being sent off a 5/4 chance he was beaten 10 lengths. He hasn’t shown anything since finishing 6th in the Wokingham in June and this is his first run over a mile so there are so many reasons he could run poorly. He has won at Lingfield, and is one of those speedy types that could do well if held up over this trip, but his current well being has to be taken on trust and stall 1 is potentially a disadvantage too. One to keep an eye on in the market though.
Atheeb
Surprising to see this runner available at 8/1 in the very early betting. He won over course and distance on his penultimate outing in a race that worked out well. The 2nd and 3rd have both won off higher marks and there were several other winners in behind. He’s 5lbs higher but he won that race cosily and beat other well handicapped runners so is certainly still of interest off 85.
That was his only run as a 3yo. Presumably he had problems and he was later sold, reappearing as a runner for George Boughey earlier this month. He was 6th, beaten almost 5 lengths, so certainly needs to improve on that bare form but there are reasons to think he will. Firstly that looked a really strong race and he probably chased too fast a pace (the pace setters finished 9th and 11th).
There is also the fact he was having his first start in 223 days for a new trainer. George Boughey has inherited 25 runners from other yards in the past 5 years and not one of those 25 runners has won first time for him. A huge 18 of those were single figure prices and 10 were shorter than 5/1 so his horses clearly don’t run well first time when joining from other yards.
Now what is really interesting is 22 of those 25 runners have had more than one run for Boughey and 9 were successful on one of their next two outings so they clearly come on for that first run.
Rossa Ryan has only ridden for the yard on three occasions in the past 5 years and he’s produced form figures of 133.
There is obviously some risk involved given he does need to come on for that last run but the evidence suggests he will, both based on the above data and also the fact that he was a 6/1 shot early for his last race and went off at 12/1.
Mohareb
Mohareb outran his odds two weeks over course and distance when 3rd in a class 2 handicap. That run merits plenty of respect but the winner won by 3.5 lengths and it’s worth noting the 2nd favourite and joint 4th favourites were both below par that day so finishing 3rd might not be the achievement it first seemed.
His record here at Lingfield over 7f or a mile reads 133 and he’d be more than capable of finishing around 3rd or 4th here but that doesn’t make him of betting interest in this contest.
Tadleel
Along with Lethal Lunch he’ll be looking to improve the record of low drawn runners in this. He has been successful over 7f in his career but 7f around Lingfield looks too sharp a test so his defeat last time out here over shorter is forgiveable, for all he was definitely below par having failed to beat a runner home. He was beaten half that distance on his previous run against a pace bias at Chelmsford off a 144 day break so that Lingfield run was definitely a step backwards.
He was competitive over this distance in class 2 handicaps at York in the summer off this sort of mark so he probably doesn’t deserve to be as big as 16/1 early but he clearly needs to bounce back from that lesser effort last time out. That was his only run at Lingfield so perhaps it’s a case of the course not suiting. He’s best watched here but it would be no surprise if he won over a mile in the near future.
Verdict
Masked Identity is capable of running well in this and is probably more interesting than Golden Force due to the latter possibly being better suited by tapeta than polytrack. Golden Force will be one of the better positioned runners though.
Catch My Breath and Atheeb both bring 100% c&d records into this race. Catch My Breath seems really well suited to this course so is respected and he should run well but he’s of much less interest at short odds given he’s facing much better horses here than he previously has done.
Atheeb on the other hand has beaten progressive, well handicapped horses over course and distance and seems to have far more scope to be better than his current mark. The angle with the progression of Boughey new recruits from first run to subsequent runs is a very interesting one and is more than enough to help me favour Atheeb for this contest.
The selection will hopefully track Golden Force early and get first run on the rest of the field going into the straight. Given there is a chance he doesn't improve from last time you'd probably want to go win only even if there were three places on offer so with two places on offer for each way bets it's even easier to decide to back him win only.
The bad news is the Cheltenham Trials Day fixture, that was due to be staged this Saturday, has been called off due to a waterlogged track.
The ITV cameras are, however, heading to Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive SkyBet Chase – a race the Alan King yard have won in two of the last four seasons.
As always, we got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)
2.05 - Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV
10/11 – Had won over this trip before
10/11 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Aged 8 or younger
9/11 – Won last time out
8/11 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/11 - Winning favourites
5/11 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
5/11 – Irish bred
2/11 - Trained by Philip Kirby
2020 Winner: LADY BUTTONS (P Kirby) 6/4 jfav
2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV
11/11 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
9/11 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/11 – Won last time out
7/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/11 – Winning favourite
2/11 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
8 of the last 9 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old 2020 Winner: RAMSES DE TEILLEE (D Pipe) 6/1
3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH43m ITV
14/15 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
12/15 – Carried 11-2 or less
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
12/15 – Officially rated 130 or higher
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell
Other Stats:
4 of the last 15 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
5 of the last 15 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)
2020 Winner: Ok CORRAL (N Henderson) 9/1
Cheltenham Trials Day Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV) -
15/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
10/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
10/17 – French bred (including last 8 winners)
9/17 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
8/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/17 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil 2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
5/17 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
4/17 – Trained by Alan King
4/17 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
3/17 – Won by a German bred horse
3/17 – Won by an Irish bred horse
Nicky Henderson has trained 4 of the last 8 winners
3 of the last 4 winners have been owned by JP McManus
17/17 – Aged 8 or younger
16/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018, Simply The Betts 2020, Brown Advisory and Merribelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase) 15/17 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
15/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
14/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
13/17 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
13/17 – Rated 128 or higher
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/17 – Carried 11-2 or more
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/17 – French bred
3/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/17 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/17 – Winning favourites (none in the last 11 runnings)
2020 Winner: SIMPLY THE BETTS (H Whittington) 11/2
1.50 – Paddy Power Millionaire Trophy Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV
15/17 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
15/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
15/17 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
15/17 – Rated 130 or higher
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
12/17 – Aged 8 or older
12/17 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
12/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
10/17 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Carried 10-7 or less
6/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Won by the Hobbs yard
2020 Winner: CEPAGE (V Williams) 8/1
2.25 – Paddy Power ’45 Sleeps To Cheltenham’ Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV
17/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
16/17 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
15/17 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
12/17 – Priced 7/1 or less
12/17 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/17 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/17 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/17 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/17 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
1/17 – Favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
15/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
14/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
13/15 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
13/15 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
12/15 – Favourites placed
12/15 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
12/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
12/15 – Won their latest race
11/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
10/15 – Priced 4/1 or shorter
8/15 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
5/15 – Favourites that won
4/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/15 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/15 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
14/16 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
13/16 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
13/16 – Officially rated 154 or higher
11/16 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
11/16 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
9/16 – Won their latest race
8/16 – Favourites that won
6/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown
16/16 – Rated 120 or higher
15/16 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
14/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
13/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
12/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/16 – Irish bred
7/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/16 – French bred
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/16 – Trained by Chris Gordon
2/16 – Trained by Martin Keighley
9 of the last 10 winners aged 7 or younger
11 of the last 12 winners carried 10-12 or less in weight
2020 Winner: BACK ON THE LASH (M Keighley) 13/2
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-01-29 13:00:172021-01-29 12:02:47Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 30th Jan 2021
It’s off to Haydock, Ascot and Taunton this Saturday for the LIVE ITV action.
At Ascot, the Grade One Clarence House Chase (3.35) is their feature contest – a race the classy Defi Du Seuil landed 12 months ago.
Then at Haydock, the Peter Marsh Chase (2.40) is their showcase race – a prize that trainer Sue Smith has won five times in the last 17 years.
While, a big day at Taunton too with the ITV cameras heading there to show their Weatherbys Portman Cup (2.15) - a race the Paul Nicholls-trained Yala Enki won 12 months ago.
So, like all big race days, we’ve got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle – just these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles based on past winners.
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
1.15 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
11/11 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
10/11 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
10/11 – From the top 4 in the betting
10/11 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
8/11 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/11 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (4) in their last race
7/11 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – Winning Favourites
4/11 – French bred
4/11 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/11 - Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/11 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Magic Light won the race in 2019 and 2020
1.50 – Matchbook Better Way To Bet Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4
11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/13 – Officially rated 139 or higher
10/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
9/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/13 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – French bred
6/13 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
6/13 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/13 – Won their last race
6/13 – Aged 6 years-old
6/13 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/13 – Trained by David Pipe
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/13 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/13 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/13 – Favourites (1 co)
Thomas Darby (8/1) won the race in 2020
Ballymoy (4/1) won the race in 2019
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock
13/14 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
12/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Either French (5) or Irish (7) bred
11/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
11/14 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
9/14 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
6/14 – Winning distance - 6 lengths or further
5/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 6 runnings)
3/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/14 – Winning Favourites
Domaine De L’Isle (5/1) won the race in 2020
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter
17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
15/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
11/17 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
10/17 – Favourites that won
9/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (28 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 3/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV
14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
14/14 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Winning Favourites
6/14 – Had raced at Haydock previously
4/14 - Ran at Haydock last time out
4/14 – French bred
3/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/14– Trained by Venetia Williams
2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
Stolen Silver (9/2) won the race in 2020
Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby
2.40 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV
17/17 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
16/17 – Aged 8 or older
16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
15/17 – Had run within the last 36 days
12/17 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
12/17 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Won at Haydock previously
12/17 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/17 – Favourites unplaced
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
9/17 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/17 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/17 – Won over fences at Haydock before
7/17 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/17 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/17 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
6/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – Trained by Sue Smith
4/17 – Ridden by Danny Cook
2/17 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/17 – Won their last race
2/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1
3.15 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
15/15 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
15/15 – Favourites placed in the top 3
13/15 - From the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Finished in the top three in their last race
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
12/15 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
12/15 – Officially Rated 150 or higher
11/15 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
11/15 – Either French (3) or Irish (8) bred
11/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (7) last time out
8/15 – Aged 7 or younger
8/15 – Winning Favourites
4/15 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/15 – Won their last race
1/15 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
Ballyandy (5/2) won this race in 2020
2 previous runnings
Yala Enki (11/10 fav) won the race in 2020
Trainers Paul Nicholls and Colin Tizzard have won the race before
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 50% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Bryony Frost has a 27% record riding over fences at the track
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-01-23 01:25:022021-01-23 09:12:00Sat TV Trends: 23rd Jan 2021
With Haydock’s card still in doubt we head to Ascot for Saturday’s preview, specifically the bet365 Handicap Chase which will be run at 3pm. The race will be shown on ITV4 and looks a fiendishly difficult puzzle to solve but as usual the aim of this preview will be to shed some light on possible angles using the brilliant form tools on offer with Geegeez Gold.
Pace
As usual we begin with pace to find what run style might be best suited to this contest here.
The Pace Analyser shows us that this sort of distance at Ascot on the chase course often most suits those who race prominently. We don’t have a huge amount of data here admittedly but the win percentage and place percentage figures speak massively in favour of prominent racers and from just 10 races prominent runners have produced a huge Win PL of 62.5 and an IV of 2.44.
Front runners are next best according to the data we have ahead of mid division and then hold up performers.
If we narrow things down further to races run only on soft or heavy ground we lose some of our data so I’ve included slightly smaller fields too to add some more data in. In total we are looking at seven races and five of those have been won by prominent racers. Prominent racers have also provided twice as many placed finishers as any other running style. Front runners and prominent racers combined have produced 60% of the placed horses from less than 50% of the runners.
Let’s have a look at the pace map for this race:
There could be a contested pace here with Colorado Doc, Bennys King and Dashel Drasher all likely to be keen to get on with things. Of that trio Bennys King is the only one who has proven he can dominate and win in big fields at this kind of level.
Prominent racers were most favoured by the course pace analysis and Young Wolf, Espoir De Guye and Good Boy Bobby seem most likely to fill those prominent positions just off the pace.
Instant Expert
Instant Expert is always extremely useful in races of this nature. Let’s first take a look at the place data across all codes:
Now the win data, only for chases:
Both are sorted by course record as I always like proven right handed form at right handed courses over jumps, especially course form.
Good Boy Bobby and Jerrysback seem most reliable in this sort of going, the former has extensive experience in soft or heavy ground and seems guaranteed to go through it with few problems. The runners with the biggest going questions marks are relatively unconsidered in the betting it seems.
Plenty of runners have a decent record of at least placing in class 2 races. Espoir De Guye has won both his chases in class 2 company whilst Dashel Drasher and Acting Lass are both 2 from 3 in class 2 races. Good Boy Bobby may have failed to win in both his class 2 chases but he was runner up in both contests so shouldn’t be judged harshly.
Bennys King and Dashel Drasher both have a 100% record of placing at Ascot whilst Espoir De Guye and Acting Lass are 2 from 3 and 2 from 4 respectively in terms of placing. There are six course chase winners in the field. Espoir De Guye has 2 wins from 3 runs here with Dashel Drasher the only horse showing off a 100% win record over these fences.
Good Boy Bobby has not yet raced here which can’t be held against him but what does stand out as a worry is his failure to win in four runs at this kind of trip.
It was previously mentioned that Benny’s King has proven he can dominate big fields, he has won two of his three races in this sort of field size whilst Espoir De Guye is one from two.
So according to Instant Expert Espoir De Guye, Dashel Drasher are potentially amongst the most solid contenders, for all Dashel Drasher is unproven in big fields, with Gold Old Bobby having a fair few question marks hanging over him for one that is so well fancied in the betting.
Trainers
With Ascot such a prestigious track it could be interesting to see how each of the trainers involved here perform at the course. For this we can use the Query Tool.
Sean Curran comes out on top in terms of course IV from the past five years but with just two runners in that time we can’t draw too many conclusions. That’s certainly not a negative for the chances of Domaine De L’Isle though.
Jeremy Scott has also had limited qualifying runners from two from seven is a very good strike rate and that would be a another plus for Dashel Drasher.
Of the trainers with much more experience here over the past five years Harry Fry, Paul Nicholls, Venetia Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Philip Hobbs all have more than their fair share of winners whilst the records of Jonjo O’Neill, Brian Ellison and Philip Kirby are less than impressive, although the latter two trainers have only had limited runners here.
Jockeys
Going can have an effect on jockey performance so let’s take a look at how these jockeys have performed here at Ascot on soft or heavy ground over the past five years:
Matt Griffiths, jockey for Dashel Drasher, has only had one ride here on soft or heavy but it was a victorious one and it would be quite remarkable if he could make it two from two here. Brian Hughes and Harry Skelton, who ride Windsor Avenue and Bennys King respectively, both have more experience and strong records here on testing ground.
The data suggests Harry Cobden, Sean Bowen and Daryl Jacob underperform at Ascot in soft or heavy ground so that is possibly a negative against the chances of Capeland, Acting Lass and Good Boy Bobby.
Verdict
Good Boy Bobby does have some questions to answer but he certainly brings strong form into this. His Cheltenham run a month ago, when 4th, has been working out nicely with three subsequent winners in behind and the winner going on to finish a decent 3rd next time. He’s short enough in the betting though so happy enough to leave him alone.
Bennys King is well proven around here and for him it’s mainly a question over whether he’s still well enough handicapped to win a race like this. He should run well but could be slightly vulnerable for win purposes.
Dashel Drasher has lots going for him and is two from two at Ascot over fences and hurdles. Ability to run well in bigger fields can be overlooked in races like this and he wasn’t at his best in bigger fields earlier in his career and much of his best form has come in smaller fields so he could be worth opposing here.
Espoir De Guye’s name kept popping up in Instant Expert as a solid contender and he represents a trainer that does pretty well here for a jockey that does pretty well here in testing conditions. He’s still lightly raced, proven at Ascot and should be well enough placed. He clearly didn’t stay 3m on his last run and a return to this trip will suit (he wouldn’t mind dropping even further in trip in all likelihood). He’s a fair enough price for an each way punt in what looks a really tricky race.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/notsosleepy.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-01-22 13:28:232021-01-22 15:01:50Course Form Could Prove Crucial In Tough Ascot Handicap
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