Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 3.32 Clonmel
- 4.35 Wetherby
- 5.30 Chelmsford
- 7.00 Chelmsford
...the best of which looks like being the 4.35 Wetherby, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed trip just 66yds shy of 2m4f on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...
Whilst War Soldier was a winner last time out, the form horse has to be North Parade who comes here on the back of a hat-trick of successes. As a n 8-race maiden, Paddy O'Mahler is the only one winless in their last seven races, a spell during which The Four Sixes and Hajey have won twice, War Soldier, North Parade and El Jefe three times with sole mare Windtothelightning winning four of seven.
The mare won her last race at Class 3 before finishing fourth at Class 2 and then she fell in a Listed race at Haydock recently, but she's back down two classes here today, whilst Hajey and North Parade step up one level. It's hard to see how Paddy O'Mahler finally gets off the mark here, though, as he steps up two classes. His shortest margin of defeat over hurdles is 14 lengths at Class 4 three starts ago and I'm happy to write off his chances here at Class 3.
Of the eight still 'under consideration', only The Four Sixes has yet to win over a similar trip, but his two wins came at 2m½f and 2m6f, so the trip shouldn't be beyond him. He has, however, already won here at Wetherby, scoring over 2m6f at this grade on soft ground when prevailing by six lengths on Boxing Day two starts ago and was in the frame LTO over 2m4½f here last time out. The other two previous course winners, top-weight Windtothelightning and War Soldier are both course and distance winners from three and one starts ago respectively.
Feature of the day, Instant Expert, says that over the last couple of years...
...Windtothelightning, The Four Sixes, War Soldier and North Parade have proven themselves best under expected conditions here, whilst Ubetya hasn't tackled a hurdle for exactly 4 years since our last "leap day" and his recent form over fences (53PP) hasn't been great. Hajey has a reasonable record, but El Jefe looks vulnerable above. The place stats suggest that most of them should go well on the soft/heavy ground...
...but 1st and 3rd from a 2m4½f race here (War Soldier & The Four Sixes) have the best set of figures along with top weight Windtothelightning and if recent efforts are repeated here, that re-opposing duo might find themselves being at the head of the chasing group behind likely pacemaker Hajey (who sadly seems to save his best work for Catterick)...
...and setting the pace could well be his best chance of winning on his course debut...
Summary
If we look back on recent form, historical form via Instant Expert and pace suitability, two horses get a mention each time, War Soldier and The Four Sixes and this pair finished a length and a half apart here over course and distance last time out. The latter is technically 2lbs better off here, which could/would be vital but for a 3lb claimer taking the ride instead of the 5lb claimer from last time.
That said, today's jockey, Lewis Stones, is 1 from 1 on The Four Sixes, courtesy of a 2m6f win here two starts ago and I think that might just be enough to tip the balance. I suspect it'll be tight here, but I've a marginal preference for The Four Sixes over War Soldier. As for an E/W bet or even a candidate for those of you doing the tricast/trifectas, the market at 5.10pm...
...has Hajey as my most likely E/W option, but I think the bookies might have it right and that Windtothelightning could make the frame instead. In fairness, it's a tricky/competitive race to call with eight of the nine runners only separated by 5,5pts in the market based on best available odds.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
