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Haydock Grand National Trial Preview: Achille Has Claims For Form Reversal With Favourite

19 February 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

On Saturday we have Haydock’s Grand National Trial Handicap Chase to look forward, a race in which Neptune Collonges finished runner up in 2012 before landing the big one just six weeks later.

The off time is 2.40pm for this contest and whether it throws up another Grand National winner or not it should be a great race and a real test of stamina.

As usual I’ll be going through this race using a range of tools and data that are available with a Geegeez Gold subscription.

Don’t forget you can get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1 right here.

Pace

Pace is one of the most crucial (and overlooked) factors in racing. Using the Pace Analyser we can see any potential pace bias over staying trips at Haydock.

In this kind of field size there is an edge towards horses that race closer to the pace.

The most common racing style for a winner is prominent and it’s interesting to compare the win percentages of 18% and 14.29% for front runners and prominent racers respectively to those provided by mid division (5.06%) and held up (7.75%).

Place percentages follow a similar trajectory which adds to the impression that there is a fairly strong pace advantage here and both front runners and prominent racers have strong IV figures 1.71 and 1.36 respectively.

We might gain further insight from looking at races only run on soft or heavy ground given the current going at Haydock is soft, heavy in places.

It’s a similar story again with prominent racers providing the most wins but with front runners having the best win percentage. Prominent racers seem to enjoy almost exactly the same advantage they do in better conditions but it is notable that front runners seem to perform better in the more testing conditions.

The fact that when you only look at soft or heavy ground races front runners perform even better and hold up runners perform worse suggests that the pace bias might be exaggerated in softer ground.

The above information is best used in conjunction with the pace data for each individual race. Each runner is assigned a ‘pace score’ every time they run based on what early position they raced in and this data is used to create an interactive pace map.

It looks highly likely that The Two Amigos is going to get an easy, uncontested lead in this race with no other real pace options in the race. Achille tends to race fairly prominently and has led in the past but he was held up last time so looks likely to be handy at best.

If this race does end up suiting those up with the pace then Sojourn and Potters Legend could be the most inconvenienced by the pace setup.

Instant Expert

Instant Expert can give us a snapshot of each runner’s suitability to the important race conditions here. First let’s look at the place data.

Plenty of green on offer and very little red suggesting the majority of these are well proven in conditions. It’s worth noting that class data would include non handicap runs too which makes it a bit less relevant in the context of this race.

Sojourn and Notachance clearly go very well in this kind of ground whilst four runners come into this with a 100% place record at the course (Perfect Candidate and Lord Du Mesnil have both placed in all three runs here).

One of the more worrying red flags here is that Potters Legend has failed to place in two runs over this kind of distance. On closer inspection he has run well enough over a furlong shorter though.

Now let’s narrow things down for win purposes.

Another worry for Potters Legend, he’s just one from fourteen in these ground conditions. The Two Amigos and Achilles also have questionable win records on testing ground. Lord Du Mesnil and Perfect Candidate both score well across the board (disregarding race class) and that pair both have won two out of three here so the course clearly holds no fears for them. Based on Instant Expert alone they both seem decent each way bets.

The Runners

Let’s take a look at each runner in odds order.

Notachance

A very exciting prospect. He’s finished 1^st or 2^nd in five of his six chase starts and he’s won his last two, including the Warwick Classic Handicap Chase over a furlong further last month. He tracked the pace at Warwick last time out and a repeat of those tactics should give him an advantage here.

He’s up 7lbs for that latest effort but he’s completely unexposed at this sort of distance so it’s not unfeasible that he’ll have improved that much since his last run. There is very little in the formbook to suggest he won’t run very well once again in this race ahead of a possible tilt at the Scottish Grand National.

The Two Amigos

A consistent front runner who has hit the frame in all four starts since finishing 4^th in this last year. He's 2lbs higher this time around but should get the uncontested lead he didn’t get last year and that should see him improve. Finishing 2^nd to Secret Reprieve in the Welsh National last time out was certainly a decent trial for this and suggests he is as good as ever.

He hasn’t won for over two years now though which is a major concern and although he’s entitled to give his running once again, he does look vulnerable for win purposes, especially at the current odds.

His jockey, James Bowen, has been in great form in the past 30 days, generating an IV (Impact Value) of 2.53.

Enqarde

Been in very good form since joining Dr Richard Newland, winning twice, finishing a neck runner up and unseating his rider on his other start. With only one completed chase start on these shores he’s potentially well ahead of his mark considering the style in which he won (and he beat two last time out winners). He also jumped left when winning at Ascot so this course should suit better.

He’s the shortest priced contender who is yet to prove his stamina but that does also mean he potentially has more secrets from the handicapper than much of the rest of the field.

The Profiler is great for telling us the likelihood of a horse staying based on sire stats and although this could be the limit of his stamina, his sire’s offspring do have a good record over this distance with a 44.44% place strike rate. This suggests there is a good chance he stays and if he does he should go very well. He should also race prominently which will suit.

Sojourn

Not seen since finishing 2^nd last time out here before Christmas having previously won a hot handicap at Carlisle.

The runner up and 3^rd both won next time out and the 4^th was runner up on his next start so to beat those runners by 15 lengths is quite impressive.

Trainer Anthony Honeyball has previously stated that the horse is probably best fresh so the recent break should have done him so good. In fact Honeyball has an IV of 3.52 with handicap runners returning from a break of 60+ days so that’s another bonus.

He’s got very few miles on the clock and does have to prove his stamina over an extra couple of furlongs but it should be no issue. He’s tactically versatile and another very strong contender.

Lord Du Mesnil

A possible good each way place according to Instant Expert with some strong stats for the most important criteria. He has course form figures of 112 and that includes two course and distance efforts. He’s only 2lbs above his mark when 2^nd in this last year.

He hasn’t been in quite the same form this season, having not run brilliantly in either run. This and/or the Grand National have probably been the aim all season so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he steps forward from that form but he does come with risks attached given those two runs so isn’t quite the each way play he might have looked.

Achille

Runner up behind Notachance on his latest start, which came off the back of a 427 day break. Given he could come on for that run and is 3lbs better off with the winner for a half length defeat he’d have a fair chance of reversing form and looks a possible value play at the odds given his form line with the favourite.

He’s clearly not been easy to train but he’s been consistent on the track when getting there in one piece so his problems shouldn’t be too off putting. Reverting to slightly more aggressive tactics than last time out should suit and he’s very much respected.

Potter Legend

Potters Legend looked like he may be unsuited by the way the race will be run in the pace map and there were also some question marks when looking at Instant Expert, namely the going. He has won three times in his career on soft but he hasn’t won in six runs on heavy so the heavy in places is a concern. He’s a previous course winner but he doesn’t look amazingly handicapped and is yet to fully convince at the more extreme trips so there are enough negatives to go against him.

Ramses De Teillee

Beat reliable yardstick Yala Enki in November but has struggled twice in similar contests to this on his last two runs. He’s a previous course winner in a small field so perhaps the return to this venue will spark a return to form.

It's worth noting that trainer David Pipe is in excellent form at the moment, notably producing an A/E of 2.57 in the past 14 days. It’s possible that helps him return to form too but on the whole he remains a risky proposition.

Perfect Candidate

Perfect Candidate also looked a fair each way shout according to Instant Expert but he’s the complete outsider in the field. He’s gone up 8lbs for winning a course and distance handicap by a procession in which not many handled the conditions. He’s never finished worse than 2^nd in three course and distance runs and the only real negative is this is a very exposed 14yo against some well handicapped rivals. If the ground was to deteriorate further he’d look a very interesting each way option but he’s going to need at least a couple of these progressive rivals to fail to give their running to win this.

Verdict

If the going was predominantly heavy on Saturday then Perfect Candidate would be the value each way call.

Notachance, Enqarde and Sojourn are the most interesting trio longer term. Notachance is really solid and looks to have a really good chance, Enqarde has a bit more risk attached but still has plenty of upside (potentially even more than Notachance) and Sojourn still looks well handicapped but was beaten last time out and does still have to prove he stays this extra couple of furlongs.

The value against the favourite though is surely Achille at 9/1. With that last run under his belt and a change to more positive tactics than were used last time he could potentially improve past Notachance, in the short term at least.

Sat TV Trends: 20th Feb 2021

19 February 2021/in Horse Racing Blog, Trends/by Andy Newton

Another jam-packed Saturday of racing for the ITV horse racing team as they head to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton to take in seven races across the three venues.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.50 - Bateaux Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

18/18 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
16/18 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
15/18 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
14/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Won last time out
11/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Winners that went onto finish 5^th or better in the RSA Chase
8/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Trained by Rebecca Curtis (2 of last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (last two winners)
Copperhead 6/1 won the race in 2020

Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

2.25 – ‘My Oddsboost’ On Betfair Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

Only 10 previous runnings
10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 8 or older
8/10 – Finished 5^th or better last time out
7/10 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/10 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
7/10 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
6/10 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
6/10 – Aged in double-figures
4/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/10 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Winning Favourites
2/10 – Trained by Venetia Williams
6 of the last 8 winners carried 11-0 or more
Ballyoptic (8/1) won the race in 2020
Regal Encore won the race in 2018 and was third in 2019

3.00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV

14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 or less
9/15 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/15 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/15 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Priced 8/1 or bigger
7/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/15 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/15 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/15 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Nordano (8/1) won the race in 2020

3.35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

18/18 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
17/18– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
16/18 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
15/18 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
15/18 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
14/18 – Officially rated 157 or higher
13/18 – Favourites placed
12/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
9/18 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/18 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/18 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
7/18 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
7/18 – Won their last race
5/18 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
3/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Alan King
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
10 of the last 14 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018
Cyrname won the race in 2019
Riders On the Storm won the race in 2020

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV)

2.05 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

17/18 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/18 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
12/18 – Rated 145 or higher
12/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/18 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/18 – Aged 8 or younger
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
9/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
8/18 – Had run at Haydock before
6/18 – French-bred
5/18 – Placed favourites
3/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/18 – Winning favourites
1/18 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Emitom (7/4 fav) won the race in 2020
Donna’s Diamond (7/1) won the race in 2018

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

2.40 – William Hill Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV

18/18 – UK-based trained winners
18/18 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
16/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
14/18 – Aged 10 or younger
14/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Rated 135 or higher
12/18 – Aged 9 or younger
12/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
7/18 – Irish-bred winners
4/18 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/18 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/18 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/18 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/18 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
4 of the last 6 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 10/1

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV)

3.18 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
16/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
15/17 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
13/17 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
12/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
11/17 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/17 – Rated 155 or higher
8/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/17 – Trained by Alan King
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/17 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)

Miss This Lingfield Runner At Your Peril!

12 February 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

The cold snap continues to claim fixtures on a daily basis, even the all weather fixtures, but Lingfield looks highly likely to survive a morning inspection and we’ll go there for Saturday’s preview.

The 3.10pm, run over 10f, will now be shown live on ITV4 thanks to the abandonments of Newbury and Warwick and despite being a relatively lowly class 5 race, that TV coverage should make it a much more popular betting heat than it would have been otherwise.

Pace

Over several distances at Lingfield you see a pace bias towards front runners, is that the case over this distance of ten furlongs?

We do see a slight edge towards those closer to the pace but this distance looks a lot fairer than many others. The win percentages and place percentages favour prominent racers but there isn’t much between front runners and those from mid division which gives the majority of runners a very fair chance.

It’s worth noting that those that are held up are worse off for all metrics so extreme waiting rides around here should be avoided where possible.

Of course the pace of each individual race has a huge bearing on any potential pace biases so the pace map for this race should be examined closely.

There isn’t a whole lot of pace in this race and it’s unlikely to be a well run contest that favours hold up horses. Convertible and Amsby are comfortable racing prominently but neither are habitual front runners so there is every chance that prominent is the most advantaged position in this once again.

Draw

This race is run over the same course and distance as the Winter Derby and the Easter Classic on All Weather Finals Day and in those races a high draw is often talked about as a big negative.

There does seem to be a slight disadvantage for higher drawn runners in this field size. PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) is most likely to flag a draw bias and a figure of 0.48 for high draws compared to 0.51 for both low and middle suggests a small disadvantage but no major concerns.

The win percentage figures for high draw runners are a bit more concerning though, only 4.7% of high drawn winners have won in the data sample compared to a 12.39% win percentage for low draws and a 12.18% win ratio for middle draws. The place percentage uses three times as much as the win percentage figures and things are more even looking at place percentage. High draws place 25.64% of the time and that’s only around 6% lower than low and middle draws (which are once again extremely similar) which backs up the impression that a high draw is a slight disadvantage but not a factor that should be used to completely write off a runner.

Looking at the individual stall data should give some more insight.

Despite a high draw generally being a slight disadvantage, the worst individual stall as far as PRB is concerned is stall 1 with a PRB of just 0.44. This stall 1 issue is found at other distances too (notably 1 mile) and is possibly down to patiently ridden horses from stall 1 rarely getting a clear run.

The poor results for stall 1 will have an affect on the low draw data so the fact that low draws do well on the whole suggests stalls 2 and 3 should be marked up somewhat. Stall 3 in fact has the best PRB (0.56) ahead of stalls 2, 4 and 6 which all have a PRB of 0.53.

The above image is sorted by PRB3, which combines data from the two adjacent stalls to flatten the curve and remove data anomalies. This suggests that a low to middle draw is ideal as long as you aren’t drawn in stall 1. On the whole though no stall should be considered a coffin box.

Pace And Draw Combination

The pace and draw combination graphics on Geegeez Gold are excellent in showcasing possible hidden advantages and disadvantages.

This particular data set seems to show that being on the outside of the field around Lingfield’s fairly sharp circuit is quite the disadvantage and the reason why higher draws tend to perform less well than low and middle. The fact that front runners and hold up horses seem to be better at overcoming a high draw will be down to those run styles being more likely to get closer to the inside whilst high drawn prominent racers and mid division racers will be forced wide more often than not.

The Runners

We’ll take a look at the runners one by one in their early market order, starting with the most fancied and working our way down to any outsiders.

Stopnsearch

Beaten over course and distance on his last two runs but that doesn’t tell the full story for this lightly raced 4yo. He’s had just the two starts at 10f and he’s been a little unlucky in both. On the first occasion he was beaten less than 2 lengths having endured a bit of a nightmare passage in the straight and he followed that up by being beaten just a short head last time out.

He’s only gone up 2lbs for that last effort, which is probably fair given it didn’t look the strongest of contests. He wasn’t seen to best effect off a slow gallop but the likely front runner in this race is the same horse that made the running in his last race so he’s unlikely to get a stronger pace to chase this time around.

He’s clearly a leading contender on his last two runs and should go well again.

Convertible

Hugo Palmer does well with headgear changes and he seems to have found the key now with the tongue tie and visor combination for the previously inconsistent Convertible. He set a steady gallop last time out when 3^rd behind Stopnsearch, a horse he also faced on his penultimate start too when he was a slightly fortunate half length ahead of that rival on that occasion.

He was beaten absolutely fair and square last time when getting the run of the race and assuming he gave his full running that day his chance of reversing form probably rides on Ryan Moore getting a better tune out of the horse. He’s capable of running well again but makes less appeal than Stopnsearch, even at the bigger price. Stall 1 may also be a slight concern.

Capla Crusader

Seemed to step up last time out when winning, switching from extreme hold up tactics to making all. He's a possible pace angle again here despite what the pace map tells us having run so well with those tactics employed. That was his second run for a new trainer that day and it seems everything came together.

He very much stole that race by kicking into the bend and although previously rated 9lbs higher he never went close off those higher marks and a 7lb rise for that last win, which probably flattered him a little, might well be enough to find him out. He may be able to get an easy lead once again though.

Avorisk Et Perils

A dual course winner, representing Gary Moore, a trainer who has been in excellent form over the winter. On his latest start he finished half a length in front of Capla Crusader and is now 6lbs better off. Capla Crusader clearly improved from first run to second run for his new trainer but that’s an important form line to note. What’s even more interesting is that Capla Crusader wasn’t the only winner to come out of that race. The winner and the 3^rd both won next time out as well plus the runner up was a half length 2^nd on his next start. That’s clearly hot handicap form and Avorisk Et Peril was held up in his run a couple of times so can be marked up a little too.

He’s run well here on several occasions and had various excuses for some poor runs here too. He’s run twice over course and distance off this mark, winning one of those and running very well in the aforementioned hot handicap last time. He’s clearly capable off this mark here and could represent plenty of each way value.

Stall 8 isn’t completely ideal and he wouldn’t want to find himself too far back but he’s sat in mid division often enough (including last time out) to suggest that’s how he’ll be ridden in this. Hopefully he doesn’t find himself caught on the outside of runners.

Amsby

Handicap debutant Amsby is the big unknown in this. His first two runs came here at Lingfield and they included a one length 2^nd to Group One Power. That horse was competitive off marks in the low 80s last season but those runs were over middle distances and he gave Amsby a beating giving him 7lbs over a mile so Amsby looks only fairly treated off 69 based on that form.

Amsby wasn’t seen for 291 days before being beaten 13 lengths at Kempton in December. That was a decent enough contest but he still ran below par and does need to improve to be competitive off this mark now.

Capriolette

A consistent mare on the all weather that brings course form figures of 1344 into this. She’s been defeated on all three tries over this course and distance but they all came off higher marks in races that have worked out fairly well so it can’t really be said she doesn’t stay (she’s placed over a furlong further at Kempton). She also probably had too much use made of her on her latest run here.

There is plenty of form in the book that suggests she’s very capable of winning off this sort of mark and her ability to run well over a mile could be of use here if there isn’t much early pace. The cheekpieces she’s worn on her last two starts are left off but she’s run well plenty of times without headgear so that’s no real concern.

She’s overpriced here at around 10/1 at the time of writing but looks more of a place only bet in this company.

Aztec Dreams

Second run after a wind op and a 438 day break. Given that break this 8yo ran really well in 5^th over course and distance last time out, beaten less than three lengths. It’s difficult to know what to make of his previous French form or how much he’ll improve for his latest outing but he’s not without a chance in this. He will need to improve on his comeback run though.

Bealach

Probably Gary Moore’s second string in this, Bealach went from racing over 12f on polytrack to racing over 1m on fibresand on his stable debut last time out. It’s therefore no real surprise he was an 18 lengths last in that race. This contest will tell us more about his well being but even if he bounces back to form, 10f round here off a slow early pace will probably still be too sharp. One to watch with a view to possibly backing next time out when going up in trip again.

Compass Point

A surprise winner two starts ago over course and distance but far less convincing last time when well beaten behind Capla Crusader. He’s dropped just 1lb for that and would need to run better than his recent win to take this so he’s opposable even if bouncing back to form.

Decompartmentalize

He hadn’t shown much in Ireland before moving to Pat Phelan and he continued that trend when last and well beaten on handicap debut for his new trainer last time out at Kempton at 100/1. Huge odds again here and with good reason.

Verdict

Capriolette is interesting and capable of taking a slightly weaker race than this but this might be a little competitive for her.

Stopnsearch is the obvious one with few negatives and if Covertible and Capla Crusader were to compete for the lead that might set things up nicely for him. He’s short enough in the early betting though.

The one who makes most appeal is Averisk Et Perils at around 10/1 early. I’m a big fan of ‘hot form’ and his latest effort certainly fits that profile with three next time out winners and a next time out runner up from the first six finishers. He’s won off this mark, over this course and distance and if able to get a decent early position he should have as much chance of winning this as the favourite, at much bigger odds and an each way price. There is a fair chance he finds himself wider than ideal though which could be enough to cost him victory.

Can Le Breuil Finally Come Good In Edinburgh National?

5 February 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

The weather continues to claim fixtures on a regular basis and Sandown’s card on Saturday will remain in some sort of doubt until a morning inspection. Prospects seem more encouraging at Musselburgh so we’ll head there for Saturday’s preview on one of their live ITV races.

The Edinburgh National at 4.15pm looks a really interesting contest. Testing ground and a marathon trip of 4m1f will make it a gruelling test and hopefully we can rule a fair few out based on conditions alone.

As usual we’ll go through the race using a number of tools available through a Geegeez Gold subscription.

Pace

Generally speaking the longer the distance, the less there is a hereditary front running pace bias in racing so let’s see if there is any pace bias over this 33f trip.

There is very limited data for this distance so it seems best to open up a few of the parameters here, especially the distance. Looking at chases that have taken place at Musselburgh over distances of 3m+ there does seem to still be a pace bias. It’s not with front runners though but with those that tend to race prominently.

Prominent racers have won 17.09% of qualifying races they have contested which is more than mid division and held up have provided combined. Those that race prominently have a better win percentage, place percentage, win PL, each way PL and IV than any other run style.

Front runners produce better results than mid division and held up so there is clearly an advantage in being closer to the pace than patiently ridden. Win percentage, place percentage and IV are very similar between mid division and held up but in terms of market expectancy mid division massively outperforms held up with win PL and place PL far worse for those held up compared to mid division.

How about the pace setup for this particular race?

We’re probably not going to see a hectic gallop and a steady early gallop should amplify the advantage of those that race prominently. It could also help those with slightly questionable stamina.

Little Bruce could find himself with an uncontested lead with The Ferry Master, Mighty Thunder, Le Breuil and Billy Bronco likely to race in the ‘perfect’ position for this course. That quartet could be worth marking up in our estimations.

Dino Boy and Saint Xavier are amongst the more fancied runners that have been patiently ridden more often than not on recent starts and that pair will do very well to win from the rear if that’s how they are ridden here once again. Dino Boy was prominently ridden last time though when winning so we may well see a repeat of those tactics here.

Instant Expert

The place data with some loose parameters should give us a fair idea of which runners are more likely to give their running than others in this contest.

It’s understandable that most horses should come out with a decent place record with the above filters and any ‘red’ results should be fairly concerning, especially if the data sample is more than a couple of races.

Perhaps the main standouts from a positive perspective here are The Ferry Master who has hit the frame for all filtered races as well as Dino Boy and Bob Mahler who display very solid profiles.

Saint Xavier looks a huge negative considering his odds, he has failed to place in all races in this going or in this field size and he also has a poor record in class 2 or class 3 races. Stay Humble also has some worrying stats, including four failures to place in soft ground. He does have a 100% record of placing at Musselburgh at least.

There are no real negatives over this extreme distance, although it’s worth noting that half the field haven’t gone anywhere near this far before so there are certainly some stamina question marks in the field.

Keeping those loose parameters but looking at win records, we obviously see a lot more with red profiles now.

The profile of The Ferry Master now looks a lot less attractive from a win perspective but Dino Boy remains a positive overall. Bob Mahler has a 100% win record at Musselburgh that’s only from one run.

Classic Escape and Billy Bronco look worth taking on from those nearer the head of the betting based on the bare statistics whilst further down the odds list Little Bruce is worth closer inspection solely because he has a decent strike rate at staying trips.

Stamina

Stamina will be key here and we seem to have two distinct groups of runners, those proven over staying trips and those who are yet to test their stamina over anywhere near this far. First let’s look at those with the proven stamina as they are more likely to throw up a solid each way bet.

Runners With Marathon Experience

Little Bruce was previously mentioned as a runner worth examining more closely because of two wins from five over extended trips. His latest run came in a 2m NHF flat race at Newcastle so a poor run there is of no concern over this much different test. He was beaten over 40 lengths on his two previous runs though without too many excuses and he was beaten the best part of 20 lengths in this last year when finishing 4^th. This has presumably been the target once again but he’s only 2lbs lower than last year and doesn’t look in the right form to win this.

Last year’s winner, Bob Mahler, is arguably the most ‘proven’ runner here. He won this race last year in similar conditions and followed up with a good 3^rd in the Kim Muir. He’s been in no sort of form this season though, pulled up in all three runs. A wind op hasn’t improved him and he’s another you couldn’t back with any confidence at the minute., for all he's interesting on last year's form.

Dino Boy was marked as a runner that looked interesting based on Instant Expert. Relatively lightly raced for an 8yo, he was pulled up on seasonal debut on his first start for Iain Jardine but put that run behind him on his first start beyond 3m2f last time when winning over an extended 4m, proving his stamina for this contest in the process. He has a leading chance on that form but it was noted by the stewards that the trainer declared the horse stripped fitter for his seasonal debut but also improved for returning to a left handed track. Musselburgh is of course a right handed track and he was also a beaten favourite a year ago at Wincanton (also right handed) so backers beware.

Le Breuil is the favourite here and a runner who has tested himself over extreme trips on a few occasions. He won almost two years ago over 1.5f shy of this trip at the Cheltenham Festival but has been fairly expensive to follow since (beaten favourite on three of his last four starts). He found things happening too quickly at last year’s Festival over 3m2f but ran creditably over the same distance on his first two starts this season. His best two runs since his last win have both come over 3m5f at Warwick and it’s likely that the extra trip has been the key there. That especially seems to be the case as he’s been outpaced even at those trips before staying on again and this step back up in trip looks a very smart move. Connections also reach for the cheekpieces here and he didn’t run brilliantly on his previous run with them on, for all it was a completely different test, so he’s a slightly risky favourite with that in mind for all he could be a class above here and ticks lots of boxes.

Classic Escape and Billy Bronco have both tried this sort of trip before without success. Both have placed though. The former has a fairly consistent profile and he ran with credit last time behind Dino Boy when 2^nd. That pretty much proved his stamina but he was beaten 15 lengths that day so it can’t really be argued that he ran brilliantly. Billy Bronco has finished 2^nd over 3m6f but he’s been pulled up on his last two runs at that kind of distance and didn’t seem to stay 4m2f in the Midlands National a few years ago so looks a risky proposition.

Runners With Stamina To Prove

The Ferry Master had a solid place profile for this according to Instant Expert but looked less impressive from a win perspective. He’s won his last two starts over trips just shy of 3m and is yet to try anything like this kind of distance. His sire was a 1m winner on the flat and the furthest any of his offspring have won over is 3m1f so his stamina is certainly questionable. He is two from two in cheekpieces though and would have an excellent chance if he stays.

Saint Xavier had some serious question marks across the board according to Instant Expert so let’s take a closer look at his chances. He’s certainly not the most consistent and has been very up and down for both Paul Nicholls and Richard Hobson on these shores. He’s been gradually finding his feet this season though for Hobson and put in his best performance for quite some time last time out at Kempton over 3m in a first time visor. This will be a very different test though, going up in trip by a mile and he now tries first time blinkers. He is related to Irish Grand National winner Burrows Saint but his inconsistency is a worry as much as anything else.

The Delray Munky refused at the last on her most recent run when a remote 2^nd but had won her previous race comfortably. She’s an extended 3m winner on heavy but she’s not always the strongest finisher and looks another suspect stayer in this. His trainer does have an IV of 1.65 in marathon handicaps though so it’s perhaps taking notice when one runs over this sort of trip for the first time. Her sire has had five runners at this distance and none have placed but three of them fell or were brought down and one of the two finishers was a 66/1 chance so it’s difficult to draw too many conclusions. Her sire has had a winner at 3m6f in the past.

Fortified Bay tried an extended 3m4f last time out at Haydock in very deep ground and although he finished 2^nd, he was beaten 45 lengths. He’s been given 77 days to get over that run which seems a wise move. His trainer has an IV of 1.36 with handicap runners returning from a 60+ day break so that too is reassuring. His sire seems to get more than his fair share of 2m winners and hasn’t had any winners at further than 3m so a big stamina question mark over this one.

Stay Humble was 2^nd on his only previous run here but that was over just 2m4f last time out. He’s run okay on his two tries over distances further than 3m though and he does have some potential off this sort of mark at that kind of trip at the very least. He is a prominent racer which is a bonus here but the big questions is his stamina. His sire has had a couple of 3m1f winners but he’s 0 from 11 at 3m4f+ according to the Profiler. The horse’s better runs have also come on slightly better ground.

Mighty Thunder completes the field at big odds. He’s run here four times over hurdles and those efforts include and win and a 2^nd at 13/2 and 22/1 respectively. He won on his penultimate start when making all and similar tactics wouldn’t be a huge disadvantage here but he was beaten a very long way last time out at Kelso. Whether or not he’s well enough handicapped to win this, will stay the trip or in better form this time around are all question marks and that’s at least one too many but if he is back to form and does stay he’ll outrun his odds.

Verdict

None of those without proven stamina look to be crying out for the step up in trip and many have form, or well being, question marks too. The Ferry Master would be very interesting over shorter but is short enough with such a stamina doubt. If they don’t go a very strong gallop and he is well placed off that gallop he might get away with it and would be ideally positioned and he would be one to potentially consider in running depending on how strong the early pace is.

Several of those with proven stamina or near proven stamina have to prove their well being so the two most reliable selections could end up being Le Breuil and Dino Boy. If there wasn’t the question mark over Dino Boy being as good right handed as he is left handed he would be the first choice here but he’s no guarantee to run as well around this course. Le Breuil has been expensive to follow and does have to prove himself in the cheekpieces but those cheekpieces could be the making of him. He does come with risks attached but that can be said about every single runner in this field and on the balance of things he looks the most likely to win this, for all he’s not the greatest value play you’ll ever see on a Saturday.

Sat TV Trends: 6th Feb 2021

5 February 2021/in Trends/by Andy Newton

Sandown, Musselburgh and Wetherby (called off) provide the LIVE ITV action this Saturday.

Also, an added bonus this weekend with last Saturday’s cancelled Cotswold Chase from Cheltenham are being rerouted to Sandown.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the races covered from a trends angle.....

Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y ITV4

14/14 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
14/14 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
11/14 – Aged 9 or younger
10/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/14 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (4 won)
7/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/14 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
6/14 – Raced at Sandown last time out
5/14 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/14 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
5/14 – Aged 7 years-old
6/14 – French bred
4/14 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/14 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Dolos won this race in 2019
Dolos (7/2) won the race in 2020

1.50 – Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

17/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/17 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
17/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
13/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Defi Du Seuil JLT Novices’ Chase)
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – French bred
10/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Aged 7 years-old
6/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/17 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
4/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (4 of last 6 winners)
Itchy Feet (7/1) won the race in 2020

2.20 – Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m RTV

17/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
16/17 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
15/17 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
12/17 – Priced 7/1 or less
12/17 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/17 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/17 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/17 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/17 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
1/17 – Favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2020 Winner: SANTINI (N Henderson) 13/8

2.55 – Virgin Bet Warriors Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m4f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 24% record with his chasers at the track

3.30 – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV4

16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less
15/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
12/17 – Rated 136 or lower
10/17 – Placed last time out
10/17 – Irish-bred
9/17 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/17 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – French-bred
3/17 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/17 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 7)
2/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 7)
Deise Alba (7/1) won this race in 2020

Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

**CANCELLED DUE TO A WATERLOGGED TRACK**

1.58 – William Hill Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m

15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
14/16 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
13/16 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
13/16 – Officially rated 154 or higher
11/16 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
11/16 – Finished either 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
10/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
9/16 – Won their latest race
8/16 – Favourites that won
6/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2020 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) 4/6 fav

2.35 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
11/15 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/15 – Aged 7 years-old
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6^th or better)
2/15 – Trained by Ian Williams
Newtide (9/2) won the race in 2020

Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 - bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y ITV4

12/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
11/13 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
10/13 – Aged 6 years-old
8/13 – Former flat horses
8/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Favourites placed in the top 4
7/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/13 – Rated between 120-130
2/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Won last time out
Dear Sire (15/2) won this race in 2018
Sebastopol (9/2) won the race in 2020

3.45 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y ITV4

Only three previous runnings
2/3 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/3 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
1/3 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Bob Mahler (9/2 jfav) won the race in 2020

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Two Cheltenham Festival Side Bets to Consider

1 February 2021/in Cheltenham Festival Tips, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

February is upon us and, with it, the focus on the Cheltenham Festival becomes more intense. Regardless of the debate about the middle March showpiece overpowering the National Hunt calendar's narrative, there is no denying it offers a rich range of options from an ante post perspective. So, during this short hiatus from decent turf action, I thought it might be worth looking at a couple of the more interesting 'side bets'.

The growth of 'request a bet' type functionality has been a boon for bookmakers, with ambitious punters adding more and more elements which must occur in an event in order to trigger the cumulative payout. These are largely to be avoided though the related contingency (i.e. one element having a direct bearing on another element within the wager) factor can occasionally make such plays of interest. Here are two which might appeal - they did to me!

Arkle Chase - Shishkin to win by six lengths-plus (10/3 Skybet)

On first inspection, I was apprehensive of this. Not because I think the horse in question is poor value: on the contrary, I think he's a very, very likely winner where the biggest dangers are expected to be the form of his stable and the 13 fences between the rising tapes and jam stick.

Of stable form, it can be seen from the right hand part of the chart that the Henderson hordes have not been firing at their highest rate in recent months. Nor, mind you, has the win percentage been anything other than aspirational for most other yards.

Moreover, there is plenty of time for an uptick should such a thing even be necessary: it's not prevented Shishkin from strolling home in his three chase runs this season, most recently by eight widening lengths from a 150-odd-rated animal on Saturday.

And in terms of jumping acuity, he has yet to make a serious mistake in three chases. True, all were small field affairs, but the Arkle, too, will quite likely cut up to a handful of contenders.

The opposition looks a rung below Shishkin, with perhaps Energumene the only credible danger. A fortnight ago, he beat a rival of similar ability by the same margin as Shishkin won on Saturday; if that was a parallel performance, there is little doubt about the 'remaining gears' differential in my view. Moreover, Willie Mullins' charge was a little novice-y in places that day for all that he was entitled to be on just his second fencing start. One further slight question mark is whether Energumene needs to lead in his races: he has led or disputed in all four of his starts over obstacles though whether that was a function of class and staying out of harm's way, or is a tactical prerequisite, is moot. What is clearer is that, if he does go forward, he will very likely face a challenge from Allmankind who appears to have no plan B when it comes to run style.

All of the above verbosity is by way of suggesting that Shishkin will probably win assuming he turns up in one piece (never a given). But a top priced 8/11, whilst still very far from offensive in value terms, is unexciting for those of us with limited elevens to risk in the pursuit of eights. And here is where the winning distance comes in.

Skybet are actually offering prices on winning margins of 2+ lengths (10/11), 4+ lengths (2/1), 6+ lengths (10/3), 8+ lengths (5/1) and 10+ lengths (7/1). I'm interested in 6+ as the optimal value play. And here's why.

Last year, Put The Kettle On was a 16/1 chance when winning by a length and a half. There were 18 lengths back to the third placed horse. In the five previous renewals, the race went more in keeping with the form already in the book as 5/1 Duc Des Genievres was the only one of the quintet of Arkle winners between 2015 and 2019 to score at odds against. His winning margin was 13 lengths. The four odds-on scorers, in reverse chronological order Footpad, Altior, Douvan and Un De Sceaux, scored by, respectively, 14 lengths, six lengths, seven lengths and six lengths.

The tl;dr (bit late now, I realise) is that five of the last six winners - four of them, like Shishkin, odds-on favourites - won by six lengths or more. In that context, Shishkin - who has won all of his completed starts, by 8L, 11L, 11L, a neck, 23L, 13L, and 8.5L - looks very fairly priced at 10/3 to win the Arkle by six lengths or more.

The link to this market is here.

Queen Mother Champion Chase - Chacun Pour Soi to win by four lengths-plus (4/1 Skybet)

Suggesting an ante post position on a hitherto infamously infrequent racecourse attendee may seem a tad gung-ho, all the more so when said runner was withdrawn on the morning of the race last year. But there is a growing belief, in the heart and mind of this scribbler at least, that the 2020/21 Chacun Pour Soi model is a more robust one.

Exhibit A to that end are the two races - both comfortable victories, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company - in one month, the final month of last year. If that's the good news, the less good news is that Exhibit B must likely follow this weekend at the (outright excellent) Dublin Racing Festival; and Exhibit C requires him to cross the Irish channel in mid-March sans sicknote.

That's a risk and there are no two ways about it: if you don't like that risk, don't make this bet. Indeed, don't make any bet on CPS without the 'non runner no bet' concession.

But if, like me, you think 4/1 more than accommodates the chance of his non-participation, then let's talk about the opposition and the winning margin, oppo first.

This season, I've been a Put The Kettle On fan and a Politologue fan and a Chacun Pour Soi fan. The first two have bombproof Cheltenham form while the headline act - in the context of this proposed wager - has had a look around Cleeve Hill but not yet galloped there in anger. If anything was to happen to CPS, I'd split my stake between the other two named here, and might chuck in Rouge Vif in the unlikely event we get a six week drought henceforth. I can't have Altior, as much as my heart wrestles my head to consider him: he's just too long in the tooth now, before we even consider the depth of the Kempton form behind Nube Negra (a horse arguably a good bit better suited to Aintree than Cheltenham, though he has run well at the Festival).

Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths. He will again face the second horse from that Grade 1, Notebook, if both stand their ground at the weekend, and the fact that Notebook is circa 5/1 third choice for Dublin's Festival Chase speaks of the paucity of opposition once more. There is the not inconsiderable frame of Min betwixt and between in the weekend market but, in the same ownership as Chacun Pour Soi, it is unclear what might be gained from that pair locking horns. Mind you, they did last season, CPS prevailing by most of four lengths.

Put The Kettle On jumped poorly under Sean Flanagan when slammed by CPS and Notebook last time but can be expected to improve both for a return to Cheltenham and the presumed return of Aidan Coleman to the saddle. In that light, she's of minor interest at 14/1 each way and also worth at least a second glance when the 'without the favourite' market emerges. But it is hard to see her turning tables with her last day vanquisher.

Of the home team, Politologue had been under-rated a touch in my view: his Festival record is excellent and he is the reigning champ. He'd looked good this season before being undone by an absolutely terrific performance from First Flow at Ascot ten days or so ago. Kim Bailey's charge reminded me of something between Denman's belligerence and the young Master Minded's panache: he has some way to go ratings-wise to be within a half furlong of that pair but his Ascot performance was, visually, everything jump racing should be.

In terms of race tactics at Cheltenham, if First Flow and Politologue again have at it a mile and more from home, as they did at Ascot, they'll be spent when CPS presents arms at the turn in, and that one ought to run away from them thereafter, assuming he handles the track.

The margin of victory of Champion Chase-winning favourites in recent years is thus: Altior 2019 (1 3/4 lengths), Altior 2018 (7 lengths), Sire De Grugy 2014 (6 lengths), Sprinter Sacre 2013 (19 lengths), Master Minded 2009 (7 lengths).

If Chacun Pour Soi runs and wins at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend - he's currently a best priced 4/9 so to do - he'll be shorter for the winning margin bets and odds on for the Champion Chase. If he doesn't run, he'll be circa evens on the day assuming he shows up. If he runs and gets beaten, who knows? But, like I say, I think he's a more robust animal this season, and I'm prepared to back that perception.

So here's the rub: if Chacun Pour Soi wins the Champion Chase, I believe he'll win by a 'fresh air' margin. And if he doesn't... well, you might as well have 4/1 as 6/5 about the same loser.

The link to this market (at the bottom, in the 'lengthen the odds' section) is here.

There will be lots of to and fro in the six weeks from now until the Cheltenham Festival gets underway. A few positions on shorties at fancier prices, for all that the spectre of our picks winning but not by far enough looms, may help to wile the worst of these remaining Covid days.

Matt

Lingfield Preview: Bookies Overlook Profitable Trainer Change Angle

29 January 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

Cheltenham's abandonment means three races from Lingfield will be shown on ITV and that includes their 3.30pm, a class 3 mile handicap that looks a nice betting heat despite just the seven runners.

As usual I’ll be looking at this race using the form tools and racecards on offer with Geegeez Gold, many of which can be accessed for free on various days with a free geegeez account.

Pace

I’ve looked at a few different mile handicaps here over the winter and the data shows that front runners can have an advantage.

The smaller the field the less ground hold up horses need to make up in most cases so it’s no surprise that in fields of this sort of size the front runner advantage isn’t quite as strong. The majority of winners in smaller fields here over this distance are held up but they have the worst win percentage record of just 12.02%. This steadily climbs the closer to the pace you get, 18.8% of front runners are victorious here. We also see similar increases in the place percentage and IV metrics as you get closer to the pace.

One thing that is worth remembering is that although hold up performers can be at a disadvantage over this course and distance, Lingfield is well suited to speedier hold up types that have a turn of foot. We saw this a couple of weeks ago when Intuitive won a nice handicap over track and trip. Grinders, that are typically suited to straight courses or long straights and take plenty of winding up tend to do much less well here and are the kinds of hold up horse to oppose.

Looking at the pace map for this race:

Unsurprisingly in a seven runner contest, there is little pace on offer here. Golden Force looks the lone pace angle but he’s unlikely to make it much of a test. He’s led on three of his last seven runs and has been close to the pace in all but one of those. He seems a horse that doesn’t need to lead but is happy to do so when it provides him with a tactical advantage.

Atheeb may well be close up. He had been ridden fairly patiently for Sit Michael Stoute previously but on debut for George Boughey last time out he led in the first furlong before tracking a pretty strong pace. The new connections probably see him as a horse that likes to race handily and it would be no surprise to see him ridden fairly positively again.

The majority of the remaining runners tend to be patiently ridden so there should be little pressure on the leaders here.

Draw

The data here suggests a slightly peculiar trend:

In seven runner fields here low drawn runners have a PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) of just 0.44 whilst middle and high draws have a PRB of 0.53 and 0.54 respectively. For some reason stalls 1 and 2 both perform much poorer than any other stall in this field size. Now this could be a quirk of the data as there is no obvious reason why those stalls should perform much worse but stall 1 has the worst PRB in field sizes of 8 runners whilst in 9 runner contests stalls 1 and 2 are amongst the three worst stalls for PRB. So there is potentially something in this and Lethal Lunch is stall 1 and Tadleel in stall 2 could be at a slight disadvantage here.

The Runners

Looking at each of the seven runners here in early market order:

Catch My Breath

A winner of his last two starts here, Catch My Breath carries a 5lb penalty whilst jumping up two classes. The impressive Laura Pearson rides but she also rode last time so there is no additional benefit from her claim today compared to last time.

It seems strange that in the very early betting this horse is just 13/8 so he could well be a day of race drifter. He’s a 5yo, off a career high mark going up to class 3 company for the first time. The race he won last time didn’t look particularly strong but he is unbeaten in two course and distance runs and on his only other start here he ran fairly well in a warm handicap over 10f so this course is clearly bringing the best out in him and he can’t be ruled out.

Golden Force

The likely pace angle in the race has been in good form since racing resumed in June, winning 3 of his 8 starts. He’s 10lbs higher than his defeat to Lalania in June which is a race that worked out extremely well with the winner going up 16lbs in the ratings since then, that 10lb rise isn’t guaranteed to find him out based on that run.

His good form since June could be down to the change of headgear to a visor, which he continues to race in here. He’s also seemed particularly well suited to Wolverhampton, producing form figures of 131 there (the 3^rd was a close third, beaten less than a length). On polytrack however his form figures have been 499376. He failed to beat a runner home when sent off 11/4 on his only previous run at Lingfield and that would be a concern. The form of the Charlie Fellowes yard would also be a slight concern. He’s not had a winner since Golden Force won a month ago, that run spans 18 runners, 8 of which were shorter than 5/1 so better runs would clearly have been expected for many of those.

Masked Identity

Masked Identity was behind Golden Force on his last two runs at Wolverhampton, beaten 1.75 lengths and 3 lengths respectively. He was unsuited by a slow gallop when beaten 3 lengths and although only 2lbs better off now, he does have claims of turning that form around given question marks over Golden Force’s suitability to this track.

Masked Identity has his own question marks here though. He’s raced 12 times on the all weather, producing 2 wins and 6 top 3 finishes but he’s yet to race at Lingfield. He’s run well in defeat at Chelmsford on several occasions though. His latest when a staying on 3^rd over a furlong shorter having met trouble in running and he also finished 3^rd last time he raced at a mile there, behind two subsequent winners when rated 3lbs higher. He’s raced at 4 all weather courses and finished at least 2^nd at all of them so Lingfield shouldn’t be a worry. He’s won off a 1lb lower mark in the past and although he might be vulnerable for win purposes, he’s well capable of running well.

Lethal Lunch

Some serious questions to answer for this runner. On his stable debut, last time out, he was dropped into claiming company and despite being sent off a 5/4 chance he was beaten 10 lengths. He hasn’t shown anything since finishing 6^th in the Wokingham in June and this is his first run over a mile so there are so many reasons he could run poorly. He has won at Lingfield, and is one of those speedy types that could do well if held up over this trip, but his current well being has to be taken on trust and stall 1 is potentially a disadvantage too. One to keep an eye on in the market though.

Atheeb

Surprising to see this runner available at 8/1 in the very early betting. He won over course and distance on his penultimate outing in a race that worked out well. The 2^nd and 3^rd have both won off higher marks and there were several other winners in behind. He’s 5lbs higher but he won that race cosily and beat other well handicapped runners so is certainly still of interest off 85.

That was his only run as a 3yo. Presumably he had problems and he was later sold, reappearing as a runner for George Boughey earlier this month. He was 6^th, beaten almost 5 lengths, so certainly needs to improve on that bare form but there are reasons to think he will. Firstly that looked a really strong race and he probably chased too fast a pace (the pace setters finished 9^th and 11^th).

There is also the fact he was having his first start in 223 days for a new trainer. George Boughey has inherited 25 runners from other yards in the past 5 years and not one of those 25 runners has won first time for him. A huge 18 of those were single figure prices and 10 were shorter than 5/1 so his horses clearly don’t run well first time when joining from other yards.

Now what is really interesting is 22 of those 25 runners have had more than one run for Boughey and 9 were successful on one of their next two outings so they clearly come on for that first run.

Rossa Ryan has only ridden for the yard on three occasions in the past 5 years and he’s produced form figures of 133.

There is obviously some risk involved given he does need to come on for that last run but the evidence suggests he will, both based on the above data and also the fact that he was a 6/1 shot early for his last race and went off at 12/1.

Mohareb

Mohareb outran his odds two weeks over course and distance when 3^rd in a class 2 handicap. That run merits plenty of respect but the winner won by 3.5 lengths and it’s worth noting the 2^nd favourite and joint 4^th favourites were both below par that day so finishing 3^rd might not be the achievement it first seemed.

His record here at Lingfield over 7f or a mile reads 133 and he’d be more than capable of finishing around 3^rd or 4^th here but that doesn’t make him of betting interest in this contest.

Tadleel

Along with Lethal Lunch he’ll be looking to improve the record of low drawn runners in this. He has been successful over 7f in his career but 7f around Lingfield looks too sharp a test so his defeat last time out here over shorter is forgiveable, for all he was definitely below par having failed to beat a runner home. He was beaten half that distance on his previous run against a pace bias at Chelmsford off a 144 day break so that Lingfield run was definitely a step backwards.

He was competitive over this distance in class 2 handicaps at York in the summer off this sort of mark so he probably doesn’t deserve to be as big as 16/1 early but he clearly needs to bounce back from that lesser effort last time out. That was his only run at Lingfield so perhaps it’s a case of the course not suiting. He’s best watched here but it would be no surprise if he won over a mile in the near future.

Verdict

Masked Identity is capable of running well in this and is probably more interesting than Golden Force due to the latter possibly being better suited by tapeta than polytrack. Golden Force will be one of the better positioned runners though.

Catch My Breath and Atheeb both bring 100% c&d records into this race. Catch My Breath seems really well suited to this course so is respected and he should run well but he’s of much less interest at short odds given he’s facing much better horses here than he previously has done.

Atheeb on the other hand has beaten progressive, well handicapped horses over course and distance and seems to have far more scope to be better than his current mark. The angle with the progression of Boughey new recruits from first run to subsequent runs is a very interesting one and is more than enough to help me favour Atheeb for this contest.

The selection will hopefully track Golden Force early and get first run on the rest of the field going into the straight. Given there is a chance he doesn't improve from last time you'd probably want to go win only even if there were three places on offer so with two places on offer for each way bets it's even easier to decide to back him win only.

Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 30th Jan 2021

29 January 2021/in Trends/by Andy Newton

The bad news is the Cheltenham Trials Day fixture, that was due to be staged this Saturday, has been called off due to a waterlogged track.

The ITV cameras are, however, heading to Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive SkyBet Chase – a race the Alan King yard have won in two of the last four seasons.

As always, we got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

2.05 - Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

10/11 – Had won over this trip before
10/11 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Aged 8 or younger
9/11 – Won last time out
8/11 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/11 - Winning favourites
5/11 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
5/11 – Irish bred
2/11 - Trained by Philip Kirby

2020 Winner: LADY BUTTONS (P Kirby) 6/4 jfav

2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV

11/11 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
9/11 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/11 – Won last time out
7/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/11 – Winning favourite
2/11 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
8 of the last 9 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old

2020 Winner: RAMSES DE TEILLEE (D Pipe) 6/1

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV

14/15 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
12/15 – Carried 11-2 or less
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
12/15 – Officially rated 130 or higher
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 9/1

Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Stats:
4 of the last 15 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
5 of the last 15 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

2020 Winner: Ok CORRAL (N Henderson) 9/1

Cheltenham Trials Day Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV) -

**CANCELLED DUE TO A WATERLOGGED TRACK**

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RacingTV

15/17 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
14/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
10/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
10/17 – French bred (including last 8 winners)
9/17 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
8/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/17 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil 2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
5/17 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
4/17 – Trained by Alan King
4/17 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
3/17 – Won by a German bred horse
3/17 – Won by an Irish bred horse
Nicky Henderson has trained 4 of the last 8 winners
3 of the last 4 winners have been owned by JP McManus

2020 Winner: GALAHAD QUEST (N Williams) 6/1

13.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RacingTV

17/17 – Aged 8 or younger
16/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018, Simply The Betts 2020, Brown Advisory and Merribelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase)
15/17 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
15/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Finished either 1^st or 2^nd last time out
14/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
13/17 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
13/17 – Rated 128 or higher
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/17 – Carried 11-2 or more
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/17 – French bred
3/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/17 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/17 – Winning favourites (none in the last 11 runnings)

2020 Winner: SIMPLY THE BETTS (H Whittington) 11/2

1.50 – Paddy Power Millionaire Trophy Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV

15/17 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
15/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
15/17 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
15/17 – Rated 130 or higher
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
12/17 – Aged 8 or older
12/17 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
12/17 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
12/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
10/17 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Carried 10-7 or less
6/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Won by the Hobbs yard

2020 Winner: CEPAGE (V Williams) 8/1

2.25 – Paddy Power ’45 Sleeps To Cheltenham’ Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV

2020 Winner: SANTINI (N Henderson) 13/8

3.00 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y ITV4

15/15 – Placed 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
14/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
13/15 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
13/15 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
12/15 – Favourites placed
12/15 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
12/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
12/15 – Won their latest race
11/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
10/15 – Priced 4/1 or shorter
8/15 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
5/15 – Favourites that won
4/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/15 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/15 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

2020 Winner: HARRY SENIOR (C Tizzard) 4/1

3.35 – Paddy Power Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

2020 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) 4/6 fav

4.10 – SSS Super Alloys Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Soft 2m1f RacingTV

16/16 – Rated 120 or higher
15/16 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
14/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
13/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
12/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Placed 1^st or 2^nd last time out
8/16 – Irish bred
7/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/16 – French bred
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/16 – Trained by Chris Gordon
2/16 – Trained by Martin Keighley
9 of the last 10 winners aged 7 or younger
11 of the last 12 winners carried 10-12 or less in weight

2020 Winner: BACK ON THE LASH (M Keighley) 13/2

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Sat TV Trends: 23rd Jan 2021

23 January 2021/in Trends/by Andy Newton

It’s off to Haydock, Ascot and Taunton this Saturday for the LIVE ITV action.

At Ascot, the Grade One Clarence House Chase (3.35) is their feature contest – a race the classy Defi Du Seuil landed 12 months ago.

Then at Haydock, the Peter Marsh Chase (2.40) is their showcase race – a prize that trainer Sue Smith has won five times in the last 17 years.

While, a big day at Taunton too with the ITV cameras heading there to show their Weatherbys Portman Cup (2.15) - a race the Paul Nicholls-trained Yala Enki won 12 months ago.

So, like all big race days, we’ve got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle – just these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles based on past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.15 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

11/11 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
10/11 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
10/11 – From the top 4 in the betting
10/11 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
8/11 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/11 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (4) in their last race
7/11 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – Winning Favourites
4/11 – French bred
4/11 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/11 - Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/11 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Magic Light won the race in 2019 and 2020

1.50 – Matchbook Better Way To Bet Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4

11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/13 – Officially rated 139 or higher
10/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
9/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/13 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – French bred
6/13 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3^rd)
6/13 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/13 – Won their last race
6/13 – Aged 6 years-old
6/13 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/13 – Trained by David Pipe
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/13 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3^rd)
2/13 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/13 – Favourites (1 co)
Thomas Darby (8/1) won the race in 2020
Ballymoy (4/1) won the race in 2019

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

13/14 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
12/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Either French (5) or Irish (7) bred
11/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
11/14 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
9/14 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
6/14 – Winning distance - 6 lengths or further
5/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 6 runnings)
3/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/14 – Winning Favourites
Domaine De L’Isle (5/1) won the race in 2020

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

3.35 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
15/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
11/17 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
10/17 – Favourites that won
9/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (28 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old

The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 3/1

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
14/14 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Winning Favourites
6/14 – Had raced at Haydock previously
4/14 - Ran at Haydock last time out
4/14 – French bred
3/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/14– Trained by Venetia Williams
2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
Stolen Silver (9/2) won the race in 2020

Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

2.40 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

17/17 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
16/17 – Aged 8 or older
16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
15/17 – Had run within the last 36 days
12/17 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
12/17 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Won at Haydock previously
12/17 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/17 – Favourites unplaced
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
9/17 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/17 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/17 – Won over fences at Haydock before
7/17 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/17 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/17 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
6/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – Trained by Sue Smith
4/17 – Ridden by Danny Cook
2/17 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/17 – Won their last race
2/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1

3.15 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/15 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
15/15 – Favourites placed in the top 3
13/15 - From the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Finished in the top three in their last race
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
12/15 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
12/15 – Officially Rated 150 or higher
11/15 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
11/15 – Either French (3) or Irish (8) bred
11/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (7) last time out
8/15 – Aged 7 or younger
8/15 – Winning Favourites
4/15 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/15 – Won their last race
1/15 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
Ballyandy (5/2) won this race in 2020

Taunton Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.10 – Weatherbys Portman Cup Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m4 1/2f ITV4

2 previous runnings
Yala Enki (11/10 fav) won the race in 2020
Trainers Paul Nicholls and Colin Tizzard have won the race before
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 50% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Bryony Frost has a 27% record riding over fences at the track

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Course Form Could Prove Crucial In Tough Ascot Handicap

22 January 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

With Haydock’s card still in doubt we head to Ascot for Saturday’s preview, specifically the bet365 Handicap Chase which will be run at 3pm. The race will be shown on ITV4 and looks a fiendishly difficult puzzle to solve but as usual the aim of this preview will be to shed some light on possible angles using the brilliant form tools on offer with Geegeez Gold.

Pace

As usual we begin with pace to find what run style might be best suited to this contest here.

The Pace Analyser shows us that this sort of distance at Ascot on the chase course often most suits those who race prominently. We don’t have a huge amount of data here admittedly but the win percentage and place percentage figures speak massively in favour of prominent racers and from just 10 races prominent runners have produced a huge Win PL of 62.5 and an IV of 2.44.

Front runners are next best according to the data we have ahead of mid division and then hold up performers.

If we narrow things down further to races run only on soft or heavy ground we lose some of our data so I’ve included slightly smaller fields too to add some more data in. In total we are looking at seven races and five of those have been won by prominent racers. Prominent racers have also provided twice as many placed finishers as any other running style. Front runners and prominent racers combined have produced 60% of the placed horses from less than 50% of the runners.

Let’s have a look at the pace map for this race:

There could be a contested pace here with Colorado Doc, Bennys King and Dashel Drasher all likely to be keen to get on with things. Of that trio Bennys King is the only one who has proven he can dominate and win in big fields at this kind of level.

Prominent racers were most favoured by the course pace analysis and Young Wolf, Espoir De Guye and Good Boy Bobby seem most likely to fill those prominent positions just off the pace.

Instant Expert

Instant Expert is always extremely useful in races of this nature. Let’s first take a look at the place data across all codes:

Now the win data, only for chases:

Both are sorted by course record as I always like proven right handed form at right handed courses over jumps, especially course form.

Good Boy Bobby and Jerrysback seem most reliable in this sort of going, the former has extensive experience in soft or heavy ground and seems guaranteed to go through it with few problems. The runners with the biggest going questions marks are relatively unconsidered in the betting it seems.

Plenty of runners have a decent record of at least placing in class 2 races. Espoir De Guye has won both his chases in class 2 company whilst Dashel Drasher and Acting Lass are both 2 from 3 in class 2 races. Good Boy Bobby may have failed to win in both his class 2 chases but he was runner up in both contests so shouldn’t be judged harshly.

Bennys King and Dashel Drasher both have a 100% record of placing at Ascot whilst Espoir De Guye and Acting Lass are 2 from 3 and 2 from 4 respectively in terms of placing. There are six course chase winners in the field. Espoir De Guye has 2 wins from 3 runs here with Dashel Drasher the only horse showing off a 100% win record over these fences.

Good Boy Bobby has not yet raced here which can’t be held against him but what does stand out as a worry is his failure to win in four runs at this kind of trip.

It was previously mentioned that Benny’s King has proven he can dominate big fields, he has won two of his three races in this sort of field size whilst Espoir De Guye is one from two.

So according to Instant Expert Espoir De Guye, Dashel Drasher are potentially amongst the most solid contenders, for all Dashel Drasher is unproven in big fields, with Gold Old Bobby having a fair few question marks hanging over him for one that is so well fancied in the betting.

Trainers

With Ascot such a prestigious track it could be interesting to see how each of the trainers involved here perform at the course. For this we can use the Query Tool.

Sean Curran comes out on top in terms of course IV from the past five years but with just two runners in that time we can’t draw too many conclusions. That’s certainly not a negative for the chances of Domaine De L’Isle though.

Jeremy Scott has also had limited qualifying runners from two from seven is a very good strike rate and that would be a another plus for Dashel Drasher.

Of the trainers with much more experience here over the past five years Harry Fry, Paul Nicholls, Venetia Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Philip Hobbs all have more than their fair share of winners whilst the records of Jonjo O’Neill, Brian Ellison and Philip Kirby are less than impressive, although the latter two trainers have only had limited runners here.

Jockeys

Going can have an effect on jockey performance so let’s take a look at how these jockeys have performed here at Ascot on soft or heavy ground over the past five years:

Matt Griffiths, jockey for Dashel Drasher, has only had one ride here on soft or heavy but it was a victorious one and it would be quite remarkable if he could make it two from two here. Brian Hughes and Harry Skelton, who ride Windsor Avenue and Bennys King respectively, both have more experience and strong records here on testing ground.

The data suggests Harry Cobden, Sean Bowen and Daryl Jacob underperform at Ascot in soft or heavy ground so that is possibly a negative against the chances of Capeland, Acting Lass and Good Boy Bobby.

Verdict

Good Boy Bobby does have some questions to answer but he certainly brings strong form into this. His Cheltenham run a month ago, when 4^th, has been working out nicely with three subsequent winners in behind and the winner going on to finish a decent 3^rd next time. He’s short enough in the betting though so happy enough to leave him alone.

Bennys King is well proven around here and for him it’s mainly a question over whether he’s still well enough handicapped to win a race like this. He should run well but could be slightly vulnerable for win purposes.

Dashel Drasher has lots going for him and is two from two at Ascot over fences and hurdles. Ability to run well in bigger fields can be overlooked in races like this and he wasn’t at his best in bigger fields earlier in his career and much of his best form has come in smaller fields so he could be worth opposing here.

Espoir De Guye’s name kept popping up in Instant Expert as a solid contender and he represents a trainer that does pretty well here for a jockey that does pretty well here in testing conditions. He’s still lightly raced, proven at Ascot and should be well enough placed. He clearly didn’t stay 3m on his last run and a return to this trip will suit (he wouldn’t mind dropping even further in trip in all likelihood). He’s a fair enough price for an each way punt in what looks a really tricky race.

Lingfield May Bring Out The Best In Intuitive In Mile Handicap

15 January 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

With so many national hunt meetings being lost to the weather at the moment it seems best to play it safe this weekend with an all weather preview. Fortunately there is a good card at Lingfield including a class 2 handicap over a mile and that is going to be the subject of this preview.

Pace

It’s typically an advantage to be nearer the pace at most courses and that’s certainly the case over this course and distance in this kind of field size.

Leaders at Lingfield over a mile have been profitable to follow blind, producing a WIN PL of 38.22. Win percentage, place percentage and IV all steadily drop off the further back in the field you go which is a clear sign that the nearer you are to the pace here the better.

Although hold up horses have a poor record here with a win percentage of 10.1% and a place percentage of 30.01%, in terms of bare figures they provide almost as many winners as any other run style and more places than any other run style (from more runners admittedly). So although seemingly disadvantaged by the course, the frame will often contain at least one or two hold up performers. There are certain hold up horses that are particularly suited to Lingfield, those speedy ones with a great turn of foot, as opposed to the grinders that prefer big fields and long straights. If you can distinguish between the two you can find the better bets amongst those likely to be ridden patiently.

Just as important as the course pace characteristics is the pace of the individual race.

This certainly shouldn’t be run at a crawl with the likes of Papa Stour and Corazon Espinado in the field. The pair were both ridden with a little more restraint last time out but had led on their previous three racecourse appearances.

Fox Power has led in the past but not for over a year. He is consistently ridden handily these days and a repeat of those tactics looks likely.

Crownthorpe and Intuitive look likely to be at the rear of the field early with both tending to held up in the majority of their races.

Draw

I studied some Lingfield one mile handicaps earlier in the all weather season and came to the conclusion there was no strict draw bias over this distance. In 8 runner fields, according to PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten), there is a very slight disadvantage to the middle draws and seemingly an even smaller advantage with those that break from the higher stalls, despite those runners having to track across to the rail before the bend.

The win percentages suggest low is slightly better than high (middle still at a slight disadvantage) whilst the place percentages, which give us more data than the win percentages, increase slightly the higher you are drawn.

Overall there is very little in it and if there is a draw bias, it is negligible.

Pace and Draw Combination

Just because there is no strict draw bias it doesn’t mean that certain run styles aren’t advantaged or disadvantaged by the draw. What is a good draw for some run styles can often be a disadvantage for others.

The above tells us that the draw doesn’t make much difference for front runners, prominent racers or even hold up performers but it does make a lot of difference for those that race in mid division. It could just be a fluke of data (although we have a decent sample size here using PRB) and low drawn mid division horses seem to have a good record with a PRB of 0.57 whereas high drawn mid division has a PRB of just 0.38. It is probably the case that high drawn runners are able to get closer to the rail with other run styles but are forced to take a wider course and cover more ground if they are both wide drawn and settle in mid division.

The Runners

With just 8 runners set to go to post we can have a good look at the chances of each runner. Here they are in order of their early odds, from most fancied to least fancied.

Intuitive

This is probably the horse the race revolves around. He’s looked a bit of an all weather specialist to date with defeats on all four of his turf starts but a record of 11321133 on UK all weather surfaces (was also unplaced on dirt in Dubai).

Those form figures look even more impressive when you look at the defeats. The first two came just behind Alkaraama who has since rated 17lbs and 14lbs higher than those two runs. The most recent defeats came behind the progressive Ghlayoon when Intuitive was poorly placed and also behind the hat trick completing Misty Grey. What makes that last performance look all the better is that Intuitive was once again poorly placed but ran on well into 3^rd after having to be switched and the 2^nd, 4^th and 8^th from that race have all come out and won since.

There is no doubt that Intuitive remains a well handicapped horse but this will be his first run at a mile and simply staying on late over 7f isn’t enough to prove that this trip will suit. The horse’s sire, Haatef, has a win strike rate of 9.69% with all his flat runners and that drops only slightly to 8.51% over this mile trip. The dam was a 7.5f winner and the only other offspring from her has run well as a 2yo over 7f so there are plenty of pointers that suggests this mile trip should be within his reach, especially with Lingfield being a speed favouring track.

Fox Power

A very brief look at Fox Power’s form figures over the past year or two might not suggest he has a favourite’s chance in this but digging deeper shows he’s probably a well handicapped horse.

He hasn’t won since taking a listed contest at Newcastle in April 2019 but he’s clearly had a couple of issues since and seems to be working his way back to form again. After that listed win he was off the track for 237 days before finishing a 1.5 lengths 4^th at Chelmsford off a mark of 100. He had the run of the race that day but it was a respectable effort.

Between that run and March he would race three more times, running okay in defeat each time but not looking like a winner waiting to happen off a mark of 99 or 100.

He would then spend another 102 days off the track before reappearing in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, a race in which he was well beaten. He was then well beaten again twice over 10f on turf before finishing 4^th off a mark of 94 over the extended 9f at Wolverhampton. The 2^nd and 3^rd have both won off higher marks since then and Fox Power was closer to the pace than ideal that day so he’s not badly handicapped now off 93.

The main problem for Fox Power may be the surface. On turf he has failed to win in seven attempts, on polytrack he has failed to place in two runs whilst on tapeta his form figures are 131244. His only run at Lingfield was at 7f and although he was only beaten just 2.25 lengths he was last of six runners having gone through the race well but finding disappointingly little. He’s unlikely to run terribly but he looks a better horse on tapeta and could be much more interesting in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton in a couple of months’ time (a race in which he was 4^th off 6lbs higher last year) rather than this.

Corazon Espinado

A change to slightly more patient tactics and a drop in class seemed to pay dividends last time out when winning a class 5 handicap by 5 lengths. He won a class 3 handicap a year ago off 85 so isn’t necessarily out of it here off 87 but this is likely to be much tougher off a career high mark (he’s been beaten on all six runs off 86 or 87). He is previously proven over this distance but with this being a furlong further than last time, three classes higher and his mark being 9lbs higher he’s no guarantee to run to the same level again.

A major positive for the horse is his record when running within 10 days of his previous run. He’s won three from four in those circumstances and on that basis should be considered at least very competitive here, for all he might not be handicapped to win.

Crownthorpe

A last time out winner at Southwell and at his best on soft ground or on the all weather. His latest win was off 90 and he’s won off 91 in the past but he’s been beaten in all seven runs off 92 or higher.

The surface is clearly very important to this horse and it was no great surprise that he took to Southwell’s fibresand last time out given his liking for deep ground. Ignoring a run at Newcastle where his jockey fell off exiting the stalls, his all weather form figures now read 332131. However his two biggest losses, distance wise, have come in his two starts at Lingfield where he has finished 3^rd twice in fields of seven and five (beaten 3.25 lengths or further in both races).

As previously mentioned Lingfield can suit those turn of foot horses rather than grinders and Crownthorpe may be a bit more of a grinder, less suited to Lingfield than other venues. He’s not terribly handicapped but this course and handicap mark may well catch him out with third or fourth place seeming most likely here.

Lord Rapscallion

One of two here for Stuart Williams and perhaps surprising that he is slightly more favoured early than his stablemate Papa Stour.

Lord Rapscallion will be having just his second start for Williams having moved from Johnny Murtagh in November. On his stable debut he ran a respectable 4^th in a Kempton listed contest at 50/1, although given the distances he was beaten by horses rated 105, 109 and 104 he didn’t look to run beyond his mark of 102. He was 2^nd in Ireland in a competitive 7f handicap in September off 101 but it's worth noting that the majority of his best runs during the flat season (where he rose 14lbs in the ratings) were under a strong partnership with rider Nikita Kane who had a huge claim. He’s probably never run to a three figure rating for any other jockey and without a claim here he could be vulnerable, for all he has the talents of Cieren Fallon on board.

Papa Stour

Papa Stour is the main pace angle here and he’s seemingly a bit better on polytrack than he is on tapeta (last four runs on polytrack have produced form figures of 1112, last four runs on tapeta have produced form figures of 6628) so Lingfield may well suit him on his debut here. He is probably at his very best around Chelmsford though which suits his front running style extremely well.

His recent form has been strong. He won three starts ago at Kempton off a 3lb lower mark, beating a next time out winner in Diocles Of Rome, so he’s not handicapped out of this off 91. He’s probably vulnerable to something a bit more progressive but there is absolutely no reason why he shouldn’t run very well, especially if Corazon Espinado allows him an uncontested lead.

Mohareb

Possibly equally good at 6f and 7f which does raise some question marks over the suitability of 1m on just his 2^nd attempt at the distance (previous go was his 2^nd start on a racecourse when finishing 4^th in a novice race). He was a couple of lengths ahead of Intuitive behind Ghalyoon at Chelmsford in November and is now 1lb better off but Mohareb was seen to much better effect that day than Intuitive and isn’t as likely to back that up over the extra distance, for all there are stamina doubts over Intuitive too.

He was below par last time out here at Lingfield and although he is probably in with a small chance here, and may well out run his odds, it would be a surprise if he’s well enough handicapped or strong enough in the finish over this trip to get his head in front.

Mission Bay

Difficult to weigh up on his debut for Marco Botti having previously raced in Italy. A mark of 100 does seem fairly stiff for what he has recently achieved and he’s probably going to need to drop a bit in the handicap before being competitive.

Verdict

Given the doubts about Fox Power and Crownthorpe on this surface I’m inclined to think the win shortlist should be Intuitive, Corazon Espinado and Papa Stour. I don’t think the latter is well enough handicapped to win this but his record with a very recent run is worrying if looking to oppose him.

Intuitive and Papa Stour definitely look better handicapped and if going off the pace data you’d be much more inclined to back Papa Stour, who is likely to lead, rather than Intuitive who is likely to be settled in last. However Intuitive looks to have the turn of foot that will make him ideally suited to this course and he’s likely to be a fast finisher in the straight. He’s unproven both at Lingfield and at a mile so is risky at the price but there is more upside to this one than anything else and two and those question marks may well still turn out to be positives rather than negatives. Intuitive therefore gets the nod for a small bet ahead of Papa Stour who still has another handicap in him and Corazon Espinado who is probably best of those who have raced at Lingfield before.

Sat TV Trends: 16th Jan 2021

15 January 2021/in Trends/by Andy Newton

Probably not the best weekend of ITV action of the year, but we’ve still some nice jumping cards to look forward to from Warwick and Market Rasen, with seven races being shown LIVE on ITV across the two tracks.

The clear highlight on the day is the Grade 3 McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (3.00) – a race trainer Paul Nicholls has won three times since 2006.

As normal, we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – McCoy Contractors Hampton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

13/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
13/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/13 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
11/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
11/13 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
10/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
9/13 – Aged 7 years-old
9/13 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/13 – Winning favourites
Two For Gold (3/1) won the race in 2020

2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
14/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/14 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
13/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Aged 5 years-old
6/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Placed favourites
3/14 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune, Willoughby Court, 2017 Neptune)
2/14 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 6)
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 8)
Mossy Fen (7/2) won the race in 2020

3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

15/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
11/15 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
11/15 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
11/15 – Officially rated between 129-140
11/15 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
10/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
9/15 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
9/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/15 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/15 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Favourites placed
6/15 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
Kimberlite Candy (9/2) won the race in 2020
Just one winning favourite in the last 15 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

15/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
14/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
12/15 – Officially rated between 126-142
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/15 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Placed favourites
6/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/15 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/15 – Winning favourites
Silver Sheen (7/1) won the race in 2020
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey

Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – MansionBet Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Stuart Edmunds has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track

2.40 – MansionBet’s Bet 10 Get 20 Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m7f ITV4

Trainer Colin Tizzard has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 18% record riding over hurdles at the track

3.15 – Alan Swinbank mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (4-6yo) 2m 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Willie Mullins, Murty McGrath and Emma Lavelle are previous winners of the race
One winning favourite
All three previous winners aged 4 or 5
Two of the last three winners carried 10st 3lbs
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 19% record with his NH Flat runners at the track

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Sat TV Trends: 13th Feb 2021

12 January 2021/in Trends/by Andy Newton

We’ve plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this weekend with cracking cards at both Newbury and Warwick. The Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) are three of the feature races at Newbury, while at Warwick the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices' Chase gives us a chance to see some potential stars of the future.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends and top tips.

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 - Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4

14/15 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
11/15 – Aged 7 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/15 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
10/15 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Aged 7 years-old
6/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/15 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/15 – French bred
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Raced at Haydock last time out

2.25 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

15/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Rated 150+
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/17 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
10/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/17 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/17 – Returned a double-figure price
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1

3.00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4

15/15 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Placed favourites
13/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
11/15 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (5 winners)
6/15 – French bred
6/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/15 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Altior has won the last three renewals (2017, 2018 & 2020)

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18 - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger
Pic D’Orhy (33/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Close Brothers Warwick Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
6/6 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Favourites placed 1^st or 2^nd
4/6 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
4/6 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/6 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/6 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Irish bred
2/6 – Had run at Warwick before
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Indefatigable (7/2 cfav) won the race in 2020

2.40 – Agetur UK Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
8/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Won over 2m fences before
7/9 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
7/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Rated between 137-147
5/9 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 5 winners have been 6 year-olds
Rouge Vif (7/2) won the race in 2020

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown

3.15 – Paddy Power Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Irish (4) or French (6) bred
9/10 – Aged 9 or younger
9/10 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top three
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Unplaced in their last race
7/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/10 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Clondaw Castle (11/2) won the race in 2020

It’s Christmas Time In Open Looking Welsh Grand National

8 January 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

The rescheduled Welsh Grand National is without a doubt the feature race for Saturday and whilst many will be filing it under ‘impossible’ I’ll hopefully be able to shed some light on some angles using the brilliant Geegeez Gold as usual.

Pace

There has been no shortage of heavy ground Welsh Grand Nationals in the past so let’s see where the advantage tends to be with regards to pace.

It’s often the case that prominent racers can be favoured over hold up performers over shorter trips but even over this marathon trip it is still an advantage to be nearer the pace.

Win data is fairly limited here but there has been a strong advantage towards those that race prominently with an 11.36% win ratio, clear of front runners who have a 6.67%. Mid division and hold up have win ratios of just 4.29% and 2.67% respectively.

There is much more data in the place strike rates and this time around front runners lead the way in more way than one, they have a place strike rate of 33.33% which is marginally more impressive than prominent racers who have a place strike rate of 31.82%. These ratios drop off dramatically the further back in the field you go with mid division providing just 21.43% and hold ups are just 8%.

As far as market consideration goes, backing prominent racers blind for win purposes has been profitable whilst backing both prominent racers and those that race in mid division has been very profitable from an each way perspective whilst front runners are also slightly in profit. Hold up performers are in a big loss for both win and each way purposes.

With this data in mind the heat map for this race should make interesting reading with those that race just off the pace likely to be seen to best effect.

A possible contested pace here but the jockeys will surely be sensible in this ground and avoid setting a suicidal gallop. Early favourite Secret Reprieve seems likely to be a bit further back than ideal but racing in mid division isn’t a huge disadvantage. Dominatuer is relatively well fancied from the hold up performers and granted the usual riding tactics are employed he could struggle to even place, however he does enjoy Chepstow having won his last two races here.

The well fancied Springfield Fox is likely to take the field along and the top eight or so runners on the above pace map seem likely to be best placed as far as the course bias goes.

Instant Expert

With such a big field to weigh up and some extreme going and distances on offer here, Instant Expert is a great way to quickly scan through the field and to judge each runner’s suitability to conditions.

The place data is often the best indicator as to what should run well and what shouldn’t. Hurdle form that proves ability to handle this distance or going would also be relevant here so that’s included in the filter.

The going doesn’t look an obvious negative for most of this field although The Hollow Ginge and Vieux Lion Rouge do have questions to answer.

It makes sense to open up the distance range a little as races at similar trips are also relevant here. There is plenty of placed form at this sort of trip but The Two Amigos and Vieux Lion Rouge remain slight questions marks despite some placed form according to Instant Expert whilst Big River, Bobo Mac and Captain Drake certainly have questions to answer having tried this sort of trip before and failed.

We’re going to narrow things significantly here to look at the win data.

Now we are looking at just handicap chases to get the most relevant data. There is still plenty of strong heavy ground form on offer here and the course records of Dominateur and Ramses De Teillee are also noteworthy.

The Two Amigos and Christmas In April are the only runners to have won more than once in this distance range whilst big field handicap form is fairly thin on the ground with only three runners here recording wins. Even if you look at wins across all races and codes only four runners have a 16+ runner race win (Secret Reprieve is the additional runner to have won in a 16+ runner field having beaten 15 runners in a novice hurdle here at Chepstow previously).

Odds

You’d think such big field races that have a habit of being run in atrocious conditions would have plenty of shocks but picking the winner of this in recent years hasn’t been the challenge it could have been.

Eight of the last ten winners of this have started the race at 10/1 or shorter. Obviously we don’t know exactly which horses are going to go off at what prices at this stage but this is clearly a race where the form book stands up and the chances are one of those in the first six or seven in the betting are going to be triumphant once again.

The Formbook

So with this race being less of a lottery than it could be let’s delve more into the form.

It’s quite easy to see why Secret Reprieve is the warm favourite in this race. He carries a 4lb penalty for winning a course handicap by 12 lengths last time out (The Two Amigos was 2^nd). He’s lightly raced, open to more improvement and has won both his starts on heavy ground. He does have to prove himself over this trip though and his sire is just 2 from 42 at this distance so he’s short enough with those doubts in mind.

Springfield Fox was noted as being the likely front runner in this contest but he too has to prove himself over this sort of test. Rider Sean Bowen has a 21.88% strike rate here at Chepstow over the past five years and he’s produced a WIN PL of 45.25 so he should be relied upon to get the fractions right from the front but his stamina will be going into unchartered waters here.

Truckers Lodge hasn’t run since unseating his rider back in October and that is potentially a longer break than you’d want heading into this but surely Paul Nicholls knows what is right for the horse. He was 2^nd to Potters Corner in this a year ago off a similar break so there shouldn’t be any concern over the absence and there are certainly no question marks about the conditions. That race worked out well too but in helping frank that form with an 18 length victory in the Midlands Grand National in March he goes into this year’s race 17lbs higher so he’s going to need to be a much better horse this time around to defy that mark.

Christmas In April brings plenty of staying form into this and looks an interesting contender. He’s failed to win in two runs here but was a solid 2^nd just over a year ago when staying on well over half a mile shorter behind a subsequent winner (3^rd and 4^th also franked the form since). He won easily over this trip at Exeter in February on similar ground and is now only 7lbs higher so he looks to have a leading chance having finished a creditable 2^nd last time out (the 3^rd won next time out). There are probably better handicapped horses in this field but it’s all about finding the best handicapped horse IN THESE CONDITIONS and he is right up there.

Dominateur loves it here and shouldn’t be judged harshly on his defeat last time out when he had plenty to find with his two rivals at the weights. He’s been well beaten on his last three runs though so his current well being is a worry, as is his ability to make up plenty of ground over his rivals in this contest with prominent racers often favoured. He remains with potential but has many questions to answer, including stamina concerns.

Lord Du Mesnil ran okay at best over the Grand National fences at Aintree last time out but that run came over a mile shorter so isn’t the biggest concern. He has run at this trip before, in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, and he was a creditable 2^nd there. His previous run had come when 2^nd again in the Haydock Grand National trial on heavy ground so he has ticks for both the going and the distance here. It looks as though he’s been targeted at this all season so far with a run over hurdles blowing the cobwebs away followed by a run over a distance too short. His trainer has an IV of 2.01 in this distance range and he looks likely to outrun his odds.

The Two Amigos has plenty of ground to make up on Secret Reprieve based on their last meeting but he does have a 4lb swing and crucially an extra 7f to race over. We know he stays well enough as he was 5^th in this last year and that race worked out well so there was no disgrace in being beaten 10 lengths. However this year’s race could be just as strong and he runs off the same mark (8lbs higher than his last winning mark) so doesn’t look well enough handicapped to land this for all he could easily run into the places.

One place, and 6 lengths ahead of The Two Amigos in the last running of this race was Prime Venture and he’s only 4lbs higher so should be able to confirm that form everything else being equal. He was ridden a bit more patiently than the other placed runners and has seemingly been ridden a bit more prominently in a few races since so could be seen to even better effect this time around. A last time out win was his first over fences so could act as a confidence booster and he’s capable of going well.

Yala Enki was also placed last year which means the 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th from the previous renewal are all reopposing. He was ideally placed last time around but he too is only 4lbs higher again this year so must be in with some sort of chance. He’s the top weight here which won’t be ideal in stamina sapping conditions and is unlikely to get his own way out in front so a place might be the best thing to aim for again.

Ramses De Teillee bumped into Yala Enki at Cheltenham in November over 3f shorter and there was just a short head between the pair on that occasion and they are handicapped to finish together once again. The pair also met in this race in 2018 when they were 2^nd and 3^rd. Ramses De Teillee was 4 lengths ahead that day and is now only 4lbs worse off. It’s easy to see why he and Yala Enki are the same sort of price this time around but slight preference from the pair would be for Ramses De Teillee.

Verdict

It's not only a ten horse race but previous renewals have told us the winner is very likely to come from that group judging by the current market. There are many here that seem likely to run well and would probably appeal as place only bets but many of the solid contenders look far less convincing for win only purposes.

Lord Du Mesnil is very interesting and is presumably being campaigned around this and the Aintree Grand National this year. He’s worth covering as a saver each way but the main selection here is going to be Christmas In April who seems to tick pretty much all the necessary boxes and comes here in very good form with more to come.

Sat TV Trends: 9th Jan 2021

8 January 2021/in Trends/by Andy Newton

More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Wincanton, Kempton and Chepstow for a bumper day of LIVE action with 10 ITV races being shown!

At Kempton Park, the Lanzarote Hurdle is their main event – a race that trainer Nicky Henderson has won three times since 2013. Plus, they are also staging the Grade Two Relkeel Hurdle that was lost at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

Then at Wincanton, we’ve four LIVE races that include the rescheduled Paddy Power Dipper Novices’ Chase, that was called off at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

We’ve also got the 2020 Welsh Grand National and Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle to take in at Chepstow – two more races that we lost over the Christmas period due to the weather.

So, fingers crossed the weather is kind and, as normal, we are on-hand with all the key stats and trends for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.10 – Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV4

7/8 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/8 – Won no more than twice over fences before
6/8 – Had run at the track before (hurdles/chase)
6/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Irish bred
5/8 – Rated between 134 and 139
5/8 – Carried 11-6 or more in weight
4/8 – Ran at Ludlow (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by Amy Murphy
Erick Le Rouge won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 17/2

1.45 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Had run at the track before
6/8 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/8 – Placed favourites
5/8 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
5/8 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
2/8 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/8 – Winning favourites
Fingerontheswitch (15/2) won the race in 2020
Glen Forsa (11/4) won the race in 2019
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

2.20 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m5f ITV4

14/16 – Went on run in a race at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
14/16 – Won by either a French (5) or Irish (9) bred
14/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/16 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
10/16 – Had won at Cheltenham before
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Went onto run in the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season
7/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
Summerville Boy (10/1) won this race in 2020
Agrapart (16/1) won the race in 2017

Note: This race is normally staged at Cheltenham

2.55 – Ladbrokes Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
6/7 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
6/7 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Winning favourites
4/7 – Had won over fences at the track
Frodon won the race in 2020
Top Notch won the race in 2019
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2020
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014

3.30 – Ladbrokes Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

19/19 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
17/19 – Aged 7 or younger
17/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
14/19 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
14/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
13/19 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
13/19 – Irish (7) or French (6) bred
13/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Carried 10-11 or less
11/19 – Aged 6 years-old
9/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/19 - Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (38 runnings) 34 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 15/2

Wincanton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

2.05 - Paddy Power Dipper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

18/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
18/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Went onto run in a Cheltenham Festival race (1 winner)
15/18 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/18 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
13/18 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/18 – Had won over fences at 2m3f or further before
10/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Aged 7 years-old
7/18 – Returned 5/4 or shorter in the betting
7/18 – Ran at either Sandown or Cheltenham last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/18 – Went onto win the Arkle Chase (My Way De Solzen, 2007)

Note: This race is normally run at Cheltenham

2.35 – MansionBet’s Bet 10 Get 20 Handicap Chase Cl3 2m4f35y ITV4

8/8 – Aged 8 or older
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Won 2 or less time over fences
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/8 – Aged 8 or older
5/8 – Placed favourites
5/8 – Rated between 131 and 135
4/8 – Finished 4^th last time out
4/8 – Ran at Exeter (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/8 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/8 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/8 – Winning favourites
Gala Ball won this race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/2

3.45 – Mansionbet Faller Insurance Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-130) 1m 7 1/2f ITV4

Only 1 previous running
Trainer Colin Tizzard won the 2020 running with Molineaux
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 31% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Mulholland is just 3 from 39 with his chasers at the track

Chepstow Horse Racing Betting Trends (ATR/ITV4)

1.25 – Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cl1 (3yo) 2m ITV4

15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Placed 1^st or 2^nd last time out
14/16 – Won between 0-2 times previously
11/16 – French bred
9/16 – Won their last race
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Raced at the track previously
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/16 – Trained by Alan King

3.10 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

18/18 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
18/18 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/18 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
16/18 – Aged 9 or younger
16/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
13/18 – Aged 8 or younger
12/18 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
12/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
12/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – French bred
6/18 – Had run in the Welsh National before
5/18 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1

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Membership Login

Pace

Instant Expert

The Runners

Notachance

The Two Amigos

Enqarde

Sojourn

Lord Du Mesnil

Achille

Potter Legend

Ramses De Teillee

Perfect Candidate

Verdict

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.50 - Bateaux Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

2.25 – ‘My Oddsboost’ On Betfair Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

3.00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV

3.35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV)

2.05 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

2.40 – William Hill Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV)

3.18 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV

Pace

Draw

Pace And Draw Combination

The Runners

Stopnsearch

Convertible

Capla Crusader

Avorisk Et Perils

Amsby

Capriolette

Aztec Dreams

Bealach

Compass Point

Decompartmentalize

Verdict

Pace

Instant Expert

Stamina

Runners With Marathon Experience

Runners With Stamina To Prove

Verdict

Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y ITV4

1.50 – Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

2.20 – Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m RTV

2.55 – Virgin Bet Warriors Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m4f ITV4

3.30 – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV4

Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.58 – William Hill Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m

2.35 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 - bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y ITV4

3.45 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y ITV4

Arkle Chase - Shishkin to win by six lengths-plus (10/3 Skybet)

Queen Mother Champion Chase - Chacun Pour Soi to win by four lengths-plus (4/1 Skybet)

Pace

Draw

The Runners

Catch My Breath

Golden Force

Masked Identity

Lethal Lunch

Atheeb

Mohareb

Tadleel

Verdict

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

2.05 - Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV

Cheltenham Trials Day Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV) -

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RacingTV

13.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RacingTV

1.50 – Paddy Power Millionaire Trophy Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV

2.25 – Paddy Power ’45 Sleeps To Cheltenham’ Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV

3.00 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y ITV4