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Lingfield May Bring Out The Best In Intuitive In Mile Handicap

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With so many national hunt meetings being lost to the weather at the moment it seems best to play it safe this weekend with an all weather preview. Fortunately there is a good card at Lingfield including a class 2 handicap over a mile and that is going to be the subject of this preview.

Pace

It’s typically an advantage to be nearer the pace at most courses and that’s certainly the case over this course and distance in this kind of field size.

Leaders at Lingfield over a mile have been profitable to follow blind, producing a WIN PL of 38.22. Win percentage, place percentage and IV all steadily drop off the further back in the field you go which is a clear sign that the nearer you are to the pace here the better.

Although hold up horses have a poor record here with a win percentage of 10.1% and a place percentage of 30.01%, in terms of bare figures they provide almost as many winners as any other run style and more places than any other run style (from more runners admittedly). So although seemingly disadvantaged by the course, the frame will often contain at least one or two hold up performers. There are certain hold up horses that are particularly suited to Lingfield, those speedy ones with a great turn of foot, as opposed to the grinders that prefer big fields and long straights. If you can distinguish between the two you can find the better bets amongst those likely to be ridden patiently.

Just as important as the course pace characteristics is the pace of the individual race.

This certainly shouldn’t be run at a crawl with the likes of Papa Stour and Corazon Espinado in the field. The pair were both ridden with a little more restraint last time out but had led on their previous three racecourse appearances.

Fox Power has led in the past but not for over a year. He is consistently ridden handily these days and a repeat of those tactics looks likely.

Crownthorpe and Intuitive look likely to be at the rear of the field early with both tending to held up in the majority of their races.

Draw

I studied some Lingfield one mile handicaps earlier in the all weather season and came to the conclusion there was no strict draw bias over this distance. In 8 runner fields, according to PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten), there is a very slight disadvantage to the middle draws and seemingly an even smaller advantage with those that break from the higher stalls, despite those runners having to track across to the rail before the bend.

The win percentages suggest low is slightly better than high (middle still at a slight disadvantage) whilst the place percentages, which give us more data than the win percentages, increase slightly the higher you are drawn.

Overall there is very little in it and if there is a draw bias, it is negligible.

Pace and Draw Combination

Just because there is no strict draw bias it doesn’t mean that certain run styles aren’t advantaged or disadvantaged by the draw. What is a good draw for some run styles can often be a disadvantage for others.

The above tells us that the draw doesn’t make much difference for front runners, prominent racers or even hold up performers but it does make a lot of difference for those that race in mid division. It could just be a fluke of data (although we have a decent sample size here using PRB) and low drawn mid division horses seem to have a good record with a PRB of 0.57 whereas high drawn mid division has a PRB of just 0.38. It is probably the case that high drawn runners are able to get closer to the rail with other run styles but are forced to take a wider course and cover more ground if they are both wide drawn and settle in mid division.

The Runners

With just 8 runners set to go to post we can have a good look at the chances of each runner. Here they are in order of their early odds, from most fancied to least fancied.

Intuitive

This is probably the horse the race revolves around. He’s looked a bit of an all weather specialist to date with defeats on all four of his turf starts but a record of 11321133 on UK all weather surfaces (was also unplaced on dirt in Dubai).

Those form figures look even more impressive when you look at the defeats. The first two came just behind Alkaraama who has since rated 17lbs and 14lbs higher than those two runs. The most recent defeats came behind the progressive Ghlayoon when Intuitive was poorly placed and also behind the hat trick completing Misty Grey. What makes that last performance look all the better is that Intuitive was once again poorly placed but ran on well into 3rd after having to be switched and the 2nd, 4th and 8th from that race have all come out and won since.

There is no doubt that Intuitive remains a well handicapped horse but this will be his first run at a mile and simply staying on late over 7f isn’t enough to prove that this trip will suit. The horse’s sire, Haatef, has a win strike rate of 9.69% with all his flat runners and that drops only slightly to 8.51% over this mile trip. The dam was a 7.5f winner and the only other offspring from her has run well as a 2yo over 7f so there are plenty of pointers that suggests this mile trip should be within his reach, especially with Lingfield being a speed favouring track.

Fox Power

A very brief look at Fox Power’s form figures over the past year or two might not suggest he has a favourite’s chance in this but digging deeper shows he’s probably a well handicapped horse.

He hasn’t won since taking a listed contest at Newcastle in April 2019 but he’s clearly had a couple of issues since and seems to be working his way back to form again. After that listed win he was off the track for 237 days before finishing a 1.5 lengths 4th at Chelmsford off a mark of 100. He had the run of the race that day but it was a respectable effort.

Between that run and March he would race three more times, running okay in defeat each time but not looking like a winner waiting to happen off a mark of 99 or 100.

He would then spend another 102 days off the track before reappearing in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, a race in which he was well beaten. He was then well beaten again twice over 10f on turf before finishing 4th off a mark of 94 over the extended 9f at Wolverhampton. The 2nd and 3rd have both won off higher marks since then and Fox Power was closer to the pace than ideal that day so he’s not badly handicapped now off 93.

The main problem for Fox Power may be the surface. On turf he has failed to win in seven attempts, on polytrack he has failed to place in two runs whilst on tapeta his form figures are 131244. His only run at Lingfield was at 7f and although he was only beaten just 2.25 lengths he was last of six runners having gone through the race well but finding disappointingly little. He’s unlikely to run terribly but he looks a better horse on tapeta and could be much more interesting in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton in a couple of months’ time (a race in which he was 4th off 6lbs higher last year) rather than this.

Corazon Espinado

A change to slightly more patient tactics and a drop in class seemed to pay dividends last time out when winning a class 5 handicap by 5 lengths. He won a class 3 handicap a year ago off 85 so isn’t necessarily out of it here off 87 but this is likely to be much tougher off a career high mark (he’s been beaten on all six runs off 86 or 87). He is previously proven over this distance but with this being a furlong further than last time, three classes higher and his mark being 9lbs higher he’s no guarantee to run to the same level again.

A major positive for the horse is his record when running within 10 days of his previous run. He’s won three from four in those circumstances and on that basis should be considered at least very competitive here, for all he might not be handicapped to win.

Crownthorpe

A last time out winner at Southwell and at his best on soft ground or on the all weather. His latest win was off 90 and he’s won off 91 in the past but he’s been beaten in all seven runs off 92 or higher.

The surface is clearly very important to this horse and it was no great surprise that he took to Southwell’s fibresand last time out given his liking for deep ground. Ignoring a run at Newcastle where his jockey fell off exiting the stalls, his all weather form figures now read 332131. However his two biggest losses, distance wise, have come in his two starts at Lingfield where he has finished 3rd twice in fields of seven and five (beaten 3.25 lengths or further in both races).

As previously mentioned Lingfield can suit those turn of foot horses rather than grinders and Crownthorpe may be a bit more of a grinder, less suited to Lingfield than other venues. He’s not terribly handicapped but this course and handicap mark may well catch him out with third or fourth place seeming most likely here.

Lord Rapscallion

One of two here for Stuart Williams and perhaps surprising that he is slightly more favoured early than his stablemate Papa Stour.

Lord Rapscallion will be having just his second start for Williams having moved from Johnny Murtagh in November. On his stable debut he ran a respectable 4th in a Kempton listed contest at 50/1, although given the distances he was beaten by horses rated 105, 109 and 104 he didn’t look to run beyond his mark of 102. He was 2nd in Ireland in a competitive 7f handicap in September off 101 but it's worth noting that the majority of his best runs during the flat season (where he rose 14lbs in the ratings) were under a strong partnership with rider Nikita Kane who had a huge claim. He’s probably never run to a three figure rating for any other jockey and without a claim here he could be vulnerable, for all he has the talents of Cieren Fallon on board.

Papa Stour

Papa Stour is the main pace angle here and he’s seemingly a bit better on polytrack than he is on tapeta (last four runs on polytrack have produced form figures of 1112, last four runs on tapeta have produced form figures of 6628) so Lingfield may well suit him on his debut here. He is probably at his very best around Chelmsford though which suits his front running style extremely well.

His recent form has been strong. He won three starts ago at Kempton off a 3lb lower mark, beating a next time out winner in Diocles Of Rome, so he’s not handicapped out of this off 91. He’s probably vulnerable to something a bit more progressive but there is absolutely no reason why he shouldn’t run very well, especially if Corazon Espinado allows him an uncontested lead.

Mohareb

Possibly equally good at 6f and 7f which does raise some question marks over the suitability of 1m on just his 2nd attempt at the distance (previous go was his 2nd start on a racecourse when finishing 4th in a novice race). He was a couple of lengths ahead of Intuitive behind Ghalyoon at Chelmsford in November and is now 1lb better off but Mohareb was seen to much better effect that day than Intuitive and isn’t as likely to back that up over the extra distance, for all there are stamina doubts over Intuitive too.

He was below par last time out here at Lingfield and although he is probably in with a small chance here, and may well out run his odds, it would be a surprise if he’s well enough handicapped or strong enough in the finish over this trip to get his head in front.

Mission Bay

Difficult to weigh up on his debut for Marco Botti having previously raced in Italy. A mark of 100 does seem fairly stiff for what he has recently achieved and he’s probably going to need to drop a bit in the handicap before being competitive.

Verdict

Given the doubts about Fox Power and Crownthorpe on this surface I’m inclined to think the win shortlist should be Intuitive, Corazon Espinado and Papa Stour. I don’t think the latter is well enough handicapped to win this but his record with a very recent run is worrying if looking to oppose him.

Intuitive and Papa Stour definitely look better handicapped and if going off the pace data you’d be much more inclined to back Papa Stour, who is likely to lead, rather than Intuitive who is likely to be settled in last. However Intuitive looks to have the turn of foot that will make him ideally suited to this course and he’s likely to be a fast finisher in the straight. He’s unproven both at Lingfield and at a mile so is risky at the price but there is more upside to this one than anything else and two and those question marks may well still turn out to be positives rather than negatives. Intuitive therefore gets the nod for a small bet ahead of Papa Stour who still has another handicap in him and Corazon Espinado who is probably best of those who have raced at Lingfield before.

Sat TV Trends: 16th Jan 2021

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Probably not the best weekend of ITV action of the year, but we’ve still some nice jumping cards to look forward to from Warwick and Market Rasen, with seven races being shown LIVE on ITV across the two tracks.

The clear highlight on the day is the Grade 3 McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (3.00) – a race trainer Paul Nicholls has won three times since 2006.

As normal, we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – McCoy Contractors Hampton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

13/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
13/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/13 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
11/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
11/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
9/13 – Aged 7 years-old
9/13 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/13 – Winning favourites
Two For Gold (3/1) won the race in 2020

 

2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
14/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Aged 5 years-old
6/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Placed favourites
3/14 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune, Willoughby Court, 2017 Neptune)
2/14 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 6)
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 8)
Mossy Fen (7/2) won the race in 2020

 

3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

15/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
11/15 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
11/15 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
11/15 – Officially rated between 129-140
11/15 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
10/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
9/15 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
9/15 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/15 –  Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/15 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Favourites placed
6/15 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
Kimberlite Candy (9/2) won the race in 2020
Just one winning favourite in the last 15 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

 

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

15/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
14/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
12/15 – Officially rated between 126-142
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/15 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Placed favourites
6/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/15 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/15 – Winning favourites
Silver Sheen (7/1) won the race in 2020
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey

 

 

Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.05 – MansionBet Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Stuart Edmunds has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track

 

2.40 – MansionBet’s Bet 10 Get 20 Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m7f ITV4

Trainer Colin Tizzard has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 18% record riding over hurdles at the track

 

3.15 – Alan Swinbank mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (4-6yo) 2m 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Willie Mullins, Murty McGrath and Emma Lavelle are previous winners of the race
One winning favourite
All three previous winners aged 4 or 5
Two of the last three winners carried 10st 3lbs
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 19% record with his NH Flat runners at the track

 

 

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 13th Feb 2021

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We’ve plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this weekend with cracking cards at both Newbury and Warwick. The Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) are three of the feature races at Newbury, while at Warwick the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices' Chase gives us a chance to see some potential stars of the future.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends and top tips.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 - Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4

14/15 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
11/15 – Aged 7 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/15 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
10/15 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Aged 7 years-old
6/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/15 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/15 – French bred
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Raced at Haydock last time out

2.25 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

15/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Rated 150+
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/17 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
10/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/17 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/17 – Returned a double-figure price
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1

 

3.00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4

15/15 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Placed favourites
13/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
11/15 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (5 winners)
6/15 – French bred
6/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/15 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Altior has won the last three renewals (2017, 2018 & 2020)

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

 

 

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger
Pic D’Orhy (33/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1

 

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 – Close Brothers Warwick Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
6/6 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
4/6 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
4/6 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/6 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/6 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Irish bred
2/6 – Had run at Warwick before
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Indefatigable (7/2 cfav) won the race in 2020

 

2.40 – Agetur UK Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
8/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Won over 2m fences before
7/9 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
7/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Rated between 137-147
5/9 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 5 winners have been 6 year-olds
Rouge Vif (7/2) won the race in 2020

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown
 

3.15 – Paddy Power Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Irish (4) or French (6) bred
9/10 – Aged 9 or younger
9/10 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top three
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Unplaced in their last race
7/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/10 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Clondaw Castle (11/2) won the race in 2020

It’s Christmas Time In Open Looking Welsh Grand National

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The rescheduled Welsh Grand National is without a doubt the feature race for Saturday and whilst many will be filing it under ‘impossible’ I’ll hopefully be able to shed some light on some angles using the brilliant Geegeez Gold as usual.

Pace

There has been no shortage of heavy ground Welsh Grand Nationals in the past so let’s see where the advantage tends to be with regards to pace.

It’s often the case that prominent racers can be favoured over hold up performers over shorter trips but even over this marathon trip it is still an advantage to be nearer the pace.

Win data is fairly limited here but there has been a strong advantage towards those that race prominently with an 11.36% win ratio, clear of front runners who have a 6.67%. Mid division and hold up have win ratios of just 4.29% and 2.67% respectively.

There is much more data in the place strike rates and this time around front runners lead the way in more way than one, they have a place strike rate of 33.33% which is marginally more impressive than prominent racers who have a place strike rate of 31.82%. These ratios drop off dramatically the further back in the field you go with mid division providing just 21.43% and hold ups are just 8%.

As far as market consideration goes, backing prominent racers blind for win purposes has been profitable whilst backing both prominent racers and those that race in mid division has been very profitable from an each way perspective whilst front runners are also slightly in profit. Hold up performers are in a big loss for both win and each way purposes.

With this data in mind the heat map for this race should make interesting reading with those that race just off the pace likely to be seen to best effect.

A possible contested pace here but the jockeys will surely be sensible in this ground and avoid setting a suicidal gallop. Early favourite Secret Reprieve seems likely to be a bit further back than ideal but racing in mid division isn’t a huge disadvantage. Dominatuer is relatively well fancied from the hold up performers and granted the usual riding tactics are employed he could struggle to even place, however he does enjoy Chepstow having won his last two races here.

The well fancied Springfield Fox is likely to take the field along and the top eight or so runners on the above pace map seem likely to be best placed as far as the course bias goes.

Instant Expert

With such a big field to weigh up and some extreme going and distances on offer here, Instant Expert is a great way to quickly scan through the field and to judge each runner’s suitability to conditions.

The place data is often the best indicator as to what should run well and what shouldn’t. Hurdle form that proves ability to handle this distance or going would also be relevant here so that’s included in the filter.

The going doesn’t look an obvious negative for most of this field although The Hollow Ginge and Vieux Lion Rouge do have questions to answer.

It makes sense to open up the distance range a little as races at similar trips are also relevant here. There is plenty of placed form at this sort of trip but The Two Amigos and Vieux Lion Rouge remain slight questions marks despite some placed form according to Instant Expert whilst Big River, Bobo Mac and Captain Drake certainly have questions to answer having tried this sort of trip before and failed.

We’re going to narrow things significantly here to look at the win data.

Now we are looking at just handicap chases to get the most relevant data. There is still plenty of strong heavy ground form on offer here and the course records of Dominateur and Ramses De Teillee are also noteworthy.

The Two Amigos and Christmas In April are the only runners to have won more than once in this distance range whilst big field handicap form is fairly thin on the ground with only three runners here recording wins. Even if you look at wins across all races and codes only four runners have a 16+ runner race win (Secret Reprieve is the additional runner to have won in a 16+ runner field having beaten 15 runners in a novice hurdle here at Chepstow previously).

Odds

You’d think such big field races that have a habit of being run in atrocious conditions would have plenty of shocks but picking the winner of this in recent years hasn’t been the challenge it could have been.

Eight of the last ten winners of this have started the race at 10/1 or shorter. Obviously we don’t know exactly which horses are going to go off at what prices at this stage but this is clearly a race where the form book stands up and the chances are one of those in the first six or seven in the betting are going to be triumphant once again.

The Formbook

So with this race being less of a lottery than it could be let’s delve more into the form.

It’s quite easy to see why Secret Reprieve is the warm favourite in this race. He carries a 4lb penalty for winning a course handicap by 12 lengths last time out (The Two Amigos was 2nd). He’s lightly raced, open to more improvement and has won both his starts on heavy ground. He does have to prove himself over this trip though and his sire is just 2 from 42 at this distance so he’s short enough with those doubts in mind.

Springfield Fox was noted as being the likely front runner in this contest but he too has to prove himself over this sort of test. Rider Sean Bowen has a 21.88% strike rate here at Chepstow over the past five years and he’s produced a WIN PL of 45.25 so he should be relied upon to get the fractions right from the front but his stamina will be going into unchartered waters here.

Truckers Lodge hasn’t run since unseating his rider back in October and that is potentially a longer break than you’d want heading into this but surely Paul Nicholls knows what is right for the horse. He was 2nd to Potters Corner in this a year ago off a similar break so there shouldn’t be any concern over the absence and there are certainly no question marks about the conditions. That race worked out well too but in helping frank that form with an 18 length victory in the Midlands Grand National in March he goes into this year’s race 17lbs higher so he’s going to need to be a much better horse this time around to defy that mark.

Christmas In April brings plenty of staying form into this and looks an interesting contender. He’s failed to win in two runs here but was a solid 2nd just over a year ago when staying on well over half a mile shorter behind a subsequent winner (3rd and 4th also franked the form since). He won easily over this trip at Exeter in February on similar ground and is now only 7lbs higher so he looks to have a leading chance having finished a creditable 2nd last time out (the 3rd won next time out). There are probably better handicapped horses in this field but it’s all about finding the best handicapped horse IN THESE CONDITIONS and he is right up there.

Dominateur loves it here and shouldn’t be judged harshly on his defeat last time out when he had plenty to find with his two rivals at the weights. He’s been well beaten on his last three runs though so his current well being is a worry, as is his ability to make up plenty of ground over his rivals in this contest with prominent racers often favoured. He remains with potential but has many questions to answer, including stamina concerns.

Lord Du Mesnil ran okay at best over the Grand National fences at Aintree last time out but that run came over a mile shorter so isn’t the biggest concern. He has run at this trip before, in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, and he was a creditable 2nd there. His previous run had come when 2nd again in the Haydock Grand National trial on heavy ground so he has ticks for both the going and the distance here. It looks as though he’s been targeted at this all season so far with a run over hurdles blowing the cobwebs away followed by a run over a distance too short. His trainer has an IV of 2.01 in this distance range and he looks likely to outrun his odds.

The Two Amigos has plenty of ground to make up on Secret Reprieve based on their last meeting but he does have a 4lb swing and crucially an extra 7f to race over. We know he stays well enough as he was 5th in this last year and that race worked out well so there was no disgrace in being beaten 10 lengths. However this year’s race could be just as strong and he runs off the same mark (8lbs higher than his last winning mark) so doesn’t look well enough handicapped to land this for all he could easily run into the places.

One place, and 6 lengths ahead of The Two Amigos in the last running of this race was Prime Venture and he’s only 4lbs higher so should be able to confirm that form everything else being equal. He was ridden a bit more patiently than the other placed runners and has seemingly been ridden a bit more prominently in a few races since so could be seen to even better effect this time around. A last time out win was his first over fences so could act as a confidence booster and he’s capable of going well.

Yala Enki was also placed last year which means the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th from the previous renewal are all reopposing. He was ideally placed last time around but he too is only 4lbs higher again this year so must be in with some sort of chance. He’s the top weight here which won’t be ideal in stamina sapping conditions and is unlikely to get his own way out in front so a place might be the best thing to aim for again.

Ramses De Teillee bumped into Yala Enki at Cheltenham in November over 3f shorter and there was just a short head between the pair on that occasion and they are handicapped to finish together once again. The pair also met in this race in 2018 when they were 2nd and 3rd. Ramses De Teillee was 4 lengths ahead that day and is now only 4lbs worse off. It’s easy to see why he and Yala Enki are the same sort of price this time around but slight preference from the pair would be for Ramses De Teillee.

Verdict

It's not only a ten horse race but previous renewals have told us the winner is very likely to come from that group judging by the current market. There are many here that seem likely to run well and would probably appeal as place only bets but many of the solid contenders look far less convincing for win only purposes.

Lord Du Mesnil is very interesting and is presumably being campaigned around this and the Aintree Grand National this year. He’s worth covering as a saver each way but the main selection here is going to be Christmas In April who seems to tick pretty much all the necessary boxes and comes here in very good form with more to come.

Sat TV Trends: 9th Jan 2021

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More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Wincanton, Kempton and Chepstow for a bumper day of LIVE action with 10 ITV races being shown!

At Kempton Park, the Lanzarote Hurdle is their main event – a race that trainer Nicky Henderson has won three times since 2013. Plus, they are also staging the Grade Two Relkeel Hurdle that was lost at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

Then at Wincanton, we’ve four LIVE races that include the rescheduled Paddy Power Dipper Novices’ Chase, that was called off at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

We’ve also got the 2020 Welsh Grand National and Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle to take in at Chepstow – two more races that we lost over the Christmas period due to the weather.

So, fingers crossed the weather is kind and, as normal, we are on-hand with all the key stats and trends for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.10 – Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV4

7/8 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/8 – Won no more than twice over fences before
6/8 – Had run at the track before (hurdles/chase)
6/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Irish bred
5/8 – Rated between 134 and 139
5/8 – Carried 11-6 or more in weight
4/8 – Ran at Ludlow (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by Amy Murphy
Erick Le Rouge won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 17/2

 

1.45 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Had run at the track before
6/8 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/8 – Placed favourites
5/8 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
5/8 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
2/8 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/8 – Winning favourites
Fingerontheswitch (15/2) won the race in 2020
Glen Forsa (11/4) won the race in 2019
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

 

2.20 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m5f ITV4

14/16 – Went on run in a race at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
14/16 – Won by either a French (5) or Irish (9) bred
14/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/16 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
10/16 – Had won at Cheltenham before
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Went onto run in the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season
7/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
Summerville Boy (10/1) won this race in 2020
Agrapart (16/1) won the race in 2017

Note: This race is normally staged at Cheltenham

 

2.55 – Ladbrokes Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
6/7 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
6/7 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Winning favourites
4/7 – Had won over fences at the track
Frodon won the race in 2020
Top Notch won the race in 2019
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2020
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014

3.30 – Ladbrokes Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

19/19 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
17/19 – Aged 7 or younger
17/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
14/19 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
14/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
13/19 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
13/19 – Irish (7) or French (6) bred
13/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Carried 10-11 or less
11/19 – Aged 6 years-old
9/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/19 -  Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (38 runnings) 34 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 15/2

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

2.05 - Paddy Power Dipper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

18/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
18/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Went onto run in a Cheltenham Festival race (1 winner)
15/18 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/18 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
13/18 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/18 – Had won over fences at 2m3f or further before
10/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Aged 7 years-old
7/18 – Returned 5/4 or shorter in the betting
7/18 – Ran at either Sandown or Cheltenham last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/18 – Went onto win the Arkle Chase (My Way De Solzen, 2007)

Note: This race is normally run at Cheltenham

 

2.35 – MansionBet’s Bet 10 Get 20 Handicap Chase Cl3 2m4f35y ITV4

8/8 – Aged 8 or older
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Won 2 or less time over fences
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/8 – Aged 8 or older
5/8 – Placed favourites
5/8 – Rated between 131 and 135
4/8 – Finished 4th last time out
4/8 – Ran at Exeter (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/8 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/8 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/8 – Winning favourites
Gala Ball won this race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/2

 

3.45 – Mansionbet Faller Insurance Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-130) 1m 7 1/2f ITV4

Only 1 previous running
Trainer Colin Tizzard won the 2020 running with Molineaux
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 31% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Mulholland is just 3 from 39 with his chasers at the track

 

 

Chepstow Horse Racing Betting Trends (ATR/ITV4)

 

1.25 – Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cl1 (3yo) 2m ITV4

15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
14/16 – Won between 0-2 times previously
11/16 – French bred
9/16 – Won their last race
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Raced at the track previously
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/16 – Trained by Alan King

 

3.10 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

18/18 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
18/18 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/18 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
16/18 – Aged 9 or younger
16/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
13/18 – Aged 8 or younger
12/18 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
12/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
12/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – French bred
6/18 – Had run in the Welsh National before
5/18 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1

 

 

 

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Favourites Risky In Sandown Handicap So Dare To Go Each Way

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There are some nice, competitive betting heats on Saturday and the 1.50 at Sandown, live on ITV4 looks a very interesting contest.

With just eight runners this is hopefully a very solvable puzzle and assuming no non runners (fingers crossed) it has a nice each way shape to it.

Pace

A chase ‘sprint’ here which could end up favouring those nearer the pace than those held up. Let’s take a look at the pace data over this course and distance in similar ground in field sizes between 7 and 10 runners.

There isn’t necessarily a front running advantage here which is what we often see but prominent racers do seem to be quite strongly favoured with a very profitable WIN PL (the only run style that is profitable to back blind) and an IV of 1.64. Leaders and those who race in mid division seem pretty evenly matched which backs up the theory that the sweet spot here is to race prominently. Meanwhile the hold up performers here do not perform well. They have a very poor win and place strike rate compared with other run styles and have produced a WIN PL of -42.

The pace map for this race looks interesting given the above information. For a start, the two market leaders are likely to be given contrasting rides with Moonlighter likely to be very close to the pace and Ibleo likely to be ridden much more patiently.

Paddy’s Poem seems to be the main pace angle in the race with several other runners likely to be well positioned just off the pace in this. San Benedeto and Born Survivor are likely to be the worst positioned runners in this race based on the historical pace data.

Instant Expert

Looking at the win data in these conditions, the eyes are instantly drawn to Hollywoodien who seems to score pretty well across the board. The only blot on his Instant Expert CV being a defeat on his sole visit here. He was 3rd of 7 on that occasion and not ideally placed so he certainly acts well enough round here.

Ibleo was 2nd in this class last time out and has won a 7 runner race before so there shouldn’t be many concerns regarding his ability in this class or in this field size.

Fellow market fancy Moonlighter seems to have a few questions to answer here according to Instant Expert. The ground shouldn’t be an issue though, he’s won on both heavy and good ground over either code so is clearly versatile. He was also 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup so class shouldn’t be an issue either. Like Ibleo, Moonlighter has also won a 7 runner race so this 8 runner field isn’t going to be a disadvantage.

Born Survivor seems to be a negative, not only from a pace perspective, but also going off Instant Expert data (albeit a limited amount of data).

Course form is always a plus, especially at a right handed course like Sandown, and Darebin is the only runner who can boast a course chase win. In total he’s run ten times here over fences and he has a 30% strike rate. Seven of his runs here have resulted in a top 3 finish so it's clearly a course he enjoys.

Trainers Stats

Using the Query Tool in Geegeez Gold we can examine both the record of each of these trainers in January plus their records here at Sandown.

The above shows all of the trainers involved in this race and their records in January for the past 5 years. Nick Williams is a stand out record in terms of A/E, in fact he’s the only trainer with a figure over 1. This is another plus for Moonlighter, who looks as though he’ll be cherry ripe for this given the trainer’s record and he should be well placed according to our place data. Nick Gifford, trainer of Paddy’s Poem, has by far the worst A/E for his runners in January.

There isn’t enough meaningful data to look at their records here at Sandown during January but their overall records at Sandown should be insightful.

We’re seeing almost a reversal of the January trainer data here. Nick Gifford and Tom Symonds have very good records here at Sandown whereas Nick Williams, who traditionally does well in January, does not do well here at Sandown and has the worst A/E here of any of these trainers.

Form View

A lot of the races that these horses have been running in haven’t been working out very well so it’s relatively difficult to compare the strength of each runner’s recent form. Two runners have run in races that have worked out pretty well but they are the two runners who are making their seasonal debuts, Hollywoodien and Paddy’s Poem. Hollywoodien’s last run came in March at Haydock when he beat two subsequent winners. Paddy’s Poem’s last race was just over a year ago over this course and distance. He was 2nd on that occasion in a race where the 1st, 4th and 5th all won on one of their next two starts.

We can check the trainer record for both horses after breaks of 60+ days. That won’t necessarily tell us what can be expected after a year off but it could give an indication. Tom Symonds, trainer of Hollywoodien, has a 11.3% strike rate with all runners and an 11.54% win ratio with runners returning after a 60+ day absence. That’s good news for backers of Hollywoodien who are worried about the time off the track.

Nick Gifford, trainer of Paddy’s Poem, has a win record of 9.13% across all runners which becomes 8.47% when looking at those returning from a break. Slightly less but not a big worry.

Ibleo has been a beaten favourite on his last three runs so whilst he is still clearly in form and running pretty well, he doesn’t look one to take a short price about here. That’s especially the case with the possibility he might not be ideally placed too. Moonlighter should be much better placed but he fell last time out and he too has been finding one too good when completing so I’d be reluctant to back this one at restrictive odds too.

Gary Moore has two runners here, Early Du Lemo and Darebin. The pair met here less than a month ago with the latter, who is less well fancied of the pair in the market here, coming out on top by a neck. Early Du Lemo is 3lbs better off now so has a chance of reversing that form but he did suffer a heavy fall a couple of weeks ago at Ascot.

Hollywoodien remains with potential but is 6lb higher than his last run returning from an absence. If fit and well he should run well but there is some guesswork involved in that. Similar guesswork applies to Paddy’s Poem who has strong course and distance form. The chance he could be pestered on the front end is enough to put me off slightly on his return to racing but he’s a more than fair price.

San Benedeto drops back in trip, presumably in an effort from his trainer to get the horse to finish off his races better. His older form over this trip is strong but he often shaped like further would suit and he might find this a sharp enough test. That leaves Born Survivor who is likely to be poorly placed at the back of the field and he’s run poorly in all three races this season anyway.

Verdict

The market leaders may well win this but they don’t appear to offer much value in this contest and are worth taking on with an each way play. Early Du Lemo and Darebin are very closely matched on previous form but Darebin is a very consistent runner here at Sandown and certainly should not be twice the price of his stable mate. He has an excellent chance of hitting the frame once again at the very least and seems to offer the best value in this race.

Hollywoodien and Paddy’s Poem especially are very much respected but they do have to prove their well being so both are overlooked. Paddy’s Poem also has his trainer's poor record in January to overcome but if this isn't the day for him he would be interesting back here at Sandown at some point this season.

Sat TV Trends: 2nd Jan 2021

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Another MASSIVE day for the ITV4 horse racing cameras as they move to Ayr and Sandown for more LIVE coverage.

Like every Saturday, here at GeeGeez we take you through all the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and hopefully find a few winners.

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)


1.50 – Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap Chase

14/14 – Won over at least 2m (chase) previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 2 months
13/14 – Priced 17/2 or shorter
11/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Won between 1-4 times over fences in the UK previously
10/14 – Officially rated 134 or higher
10/14 – Favourites placed
9/14 – Never raced at Sandown
9/14 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
8/14 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Winning Favourites
7/14 – Unplaced last time out
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/14 – Went onto win a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Champion Chase, Grand Annual)
4/14 – Won their last race
3/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
Trainer Philip Hobbs has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Locker Room Talk won the race in 2020
Darebin won the race in 2019 and was 4th in 2020

 

2.25 – Unibet Tolworth Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV4


15/16 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Priced  5/1 or shorter
14/16 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
13/16 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
13/16 – Came from the top three in the market
12/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Winning Favourites
5/16 – Ran at either Sandown (3) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
3/16 – Won by the Colin Tizzard yard (3 of the last 4)
3/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/16 – Ran at Sandown before
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/16 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
1/16 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 22 of the last 28 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 3/1


3.00 - Unibet Veterans´ Handicap Chase Final (The Final of The 2015 Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m37y ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
Trainers Anthony Honeyball, Venetia Williams, Evan Williams, Charlie Longsdon and David Pipe are past winners
5/5 – Ran in last 4 weeks
4/5 – 4+ wins over fences
4/5 – Unplaced last time out
4/5 – winners aged 11 or 12 years-old
4/5 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
3/5 – Officially rated between 135-145
2/5 – Winning favourite (joint)
Jepeck won the race in 2020

 

3.35 – Unibet Casino Deposit £10 Get £40 Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV4

13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
12/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/15 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
11/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/15 – Priced a double-figure price in the betting
7/15 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
7/15 – Went onto finish unplaced in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
6/15 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Officially rated between 127 and 132
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Irish bred
2/15 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/15 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
Monsieur Lecoq won this race in 2019

 

 

Ayr Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

 

2.05 – Ayrshire Cancer Support Patient Transport Journeys Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Rose Dobbin has a 23% record with her chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Alexander has 20% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 31% record riding over fences at the track
Jockey Conor O’Farrell is just 1 from 25 riding over fences at the track

2.40 – Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Tristan Davidson has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald Whillans has an 18% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 17% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 21% record riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Harry Reed has a 20% record riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Ryan Day is just 3 from 15 riding over hurdles at the track

3.15 – Retraining Of Racehorses (RoR) Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+ 0-150) 3m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Alexander has 20% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Stephen Mulqueen is just 1 from 29 riding over fences at the track

 

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Sat TV Trends: 19th Dec 2020

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It’s the last weekend before Christmas and it looks set to be another decent Saturday of jumping action with the ITV cameras heading to Haydock and Ascot for six LIVE races.

So, to help you narrow down the fields we’ve got all the big-race trends and key stats.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – ‘For The Love Of Racing’ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m3f ITV4

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
5/5 – Yet to run at the track
4/5 – Had won over 2m3f+
4/5 – Carried 10-10 or more
4/5 – Returned between 6/1 to 10/1
4/5 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
2/5 – Ran at Exeter last time out
0/5 – Winning favourites
Trainers Venetia Williams, Paul Nicholls, Ian Williams, Robert Walford and Harry Fry were past winners
Espoir De Guye won the race in 2019nly 5 previous runnings
Trainers Venetia Williams, Paul Nicholls, Ian Williams, Robert Walford and Harry Fry were past winners


2.25 – Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

18/18 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/18 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s World Hurdle (6 won, 4 runners-up)
16/18 – Placed in the top three in their last race
15/18 – Favourites placed
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
13/18 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
13/18 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
12/18 – French-bred horse
12/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
11/18 – Raced at Newbury last time out
10/18 – Won their last race
10/18 – Favourites that won
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nick Williams
2/18 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
2/18 – Ridden by jockey Tom Scudamore
The Worlds End won the race in 2019
Paisley Park won the race in 2018
Thistlecrack won this race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

Note:
2009 and 2010 runnings - Newbury
2005 running - Chepstow
2004  running -Windsor


3.00 – Good Luck Hollie In SPOTY Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

14/15 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
10/15 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/15 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
9/15 – Raced at Ascot previously
8/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/15 – Won by a French bred horse
8/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/15 – Favourites placed
6/15 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
6/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out
5/15 – Aged 7 years-old
3/15 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/15 – Trained by Henry Daly
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 3 runnings)
Regal Encore won the race in 2016 and 2019

Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor

 

3.35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

17/17 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
17/17 – Had won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
16/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 2 months
11/17 – Carried 10-10 or more
10/17 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
9/17 – Priced 12/1 or bigger in the betting
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/17 – Winning favourites
Not So Sleepy won the race in 2019
Mohaayed won the race in 2018

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m2f191y ITV

13/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Aged 7 or younger
9/13 – Didn’t win last time out
9/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/13 – Had won 1-3 times over hurdles before
8/13 – Had raced at Haydock before
7/13 – Ran at either Newbury (2) or Haydock (5) last time out
6/13 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
5/13 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
5/13 – Winning Favourites
4/13 – French bred
2/13 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
4 of the last 9 runnings were won by a claiming jockey

 

2.40 – Betfair Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

13/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/13 – Failed to win their last race
11/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
9/13 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
8/13 – Had raced at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
8/13 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
7/13 – Favourites placed
6/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
4/13 – French bred
3/13 – Ridden by jockey Tom O’Brien
3/13 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (all unplaced)
3/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/13 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
7 of the last 12 winners carried 11-0 or more
Lord Du Mesnil won the race in 2019

 

 

 

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Windsor Avenue Could Be The Right Move In Caspian Caviar Gold Cup

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Saturday’s big handicap is the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase and as you’d expect, we have an absolute cracker in store. As usual this preview will look at a number of angles and data that are easily found with a Geegeez Gold subscription.

Pace

The ground at Cheltenham is somewhere between soft and good to soft so we’ll have a look at the previous data on this going for 16+ runner handicaps since 2009 at 2m4f:

A pretty strong edge for those that race nearer the pace here. The Win PL, EW PL and Place % all gradually fall the further back in the field a runner is placed.

Hold up horses have a remarkably poor record. This run style has produced a WIN PL of -131.00 and a WIN % of just 0.7%. Even the place strike rate of 13.38% is very low – around three times lower than that of the front runners.

There is plenty of hope for those that race in mid division though. With only a handful more runners they are producing twelve times the winners of a hold up style and a respectable WIN % of 8.11%. The majority of winners and placed horses race in mid division despite these runners certainly not being seen to best effect like the front runners are.

The pace map for this race will give us a further idea of which runners could be advantaged, or disadvantaged, by the run of the race here.

This race should be run at a good gallop with possible contested speed here. Leading contender Master Tommytucker seems most likely to lead based on recent runs but you couldn’t rule out Windsor Avenue, Good Boy Bobby or Southfield Stone being the early leader.

There are a decent number of hold up horses here and although possibly only ruling out relatively unfancied runners, those below Ibis Du Rheu in the above pace map may end up struggling to get into this.

Previous Winners

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is often a good trial for this contest, the last four winners all took that race in a month prior to winning this although none were victorious in their trial.

The last two winners of this race, Warthog and Frodon, finished 3rd and 2nd going into this race. This year Coole Cody will be looking to complete the double whilst Al Dancer (3rd in the race this year) possibly has the ideal profile in terms of having placed in that race as a prep for this. Saint Sonnet is the only other runner to come from that race and he was a final fence faller when fading from contention.

Coole Cody does look best of those reopposing here but completing this double is difficult so perhaps this race won’t hold the key this year.

Interestingly, according to Andy Newton’s trends for this race, the last 18 winners have all been aged 8 or younger. That would appear to rule out Coole Cody and another fancied runner, Master Tommytucker.

Other Angles

The two market leaders here, Master Tommytucker and Al Dancer, have already met this season at Newton Abbot in similar conditions. Al Dancer gave Master Tommytucker 6lbs and a 2.75 length beating on that occasion and now gets 3lbs from that rival so Al Dancer would appear to have the edge at the weights.

Cepage is one of just a few here to have not had a prep run this season but Cepage’s trainer, Venetia Williams, has an IV of 2.60 and a WIN PL of 21.54 with handicap runners who have not run for 60+ days. His absence should not be seen as a negative.

We all know how important previous course form can be here, 13 of the last 18 winners of this had previously raced here and 5 had won here before. Al Dancer and Coole Cody have a good record here, Al Dancer has finished 1st, 2nd, 5th and 3rd in four runs over fences here and also has a course hurdle win to his name whilst Coole Cody has finished 2nd and 1st from his two runs here on the chase course and he too has a course hurdle win.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Windsor Avenue, has a strong record in handicaps at this sort of distance range. He has a 23.26% strike rate from 43 runners which have provided a WIN PL of 15.47 and an IV of 2.34. Another trainer who does well in handicaps at this distance range is Andrew J Martin (Militarian). His three winners have produced a whopping 103.15 WIN PL and an IV of 1.59.

A jockey stat worth noting is the record of Bryony Frost at Cheltenham. She has a better than 20% strike rate at this venue which improves to 30.77 when only including rides for Paul Nicholls and 47.06% when examining just her rides here on his chasers. She rides Southfield Stone for Nicholls here.

Verdict

This is a really wide open contest and a case can be made for many. Personally I want to be on something that is going to be well placed here and I’m mainly looking at Windsor Avenue and Southfield Stone.

Windsor Avenue’s last time out 2nd to Imperial Aura received a nice form boost when that winner came out and won nicely at Grade 2 level next time out. He’s only been out of the first two once when completing and on that occasion he was 4th, beaten less than a length. His handicap mark could be a lenient one and he’s got the stamina to get up the hill in this ground.

Southfield Stone is another consistent performer who has finished 1st and 2nd here on his last two starts. He was a length and a half in front of Coole Cody here off level weights in October and is only 2lbs worse off here but the big problem seems to be the ground as he clearly enjoys good ground. Clear preference between the pair is therefore with Windsor Avenue.

It’s also worth mentioning that Cepage was 4th in this last year and 2nd to Frodon in this two years ago. He runs off the same mark as last year and is 12lbs higher than in 2018. He probably didn’t quite stay in the Ultima in March and he’d rate a decent enough place only bet but he could be vulnerable yet again for win purposes.

Sat TV Trends: 12th Dec 2020

/in /by

A MASSIVE day up at Prestbury Park as the Cheltenham December Meeting continues this Saturday, plus the ITV cameras also head to Doncaster for three races - here at GeeGeez we are on hand with all the big-race trends and stats…..

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 - Spreadex Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo) 2m 1/2f ITV4


10/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/10 – Returned 15/2 or shorter
8/10 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
8/10 – Irish bred
8/10 – Aged 7 or older
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Carried 10-12 or more
6/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
6/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Gino Trail won this race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

1.50 – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

18/18 – Aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
14/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/18 - Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (1 winner, Frodon – Ryanair Chase)
13/18 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (5 won)
13/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
12/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/18 – Officially rated 142 or higher
11/18 – French bred
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
8/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
8/18 – Ran in the Paddy Power (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
6/18 – Finished in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out
5/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by David Pipe
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (3 wins in total)
2/18 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
1/18 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 9/1

 

2.25 - Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

16/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
14/16 – Aged 6 or younger
13/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
13/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (3 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
10/16 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
10/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/16 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
9/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/16 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
3/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
9 of the last 11 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting

3.00 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f ITV4

18/18 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
16/18 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
16/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Won over 2m1f+ (hurdles) previously
15/18 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
14/18 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
14/18 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
13/18 –  Favourites placed
12/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
12/18 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
11/18 – Won their latest race
11/18 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
9/18 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/18 – Rated 162 or higher
7/18 – Winning distance:  4+ lengths
6/18 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
5/18 – Won by a French-bred horse
5/18 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
4/18 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
4/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/18 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
1/18 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)

3.35 – Close Brothers Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
All five winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
2/5 - Winners carried 10-11 in weight
2/5 - Winners aged 7 or 8 years-old
2/5 – Winning favourites
Trainers, Nicky Henderson, Dan Skelton, Noel Williams (2), Anthony Honeyball have won the race in the past

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

2.05 – bet365 December Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

10/10 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
9/10 – Won between 0-2 times over fences
9/10 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Priced 5/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – French (2) or Irish (5) bred
6/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3 of the last 7 runnings have been won by trainer Paul Nicholls

Note: from 2013 back the race was run at Lingfield Park

 

2.40 – Bet365 Summit Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (3yo) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

10/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/10 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
8/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/10 – Had won just once before over hurdles
8/10 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
7/10 – Irish (3) or French (4) bred
6/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ran at Market Rasen last time out
2/10 – Trained by John Quinn
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Peace and Co won the race in 2014 and went onto with the Triumph Hurdle

3.15 – bet365 Handicap Chase (4 yo+) Cl2 3m ITV4

10/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Had won no more than 2 times over fences
9/11 – Aged 8 or younger
9/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/11 – Unplaced last time out
8/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Had won over 3m+ (fences) before
6/11 – Aged 7 years-old
6/11 – Ran at Doncaster before
2/11 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
2/11 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 6 winners were all rated 139

 

 

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 5th Dec 2020

/in /by

Another massive Saturday of NH jumping action with the ITV cameras heading to Sandown and Aintree, with the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (2.25) and William Hill Becher Chase (2.25) the feature contests - As always, we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races.

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 – Planteur At Chapel Stud Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

17/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
16/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
16/17 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
15/17 – French (11) or Irish (4) bred
14/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (4) last time out
11/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (2 winners)
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/17 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/17 – Trained by Alan King

 

2.25– Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

17/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Aged 9 or younger
16/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Had won a Grade One chase before
15/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
14/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
14/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
13/18 – French bred
13/18 – Officially rated 165 or higher
13/18 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
11/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
9/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/18 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
1/18 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 5/2

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

 

3.00 – Betfair Back And Lay London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y ITV4

14/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Aged 7 or older
14/15 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
14/15 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
13/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Rated 126 or higher
12/15 – Aged 8 or older
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
8/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/15 – Trained by Tom George
1/15 – Winning favourites
Morney Wing (12/1) won this race in 2018
2019 running was declared a void race

 

3.35 – Betfair Exchange December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f216y ITV4

16/17 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/17 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
12/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/17 – Rated between 116-128
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
9/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
10 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
Mack The Man (6/1) won this race in 2019
Man Of Plenty (8/1) won this race in 2018

 

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.30 – William Hill Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f ITV4

15/18 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
14/18 – Carried 10-12 or less
14/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/18 – Had no more than 1 start that season
13/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/18 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
12/18 – Aged 9 or older
12/18 – Officially rated between 123-138
12/18 – Had raced at Aintree before
11/18 – Irish-bred winners
10/18 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
7/18 – Placed favourites
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Irish-trained winners
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/18 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/18 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 12/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 6 times since 1993
Walk In The Mill won the race in 2018 and 2019
Blaklion won the race in 2017
Vieux Lion Rouge won the race in 2016

 

2.05 – Williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (3Yyo) 2m1f ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/8 – Won between 0-1 times over hurdles
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Winning distance 8 or more lengths
7/8 – Carried 10-12 in weight
5/8 – Winning favourites
4/8 – Won last time out
3/8 – Irish-trained winners
3/8 – Trained by Alan King
2/8 – Trained by Gavin Cromwell

 

2.40 – William Hill Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m1f ITV4

9/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Had won over at least 3m (chase)
8/9 – Placed favourites (top 3)
8/9 – Ran at Aintree, Wetherby or Cheltenham last time out
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Aged 8 or younger
6/8 – Had run at Aintree in the past
6/9 – Winning favourites
6/9 – Irish Bred
5/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/9 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/9 – Ridden by Danny Cook
Native River won this race in 2019
Definitly Red won the race in 2017 and 2018
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011

3.15 – William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV

14/15 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
13/15 – Aged 8 or older
13/15 – Rated 124 or more
11/15 – Had run at Aintree before (4 over the GN style fences)
11/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/15 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or more
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price
6/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National
1/15 – Won last time out
Hogan’s Height (16/1) won the race in 2019
11 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old

 

 

 

 

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Walk In The Mill Has Right Credentials For Hat Trick Bid

/in , /by

The Becher Chase is one of my favourite jumps races of the season and we look set for a cracker at Aintree on Saturday.

This article will run through some trends for this race, relevant form for each runner and of course many of the angles that are highlighted with a Geegeez Gold subscription.

Pace

Pace is an important factor in any race so let’s take a look at any potential pace bias in this race which could help narrow down the field:

Despite the long distance there is a clear indication that being near the pace is an advantage here at Aintree. It’s worth noting that not all of these races took place on the National course but many of them did and we see some very strong data.

The Win %, Win PL, Place % and IV all drop the further back in the field you are. The Place PL also follows a similar trend except 'Prominent' is slightly more profitable than 'Led' for that metric.

Now it’s worth noting that almost half the winners above have been either held up or have raced in mid division so we can’t simply put a line through those that are likely to be more patiently ridden but they’ve provided far more runners in the above data set and are clearly disadvantaged. Therefore we need to mark up those likely to be closer to the pace and mark down those who are likely to be held up.

The fact that almost half of front runners reach the frame suggests it’s not a bad strategy to simply back whichever front runner appears to have the best chance in this race.

Further credence is given to that strategy when you look at the data for this distance exclusively on soft ground.

The metrics for front runners fly up and the IV is huge 6.54. Front runners have a 37.5% win ratio and 62.5% place ratio. The sample is even smaller here so perhaps this data shouldn’t be taken completely at face value but soft ground certainly seems to benefit front runners even more than good ground does.

So which horses are likely to benefit from the pace bias, and which aren’t?

It looks likely that the pace will come from Yala Enki with Coo Star Sivola most likely to lead if Yala Enki doesn’t.

The immediate take away from this pace map, other than the fact that it’s likely to be front runner favouring lone speed, is that two of the leading contenders according to the market, Walk In The Mill and Le Breuil could be near the rear of the field.

Previous Experience Of The Fences

When it comes to the Grand National, some prefer the solid choice of previous experience over these fences and others prefer something that is unexposed over the famous obstacles.

When it comes to the Becher Chase it has certainly paid to follow Grand National fence form. A massive nine of the last ten winners had previously run on the Grand National course and twenty-three of the last thirty horses to finish in the first three had the same experience.

Now it’s worth remembering that in an ordinary year some of these that haven’t yet run here would have done so in April had we not lost the 2020 Grand National meeting to Covid so if there is a year this trend will be bucked it will probably be this year but this remains a noteworthy stat.

The runners in this year’s Becher Chase who have Grand National course experience are:

Kimberlite Candy
Le Breuil
Walk In The Mill
Ramses De Teilee
Minellacelebration
Vieux Lion Rouge
Joe Farrell

The runners without a run over these fences are:

Yala Enki
Calett Mad
Coo Star Sivola
Give Me A Copper
Smooth Stepper
Aso
Jett
Calipso Collonges

Race Fitness

Only four of these come here without a previous run this season. Is that a big deal?

Well three of the last ten winners have come here fresh and defied an absence which is a strong record given the majority of the field have usually had a prep. A lack of previous run this season certainly shouldn’t be seen as a big negative.

Once again Covid could have a slight effect here. Those who won here fresh had previously run in April but the fresh runners this year have not run since January at least which could have an impact.

Instant Expert

Instant Expert is an excellent tool for getting a quick insight into horse, trainer, jockey or sire performance across a number of relevant metrics. This is how the runners shape up from a place perspective here:

Calipso Collonges is particularly consistent on this ground but surprisingly Le Breuil, and a few other fancied runners, have a patchy record on soft ground.

The importance of course form has already been discussed and Walk In The Mill, Kimberlite Candy and Minellacelebration all do well here but it’s worth noting that Minellacelebration’s good runs at Aintree were on the Mildmay course and he ran poorly over this course in this race last season.

Le Breuil’s poor performance here across the board really stands out. He was beaten 20 lengths in this last season and is only 4lbs lower this time around. It’s difficult to make a case for him and he looks remarkably short with so many question marks.

Vieux Lion Rouge ticked a box having previously run at this course but also seems to have plenty of negatives against him, including a poor run in this last year.

From the place perspective Kimberlite Candy (from limited data), Walk In The Mill, Minellacelebration are all solid.

Narrowing it down with the win data:

It’s a lot harder to find positives when looking solely at win data but Walk In The Mill and Minellacelebration are once again relatively strong and it’s also worth noting that Give Me Copper is amongst the better scorers, albeit with limited data.

Further Analysis

We have to start with last year’s 1st and 2nd, Walk In The Mill and Kimberlite Candy.

Walk In The Mill, despite often being ridden patiently, has won this from mid division and from a prominent position in the past two years. He’s now 12lbs higher than when taking this two years ago and 8lbs higher than twelve months ago. He was also 4th in the 2019 Grand National so is clearly well at home here.

He was beaten 22 lengths and pulled up on his two prep runs for this race in the past so his recent run has once again followed suit and he’ll undoubtedly be primed for this. He wears cheekpieces for just the second time in his career, the first was in this last year when racing more prominently than he often does. The cheekpieces once again should give him a bit more extra early spark.

He beat Kimberlite Candy by 2.5 lengths last year giving Kimberlite Candy 4lbs. Kimberlite Candy has since won at Warwick by 10 lengths meaning he’ll now be 8lbs worse off with Walk In The Mill this time around.

Kimberlite Candy is the more lightly raced of the pair and should still have further improvement but with both at similar prices it’s difficult not to side with Walk In The Mill. Kimberlite Candy’s record first time out in the past four years is 1512 so his absence shouldn’t be much of a concern and he’s only raced twice in cheekpieces, finishing first and second in big races.

Ramses De Teillee has won three of his past five races and has finished runner up in a couple of big field chases. He should be well placed in this race and is proven in conditions and over staying trips. He was pulled up on his only try over these fences but he went okay for a long time and was eventually pulled up because the jockey’s reins had snapped. He certainly can't be ruled out.

He’s closely matched with Yala Enke, who he beat a short head last time out. Yala Enke is a pound better off and is another who should be well placed in this. He has no form over the National fences which is a slight put off and he appears to be a very dour stayer who could be one more for the Grand National itself if proving himself over the fences here.

Coo Star Sivola is yet another who should be suited by the run of the race but he also has never run over these fences before. He hasn’t run particularly well on his last three runs either so looks short enough.

Calett Mad stays very well and goes on any ground but has to defy an almost two year absence here. This may well be a sighter for the big one in April.

Give Me Copper was noted as performing well in Instant Expert and he comes here off the back of a wind op. He’s not the most consistent but he’s another who won’t be too far off the pace and he’s not completely handicapped out of this. If you fancy this one he may be more of a win only bet than each way despite the price.

Minellacelebration was the other very interesting runner from the view of Instant Expert. He won a handicap on the Mildmay course by 14 lengths back in October and has been raised 12lbs off the back of that. He seems to have improved from a wind op twelve months ago, possibly needing his next run but following that up with a second place and two wins. He did run poorly in this last year but that was just before his wind op and he’s otherwise won three from four at this venue and finished runner up in his other race. He did at least complete last year over these fences so if you can put that performance down to his wind he'd have a very good chance, for all he has to prove himself off this kind of mark.

The other runner worth a mention is Vieux Lion Rouge. He did score poorly in Instant Expert and ran poorly in this last year but he was second to Walk In The Mill two years ago and is now 18lbs better off. He hasn’t been at his best on his recent runs and was well beaten by Minellacelebration last time out so it’s entirely possible age is catching up with him now.

Verdict

Very unoriginal but the two most interesting runners here are two of the favourites, Walk In The Mill and Kimberlite Candy. The swing in the weights leaves two time winner Walk In The Mill the better handicapped of the pair.

Le Breuil seems much easier to take on and the best of the each way brigade seems to be the interesting Minellacelebration who does still have to prove himself over these fences and off this mark but he seems most likely to gatecrash the party if anything does.

Secret Investor and Potterman Most Interesting In Ladbrokes Trophy Chase

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The most interesting race of the day (and most difficult) is potentially the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury on Saturday, which will be run at 3pm.

With the weather forecast set fair this looks likely to be run on good ground which could potentially catch a few of these out.

The Shape Of The Race

Looking at the pace analyser over staying trips at Newbury on good or good to soft ground we can see that those that aren’t too far from the pace are likely to be advantaged.

We have a fairly small data set here so this information should be taken with a slight pinch of salt. However most of the data points to a pace advantage. It’s not necessarily easy to make all here but front runners do have an IV slightly above 1 and a decent enough place strike rate of 21.05%.

Prominent racers have performed clear best in this sample. They have an outstanding IV of 2.19 and have been profitable to follow blindly producing a WIN PL of 7.25 and an EW PL of 19.56.

Those that race in mid division have performed well and also produced a profitable EW PL of 17.50 when followed blindly. However they have been very unprofitable to follow for win purposes.

What really stands out here is no held up winners from 66 runners. This run style has the largest number of runners and the least amount of success. Even the place strike rate is less than half as strong as that of prominent racers and only slightly better than half as good compared to mid division. It’s very likely that an extreme hold up ride will be a massive negative in this contest.

Looking at the pace map for this race, there looks to be no shortage of pace which will likely compromise the chances of anything that wants to lead exclusively.

It looks highly likely that Two For Gold is going to be the one that leads this field. He’s going to have to go off pretty fast to do so and he’ll be racing over two furlongs further than he’s ever gone before. He’s also jumped and hung right in the past so there are enough question marks here against him. There are a number of runners that look set to try to race prominently here and they include several of the market fancies.

Those nearer the head of the betting who could be more inconvenienced by their race position include the likes of Kildisart, The Conditional and Cloth Cap.

The Angles

Instant Expert

Instant Expert is a great way to gain a huge amount of insight into the field in a short space of time.

We can see from the above place data that several of the market leaders are yet to run here at Newbury. There are also some distance and field size question marks over a few of these, particularly for Two For Gold and Secret Investor who are yet to race over this distance and have never encountered this big a field before.

Black Op is yet place in two outings in 16+ runner fields whilst Copper Head has only manged to place in one run from four in class 1 races which is a worry. Mister Malarkey’s poor record in big fields is another stat that stands out here.

With most of the market leaders generally scoring well enough with their place data we might gain a bit more insight by looking just at the win data.

We’re seeing a few more question marks here now for win purposes. Vinndication remains a solid choice whilst Kildisart and Aye Right look vulnerable in this class. Black Op looked relatively reliable from the place data but now looks a poor choice considering the win data.

Copperhead doesn’t have the best place record in class 1 races but he has previously won a class 1 race and he has a pretty solid record in most of the criteria here.

One at a bigger price who is beginning to look interesting is La Bague Au Roi. She has the joint second best win ratio on this kind of ground, the clear second best win record in this class (only behind the early favourite) and she has won all three starts here at Newbury.

Related Form

One race that could hold the key here is the Ultima Handicap Chase from this year’s Cheltenham Festival. The winner (The Conditional), the third (Vinndication) and the fourth (Kildisart) all reoppose here and are all near the head of the market.

The Conditional stayed on really well up the hill, especially considering he made a mistake two from home. He’s generally been seen to best effect on softer ground although he was runner up in this last year, albeit off a 9lb lower mark. He has previously been withdrawn because of good ground and is conceding race fitness to many of these so could be vulnerable in this.

Vinndication was just over 2.5 lengths behind Kildisart at Cheltenham and is now 3lbs better off. Kildisart had a lovely pipe opener last month over hurdles and will enjoy this ground. He also had the cheekpieces back on that he wore at Cheltenham.

He is arguably a more solid choice than Vinndication who sports first time cheekpieces here. Vinndication’s sire, Vinnie Roe, has a 11.93% strike rate in national hunt races with his offspring and that only drops to 11.76% when running in this combination of cheekpieces and a tongue tie so there is a very good chance he is no worse for it at least.

Vinndication should be better placed in this race though which makes deciding between the pair difficult.

Hot Form

Secret Investor’s winning seasonal debut is working out well.

The third has won since and the runner up (Potterman, who reopposes here) was only a short head away from victory on his next start. Secret Investor won that race comfortably and is only up 6lbs here (due to go up another 3lbs) which underestimates the strength of that form. Potterman runs off the same mark again and is due to go up 5lbs following this race.

Black Op was a 4.75 lengths 4th to Imperial Aura last time out and that runner has since won a Grade 2. He was also less than 2 lengths behind Champ here last season. Aye Right was runner up on his first start of the season in a Kelso handicap and the winner of that race, Nuts Well, has won again since.

Other Angles

Amongst the most in form trainers here are Kim Bailey (Vinndication and Two For Gold) who has a 25.42% win strike rate and 50.85% place strike rate in the past 30 days from 52 runners, Paul Nicholls (Secret Investor and Danny Whizzbang) who has a 28% win strike rate and 52% place strike rate in the same period from 125 runners and Anthony Honeyball (Regal Encore) who has a 27.78% win strike rate and 41.67% place strike rate in the past 30 days from 36 runners.

Regal Encore also has some other trainer stats in his favour. Anthony Honeyball has a 2.07 IV here at Newbury over the past 5 years and an IV of 1.98 in handicaps.

There is concerning trainer form from Warren Greatrex (La Bague Au Roi) who has had no wins and just three places from 32 runners in the past 30 days.

Aye Right is interesting from a sire snippet perspective. His sire has a strong record in marathon races (21.35% win strike rate, 15.18 WIN PL). The same goes for Copperhead and Potterman whose sire has a 27.59% win strike rate and 15.0 WIN PL over this distance range.

The Conditional’s trainer, David Bridgewater, does well in both handicaps in general and handicaps in this distance range with an IV of 1.68 for both. Danny Whizzbang goes here for Paul Nicholls and Sean Bowen who have a 27.27% win strike rate here as a combination over the past 5 years.

The Verdict

The hot form and related form of Secret Investor (10/1) and Potterman (18/1) make the pair extremely interesting. Secret Investor does have to prove himself in very big fields but he has finished 1st and 2nd in 13 and 14 runner fields in the past so it really shouldn’t be an issue. His trainer is in excellent form and he’s likely to be very well placed, just off the lead. He did jump right last time though which is a slight concern but he’ll love the ground.

Potterman might not be so well placed, although if not prominent he shouldn’t be too far off the pace. He’s extremely consistent and seems well suited by marathon races on good ground, in line with his sire stats. He’s a bigger price than Secret Investor and is a bit more proven from a stamina perspective so is preferred and fancied to reverse form with Secret Investor this time around.

Vinndication and Kildisart should run well and La Bague Au Roi may have been interesting but her trainer’s form is a concern.

Sat TV Trends: 28th Nov 2020

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Another huge Saturday ahead with the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase - plus the Fighting Fifth Hurdle as the main contests at Newbury and Newcastle – As always, we’ve got all the ITV TV trends to help you find the best winning profile of past winners of the main races.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

4 previous runnings
All four winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
2 of the last 4 winners trained by Nicky Henderson
3 of the last 4 winners were aged 6 years-old
Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have won this race in the past
2 winning favourites (joint) in the last 4 years
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Tom Lacey has a 27% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 3% record with his hurdlers at the track

 

2.25 Ladbrokes Gerry Fielden Intermediate Handicap (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) Cl1 2m69y ITV

13/14 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/14 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
11/14 – Irish, French or German bred
11/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/14 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
7/14 – Had raced at Newbury before
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/14 – Aged 5 years-old
5/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/14 – Won last time out
8 of the last 13 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Epatante (3/1) won the race in 2019
Global Citizen (5/1) won the race in 2018

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y

16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
16/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
15/18 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/18 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
12/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/18 – Rated between 140 and 151
12/18 – Had a previous run that season
10/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (29 runnings) there have been 14 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

 

3.35- Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV

16/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/18 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/18 – French bred
10/18 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
10/18 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
10/18 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
9/18 – Placed in their last race
9/18 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
10 of the last 14 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
Magic Saint (3/1 fav) won the race in 2019

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)


2.05 – BetFair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

18/18 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
16/18 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
16/18 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
15/18 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
15/18 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Officially rated 151 or higher
12/18 – Won their last race
11/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/18 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
8/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/18 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/18 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
4/18 – Won by an Irish based yard
4/18 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (4 of last 12)
3/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 6/1

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

 

3.15 – BetFair Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV

15/16 – Didn’t win their last race
14/16 – Irish bred
14/16 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
13/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/16 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Aged 8 years-old
4/16 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older
Takinrisks (20/1) won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad (5/1) won the race in 2018
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Otago Trial won the race in 2016
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

 

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Lingfield Handicap Preview: Pace Likely To Dominate Mile Races Yet Again

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Last week I examined two one mile handicaps at Lingfield with some success (7/2 winner and 9/1 placed). Having highlighted a strong pace bias at the course in that article, it was no surprise that the winners of both races were ridden prominently. And we might just see something similar again in the 11.35 at Lingfield on Saturday, another one mile handicap.

Pace

I looked at two contrasting field sizes last week to compare the differences in pace bias. This week we have a ten runner handicap so let’s see what the data tell us:

Once again we are seeing a strong pace bias towards those that lead in this sort of field size. Backing front runners blind has been hugely profitable and leaders have an IV of 1.32.

As you go back in the field the Win%, Place% and IV figures all gradually decrease. The closer you are to the pace here, the more advantage you have.

Draw

We can use the great tools on Geegeez to get insights here, too. This time it’s the turn of the Draw Analyser:

Looking at any metric that relates to winners here would suggest middle draws are advantaged and low draws are disadvantaged. The Place% figures slightly back that up although they are much closer together than the Win% figures; and PRB suggests that there is very little in the draw over this distance between all stall positions.

Looking at every single stall in the data range used see a variance of just 0.03 between the single ‘best’ stall and the single ‘worst’ stall so realistically there is no obvious draw bias at all.

A look at the pace and draw combination might shed some light on some micro situations where there could be a draw bias.

Pace and Draw Combination

I mention this a lot but I’m a really big fan of the pace and draw heat map that’s available on both the Draw Analyser page and also the Draw tab on the racecards. Just because there isn’t an overall draw bias it doesn’t mean that certain run styles aren’t advantaged or disadvantaged based on their stall position.

By displaying the PRB data in the heat map we are making use of as much data as possible from every qualifying race.

The standout takeaway from this is that the biggest advantage is with high drawn front runners. Two furlongs are run over this course and distance before the runners head into the bend so there is no obvious reason why higher drawn front runners do better than lower drawn front runners but it appears they do enjoy an advantage.

There aren’t many massively disadvantaged positions based on the draw but it does seem those that are drawn high and further back in the field have a slight disadvantage from their positions on average.

The Runners

We’ve established the pace advantage so the pace map for this race will tell us if any of the runners are likely to get the run of the race or if the pace advantage could be nullified by a contested speed.

This race certainly should not be run at a crawl with Lalania, Ruby Gates and At Ease all comfortable going forward.

Starting with At Ease, who is the early favourite, Charles Hills has good course form with six wins from seventeen runners in the past five years. His handicap debutants are also profitable here in that period, producing a 23.81% win record and an IV of 2.1.

Looking at the horse itself, form is limited after just two starts. She was entitled to need the run first time out and ran respectably in the circumstances and she followed that up with a novice win over a mile at Chelmsford. Gaining a handicap mark based on a front running victory around Chelmsford can be a dangerous game given runners of that nature will generally be seen to best effect there but there should be a similar advantage here at least.

The bare form of her win was decent enough. She beat 84 rated Mars Landing (probably not flattered by that rating but is hard to win with) by 0.75 lengths in receipt of 5lbs. The pair were 7 lengths clear of the third. She could easily have been handed a rating around 80 which would have been quite interesting given she has clear room for improvement and it seems the handicapper has let her in lightly off a mark of 74 here. She’s a high drawn front runner and appears to have every chance.

I’m Available is challenging her at the head of the market at the time of writing and she comes here off the back of a staying on third at Wolverhampton on her latest start. She has previously won at a mile but all her best form over the past year has been at 7f. She’s likely to be held up and the form of her Kempton win two starts ago was certainly nothing special (the second, fourth and fifth were all well enough beaten next time out) and she’s much easier to oppose here than At Ease.

Others who look opposable also include Kwela who despite a decent return from wind surgery last time is now back on a career high mark and has been beaten in three runs off lower marks here. One Small Step was behind Kwela last time with little optimism for reversing that form here.

The importance of strong Lingfield course form was discussed in last week’s preview as it can be a slightly quirky track that brings out the very best in some runners. Course form is certainly no worry for the likes of Stay Classy and Lalania, both of whom have been tried at listed level this season.

Stay Classy’s form is fairly hit and miss but she’s two from three at this venue, her only defeat coming in a class 2 handicap. Her wins came off marks of 82 and 83, both with the 7lb claim of Angus Villiers who was very good value for that claim, and in her defeat she was beaten 3.25 off 89 without a claimer so without a claimer again here she is probably still a little high in the weights. There is also a fair chance she is slightly better at 7f too.

Lalania has been a revelation this season, winning four races in 2020 rising a total of 19lbs in the handicap. The big question is whether or not the handicapper has got her yet. She was runner up off a 9lb lower mark on her last handicap run at this distance but the 1st, 4th and 5th have all won since so that was clearly a smart effort. She also won on her next start to frank that form further. That win came at 7f and the 4th and 5th won next time out with the 3rd and 6th placing since so she has a strong catalogue of form and she’s only 4lbs higher than that effort.

She’s a speedy sort for a mile which is great around here and she’ll be on the pace from her low draw. She has proven this course suits well with a 4 length victory on her last run at this venue. That win came at 6f and she had previously run well here over just 5f, finishing a fast finishing 2nd.

The downside of Lalania is she is likely to be taken on for the lead (she doesn’t have to lead though and should be happy enough to track the leader) and she no longer has the services of Hollie Doyle who has struck up a nice partnership with the horse, riding her on her last four victories.

Ruby Gates is the other pace angle who has not yet been mentioned. She made all last time out in a five runner, class 5 handicap. She’s up 3lbs for that and has never won above that recent winning mark, nor has she won in seven runs in class 4 company.

The only runners yet to be mentioned are Lady Eleanor, Sunset Kiss and Delicate Kiss.

The former is lightly raced and is yet to get within 4.75 lengths of the winner in four handicap starts. Those runs all came at 7f and she’s shaped a few times as though worth a go at a mile but she doesn’t look well enough handicapped to win this and is high enough drawn for a hold up performer.

Sunset Kiss is also lightly raced and went from winning a Wolverhampton maiden by 2 lengths to being beaten 41 lengths on handicap debut. She had previously shown a decent level of form on turf so a first encounter with heavy ground looks to blame for that effort. She shouldn’t be badly handicapped and is overpriced but has plenty of questions to answer obviously.

Delicate Kiss was behind Kwela and One Small Step at Kempton last time out but is only 1lb higher than when 2nd at Chelmsford on her previous start. The winner hasn’t done much for that form in two runs since and the handicapper probably has her now.

Final Verdict

So the two I’m most interested in here are the well fancied At Ease and the progressive Lalania. They should both be well placed, assuming they don’t compromise each other’s chances by getting into a competition for the early lead.

At Ease has the front runner/high draw angle, the trainer/course record is profitable and she looks to have been let into handicaps lightly but she’s yet to run here.

Lalania should be well placed and has very few questions to answer. She was admittedly beaten 15 lengths last time but that was in Listed company in a big field. It’s possible she is a couple of pounds higher in the ratings now than ideal but she still has enough in her favour to run well at what could be pretty generous odds (a very early 10/1).

I’ll be backing Lalania each way and covering the pair in a reverse forecast. The options for third are plentiful but Sunset Kiss certainly shouldn't be written off.

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