More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Sandown, York and Chester this and as always Andy Newton’s got all the key trends & stats to help you narrow down the fields, and hopefully point you in the direction of a few winners.
Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)
2.15 – Coral ‘Beaten By A Length’ Free Bet Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4
16/16 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
13/16 – Had won over 5f before
13/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
10/16 – Came from stall 7 or higher
10/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
8/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/16 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
5/16 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
2/16 – Trained by Michael Bell
2/16 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5-9 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
2.50 – Play Coral ‘Racing-Super-Series’ For Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4
8 previous runnings
7/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Had won over 1m before
7/8 – Rated between 90-94
7/8 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight
6/8 – Aged 4 years-old
6/8 – Had won between 2-4 times before
6/8 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
5/8 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
5/8 – Had run at the course before
4/8 – Ran at either Sandown (2) or Newmarket (2) last time out
3/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 5/1
15/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Carried 9-11 or more
14/17 – Had run over 1m4f or further previously
14/17 – Had at least 2 previous runs already that season (flat)
14/17 – Aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Rated between 80-89
13/17 – Won from a single-figure stall
12/17 – Had run at York before
12/17 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
11/17 – Favourites placed in the top four
11/17 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/17 – Had won at least 3 times before (flat)
9/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/17 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
7/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/17 – Winners that came from stalls 3 or 4
4/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/17 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby
4/17 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Miss J Coward
2/17 – Placed horses from stall 2
Arctic Fox (5/1) won the race in 2019
2.35 –JCB Handicap Cl2 7f ITV4
Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
5/5 – Unplaced favourites
5/5 – Had raced at York before
4/5 – Rated between 90-99
4/5 – Came from a single-figure stall
3/5 – Won over 7f before
3/5 – Aged 4 years-old
2/5 – Came from stall 9
0/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 12.5/1
3.05 –Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4
11/12 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
11/12 – Officially rated 103 or higher
10/12 – Had raced in the last 2 months
10/12 – Drawn in stalls 1-7 (inc)
10/12 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/12 – Won at least 4 times before (flat)
9/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Ran at the track before
2/12 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/12 – Winners from stall 1
Note: The 2014 running was a dead-heat
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
3.40 –Pavers Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4
13/15 – Rated between 87-97
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
12/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby (inc 3 of the last 7 runnings)
2/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
8 of the last 11 winners came from a single-figure draw
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Carried between 8-10 and 9-1 in weight
3/3 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/3 – Drawn from stalls 2-6 (inc)
1/3 – Winning favourites
Won by trainers, Tom Dascombe, Richard Hughes and Richard Fahey
Trainer Tm Easterby has a 18% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Just two previous runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding won the race in 2018
Trainer David Simcock won the race in 2019
Both winners carried between 8-5 and 8-6 in weight
Both winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winning favourites
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 25% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-06-11 13:00:112021-06-10 12:53:35Sat TV Trends: 12th June 2021
Most trainers, jockeys and bettors will have one eye on Royal Ascot here but there is still some good racing on Saturday and most of the live races look fairly solvable – ahead of a week where there will be many impossible looking puzzles!
This week’s preview is going to focus on the 2.35 at York, an eleven runner 7f handicap at York that will be shown live on ITV4.
Not the biggest field so unlikely to be much draw advantage but let’s see.
The win data here slightly favours middle draws, whilst the place percentages and PRB data suggest there is a very slight edge towards those drawn high. A difference of just 0.02 PRB between low draws and high draws suggest there is pretty much nothing in the draw in this field size and it’s pretty evident you can win from anywhere.
Don’t let the draw put you off anything or draw you towards any of the runners in this contest.
Pace
There are some significant pace biases over shorter distances here at York, but what about at 7f?
Once again we see some very fair data for this field size. The win and place percentages both suggest there is a marginal advantage by being slightly closer to the pace but with so little difference it looks a very fair course and distance. The place percentage for front runners in these conditions is 29.31% and the place percentage for hold ups is 28.13% so everything has a very even chance it seems.
Pace Map
With very little natural pace bias here the pace of this individual race should have a much larger bearing on the outcome than the course.
Not a huge amount of pace on here with Dazzling Dan looking most likely to take them along. It’s worth noting that Manigordo has been on the pace in two of his last three runs but he was unable to lead last time against several other front runners. Up in trip and with less pace on here he’ll have no problem getting the lead if he wants it.
National League is tactically flexible and has made the running in the recent past. He was held up last time but that was when slowly away at Chester from stall 8. Expect him to be much closer early on in this.
Ostilio has been a front runner for much of his career but he’s shown no spark in either of his runs this term. It’s difficult to expect anything different from him here but if he was back on his game he is potentially another pace angle.
Whatever happens this will probably be run at an even tempo. The likes of Golden Apollo and Queens Sargent will certainly be hoping the pace setters go off too fast as it will suit their come from behind style.
The Runners
A run through of each horse’s chance, in early odds order.
Dazzling Dan
He’d only previously tried 7f on heavy ground before this season but won comfortably on his first attempt at the trip on fast ground at Yarmouth, albeit only a four runner race, before a respectable 3rd over the trip on good ground at Newmarket, a course where he has historically shown his best form.
He finished his 3yo season rated 104 and after an indifferent 2020 he was given a wind op when rated 90. His Yarmouth win was off 87 and he's back up to 91 here leaving him still well handicapped on his older form. It’s difficult to judge the strength of the form of either of his runs at this trip this season but it is worth noting that he was ridden prominently last time out, as were four of the first five home. He's also not guaranteed to be as good at York as he is at Newmarket.
Gifted Ruler
Lightly raced having had just five starts, two of which came last year as a 3yo. On this first of those he was 9th of 11 at Lingfield, not beaten a great distance and looking as though in need of a stiffer test. He then improved dramatically on that effort back on turf, beaten just a short head in a six runner contest. That form was okay but nothing special. He’s been gelded since.
He’s still got plenty of potential but does need to improve again and he’s seemingly improved for a run in both seasons so far so could need this.
Baashir
Unraced as a 2yo and started last season well with a narrow 2nd on debut (winner gave him 7lbs and rated as high as 91 that season) followed by an easy win on his next start in a weak novice. His form tailed off on his next two starts and he was subsequently gelded.
Started this season in good form again, finishing 2nd to Cryuff Turn at Nottingham. The winner won again two starts later whilst the 3rd was beaten just a nose on his next run so that’s strong form but that race was run over a mile on good to soft ground. Baashir was then dropped back to this 7f on his next start, at Chelmsford and was beaten 4 lengths, not in the same form. It’s not clear if this horse needs easy ground, a mile or is best fresh. It’s possible all three are the case. He’s opposable at 7f on fast ground but would have strong claims if able to repeat the form of his run behind Cryuff Turn.
Manigordo
Won at 25/1 three starts ago when making all over 6f at Thirsk in a race where not much got into it. That effort looked a fluke when he beat just one home at York but that race did come on easier ground and he bounced back to form next time out when 3rd at Hamilton on faster ground. When winning at Thirsk he was reported to have improved for the drop back to 6f but on his latest run he did look worth another crack at 7f, for all he didn’t look particularly well handicapped.
National League
I was quite keen to be with this horse last season and flagged him up at the St Leger meeting when he was 3rd at 25/1. He still hasn’t won since his 2yo days though and has to be considered a disappointment.
His best form has generally come on the all weather or on ground with plenty of dig in it, which is a worry here, but his 2nd at 7f on good to firm at Redcar this season was a good effort as was his 7th in the Spring Cup at Newbury on ground that was just on the fast side of good. He was slowly away last time at Chester and never picked up. The consequence of that has been connections deciding to dispense with the visor. It’s difficult to make a strong case for him, especially for win purposes, but it would be no surprise if he placed.
Golden Apollo
He's run well in some big sprint handicaps here in the past and although he’s done most of his racing at 6f, he has run well on all four attempts at this course and distance despite the fact that records will show he didn’t place in any of them.
He won the Ayr Silver Cup less than two years ago off this mark so isn’t badly handicapped, it’s just a question of his current form. He ended last season with a poor run in the Ayr Silver Cup and then didn’t look competitive on his seasonal debut at Haydock last time out, albeit on pretty testing ground. He has generally improved not only for his come back run each season, but also his second run, so it’s possible next time may be the best time to catch him although he could run well here.
Queen’s Sargent
Seems to have become poorly handicapped since his win in April and has been beaten in all ten handicap starts that have come off a mark of 87 or higher. Only two of those have come over 7f on fast ground though and on both of those occasions he has gone close to placing, beaten 2.25 lengths each time, in much deeper, big field handicaps. He’s probably not quite well handicapped enough to win this but should run well and might not get a better opportunity to win off this mark.
Admirality
One that has potentially been overlooked too much by the bookmakers for this race. I previewed the Haydock race in which he made his seasonal debut and I wrote this about his chances:
“A frustrating 7yo who has won just once in eighteen runs for Roger Fell but finished runner up on five occasions in that same period. He’s relatively versatile but is probably at his best over 7f on fast ground, his last nine turf runs on good or better at this distance have yielded form figures of 222133522. He won first time out two seasons ago but seemed to improve for the run last year. No seasonal debutant has even placed from this yard in the past 30 days from twelve runners which is a concern.”
He duly ran as though needing the run, competing 1.5f out and getting very tired in the closing stages. A drop back to 6f on soft ground next time was never going to suit so that ran is forgivable too and he finds himself back under ideal conditions, 4lbs better off than he started the season.
He has run well in 2nd on both course and distance starts, finishing runner up to a course specialist on the first of those efforts on ground that was probably slightly softer than ideal before being beaten only by Documenting, a horse that would win a big field Ascot handicap on his next start off a 6lb higher mark.
Admirality is certainly not a horse to trust in a finish, he’s finished runner up five times since he last won, but he should outrun his odds here.
Golden Spear
Won in good style at Chester last month (had previously run well there) but hasn’t been in the same form in two starts since. He’s run some decent races here at York in the past but has been a non runner three times on good to firm in the past and the only time he has been allowed to run on ground this fast he was below form. The chances of him running a career best on fast ground look slim, being declared a non runner looks more likely.
Ostilio
Won the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot as a 3yo and finished that season a Group 2 winner, rated as high as 115. He still won a listed race last season but since moving to Paul Midgely he is yet to beat a rival in three tries, being beaten 47 lengths, 31 lengths and 20 lengths respectively. He’s only been dropped 2lbs since his last run so a sudden revival doesn’t look on the cards.
Troubador
Showed good form here (and elsewhere) as a 2yo and although he ran well on his second start as a 3yo he seemed to run progressively poorer as the season went on last year, being beaten 13 lengths on his only try at 7f (on good to firm), before being beaten 16 lengths here over 6f. He was beaten 10 lengths on his seasonal debut this year and looks best opposed.
The Verdict
I can’t confidently rule out any of the first eight in the betting here, and I don’t fancy any of them particularly strongly to win either! Dazzling Dan is probably the right favourite given he’s run well in these conditions on two recent starts and he seems a bit more consistent than most of these. Baashir looks a better handicapped horse but he’s yet to prove he can go on from his early season runs.
Most interesting at the prices are probably QUEEN'S SARGENT and ADMIRALITY, who both have ideal conditions and both of whom seem pretty consistent when getting these conditions. On a meeting at Thirsk (a course both enjoy) last season there is very little between them on these terms so they could finish close together yet again.
I’m not convinced Queen’s Sargent is quite well enough handicapped to win nor am I convinced Admirality has the bottle to finish better than 2nd. Both are around 10/1 so could be considered each way wagers but the bets I’d be most interested in would be Admirality to finish exactly 2nd (usually available with SkyBet as a minimum on day of race, he can be backed to finish 2nd to the field in forecasts as an alternative) and also a Tote Swinger on the pair. Not a race to get heavily involved in though.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/racingfotos_54810711165.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-06-11 12:06:132021-06-11 12:14:31Two Against The Field At Prices In Live York Handicap
There is some great live action at Epsom on Saturday and although ITV are showing the first five races from their card it’s possible the two most interesting betting races are the pair of contests that act as the Derby meeting’s finale. This preview is going to concentrate on the ‘Northern Dancer Handicap’, which will be run at 5.15pm over the Derby trip of 12f.
Draw advantages can often be stronger at shorter distances, is there a bias over this longer trip?
There looks to be a pretty strong draw bias here on ground ranging from good to firm down to good to soft. The sample size isn’t the biggest but even if you include non-handicap data the trends are still the same.
In similar field sizes to this there have been no low drawn handicap winners in thirteen races. Nine have come from middle draws and seven have come from high draws. With a small sample size the place percentages and PRB figures are much more relevant but they too back up the win data.
The place percentages for low, middle and high draws are 14.06%, 27.42% and 34.38% respectively. The PRB figures are 0.42, 0.52 and 0.56 respectively. Those are some hefty jumps in performance, especially between low and middle. It seems a high draw is favoured over middle but a middle draw certainly shouldn’t be deemed a disadvantage, it’s far more preferable to a low draw.
Let’s dig deeper into the individual stall data.
Looking at the PRB data for each gate, stalls 3 and 6 actually perform pretty well but remember we have a small sample here and the four worst figures belong to stalls 5, 1, 2 and 4 strongly suggest a low draw is a negative. In fact the worst six stalls for PRB are all 8 or below.
The PRB3 data shows an average of the stall in question and the two stalls either side and looking at the line graph above featuring the PRB3 data it clearly shows the higher the draw the better over this distance. Each runner is going to enjoy a slight advantage over the runner drawn slightly lower.
Pace
Is the pace bias as strong as the draw data?
The win percentage data seems to suggest a strong front running bias in similar field sizes in handicaps with a 14.63% win percentage for front runners compared to 7.37% for prominent, 8.82% for mid division and 9.85% for held up.
However we have a pretty small sample of races here and the place percentage data should give us a more accurate representation of any pace biases. The place percentages here are 26.83% for front runners, 24.21% for prominent, 30.88% for mid division and 30.30% for held up. The place data seems to suggest this is an extremely fair course and distance in terms of pace bias.
It’s entirely possible that the win percentage data for front runners isn’t misleading. Front runners can slip the field when getting an easy lead but I wouldn’t worry too much about any pace biases over this distance unless the pace map for a particular race suggests an extreme, one way or another.
Pace Map
It seems the pace setup of this individual race is far more likely to create a pace bias than the course itself.
There are three contenders for the lead here. Group One Power made all over course and distance last month before leading at Ascot on his next start. He went 5 lengths clear at one stage under today’s jockey Silvestre De Souza and he seems highly likely to try to grab the lead in this.
Australis often likes to front run but he’s dropping back half a mile in trip and isn’t guaranteed to have the early pace to head Group One Power. In fact he’s been unable to lead early on his last four turf starts.
Lost Eden has led or been ridden prominently on all four career starts. A couple of those were penalty kicks though in hindsight and on his latest run, at listed level, he was ridden handily. Perhaps those will be the tactics again here.
Whatever happens there should be a ‘fair’ gallop on so pace shouldn’t be a huge consideration for all it will play it’s part.
Draw and Pace Combination
As usual the draw and pace combination heat map is well worth a look before we go through the runners.
The above includes non-handicap races too in order to get a much bigger data sample, but tells a similar story to the handicap only heat map. A huge draw is advantageous, as we know, but high drawn runners from mid division under perform for whatever reason. There is almost now difference between front running, being prominent or being held up from a high draw. Prominent underperforms for the middle draws and it is interesting to see the more patient the ride the better for low drawn runners. Low drawn runners that try to get near the lead do not fare well.
The Runners
This is the full list of twelve runners, in early odds order.
Group One Power
This Andrew Balding trained runner has a likeable profile having won three of his seven starts and only disappointing once so far (off for 284 days after that so seemingly had an issue). He’s gone up 6lbs in two runs this season but could still be well handicapped based on his Royal Ascot form from last season.
Group One Power was only beaten 1.5 lengths in that race off a 6lb lower mark than he carries here and the winner has subsequently rated 24lbs higher, the runner up 12lbs higher, the 3rd 23lbs higher, the 5th 14lbs higher, the 6th 7lbs higher, the 8th 24lbs higher and the 9th 5lbs higher. That’s as hot as hot form gets!
He's likely to lead from a fairly high draw in 8 and he’s already won over course and distance. He has been beaten on both runs on soft ground though and would almost certainly like a drying day on Saturday.
Lost Eden
Unsuited by soft ground in a listed race at Ascot last time out and was also found to have had an irregular heartbeat when beaten 128 lengths. He’d previously won a maiden and a novice over 10f at Lingfield but 2 lengths and 9 lengths respectively but didn’t seem to beat a whole lot in those races (the runner up in his novice has been beaten in handicaps off a mark of 68 since). The handicapper faced a pretty thankless task having to find an official rating for this one and 98 possibly flatters him on what he has achieved so far.
He might be well handicapped (was thrown into a listed race after all), but he has to prove his well being after his last run, his effectiveness on turf (especially after Friday's rain) and he could just as easily be very badly handicapped off that mark.
Andrea Atzeni has an A/E of 1.24 and an IV of 2.14 here over 10f+ so you could maybe mark up the horse’s chances a little but he seems very opposable at the price.
Soto Sizzler
A bit of a course specialist having won twice and finished runner up once from three course and distance starts. The wins came off 83 and 88 and his defeat was off 92, when bumping into Group One Power last month. He was only beaten three quarters of a length and although he’s 2lbs higher he’s 4lbs better off so would have a chance of reversing the form. However he is drawn in stall 2 and that seems a fairly big negative (he was drawn 11 for both his victories). His most recent run can be forgiven as he didn’t seem to stay 14f but the draw makes him far less interesting than Group One Power, even at the relative prices.
Midnights Legacy
A horse that looked to be going places last June when winning twice, beating the well handicapped but quirky Indigo Lake on the most recent of those wins. He seemingly lost his form after that and was then inconsistent on the all weather over the winter. He found only the improving Opera Gift too good at Salisbury on his return to turf last month. That was decent form (4th went close next time out, 5th won since) and the drop back to this trip will probably suit better. Still well handicapped on his best form but he’s not always the most reliable.
Wait For The Lord
David Elsworth’s 5yo mare has had a slightly unconventional career, starting life in bumpers before winning an all weather novice, followed by an okay run in listed company before a handicap debut off a mark of 95 in January. She found Lingfield’s 10f sharp enough but ran well enough in 4th and the winner and runner up have both won since.
After a 96 day break she was too keen twice and ran poorly but she ran well enough last time out at Group 3 level on good to soft on her first start at this trip. She seemed to run to her rating in 4th and could find a more truly run handicap more in her favour, but she’s drawn in stall 3 which won’t help her chances here.
Red Force One
He's gradually worked his way up in trip over the years winning over 13f on his latest start in a four runner Ayr handicap. The runner up won next time out (up in trip) and he won his race much easier than the official margin suggests but that win came slightly out of the blue and he’s not guaranteed to back that up off a 5lb higher mark in a much tougher contest. Good draw in 9 and not without a chance though.
The Trader
In excellent form last summer, winning or placing in all three starts, before missing the rest of the flat season. He was in mixed form over the winter on the all weather (best effort was a 2nd off a 3lb lower mark) but has won on turf already this season, albeit over a furlong further at Hamilton. He didn’t back that up under a penalty next time and his overall profile doesn’t suggest he’s good enough to win this off 95, especially from stall 1. Has made the running in the past but tends to be handy more often than not. Goes on any ground.
Australis
First or second in eight out of nine starts on artificial surfaces but no wins and just three runners up spots on turf. Those efforts came off marks in the 70s and he’s yet to get within 7 lengths of the winner on turf off marks in the 90s. All his best form, even on the all weather, is over further than this too so this is probably just a prep run for the Northumberland Plate later this month, a race in which he was a close 2nd last year. One of the easier ones to oppose for sure.
Autumn War
Lost his form for Charles Hills in 2019 when looking well handicapped off marks in the mid to high 80s and then missed a year before moving to Ian Williams. He was beaten out of site on his yard debut before winning twice on the all weather moved up to 14f, with cheekpieces added. He was then found to be lame when disappointing on his next start and ran as though needing a return to 14f on his latest start three months ago (went without the cheekpieces that day). He still looks to have mileage in him from this mark but he’d be a more reliable proposition in headgear, on the all weather and over further. Fairly interesting but this probably isn’t the time to catch him, possibly another being aimed at the Northumberland Plate.
Frontispiece
A reliable yardstick who was around 8 lengths behind Group One Power last time at Ascot. Loves softer ground so Friday's rain is in his favour and on the evidence of his seasonal debut he'd have a leading chance here given he was 4th and the 1st, 2nd and 6th amongst others have come out of that race and won. That race did come at Newbury though and he seems to save his very best for that course. His chance has definitely been underestimated here but he'd make far more appeal at Newbury.
Koeman
Has a much better strike rate on the all weather than turf but has won off a 2lb higher mark than this on turf. Difficult to tell what kind of form he’s in given soft ground wouldn’t have suited last time and he probably hasn’t been staying two miles previous to that. He’s not the most consistent though and he’ll probably need a career best to win this.
Percy Street
A rare runner at this venue for David Pipe and the last two went off at big prices over this trip and were very well beaten. This horse has run poorly on the flat in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 and will probably make it a five timer here by running poorly on the flat in 2020.
The Verdict
I really expected to find this more competitive than it seems to be after closer inspection. There are several in with some sort of chance but they largely have some major negatives. Lost Eden remains with potential but looks poor value all things considered, Soto Sizzler has a lot going for him but isn’t fantastically handicapped and is poorly drawn, Midnights Legacy looks fairly handicapped still but is unreliable whilst Wait For The Lord, Red Force One and The Trader probably need easier opportunities.
At the time of writing 10/3 is available on GROUP ONE POWER and it looks a very fair price. His chance is probably improved by this race being run at 5.15pm with a full drying day likely. He’s one of the few that have proven course form and he definitely still looks well handicapped.
I'd also be interested in having a saver on FRONTISPIECE. He should be well placed given it didn't seem easy to challenge from off the pace on Friday and 20/1+ seems to underestimate his chances even if he does seem to be best at Newbury. His form from his penultimate run is excellent and he could easily end up in the places here (lots of bookies paying 4th).
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Anapurna_PinkDogwood_Oaks_830x320.jpg320830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-06-04 14:39:182021-06-04 14:39:18Early Favourite Has The Power At Epsom
Another busy Saturday of horse racing ahead with the LIVE ITV action this week coming from Chester, Beverley and Haydock. As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – use these to help narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.
Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.40 – tote+ Pays You More At tote.co.uk Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 7 ½ f ITV
Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
5/5 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
5/5 – Won over at least 7 1/2f before
5/5 – Rated between 90-99
5/5 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
4/5 – Aged 5 or older
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Ran at York (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
4/5 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
3/5 – Won 6+ times
3/5 – Placed favourites
3/5 – Had won at the track before
3/5 – Aged 7 or 8
3/5 – Drawn between stalls 5-7 (inc)
1/5 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 11/2
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.45 - Betway Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 6f ITV
Only three previous runnings
3/3 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
3/3 – Drawn in double-figures
3/3 – Carried between 8-10 and 9-4 in weight
3/3 – Drawn between stalls 10-16 (inc)
2/3 – Aged 4 years-old
2/3 – Trained by David O’Meara
0/3 – Winning favourites
Trainer Ed Walker has a 28% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 28% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Dods has a 24% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Keith Dalgleish is just 1-from-26 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 4-from-83 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke is just 2-from-39 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is just 1-from-19 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
12/12 – Returned 14/1 or shorter
11/12 – Aged 5 or older
11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Had won over 5f before
9/12 – Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc)
9/12 – Had run at the course before
9/12 – Had raced in the last 10 weeks
9/12 – Won between 6-8 times before
9/12 – Had finished in the top 5 last time out
8/12 – Winning distance 1 length or less
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1
17/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
16/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Rated 92 or higher
14/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Aged 4 years-old
13/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
6/18 – Had run at Haydock before
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
3.30 - Betway John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV
16/17 – Rated 107 or higher
16/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
14/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won over 7f before
12/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/17 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
11/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/17 – Favourites placed
5/17 – Had run at the track before
5/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 - Aged 9 years-old
Safe Voyage (5/4 fav) won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
13/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had won over 5f before
12/15 – Had won just once before
11/15 – Irish bred
11/15 – Had raced in the last 2 weeks
11/15 – Had raced between 1-2 times before
9/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Placed favourites
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/15 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/15 – Raced at York last out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/15– Ridden by Jamie Spencer
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/2
The last 10 winners drawn 9 or lower
8 or the last 10 winners were foaled in Feb or March
8 of last 11 winners have been drawn in stalls 6-9 (inc)
3.10 – bet365 Continental Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Colts & Geldings Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV
11/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Feb, March or April bred
11/11 – Drawn in 6 or lower
9/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – Won over 5f before
8/11 – Won at least once before
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Had raced twice or more
6/11 – Irish bred
6/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Drawn in stall 1
3/11 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/11 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The Richard Hannon yard have a 43% record with their 2 year-olds at the track
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-05-28 13:00:082021-05-27 10:17:58Sat TV Trends: 29th May 2021
Not the greatest line up for the ITV cameras this weekend ahead of next week’s Epsom classics but some decent enough handicaps, complicated slightly by how much the ground will be drying during what we can finally call ‘summer weather’. One of the more interesting betting races of the weekend could be run at Chester, their 7.5f handicap at 2.40pm features several in form contenders and as you’ll expect at Chester, there will be a strong draw and pace bias.
Everyone knows about the draw bias at Chester but it does vary depending on distance, how strong is it over this 7.5f trip?
A field of twelve go to post here (although a couple of high drawn withdrawals can never be ruled out at this venue) and we have a decent enough sample size on this sort of ground.
Unsurprisingly the low draws provide most winners but there is not as much between low and middle as you may think. Low draws have a win percentage of 11.18% compared to middle’s 9.72%. The place percentages are almost identical and there isn’t a massive amount between the PRB figures either (0.55 for low draws, 0.52 for middle).
The market clearly hasn’t reacted to the fact that middle draws perform only very slightly worse than low draws - middle draws have been profitable to back both win and each way and produce the best A/E figures.
What is also clear is that a high draw definitely is a disadvantage with a PRB of just 0.43.
There is bound to be a point at which a good draw starts becoming a bad draw so let’s take a look at the individual stall data.
Ignoring the data for stall 13 (small sample size and only 12 runners here), the best stalls appear to be 2, 6 and 8 when looking at the PRB figures. There is a massive drop off in performance when looking at stalls 9, 10, 11 and 12, which are the four worst stalls, and it looks like you certainly don’t want to be drawn any higher than 8. It’s interesting that stall 8 has a strong PRB figure of 0.55 yet has only produced a single winner from thirty-eight races. A horse can clearly run well from stall 8 but a place looks far more likely than a win from there.
Stalls 1 to 7 inclusive have generated 79% of the winners in this sample so unless you have found something you think could place at a big price or has a massive amount in hand of the handicapper you are best off concentrating on these seven stalls to find the likely winner.
Pace
Draw is rarely an underestimated factor at Chester but pace regularly is. How strong a pace bias is there over this trip?
The front running bias isn’t as strong as over some shorter distances here but it certainly still exists. Front runners have both the best win percentage (11.29%) and place percentage (38.71%). The success rate falls steadily for both win percentages and place percentages the further back in the field you go and it’s interesting that whilst there isn’t much between front running and racing prominently as far as win percentage goes, front running produces a far superior place percentage. Front running is the only style of racing that produces a profit here and it does so for both win and each way bets.
Pace Map
This is the pace map for this race, based on the last two runs of each runner.
Not a huge amount of pace in this one, with Ejtilaab looking a likely pace angle from stall 1. Alexander James and Hey Jonsey look likely to track the pace and be well placed from their favourable draws whilst the likes of Mission Boy, Another Batt, King’s Knight, Hayadh and even Azano would ideally want to be at least handy but the higher they are drawn, they better they’ll need to break to get their desired positions without being posted very wide.
With so many prominent racers in this field the higher drawn prominent racers risk going too hard to get to the front, being posted very wide if they race where they’d normally race or being positioned further back than they’d normally like.
A lot of Hayadh’s form is over further so whether he has the early pace to get across is open to debate. Azano would ordinarily try to lead, he missed the break a couple of starts back so had to settle for racing handily and he certainly won’t get near the lead if he misses the break here from stall 12.
Those in the rear are likely to struggle given the lack of likely breakneck pace around this course so the likes of Boardman, Tadleel, Via Serendipity and Gabrial The Wire are likely to be at a disadvantage.
Draw and Pace Combination
With such a strong draw advantage and pace bias it’s pretty likely the draw and pace combination heat map will show if these advantages and disadvantages are compounded when put together.
Unsurprisingly the combination of a low draw and early pace is very effective with a PRB of 0.60 for front runners from low draws. Being prominent from a low draw is also a big advantage but the advantage of being drawn low tapers off the more patiently a horse is ridden.
Being in mid division from a middle draw is surprisingly the best position according to these PRB figures, it’s also the third best place to be according to the win percentages. There aren’t any runners in this drawn in the middle that consistently race in mid division though.
A high draw can be overcome if the runner is able to reach the lead. Statistically the worst place to be is prominent from a high draw and there are definitely several contenders who seem likely to be stuck there.
The Runners
This is the full field, in early odds order.
Ejtilaab
A very obvious starting point given he ran well at Chester’s May meeting, over this course and distance, on this kind of ground. That run was better than it seems for several reasons. As discussed above, the very high stalls have a poor record here and he was drawn in stall 10. He was also ridden prominently, the worst kind of ride statistically for a high drawn runner.
The only two runners to finish in front of him from that race that have raced since have both won whilst the 6th and 10th have also won since and the 8th has finished runner up since. That’s extremely hot form.
The ground would also have been soft enough for Ejtilaab that day with all his best form coming on good or better ground. By race time it should be at least good here.
Ejtilaab looks likely to go forward from stall 1, putting him in the ideal position, and he has another good run at this course to his name having finished 2nd to Wild Edric last September. That runner is a bit of a Chester specialist with two wins and two runners up places there whilst the 3rd was Baby Steps, a horse that has finished placed at Chester in all seven previous runs there. Ejtilaab is 7lbs higher here but he’s evidently still improving and even his last win off a 4lb lower mark shows he is still well handicapped – the runner up won on his next start and the 3rd has won since too.
The main concern here is the form of the Ian Williams yard. In handicaps in the past three months Williams has a PRB of 0.50 and that has dropped to 0.43 in the past 30 days. In the last couple of weeks the majority of runners have been well beaten but there have also been a few winners too.
Another Batt
A comfortable winner last time out at Thirsk on soft ground having been 1.75 lengths behind Ejtilaab at Chester the run before when better drawn. As a result of that win Another Batt is now 3lbs worse off.
His last two runs have come at Thirsk but he did win here as a 3yo and he has previously won a handicap off a 9lb higher mark at Meydan in 2019. He’s probably not as good as he was back then and drying ground is almost certainly against him but he’s just about okay drawn in stall 7 and is capable on a going day.
Boardman
An easy winner on his last two starts but now 10lbs higher than his last win. He was 2nd to Persian King as a 2yo and Tim Easterby seems to have finally found the key to him. He threatened to be a well handicapped horse last season, especially here when catching the eye when staying on from a hopeless position into 5th. That was off a 10lb lower mark and there is every chance he suffers the same fate here as he has been well suited by making headway on the bridle up long straights on his last two starts. Ejtilaab was over 4 lengths ahead of him in that race and is 3lbs better off in this.
King’s Knight
Lightly raced 4yo for Charles Hills who tends to race prominently. He’s only won one of his four handicap starts and that was in a class 4 Lingfield all weather race (3rd won since). He went up just 3lbs for that which seemed fair but has been raised 6lbs for finishing 2nd which seems harsh. It’s possible he’s improving enough to defy that but the yard’s horses seemed in better form the last time this horse ran. Charles Hills has a PRB in handicaps in the past 3 months of 0.59 but that’s dropped to 0.50 in the past 30 days. That's by no means poor form but it is a dip in form and since King’s Knight last ran Charles Hills has had twenty three handicap runners and just two winners at 5/1 and 13/8. Stall 8 isn’t ideal but he at least has the early pace to possibly get a good early position near the lead.
Azano
Was runner up behind Another Batt last time out, enjoying the soft ground, and although he’s 5lbs better off here that’s unlikely to be anywhere near enough to make him of interest from stall 12. He can be a touch slow from the gates on occasions and that would kill any chance he has of getting across from that draw early and the drying ground is against him too. Not badly handicapped but things have conspired against him here.
Hey Jonesy
The 2020 Wokingham Handicap winner hasn’t got closer than 6 lengths to a winner of his races in five starts since. He’s now just 1lb above his last winning mark but both his wins have come at 6f rather than this extended 7f and he’s surely being campaigned towards a repeat bid at Royal Ascot in a few weeks’ time. He can lead but more likely to be prominent from stall 3, especially with stamina concerns.
Mission Boy
He’s run some decent races since moving here from Italy during the winter but hasn’t been well enough handicapped to win a race and his handicap mark has only fluctuated by 1lb. If anything he needs to go up in trip on softer ground rather than down in trip on drying ground and it would be a small surprise if he had the tactical speed to land a serious blow in this contest.
Tadleel
Won a couple of 7f handicaps at Newcastle in the winter but was a big let down in the Lincoln Trial when poorly placed but not picking up at all. His best form has undoubtedly come on artificial surfaces although he seems to get on pretty well with Newmarket and York. His run style isn’t really best suited to this course and there is real proof of that as he’s finished 10th and 11th in two runs here off lower marks. Well enough drawn but plenty of question marks.
Via Serendipity
A better horse on the all weather but his split handicap mark reflects that. He’s won off a 7lb higher mark on turf in the past and certainly looks well handicapped again but his very best turf efforts have come at Ascot, unsurprisingly for a horse that is better on artificial surfaces. He’s raced handily in the past but tends to be held up these days and the booking of Jamie Spencer suggests those tactics will be employed again here. He was tried in a first time visor dropped back to an inadequate 6f last time out at Doncaster and he ran okay given the trip was too sharp, certainly suggesting he can win off this sort of mark over this sort of trip. Stall 9 and a hold up ride are pretty off putting here though and he’ll be more interesting elsewhere (preferably Ascot) on fast ground.
Alexander The James
Makes his debut for Mick Appleby having spent the first part of this year running poorly in France. He’d previously raced in this country for several trainers, often running on softish ground over a little further. He hasn’t shown much since September so a lot depends if Appleby can revitalise him. Appleby used to be a trainer to follow first time out when getting runners from other yards but he's had just one winner from his last thirty-eight qualifying runners according to the Trainer Change report. Appleby has had a further thirteen 2nd or 3rd places from those runners so he does still often have them firing. This runner looks likely to track the pace from stall 2 so has plenty in his favour if back to form and the market could enlighten us as to what kind of form he is expected to be in.
Gabrial The Wire
Owned by Dr Marwan Koukash so unsurprisingly knows his way around here. He’s gained three wins here and a further two places from fourteen runs, the most recent of those wins coming over this trip off a 2lb lower mark. He seemed to lose his form in August last year though and the fact he ran in September, then not again until November and then has been absent since suggests he’s had some training issues. He’s gone okay fresh in the past but form and well being are taken on trust and stall 11 is a big negative too.
Hayadh
Ran well off this sort of mark in 2018 over course and distance (only try here) and can be competitive off marks in the high 80s. Most likely didn’t stay when well beaten over 10f last time out and better judged on form at this sort of trip which includes close 4th in an average looking race at Redcar and a well enough beaten 7th when well placed in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. This trip is a little shy of his best though and he’s likely to be caught wide from stall 10 so whilst he’s likely to pop up in his next few runs it will probably be when his sights are slightly lowered and when he is better drawn.
Verdict
This looks one of those races where we're not looking for anything wildly well handicapped, it’s a case of finding the runner with the least amount of negatives. Another Batt looked good last time out but he’s largely inconsistent and seemed to improve last time for very soft ground. Boardman is capable of defying his new mark but he’ll do well to win this and Chester’s tight turns won’t allow him to make up ground on the bridle as he’d probably like which could leave him poorly placed again when the inevitable sprint for home begins. King’s Knight is capable but is drawn wide than ideal and could find several lower drawn runners also wanting to race prominently. Jim Crowley would probably be best off trying to get the lead rather than tracking the pace.
The ground and draw are going against Azano, Hey Jonesy is wildly out of form and probably won’t stay, Mission Boy isn’t brilliantly handicapped and will probably find this test too sharp, Tadleel has run poorly twice here before, Via Serendipity is well handicapped but is likely to be poorly placed and likes very fast ground, Alexander James has been out of form, as has Gabrial The Wire, whilst Hayadh is poorly drawn and prefers a little further.
That leaves a slightly unoriginal choice of EJTILAAB. He’s happy leading but doesn’t have to lead and he should be close to ideally placed in this. He can hold the rail regardless, saving ground, and the bulk of his form gives him an excellent chance of winning this. Richard Kingscote has ridden the horse twice, when winning at Chelmsford and when finishing 5th from an almost impossible draw here last time in that hot handicap. He’s run well on both starts here and even the drying ground is in his favour too. He’s not a bad price at 4/1 when you consider all of this, even if the bookies do overreact to stall 1 around here. The stable form is a slight concern but Ejtilaab did run well just three weeks ago. King's Knight looks next best.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/chester_strongpacebias.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-05-28 10:51:552021-05-28 16:33:11Ejtilaab Has Plenty In His Favour In Chester Handicap
More LIVE ITV4 horse racing this Saturday as the cameras take in nine races across three venues – Haydock, Yorkand Goodwood– with the feature contest the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock Park.
As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.
Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)
1.40 – MansionBet Watch And Bet Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m6f ITV4
7 previous runnings
7/7 – Carried 8-12 or more
7/7 – Drawn between 3-9 (inc)
7/7 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
7/7 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
7/7 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
6/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/7 – Won between 2-4 times before
5/7 – Rated between 95-102
5/7 – Carried between 9-1 and 94 in weight
4/7 – Aged 5 years-old
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/7 – Had run at the course before (2 won)
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Amanda Perrett
2/7 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/7 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2
2.10 – MansionBet Beaten By A Head Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV4
15/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
8/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Chris Wall
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
Just 2 previous runnings
Trainers John Gosden and William Haggas have won the race in the past
Trainer Roger Varian is just 3 from 48 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
3.50 – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4
Only 6 previous runnings
5/6 – Raced in the last 2 weeks
5/6 – Winning distance ½ length or less
4/6 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/6 – Didn’t win last time out
3/6 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/6 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
2/6 – Aged 4 years-old
1/6 – Winning favourites
Duke Of Firenze won this race in 2019
Copper Knight won the race in 2017
Trainer William Haggas has a 20% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Fell is just 4 from 82 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Paul Midgley is just 3 from 74 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 4 from 98 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)
1.55 – Casumo Horse Racing And Sports Betting Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 7f ITV4
No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 26% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker has a 26% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 4 from 81 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke is just 2 from 36 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Winners aged 4 or 5
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
6/6 – Came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
6/6 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
5/6 – Unplaced favourites
5/6 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
5/6 – Winners carried 8-13 or more
5/6 – Rated between 90-98
4/6 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
2/6 – Trained by Mark Johnston
0/6 – Winning favourites
Lucky Deal won this race in 2019
Trainers William Haggas, Mark Johnston (2), Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison and Lucy Wadham were previous winners of the race
17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
16/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/17 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
15/17 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/17 – Placed last time out
13/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/17 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
10/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 7)
David Probert has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners.
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
15/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – From stall 5 or higher
8/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/15 – Raced at York last time
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015
17/18 – Trained in the UK
16/18 – Had won over 5f before
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
12/18 – Raced within the last 2 months
11/18 – Placed third or better last time out
11/18 – Favourites that were placed
11/18 – Had won a Group race before
9/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Won their latest race
2/18 – Owned by Qatar Racing (2 of last 6 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Charles Hills (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Henry Candy
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 4 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 6/1
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-05-21 13:00:082021-05-20 13:03:14Sat TV Trends: 22nd May 2021
An interesting selection of live races this week and several appeal as betting races, none more so than the 1.55 at Haydock. This is a 7f handicap likely to be run in very testing conditions at Haydock. With rain forecast for most of the day on Friday we are almost certainly looking at heavy ground all round for this contest.
Here’s the draw data for this sort of field size in testing conditions at Haydock over 7f.
Not a massive sample size but it seems a low draw is likely to be favoured here. A massive fifteen of the nineteen wins in this sample have come from either low or middle draws. The place data echoes this with low draws having a place percentage of 31.88%, middle draws having a place percentage of 27.40% and high draws having a 21.74% place strike rate.
Given we’ve got a smallish sample size here the PRB data could be most telling. Low draws have a pretty impressive 0.56 PRB, compared to 0.47 and 0.46 for middle and high draws respectively. This metric suggests there isn’t as much between middle and high draws as the win or place data indicated.
With some sharp swings in draw data between low, middle and high, hopefully we’ll get a clearer picture of where good draws become bad using the individual stall data.
Now the first thing we have to do here is look at the sample sizes. Stall 14 has provided just one runner and stall 13 has provided just two runners. It’s pretty remarkable that those three runs have produced two wins which is in direct contrast to the general low v middle v high draw data but given the small sample size with have to take it with a huge pinch of salt.
That’s especially the case given the next four best stalls according to the individual PRB data are 4, 1, 3 and 2 (in that order) and the worst three stalls are 11, 10 and 12. The larger data samples indicate low is good and high is bad, for all it’s clearly possible to win from very high stalls.
There will have to be some debate about the highest stalls but there certainly seems no debate that the lowest four stalls are advantageous in these conditions, despite the tendency for the runners to swing into the middle or nearside of the course in the straight on testing ground.
Pace
It can sometimes be hard work making up ground when conditions are testing, is that the case for a venue that seems to have more than it’s fair share of testing conditions?
In medium sized fields here the winningmost position is held up but given much more runners have been held up compared to other run styles, this is actually statistically the least advantageous position with a place percentage of just 19.66%. So you clearly can win from a waiting ride, it’s just a bit of a disadvantage to be ridden this way in most cases. In fairness this is a general trend in all horse racing and Haydock is amongst the fairer courses.
The highest place percentage of 41.07% belongs to those ridden in mid division, whilst there is very little between front runners and prominent racers with place percentages of 31.25% and 32.29% respectively.
Front runners actually have a far superior win percentage, admittedly from a fairly small sample. The value probably lies with those ridden in mid division though, this run style has been profitable to back blind both win only and each way, as have front runners to a lesser extent.
It’s difficult to make a case for front running and mid division to be an advantage but prominent not being an advantage so the main takeaway should be that whilst plenty of runners that are held up win, they offer the poorest value and win least often relative to the number of runners that are ridden that way.
Pace Map
The pace map for this race will give further clues about what kind of run style might be an advantage in this particular race.
We shouldn’t have to worry about a steady gallop here with Ffion leading early in all his three races to date plus Lincoln Park and Sunset Breeze also being happy to make the running if need be. It seems unlikely they’ll set a searching gallop on this ground given the latter two are both comfortable taking a lead but they probably won’t make it easy for each other either.
Moll’s Memory and Cold Stare seem most likely to be the back markers in this contest with Gabrial The Devil, Redarna and Tom Collins also likely to be given plenty to do.
Draw and Pace Combination
This heat map is great for figuring out the best run styles for each draw, hopefully it will give us some extra insight here.
This particular heat map is made up from a relatively small sample, although by using PRB data we at least get a data reading from every runner in every race. For leaders a low draw seems to be a disadvantage whilst early leaders drawn in the middle perform well above average.
Any other run style than front running is a positive for low drawn runners whilst middle drawn runners from mid division perform well, much better so than those held up from the same draw. Mid division is seemingly the best place for those drawn higher to be placed.
Given the small sample sizes above I also want to take a look at the data including non handicaps.
Now we see fewer fluctuations in the data with a bigger sample. Wider drawn front runners perform well again, prominent racers have good PRB figures, especially those drawn low, whilst if you are drawn in mid division the lower your draw the better and being held up from anything but a low draw also looks a disadvantage.
The Runners
Here is the full list of runners, in early odds order.
Ffion
A sound starting point for this race given he finished 2nd over course and distance on heavy ground just two weeks ago. He looked fairly handicapped off 79 going into that race having beaten a reliable 69 rated yardstick on his previous run, giving that runner up 5lbs and an almost two length beating. That rating of 79 also marries up well with his debut performance too.
He was beaten last time out, and by 4.5 lengths, but the winner came out and won an 18 runner handicap at York under a 5lb penalty by a similar distance the following week so he clearly bumped into one on that occasion.
He’s drawn in stall 4 here, statistically the best draw of all, and his front running style is certainly no disadvantage on this ground. The one negative is perhaps the other pace angles could make him go faster than he wants early but other than that he looks tough to beat.
Sunset Breeze
Having looked well handicapped on his last two runs of last season he was perhaps a shade disappointing from a good draw at Ascot, not beaten far (3.75 lengths) but never looking likely to play a part in the finish. It could be argued he’ll come on for the run but Sir Mark Prescott’s horses have generally been running okay fresh. A simpler explanation was the ground was too soft at Ascot.
Now this horse does have a win to his name on soft ground, but that was off a 15lb lower mark with a winning margin of just a length against a now 17 race maiden. In two soft ground starts since he has finished 6th and 10th , whereas his two subsequent good ground runs have both resulted in 2nd place finishes.
I’d be keen to back this horse on good ground but I’m happy to oppose again on this ground.
Moll’s Memory
Certainly no ground worries for this two-time heavy ground winner, the more rain the better in fact. She also has wins on good to soft to her name and they came over 6f so she's not a slow horse either.
She’s looked in the grip of the handicapper in three runs this season so far but two of those came on good ground and the other was on the all weather (met trouble in running and did third best of the hold up performers that day). Those runs have seen her drop 3lbs in the handicap back to her last winning mark of 84. This is stronger than the race she last won though and stall 11 seems a slight negative for a hold up performer. With the ground now turning heavy she'll be popular in the betting having won both her heavy ground starts (off this mark and higher) but her draw and run style combination is a bit of a negative.
Tom Collins
A very hit and miss performer last year who was either beaten 7+ lengths (four times) or he either won (once) or got beat a head (once). The form of his win, in October, is very strong with the runner up rating 12lbs higher soon after and the 3rd winning twice since (admittedly on a different surface at Southwell).
A gelding operation and a switch to William Haggas’ stable seem two positive moves for the horse and in my Thirsk Hunt Cup preview, in which he made his seasonal debut, I stated that the ground would probably be too fast but he’d be interesting on softer ground, probably dropped in trip. Well here he is in softer ground down a furlong.
He's only 5lbs higher than his last win and although he finished 12th last time out, that was on fast ground, held up against a pace bias and he was beaten less than 6 lengths in a hot race, certainly running as if in form. His best form has come when held up and that’s potentially a problem here given his very wide draw in stall 13.
There is also a headgear question mark as he’ll be running in first time cheekpieces. The good news here is that William Haggas seems pretty adept at using cheekpieces his overall PRB in handicaps with and without headgear in the past five years is exactly the same (0.60). He’s a really interesting runner who will be wanting them to go hard up front to help him overcome his draw and pace combination bias, which is the most off-putting factor with this runner.
Cold Stare
Exposed mudlark who at the time of writing is entered at Goodwood on Friday but he’ll likely get softer ground here so for the purpose of this preview it will be assumed that he isn’t running on Friday.
David O’Meara’s runner has been in decent form this season, starting off his campaign with an eye-catching 5th on ground that was far too fast at Redcar. In three previous runs on fast ground he had faced fifty-three runners and beaten just two of them! He was beaten the best part of 7 lengths in soft ground in the Victoria Cup at Ascot on his penultimate start but he was drawn very low that day and ended up finishing 2nd in his group. He followed that up with a 2nd at Thirsk, dropped back to 6f on soft ground. The winner got the run of the race that day and the 3rd has come out and gone one place better since so that was a good effort.
The horse has a solid record at Haydock over 6f/7f on ground with the word soft in the description, producing form figures of 18912. He’s below his last three winning marks and if being held up is no disadvantage in this contest he comes here with a decent chance.
Lincoln Park
Pace angle that will love the ground. His effort last time at Chester, when beaten 13 lengths can be disregarded as he went very hard early to try to lead from stall 11. He’s a course and distance winner in heavy ground and his career form figures at this venue read 13752. Based on that 3rd, which came last summer, he’s handicapped to finish a couple of lengths behind Cold Stare in this.
His last win at 7f came two years ago and he’s arguably been getting quicker as time goes on (was placed over 5f last season). If he can repeat much of last season’s 7f form off a slightly lower mark here he is entitled to run well though but he seems likely to find a few too good though.
Raatea
A lightly raced 4yo who did best of those that were held up last time out (and he was given an extreme hold up ride so can be marked up further) at Newcastle, ahead of Moll’s Memory. He’s entitled to come on for that and looks interestingly handicapped. All his turf runs have come on much faster ground to date and this much softer going has to be a concern.
All of the dams winners came on the all weather or fast ground whilst the sire’s two best place percentages in turf handicaps came on good to firm and firm ground according to the Profiler tool. The sire’s runners also perform very well on artificial surfaces so it’s no surprise he ran so well at Newcastle last time. He’d be of most interest if running on the all weather next time but would also take plenty of beating in the right company on fast ground.
Silver Samurai
Well beaten last time out from a poor draw at Chester but in good form before that in two runs at a mile at Kempton. He’s still lightly raced and has won on soft ground before – that was a wide margin maiden win against none other than the now higher rated Sunset Breeze. He also ran well here on good to soft ground over a mile last season but ran poorly on soft ground at Newmarket in August. He was below par on his next and final start last season on good ground so it might have been more than the soft ground that caused the poor performance at Newmarket but given he won his only start on good to firm well it does seem that faster ground probably suits better. He shapes like the drop back to 7f might suit but his best form is at a mile so that’s another question mark, as is stall 12.
Stone Soldier
Archie Watson’s runner was progressive at Southwell over the winter, winning three times, but he’s one from thirteen on turf and hasn’t threatened in two turf runs this season. His sole turf win did come in soft ground but that was at Chester, a course where his best two turf runs have come. Away from Chester on turf he’s never got within less than 5 lengths of the winner, even off lower marks.
Arafi
Relatively lightly raced 4yo who landed a hat trick of handicap wins in earlier this year. The softest turf she has faced is good to soft and she was successful on it but she was rated 67 that day and is running off 90 here. She’s probably fairly treated off her new mark and this is definitely her trip but she was a bit below par last time out without an excuses and does have to prove herself on this ground. Nice draw though.
Lord Oberon
Was just ahead of Raatea and Moll’s Memory on his penultimate start (better placed than that pair) but he has a much better strike rate on artificial surfaces and wasn’t in the same form on turf last time out. His sole turf win came on soft ground at Doncaster when beating Cold Stare into 2nd and he’s weighted to confirm that form with his shorter priced rival, for all that run came the best part of three years ago.
Apart from that Doncaster win, his best turf form has come at Haydock producing form figures here of 228234. You could argue that he’s better at 6f as his last five turf starts at 7f have all been underwhelming but he finished 1st and 3rd on his last two runs at this distance on the all weather and he’s run well in two 7f handicaps on turf earlier in his career.
His latest turf effort was underwhelming but the ground wasn’t soft enough (only good to soft) and he raced away from the rest of the runners. If you can forgive that, returning to his favourite turf venue he looks overpriced.
Redarna
Campaigned over a variety of trips in the past twelve months ranging from this 7f to 10.5f. He ran well for much of last season, winning twice, but hasn’t yet hit those heights this season. It’s worth noting that his form first time out between 2017 and 2020 was 5980 and his second time out form during the same period was 1171. The season he finished 7th on his second start he won both his 3rd and 4th start. It’s therefore a little disappointing he didn’t improve on an okay 5th on seasonal reappearance this season as he was last 6 here on his second start after a break but that run came on good to firm ground and he’s generally enjoyed a bit of cut in the ground, for all he has a couple of wins on faster ground.
Lack of headgear may also be to blame for the poorer runs this season. For the past two seasons he’s won the first time he’s worn them that season and they are back on here. In two years he’s gone from being rated 68 to 92 thanks to that headgear so it seems significant it is back on here.
What’s really interesting about this runner is his record at this 7f in cheekpieces. He’s finished 1st on three runs and runner up in the other. Admittedly the first two efforts came off much lower marks and the two more recent runs came at his beloved Ayr (form figures of 1111241 there).Whilst possibly not as good at other venues the ground would have been fast enough for all those 7f runs and he is two from two on soft ground at all venues. He’d be pretty much unbeatable off this sort of mark on softer ground at Ayr’s 7f but he can outrun his odds massively here too from the lowest stall.
Gabrial The Devil
Not the most consistent but he’s versatile with regards to underfoot conditions (won on good to firm and heavy) and he’s also won at this course. All his wins have come at 6f and whilst he has run okay at 7f it’s generally been a sharp 7f and this will be a proper test at 7f so he’s opposable based on stamina as well as recent form.
The Verdict
Certainly not the easiest contest to call. Of those nearer the head of the market Sunset Breeze still has to fully prove himself on this ground and seems relatively easy to oppose. Raatea should be in your trackers for all weather races and perhaps fast ground races but he too is opposed on this ground as are Silver Samurai and Arafi who both have other question marks. The trip, in combination with this ground should also catch Gabrial The Devil out, and he too is opposable on other grounds too.
Lincoln Park has it in him to run well but he’ll have to be at his best to get close to winning this so although he’s not completely ruled out for a place, he doesn’t make the shortlist. Stone Soldier’s only appeal as a turf runner comes at Chester.
That means the winner is most likely to come from Ffion, Moll’s Memory, Tom Collins, Cold Stare, Lord Oberon and Redarna.
Tom Collins is really interesting and is the sort who could overcome all the negatives here if things click in the first time cheekpieces. He’s inconsistent, probably poorly draw and likely to be poorly placed given his run style. He also has to prove himself at 7f and in the cheekpieces so there are just too many negatives to get involved. He was also reported to have been unsuited by heavy ground the only time he encountered it, for all that was in his 2yo days.
Lord Oberon and Cold Stare are old rivals and are closely matched on a couple of older bits of form. They are also very familiar with Haydock's heavy ground too. Cold Stare has held his form better over the years and most of this season’s form gives him an excellent chance. Both horses like it here but Lord Oberon seems slightly more in the handicapper’s grip currently so at similar prices Cold Stare is more preferred from the pair but both could run very well.
Ffion is the completely unexposed one here and he’s open to more improvement. He’s completely proven in conditions and surely has to run well. He didn’t beat a whole lot in behind last time though and if he was a stone or more well in he would have made more of a race if it with the easy winner. At the prices we can let him win.
Moll’s Memory is really interesting on heavy ground and has a good record at Haydock so seemingly has every chance of making it three from three on heavy ground. Her price has been contracting on Friday though and her draw and run style combination might leave her slightly disadvantaged. She also doesn't have that much in hand of Redarna on their meeting at Musselburgh earlier this season and Redarna potentially has more scope for improvement from that with cheekpieces refitted.
Given the odds it’s the far more exposed REDARNA who looks the more interesting bet here at around 20/1. He’s run poorly in two runs here but both of those came without cheekpieces on and on faster ground. This trip on this ground could be absolutely perfect for this runner and he’s well drawn and tactically versatile. Paul Mulrennan is three from five on the horse (only beaten on good or faster ground) and the kicker here is the stable form. In the past twelve months Dianne Sayer has a PRB in handicaps of 0.55 and in the past 30 days that has risen to 0.67. Redarna has won both times he’s worn cheekpieces having not worn them in the previous race, including off this mark in soft ground. If he does let us down we'll recoup losses when she next turns up at Ayr.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Haydock_DavidProbert.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-05-21 10:49:222021-05-21 10:49:22Headgear Return Gives Outsider Major Chance In Haydock Handicap
The classic generation dominate the live action on Saturday with five of the seven terrestrial races limited to 3yos only. Those contests are going to be much more useful as a reference going forward rather than a betting medium this weekend so I’m going to go outside of the live offerings with this weekend’s preview, concentrating on the 4.45pm at Newbury. This is a mile handicap for older horses which brings proceedings to a close and hopefully we can make it the lucky last.
There are enough showers around in the lead up to racing to ensure the ground doesn’t dry out. In all probability these races will be run on good to soft ground so we’ll use data either side of that going.
The data points towards higher draws, towards the near side rail, being a disadvantage. The higher draws have an astonishingly poor win percentage (2.94%) and also draw percentage (14.71%) and most concerning is the PRB, which is generated using more data than any other metric, showing just 0.41 for high draws.
Low and middle draws are much more closely matched with PRB figures of 0.54 and 0.55 respectively. All metrics point towards middle being slightly better than low.
So if middle is good, and high is very bad, there must be a point where good starts turning to bad. To examine this we look at the individual stall data.
Stalls 7 and 8 both have an above average PRB yet no stall higher than 9 has a PRB of above 0.44. It seems strange that there should be such a huge drop off from one stall to another, after all they are right next to each other, but stalls 8 and 9 are not often next to each other…
I’ve looked at several bigger field races here and it seems in the majority there is a two stall width gap between stalls 8 and 9 where one set of starting stalls is connected to the other. In some races stall 7 is the cut off and in other races stall 9 is the cut off but this potentially explains why there is such a big difference – stall 9 is often the equivalent of stall 10 in terms of distance from stall 8.
They do sometimes race middle to stands’ side on softish ground here so there is no guarantee that higher isn’t the place to be but it certainly looks as though the middle is the safest place to be drawn. Friday’s meeting will tell us more about any potential draw bias on this sort of ground with four double figure field size races on the straight course.
Pace
A look at pace in similar conditions.
Not a huge amount of data here to go on and that is possibly why we see some contrasting data. The win and place percentage datasets both favour front runners but the next best option appears to be being held up in the rear. The each way PL appears to back up that front runners do best off with each way bets on the pace setters producing a level stakes profit of 2.1 and that metric suggests the worst value is found the further back in the field you go.
There is a less than 9% difference in place percentage between front runners and hold up performers which suggests this is a relatively fair track and any pace bias in the race is likely to be determined more by the individual pace setup in the race than by the course itself.
Pace Map
So here is the pace map for this race, taking into account just the previous two efforts from each runner.
Vintager is the likely front runner in this and the fact that he is drawn fairly high could potentially result in the other runners tracking over, negating any possible bias against those drawn higher. Kenzai Warrior may contest that pace from stall 5 but he seems just as happy tracking the pace. Path Of Thunder is another possible pace angle but he is another who is more likely to slot in behind the leader or leaders.
Now Overwrite may not be shown as a potential leader on the pace map but looking at the pace data instead of the pace map shows that he is very likely to want to lead.
He has led on three of his last four runs but was oddly held up on one occasion (which didn’t suit). That was two starts ago and the average of the last two runs in the pace map suggests that he’ll be more patiently ridden than is likely. The fact that on his latest start he went back to forcing tactics means it’s very likely he’ll contest the pace with Vintager and potentially set it up for the closers.
Up to 6 of these could be very patiently ridden so even in just a medium sized field, there could be some traffic problems in behind if the majority of them seek a run at similar parts of the race.
The Runners
Here is the full list of runners, in early odds order.
Blue Mist
Often well fancied in big races, Blue Mist brings solid course form into this having finished runner up both time’s he’s visited Newbury. He won at Ascot last season off a 4lb lower mark on ground that was probably faster than ideal and he’s had a wind op over the winter. He’s not always the most resolute in a finish and he’s looked better over 6f/7f in the past two years so there have to be a few concerns here.
Another concern would be the form of Roger Charlton’s runners first time out this season. In the past 30 days his entire string has a PRB of 0.54 in handicaps whereas first time out (60+ days since last run) they have a PRB of just 0.39. Blue Mist looks massively opposable in this and it would be no surprise if he is a sizeable drifter as time progresses.
Path Of Thunder
Returning from a 91 break having had one race at Meydan in February. That was a creditable effort, 3rd to Easter World over 9f off this mark. Given he ran so well off a 240 day break the absence since shouldn’t be too much of a concern. The 1st, 2nd and 4th from that race in Meydan have all run well enough since in defeat to suggest that was fairly strong form.
His (smart) form as a 2yo came on fast surfaces and then he raced just once as a 3yo, finishing 10th in the Britannia Handicap on soft ground. It was no disgrace to be beaten 12.5 lengths that day given he was drawn lower than ideal but that run still suggested faster ground would suit. There is wiggle room still off this mark but he’ll want the ground to dry out. He might also be worth a try over 10f.
King Ottokar
An eyecatcher a couple of times last season and highly tried in the past. As a 3yo he got within 2.5 lengths of the now 114 rated Sangarius and a neck behind the now 113 rated Fox Champion. He was also less than 2 lengths behind Kick On who is now rated 108. These runs suggest he’s well handicapped off 97 and so do some of his efforts last season too.
He was a big eyecatcher when 5th behind Matthew Flinders at Doncaster on ground that would have been plenty fast enough. He cruised through the race, hit some traffic and then didn’t find as much as looked likely on the fast ground. He improved again next time at Ascot on dreadful ground when running extremely well from a dreadful draw in the Balmorral Stakes. The first five home were drawn 10 or lower and King Ottokar was drawn in 22 that day. What is quite remarkable is that those two runs came off marks of 102 and 100. Because he was beaten around 5 lengths in both races the handicapper was kind to drop him a total of 3lbs.
He’s been dropped another 2lbs thanks to a poor run in the Lincoln. He was badly drawn again that day, the ground was too fast and he was wearing first time cheekpieces. Whichever excuse you pick it’s an easily forgivable run and the fact that the visor is back on here suggests the headgear played a large part.
He’s run twice at Newbury before, getting his favoured soft ground on both occasions. He won first time up in a maiden beating Raise You (rated as high as 105) and then he beat Dashing Willoughby (rated as high as 112) on his next run here. The ground can’t really be soft enough for this guy and although the ground may be a little faster than ideal here on Saturday he’ll still be tough to beat if the ground is no faster than good to soft.
Fantasy Believer
A gradual improver for connections, Fantasy Believer ran a remarkable race at Kempton two starts ago. He lost at least 5 lengths at the start yet still ended up winning going away. That took his course and distance record to three from four. He’s yet to win on turf but certainly handles it, he was 2nd at Goodwood on soft ground over a furlong further and he was also runner up on his latest start at Windsor on good ground, breaking on terms this time.
A stronger gallop here will suit him much better, as will a little more cut in the ground, but he’s up another 2lbs here which makes life much more difficult. Capable of running into a place at least, especially with some doubts about the favourites in this.
Plantadream
Having his first run for 156 days, this relatively lightly raced 6yo still has more to offer after just twelve career starts. He’s almost certainly at his best at Lingfield, finishing runner up to two next time out winners on his last two runs there. He’s rated 4lbs higher on artificial surfaces than turf so in the context of this race it’s best to concentrate on his turf form.
All his turf runs have come on good or softer ground. He was well suited by Ascot when winning a conditions race there last September and then found life a little tougher off this mark on his next two starts, still running respectably. He was runner up to Hortzadar who is a fine benchmark and then 5th to Ouzo in a big field York handicap, running well against a slight pace bias. Based on those two runs he’s entitled to run well but probably in defeat.
Repertoire
Only three runs in this country for David Simcock, having made his yard debut in February. He was an easy winner at very short odds in novice company and then flopped when trying to follow that up at Newcastle, well beaten. He was subsequently given a two month break and ran much better over this trip at Ascot, finishing a close 3rd doing best of those held up.
He runs off the same mark here and will appreciate the likely strong early gallop. That run did come on good to firm ground though and he was well beaten on his final start in France on heavy. The ground won’t be that bad but it’s cause for concern. The offspring of Bated Breath perform similarly well in handicaps on ground ranging from good to firm to good to soft but there is a huge drop off in performance on ground that is any softer so he’ll be easier to put a line through if there is any more rain.
Ascension
This is one that definitely wants rain, as much as possible. His best runs have come with plenty of cut in the ground and given that fact he ran pretty well on faster ground when a poorly drawn 9th in the Lincoln. He finished last on a recent start at Chester on softer ground through, reportedly unsuited by the tight nature of the track.
He’s yet to fully prove himself at a mile, although he probably stays it okay. It’s interesting though that a trainer as powerful as Roger Varian has just a 8.51% win strike rate here in handicaps. There isn’t a ‘Group 1 track’ in the UK where he performs worse from a win perspective.
Overwrite
A winner three runs ago, he ran as if in form when held up at Ripon next time but put in a much poorer effort in the Suffolk Stakes last time out. These Mark Johnston horses don’t need a second invitation to bounce back from a bad run so he’s best judged on his form as a whole. One of the most interesting bits of form he has here is a 2nd place (courtesy of the stewards) over course and distance, on good to soft ground against Tempus who followed that up with another win. He’s now 4lbs lower but he did get the run of the race that day and might have to work header, earlier here.
He has a good record at this sort of trip with cut in the ground, is well handicapped and is entitled to run well but he seems so much better when getting an uncontested lead so he could only be backed with any form of confidence in running if he does get that.
Vintager
Another potential pace angle that could scupper Overwrite’s chances. He was in consistent and excellent form in 2018 on a range of going types culminating in a 4 length victory over a mile off a mark of 102 (rated 99 here). He managed to grab a French Group 3 and a German Group 2 the following year but was less consistent.
He then missed 430 days of racing and joined the Simon and Ed Crisford yard. He won in France first time out but has finished a comfortably beaten 4th in all three runs since. A visor made no difference on the latest two efforts (not retained here) and he hasn’t run to his current mark of 99 in any of those efforts. He got the run of the race last time out at Chelmsford too but was still disappointing. He's clearly not the force of old currently but he hasn’t raced on turf for new connections and it’s possible he’s a better horse on turf. It’s also highly possible he’s just not as good as he was but he’s not without a chance.
Accidental Agent
A Group 1 winner at Ascot just three years ago and he’s shown glimpses of that kind of form on occasions since whilst failing to get his head in front. He was just under 2 lengths ahead of King Ottokar at Salisbury in 2019 but has to give 10lbs to that rival here so is unlikely to confirm that form based solely on that run.
His best form has always come at Ascot (last two wins there) but he ran poorly there dropped to handicap company in September. He’s been given a wind op and a break since. Eve Johnson Houghton has a PRB of 0.44 with all handicap runners in the past 30 days but that drops to 0.32 when just looking at runners returning from 60+ days. That’s as big a worry as anything else. This may be a prep run for the Hunt Cup, for which he'd be an interesting contender.
Alternative Fact
In good form last season at a mile with cut in the ground, producing form figures of 312260. It could be argued that his form plateaued as he went up in the handicap (finished the season on a 7lbs higher mark) but that might not completely be the case. He wasn’t far behind the progressive Danyah off this mark at Haydock last season on ground that might have been a little livelier than ideal and that piece of form would give him a chance in this. When 6th at York on his next start he was running behind a slight pace bias and was only a neck behind Plantadream. Alternative Fact is 2lbs better off this time around. Then at Ascot, just like King Ottokar, he was drawn too high to make an impact, although King Ottokar was 5.5 lengths ahead of him that day.
The negatives appear to be his very best form has generally come at Haydock (did run well here over a trip too far previously though) and more worrying was his reappearance run where he was beaten 48 lengths at Chester. Needing the run doesn’t cause you to get beat that far and the stable’s runners have generally been going okay fresh so it does look as though something was seriously amiss that day and that was just eight days ago. Last season’s form gives him a chance but very difficult to back after his latest run.
Kenzai Warrior
Roger Teal’s runner was unbeaten as a 2yo (beat decent yard stick Ropey Guest) and ran relatively respectably in the 2000 Guineas on his first start as a 3yo, finishing a well enough beaten 9th after a slow start. He barely beat a rival home on his next three starts though, all over 9f or 10f including a handicap run here over two furlongs further off a 3lb higher mark. He’s been gelded since but the fact that connections are now reaching for cheekpieces suggests they aren’t convinced by him. He could bounce back to form after being gelded but only his 2yo form gives him a serious chance here.
The Verdict
I’m very keen to take on Blue Mist here, preferably before the market reacts by shortening the other serious contenders. Assuming good to soft or softer ground the shortlist for this race has to be King Ottokar, Fantasy Believer, Plantadream and Overwrite.
Path Of Thunder and Repertoire are opposed mainly because of the ground, Ascension, Vintager and Alternative Fact are possible winners who can’t really be backed because of their latest runs amongst other factors.
Overwrite is opposable based on his last run too but he’s more the sort to bounce back with conditions and handicap mark seemingly in his favour. Vintager’s recent front running efforts came with a now discarded visor on and it’s far from impossible he’ll accept a lead from Overwrite but Kenzai Warrior or Path Of Thunder are other possible pace angles so the percentage call is oppose Overwrite, for all he’s a great early price at double figure odds.
So that leaves King Ottokar, Fantasy Believer and Plantadream. The latter is definitely not badly handicapped but he doesn’t look brilliantly handicapped on turf either. Fantasy Believer is a little more interesting. He’s in excellent form and should have conditions in his favour plus he’ll get a better pace to aim at than last time. He’s been slowly away on more than one occasion though and he won’t be able to afford a slow start in this company.
KING OTTOKAR is the one who really stands out here. His course form is top notch, he reacted well to the visor last season running well when things didn’t go his way at all in two big handicaps and the recent rain is definitely in his favour (even more would be welcome!). The stable is in good form and the race will hopefully be run to suit. The big question mark, and probably the only question mark, is his seasonal reappearance. He was warm enough in the market so fitness probably wasn’t an issue but ground on the fast side of good and even more so the first time cheekpieces (which have quickly been dispensed with) could cause that kind of poor performance. Given his overall profile he’s probably a poor bet to place so my preference would be to go win only. If he replicates either of his last two runs in the visor he should be more than capable of winning this and looks a more than fair price at around 6/1 early.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BettysHope_WeatherbysSuperSprint2019.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-05-14 14:48:562021-05-14 14:48:56Newbury Preview: King Can Conquer Mile Handicap
More LIVE ITV Racing this Saturday as the cameras head to Haydock to take in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, plus they are also at Ascot and Lingfield.
At Ascot, there are three LIVE ITV races that include the Victoria Cup, while it's Derby and Oaks Trials Day at Lingfield.
As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the LIVE races covered with our key trends and stats.
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
3.10 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton Hurdle Race) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4
17/17 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
17/17 – Had won over at least 2m miles (hurdles before)
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less
16/17 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
14/17 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Carried 10-8 or less
9/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Had run at the track before (hurdles)
4/17 – Trained by Evan Williams (4 of the last 7 runnings)
3/17 – Ran at Ayr last time out
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 14 winners returned 16/1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)
1.55 – Tote+ Exclusively At Tote.Co.UK British EBF Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4
14/14 – Failed to win last time out
14/14 – Had won 2-3 times on the flat before
12/14 – Had won over a mile before
12/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Aged 4 years-old
9/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/14 – Favourites that finished 4th or better
8/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
8/14 – Rated between 82-87
7/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
2.30 - Tote+ Pays More At Tote.Co.Uk Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV4
12/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Had won 3 or more times before
9/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Had raced at Ascot before
8/15 – Winning favourites (inc co or joint)
8/15 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
7/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/15 – Raced within the last 3 weeks
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The last 12 winners ALL came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2020 race was staged at Newmarket
3.40 – tote+ Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4
15/17 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/17 – Aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Had won no more than 3 times
13/17 – Had won over 7f before
12/17 – Carried 8-10 or less
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had run at Ascot before (5 winners)
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint) – only 1 in the last 11 years
2/17 – Trained by David Elsworth (2 of last 5)
The last 7 winners came from a double-figure draw
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/1
15/17 – Had won no more than once before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had no more than 3 career runs
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Came from stall 5 or higher
10/17 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (no winners, two seconds)
9/17 – Had only won over a mile or shorter in the past
9/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Having first run of the season
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Raced at either Newbury (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Winning distance exactly 6 lengths
4/17 – Winners from stall 5
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden
4/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
18/18 – Had won no more than 3 times
15/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/18 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (1 winner, Anthony Van Dyck, 2019)
14/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Drawn in stall 1 or 2
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
High Rise (1998) and Anthony Van Dyck (2019) were the last winners to go onto win the Epsom Derby
14/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Drawn between stalls 3-8 (inc)
12/14 – Won between 1-4 times before
11/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Had won over 7f before
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Irish-bred
7/14 – Drawn in stall 3 (4) or 7 (3)
7/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Non UK-trained winners
5/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/14 – Returned 16/1 in the betting
3/14 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 11 winners returned double-figures in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1
Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
3/3 – Unplaced last time out
3/3 – Rated between 85 – 90
3/3 – Carried 9-2 or more
3/3 – Won at least twice before
3/3 – Had won over at least 7f before
3/3 – Had run at the track before
3/3 – Aged between 4-6 (inc)
2/3 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/3 – Ran in the last 2 weeks
2/3 – Carried 9-7 in weight
2/3 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/3 – Winning favourite
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-05-08 01:00:362021-05-08 07:30:31Sat TV Trends: 8th May 2021
Some nice racing awaits on Saturday but there is no doubt about the main betting race of the day, the Victoria Cup at Ascot which will be run at 3.40pm and shown live on ITV4. Just the 29 runners go to post and we haven’t had much soft ground this season so there is every chance the form book gets turned on it’s head.
On the subject of the ground, it’s good to soft at the time of writing with 10mm+ forecast for late morning and early afternoon on Saturday so there is every chance this will be run on proper soft ground.
Draw
First let’s take a look at a possible draw advantage on softer ground over this course and distance.
Not a massive sample of races but some big fields so the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) should be pretty reliable. This suggests high (PRB of 0.53) is most favoured, followed by low (0.51) and then middle is worst of all (0.46). The Ascot draw bias can change from one side to another from race to race and meeting to meeting which is potentially why each wing performs better than the middle.
Every metric appears to reinforce that there is a bias towards high drawn runners here.
Looking back at recent runnings of the Victoria Cup, there was no race last year due to covid but in 2019 seven of the first eight finishers were drawn in double figures. In 2018 the race was run on good to firm but once again the double figure stalls dominated, producing eight of the first nine home. In 2017 the best placed single figure stall was 12th and 2014 was the penultimate time this race was run with cut in the ground and ten of the first eleven finishers were drawn stall 16 or higher. At this time of year it certainly seems a high draw can be very advantageous.
To add some balance though, the last Victoria Cup to be run on truly soft ground was in 2012 and the first four places were all filled by horses drawn 8 or lower, so we can’t be 100% sure high draws will be favoured.
Looking at the individual stall data it seems either very low or very high is often the place to be. Sorted by PRB3, which takes an average including the stalls either side of each gate, the top eleven performers are either 20+ or 5 or lower. Perhaps it’s just far easier to get a run if you are drawn on a flank.
Pace
Now let’s examine pace here at 7f.
This is probably the fairest data you will find over any course and distance, with no more than 3.2% between any of the run styles according to the place data, which considers more data than any other metric here. Racing prominently gives the best place percentage on this sort of ground (20.59%) whilst front runners do least well (17.39%). There is no surprise that front running is the least effective tactic here given it’s a straight, stiff 7f and we are only looking at big fields.
Both front runners and prominent racers produce a level stakes profit if backed each way, whilst mid division and held up produce a loss. There is clearly a slight overestimation of the effectiveness of the more patiently ridden types, who have perhaps caught the eye elsewhere finishing well.
Victoria Cup Pace Map
Given the even pace data we have, the pace map for this race could tell us which runners are likely to be most advantaged by the run of the race.
There is potentially pace spread evenly across the track but there isn’t a lot of it. Marshal Dan tends to lead and he is drawn in stall 3 whilst Jack’s Point (12) usually leads or slots in close to the leaders and Sunset Breeze, drawn highest of all, could take the high numbers into the race. None of the above are absolute trailblazers though and this race isn’t guaranteed to be run at a breakneck pace which could compromise the chances of those that come from the back or perhaps those who are better at a mile than 7f.
Draw and Pace Combination
One last thing to look at before we go through the runners. The draw and pace combination heat map shows us the best run styles for each draw, and the best draws for each run style.
It seems as though those that are drawn low are best off ridden as patiently as possible, with a very respectable PRB of 0.60 for low drawn hold ups. Prominent rides also do well from low draws but front runners from both low or middle seemingly do much less well than high drawn front runners.
Hold up performers drawn in the middle seem to perform a little below par. This makes sense as they either have to go through the most traffic or switch wide to get a clear run. Either way it's a disadvantage.
Meanwhile all run styles from a high draw overperform, with mid division or a prominent run style most favoured.
The Runners
In this section I will analyse the chances of the main competitors, whilst also pinpointing a few at bigger prices who might outrun their odds.
Acquitted
One I fancied to go well last week in the Thirsk Hunt Cup on the strength of his Spring Mile 2nd but he was withdrawn as the ground was too fast. To go over that Spring Mile form again, seven of the first nine home have run since and all but one of those has finished at least 2nd giving it a really strong look.
He’s handicapped to win a good race and the drop back to 7f here shouldn’t inconvenience, he’s a smooth enough traveller who has looked like winning a furlong out on a couple of occasions only to be caught close home.
There is a ground question mark though. He’s been withdrawn on fast ground and has won on heavy so most will assume he wants it soft. However when he won on heavy it was only a maiden and the jockey said he didn’t enjoy the ground. He flopped on soft ground here at Ascot last season, admittedly over 10f which was too far, but Hugo Palmer has also recently stated that he probably doesn’t want it softer than good. There is a fair chance this could be too soft for him in a race this competitive. Should be well drawn in 20.
Fox Champion
Back to form last time out having been gelded and switched yards over the winter. Ralph Beckett has a really strong record with horses he receives from other yards so whilst he could be expected to improve after 168 days off the track, that improvement might not be forthcoming.
He’s well handicapped on his old form and runs off the same mark as when a creditable 3rd in a strong enough handicap at Haydock last time but the ground is a bigger question mark for this runner than it is Acquitted. Fox Champion has run three times on ground that is good to soft or softer outside of novice company and he’s barely beaten a rival home in all three runs. Stall 2 could be a positive but also potentially a negative.
Raising Sand
Nine year old course specialist who has had fifteen of his last eighteen runs here. He’s arguably better over this 7f than a mile (last two wins have come over this distance and off higher marks than his mile wins) and his 7f record at Ascot away from fast ground reads 431410.
This will be his first run of the season but Jamie Osbourne’s runners in the past month that have returned from a 60+ day break have outperformed his runners who have had a run so fitness shouldn’t be an issue.
He has run relatively poorly on three of his last four starts though and it could be age is catching up with him. He did run well first time out last season in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 8th in a strong renewal and doing best of those drawn low. He’s also dropped to his last winning mark and has the useful Saffie Osbourne claiming 7lbs. She had a winner and a 4th on the straight track from two rides here recently. Potentially well drawn but might benefit from a stronger pace than seems likely.
Chiefofchiefs
A surprise winner of last season’s Wokingham here and followed that up with a staying on 4th back here over 7f in July. He’s now 1lb lower than that most recent effort here and although he has a mixed record on softer ground, he stayed on extremely well in soft at Doncaster in November over 6f proving he copes with this at the very least.
He reappeared at Doncaster in good enough form, getting a luckless passage again at listed level over 6f, looking in need of further or a stiffer track. Not badly handicapped and most things in his favour here but he’d want them to go hard up front and being drawn in the middle isn’t great for one that likes to be dropped out. He’ll need plenty of luck but is capable of running very well.
Motakhayyel
Winner of the Buckingham Palace Stakes last season so this course and distance is no problem for him. He followed that up with a win in the Bunbury Cup from Sir Busker, who has rated 9lbs higher since. He wasn’t in the same form in two more starts later in the season, not as effective over a mile but the distance not solely to blame.
Returned in good enough form this season when runner up to Toro Strike at Thirsk but almost certainly not quite running to his lofty mark of 111 on that occasion. He brings form figures of 12112 at 7f into this and should win a decent race this season but might not want it as soft as it ends up here if the forecast rain hits.
Escobar
The highlight of his ten runs at Ascot was a success in the Balmoral Handicap in 2019, beating Lord North. His only two runs here since have come in Group 1 company. He ran well on his last two course and distance runs, seemingly finding the test a bit sharp on both occasions.
He has been largely out of form until finishing 3rd last time out at Haydock. That race lacked depth though and he needs to improve again to feature here. He’ll be of more interest in the Royal Hunt Cup next month.
Jumaira Bay
Relatively lightly raced, from a powerful yard and lots of interesting form angles. He started last season with a close 2nd to Nugget, who is now rated 21lbs higher (Jumaira Bay is now just 11lbs higher). On his next start he was 3rd to 2 runners who have won off higher marks since and perhaps his most interesting piece of form was his 2nd at York on his third run last season. He was just a short head behind Brunch (now rated 16lbs higher) and Jumaira Bay is only 5lbs higher than that effort.
He didn’t react well to cheekpieces later that season but seemed to take to blinkers better, firstly staying on well from an impossible position at Kempton over a mile to finish 3rd and then finishing a close 2nd in heavy ground at Newbury over 7f, ridden more prominently on that occasion.
There is a lot to suggest he’s well handicapped still but it’s disappointing he wasn’t able to win a handicap last season, for all he bumped into some well handicapped runners. He’s been gelded since and sports no headgear here so is perhaps considered more the finished article now. He needs to go up in the weights to get into any of the Royal Ascot handicaps so should be ready to go first time up.
Keyser Soze
Won for the first time in over two years last time out over course and distance, mastering a well handicapped runner late on. He’s up just 2lbs but this race is much tougher and he was very well placed in that contest. He’s not necessarily one you’d trust to follow up and has generally been best suited by decent ground so any extra rain is probably a negative.
River Nymph
A difficult runner to weigh up. He looked a big improver last summer when bolting up in two 7f handicaps. The first came over course and distance and the second when beating two subsequent winners.
His form in two runs since has been far less impressive though. He flopped badly in the Balmoral Handicap in October and didn’t run well in the Lincoln this season either. On both occasions it looked more than the distance that beat him which is worrying. If he came here off the back of his last win he’d be a very warm order but for all he could bounce back and bolt up, he’s extremely risky in his current form. Conditions in his favour though.
Sunset Breeze
Some excellent form to his name. Ran Double Or Bubble within a head over course and distance in September and that horse absolutely bolted up at Newmarket on his next start. Then bumped into A well handicapped Tranchee (now rated 14lbs higher) at Doncaster. He’s proven on soft and over 7f but yet to prove he’s truly suited by 7f on soft, possibly a little speedy for this sort of contest. Undoubtedly well handicapped and probably well drawn too in stall 29.
Symbolize
He’s run well enough in three goes here on soft ground, finding the mile trip a bit far on his last attempt in the Balmoral Handicap. Nothing wrong with his reappearance when 2nd (well positioned) behind easy and progressive winner but difficult to make a case for him being well handicapped off a mark of 103. Probably well drawn but looks the type to finish just outside the places.
Karibana
Progressive last season and still room for improvement. Doesn’t necessarily need to improve as his last 2nd has worked out well with the winner and 3rd both successful on their next starts. Big field scenarios suit but he has never raced on anything softer than good, which seems by design. The sire was a heavy ground winner and several of his offspring have won on heavy so there is hope he’ll cope with dig in the ground. Richard Hughes’ runners have a PRB of 0.59 in handicaps in the past 30 days and that goes up to 0.69 if only looking at runners having their first run in 60+ days so he should be ready to go and stall 18 should be fine.
Walhaan
Runner up to River Nymph over course and distance last summer, beaten two lengths but not seen to anywhere near best effect. Ran well again here over a mile behind Tempus a couple of runs later, probably didn’t stay in the Cambridgeshire and then below par on heavy ground on his final run of the season. Capable off this mark but took a couple of runs to get going last season. It's also worth mentioning this will be his debut for James Tate, who has a respectable PRB of 0.5 and a win strike rate of 16.67% with runners making their debuts having joined from other stables in the past five years according to the Trainer Change report.
Greenside
Invariably runs well in defeat in these big handicaps. He was 2nd in a big field here over 7f on soft in October 2019 and then 3rd in the Balmoral Handicap last season but Marco Ghiani claimed 7lbs and 5lbs respectively in those races and now claims just 3lbs. He can run respectably again but difficult to see him winning.
On A Session
In good form in both runs for a new yard this year, 2nd in the Lincoln Trial and then 4th in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Was well placed in both but that latest run came on ground that would have been plenty fast enough. He’d have a serious chance based on his most recent run over 7f on soft ground and looks overpriced from a potentially good draw with the likelihood he’ll be well placed yet again.
Ropey Guest
Has run some good races here in the past and was half a length behind Symbolize in the Jersey Stakes last season. He’s 5lbs better off here so whilst Symbolize has already proven his well being this season, Ropey Guest has every chance of finishing in front of that rival here. He’s one that could outrun his odds from what’s probably a good draw having been gelded over the winter.
Cold Stare
A massive eyecatcher at Redcar on seasonal debut on ground that would have been far too fast. Below par last time out (again on fast ground) but that’s no great surprise. He’s run poorly over course and distance three times on fast ground but was 7th two seasons ago here on soft and that came off a 9lb higher mark. He won off the mark and it’s a case of the softer the better for him. Slight question mark over stall 5 though, for all it has a decent record.
The Verdict
Where do you start? There’s the more progressive ones such as Acquitted, Jumaira Bay, Sunset Breeze and Karibana, all of whom ran well on their latest starts. Then there’s the course specialists Raising Sand, Chiefofchiefs and to a certain extent Greenside. There’s also On A Session who seems to have a lot in his favour, but he appeals more as a place only bet than an each way.
Raising Sand appeals most of the more exposed ones. He has pretty much everything in his favour here, it’s just a question of how much ability still remains at the age of 9. If he can reproduce his 2019 form he’d have an excellent chance but there has to be a little doubt about that.
It’s possible the ground could get too soft for Acquitted and he still has to prove himself at this trip so despite looking very well handicapped he’s too much of a risk at the price. Sunset Breeze and Karibana still need to prove 7f on soft ground is for them so they too are reluctantly passed over, for all Sunset Breeze has won on soft and has gone close over 7f. It may well seem stupid to have gone against him once the race has been run.
JUMAIRA BAY seems overpriced though in this at around 18/1 at the time of writing. Roger Varian knows how to get more out of these 4yo handicappers and he demonstrated several pieces of strong form last season that suggest he’s well handicapped still. He’s interesting having been gelded with the headgear taken off. Ray Dawson has won three of his last seven races at Ascot, including one of these big 7f handicaps last season so that’s a bonus too. There have to be some doubts about stall 11 but Roger Varian did win the last renewal of this race with Cape Byron who broke from stall 10.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Barney-Roy.jpg311830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-05-07 10:36:282021-05-07 10:36:28Victoria Cup Preview: Roger Varian Fancied For Back To Back Success
14/15 – Had won at least twice before
14/15 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/15 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
13/15 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
13/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
10/15 – Rated between 90 and 96
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Having their first run of the season
6/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Irish bred
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 - Winning favourites
Just 1 winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 12 runnings
16/18 – Had won over 5f before
16/18 – Won 3 or more times before
15/18 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
15/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
15/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/18 – Had run at Newmarket before
14/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/18 – Aged 5 or younger
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Rated between 108 and 114
10/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/18 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Far Above won the race in 2020 (run in June)
Mabs Cross won the race in 2018 and 2019
Just 2 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Had won between 3-5 times in their career
14/17 – Won over 1m4f+ before
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
12/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/17 – Aged 4 years-old
10/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Rated 112 or higher
9/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Had won a Group race before
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Having their first run of the season
6/17 – Aged 5 years-old
6/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/17 – Returned 7/4 in the betting
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
2/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by Andre Fabre
19/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/19 – Had won over at least 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Group race before
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/19 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
15/19 – Won last time out
14/19 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
14/19 – Having their first run of the season
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
11/19 – Won by an Irish-based yard
10/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
8/19 – Had won over a mile before
7/19 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/19 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/19 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/19 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 10/1
Other 2,000 Guineas Facts
- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016
9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/9 – Yet to race at the track
8/9 – Won 2 or more times before
7/9 – Winners from stalls 1 or 5
7/9 – Horse from stall 1 placed in the top 3
7/9 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Horse from stall 5 placed in the top 3
6/9 – Aged 4 years-old
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
5/9 – Horse from stall 7 placed in the top 3
5/9 – Won over a mile before
4/9 – Winners from stall 1
3/9 – Ran a Newmarket last time out
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2
9/9 – Aged 6 or younger
9/9 – Won at least twice before
9/9 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/9 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
8/9 – Rated between 87-94 (inc)
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Won over at least 1m before
7/9 – Unplaced last time out
7/9 – Won between 2-4 times
6/9 – Winners from a double-figure draw
5/9 – Had run at the track before (3 won)
2/9 – Winning favourites
Note: The 2018 running was staged at Wetherby
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-04-30 13:05:122021-04-27 11:09:03Sat TV Trends: 1st May 2021
It’s been a good couple of weeks for this column, not only in terms of finding the winner but also in predicting which horses will run well or not so well. The Geegeez data has been a huge help, as always, particularly with figuring out which trainers have their strings firing first time out and which are needing a run. Don’t forget, you can get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1, just click here to take advantage of that offer.
The eyes are immediately drawn to Newmarket this weekend with the first classics of the season. As a punter that generally enjoys handicaps more than anything else the Suffolk Stakes, run over Newmarket’s 9f would ordinarily be a race I’d be very interested in. However there is a slightly disappointing turnout for the race this year and a much stronger field seems to have assembled for the Thirsk Hunt Cup, which will be run at 2.40pm on Saturday over a mile and be shown on ITV. Thirsk doesn’t often reach a terrestrial audience so let’s look at their feature handicap, with the help of the Geegeez Gold suite of tools and data.
Draw
A maximum field of 16 are set to go to post so any potential draw bias is likely to be seen to maximum effect here.
The data above reveals a slightly surprising disadvantage for lower drawn runners. It’s surprising because they are going around a bend, and the lower drawn participants should, in theory, find it easier to get a better position. However it seems that either the ground closer to the rail is slower, or the runners on the inside struggle to get a clear run. Perhaps even a combination of the two.
A low draw PRB of 0.43 is very low for what should be a pretty fair course. It’s not necessarily a case of needing to be drawn as high as possible though, middle draws have a PRB of 0.53 and high draws have a PRB of 0.54 so it’s pretty even between the middle and high draws.
The win percentages suggest a middle draw is superior to a high draw but the win data has the smallest sample size. When you look at place data, which gives us three to four times more data, the high draws narrowly beat the middle draws (place percentage of 27.78% compared to 25.77%), backing up the PRB data.
The individual stall data should give us further insight here.
The above data is sorted by PRB3, which takes an average of the individual stall and the stalls either side in order to smooth the curve. What it seems to show is the absolute ideal draw is either 11 or 12. These stalls of PRB3 scores of 0.58 and 0.55. What is pretty clear from this data is that a double figure draw is a big advantage over a single figure draw.
Only one single digit stall makes it into the top eight using the PRB3 data and that’s stall 7 which is obviously one of the higher single digit stalls.
Five of the six worst PRB3 figures belong to the lowest five stalls which is a big worry for anything drawn very low. Stalls 6 and 7 have individual stall PRBs of 0.56 and 0.55, which are good, so it seems being drawn higher than five is hugely preferable.
Pace
Will there be as strong a pace bias as there seems to be a draw bias?
There appears to be a fairly strong pace bias, favouring those who are nearer the head of affairs early on. There isn’t much difference in the data between being prominent or racing in mid division but front runners are clear best here with a win percentage of 10.14% and place percentage of 30.43% compared to held up which is clear worst with a win percentage of 4.44% and place percentage of 16.83%.
The drop off in performance between mid division and held up is quite remarkable. The place percentage for mid division is 23.48% and that falls to just 16.83% for held up.
In the same way you don’t want to be in the lowest five stalls here, you also probably don’t want to be amongst the most patiently ridden five or so runners.
Pace Map
The pace map for this year’s Thirsk Hunt Cup will help us judge how strong a pace bias there could be in this individual race.
There is unlikely to be a strong gallop on with just Al Erayg as a recognised pace setter. This means that the course bias towards those nearer the pace is likely to stand up here and coming from way back could be extremely difficult.
There aren’t many in the field that seemingly want to be dropped out in rear. Queen’s Sargent and Hortzadar appear most likely to be the backmarkers early on in this.
Pace and Draw Combination
The pace and draw combination heat map may show us that a low draw isn’t a death sentence if a horse is ridden a particular way and that a higher draw isn’t that great with certain rides.
The first surprise here is that despite front runners doing well here, this actually appears to be the worst kind of ride to give a front runner. Not good news for Al Erayg! There doesn’t seem to be much difference between riding low drawn runners prominently, in mid division or holding them up in rear.
If you are going to be held up, a higher draw is a slight advantage according to the heat map but not as much of an advantage as with any other run style. Presumably as they end up at the back of the field and on the rail wherever they were drawn.
If drawn in the middle, it pays to be ridden prominently with an impressive PRB of 0.61. Mid division is next best for the middle draws with front running tactics and hold up rides slightly sub optimal.
For those drawn higher, the PRB of 0.69 for front runners really stands out. Hartswood could potentially try to lead from stall 12 but he’s more likely to track the leaders and there are no other real high drawn candidates to lead so that piece of data may end up irrelevant in this race. Mid division for high draws also has a high PRB (0.60) ahead of prominent and then held up.
Anything drawn fairly high or likely to be ridden positively should be marked up in this.
The Runners
Here are the protagonists, in early odds order.
Astro King
Lightly raced 4yo representing Sir Michael Stoute. He only made his debut as a 3yo so should still be improving at a good rate in his second season of racing. He found the combination of 10f and soft ground too much on handicap debut back in October and enjoyed the drop back to this trip in November at Lingfield, winning narrowly but decisively. He resumed racing earlier this month in similar form winning at Nottingham off a 2lb higher mark.
He's gone up 6lbs for that victory, despite winning by just a short head, but there is plenty of strength to this form. The runner up, Finest Sound, won on his next start and the 3rd, Nugget, won the Spring Cup at Newbury next time out.
He's unbeaten in three runs at less than ten furlongs, has really solid form, looks to still be improving, is ideally drawn in stall 11 and has the ideal prominent racing style for a middle draw. It will take a big performance to beat him.
Nugget
Closely matched with Astro King on Nottingham form. He was slightly unlucky in that race but still only beaten 1.75 lengths and he’s 1lb better off here. He won convincingly at Newbury on his next start, being other lightly raced, in form rivals giving that form a strong look. He’s gone up 5lbs for that but certainly looks one to still be interested in.
He's fairly flexible tactically but looks most likely to be held up in rear or mid division. That, combined with his low draw in stall 4, certainly seems to swing things in favour of Astro King if deciding between the pair.
Acquitted
Another lightly raced 4yo, as you tend to find near the head of the betting in this sort of contest. Last season ended with a relatively poor run at Sandown in July and he was gelded shortly after. He returned in good form though with a 2nd in the Spring Mile, the Lincoln consolation.
That form has worked out well and a 1lb rise underestimates Hugo Palmer’s runner. Artistic Rifles, just a head ahead of Acquited, came out and won by 4.5 lengths. The 3rd home was beaten just half a length this week at Ascot whilst the 5th, 8th and 9th have all finished 2nd since and the 6th has come out and won. He’s handicapped to win a decent race but is drawn lower than ideal here in stall 5. He’ll race prominently which will help his situation but the draw has to be a concern, for all he should still run well.
Tom Collins
Inconsistent performer making his debut for William Haggas, having been bought for 100,000gns by son Sam Haggas last autumn. He ran well on his only start on good to firm last season but both his wins to date have come on soft ground, including on his last run when victorious over a mile at Pontefract. The runner up from that contest, Dashing Roger, is now rated 12lbs higher and the 3rd has won twice since so he’s perhaps underestimated by a 5lb rise for all he’ll face very different conditions here.
He's been gelded since and is bred to be smart and to improve with age. He’s well drawn in 13 but his best runs have come when held up which might make his task difficult here if those tactics are repeated. Don’t be surprised if he goes down in trip this season and he’d be very interesting dropped in trip on softer ground.
On A Session
Ran well on his return and stable debut in the Lincoln Trial to finish 2nd but that form hasn’t worked out well and he was well placed in that race. He has strong big field form from Ireland but in six runs on either good or good to firm ground he’s beaten just 24 out of a possible 87 rivals. All three of his wins have come with cut in the ground and if there isn’t much rain this could be a tough task.
Hartswood
Seasonal debutant for Richard Fahey who has a PRB of 0.46 with all handicap runners in the past 30 days and a PRB of 0.33 with runners returning from a 60+ day break in handicaps in the past 30 days, suggesting improvement for this run is likely. He’s well drawn in stall 12, can race prominently and won on his only previous run here as a 2yo. He also ran in some top handicaps last season, particularly at York, including at the Ebor meeting when runner up to Brunch who has since finished 2nd in the Lincoln off a 9lb higher mark. Hartswood is only 3lbs higher here.
He ran well fresh last year but the trainer form is a slight concern, otherwise he’s capable of running well. Assuming he does improve for the run, he’s one to look out for in the mile handicap at the Dante meeting at York in a few weeks.
Hayadh
Winner of the last renewal of this race in 2019 and 3lbs higher here. Improved from his seasonal debut last time when a close 4th at Redcar. He was well drawn on that occasion and that was a much weaker race than this. He often races prominently but has been ridden with more patience on his two starts this season, perhaps with this target in mind. He's drawn lowest of all in stall 1 though, whereas he won a weaker renewal of this two years ago from stall 10. Needs to improve to land this.
Jean Baptiste
Runner up on both starts this season, both times beaten by lightly raced and well handicapped rivals. He deserves a change in luck but isn’t going to be bumping into less well handicapped rivals in this and although he’s seemingly well drawn in 16, he’s often patiently ridden which might not be the best tactics here. He’s gone up 1lb for his two recent defeats which is fair and he’ll win a decent enough race soon but this might be too deep.
Hortzadar
A surprise 3rd in the Lincoln at 66/1 and then was unsuited by a slow pace and poor position at Newmarket next time out. He was 3rd over course and distance in July but that was off a 6lb lower mark and he needs to improve at the age of 6 to win a race this competitive off a mark of 97, having previously won off a mark no higher than 94 and being defeated in eight races off marks of 95 or more.
Queens Sargent
A steady improver over the years and one of the subsequent winners from the Spring Mile. He’s 4lbs higher now, taking him to a career high mark of 90 and on the face of it he’d have difficulty reversing form with Acquitted who was 2 lengths in front of him at Doncaster with that rival also now 3lbs better off. Given his run style, which generally sees him settled in the rear, you’d think he wouldn’t be suited to this course but his course record actually reads 2131. Three of those runs (including both wins) came over 7f and he does seem better at that distance having been beaten on all four runs at a mile. He was only beaten 0.75 lengths on his only course and distance run but that was off a 9lb lower mark in a weaker race. He might outrun his odds but he’ll be of much more interest back here over 7f.
Al Erayg
The likely pace in the race and he’s run well on two occasions here. He’ll be making his seasonal debut for Tim Easterby who has a PRB of 0.46 with all handicap runners in the past 30 days and a PRB of 0.43 with runners returning from a 60+ day break in handicaps in the past 30 days, suggesting he can be expected to resume racing in decent enough form. He also won on seasonal debut last year. Backing leaders here can be very profitable but Al Erayg’s best form is with plenty of cut in the ground and he’s never won off a mark this high.
Scottish Summit
He's already managed three runs this season and has run respectably each time, not beaten far in two of those. He has no excuses last time out and doesn’t seem well enough handicapped now to take this having been hit hard by the handicapper for a comfortable success at Newmarket last September. Stall 3 makes life difficult too.
Byron’s Choice
Making his seasonal debut for Michael Dods who has a PRB of 0.56 with all handicap runners in the past 30 days and a PRB of 0.51 with runners returning from a 60+ day break in handicaps in the past 30 days, suggesting he should return in good enough form. All his wins have come over shorter and he's 5lbs higher than when unplaced over course and distance last season. Stall 6 is okay but he’s very difficult to make a case for off this mark at this distance.
Global Spirit
Ran as though needing the run last time out at Redcar when behind Hayadh. He was half a length behind course specialist Queens Sargent over 7f here in 2019 and is is now 2lbs better off so he’s closely matched with that rival here, for all that form goes back a bit. His run style can be difficult to anticipate as he has been prominent and held up in recent starts but if he’s not given too much to do here he could definitely outrun his odds. He might not be well enough handicapped to place in a strong race like this but look out for him slightly down in grade, perhaps at York or Haydock. He seems to run particularly well around a left hand bend and if he fails to place here it will be the first time he has done so on good or better ground around a left hand bend on turf in seven runs.
Storting
Spent most of his career racing over further. He didn’t settle last time out when running okay at Newbury and probably isn’t badly handicapped. He may well find this too sharp a test on fastish ground at a mile though and he might not be ideally placed given how this seems likely to be run.
Waarif
Ran poorly on seasonal debut over a couple of furlongs further (has form at that trip) after a 531 day break. David O’Meara’s runners generally have been improving for the run season but after such a long absence it’s possible he’ll need more than one run to get fit and at the age of 8, after a layoff, he might just have lost his ability. He’d have a chance on his best form but there is every chance he’ll never rediscover that.
Verdict
Queen’s Sargent and especially Global Spirit are capable of running well at big prices but the market principles will have to underperform for one of those more exposed runners to win. I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off a place only bet on Global Spirit who seems best in big fields around a left handed bend.
Jean Baptiste could run well but his run style probably prohibits him from winning given others look better handicapped and Hartswood would be more interesting if he’d already had a run this season.
Unoriginally the three most interesting runners for this race are the three market leaders, Astro King, Nugget and Acquitted. The fact that ASTRO KING is so lightly raced, has such strong form, has a prominent racing style and crucially is so well drawn makes him a relatively confident selection for this.
Nugget and Acquitted have been done no favours by the draw but other than that look set to run well. The fact that Acquitted should be ridden more aggressively than Nugget makes him the next best for this and I’d have no hesitation in backing a forecast including both Astro King and Acquitted, maybe even including Nugget for a tricast despite his draw AND run style probably being negatives. He’s probably still well enough handicapped to overcome that to a certain extent, if he gets a clear run.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Wissahickon_Cambridgeshire.jpg316830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-04-30 11:30:242021-04-30 11:30:24Thirsk Hunt Cup Preview: Astro Set For Star Turn
It’sBet365 Gold Cup day at Sandown Park this Saturday while the ITV cameras are also heading to Leicester & Haydock for a couple more races – As always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends ……
Just two previous runnings
No race in 2020 (Covid)
Getaway Trump (Paul Nicholls) 9/2 fav won the race in 2019 Ballymoy (Nigel Twiston-Davies) 13/2 jfav won the race in 2018
2/2 – Winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
2/2 – Winning favourites
2/2 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Harry Fry has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 26% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Chris Gordon is just 1 from 26 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Seamus Mullins is just 1 from 31 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 1 from 30 with his hurdlers at the track
Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Officially rated 161-169 (inc)
5/6 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
4/6 – Irish bred
4/6 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/6 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/6 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/6 – Winning favourites
Owner Diana Whateley won the race in 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017
The average SP in the last 6 runnings is 5/2
Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won the race in the past too
17/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
14/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
12/17 – Rated 160 or higher
12/17 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
7/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourite
5/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (inc last 4)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won it 5 times in all)
4/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/17 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville (last 4)
3/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Moore
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
Altior won the race in 2017, 2018 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/8
17/17 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/17 – Had won over 3m or further before
13/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
10/17 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
9/17 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/17 – Won with 10st in weight
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
0/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 14/1
Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts
The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
24 of the last 29 (83%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 17 runnings (35%)
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
2.50 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 7f ITV
7 previous runnings
6/7 – Aged 5 or younger
6/7 – Won over 7f in the past
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Carried between 8-7 and 9-5 in weight
5/7 – Came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
5/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Winners from stalls 1-5 (inc)
3/7 – Rated between 96-100 (inc)
3/7 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by William Haggas
2/7 – Trained by John Quinn
Trainer William Haggas has won race in 2016 and 2017
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 36% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Charles Hills has a 24% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 26% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
LEICESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
2.10 – Elusive Bloodstock EBF Stallions King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 7f ITV
11/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Winners from stalls 2-5 (inc)
9/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/11 – Won at least twice in the past
9/11 – Had won over 7f in the past
8/11 – Irish bred winners
8/11 – Last ran 2+ months ago
8/11 – Officially rated 107 or higher
8/11 – Didn’t win last time out
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Hugo Palmer
2/11 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/11 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/2
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We seem to be seeing lots of small fields at the moment which aren’t making great betting contests but the 2.50pm at Haydock on Saturday, a class 2 7f handicap being shown live on ITV, has 13 entries and looks to have a nice shape about it from a betting point of view.
A fairly big field, going around a bend, so let’s first take a look at the draw in this contest.
Looking initially at the low vs middle vs high data, It certainly seems as though a low draw is an advantage over middle or high. The most important data here is the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) as every single runner in every single race is producing data for us with this metric. The low draw PRB is 0.53 whereas for middle and high draws it is 0.48.
Low draws also have the best win percentage but high draws actually have the best place percentage. This is likely a slightly quirk of the fact that we have a relatively small sample size of nineteen races.
Looking at low vs middle vs high is great for an instant insight but digging into the individual stall data should tell us where a good draws starts to become a bad draw.
By sorting this table by PRB3 we are combining individual stall data with the data from each stall either side in order to avoid any data anomalies from single stalls. The fact that the ‘best’ six stalls are the lowest six stalls is pretty telling here. However we should also note that stalls 11 and 12 score well enough to suggest that whilst a lower draw (bottom six stalls) is almost certainly some advantage, a high draw isn’t the end of the world.
Pace
Pace is another crucial aspect to cover over the 7f at Haydock on decent ground.
We once again have a fairly limited data set here so place percentage is going to be most enlightening for us in giving clues about a pace bias.
The place data tells us that front runners are most likely to place here, all other things being equal, and they’ve racked up a pretty decent 31.03% place strike rate. However going all the way back to those held up, there is still a 25% place percentage for the most patiently ridden runners. With a relatively small difference in results for the most extreme types of ride it seems that this is one of the fairer courses as far as pace biases go.
Prominent racers seem to have performed relatively poorly but there is no reason why this should be the case so it’s probably just a symptom of having relatively little data.
Pace Map
With there not being much of a pace bias here (if any) the pace for this individual contest is likely to have a bigger bearing on how much of an advantage early position is. This is where the Geegeez pace map can be particularly useful and a real time saver.
Potentially two pace angles here with Gobi Sunset seemingly most likely to go forward from his fairly wide draw and Marshall Dan likely to keep on honest on the front end from an even wider draw. There isn’t an abundance of prominent runners in this but Admirality seems most likely to track the pace with Fox Champion, Dreamloper and Duesenberg (if he can get across from his very wide draw) potentially slotting in behind Admirality.
Amongst those seemingly likely to be most patiently ridden and therefore reliant on a strong pace here could be Mustarrid, Dulas, Cold Stare and Sir Maximillian.
Pace and Draw Combination
Now that we’ve checked out the pace map for this race it makes sense use one of my favourite tools from the draw tab and that’s the pace and draw combination heat map.
Not all draws and run styles are created equally, both have an effect on each other. What we can see above is that low drawn runners do extremely well from mid division and much less well when prominently ridden. That could be a positive for Firmanent and negative against Dreamloper and Fox Champion if recent riding tactics are repeated.
Those drawn near the middle seem best suited to more aggressive tactics, be it front running or going prominent. The closer they are to the pace the better and that’s good news for the Mark Johnston trained Gobi Sunset is the most likely early leader and potentially bad news from Dulas, Another Batt and Persuasion.
Higher drawn runners do well by leading or racing in mid division, with prominent tactics and to a lesser extent hold up tactics resulting in lesser performances. This would be good for Marshall Dan if he can get to the lead and is a slight concern for Cold Stare and Si Maximillian.
The Runners
Here is the full field, in early odds order, most fancied to least fancied.
Dreamloper
Consistent, lightly raced performer for Ed Walker having her first run since 5th September. The first thing to check here is how Ed Walker’s runners have been performing first time out.
In the past 30 days Ed Walker has a win strike rate of 13.89%, a place strike rate of 41.67 and a PRB of 0.59 with all his runners, suggesting he is in pretty decent form. The above shows the same sample but only those who were returning from a 60+ day break. This now shows a 11.11% win percentage, 44.44% place percentage and a PRB of 0.61. Whilst the win percentage is down, we are dealing with a sample where one more winner would have increased that percentage dramatically. The fact that the place percentage and PRB figures are slightly better for fresh runners suggests there should be no issue with backing Ed Walker seasonal debutants at the moment.
So how does her form stack up? She’s only run once over this trip in a handicap and on that occasion he was 3rd at Kempton. The winner has done nothing for the form since but the runner up did win easily on her next course and distance start and subsequently went up 10lbs. She stepped up to a mile on his next start at Ascot and beat Perfect Inch by a neck off a 6lb lower mark. The runner up had looked well handicapped heading into that contest and is now rated 10lb than she was that day but she is difficult to win with. The 3rd home won two starts later (stepped up in trip).
She’s got a likeable profile and the fast ground will be perfect whilst she’s probably not badly handicapped. It’s slightly surprising to see her back at 7f though, other than for the fact she’s sometimes keen, and this is potentially a fact finding mission to decide if she heads for the Buckingham Palace Stakes (over 7f) or the Royal Hunt Cup (over 1m), although she’ll need to win in the next month or so to get a run in either. Likely to run well but might find one or two too good over this trip.
Persuasion
Charlie Hills’ relatively lightly raced 4yo was last seen finishing 2nd in heavy ground at Leicester, having started last season in the 2000 Guineas. He hasn’t run since October but like Ed Walker, Charles Hill’s seasonal debutants have been outperforming his race fit runners in the past 30 days. In fact his runners in handicaps in the past 30 days that are coming back from 60+ day breaks have a 45.45% strike rate at the time of writing which is very impressive and those winners have all been between 11/4 and 8/1.
The runner who beat Persuasion on his last start, Tomfre, finished the season with two wins in competitive Doncaster handicaps giving Persuasion’s form a solid feel, especially with the 3rd behind Tomfre and Persuasion finishing runner up on his next run.
The question here is the ground though. He barely beat a rival home on faster ground on his first two runs last season but one of those came in the 200 Guineas so is forgiveable and the next came when returning from a three month break, presumably having had an issue. As a 2yo he coped well enough with fast ground, he won a very strong maiden on good to firm at Goodwood beating at least three rivals now rated higher than him. If he copes with the ground here he’s a big threat.
Marshall Dan
Carried last season’s consistency into this season with a 2nd at Musselburgh three weeks ago on seasonal debut. He won over course and distance in September but that was on soft ground off a 9lb lower mark. He has form on faster ground too but he has seemed to improve for slower ground over the past year or so. The winner didn’t do anything for his last time out form when running next and in these conditions he looks more likely to finish around 4th or 5th than 1st. Drawn very wide too which won’t help.
Fox Champion
He's been largely out of form for some time now, although he did run okay over 6f on the all weather last summer before reverting to type back on turf on his next starts. His chance seems to largely hinge upon a change of scenery having brought him back to form. This will be his first run for the in form Ralph Beckett and he has a pretty amazing record in the past twelve months with runners who have come from other stables.
Beckett has won with a whopping 63.64% of his runners having their first run after joining from another stable in the past year. That’s 7 wins from 11 runners and if you were to ignore runners at 33/1+ that changes to 7 wins from 9 runners. Very impressive.
He's happy at 7f on fast ground so if he was able to bounce back he would potentially be a stone well in.
Gobi Sunset
Mark Johnston’s 4yo didn’t show much last season and was duly gelded and given a five month break. That seems to have done him the world of good as his form figures since are 2122. Those runs all came on the all weather but he won twice on fast ground on turf as a 2yo.
He has plenty of pace, he went off at a furious gallop over 6f two runs ago, finding only Dirty Rascal too good in the finish and Dirty Rascal won by 5 lengths on his next start. Last time out he once again found one too good, over 7f at Wolverhampton in a class 3 handicap. He’s clearly not badly handicapped and you can be pretty sure he’ll try and make all here. He’s been ridden by claimers on recent starts and perhaps Joe Fanning taking the mount will help ensure he gets the fractions right. He’s certainly capable but might just be vulnerable late on. Not a bad place bet at the very least though.
Firmanent
Consistent but ultimately difficult to win with. His best form generally comes at York but he was beaten just a short head at Doncaster over this trip late last season with a subsequent winner back in 3rd. He’s versatile regarding underfoot conditions and has often run well on seasonal reappearance. If he’s capable of defying a mark of 94 at the age of 9 it will probably be at York but he's entitled to run well enough.
Cold Stare
Twice a winner here and capable of this kind of mark but this horse wants the ground to be borderline unraceable. Having said that, he was an eyecatcher last time out on good to firm at Redcar over a furlong shorter and a repeat of that could see him go close but whether he can back that run up with another sound run on fast ground is open to debate. Certainly one to look out for when there is some cut in the ground soon.
Mustarrid
A wide margin winner of the same Nottingham race two years running but other than that hasn’t won since 2017. He seems at his best with plenty of give in the ground and although he does have form on faster ground, he also seems better at a mile. He has been outpaced over this course and distance on fast ground before and is likely to suffer the same fate again. Plenty of Ian Williams’ flat string are needing a run too it seems.
Admirality
A frustrating 7yo who has won just once in eighteen runs for Roger Fell but finished runner up on five occasions in that same period. He’s relatively versatile but is probably at his best over 7f on fast ground, his last nine turf runs on good or better at this distance have yielded form figures of 222133522. He won first time out two seasons ago but seemed to improve for the run last year. No seasonal debutant has even placed from this yard in the past 30 days from twelve runners which is a concern. He’s never one you can write off for a place but given the current trainer record and the horse’s difficulty getting his head in front he’s easily opposable for win purposes at the very least.
Another Batt
Had looked well handicapped on several occasions for previous trainers so no great surprise David Barron was able to get a win out of him on seasonal debut last year. That win was the first time the horse had even placed on good to firm ground and it perhaps left it’s mark with the horse not in the same form on his subsequent three runs. He’s run well enough on fast ground at this trip before off higher marks so can’t be ruled out because of the ground but we do have to take his wellbeing on trust. Stable are going okay first time up this season and not entirely dismissed for all he’s very risky.
Duesenberg
Taken well to Newcastle’s tapeta surface on his last two starts and was a winner over this distance last time out, getting up by a nose in a small field event. He’s 6lbs lower than when midfield in a good York mile handicap for 3yos last season but he’s often looked a bit paceless, despite winning last time dropped in trip. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he needs deep ground to show his best and he’s opposable here over this test.
Dulas
Was well enough thought of to start his 3yo campaign last season as 5/2 favourite in a pretty warm handicap but he was too keen and was well beaten. He ran much better dropped back to 6f at Newmarket on fast ground on his next start showing his mark wasn’t beyond him. He backed that up with another decent effort over 6f at Chelmsford, given no chance the way the race developed but making good late headway. He raced once since then, finishing well beaten and found to be lame afterwards. He’s been gelded since and seems to be the Charles Hills second string behind Persuasion. Wouldn’t be a big shock to see him run well.
Sir Maximillian
A second runner for Ian Williams and although he is relatively fit from racing on the all weather over the winter, he hasn’t run for 73 days so might need this given how some of Ian Williams’ are running after an absence. He was better than the bare form on a couple of occasions on artificial surfaces over the winter but never really threatened to win. He was in good form at this course last June in a hot contest and did win as an 11yo at Chester later in the summer. He’s going to find life difficult here from a wide draw but don’t be surprised if he gets his head in front again at Chester this season, a course where he has won four from nine and never run a bad race.
Verdict
This is a really wide open contest with some sort of question mark over most of the contenders. The only ones I’d be confident of ruling out for win purposes (not that they can’t run well) would be Firmanent, Mustarrid, Admirality, Duesenberg and Sir Maximilian.
I think Marshall Dan is worth opposing on this ground whilst Cold Stare and Another Batt would also prefer more juice so I wouldn’t rely on those.
Fox Champion is difficult to weigh up but Ralph Beckett’s stable change record gives real hope that this horse could bounce back. I still prefer to not back such regressive runners but if he wins we’ll all kick ourselves for not following such impressive trainer change stats.
That leaves Dreamloper, Persuasion, Gobi Sunset and Dulas.
Dreamloper would be a bet at a mile and should run well but dropping back in trip he’s short enough for me. Gobi Sunset has found one too good on three of his last four starts and seems pretty likely to run well again but won’t get an easy lead and is no more than a fair price.
That leaves the Charles Hills trained pair Persuasion and Dulas. Both are making their seasonal reappearances which is no negative based on the trainer form and both are well enough drawn in stalls 6 and 7 respectively. Dulas is an interesting contender and worth a win only saver but he’s already been a non runner twice in recent weeks which is a concern and he may well end up being keen stepping back up to 7f.
That leaves PERSUASION as the token selection in a fiendishly difficult contest. He was probably just out of form when not running well on faster ground last season having run so well on good to firm on his racecourse debut and his trainer is on record last season as saying he should be better on faster ground which helps confidence slightly. His full brother Qeyaadah, also preferred faster ground.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Haydock_DavidProbert.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-04-23 13:14:042021-04-23 13:16:47Charles Hills Has Strong Hand In Haydock Handicap
One of Newbury’s live races on Sunday is their Spring Cup, a big field handicap run over a mile at 3.20pm. This looks an ideal contest to get stuck into from a betting perspective.
Let’s take a look at the draw data for the Newbury mile.
There haven’t been a huge amount of big field races here in recent times so it’s difficult to be too confident about a potential draw bias. Looking at races on a variety of going conditions though there seems to be a disadvantage with the higher draws. Yes they have the best win % but PRB uses far more data and the PRB for high draws here is just 0.44, compared to 0.52 for low draws and 0.54 for middle draws.
Looking at individual draw data the five stalls with the best PRB figures are all positioned between stalls 6 and 12 inclusive. That suggests somewhere between low and middle is absolutely ideal. Stalls 16 and above perform worse than any others.
With relatively limited data on offer in such big fields it would be wise to not write anything off completely solely based on the draw.
Looking back at the last time this race was run, in 2019, five of the first six home were drawn in the lowest six stalls and the one high draw who ran well was subsequently proven to be 15lbs well in that day. The year before though, nine of the first ten finishers were drawn in double figure stall numbers.
Pace
Again we have slightly limited data on offer with bigger field sizes so we’ll have to take this with a slight pinch of salt.
The most telling data with a limited amount of races comes from the place %. Here we see 21.43% of front runners go on to place, 14.42% of prominent racers, 22.77% of the mid division and 18.75% of hold up performers. Overall that’s some very fair data and shows no significant pace bias at all.
Straight course races are often much fairer than races around a bend and any potential draw and/or pace bias could be determined more by where the pace for this individual race is drawn than anything else.
Pace Map
Here is the pace map for the 2021 Spring Mile:
There is plenty of pace on here, across both the lower and higher stalls. There seems to be a bit more pace higher than lower but we’ll probably see more runners end up in the middle of the course and there should certainly be enough pace on both sides to give more patiently ridden runners across the draw something to aim at.
Gin Palace and Bear Force One are also capable of contesting the pace so we could see even more pace from stalls 4 and 16 respectively.
Given the likely pace profile for this field it would be a slightly surprise if something doesn’t come from mid division or further back to take this.
The Runners
A look at some of the main contenders and those at bigger prices who could outrun their odds.
Troll Peninsula
Pulled clear with an odds Godolphin favourite on debut before winning his next two starts. Gave a short head beating and 5lbs to a now 82 rated rival when shedding his maiden tag and was more impressive when stepped up to a mile last time out, winning by 3.5 lengths. It’s difficult to weigh up his form to date given he’s yet to run in a handicap but the fact he has such a progressive profile for Roger Varian suggests he’s going to be operating off a mark much higher than 88 this season.
Danyah
Another lightly raced 4yo with a nice profile. He seemed well suited by softer ground last year and was 4th in the Lincoln a few weeks ago on similar ground to this, seemingly with no excuses. Nothing wrong with that form and entitled to improve again. Probably still well handicapped but would make more appeal with a bit more cut in the ground.
Matthew Flinders
An impressive winner at Doncaster last season and had previously gone close in a warm Sandown handicap. Probably found soft ground against him on his latest start over an extended 10f at York in October and gelded over the winter. First run of the season but yard has had a couple of seasonal debutants come out and win already.
Nugget
Another with a lightly raced profile and an extremely consistent one at that. He wasn’t seen after July last season beating Yes My Boy (who is now 11lbs higher) on his latest run last summer. A 5lb rise probably underestimated him and he emerged in good form last week when a slightly unlucky in running 3rd at Nottingham against two well handicapped rivals. Stable runners have generally been running to form first time out this season so not guaranteed to improve again but may not need to.
Raaeq
Finished just ahead of Matthew Flinders at Sandown last season and now 11lbs worse off at the weights. He was an impressive winner on soft ground over 7f at Ascot in October but paid for that with a 10lb rise. A smart performer but front running tactics over a straight mile might find him out here.
Imperial Command
Not quite as lightly raced as the 4yos ahead of him in the market but since joining Mark Loughnane he's won three from four, undone by a lack of pace and trouble in running on his only defeat. This is a big step up though and all his turf form is on very soft ground so he’s opposable in this.
Johan
Not obviously well handicapped having gone up to a mark of 105 courtesy of an easy victory when getting the run of the race at Chelmsford. Dominating here will be much harder and others are surely now better handicapped. Has won a decent race over course and distance though, albeit off a much lower mark.
Newbolt
Has found some consistency in recent starts and although Southwell form doesn’t appear massively relevant for this, he was beaten a head by Count Of Amazonia at Chelmsford in October and whilst Newbolt is 7lbs higher here, Count Of Amazonia has gone up 19lbs since. He’s won on turf previously and isn’t out of this at all, especially with Laura Pearson taking 5lbs off his back.
Revich
Outran his odds in the Lincoln when 6th and slightly better than the bare result. However this race perhaps has even more depth and he’s unlikely to have the requisite improvement to figure. Look out for him at Chester next month, a course where he has form figures of 1131 at distances of 7f+.
Gin Palace
Not the most consistent but did won off a 2lb lower mark last season and won on seasonal reappearance over course and distance in a race that worked out well. That took his course and distance haul to two wins from two runs. He can lead but doesn’t have to so will probably look to sit prominently here. He’s capable of outrunning his odds given his course record but this is much hotter than anything he’s previously contested.
Verdict
Given the profile of many of those at the head of the market it would be a big surprise if at least two or three of these aren’t still very well handicapped. You’ll probably need a runner that has at least 10lbs in hand of his mark to win this and that probably makes the shortlist consist of Troll Peninsula, Matthew Flinders and Nugget.
The Roger Varian trained Troll Peninsula is the one that could be anything, but the flip side of that is he could be badly handicapped. He’s probably perfectly drawn in stall 8 and this may well be the last time you get to back him off a mark of 88 but his sole turf run came on soft ground so he still has a little to prove.
Matthew Flinders will be suited by the return to better ground but a mile is probably the minimum trip for him and although he should get a nice pace to aim at, any rustiness on his first run of the season could find him out.
NUGGET seems to be the solid each way in the field. He beat a good field on Doncaster’s straight mile last June before probably not staying 10f on his next start. He then finished a narrow 2nd at Windsor off a 5lb lower mark in a race where the 3rd won two of his next three. He had several future winners in behind when winning at Newmarket and there was absolutely nothing wrong with his Nottingham reappearance where he was squeezed out with half a furlong to go when challenging two horses that would be amongst the favourites for this contest. If stall 2 isn’t a hinderance he should at least finish in the places in what looks a really hot contest that should throw up future winners.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Headman_LondonGoldCup.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-04-17 14:19:112021-04-17 14:19:11Nugget Looks Tasty In Newbury Spring Cup
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