Racing Pot Pourri

As regular readers will know I do a lot of research and write regular articles, including for geegeez.co.uk, writes Dave Renham. Sometimes though there are some ideas or questions I want to research but decide against it because there would not be enough ‘meat’ for a whole article. So, today I plan to put that right and will share some of my findings with you. Data has been taken from UK flat (and AW) racing going back to 2017.

Comparing a horses’ current handicap mark with their highest winning mark

In handicap races horses are given weight to carry based on their Official handicap rating (OR), or handicap mark. When horses win a race, the Official Handicapper will reassess their handicap mark and almost always the horse is given a higher rating. This means they will have to carry more weight and/or run in higher grade next time, the idea being the weight will slow the horse down a little.

Hence, I decided to examine the results for horses in handicaps that were running off a higher mark than their highest winning mark, the same mark as their highest winning mark, and those racing off a lower mark than their highest winning OR. Here are the splits:

 

 

This seems to give clear evidence that horses higher in the ratings compared to their highest winning mark win more often and look slightly better value.

Digging a bit deeper into those horses winning off a higher mark than their previous best, the age stats are worth sharing:

 

 

As the table shows, once the horses get to 7 or older their performance level and value drops off markedly. Hence older horses trying to win off a handicap mark higher than their previous ‘best’ should be treated with some caution.

 

Favourites and position in the weights/handicap

Next, I wanted to know whether the weight position within a handicap race makes a difference when the horse starts favourite. We know that higher weighted horses win more often than lower weighted ones, but the market adjusts prices well to compensate.

In the chart below I have split the results for favourites into three weight groups – the top three in the weights, those that were 4th to 6th in the weights, and those that were 7th or worse.

 

I looked first at strike rate:

 

 

As you can see, favourites that were in the top three of the weights have won more often than the other two groups. I had expected this, but I had reckoned on a slightly smaller percentage difference between the higher weighted favs and the rest. However, in terms of value it is the favourites that were lower in the weights that did best:

 

 

Those favourites 7th or lower in the weight position had the highest A/E index at 0.97 and losses to SP were much smaller than the other two groups. In fact, betting the '7th+ position in the weights' group of favourites to BSP would have secured a small profit of £114.93 (ROI +2.1%).

 

Older horses that are favourite for the first time

I wanted to see whether first time favourites aged four or older were good or bad value. For a horse not to have started favourite in any race aged two or three but which did so when four or older, I guessed there would be a relatively modest pool of horses that qualified. That was the case with around 2400 horses earning favouritism for the first time over this period stretching right back to 2017. Here are their combined results:

 

 

These are quite strong figures for any group of favourites. I am not sure what I was expecting but I suppose slightly poorer performance. Indeed, if betting to Betfair SP you would have secured a profit of £69.52 (ROI +2.9%).

It is also worth sharing the results by age as they are probably what one would expect:

 

 

Four and five years that start favourite for the first time ever have been far more successful than horses aged six or older.

 

Horses that wore headgear last time out (LTO) but return to track next time without headgear

In the past I have researched horses that have worn different types of headgear. So what about horses that wore headgear LTO, but had it taken off on their next start? Here are the figures:

 

 

Nothing earth shattering here, but after some further digging, I did discover something that I thought was worth sharing. It is the stats for horses that won LTO in headgear, but then had it removed for their next start. This idea is a little alien to me as I am guessing it is to many – why would you remove the headgear if it clearly has worked LTO? However, it has happened 444 times and of these only 65 managed to repeat the win and you would have lost a whopping 31 pence in the £ if backing them.

 

Horses switching from a Grade 1 track to the all-weather

I had assumed that horses that were racing on the sand who had run last time at one of top tracks would do quite well. I guessed they would possibly be overbet, but by how much?

 

 

As you can see the strike rate is acceptable but when viewed as a whole the returns are poor. These horses do indeed look overbet. However, I have gone further and looked at some of the top trainers to see how their charges have fared. Here are the trainers with the highest win strike rates:

 

 

There are some strong figures here for many trainers – John and Thady Gosden, Saeed bin Suroor and Roger Varian have done especially well with these runners. Also, Hugo Palmer, (Roger and) Harry Charlton and Richard Hughes have very positive stats too.

 

Revisiting Price Movement from Opening Show to SP

In a recent article I examined some data pertaining to price movements between the opening show and the final SP. In the comments a question was raised about trainers who have low career strike rates asking if their horses shorten in price during that 10-minute period before the off will they produce a fair-sized loss to the pound? They were wondering if this could become a possible lay angle? So I took a look.

My database allowed me to check trainers whose overall win strike rate in the past two seasons had been 7% or less – so the lower end of the trainer spectrum in terms of win success. Firstly, I wanted to check what proportion of their runners shortened in price between opening show and SP. The graph below shows the splits:

 

 

This pattern was seen in the main article with more horses drifting. Focusing in on those that shortened in price, here are the overall results for all qualifiers:

 

There is a lowish strike rate and relatively poor returns to SP and BSP. Having said that, these runners would have lost you money if you tried to lay them. However, horses that started favourite having been backed late have some ‘lay’ potential. Lay profits quoted below are based on a simple £1 a lay method:

- Favourites, including joints, won 547 from 2059 runners for a BSP loss of 7.43%. If laying all such favourites you would have made a tiny £6 profit. If you restricted it to handicaps, favourites could have been ‘layed’ to a profit of £39.

- Trainers who have not had a winner in the previous two weeks have a poor record with these ‘shorteners’. This is particularly true when the horse has started favourite. There have been 1184 qualifiers of which 24.5% of them won (290 runners). If laying all 1184 runners you would have made a profit of £75.77.

- Favourites priced 2/1 or shorter would have provided a lay profit of £34.98.

- Fillies and mares when favourite have a poor record when their price has shortened. Of the 514 qualifiers 121 won (SR 23.5%) and laying all such runners would have yielded a profit of £59.28.

 

It is always nice to get feedback and questions in the comments section under my articles and it will be interesting to see if this piece sparks any interesting responses.

 

Losing favourites on debut

Horses on debut are an unknown quantity. Yes, we know who the trainer is, we have sire data to look at, the cost as a yearling, future entries, etc. But we are still somewhat in the dark. Horses that lose on debut when favourite are a group of horses I wanted to dig a bit deeper into.

Looking at their second starts after their debut loss, their figures read:

 

 

Despite a fair strike rate losses are still relatively steep at nearly 18p in the £. However, there are a few angles both positive and negative that I’d like to share with you.

1. Horses that were beaten favourite at Ascot on debut have bounced back well on their next start winning 10 of 25 (SR 40%) for a profit of £10.97 (ROI 43.9%).

2. Beaten favs on debut when dropped in class for their second career start have done well. 90 wins from 252 runners (SR 35.7%) for an SP profit of £11.27 (ROI +4.5%). To BSP the figures improve to +£34.42 (ROI +13.7%).

3. If the second start happens to be on an all weather surface, these runners have broken even to SP. To BSP profits stand at £41.56 (ROI +10.5%).

4. Horses that finished second on debut when favourite have been poor investments next time. They have won 33% of the time (111 from 336) but losses were a steep £89.59 (ROI -26.7%). You would have made a profit of £55.65 if laying these runners to BSP instead of backing them.

 

Onto to my final port of call.

 

Horse changing stables

Horses change stables from time to time for a variety of reasons. Maybe the owner has moved location, maybe the performances have been below par and owner wants to try a different trainer and training environment. Occasionally horses switch after racing in sellers or claimers.

Let's therefore look at the first run results when sent to a new trainer. Does any yard do particularly well with new recruits? Here are all the trainers who have had 100 or more qualifiers:

 

 

Archie Watson’s figures are superb while Kevin Phillipart de Foy's and Mick Appleby’s stats are also extremely decent. Keep an eye out for Hollie Doyle riding one of Watson’s new recruits. When she takes the ride, their combined record is outstanding – 17 wins from 48 (SR 35.4%) for a profit of £66.51 (ROI +138.6%).

Mick Appleby has done well with a small group of 2yo new recruits winning 8 from 28 (SR 28.6%) for a profit of £37.71 (ROI +134.7%). He has also done well with runners over shorter distances. Sticking to 5f to 1-mile races only his record with new recruits reads 54 wins from 261 (SR 20.7%) for a healthy SP profit of £76.25 (ROI +29.2%).

 

So, there you have it. Hopefully there has been a bit for everyone here. There are certainly a few worthwhile takeaways for backers and layers alike.

- DR

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Seeking Value with Female Flat Jockeys
• Early Odds to Opening Odds to Starting Price
• Non-handicap juveniles in late turf season
• Price Movement from Opening Show
• Examining the Final Market Rank of Morning Favourites